Subject: Great Expectations From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 10:32:53 (EST) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: 'The bitterness behind the show - that's where spoilt children go' November 1, 2005 Feeling Rich By Robert J. Shiller Who is richer, you or I? As long as we both have enough to live comfortably, it shouldn’t matter much. Many of us try not to let it matter. But sometimes such comparisons gnaw at us. In an era of globalization, with rapid economic growth in some areas and stagnation in others – and with television and the internet allowing us to see how others live – these comparisons are an increasingly important factor in the world economy. The late social psychologist Leon Festinger argued that interpersonal comparisons of success, whatever our moral qualms about them, constitute a fundamental – and thus irrepressible – human drive, one that is present in every society and all social groups. Festinger argued that for any measure of success, whether wealth, ability, or merely personal charm, people tend to be most concerned about comparisons with others whom they see regularly and who are at a similar level of attainment. We tend not to be bothered by people who are either vastly more successful or vastly less successful. We consider them so different from us that we just don’t care. Harvard professor Benjamin Friedman’s important new book The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth details what the feelings generated by these comparisons mean for social harmony and the success of our economies. Friedman argues that comparisons of wealth are more dangerous to a society if it appears that the rich are members of a different race or ethnic group. In that case, the comparisons become politicized, contributing to social conflict and thus tending to reduce economic success. For example, South Korea’s spectacular economic growth in recent decades owes much, according to Friedman, to the country’s ethnic homogeneity, which dampens resentment of others’ relative progress. By contrast, economic development in Sri Lanka, with a standard of living 40 years ago that was similar to that of Korea, was stymied by its Tamil minority’s perception that their opportunities and advancement were blocked by the Sinhalese majority. The resulting ethnic violence has left real per capita income at just one-fifth the level of Korea today. The economist Albert Hirschman once likened a society with recognizably distinct groups to a multilane highway where people are unable to change lanes. If traffic is stalled for hours and no one else is making progress, we tend to relax and accept the situation resignedly. If the traffic then starts moving in another lane, everyone will greet the change with elation. Even if we are still stopped, we sympathize with those getting ahead, imagining that we, too, will soon be moving forward. But if the other lane keeps moving and we do not, our elation is eventually replaced by annoyance and anger. The same is true of economies that are starting to grow rapidly. People must feel that their own social group, however they define it, will eventually benefit. A key insight in Friedman’s book is the fundamental importance of two kinds of comparisons that people make when judging their own success: comparisons with their own (or their own family’s) past experience and comparisons with others that they see around them. When economic growth falters and people no longer see improvement over their past experience, the first comparison becomes more important – and comes to be shared by millions of people. But when the downturn affects distinct groups differently, especially when members of some groups are (rightly or wrongly) perceived as doing better than the others, the second comparison gains significance as well. Consider the rampant anti-Semitism – some of it ultimately genocidal – that arose during the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Of course, that is the most extreme example, and Friedman does not show that a decline in economic growth rates necessarily leads to social turmoil. Indeed, many historical episodes of diminished or even negative growth have gone by without any unusual social problems. Historical forces are complex; they defy any simple economic theory. Friedman is right that social comparison drives human anxieties, if not conflict, but this is equally true when economies are growing. In some parts of the world, rising expectations, if unfulfilled, could make the kinds of effects that Friedman describes especially strong. For example, many people in China today feel great psychological pressure to live up to the expectations created by all the talk about their country’s “economic miracle” – and the sight of others in their midst with significant wealth – and they express anxiety about their own individual success. As growth and development in emerging economies like China continues, people will increasingly compare themselves to the richer people in their countries’ urban centers. These countries’ successful people will increasingly compare themselves to people in other countries who are perceived as even more successful. If Festinger and Friedman are right, little can be done about this, because such comparisons are a part of human nature. But, regardless of whether these comparisons occur in an economy that is growing or contracting, the anxiety that they engender clearly represents a potential risk of unrest and instability. So the question is whether anything can be done to minimize that risk. Obviously, a measured pace of economic growth in the developing world – neither so high that it sets the stage for later collapse nor so low that it weakens the public’s sense of solid progress towards a better life – would help ensure social and political stability, thereby fostering further growth. But, perhaps more importantly, people must believe that they live in a society that allows them to change lanes and move ahead faster when the route is clear. Robert J. Shiller is Professor of Economics at Yale University, Director at Macro Securities Research LLC, and author of Irrational Exuberance and The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/PS-11_1_05_RS.html

Subject: Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it... From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 10:18:14 (EST) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: For whom America’s bell tolls J BRADFORD DELONG These days the chairman of President Bush’s council of economic advisers, Ben Bernanke, likes to talk about a “global savings glut” that has produced astonishingly low real interest rates around the world. But that is the wrong way to look at it. America certainly does not have a savings glut. Its savings rate has been distressingly low for decades. Then the Bush administration’s reckless fiscal policy pushed it lower. Falling interest rates in recent years pushed up real estate prices and allowed America’s upper middle class to treat their houses as enormous ATM’s, lowering savings still more. America has a savings deficiency, not a glut. And the rest of the world? A global savings glut would suggest that rebalancing the world economy requires policies to boost America’s savings rate and to increase non-US household consumption. But what the world economy is facing is not a savings glut, but an investment deficiency. Divide the world into three zones: the US, China, and all the rest. Since the mid-’90s, the net current-account surplus of “all the rest” has risen by an amount that one Federal Reserve Bank economist has put at $450 billion a year, not because savings rates have increased, but because investment rates have fallen. Declining investment rates in Japan, the newly-industrialising Asian economies, and Latin America, in that order of importance, have fuelled the flood of savings into US government bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, and US equity-backed loans — the capital-account equivalent of America’s enormous trade deficit. The investment deficiency in Asia relative to rates of a decade ago amounts to an annual shortfall of $400 billion a year, with the decline in investment in Japan— a consequence of more than a decade of economic stagnation — accounting for more than half of the total. Moreover, investment rates in the newly industrialised economies of Asia have never recovered to their pre-1997-8 crisis levels, and investment rates in the rest of Asia outside China have fallen off as well. This would seem to call for a very different set of policies to rebalance the world economy. Yes, the US needs tax hikes to move the federal budget into surplus and policies to boost private savings. But the world needs policies to boost investment in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. And here we face a difficulty. People like me who have been cheerleaders for international integration in trade and finance, as well as for reductions in tariffs and other barriers, have cited three benefits: -Maximising economic — and also social and cultural — contact between rich and poor nations is the best way we can think of to aid the flow of knowledge about technology and organisation, which is the last best hope for rapid world development. -Lower trade barriers will make locating production in the poor low-wage parts of the world irresistible to those who have access to finance. -Freer capital flows will give poor countries precisely this access, as the greed of investors in rich country leads them to venture into poor regions where capital is scarce. The first reason still holds true. Maximising economic, social, and cultural contact between rich and poor remains both the best way to aid the knowledge flow and the last best hope for rapid world development. But the second and third reasons look shaky. Those with access to finance appear to be capable of resisting the urge to locate production in poor low-wage parts of the world (China aside). Rather than leading rich-country savers to invest their money in poor countries out of greed, liberalisation of capital flows has led poor-country savers to park their money in rich countries out of fear — fear of political instability, macreconomic disturbances, and deficient institutions. Something may well happen in the next several years to radically boost America’s savings rate by making US households feel suddenly poor: tax increases, a real estate crash, rapidly-rising import prices caused by a plummeting dollar, a deep recession, or more than one of the above. It would be nice to believe that when the tide of dollar-denominated securities ebbs, the flows of finance currently directed at America will smoothly shift course and boost investment in Asia. But don’t count on it, especially considering the share of marginal investment in Asia that is aimed, one way or another, at exporting to the American market. Those outside America, especially in Asia, should regard the unstable state of the US macro-economy with grave concern. As the seventeenth-century poet John Donne put it, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls — it tolls for thee.” http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-1281887,curpg-4.cms

Subject: Foreign Student Enrollment Drops From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 09:44:16 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/education/14enroll.html November 14, 2005 Foreign Student Enrollment Drops By ALAN FINDER The number of foreign students enrolled in American universities declined slightly in the 2004-5 academic year, according to a survey to be released today, suggesting that a more significant drop that took place in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in 2001 might be abating. About 565,000 students from foreign countries were studying in undergraduate and graduate programs at American universities, a decline of 1 percent from the previous academic year, according to an annual survey by the Institute of International Education that was financed by the State Department. A survey released by the organization last year showed that foreign student enrollment had declined by 2.4 percent in the 2003-4 academic year, the first decrease in foreign students in three decades. A related survey released last week by the Council of Graduate Schools showed that the number of international students entering American graduate schools increased 1 percent this year. The report was based on a survey of a sample of graduate institutions. University officials have offered several reasons for the drop in foreign students after 2001, including difficulties students have experienced in obtaining visas, especially in scientific and technical fields, and the increased cost of tuition. There has also been more competition from universities in Britain, Australia and New Zealand, as well as a significant expansion in the capacity of universities in India and China. India, with more than 80,000 students, and China, with more than 62,000, send the largest number of students to American universities, the Institute of International Education survey found. Many students from South Korea, Japan, Canada and Taiwan are also enrolled here. A growing number of American students are studying abroad, the institute also reported. The number increased 9.6 percent in the 2003-4 academic year, the institute found, after growing by 8.5 percent the previous year. More than 191,000 Americans are studying for academic credit in international universities, with notable increases in China and India. Foreign students in the United States spend about $13.3 billion in tuition, living expenses and related costs. In many schools they account for the majority of graduate students in science and engineering.

Subject: Vanguard Fund Returns From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 09:36:04 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByName Vanguard Fund Returns 12/31/04 to 11/11/05 S&P Index is 3.4 Large Cap Growth Index is 3.9 Large Cap Value Index is 5.0 Mid Cap Index is 9.7 Small Cap Index is 5.4 Small Cap Value Index is 5.0 Europe Index is 4.9 Pacific Index is 12.7 Energy is 34.5 Health Care is 11.8 Precious Metals 30.4 REIT Index is 9.6 High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is 1.1 Long Term Corporate Bond Fund is 2.3

Subject: Sector Stock Indexes From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 09:35:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsVIPERByName Sector Stock Indexes 12/31/04 - 11/11/05 Energy 31.4 Financials 5.3 Health Care 6.2 Info Tech 2.3 Materials -2.4 REITs 9.7 Telecoms 1.3 Utilities 11.2

Subject: When Experts Need Experts From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 09:14:22 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/10/garden/10old.html?ex=1289278800&en=fb1b185022b87c94&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 10, 2005 When Experts Need Experts By JANE GROSS MINNEAPOLIS — Between them, Robert and Rosalie Kane, he a physician and she a social worker, have devoted 60 years to the study of aging, written scores of books and hundreds of journal articles about long-term care and are widely considered among the world's leading experts. Presumably, that would make them better prepared than most of us to care for frail elderly parents, a rite of passage that most of America's 77 million baby boomers will eventually experience, if they haven't already, with all its heartache and hardship. But expertise is no match for the harsh particulars of old age, and what the Kanes and other experts consider a broken long-term care system. Thus the couple, both professors at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health, were just as flummoxed as the next person when confronted with the day-to-day reality of tending to their own parents: Ruth Kane, who died in 2002 at the age of 87 of complications following a stroke; Pearl Smolkin, who died a year ago at 89 after a slow descent into dementia; and Max Smolkin, 97, who soldiers on despite blindness and kidney disease. 'The epiphany for us is that all this theory doesn't work, and being prepared doesn't matter,' Dr. Kane said during a recent conversation at their sprawling lakeside Tudor home, full of family photographs going back generations. 'It's technically complex, emotionally taxing, there's not much help out there and panic is the normal reaction. If Rosalie and I can't do it, what chance does the average person have?' Inspired by their own experience, the Kanes want to share what they call 'take home points' with other consumers of long-term care and also galvanize policy makers to overhaul a system designed to treat acute illness rather than chronic conditions, which account for 95 percent of the health care dollars spent on those 65 and over. To that end, Dr. Kane and his sister, Joan West, a retired schoolteacher on Long Island, wrote 'It Shouldn't Be This Way: The Failure of Long-Term Care' (Vanderbilt University Press, 2005), a common-sense book that is part memoir, part guidebook and part call to arms. In addition, the Kanes have formed an organization of more than 600 professionals, including doctors, nurses, educators and even employees of the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services who have also been daunted caring for their own relatives. This nascent organization, called Professionals With Personal Experience in Chronic Care, aims to lobby for change in the form and financing of long-term care. The couple also have culled some trade secrets, if you will, from time spent in emergency rooms and intensive care units that agitate the elderly, acute care hospitals that often misunderstand their inter-related conditions, assisted living centers that may promise more than they can deliver, nursing homes where care is often better but at the expense of privacy and quality of life, and private homes where reliable aides can be hard to find and supervise. Dr. Kane's primary piece of advice for adult children is to hew to a structured and deliberate process of decision-making, especially when they are catapulted into a medical crisis, like his mother's 1999 stroke when she was a widow living in Florida. He suggests dividing the process into two parts, first settling on the kind of care - for example, an assisted living center versus a nursing home - and then choosing a vendor, often based on cost and location. Dr. Kane warns that hospital discharge planners have a stake in pressuring families to make quick decisions because of the way they are reimbursed by Medicare. If possible, he suggests hiring an outside advocate, perhaps from among the growing number of geriatric case managers, to help gather information, consider options and resist the time urgency. This is especially important, Dr. Kane said, when relocations are involved, for instance the decision to sell his mother's Florida condominium, move her to a rehabilitation center near his sister on Long Island and later to two different assisted living communities and finally a nursing home. 'You can burn bridges and lose options with each choice,' Dr. Kane said, noting that some families, although not his own, regret selling a home where a parent might have stayed on, despite disease or disability, with adequate assistance. Rosalie Kane's primary suggestion is to seek a multidisciplinary geriatric consultation rather than relying on the advice of a trusted family doctor or a specialist like a cardiologist or oncologist. While not all hospitals have departments of gerontology, those that do pull together doctors, physical and occupational therapists, dieticians, social workers and other professionals who better understand how to manage the cascade of ailments that can overtake a frail elderly person. Ms. Kane's parents, each with an array of medical problems in addition to Mrs. Smolkin's Alzheimer's disease and Mr. Smolkin's blindness, had muddled along in their apartment in Ottawa without such a workup until the final few months of her mother's life. By then, Mrs. Smolkin had lost all interest in eating and drinking, and required hospitalization for dehydration. During that crisis, a team of gerontologists figured out that a treatable problem, an obstructed bile duct, was responsible for Mrs. Smolkin's loss of appetite. But during the two-month hospitalization that followed, she broke a hip, wound up with a bed sore, was put on a catheter because she could not take herself to the bathroom and developed a series of infections associated with being bedridden. Her deterioration required a transfer to a nursing home, where she died after five days. 'An old person is a fragile ecosystem,' Ms. Kane said. 'That calls for being vigilant, assuming nothing and being more sensitive to the side effects of care.' The Kanes, both 65 years old, with three grown daughters and seven grandchildren, began collaborating early in their nomadic academic careers. Together or separately, they have edited scholarly journals for gerontologists, founded departments of geriatrics in medical schools where none existed, studied nursing homes in various countries and evaluated experimental forms of assisted living. Both were long-distance caregivers, with siblings more immediately on the scene; in Dr. Kane's case his sister, Joan, 60, and in Ms. Kane's case one of her two brothers, Robert, 62, a retired real estate lawyer who lives in Canada. Dr. Kane's mother spent the last three years of her life in institutional settings because she no longer had her own home and, Dr. Kane said, 'it would have done in my sister' to take her in. The Smolkins, by contrast, remained in their own apartment, with many relatives nearby to assist them. Now that Mr. Smolkin is widowed, he has live-in help. Dr. Kane's situation was more tumultuous, since his mother had always been a temperamental woman, he said, and her stroke led to an aggressive form of dementia. Over Dr. Kane's objections, her caretakers at an assisted living center used sedation and restraints, insisted the family hire round-the-clock private duty help and later suggested that the family seek another place for Mrs. Kane to live. 'We were cobbling together the best care we could and we were always a battle behind,' Dr. Kane said. In his experience, assisted living is 'the grayest of options, neither fish nor fowl' and tends to be 'inflexible and unimaginative' about tailoring care to individual needs. In addition, in Dr. Kane's view, residents are rushed off in ambulances for minor ailments and accidents because the staff is not medically qualified and afraid of liability. In his mother's case, Dr. Kane said, 'each hospitalization made things worse,' forcing her eventual transfer to a nursing home. One remedy for traumatic hospitalizations, Dr. Kane said, is something called a negotiated risk contract, which he offered to sign, thus absolving the center of responsibility. 'Safety is not necessarily the paramount virtue,' for people in his mother's situation, Dr. Kane said, yet such contracts, while legal, remain a rarity. The people in charge at the two assisted living centers where his mother lived declined to enter into such a contract. Ms. Kane agrees that fear of a fall or other accident should not drive decision-making for the frail elderly and said that she has endured criticism from some friends and relatives for being too relaxed about her parents' safety during the decade they were in failing health yet still living on their own. Now the same critics worry that Ms. Kane has chosen 'unorthodox home care' for her father rather than a more typical cast of agency employees. She concedes the risks. Her father's first live-in companion was 'Marilyn Monroe meets Mary Poppins,' Ms. Kane said, a woman whom the old man adored. Then a drinking problem landed her in jail on a D.W.I. charge. She has been replaced with a man who used to be the Smolkins' driver. So far, so good, Ms. Kane said, 'but it's very tricky, hard not to get too involved and not unlike dealing with nannies.' The key to her decision-making, Ms. Kane said, is trying to honor the individuality of her parents. Her mother, she said, was an anxious woman who would never have felt safe at home without her solicitous, protective mate. Her father, by contrast, is bold enough to continue taking walks in the park and navigating the supermarket by memory even though he is now totally blind. 'My brother and I are dedicated to the idea that it's their lives and they can take the risks they want,' she said. 'That means you have to be fatalistic sometimes.'

Subject: Ethiopia's Capital, Once Promising From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 08:49:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/international/africa/14ethiopia.html November 14, 2005 Ethiopia's Capital, Once Promising, Finds Itself in Crisis By MARC LACEY ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia - This city fancies itself the capital of Africa, the crossroads of the continent, a refined refuge where African leaders gather to address the crises in unruly places like Sudan, Ivory Coast and Congo. The city's most powerful resident, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, has been deemed one of Africa's new generation of leaders, a rebel turned democrat and darling of the international donors. But after a months-long political standoff that has turned increasingly bloody, Ethiopia's capital has joined Africa's more ignominious places, becoming the latest continental crisis point to attract the attention of the African Union, which has its headquarters here. Mr. Meles now finds himself criticized as a dictator, not a democrat. 'If the situation deteriorates here, it's a major symbolic failure for the African Union,' said Abdul Mohammed, an analyst with the Inter-African Group who huddled with African Union leaders on Nov. 4 to discuss the Ethiopia crisis. 'This is the home of the A.U. This is occurring in the A.U.'s backyard.' Quite literally. The African Union's crisis management team did not have to consult a map to find the latest hot spot on this continent. It could look out the window. Ethiopian security forces fired on stone-throwing protesters in the streets around the African Union's headquarters in early November. Tires were burned in the street. The lot next door to the organization was turned into a makeshift detention center as thousands of opposition supporters were rounded up by the government. Many have been released, but treason charges have been filed against some, and others are being held in rugged conditions outside the capital. The discord stems from a democratic transition that has stumbled and fallen flat. The government called parliamentary elections in May and, unlike in the last two elections in 1995 and 2000, actually allowed opposition candidates a chance to campaign. The election was considered a test of the fledging democracy in Africa's second most populous country. The results were a shock. The opposition swept seats in Addis Ababa and finished strongly in other urban areas. Little-known candidates managed to oust several powerful government ministers, a sign that many voters had lost confidence in the governing party. 'The beauty of democracy is people have started to tell even the ruling party they can vote it out if it does not address its concerns,' said Bereket Simon, a top aide to Mr. Meles, putting the best possible face on the surprise election results. After weeks of controversy over those results, the government announced that it had won 296 seats in the 547-member Parliament, with the opposition taking 176 seats, far fewer than the opposition believed it was due. Unused to sharing power, the ruling party also hastily changed parliamentary rules so that only a party with 51 percent of the seats could raise an issue for discussion, infuriating the opposition. When opposition supporters took to the streets in June to claim vote-rigging by the government, security forces opened fire, killing about 40 of them. The African Union stayed silent, drawing the wrath of opposition supporters who accused it of cozying up to the Ethiopian political elite and acting like the old, ineffective Organization of African Unity, which rarely criticized member governments, no matter how repressive. Ethiopia's political crisis blew up again on Nov. 1 while the African Union held a summit meeting here. Opposition supporters organized a low-key protest to attract the attention of the visiting African leaders: motorists were told to toot their horns from 8 to 8:30 a.m. for three days in a row. But heavily armed soldiers were on the streets. Tensions were high and clashes broke out. Soon, soldiers were firing on demonstrators, who were heaving rocks, smashing vehicles and burning tires in the road. The African Union condemned the violence this time and asked Mr. Meles to explain how so many people - 40 or more in the latest bout of violence - died. The chairman, former President Alpha Oumar Konaré of Mali, has met repeatedly with Mr. Meles to discuss the crisis. Mr. Meles blames the opposition for the violence, accusing it even of hurling grenades at security forces. Infuriated by the protests against his rule, Mr. Meles has accused the opposition of trying to topple the government through demonstrations, which he says he will not allow. To control the dissent, soldiers and police officers have swept through the city, arresting the top leadership of the main opposition group, the Coalition of Unity and Development. Similar sweeps have resulted in young men being taken away from neighborhoods where trouble has broken out. 'What we have detained is people who have tried to overthrow the duly constituted government, and that in my view is treason under the laws of the country,' Mr. Meles has told the BBC . Print journalists are also under siege. At least two reporters viewed as sympathetic to the opposition have been detained. Other journalists have gone into hiding, and the authorities took into custody two journalists' mothers as a pressure tactic. [The Committee to Protect Journalists, a New York group that promotes a free press, has told Mr. Meles in a letter that it is 'deeply troubled by your government's harassment and censorship of journalists.'] Alemzurya Teshoe, 25, the daughter of one opposition leader, said that the police raided her home to take away her father and then fatally shot her mother, who was screaming in protest. Ms. Teshoe said the police also shot at one of her brothers, but missed and hit a neighbor instead. Distraught as she recounted the incident, Ms. Teshoe said neighbors who went to the hospital to recover her mother's body were told that they had to sign a document saying that the opposition party was responsible for the killing. 'I was there when they killed my mother,' she said, outraged by the request, which was later dropped. 'I saw it with my own eyes.' The opposition has said it will not join the Parliament until the government agrees to investigate the killings, release political prisoners and include the opposition on the electoral commission, among other demands. Boycotts of ruling party businesses are also planned. [A strike by shopkeepers and taxi drivers planned for the week of Nov. 7 did not succeed after the government threatened to take away the licenses of those who did not report to work.] 'This was daylight robbery,' Hailu Shawel, a prominent businessman who is president of the opposition coalition, said in a recent interview, before his arrest. 'The whole machinery of the government went to war to overturn these results.' Despite little tradition of compromise - the word itself does not exist in Amharic, Ethiopians say - negotiation is widely regarded as the only way out of the standoff. 'Africa is littered with the negative consequences of not compromising,' said Mr. Mohammed, an Ethiopian political analyst who has been trying to bring the parties together. 'The African elite sees compromise as a sign of weakness. It is not. A multiethnic state like this cannot be governed anymore by a one-party state.' What makes Ethiopia's turmoil all the more surprising is that Mr. Meles has been heralded by the West as one of Africa's promising new leaders. He stayed in the good graces of the United States and the European Union, the biggest donors to Ethiopia, even after he and his rival, President Isaias Afewerki of Eritrea, waged a border war from 1998 to 2000 that resulted in a death toll as high as 100,000. Tensions remain high between the countries, with many diplomats fearing that Mr. Isaias may take advantage of Mr. Meles's domestic woes to take aggressive action at the border. Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain picked Mr. Meles, known for his cerebral nature, as a member of his Commission for Africa to help draft a blueprint for building wealth and democracy on the continent. Even after the June killings, Mr. Meles was invited to the Group of 8 meeting in Scotland to advise world leaders. But with the recent bout of violence, Mr. Meles's image abroad has begun to take a battering. 'Another bloodbath is taking place in Ethiopia,' Ana Gomes, the European Union's chief election observer in the May polling, said in a recent letter urging colleagues on the European Parliament to end their chummy approach toward Mr. Meles.

Subject: Re: Ethiopia's Capital, Once Promising From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 11:38:10 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Unbelievable. I used to travel to Ethiopia on a regular basis, up until a couple years ago. I am currently working on 3 projects in Ethiopia (based in Canada) and I have been totally unaware of this. I have just done a search and there are so many more stories on this topic in the news. Thanks Emma.

Subject: Online Encyclopedia Is Handy From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 07:11:16 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/business/14drill.html November 14, 2005 More Find Online Encyclopedia Is Handy By ALEX MINDLIN By several measures, the user-written online encyclopedia Wikipedia (www.wikipedia.com) has exploded in popularity over the last year. The Internet traffic-measurement firm Nielsen//NetRatings found that Wikipedia had more than tripled its monthly readership in September from the same month in 2004. September may have been a month of especially heavy usage for Wikipedia: the site does better during major news events, and September saw both the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the confirmation of John G. Roberts Jr. as chief justice of the United States Supreme Court. But Wikipedia's popularity is not limited to periods of big news. Intelliseek, a marketing-research firm that measures online buzz, has found that the term Wikipedia is consistently used by bloggers - about twice as often as the term 'encyclopedia' - and showed up in roughly one out of every 600 blog posts last month; it was one of every 3,300 posts in October 2004. 'For bloggers, it's almost like a badge of credibility to embed Wikipedia in their blog references,' said Pete Blackshaw, chief marketing officer for Intelliseek. 'There's something about Wikipedia that confers a degree of respectability, because multiple Web users have converged on it.'

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 06:54:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 11/11/05 Australia 11.7 Canada 19.2 Denmark 15.1 France 5.0 Germany 3.3 Hong Kong 6.2 Japan 13.7 Netherlands 6.8 Norway 20.0 Sweden 3.4 Switzerland 13.8 UK 5.4

Subject: Index Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 06:53:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 11/11/05 Australia 19.5 Canada 18.5 Denmark 34.0 France 21.9 Germany 20.0 Hong Kong 5.9 Japan 30.9 Netherlands 20.0 Norway 31.1 Sweden 27.1 Switzerland 31.5 UK 16.2

Subject: The Narnia Skirmishes From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 06:38:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/movies/13narnia.html November 13, 2005 The Narnia Skirmishes By CHARLES McGRATH Disney's new feature film, 'The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,' spends a good deal more time than C.S. Lewis's beloved children's book on the climactic battle between the forces of the sinister White Witch and the army of Aslan, the supernatural lion. The movie of course has the benefit of studio bean counters and recognizes that this could be the mother of all screen battles - not just your basic struggle of good and evil but a $200 million smackdown between the religious right and godless Hollywood, between C.S. Lewis and J.R.R. Tolkien and, for that matter, between Aslan and King Kong, a resurrected version of whom opens in a movie of his own a few days after 'Narnia' does next month. The great philosophical debate of my childhood was: Who is stronger, King Kong or Mighty Joe Young? In the Kong-Aslan matchup, Aslan, a Christ figure, would seem to have the advantage of omnipotence, but that's not to say he will prevail at the box office. There are seven Narnia books in all, making them potentially the third great onslaught - after the movie adaptations of 'Harry Potter' and Tolkien's famous 'Lord of the Rings' trilogy - of British children's lit into the multiplex. Like the Rowling and Tolkien books, Lewis's evoke a richly imagined parallel universe, but they differ in including a frankly religious element: not just an undercurrent of all-purpose, feel-good religiosity but a rigorous substratum of no-nonsense, orthodox Christianity. If you read between the lines - and sometimes right there in them - these stories are all about death and resurrection, salvation and damnation. From a moviemaking point of view, this is excellent news if you are hoping to reach the crowd that packed the theaters to see Mel Gibson's 'Passion of the Christ,' probably not so great if you're also hoping to lure all those wizards-and-weapons fans who made the 'Lord of the Rings' trilogy such a hit (Disney is still kicking itself for passing on that one) and sheer disaster, presumably, if your target audience also includes the hordes of moviegoing teenagers that turned Disney's last mega-hit, 'Pirates of the Caribbean,' into an apparently inexhaustible asset. In fact, there are some Hollywood observers who seem to believe that there is a good reason Lewis is among the last of the classic children's authors to be adapted for the movies, and that in taking on Narnia, Disney has backed itself into a corner. If the studio plays down the Christian aspect of the story, it risks criticism from the religious right, the argument goes; if it is too upfront about the religious references, on the other hand, that could be toxic at the box office. Disney, which is producing 'Narnia' with Walden Media, the 'family friendly' entertainment company owned by the politically conservative financier Philip Anschutz, is hedging its bets and has, for example, already issued two separate soundtrack albums, one featuring Christian music and musicians and another with pop and rock tunes. 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,' published in 1950, was the first of the Narnia books. It now comes second in the order established by HarperCollins, Lewis's publisher, but it remains the most famous and is also the most essential volume in the series. It tells the story of the four Pevensie children - Peter, Susan, Edmund and Lucy - who have been sent by their parents to stay with an elderly professor in the country as the blitz rages in wartime London. While exploring the professor's house, Lucy, the youngest, comes upon an old wardrobe in an empty room and, pushing aside some fur coats there and groping to the back, finds herself in a snowy wood at nighttime. This is Narnia, it turns out - a more or less medieval version of Paradise, populated by dwarfs, fauns and talking beasts, that is now under the wintry spell of an evil queen (the witch of the title), whose hold over the place is broken only by the arrival of a supersize lion named Aslan. Aslan is fierce but beautiful, stern but loving; his breath is perfumed like incense; and the mere sight of him is enough to set most creatures tingling. He is, in fact, nothing less than the Son of God, who dies and then comes back to life and through the seven volumes repeatedly tests but ultimately saves the children and leads them to eternal safety - all except Susan, that is, who will become too interested in 'nylons and lipstick and invitations.' If the series is read in what is now the canonical order, Volumes I and VII, 'The Magician's Nephew' and 'The Last Battle,' which are, respectively, a Creation story and a version of Armageddon, unmistakably spell out the theological dimensions of the story, but if you're not forewarned, it is perfectly possible to read most of the other volumes without a clue that anything more is going on than meets the eye. Actually, the books are better when read without the subtext. Aslan, for example, is much more thrilling and mysterious if you think of him as a superhero lion, not as Jesus in a Bert Lahr suit. And though central to the Narnia books, Aslan is not the real draw. Narnia itself is - or, rather, that wardrobe door opening onto a parallel universe, a magical place to which only children have access. This is what captivated my children about the story - in my daughter's case so much so that we had to empty her bedroom closet of clothes and build a little shelf on which she could climb up with her books and dolls and stuffed animals. She spent hours in there, dreaming of getting through to the other side. The allegorical element in the Narnia books drove J.R.R. Tolkien crazy. By remarkable coincidence, he and Lewis - arguably the two greatest pre-'Harry Potter' writers of fantasy literature in English - overlapped for some 30 years at Oxford. Tolkien, older by seven years, was known as Tollers; Lewis preferred to be called Jack. They were absent-minded dons of the old school, the kind who wore carpet slippers, baggy flannel trousers and elbow-patched tweed jackets in which a forgotten pipe might at any moment start a pocket fire. Tolkien was famous for mumbling, Lewis for conducting conversations from the next room while noisily using his chamber pot. Tolkien and Lewis were friends - close for a while, then a little less so, while maintaining a certain wary affection - and the senior members of a literary club called the Inklings, whose members customarily read aloud from their own writing and, after a few pints, said what they thought about the work of others. On at least one occasion when Tollers was reading from 'The Lord of the Rings,' Hugo Dyson, another member, groaned and said (in slightly less polite language), 'Oh, no, not another elf!' And in 1949, after being exposed to an early draft of 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,' Tolkien said, 'It really won't do, you know.' Tolkien, a devout Catholic, thought that religious writing ought to be left to the professionals - to the clergy. He also hated that 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe' was such a hodgepodge. Tolkien in his own work was what he called a 'subcreator,' the maker of an imaginary world as intricate, as detailed and as self-sufficient as the real one. For 'The Lord of the Rings' trilogy, he created not just a story but also an entire world, Middle Earth, a geography, a mythology and several languages. Lewis, by contrast, was a magpie. He took whatever came to hand and dumped it all in. 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe' is a pastiche not only of Christian theology but also of Wagner and of classical Greek and Latin mythology, of Arthurian romance, Grimm's fairy tales and Scandinavian folklore, of Kenneth Grahame, Beatrix Potter and Edmund Spenser. Near the end of the book, even Santa Claus (as Father Christmas) makes a cameo appearance, much as he does at the end of the Macy's Thanksgiving parade. Unlike Tolkien, who had three sons and a daughter, Clive Staples Lewis knew very little about children. By choice, he spent most of his life as a militant bachelor, immersed in medieval and 16th-century literature. Lewis was also a famously precocious atheist who, in 1931, underwent a conversion, brought about in part by conversations with Tolkien, who convinced Lewis, a lover of myth, that the story of Christ, his birth, death and resurrection, was a myth that just happened to be true. Lewis went on to become an outspoken Christian apologist, and in books like 'The Problem of Pain,' 'The Great Divorce' and 'Mere Christianity,' he expounded in clear, plain-spoken language his particular brand of no-frills, muscular Christianity, which was in many respects a theological version of stalwart English middle-classness. He had no use at all for those who wished to recover the 'historical Jesus,' for example - the slightly distant and unknowable one Anglicans worshiped every Sunday was perfectly good. These religious writings made Lewis immensely popular, and in some circles he has even been elevated to secular sainthood. In middle age, Lewis became the romantic figure depicted in 'Shadowlands,' the Richard Attenborough movie based on William Nicholson's play. Both are a more or less faithful account of his surprising marriage, at age 58, to one of his many female groupies, Joy Gresham, an American divorcée and convert from Judaism, who died of cancer less than four years later. But for decades before that, Lewis also had a secret life, another marriage of sorts, that was both mysterious and a little weird. For more than 40 years, he lived with the mother of a friend named Edward Moore, with whom he had made one of those earnest World War I pacts: if anything happened to either of them, the other would take care of his friend's family. In the event, it was Moore who died, while Lewis came down with trench fever and was later wounded, not severely but badly enough that he was sent home. Lewis, then 20, went to Oxford in January 1919, but he kept his word and moved Mrs. Moore and her daughter, Maureen, to lodgings nearby. In those days, for an Oxford undergraduate to spend the night away from his college, let alone spend it with a woman, was a serious offense, and so Lewis embarked upon a double life, spending the week in college and weekends and vacations with Maureen and Mrs. Moore, or Minto, as she was known. The arrangement persisted for the rest of Minto's life, long after Lewis earned his degree and became a don. In 1930, he and Minto bought a house together, and Lewis's brother, Warnie, a career army officer whose excessive drinking had forced him into early retirement, moved in. But during the term, Lewis still slept in his rooms at Magdalen College. Many of his friends didn't even know about Minto; others had the vague impression that she was his stepmother. The exact nature of their relationship is something that many of Lewis's biographers would prefer to tiptoe around. But Lewis was far from a sexual innocent, and the evidence strongly suggests that, at least until he got religion, there was an erotic component to his life with Minto. Did they actually sleep together, this earnest, scholarly young man, conventional in almost every other way, and a woman 26 years his senior? Walter Hooper, the editor of Lewis's 'Collected Letters,' thinks it 'not improbable.' A.N. Wilson, the best and most persuasive of Lewis's biographers, argues that there's no reason at all to think they didn't, leaving us with the baffling and disquieting psychological picture of C.S. Lewis, the great scholar and writer and Christian apologist-to-be, pedaling off on his bicycle, his academic gown flapping in the wind, to have a nooner with Mum. What Lewis saw in Minto is another matter. No one else could stand her. Warnie once described her association with Lewis as 'the rape of J's life.' He wrote in his diary at the time of her death in January 1951, 'And so ends the mysterious self-imposed slavery in which J has lived for at least 30 years.' Minto said of Jack, 'He was as good as an extra maid,' and she subjected him to a kind of domestic slavery that Wilson says he thinks amounted to sexual masochism on Lewis's part. His servility grew worse toward the end of Minto's life, when she slipped into an angry and querulous senility, and he spent most of his waking hours caring for her, for her ancient, incontinent dog, Bruce, and for Warnie, who eventually became a six-bottle-a-day man and was now stumbling around in a stupor all afternoon. It was at the beginning of this period, during the summer of 1948, that Lewis returned to the writing of 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,' which he started and abandoned in 1939. Inevitably, there have been a number of Freudian interpretations of 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,' theories making a great deal of the observation, for example, that you get to Narnia through what amounts to a closet-size vagina. But if in fact there is a psychological explanation for how the books came to be, it is probably a good deal simpler. Lewis was at the time so despondent and worn down, so weary of the world of grown-ups, with their bedpans and whiskey bottles, that he must have longed for a holiday in a land of make-believe. Lewis later claimed that in writing the Narnia books, he 'put in what I would have liked to read when I was a child and what I still like reading now that I am in my 50's.' Children's literature - the notion of books written specifically to be read to or by young people - was a Victorian invention, and Lewis as a child was shaped by a typically Victorian reading list. With the indiscrimination that so troubled Tolkien, he cannibalized much of it for 'The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.' The talking beavers, for example, who hide the Pevensie children in their lodge, come from Kenneth Grahame and from Beatrix Potter. The idea of an enchanted place on the other side of a door may owe something to Lewis Carroll. And Lewis never bothered to deny that the central conceit of the book - a group of children displaced from their parents and adventuring on in an unfamiliar landscape - was inspired in part by E. Nesbit's Bastable books, especially 'The Story of the Amulet,' about children who travel through time, and 'The Enchanted Castle,' where on the grounds of an old house statues come to life and the Greek gods make an appearance. In turn, of course, the Narnia books cast their shadow over other writers. J.K. Rowling has said that she was influenced by them, and you can feel aspects of Harry Potter being anticipated in, say, the character of the loathsome Eustace Scrubb, who before he is redeemed by Aslan is cut from the same smarmy cloth as Harry's cousin Dudley, or in the scene in 'The Magician's Book,' where Lucy picks up an enchanted book whose pictures come alive and predict the future as she looks at them. Lewis's greatest influence, though, is on the British fantasy writer Philip Pullman, whose 'His Dark Materials' trilogy is both a homage of sorts (it begins with a girl in a wardrobe) and also a kind of anti-Narnia, a negation of everything Lewis stood for. God in these books turns out to be a senile impostor and Christianity merely a 'very powerful and convincing mistake.' Pullman is an atheist and, not coincidentally, one of Lewis's fiercest critics. He has said of the Narnia cycle that 'it is one of the most ugly and poisonous things I've ever read' and has called Lewis a bigot and his fans 'unhinged.' The books do have their faults, certainly. They're not nearly as well written as either the 'Potter' or the 'Dark Materials' books. And by the standards of political correctness, they commit a host of sins. They're preachy, they're sometimes gratuitously violent and they patronize girls. The villains, moreover - the Calormenes, who dwell in the south - are oily cartoon Muslims who wear turbans and pointy-toed slippers and talk funny. Then there's the unfortunate business with Susan, the second-oldest of the Pevensies, who near the end of the last volume is denied salvation merely because of her fondness for nylons and lipstick - because she has reached puberty, in other words, and has become sexualized. This passage in particular has set off Pullman and other critics (and has caused the fantasy writer Neil Gaiman to publish a kind of payback scenario, in which Susan has grown up to be a distinguished professor, not unlike Lewis, and in which for good measure Aslan performs earth-shaking oral sex on the witch). But you sense that among many British critics the real failure of the books is that they're so middle class - so affirming of traditional behaviors and role models, of old-fashioned, Church of England religion and Tory politics. This criticism is perfectly fair up to point - Lewis was a progressive in nothing except his choice of women to sleep with - and the solid, no-nonsense 'values' of the books are precisely the source of their appeal to Anschutz, a former Sunday-school teacher who has plotted a 15-year battle plan to turn Narnia into a mega-weapon in the entertainment wars. But there is also an undercurrent of restlessness in the Narnia books, which manifests itself in Lewis's obsessive borrowings and crammings - the need to include Bacchus and Silenus in the same scene as some talking animals and slow-witted giants - and in a kind of headlong narrative hastiness. Lewis seldom lingers, and the books are always rushing on to the next thing. In 'The Voyage of the Dawn Treader,' Prince Caspian travels to the end of the world just to see what's there, and the motto of the final volume, in which the children travel from the old Narnia to a newer and even better one, is 'Further Up and Further In.' Lewis once characterized the imagination as a faculty that 'stirs and troubles' the reader with a 'dim sense of something beyond his reach,' and the Narnia chronicles, however stodgy their apparent message, surely succeed at doing just that. Like all the great children's books, they're not really concerned with explaining or defending this or that orthodoxy. They're interested in mostly the same thing Hollywood is: escape.

Subject: The Goat at Saks From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 05:56:04 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/business/14book.html November 14, 2005 The Goat at Saks and Other Marketing Tales By LORNE MANLY Few children's books carry promotional blurbs from the likes of the fashion designers Roberto Cavalli, Giorgio Armani and Jean Paul Gaultier. But then 'Cashmere if You Can,' is not your typical children's book. This new lavishly illustrated book from HarperCollins Publishers follows the misadventures of Wawa Hohhot and her family of Mongolian cashmere goats who just happen to live on the roof of Saks's Midtown Manhattan store. The location is no accident: a Saks Fifth Avenue marketing executive came up with the idea, and the department store chain owns the text copyright. It is as if the Plaza Hotel had underwritten 'Eloise: A Book for Precocious Grown-ups.' On sale now only in Saks stores, HarperCollins plans to distribute the $16.99 book nationwide in January as if it were any other children's picture book. And 'Cashmere if You Can' has inspired HarperCollins, a unit of the News Corporation, to make a business out of these sorts of corporate collaborations. Saks has already signed with the publisher to produce another children's book for next year's holiday season, and HarperCollins is in negotiations with sports and entertainment entities and packaged goods companies. The weaving of brands and products into content - making them supporting characters or even the stars rather than mere scenery -is growing elsewhere in the media, particularly on television, as advertisers try to cut through the clutter. The book world, however, has not always been hospitable to such commercialization. Working that closely with a sponsor is viewed as compromising the work's artistic or literary aspirations or sullying the integrity of the reading experience, as the novelist Fay Weldon discovered when she accepted a product placement fee for a 2001 book. While there have always been books, like 'Weber's Big Book of Grilling' and 'The Cheerios Counting Book,' with obvious corporate tie-ins, 'Cashmere if You Can' offers a new twist, with a more subtle connection and no clear disclosure of Saks's involvement. Although there is a Mr. Saks in the story, who hires Wawa to be a model, and the Elizabeth Arden Red Door Salon at the Saks Midtown location makes an appearance, they are in service to an actual plot. 'It's not the 'Saks Book of Style,' ' said Andrea Rosen, vice president of special markets at HarperCollins. 'We flipped the model.' (HarperCollins receives a publishing fee from Saks and an undisclosed share of revenue.) In attempting to make a business - albeit a modest one - out of publishing similar books, HarperCollins is also trying to goose an industry that is being squeezed from different sides. Powerful discounters like Wal-Mart and Costco sell a limited selection of books and return them promptly for full refunds if they do not sell quickly. Book chains like Barnes & Noble are devoting more space to gift items and other trinkets. Amid all this, publishers have been trying to push into nontraditional markets and to find new outlets for their wares, like Saks Fifth Avenue. 'We can't keep chasing only best sellers,' said Jane Friedman, chief executive of HarperCollins. 'We all recognize we all have to do different things today.' Ms. Friedman enjoys doing just that. Not one to play down accomplishments - she misses few opportunities to take credit for the invention of the author tour or popularizing the audio book - she recently put corporate initiatives into place aimed at making HarperCollins as much of a brand name as its authors. To further those ends, she relishes making use of other assets within the News Corporation empire. On 'Stacked,' the Fox television show revolving around a ditzy character played by Pamela Anderson who works in a bookstore, the books on display are from HarperCollins. And Ms. Friedman mused in a recent interview about steering her writers on to the show. 'Wouldn't it be fun to put Jack Welch with Pamela Anderson?' Ms. Friedman asked. Given synergy's dodgy record, it is unclear whether these efforts will help sell HarperCollins books. But Ms. Friedman does not lack optimism. 'Maybe I'm a dreamer,' she said, 'but a lot of what I've dreamt has come true.' Terron Schaefer, the senior vice president of marketing at Saks Fifth Avenue who came up with the idea for a children's book and has an as-told-to credit on the cover, also dreams big. He envisions a movie or television show based on the antics of the Hohhot goat family, and has hired a Hollywood talent agency to sell the project. (He hit upon the surname while researching cashmere, discovering that much of today's fabric comes from Inner Mongolia, and that Hohhot is one of its towns.) Although 'Cashmere if You Can' is part of a chainwide holiday promotion for a certain expensive fabric, Mr. Schaefer said the book was not about persuading 7-year-olds (or their mothers) to develop a taste for fur-trimmed cashmere scarves. 'There's no real sell in the book,' he said. 'It's just about being happy with who you are.' But the ultimate goal is, of course, all about marketing in some form. 'If you can get into the lexicon of the public, I think we'll have accomplished something,' he said. 'Eloise at the Plaza; I rest my case.' But not all booksellers may be keen to help HarperCollins insinuate the Hohhots into the national consciousness come January. 'That's disgusting,' said Carla Cohen, co-owner of Politics and Prose in Washington, when told about the book. 'Teaching kids about material things most people can't afford, that's gross.' The intersection of books and advertising - disguised or not - has always been a fraught issue. Chris Whittle was greeted by a torrent of criticism more than 15 years ago when he bound ads into books by authors like John Kenneth Galbraith and Richard Rhodes. Ms. Weldon created a minitempest when she accepted an undisclosed sum from Bulgari, the Italian jewelry company, in exchange for prominent placement in her 2001 book, 'The Bulgari Connection.' (HarperCollins was the book's British publisher, while Grove/Atlantic published the novel in the United States.) And last year, the Ford Motor Company paid Carole Matthews, a British author, to feature the Ford Fiesta in her next two novels. The Saks imprimatur does not necessarily bother other booksellers. 'If it's a good book, we'll buy it,' Steve Riggio, chief executive of Barnes & Noble, said through a spokeswoman. That view was echoed by people in the independent bookselling world, including Roxanne J. Coady, owner of R J Julia Booksellers, which owns two stores in Connecticut, and Mitchell Kaplan, owner of Books & Books, with three locations in southern Florida. 'All the books published come from a big corporation,' Mr. Kaplan said. 'In situations like this, it all depends on how good the book is.' Anne Irish, executive director of the Association of Booksellers for Children, concurred that merit would be the primary consideration. Ms. Friedman said the publisher would disclose Saks's involvement in the trade version of the book, but she was puzzled by objections. 'The idea of working with a company and creating editorial together, I see nothing untoward about that, nothing,' Ms. Friedman said. And if people do have a problem? 'Don't buy our book if you don't want to,' Ms. Friedman said.

Subject: Stonewalling the Katrina Victims From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 05:53:58 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/14/opinion/14mon2.html November 14, 2005 Stonewalling the Katrina Victims Public outrage is clearly growing over the federal government's woefully inadequate program for housing the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Last week a group of survivors filed the first of what are likely to be several lawsuits alleging that the Federal Emergency Management Agency has failed to live up to its responsibilities. The recovery effort has been subject to blistering criticism from conservative, nonpartisan and liberal groups alike. The same basic question is this: Why did the Bush administration focus on trailer parks built by FEMA - which is actually not a housing agency - instead of giving the lead role to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which has so much experience on this issue? Many, including the Brookings Institution and the conservative Heritage Foundation, urged the administration to switch on HUD's famously successful Section 8 program, which gives families government vouchers to find decent housing in the private real estate market. That program worked well after the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California. But the White House - which seems less interested in conservative philosophy about how to make government programs work than with simply cutting the amount of money that gets spent on poor people - has been working feverishly to cripple HUD and destroy the Section 8 voucher program for years. So the administration rigged up a hastily thought out program that is less flexible and less helpful than Section 8 - and confusing in the bargain. Still focused on tax cuts for the wealthy, the administration is apparently hoping that people who need housing will be frustrated by the difficult process of applying for federal relief dollars and simply give up and go away.

Subject: Paul Krugman: Health Economics 101 From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 05:04:45 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/ November 14, 2005 Paul Krugman: Health Economics 101 By Mark Thioma It's nice to have Paul Krugman discuss a question that has been addressed repeatedly at this site, market failure in the provision of health and social insurance due to moral hazard and adverse selection: Health Economics 101, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...[W]e rely on free markets to deliver most goods and services, so why shouldn't we do the same thing for health care? .... It comes down to three things: risk, selection and social justice. First, about risk: ... In 2002 a mere 5 percent of Americans incurred almost half of U.S. medical costs. If you find yourself one of the unlucky 5 percent, your medical expenses will be crushing, unless you're very wealthy - or you have good insurance. But good insurance is hard to come by, because private markets for health insurance suffer from ... the economic problem known as 'adverse selection,' in which bad risks drive out good. To understand adverse selection, imagine what would happen if ... everyone was required to buy the same insurance policy. In that case, the insurance company could charge a price reflecting the medical costs of the average American, plus a small extra charge for administrative expenses. But in the real insurance market, a company that offered such a policy ... would lose money hand over fist. Healthy people, who don't expect ... high medical bills, would go elsewhere, or go without insurance. ... [T]hose who bought the policy would be a self-selected group of people likely to have high medical costs. And if the company responded to this selection bias by charging a higher price for insurance, it would drive away even more healthy people. That's why insurance companies ... devote a lot of effort and money to screening applicants... This screening process is the main reason private health insurers spend a much higher share of their revenue on administrative costs than do government insurance programs like Medicare, which doesn't try to screen anyone out. ... [P]rivate insurance companies spend large sums not on providing medical care, but on denying insurance to those who need it most. What happens to those denied coverage? Citizens of advanced countries ... don't believe that their fellow citizens should be denied essential health care because they can't afford it. And this belief in social justice gets translated into action... Some ... are covered by Medicaid. Others receive 'uncompensated' treatment, ... paid for either by the government or by higher medical bills for the insured. ... At this point some readers may object that I'm painting too dark a picture. After all, most Americans ... have private health insurance. So does the free market work better than I've suggested? No: to the extent that we do have a working system of private health insurance, it's the result of huge though hidden subsidies. ... [C]ompensation in the form of health benefits... isn't taxed. One recent study suggests that this tax subsidy may be as large as $190 billion per year. And even with this subsidy, employment-based coverage is in rapid decline. I'm not an opponent of markets. ... I've spent a lot of my career defending their virtues. But the fact is that the free market doesn't work for health insurance, and never did. All we ever had was a patchwork, semiprivate system supported by large government subsidies. That system is now failing. And a rigid belief that markets are always superior to government programs - a belief that ignores basic economics as well as experience - stands in the way of rational thinking about what should replace it. For similar comments on Social Security insurance, see Social Security is about insurance, not savings, The Need for Social Insurance, and Optimizing Social Security through Poverty Insurance and Retirement Saving. And from Paul Krugman, see Passing the Buck.

Subject: Tax reform (by Alan B. Krueger) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 03:32:50 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: One Tempting Remedy for the Alternative Minimum Tax Has Flaws of Its Own By ALAN B. KRUEGER The New York Times, Economic Scene Nov. 10, 2005 THE recommendations of President Bush's advisory panel on federal tax reform, announced last week, were greeted by Congress and the administration with all the enthusiasm of a recommendation for root canal surgery. Although the panel proposed two sensible plans to reduce distortions in the tax code and improve fairness, its proposal to cut the popular mortgage interest deduction, included in both plans, almost assures that the plans will not reach Congress as written. Perhaps the most likely of the panel's proposals to be enacted is the elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes. This is a tempting but flawed way to 'fix' the alternative minimum tax. Eliminating the state and local deduction would make it harder for state and local governments to raise revenue for essential public services and result in more distortions and inequities from the tax code. 'We should be very wary about getting rid of this worthwhile deduction unless it's our last resort,' said James R. Hines Jr., a public finance economist at the University of Michigan. The panel's report is now being reviewed by the Treasury secretary, John W. Snow, who will decide which, if any, of the proposals to send to the president. Without pressure from the White House - and a willingness by the president to roll back some of his previously enacted tax cuts - Congress is unlikely to consider a major tax overhaul anytime soon. The report may do more than gather dust, however. Eventually, Congress will have to consider options to raise revenue, and the report will be a natural source of ideas. More immediately, Congress is likely to address the alternative minimum tax, which will ensnare 21.6 million taxpayers in 2006, up from 4.1 million in 2005, absent changes. The A.M.T., which was established to make a small number of wealthy tax avoiders pay some income tax, sets up a parallel tax structure. The definition of taxable income under the minimum tax is broader than under the regular tax code; most important, it does not allow deductions for state and local taxes. Congress is likely to reduce the reach of the minimum tax. But reining in or repealing the A.M.T. will be expensive; full repeal could cost $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years if the president's tax cuts are made permanent, and $611 billion if they are not. Eliminating the deduction for state and local taxes would bring in almost enough revenue to pay for repealing the A.M.T. if the president's tax cuts remain - and more than enough if the tax cuts expire - according to a study by Kim Rueben of the Urban Institute. On the surface, that approach appears to make sense, since taxpayers caught in the A.M.T. lose the deduction. Why shouldn't everybody? If state and local taxes were mainly used for services that taxpayers directly benefit from, like garbage collection, the case for deducting the taxes would be weak. But this is not the case. Most state and local tax revenue is used for education, health care, social services, highways and other programs that probably do not directly benefit the individual taxpayer nearly as much as the community at large. Additionally, because people are geographically mobile, states and cities lose residents if they set taxes too high. The state and local deduction reduces this distortion. Eliminating the state and local deduction would also cause a distortion between support for charities and similar government programs. Why allow people to deduct charitable contributions to a homeless shelter, but not their state taxes used for the same purpose? The tax panel's call for a tax credit for charitable donations, but not for state and local taxes, would worsen this distortion. A more rational approach would base deductibility on the function of the funds. Eliminating the state and local deduction would also create a peculiar inequity in the tax code: American taxpayers would be allowed to deduct income taxes that they paid to foreign governments but not those paid to their state or local government. State and local taxes have been deductible since the start of the federal income tax in 1913. After Hurricane Katrina revealed serious shortcomings in the infrastructure of state and local government, Congress should think carefully about making it harder for states and municipalities to raise funds for essential government functions. Indeed, it would make more sense to allow deductions for state and local taxes from the A.M.T. income base than to eliminate the state and local deduction from the regular income tax. My Economic Scene column on Aug. 18, 2005 ('Fair? Balanced? A Study Finds It Does Not Matter') reported on a research paper by Prof. Stefano DellaVigna of the University of California, Berkeley, and Prof. Ethan Kaplan of the Institute for International Economic Studies at Stockholm University. Their paper concluded that the spread of the Fox News Channel across 8,630 towns and cities in 24 states from 1996 to 2000 had no detectable effect on voter behavior. The professors have continued their research, adding data on four additional states, assigning greater weight to areas with higher voter turnout and eliminating towns with multiple cable providers or questionable data. They conclude from their latest research that from the 1996 presidential election to the one in 2000, 'Republicans gained 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points in the towns which broadcast Fox News.' Alan B. Krueger is the Bendheim professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University. His Web site is www.krueger.princeton.edu.

Subject: Federal Reserve to Stop M3??!? From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 20:29:03 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm Discontinuance of M3 On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release. Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks). I thought he wanted to be transparent - why the change?

Subject: Re: Federal Reserve to Stop M3??!? From: Emma To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 06:07:57 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Imagine how shocked I am that a statistic that has no evident analytical meaning is not being collected and published each week. There will however be much concern among the advocates for a constant money supply. There is no cause for concern, but gold standard fans will complain for ever more.

Subject: Why now? From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 09:11:40 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Please tell me Emma - why now? If it was so useless - why not make the change 2 years ago or 5 or 10? Why was it included to begin with? Remember several posts down I stopped allocating capital to GOLD. That does not increase mankinds science or technology.

Subject: Re: Why now? From: Emma To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 09:20:24 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: All statistics gathers should examine the cost and use of the data collected and published. The Fed does this from time to time. This has absolutely no bearing on whether precious metals and mining stocks are worth investing in. The Fed has not used the data in question for policy making for decades.

Subject: A foggy world From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 10:33:23 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Emma. When you invest do you have the same disregard for market cap and stock dilution for a given company in which you might invest? The dollar has often been refered to as America's share of stock. If the money supply is growing at a much higher rate than GDP (the economy) does this have no significance? UNPLEASANT M3 TREND FED COUNTERS BY STOPPING RELEASE OF MONEY SUPPLY DATA by Toni Straka November 12, 2005 I am beginning to lose my respect for the Federal Reserve. At a time when money supply (link to Wikipedia) has been exploding and weekly figures provide a nasty experience week after week, month after month, the Fed put out a short, flat notice last Thursday, saying that it will discontinue publication of M3 figures after March 2006. Such a step may fit in the policy of the current Bush administration but certainly not a supposedly independent central bank. M3 is the most important money aggregate for economists, analysts and Fed watchers to get an idea at what the speed the (electronic) printing press is running. The European Central Bank (ECB) honors this set of data with a special press release every month. So much about transparency. GRAPH: Recent M3 figures are certainly unpleasant and worrisome. M3 has been growing at an annual rate of 7.5 percent or double the most recent rate of GDP growth (subject to a revision.) Since Bush took office money supply M3 has risen 39.2%. The Fed prints it and the government spends it as can be seen by growing government participation in growth numbers. I am still shocked and in a state of disbelief that gives place to being disgusted about the new style. What will be next? Discontinuation of industrial production figures below zero? The consumer price index (CPI) being treated as a national secret once it rises above 5%? Torture threats against people insisting to get the whole picture? US Investing Will Become Fly By Night Adventure No! First comes the discontinuation of more important data releases. No more repo data, no more Eurodollar data, no more large time deposits. Investing will become a fly by night adventure. From the Fed website (saved locally for later reference): On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release. Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks). Take note that only publication, but not calculation of these figures will be discontinued. I strongly hope that Ben Bernanke will revise this decision, being an economist who knows that sound research can only be done on the basis of data. Looking back into history economic data was only kept a secret in failing economies, e.g. the Soviet Union As this data is published by the board of governors of the Fed every one of their words will have to be scrutinized most carefully in the future and tested for credibility. Words are easy, but I prefer hard data. No prudent investor will navigate his funds through a foggy world but lie at anchor below a clear sky, meaning: elsewhere. For further information read 'If it weren't that cheap to print them greenbacks' and 'M3 and public debt hit record highs.' Once you read this you may be in the mood to read 'US AAA rating - how much longer?'

Subject: Re: A foggy world From: Emma To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 10:57:14 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I imagine there will be fear all through the investment community, the statistics they never bothered to look at are suddenly available less frequently, but I do not see the problem. Inflation is nicely under control almost everywhere, even with higher international energy costs, and the bond market will tell us if there is a problem even with no weekly reference to a particular extended money supply measure. But, I will not miss data I never bothered to use though the money supply trackers will. Worry not.

Subject: Money supply growth From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 16:24:39 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The following is from Wikipedia (online encyclopedia): Monetary exchange equation Money supply is important because it is directly linked to inflation by the 'monetary exchange equation': where: velocity = the number of times per year that money changes hands (if it is a number it is always simply GDP / money supply) real GDP = nominal Gross Domestic Product / GDP deflator GDP deflator = measure of inflation. Money supply may be less than or greater than the demand of money in the economy In other words, if the money supply grows faster than real GDP (unproductive debt expansion), inflation must follow as velocity has been shown to be relatively stable.

Subject: Re: Money supply growth From: Pete Weis To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 16:50:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Oops. I left out the Money Exchange Equation: Velocity x Money Supply = real GDP x GDP deflator 'In other words, if the money supply grows faster than real GDP (unproductive debt expansion), inflation must follow as velocity has been shown to be relatively stable.' As I was trying to get across to Terri, when we borrow heavily to close the gaps caused by both the current account deficit and fiscal deficit, we get money supply growing faster than real GDP and hence eventually it leads to inflation (a weakening dollar). While cheap overseas labor has served to keep the cost of many imported goods down, most of the necessities in life (food, energy, materials) have been rising at a much faster rate than the 'core inflation' rate. Energy and material costs for US companies have been rising at a rapid rate in recent years. At least some of this has been due to a weakening dollar relative to its levels back in the late 90's. Although, the dollar has shown some recent strength, inevitably it will weaken over time unless the fiscal and current account deficits eventually disappear.

Subject: Re: Money supply growth From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 18:43:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: All you write is correct, as usual, but correct in theory does not mean correct in reality. As far as inflation and investing goes, there is no relation between the broad money supply measure and either inflation or long term interest rates. This was noted about 20 years ago. I pay attention to many things, and try to be open to ideas, but I abide by what is meaning and what makes investing sense. The Fed change is only amusing to me because I am sure the gold standard folks will be complaining as usual. Precious metals stocks make sense or not, but never because of the ideas of the gold standard crowd.

Subject: Re: Money supply growth From: Peter Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 21:05:30 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'As far as inflation and investing goes, there is no relation between the broad money supply measure and either inflation or long term interest rates. This was noted about 20 years ago.' Jennifer. Where was this noted? I would be interested in knowing who might have noted this and what information did they use to back their findings. The basis for the monetarist view is the relationship between money supply and inflation/deflation. Has someone already conclusively refuted Milton Friedman's money supply theories?

Subject: Re: Money supply growth From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 19:56:56 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Imagine, I was even been buying financials earlier in the year :) Oh dear, oh dear.... I like you.

Subject: Race-Based Medicine From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 13:56:18 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/11/health/11heart.html November 11, 2005 Genetic Find Stirs Debate on Race-Based Medicine By NICHOLAS WADE In a finding that is likely to sharpen discussion about the merits of race-based medicine, an Icelandic company says it has detected a version of a gene that raises the risk of heart attack in African-Americans by more than 250 percent. The company, DeCode Genetics, first found the variant gene among Icelanders and then looked for it in three American populations, in Philadelphia, Cleveland and Atlanta. Among Americans of European ancestry, the variant is quite common, but it causes only a small increase in risk, about 16 percent. The opposite is true among African-Americans. Only 6 percent of African-Americans have inherited the variant gene, but they are 3.5 times as likely to suffer a heart attack as those who carry the normal version of the gene, a team of DeCode scientists led by Dr. Anna Helgadottir reported in an article released online yesterday by Nature Genetics. Dr. Kari Stefansson, the company's chief executive, said he would consult with the Association of Black Cardiologists and others as to whether to test a new heart attack drug specifically in a population of African-Americans. The drug, known now as DG031, inhibits a different but closely related gene and is about to be put into Phase 3 trials, the last stage before a maker seeks the Food and Drug Administration's approval. Last year a drug called BiDil evoked mixed reactions after it was shown to sharply reduce heart attacks among African-Americans, first in a general study and then in a targeted study, after it failed to show efficacy in the general population. The drug, invented by Dr. Jay N. Cohn, a cardiologist at the University of Minnesota, prompted objections that race-based medicine was the wrong approach. Geneticists agree that the medically important issue is not race itself but the genes that predispose a person to disease. But it may often be useful for physicians to take race into account because the predisposing genes for many diseases follow racial patterns. The new variant found by DeCode Genetics is a more active version of a gene that helps govern the body's inflammatory response to infection. Called leukotriene A4 hydrolase, the gene is involved in the synthesis of leukotrienes, agents that maintain a state of inflammation. Dr. Stefansson said he believed that the more active version of this gene might have risen to prominence in Europeans and Asians because it conferred extra protection against infectious disease. Along with the protection would have come a higher risk of heart attack because plaques that build up in the walls of the arteries could become inflamed and rupture. But because the active version of the gene started to be favored long ago, Europeans and Asians have had time to develop genetic changes that offset the extra risk of heart attack. The active version of the inflammatory gene would have passed from Europeans into African-Americans only a few generations ago, too short a time for development of genes that protect against heart attack, Dr. Stefansson suggested. The DG031 drug being tested by DeCode Genetics affects a second gene, but one that is also involved in control of leukotrienes. Because the drug reduces leukotriene levels and inflammation, it may help African-Americans who have the variant of the hydrolase gene. 'It would make scientific, economic and particularly political sense to have a significant part of the clinical trials done in an African-American population,' Dr. Stefansson said. A spokeswoman for the black cardiologists' group, which supported the BiDil trial, said the group's officials were not ready to discuss the new gene. Dr. Troy Duster of New York University, an adviser to the federal Human Genome Project and a past president of the American Sociological Association, said he saw no objection to a trial, provided it focused on African-Americans with the risk-associated variant of the gene and took into account that people with ancestry from different regions of Africa might show variations in risk. But Dr. Charles Rotimi, a genetic epidemiologist at Howard University, said a separate study of African-Americans would not be desirable. The variant gene may be overactive in African-Americans because of their greater exposure to deleterious environments, Dr. Rotimi said. Dr. Cohn, the inventor of BiDil, said it was 'always best to study a drug in a highly responsive group,' rather than testing large populations where possible benefits to subgroups could be missed.

Subject: Making Much Out of Little From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 13:49:03 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/11/arts/design/11kimm.html November 11, 2005 40 Years of Making Much Out of Little By MICHAEL KIMMELMAN HERE are a few things you might not notice in Richard Tuttle's sublime retrospective at the Whitney Museum. Blue gels tint the wall at the entrance that has his early tin 'Letters' on it. The lights cast in slight shadow the shallow letters, which are a little like metal versions of toddlers' toys in cryptic alphabet shapes. 'Replace the Abstract Picture Plane' - a grid of painted plywood panels, jaunty and framed in white - is off to the right. It looks as if it stands out from the wall. That's because it does, barely: the panels extend beyond their frames by the width of the plywood (or twice that width where the plywood sheets are doubled), while the backs of the picture frames aren't quite flush with the wall. They hang a quarter of an inch away. Such whispering details, of which there are an endless number here, are at the heart of Mr. Tuttle's rapturous brand of intimism. For 40 years he has murmured the ecstasies of paying close attention to the world's infinitude of tender incidents, making oddball assemblages of prosaic ephemera, which, at first glance, belie their intense deliberation and rather monumental ambition. Never mind the humdrum materials and small scale. In the ambition department, Mr. Tuttle yields no ground to the Richard Serras of this world. He has dreamed up his work out of such ostensible nothings as a three-inch segment of plain white clothesline nailed at the middle and on both ends to an otherwise empty white wall. Notice the cord's frayed edges; where the center nail interrupts the plaits; how, because it is so vanishingly small, the cord commands a psychic space in direct disproportion to its size. Pushing the buttons of skeptics for whom such stuff doesn't even qualify as art in the first place, the work addresses anyone with open eyes and an open mind about the basic ingredients of art-making, not to mention a little sense of humor. Since the 1960's, and out of not just cord but also Styrofoam and florist wire and bubble wrap and twigs, Mr. Tuttle, now 64, has devised objects whose status is not quite sculpture or drawing or painting but some combination of the three, and whose exquisiteness is akin to jewelry. His show is a cross between a kindergarten playroom and a medieval treasury. It arrives as a second act, 30 years after his last retrospective at the Whitney traumatized the New York art world. Back then, conservatives naturally heaped scorn on Mr. Tuttle's inventions, which, as the critic Thomas Hess then responded in ArtNews, only attested to the work's deceptive radicalism. 'When you read such words as 'remorselessly and irredeemably ... egregiously ...pathetic ... a bore and a waste ... arid ... debacle ... farce' from a critic who once called Jackson Pollock 'second rate' and Willem de Kooning a 'pompier,' ' Hess wrote after Hilton Kramer's review in The New York Times, 'then it's probable that something importantly different has come to notice.' It had. But it was hard for many people to see. Mr. Tuttle started out making small paper cubes with geometric cutouts. Ostensible riffs on Donald Judd's heavy metal boxes, they substituted handmade delicacy and lightness for industrial weight, coyly suggesting a kind of innocence while extrapolating on art's fundamental role as language. 'Letters' followed, along with 'Constructed Paintings': canvases also shaped like nonsense signs, painted in catchy, offbeat colors, the shapes not sharp-edged but quavery, after faint pencil drawings. Mr. Tuttle, in nudging Minimalism toward personal touch and private speech, was here abetted by the somewhat paradoxical examples of Agnes Martin and Barnett Newman. Poetic discretion slyly combined with grandiose aspirations. The Whitney retrospective opens with his succeeding 'Cloth Pieces,' of the mid-60's, dancing across a far wall and spilling onto the floor. Exploring a no-man's land between painting and sculpture, they pick up on the same eccentric shapes as the letters. Lightly tinted, crumpled pieces of heavy fabric, hand cut and roughly hemmed, with no front or back, no up or down, made to hang on the wall or not, they also look best together rather than one at a time. Mr. Tuttle's early efforts occasionally favored metaphysics over sheer visual loveliness, although the early drawings, on which many works are based, place delicate marks just so on otherwise blank sheets of paper. They are like heavenly doodles, as ethereal as angels' breath. Organized by Madeleine Grynsztejn for the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art, where its presentation was bigger and more strictly chronological, the exhibition occupies the Whitney's third floor, which is ordinarily not a congenial space but now has been given an almost domestic feel. Works are hung close together, with aptly unconventional irregularity. (Many of them will rotate in and out during the run of the show, as works did 30 years ago.) The Whitney curator is David Kiehl, who, in clear psychic sync with Mr. Tuttle, has made the exhibition into something of a homecoming - the installation affectionately recalling aspects of the 1975 show while casting more recent work in newly designed galleries that serve Mr. Tuttle's high-minded, obsessive-compulsive predilections. Perhaps partly in reaction to the reaction against that first retrospective and in general keeping with the art world's turn from his own postminimal austerity toward 1980's extravagance, Mr. Tuttle allowed himself an increasing opulence in the late 70's. The evolution unfolds in rooms toward the back of the show. The first has Mr. Tuttle's utterly fine wire pieces from the early 70's: almost invisible pencil lines drawn on the wall; thin wires tracing the contours of the lines and springing from the walls, casting shadows that make yet more lines. Wall assemblages from the early 80's, in an adjacent room, which seems like a world away, look baroque by comparison: twigs, blocks, thicker wire and corrugated cardboard are joined into Rube Goldbergian confections, brightly painted, divinely balanced. To these Tinkertoy devices, Mr. Tuttle added light bulbs during the late 80's. Their shimmery effect, collected in the last of the back galleries, is reminiscent of a sacristy. How you approach such art is up to you. Purely abstract, made up of endless parts, joints and painterly marks that affect happenstance, they have no central focus, no beginning, no end, but sometimes a narrative peg. A group of palm-size drawings in faux-ornate yellow cardboard frames hang across a gallery corner (the corner and frames make a triangle), bearing gently colored marks and symbols inspired by Egypt. Watercolors, loosely brushed in frames shaped like railroad tracks, suggest Chinese paintings. Floor sculptures that resemble teepees summon up the Southwest, while those early wire pieces, making shapes from simple to ornate, are explicitly meant to allude to Archaic and Rococo art. But the beauty of Mr. Tuttle's art is ultimately in its concentration on materials for their own sake, and the space they occupy. He regards these the way we hope to be regarded - individually, patiently. If what results is sometimes a trifle, so is life sometimes. There is nothing more difficult in art than to make work that looks easy. A shaman with waferboard and colored tissue paper, Mr. Tuttle operates far above the run of ready-made conceptualists with their throwaway aesthetics, because of the urgency and occasional melancholy he brings to even the simplest things. It happens that the tranquil 19th-century American Luminist painter John Frederick Kensett is one of his ancestors. With Kensett, Mr. Tuttle shares a refined respect for plain material facts and a fascination with immaterial ones like light, which verges on the spiritual. A work like '20 Pearls (12),' painted on cheap pressed wood scraps cut into florid shapes, is a mélange of nature and culture, shot through with flowery pink, its central motifs thin washes of orange-gold paint that delicately shift in changing light. Standing near '20 Pearls (12),' looking across the next two galleries in the show, you may notice how the edge of a work called 'New Mexico, New York No. 14' in the far room lines up with the edge of the wall in the nearer room on which is hanging 'Sand Tree 2.' 'New Mexico, New York No. 14' is shaped like a droopy red envelope with a needle's eye looping across its middle. 'Sand Tree 2' deploys a large, irregular green ovoid with a clutter of small wood crosses, from which issue forth broken Styrofoam chunks embedded with curling strips of red paper. The chunks skip up to the end of the wall. So from the doorway they can meet up in your line of sight with 'New Mexico, New York No. 14' - the wood crosses of one bookending the needle's eye of the other, making a fresh, third work. It is not a coincidence. Nothing ever is in Mr. Tuttle's perfect world.

Subject: Marrying Off Those Bennet Sisters From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 10:42:11 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://movies2.nytimes.com/2005/11/11/movies/11prid.html November 11, 2005 Marrying Off Those Bennet Sisters Again, but This Time Elizabeth Is a Looker By STEPHEN HOLDEN The sumptuous new screen adaptation of Jane Austen's 'Pride and Prejudice' has so much to recommend it that it seems almost churlish to point out that its plucky, clever heroine, Elizabeth Bennet, played by Keira Knightley, is not exactly the creature described in the 1813 novel. The second of five well-brought-up but impecunious Bennet sisters, whose fluttery mother (Brenda Blethyn) desperately schemes to marry them off to men of means, Elizabeth prevails in the novel through her wit and honesty, not through stunning physical beauty. Among the five, the belle of the ball is Elizabeth's older sister, Jane (Rosamund Pike), who is as demure and private as Elizabeth is outspoken and opinionated. But because Ms. Knightley is, in a word, a knockout, the balance has shifted. When this 20-year-old star is on the screen, which is much of the time, you can barely take your eyes off her. Her radiance so suffuses the film that it's foolish to imagine Elizabeth would be anyone's second choice. Once you've accepted this critical adjustment made by Joe Wright, a British television director in his feature film debut, 'Pride & Prejudice' gathers you up on its white horse and gallops off into the sunset. Along the way, it serves a continuing banquet of high-end comfort food perfectly cooked and seasoned to Anglophilic tastes. In its final minutes, it makes you believe in true love, the union of soul mates, happily-ever-after and all the other stuff a romantic comedy promises but so seldom delivers. For one misty-eyed moment, order reigns in the universe. If the depth and complexity of the movie can't match those of the five-hour British mini-series with Jennifer Ehle and Colin Firth that was shown on A&E a decade ago, how could they, given the time constraints of a feature film (128 minutes, in this case)? But in a little more than two hours, Mr. Wright and the screenwriter, Deborah Moggach, have created as satisfyingly rich and robust a fusion of romance, historical detail and genial social satire as the time allows. Matthew Macfadyen finds a human dimension in the taciturn landowner Fitzwilliam Darcy that was missing in earlier, more conventionally heroic portrayals. Mr. Firth might have been far more dashing, but Mr. Macfadyen's portrayal of the character as a shy, awkward suitor whose seeming arrogance camouflages insecurity and deep sensitivity is more realistic. Isolated by his wealth, ethical high-mindedness and fierce critical intelligence, Mr. Darcy is as stubborn in his idealism as Elizabeth is in hers. The disparity between his diffidence and her forthrightness makes the lovers' failure to connect more than a delaying tactic to keep the story churning forward; it's a touching tale of misread signals. The movie unfolds as a sweeping ensemble piece in which many of the characters outside the lovers' orbit are seen through a Dickensian comic lens. Ms. Blethyn's mother is a dithery, squawking hysteric; Donald Sutherland's father a shaggy, long-suffering curmudgeon with a soft heart; and the Bennet sisters, except for Elizabeth and Jane, a gaggle of pretentious flibbertigibbets. Jena Malone, as the saucy, boy-crazy youngest daughter, Lydia, offers an amusing caricature of teenage idiocy and entitlement. William Collins (Tom Hollander), the priggish, self-satisfied clergyman Elizabeth rejects, to her mother's horror, is mocked for his short stature as well as his puffed-up airs. Late in the movie, Dame Judi Dench storms onto the screen as Mr. Darcy's imperious aunt, Lady Catherine de Bourg, to offer a tutorial on British snobbery. Elocution curdled with contempt and kept on ice; upwardly tilted facial posturing with narrowing eyes; and the deployment of artful humiliation, as when Lady Catherine coerces Elizabeth into playing the piano (very badly): all are laid out to be studied by mean-spirited future grandes dames on both sides of the Atlantic. In the film's most intoxicating scenes, the camera plunges into the thick of the crowded balls attended with delirious anticipation by the Bennet sisters and moves with the dancers as they carry on breathless, broken conversations while whirling past one another. That mood of voluptuous excitement, barely contained, is augmented by Dario Marianelli's score, which takes the sound and style of late 18th- and early 19th-century piano music in increasingly romantic directions. The movie skillfully uses visuals to comment on economic and class divisions. The humble Bennet estate, in which farm animals roam outside the house, is contrasted with some of the world's most gorgeous palaces and formal gardens, all filmed with a Realtor's drooling eye. Burghley House, a resplendent mid-16th-century palace in Lincolnshire, doubles as Lady Catherine's home, Rosings. At Chatsworth House in Derbyshire, the largest private country house in England, which substitutes for Mr. Darcy's home, Pemberley, the movie pauses to make a quick tour of a sculpture gallery. For all its romantic gloss and finery, the film still reflects Austen's keen scrutiny of social mobility and the Darwinian struggle of the hungriest to advance by wielding whatever leverage is at hand. This is a world in which, for a woman, an advantageous marriage made at an early age is tantamount to safety from the jungle. As the tide of feminism that crested two decades ago recedes and the old advance-and-retreat games of courtship return, 'Pride & Prejudice' speaks wistfully to the moment. Elizabeth Bennet and Fitzwilliam Darcy are tantalizing early prototypes for a Katharine Hepburn-Spencer Tracy ideal of lovers as brainy, passionate sparring partners. That the world teems with fantasies of Mr. Darcy and his ilk there is no doubt. How many of his type are to be found outside the pages of a novel, however, is another matter.

Subject: Rise of American Democracy From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 10:40:11 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/books/review/13wood.html November 13, 2005 'The Rise of American Democracy': A Constant Struggle By GORDON S. WOOD This enormous book by Sean Wilentz has been in the works a long time, and the results are nothing less than monumental. An old-fashioned account of the rise of democracy during the first half of the 19th century, it is a tour de force of historical compilation and construction that more than justifies all the articles and monographs on antebellum politics written by historians over the past several decades. Wilentz, the Dayton-Stockton professor of history at Princeton, has drawn extensively on these secondary sources and on his own research. He has brought it all together into a clear and generally readable narrative. Coming in at just over a thousand pages, 'The Rise of American Democracy' is one of the longest works of history to appear recently, and this at a time when most histories and biographies are getting shorter, presumably because of our reduced attention spans. Wilentz makes no concessions to his readers' patience. He has filled his book with an extraordinary multitude of details about nearly every conceivable aspect of antebellum politics, both at the state and federal levels. Of course, since context is everything in history, excessive detail of this kind warms a historian's heart, though whether anyone except a few scholars and information-hungry graduate students will have the stamina actually to slog through such an enormous work remains to be seen. Awesome in its coverage of political events, this is a long, long read. Wilentz's first book, 'Chants Democratic' (1984), was a celebrated study of the rise of the working class in the early Republic, an especially appropriate subject for a scholar known for his devotion to liberal causes and the Democratic Party. This new book is an outgrowth of that earlier work, but it is not likely to receive similar acclaim from the scholarly left; for it very much runs against the flow of current academic trends. Most historians today, especially those writing about the period Wilentz is concerned with - the period of the early Republic from Jefferson to Lincoln - are interested in what they call 'the new political history.' They seek to transcend the usual stuff of politics - elections, parties and the political maneuvering of elite white males in government - and to provide a history that views politics through the lenses of race, gender and popular culture. So they devote themselves primarily to the symbols and theatrics of politics - the various ways common people, including women and blacks, expressed themselves and participated in the political process, whether in parades, costume or drinking toasts. These historians believe culture trumps policy and power. They explicitly reject any sort of narrative of dead white males bringing about the triumph of democracy within the two-party system. This, however, is the very subject of Wilentz's book. Wilentz is well aware of the new political history. Indeed, elsewhere he has expressed his contempt for it, assailing it as filled with 'bargain basement Nietzsche and Foucault, admixed with earnest American do-goodism, that still passes for 'theory' in much of the academy.' In opposition to the fashionable emphasis on culture, he wants, he says, to highlight the independent existence and importance of politics. However significant social and cultural developments were to the American people in the early Republic, these developments, he claims, were perceived primarily in political terms - 'as struggles over contending ideas of democracy.' From the late 19th century to our own day we are apt to see economics, society or culture as the ground for politics and political institutions. But, Wilentz says, for the people of the early Republic, politics, government and constitutional order, not economics, not society, not culture, were still the major means by which the world and the men who ran it were interpreted. He therefore feels justified in making this in-your-face challenge to the new political historians and in writing this old-fashioned narrative. By focusing on men like Jefferson, Jackson and Lincoln, however, he does 'not mean to say the presidents and other great men were solely responsible for the vicissitudes of American politics,' since ordinary Americans had a profound influence on the exercise of power. 'But just as political leaders did not create American democracy out of thin air, so the masses of Americans did not simply force their way into the corridors of power.' Leaders were always important. It is a fact of life, he writes, 'that some individuals have more influence on history than others,' even if they cannot make history as they please. Conceived as a narrative, his book, Wilentz explains, 'can be read as a chronicle of American politics from the Revolution to the Civil War with the history of democracy at its center, or as an account of how democracy arose in the United States (and with what consequences) in the context of its time.' His huge work is divided into three sections, each a good-sized book in itself: the first (almost 200 pages), entitled 'The Crisis of the New Order,' on the Jeffersonians; the second and the heart of the book (340 pages), entitled 'Democracy Ascendant,' on the Jacksonians; and the third (270 pages), entitled 'Slavery and the Crisis of American Democracy,' on the coming of the Civil War. These sections are bounded by a prologue and an epilogue. The rise of democracy, Wilentz points out, was not a given from the outset. It 'developed piecemeal, by fits and starts, at the state and local as well as the national level.' It emerged, he says, through a constant struggle among different groups that cut across distinctions of wealth, power and interest (though they often claim the same democratic ideals). In order to demonstrate this struggle, Wilentz takes us through all the national elections (and some of the state ones), the presidential administrations, many of the Congressional bills passed and defeated, and much of the complicated political maneuvering of the period. This accumulation of detail nicely recaptures some of the contingency of day-to-day politics that the participants experienced. Along the way Wilentz offers some beautifully drawn and concise vignettes of important events - like the antislavery printer Elijah Lovejoy's martyrdom, the Amistad affair, the Dorr Rebellion of dissidents in Rhode Island and John Brown's raid - that are better than many book-length accounts. We can get some idea of where Wilentz is coming from by noting the book that seems to have most influenced him - Arthur Schlesinger Jr.'s Pulitzer Prize-winning history, 'The Age of Jackson.' Before Schlesinger's book appeared in 1945, Wilentz writes, 'historians thought of American democracy as the product of an almost mystical frontier or agrarian egalitarianism.' But Schlesinger, reflecting the New Deal perspective of the time, 'toppled that interpretation by placing democracy's origins firmly in the context of the founding generation's ideas about the few and the many, and by seeing democracy's expansion as an outcome of struggles between classes, not sections.' 'The Age of Jackson,' Wilentz says, located the origin of modern liberal politics in the belief of Jefferson and Jackson that the demands of the future, in Schlesinger's words, 'will best be met by a society in which no single group is able to sacrifice democracy and liberty to its own interests.' In 1945, the interest group Schlesinger was most worried about was what he labeled 'the business community' or 'the capitalists.' Although Wilentz is too sophisticated to posit something as crude as 'the business community,' he nevertheless believes that some sort of class struggle lay behind the politics of the antebellum period. In other words, he writes as a good liberal, but an old-fashioned New Deal one. Like Schlesinger in 1945, he wants in 2005 to speak to the liberalism of the modern Democratic Party. By suggesting that the race, gender and cultural issues that drive much of the modern left are not central to the age of Jackson, Wilentz seems to imply that they should not be central to the future of the present-day Democratic Party. As he was for Schlesinger, Andrew Jackson is Wilentz's hero. Jackson's presidential victory in 1828, he writes, 'marked the culmination of more than 30 years of American democratic development.' In fact, Wilentz may help to recover the descriptive rubric 'the age of Jackson,' which has fallen out of favor since Schlesinger wrote his book. In his account of the politics of the time, Wilentz includes all the usual personalities and anecdotes - the Eaton affair, the clashes with Calhoun, the Bank veto - and he generally comes down on the side of Jackson and the Jacksonians. He even makes credible Jackson's radical monetary actions, including the bizarre policy of removing all the federal government's specie deposits from state banks and placing them in the Treasury vaults, where they would have little effect on the money supply or the economy. In 1957, Bray Hammond, in his Pulitzer Prize-winning study, 'Banks and Politics in America from the Revolution to the Civil War,' severely criticized Jackson's banking and monetary policies, suggesting that they were backed by state bankers and others who wanted a free hand in running their commercial affairs. But Wilentz shows that Jackson, unlike Jefferson, was no promoter of laissez-faire economics. Instead, his antibank policies were devised to keep private interests, particularly speculative and business interests, out of the government. 'The key to Jacksonian politics,' Wilentz says, was 'a belief that relatively small groups of self-interested men were out to destroy majority rule and, with it, the Constitution.' The Jacksonian Democrats 'assumed that politics and government institutions remained the primary locus of power,' and that power was to be used to protect the majority of 'producers' - farmers, mechanics and other workers in the society - from 'a nonproducer elite' composed of bankers, speculators and other moneyed men. 'If they did not invent democracy,' he writes, 'the Jacksonians did make this way of thinking the basic credo of American liberal democracy.' There's a hint in all this history that the present-day Democratic Party might greatly improve its bearings by going back to its Jacksonian roots. These days, most historians would not look to Jackson for anything worthwhile. Indeed, modern scholars have bashed Jackson nearly as much as they have Jefferson, picturing him as a raging fanatic, a passionate slaveholder and a violent Indian-hater who removed Native Americans to the trans-Mississippi West and created the 'trail of tears.' This sort of criticism did not exist 60 years ago. Schlesinger never even mentioned Indian removal in 'The Age of Jackson'; in fact, he has no entry for Indians in his index. Unlike Schlesinger, however, Wilentz confronts the issue head on, offering a generally impartial account. Nor does he deny the many contradictions and dilemmas of Jacksonian egalitarianism, especially on racial matters and slavery. He concedes, for example, that the Jacksonians celebrated the expansion of white suffrage in some of the Northern states in the 1830's, giving the vote even to white aliens, at the very time they were taking the franchise away from free blacks who had voted for a generation or more (mostly for Federalists and Whigs). Wilentz also admits that the Jacksonians tolerated slavery and were friendlier than their opponents to efforts that would widen its spread. But he denies the charge of some historians that this made the Jacksonians a proslavery party. In short, he makes no attempt to hide the flaws of either Jackson or the Jacksonian Democrats. He does, however, provide as powerful a defense of Jackson and Jacksonianism as we are likely to get in this day and age. Wilentz insists that the various recent interpretations of the Jacksonian era contain only partial truths. These are the studies that emphasize an entrepreneurial consensus over economic conflicts; that believe religion, ethnicity and other cultural issues drove Jacksonian politics; that contend the Jacksonian Democratic Party was an alliance of slaveholders and racists eager to clear out the Indians in order to make the imperial republic safe for slavery; and that depict Jacksonianism as a movement of subsistence farmers and urban workers resisting capitalism. 'All of them,' he says, 'slight the dynamic and unstable character of the Democracy's rise and development, and the primacy of politics and political thinking in the conflicts of the era.' And none of them can take away from the fact that the Jacksonians 'created the first mass democratic national political party in modern history.' Wilentz is especially anxious to distinguish the Jacksonian Democrats from the Whigs. The Democrats, he writes, were economic radicals intent on creating a hard-money currency regulated by the federal government. By contrast, the Whigs believed in a 'credit-and-paper, boom-and-bust' economic system. Moreover, he denies the claim of some historians that the Whigs were the optimistic party of active government and the Democrats the pessimistic party of laissez-faire. If anything, he says, the opposite was true. To Wilentz the Whigs resemble the Republicans of today. 'As long as the Whigs appeared to be the party of the rich and privileged,' he says, 'they would never win a national election.' But in 1840 they reinvented themselves as the party of the people. 'For the Whigs to purport to represent the people,' Wilentz says, 'they had to talk more like the people, or how they thought the people talked.' So they stressed American exceptionalism, denied the existence of classes and 'with a combination of calculation and improvisation' mastered the art of popular flattery, repackaging their message in order to bamboozle the public. The Whigs even had their own boy genius, the 43-year-old insider-manipulator Thurlow Weed. The Whigs, Wilentz writes, were especially successful in 'reorienting debates along ethical and cultural lines that cut across differences of wealth and class.' If they could have conceived of gay marriage, they would have used the issue. Good Democrat that he is, Wilentz cannot quite believe that the Whigs in 1840 (any more than the present-day Republicans) truly represented the majority of the people. The Democrats were natural democrats, the Whigs artificial ones. The Democrats never doubted that 'they were the constitutional party of the sovereign people.' Thus it was only a matter of time before the fraudulence of the Whigs would be exposed. It was the issue of slavery that finally destroyed the Whig Party. (Although slavery broke the Democrats apart, it did not destroy them.) A merica's politicians tried from the beginning to table the explosive issue of slavery - to bury it, postpone it and hope against hope that it would just go away. But it would not disappear. By the 1840's the many-sided conflicts over American democracy, Wilentz says, came to focus on the fate of slavery. By then it had become increasingly clear that the free-labor North and the slave-ridden South had developed two very different systems of democracy. While those two systems often appealed to the same ideals and values, and were 'linked through the federal government and the national political parties,' they were 'fundamentally antagonistic.' Despite the leaders' attempts to suppress these antagonisms, 'by 1860 the conflict could no longer be contained, as a democratic election sparked Southern secession and the war that would determine American democracy's future.' It is one of the many ironies of American history that the wildfire spread of democratic politics in both the North and the South eventually made it impossible to solve the problem of slavery peaceably. To learn how the triumph of democracy nearly destroyed the United States, this book is a good place to start. Gordon S. Wood is the Alva O. Way University professor and professor of history at Brown University.

Subject: U.S. Innovators From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 10:20:22 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/business/yourmoney/13invent.html November 13, 2005 Are U.S. Innovators Losing Their Competitive Edge? By TIMOTHY L. O'BRIEN Baltimore WHEN James E. West was 8 years old, he propped himself on his bed's brass footboard one afternoon and stretched to plug the cord of a radio he had repaired into a ceiling outlet. It was one of his first experiments. Mr. West's hand sealed to the light socket as 120 volts of electricity shimmied through his body, freezing him in place until his brother knocked him from the footboard and onto the floor. Like more storied inventors who preceded him, he was quickly hooked on the juice - even as he lay shivering from that first encounter. 'I became fascinated by electricity after that, just completely fascinated,' recalled Mr. West, now 74 and an award-winning research professor at Johns Hopkins University. 'I needed to learn everything I could about it.' Over the past several decades, he has secured 50 domestic and more than 200 foreign patents on inventions relating to his pioneering explorations of electrically charged materials and recording devices. According to the National Inventors Hall of Fame, an organization in Akron, Ohio, that counts Mr. West among its inductees, about 90 percent of all microphones used today in devices like cellphones, acoustic equipment and toys derive from electronic transducers that he helped to develop in the early 1960's. Inventors have always held a special place in American history and business lore, embodying innovation and economic progress in a country that has long prized individual creativity and the power of great ideas. In recent decades, tinkerers and researchers have given society microchips, personal computers, the Internet, balloon catheters, bar codes, fiber optics, e-mail systems, hearing aids, air bags and automated teller machines, among a bevy of other devices. Mr. West stands firmly in this tradition - a tradition that he said may soon be upended. He fears that corporate and public nurturing of inventors and scientific research is faltering and that America will pay a serious economic and intellectual penalty for this lapse. A larger pool of Mr. West's colleagues echoes his concerns. 'The scientific and technical building blocks of our economic leadership are eroding at a time when many other nations are gathering strength,' the National Academy of Sciences observed in a report released last month. 'Although many people assume that the United States will always be a world leader in science and technology, this may not continue to be the case inasmuch as great minds and ideas exist throughout the world. We fear the abruptness with which a lead in science and technology can be lost - and the difficulty of recovering a lead once lost, if indeed it can be regained at all.' A COMMITTEE of leading scientists, corporate executives and educators oversaw the drafting of the report, entitled 'Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future.' To spur American innovation, it recommends enhanced math and science education in grade school and high school, a more hospitable environment for scientific research and training at the college and graduate levels, an increase in federal funds for basic scientific research and a mix of tax incentives and other measures to foster high-paying jobs in groundbreaking industries. The report cites China and India among a number of economically promising countries that may be poised to usurp America's leadership in innovation and job growth. 'For the first time in generations, the nation's children could face poorer prospects than their parents and grandparents did,' the report said. 'We owe our current prosperity, security and good health to the investments of past generations, and we are obliged to renew those commitments.' The Industrial Research Institute, an organization in Arlington, Va., that represents some of the nation's largest corporations, is also concerned that the academic and financial support for scientific innovation is lagging in the United States. The group's most recent data indicate that from 1986 to 2001, China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all awarded more doctoral degrees in science and engineering than did the United States. Between 1991 and 2003, research and development spending in America trailed that of China, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan - in China's case by billions of dollars. Mr. West's personal journey has involved overcoming school segregation and racism, a reading disability and the downsizing of Bell Labs, the legendary New Jersey research center where he once worked, and he fantasizes about a day when children hold inventors and scientists in higher esteem than hip-hop stars and professional athletes. 'We need to bring the view back in this country that we're willing to make investments for the future because everything that's in the cellphone and the iPod today was known 20 years ago,' he said. 'I think scientists and inventors are a very peculiar breed in that we're not in it for the money - we're in it for the knowledge.' IT all begins with a tingle of curiosity. 'If I had a screwdriver and a pair of pliers, anything that could be opened was in danger,' Mr. West recalled of his childhood. 'I had this need to know what was inside.' That need links Mr. West to a rich tradition in American life and civilization. Benjamin Franklin, his kite lofted into the sky to coax electricity from the clouds, is the totemic American inventor whose financial acumen gave him time to ponder and then spout a series of inventions that included a stove, catheter, glass harmonica, bifocals and, of course, the lightning rod - which he declined to patent so it would be freely available to the public. No less a figure than Abraham Lincoln regarded the patent system, and the protections it offered for what he called the 'fire of genius,' as one of history's signature achievements. Shortly after President Lincoln's death, Thomas Alva Edison filed a patent for his first invention, an electric vote recorder. Edison became widely heralded not only as the creator of a longer-lasting light bulb and the phonograph but also as the inventor of the invention factory. When the conglomerate that eventually became General Electric began buying out Mr. Edison's operations in the 1890's, it represented the beginning of the corporate absorption of the inventive act. 'Edison marks the end of the individual inventor and the precorporate phase of invention,' said Randall E. Stross, a contributor to The New York Times who is also working on an Edison biography titled 'The Wizard,' which Crown Publishing plans to release in 2007. In 1932, a year after Edison died, corporations secured more patents than individuals for the first time, and a year later the Census Bureau eliminated 'inventor' as a job class, according to Technology Review, a trade publication. During the golden era of corporate research and development that followed Edison's death, G.E., DuPont, AT&T and eventually Lockheed, Eli Lilly, Intel and other corporate giants came to dominate innovation. And as that happened, some tensions arose between corporations and independent inventors and researchers. While tipping their hats to the scores of breakthroughs that have emerged from corporate labs, inventors also say they are concerned that bottom-line pressures at many companies may cause pure research to be eclipsed by innovation tied to rapid commercialization - leading to routine refinements of existing products rather than to breathtaking advances. A tug of war has emerged between individual inventors and corporations over proposed legislative changes in patent laws, with the inventors arguing that possible revisions would benefit the business giants. Corporations have argued that the system is equitable but flawed. Dean Kamen, an inventor whose creations include the wearable insulin pump and the Segway transporter, recently testified before Congress, calling for changes in the patent system that also preserve protections for individual inventors. Despite those tussles, Mr. Stross says he believes that recent technological advancements have helped to move innovation out of the corporate sphere and to 'give the lone inventor access to inexpensive tools and resources to once again be master of one's own lab.' Robert S. Langer, a research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a biotechnology pioneer, says that he shares the concerns raised in the National Academy of Sciences report but that he remains confident about the country's prospects. 'While I think we can always do better, I am optimistic about the spirit of innovation in this country,' he said. 'I think we hold a lead, but no lead is unassailable.' For Mr. West, whose career has spanned stretches in creative havens like Bell Labs, inventing has meant brainstorming sessions with fellow tinkerers and long hours walking the corridors of his own mind. 'I spend a great deal of the hours that I'm awake within myself,' he said. 'You never want to stop doing it, especially when it's a pleasure. It's vital to my existence and I couldn't live if I wasn't an inventor.' Ilene Busch-Vishniac, a Johns Hopkins professor and inventor who has collaborated with Mr. West for more than two decades, most recently on acoustical research, called him the quintessential explorer. 'For an inventor to be successful they have to think outside of the box and propose things that are wildly different,' she said. 'Secondly, you need to be able to figure out how to do the tests that evaluate whether something is plausible. Jim is great at both of those things, but especially at figuring out the tests.' Mr. West began testing his limits at an early age, defying his family's wishes that he become a dentist and setting his sights on a doctorate in physics. To dissuade him, his father introduced him to other African-American friends with doctorates - all of whom had failed to land university posts and held blue-collar jobs instead. Still, Mr. West pressed on, coached by a series of mentors, memorizing text and numbers to mask his reading problems, building on his mathematical gifts and eventually enrolling as an undergraduate in physics at Temple University. AFTER a summer internship at Bell Labs, he invented a pair of headphones; enthralled by his lab work, he decided to forgo his physics studies and to stay on at Bell Labs, where he developed microphone technologies and explored a range of interests in acoustics. When Bell Labs became part of Lucent after AT&T reorganized, the scope of its research operations shifted, and Mr. West eventually moved on as well. At Ms. Busch-Vishniac's invitation, he joined Johns Hopkins in 2000. Although he walks with a slight limp caused by a series of lower back surgeries, Mr. West looks much younger than his age. Like all inspired inventors whose fertile imaginations make them both researchers and artists, Mr. West also still manages to bring a Zen-like focus to his endeavors. 'If I'm concerned about what an electron does in an amorphous mass then I become an electron,' he allowed. 'I try to have that picture in my mind and to behave like an electron, looking at the problem in all its dimensions and scales.' He and Ms. Busch-Vishniac are currently analyzing solutions to noise problems in hospitals, and they are mentoring two local high school students and a Johns Hopkins graduate student who have joined their team as young inventors. The graduate student, Emily Nalven, 22, said she decided to join Mr. West after taking classes with him. 'Even on the days he didn't lecture, he came to class, sat in the front row, took notes and spent his time after class answering student questions,' she said in an e-mail message. 'One day, I asked him something about sound waves and he answered my question, then came back the next day with an even more detailed explanation to ensure that I truly understood.' The seeds of future inventions are sown in these kinds of interactions, but the possible erosion of fertile academic and financial soil in America concerns Mr. West and many others in science. 'The inventiveness of individuals depends on the context, including sociopolitical, economic, cultural and institutional factors,' said Merton C. Flemings, a professor emeritus at M.I.T. who holds 28 patents and oversees the Lemelson-M.I.T. Program for inventors. 'We remain one of the most inventive countries in the world. But all the signs suggest that we won't retain that pre-eminence much longer. The future is very bleak, I'm afraid.' Mr. Flemings said that private and public capital was not being adequately funneled to the kinds of projects and people that foster invention. The study of science is not valued in enough homes, he observed, and science education in grade school and high school is sorely lacking. But quantitative goals, he said, are not enough. Singapore posts high national scores in mathematics, he said, but does not have a reputation for churning out new inventions. In fact, he added, researchers from Singapore have studied school systems in America to try to glean the source of something ineffable and not really quantifiable: creativity. 'In addition to openness, tolerance is essential in an inventive modern society,' a report sponsored by the Lemelson-M.I.T. Program said last year. 'Creative people, whether artists or inventive engineers, are often nonconformists and rebels. Indeed, invention itself can be perceived as an act of rebellion against the status quo.' THOSE who keep an eye on corporate behavior say they think that sober-minded risk taking - and the support of daring research for research's sake - also needs to be on the strategic menus of more companies. 'When inventors work independently, the invention itself is seen as an opportunity, whereas in the corporate world accidents are seen as failures,' said Peter Arnell, a marketing consultant who coaches companies about innovation. 'When people exist outside of the corporate model and have vision and passion, then accidents and getting lost are beautiful things.' Nathan Myhrvold, part of Microsoft's early brain trust and the former head of its heavily endowed research arm, founded Intellectual Ventures, a fund that he says spends 'millions of dollars' annually to support individual inventors in long-term projects. Mr. Myhrvold started his fund about five years ago after he retired from Microsoft; he now backs about 20 inventors in such fields as nanotechnology, optics, computing, biotechnology and medical devices. 'As far as we know, we're the only people who are doing this - which means we're either incredibly smart or incredibly dumb,' Mr. Myhrvold said. 'There's a network of venture capitalists for start-ups that have created thousands and thousands of businesses, but very little for inventors.' Mr. Myhrvold says that most public and academic grants are for investigating well-defined research problems - and not for backing, as he does, 'an invention before it exists.' His staff of about 50 people files about 25 patent applications a month on behalf of inventors and his fund. He and his staff also help inventors refine ideas, pay for their time and labor and share ownership stakes in projects with them. 'We all love the goose that lays the golden eggs but somehow we've forgotten about the goose,' Mr. Myhrvold said. 'This decade I'm hoping will be the decade of the invention.' Whether or not a new inventive age is coming in America, Mr. West says he plans to continue doing what he's always done. He and Ms. Busch-Vishniac debate, regularly and vociferously, the merits of their respective ideas. But both say their debates are authentic exchanges of viewpoints, not games of one-upmanship. 'You can't have a big ego and be a great inventor,' Mr. West said. 'You constantly have to be listening and evaluating.' Even though he is halfway through his eighth decade, he is pursuing other new projects - collaborating with a colleague at Georgia Tech, for example, to explore improved methods of teleconferencing. Inventing, he says, is the intellectual bicycle that he rides each day. Looking back over the years, Mr. West says he has often gone down the wrong intellectual path. But, he says, that's just how inventors do their thing. 'I think I've had more failures than successes, but I don't see the failures as mistakes because I always learned something from those experiences,' Mr. West said. 'I see them as having not achieved the initial goal, nothing more than that.'

Subject: In Zimbabwe From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 09:50:55 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/international/africa/13zimbabwe.html November 13, 2005 In Zimbabwe, Homeless Belie Leader's Claim By MICHAEL WINES BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe - President Robert G. Mugabe has one word for reports that Operation Drive Out Trash, the urban-demolition campaign aimed at slum dwellers that his government describes as a civic beautification program, has rendered thousands of his impoverished citizens homeless. 'Nonsense,' he told ABC News in an interview broadcast on Nov. 3. 'Thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands. Where are the thousands? You go there now and see whether those thousands are there. Where are they? A figment of their imagination.' Clearly, Mr. Mugabe has not been to Bulawayo. Just three miles west of the center of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second-largest city, Robson Tembo and his wife, Ticole, live in the open air in a small pen, 12 feet by 12 feet, built of deadwood and scrap. Rows of plastic grocery sacks hold the assets they have collected over 72 years. Five miles north, Nokuthula Dube, 22, her two daughters and two orphaned relatives are squatting in an unfinished two-room house of cinder blocks. During a reporter's recent visit, an unidentified woman lay curled up on the concrete floor of the house's only closet, sleeping. On the other side of town, Gertrude Moyo, 28, lives with her four children and seven other families in tents, pitched in the bush. More than simple homelessness binds the three families. Until a few months ago, they all lived in Killarney, a shantytown with an improbable name that had housed Bulawayo's less fortunate citizens since the early 1980's. Today, Killarney is a moonscape of sunbaked dirt, scrub and burned-out rubble. Last May and June, police officers reduced its huts to wreckage, burned their remains and routed the area's more than 800 residents as part of Operation Drive Out Trash. 'They had iron bars as long as this,' Mr. Tembo said of the police, stretching his arms wide. 'They demolished part of every hut, and then they told us to destroy the rest.' Mr. Tembo said he refused, and so the police finished the job, leveling his two-room home built of wooden poles and metal walls. More than five months after the demolitions began, Zimbabwe's government continues to insist that the destruction of 133,000 households, by its own count, was a long-overdue slum-clearance effort that has caused its citizens only temporary inconvenience. The government contends that most of those made homeless have been relocated to the rural villages where they lived before migrating to the cities, mostly to look for work. Others, it says, will be placed in thousands of new homes being built to replace the illegal huts that have been razed. Mr. Mugabe has rejected the United Nations' attempt to raise $30 million to aid the victims of Operation Drive Out Trash on the ground that Zimbabwe has no crisis. Despite a public appeal by Secretary General Kofi Annan on Oct. 31, the government so far has rejected any assistance that implies that its evicted citizens are in distress. Yet many are in great distress. Relying on the estimates of Zimbabwe's government, the United Nations says 700,000 people were displaced by the May and June demolitions and a later campaign, Operation Going Forward, No Turning Back, in which police officers routed those who tried to return to the cities and rebuild. An August survey of more than 23,000 Zimbabwean households by the South Africa-based advocacy group ActionAid International places the number of those made homeless as high as 1.2 million - more than 1 in 10 Zimbabweans. Where many have gone is a mystery. The government carted thousands to holding camps that were later disbanded, and transported thousands more by trucks into the countryside and left them there, ostensibly near their rural homes. Those people are registered with local officials, but almost certainly, they are but a fraction of the total. In the Nkayi district, a vast expanse of bush terrain north of Bulawayo with 110,000 people, fewer than 700 families are known to have been relocated, according to church officials involved in assisting them. Similarly, the government's home-building plan has fallen far short of its promises and of the demand. Mr. Mugabe pledged three trillion Zimbabwe dollars for construction in July - about $30 million in American dollars, and dropping steadily given Zimbabwe's 400 percent inflation rate. But the national treasury is all but bare, and in Bulawayo, where 1,000 homes were promised in short order, fewer than 100 are being built. So where are the homeless? 'This remains what I'd call an invisible humanitarian crisis - invisible to international eyes, the reason being that those who were displaced have been dispersed,' said David Mwaniki, who oversees ActionAid's work in Zimbabwe. Many are probably with relatives; a few have fled the country. Others are in the bush, surviving off the kindness of neighbors. Many more have vanished into hovels and tents and half-built houses. The United Nations says 32,000 of Bulawayo's 675,000 residents lost their homes and were ordered to leave the city during the demolition campaign; city officials put the number at 45,000. Torden Moyo, who directs an alliance of local civic groups called Bulawayo Agenda, says there is no doubt where they have gone. 'Ninety-five percent are now back,' he said. 'They're still struggling, still homeless, still penniless, still shelterless. They've been made refugees in their own country.' Killarney is proof of that. Before the demolitions, it was dirt-poor but thriving, subdivided into three villages with stores and services. All that has been razed and burned. Northeast of town, not far off the road to Bulawayo's airport, Nokuthula Dube, her own children and an orphaned niece and nephew share the two rooms of a half-finished home. Ten stunted cornstalks and some greens grow in a makeshift plot outside, but the five live on donated cornmeal from a nearby church. Ms. Dube returned from her niece's school in June to find her home in Killarney's Village One wrecked and on fire. Homeless and pregnant, she lost her housecleaning job in a nearby suburb. Her husband, Nomen Moyo, had to move away to keep his job as a gardener. Ms. Dube said she and the children walked for a week, sleeping by the road, before finding the shell where they now live. In September, Ms. Dube had a daughter, Mtokhozisi. She left her 3-year-old daughter, Nomathembe, and the two orphans - 10-year-old Pentronella and 14-year-old Kevin - alone while she gave birth in a local hospital. She walked home from the hospital with her newborn. 'I left in the morning,' she said, 'and arrived around 3.' A few weeks ago, a man who said he was the house's owner appeared. 'He wants us to leave,' she said. 'He's claiming that this is his house.' Asked where they would go, she said, 'Only God knows.' Across town, Gertrude Moyo, who lived in Killarney for 23 years before being driven out on June 11, lives in a 10-foot-by-15-foot tent with her four children. Her husband died a year ago. She said the police first took the family to a transit camp for the homeless, then to the tent. Mrs. Moyo said she was told to wait for a new home. In fact, the government is building a row of houses next to her tent, and says they are for victims of the demolitions. But Ms. Moyo said the police had told her that her family was going not to a new home, but to a plot of farmland north of town. Robson Tembo and his wife drifted from one church to a second, then to a succession of relatives' homes before finally returning in late September to Killarney's Village Three. They built their scrap-metal enclosure not far from the two-room home in which they once lived, and which the police had razed in May. Once a miner, Mr. Tembo is now too infirm to walk very far, much less work. A son who cleans houses gives the couple maize; a second sometimes brings money. Mr. Tembo's great worry, he said, is that the police, who cruise up and down Killarney's main dirt road, will evict the couple again. 'I'm from Malawi,' he said. 'But if they tear down this hut of mine, I will stay here, because I have nowhere to go in Malawi.' Local church workers, who have assumed much of the burden of finding and caring for the homeless here, say that about 240 of Killarney's residents have returned, many living in the sort of scrap-metal lean-to's that the Tembos cobbled together. Down a dirt path, past the charred remains of huts in what was once Killarney Village Two, Mhulupheki Tshuma, 29, his wife, Ncadisani, and their 20-month-old son survive by scavenging plastic containers and collecting white pebbles, which Mr. Tshuma sells as decorations for graves. Two other children have been sent to live with relatives elsewhere in town. Mr. Tshuma was born here, and his parents died here. The family lived in a two-room mud hut when the police arrived in early June and burned it down. 'The only thing I took out,' Ms. Tshuma said, 'was the children.' After wandering for three months, they returned on Sept. 4 and built a hovel. The police demolished it on Sept. 29. Now they live in the open air, their living space bounded by knee-high mud walls and pieces of rubbish. Mr. Tshuma said the police returned early this month and beat him roundly, telling him he had to leave. But that is impossible. 'We came here,' he said, 'because we didn't have anywhere else to go.'

Subject: UN on Zimbabwe From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 16:37:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Taken from the UN internet site: Annan appeals to Zimbabwe to let UN help homeless after Government rejects aid Kofi Annan 31 October 2005 – Secretary-General Kofi Annan today appealed to the Government in Zimbabwe to allow the United Nations to provide humanitarian assistance to the country after the authorities rejected the world body's aid amid reports that tens of thousands of people there are still homeless and in need of help. 'The Secretary-General remains deeply concerned by the humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe,' his spokesman said, citing reports of continued suffering months after the eviction campaign that began in May 2005. Mr. Annan reacted with dismay to a decision by the Government to reject offers of UN assistance. In an official communication, the Minister of Local Government, Public Works and Urban Development stated 'that there is no longer a compelling need to provide temporary shelter as there is no humanitarian crisis' and claimed that Government interventions have addressed the most urgent shelter needs, according to the spokesman. The Government's position stands in stark contradiction to the findings contained in a report by the Secretary-General's Special Envoy on Human Settlements Issues in Zimbabwe, Anna Tibaijuka, as well as most recent reports from the UN and the humanitarian community. 'A large number of vulnerable groups, including the recent evictees as well as other vulnerable populations, remain in need of immediate humanitarian assistance, including shelter,' spokesman Stephane Dujarric stressed. He added that there is 'no clear evidence' that subsequent Government efforts have significantly benefited these people. The Government's decision to decline assistance comes despite extensive consultations on relief efforts between the UN and the authorities. With the impending rainy season threatening to worsen the living conditions of the affected population, the Secretary-General made a strong appeal to the Government of Zimbabwe to 'ensure that those who are out in the open, without shelter and without means of sustaining their livelihoods, are provided with humanitarian assistance in collaboration with the United Nations and the humanitarian community in order to avert a further deterioration of the humanitarian situation,' his spokesman said.

Subject: Mugabe receives standing ovation in South Africa From: Mik To: Mik Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 16:46:12 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Let's put this into perspective, this is a relatively recent article: South Africans don’t support Mugabe By Ian Macdonald, published 24/05/2005 The South African government has been criticised for engaging in what it calls “quiet diplomacy” with Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe. During an event to mark the 10th anniversary of democracy at the Union Buildings in Pretoria, Mugabe received a standing ovation from the attendees, seen at the time as tacit approval of his controversial land reform policies that have devastated the Zimbabwean economy.

Subject: African Unity and Mugabe From: Mik To: Mik Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 16:52:59 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Africa hopes for new beginning Flags of all African nations are carried by South African soldiers The AU is touted as the face of a new, democratic Africa The first summit of the African Union has opened in Durban, South Africa, amidst flamboyant celebrations and calls for a new beginning for the troubled continent. outh African President Thabo Mbeki, the first chairman of the AU, called the new organisation a chance for Africa to take its 'rightful place' in global affairs. 'The time has come that we must end the marginalisation of Africa,' he said in a speech at the spectacular opening ceremony. 'We must end many centuries in which many on our globe despise the people of our continent.' The new organisation is intended to be people-orientated, in contrast to the 'dictators' club' of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) which was formally wound up on Monday. It will also have 'teeth' and proper authority, with the first task on its books the creation of a Peace and Security Council, which, in turn, will establish an African peacekeeping force. An ultimate aim is for the organisation to have a single African parliament, court of justice and central bank, although leaders acknowledge it will be several years before they are likely to take shape. ..... Such nicwe words.... butr guess what: And while the AU is intended to promote good governance, there has been criticism of the leaders' acceptance of Robert Mugabe, a more controversial attendee of the AU's launch ceremony.

Subject: IMF on Zimbabwe From: Mik To: Mik Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 17:15:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: WASHINGTON, Oct. 5 (UPI) -- The International Monetary Fund says Zimbabwe's gross domestic product will fall 7 percent this year but the African nation projects a 2-percent rise. President Robert Mugabe also disputes the International Monetary Fund projection that Zimbabwe's inflation will hit 400 percent this year, the BBC reported. Zimbabwe's program of destroying shantytown traders has reduced activity and people's incomes. The seizure since 2000 of white-owned farms has crippled agricultural production, led to food shortages and boosted unemployment 70 percent, the Washington-based monetary agency said. 'Without a bold change in policy direction, the economic outlook will remain bleak, with particularly detrimental effects on the poorest segments of the population', the IMF said. HARARE, Zimbabwe, Nov. 1 (UPI) -- Zimbabwe's land reform is to blame for the food shortages as those given land since 2000 knew little about farming, the deputy agriculture minister admits. Deputy Agriculture Minister Sylvester Nguni was quoted in the state-owned Herald as saying while a few of those given land were committed to agricultural production, many others were doing 'nothing' on the farms, reports the BBC. Critics also have blamed the seizure of most of the land from white people for the food crisis. The United Nations has estimated as many as 3 million people will need food aid this year. The world body also has criticized the government for refusing aid to people made homeless by housing demolitions, the report said.

Subject: Give Peas a Chance From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 09:42:53 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/15/books/review/15ELLISL.html May 15, 2005 Give Peas a Chance By SARAH ELLIS THE PEA BLOSSOM By Hans Christian Andersen. Retold and illustrated by Amy Lowry Poole. HANS CHRISTIAN ANDERSEN (1805-75) was fascinated by the future. In ''The Swineherd'' he invented a surveillance device, a cooking pot that reveals what everyone in town is having for dinner. In ''The Philosopher's Stone'' he imagined the ultimate Webcam, a mirrored room that shows the doings of the whole world. ''The pictures on the walls were alive and moving; they showed everything that was taking place, no matter where it was happening; all one had to have were the time and the desire to look.'' Andersen's passion for devices is one link from his time to ours that seems particularly clear this year, the bicentennial of his birth. Another reason for the survival and wide-ranging popularity of his work is his unfettered exploration of desire. When he wrote of the desire for adventure, status, respect, acceptance, love and a chance to be fully human, he wrote without the safety nets of irony or a mature acceptance of the human condition. His sensibility is rare in a world of cool postmodern detachment, in which we value seeing through things more than we value simply looking at them. Children, however, have never much liked the po-mo stance and, like a child, Andersen took the unflinching stance of ''I want it.'' Nowhere is this raw intensity more evident than in his stories of the desire to cheat death. One of the lesser-known death-cheating stories is one whose title is usually translated as ''Five Peas From the Same Pod.'' Dating from the middle of Andersen's career, it begins jauntily with the musings of five peas as they grow in their pod and wonder what life holds. When they emerge into the world, a boy with a peashooter sends them off to their various destinies. Three become pigeon food, one ends up in a gutter and the fifth lands on a windowsill, where it begins to grow and blossom. Inside the room a poor young girl, dying from one of those 19th-century wasting illnesses, observes the growing plant and takes inspiration from its beauty and its unlikely survival. She recovers. Amy Lowry Poole dusts the story off and gives it new clothes in a picture-book version she calls simply ''The Pea Blossom.'' As she sets the story near Beijing, the new clothes are Chinese. Poole studied scroll painting in China, and she uses the tale as a vehicle for her illustration medium, paintings on rice paper. The pictures are gentle and controlled, and they are an unexpectedly good fit for Andersen. In his world everything is alive, from peas to darning needles to shirt collars. Poole captures this animation in her decorative settings -- a tree whose leaves are composed of animal shapes; a glimpse underground to a bustling, kinetic world of snakes, worms, lizards and growing vegetables. In contrast, she shows restraint in her humanizing of the peas. No big eyes or accessories here, just a simple face and a pair of sketchy, stubby arms, relying on their roundness to give them a delicious fat-baby look. In the text, Poole tailors the fate of the peas to the Chinese setting as well, as two peas end up in the emperor's rice bowl. She adds details from Chinese folklore, legends of sun and moon. All these amendments are very appropriate for Andersen, who was a traveler, fascinated by world folklore. He once wrote that he wanted to ''walk every radius, so to speak, in the circle of the fairy tale.'' The Chinese setting also solves a potential problem this 19th-century story poses for contemporary readers. A dying child and the redemptive powers of nature and beauty are themes that can skate very close to sentimentality. Andersen was well aware of this pitfall, and wrote that his work needed ''the kiss of a sunbeam or drop of malice.'' Here he leavened the sentiment with a sardonic touch. He told us of the girl's recovery and then gave the last word to the gutter -- the gutter where Pea No. 4 ended up, the gutter who believes that his pea, bloated and soggy, met the most glorious fate of all. Poole omits the gutter but, by setting the story in what is a faraway country for most of her readers, she establishes some artistic distance from the tale's potential soppiness. A poverty-stricken child, a hard-working single mother, a mysterious illness -- all these themes could have been played out on a stage much closer to home, but Poole's psychological chinoiserie makes for a version that is both true to the spirit of Andersen and suitable for the current picture-book crowd. Over the last two centuries, Andersen's stories have taken on the qualities of folklore. They are malleable, forming themselves to the shapes of our beliefs. Andersen's fifth pea is evidence of God's compassion. ''God himself planted that pea and made it thrive for your sake, to give you back your health,'' the mother says. Poole's fifth pea is evidence of individual virtue. In an author's note, Poole writes, ''I admired the fifth and smallest pea because, unlike the others, he was content to accept his fate, which eventually led him to a fulfilling new life.'' In this Rorschach approach to folklore, the fifth pea could as easily tell us that the peashooters of fortune blow us where they will and whether our lives result in good or ill is largely an arbitrary matter, or that if you live in a pod you naturally think the whole world is green, or that the gutter looks good to the gutter. THE Andersen bicentennial is being celebrated by new translations in French and Chinese, concerts, new critical work, a statue in Moscow, a new complete audio recording of all 157 stories, and the opening of an Andersen theme park near what the Frank Loesser song calls ''wonderful, wonderful Copenhagen.'' On the quieter book front, this year as every year, a new crop of children will drop into Andersen's world for a time. It remains a world of nightingales, flying peas, match girls and naked emperors, a world of devices and desires that seem magically tailored for you alone.

Subject: Low-Cost Credit for Low-Cost Items From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 06:21:35 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/12/business/worldbusiness/12retail.html November 12, 2005 Low-Cost Credit for Low-Cost Items By PAULO PRADA RIO DE JANEIRO - Márcia Regina da Cruz, a 40-year-old janitor and mother of three, decided to splurge. Ms. da Cruz, who lives in São Vicente, a coastal town an hour's bus ride from São Paulo, made a purchase in September equal to one-fifth of her monthly salary. She bought three irons - one for herself and two as gifts for her mother and sister - for 72 reais, or just over $32. 'It was a big purchase,' she said. 'I normally couldn't pay for it.' She could, though, because of a new policy at CompreBem, a supermarket chain owned by Grupo Pão de Açúcar, Brazil's biggest retailer. The plan allows her to pay for the purchase in 10 interest-free monthly installments of about $3.20 a month. Big retailers in Brazil are lowering the bar for what they will sell on credit. Though the country's shops and department stores have long sold big-ticket items on installment plans, Brazilian and multinational retailers, like Wal-Mart Stores and Carrefour of France, have begun offering purchase plans with monthly payments that come to no more than one or two reais - about 45 to 90 cents. The shift is an effort by retailers here to squeeze more spending from the big, but cash-short, bottom of the consumer base in Brazil, South America's biggest economy. Amid a tepid recovery that has yet to blossom into strong, sustained growth in retail demand, vendors are going to new lengths to help low-income Brazilians pay for everything from their weekly rice and beans to inexpensive items like clothes, radios, blenders and other goods. The installments are interest-free until a payment is missed, and then interest of at least 3 percent a month is charged. 'Retailers are trying to wring the very last bit of disposable income from consumers who would like to buy more, but often can't,' says Paulo Francini, an economist at the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo, an influential business organization. Low-income consumers - defined roughly as those earning less than 1,000 reais, or $445, a month - make up nearly half Brazil's population, according to government figures. A recent study by Target Marketing, a consultant group based in São Paulo, found those Brazilians accounted for only 11 percent of all consumer spending, representing annual purchasing power of nearly $54 billion. Manufacturers in recent years have developed new products to better tap that market, introducing low-cost versions of coffees, shampoos, even washing machines. When the Swiss food giant Nestlé discovered recently that some Brazilians give condensed milk as a present - a can retails for 2.30 reais, or $1.02 - the company developed a gift-wrapped version of the product. 'It's not about reaching a new part of the market,' said Ivan Zurita, chief executive of Nestlé's Brazilian operations. 'It is the market.' Brazil's erratic economic history made it a long slog for retailers to reach this market. Expensive credit - Brazil still boasts the highest real interest rates in the world - kept most low-income consumers from seeking loans. And years of runaway inflation meant stores were able to offer few affordable payment plans. But economic changes in the last decade helped curb inflation and laid the groundwork for what many economists believe is a nascent period of prolonged, if modest, growth. After years of stagnation, Brazil's gross domestic product in 2004 grew by 4.9 percent, the quickest clip in a decade, and is expected to grow by more than 3 percent this year. Slower inflation enabled stores to introduce payment plans for retail goods that many consumers once strained to finance - from tennis shoes and televisions, to refrigerators and home computers. So successful was retail credit, especially among the middle class, that price tags in many stores now highlight the cost of the monthly installment, with the total price in much smaller print below. Yet a big portion of the consumer base still struggles with bare necessities. That is why vendors recently began applying their credit plans to low-cost items, too. 'You want to make it easy for even basic purchases,' said João Carlos de Oliveira, president of the Brazilian Association of Supermarkets in São Paulo. The approach was evident one recent Saturday evening at a Wal-Mart in southern Rio. Price tags offer telephones in 12 monthly installments of 3.57 reais. A plug-in electric grill sold for 12 monthly payments of 1.87 reais. Wines, domestic or imported, were offered for three interest-free monthly installments. Wal-Mart and other big retailers use one central tool for such promotions: internal, or 'private label,' credit cards. Because many low-income Brazilians do not have bank accounts, retailers offer their own cards to provide credit to customers unable to meet the conditions for traditional bank cards. With no annual fees and low salary requirements - stores compute card limits using monthly income stubs - the cards offer many consumers their first experience with credit. They also give stores a platform to offer special card-only promotions, which foster user loyalty. At Carrefour, the second-biggest retailer in Brazil, the store card is now used in nearly 40 percent of sales, outpacing cash, checks and bank cards as the most frequent form of payment. Customers with a minimum monthly salary of 150 reais - half Brazil's minimum wage - qualify for the card and can use it for purchases as small as 5 reais. Purchases over 30 reais can also be paid, interest-free, in 5-real installments. Retailers are using the cards to attract those for whom even these requirements are difficult. Pão de Açucar, for instance, has a card it offers customers who were initially denied credit. Though the card cannot be used for payment, it allows customers to take advantage of card-only promotions and creates a tool to track the customer's spending habits. 'We can analyze their spending patterns and calculate a credit level to offer them in the future,' says Hugo Bethlem, executive director of the company's CompreBem and Sendas supermarkets. Brazilian banks want to cash in on the boom, too. Banco Itaú, one of the country's biggest private banks, has signed agreements in the last year to administer cards used by two big retail chains, including Pão de Açúcar. Last year, União de Bancos Brasileiros, or Unibanco, acquired Hipercard, Wal-Mart's private-label card. Now, banks plan to use the cards to offer services - like insurance and personal loans - to Brazil's legions of so-called bank orphans, consumers still foreign to the traditional bank branch. 'There's a huge segment of the population that we can only reach because of their relationships with retail stores,' said Antonio Matias, director of institutional relations at the Brazilian Banking Federation and a vice president at Banco Itaú. Márcio Caldeira, a street vendor, says he rarely uses banks at all. Sitting at the credit desk of a Sendas supermarket in Nova Iguaçu, a bustling, working-class suburb north of Rio, he says he wants a Sendas card to complement three other retail cards he uses to buy things like sodas, that he later sells on the sidewalk. 'Sometimes the little costs add up,' he adds, 'but they make it easier to finance my work.'

Subject: Consumption in Brazil From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Nov 14, 2005 at 12:34:56 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Consumption in Brazil

Subject: Confusion Is Rife About Drug Plan From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 06:20:27 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/national/13drug.html November 13, 2005 Confusion Is Rife About Drug Plan as Sign-Up Nears By ROBERT PEAR WASHINGTON - Enrollment in the new Medicare drug benefit begins in three days, but even with President Bush hailing the plan on Saturday as 'the greatest advance in health care for seniors' in 40 years, large numbers of older Americans appear to be overwhelmed and confused by the choices they will have to make. 'I have a Ph.D., and it's too complicated to suit me,' said William Q. Beard, 73, a retired chemist in Wichita, Kan., who takes eight prescription drugs, including several heart medicines. 'I wonder how the vast majority of beneficiaries will handle this. I fervently wish that members of Congress had to deal with the same health care program we do.' Mr. Beard was interviewed at First United Methodist Church in Wichita, where he and 100 other members of an adult Sunday school class recently received a two-hour explanation of the drug benefit from a state insurance counselor. Confusion was a dominant theme at education and counseling sessions held over the last two weeks in Wichita and in Glen Burnie, Md.; Fairfax, Va.; Urbana, Ohio; and Santa Rosa, Calif. 'The whole thing is hopelessly complicated,' said Pauline H. Olney, 74, a retired nurse who attended a seminar at a hotel in Santa Rosa, north of San Francisco. The drug benefit, estimated to cost $724 billion over 10 years, is the biggest expansion of Medicare since its creation in 1965 and is often described as Mr. Bush's biggest achievement in domestic policy. Bush administration officials and other backers of the plan say the new program can cut drug costs in half for a typical beneficiary, to $1,120 a year, with much greater savings for low-income patients. In his radio address on Saturday, Mr. Bush said, 'If you or someone you love depends on Medicare, I urge you to learn about the new choices you have so you can make a decision and enroll.' Beneficiaries around the country are flocking to Medicare workshops, where experts present them with complicated descriptions of drug formularies, 'tiered co-payments,' 'creditable coverage' and 'true out-of-pocket costs,' and caution about penalties for late enrollment. In most states, beneficiaries have a choice of more than three dozen prescription drug plans. Premiums, deductibles, co-payments and covered drugs vary widely. Many retirees also have other options: getting drug coverage through former employers or through Medicare-managed care plans. In Kansas, Medicare beneficiaries have a choice of 40 prescription drug plans charging premiums from $9.48 a month to $67.88 a month. Gene D. Peterson, 71, who attended the session at First United Methodist, said: 'The government asks us to sign up for a plan, but we have to figure out which drugs are covered by which of the 40 plans. For the average person, that's almost impossible. It's much too complicated.' Mr. Peterson is far from alone. In a survey issued this week by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health, only 35 percent of people 65 and older said they understood the new drug benefit. Those who said they understood it were more likely to have a favorable impression of it. Asked about beneficiaries' confusion, Michael O. Leavitt, the secretary of health and human services, said: 'Health care is complicated. We acknowledge that. Lots of things in life are complicated: filling out a tax return, registering your car, getting cable television. It is going to take time for seniors to become comfortable with the drug benefit.' Paulette Dibbern, a retired State Farm insurance agent in Wichita, said the government was not emphasizing an important fact about the new benefit: 'You must go out and shop for a drug plan and buy this coverage from an insurance company.' In principle, Mrs. Dibbern said, drug coverage for older Americans is a good idea. But in practice, she said, the new program is immensely frustrating. 'Federal officials seem to go on the philosophy, 'Why keep it simple when you can gum up the works?' ' she said. Mendell F. Butler, 76, a longtime member of First United Methodist, said he wished people could pay $20 a month for a simple Medicare drug plan, 'without searching out all these different companies you've got to buy it from.' Mr. Butler said he was deeply concerned about people who did not have the capacity to understand the decisions they had to make. 'With the new program,' he said, 'you go home at night, and your mind is totally boggled, so confused that you think, 'Golly, is it worth it?' ' Mr. Leavitt said beneficiaries could get help on a toll-free telephone number, 1-800-633-4227, and on a Web site, www.medicare.gov, which includes a 'plan finder' to sort through the options. Beneficiaries understand that Parts A and B of Medicare cover hospital care and doctors' services, and many want to know why Medicare does not have its own drug plan. The new prescription drug plans, though heavily subsidized by Medicare, are marketed and administered by private insurers like Aetna, Humana, PacifiCare and UnitedHealth Group. The Bush administration and Republicans in Congress chose this approach for two reasons. They firmly believe that competition among private plans will hold down costs, and they do not want the government to specify which drugs will be covered. Brian D. Caswell, a former president of the Kansas Pharmacists Association, said he spent two to three hours a day explaining the Medicare drug benefit to customers at his store in rural Baxter Springs. He encouraged them to take a look at the new program. But Mr. Caswell said: 'The program is so poorly designed and is creating so much confusion that it's having a negative effect on most beneficiaries. It's making people cynical about the whole process - the new program, the government's help.' Robert W. Nyquist, a pharmacist in Lindsborg, Kan., said customers had told him: 'This is just beyond me. I can't decipher which drug plan is cheapest.' Suzi Lenker, who coordinates insurance counseling for the Kansas Department on Aging, said that 'some people were in tears' at a recent session she held for 140 Medicare beneficiaries in McPherson. 'They did not like this newfangled change,' Ms. Lenker said. Bush administration officials said Medicare drug plans were offering more benefits at lower cost than had been expected. But that does not mean that a person's local pharmacy will be in every plan. 'In some rural areas,' Ms. Lenker reported, 'beneficiaries say: 'There are 40 Medicare drug plans to choose from, but my pharmacy takes only one or two plans. How does that give me choice?' ' Mr. Nyquist said he was doing business with only one prescription drug plan, Community Care Rx, offered by MemberHealth in cooperation with the National Community Pharmacists Association. If Medicare beneficiaries choose another plan, he said, they cannot get their drugs at his store, the only one in Lindsborg. 'We are not trying to deny access to people,' Mr. Nyquist said. 'We chose to do business with Community Care Rx because, in my opinion, it is the plan most friendly to senior citizens.' Food shoppers tend to like having a large variety of products and brands, but many Medicare beneficiaries are perplexed by the prospect of an insurance supermarket. 'In a grocery store, we know the products,' said Irwin Samet, 74, of Fairfax, Va. 'With prescription drug plans, we don't know the products. We are guessing.' After a two-hour class at the Jewish Community Center of Northern Virginia, Mr. Samet used a Yiddish word to describe his state of mind. 'Farmisht,' he said. 'Mixed up. All of us here are mixed up.' In Urbana last week, more than 150 people showed up for a Medicare seminar held by the Ohio Insurance Department. Joseph Rizzutti, 68, said he had found the seminar helpful, but would have to do 'a lot of research and homework' to choose plans for himself and his 88-year-old mother, who has Alzheimer's disease and lives in a nursing home. The Medicare handbook, sent to all beneficiaries, lists 43 drug plans available in Ohio. Edith L. Kohn, 81, who worked as a cashier in a grocery store in Urbana for two decades, said she had been studying her Medicare options for a month. 'I feel like I'm just about ready to make a decision, signing up for the plan offered by AARP,' Mrs. Kohn said. 'But the government has made this hard, and it should not be that way. I don't understand why they have to make things so darn complicated.' Even after attending the seminar, Raymond L. Middlesworth, 70, a retired truck driver from Urbana, said he was baffled. 'I've tried reading the Medicare book about the drug plan,' Mr. Middlesworth said, 'but I couldn't make sense of it. This is the biggest mess that Medicare has ever put us through.'

Subject: Medicare Prescription Drug Plan From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 06:10:49 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.medicare.gov/MPDPF/Public/Include/DataSection/Results/ListPlanByState.asp?dest=Nav|Home|State|ListPlanByState#TabTop Find a Medicare Prescription Drug Plan

Subject: How Much Will the Plans Cost? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 06:07:37 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.medicare.gov/MPDPF/Shared/Static/Resources.asp?dest=Nav|Home|Resources|Resources#PlansCost How Much Will the Plans Cost? When you get Medicare prescription drug coverage, you pay part of the costs, and Medicare pays part of the costs. You pay a premium each month to join the drug plan (generally around $37 in 2006 for standard coverage). If you have Medicare Part B, you also pay your monthly Part B premium. If you belong to a Medicare Advantage Plan or a Medicare Cost Plan, the monthly premium you pay to the plan may increase if you add prescription drug coverage. Your costs will vary depending on which plan you choose. Your plan must, at a minimum, provide you with a standard level of coverage as shown below. Some plans offer more coverage or lower premiums. Standard Coverage (the minimum coverage drug plans must provide): If you join in 2006, for covered drugs you will pay a monthly premium (varies depending on the plan you choose, but estimated at about $37). the first $250 per year for your prescriptions. This is called your 'deductible.' After you pay the $250 deductible, here's how the costs work: You pay 25% of your yearly drug costs from $250 to $2,250, and your plan pays the other 75% of these costs, then You pay 100% of your $2,850 in drug costs, then You pay 5% of your drug costs (or a small copayment) for the rest of the calendar year after you have spent $3,600 out-of-pocket. Your plan pays the rest.

Subject: Medicare Prescription Drug Plans From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 13, 2005 at 05:59:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.medicare.gov/MPDPF/Shared/Static/Resources.asp?dest=Nav|Home|Resources|Resources#DrugPlans What are Medicare Prescription Drug Plans? Starting January 1, 2006, new Medicare prescription drug coverage will be available to everyone with Medicare. Everyone with Medicare can get this coverage that may help lower prescription drug costs and help protect against higher costs in the future. Medicare Prescription Drug Coverage is insurance. You choose the drug plan and pay a monthly premium. There are two types of Medicare plans that provide insurance coverage for prescription drugs. There will be prescription drug coverage that is a part of Medicare Advantage Plans and other Medicare Health Plans. You would get all of your Medicare health care through these plans. There will also be Medicare prescription drug coverage that adds coverage to the Original Medicare Plan, and some Medicare Cost Plans and Medicare Private Fee-for-Service Plans. These plans will be offered by insurance companies and other private companies approved by Medicare. Like other insurance, if you join a plan offering Medicare drug coverage there is a monthly premium. If you have limited income and resources, you may get extra help to cover prescription drugs for little or no cost. The amount of the monthly premium is not affected by your health status or how many prescriptions you need. You will also pay a share of the cost of your prescriptions. All drug plans will have to provide coverage at least as good as the standard coverage, which Medicare has set. However, some plans might also offer more coverage and additional drugs for a higher monthly premium. If you have limited income and resources, you may be able to get help with drug plan costs.

Subject: Paul Krugman Talks to Campus Progress From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 17:32:35 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/11/paul_krugman_ta.html#comments November 12, 2005 Paul Krugman Talks to Campus Progress They say: CampusProgress.org | Five Minutes With: Paul Krugman: Q: What prompted you to write your November 4th column “Defending Imperial Nudity?”.... A: We finally reached a point where a lot of people are starting to acknowledge the obvious, which is that we were deliberately hyped into war, and a lot of defenses are coming up. People are still trying to pretend that nothing happened and it all made sense, and I felt that it was time to find a way to play how ridiculous that is. Q: I get the feeling that we’re living in a really good political satire. A: Yeah, or a really tawdry political novel. If you tried to make this stuff up, nobody would dare – they’d say that it’s ridiculous. Q: You’ve written economics textbooks before. If you had to imagine writing another textbook thirty years from now characterizing economic policy under various presidents, how would you talk about the Bush administration? A: Well, the answer is that there is no policy. What’s interesting about it is that there’s no sign that anybody’s actually thinking about “well, how do we run this economy?” Everything becomes an excuse to do pre-set things instead of an actual response to an event or a real problem. So, the idea was “we’re going to cut taxes on capital income, as opposed to earned income” and whatever happened became a reason to do that.... Q: Having been a strong proponent of globalization whose enthusiasm on the subject seems to have waned a bit, can you talk about where you stand now and how you think it might be most productive for students who work on this issue to talk about it? A: If you aren’t a little bit tortured about globalization, you’re not paying attention. I got into economics nearly 30 years ago, in grad school. At the time, development was too depressing as a field – there were no success stories. The club of rich countries had closed in the late 1880s, and there really was no way forward. The very good news is that there has been a lot of upward movement in select parts of the third world. All of that is based on exports, on the opportunities presented by globalization. You can’t be against globalization in general if you support third world countries making their way up in the world. The downside is that there have by no means been success stories across the board. On the one side, you clearly have some of the most vulnerable people in our own society that have been paying the price, and a lot of developing countries have been following the advice from Washington on globalization, and things have gone very badly. It’s a very mixed picture. What I want to hear is not “let’s rally against globalization,” but “let’s try to fix it.” It’s easy enough to say, but where’s the political constituency for that? Anyone who thinks of globalization as a great unambiguous evil hasn’t been paying attention. Anyone who thinks it’s a total good hasn’t been following things that have been happening in places like Argentina. Q: I recently got good health insurance for the first time in a while, and I can safely say how what a relief it is. Clearly the US lags well behind other industrialized nations in terms of our numbers of uninsured. Can we make the move to universal coverage? A: There are two questions there: one is economics, one is politics. The economics is really straight forward. Some kind of national health insurance financed out of a mandatory premium on all wages, a tax, however you want to do it – is clearly the dominant system. The US system is a patchwork with big gaps in it, Medicare, Medicaid, employer based coverage, it’s a mess. It’s the wonder of the world. We get worse results at greater cost than anyone else. We have enormous bureaucracy and administrative expenses basically because private insurers and lots of other players in the system are spending lots of money trying not to cover people. Now, politics, the trouble is, how do you do that? How do we achieve some approximation to a national healthcare system, given the political realities? The funny thing is, happy majorities in the American public, according to polls, favor guaranteed healthcare for everybody, so we’re not talking about something where the public is against the idea. What we’re talking about is a very powerful set of interests and a very powerful set of ideologues in Washington, who have managed to intimidate the politicians. That’s a really hard thing to get through.... Q: Obviously journalism isn’t your only or even your primary job. It seems like that lets you be more independent and more risk taking. A: Very much so. There was a long period, from September 2001 until early 2004 when I felt like I was really alone among prominent commentators in saying “hey, we’re being lied to, these people are not defending us, they’re lying to us a lot.” I think had I been worried about a journalistic career, about “will the Times keep me?” I would have been much more inhibited. But, the fact is, if the Times had given into pressure and gotten rid of me, my life actually would have improved in a lot of ways. Personally, it would be easier. Still, I don’t think it would be good if every op-ed columnist was like me. Journalism is a craft and there are things I can’t do. I can’t do investigative reporting, I can’t play Carl Bernstein....

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman Talks to Campus Progress From: Pancho Villa To: Emma Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 19:36:38 (EST) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: '... There are two questions there: one is economics, one is politics. ...'

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman Talks to Campus Progress From: Emma To: Pancho Villa Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 20:39:52 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: And, I am wondering Dear Pancho whether these are separable. I am thinking.

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman Talks to Campus Progress From: Pancho Villa To: Emma Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 20:49:11 (EST) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: 'And, I am wondering Dear Pancho whether these are separable.' No!

Subject: publish editorial From: Jim Asmussen To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 11:45:30 (EST) Email Address: jimasmussen@yahoo.com Message: I would like to run Paul Krugman's editorial on Medicare Part D in our small town (Neligh, NE) Neligh News and Leader paper. As a licensed Health Insurance agent, I think that Medicare Part D is a total scam on our seniors (I am one too). Please tell me how to do this. Thanks-Jim Asmussen

Subject: Re: publish editorial From: Emma To: Jim Asmussen Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 18:31:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Please send an email to the office of the publisher or managing editor of the New York Times, I am told you will receive permission to reprint the column.

Subject: Get Rich Quick From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 10:46:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/12/business/12money.html November 12, 2005 Get Rich Quick, Write a Millionaire Book By DAMON DARLIN Socking away that first million used to be so simple. At least it was for people who gave rudimentary advice on how to be a millionaire. Give up that pack-a-day smoking habit, they said, and in 40 years you will have saved almost $250,000 in today's dollars, assuming a conservative 4 percent annual return. Brown-bag your lunch, drop HBO and pay off your mortgage early and gradually, over a lifetime, you will accumulate $1 million in assets. Back then, all you had to do was live below your means and save, save, save. These days, the money-wasting bad habit that must be broken is the daily $5 Starbucks coffee break. (Savings over 40 years: $173,422.) But giving up the small pleasures in life is no longer the advice given to would-be millionaires, whether they are sipping or puffing. According to the spate of best-selling self-help books, it is not enough to drive used cars and squirrel money away in the company 401(k). Instead, you have to think like a millionaire. It's a popular message reflected in a spate of titles like 'Secrets of the Millionaire Mind' and 'Cracking the Millionaire Code.' Robert T. Kiyosaki's 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' is the best example of the emphasis on retooling the struggling American's financial thinking. The book has sold nearly four million copies in the United States since its publication in 1998. This week, it began its sixth year on the New York Times best-seller list for advice and how-to books. It has spawned a dozen related titles by Mr. Kiyosaki and his co-author, Sharon L. Lechter, and another dozen titles written by Mr. Kiyosaki's financial advisers. All told, there are more than 24 million copies of Mr. Kiyosaki's books in print worldwide. A folksy gambol through the life of its author, a real estate investor, motivational speaker and producer of a financial board game called Cashflow 101, 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' turned some traditional financial advice on its head. No longer is it enough to study hard at a good school and get a good job to be set for life, advice given to him by his father, the poor dad. Instead, Mr. Kiyosaki advocates the staples of late-night infomercials: investments in small stocks and distressed real estate. He argues that one has to think like a millionaire by recognizing the difference between an income-producing asset and a liability, advice given to him by a friend's father, the rich dad. The whole trick to financial success is creating passive income. 'People do respond to it,' said Rick Wolf, vice president and executive editor of Warner Books, the publisher of the series. The old rules no longer apply in a world of outsourcing and pension plan collapses, he said. 'People are definitely looking for some alternative pathways to financial freedom,' Mr. Wolf said. 'The staying power speaks for itself.' Gaining millionaire status is still an accomplishment. It's important to note that even though the threshold for making the Forbes list of richest Americans is now $900 million, only 7 million out of 100 million American households have net assets of $1 million or more, which includes, of course, the equity built up in most people's biggest asset - their homes. (Of course, Mr. Kiyosaki would say that reflects 'poor dad' thinking; a home is a liability.) That number has not changed significantly despite all the millions of books sold telling people how to join the club. You have to ask yourself before you buy any of these books: did my neighbors get rich because they just think differently, or because they use money more wisely? This millionaire-mind mania started in 1998 when two professors, Thomas J. Stanley, then at Georgia State University, and William D. Danko, teaching marketing in the business school at the State University at Albany, tried to answer that question. They described the seven characteristics of a breed of frugal and inconspicuous millionaires, which included living below one's means, picking smart advisers and having a spouse involved in the family finances. It was an eye-opener, and the book 'The Millionaire Next Door' sold about 2.5 million copies in hardcover and paperback while it perched on the New York Times best-seller list for more than three years. The book made the two professors millionaires. The lesson learned here? It may have been that the way to get rich is to write a book revealing the thinking of millionaires. Mr. Stanley is back with a brand extension, 'The Millionaire Mind.' David Bach, the author of 'Smart Couples Finish Rich' and 'Smart Women Finish Rich,' shifted gears last year to produce 'The Automatic Millionaire.' He gives safe, practical advice well within the mainstream of financial advisers, like invest through a 401(k) or make extra payments on a mortgage. He makes everything sound as easy as ordering a daily double nonfat latte, which by the way he advises you should not do. 'The book is both practical and deeply aspirational by nature,' said David Drake, vice president and director for publicity of Broadway Books, publisher of Mr. Bach's book. You'll get the same advice reading this newspaper or any number of financial advice columnists at no additional cost, though you may not get the urge to aspire. Why the need for inspiration? 'When the stock market bubble collapsed in 2000, ordinary Americans - who had watched their stock portfolios effortlessly rise in value during the late 1990's - quickly realized that the notion that they could outsmart the market was an illusion,' said Mr. Drake, who will publish Mr. Bach's follow-up in March, 'The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner.' He continued, 'They turned away from investment books that focused narrowly on stock-picking strategies and turned instead, in droves, to books that addressed the basics - getting out of debt, saving for the future - and promised relief from financial anxiety.' It is no accident that the authors of many of these books come from the stage of motivational seminars and late-night infomercials. Robert G. Allen, for example, is best known for pioneering techniques for selling people on the idea of buying distressed real estate and flipping it. 'Nothing Down: How to Buy Real Estate With Little or No Money Down' is his 1980 classic. He wrote 'One Minute Millionaire' and 'Cracking the Millionaire Code' with Mark Victor Hansen, who is himself co-author of 'Chicken Soup for the Soul,' one of the most successful inspirational self-help books. (The brand extensions have been stretched to include 'Chicken Soup for the Cat Lover's Soul' and 'Chicken Soup for the Preteen Soul.') Their books, as well as 'Secrets of the Millionaire Mind' by T. Harv Eker, another regular on the motivational seminar circuit, recycle a lot of the language and advice of those hotel ballroom talkathons; namely, you have been conditioned to think like a poor person, but you can remake yourself to think rich. Mr. Eker suggests a daily affirmation in which you put hand over heart and say: 'I am an excellent receiver. I am open and willing to receive massive amounts of money into my life.' You then touch your head and say, 'I have a millionaire mind!' But they are light on practical advice. And sometimes what they advocate seems counterproductive. Mr. Eker, for instance, recommends creating a fund just for frivolous purchases because you need to fill your inner spirit. Mr. Kiyosaki admits in his book that buying real estate at foreclosures or tax sales and investing in thinly traded start-up companies is risky. But he writes that salting money away each month 'blinds the person from what is really going on.' 'They miss major opportunities for much more significant growth of their money,' he writes. This is advice for people who like to live on the edge. Mr. Kiyosaki counters that the risk of failing is a motivation to make more money. The bottom line is: save your money by not buying these books. At about $25 a book, buying one every year probably will not decimate your retirement fund. But if you don't, you'll have at least $2,370 more in 40 years.

Subject: Peter F. Drucker From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 08:58:27 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/12/business/12drucker.html November 12, 2005 Peter F. Drucker, a Pioneer in Social and Management Theory By BARNABY J. FEDER Peter F. Drucker, the political economist and author, whose view that big business and nonprofit enterprises were the defining innovation of the 20th century led him to pioneering social and management theories, died yesterday at his home in Claremont, Calif. He was 95. His death was announced by Claremont Graduate University. Mr. Drucker thought of himself, first and foremost, as a writer and teacher, though he eventually settled on the term 'social ecologist.' He became internationally renowned for urging corporate leaders to agree with subordinates on objectives and goals and then get out of the way of decisions about how to achieve them. He challenged both business and labor leaders to search for ways to give workers more control over their work environment. He also argued that governments should turn many functions over to private enterprise and urged organizing in teams to exploit the rise of a technology-astute class of 'knowledge workers.' Mr. Drucker staunchly defended the need for businesses to be profitable but he preached that employees were a resource, not a cost. His constant focus on the human impact of management decisions did not always appeal to executives, but they could not help noticing how it helped him foresee many major trends in business and politics. He began talking about such practices in the 1940's and 50's, decades before they became so widespread that they were taken for common sense. Mr. Drucker also foresaw that the 1970's would be a decade of inflation, that Japanese manufacturers would become major competitors for the United States and that union power would decline. For all his insights, he clearly owed much of his impact to his extraordinary energy and skills as a communicator. But while Mr. Drucker loved dazzling audiences with his wit and wisdom, his goal was not to be known as an oracle. Indeed, after writing a rosy-eyed article shortly before the stock market crash of 1929 in which he outlined why stocks prices would rise, he pledged to himself to stay away from gratuitous predictions. Instead, his views about where the world was headed generally arose out of advocacy for what he saw as moral action. His first book ('The End of Economic Man,' 1939)was intended to strengthen the will of the free world to fight fascism. His later economic and social predictions were intended to encourage businesses and social groups to organize in ways that he felt would promote human dignity and vaccinate society against political and economic chaos. 'He is remarkable for his social imagination, not his futurism,' said Jack Beatty in a 1998 review of Mr. Drucker's work 'The World According to Peter Drucker.' Mr. Drucker, who was born in Vienna and never completely shed his Austrian accent, worked in Germany as a reporter until Hitler rose to power and then in a London investment firm before emigrating to the United States in 1937. He became an American citizen in 1943. Recalling the disasters that overran the Europe of his youth and watching the American response left him convinced that good managers were the true heroes of the century. The world, especially the developed world, had recovered from repeated catastrophe because 'ordinary people, people running the everyday concerns of business and institutions, took responsibility and kept on building for tomorrow while around them the world came crashing down,' he wrote in 1986 in 'The Frontiers of Management.' Mr. Drucker never hesitated to make suggestions he knew would be viewed as radical. He advocated legalization of drugs and stimulating innovation by permitting new ventures to charge the government for the cost of regulations and paperwork. He was not surprised that General Motors for years ignored nearly every recommendation in 'The Concept of the Corporation,' the book he published in 1946 after an 18-month study of G.M. that its own executives had commissioned. From his early 20's to his death, Mr. Drucker held various teaching posts, including a 20-year stint at the Stern School of Management at New York University and, since 1971, a chair at the Claremont Graduate School of Management. He also consulted widely, devoting several days a month to such work into his 90's. His clients included G.M., General Electric and Sears, Roebuck but also the Archdiocese of New York and several Protestant churches; government agencies in the United States, Canada and Japan; universities; and entrepreneurs. For over 50 years, at least half of the consulting work was done free for nonprofits and small businesses. As his career progressed and it became clearer that competitive pressures were keeping businesses from embracing many practices he advocated, like guaranteed wages and lifetime employment for industrial workers, he became increasingly interested in 'the social sector,' as he called the nonprofit groups. Mr. Drucker counseled groups like the Girl Scouts to think like businesses even though their bottom line was 'changed lives' rather than profits. He warned them that donors would increasingly judge them on results rather than intentions. In 1990, Frances Hesselbein, the former national director of the Girl Scouts, organized a group of admirers to honor him by setting up the Peter F. Drucker Foundation for Nonprofit Management in New York to expose nonprofits to Mr. Drucker's thinking and to new concepts in management. Mr. Drucker's greatest impact came from his writing. His more than 30 books, which have sold tens of millions of copies in more than 30 languages, came on top of thousands of articles, including a monthly op-ed column in The Wall Street Journal from 1975 to 1995. Among the sayings of Chairman Peter, as he was sometimes called, were these: ¶'Marketing is a fashionable term. The sales manager becomes a marketing vice president. But a gravedigger is still a gravedigger even when it is called a mortician - only the price of the burial goes up.' ¶'One either meets or one works.' ¶'The only things that evolve by themselves in an organization are disorder, friction and malperformance.' ¶'Stock option plans reward the executive for doing the wrong thing. Instead of asking, 'Are we making the right decision?' he asks, 'How did we close today?' It is encouragement to loot the corporation.' Mr. Drucker's thirst for new experiences never waned. He became so fascinated with Japanese art during his trips to Japan after World War II that he eventually helped write 'Adventures of the Brush: Japanese Paintings' (1979), and lectured on Oriental art at Pomona College in Claremont from 1975 to 1985. Peter Ferdinand Drucker was born Nov. 19, 1909, one of two sons of Caroline and Adolph Drucker, a prominent lawyer and high-ranking civil servant in the Austro-Hungarian government. He left Vienna in 1927 to work for an export firm in Hamburg, Germany, and to study law. Mr. Drucker then moved to Frankfurt, where he earned a doctorate in international and public law in 1931 from the University of Frankfurt, became a reporter and then senior editor in charge of financial and foreign news at the newspaper General-Anzeiger, and, while substitute teaching at the university, met Doris Schmitz, a 19-year-old student. They became reacquainted after waving madly while passing each other going opposite directions on a London subway escalator in 1933 and were married in 1937. Mr. Drucker had moved to England to work as a securities analyst and writer after watching the rise of the Nazis with increasing alarm. In England, he took an economics course from John Maynard Keynes in Cambridge, but was put off by how much the talk centered on commodities rather than people. Mr. Drucker's reputation as a political economist was firmly established with the publication in 1939 of 'The End of Economic Man.' The New York Times said it brought a 'remarkable vision and freshness' to the understanding of fascism. The book's observations, along with those in articles he wrote for Harpers and The New Republic, caught the eye of policy makers in the federal government and at corporations as the country prepared for war, and landed him a job teaching at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, N.Y. Writing 'The Future of Industrial Man,' published in 1942 after Mr. Drucker moved to Bennington College in Vermont, convinced him that he needed to understand big organizations from the inside. Rebuffed in his requests to work with several major companies, he was delighted when General Motors called in late 1943 proposing that he study its structure and policies. To avoid having him treated like a management spy, G.M. agreed to let him publish his findings. Neither G.M. nor Mr. Drucker expected the public to be interested because no one had ever written such a management profile, but 'The Concept of the Corporation' became an overnight sensation when it was published in 1946. ' 'Concept of the Corporation' is a book about business the way 'Moby Dick' is a book about whaling,' said Mr. Beatty, referring to the focus on social issues extending far beyond G.M.'s immediate operating challenges. In it, Mr. Drucker argued that profitability was crucial to a business's health but more importantly to full employment. Management could achieve sustainable profits only by treating employees like valuable resources. That, he argued, required decentralizing the power to make decisions, including giving hourly workers more control over factory life, and guaranteed wages. In the 1950's, Mr. Drucker began proclaiming that democratic governments had become too big to function effectively. This, he said, was a threat to the freedom of their citizens and to their economic well-being. Unlike many conservative thinkers, Mr. Drucker wanted to keep government regulation over areas like food and drugs and finance. Indeed, he argued that the rise of global businesses required stronger governments and stronger social institutions, including more powerful unions, to keep them from forgetting social interests. According to Claremont Graduate University, Mr. Drucker's survivors include his wife, Doris, an inventor and physicist; his children, Audrey Drucker of Puyallup, Wash., Cecily Drucker of San Francisco, Joan Weinstein of Chicago, and Vincent Drucker of San Rafael, Calif.; and six grandchildren. Early last year, in an interview with Forbes magazine, Mr. Drucker was asked if there was anything in his long career that he wished he had done but had not been able to do. 'Yes, quite a few things,' he said. 'There are many books I could have written that are better than the ones I actually wrote. My best book would have been 'Managing Ignorance,' and I'm very sorry I didn't write it.'

Subject: Investing From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 08:11:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Also, there is a fine bull stock market in Europe and Asia. the Europe index is up 20.4%, while the Pacific is up 26.7% in domestic currencies. I am most impressed by how international stock market have compensated for currency weakness from Germany to Japan. The international bull makret is deep and very broad.

Subject: Brazil From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 08:08:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There is a significant potential problem in Brazil that should be attended. Brazil's stock market is up 22,2% in domestic currency, but 51.4% in dollars. As strong as the dollar has been this year, Brazil's currency is far stronger. Brazil's currency is the strongest of all currencies; there is no comparison. This remarkable strength has to eventually work significantly against the balance of trade, raising imports and cutting exports and limiting economic activity in Brazil at a time when interest rates are high and further limiting economic activity. Such an imbalance has caused problem after problem from Mexico to Argentina in the past, and I am worried.

Subject: Re: Brazil From: Mik To: Terri Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 16:55:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hhhmm that will affect the price of sugar, coffee and believe it or not - oil. All 3 may well go up now. Let's watch this one carefully.

Subject: Re: Brazil From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 17:26:23 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Agreed. Notice what I consider the dangerous strength of Brazil's currency. Strongest currency in the world.

Subject: Re: Brazil From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 18:55:39 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Sorry about losing a sentence fragment. I am concerned that Brazil will begin to lose its hard won gains in agriculture exports as the currency strengthens, either through increasing prices or lost profitability. Orange juice, soybean and cut flower markets may tell us much.

Subject: First for Africa From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 07:42:07 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/12/international/africa/12liberia.html November 12, 2005 In First for Africa, Woman Wins Election as President of Liberia By LYDIA POLGREEN DAKAR, Senegal - Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, a Harvard-educated economist and former World Bank official who waged a fierce presidential campaign against the soccer star George Weah, emerged victorious on Friday in her quest to lead war-torn Liberia and become the first woman elected head of state in modern African history. 'Everything is on our side,' said Morris Dukuly, a spokesman for Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf. 'The voters have chosen a new and brighter future.' With 97 percent of the runoff vote counted on Friday, Ms. Johnson- Sirleaf achieved an insurmountable lead with 59 percent, compared with Mr. Weah's 41 percent, in a nation where women make up more than half the electorate. Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf's victory propels her into an old boys' club unlike any other. From the Cape to Cairo, from Dar es Salaam to Dakar, men have dominated African politics from the earliest days of the anticolonial struggle. 'There are so many capable women,' said Yassine Fall, a Senegalese economist and feminist working on women's rights in Africa. 'But they just don't get the chance to lead.' Indeed, when supporters of Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf, 66, a onetime United Nations official and Liberian finance minister, marched through the broken streets of Monrovia in the final, frantic days of the campaign for Liberia's presidency, they shouted and waved signs that read, 'Ellen - she's our man.' Mr. Dukuly said Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf held off formally declaring victory because Mr. Weah, who won the first round of the election last month and enjoys broad support among Liberia's huge youth population, had alleged that the results were tainted by fraud. Mr. Weah told reporters in Monrovia that he had submitted a formal complaint to the Supreme Court, which will investigate. International observers said that while there were some minor irregularities, they were too small to change the outcome. Mr. Weah, speaking Friday to a crowd of supporters at his campaign headquarters, appealed for calm, but hundreds of supporters wielding branches marched through the streets in protest, chanting, 'No Weah, no peace!' They threw stones at police officers in front of the National Elections Commission, and United Nations peacekeepers fired tear gas to keep protesters from storming the United States Embassy, according to Reuters. Mr. Weah, whose base was the young, discontented population who idolized him for his exploits on the soccer field and his rags-to-riches life story, was seen as a favorite because young voters make up 40 percent of the electorate. But the women's vote appears to have been stronger. There were slightly more women registered to vote in Liberia, and while there were no reliable surveys of voters leaving the polls, women appeared to be a strong presence. Political strategy played a role as well. In the final weeks of the campaign, Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf formed crucial alliances with parties whose candidates had lost in the first round, which winnowed the field of 22 presidential contenders to 2. The impact of her victory went well beyond Liberia, a nation still trying to recover from more than a decade of civil war. The history of the continent rings with the names of heroes like Kwame Nkrumah, Nelson Mandela and Jomo Kenyatta, fathers of the modern African states they helped form, and villains like Mobutu Sese Seko, Idi Amin and Sani Abacha, the despotic 'big men' who ruled ruthlessly over their subjects, enriching themselves along the way. Despite the large role women played in many national struggles for independence, they were largely relegated to the sidelines in the post-colonial era. The most ambitious women often went abroad, and some, like Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf, rose to prominence in international organizations like the United Nations and the World Bank. But in recent years, African women have gained power and visibility. In 2004 a Kenyan environmentalist, Wangari Muta Maathai, won the Nobel Peace Prize, while Nigeria's finance minister and feared corruption fighter, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has emerged as one of that country's most respected officials. Women have also made gains at the ballot box. The prime minister of Mozambique, Luísa Dias Diogo, is widely seen as a likely future president. In Rwanda, there is a greater proportion of women serving in Parliament than in any other nation; they occupy nearly half the seats. Indeed, Africa leads the developing world in the percentage of women in legislative positions, at about 16 percent, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union, an organization of parliamentary bodies worldwide. Yet having more women leaders does not necessarily bring decisions that benefit women. While women generally make decisions that favor women and children, they often gain political power as an embattled minority that feels it must follow men's lead in order to maintain power, said Geeta Rao Gupta, president of the International Center for Research on Women, a Washington-based research group. 'When there is a critical mass of women leaders, they gain confidence over time and are more likely to exhibit diversity of experience as women in their decisions,' Ms. Rao Gupta said. 'It takes a few cycles to really sink in.' Liberia's presidential election came two years after the nation emerged from a brutal civil war that claimed more than 200,000 lives and displaced a third of the population. Pushed from power by rebels, Charles Taylor, the warlord who became Liberia's president and fomented bloody wars that racked the region for more than a decade, went into exile in 2003 and is now in Nigeria. He left behind a nation shattered by war, with the entire infrastructure, from roads to electric wires to water pipes, rotted away or looted. Despite its natural wealth in gems, rubber and timber, Liberia is one of the poorest nations. Ms. Johnson-Sirleaf, who has been known as Liberia's Iron Lady since she ran against Mr. Taylor for president in 1997 and was jailed for more than a year under the former dictator Samuel Doe, will have no trouble fitting into the all-male club of African heads of state, said Ms. Fall, the economist, who has known her for years. 'She is fearless,' Ms. Fall said. 'No men intimidate her.'

Subject: Postcards From a Tax Holiday From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 07:24:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/12/opinion/12sat2.html November 12, 2005 Postcards From a Tax Holiday PepsiCo recently followed in the footsteps of Hewlett-Packard, Pfizer and other big American corporations by initiating layoffs - even as it takes advantage of a huge tax break that was supposed to generate cash for hiring. The tax break, passed by Congress last year as part of the American Jobs Creation Act, lets American companies bring foreign-held profits back to the United States this year at a discount of up to 85 percent off the normal tax rate. So far, nearly 100 companies have announced repatriations totaling more than $200 billion, all of which will be eligible for the cut-rate of 5.25 percent, instead of the usual top rate of 35 percent. As its critics warned at the outset, the so-called tax holiday has proved to be a bigger gift to shareholders than to employees and job seekers. PepsiCo, for instance, plans to give pink slips to 200 to 250 employees in its Frito-Lay unit a few weeks before Christmas. The company expects that the severance payments for laid-off workers and other belt-tightening measures will cost up to $85 million in 2005. But the company will save several times that amount in taxes this year by repatriating up to $7.5 billion in profits it has stashed abroad. So in effect, the Frito layoffs, like those at other companies with repatriated profits, are supported by taxpayers. And that's not the only way that investors benefit from the tax holiday that was billed as a way to create more opportunities for workers. A recent report in The Wall Street Journal documented that even as American companies were repatriating huge sums under the cut-rate regime, they were using more cash than ever to buy back their own stock. Reducing the number of shares outstanding gives each remaining shareholder a bigger ownership stake in the company. Hewlett-Packard has announced a repatriation of $14.5 billion, layoffs of 14,500 workers and stock buybacks of more than $4 billion for the first half of 2005, about three times the size of its buybacks in the period a year earlier. Since stock repurchases are not a legal use of repatriated funds, companies are claiming that the convergence of big buybacks and huge repatriations is a mere coincidence. Be that as it may, Congress wrote the law in a way that gives companies tremendous leeway to them spend profits as they fit. Companies cannot be blamed for doing whatever is allowed to cut taxes, increase profits and reward shareholders. The real villains are members of Congress who use phony labels like 'job creation' - and, more recently, 'economic growth' - to justify excessive tax cuts that increasingly serve to concentrate wealth among the few.

Subject: Filmmaker's Take on 'Butterfly' From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 06:38:00 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/12/arts/music/12butt.html November 12, 2005 A Filmmaker's Take on 'Butterfly' Is a Hit By ALAN RIDING LONDON - Cinematic adaptations of operas have generally met with only mixed success, occasionally pleasing opera lovers but rarely drawing legions of moviegoers. Yet film directors have often fared better when they have applied their screen experience to staging an opera in a traditional theater. After Luchino Visconti, Franco Zeffirelli and others, Anthony Minghella, the acclaimed director of 'The English Patient' and 'The Talented Mr. Ripley,' is the latest filmmaker to try his hand at opera. And already his production of Puccini's 'Madam Butterfly' for the English National Opera has become the hottest ticket in the West End. Twelve performances through Dec. 13 have sold out, and eight more performances will begin April 29 at the 2,358-seat London Coliseum. The show is a co-production with the Metropolitan Opera, where it will travel next fall, and the Lithuanian National Opera in Vilnius, which will present it in the spring. If nothing else, Mr. Minghella's show-business celebrity has pulled in the crowds, and the English National Opera, which performs in English and is something of a poor cousin to the Royal Opera House at Covent Garden, could not be happier. But audiences also seem delighted, and while some opera critics have been less enthusiastic, most have applauded the show's stylized evocation of mid-19th-century Japan. In The Independent of London, Edward Seckerson described it as both simple and sumptuous and added: 'It is the meeting of Japanese Kabuki and Western opera but shot through with the expensive air and finely tuned manner of a Broadway show.' Rupert Christiansen, writing in The Daily Telegraph, though, dismissed it as 'an elegant exercise in Japonaiserie.' In truth, many opera lovers tend to be fearful of productions of their favorite works by first-time opera directors bent on giving new meaning to familiar plots and melodies. But from the moment the curtain goes up on this 'Madam Butterfly,' it is apparent that Mr. Minghella has opted for a lush visual spectacle over an avant-garde interpretation. What makes the production feel contemporary is Michael Levine's clever design, with an angle-mirrored ceiling reflecting the action on about half the stage. The effect is to produce explosions of color, as players in rich Japanese costumes make their entrances at the rear of the raked stage. And when a curtain of flowers is lowered, this stunning image is also doubled by the mirror. The décor itself is simple, with sliding Japanese screens representing Butterfly's hillside home overlooking the Bay of Nagasaki. But the mirror also plays a crucial role in the final scene. When Pinkerton, the American naval officer, returns with his American wife to collect the son he had with Butterfly, the young geisha can be seen sleeping behind the screens. 'I wanted to make something as far away as possible from movies,' Mr. Minghella said in a telephone interview, 'but I am aware of the influence. I am very conscious of how to move the eye. In movies, you do this by moving the camera, through the lens size and by cutting. Here we kept thinking about how to direct the eye around the stage.' Another influence was Mr. Minghella's decades-old interest in Japanese theater, an interest shared with his Hong Kong-born wife, Carolyn Choa, the associate director of this production and herself an experienced stage and screen choreographer. Thus, Mr. Minghella said, in talks with the English National Opera, 'Madam Butterfly' emerged as a natural choice. 'I have always loved Kabuki and Noh theater,' Mr. Minghella said. 'When visiting Japan, I have loved seeing the bunraku puppet theater. I am drawn by these quite formal theater traditions.' As it happens, what most upset some British critics was Mr. Minghella's decision to use a puppet to represent the 3-year-old child of Butterfly and Pinkerton. Following bunraku rules, the puppet is moved by three onstage puppeteers, dressed in black, their faces hidden by veils. Writing in The Guardian, Tom Service lamented that, instead of focusing on Mary Plazas as Butterfly and Jean Rigby as her maid, Suzuki, 'you're gripped by watching the weird movements of this puppet-boy.' Some audience members were even heard referring to the little fellow as E.T. But others were clearly moved by its lifelike gestures. 'You can't use a real 3-year-old,' Mr. Minghella said. 'Usually the boy is around 6. So I have created the most truthful baby possible on stage. I think audiences are prepared to go along with suspension of disbelief. Some critics were not.' Aside from science fiction, of course, such a technique could never work in movies, but Mr. Minghella's own artistic roots lie in theater. And in this case, he said, he wanted to be as theatrical as possible, using not only the mirror and the puppet but also long red ribbons (for Butterfly's hara-kiri) to create the show before the eyes of the audience. Still, his first venture into opera involved some surprises. 'A film invents itself,' he said. 'Here there was an orthodoxy of presentation, a format which I had to learn. There is also the orthodoxy of the audience. Many people are seeing 'Madama Butterfly' for the 12th time. So, even though I want to present it as it has never been done before, I'm actually writing over every production the audience has ever seen.' The cast here was given mixed reviews, with most accolades going to Ms. Plazas and Christopher Purves as the American Consul, Sharpless. In New York and Vilnius, different casts will sing the opera, in Italian. Yet in all three cities, the production is likely to be remembered as Mr. Minghella's 'Madam Butterfly.' In London, at least, it already boasts the public's stamp of approval.

Subject: Is Central Bank Independence All From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 04:40:16 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2005/11/11/story_11-11-2005_pg5_23 November 11, 2005 Is Central Bank Independence All It’s Cracked Up To Be? By Joseph Stiglitz Alan Greenspan attained an almost iconic status as Governor of the Federal Reserve Board. So, as his term draws to a close and his mantle of infallibility is passed on to his successor, it is worth examining whether his legacy will measure up and what we can expect from the new Fed chief, Ben Bernanke. Few central bank governors have the kind of hagiography lavished upon them, especially in their lifetime, that Greenspan has had. But what makes for a great central bank governor in our modern societies, great institutions or great individuals? In economics, we seldom have a clearly defined counterfactual: Would the economy have performed even better or a little differently if someone else had been at the helm? We can’t know, but there is little doubt that those “managing” the economy receive more credit than they deserve, if sometimes less blame. Many forces behind the boom of the 1990’s, including advances in technology, were set in motion before Bill Clinton took office (just as the legacy of President George W. Bush’s deficits will be felt long after he leaves). So Greenspan cannot be given credit for the boom. But, while no central bank governor can ensure economic prosperity, mismanagement can cause enormous harm. Many of America’s post-World War II recessions were caused by the Fed hiking interest rates too fast and too far. There is little doubt that Greenspan had great moments, when one could at least imagine a less deft governor doing the “wrong” thing with disastrous consequences. One such moment was the stock market crash of 1987. Perhaps another occurred in 1998, when the Fed lowered interest rates in the face of what appeared to be an impending global financial crisis. These successes, combined with the 1990’s boom and the seeming durability of price stability, reinforced Greenspan’s exalted status. But they also led many to forget less successful moments. The Fed failed to avert the economic downturn of 1990, and a reading of Greenspan’s testimony to Congress during that period makes clear that the basic nature of the economy’s problems was not well understood. But the real problem for Greenspan’s legacy concerns what happened to the American economy in the last five years, for which he bears heavy responsibility. Greenspan supported the tax cuts of 2001 with the most specious of arguments – that unless something was done about America’s soaring fiscal surpluses, the national debt would be totally paid off within, say, ten to fifteen years. According to Greenspan, immediate action needed to be taken to avert this looming disaster, which would impede the Fed’s ability to conduct monetary policy! It says a great deal about the gullibility of financial markets that they took this argument seriously. More accurately, tax cuts were what Wall Street wanted, and financial professionals were willing to accept any argument that served that purpose. Of course, if, say, by 2008 the disappearing national debt really did appear to pose an imminent danger, Congress would have happily obliged in cutting taxes or increasing expenditures. Greenspan’s irresponsible support of that tax cut was critical to its passage. The fault was not only in the magnitude of the tax cut, but also in its design; by directing the cuts at upper-income Americans, it provided little economic stimulus. But soaring deficits did not return the economy to full employment, so the Fed did what it had to do – cut interest rates. Lower interest rates worked, but not so much because they boosted investment, but because they led households to refinance their mortgages, and fueled a bubble in housing prices. In short, as Greenspan departs, he leaves behind an American economy burdened with high household and government debt and fragile balance sheets – a legacy that is already contributing to global financial instability. It is still not clear what led Greenspan to support the tax cut. Was it a massive economic misjudgment, or was he currying favor with the Bush administration? The most likely explanation is a combination of the two, for he and Bush were pursuing the same “starve the beast” political strategy, which calls for tax cuts to be used to reduce revenues, thereby forcing the public sector to be downsized. The traditional argument for an independent central bank is that politicians can’t be trusted to conduct monetary and macroeconomic policy. Neither, evidently, can central bank governors, at least when they opine in areas outside their immediate responsibility. Greenspan was as enthusiastic for a policy that led to soaring deficits as any politician; but the fig leaf of being “above politics” gave credence to that policy, engendering support from some who otherwise would have questioned its economic wisdom. This, then, is Greenspan’s second legacy: growing doubt about central bank independence. Macroeconomic policy can never be devoid of politics: it involves fundamental trade-offs and affects different groups differently. Unemployment harms workers, while the lower interest rates needed to generate more jobs may lead to higher inflation, which especially harms those with nominal assets whose value is eroded. Such fundamental issues cannot be relegated to technocrats, particularly when those technocrats place the interests of one segment of society above others. Indeed, Greenspan’s political stances were so thinly disguised as professional wisdom that his tenure exposed the dubiousness of the very notion of an independent central bank and a non-partisan central banker. Unfortunately, many countries have committed themselves to precisely this illusion, and it may be a long time before they take heed of Greenspan’s most important lesson. Stressing the new Fed chief’s “professionalism” may only delay the moment when this lesson is learned again. dt-ps Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Columbia University and was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to President Clinton and Chief Economist and Senior Vice President at the World Bank. His most recent book is The Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World’s Most Prosperous Decade.

Subject: Dear Mr. Pelgrift, From: James To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 20:17:47 (EST) Email Address: silverglad@hotmail.com Message: thank you for signing my petition and posting the message on your site. Would you mind removing my last name from your site? If I put it up, it was a mistake on my part. Thank you, James

Subject: Re: Dear Mr. Pelgrift, From: James To: James Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 20:19:05 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: actually, could you remove this message? I have a cold and I'm not thinking straight this evening. Thank you.

Subject: Re: Dear Mr. Pelgrift, From: Bobby To: James Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 00:05:35 (EST) Email Address: robert@pkarchive.org Message: Okay, I erased it.

Subject: Re: Doughnut From: JT To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 14:06:55 (EST) Email Address: jtrainor64@hotmail.com Message: How could any self respecting economist attack a program that adopts clear economic incentives to manage run away costs? And how horribly liberal to throw in that some (exactly how many?) people will die in the process. When there is no cap on demand, you get a program where the incentives of supply take over. The supply team in this equation (MD's), are incented to wear out their wrists writing prescriptions. So the 'Doughnut', a program with the fingerprints of economists, not politicians, all over it. If you have a problem, we'll cover it. If you have a big problem, we'll cover that too. But please, no more over indulgence for every ache, pain, swollen prostate or limp noodle. While Krugman can certainly suggest his own plans in this area, he cannot complain about a program that preaches from the same economic textbooks from which he teaches. JT

Subject: Re: Doughnut From: Mik To: JT Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 17:19:50 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Dude, I hate to break this to you - how about you attack the facts presented in the article. If I fall sick and need medication over the amount put forward ($2,000 odd), let's say I need $3,000 worth of medication - Why am I left high and dry with little to no government assistance? Let's say I got laid off work 1 month ago as the factory I used to work for moved to China. I can't afford the most basic human need - health care. I am sick and I need help. I live in a modern western country, I have been making tax contributions all my life and now I need government asssitance. But it won't be there. Interesting that 'my government' is giving free health care to Iraqis though. If there is a problem with 'over indulgence' then pray do tell - why can Canada offer a much better system? The text books from which Krugman teaches talk very clearly about government's role in the economy.

Subject: Re: Doughnut From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 17:55:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: As usual, you are right. My pain is just not as important as your pain, I suppose. But, you too will experience pain in your time and I am awfully awfully healthy.

Subject: Nooo From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 23:11:39 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Sorry Emma, I don't mean to mislead you. I was giving a hypothetical scenario. I am of perfect health and live in Canada. Oh and am fully employed too. I work in development economics. I advise developing countries' governments on infrastructure. ciao, Mik

Subject: Re: Nooo From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Sat, Nov 12, 2005 at 02:56:11 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thankfully we are both well. I wrote a poorly framed metaphorical support for your incisive statement. You are always incisive. Social insurance is terribly important for all of us, and you expressed that well. You are always a pleasure to read.

Subject: The Deadly Doughnut From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 11:58:33 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2005/11/the_deadly_doug.html November 11, 2005 The Deadly Doughnut - New York Times By Paul Krugman Soon millions of Americans will learn that doughnuts are bad for your health. And if we're lucky, Americans will also learn a bigger lesson: politicians who don't believe in a positive role for government shouldn't be allowed to design new government programs. Before we turn to the larger issue, let's look at how the Medicare drug benefit will work over the course of next year. At first, the benefit will look like a normal insurance plan, with a deductible and co-payments. But if your cumulative drug expenses reach $2,250, a very strange thing will happen: you'll suddenly be on your own. The Medicare benefit won't kick in again unless your costs reach $5,100. This gap in coverage has come to be known as the 'doughnut hole.'... [I]f you are a retiree and spend $2,000 on drugs next year, Medicare will cover 66 percent of your expenses. But if you spend $5,000 - which means that you're much more likely to need help paying those expenses - Medicare will cover only 30 percent of your bills.... How will people respond when their out-of-pocket costs surge? The Health Affairs article argues... that it's likely 'some beneficiaries will cut back even essential medications while in the doughnut hole.' In other words, this doughnut will make some people sick, and for some people it will be deadly. The smart thing to do, for those who could afford it, would be to buy supplemental insurance that would cover the doughnut hole. But guess what: the bill that established the drug benefit specifically prohibits you from buying insurance to cover the gap. That's why many retirees who already have prescription drug insurance are being advised not to sign up for the Medicare benefit. If all of this makes the drug bill sound like a disaster, bear in mind that I've touched on only one of the bill's awful features. There are many others, like the clause that prohibits Medicare from using its clout to negotiate lower drug prices. Why is this bill so bad? The probable answer is that the Republican Congressional leaders who rammed the bill through in 2003 weren't actually trying to protect retired Americans against the risk of high drug expenses. In fact, they're fundamentally hostile to the idea of social insurance, of public programs that reduce private risk. Their purpose was purely political: to be able to say that President Bush had honored his 2000 campaign promise to provide prescription drug coverage by passing a drug bill, any drug bill. Once you recognize that the drug benefit is a purely political exercise that wasn't supposed to serve its ostensible purpose, the absurdities in the program make sense. For example, the bill offers generous coverage to people with low drug costs, who have the least need for help, so lots of people will get small checks in the mail and think they're being treated well.... Can the drug bill be fixed? Yes, but not by current management. It's hard to believe that either the current Congressional leadership or the Mayberry Machiavellis in the White House would do any better on a second pass. We won't have a drug benefit that works until we have politicians who want it to work.

Subject: Blush if You Must, for Art's Sake From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 11:57:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/11/international/europe/11florence.html November 11, 2005 Blush if You Must, for Art's Sake, but Don't Panic By IAN FISHER FLORENCE, Italy - 'This is a very erotic body, don't you think?' Ornella Casazza, the petite and refined director of the Museo degli Argenti here, asked a visitor to the museum's new exhibition. The visitor was relieved that she did not really expect an answer, but her point was plain enough: the body was a nude and luxuriant Venus, painted around 1680, tended at her toilette in the clouds by a fleshy huddle of nymphs and cherubs. It is one work among more than 200 at the museum, in a major exhibit on mythology and erotica, ranging from chastely smooching cupids, to hermaphrodites and Olympian rape scenes, to a four-foot stone penis girded spectacularly with lion's legs. 'Art can never exist without Naked Beauty display'd,' William Blake wrote as part of an etching of the Laocoön - the Greek statue unearthed in Rome that inspired Michelangelo's heroic depiction of the naked body, inspiring in turn the rebirth of the nude in Western art. Now, the naked, and the near-naked, beauty is the subject of several exhibits in Italy that expose what most adults already know well: how what we all have manages to be both profound and sort of dull. For tourists here, the classical nude can seem like wallpaper, one particularly abundant commodity in the full Italian experience, to be chased then checked off somewhere between Chianti and Santa Croce. But Dr. Graziella Magherini, a top psychiatrist in Florence, urges caution all the same. The nude, she warns, can be dangerous to one's mental health. 'The nude, the nude body, masculine and feminine, above all those done by the great artists,' she said, 'is very provocative on the mind of a person.' She is Italy's expert on strong reactions to art: 30 years ago, she began studying what she later called the 'Stendhal syndrome,' named after the French writer who collapsed, as he wrote after a visit to Florence in 1817, from 'a pitch of excitement wherein the celestial sensations of the fine arts meet the passions.' Over 10 years, she studied some 100 cases of visitors to Florence suffering similar breakdowns after their encounters with Italy's art, architecture and history, experiencing panic, euphoria, depression, even hallucinations. These days, her studies have zeroed in on sex, and specifically how Caravaggio's sexually ambiguous young boys have caused similar mental episodes especially in men - more broadly, how the charge of sex in great art can also overwhelm. In a recent paper, she wrote about a young American, called Henry, who suffered from disorientation and dizziness at a Caravaggio exhibit. But it was the sight of a bare knee in a painting of Narcissus that sent him into full psychological terror. In Milan, the brave can test their own reactions at a Caravaggio exhibit that runs through Feb. 6, with 8 works by him and nearly 150 by his followers and imitators. Here in Florence, Dr. Magherini has turned her attention to the most famous nude: Michelangelo's 'David.' She is studying reactions to the 'David,' and has been looking particularly at a recent exhibition in which five modern works were displayed aside the classical beauty of the 'David.' The exhibition provoked 'particularly violent and exaggerated reactions to the contemporary works,' according to Francia Falletti, director of the Galleria della Academia, where the 'David' is displayed. There have been no unusual reactions recorded at the new exhibit on mythology and erotica, though in theory there is time: the show runs through May 15. An Italian newspaper called it a 'porno shop,' a description that Ms. Casazza, the museum director and co-curator of the exhibit, dismissed with a laugh. 'When you look at one of these paintings, do you feel like you are looking at Playboy?' she asked, and again the visitor was relieved when she answered her own question. 'No,' she said. 'They are different from men's magazines. This has a universal character. There is also the ability to represent the human soul.' The exhibit of art from the first century B.C. to the 18th century fills six grand rooms, and while most is tame and tasteful, there are some surprisingly explicit works: semipornographic etchings along with the stone phallus with lion's legs that was a favorite of a Medici cardinal. In all, the exhibit seems a reminder of how much artists used to get away with, when the subject was Greek and Roman myth, most definitely not chaste. One visitor, Maria Grazia Marunti, 74, pronounced it all 'boring and repetitive.' Then again, she is Italian, and Italians are famously less impressed than foreigners by all that surrounds them. 'I find it odd that angelic young children are being displayed more than I thought,' said Ellen Garfield, 20, a junior at Davidson College in North Carolina. 'I don't ever see that in America, the sexually explicit positions.'

Subject: T-Rex of Crocodiles From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 11:55:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/11/international/americas/11croc.html November 11, 2005 Scientists Find the T-Rex of Crocodiles By KENNETH CHANG Scientists have nicknamed it Godzilla, but it really belongs in another movie, one not yet made but possibly titled: 'Jaws Meets Jurassic Park.' The creature, whose discovery is being announced today in the journal Science, is a large sea-dwelling crocodile that lived 135 million years ago, in the middle of the dinosaur era. Unlike most crocodiles today, this one possessed a snout that was short and stout, like that of Tyrannosaurus rex, and its foot-and-a-half-long jaws held 52 large teeth with serrated edges - the type that can tear chunks of flesh out of other large creatures. 'I'm sure it wasn't nice,' said Diego Pol, a researcher at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute at Ohio State University and a member of the research team. 'A top predator role in the food chain.' Perhaps a dozen or more feet long, it was not the largest of all crocodiles, nor was it the only one that swam the seas. But it is notable for being so sharply distinct from most other crocodiles, which generally have long, slender snouts and a mouthful of more than 100 small sharp teeth, useful for catching fish. 'It's like a crocodile with a dinosaur head on it,' said James M. Clark, who is a professor of biology at George Washington University but was not involved in the research. 'This is something really new and unusual. In the realm of fossil marine crocodiles, it's a big deal.' Mark A. Norell, curator of paleontology at the American Museum of Natural History, said this crocodile could have filled an ecological niche similar to that of modern-day killer whales. Dr. Pol said it probably preyed on other marine reptiles like ichthyosaurs, which looked like dolphins, and plesiosaurs, the long-necked, slow-swimming reptiles. Paleontologists have known about crocodiles living in the oceans since the 1800's, when their fossils were found in Europe. Some had even evolved flippers and a fishlike tail. The research, financed by the National Geographic Society, was led by Zulma Gasparini, a paleontologist at the National University of La Plata in Argentina. She uncovered a complete, intact fossil skull of the new species, named Dakosaurus andiniensis, in the Patagonia region in 1996. The Science article culminates nine years of study, including preparing the fossil by removing the surrounding rock. Despite its unusual shape, the 13-inch-long skull had telltale features like the shape of the nostrils, eye sockets and the roof of the mouth that indicated it was a crocodile. A detailed comparison by Dr. Pol with other marine crocodiles of the time indicated that the new species resembled the group with the flippers and fishlike tails. When Dakosaurus lived, the area where the fossil was found was far to the north and far underwater, the bottom of a deep tropical bay connected to the Pacific Ocean.

Subject: Health Care Crisis in the U.S From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 11:52:47 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://krugman.page.nytimes.com/?8hpib November 8, 2005 On 'Pride, Prejudice, Insurance': Health Care Crisis in the U.S By Paul Krugman. Nell Farr, Elk Grove, Calif.: Your fine column contained this line: '. . . Americans too young to receive Medicare and insufficiently destitute to receive Medicaid . . .' This implies that those under 65 receive Medicaid if only they are poor enough. Many people believe this is true. It is not. Only if a person under 65 is on some Federal aid program such as AFDC or a disability program is he/she eligible for Medicaid. Others have an option of a free clinic, if available, or an E.R. for an emergency condition. However, E.R.'s only stabilize a person if further care or diagnostic work is indicated, such as a mammogram or even chemo for cancer, usually such a person is totally out of luck. They die. Your columns are usually 100 percent factually correct, and I was disappointed to see this line that reinforces the mistaken belief of most Americans. Paul Krugman: It's a bit more complicated than that. As I understand it Medicaid covers many children even if the parents aren't on AFDC, and in some cases covers parents too. But you're right that an American can easily be ineligible for Medicaid no matter how desperate his or her financial straits. In fact, that's a big part of the awfulness of how the government is responding to the aftermath of Katrina. But I didn't have space to go into all of that. Remember, 700 words. Michael Pistorio, Des Plaines, Ill.: While I completely agree that it is a travesty for Americans to be devoid of a national health care solution, I question the rationale of comparing the costs of an American system to that of a foreign system. My reasoning lies behind the simple fact that the U.S. has a population considerably larger than the most populated country that you mentioned, and with this said, I would think that the reason other countries have lower costs is due to the smaller number of prospective participants. Please help me understand. Paul Krugman: All of these comparisons are per capita: spending per person. So population is taken into account. Or, if you prefer, add up total spending by Western European countries, which have about the same combined population as the United States; you'll find that they spend only about 60 percent as much on health care, but that everyone is insured, life expectancy is higher, and infant mortality is lower. Philip Lohman, Lakewood, Calif.: You missed making your best argument: the huge difference between levels of overhead in health systems. Somewhere around 30 percent of all expenditures on health care in the U.S. are for administration. This money buys hundreds of millions of pieces of paper and phone calls, plus the salaries of the legions of employees of insurance companies, H.M.O.'s, P.B.M.'s and all the others who are required to make the whole creaky, maddeningly complex mess function. What i t doesn't buy is a single office visit or prescription. Similar administrative costs in other countries are around a third of this. Compared to private insurance, Medicare, perpetually described as a boondoggle by conservatives, is a model of efficiency. I was managememt consultant in healthcare for twenty years. Some days I couldn't bring myself to believe the lunacy of the whole system. Paul Krugman: I agree, but I'm puzzled that you think I missed your point. The column clearly identifies administrative costs as a key problem with the U.S. system. Carol Bouville, Gaithersburg, Md.: Why is the obvious so hard for us Americans to accept? We used to not want any government-sponsored child care either because it was too socialistic. I suspect that has a lot to do with not getting government involved in universal health coverage. After all, our leaders are my age and came of age when anything that mimicked socialism was verboten. I lived in France for 18 years. Yes, it was cumbersome sometimes to get around in the health care system, but at least it was very cheap and available — and good, too. We never had to worry about losing our coverage or about not being able to pay for necessary treatment or meds. I argue that because of that peace of mind, we had a better quality of life than most Americans. Why don't people demand access to health coverage and refuse to vote for anyone who doesn't pledge to make the single-payer system a reality? What do we have to do to make that happen? Neeta Moonka, MD, Demarest, N.J.: Thank you for this column. I am a physician who has been convinced of the need for a single-payer plan in this country since before I went to medical school in 1981. Please know the patchwork of employer based insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, not to mention the uninsured, takes its toll on doctors as well. Bill Hess, Wasilla, Alaska: Your comments on nationalized insurance resonate with me. I am sitting here, feeling a notable amount of pain, thinking it would be good to go see a doctor and ask about it, but I dare not — I can't afford to. Not because I don't have insurance, but largely because I do. I am 55 years old and when I first got my insurance over a decade ago, it was a good deal. In the time since, my insurers have continually forced me to pay more for less, to drop my dental care altogether, to increase my deductible while still cutting back on my medical benefits. Yet the rate I pay has more than doubled to over $600 a month — that's just for me. Fortunately, my wife and grown children receive care under the U.S. Indian Health Service. I have a prostate problem for which I take three medications, all of which I must purchase myself along with any other medications I might find myself needing at any time. Last spring, my urologist ordered up a cat scan to double check a few things, which turned out okay. Two weeks later, I was struck by some intense abdominal pain. The physician who saw me felt it necessary to order up still another cat scan, which revealed nothing that wasn't on the original, but did add several thousand to the medical bills I was already facing, bills denied by my insurance company. So I have been trying to pay off this big debt and now I dare not go see a doctor again, as long as I am able to function and move around. I simply cannot afford to. An older brother recently had part of his colon removed due to cancer and another brother suffers a variety of often severe colon ailments. My father has had part of his colon removed as well. This puts me in the group of at-risk people who are advised to get a colonoscopy, but I checked into it and, even with my insurance, I would be facing a few more thousand in additional medical debt that would be uncovered by my insurance. I know what happens when my insurance company receives one of my medical bills — they do not say, 'Let's see what we can do to help this guy and keep him healthy for as long as we can.' They say, 'Let's see if we can deny all of this, or as much as possible, and lets keep raising his rate dramatically every few months so that, hopefully, by the time he really needs care and we would have to put out some bucks we will already have forced him to drop our coverage.' They may not actually vocalize it in those terms, but I sincerely believe both scenarios to be an accurate reflection of their policy. Mark Sengel , Banglamung, Thailand: Thanks for your focus on health care. I am 50 and teach in Thailand. The hospitals here are excellent and tens if not hundreds of thousands of foreigners are coming here from all over the world to have root canals, colonoscopies, and back surgery. Meanwhile, everyone I know in America feels their choices are limited. They choose to stay in jobs they don't like, they don't start businesses, and they live in places they don't really want to in order to get health care. Most have no idea how they are going to retire, estimating they need hundreds of thousand dollars just for health care if they are going to retire in their early 60's. And these are people that are way ahead of the average American. What is the endgame? Lynne Koester, Yuba City, Calif.: Would it be feasible to convert Medicare into a national health insurance system? I realize that its present per-patient cost is high because of the age of those who qualify for Medicare, but if the pool were enlarged by including most all Americans, wouldn't the per-patient cost decrease? By eliminating the profits built into private health insurance companies, we could save even more money. Plus, when ill, many uninsured people presently use a hospital emergency room because they do not have medical insurance, but if they were covered by a national health insurance, they could be treated in a doctor's office, which is less costly than a hospital. Paul Krugman: Yes, indeed. One way to implement national health care would simply be to expand Medicare to everyone. Of course, doing that would require additional funds, probably in the form of an increase in the payroll tax. And that would elicit howls from the right. But the apparent rise in tax rates would be an illusion: it would simply substitute an explicit tax for the implicit tax that companies and workers pay in the form of insurance premiums. Given international experience, I have no doubt that overall spending on health care would actually fall, and that job creation would actually rise, after the supposed tax increase. It's a simple solution, building on a program that we already know works. It would make the vast majority of Americans better off. And it's considered a complete non-starter politically. Now why is that?

Subject: Investing From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 07:16:47 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Notice that as the economy continues to grow reasonably, so the stock market is slowly making gains. I find this promising for all the reightful worries we have and for a period when the Federal Reserve is in the midst of a tightening cycle. I point this out because no matter our worries we must save and invest for our futures. What should give us confidence is that we can soundly invest in a period of considerable uncertainty and still find the security we need. I am quite pleased, and confident in our economic growth and stability of our financial system.

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 07:00:04 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 11/10/05 Australia 10.7 Canada 18.3 Denmark 15.4 France 4.1 Germany 2.3 Hong Kong 5.3 Japan 13.0 Netherlands 5.8 Norway 21.6 Sweden 1.7 Switzerland 12.6 UK 5.0

Subject: Index Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 06:56:54 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 11/10/05 Australia 18.7 Canada 17.3 Denmark 33.9 France 20.4 Germany 18.3 Hong Kong 5.0 Japan 30.1 Netherlands 22.4 Norway 32.3 Sweden 25.4 Switzerland 29.6 UK 15.4

Subject: France Faces a Colonial Legacy From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 05:59:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/11/international/europe/11france.html?ex=1289365200&en=6a03baf981ac54ed&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 11, 2005 France Faces a Colonial Legacy: What Makes Someone French? By CRAIG S. SMITH PARIS - Semou Diouf, holding a pipe in one hand and a cigarette in the other, stood amid the noisy games of checkers and cards in the dingy ground-floor common room of a crowded tenement building and pondered the question of why he feels French. 'I was born in Senegal when it was part of France,' he said before putting the pipe in his mouth. 'I speak French, my wife is French and I was educated in France.' The problem, he added after pulling the pipe out of his mouth again, 'is the French don't think I'm French.' That, in a nutshell, is what lies at the heart of the unrest that has swept France in the past two weeks: millions of French citizens, whether immigrants or the offspring of immigrants, feel rejected by traditional French society, which has resisted adjusting a vision of itself forged in fires of the French Revolution. The concept of French identity remains rooted deep in the country's centuries-old culture, and a significant portion of the population has yet to accept the increasingly multiethnic makeup of the nation. Put simply, being French, for many people, remains a baguette-and-beret affair. Though many countries aspire to ensure equality among their citizens and fall short, the case is complicated in France by a secular ideal that refuses to recognize ethnic and religious differences in the public domain. All citizens are French, end of story, the government insists, a lofty position that, nonetheless, has allowed discrimination to thrive. France's Constitution guarantees equality to all, but that has long been interpreted to mean that ethnic or religious differences are not the purview of the state. The result is that no one looks at such differences to track growing inequalities and so discrimination is easy to hide. 'People have it in their head that surveying by race or religion is bad, it's dirty, it's something reserved for Americans and that we shouldn't do it here,' said Yazid Sabeg, the only prominent Frenchman of Arab descent at the head of a publicly listed French company. 'But without statistics to look at, how can we measure the problem?' Mr. Sabeg was born in Algeria when it was French territory and moved to France with his family as an infant. His father worked as a laborer and later a mechanic to put him through a Jesuit boarding school, and he went on to earn a Ph.D. at the Sorbonne. He scoffs at the notion of a French identity based on what he believes is a fiction of equal rights and France's reluctance to engage in debate about the gap between ideals and reality. 'France doesn't know how to manage diversity,' he said. 'It doesn't want to accept the consequences of a multiethnic society.' Like most French schoolchildren, he was taught that his ancestors were Gauls and that 'in 732, Charles Martel, the Mayor of the Palace, repelled the Arabs in Poitiers.' French leaders admit failings but insist they are working to bring equality to all citizens and have embarked on an oblique public debate about what it means to be French. But that debate is still bounded by fidelity to ideals of the French Republic. President Jacques Chirac told reporters at Élysée Palace on Thursday that the government 'hasn't been fast enough' in addressing the problems of discrimination. 'No matter what our origins, we are all children of the Republic,' he said. Further to the political right, the debate has taken on another cast: the far-right National Front party released a computer-generated video on its Web site this week that showed Paris in flames. 'Immigration, explosion in the suburbs ... Le Pen foretold it,' the banner over the video reads, referring to the party's patriarch, Jean-Marie Le Pen. The idea behind France's republican ideal was that by officially ignoring ethnic differences in favor of a transcendent French identity, the country would avoid the stratification of society that existed before the French Revolution or the fragmentation that it now sees in multicultural models like the United States. But the French model, never updated, has failed, critics say. 'France always talks about avoiding ghettoization, but it has already happened,' Mr. Sabeg said, adding that people are separated in the housing projects, in their schools and in their heads. The country's colonial legacy has only deepened that alienation. Rachid Arhab, one of the only well-known minority broadcast journalists in France, says that he lives with the resentments touched off by the bloody war of independence that Algeria won against France in 1962. 'Unconsciously, for many French, I'm a reminder of the war,' he said, adding, 'now they see images of second-generation Algerian children in the streets burning cars and buildings, and that brings out the resentment even more.' Mr. Arhab himself is a study in the country's ambivalence toward what it means to be French. He was born in Algeria when the country was French territory and so was born French. He moved to France as an infant, but lost his French citizenship when he was 8 in the wake of the Algerian war - like many French-Arabs from Algeria, his parents didn't understand that they had to apply to retain their citizenship in France. Mr. Arhab didn't become a French citizen again until 1992. Yet he said, 'I feel profoundly French.' But even the language of identity has its barbs. Mr. Arhab said that when he hears people refer to him as French 'of Algerian origin,' it carries with it the subtext that he is not really French. He said earlier generations like himself have had it easier than the frustrated youths in the housing projects today, because his generation had closer ties to their homelands. 'When someone says to me, 'you're not French,' I can take refuge in my origins,' he said, 'but the young can't do that.' Most second-generation Muslim immigrants are generally no more observant than young French Catholics. But the legacy of discrimination creates the conditions for young people who feel neither French nor North African to seek an identity in Islam - often anti-Western, political Islam. 'I've known discrimination all of my life,' Mr. Sabeg said, adding that the prejudices only grew stronger the more prominent he became. In 1991, he led a group of investors in taking over CS Communication and Systémes, a publicly listed company that he now runs. When he applied to the government to become a defense contractor, a ministry official told him, 'You're called Sabeg, that's a problem for us,' meaning that he was of Algerian descent. Rumors soon began circulating that he was an Algerian spy. It took him three years to win his first contract from the Defense Ministry. He never found out who was behind the rumors. 'It's like a snake, you see the tail as it disappears, but never the head,' Mr. Sabeg said, adding that the rumors continue. So far, the government's efforts to reach out to minority ethnic youth have been half-hearted, constrained by the republican ideals that have turned affirmative action into a taboo. But private efforts are beginning, skirting the rules. Karim Zeribi, a former soccer player and political adviser, said a study he carried out earlier this year found that résumés sent out with traditionally French names got responses 50 times higher than those with North African or African names. In the wake of the study, Mr. Zeribi established an agency in April called Act for Citizenship, which canvasses minority neighborhoods for qualified job candidates and markets them to corporations. 'We want to create a network for these people where there is none,' Mr. Zeribi said. Still, he said, his young candidates are regularly asked if they are practicing Muslims when they are interviewed for jobs.

Subject: Re: France Faces a Colonial Legacy From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 12:41:13 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Interesting that comparisons or differences are drawn to the USA's immigrant issues. They should rather look at Canada's model. Truly amazing. I am spellbound by what Canada has done to integrate cultures from all parts of the world. Canada is by no means perfect, but what they have pulled off, is simply amazing. In fact France should look to Quebec to see their integration policies. After all Quebec is French speaking. Integration requires an active role from EVERYONE. The Canadian government spends tremendous time and money understanding the unique differences between the different cultural groups and implements programs to address specific problems. Isn't that amazing? When the government shows they care, they quickly get a ‘buy-in’ by the groups and everyone is quickly working together. Does the USA or France have a program specially geared to help one particular ethnic group cope with the changes from peri-urban to urban environment? Canada has - for Jamaicans who have never lived in an urban environment. Why do Jamaicans get this special treatment? Because they were identified as the group struggling the most with the change. Does the USA of France put money aside to help one particular group improve its tertiary education level and ensure it doesn't fall behind? Canada has - for Portuguese immigrants who have been here for many generations but are falling behind other more newly arrived immigrant groups. There are special scholarship programs for children of Portuguese background to go to University and College. I cannot imagine even London or Paris or New York having more cultural diversity than Toronto. Walk the streets of Toronto and tell me there is a visible majority. Everyone, but everyone on the streets are a visible minority including people of European decent. Yet Toronto has the lowest crime rate for a city of this size. We have NEVER had racial flares. This goes so much deeper. When a crime is reported, the TV companies are responsible enough NOT to report the racial, cultural or any other form of discriminatory background of the criminal. All we tend to know is the age and gender. By simply not reporting the racial or cultural background, people don't start jumping to any racist conclusions. Now how is that for impressive? But now for the most impressive part.... walk the streets of Toronto (a city with over 2 million inhabitants) walk up to any house and open the door. You have an 80% chance that the door will be unlocked. Yes it is true - Canadians leave their front doors unlocked.... Unbelievable. Why is it that Canada can get it right and France cannot? because Canadians, by nature, care and they inspire others to care too. I'm not a Canadian - but this is truly mind blowing.

Subject: Re: France Faces a Colonial Legacy From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 17:56:33 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Excellent, excellent.

Subject: Inside French Housing Project From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 05:55:27 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/international/europe/09projects.html?ex=1289192400&en=7847f6426bccd3c4&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 9, 2005 Inside French Housing Project, Feelings of Being the Outsiders By CRAIG S. SMITH ÉVRY, France - Amin Kouidri, 20, has been hunting for a job for more than two years now and spends his days drifting around a government housing project here under the watchful gaze of France's national police. He and his neighbors in one of France's now-notorious housing projects say that they feel cut off from French society, a result of a process of segregation lasting for decades, and that alienation and pressure from the police have now exploded in rage across the country. 'There's nothing to do, and frustrations have added up until in the end it has become like a bomb that they carry inside,' said Azzouz Camen, 44, at a small snack bar he owns between the neighborhood's apartment blocks and a gleaming new mosque. For these men, the violence that has swept the country is easy to understand, even, they say, long overdue, not only because of the unemployment but because of the increasing confrontation with the police. On Tuesday, after two weeks of violence, the government declared a state of emergency, imposing curfews on numerous trouble spots. [Page A12.] Mr. Kouidri, his short hair swept forward with gel, was born here to North African immigrants and educated in French schools. He trained as a pastry chef and has been seeking work steadily to no avail. 'If you don't have a job, you get into drugs, you get into trouble,' he said, nursing a cup of tea in the chilly air outside Mr. Camen's snack bar in this southern Paris suburb. Others turn to religion, a trend that has worried many officials even as it reassures an older generation of immigrants who have seen their children stray. 'People need to hang on to something,' Mr. Camen said. At prayer time, a steady stream of men pass his snack bar on the way to the mosque. But the focus on religion has added to the tension. Fears of Islamic extremism and the terrorism it sometimes breeds have increased the mistrust between traditional French society and the immigrant neighborhoods, particularly after a spate of bombings in the 1990's and the terrorist violence of the past few years. People in the projects say this has increased the pressure from the police. 'If you practice your religion, you're dangerous, if you don't drink alcohol, you're dangerous,' said a man at the snack bar who would only give his name as Mohammed. The police circle the apartment blocks in their cars or sit at the two roads that lead in and out of the sprawling neighborhood, periodically stopping and searching - and angering - the men they see. Worse, said Mohammed and others, is when the police appear in riot gear. 'At dusk, they put on their helmets and as soon as they do that the kids say, great, there's going to be a party tonight,' Mohammed said. He said an often destructive game of cat-and-mouse has ensued. In other projects, the story is the same. 'They come to provoke us,' said a 22-year-old man named Sofiane in the Franc-Moisin projects north of Paris, claiming that the police plant drugs on young men suspected of being dealers. 'They arrest us for nothing.' His brother, Nassin, was quick to admit that violence is often the response. He claimed that he set off a small bomb outside the prefecture's police station after his brother was arrested a few months ago. 'It's not unemployment, it's the police,' he said. The projects were built in the 1960's as part of a postwar urban planning dream: modern blocks of tidy apartments surrounding lawns and playgrounds, social centers and stores. They drew people from cramped, old houses in the provinces and cramped, old tenements in the city. When immigrants began arriving in the 1960's, they moved into the subsidized housing, too. Residents describe the early days as full of optimism and hope. 'Everyone had work and lived with the expectation that their children would have better jobs than their parents,' said Harlem Désir, a son of an immigrant from Martinique who grew up in a housing project in Bagneux, north of Paris. Working-class French and working-class immigrants lived side by side in the buildings. Education was free and all of the children were taught the catechism of France's republican ideal: that under the French state, they enjoyed liberty, fraternity and equality. The reality of discrimination was something they learned on their own. 'You're French on your identity card, French to pay taxes and to go into the army, but for the rest, you're an Arab,' said Hassan Marouni, 38, who came to France from his native Morocco with his parents 30 years ago. He said he had only been able to find temporary factory jobs and is currently unemployed. Most of the native French moved out of the projects in a 1980's government-sponsored home-buying program. Few immigrant families could afford to participate and most were left behind. As the first wave of French-born children of immigrants came of age, they realized that the opportunities afforded them fell far short of those enjoyed by their native French friends. Delinquency flourished in the now predominantly immigrant neighborhoods, and the police cracked down. That led to a summer of rioting in 1983 similar to the current unrest, but on a smaller scale. Mr. Désir emerged as a leader from that unrest and helped organize a march for equal rights that started in the immigrant neighborhoods outside Lyon and ended in Paris. The press dubbed it the March of the Beurs, using the immigrants' slang word for Arab, and France's left-leaning intelligentsia embraced the cause, seeing in it an echo of the United States' civil rights movement. President François Mitterrand received some of the marchers at Élysée Palace and euphoria swept through the country's children of immigrants. They had stood up and been heard. But little happened after that. Mr. Désir and others said the housing projects were repainted, elevators fixed and social workers assigned to help guide the young. The government helped Mr. Désir establish a discrimination watchdog organization and he later went on to his current job as a Socialist member of the European Parliament. Few others reaped such bright futures. Even today, France, with the largest non-European immigrant population in Europe, has only a handful of minorities in senior government, news media or corporate positions, a sharp contrast with some European countries with smaller minority populations. As disappointment settled over the projects and discrimination outside them grew, young French of West African and North African origin withdrew into their neighborhoods' increasingly closed world. 'The violence is an expression of anger but also a cry for help,' Mr. Désir said. 'The state must be there to guarantee that people will be protected from discrimination, treated correctly by the police, helped to get out of the projects.' Otherwise, he warned, the door is open for other ideologies, like fundamentalist Islam. Mr. Désir, who is a Roman Catholic, said the number of French-born youths who have been recruited to violent radical groups was small so far, 'but it has sounded an alarm.' An economic downturn hit the immigrant neighborhoods harder than the rest of the country, and many of the jobs never came back. A series of deadly bombings in France by terrorists tied to a war in Algeria further soured the national mood toward the growing immigrant population. As things grew steadily worse, crime in and from the projects grew. An effort by the last Socialist administration helped improve things a bit by putting police officers on the beat in the neighborhoods and providing money to create jobs for young residents. But both programs ended after Jacques Chirac became president. His tough interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, replaced the police on the beat with officers from an anti-crime brigade who cover several towns at a time. Their aggressive tactics have won almost universal scorn in the projects and created an air of hostility that has precipitated the current violence. 'They're cowboys, they're Rambos,' Mr. Marouni complained. He said the situation had deteriorated rapidly since the anti-crime brigade arrived. Many young people now spend the majority of their time in the small world of their projects, threatened by the police if they venture too far. 'When you're in your project, you're safe, but if you go out it's more dangerous,' said a tall, young man who gave his name as Kunta Kinte, smoking a marijuana cigarette near the Temple Woods projects in Clichy-sous-Bois north of the city. The balconies of the apartment blocks of Évry's housing projects are crowded with drying laundry, bicycles and flower boxes. Teenagers and mothers with strollers crisscross the leafy, parklike grounds. 'The apartments are nice,' said Mr. Marouni, who now lives with his wife and three children in a three-bedroom apartment in one of the buildings. 'It's not a problem of poverty,' said Alain Touraine, an expert on integration in France, adding that the underlying problems are deeper. 'What we are living through is a general process of rapid reverse integration that is the result of failures on both sides.' He believes that the only way to solve the problem is to create public debate so people can address each other rather than the caricatures they see. People in the neighborhoods say they have a simpler solution - pull back the police and help idle young people find jobs.

Subject: Paul Krugman: The Deadly Doughnut From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 05:54:40 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ November 11, 2005 Paul Krugman: The Deadly Doughnut By Mark Thoma Paul Krugman looks at Medicare's new prescription drug benefit and asks whose interests are served by the legislation that created it: The Deadly Doughnut, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Registration for Medicare's new prescription drug benefit starts next week. Soon millions of Americans will learn that doughnuts are bad for your health. ... [L]et's look at how the Medicare drug benefit will work... At first, the benefit will look like a normal insurance plan, with a deductible and co-payments. But if your cumulative drug expenses reach $2,250, ... you'll suddenly be on your own. The Medicare benefit won't kick in again unless your costs reach $5,100. This gap in coverage ...[is] the 'doughnut hole.' (Did you think I was talking about Krispy Kremes?) ... [T]his will place many retirees on a financial 'roller coaster.' People with high drug costs will have relatively low out-of-pocket expenses for part of the year... Then, suddenly, they'll enter the doughnut hole, and their personal expenses will soar. ... How will people respond when their out-of-pocket costs surge? ...[B]ased on experience from H.M.O. plans with caps on drug benefits, ... it's likely 'some beneficiaries will cut back even essential medications while in the doughnut hole.' ... [T]his doughnut will make some people sick, and for some people it will be deadly. The smart thing to do... would be to buy supplemental insurance that would cover the doughnut hole. But guess what: the bill ... specifically prohibits ... buying insurance to cover the gap... [B]ear in mind that I've touched on only one of the bill's awful features. There are many others... Why is this bill so bad? The probable answer is that the Republican Congressional leaders who rammed the bill through ... weren't actually trying to protect retired Americans... In fact, they're fundamentally hostile to the idea of social insurance... Their purpose was purely political: to be able to say that President Bush had honored his 2000 campaign promise to provide prescription drug coverage... Once you recognize that the drug benefit is a purely political exercise..., the absurdities ... make sense. For example, the bill offers generous coverage to people with low drug costs, who have the least need for help, so lots of people will get small checks in the mail and think they're being treated well. Meanwhile, the people who are actually likely to need a lot of help ... were deliberately offered a very poor benefit. According to a report issued along with the final version of the bill, people are prohibited from buying supplemental insurance to cover the doughnut hole to keep beneficiaries from becoming 'insensitive to costs' ... A more likely motive is that Congressional leaders didn't want a drug bill that really worked for middle-class retirees. Can the drug bill be fixed? Yes, but not by current management. ... We won't have a drug benefit that works until we have politicians who want it to work.

Subject: Stocks and Bonds From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 18:52:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Slowly the American stock market is gaining, and we may well mark another fine year even with the Federal Reserve cycle continuing. All major sectors are positive, with middle cap stocks nearing 10%, small caps a bit less and large caps about 3%. Value is ahead of growth by a bit, and energy, utilities, precious metals, health care and REITs all strong. International stocks are especially strong in domestic currencies, and holding against the strong dollar. International value is again leading growth. Bonds have weakened.

Subject: Re: Stocks and Bonds From: Terri To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 20:35:21 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Notice that the Vanguard REIT index is up 8.8% this year. I still argue that this fund is a fine reflection of the strength of the housing market. Yes, I know this is commercial real estate, but I have found the reflection accurate for almost a decade. Housing is slowing, but gently I think and that is what the strength of the REIT index tells me.

Subject: Vanguard Fund Returns From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 14:55:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship5.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByName Vanguard Fund Returns 12/31/04 to 11/9/05 S&P Index is 2.2 Large Cap Growth Index is 2.6 Large Cap Value Index is 3.9 Mid Cap Index is 8.6 Small Cap Index is 4.4 Small Cap Value Index is 3.8 Europe Index is 4.1 Pacific Index is 12.2 Energy is 37.7 Health Care is 10.8 Precious Metals 28.3 REIT Index is 6.5 High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is 1.1 Long Term Corporate Bond Fund is 1.5

Subject: Sector Stock Indexes From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 14:55:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsVIPERByName Sector Stock Indexes 12/31/04 - 11/9/05 Energy 34.6 Financials 2.9 Health Care 4.7 Info Tech 1.3 Materials -4.6 REITs 6.6 Telecoms 0.4 Utilities 12.7

Subject: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 14:24:46 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There was a time (20 years or more ago) when a sinking dollar had a balance between good and bad effects. On the one hand, a sinking dollar had a shrinking effect on paychecks but (with some lag) eventually improved the position of US manufacturers by increasing sales of US goods overseas which would eventually lead to higher US employment and help to balance trade. All of that has changed dramatically during the last quarter century or so. US manufacturing has diminished considerably and now represents only a little over 10% of the US economy. So a sinking dollar helps a much smaller portion of our economy than it once did. When you look at our economy today, a very large part of the US economy is foundationed on the housing market. The economist, in a recent article (posted on this board), stated that, since 2000, 40% of new jobs created in the US were directly attributed to the housing market. The San Diego Tribune sited labor statistics which attributed 50% of new jobs created in the two years since 2003 in California (where housing has soared) were directly related the housing market. These jobs where the construction, real estate, mortgage and escrow jobs related to housing. We can be sure that there are many indirect jobs at furniture, home electronics, and hardware retailers, etc which are also indirectly related to the housing market. The point here is, while shrinking paychecks due to a shrinking dollar has a negative effect on consumption in general, higher interest rates due to a shrinking dollar have a negative effect on our economy's main engine - housing! So a shrinking dollar is a greater threat to the economy than it may have been in the past. It's not as usefull to look at the dollar's rise or fall against other currencies as it once was. In fact, most major currencies around the globe have been shrinking in buying power. This is the main reason why precious metals have been rising now for nearly four years. This is why I'm more concerned with the buying power of the US dollar when it comes to the necessities of life (like energy and food). This is why interest rates will go steadily higher no matter what the Fed does as long as we have high fiscal deficits and high yearly current account deficits. Higher interest rates and tighter lending will crush a very overvalued housing market and consumption in the process.

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 15:15:10 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Barry Ritholtz, an excellent analyst, agrees with you while I am not yet willing to. However, even if you both are correct and wages are increasing meaningfully more slowly than prices I would argue the effects will be a long while before they make a difference in economic growth. If we are losing ground to inflation, we have means from use of assets to debt to maintain consumption and will do so. Also, there is no reason to believe long term interest rates will rise much from here as long as there is support for our bonds internationally and I expect such support will continue.

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Terri To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 15:20:45 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: From an international perspecitve dollar assets are a fine investment, and I agree. There is simply no other currency to challenge the dollar right now. The Euro will have another run, but not for a while since Europe lacks stability and ready investment opportunity.

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 16:45:18 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Terri. If we can keep on with all this borrowing to close the yearly fiscal and current account deficits year-in-year-out without any serious ill effects, then my parents were wrong about 'money not growing on trees' and 'there's no free lunch'!!!

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 17:55:14 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The danger is not borrowing repeatedly, it is borrowing at a faster rate than the economy can grow. If debt grows only as fast as the economy grows, then debt service can be maintained indefinitely. Remember that we had a balanced budget only 5 years ago, and it will take a while before debt builds and there may be a detectable problem. You are right to worry, but not quite yet to detect an effect. But, several fine analysts have been too abrupt as well.

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 08:50:02 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'The danger is not borrowing repeatedly, it is borrowing at a faster rate than the economy can grow.' When you are borrowing to close the gap on deficits you are borrowing at a faster rate than the economy is growing (as measured by GDP) by definition. Do a search in google on 'debt as a ratio to GDP' and take a look at the history of this important ratio.

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Poyetas To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 10:05:25 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: You are absolutely right Pete, Deficits mean that the economy is not growing at a fast enough rate to cover expenses. The major problem in predicting what will happen to the dollar is a lack of clarity as to what the transmission mechanism for interest rates actually is. Is it determined by foreign investors as they load up on T-Bills or does the Fed have the independance to set the rate as they see fit? Will foreign central banks keep on purchasing TBills regardless of the price? What confuses me is the relationship that you made earlier that: 'a sinking dollar had a shrinking effect on paycheck'. How is that possible? If your expenses and revenues are in the same currency, a currency movement should not have any impact. America's liabilities are in dollars so for a country with so little manufacturing, currency value should not be such a concern.

Subject: Re: Why dollar shrinkage is a problem From: Pete Weis To: Poyetas Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 14:06:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'What confuses me is the relationship that you made earlier that: 'a sinking dollar had a shrinking effect on paycheck'. How is that possible? If your expenses and revenues are in the same currency, a currency movement should not have any impact. America's liabilities are in dollars so for a country with so little manufacturing, currency value should not be such a concern.' Many expenses are set by global demand and the rising cost of energy and materials needed to make products whether they are manufactured here or overseas. Hence the cost of producing, packaging and transporting food, for instance, has been rising at a considerably higher rate than 'core inflation'. These costs must be passed on to US consumers or profits will suffer. Part of the runup in fuel and material costs has been due to a shrinking dollar as well as higher worldwide demand. South Africans haven't seen nearly the shrinkage in the buying power of their paychecks since the rand has gained against the dollar. True, we get a break since the US dollar is the world's reserve currency and things could be much worse. Nevertheless, the dollar has been steadily losing ground. A shrinking dollar will also mean higher interest rates in our future and the millions of Americans who are on some sought of variable rate will be shelling out an ever larger percentage of their paychecks to cover what they have already borrowed.

Subject: The Dollar From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 11:17:05 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The absence of competitive international financial markets in Europe has long been a mystery to me, though why be more competitive than necessary when there are such manipulative profits as European financial companies can generate? This is a prime reason why I do not worry about the dollar, no matter the swings as yet.

Subject: Markets From: Terri To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 11:30:53 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Remember, Japan finally seems to be recovering from what strikes me as the most profound financial crash of the century, finally finally. The Nikkei index was 39,000 in 1989 and is 14,000 this day, and almost no dividends to compensate. The Yen is a little more valuable than in 1989. Care to have held Japanese stocks as a store of value :) Europe is better, but look at how European investment houses treat investors and wonder.

Subject: Investing From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 11:05:00 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Every international family I know has assets in America, as would I whether I lived in Asia or Europe. Similarly we should be looking to international assets, but there is not quite a symmetry possible. Capital markets in America are easier to negotiate and more investor friendly, for all my complaints, than international capital markets are. Even when the Euro was strongest, and it will be strong again in time, I thought the idea of the dollar lastingly losing favor was foolish. When Vanguard Europe begins to look neraly like Vanguard America or when there even is a Vanguard Japan, I will begin to think of international capital markets as competitive.

Subject: Shopping From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 08:41:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: In Greenspan's Math, Inflation Is Always Zero: Caroline Baum Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- If only consumers could see things Alan Greenspan's way. The Federal Reserve chairman was on Capitol Hill last week to testify to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in what will probably be his last appearance there before he steps down on Jan. 31. The testimony was uneventful -- so uneventful, in fact, it's hard to remember what he said. The Q&A that followed, however, featured some topics near and dear to the chairman's heart and legacy. Take the following exchange between Greenspan and Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, the one self-described libertarian in Congress and someone not known for giving the chairman a free pass. Greenspan said that ``the inflation rate, properly measured, at this particular stage has been very close to zero for a very long period of time.'' Without missing a beat, Paul came back with the observation that the dollar is worth 55 cents today compared with 1987. ``So I don't see how you can say there's no inflation,'' Paul said. Here's Greenspan again: ``Well, you and I have discussed this issue at length many times over the years. And I agree with you in part and I disagree with you in the other part.'' The gentleman's time had expired. There was no resolution of the parts. Consumer Angst Greenspan may believe inflation, properly measured, is close to zero, but consumers clearly don't. Expectations for inflation one year out hit a 15-year high of 4.6 percent in October, according to the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers. Over the 5- to 10-year time horizon, the median inflation expectation rose to a 10-year high of 3.2 percent, according to Michigan survey director Richard Curtin. ``Consumers are feeling more defenseless against inflation because they can't raise their wages,'' Curtin said in an interview. ``The cumulative strain of higher prices'' on household finances pushed the consumer-sentiment index to a 13-year low last month, following the second-largest three-month dive (22.3 points) on record, according to the report. Asked to explain their newly depressed state, ``more consumers cited higher prices than any time since 1982, and just as importantly, the fewest consumers cited income gains in more than a decade,'' according to the report. Zero inflation does not figure among their key concerns. Different Measures So why the disconnect between the zero inflation and well- contained inflation expectations that Greenspan sees and the higher prices and rising expectations giving consumers angst? Quite simply, the Fed prefers a ``core'' measure of inflation, with food and energy excluded. The core CPI rose 2 percent in the year ended September, down from a 2.4 percent annual increase in February. Add food and energy back into the index, and the result is a 4.7 percent year-over-year gain in the CPI, the biggest increase in 14 years. Energy prices, up 35 percent in the last 12 months, are a very visible part of the family budget. Enough said. Consider this inconsistency: Fed policy makers say inflation is close to zero and long-term inflation expectations are well contained, yet they're talking and acting as if they side with consumers, whose long-term inflation expectations are at a 10-year high. Investor Confidence ``Investors don't have the same anxiety about inflation as consumers,'' said Jim Glassman, senior U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``If they did, a 4.6 percent 10-year note wouldn't be that attractive.'' Besides, ``if inflation is zero and the funds rate is at 4 percent, how can policy be accommodative?'' he asked. Good question. And not one we're apt to get an answer to anytime soon. Even if Greenspan is relying on the conclusions of Fed board economists David Lebow and Jeremy Rudd that the overstatement in the CPI is 0.6 percentage point annually (``Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand,'' Dec. 7, 2001), there's no way inflation is zero right now. Like many economists, Lebow and Rudd contend that the major source of overstatement in the ``cost of living'' is inadequate accounting for changes in the quality of goods and services. Many economists agree that quality improvements -- in medical- care procedures, for example -- overwhelm service degradation (little face time with doctors, mountains of paperwork for health-care reimbursement) over time. Basket Weaving But it's just as easy, although not as popular, to argue that inflation is being understated. ``We don't even know what price is anymore,'' said Joe Carson, director of economic research at Alliance Bernstein. ``Does the change in price represent value added in the service or quality improvement in the good, or a price change?'' A price measure is ``supposed to take the price changes of a fixed basket of goods,'' he said. ``That's inflation.'' What we measure instead is cost of living and call it inflation. ``There's so much innovation, you can't buy the old product anymore,'' Carson said. ``If we were to add up all the double- digit declines in computer prices over the years, they should be giving them away free.'' No critical discussion of the CPI is complete without reference to housing. The largest single CPI component, owner's equivalent rent, rose 2.3 percent in the past year in the face of a booming housing market. While the imputed rental value of a home isn't the same as the price of the asset, it should bear some relationship to the underlying value. Greenspan Commission The median price of an existing home rose 13.4 percent in September from a year earlier, the seventh consecutive month in which gains exceeded 10 percent. Greenspan won't lack for job offers when he leaves the Fed; he'll be a hot ticket for any corporate board. As someone who has devoted a good deal of his life to public service, he would be a good candidate to head the Greenspan Commission, charged with studying and eliminating the measurement bias in the CPI. The only condition: He has to spell out his formula for converting the highest inflation rate in 14 years to zero.

Subject: Re: Shopping From: Emma To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 18:07:10 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Remember that Whole Foods '365' brand is quite inexpensive but better in quality that regular store brands at any price. Just look to the organic breads and compare the label with any processed bread. There are times when cost should not matter much in any event, and food should be of fine quality. I am not about to eat at McDonalds, no matter the price.

Subject: Substitution From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 08:59:57 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The Bureau of Labor Statistics takes the opposite view. In calculating inflation they utilize substitution which essentially states that when Whole Foods prices rise, consumers can simply substitute cheaper McDonalds type food - hence no inflation. Go to the BLS site and take a look at the method used to calculate inflation - specifically the part regarding substitution. This was a change instituted in 1999.

Subject: Re: Substitution From: Emma To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 11:12:18 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Whole Foods prices range from inexpensive to expensive, but even with expensive fine food items the stores are changing the way in which many people shop. Whole Foods supermarkets, in my experience, are packed with shoppers and other chains are begin forced to consider competing directly with Whole Foods. But, if a person wishes to eat at McDonalds fine. I find fine foods plentiful and inexpensive, and shop happily where I please. Were Whole Foods to seem extravagant, I could always switch but never dream of going to McDonalds. There is after all Trader Joe's.... I just do not find a problem.

Subject: Re: Substitution From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 11, 2005 at 19:48:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Somehow I get the feeling we are a couple vessels passing in the night on a sea of confusion.

Subject: The “Stolper(n)-Samuelson Theorem” From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 07:58:43 (EST) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: GENE, GENE, NEO-LIBERAL MACHINE [By L. Josh Bivens] Dean has tried to move this debate in a positive direction, but I'm going to engage in some more useless sniping at the pro-growth progressive (PGP) crowd. A couple of samples from Gene Sperling 'agonizing' about trade: 'Low-cost imports can cause job dislocation and real pain, but it is also the case that the higher prices that come from trade barriers can be like a regressive tax that hits poorer families four times harder than well-off families. 'Increased global competition has had a mixed record in the last decade: In the late 1990s it was associated with higher wages, less poverty and more good jobs in the late 1990s. [sic] Recently, however, we have seen disturbing developments: e.g. falling wages amidst higher productivity and solid GDP growth and deeper income declines for even the most highly educated dislocated workers. It is crucial that we understand which of these developments are trends and which are exceptions, and that we explore what this means for our trade policy as well as our strategy for public investment, tax reform and health care policies. 'Yet the more and more I hear the arguments put forward, the more I think exactly what we need is more progressive policy wonks who are willing to agonize over what may be some of the most complex and consequential economic issues we face.' At the risk of sounding unbearably obnoxious, I'm going to help Gene figure out the net impact of trade of the majority of American workers, because, it turns out that trade textbooks tell us precisely how to assess this. The most straightforward explanation is called the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, and it says, in a nutshell, that expanded trade harms, in absolute (not just relative) terms, and permanently (not just through tough 'transitions'), the incomes of a nation's 'scarce' factor of production.' The scarce factor' in the US is generally considered to be workers without a college degree.* This is a little non-intuitive, but these workers are scarce in the US because the ratio of them to degreed workers is lower than the equivalent ratio in our trading partners. There was a big debate about this in the economics profession in the early 1990s. Not one single economist argued about the direction of trade's effect -- it was universally agreed that it was negative for these workers. Some said that trade's effect was small, even very small. Some said it was large. But again, there was absolute unanimity that the net effect of trade on these workers was negative, and that trade had exacerbated inequality. So here ends the pedantry. And yes, it is insulting because of course Gene and Jason (and the other PGPers) know about this. So why this public agonizing over the 'real' impact of trade? I'd argue it's just politics. Elsewhere Gene has argued that trade is a 'political orphan', and presumably he covets the overall efficiency gains of trade enough to think that it should be shepherded through the political process with all deliberate speed, even if this means muddying the waters about what economists actually know about the pattern of winnings and losses. Compensation to trade's losers will be taken care of later. For a political orphan, the cause of expanded trade is doing awfully well from my vantage point. The compensation, on the other hand, has been a long time in coming. So have the PGPers really picked the progressive fight here? *This is actually the best-case scenario for maximizing the 'winners' from trade. Original versions of Stolper-Samuelson predicted that all workers would lose out to capital-owners from expanded trade. http://maxspeak.org/mt/archives/001753.html

Subject: Better off without Him From: Setanta To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 07:31:07 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: thought i would post this to encourage an interesting discussion. playing devil's advocate (forgive the pun) so to speak!!! New research suggests that the Christian virtues are best represented in godless societies By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 11th October 2005 Are religious societies better than secular ones? It should be an easy question for athiests to answer. Most of those now seeking to blow people up – whether with tanks and missiles or rucksacks and passenger planes – do so in the name of God. In India, we see men whose religion forbids them to harm insects setting light to human beings. A 14th-century Pope with a 21st-century communications network sustains his church’s mission of persecuting gays and denying women ownership of their bodies. Bishops and rabbis in Britain have just united in the cause of prolonging human suffering, by opposing the legalisation of assisted suicide. We know that the most dangerous human trait is an absence of self-doubt, and that self-doubt is more likely to be absent from the mind of the believer than the infidel. But we also know that few religious governments have committed atrocities on the scale of Hitler’s, Mao’s or Stalin’s (though, given their more limited means, the Spanish and British in the Americas, the British, Germans and Belgians in Africa and the British in Australia and India could be said to have done their best). It is hard to dismiss Dostoyevsky’s suspicion that “if God does not exist, then everything is permissible.”(1) Nor can we wholly disagree with the new Pope when he warns that “we are moving towards a dictatorship of relativism which … has as its highest goal one’s own ego and one’s own desires.”(2) (We must trust, of course, that a man who has spent his life campaigning to become God’s go-between, and who now believes he is infallible, is immune to such impulses). The creationists in the United States might be as mad as a box of ferrets, but what they claim to fear is the question which troubles almost everyone who has stopped to think about it: if our lives have no purpose, why should we care about other people’s? We know too, as Roy Hattersley argued in the Guardian last month, that “good works … are most likely to be performed by people who believe that heaven exists. The correlation is so clear that it is impossible to doubt that faith and charity go hand in hand.”(3) The only two heroes I have met are both Catholic missionaries. Joe Haas, an Austrian I stayed with in the swamp forests of West Papua, had spent his life acting as a human shield for the indigenous people of Indonesia: every few months soldiers threatened to kill him when he prevented them from murdering his parishioners and grabbing their land.(4) Frei Adolfo, the German I met in the savannahs of north-eastern Brazil, thought, when I first knocked on his door, that I was a gunman the ranchers had sent for him. Yet still he opened it. With the other liberation theologists in the Catholic church, he offered the only consistent support to the peasants being attacked by landowners and the government.(5) If they did not believe in God, these men would never have taken such risks for other people. Remarkably, no one, until now, has attempted systematically to answer the question with which this column began. But in the current edition of the Journal of Religion and Society, a researcher called Gregory Paul tests the hypothesis propounded by evangelists in the Bush administration, that religion is associated with lower rates of “lethal violence, suicide, non-monogamous sexual activity and abortion”. He compared data from 18 developed democracies, and discovered that the Christian fundamentalists couldn’t have got it more wrong.(6) “In general, higher rates of belief in and worship of a creator correlate with higher rates of homicide, juvenile and early adult mortality, STD infection rates, teen pregnancy, and abortion … None of the strongly secularized, pro-evolution democracies is experiencing high levels of measurable dysfunction.” Within the United States “the strongly theistic, anti-evolution South and Midwest” have “markedly worse homicide, mortality, STD, youth pregnancy, marital and related problems than the Northeast where … secularization, and acceptance of evolution approach European norms”. Three sets of findings stand out: the associations between religion – especially absolute belief – and juvenile mortality, venereal disease and adolescent abortion. Paul’s graphs show far higher rates of death among the under-5s in Portugal, the US and Ireland and put the US - the most religious country in his survey – in a league of its own for gonorrhea and syphilis. Strangest of all for those who believe that Christian societies are “pro-life” is the finding that “increasing adolescent abortion rates show positive correlation with increasing belief and worship of a creator … Claims that secular cultures aggravate abortion rates (John Paul II) are therefore contradicted by the quantitative data.”(7) These findings appear to match the studies of teenage pregnancy I’ve read. The rich countries in which sexual abstinence campaigns, generally inspired by religious belief, are strongest have the highest early pregnancy rates(8). The US is the only rich nation with teenage pregnancy levels comparable to those of developing nations: it has a worse record than India, the Philippines and Rwanda(9). Because they’re poorly educated about sex and in denial about what they’re doing (and so less likely to use contraceptives), boys who participate in abstinence programmes are more likely to get their partners pregnant than those who don’t(10). Is it fair to blame all this on religion? While the rankings cannot reflect national poverty – the US has the world’s 4th highest GDP per head, Ireland the 8th – the nations which do well in Paul’s study also have higher levels of social spending and distribution than those which do badly. Is this a cause or an association? In other words, are religious societies less likely to distribute wealth than secular ones? In the US, where governments are still guided by the Puritan notions that money is a sign that you’ve been chosen by God and poverty is a mark of moral weakness, Christian belief seems to be at odds with the dispersal of wealth. But the UK - one of the most secular societies in Paul’s study – is also one of the least inclusive, and does rather worse in his charts than countries with similar levels of religion. The broad trend, however, looks clear: “the more secular, pro-evolution democracies have … come closest to achieving practical “cultures of life”.”(11) I don’t know whether these findings can be extrapolated to other countries and other issues: the study doesn’t look, for example, at whether religious belief is associated with a nation’s preparedness to go to war (though I think we could hazard a pretty good guess) or whether religious countries in the poor world are more violent and have weaker cultures of life than secular ones. Nor – because, with the exception of Japan, the countries in his study are predominantly Christian or post-Christian – is it clear whether there’s an association between social dysfunction and religion in general or simply between social dysfunction and Christianity. But if we are to accept the findings of this one – and so far only – wide survey of belief and human welfare, the message to those who claim in any sense to be pro-life is unequivocal. If you want people to behave as Christians advocate, you should tell them that God does not exist. www.monbiot.com References: 1. It’s been pointed out to me that these were not in fact Dostoyevsky’s words, but a summary of his character Ivan Karamazov’s position by Jean-Paul Sartre. See http://www.infidels.org/library/modern/features/2000/cortesi1.html 2. Joseph Ratzinger, 18th April 2005. Homily. Vatican Radio. http://www.oecumene.radiovaticana.org/en1/Articolo.asp?id=33987. 3. Roy Hattersley, 12th September 2005. Faith does breed charity. The Guardian. 4. See George Monbiot 1989, Poisoned Arrows: an investigative journey through Indonesia. Republished 2004 by Green Books. 5. George Monbiot, 1991. Amazon Watershed. Michael Joseph, London. 6. Gregory S. Paul, 2005. Cross-National Correlations of Quantifiable Societal Health with Popular Religiosity and Secularism in the Prosperous Democracies: A First Look. The Journal of Religion and Society, Volume 7. http://moses.creighton.edu/JRS/2005/2005-11.html 7. ibid. 8. Figures from the UNFPA’s State of World Population report 2003 for births per 1000 women between 15 and 19 years old are presented in graph and graphic form at: http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator.cfm?IndicatorID=127&country=GB#rowGB 9. ibid. 10. Alba DiCenso et al, 15th June 2002. Interventions To Reduce Unintended Pregnancies Among Adolescents: Systematic Review Of Randomised Controlled Trials. British Medical Journal 324:1426. 11. Gregory S. Paul, ibid.

Subject: Re: Better off without Him From: Pete Weis To: Setanta Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 08:30:58 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I wonder if religion becomes more 'lethal' the more it becomes entwined with the State. When religion is used by those in power to control the masses, than it becomes less tolerant of those who might stray from or question the state sanctioned religion. It concerns me that the Bush administration may be trying to 'convert' Moslems in the Middle East to more than democratic ideals. Especially, when we remember in Bob Woodward's Plan of Attack, George W. relates that as he came to the decision to invade Iraq he relied on guidance from 'a higher Father' rather than advice from his actual father, the former President.

Subject: A Is for Ancient From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 07:26:36 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/international/middleeast/09alphabet.html?ex=1289192400&en=6f2c7752650aa838&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 9, 2005 A Is for Ancient, Describing an Alphabet Found Near Jerusalem By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD In the 10th century B.C., in the hill country south of Jerusalem, a scribe carved his A B C's on a limestone boulder - actually, his aleph-beth-gimel's, for the string of letters appears to be an early rendering of the emergent Hebrew alphabet. Archaeologists digging in July at the site, Tel Zayit, found the inscribed stone in the wall of an ancient building. After an analysis of the layers of ruins, the discoverers concluded that this was the earliest known specimen of the Hebrew alphabet and an important benchmark in the history of writing, they said this week. If they are right, the stone bears the oldest reliably dated example of an abecedary - the letters of the alphabet written out in their traditional sequence. Several scholars who have examined the inscription tend to support that view. Experts in ancient writing said the find showed that at this stage the Hebrew alphabet was still in transition from its Phoenician roots, but recognizably Hebrew. The Phoenicians lived on the coast north of Israel, in today's Lebanon, and are considered the originators of alphabetic writing, several centuries earlier. The discovery of the stone will be reported in detail next week in Philadelphia, but was described in interviews with Ron E. Tappy, the archaeologist at the Pittsburgh Theological Seminary who directed the dig. 'All successive alphabets in the ancient world, including the Greek one, derive from this ancestor at Tel Zayit,' he said. The research is supported by an anonymous donor to the seminary, which has a long history in archaeological field work. The project is also associated with the American Schools of Oriental Research and the W. F. Albright Institute for Archaeological Research, in Jerusalem. Frank Moore Cross Jr., a Harvard expert on early Hebrew inscriptions who was not involved in the research, said the inscription 'is a very early Hebrew alphabet, maybe the earliest, and the letters I have studied are what I would expect to find in the 10th century' before Christ. P. Kyle McCarter Jr., an authority on ancient Middle Eastern writing at Johns Hopkins University, was more cautious, describing the inscription as 'a Phoenician type of alphabet that is being adapted.' But he added, 'I do believe it is proto-Hebrew, but I can't prove it for certain.' Lawrence E. Stager, an archaeologist at Harvard engaged in other excavations in Israel, said the pottery styles at the site 'fit perfectly with the 10th century, which makes this an exceedingly rare inscription.' But he added that more extensive radiocarbon dating would be needed to establish the site's chronology. The Tel Zayit stone was uncovered at an eight-acre site in the region of ancient Judah, south of Jerusalem, and 18 miles inland from Ashkelon, an ancient Philistine port. The two lines of incised letters, apparently the 22 symbols of the Hebrew alphabet, were on one face of the 40-pound stone. A bowl-shaped hollow was carved in the other side, suggesting that the stone had been a drinking vessel for cult rituals, Dr. Tappy said. The stone, he added, may have been embedded in the wall because of a belief in the alphabet's power to ward off evil. In a study of the alphabet, Dr. McCarter noted that the Phoenician-based letters were 'beginning to show their own characteristics.' The Phoenician symbol for what is the equivalent of a K is a three-stroke trident; in the transitional inscription, the right stroke is elongated, beginning to look like a backward K. Another baffling peculiarity is that in four cases the letters are reversed in sequence; an F, for example, comes before an E. The inscription was found in the context of a substantial network of buildings at the site, which led Dr. Tappy to propose that Tel Zayit was probably an important border town established by an expanding Israelite kingdom based in Jerusalem. A border town of such size and culture, Dr. Tappy said, suggested a centralized bureaucracy, political leadership and literacy levels that seemed to support the biblical image of the unified kingdom of David and Solomon in the 10th century B.C. 'That puts us right in the middle of the squabble over whether anything important happened in Israel in that century,' Dr. Stager said. A vocal minority of scholars contend that the Bible's picture of the 10th century B.C. as a golden age in Israelite history is insupportable. Some archaeological evidence, they say, suggests that David and Solomon were little more than tribal chieftains and that it was another century before a true political state emerged. Dr. Tappy acknowledged that he was inviting controversy by his interpretation of the Tel Zayit stone and other artifacts as evidence of a fairly advanced political system 3,000 years ago. Critics who may accept the date and description of the inscription are expected to challenge him when he reports on the findings next week in Philadelphia at meetings of the American Schools of Oriental Research and the Society of Biblical Literature.

Subject: Turning Supermarkets Into Restaurants From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 07:07:44 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/28/realestate/28sqft.html?ex=1282881600&en=3222c88310e263cc&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss August 28, 2005 Turning Supermarkets Into Restaurants, Too By TERI KARUSH ROGERS AS anyone who has walked into a Whole Foods Market lately knows, high-end grocery stores are increasingly designed to appeal to those who like to eat but rarely cook. Food stores are now aiming to satisfy immediate cravings, through ready-to-eat cuisine ranging from arugula salad with croutons to duck legs braised in red wine. It is becoming harder to tell where the store stops and the restaurant begins. Are supermarket designers coming up with food stores - or restaurants? 'Virtually any major-sized new stores and a lot of remodels will have some sort of space set aside for in-store eating of ready-to-eat foods,' said Stephen Dowdell, editor in chief of Progressive Grocer magazine. Adding what amounts to a restaurant to a supermarket requires some big changes in the standard designs. Instead of being relegated to the meat department, prepared foods are moving to the front. A look at food stores that have begun to offer a large selection of prepared foods, and places to eat them, shows some common design precepts at work: EASY IN, EASY OUT Recognizing that convenience is crucial - and that the lunchtime crowd, for instance, isn't willing or able to stock up on household staples - stores cannot prompt impulse buys by putting prepared foods in remote locations. 'Making the prepared foods easily accessible from the front door, making it easy for people to get to it and pay and get out without going through the whole store, is a big deal,' said Bill R. Bishop, the president of Willard Bishop Consulting in Barrington, Ill. APPEAL TO THE SENSES At Agata & Valentina, the independent gourmet market in Manhattan, 'as soon as you walk in, you know you want to eat,' said Emily Balducci, the director of public relations, because the aromas of regional Sicilian cooking permeate the store. 'What we did is create an on-floor kitchen cooking all day so you can watch and smell the food being prepared, which is very key.' Mr. Bishop agrees with the importance of making the preparation visible. 'Having people see the food being prepared,' he said, 'is very important because it communicates the product is fresh.' Whole Foods has made much of the open-kitchen concept. Each prepared-food station is designed to be as exposed as possible, with nearly as much attention paid to the beautiful stainless steel utensils as to high-quality ingredients. The appearance of accessibility is intended to encourage communication on the level, say, of a Disneyfied European marketplace: Whole Foods' workers, for instance, are trained to converse with customers. LET THE FOOD SPEAK FOR ITSELF When asked about their design tricks, retailers say they favor an unadorned, often industrial, palette (waxed concrete floors, stainless steel cases, slate walls) that serves as a canvas for the food. 'It's not about decoration,' said Jack Ceglic, a founder of Dean & DeLuca and an architect whose firm, Ceglic Design, plans the stores' visual identity. 'The color palette is as simple as can be -white and gray and touches of black. There's never been any color added, only the food.' In Manhattan, the progression of restaurant food into supermarkets has been most vivid at Whole Foods, which has been raising the ante in its three hugely successful stores. The first, a 40,000-square-foot store that opened in the Chelsea neighborhood in 2001, offered no place where customers could sit down and snack on ready-to-eat foods. Three years later, the 59,000-square-foot store at the Time Warner Center introduced a sleek 300-seat dining area for eating store-bought food, and incorporated a juice bar. This year, at its new 50,000-square-foot store at Union Square, it offered a somewhat smaller 180-seat dining section on the upper level, but unlike the Time Warner store, it allowed shoppers to bypass the rest of the store altogether and order from the juice and coffee bars or graze among an abbreviated selection of prepared foods. But according to Whole Foods' northeast regional president, Christina Minardi, these are mere baby steps. Executives at the company have been emboldened by the success of 'minirestaurants' scattered throughout the chain's recently opened 80,000-square-foot concept store in Austin, Tex. 'It was the first time we had a sit-down food venue, where you order your food and get a glass of wine,' Ms. Minardi said of the Texas store. 'There's a raw bar, a barbecue station, a trattoria, a cheese venue with cheese and wine, and the food comes on real plates. It revolutionizes and changes the whole company.' Whole Foods intends to borrow those ideas liberally for the sweeping bilevel 76,000-square-foot store under construction in a luxury apartment building at Bowery and Houston Street in Manhattan. 'We're doing a bunch of food venues,' Ms. Minardi said of the store's mezzanine. 'We're doing a sit-down sushi and noodle bowl station; we're doing a trattoria where pastas will be cooked to order, a coffee bar, a raw juice bar.' (Other innovations borrowed from the concept store will include a cooking school, a bookstore and a Whole Home store, consisting of a mock New York City apartment furnished with organic sheets, towels and other accessories.) Elsewhere in Manhattan, Balducci's plans to endow its new store at Eighth Avenue and 14th Street with a 60-seat dining area, where customers can eat foods from the 'enormous' prepared-food section under the chef Katy Sparks, according to Mark S. Ordan, Balducci's president and chief executive. The store is to open this fall. Agata & Valentina, on First Avenue at 79th Street, doubled its prepared-foods section during a renovation seven years ago, but lacked the space for extensive in-store dining. Instead, next month it is to open a 'semi self serve' restaurant across First Avenue. Called the Agata & Valentina Food Bar, it is to be open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. The transformation of parts of supermarkets into quick-serve restaurants has everything to do with the runaway success of prepared foods. The category is expanding almost twice as fast as food sold to be prepared at home, Mr. Bishop said. Sales of regular food are growing about 2 to 2.5 percent a year, he said, compared with 4 to 4.5 percent for prepared food. Though the labor costs can be higher, gross profits average around 60 to 65 percent for prepared foods, versus 30 to 35 percent for traditional supermarket purchases. Even stores that forgo on-site dining 'can't just sell traditional groceries anymore and develop the same traffic and loyalty and following as a store that's done a great job with prepared foods,' Mr. Bishop said. The shift began in the 1980's, when two-career families needed to simplify dinner. In those days, prepared foods in supermarkets were not sophisticated. 'It was mostly fried chicken and other fried foods born out of the deli part of the meat department at the back of stores,' said Todd A. Hultquist, a spokesman for the Food Marketing Institute in Washington. Retailers worked hard to improve their marketing of prepared-food offerings. 'If you go to stores with beautifully presented, high-quality ingredients and a personality behind the counter that can help you navigate, it's a home run,' said Phil Lempert, the food trend editor for NBC's 'Today' show and the editor of Supermarketguru.com. He predicted that in 10 years, prepared foods would constitute 50 percent of supermarket offerings.

Subject: The Virtue in $6 Heirloom Tomatoes From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 07:06:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/06/magazine/06WHOLE.html?ex=1401854400&en=81d217b452782273&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND June 6, 2004 The Virtue in $6 Heirloom Tomatoes By JON GERTNER John Mackey was sitting at a conference table in Austin, Tex., explaining what he calls ''the paradox of food shopping in America.'' Mackey, who started Whole Foods Market in Austin nearly 25 years ago and currently serves as the company's C.E.O. and president, is known for being casual, opinionated and very direct. On a scale of C.E.O. bluntness, with Ted Turner a 10, Mackey might rate an 8 -- or, on a banner day, a 9. On a scale of C.E.O. complexity, he would be off the charts. Current and former colleagues describe Mackey, 50, as both spiritual and calculating, forthright and aloof, humble and arrogant, good-natured and prickly. And Mackey himself does little to dispel the contradictions. He says he is pro-employee but is avowedly anti-union. He calls himself pro-customer but acknowledges that he runs a store with higher profit margins (and prices, often) than almost any other grocer. He is avowedly pro-capitalism but also pro-love. Asked once to list the principles he lives by, he included his belief that ''love is the only reality. Everything else,'' he added, ''is merely a dream or illusion.'' Mackey -- dressed in a short-sleeve polo shirt, shorts and running shoes -- sat back in his chair and sketched out his point in a light Texas accent. ''Americans love to shop, right?'' he asked. ''We love to shop. And Americans love to eat. We're the fattest nation on earth. But paradoxically we don't love to shop for food. Grocery shopping in America for the most part is a chore.'' To his credit, Mackey tried to address this problem before almost anybody else. Yet he began as a food entrepreneur not so much to introduce style into the supermarket aisles as to influence the health and eating habits of the next generation of Americans. His original stores were big on nuts and grains and loaves dense as doorstops. It was food that took some serious chewing. The produce often came from farmers who showed up unannounced at the backdoor with muddy boots and battered pickup trucks. Tomatoes, turnips, carrots, basil -- it might be local, it might be organic, it might be both; it just depended on the day. In the 80's and 90's, Whole Foods opened up new branches and bought up other natural grocers, poured enormous resources into beautifying its store decor and established its quality standards. The company acted, in the words of one executive, as ''the editor'' for its customers, drawing a bright line between what is and is not a ''whole,'' or unadulterated, food. At any of the 150 American branches, you can now find ice cream (but only with natural sweeteners), sausage (from animals treated humanely) or a (nitrate-free) prosciutto sandwich. You cannot find Pepperidge Farm cookies or anything with trans fats, synthetic preservatives or artificial colors. To customers familiar with the company, which is poised to become one of the 500 largest businesses in America (it is currently 508 on Fortune's list) and which recently began a conspicuous invasion of New York with a spectacular store at Columbus Circle and soon-to-come emporiums in Union Square and Park Slope, Whole Foods still carries a patchouli whiff, a lingering reputation for being crunchy and countercultural and somewhat earnest. Mackey says he thinks this is amusing as well as mistaken. His customers are not alt-lifestyle types, Mackey says; nor does ethnicity or geography define them. The company is growing at a steady clip in the South and Midwest; it has increasingly wide appeal in Asian, Hispanic and African-American communities, and it will open a store next year in center-city Oakland. Mackey's market research suggests that Whole Foods doesn't appeal to any unique demographic these days other than highly educated people who are willing to spend more on what they eat. The prices have lent the chain its unflattering nickname: Whole Paycheck. Yet just as it is inexact to dismiss Whole Foods as hippie artifact, it is simplistic to ascribe its growth to the country's swelling class of luxury-seeking elites. A number of years ago, Mackey and his team bet on a big idea: that mainstream Americans, even those with only the vaguest concerns about the integrity of the agribusiness food chain, would decide that it made sense to pay more for better food -- that is, food with ''whole'' and ''natural'' ingredients, sold by a purveyor they felt confident about -- just as they would pay more for better cars or kitchen cabinets. Harvey Hartman, head of a Seattle-based consumer marketing group who does work for Whole Foods, attributes the payoff of that bet partly to something he calls retrieval: in a society brimming with the ersatz and the inauthentic, where consumers increasingly attempt to save what's soulful from disappearing cultural traditions, Whole Foods' premodern authenticity, or its appearance of premodern authenticity, presents an opportunity to reclaim meaning. There's also a less high-minded explanation: Hartman says that Mackey's stores appeal smartly to our ''messiness.'' People are messy in their habits and shopping preferences, he says. That's why Whole Foods, in its something-for-everyone largess, is categorically messy, or inconsistent, too. It responds to how health-conscious Americans actually live (eating H* agen-Dazs after a stir-fry) rather than how they feel they should live (by finishing lunch with a pomegranate frappe). As a yoga-practicing-vegetarian-libertarian who admires Ronald Reagan and prefers The Wall Street Journal editorial page to this newspaper's, you might say Mackey is a little messy himself. Mackey's next project, after more than two decades spent trying to reinvent the supermarket, is to change the values and reputation of business in America. ''Business is always painted as the bad guys,'' he remarks. ''They're the ones who are greedy, selfish, the ones who despoil the environment. They're never the heroes. Business has done a terrible job of portraying itself as invaluable. And it never will be accepted by society as long as business says it has no responsibility except for maximizing profits.'' Mackey's efforts at rehabilitating the good name of business have involved speaking to college students and talking up the Whole Foods ''stakeholder'' philosophy, which emphasizes the importance of satisfying customers and employees before shareholders. His argument is that a responsible business benefits all its stakeholders, including the local community and the environment; he also asserts such a business will naturally enjoy a higher stock price. If his own track record is any indication -- $10,000 invested in Whole Foods when it went public in 1992 is now worth more than $198,000 -- he may have a point. At the moment, he is at work on a book, due out next year, that lays out his business ideals in detail. In the meantime, he intends to make some waves. Tired of the way Wall Street's analysts enlist corporate executives in the setting of important quarterly earnings targets -- often with the effect of punishing the stock of companies that fail to meet them -- Mackey has decided Whole Foods will not play the short-term expectations game. ''It's stupid,'' he says. ''When we announce our year-end 2004 results next November, we're going to announce a totally different way we're going to relate to the investment community.'' Just a few days before, he explains, his corporate board gave him the O.K. on this. It's debatable whether Mackey's philosophy of stewardship differs as radically from mainstream corporate America as he seems to believe. It's more likely that Whole Foods is modestly different in many respects, and that such modest differences have amounted to a business that is somewhat unconventional. Many large companies (Costco, for instance) share a stakeholder model that makes a priority of customer and employee satisfaction. Other large companies (like Starbucks and British Petroleum) have serious community and environmental commitments. And some influential businesses place reasonable limits on executive compensation (Warren Buffett earned about $300,000 last year in total compensation from Berkshire Hathaway). Whole Foods does these things and a few others. About 94 percent of its stock options go to nonexecutives, for example, and any employee may see the salary of any other, regardless of rank. Mackey's own salary is about $400,000 a year, owing to a policy that bars officers from earning more than 14 times what the average company employee makes. That means that the average worker at Whole Foods earns in the range of $29,000 -- not bad for the grocery industry, but not enough to keep the company from pitched battles with unions, most recently in Madison, Wis., where in July 2002 workers voted in favor of representation by the United Food and Commercial Workers. (Mackey says the union's victory, which was certified and then decertified, resulted from his inattention to workers' concerns, and he spent the past year visiting all of the Whole Foods stores in the country in order to bond with his employees and to shore up enthusiasm.) What really separates Whole Foods from other companies, according to Mackey, is the mission that weaves the company's ideals together. Mackey and two former partners, Craig Weller and Mark Skiles, founded Whole Foods in 1980 in a 10,000-square-foot space down the road from the company's current Austin headquarters. It wasn't until 1985, though, when the company had about 600 workers (it now has 29,500) that Whole Foods tried to lay out formally what it really wanted. Mackey and about 60 employees spent several weekends that year at a retreat working out their business principles and boiling them down to a few pages they called the Declaration of Interdependence. Mackey had little idea what a mission statement should look like, but the resulting stakeholder model and guiding principles -- sell quality food, please customers, satisfy employees, create wealth, respect the environment and conduct a responsible business, all at the same time -- have served the company well for more than 20 years. What Mackey calls his business model is, in effect, the practice of giving customers what they want: a profusion of fish, meats, fruits and vegetables, presented with detailed explanations, far beyond what's required by law, of where it all comes from and how it was grown, caught or processed. But customers may be getting more than abundance. At Whole Foods stores, the mission statement (or pieces of it) is posted on walls, listed in free pamphlets, voiced by employees and managers in every aisle. Customers are not only consuming the groceries at Whole Foods. They are also buying its values. And this could be the most revolutionary thing about Whole Foods. Of course, the mission may be only so many words. You can't help wondering if the company's ideals and neologisms mask convention more than change it. Employees are ''team members''; managers are ''team leaders''; the annual corporate report declares, ''We believe in a virtuous circle entwining the food chain, human beings, and the earth; each reliant upon the others through a delicate symbiosis.'' It's not difficult to get numerous former employees and executives to say unflattering things about Mackey, who is widely known to be tough to work for. Yet it is hard to find anyone who has ever been involved with the company who doubts Mackey's commitment, or who questions whether Whole Foods is an innovative enterprise. And for those who would challenge his vision, Mackey has a response: their problem isn't with Whole Foods itself but with the expectation of what Whole Foods should be. Human nature makes it hard to categorize something novel and complex. Where we see contradictions in him or in Whole Foods, he sees continuity; where we see compromises, he sees progressive good sense; where we see pragmatism, he sees big-tent idealism. Above all, where we recognize a fast-growing company making cosmetic adjustments to timeworn business practices, he beholds a gleaming new paradigm. When I asked Mackey about the rhetoric of Whole Foods, he replied bluntly: ''People say, 'They just changed the words.' It's O.K. They can believe that. I'm not out to convert anybody. I'm just doing what we're doing, and a lot of young people really like it. I don't care if you don't get it. In fact you're doing me a favor by not getting it. Because you're stuck in the old way, you're wedded to a business model that is ceasing to work very well.'' Mckey is known to read several books a week, and his answers to questions are often studded with references to heady stuff like Thomas S. Kuhn's ''Structure of Scientific Revolutions'' and Adam Smith's ''Wealth of Nations.'' In conversation these quotations come off as reflective rather than grandiose -- evidence that he trolls good distances from ''Who Moved My Cheese?'' for business insights. Indeed, Mackey compares the idea of natural foods and more healthful eating to Charles Darwin. Survival of the fittest was a fringe belief that caught on only when a resistant generation died off and younger, more open-minded people discerned its value. Mackey says he thinks Whole Foods benefits from the fact that our culture, and especially our food culture, is shifting profoundly. The old idea was A&P and Shop Rite: the milk always in one place and the meat in another, the Muzak and fluorescent lights and wheels rolling over linoleum producing a supermarket trance that was exactly the same in Connecticut as in California. The old idea was Mom going to the store once a week and rarely reading labels. The old idea was male grocery executives and store managers and a clientele that was almost exclusively women. In Mackey's view, consumer evolution necessitates a change in the look and feel of grocery stores. It obliges retailers to understand that a sizable portion of consumers (up to 65 percent) are willing to pay more for organic food. It demands a new kind of empathy for an American family that has changed its eating habits (cooking less, shopping more often and buying more prepared foods) and its makeup (more single parents, fewer children). A large number of women hold executive positions within Whole Foods, Mackey points out, and store designs depend greatly on women's preferences. ''We have a lot more feminine energy here,'' he says. Whole Foods has also been helped by the entrepreneurs who have been driving the organic and natural-foods movements for the past three decades. The company has incorporated ideas and employees from the chains it has bought -- Bread & Circus and Fresh Fields in the Northeast, Mrs. Gooch's in the West, Wellspring in North Carolina -- even as many of its vendors have followed the same path from fringe to hip to the edge of mainstream. There seems to be some agreement among Mackey and businessmen like Steve Demos, the president of White Wave, which makes Silk soy milk, that the battles for consumer attention (good taste, recognizable brands), as well as the fight for agricultural validation (sustainable farming, no antibiotics), have largely been won. It's the push to get their ideas about socially responsible business into the mainstream that is just beginning. Demos says: ''Wall Street -- that's where the fun begins. They only measure one thing, the bottom line. My goal is to demonstrate that the principle-based business model is more profitable than its counterpart, and when we do, Wall Street will chase us instead of the other way around.'' Hence the virtue of big profits. ''Our industry should focus on making the most money possible,'' he says. Mackey, of course, is just as fervent a capitalist -- or neocapitalist, as he calls himself, since he characterizes his early political views as socialist and says his ardor for free markets came late in life. He simply maintains that there is no conflict between an aggressively capitalistic enterprise like Whole Foods and a socially responsible enterprise like Whole Foods. He is steadfast that his company will never compromise with Wall Street on its values -- the 5 percent of profits given every year to charity, the installation of solar panels on the tops of some stores, the payment to employees for their community service. At the same time, Mackey says the company won't compromise its intentions to make as much money as possible along the way. ''One of the things that's held back natural foods for a long time is that most of the other people in this business never really embraced capitalism the way I did,'' Mackey says. It irks Mackey that some of his oldest customers don't accept that the road to profitability runs directly into the mainstream. ''I don't know how many letters we get from people who resent that,'' he says. He affects a mocking tone: '' 'You've sold out,' they say, or, 'Don't forget about the little people who supported you when you were nothing.' '' It's interesting, he adds, that when an idea that began on the fringe hits the mainstream, it's no longer hip and cool, even if it preserves its integrity and values, as he says he believes his company has. ''America has a love affair with small businesses, the Jimmy Stewart, 'It's a Wonderful Life' kind of businesses,'' he says. ''But when they get to be big, they're no longer good, they must be evil.'' The plan for Whole Foods, as it happens, is to grow to 300 stores by 2010, and to make deep commercial inroads on Canada and the United Kingdom. By then, Mackey says, it should have at least $10 billion in annual sales. He also says that's just a start. Across from his Austin office is the future headquarters of Whole Foods Market, an enormous building still under construction that will house the grocer's new flagship store on the first floor -- all of 80,000 square feet -- which Mackey has privately declared will be the grandest supermarket in the world. And which of course leaves little doubt. Love may or may not be the only reality. And big may or may not be better. But to Mackey, big is what a big idea needs to be.

Subject: Evolution and the Electorate From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 06:23:46 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/10/opinion/10thur3.html November 10, 2005 Evolution and the Electorate Voters in Dover, Pa., came to their senses this week and tossed out almost the entire school board, which had tried to discredit the theory of evolution and steer students toward the theory of 'intelligent design' - the idea that life forms are so complex that a higher being must have made them. Let's hope the voters in Kansas follow suit next year by ejecting several benighted members of the State Board of Education, which has just approved new science standards that open the way for supernatural explanations of natural phenomena. The Dover schools are the first in the nation to require that attention be paid to intelligent design. Administrators read a brief statement to biology classes asserting that evolution was only a theory, that intelligent design provided an alternative explanation and that a book on intelligent design was available in the library. That roundabout effort to undermine the teaching of evolution has been challenged as unconstitutional in the courts, with a verdict expected by early January. Meanwhile, Kansas seems to be veering once again toward supernatural science. Six years ago, the Kansas State Board of Education gutted its statewide science standards to eliminate evolution as an explanation for the development of humanity, and tossed out the Big Bang theory of the origin of the universe as well. That madness was reversed the following year, when voters dumped three of the conservative board members responsible. Now the current board has narrowly approved new science standards that leave evolution in place but add specific criticisms that schools are urged to teach. Most significant, the definition of science is changed so it is not limited to natural explanations. The standards, which define the material to be covered in statewide science tests, won't take effect until 2007 at the earliest. That leaves time for the electorate to once again dump the board members responsible for this lunacy.

Subject: An Identity Crisis for Supermarkets From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 06:20:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/business/06grocery.html?ex=1286251200&en=21957c40386e7468&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 6, 2005 An Identity Crisis for Supermarkets By MELANIE WARNER Georgiana Gardiner has no use for conventional supermarkets. When Ms. Gardiner, who lives in a Denver suburb, wants fresh fish, meats, produce, and other perishables, she drives 25 minutes to the nearest Whole Foods Market. When she needs products like canned beans, pasta and paper towels, she stops at a Wal-Mart Supercenter, which has a full grocery store. It has been at least a year, she said, since she entered a Safeway or Kroger, the two national supermarket chains that operate in the Denver area. 'Once you go to start eating organic foods, you can't go back,' said Ms. Gardiner, 61. Whole Foods may be 'more expensive, but it's worth it,' she added. 'Anyway, I make up some of the difference at Wal-Mart.' Ms. Gardiner and a growing number of shoppers like her are the supermarket industry's worst nightmare. Faced with a seemingly endless array of food shopping choices, consumers are increasingly shunning the neighborhood supermarket and going to Wal-Mart, Costco or other discounters for rock-bottom prices or to places like Whole Foods and Wild Oats for specialized quality and service. Traditional supermarkets, caught in the middle, are struggling to survive. And the pressures on them may only intensify: Wal-Mart and Whole Foods have ambitious expansion plans, and Target says it wants to become a big player, too. Now, the traditional supermarkets are trying everything they can think of to turn things around and win back customers. In a nod to Whole Foods, they are adding more organic and natural food items and selling more prepared foods for quick lunches and dinners. And they are cutting prices. The nation's 56,000 supermarkets remain dominant in food shopping, of course, but their share of the business has been steadily declining. Americans are making fewer trips down their aisles and spending less each visit. The average American household made 95 trips a year to the supermarket in 1996; in 2004 it was 70, according to a study by UBS, an investment bank. In that eight-year span, annual trips to stores like Wal-Mart jumped to 26 from 13, and trips to club stores like Costco increased to 11 from 8. 'Supermarkets are facing an identity crisis,' said Harvey Hartman, chief executive of the Hartman Group, a consulting firm in Seattle. In the last five years, Wal-Mart has emerged as a dominant force in the grocery business, selling almost twice the amount of food and grocery items as Kroger, the country's largest supermarket chain. Wal-Mart undercuts supermarket prices by as much as 20 percent but is still able to generate considerable grocery profits because of its enormous volume and huge buying power. Wal-Mart's labor costs are also lower because, unlike workers at most supermarkets, its employees are not unionized. 'Wal-Mart just keeps growing,' said David B. Dillon, chief executive of Kroger, which regularly compares the performance of its stores against Wal-Mart Supercenters. 'And I don't see any signs of a slowdown in the number of stores.' Wal-Mart, with 1,866 supercenters in the United States, all with grocery stores, does not break out food sales, but Retail Forward, a research firm in Columbus, Ohio, estimates that in 2004 the company sold $109 billion in groceries, taking a 19 percent share of the market. Retail Forward has projected that the number of Wal-Mart supercenters may triple by 2010 and that its share of the grocery business may rise to 35 percent. Supermarkets are feeling the squeeze. In February, Winn-Dixie Stores filed for bankruptcy; at 92 percent of its stores, a Wal-Mart Supercenter is within a 20-mile radius. Last month, Albertsons, whose market share has declined in Wal-Mart strongholds like Dallas and Fort Worth, announced it had hired investment bankers to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. Other chains are faring only slightly better. Over the last five years, sales at Kroger, Albertsons and Safeway, the country's three largest supermarket chains, have stagnated and profits have been dismal. With 177 stores and less than 1 percent of the market, Whole Foods is not yet much of a financial threat. But analysts say that supermarket executives are anxiously watching the company, the fastest-growing grocery chain in the United States, because of how its success has pressured supermarkets to improve their offerings. 'Whole Foods has redefined the landscape of what a grocery store is,' Mr. Hartman said. 'That means more fresh items, bigger produce sections, more selection for natural and organic foods and more prepared foods. It also means creating an enjoyable experience for shoppers.' Neil Currie, an analyst at UBS, said the situation for supermarkets is dire. For years, he said, supermarkets failed to respond to consumers' migration toward restaurants and their increased desire for natural foods. Today, 46.9 percent of all food dollars are spent at restaurants and similar establishments, compared with 41.3 percent in 1985, according to the Agriculture Department. 'If nothing changes, the format could die a slow death as Wal-Mart and other nontraditional formats continue to take market share,' Mr. Currie predicted in a report last year. Mr. Dillon of Kroger said supermarkets must provide a variety of shopping experiences and products. To that end, Kroger is building three alternative formats. One is Fresh Fare stores, which operate inside Ralphs stores, and offer a higher level of service and carry many of the products found at Whole Foods, like organic produce, sushi, an olive bar, hundreds of cheeses and 2,000 wines. Another, Kroger's Marketplace, offers stores that are twice the size of a typical grocery store and sell everything from electronics and kitchen appliances to home office furniture and dishes. The product selection resembles that of Wal-Mart, though prices are not as low. Kroger's third format is its 142 Food 4 Less stores, which are no-frills warehouse operations seeking to compete with Wal-Mart on price. Mr. Dillon said Kroger's standard supermarkets would also be increasingly customized, with some carrying more organic and natural food and others offering a specialty cheese section or products catering to Hispanic customers. 'There will be as many kinds of supermarkets,' Mr. Dillon said, 'as there are variations in the neighborhoods across America.' Food Lion, a 1,220-store chain owned by the Delhaize Group of Brussels, is making changes. Robin Johnson, director for marketing and brand development at Food Lion, said that when her team started working on a new store concept called Bloom three years ago, they took a red pen to every aspect of supermarket design. 'For the past several decades, stores have been run in a way that benefits the store and the company's bottom line,' Ms. Johnson said. By contrast, she said, the new store concept 'was born from what the customer wants: to take the hassle out of grocery shopping.' Bloom stores - there are now five, all in North Carolina - feature a quick-stop area in front for shoppers who just want eggs and milk or something for dinner. Traditionally, supermarkets have placed such high-volume items at the back of the store in hopes that the journey may inspire other purchases. 'Why have we played these games with customers?' Ms. Johnson asked. The new stores also have wider aisles, lower shelves and no candy at the checkout aisles, to cut down on temptations for children. Ice cream is at the front so it is less likely to melt before reaching home. Ms. Johnson and her team have also banned promotional displays from the aisles, saying that they generate nice fees from vendors, but clog cart traffic. 'Taking them out is a scary thing for a retailer to do,' she said, 'because it's revenue and they're designed to drive impulse sales.' Many stores are experimenting with slashing prices - a tactic that can be equally terrifying. 'In the 90's, supermarkets focused on raising their gross margins and were obsessed with short-term needs of shareholders,' Mr. Currie said. 'That allowed Wal-Mart to come in and easily take market share.' In an attempt to appeal to time-starved consumers who do not want to cook, Kroger and Safeway are also making a big push to sell more prepared foods - an area that has been enormously successful for Whole Foods, representing 10 percent of a store's sales. Safeway's remodeled Lifestyle stores have an expanded deli, a full line of soups, a meat-carving station and 'take and bake' pizza. Brian Cornell, executive vice president for marketing at Safeway, said these stores, which also have softer lighting and wood-simulated floors in parts of the store, are meant to feel more upscale. 'We offer more items now that would appeal to customers who might be migrating to Whole Foods,' he said. 'But we're also trying to differentiate ourselves among our core competitors.' Christina Minardi, head of the New York-New Jersey-Connecticut region for Whole Foods, said she doubted large chains would be able to replicate the appeal of her company's stores. 'It's a lot more than paint and new lighting,' she said. 'We have developed a whole culture here.' Indeed, despite their efforts, many analysts expect supermarkets to continue to lose out to their competitors. Darrell Rigby, who leads the retail consulting team at Bain & Company, said some chains, probably smaller ones, will either go out of business or be acquired. Nick McCoy, a senior consultant at Retail Forward, said, 'Supermarkets have got to offer a compelling reason for people to go there.'

Subject: An Organic Cash Cow From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 06:16:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/dining/09milk.html?ex=1289192400&en=56f6d844b3f563cf&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 9, 2005 An Organic Cash Cow By KIM SEVERSON Alexis Gersten, a Long Island dentist, never thought about what she poured over her cereal until her son turned 1. 'Having a new milk drinker, I sort of wanted to start him off on the right foot,' she said. Ms. Gersten worried about what synthetic growth hormones, pesticides and antibiotics might do to her child and to the environment. She was concerned about the health of the cows and the survival of local farmers. So she became one of the new mothers who are making milk the fastest growing slice of the organic market. 'Some of my friends who don't really think about feeding their children organic food will feed them organic milk,' she said. Milk represents all that is wholesome. Add the word organic, and the purity of milk's image only increases. But a carton of organic milk does not come without complications. It is expensive. Some brands are processed so that an unopened carton can last for months. And an organic seal does not necessarily mean the cows are grazing on pasture or that the milk is local. Organic milk accounts for more than 3 percent of all milk sold in the United States. But with an annual growth rate of 23 percent in an era when overall milk consumption is dropping by 8 percent a year, organic milk has made the nation's $10.2 billion-a-year dairy industry take notice. Horizon Organic, which controls 55 percent of the market, is selling $16 million worth of organic milk a month. It is owned by Dean Foods, the nation's largest dairy producer. Groupe Danone, the French dairy giant, owns Stonyfield Farm. Large grocers, including Whole Foods Market and Safeway, have organic house brands. Wal-Mart even sells it. 'It's being held back only by supply now,' said George Siemon, chief executive of Organic Valley. A Wisconsin dairy cooperative that Mr. Siemon began in 1988, it is the second-largest seller of organic milk in the country. Milk is considered a gateway to organic food. Along with produce it is one of the first organic products a consumer will buy, according to the Hartman Group, a research firm in Bellevue, Wash. The ethos of organic milk - one that its cartons reinforce - conjures lush pastures dotted with grazing animals, their milk production driven by nothing more than nature's hand and a helpful family farmer. But choosing organic milk doesn't guarantee much beyond this: It comes from a cow whose milk production was not prompted by an artificial growth hormone, whose feed was not grown with pesticides and which had 'access to pasture,' a term so vague it could mean that a cow might spend most of its milk-producing life confined to a feed lot eating grain and not grass. Exactly how much time cows should spend grazing before their milk can carry the government's organic label is under scrutiny. Several hundred farmers and organic advocates want organic dairy rules tightened so that cows have more than what they call token access to pasture. The issue may be ultimately decided in court, said Mark Kastel of the Cornucopia Institute in Wisconsin. His organization is fighting the rise of confinement organic dairies, which, by his estimate, account for about 30 percent of the organic milk sold. So, what's a well-intentioned milk drinker to do? Decide what matters to you most. First, weigh the importance of the organic label. Milk from the Ronnybrook Farm Dairy in the Hudson Valley, which is sold in bottles at Manhattan's Greenmarkets, is not certified organic. The dairy uses no artificial growth hormones, but it treats sick animals with antibiotics. In the summer the animals eat mostly pasture; in the winter they eat hay with grain mixed in. It is a sustainable operation whose owners decided that the term 'organic' was becoming co-opted by large corporations, and that the extra cost of the federal organic label was not worth it. For some, milk that has not traveled far and that comes from cows in small pasture-based operations is more important than an official stamp. Many connoisseurs say the best milk comes from cows who eat mostly grass. The flavor is more complex, and varies with the seasons. In addition, a grass diet leads to milk with as much as five times the amount of conjugated linoleic acid, which some studies using animal models show can help fight cancer. And grazing is better for the cows' health than a diet of grain. 'We believe in the benefits of grass,' Mr. Siemon of Organic Valley said, not that all of the 534 farmers who sell the cooperative milk can meet its pasture standards. Weather and other factors can mean cows' diets must be supplemented with grain. For Horizon, the issue is supply and demand, said Caragh McLaughlin, brand manager for the company. The diet of Horizon cows can be as much as 40 percent grain, whether the animals are at one of the 300 family-run dairies that sell milk to Horizon or its two large company-owned operations. One is a 4,500-head dairy in Idaho, the other a 600-head facility in Maryland. All Horizon cows have access to pasture. There is also the issue of pasteurized and ultrapasteurized, a question that weighs shelf life against taste and geography. Dairies pasteurize milk to kill bacteria and other pathogens that can make people sick and to keep it fresher longer. In pasteurization milk is heated to about 162 degrees for at least 15 seconds. Dairies then stamp cartons with a sell-by date generally from 10 to 16 days after processing. In ultrapasteurization the milk temperature is raised to 280 degrees for about two seconds, then quickly chilled. The sell-by date can be several weeks in the future. For example, a brand of ultrapasteurized milk purchased at a New York store on Nov. 2 had a sell-by date of Jan. 2. Ultrapasteurized milk can taste creamier than traditionally pasteurized milk, but it can also take on a cooked or burnt flavor. Research is still being done on how much the process compromises the milk's nutritional profile. Because the nature of the milk protein is changed at such high temperatures, ultrapasteurized cream can take longer to whip and never quite achieves the same light, fluffy texture. With either method, an opened carton will stay fresh for only about a week. For the nation's top organic milk producers, ultrapasteurizing has been a godsend. 'The availability of ultrapasteurization has allowed organic milk to enter markets it might not otherwise,' Ms. McLaughlin of Horizon said. At Organic Valley, where almost two-thirds of the milk is ultrapasteurized, its panels of tasters prefer it, Mr. Siemon said. But for purists, unpasteurized, or raw milk, is the only way to go. It can be delicious and more nutritious, but finding raw milk takes a lot of work. In most states it can be sold legally only on the farm or through clubs in which people buy shares of a cow and divide the milk. And raw milk can pose a health hazard, especially for people with weakened immune systems. In some parts of the country, finding organic milk is more work than some people are willing to put in. René Nuñez, a Los Angeles lawyer who does much of the shopping and cooking for his wife and two young children, has seen organic milk at Trader Joe's. But that store is a long drive from his house in Pasadena. 'We just shop at your regular supermarket down the street and it's not there,' he said. Other milk shoppers care only about price. At Pathmark, a half-gallon of regular milk was $1.70. The same size of Horizon Organic milk was $4.29. Organic milk is so expensive that most state governments consider it a luxury item and will not pay for it under low-income food programs like the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children. Ann Lickteig, a mother of four in Burlington, Vt., stopped buying organic milk when it reached nearly $5 a gallon. Now she goes to a local store on Mondays, when milk from a local dairy is on sale for $2.99 a gallon. 'I buy the milk that says no growth hormones, but I don't know that that's the only thing to worry about,' she said. 'I don't want my kids exposed to potentially harmful chemicals, but I haven't done the research myself.' For some parents, cost does not matter. Nor do the intricacies of the organic pasture rules. They search for the organic label and buy it, no matter what. 'I look at what I pay for everything else, but I don't for the milk,' said Ms. Gersten, the Long Island dentist. 'Buying any other milk for him is just not an option.'

Subject: Shopping From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 05:56:24 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The secret to shopping at Whole Foods is to look carefally to the store brand, the '365' brand. The quality is excellent and price is as low as any supermarket. Also, look to other well prices brands such as 'Kashi.' Kashi cereals are can be amazing in nutritional quality; 'Go Lite' are best for nutrition. Notice that Whole Foods brand organic breads have far more nutritional value than regular breads, especially fiber and protein. Organic breads may be a little more expensive, but the nutritional content is worth the spending. I never however buy any food that lacks a full nutritional label. Look for fiber, protein, and low fat.

Subject: A Disgraceful Signal at Amtrak From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 05:47:33 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/10/opinion/10thur4.html November 10, 2005 A Disgraceful Signal at Amtrak The sudden firing by the Amtrak board of David Gunn, the best president in years of the nation's only passenger railroad, was a body blow to anybody who cares about long-range passenger trains. Mr. Gunn has done a masterly job in the last three years of holding down costs without dismantling the railroad. That, apparently, was his problem. Mr. Gunn was trying to save Amtrak, but the Bush administration wants to privatize it, bit by bit. The battle between Mr. Gunn and Amtrak board members - all of them appointed by President Bush - intensified in recent weeks when the board took steps to break off the more profitable Northeast Corridor, putting it into its own division and sharing its control and costs with the states. Senator Frank Lautenberg, Democrat of New Jersey, called it a 'fire sale' intended to break up the nation's railroad system. So last week Senator Lautenberg and Senator Trent Lott, Republican of Mississippi, managed to get a 93-to-6 vote to authorize $11.6 billion for passenger rail service in the next six years - as close to an all-out endorsement of Amtrak as you can get. But while senators were trying to help Amtrak move forward, its board took a step backward. It complained yesterday that Mr. Gunn - who has greatly increased ridership, improved management and upgraded equipment - was moving too slowly. After his firing, Mr. Gunn said, 'Obviously what their goal is, and it's been their goal from the beginning, is to liquidate the company.' For Amtrak's 25 million passengers, this should be a call to arms. Amtrak should be a public transportation trust. It will never be self-sufficient, nor show a conventional profit, any more than the airline industry can fly without federal help. The Bush administration long ago threatened to disassemble Amtrak. Yesterday it began at the executive suite.

Subject: Shopping From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 20:11:28 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I cannot get enough of Whole Foods. I love that store and marvel at how fortunate we are every time I wander through the produce sections. And, as far as I can tell there really are lots and lots of happy shoppers about from any number of possible backgrounds. I am a happy and grateful shopper. Ah, Trader Joe's.... Hmmm...

Subject: Publix and Walmart From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 20:58:24 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I have shopped both. Recently both had very good tasting black seedless grapes. The most recent batch I bought at both were very bland, nowhere near the previous quality - I complained to the managers at both stores. Persimmons - same problem. Oranges - same problem. Bland - taste is lacking. Am forced to go to higher price places like whole foods now if I want the great tasting oranges and black grapes that I used to find at publix and walmart. The pineapples still seem to have the same rich flavor at publix and walmart though.

Subject: Re: Publix and Walmart From: Emma To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 19:15:42 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Eat lots of fruit.

Subject: The US consumer in the near future From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 19:54:13 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Danielle DiMartino: A firm forecast for slower spending 08:07 AM CST on Tuesday, November 8, 2005 The consumer spending party has been going on so long that few will dare suggest it might end. Merrill Lynch chief economist David Rosenberg does. He starts with the basics: While 80 percent of household debt is locked in, interest expense on the other 20 percent rises with every Federal Reserve meeting. We're not talking small potatoes here. Try $2.3 trillion – that's the amount of floating consumer debt held by American households, including real estate. Meanwhile, mandates to double minimum credit card payments will be enforced come December, and the Federal Reserve has urged lenders to toughen credit-score requirements. Surely there's more where that came from. In California, mortgage defaults rose in the third quarter for the first time in more than three years. As the default data get uglier, regulators will slam the door on toxic mortgages. And tougher bankruptcy laws are sending consumers the same message: 'The credit spigots are gradually being turned off,' Mr. Rosenberg said. The new reality The economy will reflect the impact immediately. 'The most unique characteristic of this cycle was households' ability to use the rising price of their home to fuel current consumption,' Mr. Rosenberg added. In the 1990s, the wealth effect was psychological – it simply made people feel richer. As home prices soared, people monetized that feeling at their local lender. The rub is, you can't extract cash from an asset whose value is not rising. That's the new reality facing today's homeowners. Luckily, Mr. Rosenberg said, he's not alone in predicting that many factors will converge to slow consumer spending. He's joined both by the data and a maverick Federal Reserve president. The support First, the data. A record 54 percent of household disposable income is now being absorbed by food, energy, health care and interest expenses. And, adjusted for inflation, consumer spending declined in both August and September and is likely to be negative for the fourth quarter. Next, the maverick. New York Fed President Timothy Geithner would tell you he's not surprised. Consider this from an Oct. 19 speech: 'The average household ... has a higher level of debt to income and is somewhat more exposed to interest rate risk than in the past.' But those weren't the words Mr. Rosenberg zeroed in on. Mr. Geithner boldly proclaimed that for the U.S. economy to come back into balance, it will first have to withstand a 'necessary slowing in U.S. domestic demand.' Wall Street's unwavering belief in the infallibility of the U.S. consumer could come down to something more elementary than stubborn conviction. 'A lot of folks running money today were in middle school back then,' Mr. Rosenberg quipped.

Subject: The Dollar From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 19:20:20 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There is no trouble for the dollar or Treasuries, not that there would be trouble if the dollar declined against the Euro and Yen and selected other currencies. The dollar is extremely strong against every significant currency in the world. Only Brazil's currency is stronger, and that will only harm Brazil. The dollar could easily lose 20% of its value against the Euro with no problem at all since we would gain in trade. But, the dollar is indeed at several year highs against the Euro and Yen. Trouble? Tomorrow, but not not not today.

Subject: Re: The Dollar From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 19:51:15 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Been grocery shopping lately Emma?

Subject: Trouble for the dollar & housing From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 18:03:59 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Treasuries Fall as Foreign Demand at $13 Billion Auction Falls Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries tumbled as demand from international investors, who own about half of all U.S. government debt, declined at the second bond auction by the Treasury this week. The 10-year note fell the most in two weeks. Bidders including foreign central banks bought 21.1 percent of the $13 billion in five-year notes, down from 45.8 percent last month, the Treasury said. The government's last debt sale this week is a $13 billion offering of 10-year notes tomorrow. ``The foreign bid was a disappointment,'' said Alan De Rose, a trader and Treasury market strategist at CIBC World Markets Corp. in New York, one of the 22 primary U.S. government securities dealers that are obligated to bid at the auctions. ``There will be plenty of pressure on the market'' because of the results of the auction, he said. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 4.64 percent at 5:15 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The decline is the most since Oct. 25. The yield, which moves inversely to the note's price, is within 5 basis points of this year's high reached in March. The price of the 4 1/4 percent note due August 2015 fell 5/8, or $6.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 97. The drop wiped out most all of the rally the past two days, which pushed 10-year yields down 11 basis points. Since the Treasury started releasing such figures in May 2003, the share of five-year note sales won by indirect bidders has ranged from 14 percent to 65.8 percent, and averaged 39.2 percent. Foreign investors owned $2.06 trillion of U.S. marketable securities outstanding as of August, up from $1.17 trillion, or less than 40 percent, three years ago, according to the Treasury. `Bearish Sentiment' ``There is a very large bearish sentiment right now that's gotten bigger over the past few weeks,'' said Bulent Baygun, head of U.S. fixed income research and strategy at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``We have already seen five- and 10-year rates above these levels. There's room for cheapening, even in the absence of any new economic information.'' Barclays, which is another primary dealer, expects the 10- year note's yield will rise to 4.75 percent by the end of March. Investors have pushed yields higher the past two months on the view the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates to keep inflation from spreading beyond energy prices. The central bank lifted its target for the overnight lending rate between banks at each of its past 12 meetings, to 4 percent, and interest-rate futures show traders expect increases at the next two meetings. Kraft Foods Inc., the largest U.S. foodmaker, and Kimberly- Clark Corp., the largest maker of diapers, said they are boosting prices to recover higher costs for raw materials and energy. Kraft increased the price of Oscar Mayer cold cuts and Jell-O refrigerated puddings by 3.9 percent. Kimberly-Clark will charge 6 percent more for Scott and Cottonelle toilet tissue and napkins, Viva paper towels and Huggies wipes in February. Auction Results The five-year notes were sold at a yield of 4.525 percent, compared with the 4.518 percent pre-auction average estimate of seven bond-trading firms surveyed by Bloomberg News. It was the highest auction yield since August 2001. Five-year yields touched 4.57 percent on Nov. 4, the highest since May 2002. For every $1 sold, there were $2.61 worth of bids, compared with $2.75 worth at the last five-year sale on Oct. 12. For the past 12 auctions, the bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered for sale, averaged $2.55. Indirect bidder participation in the auction of $18 billion in three-year notes yesterday was also ``less than stellar,'' Barclays interest-rate strategists wrote in a report today. The group bought 29.9 percent of the securities, compared with 28 percent in August and below the average of 36.8 percent since quarterly three-year note sales resumed in May 2003. Investors who bought at yesterday's auction have lost 0.1 percent, or $10,000 per $10,000,000, according to Bloomberg calculations. Some Value Some strategists see value in yields near the highest levels of the year. Ten-year notes yield 1.11 percentage points more than German bunds, compared with the average over the past five years of 0.18 percentage point. ``We've advised clients to buy bonds at these levels,'' said Oliver Mangan, chief bond economist in Dublin at AIB Capital Markets, a unit of Ireland's second-biggest bank. ``Ten-year yields are good value now.'' Economists have boosted forecasts for how high the 10-year note's yield will rise in the coming months. The yield will reach 4.65 percent by the end of the year, according to the median forecast of 63 economists polled by Bloomberg from Oct. 31 to Nov. 8. A month earlier, the median forecast was 4.50 percent. The median estimate for the Fed's target rate in mid-2006 was 4.75 percent, up from 4.50 percent in the prior survey. A government report today showed sales at U.S. wholesalers rose by the most in more than a year, suggesting companies may need to step up production to meet rising demand. Sales surged 2.4 percent in September, the most since March 2004, while inventories increased only 0.6 percent. The amount of Treasuries traded today through ICAP Plc, the world's largest interbank broker, was $262.6 billion, compared with a three-month daily average of $225.6 billion.

Subject: Schwarzenegger Dealt a Stinging Rebuke From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 13:01:23 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/national/09cnd-ballot.html November 9, 2005 Schwarzenegger Is Dealt a Stinging Rebuke by Voters By JOHN M. BRODER LOS ANGELES - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was dealt a stinging rebuke on Tuesday by voters who rejected all four special election ballot initiatives that were the basis of his efforts to change the balance of power in Sacramento. Voters turned down an initiative to cap state spending and grant sweeping new budget powers to the governor and a plan to transfer the power to draw legislative districts from the Legislature, which is controlled by Democrats, to a panel of retired judges also appeared to be failing. They also rejected Schwarzenegger-backed proposals to make it more difficult for public school teachers to win tenure and to force unions to get members' written permission before using their dues for political campaigns. After the costliest ballot campaign in state history it was clear that the once highly popular movie-star-turned-governor had been politically humbled. Californians also voted down four other ballot proposals that were not part of the Schwarzenegger agenda. They involved parental notification of teenagers seeking abortions, a plan to impose new regulations on electric utilities, and competing proposals for prescription drug discounts. Mr. Schwarzenegger staked his time, his prestige and several million dollars of his personal fortune on the ballot campaign that he said was needed to fix a dysfunctional political system. The governor must now return to Sacramento and try to re-establish ties with Democratic leaders in the Legislature with whom he has been engaged in a bitter election campaign lasting for months. Mr. Schwarzenegger appeared before all the results were in Tuesday evening and while not conceding defeat, he said he would meet on Thursday with Democrats and try to find new solutions to the state's political and economic problems. 'There is much, much work that has to be done,' he said. Mr. Schwarzenegger campaigned tirelessly for his ballot initiatives, particularly Proposition 76, which would give the governor power to unilaterally cut spending when revenues did not meet projections, and Proposition 77, a redistricting plan intended to break the hammerlock Democrats have had for a decade on the California Legislature and its Congressional delegation. Both initiatives were losing by substantial margins with half the vote counted and The Associated Press declared that both had been defeated. Two other proposals he supported, 74 and 75, would extend the probationary period for new public school teachers to five years from two years, and would force unions to seek written permission from members before their dues could be used for political campaigns. Three other initiatives on the California ballot - two measures on drug discounts and a plan to impose new regulations on electric utilities - all failed by sizeable margins. The governor's popularity has slumped in recent months because of his own political missteps and as a relentless barrage of critical political advertisements filling the airwaves. Mr. Schwarzenegger has said he intends to seek re-election next November. In Ohio, voters soundly rejected a package of election revision measures pushed by Democrats after President Bush's narrow and disputed re-election victory in the state last year. The four failed measures, backed by labor unions, government reform organizations and the Internet-fueled activist group MoveOn.org, would have stripped the secretary of state's office of the authority to conduct elections and made it much easier to vote absentee up to a month before Election Day. The package also included strict new limits on campaign contributions and the creation of an independent panel to redraw legislative districts. Also on Tuesday, voters in Texas resoundingly approved a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, making Texas the 19th state to outlaw the practice. Voters in Maine ratified a state law barring discrimination against gay men and lesbians. Matt Foreman, executive director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, said leaders of the gay rights movement were not surprised by the Texas outcome but were pleased by the result in Maine. 'This is a much-needed win for a national movement,' Mr. Foreman said, 'because we have experienced so many losses at the polls over the last year.' The Ohio initiatives were among the most closely watched of 39 ballot measures in seven states, an unusually high number in an off-year election. The measures were put on the ballot in response to last year's presidential election, which some Democrats charged was tainted by partisan mismanagement. They put particular blame on Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, a Republican, who is the state's top election official and was the Ohio chairman of the Bush re-election campaign. Critics said that many Democrats had to wait in hours-long lines at polling places and that many were denied ballots because they allegedly did not meet residency requirements. Critics also said that many absentee ballots from Democratic precincts were never counted. No fraud was ever proved, but the election provoked demands for major electoral revisions. The Ohio plan would have disbanded the current redistricting commission and created a bipartisan panel. The current system is dominated by Republicans, who have drawn the boundaries to maintain their majorities in the General Assembly and in the Congressional delegation. The law would have required the panel to make districts as competitive as possible. Mr. Schwarzenegger endorsed the Ohio redistricting measure, which would have benefited Democrats, as well as a similar plan in California designed to make Republicans more competitive. Keary McCarthy, a spokesman for Reform Ohio Now, the group behind the four initiatives, said that voters might have rejected the measures because they were confused by them. The national Republican Party and business interests ran a well-financed campaign to defeat them, Mr. McCarthy said. 'This became a national campaign,' he said. 'If we did anything tonight, these issues are now in the public consciousness.'

Subject: A new article by B. DeLong From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 07:51:00 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: For Whom America’s Bell Tolls By J. Bradford DeLong These days the Chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, Ben Bernanke, likes to talk about a “global savings glut” that has produced astonishingly low real interest rates around the world. But that is the wrong way to look at it. America certainly does not have a savings glut. Its savings rate has been distressingly low for decades. Then the Bush administration’s reckless fiscal policy pushed it lower. Falling interest rates in recent years pushed up real estate prices and allowed America’s upper middle class to treat their houses as enormous ATM’s, lowering savings still more. America has a savings deficiency, not a glut. And the rest of the world? A global savings glut would suggest that rebalancing the world economy requires policies to boost America’s savings rate and to increase non-US households’ consumption. But what the world economy is facing is not a savings glut, but an investment deficiency. Divide the world into three zones: the United States, China, and all the rest. Since the mid-1990’s, the net current-account surplus of “all the rest” has risen by an amount that one Federal Reserve Bank economist has put at $450 billion a year, not because savings rates have increased, but because investment rates have fallen. Declining investment rates in Japan, the newly-industrializing Asian economies, and Latin America, in that order of importance, have fueled the flood of savings into US government bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, and US equity-backed loans – the capital-account equivalent of America’s enormous trade deficit. The investment deficiency in Asia relative to rates of a decade ago amounts to an annual shortfall of $400 billion a year, with the decline in investment in Japan – a consequence of more than a decade of economic stagnation ­– accounting for more than half of the total. Moreover, investment rates in the newly industrialized economies of Asia have never recovered to their pre-1997-8 crisis levels, and investment rates in the rest of Asia outside China have fallen off as well. This would seem to call for a very different set of policies to rebalance the world economy. Yes, the US needs tax increases to move the federal budget into surplus and policies to boost private savings. But the world also needs policies to boost investment in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. And here we face a difficulty. People like me who have been cheerleaders for international integration in trade and finance, as well as for reductions in tariffs and other barriers, have cited three benefits: · Maximizing economic – and also social and cultural – contact between rich and poor nations is the best way we can think of to aid the flow of knowledge about technology and organization, which is the last best hope for rapid world development. · Lower trade barriers will make locating production in the poor low-wage parts of the world irresistible to those who have access to finance. · Freer capital flows will give poor countries precisely this access, as the greed of investors in rich country leads them to venture into poor regions where capital is scarce. The first reason still holds true. Maximizing economic, social, and cultural contact between rich and poor remains both the best way to aid the flow of knowledge and the last best hope for rapid world development. But the second and third reasons look shaky. Those with access to finance appear to be capable of resisting the urge to locate production in poor low-wage parts of the world (China aside). Rather than leading rich-country savers to invest their money in poor countries out of greed, liberalization of capital flows has led poor-country savers to park their money in rich countries out of fear – fear of political instability, macreconomic disturbances, and deficient institutions (especially those that protect the rights of bondholders and minority shareholders). Something may well happen in the next several years to radically boost America’s savings rate by making US households feel suddenly poor: tax increases, a real estate crash, rapidly-rising import prices caused by a plummeting dollar, a deep recession, or more than one of the above. It would be nice to believe that when the tide of dollar-denominated securities ebbs, the flows of finance currently directed at America will smoothly shift course and boost investment in Asia. But don’t count on it, especially considering the share of marginal investment in Asia that is aimed, one way or another, at exporting to the American market. Those outside America, especially in Asia, should regard the unstable state of the US macro-economy with grave concern. As the seventeenth-century poet John Donne put it, “Ask not for whom the bell tolls – it tolls for thee.” J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley, was Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton administration. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2005. www.project-syndicate.org http://www.project-syndicate.org/print_commentary/delong41/English

Subject: Re: A new article by B. DeLong From: Terri To: Yann Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 14:28:12 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Yann, I cannot find a date for the essay. Can you? The essay is nicely written and presents the problem of savings going to a more developed country rather than less developed countries, but beyond this I am not sure how to respond. China strikes me as having an ample level of saving and investment for continued rapid development. India, as well, though saving availability is not quite that of China. Japan looks to be recovering well at last, and will not lack investment funds as recovery proceeds. The problem then is elsewhere in Asia, Latin America and Africa. How should the flow of saving to America, however, be a worry for us, speaking selfishly? No; I find no cause for concern in this essay, at least not for now.

Subject: Re: A new article by B. DeLong From: Yann To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 02:29:42 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Terri, The date: Oct.2005 The main link: http://www.project-syndicate.org/series/2/description

Subject: Re: A new article by B. DeLong From: David E.. To: Terri Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 23:06:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: It seems clear from Brad DeLong's analysis one major reason why everyone invests in the United States is that folks feel their money will be safer. So this is good for the United States if money is safer here. If we are unable to pay and their money was not actually safer here this will be bad for the United States. Because the moment the perception changes - there is a danger that there would be a run on the bank. So the question is - is the money safe, can the United States keep the perception of safety? I think this will be a difficult challenge, the United States has $43 Trillion present value of off the books debt, and $7-8 trillion of government debt backed by government notes. What if at the same time the baby boomers are collecting their social security and medicare benefits the chinese economy reaches a size where it looks like a typical developing country and no longer has excess savings. At that point demand for the US dollar could drop like a rock and the run on the bank will start. I am very uneasy, I know that a household that spends more on current expenses than its income will fail. Governments might be different, but I can't imagine how. The exception, Terri, could be that we are investing the current account deficit and are creating a more productive America. But it looks to me like the CA deficit is just covering expenses, not investment. What do you think? Do you know the productive investment that America is making? If not, this is a situation that can't go on forever. I enjoy reading your opinions and am pursuing this just to get more understanding. Thank you Terri.

Subject: Re: A new article by B. DeLong From: Terri To: David E.. Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 11:07:14 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thanks Yann and David, I adore Brad DeLong and am only thinking about how to contextualize or argue with this fine essay.

Subject: Re: A new article by B. DeLong From: Terri To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 10, 2005 at 14:48:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: David, keep asking questions. Whether I can answer or not is of less interest to me than having to think in new ways. The more friendly arguments, the better.

Subject: Terri - care to rebut this?n/m From: David E.. To: Yann Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 11:58:35 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: ??

Subject: Builder Sees Slower Home Sales From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 07:21:05 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/business/09housing.html November 9, 2005 Big Builder Sees Slower Home Sales By VIKAS BAJAJ and DAVID LEONHARDT The nation's largest maker of luxury homes, Toll Brothers, said yesterday that soaring home prices appeared to have ended. It was the latest sign that many real estate markets are slowing. Although the company said it expected to report a record profit for the last 12 months, it predicted that it would sell fewer homes over the next year than it had forecast and would make less money than previously anticipated. High gas prices and the recent hurricanes seem to have rattled consumers, causing some to delay purchases of houses, company executives said. Also, some local governments appear to be holding back on construction permits, to slow new building. Shares of Toll Brothers fell after yesterday's announcement and ended the day down 14 percent, at $33.91. The news dragged the shares of other home builders lower, and the Bloomberg United States home builders index fell 7 percent yesterday. 'The price increases pre-Katrina were at warp speed, and since Katrina, instead of going up $5,000 or $10,000 every week or two, we have been limited to no price increases or very limited price increases,' Robert I. Toll, the company's chief executive, said in a conference call yesterday. The number of investors buying condominiums and houses in the hope of turning a quick profit also seems to have plunged, he said in an interview last week. 'The true speculator is gone from the market,' Mr. Toll said. Certain markets appear to be losing steam faster than others, Mr. Toll said. Washington, Chicago and Northern California were slowing from high levels of activity, while Boston, Denver and the west coast of Florida were still hot markets for the company. Las Vegas, which has experienced a huge condo building boom, slowed down 'ever so slightly' in July and appears to be staying at that level, he added. The company, whose homes sell at an average price of $679,000 and whose typical buyer has an annual family income of more than $100,000, emphasized that it still expected a happy ending for the long housing boom. Home prices, the company said, are expected to continue rising, but at historical averages and not at the rapid rates that they have recently in the Northeast and California. Since 1964, new-home prices have risen an average of 6 percent a year, according to the Commerce Department. Last year, they rose 13 percent. Even with its reduced forecast, Toll Brothers expects to sell 7 percent more homes in its current fiscal year, which began Nov. 1, than it did in the previous year. Last year, the company's revenue rose 50 percent, to $5.8 billion, according to preliminary figures released yesterday. The company will disclose detailed financial results and projections for 2006 on Dec. 8. In many of the nation's hottest real estate markets, houses are taking much longer to sell than they once did, and some agents are talking about a slowdown in attendance at open houses. In September, there was a 4.7-month supply of already- built homes on the market, up from 4.2 months a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Mr. Toll said last week that in some markets, the company was starting to offer incentives like a luxury kitchen at no extra cost to the buyer. J. Patrick Lashinsky, a senior vice president at ZipRealty, a brokerage firm with offices in 15 metropolitan areas, said, 'In a lot of our markets, we're seeing inventory levels up 20, 30, 40 percent from a few months ago.' Some of the biggest increases were in the Phoenix, San Diego and San Francisco areas, he said, and the number of houses for sale had also risen in Atlanta, Boston and Chicago. For the moment, at least, prices have stopped their steep climb, with some owners reducing asking prices to attract buyers. Average sale prices traditionally drop in autumn, because home purchases slow then, but the decline appears to have been steeper than usual this year. Between August and September, the median sales price of already-built homes dropped 3.6 percent nationwide, to $212,000. During the same period last year, prices fell 1.6 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price for new homes fell 5.7 percent, to $215,700, from August to September, according to the Commerce Department. That compares with a 3 percent drop a year ago. Richard A. Smith, chairman and chief executive of Cendant's real estate business, said he, too, expected a slowing in the housing market next year, but that 2006 would still be one of the strongest years on record for home sales. 'The problem with forecasting this time of the year is, if you look at the seasonality of the business, this is always the slowest time of the year,' Mr. Smith said. The slowdown appears to be linked to a steady rise in mortgage rates in recent months. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages was 6.31 percent last week, up from 6.15 percent the week before and 5.77 at the start of the year, according to Freddie Mac. Even with the increases, the rates are still below historical averages. Loan applications for purchases and refinancing fell 4.8 percent in the last week of October and were 15.2 percent lower than the same week last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. Loans for purchases fell 6.2 percent for the week and 11.9 percent from a year ago. Some economists argue that the recent softening might be the beginning of a more severe downturn. Neither income nor population has grown quickly enough to justify the doubling of prices in some areas since 2000, these economists say. They add that rents have risen much less than home prices. 'There is a large psychological element behind current housing prices,' said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy Research in Washington. 'People are willing to pay them because there is an expectation that prices will continue to rise. Once people don't have that expectation, things will change.' Even many analysts who are not so pessimistic say the recent increases cannot continue. 'Home prices have been growing so fast for so long, outstripping income growth for many years,' said Gene Huang, the chief economist of FedEx, who keeps an eye on home prices as an overall gauge of the economy's health. 'Some kind of adjustment has to happen.' Per capita disposable income grew 3.6 percent over the last year, according to the Commerce Department. More than four out of five economic forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators said they expected existing-home price growth to slow to 5 percent by the end of 2006, from 13 percent over the last 12 months. 'All of a sudden, the ads in the paper show special mortgage deals, special incentives,' Mr. Toll said last week, referring to new housing developments nationally. 'That's an absolute indicator that the market has softened.' Mr. Toll also attributed his company's new sales forecast to toughening local regulations, saying governments in many cities were delaying new projects to placate existing residents who want slower growth. 'We are building in pretty well-established territory which means it's also pretty well regulated,' he said on the conference call. 'We have a heavier-hitting average population, and their desire is 'Not in my backyard, please slow it down.' '

Subject: Fascination in Things Unseen From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 07:14:38 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/science/08essay.html November 8, 2005 Science and Religion Share Fascination in Things Unseen By LAWRENCE M. KRAUSS Most of the current controversies associated with science revolve around the vastly different reactions people both within the scientific community and outside it have, not to the strange features of the universe that we can observe for ourselves, but rather to those features we cannot observe. In my own field of physics, theorists hotly debate the possible existence of an underlying mathematical beauty associated with a host of new dimensions that may or may not exist in nature. School boards, legislatures and evangelists hotly debate the possible existence of an underlying purpose to nature that similarly may or may not exist. It seems that humans are hard-wired to yearn for new realms well beyond the reach of our senses into which we can escape, if only with our minds. It is possible that we need to rely on such possibilities or the world of our experience would become intolerable. Certainly science has, in the past century, validated the notion that what we see is far from all there is. We cannot directly see electrons but we now know that material objects we can hold in our hand are actually, at an atomic level, largely empty space, and that it is the electric fields associated with the electrons that keep them from falling through our hands. And when we peer into the darkness of the night sky, within the size of the spot covered up by a dime held at arm's length, we now know that over 100,000 galaxies more or less like our own are hiding. And we know most contain over 100 billion stars, many housing solar systems, and around some of them may exist intelligent life forms whose existence may, too, remain forever hidden from us. One hundred years ago, Albert Einstein began to unveil the hidden nature of space and time, and after working for another full decade he discovered that space itself is dynamic. It can curve and bend in response to matter and energy, and ultimately even the calm peace of the night sky, suggesting an eternal universe, is itself an illusion. Distant galaxies are being carried away by an expanding space, just as a swimmer at rest in the water can nevertheless get carried away from shore by a strong current. Thus, it is perhaps not too surprising that when one approaches the limits of our knowledge, theologians and scientists alike tend to appeal to new hidden universes for, respectively, either redemption or understanding. The apparent complexity of our universe has compelled some evangelists, and some school boards, to argue that the natural laws we have unraveled over the past four centuries cannot be enough on their own to explain the diversity of the phenomena we observe around us, including the remarkable diversity of life on earth. For very different reasons, but still without a shred of empirical evidence, a generation of theoretical physicists has speculated that the four dimensions of our experience may themselves be just a grand illusion - the tip of a cosmic iceberg. String theory, yet to have any real successes in explaining or predicting anything measurable, has nevertheless become a fixture in the public lexicon, and the elaborate and surprising mathematical framework that has resulted from over three decades of theoretical study has been enough for some to argue that even a thus-far empirically impotent idea must describe reality. Further, it has now been proposed that the extra dimensions of string theory may not even be microscopically small, which has been the long accepted mathematical trick used by advocates to explain why we may not yet detect them. Instead, they could be large enough to house entire other universes with potentially different laws of physics, and perhaps even objects that, like the eight-dimensional beings in a Buckaroo Banzai story, might leak into our own dimensions. I wouldn't bet on their existence, but the fact that such potentially infinite spaces could exist and still be effectively hidden in our world is nevertheless remarkable. Whatever one thinks about all of these ruminations about hidden realities, there is an important difference - at least I hope there is - between the scientists who currently speculate about extra dimensions and those whose beliefs cause them to insist that life can only be understood by going beyond the confines of the natural world. Scientists know that without experimental vindication their proposals are likely to wither. Moreover, a single definitive 'null experiment,' like the Michelson-Morley experiment in 1887 that dispensed with the long-sought-after ether, could sweep away the whole idea. Religious belief that the universe is the handiwork of an all-powerful being is not subject to refutation. This sort of reliance on faith may itself have an evolutionary basis. There has been talk of a 'god gene': the idea of an early advantage in the struggle for survival for those endowed with a belief in a hidden patrimony that gives order, purpose and meaning to the universe we experience. Does the same evolutionary predilection lead physicists and mathematicians to see beauty in the unobserved, or unobservable? Does the longstanding human love affair with extra dimensions reflect something fundamental about the way we think, rather than about the world in which we live? The mathematician Hermann Weyl was quoted as having said not long before he died, 'My work always tried to unite the true with the beautiful, but when I had to choose one or the other, I usually chose the beautiful.' Mathematicians, artists and writers may choose beauty over truth. Scientists can only hope that we do not have to make the choice. Lawrence M. Krauss is a professor of physics and astronomy at Case Western Reserve University.

Subject: Cobbled Florence Into Another Cow Town From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 06:14:39 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/arts/design/08flor.html November 8, 2005 Turning Cobbled Florence Into Another Cow Town By ELISABETTA POVOLEDO FLORENCE - Renaissance-era public art in this Medici stronghold gave the world Michelangelo's David and monumental sculptures by Donatello. These days, Florentines are sharing their cobbled streets with a colorful fiberglass herd that's part of CowParade, which is billed as the world's largest public-art event and has already stampeded through some two dozen cities around the globe. It's one thing to have life-size, mass-produced cow forms crowding the sidewalks in Houston, New York, or Manchester, England, but quite another in Florence, where there are churches by Brunelleschi as a backdrop, not to mention fiercely protective - and restrictive - art authorities. 'We were worried when we spoke to the art officials because this exhibit is extravagant,' said Giovanni Rimbotti, president of AgencyOne, the Italian entity set up to organize the event. 'But they took it in the right way, with a smile.' In other cities artists have had free rein in creating the cows, but in Florence the projects were carefully vetted by a committee, which selected 58 artists from more than 1,000 proposals. 'This is Florence; there had to be some control,' said Patrizia Asproni, the president of Confcultura, an organization that promotes Italy's cultural heritage. The decision to keep the herd small (compared with the 520 cows in New York and 156 in Manchester) also took Florence's size into consideration. It was a Swiss sculptor, Pascal Knapp, who turned the 130-pound fiberglass bovine into contemporary art. Since first appearing at a public art show in Zurich in 1998, Mr. Knapp's three models (standing, grazing and seated) have served as models for more than 5,000 artists in more than 20 cities. CowParade organizers don't claim to aspire to high art. The exhibitions are meant to be amusing rather than museological, relying on the crowd-pleasing appeal of their subject, with a good dose of whimsy thrown in. 'Cows are familiar, placid and comical, and that should be the leitmotif of the show,' said Simone Siliani, who heads Florence's culture department. Here, that's translated into pieces like Massimo Rossetti's 'Mucca Bruca Blister,' packaged with a user's guide in Italian, English and Japanese: 'check if every single piece of the cow are in the right place (should be as in the picture); ask for permission to milk'; and Luigi Fragoli and Fiona Corsini's 'Allumeuse,' a cow-turned-lamp that lights up at night. For the most part, Italians have been spared English-speakers' compulsion to play with puns in the titles, which birthed works like Picowsso, Moondrian and MooMa when CowParade hit Moo York in 2000. Most of the artists aren't well known, but that, organizers say, is part of the specialness of the event. 'CowParade isn't successful because the cows are made by famous artists but because the cows are 'simpatiche,' ' Mr. Rimbotti said. Even so, some organizers weren't very optimistic about how Florentines would respond to the project. 'It's a sleepy city, squashed by the weight of the Renaissance, from which it has a hard time emerging,' Ms. Asproni said. 'The city stopped in one era and has a hard time accepting anything new, like contemporary art.' Actually, tourists and Florentines seemed mostly amused by the bovines, which are already vying with the city's monuments for photographic immortalization. 'We can buy postcards of the monuments, but we're not going to get any images of these,' said Angela Rossi, a translator from a town on the Adriatic, explaining why she chose to photograph Julia Pircher's bright yellow cow, 'Miss Cheese Italy,' instead of the famed Romanesque baptistery a few yards away. 'It's not so ugly,' she said of the cow. CowParades have been successful enough around the world to generate their own merchandising bonanza (everything from calendars to snow globes) and credit cards. They are also touted as a big tourist draw for local businesses. That may not seem like a big priority for a city that drew an estimated nine million visitors last year, but Silvano Gori, the municipal commissioner for tourism, said he hoped the event would fill Florence during the slow winter season and broaden the city's appeal. 'This example may seem profane, but Florence needs a stimulus to attract a different public,' Mr. Gori said. Florence may benefit from the cows in another way. The exhibition coincides with the probable return to butcher shops of the Fiorentina, a Tuscan-style steak that disappeared from tables four years ago during the mad cow crisis, when beef that included part of the spinal cord was banned. Last month, European Union veterinary experts recommended lifting the ban, and Italian officials are hopeful that the Fiorentina will be back by Christmas. Florentine businesses have been slow to respond to the potential 30 percent retailing boost of the cows, said Alberto Ridi, a partner in AgencyOne. Of the 58 cows, only 26 were adopted, for prices ranging from about $9,600 to $12,000, a low percentage compared with that in other cities, he said. Mr. Rimbotti said it was 'really sad' that of these 26 only 8 were adopted by Tuscan companies. 'It tells you a lot about the city,' he said. Mr. Gori fine-tuned the observation. 'This is a city that isn't accustomed to participating,' he said. 'But if we lose this occasion it will be difficult for other organizers to propose something new for Florence.' At the end of the three-month run, some of the cows will be auctioned off and 70 percent of the proceeds will go to a local charity, the Meyer Children's Hospital, which has pledged the money to its art program. So far cow auctions around the world have netted charities around $24 million, Mr. Rimbotti said. Flora Vannetti, a Florentine graphic designer who created Moo Jeans, a bright green cow in blue jeans, said she had received good feedback about her piece, adding that only the auction would tell whether people actually liked it. But she isn't brooding too much about Florence's Renaissance greats. 'They were real artists,' she said. 'You can't compare this with Brunelleschi. I'm just a designer.'

Subject: Antibacterial Soap From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:59:13 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/health/08real.html November 8, 2005 Antibacterial Soap Works Better Than Regular Soap By ANAHAD O'CONNOR THE FACTS What happened to plain old soap? Studies show that more than 70 percent of liquid hand soaps sold are now labeled antibacterial, and Americans seem increasingly willing to pay a premium for them. But the truth is that most consumers may not always be getting what they think they are. Over the years, studies have repeatedly shown that antibacterial soaps are no better than plain old soap and water. One study, published in The Journal of Community Health in 2003, followed adults in 238 households in New York City for nearly a year. Month after month, the researchers found no difference in the number of microbes that turned up on the hands of people who used either antibacterial soap or regular soap. At least four other large studies have had similar findings. In fact, the only question now may be whether using antibacterial soaps can cause more harm than good by creating strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Last month, the Food and Drug Administration convened experts to discuss, among other things, whether antibacterial products should be more tightly regulated because of the potential risks they pose. THE BOTTOM LINE Studies show that antibacterial soap is no more effective than regular soap.

Subject: Get French or Die Trying From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:24:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/opinion/09roy.html November 9, 2005 Get French or Die Trying By OLIVIER ROY Paris THE rioting in Paris and other French cities has led to a lot of interpretations and comments, most of them irrelevant. Many see the violence as religiously motivated, the inevitable result of unchecked immigration from Muslim countries; for others the rioters are simply acting out of vengeance at being denied their cultural heritage or a fair share in French society. But the reality is that there is nothing particularly Muslim, or even French, about the violence. Rather, we are witnessing the temporary rising up of one small part of a Western underclass culture that reaches from Paris to London to Los Angeles and beyond. To understand why this is so, consider two solid facts we do have on the riots. First, this is a youth (and male) uprising. The rioters are generally 12 to 25 years old, and roughly half of those arrested are under 18. The adults keep away from the demonstrations: in fact, they are the first victims (it is their cars, after all, that are burning) and they want security and social services to be restored. Yet older residents also resent what they see as the unnecessary brutality of the police toward the rioters, the merry-go-round of officials making promises that they know will be quickly forgotten, and the demonization of their communities by the news media. Second, the riots are geographically and socially very circumscribed: all are occurring in about 100 suburbs, or more precisely destitute neighborhoods known here as 'cités,' 'quartiers' or 'banlieues.' There has long been a strong sense of territorial identity among the young people in these neighborhoods, who have tended to coalesce in loose gangs. The different gangs, often involved in petty delinquency, have typically been reluctant to stroll outside their territories and have vigilantly kept strangers away, be they rival gangs, police officers, firefighters or journalists. Now, these gangs are for the most part burning their own neighborhoods and seem little interested in extending the rampage to more fashionable areas. They express simmering anger fueled by unemployment and racism. The lesson, then, is that while these riots originate in areas largely populated by immigrants of Islamic heritage, they have little to do with the wrath of a Muslim community. France has a huge Muslim population living outside these neighborhoods - many of them, people who left them as soon as they could afford it - and they don't identify with the rioters at all. Even within the violent areas, one's local identity (sense of belonging to a particular neighborhood) prevails over larger ethnic and religious affiliation. Most of the rioters are from the second generation of immigrants, they have French citizenship, and they see themselves more as part of a modern Western urban subculture than of any Arab or African heritage. Just look at the newspaper photographs: the young men wear the same hooded sweatshirts, listen to similar music and use slang in the same way as their counterparts in Los Angeles or Washington. (It is no accident that in French-dubbed versions of Hollywood films, African-American characters usually speak with the accent heard in the Paris banlieues). Nobody should be surprised that efforts by the government to find 'community leaders' have had little success. There are no leaders in these areas for a very simple reason: there is no community in the neighborhoods. Traditional parental control has disappeared and many Muslim families are headed by a single parent. Elders, imams and social workers have lost control. Paradoxically, the youths themselves are often the providers of local social rules, based on aggressive manhood, control of the streets, defense of a territory. Americans (and critics of America in Europe) may see in these riots echoes of the black separatism that fueled the violence in Harlem and Watts in the 1960's. But the French youths are not fighting to be recognized as a minority group, either ethnic or religious; they want to be accepted as full citizens. They have believed in the French model (individual integration through citizenship) but feel cheated because of their social and economic exclusion. Hence they destroy what they see as the tools of failed social promotion: schools, social welfare offices, gymnasiums. Disappointment leads to nihilism. For many, fighting the police is some sort of a game, and a rite of passage. Contrary to the calls of many liberals, increased emphasis on multiculturalism and respect for other cultures in France is not the answer: this angry young population is highly deculturalized and individualized. There is no reference to Palestine or Iraq in these riots. Although these suburbs have been a recruiting field for jihadists, the fundamentalists are conspicuously absent from the violence. Muslim extremists don't share the youth agenda (from drug dealing to nightclub partying), and the youngsters reject any kind of leadership. So what is to be done? The politicians have offered the predictable: curfews, platitudes about respect, vague promises of economic aid. But with France having entered its presidential election cycle, any hope for long-term rethinking is misplaced. In the end, we are dealing here with problems found by any culture in which inequities and cultural differences come in conflict with high ideals. Americans, for their part, should take little pleasure in France's agony - the struggle to integrate an angry underclass is one shared across the Western world. Olivier Roy is a professor at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences,.

Subject: Down for the Count From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:14:15 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/science/08slee.html?ex=1289106000&en=37c05904a86f580d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 8, 2005 Down for the Count By CARL ZIMMER In a laboratory at Indiana State University, a dozen green iguanas sprawl tranquilly in terrariums. They while away the hours basking under their heat lamps, and at night they close both eyes - or sometimes just one. They lead comfortable lives pretty much indistinguishable from any ordinary pet iguana, except for one notable exception: the bundles of brain-wave recording wires that trail from their heads. A team of scientists at Indiana State would like to know what happens in the brains of the iguanas when the lights go out. Do they sleep as we do? Do they shut the whole brain down, for example, or can they keep one half awake? These scientists in Terre Haute hope the iguanas will also help shed some light on an even more fundamental question: why sleep even exists. 'Sleep has attracted a tremendous amount of attention in science, but we really don't know what sleep is,' said Steven Lima, a biologist at Indiana State. Dr. Lima belongs to a small but growing group of scientists who are pushing sleep research deep into the animal kingdom. They suspect that most animal species need to sleep, suggesting that human slumber has an evolutionary history reaching back over half a billion years. Today animals sleep in many different ways: brown bats for 20 hours a day, for example, and giraffes for less than 2. To understand why people sleep the way they do, scientists need an explanation powerful enough to encompass the millions of other species that sleep as well. 'One of the reasons we don't understand sleep is that we haven't taken this evolutionary perspective on it,' Dr. Lima said. Sleep was once considered unique to vertebrates, but in recent years scientists have found that invertebrates likes honeybees and crayfish sleep, as well. The most extensive work has been carried out on fruit flies. 'They rest for 10 hours a night, and if you keep them awake longer, they need to sleep more,' said Dr. Giulio Tononi, a psychiatrist at the University of Wisconsin. The parallels between fruit flies and humans extend even to their neurons. The two species produce, during part of the night, low-frequency electrical activity known as slow-wave sleep. 'The flies surprised us with how close they were in many ways,' Dr. Tononi said. Discovering sleep in vertebrates and invertebrates alike has led scientists to conclude that it emerged very early in animal evolution - perhaps 600 million years ago. 'What we're doing in sleeping is a very old evolutionary phenomenon,' Dr. Lima said. Scientists have offered a number of ideas about the primordial function of sleep. Dr. Tononi believes that it originally evolved as a way to allow neurons to recover from a hard day of learning. 'When you're awake you learn all the time, whether you know it or not,' he said. Learning strengthens some connections between neurons, known as synapses, and even forms new synapses. These synapses demand a lot of extra energy, though. 'That means that at the end of the day, you have a brain that costs you more energy,' Dr. Tononi said. 'That's where sleep would kick in.' He argues that slow waves weaken synapses through the night. 'If everything gets weaker, you still keep your memories, but overall the strength goes down,' he said. 'The next morning you gain in terms of energy and performance.' Dr. Tononi and his University of Wisconsin colleague, Dr. Chiara Cirelli, present this hypothesis in a paper to be published in the journal Sleep Medicine Reviews. Dr. Tononi believes it can be tested in the future, as scientists document sleep in other animal species. 'It would be a very basic thing that would apply to any brain that can change,' he said. It has been almost 600 million years since human ancestors diverged from those of flies. As those ancestors evolved, their sleep evolved as well. Human sleep, for example, features not only slow-wave sleep, but bouts of sleep when the eyes make rapid movements and when we dream. Rapid eye movement, or REM sleep, as it is known, generally comes later in the night, after periods of intense slow-wave sleep. Other mammals also experience a mix of REM and non-REM sleep, as do birds. Sleep researchers would like to know whether this pattern existed in the common ancestors of birds and mammals, reptilian animals that lived 310 million years ago. It is also possible that birds and mammals independently evolved this sleep pattern, just as birds and bats independently evolved wings. Answering that question may help scientists understand why REM sleep exists. Scientists have long debated its function, suggesting that it may play important roles in memory or learning. In the Oct. 27 issue of Nature, Jerome Siegel, a sleep expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, argues that REM does not play a vital physiological role like slow-wave sleep. He points out that brain injuries and even medications like antidepressants can drastically reduce REM without any apparent ill effect. 'People who don't have REM sleep are remarkably normal,' Dr. Siegel said. 'There's no evidence for any intellectual or emotional problems.' So why do mammals and birds have REM sleep at all? 'The best answer I can come up with is that it's there to prepare you for waking,' Dr. Siegel said. 'When the important work of sleep is done, REM sleep just makes you as alert as you can be while you're asleep.' One advantage to being alert but immobile is that you may be better able to escape a predator. Dr. Lima and his colleagues argue in the October issue of Animal Behavior that sleep may have been profoundly shaped during evolution by the constant threat of predators. From this perspective, it is strange that animals would spend hours each day in such a vulnerable state. 'It's so stinking dangerous to be shut down like that,' Dr. Lima said. It is possible to imagine an alternative way to let the brain recover: only put small parts of the brain to sleep at a time. But Dr. Lima and his colleagues present a mathematical model suggesting that shutting down the whole brain at once may actually be safer. 'You may be better off just shutting down and sleeping all at once, and do it quickly,' Dr. Lima said. 'Even though you're fairly vulnerable while you're asleep, your overall vulnerability in a 24-hour period may be lower.' Birds appear to be able to defend against predators with a variation on this strategy. When they feel safe, they sleep with their entire brains shut down, as humans do. But when they sense threats, they keep half their brains awake. Dr. Lima and his colleagues have demonstrated this strategy in action with several bird species, including ducks. 'All we did was put our ducks in a row, quite literally,' said Niels Rattenborg, a colleague of Dr. Lima's, now at the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology in Germany. 'The ducks on the interior slept more with both eyes closed, and the ducks on the edge slept with one eye open. And they used the eye that was facing away from the other birds.' To give each side of the brain enough rest, the ducks at the ends of the row would stand up from time to time, turn around and sit down again. This allowed them to switch eyes and let the waking half of the brain go to sleep. The Indiana State team is now studying iguanas to see if they sleep with half their brains, as well. Previous studies have shown that lizards keep one eye closed for long periods of time, but it has not been clear if they have also been half asleep. Monitoring iguana brains with electrodes may give the scientists an answer. If reptiles and birds turn out to sleep this way, it may be evidence that it is an ancient strategy. It is even possible that the earliest mammals also slept with half a brain. 'It's possible that early on in mammal evolution they may have lost it for some reason,' Dr. Rattenborg speculated. 'It may have conflicted with other functions.' On the other hand, some species of whales and seals sometimes swim with one eye closed while the corresponding hemisphere of the brain produces slow waves. Scientists are still debating whether they are actually asleep in this state. If they are, that suggests that the ancestors of marine mammals reinvented half-brain sleeping. It may have re-emerged as an adaptation to life in the ocean, an environment where predators can come out of nowhere. While humans and other land mammals may not be able to shut down half the brain, they may be able to cope with predators by adjusting their sleep schedules. Some studies on rats suggest that predators cause the animals to cut back on slow-wave sleep. People often react to stress in the same way. 'Some of the changes we observe in people who are experiencing stress may be some of the same mechanisms in response to predators,' Dr. Rattenborg said. 'There are no lions sneaking up on them, but the daily stresses of our lives may activate this primordial response.' Dr. Tononi believes that studying animals may ultimately help doctors find more effective ways to treat such sleep disorders. 'There are no good guidelines about what is satisfactory sleep, because there is no idea of what it does,' he said. 'Is seven hours of very light sleep O.K.? Or is deep sleep very important, or REM?' He added: 'It might really be that you can do with less sleep as long as it's doing its job. That's why it's crucial to know what its job is.'

Subject: Bats and the Dark From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:12:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/science/08qna.html November 8, 2005 Bats and the Dark By C. CLAIBORNE RAY Q. Why are there no daytime bats? Echolocation may give bats a nighttime feeding advantage, but there are fruit bats that do not use echolocation and still feed at night. Why? A. There are some bats that are active at least part of the time in daylight, but most are nocturnal or crepuscular, that is, night creatures or denizens of the twilight. There are at least two theories about how this adaptation evolved, involving the benefits of reduced competition for food at night and avoiding the diurnal animals that are the bats' own predators. Natural enemies of bats include snakes, owls, falcons and an Asian bird called the bat hawk. Some Jamaican fruit bats even avoid bright moonlight, when owls may also be on the wing. Most bats spend the daytime hanging in clusters in trees or caves, inconspicuous and out of the way of birds of prey. There are two major groups in the bat order, Chiroptera. The smaller ones, called microchiropterans, navigate and pursue nocturnal insects with their familiar sonarlike echolocation, squeaks that echo off other bodies.

Subject: To Save Endangered Butterfly From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:10:30 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/science/earth/08monarch.html?ex=1289106000&en=6293ec243b862a4a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 8, 2005 To Save Endangered Butterfly, Become a Butterfly By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr. LLANO DE LAS PAPAS, Mexico - Francisco Gutiérrez has trouble expressing precisely when the idea came to him. It was six years ago and it crept up on him like the dawn, a connection between himself and the monarch butterfly. As an expert hang glider and ultralight pilot from the mountains where the monarchs winter, he felt a strange kinship with them, and the notion of flying with them on their yearly migration from Canada to Mexico became first an itch, then an obsession, his family members said. So when Mr. Gutiérrez wheeled his ultralight plane painted like a monarch over the butterfly sanctuary here at noon on Thursday and brought it swooping in to land on a stretch of mountain highway, it marked the rarest of human experiences, a dream come true. He had traveled more than 4,375 miles from Montreal to Michoacán State, following the butterflies at low altitude. He logged more than 90 hours of flying over 72 days, averaging about 60 miles a day, stopping dozens of times to talk to scientists and butterfly fanatics, in a feat of aviation meant to call attention to the insect's precarious situation. 'Sometimes I felt like a butterfly, not a man,' said the curly-haired, blue-eyed Mr. Gutiérrez, who is known as Vico. 'I can now feel what they face in some of the different parts of the Canada, the United States and Mexico.' The first waves of butterflies were fluttering into the dense fir forests here as Mr. Gutiérrez landed to a hero's welcome from two governors, representatives of the United States and Canadian governments, several government officials, dozens of school children dressed as butterflies, native American dancers and a Mazahua Indian chief. The chief, Margarito Sánchez Valdez, bathed the aviator in incense, wreathed his neck with marigolds and blessed him in the name of Shefi, a butterfly spirit, and Mysyohimi, the Mazahua's supreme deity. Omar Vidal, the director of the Mexico office of the World Wildlife Fund, acknowledged that the flight was a publicity stunt, but one with the best intention: to call attention to the plight of the monarchs. Illegal logging continues to eat away at the preserves where the butterfly winters. Pesticides in the United States and Canada wipe out the milkweed on which the insect feeds and lays its eggs. Hard winters that some scientists believe are linked to climate changes caused by greenhouse gases have decimated the butterflies in Mexico. The monarch's annual migration is a natural mystery. In August, as the days shorten, the butterflies go into sexual hibernation. Then they fly down to Mexico, returning always to the same forested hills in Michoacán, where they find the perfect balance of coolness and humidity to remain alive for several months. Finally, in March, they return to the southern United States, lay their eggs and die. Their offspring then wend their way northward with the sun, going through a number of generations during the summer, until the last generation senses a hint of winter in the air in August and begins the long return to Mexico. 'The first and still the most important end of the flight was to call attention and raise the awareness of all people about the marvel of this migration,' Mr. Vidal said. 'It's a unique phenomenon in the insect world.' After six years of trying, Mr. Gutiérrez, who is 44, had almost given up finding sponsors for his project, except for the World Wildlife Fund. Then in June, Gov. Lázaro Cárdenas Batel of Michoacán suddenly decided to back the idea. Mexico's telephone giant, Telcel, also donated some money. One of the high points of the flight came early on Sept. 6, when Mr. Gutiérrez flew his ultralight, Papalotzin, an indigenous word for the monarch, over Niagara Falls with a cloud of butterflies beneath him. Mr. Gutiérrez said the butterflies fly much like gliders, using updrafts to climb to between 4,500 and 5,000 feet, then taking advantage of winds to help them on their way. They can travel as much as 90 miles a day. Their sense of navigation is astonishing, he said. When they enter Mexico, the butterflies rise as high as 13,000 feet as they head toward the highlands. He followed groups of the insects throughout the journey, over Niagara Falls, down to New York City, and to Washington. He then traveled southwest to Oklahoma, then south through Texas and into Mexico, through all kinds of weather, hunkering down when the butterflies did. Along the way, he met with leading butterfly experts and artists and environmentalists fascinated by the migration. Though he and his ground crew had planned only three events along the route, he received dozens of requests to land. The trip was filmed for a documentary. While Mr. Gutiérrez's landing here generated a sense of good will toward the butterflies, environmentalists and local political leaders say the struggle between the government and the loggers is far from over. The pace of logging has slowed but the cutting continues, they said. The World Wildlife Foundation has set up a $6.5 million fund to pay people living around the butterfly reserves to report on logging rather than harvesting trees. Most of the sanctuaries are part of large tracts, known as ejidos, owned jointly by their residents. But the loggers also bribe local officials and farmers. Some people take money from both sides and allow the logging to continue in any case. Satellite photos compiled by United States scientists show vast reaches of the 138,000-acre reserve have been logged and cleared, often by armed gangs who pay off the authorities. Mr. Vidal said the only solution was to teach people to make money from tourism in the densely forested mountains, not only during the winter butterfly season but in the summer as well. A pilot project to do just that has been started in the most popular reserve, known as El Rosario. 'You have to offer a different way of making money to the landlords,' Mr. Vidal said. 'The vigilance payments alone are not enough.' Mr. Gutiérrez, whose father, Agustín, was a famous stunt pilot and skydiver, said he did not consider his journey to be a major feat of aviation, nothing like Brian Milton's 1998 flight around the world in an ultralight. He said he undertook the trip only to dramatize the need for all three countries to cooperate to save the butterfly. He used his moment in the limelight to emphasize that pesticides in the United States have done as much to harm to the insects as has deforestation in Michoacán.

Subject: A Special Drug Just for You From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:09:37 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/health/08phar.html November 8, 2005 A Special Drug Just for You, at the End of a Long Pipeline By ANDREW POLLACK A new drug for acne, Aczone, was approved in July, but with a catch. The Food and Drug Administration said it would require that patients first be tested for an enzyme deficiency that could put them at risk of developing anemia from the drug. The age of personalized medicine is on the way. Increasingly, experts say, therapies will be tailored for patients based on their genetic makeup or other medical measurements. That will allow people to obtain drugs that would work best for them and avoid serious side effects. But the case of Aczone illustrates a barrier to this new era. Pharmaceutical companies fear that if testing for such genetic markers is required, that will discourage doctors from prescribing a drug or limit a drug's sales to a subset of patients. Upon learning of the testing requirement for Aczone, Astellas, one of its developers, abandoned the drug. The other developer, QLT, is planning another clinical trial in hopes of having the testing requirement lifted. It argues that in a previous clinical trial, only 1.4 percent of patients had the enzyme deficiency and none developed anemia. Tailoring drugs to patients can introduce problems for doctors, as well as drug makers. Transfused blood is an example. Many transfusion centers would love to have a single type of blood suitable for everyone, rather than having to keep different types in stock and worrying that severe problems may occur if the wrong type is transfused. Still, many physicians, regulators, market analysts and pharmaceutical executives agree that despite the obstacles, personalized medicine is inevitable. About 40 of the 50 psychiatrists at the Mayo Clinic use genetic tests to help choose which drugs to prescribe, said Dr. David A. Mrazek, chairman of psychiatry at Mayo. And some companies are offering tests directly to consumers. Mary Jane Q. Cross, an artist in Newport, N.H., developed a permanent tremor on the right side of her body after taking the antidepressant Prozac 14 years ago. She now paints with her fingers because she cannot hold a brush. A year ago, she paid about $600 to Genelex, a company in Seattle, for genetic tests that showed she would have trouble tolerating certain drugs, possibly including Prozac. 'Had I known that 14 years ago, I would not have used the drug,' Ms. Cross said. Recently, when she had an emergency appendectomy, she advised the doctors to use a low dose of anesthesia based on her genetic test results. 'My husband had to go home in the middle of the night to get the material, bring it back and make it clear to them that this was an important issue,' she said. Scientists are finding numerous examples of variations in genes that help predict who will respond to a drug or who will suffer side effects. Most drug companies now routinely collect DNA samples from patients in clinical trials to look for such markers. In March, the F.D.A. issued guidelines to encourage drug companies to pursue personalized medicine, and the agency is adding information about genetic tests to the labels of a few drugs. Since June, the label for Camptosar, a Pfizer drug for colon cancer, has advised doctors that a lower starting dose may be appropriate for the 10 percent of people who have a particular version of a gene called UGT1A1. The variant makes them more prone to a side effect, serious decline in white blood cells. But despite progress, many more years of work will be required before combinations of drugs and tests, sometimes called theranostics, could reach the market. 'I don't see any indication that there is a drug that will come to market in the next five years that will have a DNA-targeted market,' said Dr. Gualberto Ruaño, president of Genomas, a company working on genetic tests for drug use. For that to happen, Dr. Ruaño said, the drug and the genetic test would have to be tested together in a clinical trial. 'What Phase 3 trial is ongoing now where they have selected the patients based on genetic markers?' he asked. Choosing a drug based on a patient's genes is called pharmacogenetics or pharmacogenomics. But pharmacogenetics is just one part of personalized medicine. In fact, all medicine is already personalized to some extent. Cancer patients are treated based on their body size; the type, size and extent of a tumor; and so on. Genetic testing would add just one element to this. Some experts say genes, which provide the instructions for making proteins, may not be the best approach, because a gene, even if present, is not always active. 'Genetic markers per se will be less useful than things further downstream, like proteins in the blood,' said Dr. Mark Fishman, head of drug discovery research at Novartis. Asked for examples of pharmacogenetics, experts usually cite Herceptin, a breast cancer drug given to the 20 to 30 percent of patients whose tumors have abundant levels of a protein called Her2. That Herceptin was approved seven years ago and remains the best example attests to the difficulties in the field. Another example is that doctors treating patients with H.I.V. or AIDS often test a patient's virus for mutations that induce resistance to particular drugs. In both cases, however, it is the disease-causing agent that is being tested, not the patient's genes. Tumor genes are very different from normal genes. So the tests are really diagnostic rather than pharmacogenetic, not much different from characterizing a bacterial infection to prescribe the proper antibiotic. The first widespread use of testing a patient's own genes is likely to be for variations in enzymes involved in metabolizing drugs, particularly those in a family called the Cytochrome P450 enzymes. People with genetic variations that limit the effectiveness of a particular enzyme may not be able to break down a drug quickly enough, allowing dangerously high levels to build up. In June, The American Journal of Psychiatry published a letter from doctors in Fargo, N.D., about a patient who died after receiving a low dose of the antidepressant Paxil, apparently because of an inability to metabolize the drug. Enzyme testing may allow people who metabolize a drug poorly to receive a lower dose to avoid side effects. In contrast, ultrafast metabolizers may need more than the usual dose for the drug to be effective. In some cases, however, the opposite is true. Codeine provides pain relief because it is turned into morphine in the body through an enzyme called 2D6. In December, The New England Journal of Medicine printed a report of a fast metabolizer who received a small dose of codeine as a cough suppressant and developed a life-threatening overdose of morphine. A slow metabolizer, in contrast, would experience little pain relief because the codeine would not be effectively converted into morphine. This year, the F.D.A. approved a test developed by Roche that uses a new type of DNA chip to detect variations in the 2D6 and 2C19 genes, which play a role in metabolism of about 25 percent of prescription drugs. Other clinical laboratories offer their own tests, which do not require F.D.A. approval. Gwynne Wolin, a retired medical transcriber from Coconut Creek, Fla., said she had become sick from taking certain drugs like the heart drug Inderal. A few months ago, she paid $550 to Genelex to test the genes of four drug-metabolizing enzymes. The results showed that she was a poor metabolizer in using the 2C19 enzyme and somewhat slower than normal for the 2D6 enzyme. Mrs. Wolin said the findings gave her evidence to help her refuse certain drugs. 'I've been labeled uncooperative a couple of times,' she said, referring to her doctors' reactions. 'But I've shown them my records, and they've accepted it.' Dr. Mrazek of the Mayo Clinic said he used the tests to help choose antidepressants, particularly for children. There has been concern that some children can turn suicidal or aggressive on antidepressants, and some evidence suggests this may be linked to high drug levels, he said. Dr. Mrazek said Prozac and Paxil were metabolized by the 2D6 enzyme. About 10 percent of Caucasians have a variation in the enzyme that make them poor at eliminating the drugs from their bodies. For those patients, he said, he may prescribe Celexa or Lexapro, antidepressants metabolized primarily by another enzyme, 2C19. So far, though, few psychiatrists, or any doctors, use these tests. The pharmacogenomics laboratory at the University of Louisville, one of the main clinical labs that offer metabolism tests, performed 3,500 to 5,000 in the last year, according to its director, Roland Valdes Jr. Many doctors are unfamiliar with tests, Dr. Valdes said. Some say that their usefulness has not been proven and that it is not always clear how much to raise or lower a dose based on the test results. Doctors' reluctance to change habits is another factor. One of the oldest examples of a pharmacogenetic test is for 6-mercaptopurine, or 6MP, a drug used to some forms of childhood leukemia and inflammatory bowel diseases. About 1 Caucasian in 300 is a very slow metabolizers of 6MP, because he has two copies of a variant of a gene for a protein called TPMT. In these poor metabolizers, the drug can cause a severe, even fatal, decline in white blood cells. But when the F.D.A. held a meeting in 2003 to consider requiring the test for patients prescribed 6MP, some doctors opposed the idea. They argued that the test was not needed because they were already watching for side effects and reducing the drug's dose if necessary. Testing everyone, they argued, would be too costly, given the relatively low incidence of the gene variant. And, they said, requiring the test might scare doctors away from using a drug that could cure cancer. The F.D.A. decided to put information about the test on the drug label, but not to require testing. Health insurers are in some cases balking at paying for pharmacogenetic tests. It might seem that insurers would welcome tests that allowed side effects to be avoided or drugs to be used only in patients who would benefit from them. A test for a single enzyme like 2D6 costs $100 to $500. But a person would need to have the test only once in a lifetime, and it would apply to all the drugs metabolized by that enzyme. Yet Blue Cross Blue Shield concluded that the usefulness of the metabolism tests was not established. In particular, the insurer said, there have been no prospective studies, in which some patients are given the test and others are not to see whether those who are tested do better. Such a genetic test would be useful for the blood thinner warfarin. Even a little bit too much warfarin can cause potentially fatal internal bleeding. In this case, however, the challenge is to find a genetic marker. The 2C9 enzyme metabolizes warfarin. But it is only one of several factors that control the level of the drug in the blood. A recent study pointed to another gene, vitamin K epoxide reductase, as a better predictor. Finding genetic markers is not always easy. 'There are a lot of drugs where simply it's not the right tool,' said Richard S. Judson, former chief scientific officer of Genaissance, a pharmacogenomics company. Dr. Judson said his company had tried but failed to find genetic variations to help determine which cholesterol-lowering statin was best for a particular patient. Other problems might arise, as well. It might be hard for doctors to deny a drug to a desperate patient, even if a genetic test predicted that it was unlikely to work. 'There would be no way with a safe drug for a serious condition that you could tell people they can't take the drug,' said Dr. Allen Roses, senior vice president for genetics research at GlaxoSmithKline. 'It wouldn't be ethical.' Pharmacogenetics, however, does offer drug makers some advantages that might offset the risk that a particular drug would be limited in its use to a subset of patients. For example, a company may be able to charge a higher price if the drug is highly likely to be effective. 'We're not going to have a single blockbuster,' Dr. Roses said. 'We'll take five minibusters.' Clinical trials could also be far smaller, cheaper and quicker if a drug was tested just on patients for whom it was likely to work. Several companies are trying to rescue drugs that failed in clinical trials by retesting them only on people they are likely to work for. Dr. Roses said drug companies were likely to test their drugs on all patients and hope for a broad approval. But if that failed they would request approval for a subset of the patient population. One spur to the use of such tests in the future could be the fear of malpractice lawsuits. If a patient suffers side effects from a drug, doctors might be sued for not using an available test. Pharmaceutical companies might also want to direct drugs at specific patient groups to avoid liability, as in the thousands of lawsuits filed against Merck by people claiming to have been harmed by the pain reliever Vioxx. Merck, which pulled Vioxx from the market last year, marketed the drug very broadly, increasing the company's legal risk when Vioxx was found to cause heart attacks. 'I think you are seeing a change in the air,' said Lawrence J. Lesko, who heads the pharmacogenomics working group at the F.D.A. 'With the concern that everybody has about risk management there's not a lot of pushback from the companies,' Dr. Lesko said.

Subject: The Revolt of Ennui From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 04:40:49 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/09/opinion/09audouard.html November 9, 2005 The Revolt of Ennui By ANTOINE AUDOUARD A FRIEND called me a night ago from Paris. Paris? Not quite. My friend is of Indian origin and comes from a rundown 'cité' in a suburb called Choisy-le-Roi, a housing project plopped down in an 18th-century royal park. The park retains a Louis XV elegance and grace. But as you walk by the project's windows, my friend says, on a good day only a trash bag will land on your head; on a bad day, it could be a washing machine. On Friday, as his mother was having a bite in a restaurant at the local mall, a gang of 20 or so angry youths from the neighborhood stormed into the restaurant, terrorizing customers, poaching food and drinks and ransacking the place. His mother, who is severely disabled and survives on a modest state pension, was frightened. And my friend was frightened for her, but angry as well. In Paris last week, I was struck more than ever by the frustration and anger in the air. There is a joke about France being a nation divided in two: those who complain and those who complain about those who complain. But the joke is no longer funny: as Frenchmen, we grow up with the idea that our national unity is built upon diversity, and that our chronic division against ourselves is, on rare occasions, redeemed by brief periods of national unity. As the first depressing news and images began to pour into our living rooms, however, there was a sad recognition that we did not expect any political leader to give credible political expression to the complex emotions involved - not Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, not Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy (who angered many when he called the rioters 'scum'), not any of their counterparts on the left. As I was telling my friend how appalled and angered I was by everything I had seen, he started suggesting extreme measures - like sending in the army or financially penalizing those parents unable to control their teenagers. 'They talk about the almost 3,000 cars that have been burnt in the past few days,' he said. 'But no one talks about the 28,000 cars that have been burnt since the beginning of the year.' In many respects his words echoed those I'd read earlier on a French music blog whose writers alternated between empathy for the rioters and dismay at their destruction: 'They criticize Sarkozy for calling them 'scum.' But burning our cars, our buses, our schools, what would you call them? Scum, that's what they are.' Despite my friend's instinctive call for law and order, he could not help also sharing much of the anger in the air in the cité. 'I remember,' he said, 'that when my best friend, Iskander, and I were 18 and we got back home, we were stopped and searched every night, by the same cops, who knew us and knew that we were not part of any gang. Just to put us down, humiliate us, remind us who had the power.' While the French left has been for many years in denial about the real situation in the suburbs, the right has more often than not limited its counterrevolution to blindly encouraging the local police forces. But to persecute is not to repress, and humiliation does not thwart crime. Mr. Sarkozy claims the overall crime rate is on the wane, but life in the worst cités of France has grown worse. The unemployment rate, 10 percent nationally, can rise as high as 50 percent in some areas; violence and fear reign in some schools; verbal abuse is everywhere. In many respects, the situation in the cités evokes prison: the inmates' life sentence is the color of their skin. Meanwhile, the engine of French politics - the state as Great Purveyor - has stuttered and stalled. To acknowledge this, however, would require a political courage that clashes with most politicians' personal ambitions. The outcome of this crisis may very well be that more money will be spent without any serious review of the failings of the welfare state (what is the name for a 'welfare state' when welfare is gone?). Over the years, billions have been poured into a whole array of 'social' projects. (A cruel paradox is that the government recently granted Clichy-sous-Bois, where the riots began on Oct. 27, 330 million euros for renovating its worst housing projects.) But the central failure of this policy, which goes beyond the dubious boundaries between governments right, left and center, is that it has never managed to provide job opportunities for the children and grandchildren of immigrant workers. I asked my friend what he thought about the ebullient creativity the government was trying to show. He replied by recalling 2002, when the anti-immigrant politician Jean-Marie Le Pen made it into the runoff for the presidency, and last May when voters rejected the European Constitution. 'All the politicians were on TV, claiming that they got the message and things would change,' he said. 'How long did that last?' And indeed, Mr. de Villepin's 'Marshall plan' for the suburbs seems to be a combination of wishful thinking ('we should all change our behavior'), Gaullian posturing ('All those in our republic, whatever their age, have duties toward the nation') and good old pork-barrel politics. With the rioters' having no articulate political expression beyond anger, and with cities and towns starting to impose curfews, it seems unlikely that the current unrest will develop into a fully fledged rebellion. But the crisis has once more exposed the shortcomings of a society that no longer knows how to enforce its own rules or how to create the dream of a better life for its new generations.

Subject: Paul Krugman's column From: Dorian To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 04:03:54 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Why doesn't Paul Krugman simply quit writing for the NY Times and syndicate his column instead? As it is, all that he has to say is locked up by the Times and is lost to the rest of the nation. This occured to me after I heard Robert Scheer responding to his firing by the LA Times. Despite no longer working for the Times, he will continue writing his column and making it available through syndication. Dorian

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman's column From: Emma To: Dorian Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 04:30:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The New York Times is the finest newspaper in America, possibly in the world, and easily worth the modest price of subscription. Paul Krugman could not be writing in a more influential venue, though of course we could wish for even more access around the world. I understand the frustration, but look for a way to gain full access for there are even more gems than Paul Krugman.

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman's column From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 05:28:55 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Truthout http://www.truthout.org/ for Paul Krugman and Bob Herbert.

Subject: Virtues of Single-Payer Health Care From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 17:28:27 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/ November 8, 2005 The Virtues of Single-Payer Health Care By Brad DeLong Paul Krugman writes about the virtues of single-payer: Pride, Prejudice, Insurance - New York Times: Employment-based health insurance is the only serious source of coverage for Americans too young to receive Medicare and insufficiently destitute to receive Medicaid, but it's an institution in decline. Between 2000 and 2004 the number of Americans under 65 rose by 10 million. Yet the number of nonelderly Americans covered by employment-based insurance fell by 4.9 million. The funny thing is that the solution - national health insurance, available to everyone - is obvious. But to see the obvious we'll have to overcome pride - the unwarranted belief that America has nothing to learn from other countries - and prejudice - the equally unwarranted belief, driven by ideology, that private insurance is more efficient than public insurance. Let's start with the fact that America's health care system spends more, for worse results, than that of any other advanced country. In 2002 the United States spent $5,267 per person on health care. Canada spent $2,931; Germany spent $2,817; Britain spent only $2,160. Yet the United States has lower life expectancy and higher infant mortality than any of these countries. But don't people in other countries sometimes find it hard to get medical treatment? Yes, sometimes - but so do Americans. No, Virginia, many Americans can't count on ready access to high-quality medical care.... Americans are far more likely than others to forgo treatment because they can't afford it. Forty percent of the Americans surveyed failed to fill a prescription because of cost. A third were deterred by cost from seeing a doctor when sick or from getting recommended tests or follow-up. Why does American medicine cost so much yet achieve so little?... The U.S. system is much more bureaucratic... because private insurers and other players work hard at trying not to pay for medical care. And our fragmented system is unable to bargain... for lower prices. Taiwan, which moved 10 years ago from a U.S.-style system to a Canadian-style single-payer system, offers an object lesson in the economic advantages of universal coverage. In 1995 less than 60 percent of Taiwan's residents had health insurance; by 2001 the number was 97 percent. Yet... this huge expansion in coverage came virtually free: it led to little if any increase in overall health care spending beyond normal growth due to rising population and incomes.... The economic and moral case for health care reform in America, reform that would make us less different from other advanced countries, is overwhelming. One of these days we'll realize that our semiprivatized system isn't just unfair, it's far less efficient than a straightforward system of guaranteed health insurance.

Subject: Interesting piece of info From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 15:59:33 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The following is part of an interview by National Business Radio (NBR) in early June with Robert Toll of Toll Brothers. From June 23rd through the end of July 2005, Robert Toll sold about $180 million in Toll Brothers stock and his brother Bruce likewise sold very large amounts of TOL. They had been selling heavily before this interview and have continued selling to the present with no acquistions through the end of September. This can be verified on Yahoo Finance under insider transactions for ticker symbol 'TOL'. NBR interview: GHARIB: 'As I mentioned just a few moments ago, Toll Brothers stock hit a new all- time high today. I want to get your thoughts on that and would you be a buyer of your stock at these levels?' TOLL: 'Yes, I would and I think it`s just fabulous. Our multiple is only about 11 times estimated P/E going forward. The people that supply us, the home building supply companies I believe sell at three or four more multiple than we do. So if we approach the average of the S&P, for instance, we would be selling at 18 to 20 times and right now at 11, I`d say that makes a tremendous buy.'

Subject: Re: Interesting piece of info From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 17:18:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Absolutely, Pete. We noted Toll selling and recommending earlier, and I have not forgotten.

Subject: Prints That Helped Europe Discover From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 15:52:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/23/arts/design/23glue.html?ex=1285128000&en=d0bb63dfd0060563&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 23, 2005 Prints That Helped Europe Discover Its Great Artists By GRACE GLUECK The art-alert today are so used to thinking of 'prints' as originals that it takes refocusing to remember that they were also once valued as reproductions, a means of copying other artists' works. In fact, from the early 16th century to the beginning of the 19th, widely circulated prints in a variety of techniques were the only means of acquainting a broad public with original works whose ownership rested in the hands of the church and other wealthy patrons. Artists like Dürer, Raphael, Rubens and even Michelangelo became widely known through reproductive prints - relatively inexpensive and very portable - circulated throughout Europe. Rubens, viewing the process as important to promoting his name and work, hired professional printmakers to copy his paintings and even retouched their prints to reinforce accuracy. The variety and vitality of these printed reproductions are seen in 'Paper Museums: The Reproductive Print in Europe, 1500-1800' at New York University's Grey Art Gallery, a show that points up how prints effectively circulated artists' works and ideas throughout Europe in the Renaissance and Baroque eras. Organized by the David and Alfred Smart Museum of Art at the University of Chicago, the show was assembled by Rebecca Zorach, assistant professor of art history there, with the collaboration of Elizabeth Rodini, a lecturer in the history of art at Johns Hopkins University, and Anne Leonard, a curator at the museum. Among their theses is that the development of the printed image is an overlooked achievement of the European Renaissance. Don't expect lots of pictorial splash here. The prints, most in black and white, are relatively small compared with paintings and other originals and require close looking to follow the sometimes esoteric points they illustrate. Yet many are wonderfully elegant and elaborate specimens of the printer's art, sometimes following the originals with great fidelity but often embellishing or changing the images in ways peculiar to the creative invention of the printmaker or to the process itself. A case in point is a big woodcut, 'The Large Village Fair,' made in 1539 by the German engraver and miniaturist Hans Sebald Beham. This very elaborate production shows in great detail the period architecture of a small village crowded with revelers on a peasants' holiday, depicting incidents like a man vomiting after maybe too much beer and an open-air dentist treating a patient as his assistant slyly reaches into the victim's purse. Beham's original was done on four sheets and is more than three feet wide. The woodcut was translated into a far smaller engraving (undated) by one Johann Theodor de Bry. The show's catalog explains that the change in scale was made possible by the engraving process, which produces a thinner line than woodcutting. De Bry reversed Beham's image while retaining its essence. The smaller image was less expensive and more portable, and the metal engraving plate was more durable than the woodblock, allowing for many more impressions. The works of Michelangelo were reproduced by many printmakers during his lifetime, but he shunned collaboration. The results are quite varied. Two engravings of his 'Last Judgment' fresco in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel are shown here, both done in the 1540's by different contemporary printmakers, each taking liberties with Michelangelo's masterpiece. One, by Giulio di Antonio Bonasone, reproduces the entire fresco, based on a drawing done in black chalk by the printmaker himself, already establishing a distance between the original and the copy. But Bonasone's black-and-white engraving sacrifices details to the whole, and doesn't use nuances of shading to indicate differences of color. His print had to compete with superior versions, including one by Domenico del Barbiere, who took a very different approach. He zeroed in on one element of the fresco, Saint Bartholomew surrounded by several saints. In this feat of interpretation, which reverses and isolates the figures, Barbiere makes clever use of tonal contrasts to indicate volume, while emphasizing Michelangelo's muscular, stylized treatment of figures. Though bold and quirky, in an idiom very much Barbiere's own, this oddly shaped fragment can still be considered a reproduction, albeit a highly creative one. The liberties taken by these and other printmakers raise questions about authorship and authenticity. On the one hand, Alexandra M. Korey, a Ph.D. candidate at the university, notes in her catalog essay, prints were a splendid medium for conveying great art to a wide public and contributing to artists' recognition. But by allowing wide latitude to the printmaker, print reproductions could throw doubt on the authorship, originality and accuracy of the images that inspired them. Early in his career, the Bolognese engraver Marcantonio Raimondi (later to win recognition as a copier-interpreter of Raphael) took a fancy to the work of Dürer. As recounted by Giorgio Vasari, the 16th-century writer on art, Dürer was so incensed by Raimondi's copies of his 'Life of the Virgin' series in 20 woodcuts (circa 1504-5) that he sued and succeeded in keeping him from using Dürer's insignia. Yet it appears on Raimondi's line-for-line copy of Dürer's 'Presentation of Christ in the Temple' (circa 1506) in the show, which is differentiated from the original mainly by different paper and ink tones. Borrowings like these, Ms. Korey suggests, could fool the public into purchasing Raimondi's prints at the same prices as those obtained for Dürer's. Among the many fine examples of printmaking in this ambitious show is a group of delicate pastoral landscapes by J. M. W. Turner, from his 'Liber Studiorum,' after drawings that he fully intended as models for prints. Realizing the benefits of wide dissemination of his works, Turner himself participated in translating the drawing into prints, etching part of the composition and relying on experts for completion. A small and not very impressive section of prints made by women is also in the exhibition, but it is noteworthy because printmaking was a male-dominated profession. Still, entire families were often involved in print workshops, and the women learned their art from fathers, brothers and husbands. This exhibition is fascinating territory for those with the ambition to negotiate its scholarly presentation and catalog. But it's a bit of culture shock to encounter the show in the lower-level gallery, by a young Italian artist, Andrea Facco, presented as a 'response' to the main attraction. His series 'Zapping' (Italian for channel-surfing) is a large group of realistically painted scenes derived from television screens by rapid working of a remote, causing bits of weather programs, cartoons, sports events, pornographic films and such to beat at the eye. Supposedly, his work reverses the concept of 'The Paper Museum' show, turning multiple images into individual hand-painted works. Mr. Facco is a clever and facile responder, but this sideshow adds nothing to the main event.

Subject: Economic Growth From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 08:56:55 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Consumer spending flows and ebbs, and changes in composition, but there is still no reason to believe consumer spending is slowing or that it will slow significantly in the near term. I find little consumer reluctance to spend just now, debt and all. The stock market looks healthy here as a reflection of consumer spending, and stocks are soaring internationally. Real estate is holding. Bonds are mildly declining in price.

Subject: Re: Economic Growth From: Jennifer To: Terri Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 13:55:04 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There are increasing signs that the housing market is slowing, so we need to watch carefully for employment and consumption slowing as a result.

Subject: Re: Economic Growth From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 14:03:37 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Though I am somewhat bullish, I am paying close attention to the housing market here, and housing markets abroad, to detect a slowing that cannot easily be countered by a central bank. I am not going to be smug or complacent. Nervousness suits me :)

Subject: The obvious..... From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 07:37:20 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: yet the bigger question - why do so few give the obvious any thought? From the Dallas Morning News: Danielle DiMartino: Consumers may have to cut spending 07:02 AM CST on Monday, November 7, 2005 Who can remember the last three months of 1991? Few people on Wall Street can, apparently. That happens to be the last time consumer spending slowed in this country. It has indeed been a long and robust stretch for the U.S. consumer, which helps explain why so few can fathom the consumer reining in their purchases for a spell. Consider the title of a recent report from Banc of America Securities: 'Stopping the Consumer Requires Kryptonite, Not Expensive Oil.' Rather than cut spending, the report said, consumers will draw down their savings some more. And really, can you blame anyone on Wall Street for believing that? David Rosenberg doesn't believe it. He's the chief economist at Merrill Lynch in New York. 'You get a little jaded when the last time the U.S. consumer pressed the pause button was the fourth quarter of 1991,' Mr. Rosenberg said. He's been comparing household debt to disposable personal incomes. It was only about five years ago that we passed what was considered 'the point of no return.' That's where households' total liabilities exceeded their disposable personal incomes. Faster, faster Of course, Americans saw that line in the sand and galloped over it at breakneck speed. Today the debt-to-income ratio stands at a gravity-defying 124 percent. What is so notable, Mr. Rosenberg said, is the recent acceleration of debt growth. 'Households have tacked on as much to this debt ratio in the past five years as they did in the past 15 years combined,' Mr. Rosenberg said. 'That's quite a feat.' Seem too incredible to believe? Consider this: It took 30 years leading up to 1986 for the debt-to-income ratio to grow from 50 percent to 75 percent. From there, it took 15 years to hit the 100 percent mark. Since then, it's taken us only five more years to get to nearly 125 percent. 'The point is not where we are, but how fast debt grew,' Mr. Rosenberg said. 'This has been, without a shadow of a doubt, the most pronounced credit-financed consumer-spending spree ever recorded.' Cultural shift Put economics aside for a minute. The chart also depicts one of the most remarkable cultural shifts in our country's history. For decades, we prided ourselves on saving and investing in our future. The savings rate in 1960 was 7 percent and peaked in 1982 at 11 percent. But recently, it's turned negative. In other words, we're tapping savings just to get by each month. To add insult to the lack of control over our destiny, foreign investors financed much of the spending and now control nearly half of our outstanding debt. But Mr. Rosenberg insists what we've done to ourselves isn't our fault. 'Consumers acted completely rationally in this cycle,' he said. 'They tooketh what the Fed and the financial system gaveth.' So is this where the story ends? What's next? Do we skip off into the sunset and continue to beat our balance sheets to a pulp simply because we can and foreign investors allow it? If only that were the case, the majority of Wall Street crystal-ball gazers would be in the clear. But the reality is, the carefree days of living large on debt are over

Subject: Re: The obvious..... From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 10:18:18 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: A prime rule for investors should be 'never underestimate the American consumer.' I never do. Alan Greenspan has often argued that household balance sheets are fine; I agree. We generally know how to handle debt.

Subject: Re: The obvious..... From: Pete Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 15:49:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Can the American consumer be overestimated? Why would underestimating be the only 'prime rule'? As we look back in history we see periods where the American consumer has packed it in a very big way - isn't that true? Incidently, the last time the American consumer folded his tent was at personal debt levels only seen in recent years.

Subject: Corrections From: Pete Weis To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 17:20:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I meant to ask - why would NOT underestimating the American consumer be the only 'prime rule'. Also the last line should read - 'Incidently, the last time the American consumer folded his tent was at personal debt levels only seen once again, in recent years.'

Subject: Re: Corrections From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 17:51:14 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Sorry, I do not quite understand the question or the reference.

Subject: Re: Corrections From: Pete Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Wed, Nov 09, 2005 at 12:40:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: For myself, the 'prime rule' of never underestimating the American consumer rates the same level of adherence as viewing 'the glass as half full'. Viewing the glass as 'half full' is just as bad as viewing it 'half empty'. It is simply one of those clever manipulative phrases crafted to get a certain response from its targets. The glass should be viewed as having a level of fluid at its 'midpoint'. Underestimating or overestimating the American consumer is not the point to be considered. Rather its about what is supporting the US consumer and will that support continue. It's clear to me that the American consumer is very indebted (the highest ratio to GDP in history - the last time it approached this level was the early 30's which preceded a steep decline in US consumption) and has been supported by the 'housing ATM' most recently. The 20th century has seen many ups and downs for the US consumer - the 30's being the toughest period.

Subject: Re: The obvious..... From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 14:05:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Keep in mind that my portfolio is highly conservative, well diversified. I can be optimistic and cautious, I think.

Subject: Land South of the Clouds From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 06:13:05 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/07/arts/design/07clou.html?ex=1289019600&en=53b6bc59ba9cdc76&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 7, 2005 Native Eyes on a Land South of the Clouds By ERIK ECKHOLM He was herding goats high up the creases of sacred Mount Kawagebo when the morning light seemed right, recalled Ananzhu, an ethnic Tibetan from an isolated village of southern China. So he took out his camera. The scene he captured that day, of an emerald lake beneath two conical, ice-capped peaks, was both stunning and layered with meanings. Ananzhu (he has only one name) was carrying a camera provided by the United States-based Nature Conservancy as part of a Photovoice project. More than 250 people from 60 villages in northern Yunnan province, all from ethnic minorities, have been given a way to document, through their own eyes, their cultures and surroundings. His alpine scene is one of some 45 photographs from the project now on display at the American Museum of Natural History in 'Voices From South of the Clouds' (a reference to Yunnan, Chinese for 'south of the clouds'). The exhibition is in the small Akeley gallery, behind the African mammals, and runs until March 12. Ananzhu was one of three village photographers the conservancy brought to New York last week for a cultural celebration. The pictures provide a record of endangered traditions and landscapes but the main goal, said Ann McBride Norton, a conservancy adviser in Asia who organized the project, is to give a voice to northern Yunnan's diverse peoples. The region's myriad ethnic groups - including many people who are illiterate and do not even speak Chinese - are facing surges in tourism, road-building and investment. The conservancy is working with local officials to promote environmentally benign development, an idea with shallow roots in economically booming China. With some of the last unspoiled remnants in all of China, Yunnan is not only ethnically but also biologically rich, a 'hot spot' for plant species including 162 species of rhododendron that sprinkle the hillsides with pink flowers each spring. Helping indigenous people to document themselves with photographs is a longtime technique of anthropologists. The Natural History museum was drawn to the Yunnan pictures because they capture the nexus between culture and environment, said Eleanor Sterling, co-curator of the show and director of the museum's center for biodiversity and conservation. And crucially, she said, 'the photos were spectacular.' In starting the project, Ms. Norton drew inspiration and advice from the Center for Documentary Studies at Duke University, where the photographer Wendy Ewald has been a pioneer in the combined use of cameras and writing as a way to stimulate learning and community awareness in schools and elsewhere. 'Photography is a pretty democratic art form,' noted Katy Hyde, director of the Literacy Through Photography program at the Duke center. For the Yunnan project, the Eastman Kodak Company donated point-and-shoot cameras (a model that sells for $7 in China). In short training sessions, villagers were taught how to use them and, rather than being told what makes a good picture, they were shown multitudes of photographs and encouraged to discuss what they liked and why. They are provided with one roll of film each month, along with the results of the previous month's effort. They are asked to provide background information on the pictures that is sometimes quite revealing. In the case of his mountain scene, Ananzhu, 41, wrote that when he saw the same spot as a child, the lake was much smaller. 'The glacier is shrinking and the lake is growing, and we don't know why,' he said in an interview. When his picture was displayed in his home village of Yubeng, elders were prompted to tell children the sacred meaning of the pictured valley: the meeting place of the war gods of Mount Kawagebo. Several of the fledgling photographers turned out to have a particularly good eye. Hong Zhengyong's image of a girl in distinctive ethnic dress slaughtering a chicken amid dazzling yellow fields, for example, is one of several in the exhibition with classic diagonals and symmetries. Mr. Hong, 28, mainly photographed his father, one of the last great Yi shamans, performing healing rituals and animal sacrifices. 'I worry that the knowledge will be lost,' he said in New York. He documented the rituals just in time: his father recently died. Some of the pictures celebrate scenic splendors and participants, including Ananzhu, said they did not fully appreciate the beauty around them until they saw it in a photograph. Others document hardships: children collecting firewood, or writing their homework on the side of a basket as they accompany their parents to farm plots. The caption to a picture of a Tibetan woman milking a yak in a blizzard says, 'Even in wintertime we have to go out to get milk.' After touring New York, the villagers said they were impressed but not overawed. The buildings are very tall, said Ananzhu. 'But even the tallest building,' he noted, 'is not as high as our lowest mountain.'

Subject: John Fowles Connects From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 05:44:12 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/05/31/specials/fowles-french.html November 10, 1969 On the Third Try, John Fowles Connects By CHRISTOPHER LEHMANN-HAUPT THE FRENCH LIEUTENANT'S WOMAN By John Fowles. A warning: Before you begin John Fowles's new novel, be certain there's only one log on the fire. If, unhappily, you lack the fireplace by which this book should be read, set an alarm clock. 'The French Lieutenant's Woman' is 467 pages long. No matter how fast a reader you may be, it's not good for the circulation to sit in one position for the length of time required to read it. You'll need something to remind you to stretch your legs every so often. It's that kind of book. It's filled with enchanting mysteries that demand solutions, and the solutions are withheld until the last page. And even beyond the end. When I finished it, I started over, searching for missed clues, testing the beginning in light of the end. If I'd had time, I'd have read it straight through again. The language is elegant enough, the solutions elusive enough. First of all, there is Mr. Fowles's story--a story so irresistibly novelistic that he has disguised it as a Victorian romance, one thinks at first. The year is 1867. Our leading man, Mr. Charles Smithson, is looking forward to an excellent marriage to Miss Ernestina Freeman, the fair daughter of a wealthy tradesman. Charles is in the prime of life (32), well-born (with prospects of a baronetcy), a gentleman of honor, a scientist of sorts, quite modern, an adherent of Mr. Darwin's writings. A Destined Convergence One day, while walking by the sea with his betrothed, and exchanging hyperbolical pleasantries, Charles comes upon a strange young woman standing forlornly, 'her stare aimed like a rifle at the farthest horizon.' Upon asking Ernestina about the woman's identity, he learns that she is Sarah Woodruff, known to the residents of Lyme Regis, Dorset, as the abandoned lover of a French naval officer, and a 'hoer.' Sarah is not precisely beautiful. But to Charles there is something in her eyes and in her manner that sets her far apart, that makes her the secret possessor of possibilities that marriage to Ernestina threatens to blot out forever. It is deliciously obvious from page 1 on that Charles's and Sarah's paths are destined to converge. But Mr. Fowles withholds the encounter deftly enough to charge it with magically erotic possibilities. What, after all, is more seductive than a possibility? (And though his prose is chaste in thought and deed, Mr. Fowles clearly knows his Victorian pornographers.) Very Victorian, in short. If you have the smallest residual weakness for Dickens, you are lost. But why, for Heaven's sake, a Victorian novel in this day and age of RobbÈ-Grillet? What is this practitioner of flawed Gothica ('The Collector' and 'The Magus') up to now? Here quickly arises another element of suspense. For it is also clear from page 1 on that Mr. Fowles is not going to be satisfied merely with witty (and often brilliantly erudite) anachronistic comments on the manners, morals, literature, art and science of a century before. Not only will something surprising happen to the story of 'The French Lieutenant's Woman;' something will happen to the form of the book as well. And the prospect adds immeasurably to the suspense. Choice of Two Endings Let me recapitulate. One likes Charles. One admires him even. As an enlightened inhabitant of the 1960's one can share his Darwinian view of Sarah Woodruff, with her cool contempt for Victorian morals, as an evolutionary advance. One can identify with his considerable heroism in throwing in his lot with her, even at the cost of his good standing (and Fowles makes his act more poignant than your would imagine possible). One cares a great deal how the story will turn out. And one feels, secure in Mr. Fowles's hands, that it will turn out well. But it develops that Mr. Fowles has a problem, which he graciously explains in chapter 55, while riding with Charles on a train to London. (Yes, literally.) Mr. Fowles doesn't know what to do with his story. He can't manipulate the plot (or, as he says, 'fix the fight') 'to show one's readers what one thinks of the world around one' because this story happened a hundred years ago and 'we know what has happened since.' The only solution, he decides, is to write two endings. So he proceeds. The first is heart-warming, gratifying, a very 'Great Expectations' of an ending, a thorough domestication of eroticism, wholly consistent with Fowles's charming tale. The tale we thought we had been reading, at any rate. Then comes the second ending. It explodes all the assumptions our Victorian sensibilities had so willingly embraced. In a giant step it covers the distance between the Victorian novel and the roman nouveau. It leaves one wondering which century was more sexually liberated. It is a shock. It is comic. It signals the sudden but predictable arrival of a remarkable novelist.

Subject: Charity or Medicare? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 05:32:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/07/business/07drug.html?ex=1289019600&en=95d853f9f8f43a06&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 7, 2005 Another Choice for Elderly: Charity or Medicare? By STEPHANIE SAUL The pharmaceutical industry's version of a campaign bus, the 'Help Is Here Express,' has toured 25 states this year to spread the word about charity prescription programs sponsored by drug companies. But even as the bright orange bus travels from state to state enrolling patients in the programs, the assistance may be coming to a halt for thousands of elderly people. One of them is Walter Bach of Glendale, Queens. Mr. Bach, 65, who is blind, received worrisome news last month from Bristol-Myers Squibb. The free Plavix he gets from the company's charitable foundation will stop if he enrolls in the new Medicare prescription program that begins in January. Mr. Bach says that his free Plavix, a $125-a-month blood thinner that reduces the risk of heart attacks and strokes, is more valuable than the immediate benefits he would receive from signing up for the Medicare program, even taking into account the three inexpensive generic drugs he also takes. The letter telling Mr. Bach that he must choose between Bristol-Myers's program and the new Medicare drug benefit speaks to an unintended effect that the new Medicare plan is having on the pharmaceutical industry's charity drug programs. Some companies are simply eliminating their charity programs for older people, taking the position that the recipients are now eligible for Medicare drug coverage. But even in programs like Bristol's that will remain in place for the low-income elderly, the us-or-them ultimatum throws one more tricky variable into retirees' assessment of the Medicare plan. The drug companies, which distributed free drugs with a retail value of $4.1 billion last year to an estimated three million to four million Americans, will continue their charity programs in some cases, focusing on other patients with financial needs who don't qualify for the Medicare prescription drug program. But the companies also complain that the Medicare law means that a patient cannot get drug subsidies from them and also participate in the program. Dr. Mark McClellan, administrator of the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said during an interview late last week that nothing prevented the industry programs from continuing, as long as the free or subsidized drugs the patients received were not counted toward their Medicare co-payments or deductibles. Several drug companies have sent proposals to the Health and Human Services department, asking for guidance, and its Office of Inspector General is reviewing their legality. The Medicare Rights Center, an organization that helps Medicare recipients understand the system (and where Mr. Bach works part-time), is monitoring the changes in the charity programs. Those programs are generally aimed at people whose incomes fall near the poverty level - but who make too much to qualify for Medicaid, the federal health care program for the poor. 'It's an important issue to see what the drug companies will do with these plans,' said Robert M. Hayes, president of the center. 'It's yet one more blow to the algorithm of informed decision-making.' The decision by Bristol-Myers is similar to the stance of Merck, which said it would be notifying the affected patients. But Eli Lilly is notifying 235,000 older people that its charitable program for the elderly, Lilly Answers, will end next May. The program distributed $140 million in subsidized medications last year, charging a $12 co-payment. Edward G. Sagebiel, a spokesman for Lilly, said the company viewed that program simply as a bridge until Medicare drug benefits kicked in. Mr. Sagebiel said it was possible that some over-65 people could receive assistance through other Lilly programs. Johnson & Johnson, meanwhile, is notifying doctors that their patients must first be turned down for extra help under provisions of the new Medicare plan before they can apply to Johnson & Johnson's program. The cutbacks in charity drug assistance for the elderly are coming only six months after the industry began a campaign to publicize the programs widely. Last April, the drug industry's trade group introduced the Partnership for Prescription Assistance as a centerpiece of the industry's efforts to improve its image. In a news release last week, the trade group Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America said that an additional 5,000 people had been signing up each day as a result of the industry's new toll-free call center and a publicity campaign that includes the bus, an enrollment center on wheels. Ken Johnson, a spokesman for the trade group, acknowledged that the new Medicare program could cause a decline in the programs' overall enrollment, possibly as much as 40 percent. But he said that the industry sign-up effort would continue. 'It's possible that there will be drop-off, but at the same time, we're going to be very aggressive in reaching out to the millions of other Americans who are below the age of 65,' Mr. Johnson said. He said the industry was doubling its advertising budget and sending out a second bus, and had signed the television host Montel Williams as a spokesman beginning in January. 'There are millions of people in America who could qualify for one of these programs but are not receiving assistance,' Mr. Johnson said. 'We're on the road to try to find them, state by state, city by city.' The pharmaceutical industry complains that one reason the programs are being cut back for older people is that federal laws prohibit health care companies from giving something of value to Medicaid and Medicare participants. While the statutes are aimed at reducing opportunities for fraud rather than curbing charity to individuals, they do call into question any kind of financial relationship between drug providers and recipients. The solution, suggested by legal guidance from the federal department of Health and Human Services, might be a pooled charity fund set up by all drug companies. That may be hard to sell to the companies, though, who may fear that they will end up subsidizing a competitor's drug. 'A lot of companies want to help, but they've run into a legal roadblock,' said Mr. Johnson, the spokesman for the drug industry trade group. But Dr. McClellan of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Studies said that the companies 'can continue their current programs, they can make contributions to private foundations that are planning to fill in gaps, or they can collaborate,' said Dr. McClellan. 'There are lots of options, none of which are precluded by the Medicare drug benefit.' Benefits under the Medicare drug plan depend on income. Among low-income people, a single person with a monthly income between $1,076 and $1,197 - defined as 135 to 150 percent of the poverty level - pays a sliding scale premium for coverage, a $50 deductible and 15 percent coinsurance until drug expenses reach $3,600 a year, according to figures from Dr. McClellan's office. At that point, the individual is eligible to receive generic drugs for a $2 co-payment and brand-name drugs for a $5 co-payment. Some officials have expressed concern that the pharmaceutical companies might assist Medicare recipients until the $3,600 level, locking them into an expensive brand-name drug that they would continue using after crossing the threshold. Ultimately, under that scenario, the charity programs could increase costs to the program. Mr. Hayes of the Medicare Rights Center, who refers to the charity programs as '10 percent help and 90 percent hype,' says the drug industry has a history of operating programs with red tape that limits the actual number of charity recipients. 'They placed hurdles that kept demand for these programs down,' Mr. Hayes said. 'Whether or not they were purposeful obstacles or not, we got very little receptivity to the easy measures we recommended to make them easier. Patient-assistance programs may not be something the companies are promoting with 100 percent enthusiasm.' But Mr. Johnson said recent outreach efforts by the industry were aimed at streamlining the application process and reducing red tape. And he added that industry surveys revealed that customer satisfaction with the programs was increasing. Mr. Bach said late last week that he had analyzed his situation and decided he would not sign up for the Medicare drug program for now. His reliance on industry assistance is simply too great. 'I have no alternative,' Mr. Bach said. 'I need it.'

Subject: Where to Be Jobless in Europe From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 05:28:55 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/weekinreview/09land.html?ex=1286510400&en=dec7836946e7a878&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 9, 2005 Where to Be Jobless in Europe By MARK LANDLER FRANKFURT — EUROPEANS are famous for trying to take the sting out of unemployment, with generous and long-lasting jobless benefits. Even when political and business leaders have warned that their societies can no longer afford such largess, the European public has clung to these safety nets. But even within Western Europe, some countries are more accommodating to those out of work than others. So it is tempting to ask: Where is it easiest to be unemployed? The answer, predictably, can depend on an individual's situation: whether one is young or old, single or married, childless or with a family, recently out of work or chronically unemployed. But attitude also plays a role: Is the person eager to find another job or looking for a life of leisure? And is the country trying hard to get the employee back to work? In Denmark, said David B. Grubb, an economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a typical unemployed person might get 80 percent of past income for four years. 'But after the first year,' he said, 'you've got to spend a lot of your time in temporary jobs or training programs.' Europe's lush benefits are often blamed for helping to perpetuate its high unemployment, though it should be noted that Denmark, with perhaps the softest touch of all, has a jobless rate of 4.8 percent, roughly equivalent to the United States'. In addition to the emphasis on job seeking, Denmark has relatively weak job-protection rules, which make it easier for companies to fire workers in the first place, opening up the labor market. Mr. Grubb, who has compared unemployment benefits in 26 countries, offers one general rule: the most generous countries are also the ones most likely to put the most pressure on recipients to find new jobs. Germany has historically catered to both those in and out of work. Thanks to its still-powerful labor movement, job protection laws here are among the strictest in Europe. As for taking care of the unemployed, the generosity was epitomized by the notorious 2003 case of 'Florida Rolf,' a former banker found living in Miami in an apartment near the beach that he paid for with $2,200 a month in German welfare checks. In Germany, people who lose their jobs receive 60 percent of their salaries for 12 months to 36 months. Following that, they previously were able to draw long-term assistance and other benefits that could total 53 percent of their wages. But Chancellor Gerhard Schröder cut back the long-term payments, and as of next February, Germans who are out of work for more than a year will be entitled to benefits similar to ordinary welfare - about $414 a month, plus money for rent and utilities. That cutback, however, has probably put a firm brake on any further changes to the system. In the national election last month, the voters punished Mr. Schröder by refusing to give him a renewed mandate. But at the same time the electorate denied a majority to his conservative challenger, Angela Merkel, who had advocated even stronger free-market medicine. The likely outcome is government by an alliance of the two major parties, each feeling it imperative not to mess with unemployment benefits. Voters reacted so negatively because the government's parsimony coincided with a wave of job cuts that have helped raise the unemployment rate to 9.6 percent. German officials said the change in long-term benefits was intended to discourage able-bodied people from permanently opting out of the work force. But other benefits are also available, and it is unclear whether some people might still get paid more not to work rather than to find a new job. 'This is a difficult question that occupies us as well,' said Eugen Spitznagel, a researcher at the state-run Institute of Employment Research in Nuremberg. 'It's a hypothesis that is plausible, but difficult to prove. We don't have the empirical data yet to answer it directly.' Among other European countries, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal are viewed as particularly generous to the unemployed, while Britain and Greece are seen as among the stingiest. France might be the cushiest alternative of all, however. France not only offers generous compensation, but it has yet to organize an efficient network of job training and placement centers. So in pratcical terms, the most an out-of-work person has to do to maintain benefits, Mr. Grubb said, is to call in every six months to confirm that no new job has been found. The French government is trying to change this laissez-faire approach - in part by adding yet another benefit. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin has proposed giving the unemployed a bonus of 1,000 euros, or about $1,200, for taking a job, even as the government weighs a three-strikes rule, under which jobless people would lose their unemployment compensation if they turned down three job offers. The French government is also trying to make it easier for small companies to lay off workers. But that proposal provoked thousands of strikers to take to the streets last week in Paris and other cities. Mrs. Merkel floated a similar idea in Germany, and it did her little good at the polls. Still, some European experts say that French and German leaders are at least looking at the heart of the unemployment problem: that companies are not likely to hire more freely unless they can fire more freely. As Katinka Barysch, the chief economist of the Center for European Reform in London, put it, 'the best place to lose your job is in a country where it's easiest to find a new job.'

Subject: John Fowles From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 05:11:49 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/books/08fowles.html?ex=1289106000&en=bd3d340d8ca8da9b&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 8, 2005 John Fowles, 79, British Postmodernist Who Tested Novel's Conventions By SARAH LYALL John Fowles, the British writer whose teasing, multilayered fiction explored the tensions between free will and the constraints of society, even as it played with traditional novelistic conventions and challenged readers to find their own interpretations, died on Saturday at his home in Lyme Regis, England. He was 79. His death was announced by his publisher, Random House UK. No cause was given, but Random House said Mr. Fowles, who suffered a stroke in the late 1980's and had heart problems, had been ill for some time. Mr. Fowles's originality, versatility and skill were nowhere more evident than in his most celebrated novels, among them 'The Collector,' 'The Magus' and 'The French Lieutenant's Woman.' In 'The French Lieutenant's Woman,' for example, he combined the melodrama of a 19th-century Victorian novel with the sensibility of a 20th-century postmodern narrator, offering his readers two alternative endings from which to choose and at one point boldly inserting himself into the book as a character who accompanies the hero on a train to London. In 'The Collector,' Mr. Fowles painted an eerily plausible portrait of a psychopath who kidnaps a young woman out of what he imagines is love, telling the story from the two characters' opposing points of view until, at the end, the narratives converge with a shocking immediacy. And in 'The Magus,' the story of a young Englishman who gets caught up in the frightening dramatic fantasies of a strangely powerful man on an Aegean island, he again wrote an ending of self-conscious ambiguity, leaving the hero's future an open puzzle that readers are challenged to solve for themselves. 'Fowles's success in the marketplace derives from his great skill as a storyteller,' wrote Ellen Pifer in the 'Dictionary of Literary Biography.' 'Remarkably, he manages to sustain such effects at the same time that, as an experimental writer testing conventional assumptions about reality, he examines and parodies the traditional devices of storytelling.' For whatever reason - he always said it was because he was mistrusted by the British literary establishment that he had rejected - Mr. Fowles was always far more celebrated in the United States than in his native country. In America, his books became mainstays of college literature courses while achieving that rare combination: admiring reviews from serious-minded critics and best-seller status in the stores. Not so in England, at least not all the time. 'In many ways, I have been put in exile in this country,' he once said. He lived a quiet, even reclusive life in Lyme Regis, in an old Dorset house that overlooked the English Channel. He threw himself into his writing and the natural world, and developed a reputation as a bit of a grouch, a writer who shunned the public eye and did not look kindly on the tendency of readers to track him down and invite him for a drink. 'I know I have a reputation as a cantankerous man of letters and I don't try and play it down,' he told The Guardian newspaper in 2003. 'A writer, more-or-less living on his own, will be persecuted by his readers. They want to see you and talk to you. And they don't realize that very often that gets on one's nerves.' At the height of his success in the 1960's and 70's, Mr. Fowles was regarded by many as the English-speaking world's greatest contemporary writer and its first postmodern novelist, but his work became less fashionable in his later years. He published his last novel, 'A Maggot,' in 1985, although he told an interviewer in 1998 that he was working on another one. John Fowles was born in Leigh-on-Sea, Essex, England, on March 31, 1926, the son of Robert J. Fowles, a prosperous cigar merchant, and his wife, the former Gladys Richards, a schoolteacher. In an autobiographical essay, he described his hometown as a place 'dominated by conformism - the pursuit of respectability.' Although, to all appearances, he thrived in the environment - 'I was given some facility with masks' was how he put it - his early years left him with a lifelong distaste for following the herd. He felt alienated from his parents, saying 'I seemed to come from nowhere.' 'No one in my family had any literary interests or skills at all,' he once said. 'When I was a young boy my parents were always laughing at 'the fellow who couldn't draw' - Picasso. Their crassness horrified me.' Similarly, he recoiled from his role as head boy at Bedford School, his prep school. 'By the age of 18, I had had dominion over 600 boys, and learned all about power, hierarchy and the manipulation of law,' he wrote. 'Ever since I have had a violent hatred of leaders, organizers, bosses; of anyone who thinks it good to get or have arbitrary power over other people.' After a brief, compulsory period of military service, which he spent as a lieutenant in the Royal Marines and which he loathed, he studied French at New College, Oxford, immersing himself in the literature of the French existentialists. He earned his bachelor's degree in 1950, and then took jobs teaching English in France, Greece and London. In Greece, he met his first wife, Elizabeth, and also found the inspiration for 'The Magus.' Mr. Fowles, who started writing in his early 20's, wrote: 'I began because I have always found it easy to fantasize, to invent situations and plausible dialogue; partly because I have always rejected so much of the outward life I have had to lead. In one way at least teaching is a good profession for a writer, because it gives him a sharp sense of futility.' His earliest literary efforts were marked by false starts and stops, as he discarded many manuscripts that he thought weren't good enough for publication. He honed his craft by studying and imitating writers he admired, including Flaubert, D. H. Lawrence, Defoe and Hemingway. In 1963, he began work on 'The Magus,' his second novel, and published his first, 'The Collector.' 'The Collector,' whose point, Mr. Fowles said in an interview, was to 'show that our world is sick,' was an instant success. The story of Frederick Clegg, a sad-sack clerk and butterfly collector who decides to add a beautiful young woman, Miranda Grey, to his collection by locking her in his basement, the novel was praised for its subtle examination of dueling notions of free will, even as its subject matter chilled reviewers. 'The slow degrees' by which Clegg destroys Miranda, wrote Alan Pryce-Jones in The New York Times Book Review, 'make one of the most agonizing chapters in the whole literary history of obsession.' 'The Collector' became a 1965 film directed by William Wyler, starring Terence Stamp as Clegg and Samantha Eggar as Miranda. 'The Magus' was more complicated and opaque than its predecessor, leading its hero, an English schoolteacher named Nicholas Urfe, to a remote Greek island and putting him at the mercy of the elaborate fantasies, or 'godgame,' concocted by the title character, the rich, mysterious Maurice Conchis. ('Magus' means sorcerer or conjurer.) There, Urfe begins to doubt what is real and what is fiction, and is forced, agonizingly, to question who he is. Some critics complained that the novel was an overcomplicated pretension. But others took its part with passion, saying Mr. Fowles had more than succeeded in using the novel to illustrate the existential dilemma of life: that people must decide for themselves how to act in the face of absurd, unpredictable circumstances. Mr. Fowles wrote the screenplay for the film version of 'The Magus,' starring Anthony Quinn and Michael Caine, but considered it a disaster and vowed never to write another script from his work. He was best known for his next novel, 'The French Lieutenant's Woman' (1969), which Karel Reisz made into a successful movie in 1981, starring Meryl Streep and Jeremy Irons, from a screenplay by Harold Pinter. The book, set in 1867, tells the story of Charles Smithson, a gentleman geologist (as was Mr. Fowles) in Lyme Regis and a budding adherent of the theories of Charles Darwin. Engaged to a young woman of his class and station, Smithson finds himself drawn to a willful governess who has been wooed and abandoned by a French sailor. On the surface, the story seems classically Victorian, with elaborate 19th-century language, highly wrought plot twists and extensive epigraphs introducing each chapter. But the book's narrator is straight from the 1960's, and it is his all-knowing voice - constantly interrupting the narrative with mini-lectures on extra-textual subjects, freely discussing people who haven't been born and historical events that haven't yet happened - that makes 'The French Lieutenant's Woman' so unusual. Along the way, the reader is treated to the narrator's - that is, Mr. Fowles's - views on Victorian England, Freud, Marx, the dilemma of the modern novelist and 20th-century existential despair. Mr. Fowles was also celebrated for 'A Maggot,' a book heavy with symbolism, ambiguity and multifaceted meanings. The first part tells the story of a group of mysterious travelers who set out on a journey on horseback in 1736; the rest concerns the Rashomon-like testimony of the survivors after one of the group, a manservant, is found hanged, and another, a nobleman, goes missing. Other fiction included 'Mantissa' (1982), an extended dialogue between a successful author and his difficult psychiatrist-cum-muse; 'The Ebony Tower' (1974), a collection of five linked stories that included Mr. Fowles's translation of the Celtic medieval romance 'Eliduc'; and 'Daniel Martin' (1977), an autobiographical work about a middle-aged British writer re-examining his life, in which Mr. Fowles again blurred the line between the narrator and his fictional creation. Among Mr. Fowles's numerous works of nonfiction were 'The Aristos: A Self-Portrait in Ideas' (1964), a philosophical examination of life in the 20th century modeled on Pascal's 'Pens�es'; 'The Enigma of Stonehenge' (1980); and 'A Short History of Lyme Regis' (1983). His most recent book was 'Wormholes' (1998), an anthology of writing that included journal entries, literary essays, and musings on Englishness, religion, the environment and a host of other topics. Mr. Fowles was married twice. His first wife, Elizabeth, whom he married in 1956, died of cancer in 1990. He is survived by his second wife, Sarah. As much as it frustrated some of his readers, Mr. Fowles always believed he had done the right thing by leaving the endings of his most celebrated novels open-ended. But he was not above bending his own rules when the occasion called for it. He once told an interviewer that he had received a sweet letter from a cancer patient in New York who wanted very much to believe that Nicholas, the protagonist of 'The Magus,' was reunited with his girlfriend at the end of the book - a point Mr. Fowles had deliberately left ambiguous. 'Yes, of course they were,' Mr. Fowles replied. By chance, he had received a letter the same day from an irate reader taking issue with the ending of 'The Magus.' 'Why can't you say what you mean, and for God's sake, what happened in the end?' the reader asked. Mr. Fowles said he found the letter 'horrid' but had the last laugh, supplying an alternative ending to punish the correspondent: 'They never saw each other again.'

Subject: Comparisons of Health Care From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 05:06:11 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://krugman.page.nytimes.com/ November 7, 2005 Notes on International Comparisons of Health Care Some readers may want to follow up on my Nov. 7 column on international comparisons of health care. Here are a few useful links. Trends in employer-based insurance: The underlying data come from the Census. Here is a shorter, useful summary of the data.(pdf). International comparisons of health spending: The Factbook of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an international research organization supported by member governments, is available at www.sourceoecd.org. It provides comparative data on many economic, environmental, and social trends. Data on health care spending per capita are measured using “purchasing power parities” – that is, they are adjusted for international differences in the cost of living. Two things stand out. First, the United States is off the scale in terms of the amount we spend per person. Second, the U.S. system is unique in its reliance on private spending. Quality of Health Care: “Taking the Pulse of Health Care Systems: Experiences of Patients With Health Problems in Six Countries(pdf),” is a new study published in Health Affairs. Check out Exhibits 6 and 7, in particular. Taiwan: A very interesting study, also online, is “Does Universal Health Insurance Make Health Care Unaffordable? Lessons from Taiwan(pdf).” Since it’s predictable that some of the usual suspects will attack my column by citing newspaper articles about runaway costs in Taiwan, it’s particularly interesting to read the paper’s discussion of how “political theater” – overstating the quite mild financial difficulties of the Taiwanese system – was used to sell a modest increase in premiums.

Subject: On 'Pride, Prejudice, Insurance' From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 05:04:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://krugman.page.nytimes.com/ November 7, 2005 On 'Pride, Prejudice, Insurance' Lynne Koester, Yuba City, Calif.: Would it be feasible to convert Medicare into a national health insurance system? I realize that its present per-patient cost is high because of the age of those who qualify for Medicare, but if the pool were enlarged by including most all Americans, wouldn't the per-patient cost decrease? By eliminating the profits built into private health insurance companies, we could save even more money. Plus, when ill, many uninsured people presently use a hospital emergency room because they do not have medical insurance, but if they were covered by a national health insurance, they could be treated in a doctor's office, which is less costly than a hospital. Paul Krugman: Yes, indeed. One way to implement national health care would simply be to expand Medicare to everyone. Of course, doing that would require additional funds, probably in the form of an increase in the payroll tax. And that would elicit howls from the right. But the apparent rise in tax rates would be an illusion: it would simply substitute an explicit tax for the implicit tax that companies and workers pay in the form of insurance premiums. Given international experience, I have no doubt that overall spending on health care would actually fall, and that job creation would actually rise, after the supposed tax increase. It's a simple solution, building on a program that we already know works. It would make the vast majority of Americans better off. And it's considered a complete non-starter politically. Now why is that?

Subject: President Bush's Walkabout From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 04:41:22 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/opinion/08tue1.html?ex=1289106000&en=01ff163e6b5f873b&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 8, 2005 President Bush's Walkabout After President Bush's disastrous visit to Latin America, it's unnerving to realize that his presidency still has more than three years to run. An administration with no agenda and no competence would be hard enough to live with on the domestic front. But the rest of the world simply can't afford an American government this bad for that long. In Argentina, Mr. Bush, who prides himself on his ability to relate to world leaders face to face, could barely summon the energy to chat with the 33 other leaders there, almost all of whom would be considered friendly to the United States under normal circumstances. He and his delegation failed to get even a minimally face-saving outcome at the collapsed trade talks and allowed a loudmouthed opportunist like the president of Venezuela to steal the show. It's amazing to remember that when Mr. Bush first ran for president, he bragged about his understanding of Latin America, his ability to speak Spanish and his friendship with Mexico. But he also made fun of Al Gore for believing that nation-building was a job for the United States military. The White House is in an uproar over the future of Karl Rove, the president's political adviser, and spinning off rumors that some top cabinet members may be asked to walk the plank. Mr. Bush could certainly afford to replace some of his top advisers. But the central problem is not Karl Rove or Treasury Secretary John Snow or even Donald Rumsfeld, the defense secretary. It is President Bush himself. Second terms may be difficult, but the chief executive still has the power to shape what happens. Ronald Reagan managed to turn his messy second term around and deliver - in great part through his own powers of leadership - a historic series of agreements with Mikhail Gorbachev that led to the peaceful dismantling of the Soviet empire. Mr. Bush has never demonstrated the capacity for such a comeback. Nevertheless, every American has a stake in hoping that he can surprise us. The place to begin is with Dick Cheney, the dark force behind many of the administration's most disastrous policies, like the Iraq invasion and the stubborn resistance to energy conservation. Right now, the vice president is devoting himself to beating back Congressional legislation that would prohibit the torture of prisoners. This is truly a remarkable set of priorities: his former chief aide was indicted, Mr. Cheney's back is against the wall, and he's declared war on the Geneva Conventions. Mr. Bush cannot fire Mr. Cheney, but he could do what other presidents have done to vice presidents: keep him too busy attending funerals and acting as the chairman of studies to do more harm. Mr. Bush would still have to turn his administration around, but it would at least send a signal to the nation and the world that he was in charge, and the next three years might not be as dreadful as they threaten to be right now.

Subject: While Paris Burns From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 04:38:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/opinion/08tue2.html?ex=1289106000&en=0d7db838f1d05775&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 8, 2005 While Paris Burns As shocking as the riots that have swept through the depressed outskirts of Paris and other French cities over the past two weeks has been the flailing response of President Jacques Chirac and his ministers. They appear to have no idea what to do and to whom to talk. Their floundering illustrates the deeper problems that underlie the current unrest: a failed approach to absorbing immigrants into society, an out-of-touch political elite and ministers more interested in a presidential election that's still nearly two years away than in coming up with answers for today's literally burning problems. There can be no condoning the rioting, which seems to have grown both in extent and violence since it erupted on Oct. 27. In hundreds of towns and neighborhoods, French-Arab and French-African youths have burned cars, businesses and public buildings and fought with the police and firefighters. Bystanders have been beaten, and one has now died. This wave of criminal violence is likely to reinforce prejudices against France's five million to six million Muslims. It has already brought out shameful name-calling demagogy from Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, a leading presidential candidate. That is a particular shame because he's been one of the few French politicians willing to acknowledge that the republic's centuries-old ideal of integration, which ignores the ethnic and religious communities' existence and special problems, hasn't worked for years. Now Mr. Sarkozy, the one government leader who has dared to advocate American-style affirmative action methods, has chosen to inflame a dangerous situation and immolate his own hard-won credibility in immigrant communities. The other leading government voice has come from the aloof and aristocratic prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, Mr. Sarkozy's chief rival for the presidential nomination of the governing center-right. Although Mr. Villepin seems unwilling to break from the failed integration model, he at least seems to recognize the importance of cultivating contacts with credible leaders in the immigrant suburbs. He also talks about addressing the pressure-cooker conditions of the seething outer suburbs, including crime-ridden housing projects, scandalously high unemployment rates and toxic tension between the police and the predominantly Arab and African residents. Unfortunately, he seems unprepared to offer any specifics at this time. Meanwhile, the fires continue to burn.

Subject: We Endorse From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 08, 2005 at 04:31:08 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.laweekly.com/ink/05/50/news-endorsements.php LA Weekly: News: We Endorse: State ballot measures. Proposition 73: Abortion notification. NO: If your teenage daughter gets pregnant and is about to have an abortion, don’t you want her to tell you? Don’t you want the physician who is going to perform the procedure to tell you, at least 48 hours before it takes place? Of course you do. But let’s take it further. You don’t want her to get pregnant in the first place. You don’t want her having sex. You and she talk about this kind of thing, and that’s great. So shouldn’t you vote for the “Parent’s Right to Know and Child Protection Initiative”? No, because you and your daughter don’t need it. But girls who can’t talk to their parents, for whatever reason, still need to be able to talk to their doctors about their bodies without worrying that their family will find out and pressure them into bearing a child against their will. Good parent-child communication is essential, but it can’t be legislated. Proposition 74: Teacher probationary period, also known as tenure. NO: A probationary period for a new hire might not be a bad idea, just to make sure the employee didn’t forget to include something important on the résumé, like “raving lunatic.” Thirty days sounds about right. Unless you’re a teacher, in which case we’ll make it — whoa! Two years! Okay, they’re with kids every day, so let’s play it safe. But to encourage more good people to become teachers, maybe we should change it to — yikes! Five years of job insecurity? That’s what Proposition 74 would do, because Governor Schwarzenegger knows that when schools are underfunded and overcrowded, it’s got to be because we just make it too easy for people to become underpaid teachers. He’s wrong on this one, just like he is with the other ballot initiatives he’s pushing. Proposition 75: Public worker union dues restrictions. NO: In 1998 Californians rejected a ballot measure that would have blocked unions from spending an employee’s dues money to campaign for candidates or lobby for legislation that labor leaders believe is important. Now we have this one, which is pretty much the same except that it applies only to public employees. These workers currently can opt out of paying their union to do political lobbying and campaigning. Under Proposition 75, they would have to opt in — giving the edge to corporations that do not, after all, give their shareholders the power to opt out of having their investment used for anti-labor lobbying. Proposition 76: State budget reform. NO: The state budget is a mess. Proposition 76 would make it messier, by giving the governor extraordinary executive powers to cut spending, even under a budget that is already approved and signed into law. And the Legislature would be unable to stop him. It would also permit the governor to roll back Proposition 98, a 1988 voter-approved constitutional amendment that guarantees a spending floor for public schools. This isn’t the way to go. Proposition 77: Redistricting. NO: The Democrats and the Republicans divvy legislative and congressional seats between them to guarantee each other safe territory at election time. Only a handful of districts are ever really up for grabs, meaning the real decisions are made not by the full electorate in the general election, but by primary voters when they choose their nominee. Or even earlier, when party bosses anoint their candidates. In addition to the lack of choice, voters get districts drawn in the shapes of various circus animals. So why not break up this insiders’ game by giving line-drawing duties to a panel of nonpartisan, pure-as-the-driven-snow superheroes, also known as retired judges? Several reasons. Under this plan, the district boundaries would be set only after national parties spend millions, perhaps billions, to persuade voters to adopt (or reject) a proposal for district lines. Then the court hearings. Then back to the judges to try again, even though they already submitted their best effort. Some repair work is needed on districting, but this isn’t it. Back to the drawing board. Proposition 78: Prescription drug discounts, pharmaceutical industry version. NO: Hey! This would allow drug companies to give some people discounts on costly prescription drugs, if they felt like it! That would be so very nice of them! The only purpose of this proposition is to cancel more generous Proposition 79. Proposition 79: Prescription drug discounts, consumer version. YES: Like 78, this one gives California the clout to negotiate deep drug discounts with the big pharmaceutical companies. The difference is that this one reaches far more low-income people who need prescription drugs. It also carries an enforcement stick that in effect locks drug companies out of the discount program if they don’t come through with the best prices. Proposition 80: Electricity re-regulation. YES: This would finally throw in the towel on the disaster that was the state Legislature’s 1996 energy deregulation program. You know — rolling blackouts, a sudden scarcity of power. There would be some negative consequences, like limiting the options that many institutional electricity purchasers still have when deciding when to buy and how much to pay. But consumers would once again be protected from wild market fluctuations. The measure also requires major steps forward on renewable energy programs.

Subject: High Price of US Medicines From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 11:41:27 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: October, 2005 The Myth of Foreign Free Riders and the High Price of US Medicines British Medical Journal The United States government is engaged in a campaign to characterise other industrialised countries as free riding on high US pharmaceutical prices and innovation in new drugs.... The campaign, strongly backed by the pharmaceutical industry, seems to have started in the late 1990s as a response to a grass roots movement started by senior citizens against the high prices of essential prescription drugs. This issue was the most prominent one for both parties in the 2000 elections and has since been fuelled by a series of independent reports documenting that US drug prices are much higher than those in other affluent countries.... We can find no convincing evidence to support the view that the lower prices in affluent countries outside the United States do not pay for research and development costs. The latest report from the UK Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme documents that drug companies in the United Kingdom invest proportionately more of their revenues from domestic sales in research and development than do companies in the US. Prices in the UK are much lower than those in the US yet profits remain robust. Companies in other countries also fully recover their research and development costs, maintain high profits, and sell drugs at substantially lower prices than in the US....

Subject: Myth of Foreign Free Riders From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 11:37:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/extract/331/7522/958 The United States government is engaged in a campaign to characterise other industrialised countries as free riding on high US pharmaceutical prices and innovation in new drugs. This campaign is based on the argument that lower prices imposed by price controls in other affluent countries do not pay for research and development costs, so that Americans have to pay the research costs through higher prices in order to keep supplying the world with new drugs. Supporters of the campaign have characterised the situation as a foreign rip-off.3 We can find no evidence to support these and related claims, and we present evidence to the contrary. Furthermore, we explain why the claims themselves contradict the economic nature of the pharmaceutical industry.

Subject: May Not Get a Hollywood Ending From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 09:03:08 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/07/national/07arnold.html November 7, 2005 This Time, Schwarzenegger May Not Get a Hollywood Ending By JOHN M. BRODER LOS ANGELES - A startling change has come over California's larger-than-life governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, as voters prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday for an unpopular statewide election. His television advertisements have taken on an uncharacteristic tone of humility. And ordinary people, no longer awed by his Olympian persona, are openly challenging him in public. The four ballot measures Mr. Schwarzenegger supports are trailing in the polls, and his re-election prospects next year appear, for now, to be dimming. His approval ratings are in a tailspin, and his stage presence has been drained of much of its bombast and bluster. At a televised forum here last week, with audience members picked to represent a cross-section of voters, several questioners interrupted Mr. Schwarzenegger and accused him of distorting facts to sell the four ballot measures, which are among eight up for a vote in an election ordered specially by the governor. Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, was explaining Proposition 75, a measure he favors that would require public-employee unions to receive the written permission of members before their dues could be used for political campaigns. Democrats and union leaders who oppose the proposition have called it a naked attempt to silence the unions' political voice. The governor says the proposition is about protecting workers' paychecks. An audience member who gave his name as Chris Robeson and said he was a health care worker from Camarillo angrily cut the governor off. 'That's just Rovian spin,' Mr. Robeson said, referring to Karl Rove, the White House political guru. 'That's fraudulent.' Such bald impertinence would have been unthinkable a year ago, when Mr. Schwarzenegger was riding high in the polls and rolling over the opposition. But political missteps and unending battles with Democrats in the California Legislature and the public-employee unions have taken their toll. The governor seems chastened for the first time in his public life. He no longer refers to members of the Legislature as 'girlie men' and does not talk about 'kicking their butts' anymore. He does not even appear in many of the advertisements for his initiatives, letting others speak for him. This weekend, as Mr. Schwarzenegger toured Southern California on a bus in a final pitch, he was hounded by opponents, including the actors Warren Beatty and Annette Bening, in a bus dubbed the Truth Squad. One television advertisement in which Mr. Schwarzenegger does appear is particularly startling to those who have followed the arc of his career from champion bodybuilder to action movie star to Governator. He looks straight into the camera and reminds voters that they elected him to clean up state government and put California back on track. Then he says: 'I've had a lot to learn, and sometimes I learned the hard way. But my heart is in this, and I want to do right by you.' His humble approach appears intended to assuage election-weary voters who will go to the polls on Tuesday for the third time in 20 months to vote on proposed laws and constitutional amendments, doing for themselves what in most democracies is done by elected representatives. In addition to deciding on the union dues measure, voters will determine who will draw legislative district boundaries, how much budget power to give the governor and whether to enact new rules governing the probationary period for new teachers. Also on the ballot are measures on parental notification for teenagers seeking abortions and the regulation of electric utilities, and competing measures for discounts on prescription drugs. The special election is a symptom of the partisan gridlock in Sacramento, where the Republican governor and the Democrat-dominated Legislature and its union backers agree on almost nothing. The campaign has generated more than $225 million in campaign donations, most of them from unions and drug companies seeking to kill measures they disapprove of. The governor's campaign is financed chiefly by business interests, including real estate developers, technology executives, auto dealers, agribusinesses, insurance companies and Wal-Mart heirs. The airwaves have been saturated with advertising for weeks. Mr. Schwarzenegger has been stumping the state nonstop for the past month, playing largely to small partisan crowds. National political figures, including Senators John McCain of Arizona and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, have visited the state to urge voters to support or oppose the ballot measures. Mr. McCain accompanied Mr. Schwarzenegger on part of his bus tour on Saturday, speaking out in favor of Proposition 77, a plan to transfer redistricting power from the Legislature to a panel of retired judges. The total price of the election, including the roughly $50 million cost of conducting the vote itself, is likely to top $300 million, an amount that 13 years ago could have financed an entire national presidential campaign. Despite - or perhaps because of - the ceaseless advertising, voters appear only mildly interested in the election and inclined to defeat most if not all of the measures, according to polls released last week. Officials estimate that about 40 percent of eligible voters will show up. 'Have we got ballot fatigue?' asked Leon E. Panetta, the former Democratic California congressman and White House chief of staff to President Bill Clinton. 'No kidding.' This campaign is Mr. Schwarzenegger's third statewide election since he won office in a wild recall election two years ago. He is following much the same script as in previous campaigns, a Hollywood-style melodrama pitting the self-styled people's governor against what he calls the union bosses and special interests. He was successful the first time out, in March 2004, winning voter approval of two measures to address the state's budget deficit. A year ago, with the help of tens of millions of dollars from high-technology entrepreneurs, Hollywood personalities and medical research groups, Mr. Schwarzenegger was able to win approval for a $3 billion stem cell research institute. In fall 2004 he also helped persuade voters to reject two initiatives that would have expanded Indian gambling in California and one to soften the state's tough three-strikes sentencing law. But this time the governor's pitch does not appear to be working. All four initiatives Mr. Schwarzenegger has endorsed are trailing in public polls, although one is fairly close: a measure to increase to five years from two the probationary period before public school teachers can win union-protected tenure. A poll by the independent Field Research Corporation of San Francisco found that the governor's call for a special election made voters less inclined to vote for his re-election next year. As of late October, only 36 percent of registered voters said they would support his re-election, the Field poll found. Fifty-five percent said they would not vote for him. The governor's aides acknowledge that his popularity has plummeted in the past year, but they attribute it to a relentless drumbeat of negative advertising financed by his union foes. 'A $120 million smear campaign is going to have an impact against anybody,' said Todd Harris, a senior Schwarzenegger adviser. He said the attacks would not deter Mr. Schwarzenegger from seeking re-election, nor would the governor be swayed if his initiatives were defeated on Tuesday. 'The worse we do, the more he'll want to run again,' Mr. Harris said. 'This is not a guy who goes out when he's down.'

Subject: Presinator! From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 16:00:22 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: He is fighting gerrymandering type policies and giving power back to the people, he is fighting uncompetitive unions, wanting parents to be involved in teens pregnancies - this is a great guy. I thought he would really cave in to the wrong side - instead he wants to limit gambling and increase stem cell research - impressive. If I was in Cali, he would get my vote. The voters want gubbment to give them money and promises - even if those promises are not realistic - Governator may not get re - elected - but at least he tried. A typical lying politician would promise the moon while his people got poorer. Governator is trying to reform things to make the people stronger. We need someone like him for President that will make hard decisions but will ultimately help our nation long term - this lying politicians that make short term promises is sending us into oblivion.

Subject: The Debate Is More Than Cosmetic From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 06:52:02 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://select.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/nyregion/03matters.html November 3, 2005 The Debate Is More Than Cosmetic By JOYCE PURNICK BASTA! Enough!' urges an e-mailing friend, who is being granted anonymity because she shared her plaint in a personal message. (Her identity will, however, be disclosed to an editor upon request.) This friend went on to recommend an end to the latest journalism beat (Babes in Medialand), and a return to business as usual - or as it used to be usual. Agreed. But first, a moment or two about women in this society. We are messed up, America. Still. We don't have it right yet. If women disagree in public, they are having a 'catfight.' Still. If a sharp woman makes provocative observations, the guys in power had to put her up to it. Still. Small wonder that the only female president so far is a fictional television character - on ABC's 'Commander in Chief.' President Mackenzie (Mac) Allen (Geena Davis) is just terrific. She is so terrific, in fact - inspiring, effective and clever - that she is purely unbelievable. In this week's episode alone, she visited sympathetically with homeless hurricane victims and then saved the East Coast from an oil spill by outmaneuvering her nemesis, the dastardly speaker of the House (played with oleaginous aplomb by Donald Sutherland). Of course she accomplished all of this looking ever-ready for a fashion shoot, and without once expressing doubt or raising her voice - not even when her daughter stalked away from the dinner table. Yes, it's just television. But at least President Jed Bartlet on 'The West Wing' has a temper and makes mistakes. If a woman were ever to be president, wouldn't she have to be as political, as Machiavellian, as egocentric as men in politics because that is the nature of the business? Bet on it. We have come far, yes. The secretary of state is a woman, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton might run for president, more women have shattered the glass ceiling in business and politics, and a Harriet E. Miers can fail as a nominee to the Supreme Court on the merits. Well, the president withdrew her name because of opposition from his conservative base, but the weightier conservative critics objected to Ms. Miers's lack of judicial experience and legal depth. Yet comics disparaged her appearance. Her scholarship and uncritical devotion to her boss were fair game, but her hair and clothes? As if Antonin Scalia wears Hugo Boss. The nonsense has already begun in the coming race for United States Senate between Mrs. Clinton and Jeanine F. Pirro, the district attorney of Westchester seeking the Republican nomination. The mere prospect of that matchup has already generated such hackneyed tabloid phrases as 'glamorous catfight' and 'war of the roses.' Ms. Pirro was accused of 'baring her claws,' described in The New York Sun as the candidate 'From Westchester, With Eyeliner.' SOCIETY'S problem is so deep that some women play right into it. They see Paris Hilton as a role model. Nothing at all wrong with adult dress-up, if it pleases the women doing the dressing up. There is everything wrong with it if they feel compelled to fit a mold cast by the creators of 'Desperate Housewives.' If you doubt this, ask a follow-up question: Is there room on cable TV for another super-slim woman with artificially straightened blond hair? They must do that to themselves because they think they have to. And yes, some women still define themselves through men, and will argue that men seek out influential women, too. As if there are enough powerful women to make that a significant issue. And when it is relevant - it should be an issue. Enough indeed. American women do not belong to a distinct species. They work hard because they want to or have to. Or they do not work hard. Some succeed. Some fail. Some are phonies. Some are not. Some lie and cheat. Some do not. Some are good people. Some are not. Plenty of women go through life doing a job or raising a family or both, uncelebrated. Plenty are serious about themselves, value self-respect and will not let themselves be defined by their spouses, their companions, their eyeliner or their resemblance to Nicollette Sheridan. The suspicion here is that most women are like that and not like the cartoon characters of the disparaging headlines. It's about time the culture figured that out. It's about time more women did, too. O.K., friend. On to other matters.

Subject: Quiet Divorces Affect Children's Paths From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 05:55:25 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/05/national/05divorce.html November 5, 2005 Poll Says Even Quiet Divorces Affect Children's Paths By TAMAR LEWIN Even in a 'good divorce,' in which parents amicably minimize their conflicts, children of divorce inhabit a more difficult emotional landscape than those in intact families, according to a new survey of 1,500 people ages 18 t0 35. 'All the happy talk about divorce is designed to reassure parents,' Elizabeth Marquardt, author of the study, described in her new book, 'Between Two Worlds.' 'But it's not the truth for children. Even a good divorce restructures children's childhoods and leaves them traveling between two distinct worlds. It becomes their job, not their parents', to make sense of those two worlds.' Ms. Marquardt, 35, is an affiliate scholar with the Institute for American Values, a nonpartisan advocacy group that strongly emphasizes marriage. She is, she says, the first child of divorce to publish a broad study on how divorce affects children. It is no small question. The nation's divorce rate reached record levels in the late 1970's and early 1980's, and Norval D. Glenn, a professor of sociology at the University of Texas, said that about a quarter of all Americans age 18 to 35 were not yet 16 when they experienced their parents' divorce. There are no reliable national statistics on divorce, but most experts say that even with divorce rates edging down, about three-quarters of a million American children see their parents divorce each year. The new survey, based on the first nationally representative sample of young adults, highlights the many ways that divorce shapes the emotional tenor of childhood. For example, those who grew up in divorced families were far more likely than those with married parents to say that they felt like a different person with each parent, that they sometimes felt like outsiders in their own home and that they had been alone a lot as a child. Those with married parents, however, were far more likely to say that children were at the center of their family and that they generally felt emotionally safe. In the study, all those from divorced families had experienced their parents' divorce before age 14 and had maintained contact with both parents. Most of the time, Ms. Marquardt maintains, children with married parents need not concern themselves with their parents' thoughts and feelings while those with divorced parents must be more vigilant, more attuned to their parents' moods and expectations, more careful to adjust to the habits of the parent they are with - and more concerned about looking or acting like the other parent. The debate over how divorce affects children has long been polarized, with many researchers focusing on statistical data emphasizing that most children with divorced parents do fine in life and many clinicians emphasizing the emotional distress that many of the children feel. And given the political overtones, many scholars who study family diversity have been concerned that focusing on how divorce hurts children could lead to efforts to restrict the availability of divorce. 'Life is filled with trade-offs, and I worry that it's so easy to slip from descriptions of problems to one-size-fits-all prescription,' said Stephanie Coontz, a historian at Evergreen State College in Washington and the author of 'Marriage, a History.' 'There will always be couples who need divorces.' Ms. Coontz and others acknowledge the growing consensus that most children with divorced parents grow into successful adults - but say that the process is difficult for them. 'The key is to separate pain from pathology, ' said Robert Emery, director of the Center for Children, Families and the Law at the University of Virginia. 'While a great many young people from divorced families report painful memories and ongoing troubles regarding family relationships, the majority are psychologically normal.' Mr. Emery's own smaller, local studies have had findings similar to Ms. Marquardt's. About half of those from divorced families agreed that they had a 'harder childhood that most people,' compared with 14 percent from married families. 'The effects of divorce may not seem so important in a hard-nosed statistical analysis of outcomes, but in a subjective way, they may be very important,' said Andrew Cherlin, a family demographer at Johns Hopkins University. 'Many adults with very successful lives still carry the residual trauma of their parents' breakup.' Ms. Marquardt's book paints a detailed picture of the kinds of tensions children live with, using examples both from her own life - her parents separated when she was 2 - and from interviews with 70 other young adults. A chapter on secrets begins with her memory of being 10 years old, at the kitchen table with her father and not knowing what to answer when he asked, 'Is Paul living with you and your mother?' She recounts her efforts to remember that in her mother's house, it was all right to say 'screwed up' while in her father's she would be corrected to 'messed up.' The lonely task of reconciling two worlds is a constant theme. One young woman in the book describes moving between her mother and stepfather's home, where thrift was a high value, and her father and stepmother's, where money flowed freely and abundance was valued. She took her mother's rules so seriously that even at meals with her father, she ate far more than she wanted, getting a stomachache in her effort to make sure there would be no leftovers to throw out. She never told her parents about her inner conflict, for fear that it would be rude. 'Children of divorce feel less protected by their parents, and they're much less likely to go to their parents for comfort when they are young, or for emotional support when they are older,' Ms. Marquardt said. 'They often feel a need to protect their mother emotionally.' 'I think we need to recognize these things,' she said. 'In one women's magazine, a mother wrote that she'd told her 7-year old-daughter she didn't need protecting, but that her daughter just does it anyway. Saying those words isn't helpful to the daughter. It just makes her look silly, like it's her problem that she feels she has to protect her mom.'

Subject: Riots Worsen in French Cities From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 05:53:19 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/07/international/europe/07france.html November 7, 2005 10 Officers Shot as Riots Worsen in French Cities By CRAIG S. SMITH PARIS, Monday - Rioters fired shotguns at the police in a working-class suburb of Paris on Sunday, wounding 10 officers as the country's fast-spreading urban unrest escalated dangerously. Just hours earlier, President Jacques Chirac called an emergency meeting of top security officials and promised increased police pressure to confront the violence. 'The republic is completely determined to be stronger than those who want to sow violence or fear,' Mr. Chirac said at a news conference in the courtyard of Élysée Palace after meeting with his internal security council. 'The last word must be from the law.' But the violence, which has become one of the most serious challenges to governmental authority here in nearly 40 years, showed no sign of abating, and Sunday was the first day that police officers had been wounded by gunfire in the unrest. More than 3,300 vehicles have been destroyed, along with dozens of public buildings and private businesses, since the violence began. 'This is just the beginning,' said Moussa Diallo, 22, a tall, unemployed French-African man in Clichy-sous-Bois, the working-class Parisian suburb where the violence started Oct. 27. 'It's not going to end until there are two policemen dead.' He was referring to the two teenage boys, one of Mauritanian origin and the other of Tunisian origin, whose accidental deaths while hiding from the police touched off the unrest, reflecting longstanding anger among many immigrant families here over joblessness and discrimination. Mr. Diallo did not say whether he had taken part in the vandalism. On Saturday night alone, the tally in the rioting reached a peak of 1,300 vehicles burned, stretching into the heart of Paris, where 35 vehicles were destroyed, and touching a dozen other cities across the country. Fires were burning in several places on Sunday night and hundreds of youths were reported to have clashed with the police in Grigny, a southern suburb of Paris where the shooting took place. On Saturday night, a car was rammed into the front of a McDonald's restaurant in the town. 'We have 10 policemen that were hit by gunfire in Grigny, and two of them are in the hospital,' Patrick Hamon, a national police spokesman, said Monday morning. He said one of the officers hospitalized had been hit in the neck, the other in the leg, but added that neither wound was considered life-threatening. Rampaging youths have attacked the police and property in cities as far away as Toulouse and Marseille and in the resort towns of Cannes and Nice in the south, the industrial city of Lille in the north and Strasbourg to the east. In Évreux, 60 miles west of Paris, shops, businesses, a post office and two schools were destroyed, along with at least 50 vehicles, in Saturday night's most concentrated attacks. Five police officers and three firefighters were injured in clashes with young rioters, a national police spokesman said. Despite help from thousands of reinforcements, the police appeared powerless to stop the mayhem. As they apply pressure in one area, the attacks slip away to another. On Sunday, a gaping hole exposed a charred wooden staircase of a smoke-blackened building in the historic Marais district of Paris, where a car was set ablaze the previous night. Florent Besnard, 24, said he and a friend had just turned into the quiet Rue Dupuis when they were passed by two running youths. Within seconds, a car farther up the street was engulfed in flames, its windows popping and tires exploding as the fire spread to the building and surrounding vehicles. 'I think it's going to continue,' said Mr. Besnard, who is unemployed. The attack angered people in the neighborhood, which includes the old Jewish quarter and is still a center of Jewish life in the city. 'We escaped from Romania with nothing and came here and worked our fingers to the bone and never asked for anything, never complained,' said Liliane Zump, a woman in her 70's, shaking with fury on the street outside the scarred building. While the arson is more common than in the past, it has become a feature of life in the working-class suburbs, peopled primarily by North African and West African immigrants and their French-born children. Unemployment in the neighborhoods is double and sometimes triple the 10 percent national average, while incomes are about 40 percent lower. While everyone seems to agree that the latest violence was touched off by the deaths of the teenagers last week, the unrest no longer has much to do with the incident. 'It was a good excuse, but it's fun to set cars on fire,' said Mohamed Hammouti, a 15-year-old boy in Clichy-sous-Bois, sitting Sunday outside the gutted remnants of a gymnasium near his home. Like many people interviewed, he denied having participated in the violence. Most people said they sensed that the escalation of the past few days had changed the rules of the game: besides the number of attacks, the level of destruction has grown sharply, with substantial businesses and public buildings going down in flames. Besides the gunfire on Sunday, residents of some high-rise apartment blocks have been throwing steel boccie balls and improvised explosives at national riot police officers patrolling below. In the Parisian suburb of Aubervilliers early Sunday, with smoke hanging in the air and a helicopter humming overhead, a helmeted police officer in a flak jacket carried a soft drink bottle gingerly away from where it had landed near him and his colleagues moments before. The bottle, half-filled with a clear liquid and nails, had failed to explode. Teenagers in neighboring Clichy-sous-Bois said they had seen young men preparing similar devices with acid and aluminum foil. 'They make a huge bang,' said Sofiane Belkalem, 13. The police discovered what they described as a firebomb factory in a building in Évry, south of Paris, in which about 150 bombs were being constructed, a third of them ready to use. Six minors were arrested. Many politicians have warned that the unrest may be coalescing into an organized movement, citing Internet chatter that is urging other poor neighborhoods across France to join in. But no one has emerged to take the lead like Daniel Cohn-Bendit, known as Danny the Red, did during the violent student protests that rocked the French capital in 1968. Though a majority of the youths committing the acts are Muslim, and of African or North African origin, the mayhem has yet to take on any ideological or religious overtones. Youths in the neighborhoods say second-generation Portuguese immigrants and even some children of native French have taken part. In an effort to stop the attacks and distance them from Islam, France's most influential Islamic group issued a religious edict, or fatwa, condemning the violence. 'It is formally forbidden for any Muslim seeking divine grace and satisfaction to participate in any action that blindly hits private or public property or could constitute an attack on someone's life,' the fatwa said, citing the Koran and the teachings of Muhammad. Young people in the poor neighborhoods incubating the violence have consistently complained that police harassment is mainly to blame. 'If you're treated like a dog, you react like a dog,' said Mr. Diallo of Clichy-sous-Bois, whose parents came to France from Mali decades ago. The youths have singled out the French interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, complaining about his zero-tolerance anticrime drive and dismissive talk. (He famously called troublemakers in the poor neighborhoods dregs, using a French slur that offended many people.) But Mr. Sarkozy has not wavered, and after suffering initial isolation within the government, with at least one minister openly criticizing him, the government has closed ranks around him. Mr. Chirac, who is under political and popular pressure to stop the violence, said Sunday that those responsible would face arrest and trial, echoing earlier vows by Mr. Sarkozy. More than 500 people have been arrested, some as young as 13. The government response is as much a test between Mr. Sarkozy and Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, both of whom want to succeed Mr. Chirac as president, as it is a test between the government and disaffected youths. Mr. Villepin, a former foreign minister, has focused on a more diplomatic approach, consulting widely with community leaders and young second-generation immigrants to come up with a promised 'action plan' that he said would address frustrations in the underprivileged neighborhoods. He has released no details of the plan. If the damage escalates and sympathy for the rioters begins to fray, Mr. Sarkozy could well emerge the politically stronger of the two.

Subject: 1 1 1 1 Can Equal Less Than 4 From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 05:46:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/business/yourmoney/06stra.html November 6, 2005 How 1 1 1 1 Can Equal Less Than 4 By MARK HULBERT THE recent decision of the Cendant Corporation to break itself into four companies reflects an underlying truth about wide-ranging conglomerates: they are sometimes fashionable on Wall Street, but they rarely make much investment sense over the long term. In most cases, in fact, a widely diversified company would be worth more if its distinct units operated as separate publicly traded companies. Last month, Cendant's directors bet that this would the case for their conglomerate. They announced that they would break it into four publicly traded companies - each a pure play on just one type of business: real estate brokerage, online travel services, lodging and car rentals. The board said the break-up was needed in order to unlock the four units' inherent value. This reasoning is in line with that of numerous studies, which have concluded that conglomerates are worth less than the sum of their parts. Many of the studies trace back to the work of the late James Tobin, the 1981 Nobel laureate in economics, and particularly to Tobin's Q ratio, the valuation measure he made famous. A company's Q ratio is its total market capitalization divided by the replacement cost of its total assets. Companies with relatively high Q ratios are those that investors see as poised for faster growth. While a high ratio is often regarded as an investor vote of confidence in management, a low ratio is seen as a thumbs down. Widely diversified companies, on average, have lower Q ratios than those of more narrowly focused businesses - a phenomenon called the diversification discount. Although the long-term overall odds may be against conglomerates, some can be worth more than the sum of their parts. That is almost certainly the case for Berkshire Hathaway, run by Warren E. Buffett. Furthermore, there have been periods in history when investors have reacted more favorably to the combination of vastly different businesses under a single corporate umbrella. During those times, the shares of even run-of the-mill conglomerates have appeared to glitter. But over the long haul, conglomerates, on average, perform worse in the stock market than the typical focused company. One likely cause is that they tend to do a poor job of allocating capital among their various divisions. Of course, if those units were separate publicly traded companies, the market itself would be making the allocation decisions. And it stands to reason that the overall market is a better administrator in this regard than the average corporate manager. A study conducted by David S. Scharfstein, a finance professor at the Harvard Business School, offers evidence of inefficient capital allocation among widely diversified companies. Professor Scharfstein found that managers of conglomerates generally felt compelled to invest something in all of their divisions, regardless of the divisions' growth potential - a phenomenon that he calls intrafirm 'socialism.' Because of it, conglomerates tend to invest too much in divisions with low growth potential and too little in those with high potential. Professor Scharfstein's research was conducted for the National Bureau of Economic Research; a copy of his study is at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=226103. His findings help to explain why conglomerates can unlock value by breaking into component parts. Once those parts are separate, publicly traded companies, the businesses with the highest growth potential should attract capital more easily than the slowest-growth units. WHILE the decision by Cendant thus makes good investment sense, why did it - or any other conglomerate, for that matter - decide to become so widely diversified in the first place? A possible answer is suggested in research by the finance professors Owen Lamont of Yale and Christopher Polk of Northwestern. Writing in the January 2002 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they said companies with the lowest growth prospects tended to be the most likely to diversify. That is probably because such companies see greater growth opportunities in businesses unrelated to their own. Of course, once a slow-growth company becomes part of a group of unrelated businesses, Professor Scharfstein's intrafirm socialism kicks in, moving capital out of the fast-growing divisions. If the conglomerate remains intact for a long time, the results may leave investors lamenting its very creation.

Subject: Are Schools Passing or Failing? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 05:37:29 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/nyregion/02education.html November 2, 2005 Are Schools Passing or Failing? Now There's a Third Choice ... Both By MICHAEL WINERIP OUR leaders in Washington and the state capitals have not trusted teachers, principals and superintendents to grade and assess their own students rigorously. And so, over the last decade, politicians have enacted many new testing and rating systems - most notably the federal No Child Left Behind Law in 2002 - to ensure that there is an accurate and scientific measure of how students and schools perform. No more touchy-feely glop. The new age of precision testing has arrived. Thanks to No Child Left Behind, all children must take a state test every year beginning in third grade, and many schools spend much of the year prepping for it. We now have federal and state tests, as well as federal and state rating systems to measure performance precisely. Unfortunately, it may be that the more we test and the more rating we do, the less we know. For example, two weeks ago, the latest results of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP, pronounced nape) were released. It is a federal reading and math exam given to hundreds of thousands of students every few years, and is often called the gold standard of testing. Sounds definitive, except in most cases it's hard to know what to make of the results, since big discrepancies exist between the scores on this federal test and the annual state tests. Take Florida, where 30 percent of fourth graders were proficient in reading on this federal test in 2005. Yet on the Florida state test, 71 percent of fourth graders were proficient in reading in 2005. It's a big difference: Are nearly three-quarters of your fourth graders proficient? Or less than a third? And it's typical. On the 2005 federal test, 33 percent of New York's fourth graders were proficient in reading; on New York's 2005 state test, 70 percent were. In Tennessee, 27 percent of fourth graders were proficient in reading on the federal test; 87.9 percent on the state test. Nationwide, millions of students may or may not be proficient, depending on which test you favor. What's more, basic trends on the two sets of tests are often contradictory. In Florida, the federal fourth-grade reading proficiency scores were down two percentage points between 2003 and 2005 (bad news); on the state test they were up 11 points (good news). In New York, on the federal test, fourth-grade reading proficiency was down one point; on the state test, up six points. In short, it's hard to answer the age-old question: Are fourth graders getting smarter or dumber? 'It's a problem,' said Wayne Blanton, executive director of the Florida School Boards Association. 'It's a case of trying to compare apples and elephants.' Federal officials don't see it that way. 'To us, more information is better,' said Tom Luce, an assistant secretary in the federal Department of Education. 'People say, 'Well, it's confusing.' But I think the American people can deal with two different pieces of information at once.' Mr. Luce said that when residents in states like New York, Tennessee and Florida see such big discrepancies, 'they're going to ask questions.' He added, 'That's why the NAEP test is there, to shed light.' Right now, the light's looking dim; there are only guesses about what's really going on. Some, like Chester E. Finn Jr., president of the conservative Thomas B. Fordham Foundation, say the states are making their tests too easy, to ensure they get high marks on the No Child Left Behind rating system. Some say the federal test's proficiency level is set too high. And Robert Schaeffer, public education director of the liberal group FairTest, says, 'It shows these so-called objective measures are arbitrary, easily manipulated and profoundly political.' There are also major discrepancies between the state and federal systems used to rate schools. Under Florida's state report card system, 66 percent of schools got an A or B in 2005. Under the federal rating system, 64 percent of Florida schools failed to make adequate progress in 2005. So, about two-thirds of Florida schools were succeeding and two-thirds failing at the same time; 825 schools that got an A or B from the state failed under the federal system. What to do when two highly scientific rating systems produce such skewed results? Fiddle with the numbers. Last spring Florida requested several waivers to ease standards for the federal rating system. Originally, 48 percent of students for 2005 were supposed to be proficient on the state reading test for a school to meet the federal standard. Federal officials agreed to let Florida lower the threshold to 37 percent proficient. Thanks to this waiver, hundreds of Florida schools, like Lake Alfred Elementary in Polk County, made adequate progress under the federal system for the first time. Under the federal rating system, the school, as well as each subgroup at the school - whites, blacks, Hispanics, special ed children - must make the 37 percent proficiency. At Lake Alfred, 44 percent of the Hispanic subgroup was proficient in reading. Had there been no waiver, and the cutoff stayed at 48 percent, Lake Alfred would have failed on the federal system. Lake Alfred also benefited from a statistical quirk. The past two years the school's special ed students failed to make adequate progress. For example, in 2003, only 3 of 34 special ed students were proficient in reading. This year, only 4 of 26 special ed students were proficient, 15 percent, far below the 37 percent proficiency needed. But in Florida, for a subgroup to be counted in the federal rating system, it must have at least 30 students. Because Lake Alfred had 26 this year, the high special ed failure rate didn't count. IN 2004, because Lake Alfred had failed to make adequate progress under the federal system for two years, students were given letters permitting them to transfer out. This year, students were transferring in to Lake Alfred. Same school. Same principal. Same teachers. Eileen Castle has been the principal for 21 years and celebrated with her teachers when they made adequate progress under the federal system. She is proud of the innovative reading and math programs at her high-poverty school, but even so, she knows she made it because of the state waiver and subgroup size exemption - not because Lake Alfred was any better or worse than the previous year. 'It's a numbers game,' she said, 'and we could have just as easily been labeled failing.' Over the last two weeks, Kim Karesh, spokeswoman for the Tennessee Education Department, has repeatedly been asked by reporters about the big discrepancy between Tennessee state scores and federal scores. 'I've asked these questions myself to federal officials, and the answers don't make a lot of sense,' she said. 'In education these days, we talk numbers until we're blue in the face. But there's a bigger philosophical question: 'Can you really boil it down to a number?' '

Subject: Congress's Sham Budget Savings From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 04:51:56 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/07/opinion/07mon1.html November 7, 2005 Congress's Sham Budget Savings That rara avis, the moderate Republican lawmaker, is suddenly in sight, forcefully objecting to the House leadership's abominable package of budget cuts for the poor and environmental licentiousness for the energy industry. The five-year, $54 billion proposal is headed for a floor vote this week disguised as an overdue act of fiscal responsibility and government savings. In truth, it is so over-the-top in its inequities and giveaways that embarrassed moderates are actually rebelling, withholding support unless some of the more outrageous measures - like despoiling the Alaska wildlife refuge with oil drilling - are killed. The Republican-led Senate has already approved its own $35 billion budget-cutting measure that seems a model of moderation compared with the House's proposed mayhem. It is important to understand, however, that neither approach delivers the net savings being grandly claimed. An additional $70 billion worth of upper-bracket tax cuts heavily backed by the White House are waiting in the wings and will drive the deficit even deeper across generations of taxpayers. The administration and Congressional leaders arranged to separate votes on the two halves of the budget to obscure the full picture. The tax-cut madness mocks the budget-hawk posture the Congressional Republicans will be claiming in the next elections. Taxpayers once wooed with promises of compassionate conservatism should pay close attention to details of the rival budget plans. Chief among them is the House's mean-spirited cut of $12 billion in Medicaid access and benefits for the poor. It would invite budget-stressed states to levy health-care copayments and pass tougher workfare rules while crimping child care, food stamps and other antipoverty programs. The far saner Senate approach is to largely spare Medicaid but squeeze bloat from Medicare in the form of a notorious $10 billion 'stabilization fund' for providers that Congress's own advisory panel has warned is a windfall gimmick. President Bush is threatening to veto the entire bill over this, but the Senate should stand fast. The conservative bloc has used the unexpected costs of Hurricane Katrina to justify its sudden clamor for budget slashing. But that doesn't hold up to its actions. The Senate began the budget process with estimates that $9 billion was needed for emergency Medicaid for thousands of hurricane victims and refugees. But the White House forced the Senate to cut that to $1.8 billion in the actual budget bill. And for all the post-Katrina vows to boost emergency winter heating subsidies as oil prices spiked, the Senate approved only the $2.2 billion that was planned before the hurricane hit. The House budget is rife with purely ideological stratagems, including a plan to split in two the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, based in San Francisco, because the right wing considers it a liberal hotbed. The Senate deserves credit for eliminating a major cotton support program, one of the many agricultural subsidies that allow American corporate farmers to sell products overseas at well below the cost of production and squeeze the living out of farmers in the poorest countries on earth. But its approval of the Alaska oil-drilling foray is a grave misstep. It will be made worse by the House's destructive plan to revive off-shore oil drilling and allow an environmental rip-off through the sale of public lands to developers at bargain prices. Once the House passes its version of the spending bill, an even wilier form of budget politics will follow - the final, closed bargaining of conferees from the House and Senate. House leaders might easily jettison Alaska drilling to appease moderates this week, while counting on the Senate bargainers to keep it in final compromise. It will be a test, too, of the Senate's more responsible budgeting to see if its negotiators allow the House to prevail on things like food stamps and Medicaid. There was not much comfort in the vote in the Senate last week to defeat a proposal to restore the pay-as-you go discipline - spending balanced with adequate revenue flow - that produced surpluses in the 1990's. This Congress helped kill off those surpluses, but even Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has come round to warning lawmakers against cutting taxes by increasing the already damaging budget deficit.

Subject: Paul Krugman: Fixing Health Care From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 04:36:56 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ November 7, 2005 Paul Krugman: Fixing Health Care By Mark Thoma With so many companies such as General Motors and Delphi reducing medical benefits, with Wal-Mart's recent plans to cut healthcare costs by screening out high medical cost job applicants, with recent discussions about reducing the government's role in economic security, including healthcare, and with demographic realities in front of us, Paul Krugman examines the most efficient means of satisfying our health needs of the future, and what it will take to get there. He sees two factors standing in the way, prejudice that does not allow us to get over mistaken ideology that the private sector is always more efficient than the government, and the inability to overcome our pride and admit that other countries may have better ideas than we do in this area: Pride, Prejudice, Insurance, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...Employment-based health insurance is the only serious source of coverage for Americans too young to receive Medicare and insufficiently destitute to receive Medicaid, but it's an institution in decline. ... The funny thing is that the solution - national health insurance ... - is obvious. But to see the obvious we'll have to overcome pride - the unwarranted belief that America has nothing to learn from other countries - and prejudice - the equally unwarranted belief, driven by ideology, that private insurance is more efficient than public insurance. Let's start with the fact that America's health care system spends more, for worse results, than that of any other advanced country. In 2002 the United States spent $5,267 per person on health care. Canada spent $2,931; Germany spent $2,817; Britain spent only $2,160. Yet the United States has lower life expectancy and higher infant mortality than any of these countries. But don't people in other countries sometimes find it hard to get medical treatment? Yes ..but so do Americans. ... The journal Health Affairs recently published ... a survey of the medical experience of 'sicker adults' in six countries, including Canada, Britain, Germany and the United States. ... It's true that Americans generally have shorter waits for elective surgery ... although German waits are even shorter. But Americans ... find it harder ... to see a doctor when we need one, and our system is more, not less, rife with medical errors. Above all, Americans are far more likely than others to forgo treatment because they can't afford it. ... Why does American medicine cost so much yet achieve so little? ...[W]e treat access to health care as a privilege rather than a right. And this attitude turns out to be inefficient as well as cruel. The U.S. system is much more bureaucratic, with much higher administrative costs, ... because private insurers and other players work hard at trying not to pay for medical care. And our fragmented system is unable to bargain with drug companies and other suppliers for lower prices. Taiwan... offers an object lesson in the economic advantages of universal coverage. In 1995 less than 60 percent of Taiwan's residents had health insurance; by 2001 the number was 97 percent. Yet ... this huge expansion in coverage came virtually free: it led to little if any increase in overall health care spending ... The economic and moral case for health care reform in America... is overwhelming. One of these days we'll realize that our semiprivatized system isn't just unfair, it's far less efficient than a straightforward system of guaranteed health insurance. I agree. As discussed extensively at this site, there are important market failures in the provision of social insurance, moral hazard is one problem, adverse selection is another, the inefficiencies from fighting over who pays the bills identified by Krugman is yet another, that make the private sector provision of social insurance less efficient than public sector provision. [See this NBER paper for more on the insurance value of government provided health insurance. See 'Passing the Buck' for more from Krugman on this topic.]

Subject: Landscapes for Pleasure From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 09:51:36 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/arts/design/04glue.html November 4, 2005 'Blue Boy' for a Living; Landscapes for Pleasure By GRACE GLUECK NEW HAVEN - Best known as a society portraitist (think of 'Blue Boy,' his sleek, princely picture of one Master Jonathan Buttall), the English painter Thomas Gainsborough (1727-88) really yearned to do landscapes, regarding his portrait practice as a bread-and-butter operation. As a young man, untutored in art but working in London with the French engraver and illustrator Hubert Gravelot, he developed an interest in Dutch landscapes by Hobbema, van Ruisdael, van Ostade and others. On visits to his family home in Sudbury, Suffolk, he did his first landscapes in the Dutch mode, later combining them with the full-length portraits he needed to do for a living in small works called 'conversation pieces.' But eventually he turned to more lucrative, life-scale portraiture, and in 1759 moved with his wife and children to Bath, where he found a wealthy and sophisticated clientele. And he discovered the elegant repertory of Van Dyck, revered renderer of the Stuart court of Charles I. As he refined his style, Gainsborough's reputation grew, while his landscape backdrops dwindled into stagey decorations. After he set up in London in 1774, his portrait clientele became a roster of the rich and famous, including King George III and Queen Charlotte. By this time, Gainsborough's acknowledged rival as a portraitist was no less than Sir Joshua Reynolds. Still, for his own pleasure, he continued to paint landscapes, and in the late 1770's he became interested in idealized rustic themes, notably of cottage life in the English countryside, where poor peasants carried on hardscrabble lives in humble cottages while sweetly making the best of their lot. His most famous painting of this genre is 'The Cottage Door' (circa 1780), a gentrified ode to pastoral innocence that sentimentally depicts a mother and her young brood outside the door of their thatched hut, buried deep in a forest. Gainsborough's homey groups of figures outside their abodes were among the first in English painting to deal with the subject of cottage life, and his works in this vein were also among the first to subscribe to the 18th-century English 'sensibility' movement, which encouraged artists to respond to nature's naïve beauty and the picturesqueness of the English peasantry, if not to their woes and miseries. 'Sensation and Sensibility: Viewing Gainsborough's 'Cottage Door' ' at the Yale Center for British Art is about that movement and Gainsborough's contributions, along with those of his contemporaries. The show, a collaboration between the Yale Center and the Huntington Library, Art Collections and Botanical Gardens in San Marino, Calif., is said to be the first such gathering of paintings, prints and drawings, together with viewing aids used to attract audiences to the art. These aids include a reproduction of a short bit of hocus-pocus called an Eidophusikon, an early form of cinema that influenced Gainsborough and that comprised a thunderous sound and light show in which scenic illusions were manipulated by hand; and a re-creation of a 'tent room' set up by Sir John Leicester, the proud owner of the work, in his London town house in 1818. It displayed 'The Cottage Door' in a luxurious fabric tent equipped with mirrors and oil lamps. The recreation serves as a setting for it here, too. In all, Gainsborough did about five 'Cottage Door' paintings, apparently so influentially that cottage life as a theme was taken up by a number of his contemporaries. In the 1780 painting, his touch is feathery but sure, his colors lush and his blending of the figures with their background deft. Still, the work seems posed and theatrical, not all that far from a candy box cover. A better, earthier example is 'Peasant Smoking at a Cottage Door' (1785-88), a scene of domestic felicity in which the setting sun lights up a peasant, who holds a jug as he puffs his pipe, in company with his wife and three small children (one nursing). In this last decade of his life, Gainsborough was also looking at images of street urchins, painted with sympathy and dignity by the 17th-century Spanish artist Murillo. Gainsborough translated these urban images into country folk: cottagers, woodsmen, beggars and such, dealing with types rather than with real people. Among these is a late one called 'The Wood Gatherers' (1787), depicting a young girl dressed in rags, holding a toddler in her arms and with a small boy seated next to her on a rock. The girl looks soulfully out from the picture, set in a bombastic landscape; the toddler looks away from her in the other direction, holding out a chubby arm and hand. Yet it is really one of Gainsborough's aristocratic family templates, and it does not take much imagination on the part of the viewer to see a duchess in her finery replacing the girl, accompanied by her two blue-blooded children. In short, with all due respect to Gainsborough's masterly brushwork, I am not convinced that his insights as a portrait painter to the wealthy gave him much of a handle on people of lesser stature. To me, his preoccupation and that of his contemporaries with the theme of the cottage door is as patronizing as Marie Antoinette playing milkmaid at Versailles.

Subject: A Novel, by Someone From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 08:21:59 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/books/03jian.html?ex=1288674000&en=5c400c8294980716&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 3, 2005 A Novel, by Someone, Takes China by Storm By HOWARD W. FRENCH BEIJING - For the author of one of China's best-selling novels of recent years, and moreover, one about rugged life among wolves on the Mongolian plains, Jiang Rong makes a surprisingly timid introduction. 'I am sorry, I have no name cards,' said the man meekly as he entered the living room of his home here, where a foreigner was waiting to see him recently. Having no cards, at least, seemed appropriate, for much about Mr. Jiang, beginning with his real name, is a mystery. When asked who he is, the writer demurred, embarking on a halting defense of his efforts to remain anonymous from behind the screen of his heavy-framed, somewhat antiquated eyeglasses. 'This is the first time I've received anyone in my home,' he said. 'You must understand, my situation is a bit complicated.' This much is known: Mr. Jiang, a 59-year-old political scientist at a Beijing university, has written his first novel, 'Wolf Totem,' a stirring allegorical critique of Chinese civilization, which he calls soft and lacking in individuality and freedom. He volunteered for farm work on the prairie of Inner Mongolia during the Cultural Revolution and became versed in the ways of China's northern hinterland. And although he will not comment, it is rumored that he was in political trouble in China in the late 1980's, perhaps spending time in prison. There are also these much happier facts: The legally published version of Mr. Jiang's book has sold at least one million copies in China since its release last year, along with perhaps six million black market copies and other knockoffs. The novel was also recently bought by Penguin for $100,000, a record for the overseas rights for a contemporary Chinese writer. And Peter Jackson, the New Zealand director, a specialist in dark fantasies like 'The Lord of the Rings,' has bought the story rights to the novel and plans to produce a film based on it, recounting how a young Han Chinese man and his friends steal a young wolf from its pit and raise it in their tent. The main character, clearly drawn from Mr. Jiang's own experience, watches with mounting dread as the Han population and cultural influence on the plains rise, leading to the killing off of the wolves and the desertification of the grasslands. One might assume that the delicacy of Mr. Jiang's situation lies in the novel's criticism of China's Han majority and its Confucian-inspired culture, which he repeatedly called autocratic and sheeplike. The author insists this is not so, however, and the evidence seems to support him. 'Wolf Totem' vaunts the cultural merits of Mongolian nomads, which the author lists as 'freedom, independence, respect, unyielding before hardship, teamwork and competition.' It has been talked up abundantly on television programs, handed out by corporate executives as a motivational tool and, it is said, praised among the officer corps of the People's Liberation Army. There is another mystery at work besides Mr. Jiang's identity, however: how could a book that is heavy on anthropology and philosophy, concerned with obscure rituals and Mongolian folk tradition, and lacking in traditional plot lines have captured the attention of so many readers? The appeal, Mr. Jiang says, lies partly in the book's explanations of one of history's great riddles: 'How could Genghis Khan have conquered the world with so few people?' 'The answer lies in something shared between East and West, and that is the nomadic culture,' Mr. Jiang said, chain smoking in his austere living room, his face lighted sharply by the crisp rays of autumn light that filtered in from his garden. 'The nomadism that people always talk about is full of killing and violence, but what it is really about is freedom. This wolf totem culture began earlier in Mongolia and is more sophisticated than anywhere else.' According to Mr. Jiang, Chinese civilization is the product of two strains, nomadic and agricultural, and each has its symbols, the wolf and the dragon. For the author, the wolf is akin to the soul of the Mongolian grasslands, a worthy rival to man as well as a symbol of heaven itself. 'You can look at the wolf and dragon as opposites,' he said. 'The dragon represents autocratic emperors. The wolf means freedom, the mother of democracy, and China opposes freedom more than anything else.' He said the gradual demise of China's wolf heritage helps explain how the country was surpassed by the West. 'As long as most people are lambs, the dragon has no problem,' he said in what seemed like a thinly veiled comment about China's politics. 'But the more wolves there are, the more interesting things become.' Mr. Jiang's iconoclasm is the product of an unusual upbringing. His parents fought in China's war against Japan on the side of the Communists and were seriously injured. They became government officials after the Communist takeover in 1949, leading to a relatively privileged life for their son, an avid reader and lover of foreign culture from an early age. 'I was deeply influenced by my mother, who took the family out traveling on the weekends,' he said. 'Before 1964, when controls on everything tightened, I could find movies from India, the U.S., Britain and the Soviet Union. I could read foreign news reports from my father's copies of Reference News,' a news digest circulated only among party cadres. On the eve of the Cultural Revolution, a period of extreme radicalism that lasted from 1966 to 1976, Mr. Jiang volunteered to do agricultural work in Inner Mongolia, he said, preferring it to the other, far more popular volunteer destination of the day, the far northeastern province of Heilongjiang. 'Everywhere I looked people were confiscating books, and I was collecting them,' he said. 'I brought two big cases of hundreds of books with me: Balzac, Tolstoy, Jack London and Jane Austen. If I had gone to Heilongjiang, I would have been living with the army, and they would have been confiscated.' Mr. Jiang said he chose the most remote place he could for his 11 years on the plains, the Elun grasslands, so close to the border that he could see Mongolia's mountain ranges. The story he wrote had been with him, he said, for more than 20 years, and was forged in friendships on the plains and an appreciation for the Mongolian reverence for the wolf and for the environment. The book was six years in the writing, during which time the author shared it with no one, including his wife, who is a well-known novelist herself. Today, Mr. Jiang says, laughing slyly, friends who know of his past in the grasslands contact him to talk about the book. They ask, 'Do you know the writer?' he said. 'Can you help me with an introduction?'

Subject: Not in Bush's Tax Reform Panel From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 08:08:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/business/yourmoney/06view.html November 6, 2005 Echoes of 1986? Not in Bush's Tax Reform Panel By EDMUND L. ANDREWS WASHINGTON TWENTY years ago, President Ronald Reagan found himself politically weakened by large budget deficits, the Nicaraguan contra imbroglio and a Congress that was partly controlled by his Democratic opponents. Yet Mr. Reagan managed to push through a sweeping overhaul of the tax code that, at least for a few years, stood as a victory of bipartisan common sense over high-priced special interests. That 1986 tax reform achieved two simple but powerful goals: it sharply reduced nominal tax rates and eliminated vast numbers of loopholes, special preferences and bizarre tax-avoidance schemes. Could President Bush achieve a comparable breakthrough? Not unless he changes his modus operandi in fundamental ways. Mr. Bush took a first step toward tax overhaul on Tuesday, when his hand-picked advisory panel delivered two broad proposals for again purging the tax code of its complexity, corruption and cost to the economy. But cleaning up the tax code creates winners and losers, and Mr. Bush has shown little appetite for confronting losers. For evidence, look no further than the corporate tax overhaul last year. That 700-page behemoth contained hundreds of special-interest tax breaks, including many that the Bush administration had openly opposed. But Mr. Bush, passively staying out of the fray, ultimately swallowed all of them. One year ago, Mr. Bush proclaimed that tax overhaul would be one of his two big-vision goals for the second term, coming right after the overhaul of Social Security. But Tuesday, it was hard to avoid the sense that Mr. Bush's tax plan is headed toward the same place as his Social Security plan: nowhere. Mr. Bush himself said nothing about the long-awaited report. Treasury Secretary John W. Snow, who received the recommendations, said they amounted to 'a starting place.' On the tax issue, in contrast to the Social Security plan, Mr. Bush's biggest obstacle has little to do with uncompromising opposition by Democrats. Rather, Mr. Bush's effort is more likely to die as a result of constraints he put on his own tax panel and, by extension, on himself. Those constraints made it impossible for his panel to offer with a sweeping plan that would galvanize either the public or the Republican Party's true believers in a radical overhaul. At the same time, the panel's recommendations would provoke opposition from armies of special-interest groups with something to lose. Under Mr. Bush's explicit marching orders, the panel's proposals had to be 'revenue neutral' and to assume that his tax cuts would be made permanent. He also ordered the panel to retain homeowners' tax breaks, one of the most expensive tax expenditures in the entire code, and to protect tax breaks for charities. Not surprisingly, the resulting plan was sober but uninspiring. The panel would eliminate the alternative minimum tax, or A.M.T., a parallel tax originally aimed at the very rich that is now set to engulf millions of middle-income families every year - especially families with children. Eliminating that tax would be a major achievement, costing $1.2 trillion over the next decade, but it is an issue that has yet to affect most taxpayers and thus is unlikely to generate much excitement. The panel's main proposal would indeed simplify many aspects of the tax code - for example, by consolidating a wide range of tax breaks for savings and retirement accounts. It would greatly benefit wealthy taxpayers by sharply reducing taxes on investment income, but it would also cut back on tax breaks that primarily benefit the rich. However sensible those ideas may be, they fall far short of a radical overhaul. Neither of the proposals would have replaced today's system with a flat tax or a pure consumption tax, the goal of many Republican conservatives. More important, neither of the proposals would significantly lower existing tax rates - a crucial attraction of the 1986 overhaul. Staunch conservatives who would like to replace the income tax entirely with a national sales tax were underwhelmed. 'Nibbling around the edges,' complained Representative John Linder, a Georgia Republican. 'Small and quite complicated, and that's exactly what we're trying to get away from,' said Senator Jim DeMint, Republican of South Carolina. At the same time, both proposals immediately provoked opposition from industry groups and their well-paid lobbyists. Mortgage lenders immediately lashed out at the panel's recommendation to trim back the huge tax deduction for interest payments on home mortgages. Life insurance companies wailed about provisions to tax the earnings on insurance policies. Big-business groups complained about taxing - albeit very gingerly - employer-paid health insurance. Such complaints are inevitable when tax breaks are up for debate. The problem is that special-interest pleaders have extraordinary political leverage if there isn't a big idea animating the overall project. One of the panel's boldest ideas, for example, is to scale back the huge tax deduction on mortgage interest, and to use that money to offset the cost of losing the alternative minimum tax. The mortgage deduction has been sacrosanct ever since the income tax was created almost a century ago. It benefits tens of millions of families and is supposed to make homeownership more affordable and thus more widespread. But the panel offered a trenchant critique of the current deduction. It noted that the rate of homeownership in the United States is the same or lower than it is in Britain and Australia, which have no mortgage interest deduction. If there were no tax deduction for mortgage interest, house prices would almost certainly be lower, and the net cost of homeownership - after a potentially distressing adjustment - would be about the same. THE panel also noted that 70 percent of American tax filers received no benefit from the mortgage deduction in 2002, even though nearly 69 percent of families were homeowners. Fifty-five percent of the tax benefits went to the top 12 percent of taxpayers who earned more than $100,000 a year. Given that critique, the truly bold approach would have been to scrap the mortgage deduction altogether and free up tens of billions of dollars that could be used to lower overall tax rates. But the panel could not do that, because Mr. Bush had ordered it to protect incentives for homeownership. As a result, the panel proposed two big changes. First, it suggested linking the ceiling for mortgage interest deductions to the average price of homes in each region of the country. In effect, deductions could not be taken for mortgages beyond $412,000, rather than $1.1 million under current law. Second, the panel proposed changing the tax deduction for mortgage interest to a tax credit. The advantage is that a tax credit is worth the same amount of money to all taxpayers, regardless of their income. A deduction against taxable income, by contrast, is worth far more to high-income people in the 35 percent tax bracket than to those in the 15 percent bracket. All of those ideas are thoughtful and defensible. But it is hard to imagine that they will prompt an outpouring of public support. That leaves the heavy lifting to political insiders and seasoned lobbyists - precisely the people least likely to push for fairness and simplicity.

Subject: Googling It Is Striking Fear From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 08:05:11 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/technology/06google.html November 6, 2005 Just Googling It Is Striking Fear Into Companies By STEVE LOHR Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer, often intimidates its competitors and suppliers. Makers of goods from diapers to DVD's must cater to its whims. But there is one company that even Wal-Mart eyes warily these days: Google, a seven-year-old business in a seemingly distant industry. 'We watch Google very closely at Wal-Mart,' said Jim Breyer, a member of Wal-Mart's board. In Google, Wal-Mart sees both a technology pioneer and the seed of a threat, said Mr. Breyer, who is also a partner in a venture capital firm. The worry is that by making information available everywhere, Google might soon be able to tell Wal-Mart shoppers if better bargains are available nearby. Wal-Mart is scarcely alone in its concern. As Google increasingly becomes the starting point for finding information and buying products and services, companies that even a year ago did not see themselves as competing with Google are beginning to view the company with some angst - mixed with admiration. Google's recent moves have stirred concern in industries from book publishing to telecommunications. Businesses already feeling the Google effect include advertising, software and the news media. Apart from retailing, Google's disruptive presence may soon be felt in real estate and auto sales. Google, the reigning giant of Web search, could extend its economic reach in the next few years as more people get high-speed Internet service and cellphones become full-fledged search tools, according to analysts. And ever-smarter software, they say, will cull and organize larger and larger digital storehouses of news, images, real estate listings and traffic reports, delivering results that are more like the advice of a trusted human expert. Such advances, predicts Esther Dyson, a technology consultant, will bring 'a huge reduction in inefficiency everywhere.' That, in turn, would be an unsettling force for all sorts of industries and workers. But it would also reward consumers with lower prices and open up opportunities for new companies. Google, then, may turn out to have a more far-reaching impact than earlier Web winners like Amazon and eBay. 'Google is the realization of everything that we thought the Internet was going to be about but really wasn't until Google,' said David B. Yoffie, a professor at Harvard Business School. Google, to be sure, is but one company at the forefront of the continuing spread of Internet technology. It has many competitors, and it could stumble. In the search market alone, Google faces formidable rivals like Microsoft and Yahoo. Microsoft, in particular, is pushing hard to catch Google in Internet search. 'This is hyper-competition, make no mistake,' said Bill Gates, Microsoft's chief executive. 'The magic moment will come when our search is demonstrably better than Google's,' he said, suggesting that this could happen in a year or so. Still, apart from its front-runner status, Google is also remarkable for its pace of innovation and for how broadly it seems to interpret its mission to 'organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful.' The company's current lineup of offerings includes: software for searching personal computer files; an e-mail service; maps; satellite images; instant messaging; blogging tools; a service for posting and sharing digital photos; and specialized searches for news, video, shopping and local information. Google's most controversial venture, Google Print, is a project to copy and catalog millions of books; it faces lawsuits by some publishers and authors who say it violates copyright law. Google, which tends to keep its plans secret, certainly has the wealth to fund ambitious ventures. Its revenues are growing by nearly 100 percent a year, and its profits are rising even faster. Its executives speak of the company's outlook only in broad strokes, but they suggest all but unlimited horizons. 'We believe that search networks as industries remain in their nascent stages of growth with great forward potential,' Eric Schmidt, Google's chief executive, told analysts last month. Among the many projects being developed and debated inside Google is a real estate service, according to a person who has attended meetings on the proposal. The concept, the person said, would be to improve the capabilities of its satellite imaging, maps and local search and combine them with property listings. The service, this person said, could make house hunting far more efficient, requiring potential buyers to visit fewer real estate agents and houses. If successful, it would be another magnet for the text ads that appear next to search results, the source of most of Google's revenue. In telecommunications, the company has made a number of moves that have grabbed the attention of industry executives. It has been buying fiber-optic cable capacity in the United States and has invested in a company delivering high-speed Internet access over power lines. And it is participating in an experiment to provide free wireless Internet access in San Francisco. That has led to speculation that the company wants to build a national free GoogleNet, paid for mostly by advertising. And Google executives seem to delight in dropping tantalizing, if vague, hints. 'We focus on access to the information as much as the search itself because you need both,' Mr. Schmidt said in an analysts' conference call last month. Telecommunications executives are skeptical that Google could seriously eat into their business anytime soon. For one thing, they say, it will be difficult and expensive to build a national network. Still, they monitor Google's every move. 'Google is certainly a potential competitor,' said Bill Smith, the chief technology officer of BellSouth, the Atlanta-based regional phone company. The No. 1 rival to phone companies in the Internet access business, Mr. Smith noted, is the cable television operators. 'But do I discount Google? Absolutely not,' he said. 'You'd be a fool to do that these days.' In retailing, Google has no interest in stocking and selling merchandise. Its potential impact is more subtle, yet still significant. Every store is a collection of goods, some items more profitable than others. But the less-profitable items may bring people into stores, where they also buy the high-margin offerings - one shelf, in effect, subsidizes another. Search engines, combined with other technologies, have the potential to drive comparison shopping down to the shelf-by-shelf level. Cellphone makers, for example, are looking at the concept of a 'shopping phone' with a camera that can read product bar codes. The phone could connect to databases and search services and, aided by satellite technology, reveal that the flat-screen TV model in front of you is $200 cheaper at a store five miles away. 'We see this huge power moving to the edge - to consumers - in this Google environment,' said Lou Steinberg, chief technology officer of Symbol Technologies, which supplies bar-code scanners to retailers. Such services could lead to lower prices for consumers, but also relentless competition that threatens to break up existing businesses. A newspaper or a magazine can be seen as a media store - a collection of news, entertainment and advertising delivered in a package. A tool like Google News allows a reader or an advertiser to pick and choose, breaking up the package by splitting the articles from the ads. And Google's ads, tucked to the side of its search-engine results, are often a more efficient sales generator than print ads. 'Google represents a challenge to newspapers, to be sure,' said Gary B. Pruitt, chief executive of the McClatchy Company, a chain of 12 newspapers including The Star Tribune in Minneapolis and The News & Observer in Raleigh, N.C. 'Google is attacking the advertising base of newspapers.' At the same time, Google and search technology are becoming crucial to the health of newspapers as more readers migrate to the Web. As one path to the future, Mr. Pruitt speaks of his newspapers prospering by tailoring search for local businesses, but also partnering with search engines to attract readers. Within industries, the influence of Internet search is often uneven. For example, search engines are being embraced by car companies, yet they pose a challenge to car dealers. George E. Murphy, senior vice president of global marketing for Chrysler, said Chrysler buys ads on 3,000 keywords a day on the big search sites: Google, Yahoo, Microsoft's MSN and AOL, whose search is supplied by Google. If a person types in one of those keywords, the search results are accompanied by a sponsored link to a Chrysler site. Chrysler refines its approach based on what search words attract clicks, and studies its site traffic for clues on converting browsers to buyers. 'We've got Ph.D.'s working on this,' Mr. Murphy said. 'The great thing about search is that you can do the math and follow the trail.' After following a link to a Chrysler Web site, a prospective buyer can configure a model, find a dealer and get a preliminary price. Only dealers can make final price quotes. Yet with more information on the Web, the direction of things is clear, in Mr. Murphy's view. 'It will fundamentally change what the dealer does, because telling people about the vehicle won't add value for the customer anymore,' he said. 'If dealers don't change, they'll be dinosaurs.' Mr. Breyer, the Wal-Mart board member, watches Google closely in his job as managing partner of Accel Partners, a venture capital firm in Silicon Valley. These days, he advises startups to avoid a 'collision course' with Google, just as he has long counseled fledgling companies to steer clear of Microsoft's stronghold in desktop software. Internet search, like personal computing in its heyday, is a disruptive technology, he said, threatening traditional industries and opening the door to new ones. 'We think there is plenty of opportunity for innovation in the Google economy,' Mr. Breyer said.

Subject: Debating the Difficulty of Tamiflu From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 06:43:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/05/business/05tamiflu.html?ex=1288846800&en=5bcc1b8b61f7dffc&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 5, 2005 Is Bird Flu Drug Really So Vexing? Debating the Difficulty of Tamiflu By ANDREW POLLACK If a bird flu pandemic breaks out, the world's ability to fight back may come down to an ancient Chinese cooking spice - or the perseverance of people like Professor Frost. The Chinese spice, star anise, provides the starting material for the manufacture of the anti-influenza drug Tamiflu, which is expected to be the first line of defense in a pandemic. But there is probably not enough star anise in China or anywhere else to meet the rapidly growing global demand for Tamiflu. That could mean that Tamiflu production cannot be ramped up, even if the maker, Roche, bows to pressure to allow other companies to manufacture the drug. The professor is John W. Frost, a chemist at Michigan State University who developed a technique for making the starting material, shikimic acid, without the coveted star anise. Roche has used Professor Frost's method in recent years, in fact, but he says he heard the company had cut back. Undeterred, Professor Frost is starting a company that he says could produce huge quantities of the material. 'I'm just completely astonished about the gnashing of teeth and the wringing of hands about the shikimic acid,' Professor Frost said. 'The bottleneck should not be shikimic acid availability.' Professor Frost is one of many entrepreneurs seeking to help ramp up production of Tamiflu, perhaps the most sought-after drug in the world right now. Roche says it has received licensing inquiries from more than 100 companies. And some countries and companies say they might produce Tamiflu, also known as oseltamivir, even without Roche's permission. But a debate is raging on how easy that would be to do. Roche has said the manufacturing process requires 10 steps that take six to eight months once the raw materials are in hand. It also says that some steps in production are potentially hazardous because they involve the use of sodium azide, the chemical that makes automobile air bags inflate in an explosive rush. The company says it would take a newcomer two to three years to be able to start production. Roche has never said how much Tamiflu it can make, only that by next year it will be making 8 to 10 times the amount it did in 2003. Roche would not discuss its manufacturing for this article, saying it would do so at a presentation Wednesday at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland. But others insist that the manufacturing process, while more challenging than for some drugs, is not extremely difficult. 'I don't think the chemistry is such a big issue,' said Yusuf K. Hamied, chairman of Cipla, a generic drug company in India that has announced it will produce oseltamivir, the generic name for Tamiflu. He said Cipla already uses sodium azide, the air bag chemical, to produce the AIDS drug AZT and an anti-epilepsy drug. Part of the disagreement about the difficulty might stem from the difference between making small quantities in the laboratory, which can be done quite easily, and producing large amounts commercially. Ernie Prisbe, vice president for chemical development at Gilead Sciences, which invented Tamiflu and licensed it to Roche, said an industry rule of thumb is that each step, even if well defined, takes one month to six weeks to put into practice. Tamiflu manufacturing, by his count, involves 12 steps. The National Health Research Institutes of Taiwan took only 18 days to produce a small quantity of Tamiflu, with guidance from published papers and patents. But producing large quantities is 'another story' said K. S. Shia, who headed the project. Officials in Taiwan would not say how long it would take to achieve larger production. Even if companies can make the drug, they might not have enough shikimic acid. That ingredient is extracted from the fruit of star anise trees, which grow in Southern China. Most of the star anise is now used for Roche's production, but it is also an Asian cooking spice and is used in herbal medicines and in the production of the liqueur pastis. Since demand for Tamiflu started growing recently, the price of shikimic acid from China has soared to more than $400 a kilogram, from $40. 'We managed to corner a few tons but it won't go very far,' said Mr. Hamied of Cipla. The company hopes by March to have produced enough oseltamivir to treat 100,000 to 200,000 people, he said. Last week, the Taiwan government said it had signed an agreement with an unidentified supplier for three metric tons of shikimic acid, which could conceivably provide enough drug to treat 2.3 million people. According to a presentation at a conference last year by a Roche chemist, it takes 13 grams of star anise to make 1.3 grams of shikimic acid, which in turn can be made into 10 Tamiflu capsules - enough to treat one person. By that reckoning, one ton of shikimic acid would be enough for 770,000 people. But Mr. Hamied, a chemist, disputed that, saying one ton of shikimic acid would yield enough for only 300,000 people at most. And newcomers are not likely to have the same production efficiency as Roche, he said. The alternative method of producing shikimic acid developed by Professor Frost involves fermentation using vats of genetically engineered bacteria. He said people he knew at Roche told him the company has curtailed the fermentation of shikimic acid to devote fermenting equipment to more valuable products. If so, that would increase the pressure on star anise supplies. In the fiscal year that ended in June, Michigan State received $113,000 in royalties from Roche, according to Paul Hunt, the university's associate vice president for research and graduate studies. Roche pays $1.85 for each kilogram of shikimic acid it makes using the process, indicating it made about 60 metric tons in that year. Roche has given conflicting statements about its use of fermentation. In an e-mail message, Daniel Piller, a spokesman for Roche, said the company got about a third of its shikimic acid from fermentation and planned to increase that over time. In a conference call with securities analysts two weeks ago, William M. Burns, the head of Roche's pharmaceutical business, said fermentation was part of the company's plan for the medium term. But for now, he said, the use of star anise was the only process approved by regulators. Professor Frost, some industry consultants and Gilead, though, said that government manufacturing regulations did not cover the production of shikimic acid. In any case, Roche is apparently looking to farm out fermentation to others, according to Professor Frost. He is starting a company, Draths Industries, in hopes of supplying it to Roche and other companies. Professor Frost, working with MBI International, a fermentation company in Lansing, Mich., near the university, said he hoped to raise $1 million and had lined up a big fermentation company in Asia that would be able to produce 100 tons of shikimic acid a year. Gilead initially chose quinic acid over shikimic acid as a starting material. Quinic acid, from the bark of the tropical cinchona tree, was available in much greater supply and at lower prices, even though using it required more steps than using shikimic acid, Mr. Prisbe said. But political upheaval in Zaire, the source of its material, raised doubts about future supplies, forcing Gilead to scramble. 'Roche was saying if you guys don't come up with a starting material you don't have a deal with us,' Mr. Prisbe said. Gilead began looking at extracting shikimic acid from gingko trees and even found a scientific paper discussing the extraction from needles of giant sequoias. A gingko products company in Beijing offered to supply the material but suggested star anise would be a better source. Still, quinic acid could be a potential alternative starting material and there might be other sources of shikimic acid besides star anise. Virtually all plants produce some shikimic acid, which they use in making certain amino acids. The herbicide Roundup, in fact, works by interfering with this process. To make Tamiflu, shikimic acid is turned into an intermediate called an epoxide through a series of about five steps that are not considered out of the ordinary. But then the ring-shaped epoxide molecule must be opened up and some atoms substituted for other atoms. That is where the air bag chemical, sodium azide, comes in. Chemists say it is used because it can produce a sharp, clean reaction that leaves few impurities. Although the reaction used to produce Tamiflu does not involve explosions, the azides, as a class, can be explosive. But sodium azide is not dangerously so, some experts say, or it would not be used inside cars. 'It's a wimpy explosive,' said Thomas Archibald, a chemical consultant in the Virgin Islands. He and some others say that drug companies have a needless aversion to azide chemistry - a fear that K. Barry Sharpless, a Nobel Prize-winning chemist at the Scripps Research Institute, has referred to as 'azidophobia.' Many drug companies, including Roche, farm out azide processing steps to companies that specialize in what the industry calls 'energetic' chemistry. Such contractors, presumably, would be available to companies besides Roche that want to make Tamiflu. Many of the companies started doing work on explosives for the military or other uses. Aerojet Fine Chemicals, which did the initial azide processing for Gilead, is part of a company that builds rocket motors outside of Sacramento. 'This is our version of turning swords into plowshares,' said Joseph Carleone, Aerojet's president. 'We took our ability to handle explosives and propellants and applied it to pharmaceuticals.' Mr. Carleone would not say whether his company was doing Tamiflu work for Roche, citing customer confidentiality. Roche has recently said that it has set up manufacturing in the United States at the behest of the federal government, which was worried about reliance on foreign supplies of a vital drug. Among those looking at Tamiflu manufacturing is Gilead, which wants to regain control of the drug from Roche. It accuses Roche of not doing an adequate job in manufacturing and marketing. Roche denies that, and the dispute is in arbitration. Whether for Gilead or for others, when it comes to making Tamiflu 'on a scale of 1 to 10 in difficulty, this is maybe a 7 or so,'' Mr. Prisbe said, 'There's nothing that overwhelming in this kind of synthesis, or that formidable, that someone couldn't do it.'

Subject: Migrants' Portals to Europe From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 06:38:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/05/international/africa/05morocco.html?ex=1288846800&en=34c4e32db02979a0&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 5, 2005 Spain's African Enclaves Are Migrants' Portals to Europe By CRAIG S. SMITH NADOR, Morocco - Zakaria Chouaib peered from his rocky perch on Mount Gourougou toward a stone and stucco settlement below. He had traveled overland about 2,000 miles from Ghana, largely on foot, to arrive within sight of his goal: an eightsquare-mile patch of Spanish territory on Africa's Mediterranean coast called Melilla. Mr. Chouaib, 31, knew that if he could make it across the two razor-wire-topped cyclone fences separating Morocco from the enclave, he stood a good chance of being sent on to Spain and then disappearing into an increasingly borderless Europe. But getting across the fences has become almost impossible. As the numbers of migrants increase, to an estimated 10,000 in Morocco and 20,000 more in neighboring Algeria, Moroccan and Spanish border guards have grown ever tougher. Fourteen migrants have died since late September trying to enter Melilla and its sister enclave to the west, Ceuta. Thousands of others have been rounded up or chased down in the forests around the enclaves and in the immigrant neighborhoods of Casablanca and Rabat. Even so, bands of men like Mr. Chouaib, shaken loose from their homes by war, famine and failed economies, say they are not about to turn back. 'I'm not giving up,' he said, staring at the Spanish enclave below. 'Maybe there's an opportunity on the way - you never know.' Mr. Chouaib is part of a growing tide of young Africans, mostly men, who have crossed the Sahara and are pressing on Europe's southern shores. They live in the North African bush with little more than the clothes on their backs, surviving on handouts or meager savings. The AIDS epidemic sweeping their homelands is likely to swell the tide as it deprives their societies of leaders, education and jobs. On a ledge above Melilla, Mr. Chouaib and a half-dozen other young men live among the stones, sleeping beneath the stars or taking shelter in caves when the rains come. The Africans built up a shantytown in the forests of Mount Gourougou, complete with chapel and mosque, but the Moroccan authorities destroyed it earlier this year. Now the men live without any structure that police patrols might spot from afar. The ground around their camp is littered with empty sardine cans, plastic bottles and spent toothpaste tubes. They share what food and water they can gather from occasional sorties to the edge of town. Residents living here express sympathy for the migrants and say they cause no trouble. At the closest small shop, nearly an hour's walk away, the owner says the police should leave them alone. 'They only want a better life,' he said. But their existence is increasingly perilous. On one recent day, two members of the group were missing after going to fetch water the previous morning. Another man sat dumbly, his lips swollen and teeth broken from a fall while running from the police. Days later, another of their group was nearly caught on a run for provisions and returned badly beaten by the police. The migrants used to go to Libya to try to get into Europe, but Libya has grown inhospitable, and the flow has shifted toward Morocco. Sea patrols have closed off the water routes, so migrants have narrowed their focus to Ceuta and Melilla, which have been Spanish territories since 1580 and 1497 respectively. Spain transfers migrants who make it into the enclaves to the Spanish mainland for interviews with immigration officials, giving them a chance to flee from there to almost anywhere in Europe. In the four months that ended in October, more than 500 migrants were sent to Spain from their footholds in the enclaves. In 1998, Spain built double fences around the enclaves to keep migrants out, but they continued to scale the fences with makeshift ladders and homemade gloves. It is a treacherous venture. The outer fence is nine feet tall, and the inner fence has been doubled in height to 18 feet in most places. Both are topped with razor-sharp, barbed concertina wire. Military jeeps patrol the roads between them. Even if migrants scale the fences, few land uninjured. Some break their legs or necks tumbling over the other side. Attempts to reach the enclaves surged this year after Spain began increasing the height of the fences. The assaults also became organized, with coordinated groups rushing the fences at multiple points to overwhelm the border guards. On some nights 500 migrants or more have taken part in the mass efforts. About 20 percent usually succeed in reaching Spanish territory, the Spanish and Moroccan authorities say. But then the border guards began using deadly force to stop the assaults. Morocco has admitted killing at least four migrants in October. Hundreds have been deported, but hundreds more have simply withdrawn into the hills, where they live in loose groups based on nationality or language. Mr. Chouaib left his wife and two children in Kumasi, Ghana, four years ago and has spent thousands of dollars trying to get to Europe. He managed to get within sight of an Italian island, Lampedusa, two years ago when the boat he was traveling on from Libya was turned back by the Italian Navy and diverted to Tunisia. He walked most of the way to Algeria but was arrested there and dumped last year with other migrants in the Sahara, on the country's southern border. Some of the men died, he said. He has been caught four times by Moroccan border guards while trying to get to Melilla. He was sent to the Algerian border each time and each time walked back. Like many migrants, Mr. Chouaib has registered with the United Nations refugee agency in the Moroccan capital, Rabat, and carries a letter from the agency saying his case is under review. But the letter is little help. 'The Moroccan police laugh when I show it to them,' he said. Still, he says he will persevere. Friends have run the perilous obstacle course before and report back that jobs are plentiful in Europe. 'Some are in Italy working on farms, and they have called saying we should try our best to come,' Mr. Chouaib said, a grimy Austin, Tex., Marathon T-shirt peeking from under his black leather jacket. 'Where there's life, there's hope.' Nador's governor, Abdellah Bendhiba, complains that the number of sub-Saharan Africans arrested trying to breach the barrier around Melilla jumped to 6,700 so far this year, from 2,447 last year. He said his province had spent roughly $60 million dealing with the problem since January. 'Morocco can't afford to pay that alone,' he said during a recent interview. Melilla's president, Juan José Imbroda Ortíz, blames the immigration policies of Spain's Socialist president, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Mr. Rodríguez offered amnesty earlier this year to up to 800,000 illegal immigrants, and Mr. Ortíz complained that there had been more than 30 mass attempts to scale Melilla's fence since then, compared with just five in the six previous years. The Spanish policies have also angered other European countries, particularly Germany, which has complained that they weaken all of Europe's immigration controls. Once in Spain, the migrants can travel throughout a 15-country zone without showing any papers. On a road leading south from Nador, small bands of men in tattered clothing, with bedrolls and water bottles strung over their shoulders with twine, walk through the night on their way back toward the Algerian border. Elhadje Ndiay, 40, stared with eyes wild from hunger and exhaustion at a passer-by who had stopped to talk. Mr. Ndiay left his wife and two sons in Senegal nearly a year ago and spent a month in the forests outside Melilla before trying to jump the fence. The first time, he was caught before he could reach the barrier. The second time, he made it to the fence with a homemade ladder when shooting began. He said hundreds of troops had chased the migrants through the forests. They took his money and cellphone, he said, but he escaped. 'We are going back to Algeria to work,' he said. 'Then we will come back and try again.'

Subject: Riots Spread From Paris From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 06:07:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/international/europe/06paris.html?ex=1288933200&en=77c56fdabdc8f1bd&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 6, 2005 Riots Spread From Paris to Other French Cities By CRAIG S. SMITH PARIS - Nighttime rioting arising from public housing developments continued to rage early Saturday, spreading to the outskirts of more cities and leaving the authorities frustrated by their inability to stop what many are calling France's worst civil unrest since the 1968 student revolts. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin met with eight of his ministers and a top Muslim official on Saturday, trying to find a way to break the chain of violent events. More than 1,000 vehicles and many buildings have been destroyed in the violence that began Oct. 27, with nearly 900 vehicles reported burned Friday night alone. Most of the unrest remained confined to immigrant neighborhoods surrounding Paris, where about 100 people were evacuated Friday night from two apartment blocks after an arson attack set dozens of cars alight in an underground garage. Rampaging youths have also attacked property in the southern cities of Toulouse and Nice, and in Lille and Rennes to the north. Hundreds of young people, including teenagers as young as 13, have been detained in the past 24 hours. Although the police have been unable to stop the violence because of its apparent spontaneity and lack of clear leaders, officials say they have also begun to detect efforts to coordinate action and spread it nationally. In remarks on Europe 1 Radio, the prosecutor general in Paris, Yves Bot, said Web sites were urging youths in other cities to join the rioting. The police said that for the first time they had deployed a helicopter to videotape incidents and coordinate with officers on the ground. Roman Catholic, Protestant and Muslim leaders led a march of about 2,000 people on Saturday morning in Aulnay-sous-Bois, one of the affected suburbs. The parents of two teenagers, whose accidental deaths while hiding from the police touched off the rioting, also issued a statement appealing for calm. Many see the violence as a test of wills between Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and the young, mostly French Arab rioters. Many immigrants and their children blame Mr. Sarkozy for alienating young people with the way he has pressed a zero-tolerance anticrime campaign, which features frequent police checks of French Arabs in poor neighborhoods. But he has ignored calls from many French Arabs to resign, and is keeping up the pressure. During a visit to a police command center west of Paris on Saturday, according to local news reports, he told officers, 'Arrests - that's the key.' Ironically, Mr. Sarkozy, himself a second-generation immigrant, has been one of the loudest champions of affirmative action and of relaxing rules that restrict government support for building mosques. The government has been embarrassed by its inability to quell the disturbances, which have called into question its unique integration model, which discourages recognizing ethnic, religious or cultural differences in favor of French unity. There is no affirmative action, for example, and religious symbols, like the Muslim veil, are banned in schools. 'The republican integration model, on which France has for decades based its self-perception, is in flames,' the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung declared. An editorial in Germany's Süddeutsche Zeitung called the violence around Paris an 'intifada at the city gates,' a reference to the anti-Israeli uprising by Palestinians. The French approach to integration is one of three basic models in Europe, which has faced large-scale non-European immigration only in the postwar era. Germany and Austria pursued a now largely discredited 'guest worker' policy that was based on the notion that immigrants were temporary laborers who would eventually go home. But the guest workers did not go home, and their European-born children have begun demanding citizenship and equal rights. While it is still difficult to become a citizen in Germany, there has been a strong wave of naturalizations in recent years and children born there to foreign parents now receive citizenship at birth. Several hundred thousand Turkish Germans voted in the recent presidential elections. Britain has followed a policy closer to that of the United States, extending citizenship to newcomers and encouraging strong ethnic communities. Immigrants arriving from Commonwealth countries in the 1950's and 1960's enjoyed immediate voting rights until Margaret Thatcher put an end to the practice in 1981. But the law created politically powerful immigrant communities. France, too, has offered citizenship to its immigrants, but the process was slower, and many of the Algerians who arrived to work in the wake of their country's bitter war of independence against France were reluctant to take up French citizenship. Not until naturalizations became more common in the 1980's did immigrants and their adult children begin to develop political power. The country has tried to discourage 'ghettoization' by ignoring ethnic or religious differences and emphasizing French identity above all. Until the early 1980's, foreigners needed government approval to form associations, and while there are no restrictions now, the country provides little support for ethnic or religious-based organizations. But discrimination has flourished behind the oft-stated ideals, leaving immigrants and their French-born offspring increasingly isolated in government-subsidized apartment blocks to face high unemployment and dwindling hope for the future.

Subject: France Has an Underclass From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 05:50:19 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/weekinreview/06smith.html November 6, 2005 France Has an Underclass, but Its Roots Are Still Shallow By CRAIG S. SMITH PARIS — Just two months ago, the French watched in horrified fascination at the anarchy of New Orleans, where members of America's underclass were seen looting stores and defying the police in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Last week, as rioters torched cars and trashed businesses in the immigrant-concentrated suburbs of Paris, the images of wild gangs of young men silhouetted against the yellow flames of burning cars came as an unwelcome reminder for France that it has its own growing underclass. The coincidence of timing can be revealing - and deceptive. The corrosive gap between America's whites and its racial minorities, especially African-Americans, is the product of centuries: slavery, followed by cycles of poverty and racial exclusion that denied generation after generation the best the United States could offer. France, on the other hand, is only beginning to struggle with a much newer variant of the same problem: the fury of Muslims of North African descent who have found themselves caught for three generations in a trap of ethnic and religious discrimination. Even so, France is still low on the curve toward developing an entrenched, structural underclass - one that could breed extremism and lasting social problems. So far, while hundreds of cars and buses have been burned and dozens of businesses destroyed in violence that has spread to a dozen towns, most rioters appear to be teenage boys bent more on making the news than making a coherent political statement. 'It's a game of cowboys and Indians,' said Olivier Roy, a French scholar of European Islam. He is usually keen to warn Europeans of the potential danger posed by Islamists living among them. But in this case, he said, the danger is a long-range one. So far, he said, the attacks on the police and the torching of cars has less the character of a religious war than of 'a local sport, a rite of passage.' The violence, on the other hand, reflects something that any American who lived through the urban upheavals of the 1960's, or the 1992 riots in Los Angeles, might recognize: a dangerous degree of isolation felt by a growing segment of its population, especially its young. Although many Americans feel that their country still has a lot of work to do to close the gap between blacks and whites, the social protests and urban upheavals of the 1960's produced a stream of measures intended to increase political and economic opportunities rapidly for members of minority groups, and to stress the value of diversity to a democracy. By contrast, the French model has so far relied largely on expensive measures to keep poor Muslims fed, housed and educated, but has not effectively addressed the social or political isolation they feel from job and housing discrimination, and has actually limited their ability to define themselves as a political interest group. Affirmative action, a cornerstone of the American approach, has been a taboo here. Manuel Valls, a member of Parliament and mayor of Évry, a troubled suburb south of Paris that has seen its share of violence in the past few days, put it this way: 'We've combined the failure of our integration model with the worst effects of ghettoization, without a social ladder for people to climb.' 'In the U.S. and Britain, the communities help create opportunities for advancement,' he continued. But in France 'the state and the politicians have left the playing field open for a political-religious response - that's undeniable.' Still, because France's difficulties are relatively recent, it may have a chance to escape the depth of the American problems. For one thing, the physical conditions in these neighborhoods have not begun to rival poor urban areas in the United States. Even in the worst government housing developments, green lawns and neat flower beds break the monotony of the gray concrete. There are more than 700 such neighborhoods in the country, housing nearly five million people or about 8 percent of the population. The despair in these housing projects (called cités here) has been mitigated by better schools than those that serve poor, minority districts in the United States (education is financed nationally in France, rather than through local tax rolls) and by extensive welfare programs. Even when employed, a family of four living in a government-subsidized apartment typically pays only a few hundred dollars a month in rent and can receive more than $1,200 a month in various subsidies. The unemployed receive more. For all, health care and education are free. There is crime, but not nearly at the level of random violence feared in poor neighborhoods in American cities. Guns are tightly controlled and are still relatively rare. When a teenager was killed in a drive-by shooting in a Paris suburb this year, it made national headlines. The family unit among immigrants is still strong, as are ties to their homelands. But that tight social fabric is fraying as the second and now third generations of French-born immigrants come of age. On two levels, many young immigrants find themselves questioning where they really belong. They have weaker ties than their parents did to their ancestral countries, but they are also discovering that, contrary to what they have been taught in school, they are not fully French. That is one foundation of the fear among some experts that a structural underclass is emerging. Already, French-Arabs and French-Africans make up the majority of inmates in France's prisons, just as minorities make up a vastly disproportionate part of the American prison population. France's definition of citizenship also presents problems. While the United States stresses pluralism, France continues to discourage anything that could carve up the French body politic along ethnic lines; the word 'communautarisme,' which roughly translates as ghettoization, is known to all French as a destructive force that afflicts, most notably, the United States. It was only in 2003 that the French government encouraged the formation of an umbrella Islamic organization that could represent French Muslims in a dialogue with the state. The overall policy has only increased Muslim resentments by banning any form of affirmative action and by suppressing cultural expression in measures like forbidding Muslim girls to wear veils in school. As in the United States, most experts agree that in the long run, full employment would be the best way to solve the problems and accelerate integration. Here, the comparison between the history of American minority groups and those in France seems particularly close. The jobless rate among French-Arabs and French-Africans is as high as 30 percent in some neighborhoods, triple the national average. French-Arabs regularly claim that when identical résumés are submitted to an employer with an Arab name on one and a French name on another, the résumé with the French name will get the priority. That much, at least, may be changing. In March, President Jacques Chirac appointed the chairman of the automaker Renault, Louis Schweitzer, to head a council created to fight job and housing discrimination. The country is also engaged in a debate over whether to bend its laws to allow affirmative action in the job market. 'The picture of France as a country that doesn't want to recognize diversity - that's partially true,' said Patrick Weil, an expert on immigration and integration based in Paris for the German Marshall Fund. 'But there's a debate now about what steps should be taken to change that.'

Subject: Evolution Is in the Air From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 05:45:30 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/opinion/06judson.html November 6, 2005 Evolution Is in the Air By OLIVIA JUDSON London ANYONE who supposes that evolution doesn't happen, or doesn't matter, should spare a thought for H5N1, the virus causing avian flu. If we're unlucky, this virus will give us a nasty demonstration of evolution in action. Viruses are among the simplest parasites. They are essentially tiny parcels of genes that are mailed from one organism to another, either directly, through sneezes, feces, semen and the like, or indirectly, through carriers like insects. But these tiny parcels can mean big trouble: viruses reliably feature on nature's roster of top killers. The influenza virus that caused the infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 had only eight genes - but it brought about more than 20 million human deaths. And alas, its lethality cannot be blithely attributed to wartime deprivation. For one thing, it was particularly deadly in young, healthy adults. For another, in a remarkable feat of genetic engineering, a team of biologists recently reconstructed the 1918 virus and used it to infect mice. The results are sobering. The 1918 virus is far, far more lethal in mice than are other human flu viruses. H5N1 also has eight genes (by way of comparison, humans have about 20,000). So far, the virus's effects have been more modest than those of the 1918 influenza: it has killed a lot of birds and about 60 people. That's still worrying, however, because it has killed more than half of the people it has infected. For a virus, that is a high death toll. At the moment, the virus cannot pass easily from one person to another. But there are a couple of ways it could evolve to do so. The virus might infect someone already sick with a strain of human flu, and the two viruses could have sex, thus creating a new virus that contains some genes from each. Such viral hanky-panky is thought to have led to the flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968. Or the virus could mutate - acquire accidental changes to its genetic material - in such a way that it becomes able to travel between people. Mutations to an avian flu virus are thought to lie behind the 1918 pandemic. Sex and mutation: these are not special processes reserved for viruses. They are two fundamental mechanisms of evolutionary invention. Mutations alter the information content of genes; sex shuffles the pack, generating new gene combinations. They sound simple, and they are - but don't let that deceive you. Simple processes can have great power. After all, a few mutations to a bird virus could - in the absence of a vaccine - mean the difference between 60 people dead and several million. Now that we can sequence genes and genomes, we know precisely how evolutionary changes accumulate. We know the differences between a fruit fly and a mosquito, between a human and a chimpanzee, between a virus that kills chickens and a virus that kills people. We can see which genes have been changing quickly and which have hardly changed at all. We can see which genes cause populations to diverge and then split into new species. What is more, with genes and genomes we can supersede the often patchy fossil record to look back in time. One day, when the crocodile has joined the chicken in having had its genome sequenced, we'll be able to compare birds and crocodiles - the two closest living relations of Tyrannosaurus and company - and conduct evolutionary detective work, using their genomes to infer the genome of a dinosaur. But the most important point is this: viruses and other pathogens evolve in ways that we can understand and, to some extent, predict. Whether it's preventing a flu pandemic or tackling malaria, we can use our knowledge of evolutionary processes in powerful and practical ways, potentially saving the lives of tens of millions of people. So let's not strip evolution from the textbooks, or banish it from the class, or replace it with ideologies born of wishful thinking. If we do, we might find ourselves facing the consequences of natural selection. Olivia Judson is an evolutionary biologist at Imperial College in London.

Subject: Who Is America's Next Top Model From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 05:42:33 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/fashion/sundaystyles/06model.html November 6, 2005 Who Is America's Next Top Model, Really? By GUY TREBAY THE only authentic mystery behind who will come out on top each season on the UPN hit 'America's Next Top Model' may be how Americans can be willingly gulled into thinking that the result of this deliciously kooky weekly confection is a cliffhanger. Each Wednesday a challenge is posed: Is Nik too shy or Kim too butch or Nicole too passive-aggressive or Lisa too quirky (and sloshed) to make it in the cutthroat world of high fashion modeling? Why, it is a puzzle to test the mettle of Malibu Barbie! The truth at the core of this least-real reality series, now in its fifth season and with nearly five million viewers from the coveted demographic of women age 18 to 34, is that the winner is never Nik or Kim or Nicole or Lisa. It is Tyra Banks, the show's host and producer, a Victoria's Secret beauty with a snap queen's attitude and the entrepreneurial chops of Donald Trump. 'I see girls sitting on the No. 4 train to Brooklyn saying, 'Omigod, I have to get home because the Tyra show is on,' ' said Wayne Sterling, the editor of Models.com, a slick Web site that obsessively rates model status. 'The show has become their spectrum, a Midwest, middle-of-the-road simulation of what the business is like.' What is not apparent to legions of modeling hopefuls, either on the show or out in TV land, is something that modeling business insiders like Nian Fish, creative director of the fashion production house KCD, tend to laugh about. In an industry that is indeed fairly cutthroat, the women who appear on 'America's Next Top Model' would have a tough time wedging a flip-flop in the door of most agencies. There are a few good, simple reasons why the competitors on 'America's Next Top Model' will not become America's next top model, insiders say. For starters they are generally too old to succeed in a field where much of the talent, like the current teenage Australian star Gemma Ward, is recruited out of middle school, explained Cathy Gould, the director of Elite models. And even though, by ordinary standards, the bodies of cast members on the reality show are unobjectionable, they are too plump to succeed in a business where eating disorders are no hindrance to success. In an ironic way, though, the most serious strike against the women may be, like their beauty itself, an unalterable accident of birth. They are American. 'You just can't sell an American model right now because editors completely don't appreciate them,' explained James Scully, a casting agent responsible for discovering many of the quirky, provocative sexpots who helped mold the image of Gucci during the stellar Tom Ford years. 'Americans are just not in.' By American, Mr. Scully meant someone with looks that match traditional American stereotypes. That means clear-skinned women with small, even features and strapping bodies; blondes like Christie Brinkley, Kim Alexis or Lauren Hutton, to name three whose faces dominated magazine covers in the 1970's and 80's; patrician-looking brunettes like Lisa Taylor and Dayle Haddon; or women like Beverly Johnson, whose uncomplicated good looks set a commercial standard for black models once considered hard to employ except as 'exotic' types. Five years ago, answering the question of who, in fact, is America's top model would have been easy: she was a Brazilian. The platoon of pillow-lipped and long-limbed beauties led by Gisele Bündchen appeared so abruptly on the scene that it seemed as though Brazil was some unknown planet suddenly discovered by astronomers combing the cosmic beauty-sphere. The Brazilians quickly came to dominate the worlds of high-paying runway work, along with magazine advertising and editorial assignments that compose the trifecta of a successful career. A top model who wins in all three areas - special bonus awarded for landing a contract as the face of a cosmetics line - can sometimes earn many millions annually, of which roughly 15 percent is kicked back to her agency. Although fashion gives the illusion of being a global business, New York remains the hub for all the largest modeling and advertising agencies and also mass circulation magazines. And it is still the center of image creation, editorial clout and behind-the-scenes wheeling and dealing. Inevitably, whoever is destined to become the Next Big Thing will have to make it here. When the Brazilians' moment in the sun faded, those women were supplanted by Belgians, a raft of wan types with odd all-vowel names, Memling foreheads and what Ms. Fish of KCD described as 'strong walks.' Elise Crombez, for instance, still a reliable presence on the catwalks after several years, often took to the runway with the clipped efficiency of a dental technician late to assist ona root canal. That the reign of the Belgians was so brief had its roots less in changing tastes than the relaxation of international borders. Two years into the hegemony of Ms. Crombez, An Oost, Delfine Bafort and their cohorts, a horde of upstarts swarmed out of the backwaters and satellites of the former Soviet Union seemingly to take over the business. The gates fell as fast as walls and borders had and suddenly teenage giantesses with attenuated limbs and tiny doll heads thronged the runways: lunar blond Latvians, sultry Romanians, pouting Ukrainians and Estonians with flaxen hair and the pale translucence of preemies. If in a sense they all looked unnervingly alike, they were also everywhere. They still are. 'There are so many of them out there because they're dying to get out and they really have the hunger,' explained Ivan Bart, the president of IMG, the industry's top agency. 'It's like they've scrubbed floors back home, watched kids, sold fruit for a living. They want to be models. They're willing to do what it takes, to stand on one foot for 10 hours.' Still, none of these girls, the Hanas and Tiuus and Ingunas and Snejanas, could be deemed America's current top model, or thought of as approaching name-brand celebrity in the way that Cindy Crawford, Christy Turlington or Helena Christensen once did in the 1990's heyday of the supermodel. The slippage can be pegged, in part, to the usual turns in the wheel of fashion and also to the relentless onset of a celebrity culture that keeps editors tyrannized by focus-group polls according to which the least interesting starlet trumps the most glamorous model when it comes to newsstand sales. 'Vogue and Bazaar still believe that all anyone cares about is celebrity,' said Mr. Scully, the casting agent. 'Vogue is going to run a cover of Sienna Miller,' he said of the magazine's December issue, referring to the young actress whose most compelling role seems to be her part as the wronged woman in a sloppy tabloid affair involving a bosomy nanny and Jude Law. 'As far as most Americans are concerned, this woman is famous for dating a man who made three flops in a row,' Ms. Scully said. 'She's roadkill but these editors still insist that she can sell more magazines than a picture of Daria.' Mr. Scully was referring to Daria Werbowy, a model who has been parked, with the brake on, in the No. 1 position on Models.com for months. If anyone qualifies as America's top model right now, it is clearly this 23-year-old tomboy with a rag doll body and a highly pronounced overbite - who comes, it should be noted, from Canada. With a multiyear contract for Lancôme beauty products, campaigns for YSL and Chanel and a runway record that saw her working no fewer than 80 shows one season (for as much as $10,000 per show), she is undoubtedly at the top of her game. So obviously does she lead the pack that, when Ms. Werbowy sat out the spring 2006 runway season in New York, Paris and Milan, her absence had a Garbo effect. It set people whispering about whether Ms. Werbowy had dumped the business, followed Kate Moss into rehab or just disappeared. 'Where is Daria?' became a mantra in front rows at Prada, Gucci, Cavalli, Fendi and Chanel shows, where Ms. Werbowy's feline looks and swaying gait over the past few seasons have added a dash of personality to events that often seem populated by goose-walking corpse brides like the Russian Sasha Pivovarova or strobe-stunned Bambis like Hana Soukupova, a painfully thin teenager from the Czech Republic who is so clearly uneasy in public that it sometimes seems as if an unseen puppeteer is handling her strings. As it happened, Ms. Werbowy gave the runway season a pass in order to film a campaign for Lancôme, but her brief absence gave rise to speculation about who might be next in line atop the model sweepstakes. Where will the real woman come from to claim the prize that 4.7 million viewers of 'America's Next Top Model' believe may go to one of the show's pretty but delusional prospects? 'It's always a cycle and the cycle always changes around,' Mr. Bart of IMG said optimistically. 'Look at Hillary Rhoda,' he added, referring to the 19-year-old with the poise and classic patrician looks of a Fitzgerald heroine. For the spring 2006 season, which ended last month, Mr. Bart took Ms. Rhoda, a leggy brunette and a former field hockey player from Chevy Chase, Md., on the rounds of international casting calls. It was Ms. Rhoda's first season in the business.' I told people 'I've got this great new girl' and I schlepped her to all the top designers,' Mr. Bart said. 'And everywhere I went, everybody humored me and looked at me like I had lost my mind.' In New York and then in Milan, the reception for Ms. Rhoda's All American beauty was underwhelming. Yet then in Paris, in a Horatio Alger twist that would do Ms. Banks proud, Ms. Rhoda was taken to see Nicolas Ghesquiere, the Balenciaga designer and an influential figure. Mr. Ghesquiere immediately chose Ms. Rhoda to walk in his show. And after that, the former Roman Catholic schoolgirl who had been yawned out of appointments with most major designers found herself booked for every blue chip show in town: Dior, Chanel, Chloé, Rochas, YSL and Valentino, where she had the distinction of being the first model on the ramp. When Ms. Rhoda was cast by Marc Jacobs for the Louis Vuitton presentation, it was as if she had received the modeling equivalent of a papal nod. 'I call the way Marc makes models the Pygmalian effect,' Ms. Fish of KCD said. Whether a banner season for one young mannequin augurs a major taste shift in the modeling business and perhaps even a return to what some forecast as a resurgence of classic American sportswear it seems early to predict. 'Does it mean we're going to see a comeback for American models?' Mr. Bart asked. 'Who knows? But I can tell you that nobody but nobody wanted Hillary until Paris, and then Nicolas cast her. And then suddenly this whole American in Paris thing kicked in and she was totally, totally the top girl of the week.'

Subject: Northern Saw-whet Owl with Mouse From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 19:09:07 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.calvorn.com/gallery/photo.php?photo=5822&exhibition=7&u=99|6|... Northern Saw-whet Owl with Mouse New York City--Central Park, The Ramble.

Subject: An Old-Fashioned American Standby From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 11:49:34 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/dining/02joan.html?ex=1288587600&en=d37d644b7d8b921a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 2, 2005 An Old-Fashioned American Standby, Fish Sauce and All By JOAN NATHAN IN my youth, chicken was simple. Usually, it was served on Friday night. Bought whole or cut up to order by local butchers, it was either roasted; baked with a cornflake coating; served cacciatore or à la king; or, as a real treat, Southern-fried. For guests, my mother might prepare chicken with curry, that exotic spice. And on Sunday night there was chicken chop suey at a Chinese restaurant. Chicken remains the great international comfort food. But as the new world of flavor has evolved over the last 40 years, the simple chicken may have changed more than anything else on the American dinner table. There's now an infinite variety of recipes, thanks to immigration and ambitious chefs, and an increasing diversity of chicken itself, thanks to innovative farmers. According to Jim Perdue, chairman of Perdue Farms, in 1970 most chickens were sold whole. 'In those days the butcher would cut up the parts for you,' he told me. 'Ninety percent of the chickens were roasted. Now 10 percent are left whole for roasting.' In the old days you could ask the butcher for the feet for soup; if you were lucky, you might get unlaid yolks left inside the chicken, too. Call it the McNugget Factor. Chicken producers are not only cutting up our chickens, they are boning and skinning them, jobs once left to the neighborhood butcher. The good news is that with increased concerns about health and the growing organic movement, chickens raised compassionately - allowed to roam free, with minimal antibiotics - are available almost everywhere. They are much tastier than the wan-looking birds often found in supermarkets, well worth the higher cost. One of the chicken innovators I have visited is Sylvia Pryzant of Four Story Hill Farm, in Honesdale, Pa. She is known for milk- and corn-fed chickens, which she learned to raise in France. Ms. Pryzant delivers them to chefs like Daniel Boulud, Thomas Keller and Tom Colicchio. 'We are working with an exclusive clientele who have seen everything,' Ms. Pryzant, who was born in Tunisia, said in a soft French accent. 'I am very proud of what the bird does on the farm. The feed is natural, not organic. You don't have to be organic to produce something good. You just have to raise a beautiful animal that blossoms.' For Ms. Pryzant, nothing is as good as a roast chicken sprinkled with the spice mix za'atar and stuffed with garlic, thyme, rosemary and preserved lemon. After peeking into kitchens around the country over the past few years I have dozens of versions of chicken, from Latin America, Europe, Africa and Asia, dishes flavored with lemon grass, sake, fish sauce and cumin-based spice mixes like those made by Badia. My former neighbor Nahid Mohamadi, from Iran, makes fesenjan, a scrumptious chicken stew made with walnuts and pomegranates. 'When I came to America in 1968 as a young bride I craved Persian fesenjan,' Ms. Mohamadi said. 'There weren't any Iranian restaurants in Detroit where I lived, so I had to recreate it in my imagination and in letters from my mother.' It has also become more tempting to have others cook chicken for us. Su-Mei Yu opened a Thai chicken carryout called Saffron in San Diego in 1985. 'Today she is one of our icons,' said Samuel L. Popkin, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. 'Su-Mei is well into her millionth chicken. If you went on a picnic and you had Saffron chicken, you would be in heaven.' Even mainstream chicken places have changed. In Great Neck, N.Y., 'We're having Poultry Mart for dinner!' is a familiar cry. Started by the Honig family as a wholesale market in 1950, Poultry Mart began roasting chickens at the beginning. Its current menu has chicken in nearly every form. It lists chicken pot pies, Brazilian spiced chicken and chicken chimichurri. The Honig family now uses organic, minimally processed birds, delivered each day. Chicken is usually on the Sunday table of Xa and Xia Vang in St. Paul, Minn. - for as many as 60 people from four generations. Three generations of women in this Hmong family were in the kitchen when I visited. Toddlers were toddling, men were sitting and talking, and phones were ringing. The Hmong, a mountain people living in East Asia, assisted United States forces during the Vietnam War. After the Communist takeover, they came to this country in great numbers. One of the dishes the Vangs served was a chicken curry without curry powder, a spicy but subtle stew of fresh vegetables, coconut milk, lime leaves and hot pepper. Chicken for dinner, even for my 92-year-old mother, has certainly come a long way.

Subject: Fed Nominee May Need New Weapons From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 08:40:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/business/04fed.html November 4, 2005 To Fight Rising Prices, Fed Nominee May Need New Weapons By LOUIS UCHITELLE Early in his tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan declared that the risk of too much inflation was so considerable that he would 'err more on the side of restrictiveness than of stimulus.' And he meant it. At his very first meeting, in August 1987, Mr. Greenspan established his inflation-fighting credentials by pushing up short-term interest rates in response to only a modest rise in consumer prices, a move that contributed to the stock market crash just two months later. Ben S. Bernanke, who is expected to take over at the Fed in February, will almost certainly echo Mr. Greenspan's step, raising rates at his first meeting next year, in part to demonstrate his commitment, too, to keeping inflation under control. But for all the similarities of their actions upon taking office, Mr. Bernanke faces a fundamentally different set of circumstances than those that Mr. Greenspan confronted 18 years ago. 'Inflation is clearly not right around the corner like it used to be,' said Edward M. Gramlich, until recently a Fed governor and now interim provost at the University of Michigan. 'The relationships are different, and Mr. Bernanke is going to have to figure them out.' Perhaps the biggest differences are the rise of global production, as well as much easier access to capital, particularly from abroad. Adding to the change is labor's weaker bargaining power. These factors have combined to greatly diminish the force of old-style inflation in which demand outran supply, pushing prices ever higher, and wages, too, until the Fed put the brakes on the economy. Instead, a new style of inflation has emerged as one of the principal threats to the economy. It is evident in the stock market bubble of the late 1990's and in surging home prices in this decade. This asset price spiral, as it is called, has proved much more resistant to the Fed's standard interest rate tool than traditional inflation. Mr. Bernanke, for his part, is known as an advocate of inflation targeting, a technique for adjusting interest rates with the aim of keeping traditional inflationary pressures within a limited range. He has also asserted, like Mr. Greenspan, that he does not intend to use interest rates prematurely to puncture an asset bubble. But he has signaled a readiness to use a different set of tools to fight the new inflation, and in this he departs from Mr. Greenspan. What lifts asset prices, Mr. Bernanke and others argue, is the willingness of lenders to offer riskier types of loans, which 'juice up the housing market and are not very responsive to interest rates,' as Mark Zandi, chief economist at the research firm Economy.com, put it. Lenders can engage in riskier loans because they have developed techniques in recent years that make it far easier for them to shed their vulnerability to risk, doing so mainly by shifting the risk of default to others. The lenders operate in sophisticated markets that allow thousands of individual investors to purchase a slice of the original loan, and a slice of the risk. In the past, the danger of default as rates rose tended to discourage lenders from making overly risky loans. The lender, often a bank, kept the loan and bore all the risk. Mr. Bernanke, in response to the risk shifting, has raised the possibility of limiting the dangers through the use of regulations - microregulatory policy, he calls it. 'There are two ways to approach bubbles: one is interest rate policy, the other is microregulatory policy,' he said in a little noted interview published last year by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. 'Microregulatory policy is the much better approach, in my view,' Mr. Bernanke said. Pursuing his point, he added: 'Research on historical episodes suggests that large asset price increases are sometimes preceded by credit booms. In many cases, this pattern results from the fact that the country in question deregulated its banking system, giving banks extra powers, but did not enhance the supervisory structure adequately at the same time.' The surge in oil and gas prices is another big source of inflation that Mr. Greenspan did not have to deal with in his early days as chairman, and through most of his tenure. Many economists argue that rising interest rates are a double-edged sword under such circumstances. They note that higher fuel prices do not blunt the demand for petroleum products. Rather than cut back on purchases of gasoline and heating oil, consumers offset the rising cost by cutting back first on other purchases: automobiles and appliances, for example. That slows the economy. Rising interest rates encourage this cutback, slowing the economy even more. 'Whereas in 1987, it was clear that the way to combat inflation was to raise interest rates,' said Brian Sack, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers who once wrote a research paper with Mr. Bernanke, 'today the Fed's policy makers have to be cognizant that the higher energy prices are slowing the economy' on their own. Not that Mr. Bernanke would be less diligent than Mr. Greenspan in resorting to interest rates to prevent inflationary expectations from creeping back into consumer and business behavior. That happens when prices rise unchecked, as they did during the oil shocks of the 1970's, encouraging people to buy more to avoid paying higher prices later. The stepped-up demand only encourages more price increases, and then wage increases to keep up with the price increases, until the Fed, in response, pushes interest rates so high that the economy is knocked flat on its back and demand finally is punctured. Paul A. Volcker took this route as Fed chairman in the 1980's; so did his successor, Mr. Greenspan, who pushed up rates to nearly 10 percent in his first three years, helping to provoke the early 90's recession, which further reduced the inflation rate. Mr. Bernanke has no intention of reversing these gains. 'Inflation-averse central bankers,' he said in a speech last fall, while he was serving as a Fed governor, before shifting to chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, are 'likely to contribute to increased central bank credibility and hence better policy outcomes.' But his world is different from Mr. Volcker's and Mr. Greenspan's. They dealt with a more closed, less global economy. If the nation's manufacturers were running their factories flat out, using all their productive capacity, and were still unable to meet demand, the shortages were considered inflationary. That made capacity utilization a much-discussed concept in Mr. Greenspan's early days. It is now rarely mentioned, for good reason. The output - the capacity - of other countries pours into the United States. In 1987, factories in this country supplied nearly 95 percent of what Americans consumed; today they furnish less than 80 percent. Another pillar of old-time inflation was wage pressure that intensified as unemployment fell. Not long after Mr. Greenspan became chairman, the jobless rate dropped below 6 percent and kept falling, a traditional signal that a shortage of workers would give them leverage to negotiate higher wages. Economists argued endlessly about how low the unemployment rate could go before inflation began to accelerate, pushed along by rising wages. They referred to this balancing act as the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, another economic concept seldom mentioned today. The trade-off reflected labor shortages that have since diminished as additional production of goods and services has shifted abroad, in effect globalizing the nation's labor supply. The unemployment rate has held below 5.5 percent since February, but instead of rising, median wages - adjusted for inflation - have fallen. The Fed's policy makers also responded much more in the late 80's to what they perceived as a potential shortage of capital. The concern was that American investors could not easily finance the Reagan administration's rising budget deficit and also the credit needs of the private sector. The competition for the limited supply of funds came to be known as 'crowding out,' another concept now discarded as foreigners, particularly the Chinese, pour their savings into Treasury securities. In 1987, 15 percent of all Treasuries were owned by foreigners; today 45 percent are. 'It may have been the case,' Mr. Gramlich said, 'that when the Fed tightened, the higher rates would crowd out some investment. Now you don't have that effect. Rates rise and you suck in more capital.' To be sure, the gradual shift to a more global economy and the vast expansion of global capital markets have not left the central bank with no inflation to fight. But the dynamics have changed. 'Sometimes people ignore the rest of the world and think of the United States as an isolated island,' said Alan S. Blinder, an economist at Princeton University and a Fed governor in the Greenspan era. 'That is clearly incorrect. 'Or you can view the United States as a big cork bobbing in a figurative sea that is the global economy,' Mr. Blinder added. 'That is also incorrect.'

Subject: The real measure of wealth - Not GLD From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 07:26:50 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I remember someone saying real wealth was the measure of resources a country/business had and the ability of its citizens/workers to put them to productive use for the benefit of all. It seems here in america we are not staying competitive. We are still a nation of great resources but not as effective as other countries in putting them to use on the global market. A dollar devaluation may help. Also I believe ineterest rates are very ineffective compared to 20 years ago - derivatives and globalization have changed the game. Foreigners and FCB's control our dollar value now - when they no longer want it, it will fall - perhaps fast and hard - the fed will just stand by and watch. This should not be something we fight, I agree with richard benson, sacrifice the dollar at the altar and become competitive again. As Terri said about the british and french dollars - this will help ease tension. As Pete says - invest perhaps expecting a large decline in the value of the dollar over the coming years. My fundamental problem with GOLD is that right now I can take capital and allocate to companies in the nanotech or biotech field that can do research and make the world a better place for all of us. Or even take capital and allocate to community colleges and education programs to make better citizens. Buying GOLD however - doesn't seem to do much for mankind universally even though personally it may make me rich in monetary wealth. For this reason last year I sold my GOLD. Now you see NY Times showing the bad effects of gold mining on people - I am not so sure this is not propoganda from higher powers to make people hate this industry. Seems the timing of these articles is funny - however I agree with thier thrust no matter the propoganda. Buying GOLD and having a world where people value that as a mechanism for trade may seem SAFE to some - but fundamentally I don't see how allocating our capital towards shiny metal does much for making people live longer, happier lives.

Subject: Tutor's Hand in Applicant's Essay From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 08:37:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/nyregion/02essay.html November 2, 2005 Detecting Tutor's Hand in Applicant's Essay By KATE STONE LOMBARDI It is the bane of college admissions officers: the highly polished, professionally edited personal essay that barely reflects the thinking or writing, let alone the personality, of a 17-year-old high school student. 'If it sounds like it was written by a 42-year-old attorney, chances are it was written by a 42-year-old attorney,' said Lee Stetson, dean of admissions at the University of Pennsylvania. Now colleges have a new tool to help them discern how much help students are getting on their applications: the SAT. Since March, the SAT has included a 25-minute essay section. When reviewing an application, colleges can easily download the test essay from the College Board, obtaining a sample of the student's unedited writing. Many colleges say they plan to do so, at least in cases where there are questions about a student's writing aptitude. In a survey of 374 top colleges and universities conducted by Kaplan, the test preparation company, 58 percent said they would use the SAT essay to evaluate whether students had received outside help on their application essays in cases where there appeared to be discrepancies in the applicants' writing levels. Thirteen percent said they would compare the essays for all applicants. 'What that is saying is, 'We know there are a lot of cooks in the soup on these application essays, and we want to make sure that the writing that you are able to produce on your own can keep up with that polished writing,' ' said Jennifer Caran, national director for SAT and ACT programs for Kaplan. Dan Saracino, the assistant provost at the University of Notre Dame, said that when the first batch of the March SAT's became available, he went online to look at the writing samples. 'I did compare the online written essay and the personal essay, and you can see the connection, and you can see when it's a forced style that's been taught by a tutor,' Mr. Saracino said. At Notre Dame, not every applicant's SAT essay will be reviewed, but the test may well be downloaded when there are questions about writing ability, Mr. Saracino said. Given the volume of college applications, the two writing samples will not be routinely compared at most schools. But in an increasingly competitive market, the essays of borderline students are more likely to be reviewed. 'We will use them on an individual basis as we need to use them,' said Marlyn McGrath Lewis, director of admissions at Harvard College. 'If we wanted to get a better sense of how somebody actually expressed something in his or her own words, we certainly know where we could go to extend our understanding.' Harvard is aware that some applicants get much more help than others on their applications, Ms. McGrath Lewis said. 'At Harvard, we try very hard not to over-reward extra preparation,' she said. 'We try not to base the admissions decision on someone being the perfectly buffed-up applicant.' Margit A. Dahl, the director of undergraduate admissions at Yale, said the university had no intention of reviewing 20,000 SAT essays. But in instances where there is a question about writing - for example, if a personal essay is well written, but the writing score on the SAT is low - admissions officers may download the SAT essay. 'You can certainly tell if there are serious grammatical glitches in the essay that was written in 25 minutes, and that means that without help, this student has some real trouble with writing,' Ms. Dahl said. Some argue that comparing the two essays is unfair. A student has far more time to polish an application essay than to burnish a 25-minute response. But educators make the case that basic writing and organizational skills should be consistent between the two samples. 'Schools recognize that this is a first draft and not polished work,' said Ms. Caran of Kaplan, a former English teacher. 'They want to get a sense of the students' innate writing abilities, to understand the students' thought processes and ability to express themselves, and whether that expression of thought is compatible with what they are saying in the application.' Complex sentence structure, the proper use of advanced vocabulary and clear expression should all be consistent between the two samples, she said. But even a student's work on an SAT essay can be coached, as Ms. Caran points out. Students can be taught how to write a persuasive essay under time pressure, using organizational tips and practice, she said. But admissions officers say they can see through that, too. 'You can see the canned responses,' said Mr. Saracino, of Notre Dame. 'It doesn't take a rocket scientist to identify that this is a pat response that is a result of Kaplan.'

Subject: Speaking in the Third Person From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:56:56 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/health/psychology/01case.html?ex=1288501200&en=90f9f62db9d46d51&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 Speaking in the Third Person, Removed From Reality By KEITH ABLOW, M.D. Almost from the moment he walked into my office, something bothered me about my 18-year-old patient, Mark, sent to see me by his parents after they found marijuana and steroids in his bedroom. He was tall and muscular, with tousled, dirty-blonde hair, outfitted in a faded T-shirt emblazoned with the words 'Sunset Strip,' distressed jeans made to look threadbare at midthigh and along the edges of the pockets and a 70's retro leather choker with a few clay beads on it. A shiny silver bolt pierced his left brow. He shook my hand and introduced himself with a smile, then sat down in the suede armchair opposite me, his legs outstretched, his ankles crossed. 'So tell me what's going on,' I said. 'I'm in a serious jam, man,' he said. 'I think I need rehab to get my life back. You know?' He didn't sound upset about it. 'What have you lost?' I asked him. 'Got two weeks?' He chuckled. 'I'm listening.' 'I don't know if I ought to head to rehab or really go deep into analysis with you or what,' he said. 'Or maybe we just go the Prozac route.' 'You think you're depressed?' I asked. 'Hard to say.' He shrugged. 'I'm kind of like the quiet guy who goes to the gym, you know, keeps to himself, maybe hooks up with a girl here and there, but doesn't make a big deal of it. He's, like, sort of on the outside looking in, never letting anything get him too down.' Mark's lapse into the third person - 'He's ... on the outside, looking in' - helped me realize what had disturbed me about him from the start. He seemed fake, as if playing a role. He showed no anxiety or sadness or anger. He spoke in clichés. I'm in a ... jam. I need ... to get my life back. Got two weeks? His hair looked intentionally messy. Everything about him, down to his carefully chosen, probably pricey, 'worn out' clothing felt scripted. I have treated several other teenagers this year who display a similar kind of profound detachment from self. It is a kind of identity disorder I believe has its roots in a society that has drifted free from reality and is creating adolescents (and, I would venture, people of many ages) who are at most participant-observers in their own lives, with little genuine emotion - like actors playing themselves. The signs and symptoms of this identity disorder are everywhere. Teenagers are embracing lies on a wholesale (and retail) scale. They not only buy clothing made to look old when it is new, but they buy T-shirts emblazoned with logos from bars and bait shops and resorts they have never visited, and that sometimes don't exist at all. More and more, they use illicit substances and alcohol to keep their genuine feelings at bay. They use steroids (and plastic surgery) to alter their appearances and athletic abilities. Their self-esteem floats ever higher, untethered even when their academic performance and family relationships and prospects for the future sink to new lows. They pierce themselves and tattoo themselves and have sex more and earlier, in what I see as desperate efforts to anchor themselves to some sort of reality - the reality of the flesh. If a teenager can feel a steel bolt through her tongue move whenever she speaks, at least she knows she inhabits her own body, even if she doubts her own soul. If she can use low-cut jeans or a glimpse of thong underwear to attract glances from boys around her, at least she knows she occupies space and time at the center of their attention. The soil for this detachment from self has been sown for decades, partly by psychiatry itself. By not opposing vigorously enough the dangerous myth that psychoactive medications are a complete answer to depression and anxiety, we have allowed the idea to take root that we need not heed our emotions as evidence of life crises with real and crucial meaning, that we should turn off our inner voices and 'listen to Prozac,' instead. The growth of technology has cleaved us from the reality of self, as well. We say that we are 'going' places on the Internet without ever leaving the room. In elaborate Internet-based games, people pay thousands of dollars to own 'real estate' that isn't real at all. We watch newscasters (who increasingly could double as models or comedians) report on terrible tragedies, then shift gears and joke about the weather or a baseball game. And we learn to mirror them, to respond to our own losses like channels we can change. We can wage wars that kill tens of thousands of people with 'smart' bombs. But we see little, if any, blood. And we can count the dead between episodes of our favorite sitcoms. We sit still for a cloudy sense of whether our president was elected to his first term. Then the president in the television drama 'West Wing' delivers a political statement about the war in Iraq, and people actually pay attention. A senator appears as himself in the film 'Traffic,' in which Michael Douglas is the nation's drug czar. Unless Mr. Douglas really is ... The trouble with all this is that the truth always wins. Reality will not be frustrated forever. You have to pay back emotional debt, like the national debt, with interest. A crushing major depression lies in wait for Mark, if I fail to help him face whatever demons from the past drove him away from reality, to drugs. Ever-increasing rates of substance abuse and attention-deficit disorder and depression lie in wait for adolescents emerging into adulthood. And, in not many decades, our nation's sense of itself will, inescapably, depend on theirs.

Subject: But Will It Stop Cancer? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:54:34 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/science/01canc.html?ex=1288501200&en=6b1910c8d232f318&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 But Will It Stop Cancer? By GINA KOLATA Bernyce Edwards's daughter was 42 in 1997 when she died of breast cancer. It was just 69 days from diagnosis to death. And through her shock and grief, Ms. Edwards had a terrible worry: what if she got breast cancer, too? 'That's my biggest fear,' she said. So, to protect herself, she has taken up exercise. And not just any exercise. This 73-year-old woman has turned into an exercise zealot. She walks, she runs, she leaves her house in Bellingham, Wash., as early as 5 a.m. and spends an hour every day, rain or shine, putting in the miles on the trails and around a lake. But will her efforts help? Medical researchers agree that, at the very least, regular exercise can make people feel better and feel better about themselves. There is less agreement on whether it can also prevent cancer. But for two types, the evidence is promising: breast cancer and cancer of the colon. Other cancers have not been studied, or the studies that have been done have yielded little evidence that exercise can help. Even for breast and colon cancer, further confirmation is needed. Researchers who are enthusiastic about a cancer-exercise connection also caution against too much enthusiasm. Exercise is like a seat belt, says Dr. Anne McTiernan of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, a co-author of 'Breast Fitness: An Optimal Exercise and Health Plan for Reducing Your Risk of Breast Cancer.' 'It's not a guarantee, but it can reduce your risk,' Dr. McTiernan said. 'The negative side is when a person says, 'The reason I got cancer is that I didn't exercise.' That's the problem.' Dr. Brian Henderson, dean of the University of Southern California's Keck School of Medicine, knows just where the idea that exercise might prevent breast cancer came from. It was an extrapolation from an observation, and from the start it was filled with untested assumptions. He knows this, Dr. Henderson said, because it included work that originated with his research group. He began with the observation that exercise could affect when girls started to menstruate. For menstruation to begin, girls must be eating more calories than they burn, Dr. Henderson said. Adolescent girls who exercise strenuously often do not eat enough to make up for the extra calories they are using, and as a result, they may start menstruating later than more sedentary girls. Researchers also knew that the older a girl was when she started to menstruate, the lower her risk of eventually developing breast cancer, Dr. Henderson said, and 'that's where the idea came from that exercise might affect risk for breast cancer.' The question was whether they could document it. Dr. Henderson knew the problems with such studies. 'It's hard to measure exercise,' he said. Researchers can ask people to recall how much they exercised, but their answers may not be accurate. And it is almost impossible to account for incidental activities, like walking up a flight of stairs, that can cause one person to get more total daily exercise than another. 'We all go around in circles: isn't there a better way to measure this?' Dr. Henderson said. Another problem for researchers is the timing of exercise. Is it important throughout life? Only in young adulthood? Or is it as effective to start to exercise in middle age, when breast cancer risk rises? The best test of the exercise hypothesis would be to assign thousands of people randomly either to exercise or not exercise and then follow them for years, keeping track of cancer diagnoses as they occur. But, researchers say, not only would such a study be expensive - the exercise groups would need constant support, and researchers would have to monitor how much they were exercising - but volunteers would be unlikely to comply with their assigned regimens. Telling someone to exercise or to remain sedentary for years is not like telling her to take a pill. The alternative is to look at populations of people who did or did not exercise and try to correct for factors that might be linked to exercise and to cancer. Exercisers might be thinner, for example, and if they had a lower incidence of breast cancer it might be body weight, not exercise, that was responsible. Study after study was conducted: some found small protective effects of exercise on breast cancer; others found none. Now, in Dr. Henderson's opinion, there is no point in continuing to ask the same question in the same ways. 'We've pretty much settled the issue that there is a small effect,' he said. The effect, Dr. Henderson added, is so small, that even if it is real, it makes little difference to an individual woman. In one of his studies, the effect of exercise was so small that if he took into account alcohol consumption - which has been associated with a slightly increased breast cancer risk - the exercise effect went away. 'If you are going to exercise, there are other good reasons,' Dr. Henderson says. 'But protection from breast cancer is not one of them.' Dr. McTiernan has a different view. Instead of continuing to ask if there is a correlation between exercise and breast cancer, she said, she has been asking, 'What are the biochemical changes that occur with exercise and could they affect a woman's risk?' In Dr. McTiernan's studies, she randomly assigned overweight postmenopausal women to exercise for an hour a day, six days a week, or not to exercise. And she kept track of the levels of sex hormones - estrogens and androgens - in their blood. After menopause, women's estrogens and androgens are mostly synthesized by an enzyme in body fat. The more fat a woman has, the more hormones she makes. Exercise can reduce fat levels, and so it may reduce hormone levels and thereby lower breast cancer risk. The results of the study were as Dr. McTiernan might have predicted: women who lost fat had lower hormone levels and those who did not lose fat did not. On average, the exercisers lost about three pounds of fat over the yearlong study; the more fat they lost, the more their hormone levels dropped. Nearly a third lost at least 2 percent of their fat - about 4 pounds for a typical woman in the study, who weighed 180 pounds at the start and whose body was 47 percent fat. That modest loss in fat was accompanied by a 10 percent drop in estrogen levels, nearly twice what would have been expected if they had lost the same amount of weight with diet alone, Dr. McTiernan said. That is enough of a hormone drop to be associated with a decreased breast cancer risk, she added. Such studies, of course, do not prove that exercise prevents breast cancer. But, Dr. McTiernan said, finding biochemical changes that are consistent with a protective effect at least gives some plausibility to the findings from the population studies. 'It makes us more confident that exercise is working,' she said. While the link between breast cancer and exercise sprang from observation, the notion that exercise and colon cancer might be related came out of the blue. And epidemiologists and statisticians laughed when they first heard it. The idea originated about 20 years ago when Dr. David Garabrant, now a professor of occupational medicine and epidemiology at the University of Michigan, was a young assistant professor at U.S.C. Dr. Garabrant was interested in cancer epidemiology and, in particular, a cancer registry that Dr. Henderson had started and that kept track of all the cases of cancer in Los Angeles County. 'Our statisticians used to do computer runs, looking at cancer by age and ethnicity, and we used to look through these big computer printouts asking, 'Do we see anything interesting?' ' Dr. Garabrant recalled. 'One day we were looking through the cancer risks for various occupations and we noticed that all the jobs where people sat around had higher rates,' he said. 'I said, 'Gee, that's interesting.' So we came up with a rating scheme and we grouped occupations according to how active they were - sedentary, moderately active or an active job.' Then, Dr. Garabrant said, he examined the colon cancer data. Sure enough, there was a direct relationship between exercise and illness. The more active the job, the less likely its holder was to have colon cancer. 'I presented it at a department meeting and they laughed at me; they hooted,' Dr. Garabrant said. He added: 'This was a department made up of epidemiologists and statisticians. They just razzed me. 'Come on!' ' But it turned out that he was right. Now, Dr. Garabrant says, he knows of at least 50 studies, all of them showing the same relationship between exercise and colon cancer. 'Everyone who has data that allows them to look for it finds it,' he said. Others researchers agree. In fact, said Dr. John Baron, an epidemiologist at Dartmouth Medical School, there have now been so many studies of colon cancer and exercise that the issue is no longer whether there is a correlation. There is. Now, Dr. Baron said, the main issue is what does the correlation mean and why is it occurring. He and others worry that the interpretation of such studies can be confounded, because people who exercise are often different from people who do not exercise in many other ways, as well. 'Who has very active jobs? Probably poor people who aren't making a lot of money. Who joins health clubs?' Dr. Baron said. 'Well, these other characteristics may be important.' Researchers take into account every factor like this that they can think of. But, Dr. Baron said, 'The problem is the things we're not smart enough to know about, the things we haven't even thought of.' He said he remembered studies of colon cancer and dietary fiber. Some studies of populations found that the more fiber a person ate, the lower the risk for colon cancer. But two large studies that randomly assigned people to eat lots of fiber or stay away from it found no protective effect. On the other hand, noted Dr. Robert Sandler, a gastroenterologist at the University of North Carolina, the finding that people who took aspirin on a regular basis had less colon cancer, also from population studies, was supported by a large study that he directed. In it, people were randomly assigned to take aspirin or not take aspirin. So is exercise like fiber or is it like aspirin? Medical researchers may never know. There are animal studies, but it is hard to know what they mean. With cancer, Dr. Baron said, 'sometimes animal studies are right on the money and sometimes they're not.' The problem, he added, 'is that you don't know which is which.' Still, Dr. Baron said, with the possible exception of over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs like aspirin, nothing has been so strongly associated with reduced risk of colon cancer as exercise. And he said he thinks it makes sense to counsel patients who are at risk of colon cancer to exercise. There, is, however, one problem: Doctors say that it is so hard to persuade most patients to exercise that many do not even try. Dr. Sandler said he sees patients right after they have had a colonoscopy, a screening test for cancer that looks for small growths, polyps, in the colon. Although most polyps are not cancerous, most colon cancer starts with a polyp, and so patients with polyps are at increased risk. Doctors cut polyps out in a colonoscopy but more can grow back. So patients with polyps are often frightened, and they ask what could have caused the polyps and how they can protect themselves from colon cancer. Dr. Sandler suggests aspirin and he suggests exercise. 'I'm pretty confident it will work,' Dr. Sandler said of the exercise prescription. But, he adds, most patients dismiss that advice. 'They kind of blow me off,' he said. Dr. John Min, an internist in private practice in Burlington, N. C., loves exercise - he runs in marathons - and he believes it can improve health and possibly protect people from colon and breast cancer. But he does not even mention it to his patients as a way to protect against those cancers. 'Unfortunately, trying to get patients, even those who are very interested, to start exercising is very difficult,' he says. He said he has tried, and patients have left his office seeming excited about turning their life around. But they soon return to their sedentary ways. 'This is unfortunately what I have realized,' Dr. Min said. 'The ability for someone to significantly change their lifestyle, which they've lived with for years, is extremely difficult unless it is personally important to them. I can't make it personally important to them in the time of an office visit.' Once in a while, though, someone who never thought they wanted to exercise takes it up out of fear of cancer and discovers that they love it. That happened with Ms. Edwards, who worries about breast cancer but says her life is so much better now that she is active. John Knudson, a 58-year-old mathematics instructor at Seattle Central Community College had a similar experience. Mr. Knudson had never really been a regular exerciser. He would sometimes play soccer on the weekends, he said, but 'I would play one day and hurt for four days.' Then, about five years ago, Mr. Knudson had a colonoscopy. Mr. Knudson had polyps, lots of them. 'I remember my gastroenterologist, when he was doing it, said, 'Well, you're a regular polyp farm,' ' Mr. Knudson said. Soon afterward, he got a letter from his gastroenterologist asking him to be in another of Dr. McTiernan's studies - a one-year study at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center that would randomly assign people like him, with lots of polyps and so a high risk for colon cancer, to exercise vigorously for a year or to remain sedentary. As in the breast cancer study, the idea in this research was to track biochemical changes with exercise to see if they were related to cancer. In the case of colon cancer, the researchers were looking for prostaglandins, insulin and insulin-like growth factor, all proteins that have been associated with colon cancer risk. And they were looking for small molecules that have been associated with cell growth, reasoning that excessive growth might indicate cancer risk. Mr. Knudson agreed to participate in the study. He was assigned to the exercise group, and he discovered he loved running. Dr. McTiernan says she and her colleagues are still analyzing their data from the study and so it is not clear yet whether there is a biochemical explanation for the colon cancer connection. But Mr. Knudson has gone beyond his original reason for exercising. Running has become his passion. Years after the study ended, Mr. Knudson is now running in half marathons. His polyp problem has gone away, although, he says, he has no idea if it was the exercise or whether his doctor just cut out all the polyps the first time and they have not had a chance to grow back. In any event, he said, 'The polyp farm is kind of dormant.' Some of the other study participants had trouble with the exercise program, he noted. 'It was a big commitment.' But not for him. 'I like the freedom I get running,' he said. 'I like the feeling that I can pick up and run somewhere. It's kind of exhilarating.'

Subject: At Tokyo Auto Show From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:46:56 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/business/04hybrid.html November 4, 2005 At Tokyo Auto Show, a Focus on Fuel, Not Fenders By JAMES BROOKE TOKYO - From Mazda's car that promises to use hydrogen to run a rotary engine to a General Motors sports utility vehicle powered by fuel cells, carmakers are competing at the Tokyo Motor Show to send car buyers a message: They have learned the lessons of the Prius. But while Toyota has clearly hit a car industry nerve with the Prius, its gasoline-electric hybrid, Toyota's influence goes only so far. As one automaker after another made clear at the auto show, which runs through Nov. 6, Toyota is not setting a universal standard for new technologies. It may be setting the pace, but mostly what it has shown is that high gasoline prices have made buyers more open-minded to alternatives. 'There is not going to be a one-size-fits-all solution,' Richard Parry-Jones, Ford's chief technical officer, said when asked if an industry standard would emerge for hybrids. 'We are in for a fairly confusing decade.' Here at the show, Toyota itself displayed its Fine-X, a fuel cell concept vehicle powered by an electric battery and a low-pollution hydrogen cell. At the Mazda stand, models in miniskirts draped themselves over the Premacy, a minivan with a rotary engine fueled by hydrogen that is supposed to go on sale in the United States as early as 2008. In another hall, executives from General Motors, still the world's largest carmaker, posed for photographers in front of the Sequel, a sport utility vehicle that represents a technological leap over hybrids. 'We believe we can design and validate a competitive fuel cell propulsion system by 2010,' Lawrence D. Burns, G.M.'s vice president for research and development, said before showing reporters the prototype. In an interview, he sniped at hybrids, citing their expensive prices and the limits to their efficiency. 'Hybrids could be another niche, low-volume technology that is nice to have,' he said. 'But is that going to make an impact if you are not penetrating the 64 million new cars and trucks?' The main target for hybrids is the United States, a market that accounts for the bulk of worldwide profits for Toyota and Honda. The two companies are locked in a serious race on hybrids, with Toyota playing the hare and Honda contending that the tortoise will ultimately win the race. Honda expects to sell about 50,000 hybrids in the United States in 2005; Toyota is aiming to sell 100,000 Prius cars alone. Toyota is also selling smaller numbers of hybrids in a couple of sport utility vehicle models. 'We have sort of a submarine program, we are not getting the limelight,' said David Iida, a spokesman for Honda's American subsidiary. 'But in the long run, it will be very interesting to see who comes out ahead.' Toyota hopes that the runaway sales success of the Prius will allow it to push hybrids into large volume production. In 2006, Toyota plans to increase worldwide Prius production to 400,000, from 300,000 in 2005. By the end of the decade, Toyota expects to be selling one million hybrids worldwide. By ramping up production of hybrids, Toyota aims to cut costs for batteries, electric motors and other parts. In turn, Toyota and Honda say they hope to reduce the cost of a hybrid car to that of a standard gasoline-powered car in the same time period. 'To make it really work, the cost has to be cut in half,' said John W. Mendel, a senior vice president at Honda's American subsidiary. 'The cost of the batteries is very high. We fortunately control the cost of the C.P.U., the electric motor.' Toyota and Honda, meanwhile, want to persuade buyers to pay a premium for hybrid technology. In April, Toyota began selling the Lexus RX 400h, a hybrid version of its luxury sport utility vehicle, in the United States; Toyota Highlanders are also available with hybrid engines. Next spring, Toyota plans to start selling its Lexus GS 450h, a luxury hybrid sedan, in the United States. 'Toyota is looking to do with hybrids what Volvo did with safety, trying to get people to pay more for hybrids,' Christopher Richter, an auto research analyst at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, said after touring the motor show. 'It is very similar to the debate a couple years back, whether you want to have air bags or not. American automakers were fighting it tooth and nail. Volvo got people to pay for it.' Some American drivers are already paying several thousand dollars more for the cachet of driving a car powered by what is seen as a technology of the future. 'Judging by the vanity plates in California - 'Saving More,' 'Low Mileage' - hybrid is a badge of honor that people want to wear,' said Mr. Mendel, who was visiting from Los Angeles. 'Hydrogen is the path to the future. But, on the way to hydrogen, hybrid is an alternative.' California's strict air quality rules are reaching across the Pacific to spur many of the technological innovations here. In November, Mazda's first hybrid powertrain will be installed in its Tribute sport utility vehicle; it is to go into use at 25 American fire departments, largely in California. Sales to the general public are expected in 2008. Until recently, Nissan Motor, Japan's second-largest car company after Toyota, resisted investing heavily in hybrid technology, preferring to research low-pollution and high-efficiency engines powered by diesel, the fuel that powers about half the new cars sold in Europe. But at this show, Nissan's chief executive, Carlos Ghosn - who denounced hybrids in the summer as uneconomical - carefully refrained from making another frontal attack. Nissan, bowing to the public interest in saving fuel through hybrids, is to release a version for its Altima in 2006. 'We don't know where the markets are going,' Mr. Ghosn told reporters. Carmakers have to 'prepare the technology and jump when consumers start to think one way or another.' Hyundai, another skeptic, also plans to offer its first hybrid, a new version of its Accent subcompact, which will go on sale in South Korea in 2006 and in the United States by 2008. 'We are doing a slow pedal on hybrids, because there is skepticism as to whether this is the way,' said Oles Roman Gadacz, a spokesman for Hyundai, South Korea's largest carmaker. 'There are existing top-shelf, very price-competitive technologies that can squeeze another 20 percent out of fuel consumption. We are convinced that diesel has greater potential than the hybrid.' Ford, while protectively licensing some Toyota patents, is investing heavily in creating and controlling its own hybrid technology. Under the advertising slogan 'Innovation is our mission,' Ford has set a goal of producing 250,000 hybrids a year by 2010. Even earlier, it plans to build 250,000 vehicles in 2006 that can run on ethanol. 'In the case of hybrid technology, there are large numbers of foreign patents,' Mr. Parry-Jones of Ford said here. 'But contrary to what has been in the media, Ford is relying largely on American homegrown hybrid technology.' Citing competitive reasons, car company executives declined to say how much they were spending on developing hybrids. Toyota, the industry leader, is believed to have spent hundreds of millions of dollars. General Motors, seeking to share high development costs, has formed a research alliance with DaimlerChrysler and BMW. 'Toyota is at this moment skimming off all the altruistic people who are doing it for the birds and the bees and for energy independence,' Bob Lutz, G.M.'s vice chairman, told reporters in Detroit in September. That kind of fierce competition will be the hallmark of the brewing battle over alternate engine systems. 'The consumer has not chosen the preferred alternate technology,' said Simon Sproule, a Nissan spokesman. 'We are developing all the technologies: hybrid, fuel cell, diesel.' Mr. Mendel of Honda said: 'The long ball could be a diesel-electric hybrid, a natural gas-electric hybrid, it could be bio-fuel. But by 2010, a fairly significant percentage of vehicles will have engine technologies operating on fuels other than gasoline.' No matter the path, analysts say, the surging auto demand from fast-developing countries like China, India and Brazil is forcing carmakers to look seriously beyond gasoline and diesel fuel, which are increasingly expensive and are big producers of the gases that contribute to global warming. Goldman Sachs has forecast that the number of cars in China could rise from 12 million in 2004 to 500 million by 2050; in India, the number of cars could increase even faster, from 5 million to 600 million. 'China, in automotive terms,' Lyric Hughes Hale, publisher of the China Online news service, said here, 'means the death of the internal combustion engine.'

Subject: Investors Look at China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:44:59 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/technology/04venture.html November 4, 2005 Excited and Wary, Investors Look at China By JOHN MARKOFF SAN FRANCISCO WHEN Joe Schoendorf, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, was in Shanghai a few years ago to hear a pitch from a Chinese start-up company, he sensed something familiar. He interrupted the meeting, walked to the window and pulled back the curtains. 'What are you looking for?' he remembers the would-be entrepreneurs asking. 'I just wanted to make sure I was in China and not back in Palo Alto,' he responded. China's high-technology community, with its brains and competitive spirit, is probably more like its counterpart in Silicon Valley than any other in the world. Yet Silicon Valley's views of investment in China have tended to swing between wild optimism and deep anxiety - with the anxiety going beyond a fear of losing money. Some worry about helping Chinese start-ups move up the technology food chain. These days, the Valley venture capitalists are sharply divided in two camps: one rushing into China and one holding back. 'The Valley is excited and it's scared at the same time,' said Richard Shaffer, editor in chief of VentureWire, a venture capital newsletter publisher. The dominant perspective is that China is a vast sea of opportunity, from its low-cost skilled labor pool to its enormous consumer market that is more than one billion strong. In fact, it is now routine for venture investors to demand that their start-up firms place the bulk of software development and manufacturing efforts in China or India. (A supply chain problem at a manufacturing arm in China, however, can easily ruin financial results in any given quarter.) For China skeptics, the concern is that American investment will help energize a formidable competitor, which could come to dominate both markets and technologies. The fear is based in the Valley's complex relationship with China as supplier, partner, customer and competitor. Most venture capitalists say this evolving relationship will define the future of the Valley and maybe even technology development in the United States. The Ningbo Bird Company is one case in point. It went from being a contract manufacturing supplier for Motorola to being a serious rival in the Chinese handset market in a matter of a few years. Still, last year, most of the Valley seemed to throw caution aside as venture firms invested nearly $1.3 billion in China, up nearly 30 percent from 2003, according to Zero2IPO, a venture capital research and consulting company based in Beijing. But in the first half of this year, investment slowed drastically after several changes in Chinese securities regulations. Those new rules caused 'a decline of 50 percent in the first two quarters,' said Dixon Doll, managing director of Doll Capital Management, based in Menlo Park, Calif. The lull is ending, though, in part because of the high-profile success of the initial public offering of Baidu, a Chinese search engine company that was able to raise $86.6 million in August, and a securities rule change in October. In September, Sequoia Capital, a major backer of Google, was reported to be planning a $200 million fund and hiring several employees in China. That announcement followed an earlier joint agreement this summer by Accel Partners, a leading Silicon Valley firm, and the International Data Group to set up a $250 million fund. There have even been reports recently that Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, the Valley's highest-profile venture firm, was creating its own China fund, though people briefed on the firm's plans said that was not true. While Kleiner has recently added Colin L. Powell as a partner to serve as a 'rainmaker' in Asia, it remains concerned about changes in Chinese security laws that could complicate the return of investment funds to the United States. Mr. Schoendorf, who is an Accel partner, sees benefits in helping China to become a fierce new competitor. He likens this moment of anxiety and promise to the 1970's, when Japan began to compete successfully with the United States. 'The Chinese graduate more engineers than we do,' he said. 'They're smart, they work hard, and so the only way to compete with them is to remain more innovative.'

Subject: An Elevator to Your Floor From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:43:18 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/realestate/02elevator.html November 2, 2005 An Elevator to Your Floor, With No Local Stops By FRED A. BERNSTEIN The best way to see the future of New York elevators may be to visit the Marriott Marquis Hotel, the behemoth in Times Square. Visitors who get into the elevators there, expecting to press a button for their floor, are stymied: there are no buttons in the elevators. Instead, there are keypads in the lobby. Punch in the floor you want, and a digital readout tells you which elevator to take (each car is identified by a letter). 'I call it the express bus system,' said the hotel's general manager, Michael J. Stengel. Because it knows where people are going before they board, the computer controlling the elevators can sort passengers, eliminating a pet peeve of elevator riders: doors that open at floor after floor even though the car is full. Already, Mr. Stengel said, a system installed in 'the back of the house' - the service zone used by employees - has drastically cut average elevator waiting time. The 'front of the house' system for guests, largely operational now, is expected to be finished in early 2006. It is made by the Schindler Elevator Corporation of Morristown, N.J., a division of the Schindler Group, based in Switzerland. Smart elevator systems from Schindler are also being installed in the Hearst Building (designed by Norman Foster) and One Bryant Park (designed by FxFowle Architects). Downtown, a similar system made by the Otis Elevator Company of Farmington, Conn., has been installed at 7 World Trade Center, which is nearly completed but still empty. Carl Galioto, a technical partner at the firm that designed the building, Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, says such 'destination control' systems, which he says can reduce average trip time by 30 percent, 'are one of the greatest vehicles for improving performance of a building.' At an office building at 1180 Avenue of the Americas, at 46th Street, where Schindler's keypads are mounted on custom black-granite pedestals, employees streaming into the building perform an orderly ballet, entering floor numbers and then proceeding to elevators marked A through H. At the Marriott Marquis, things are a bit more complicated: red-jacketed employees have to help some visitors navigate the system. Smart elevator systems require users to take it on faith that the system will give them the quickest ride. David Ferguson, an architect from Indiana who was at the Marriott Marquis for meetings, said, 'It's frustrating when you're waiting a long time for an elevator, and a car door opens and you can't get on because it isn't going to your floor.' In addition, if you get on an elevator and change your mind, there is no way to get the elevator to stop at your new destination, several passengers noted. Then there's the piggyback problem. A group of people arriving together know that they are going to the same floor, so only one of them punches in, which means the elevator does not know how many riders to expect. The car can end up overcrowded. At 7 World Trade Center, the system devised by Mr. Galioto's team addresses the piggyback problem. An identification card that admits an employee to the elevator lobby simultaneously tells the system which floor the employee works on. (There will be an override for people who want to visit another floor.) Since each person will have to swipe a card before reaching the elevators, the elevators will know precisely how many passengers are heading to each destination. Smart elevator technology promises further personalization, according to Sula Moudakis, director of high-rise traction installations for Schindler. 'Say I'm a V.I.P. and I really don't want to ride with anybody else,' Ms. Moudakis said. 'So when I swipe my card, the system assigns me an elevator with nobody in it, and that elevator gives me an express trip to my floor. 'Or if it's a building with elevators that normally drop passengers at the second level - and from there you take an escalator down - a person with a disability could get a trip to the ground floor, based on information in his card. You're basically unlimited to the type of individualization you can provide.' Of course, the system will require additional record-keeping. If your office moves from one floor to another, your card will have to be changed. And there might be privacy concerns about tracking which floor a person is on at any time. Retrofitting buildings with smart elevator systems is expensive. At the Marriott, where long waits for elevators have been a frustration since the building opened in 1985, the project cost $11 million, Mr. Stengel said. Because the hotel was designed with the elevator bank forming a ring in the center of the 45-story atrium, adding elevators was not an option. Increasing the efficiency of the existing system was the goal. Not all developers are sold on smart elevator systems. The Wynn Las Vegas, a 50-story, $2.7 billion hotel that opened this year, has conventional elevators, and that can mean long waits. Ms. Moudakis said the Wynn decided against installing the system because it would be unfamiliar to guests. 'Their concern is visitors coming into the building and seeing keypads and not knowing what to do,' she said. But at the Marriott Marquis, most passengers appeared to have little trouble with the keypad system. 'If you use it the wrong way the first time, you'll use it the right way the second time,' Mr. Stengel said. Ms. Moudakis of Schindler agreed that riders on smart elevators do not need to be smart themselves. 'Our argument is, it's very intuitive,' she said. 'If we can make it work at the Marriott Marquis,' she added, 'we're going to revolutionize the industry.'

Subject: Spanish Town Withers With the Olive From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:41:18 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/international/europe/03spain.html?ex=1288674000&en=5286e7b63839796a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 3, 2005 A Spanish Town Withers With the Olive, Its Tree of Life By RENWICK McLEAN CAMBIL, Spain - The anxiety in this town begins to make sense after a short drive up the main road, as the homes and plazas give way to orchards with seemingly endless rows of olive trees. Trees that normally sag with hundreds of pounds of fruit at this time of year are largely barren, holding little more than a handful of olives, many no bigger than peas. Some trees have dried up and shriveled, their brittle leaves breaking in the wind. Others have been cut to stumps to preserve their sap in hopes they will regenerate. The groves that have sustained this region for centuries and helped turn it into the richest source of olive oil in the world have been decimated by circumstances that few here thought possible. A record-breaking freeze last winter was followed by a drought that has been described as the worst to hit Spain in 60 years. The combination has been devastating to this town of 3,000 residents in the mountain ranges of Jaén, a southern province that is slightly larger than Connecticut and produced about 20 percent of the world's olive oil last year - almost as much as Italy's entire output. Whether oil producers elsewhere will make up for this year's drop in supply from Jaén is not yet clear, but the effects on towns like Cambil are likely to be profound. Practically every family in Cambil owns olive trees, two or three hundred on average, residents say. The town, which has the slightly unkempt look of a community more focused on its orchards than itself, has a couple of groceries, a bar or two, a pharmacy and three olive oil factories. But this year there is little fruit to feed the factories. 'This is a catastrophe,' said Juan Castro, 77, a retired farmer. 'Without olives, we have nothing.' He was speaking of Cambil, but he could have been speaking just as easily about dozens of similar towns in the mountains of Jaén. The gravity of the problem extends far beyond this year's harvest. Since badly damaged groves can take 5 or even 10 years to regain full productivity, it may be a decade before the towns recover, if they ever do, agricultural experts say. 'This could be the end of a way of life,' said Emilio Torres Velasco, an official at the Jaén branch of the Unión de Pequeños Agricultores y Ganaderos, or Small Farmers and Ranchers Union. 'Some of these towns may be completely depopulated if they don't get help.' Life in the mountain orchards of Jaén is worlds away from the mechanized agriculture of the adjacent flatlands. Olives here are still largely collected by hand, with poles and baskets and occasionally mules the only practical way to reach the trees on the steepest slopes. The orchards are generally family-owned, and small - most are under 10 acres. The steep mountainsides have aggravated the effects of both the freeze and the drought, and farmers did not have the money or machinery to protect their trees or help them recover, the way their competitors can on the flat fields below. But in the past, the durability of the olive tree, which can bear fruit for hundreds of years, enabled residents here to scrape by. Luis Miguel Martínez Martos, 40, a farmer in Jaén who advises the small-farmers union, said that olives are far more than a crop to the people who live here. 'Their whole understanding of power and value is based on the olive tree,' he said. The oil is used here to deep fry eggs and to make potato chips, ice cream and even perfume. It is combined with lye to make laundry detergent, and applied to wounds to speed healing. The air here is cleaner, the food healthier and the life spans long, all because of the olive and its magical oil, residents say. Residents have relied on the trees and fruit for centuries, sometimes in unexpected ways. The trees marked the borders between Muslim and Christian Spain in the Middle Ages. They provided refuge for residents fleeing aerial bombardments in the Spanish Civil War in the 1930's, and food during the hungry decade that followed. 'The olive tree is life for us,' said Antonia García Espinosa, 73, who was born in Cambil and has never lived anywhere else. During the civil war, Mr. Martínez's great-grandfather took refuge from the bombs inside the concave trunk of one of the oldest trees in the family's orchard, he said, adding, 'Many people in Jaén have stories like that.' The trees have thrived so well, so long, that residents have failed to consider other crops or industries, assuming that olives would always be reliable. Now few towns know how to attract new businesses. 'No industry will come here,' said Mr. Torres, the official at the farmers union. 'There is no infrastructure, no highways.' The only solution, Mr. Torres said, is for politicians in Madrid and Brussels to agree to offer more aid. Juan José López, 27, a bartender in Cambil, said the town might get through the year with government loans and other aid. But in the time it takes the trees to recover, he said, 'people are going to leave.' 'There is nothing else here,' he said.

Subject: New Openness to the Fed From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:39:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/business/01fedspeak.html November 1, 2005 Chairman Nominee May Bring a New Openness to the Fed By EDMUND L. ANDREWS WASHINGTON - If Ben S. Bernanke has his way, the Federal Reserve is likely to become more open, less mysterious and perhaps less intriguing than it is right now. In an article he wrote with other academics - long before President Bush nominated him to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman - Mr. Bernanke bluntly argued that the Fed needed to base its credibility on more than the mystique of its chairman. 'The 'just trust us' approach may work in a period when the chair and the Board of Governors command widespread support,' Mr. Bernanke and three colleagues wrote in Foreign Affairs. 'But the happy state of affairs will not last forever,' they continued. 'It is more sensible, and more democratic, to begin to act now to depersonalize monetary policy making by increasing Fed transparency and accountability.' It was a striking swipe at Mr. Greenspan, who adamantly resisted any effort to set rules that would limit the Fed's discretion and prided himself on his ability to dodge questions and, as he once put it, only partly tongue-in-cheek, 'mumble with great incoherence.' Mr. Greenspan was a master of old-style 'Fed-speak,' deliberately creating an atmosphere of ambiguity to preserve his maneuvering room. But Mr. Bernanke represents a younger generation of thinkers and policy makers who have already pushed the Fed and most other central banks to be far more explicit and open about their actions and goals. The big difference is much less about the substance of monetary policy than about how that policy is communicated to financial markets and the public at large. Under Mr. Greenspan, the Fed has already undergone a revolution in transparency. As late as 1994, seven years after Mr. Greenspan had taken over, it did not even formally announce its decisions on interest rates. Today, it not only announces every decision but also gives strong clues about its intentions for the months ahead. The Greenspan style of 'transparency' will be apparent on Tuesday, when the Fed meets to set short-term interest rates. Because the Fed has offered so many clues for so long, there is virtually no doubt that it will raise the overnight federal funds rate by a quarter-point for the 12th time in a row. Indeed, for all his studied obscurity and convoluted way of speaking, Mr. Greenspan has often been remarkably clear about his underlying intentions. Moreover, he developed a knack for getting his message across with such memorable phrases as 'irrational exuberance' to describe the overheated stock market and 'new paradigm' to explain how improvements in productivity allowed the economy to grow faster without setting off higher inflation. But Mr. Bernanke, as a professor at Princeton and later as a governor at the Fed, has argued for years that the Fed should go even further in explaining itself and bind its policies to an explicit, publicly stated target for inflation. Committing to an inflation target, Mr. Bernanke and his supporters have argued, would give the Fed added credibility with investors and make its policies much easier to anticipate and understand. Opponents of the idea, including Mr. Greenspan, say the Fed has left little doubt about its goals on inflation but needs to preserve its flexibility to deal with unanticipated shocks. In many respects, the debate is academic. As a practical matter, economists on Wall Street have known for some time that Mr. Greenspan essentially wants to keep the core rate of inflation between 1 and 2 percent a year. But Mr. Bernanke's approach could lead to big changes in how the Fed communicates. 'Ben is going to unlock a lot of mystery,' said Mark L. Gertler, chairman of the economics department at New York University and a co-author of numerous papers with Mr. Bernanke. 'He's going to explain what he's doing and give an underlying rationale for it. The Fed will become less mysterious, and I think people will like that.' As a Fed governor from 2002 until earlier this year, Mr. Bernanke displayed a drive to break new ground about trends in the economy and even to provoke debates - much as if he had never left his post at Princeton. In 2002, outlining ways to avoid an unwanted decline in consumer prices, he declared that the Fed 'has a technology, called a printing press' and could increase inflation by printing as many dollars as it wanted. In 2003, he argued at length that the economy was in the midst of a 'jobless recovery' and became a strong supporter of keeping interest rates low to shore up growth. Earlier this year, Mr. Bernanke provoked debate around the world by turning conventional wisdom upside down about the United States' rising foreign indebtedness. The problem was not that Americans were spending too much, he said, but that the rest of the world has a huge 'savings glut' and needs to do something with its money. Such speeches suggest that Mr. Bernanke may find it hard to contain his zest for explaining and debating even after becoming Fed chairman. In doing so, he may face challenges similar to those faced by Mr. Greenspan, who in recent years has been clearer than his reputation for double talk suggests. But his tenure was filled with memorable cases of fudging and coming down squarely on both sides of the fence. Under increasing fire from critics who said his policy of low interest rates had led to a bubble in the housing market, Mr. Greenspan recently admitted that there 'are a lot of local bubbles' and that 'there's a lot of froth in this market,' even if he saw no national housing bubble. Mr. Greenspan is widely perceived as having given a green light to President Bush's plans for a big tax cut in 2001, and thus to have helped set the stage for the huge deficits that followed. Mr. Greenspan, however, insists that he always cautioned that there was a need for 'trigger' mechanisms that would stop the tax cuts if deficits got out of hand. But the bigger question for Mr. Bernanke is his approach to talking about monetary policy, the heart of the Fed's business and the part that has been most secretive. 'Central bankers have a basic responsibility to give the public full and compelling explanations' for their decisions, Mr. Bernanke said in a speech last year to the American Economic Association. 'Besides satisfying the principle of democratic accountability, a more open policy-making process is also likely to lead to better policy decisions.' But a Bernanke Fed could turn out to be as obscure as the Greenspan Fed. In theory, a policy of inflation targeting would require the central bank to disclose its goal and its forecast for inflation, its assessment of risks and even the models it uses to make its predictions. In practice, Mr. Bernanke has embraced the idea of 'constrained discretion,' meaning that the Fed could depart from its normal rules to deal with unexpected shocks like a big jump in oil prices or the fallout from a terrorist attack. Mr. Bernanke and most other Fed officials have thus far attached fairly little importance to a one-time jump in oil prices, arguing that such jumps have little impact on the long-term inflation trend. Mr. Bernanke has also kept emphasizing that the Fed could take as long as it wants to reach its inflation target. At a conference sponsored by the St. Louis Fed two years ago, he said the Fed should describe an inflation target as a 'long-run objective only' and make clear that it 'sets no fixed time frame for reaching it.' 'You want to set rules, but with a lot of flexibility,' said Frederic S. Miskhin, a professor of economics at Columbia who wrote a book with Mr. Bernanke on inflation-targeting. But if the Fed can take as long as it wants to hit its target, would investors be able to anticipate Fed policy any better than they can today? The ambiguity of inflation-targeting is evident in the speculation about whether Mr. Bernanke would be a tough-minded 'hawk' or a soft-hearted 'dove' on inflation. Bond investors initially perceived Mr. Bernanke as a dove, pushing bond prices down when his nomination was announced because they assumed he would allow slightly higher inflation than Mr. Greenspan. Many Wall Street analysts contend that view is wrong, and some Democratic lawmakers in Congress worry that Mr. Bernanke might even focus too much on fighting inflation and not enough, as they see it, on promoting full employment. The uncertainty suggests that the Fed could be forced to explain a great deal more about its strategy, simply to clarify how its inflation target would actually work. 'It's going to take a big educational job,' said Allan H. Meltzer, a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and a historian of the Fed. 'Right now, we have a lot of people in the markets yelling about inflation. Short-term numbers show that prices are rising, but we all know that has to do with oil prices and that's a one-time increase. You have to explain what you're doing.' Mr. Gertler, at N.Y.U., said one of Mr. Bernanke's goals was to move the spotlight away from the mystique of the Fed chairman and onto the basic policy goals. But that may not be possible. With his zeal for explaining and a knack for bons mots that could rival those of Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Bernanke may find himself as much in the limelight as his predecessor.

Subject: Alkmaar: A Dutch City From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:38:34 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://travel2.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/travel/30dayout.html October 30, 2005 Alkmaar: A Dutch City That Still Likes to Speak Dutch By BRUCE BAWER AMSTERDAM is many wonderful things - the cosmopolitan gateway to Europe, a living repository of glorious Dutch art, architecture and cultural treasures - but it's not exactly an immersion course in contemporary Dutch life. Indeed, in a city where about half the population is foreign and where you might imagine that English is the official language, ordinary natives can be lost in the shuffle, overshadowed by the spectacle of street-corner drug peddlers (few of them Dutch) or scantily clad women (also non-Dutch) posing in crimson-flooded windows. Fortunately, a healthy dose of more typically Dutch life is close at hand. In the sandy, marshy lowlands of the North Holland peninsula, a half hour by train north of Amsterdam, lies Alkmaar, a municipality with just under 100,000 inhabitants that last year celebrated its 750th anniversary. In 1573, it was the first Dutch city liberated from the Spanish, an event that set the Netherlands on the road to the golden age of the Dutch Republic. Today, this old trading center is known primarily for its soccer team, AZ, and its weekly cheese market (actually an elaborate simulation served up for tourists); for me, however, it's a place that can balance out some of the misleading notions about the Netherlands that Amsterdam can, alas, nurture. Trains from Amsterdam to Alkmaar (11.90 euros round trip, or $14.52 at $1.22 to the euro) are frequent. Ten minutes out, you're gliding across rolling meadows broken by yard-wide, algae-green canals and lines of trees out of a painting by Albert Cuyp. Sheep and cattle graze; at track side, men and women work communal gardens. And then - in no time at all - you're in Alkmaar. A 10-minute walk from the station brings you to Grote Sint Laurenskerk, an imposing 15th-century church in the Brabant-Gothic style (like French Gothic, but with a more ornate exterior) that marks one end of the main thoroughfare, Langestraat. Now a pedestrian-only shopping street, it has many of the chain stores that are found along Kalverstraat, its counterpart in Amsterdam, as well as convivial cafes with names like Bacchus (No. 12) and de Nachtegaal (the Nightingale, No. 100). But Langestraat can feel less like Kalverstraat - that roiling sea of heterogeneous humanity - than like a Dutch version of Bedford Falls in 'It's a Wonderful Life.' One recent Saturday, a man and his little boy moseyed along lapping at ice-cream cones, while a mother marched her brood from one clothing outlet to another. Enhancing the quaint small-town feel was a huge street organ (a fading Dutch tradition); its proprietor shoved it up and down the pavement as it tooted 'Toot, Toot, Tootsie, Goodbye' and 'Five Foot Two, Eyes of Blue.' (I recalled this fondly the next day when, at a family-filled restaurant in Amsterdam, I went bug-eyed at the obscene rap lyrics blaring from loudspeakers.) I love the splendor of Amsterdam. But I also love Alkmaar's low-key, old-fashioned - dare I say corny? - charm. I savor the little touches of Dutch culture: you buy a magazine, and the cashier briskly rolls it up and slides a rubber band over it; you order fries, and they ask you, 'Ketchup or mayonnaise?' In Amsterdam, one sometimes glimpses my favorite only-in-the-Netherlands spectacle: a dad or mom chauffeuring two moppets on a bicycle, one riding fore, the other aft. But in Alkmaar this sight is ubiquitous. I love Alkmaar's immaculate streets; at street crossings, with no traffic in sight, even visibly restless teenagers wait for the light to change. I also love the feeling of safety. To live in Amsterdam these days is to be gloomily aware that the Netherlands is suffering from formidable, and deepening, urban problems; strolling around Alkmaar, you'd hardly know it. Yet it's no Mayberry, either. Wander a bit beyond Langestraat and you'll find an inviting maze of narrow, cobbled lanes, one of which - the seven-foot-wide (I've measured) Magalenenstraat - is packed with elegant little boutiques that wouldn't seem out of place on the Champs-Élysées. On Achterstraat, the high walls of one airy emporium are covered, library-like, with shelves - tightly packed not with books but with big cylinders of yellow cheese. Yet another tiny passageway, Fnidsen, boasts the elegant Twin Arts (No. 87) and Lifestyle (No. 89), both crowded with high-end furniture and decorative items. The Dutch are top-notch at street markets, and on Nieuwesloot there's a bustling one, where vendors hawk bargain-price items ranging from fish to underwear to CD's. A square called Waagplein is lined with sidewalk cafes, where patrons sip coffee and snack on broodjes (sandwiches on rolls) to the sound of church bells. In Amsterdam, such cafes swarm with tourists and chic local residents; in Alkmaar, the weekend diners are mostly families - some with tots, others with teenagers - enjoying a leisurely lunch. (To be sure, this being a Dutch city, even family-friendly Alkmaar has a red-light district - a long block called Achterdam that parents will want to steer clear of. Mark your maps!) A guaranteed highlight for youngsters is the popular and recently renovated Hoornse Vaart swimming complex (Hertog Aalbrechtweg 4). A five-minute bus ride from downtown along a scenic canal - and past a couple of photogenic windmills - it has an Olympic-size swimming pool, a large wave pool (wonderful fun) and a children's pool (with toddler-scale water slides). Easily the most congenial - and immaculate - place of its kind I've ever seen (you'll seek in vain a single bit of graffiti or chipped tile), it overlooks a beautiful lawn and an inviting open-air pool, which is, of course, closed in winter. (Admission is 3.75 euros for adults; 2.50 euros for those under 18.) Want a taste of residential life? Saunter out of the center city along Kennemerstraatweg, a major artery where you'll pass few pedestrians but hundreds of cyclists, many of them families pedaling to town together. After ambling by a handsome windmill - Piet's Mill, built in 1769 - make a left and start meandering. You'll find yourself exploring a pretty neighborhood of neat, one-lane brick roads and cozy brick houses, their curtains pulled back (a resilient Dutch tradition) so you can peer in through the spotless picture windows at the uncluttered rooms, gleaming tabletops and meticulously arranged bric-a-brac. (Domestic fastidiousness is a Dutch byword.) Yes, Alkmaar has immigrants (on a downtown street called Gedempte Nieuwesloot, you'll see kebab shops and signs in Arabic); but compared with multicultural Amsterdam, it feels unmistakably Dutch. Height is part of it: even in the Netherlands - where the people are the world's tallest - folks from this region are known for their stature. Then there's language. In Amsterdam, menus are printed in English and Dutch (sometimes just English); in Alkmaar, they're in Dutch, period. I long ago stopped addressing Amsterdam waiters in my shaky version of their tongue, since they invariably replied in mine; during my recent day in Alkmaar, however, the waitress at a convivial cafe, Prego (Langestraat 12A) actually replied to my English in Dutch, which she continued to speak throughout all our transactions. She plainly did this, I hasten to add, not out of rudeness but out of provincial insecurity; anyone who finds this incident off-putting rather than delightfully atmospheric should rest assured that the last thing to worry about in the Netherlands is finding someone who can speak English. (The 4.95 euro weekly special, by the way, was an appetizing broodje with smoked chicken, walnuts and curry dressing.) Peter Visser of Henry's Grand Café (Houttil 34) sums up Alkmaar's appeal beautifully. It has, he said, 'the character of a small town and the aura of a city.' The rising social tensions that already afflict the major Dutch urban areas, however, seem destined, sooner or later, to alter life in places like Alkmaar. Best, then, to catch this town's gentle pleasures while you can.

Subject: Treating Skin of Color With Know-How From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:37:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/fashion/thursdaystyles/03skin.html November 3, 2005 Treating Skin of Color With Know-How By NATASHA SINGER ERICKA DUNLAP, Miss America 2004, retired her crown last year, but she has not moved out of the spotlight. Her new career as a country singer still requires her to maintain a flawless complexion. So when acne flares up, she flies from her home in Nashville to Washington for treatment at the Cultura Cosmetic Medical Spa. The spa attracts other celebrities, including Venus Williams, the basketball star Alonzo Mourning and Alfred C. Liggins III, the president of Radio One. Patients may appreciate Cultura's luxury amenities, the muted lighting, hush-hush atmosphere and minimalist décor. But the medical spa's main attractions are its founders - Dr. Eliot F. Battle Jr., a dermatologist, and Dr. Monte O. Harris, a facial surgeon - experts in cosmetic treatments for blacks, Asians and Latinos. 'Before I found Cultura I drifted around from spa to spa for a while,' said Ms. Dunlap, who is African-American. 'But so many times the advice I got wasn't given from a cultural perspective. Dr. Battle didn't just clear up my acne. Every time I go there I learn something new about taking care of my ethnic skin.' Dr. Battle and Dr. Harris are among a small number of prominent physicians who specialize in treatments for patients of color, along with dermatologists like Dr. Susan C. Taylor of Philadelphia; Dr. Jeanine B. Downie of Montclair, N.J.; Dr. Fran E. Cook-Bolden of New York City; and a few others. All are known as authorities on how acid peels, lasers and other cosmetic treatments, whose results vary depending on skin pigmentation, can be best performed on people with non-Caucasian skin. These doctors also have become masters at fixing the blemishes, discoloration and scarring that occur when the procedures are done by dermatologists with little experience with those patients. Like many other dermatologists before them, they also write self-help beauty books and appear in medical segments on television programs like 'Good Morning America' and the 'Today' show. And they are attracting a growing clientele of actors, newscasters, politicians, members of Middle Eastern nobility and Southeast Asian entrepreneurs. Their increasing prominence reflects a rising interest among black, Asian and Hispanic consumers in cosmetic treatments and calls attention to the fact that these consumers need expert care. 'The growing focus on skin of color is partly tied to consumers who seek out dermatologists who look like them, thinking that the doctors must know about their skin, hair and nails,' Dr. Taylor said. In 1998 she opened the Skin of Color Center at St. Luke's-Roosevelt Hospital Center in Manhattan, a clinic that specializes in medical and cosmetic treatment. 'But it's also tied to dermatologists who are open to the idea of gaining expertise in skin of color and creating centers around the country to treat these consumers.' Dr. Amy S. Paller, the chairwoman of the dermatology department at the Feinberg School of Medicine at Northwestern University in Chicago, which has just opened the Center for Ethnic Skin, said the new focus may be overdue. 'There has recently been a greater recognition of the need for more research and expertise in this area,' she said, 'particularly in new treatments that can have a tremendous cosmetic significance for skin of color.' Similar clinics have recently started up at the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit and at the University of Miami. Changing demographics have pushed dermatologists to shift their attention. Hispanics, Asians, African-Americans and American Indians will represent almost half of the American population by the year 2050, according to projections from the Census Bureau, a large increase from 2000, when those groups accounted for about one-third. But perhaps more important, consumers in those groups are getting more cosmetic treatments like laser hair removal and Botox injections than ever before. Hispanic, Asian and African-American patients had 19 percent of all cosmetic procedures in 2004, an increase from 14 percent in 2000, according to the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery. 'Four to five years ago physicians didn't know that people of color were so interested in treatments that can help us age gracefully,' Dr. Battle said. 'But now people of color represent the fastest growing segment of cosmetic therapy.' Such patients are particularly vulnerable because any kind of trauma - whether a burn from a laser, inflammation from an acid peel or an insect bite - can cause light or dark patches (called hypopigmentation or hyperpigmentation) to form on their skin. In the late 1990's, Dr. Battle helped develop a new generation of cosmetic lasers that are gentler to more pigmented skin tones than previous devices were. But not all dermatologists and spas own those machines, which he calls color-blind lasers. 'If people want results without side effects, they need to find doctors with expertise in all cosmetic modalities, as well as in ethnicity,' Dr. Battle said. 'In each major city with a high population of people of color there are fewer than five doctors who fit this description.' One of those experts is Dr. Downie of Montclair, whose clients include Wendy Williams, a music video jockey for VH1. Dr. Downie regularly appears on 'Today' and 'The View' to discuss skin conditions and cosmetic procedures. 'I just got a call from a patient in Saudi Arabia, who got burned from a laser treatment and wanted to know if I could fix it,' Dr. Downie said. 'But sometimes the side effects from another doctor's treatment can take longer to heal than the original problem.' Until recently it has been difficult for patients to find doctors with expertise in treating non-Caucasian people. Patricia L. Gatling, the chairwoman of the New York City Human Rights Commission, who is African-American, learned this as a child in 1963, when her mother drove her all the way from Kosciusko, Miss., to Birmingham, Ala., to have her mosquito bites treated by the only African-American dermatologist there. Her mother knew untreated bites might scar her legs. A few years ago, when she got adult acne, Ms. Gatling was surprised to find it would still take time to find the right doctor. She first sought out a few of New York's best-known dermatologists. But the harsh acid products and expensive laser procedures they prescribed caused so many dark patches on her face that she ended up, she said, looking like 'some leopard.' Her face cleared up only after she visited the Ethnic Skin Specialty Group, a three-year-old practice on the East Side run by Dr. Cook-Bolden. 'Nobody wants to waste time and money on a doctor who is guessing how treatments designed for people who aren't of color are going to work on us,' Ms. Gatling said. 'Dr. Cook-Bolden understood my condition in two minutes, not because she's a dermatologist of color but because her whole practice is geared toward the special skin conditions' of Asians, Latinos and African-Americans, she said. Victoria Holloway Barbosa, a dermatologist and the director of L'Oréal Institute for Ethnic Hair and Skin Research in Chicago said: 'You don't have to be a black dermatologist to treat a black patient. But you do have to have experience in treating a broad range of skin types.' Expertise in treating skin of color involves more than knowing how a certain laser or ointment might affect a Pakistani or a Brazilian patient, dermatologists say. A doctor's cultural empathy can also improve a patient's outlook, Dr. Cook-Bolden said. 'Just today I had a patient who had scalp bumps that come from using thick pomades and creams,' she said. 'The first dermatologist she went to told her never to perm her hair or use products again. But patients are not going to listen to you unless you give them alternatives.' Dr. Cook-Bolden routinely refers patients with scalp problems to hairstylists she trusts. 'When patients find another hairstyle that is presentable, they'll comply with the therapy. Having an expertise in skin of color means you have to be able to treat medical conditions and be aware of cultural conditions at the same time.' To find appropriate dermatologists, Dr. Downie suggests that patients 'call up ahead of time and ask whether the doctor sees a lot of Latino patients, black patients and Asian patients.' The Web site of the American Academy of Dermatology has a physician locator, which lists doctors who identify their specialty as 'skin of color.' But often patients learn about the specialists by word of mouth. Adoria Doucette, a special events promoter in Washington, enthusiastically hands out Dr. Battle's office number to almost everyone she meets, including Patti LaBelle. She credits Dr. Battle with restoring her complexion after laser hair removal performed by another dermatologist had left her 'looking like someone had been putting out cigarettes on my face,' Ms. Doucette said. 'Now when I see beautiful black women with skin problems in Nordstrom's or in Whole Foods, I stop them and give them his number,' she said.

Subject: Urbanite-Peasant Legal Differences From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 07:36:19 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/international/asia/03china.html November 3, 2005 China to Drop Urbanite-Peasant Legal Differences By JOSEPH KAHN BEIJING - China plans to abolish legal distinctions between urban residents and peasants in 11 provinces as the government tries to slow the country's surging wealth gap and reduce social unrest, state media said Wednesday. Under an experimental program, local governments in those provinces will allow peasants to register as urban residents and to have the same rights to housing, education, medical care and social security that city dwellers have. If carried out as advertised, the program would eliminate a cornerstone of the population control policies begun by Mao in the 1950's. The system of residence permits, known as hukou, ties every person to a locale and once made travel difficult without permission. In practice, the system has been fading away for more than a decade. An estimated 200 million peasants have left the countryside to live in urban areas, some of them full time. Their access to urban services varies widely depending on local rules and the kind of employment they find. In today's market-oriented economy, the once-comprehensive socialist benefits bestowed on urban residents carry far less weight. Most people rely on their own resources, or those of their employers, to pay for health care, housing and schooling. Even so, the system of residence permits has been a fixture of social and political culture in Communist China and a prominent symbol of the government's control of daily life. Its elimination could be regarded as an advance in human rights, some specialists said. 'This is an old-style way of managing a huge country and no longer makes sense with a market economy,' said Qin Hui, a historian at Qinghua University in Beijing. 'If it's really going away, it is a significant turning point.' Mr. Qin said he expected that even if the system disappeared, local governments would retain administrative control over their populations. They would still set conditions on registration for urban residents and prevent the growth of slums. 'The cities will become places where the relatively well off live,' he said. 'Beijing is not going to look like New Delhi, or even like Bangkok.' Economic forces have eroded population controls in recent years. Shenzhen emerged from rice fields in the early 1980's to become one of China's most prosperous metropolitan areas, and nearly all of its 10 million residents were born elsewhere. Shanghai began the concept of a 'blue card' for qualified migrant workers in the mid-1990's, giving them full access to housing and city services if they met criteria. The central government declared that it intended to drop the residency permit system at the 16th Communist Party Congress in 2002, and has made incremental changes since. An episode in 2003, when Sun Zhigang, a college-educated migrant in Guangdong Province, was beaten to death in police custody after being detained on suspicion of vagrancy, gave impetus to changing the system. His death caused nationwide outrage and led to the abolition of vagrancy laws. 'We knew it was a dead duck after they abolished the custody and repatriation system' or vagrancy law, said Nicolas Becquelin, a researcher for Human Rights in China based in Hong Kong. 'The police had no power to enforce the hukou laws.' Doing away with the residency system also fits the political agenda of President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who have tried to demonstrate that they are more attentive to people left behind in China's economic boom. The market-oriented economy has produced enormous wealth but also generated major social cleavages. In the past several years, peasants and migrant workers have led an upsurge in protests over corruption, land grabs and environmental degradation. Long term, Mr. Becquelin said, urbanization remains an enormous administrative challenge for China and one that the government is unlikely to entrust to the market. 'I think you'll see a situation where the largest cities retain very tight controls, while medium cities are a little looser and newer small cities have more freedom,' he said. The 11 major provinces involved in the latest move include Guangdong, Fujian and Liaoning. China has 23 provinces. Articles about the change in several state-run publications suggested, though, that the Public Security Bureau, the nation's police bureaucracy, remained deeply wary of the change and may slow its progression.

Subject: Adjustment From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 06:03:22 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Through a 15 year period major international stock markets have adjusted increasingly to currency value swings. So, a sharp loss in value of the British pound or French franc was compensated for by an increase in the domestic value of British or French stocks. This adjustment bodes well for further smoothing market problems as international currency swings continue.

Subject: Investing From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 20:03:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Notice the international bull stock market in domestic currencies. I am most impressed at how smoothly and widely international stock markets have responded to the strong dollar with substantial increases. Talk about value adjustments.... Hong Kong's stock market is lagging. But, remember, the Hong Kong dollar is tied to our dollar, so there is no stock market adjustment needed. Emerging markets are up 18.7% in dollars, but Brazil is especially interesting. Brazil's currency is far stronger than the dollar and Brazil's stock market is up 25% in domestic currency but 49% in dollars. I consider the situation in Brazil verging on dangerous.

Subject: Vangaurd Emerging Markets From: Johnny5 To: Terri Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 07:01:55 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I read on the vangaurd diehards thread that several vangaurd fund managers are putting a good portion of thier wealth into the vangaurd emerging markets fund. It seems asia and latin america are the sectors they like. What do you find so dangerous about brazil?

Subject: Sharp Eyes for the Multiple Things From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 17:07:34 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/11/29/specials/berlin-hedgehog.html February 14, 1954 Sharp Eyes for the Multiple Things By WILLIAM BARRETT THE HEDGEHOG AND THE FOX An Essay on Tolstoy's View of History. By Isaiah Berlin. Most of us, I imagine, reading 'War and Peace' tend to skim over the long disquisitions on history as rather tedious breaks in a marvelously exciting story, and nearly all critics hitherto have given official sanction to this habit by attempting to prove that these historical essays are an unnecessary blemish upon a great work of art. However, Isaiah Berlin--lecturer in philosophy at Oxford and famous as a scholar, diplomatist and conversationalist in at least two continents--has chosen to subject these historical passages to careful attention. In this brilliant essay he not only succeeds in making very good sense out of Tolstoy's historical theory but also finds in it an indispensable key to the complex and divided personality of the great Russian novelist. The fox, said the old Greek poet, knows many things, but the hedgehog only one big thing. On this ancient bit of wisdom Mr. Berlin bases his distinction between two fundamental human types: those who have sharp eyes, like the fox, for the multiple things of the world, and those, like the hedgehog, whose defense consists of a single centripetal impulse--that is, who seek an inner unified vision. Tolstoy, in Mr. Berlin's view, was a fox who all his life sought, unsuccessfully, to be a hedgehog. The glory of Tolstoy's novels lies precisely in their almost superhuman sensitivity to the multiplicity of things, their ability to record the individual feel and tone of persons, places and situations in their concrete objectivity; but the other half of Tolstoy, particularly during his latter years, is the agonizing search for an inner unifying vision with which his foxlike appetite for multiplicity can lie down in peace. The theory of history in 'War and Peace' comes out of this deep cleft in the man himself. The theory maintains, very simply, that the human understanding can never comprehend history, since the historic process involves an infinity of causes that lie beyond our grasp. Mr. Berlin seems to me to be altogether right in rescuing his theory from the charge of 'mysticism.' It is, rather, an entirely lucid and intellectually cogent theory, and a deterministic one to boot, though rather discomforting to the facile determinism of some historians. The individual, from the point of view of history, is never free, since he is caught in a web of infinite circumstances and causes. On the other hand, 'War and Peace' as a novel swarms with an extraordinary number of vivid personal lives each of which throbs with its own sense of decision and choice. This conflict between the feeling of freedom and the rational truth of determinism Tolstoy never succeeded in resolving for himself during his whole life. Dissatisfied with the patness and artificiality of the historians' theories, Tolstoy was led in turn to distrust all theory as the falsification of the fullness of life itself. Hence, the great heroes that emerge in the novel are Kutuzov, the aged general who as the embodiment of the Russian earth triumphs over the intellectual cleverness of foreign generals, and the peasant Karataev who has a much deeper human wisdom than the Petersburg intellectual Pierre. Indeed, 'War and Peace' is one of the most formidable attacks upon rationalism ever penned. Some of Mr. Berlin's best pages occur toward the end, where he seeks to establish a connection between Tolstoy and the French Catholic thinker, Joseph de Maistre. On the surface no two people might seem more apart than the apostle of the Russian earth and the French clerical reactionary. But Tolstoy had studied Maistre carefully. Both had the same foxlike sharpness of reason to tear apart all modern forms of rationalism. Both believed that in the end man's reason was doomed to self-destruction once cut off from the earth and his past, la terre et les morts. Not only does Mr. Berlin command all the materials of erudition, literary and philosophical, for his task, but he has a deep and subtle feeling for the puzzle of Tolstoy's personality, and he writes throughout, and particularly toward the last pages, with a wonderful eloquence. This essay, I am sure, will take its place amid the permanent literature about Tolstoy. Mr. Barrett is Associate Professor of Philosophy at New York University.

Subject: Common sense is rare these days From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 15:21:07 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: November 05, 2005 So Far Not So Good by Peter Schiff Last week, following my appearance on CNBC's 'Squawk Box' Steve Liesman dismissed my warnings of dire consequences resulting from America's growing current account deficit, by arguing that 20 years of consistent deficits have failed to slow the US economy. In fact, the belief that the U.S. economy has faired better than those of surplus nations and that our current account deficits actually result from our superior growth is now widely accepted in both academia and on Wall Street. Excuse me folks, but I beg to differ. In 1982, the last year in which the U.S. enjoyed a current account surplus, America was the world's richest creditor nation. Today, we are the world's greatest debtor. How can such a transformation be interpreted as being positive? Can someone really say with a straight face that being a debtor is better than being a creditor? In 1982, America still flooded the world with high-quality, low cost manufactured goods. Today we flood the world with our IOUs. How can the disintegration of American industry be seen as anything other than a colossal economic failure? It is not as if American manufacturing has become so efficient that it has made room for other industries, as was the case when improvements in farming productivity gave way to the industrial revolution. When factories supplanted farms, America did not begin running massive trade deficits as a result of imported food. It was simply that farming became so efficient that capital was freed up for manufacturing. However, there is nothing creative about today's destruction. This 'so-far, so-good' attitude not only reflects a lack of understanding of basic economic principles, but of simple common sense as well. It is easy to have a good time while squandering an inheritance. However, the 'good times' are not indicative that all is well; it is just that the consequences are postponed until the credit runs out. Americans, much like philandering playboys, have squandered away the mother of all inheritances. The process of blowing all that wealth may have been fun while it lasted, but it should not be confused with economic success. The ability to blow an inheritance reflects the achievements of our ancestors, not ourselves. We all know that as individuals, going into debt is a sign of failure, while paying it off is evidence of success. When individuals are asked what they would do it they won the lottery, the most common response is to pay off debts, not run up bigger ones. Given that nations are nothing more than the sum of their individual citizens, why do we not understand that what is bad individually is also bad collectively? Think about it this way, if you were to ask a relative, perhaps your Uncle Sam, how he was doing, and he answered with the following; 'I just took out a second mortgage on my house, maxed out all my credit cards, cashed out all my retirement funds, and raided my kids college funds', would you assume that he was doing well? Would you congratulate him on his success? What if you asked a friend how he was doing and he replied 'I just paid off my mortgage and all of my credit cards, fully funded my retirement accounts, and pre-paid all my kids college tuitions.' Would you feel sorry for this individual? Would you assume that paying off his debts was somehow a sign of economic distress? Would you refer him to your Uncle Sam for financial advice? Proving that truth is stranger than fiction, on a recent trip to China, an American delegation actually gave economic advice to the Chinese. This is analogous to an F-student advising an honor student on how to improve his grades. Our recommendation; save less and spend more, is akin to what the F-student might advise an honor student: study less and party more. I'm sure the Chinese will give our advice all the consideration it deserves. Of course, not all debt is bad. Debt used to finance investments is good, to the extent that it produces superior positive cash flows. In addition, investment debt is self-liquidating, as it provides the means not only to pay the interest but retire the principle. However, consumer debt, used to pay for basic necessities, luxury goods, take vacations, or remodel kitchens, produces no income at all, and merely works to ultimately bankrupt the debtor. In actuality, current consumption financed by debt, ultimately leads to far less future consumption. Ironically, it is savings, the deliberate act of under-consumption, that maximize lifetime consumption, as savers, rather than struggling to repay debts, enjoy the extra consumption financed by compound interest. Rather than evidencing superior economic performance, American consumption actually reflects the reverse. The party was fun while it lasted, but unfortunately it is time to pay the piper. When the music stops, the world will finally see America's false prosperity for the illusion that it is, and the so-called gloom and doomers will finally be vindicated. Peter Schiff C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

Subject: Re: Common sense is rare these days From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 15:47:37 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The problem is I have been hearing about debt for years, but I see no reason to believe we are finally reaching the limit of how much debt households or the government can handle. Simply slowing the growth of debt to the growth of the economy could leave us healthy indefinitely. So far our federal debt growth is not causing apparent problems however, and that is fortunate for little budget change is likely before the coming election. As for household debt growth, there interest rates are the consideration and long term rates are still contained.

Subject: Re: Common sense is rare these days From: Pete Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 07:52:58 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Jennifer. Here's a piece about approaching the 'limit'. 2006 should give us more clues. If we get through the next couple of years without consumers folding their tents in any significant way, I'll be the first to admit that common sense has been turned on its head and we live in a 'new age' of economic realities. But just as the stock bulls of the late 90's kept insisting that they were not worried about a stock crash because the bears had been expecting it for some time and it hadn't happened, that thinking didn't have any bearing on what finally transpired. Can consumers keep keeping economy afloat? November 5, 2005 BY ELLEN SIMON ASSOCIATED PRESS NEW YORK-- Wall Street is worried about you. Yes, you. The one they call 'The Consumer.' From the trophy-arrayed corner office of the richest CEO to the windowless cubicle of the most junior analyst, your immediate future is a pressing concern. What will you get for Christmas? How much will it cost to heat your house this winter? Will you get a raise next year? This isn't personal. What they really care about is the 70 percent of gross domestic product that depends on consumer spending. Put another way, the 70 percent of the total economy that depends on you. Retailers, car makers, consumer technology companies, wireless carriers, home builders: They all count on you. You've been keeping the economy churning during the last five years, spending enough to make up for sluggish corporate spending. When you got tax cuts, you quickly spent them. Rising housing prices let you take out second and third mortgages, using your house as an ATM. But now you're just not spending the way you were. You aren't buying as many cars as you used to-- October auto sales were the weakest for any month since mid-1998. Your interest in home buying has hit its lowest level since 1991. Your debt has increased. Outstanding balances on credit cards have risen to more than $800 billion, or $7,200 per U.S. household. The United States debt-to-income ratio rose as much in the past five years as it did in the previous 15 years, according to Merrill Lynch. Your outlook is gloomy. 'Our Consumer index continued to fall off a cliff in the past week,' Merrill said in an Oct. 21 note. The last week in October, the ABC/Washington Post 'consumer comfort index' dropped to roughly the same level reached after the hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast. While October sales at many chain stores remained strong, you're eating at restaurants less. Sales at 'food services and drinking places' increased only 0.2 percent in September, according to a Goldman Sachs report. That's the fifth straight month of an increase at or below that meager pace. 'Usually, restaurant spending turns down before or during economic slowdowns,' the report said. The fact is, you could use a little more money. While economists look at 'core' inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, you need only look at your bills to see that life has become more expensive. Jumps in gasoline and heating prices make getting anywhere and staying warm at home more challenging. Increases in interest rates and higher minimum credit card payments have chipped away at your checking account. If you've been renting and want to buy a home, good luck: Affordability for first-time home buyers is the worst it has been in 16 years. Then, there's your pay. 'Here we are, officially celebrating the fourth anniversary of this economic expansion, and the wage income share of the national income pie is south of 46 percent,' fumed a research note by Merrill Lynch North American economist David A. Rosenberg. 'At no point in the past 50 years has this ratio been so low so far into a business cycle.' Historically, the ratio has been 3.5 percentage points higher. The ratio is important because it looks at wages-- your paycheck-- instead of other sources of income, like the stellar Wall Street bonuses we saw last year and are almost certain to see again this year. Wage gains haven't kept pace with inflation, but total income continues to look good, thanks to those hefty bonuses. Americans now find themselves in one of two groups: The 9 percent who make $100,000 or more and the 91 percent who don't, said Diane C. Swonk, senior managing director and chief economist at Mesirow Financial, a financial services firm based in Chicago. 'The bifurcation of the economy makes the economy look better on paper than it does to the majority of consumers,' she said. She blames the lousy summer movie season on higher gasoline prices, which inspired families to stay home and rent a DVD instead of spending $50 for gas and movie tickets. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. did well during back-to-school shopping season, she said, 'because middle income households started to move down the food chain.' For the top 9 percent, the good times continue to roll. According to Swonk, World Series tickets sold for $15,000 a pair. The Four Seasons Hotels Inc. says its $500 and higher rooms are doing better than ever, topping the Internet boom years. Sales of Coach Inc. handbags, which average about $435, increased 9 percent last summer and have stayed there. After the Internet bust, 'we kept this wealthy population,' Swonk said. 'The problem is, we continue to restructure everyone else. We want a flexible economy, but the trade off is pain.' That's why Wall Street is worried about you. No bond broker (unless you have one in your family) cares whether your car breaks down or you spend winter shivering in a sleeping bag, hoping the pipes don't freeze. But if you, the 91 percent of the population called The Consumer, hit a point where a trip to Target is out of the question, even the Coach-handbag carrying Four Seasons Hotel-staying 9 percent may feel the pain.

Subject: Re: Common sense is rare these days From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 15:50:49 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Though the Federal Reserve has raised short term interest rates repeatedly since June 2004, the American stock market has either risen or stabilized, and the long term bond market has been remarkably stable. The dollar is holding against every currency other than Brazil's.

Subject: Control of the money From: Johnny5 To: Jennifer Date Posted: Sun, Nov 06, 2005 at 06:55:14 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Jennifer I will refer you to this bit of info - basically we as a nation have lost control of our lending policies and credit standards. Rates are just an illusions according to this rothbard scholar: http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/ Hyperinflation happens by circumstance, not by plan. It is a sign that the government has lost control of its financial resources. Also in a world economy no government can control their currency absolutely outside of their borders. Even the power of the US is dependent upon international consensus. Therefore to indicate in a major banking crisis that the US can control the value of the US dollar is not possible if enough countries decide to get rid of their US dollars. Raising the Interest Rate as a fight Against Inflation This technique does not work as well as it did 20 years ago due to derivatives and the securitization of debt into bonds. Now the banking system can get around almost all rules the government may implement just by selling the debt. (This is of course assuming there are buyers for the debt). Therefore as long as foreign banks continue to want US debt, then the international interest rate set by the bond market bypasses the federal funds rate. The short term rate set by the Fed just is not considered as supply and demand is really at work here. This is why you can get an inverted yield curve. Dr. Greenspan has spoken on this issue before and he has publicly exposed doubts about any real effects of adjusting the federal funds rate. In a time before derivatives this would have been more effective as debt holders would have been inside the country. Dr. Bernanke thesis is that we did not inflate enough to prevent event the very few years of mild deflation we experienced during the 1930’s during the depression. He also believes that a country can grow their way out of a debt crisis. Given the right circumstances I do not disagree with him on this point if the growth is not dependent on the accumulation of debt and adds to the real economic base of the country. I do no feel that this economic recovery fits that mold as just building houses with debt, and they increasing the value of the houses by flooding the market with debt doesn’t in any way really add to the economic base of the country. If the country had increased the debt with jobs in manufacturing, engineering, and other real economy and wealth building functions that create an income stream I would expect the US to be in better shape than a society based on the expansion of credit. Of course if the money for manufacturing didn’t get allocated correctly, then massive oversupply would ensue. Can Dr. Bernanke fight hyperinflation, I doubt it. Just like every other country that faces hyperinflation the government has too many promises to keep, and too much money abroad. In our case the shear amount of money abroad and the speed of transition for foreign banks to get rid of US currency is far faster than any government in the history of the human race could deal with effetely. Dr. Bernanke does not make decisions on military, social security, or any of the other goodies that the government is giving to its people through the assumption of debt. He could not limit or get rid of these programs. I don’t think the President could either. So we are really stuck at our current spending level. How would Dr. Bernanke even be able to deal with the collapse of the negative trade balance? It’s not like you can run a massive negative trade balance for ever. At some time your currency devalues due to it proliferation all over the world. A sharp decrease in the purchasing power of currency is hyperinflation. If foreign banks stop buying our mortgages, then this US money coming into their countries through debt payments and a negative trade balance will no longer be trapped in a lending loop, it will now be free to devalue on the international currency market. There is no way out side of war that the US could stop this. This is precisely why we have this international lending loop whereas our money keeps coming back to the US in the form of credit. In many ways I feel sorry for Dr. Bernanke. He will go down as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve when the world goes off the US dollar. I cannot imagine what history shall show him as, but it will certainly not be positive. The question you should really be asking is why did the money supply grow so fast after the US left the gold standard. Obviously Vietnam pumped money into the US economy, but without a huge negative trade balance, the money borrowed and created stayed in the country, causing inflation in everything. During this time financial derivatives where not really in wide use, therefore international holding of US consumer debt was not nearly so widespread. I could be therefore argued that raising the federal funds rate was effective in the 1980’s as most of the holders of consumer debt (i.e. mortgages, car loans, credit cards) were inside the country. At this period of time the securitization of debt into bonds easily defeats loan requirements and interest rates on credit are now far removed from the federal funds rate for the same reason. Once the debt left the country the Feds ability to manipulate it downward was dramatically decreased. I could only see direct intervention by the government to limit the expansion of credit through the limits on selling debt. This would put the fed back in power. Certainly when a person takes out a HELOC loans and purchases something this adds to the money supply. However this money is transported via a negative trade balance to another bank outside of the country. When US bonds are sold by foreign banks, does this affect the purchasing power of money? It certainly gives the buyer of the bond cash stream of US money. If the bond is bought at a discount then this effetely lowers the purchasing power of money. If the bond is bought at a premium this effetely raises the value of money. Therefore securities held internationally in terms of debt do in fact adjust the buying power of the US dollar in terms of those countries desire to hold onto that debt. At this time the money paid on this debt is transported out of the US and to the foreign countries, where it is mostly sent back to the US in the form of mortgages. This held excess US currency out of our money supply by trapping it in MBS and ABS. HOLC money was sucked up by a comparable negative trade balance. This money also came back to the country in the form of MBS and ABS. Therefore I would argue that the money supply is really much higher than the Federal Reserve is recording it to be since effective money substitutes are now everywhere thanks to new check writing rules and derivatives. So how does this relate to CPI and PPI. I would agree that as the purchasing power of the dollar falls then prices go up and people are layed off, reducing the base of people who can purchase goods. Therefore this creates oversupply and prices are forced down. As prices rise due to the money supply more and more jobs are lost. I do not disagree with this analysis. What I expect to happen during the process is that the other countries with huge asset bubbles, I think this is a large percentage of all US trading partners, will experience the deflation of their asset bubbles at about the same time as the US for similar reasons. The bubbles are falling under their own excessive weight. As these countries go into a banking crisis they shall start to bail out their banks by printing money. I would say borrow money, but who could you really borrow from. Even if you did borrow money, it is really just that country monetizing their debt in order to extend credit at this stage, and this would just add to the supply of money in their country. This will effetely cut off effective borrowing. Not that countries won’t borrow from each other, just that the borrowing is really monetizing the debt instead using money from savings. This will cause a situation whereas money is created in both economies, the lender and the borrowing economy, increasing the money supply in both countries. In this period I also expect democratic governments to increase spending on public works, military and social programs. In no way will the governments reign in current spending. As the US dollar is the most widely used currency on the planet I would also expect to see foreign banks dumping US assets as they shift away from a US dollar standard to a basket of currencies. This will flood the international market with US securities, discounting them, and devaluing the purchasing power of the US dollar. As the US dollar is highly overvalued in purchasing power I would expect to see the US dollar fall faster than other currencies. This will in effect make it cheaper to produce things in the US again and rebuild our manufacturing base. The US negative trade balance with the world will also stop as countries start selling things to other countries. This will eliminate the negative trade balance and give the US a positive trade balance eventually. The US government has expanded its spending with GDP growth induced through the assumption of debt. This spending will not be reduced, but increase during the crisis. Government spending will now inject US currency into the US economy and into the US currency general circulation within the country. US dollars will be returning through the foreign banks divulging themselves of US securities. Therefore even though I agree with your argument for CPI and PPI, I think that the international banking system and our own government spending will bring too many dollars into the country, bring with it hyperinflation. Until the US gets a firm hold on its spending, gets rid of many social programs, public works and such, then the US is in serious danger of chronic hyperinflation for years to come.

Subject: Re: Control of the money From: Poyetas To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 05:43:38 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: consumption will not rise until real wages rise. The key is to find a new industry that will provide the engine for growth over the next years. you can always outsource labour but this will not happen until international competition brings down prices. As for the current-account deficit: it is quite obvious that America cannot compete on traditional manufacturing platforms. But that is just natural evolution. The question is where the capital inflows are going and all know the answer to that: The Iraq war and the social safety net (due to tax cuts), all of which provide little to no economic return.

Subject: Nanotech - Biomedicine From: Johnny5 To: Poyetas Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 16:13:30 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I want to see amazing nano tech everywhere - a space elevator using carbon nanotubes. I want to see all the diseases of man cured and no more famine or suffering in the world. Capital needs to flow into these areas - I think it is - Emma just posted where the governator is flowing the money into stem cell research institutes - and in WPB Scripps is coming to do some research too. The future is so bright, even Terri must wear shades - hehe. Johnny5 want his clone walking around in the next 20 years - who need sex - Sixth Day with Governator - good film. Re-pet!

Subject: An Ancient Garden Youthfully Abloom From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 12:31:25 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/11/arts/design/11SOLO.html November 11, 2001 An Ancient Garden Youthfully Abloom: Chinese Art Today By ANDREW SOLOMON AT an exhibition of early Picasso last year at the National Gallery in Washington, a woman in a red dress stood in front of a beautifully drawn nude and said with surprise: ''Glory be! He was perfectly capable of painting people the way they look.'' Savvier viewers know that Picasso's abstractions came of seeing reality so clearly that he could see past it; to them his literal early material is unsurprising. He had to be able to do some sort of realism in order to invent cubism. Realism was the point of origin. Yet realist painters in the West are in an awkward position: for more than 100 years, many of them have chosen not to practice the form. A gift for representation is usually what gets them going as artists in the first place, when they are children. Later on, they ignore this physical talent or put it in the service of larger and often more intellectual goals. This seems to us normal: we see realism as the natural and only starting place for art. We therefore expect all other art to be derived from it. In other cultures, however, the starting point is very different. Ink painting is the realism of China. It is the beginning and the end; it is the grand objective around which artistic practice is built. Calligraphy is the religious art of China. It carries value beyond what it conveys to the untutored eye. The verbal and the visual are much more richly entangled in the Chinese tradition than anywhere else, and realism, or what we would perceive as accurate depiction, is associated not with high art but with low-level court painting. Indeed, classical Chinese artists trained not by working from nature or models but by imitating the work of past masters. The third dimension was not introduced into images. So artists trying to grapple with their past either had to make reference to the great calligraphic tradition or participate in it. A classical Chinese scholar would learn early to express himself with the brush; for such scholars, painting was not one step away from seeing but one step away from writing. Just as literal realist technique enters into contemporary work by such diverse artists as Chuck Close, David Salle and Gerhard Richter, classical calligraphic technique -- guohua, or national painting -- enters into the work of many contemporary Chinese artists. There, it mixes with recent ideas, Eastern and Western. Some contemporary Chinese artists are uninterested in the guohua tradition, but most are, and theirs is the more interesting work: it is historically engaged, acknowledging its predecessors in one way or another. This year, Americans have a rare opportunity to see in four exhibitions what happens when you mix calligraphic convention and modern times. Looking at them, it's hard to believe that they all come from the same country or the same era; they seem like manifestations of totally unrelated cultures. In July and August, the Metropolitan Museum of Art showed Robert Ellsworth's collection of recent ink painting in the exhibition ''Modern Chinese Painting, 1860-1980''; highlights from that show remain on view in the Douglas Dillon Galleries. The Yale University Art Gallery is currently showing the lovely paintings of Mu Xin, work that incorporates fresh ideas and European antecedents but retains a clear visual connection to classical China. The Arthur M. Sackler Gallery, in Washington, has just opened a major exhibition of Xu Bing, one of modern China's most original artists; he uses calligraphy as the basis for conceptual works that are both witty and profound. And the Dia Center for Contemporary Art has material by Feng Mengbo, China's foremost computer artist, on its Web site. These all count as exhibitions of modern Chinese art -- though Mr. Mu and Mr. Xu have both emigrated to the United States, they have relatively little in common, conceptually or stylistically. Western and Japanese influences were strong in Shanghai by the late 19th century, and life drawing was taught at the Roman Catholic church there. Though some artists learned foreign techniques, many determined that they must work in the most traditional styles to safeguard China's heritage. ''If the painter cannot do calligraphy,'' said Zhao Zhiqian, a painter who died in 1884 and is included in the Met exhibition, ''his work will be vulgar.'' By the 20th century, change was on its way, and the artists' mantra was ''Chinese essential principles with Western practical knowledge.'' After the Qing Dynasty collapsed in 1911, the new minister of education declared that aesthetics should replace religion. The guohua tradition was invigorated by new information and remained strong, even as some Chinese painters went to Paris and produced Impressionist or Western-style academic painting. Choice of style indicated political tendencies; isolationist and nationalist artists worked in guohua while more liberal internationalist artists worked in Western styles. After 1949, the political meaning of such choices became stronger. The communist government favored Socialist Realism as practiced in the Soviet Union. In a curious alliance, Maoists, avant-gardists and many Western critics have disparaged guohua as reactionary, claiming that the tradition died between the end of the Qing Dynasty and the Cultural Revolution. The exhibition of recent guohua at the Met Museum demonstrates that the style has retained vitality even as it has lost importance, and so recalls a really fine show of cowboy art or contemporary romantic landscapes. Maxwell K. Hearn, curator of Chinese paintings at the Met, explains that the guohua belongs in his department (which is where it may be seen) while the yanghua, or Western-influenced art, belongs in the department of 20th-century art, even though it may all have been made at the same time, in the same cities, by people the same ages. The exhibition of Mu Xin at Yale occupies a fertile middle ground between guohua and modernism. This is painting of such exquisite sophistication and such dazzling texture as to leave the greatest critics of Chinese art -- several of whom have written for the exhibition's lovely catalog -- at a loss for superlatives. Mr. Mu is classed as an ink painter by default. The surfaces of his pictures, which in many instances mix ink and gouache and possibly graphite, are worked and burnished to glow with intensity. Breaking with Chinese frontalism, they portray strange, enigmatic and powerful landscapes with considerable depth; though they are not quite realist, they have the plausible quality of dreamscapes. Born in 1927 to an intellectual and aristocratic family, Mr. Mu grew up under the tutelage of private instructors, learning calligraphy and other elegant skills. One of his relatives was a leading thinker of the pre-communist period, who believed that China must incorporate Western ideas. Mr. Mu had access to his broad-ranging private library and there became versed not only in classical Chinese material but also in the great work of Western writers and artists. In the 40's, Mr. Mu supported Mao Zedong but soon became disillusioned and withdrew into a deliberate obscurity he has largely sustained. The humbleness of his activity in a craft collective was not sufficient to spare him from persecution in the Cultural Revolution, and he spent some of China's most dire years at hard labor and more incarcerated. During this time, working by candlelight, he created the paintings now at Yale. ''By day I was a slave,'' he told the curator of the exhibition. ''By night I was a prince.'' During 1971 and 1972, when he lived in an air-raid shelter in a ''peoples' prison,'' nearly starving and in perpetual darkness, he obtained a precious 66 pieces of paper, intended for forced confessionals. Instead he covered them with minuscule characters, setting down his side of dialogues with the figures he most admired, a group that included not only the great Chinese classical scholars but also Leonardo, Tolstoy and Beethoven. In a Chinese purgatory, he strove to balance Eastern and Western artistic values. Both the notes and the paintings point toward a realm of imagination in which party politics is secondary to the humanism of Song Dynasty China (960-1279) and Renaissance Italy. It is no coincidence that most of this work has never been publicly exhibited; by inclination and necessity, Mr. Mu is self-mystifying and reclusive, though his published writing has a cultish following in the Chinese diaspora. (It is forbidden in China.) While a debate has raged about whether modern guohua is derivative, a parallel debate has suggested that Chinese artists who use Western devices are simply copying from a dominant culture to which they add little. This idea was substantially reinforced by the show of modern Chinese art mounted at the Guggenheim Downtown in 1998, an exhibition that, showing ''representative'' rather than distinguished work, obscured the accomplishments of recent artists. Modern Chinese artists who use Western information are no more copiers of Western styles than Western minimalists are copiers of Japanese Zen. More vital than the pure guohua at the Met and less rarefied than the work of Mr. Mu is shiyan meishu, or experimental art. Xu Bing is one of the movement's most impressive exponents; the Sackler exhibition, far and away the largest show of a living artist ever mounted there, seems to confirm his singular place in the United States. Mr. Xu, the son of a librarian, was surrounded by books from an early age. When he was little -- in the early 1960's -- he was unable to read them, and later he was not allowed to do so because the Cultural Revolution had forbidden everything but agitprop. After 1977, he became one of the youngest artists ever to teach in the Central Academy in Beijing. While he satisfied the authorities, he quietly developed his iconoclastic ideas and in 1988 stunned the art world and angered the authorities with his ''Book From the Sky,'' perhaps the single greatest icon of shiyan meishu. For it, he invented more than 1,000 false characters, which appear legible but are in fact meaningless. He carved these into movable type, which he used to make four massive books, full of meaning but devoid of signification. During the Cultural Revolution, Mr. Xu had learned to be wary of words, but he could not break himself of a love for the form of them, and words have been the underlying subject of everything he has done. The ''Book From the Sky'' denotes the impossible weight of a Chinese tradition that no one can now understand; it evokes the perilous ignorance of a generation that went unschooled during the Cultural Revolution; it reflects on the futility of all communication; it is at once scholarly and atavistic. The Communist Party reacted violently when the work was shown in 1989, and essays about Mr. Xu soon emerged saying, in one instance, that ''to have no purpose at all is absurd and dissolute''; in another that Mr. Xu ''came under the influence of foreign thought and abandoned art for the people''; and in yet another that ''the capitalist artists want to state their lies as truths and display their nonstuff as art, to use lies to dupe the masses.'' Under mounting pressure, Mr. Xu left China. Though it is tempting to assume that work that attracted such criticism is about contemporary politics, Mr. Xu follows a very high Chinese tradition, established during the Song Dynasty, of voicing existential questions as a means of elegant dissent from the policies and social reality of his time. His life was in fact shaped by politics, but the work addresses the very source of politics rather than the policies of the Chinese government. Feng Mengbo is China's leading computer artist, a practitioner of perhaps the most exotic form of shiyan meishu. He is of the post-Cultural Revolution generation and has grown up in a consumerist China. On the Dia Web site, at www .diacenter.org/mengbo, in a work called ''Phantom Tales,'' he recreates the slide shows that were a popular form of low-budget propaganda in the 1970's. The first two tales are drawn from storybooks. To a viewer unfamiliar with the popular narratives, the plot is hard to follow, but the material is still moving. A spotlight travels, like a child's eye, across a succession of images, stopping at the most disturbing ones. The artist explained to me that he had set out to capture the traumatic experience of a childhood marked not only by violence in the streets but also by exposure to misery in this educational material. In other works, Mr. Feng has connected such material from his childhood and the violent video games popular with contemporary Chinese children. The artist's next major project is ''Q4U,'' a fully interactive video game to be launched by the Renaissance Society of Chicago University in January. Mr. Feng has incorporated a self-portrait into the popular video game Quake, and players engage in a struggle to kill or be killed by the artist. The installation will include play stations, but anyone with sufficient RAM and appropriate hardware and software will be able to play over the Internet. Modern China mixes conservative and culturally distinctive Chinese ideas, high-flown antique elitism, radical ideas that are open to Western influence and original ideas that are modern and Chinese and unsourceable. Great things are accomplished within each of these mind-sets. To focus too specifically on any one of them is to underestimate China itself and to miss a rare chance to see a thousand flowers bloom.

Subject: Reflections of a Restless China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 12:27:11 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/08/arts/dance/08joyc.html?ei=5070&en=7fcc98505141c024&ex=1120622400&emc=eta1&pagewanted=all&position= February 8, 2005 In Modern Dance, Reflections of a Restless China in Flux By ANNA KISSELGOFF In a country where the arts are expected to support government policy rather than exist primarily as independent forms, China's still-young and rapidly expanding modern dance has a distinct advantage. It is a wordless means of individual expression, especially open to ambiguity and interpretation. When the Beijing Modern Dance Company, founded in 1995, makes its New York debut tonight at the Joyce Theater, with 'Rear Light,' a piece choreographed to music from 'The Wall,' the 1979 rock album by Pink Floyd, viewers will certainly spot the general aura of alienation. It may be less easy to agree about specifics. The sight of young people placed 'up against the wall' and of crime-scene body silhouettes painted on the floor as well as dancing that veers between turbulence and regimentation may all evoke the 1989 repression of demonstrators in Tiananmen Square. Yet there is also an intimate male-female duet and a wild disco scene, usually with audience participation onstage. For Willy Tsao, the company's Hong Kong-born artistic director, this disco episode is not just a release but also a critique of mindless youth. 'It shows a wild bunch of kids enjoying themselves,' Mr. Tsao said. 'They don't know what's going on around them. They hide from the truth.' Any recent visitor to China who has run into the night life in Shanghai and Beijing or seen the pop art in official museums that portrays Maoists and punk rockers side by side will understand that artists who do not want a return to the past may also be unhappy with China's rediscovery of materialist values. An allegorical transposition of the original tale about an alienated rock star in the 1982 movie version of 'The Wall,' 'Rear Light' is at a far remove from a realistic dance about peasants in the fields that was included in the 1991 United States debut of the Guangdong Modern Dance Company, the seedbed of Chinese contemporary dance. Reflecting a society in flux, professional modern dance has spread beyond Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai to attract budding choreographers in universities in other provinces. True to the essence of modern dance anywhere, it is no longer limited to one kind of movement idiom or aesthetic. Interviewed by phone during the company's current United States tour, Mr. Tsao said that Li Han-zhong and Ma Bo, the husband-and-wife team who choreographed 'Rear Light,' tend toward 'very angry pieces.' But 'Rear Light,' he insisted, is one of those works whose meaning changes with its viewer. He agreed that the body silhouettes refer to people who have been killed. 'But these things happen anywhere,' he said. 'People were killed in Yugoslavia and are killed in Iraq.' Mr. Tsao is aware that not all, especially in the West, will accept this wider view. The point he wishes to make is that it would be right to read 'a yearning for individuality and free expression' into such works. 'Dancers are not afraid to say that they are not satisfied,' he added, 'and they say it through the body.' For Ralph Samuelson, director of the New York-based Asian Cultural Council, which has helped finance training and teaching for Chinese modern dancers and choreographers both in the United States and in China, 'China is very different from what it was.' Yet, he added, there are three subjects that are taboo there in modern dance: sex, attacks on political leaders and violence. Mr. Tsao said that the line was drawn at nudity and direct criticism of Chinese leaders. But like Mr. Samuelson, he notes that much has changed since the Guangdong Modern Dance Company, China's first professional modern-dance company, was formed in 1990. It was a carefully prepared birth, sparked by the 1986 visit of Yang Mei-qi, head of the Guangdong Dance Academy, to the American Dance Festival at its summer home at Duke University in Durham, N.C. The festival, through its International Choreographers Workshop, played a major role in helping Ms. Yang organize a three-year program (1987-90) to train dancers and nurture new choreographers. Mr. Tsao, who advised the Guangdong company until 1998 and is now its overall director, said the training struck local cultural officials as too American. Looking back on these beginnings, Charles Reinhart, the American Dance Festival's director, remains adamant about the project's goal. 'Our whole point was not to come in like the Soviet balletmasters did in China and say, this is our 'Swan Lake,' copy it,' he said. 'The idea was to provide them with modern dance training and let them run with it to develop their own genius.' The first generation in the Guangdong troupe spawned China's leading modern-dance choreographers in a remarkably short time. They include Shen Wei, highly acclaimed on the international festival circuit and based in New York. 'The seeds in modern dance creativity have grown so fast in China that we have come full circle,' Mr. Reinhart said, referring to Mr. Shen. 'You could say that one of the most talented choreographers in America today is Chinese.' Mr. Samuelson said that in the 1980's Chinese choreographers didn't want to go home but 'now mostly they do.' Guangdong alumni include Wang Mei, who heads the modern dance program at the Beijing Dance Academy, and Jin Xing, who showed indisputable talent when he choreographed for American Dance Festival students in the 1980's and early 90's. In 1995 the Beijing Cultural Bureau asked him to become the Beijing Modern Dance Company's first artistic director - just after he underwent a sex change to become China's most publicized transsexual. Retaining the same name as a woman, Ms. Jin now choreographs for her own company in Shanghai. A major figure in fostering interest in modern dance is Mr. Tsao, who is choreographer for his City Contemporary Dance Company in Hong Kong and who is credited by American observers with donating his own money to the Guangdong and Beijing companies. 'Willy saved the companies,' Mr. Samuelson said. 'They couldn't sustain themselves.' Whether Mr. Tsao's taste influences these companies is open to debate. Americans can judge for themselves when the Kennedy Center presents the Guangdong, Beijing and Hong Kong companies on the same program in October. 'I have apartments in three cities,' Mr. Tsao said. There is no question that he has fostered the growth of different choreographers both in the companies and in the annual dance festival he established in Beijing in 1999 and moved to Guangzhou last year. 'If it is only one type of modern dance, it will be a failure,' he said. 'Chinese modern dancers are finding a new language. I don't see that in Europe and America. 'In the second year of our festival, students from seven colleges asked to present their choreography. It was amateurish, but it opened a door. In 2003 we had 18 universities participating, with many painting and literature students. A computer science student formed a company, the Young Crops Society, after he choreographed for the festival. His works were very calm and quiet, like a computer.' Mr. Tsao sees greater freedom in the fact that arts financing is being cut back on the provincial and municipal levels. The Beijing troupe is mainly underwritten by corporations, he said. Mr. Tsao said the company's status as an independent group without subsidy left it free of censorship. 'No government official came to see the work we are presenting now in the United States,' he said. After Mr. Tsao succeeded Ms. Jin as artistic director in Beijing in 1999, he said, 'I had to spend time on radio talk shows, explaining modern dance.' Government officials suggested he present works that were 'traditional and Chinese.' 'My response,' he said, 'is that modern dance is not a cultural trait. If you have a sense of freedom, Chinese modern dance can come of age. If the perception is that you have only to create something different from the West, that is a limitation.'

Subject: An Organic Drift From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 10:56:09 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/opinion/04fri4.html November 4, 2005 An Organic Drift Organic food has become a very big business, with a 20 percent annual growth rate in sales in recent years. But popularity has come at a price. Ever since 2002, when the Department of Agriculture began its program of national organic certification, there has been a steady lobbying effort to weaken standards in a way that makes it easier for the giant food companies, which often use synthetic substances in processing, to enter the organic market. That's exactly why many organic farmers greeted the U.S.D.A.'s organic seal with real trepidation. They know that the one thing the department has always done especially well is to capitulate to the lobbying pressure of big food and big agriculture. Last week, an amendment was slipped into the agricultural spending bill without meaningful debate in a closed-door Republican meeting. It would do two things. It would overturn a court decision reinstating the old legal standard that prohibits synthetic substances in organic foods. And it would allow the agriculture secretary to approve synthetic substances if no organic substitute was commercially available. In part, this is a battle over a label. The big producers, which often use synthetic materials in processing, want to call their processed foods organic because that designation commands premium prices. They do not want to say their products are made with organic ingredients - a lesser designation that allows more synthetics. This is also a cultural battle, a struggle between the people who have long kept the organic faith - despite the historic neglect of the U.S.D.A. - and industry giants that see a rapidly expanding and highly profitable niche that can be pried open even further with lobbying. 'Organic' is not merely a label, a variable seal of approval at the end of the processing chain. It means a way of raising crops and livestock that is better for the soil, the animals, the farmers and the consumers themselves - a radical change, in other words, from conventional agriculture. Unless consumers can be certain that those standards are strictly upheld, 'organic' will become meaningless.

Subject: The Capitol's Revolting Door From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 10:54:54 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/opinion/04fri3.html November 4, 2005 The Capitol's Revolting Door A Senate hearing has provided a rarefied look at Washington's ever-whirring carousel for business lobbyists and government appointees, who spin back and forth between the private and public sectors in a blur of opportunism. The Interior Department's former deputy secretary, Steven Griles - who had been tapped for that job by the Bush administration when he worked as a lobbyist for the mining industry - was accused of using his government post to carry out the bidding of Jack Abramoff, the indicted power lobbyist who sought favorable Interior rulings for Indian-tribe clients vying for casinos. A former counsel at the department testified that Mr. Griles had meddled aggressively in decisions affecting Abramoff clients. And Senator John McCain produced e-mail about Mr. Abramoff's trying to woo the deputy secretary's favor by offering a lucrative job in - where else? - lobbying. Mr. Griles denied any inside favoritism and said the job offer had surprised him enough to refer it to ethics officials. This had to be bemusing to Capitol veterans, who are aware that lobbyists are subjected to some of the flimsiest rules in Washington. As the hearing went forward, it was hard to tell where lobbying ends and public service begins. Mr. Griles turned out to have met Mr. Abramoff by way of a political friend of Interior Secretary Gale Norton. That friend, Italia Federici, is the head of a conservative environmental lobbying group that received Abramoff donations. Senator McCain, saying she seemed to be valued for having 'juice' at Interior, is seeking her testimony. Then there were side tales of Ralph Reed, once the boy-wonder promoter of moral values at the Christian Coalition, and his lobbying ties to Mr. Abramoff's casino dealings. Stay tuned, but don't ask where it will end, because lobbying is a $3-billion-a-year Capitol institution these days. The hearings have established that for all the election-winning talk of big government as the problem, it can also provide a sweet perch for the victors. Mr. Griles, incidentally, left public service after four years and has returned to the private sector. He is a lobbyist.

Subject: In Paris, Tough Talk Isn't Enough From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 07:25:33 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/04/opinion/04fri2.html November 4, 2005 In Paris, Tough Talk Isn't Enough The suburbs of Paris have a long history of violent uprisings by enraged residents. But the nightly clashes in the grimy northeastern environs over the past week have been grimly contemporary. The rioters torching cars and pelting the police are mainly the sons of African and Arab immigrants, most of them Muslims, who have never been integrated into French society, who work for the lowest wages and who live in ghettos rife with crime. The daily images of helmeted police officers and angry youths silhouetted against blazing cars near dilapidated apartment blocks should remind the French that they have a huge problem in need of urgent attention. France clings to its cherished approach to immigration, which has been to declare that once in France, everyone is French and therefore equal, and that's that. The truth is that everyone is not French, nor equal, especially in an era of soaring immigration. The old approach gets in the way of real affirmative action or community outreach. Efforts at imposed integration, like the ban that keeps Muslim girls from wearing head scarves in state schools, have only antagonized immigrants. Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who has ambitions to be president, has not been much help. He called the rioters 'scum' and said the answer was zero tolerance of crime. A better answer would involve job opportunities, decent housing and good education for these new citizens.

Subject: Love the Riches, Lose the Rags From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 05:54:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/fashion/thursdaystyles/03cindy.html November 3, 2005 Love the Riches, Lose the Rags By JODI KANTOR ONCE upon a time, Cinderella was one of the humblest souls in the world of children's entertainment. Named for the soot she constantly swept from her wicked stepfamily's hearth, she befriended rodents and warbled patiently until she was rescued by her fairy godmother and her prince. Lately, though, Cinderella has become another kind of character: a retail giantess and one of the dominant figures of this year's all-important Halloween-to-Christmas stretch. Over the past month alone she has opened her own boutiques in every Toys 'R' Us across the country, sold a million DVD copies of her classic animated film in a single day and inspired flocks of little girls to don sparkly light-blue tulle for Halloween. More than a millennium after her creation and 55 years after her Disneyization, Cinderella has gone from a stalwart to a phenomenon with the kind of hypnotic effect exerted by only a few characters per generation. 'It's everywhere I turn, and she's obsessed with it,' said Suzanne Brady of Wantagh, N.Y., of her 2-year old daughter, Reilly. But the Cinderella featured in the new crush of products is quite different from the docile, selfless young lady of earlier versions. In the Brothers Grimm and Disney movie stories, the character is distinguished by her modesty and lack of concern with material possessions. These days, she rarely wears anything but a sumptuous ball gown, prefers the company of fellow royals, shops at a glass slipper boutique, and encourages her young charges to primp for hours at her top-selling Magical Talking Vanity ($69.99). As a result, many little girls now think of Cinderella as a princess with a gilded lifestyle instead of a cruelly oppressed wretch. When Lynn Zerbib of Larchmont, N.Y., took her 4-year-old daughter, Alison, to a live theatrical version of the fairy tale, 'all she wanted was to see Cinderella in her dress and couldn't understand why she was in rags for the entire play,' Ms. Zerbib said. In fact, Cinderella lust causes some young devotees to behave more like her wicked stepsisters. 'Literally, the dresses get fought over by the little girls,' said Elaine Harrop of Farmingdale, N.Y., as her 3-year-old daughter, Kaitlyn, repeatedly flung herself at a Cinderella statue in the World of Disney Store in Manhattan on Saturday, clutching at the stiff skirt. (Like several dozen other devotees, Kaitlyn had lined up for a photo session with the princess herself, played by a sweetly smiling actress in a blond bouffant helmet). According to Ms. Brady, Cinderella getups were so ubiquitous for Halloween they inspired a competitive frenzy. 'It's all about who has the nicest costume,' she said. 'I feel like I have to outdo everybody because everyone is going to be Cinderella. It's who's got the tiaras, the dresses, the shoes.' The current interpretation of the character is 'Cinderella as Material Girl,' said Gregory Maguire, the author of 'Wicked,' which retells 'The Wizard of Oz' with sympathy for its supposed villain; and of 'Confessions of an Ugly Stepsister,' which does the same for 'Cinderella.' Fairy tales, he said, are 'secular parables' in which 'we can discuss our own desires.' If so, the latest Cinderella says as much about consumers as it does about Disney, and it may be just right for an age in which vanity is rarely a sin, and covetousness is perfectly acceptable. Alida Allison, a professor at the National Center for the Study of Children's Literature at San Diego State University, said the rebranded Cinderella inverts the original fairy tale. 'The beauty and material possession competition fostered by the consumer Cinderella campaign contradicts the folkloric message that a princess is someone who merits ascendancy, not just someone who can afford it,' she said. The Cinderella makeover began four years ago, when Disney consolidated several of its animated female characters, from Snow White (1937) to Mulan (1998), into the Princess line, forming a kind of supersorority of Disney heroines. The results were overwhelming: a royalty craze that extended to everything from Halloween costumes (this year, according to the National Retail Federation, princesses outnumbered witches by more than two to one) to movies like 'The Princess Diaries,' and worldwide sales of products in the Princess line that reached almost $3 billion this year. Cinderella, meanwhile, rapidly became the brand's first among equals. Next to can-do contemporary heroines like Ariel of 'The Little Mermaid' and Jasmine of 'Aladdin,' her lilting speech and unprotesting manner seemed quaint. But the success of the Princess brand, said Chris Byrne, a toy consultant, hinged on a particular insight: girls are no longer content to merely play with dolls or watch movies depicting their heroines; instead, they actually want to be princesses themselves. After all, who wants to sit passively, watching a cartoon character having all the fun, when there are sparkly tiaras to wear and glass slippers to totter in? 'When we developed the line, it was around the concept of role play and transformation,' said Mary Beech, vice president of girls' franchise brands for Disney's consumer products division. And girls wanted to be Cinderella more than they did any other character. 'She has almost everything a girl needs: a fairy godmother, royal ball, fabulous ball gowns, a royal coach,' Ms. Beech said. The role-play approach encourages fans to use their imaginations to concoct their own Cinderella stories - but it also makes shopping for fabulous accessories central to the fairy-tale experience. In some ways, it's a natural extension of the Disney film, which climaxes with the heroine's acquisition of shimmering goodies. 'If your parents can buy you this stuff, you are Cinderella,' Dr. Allison said. No wonder they find it hard to refuse: the legend features an evil mother figure who denies Cinderella the accoutrements she deserves, and a beneficent one who makes them magically appear. At the same time, the emphasis on independent role-playing makes the official tale and its lessons less central. Many recent young fans have sworn their allegiance to Cinderella without ever seeing the animated film that introduced her as a Disney character. The company tightly controls its classic movies, releasing them only every 7 to 10 years. 'Cinderella' had last been released in 1995, and while some video stores still rented those beat-up VHS copies, a new, Princess-crazy generation of fans was eager to buy the DVD, which was released on Oct. 4. But the related products took precedence: girls who may or may not have seen the movie were spending afternoons getting to know her through baubles from the Princess line. Two months before the release of the DVD - restored but otherwise unchanged from the 1950 original movie - Disney introduced more than 250 Cinderella items, promoting them in Toys 'R' Us boutiques and in center-aisle displays in every Wal-Mart store. For Simone Bonnet, 4, of Denver, the line of merchandise 'has a life of its own,' said her mother, Suzanne. 'The movie is just another one' of the many Cinderella items to be purchased, she said. Disney acknowledges this change, but stresses the primacy of the story. 'Girls learn about the characters in all different ways,' Ms. Beech said. 'It may be through a costume she has a chance to experience at her friend's house. But at the end of the day, the storytelling is paramount. They want to act out what happened to Cinderella.' Perhaps because interest in the character no longer requires a full understanding of the narrative, her fans are younger than ever. Even though Ms. Beech tends to keep Princess products out of the house - she is surrounded by them at work, she says - her own 18-month-old daughter, who hasn't yet seen the movie or read a Cinderella book, is already clamoring for her first pair of glass slippers. A more typical case of Cinderella preoccupation begins around 2, and wanes by 6. 'Kids get older younger now,' said Bob Chapek, president of Buena Vista Home Entertainment. 'When I started in this business 12 years ago, kids entered into the Disney Classic range at 6. Now, at 2 to 3 years old, kids are buying the Cinderella classic DVD.' When they do, they will find a gentle, nonthreatening story. Pre-Disney versions of the legend were gruesome cautionary tales; the Grimm Brothers rendition ends with the stepsisters punished for their glass-slipper fetish by being permanently hobbled, and for their vanity by having their eyes pecked out by birds. But for toddlers, Disney's telling presents no such terrors, only a badly tempered cat, the petulant stepsisters Drizella and Anastasia, and an elegantly menacing stepmother. Even women on the other end of the age spectrum seem to adore the character, especially when it comes to the kinds of role-playing exercises so popular with the 4-year-old set. At the Disney parks, the most popular theme wedding is the Cinderella one. For $2,500, a bride can arrive in a glass coach copied straight from the film, drawn by four ponies. Younger girls, meanwhile, are watching their movies on special pink-and-blue Cinderella television and DVD players, dressing their dogs in Cinderella costumes and eating breakfast made in a waffle iron that stamps her image into the batter. 'You want to feel like a princess every moment of every day,' Ms. Beech said, 'even if you're riding a bike or kicking a soccer ball.' It is even possible, as one mother at the Disney store confessed, to go to the bathroom the Cinderella way. 'There's Drizella and there's Anastasia,' her recently toilet-trained daughter remarks when she flushes.

Subject: To be or not to be Brittney Spears From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 11:07:35 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: they actually want to be princesses themselves. You always make me laugh Emma - that was hilarious. I shall share another personal story of Johnny5. First however - see how these marketing DEMONS play on the emotions of women and children - the poor man that pays the bills - he doesn't stand a chance next to that juggernaut. My brother in law confessed to me that after spending for my sister and my 2 nieces - he didn't have enough for new underwear for himself - HAHA! They get into competitions on who can get papa/hubby to spend the most - it is terrible to witness - he can never win - if he doesn't continually spend more on the next - the others will give him hell. Now to my story, I was having lunch one day with a college chemistry professor at Outback steakhouse. He had left a tip of 25 dollars for a 10 dollar meal - I said Professor - why are you doing this? You are throwing away your money - he said Johnny5 - I wish for the girls here to like me and know I have mucho cash - and that I will take care of them. I said professor - this is not the way to get a date with these girls - they can get big tips from any sucker man - they just have to act sweet. I said you have to give them something they want that they cannot get from any sucker man - and I began to tell him the story of the crooked cops in the city that used illegal drugs to get dates with these same women. He said I cant do that - if I get caught I will go to jail and lose my job - I said true - the crooked cops have the edge over you - but maybe I can help. So Johnny5 gets one of his crooked cop friends to set up a party over at the professors house and invite a few of the girls over and the crooked cop is going to bring the SNOW WHITE if you get my drift to make sure the OUTBACK waitresses show up. They do - I am talking to one of the girls - she had just got fired that day - I said why - she said she served liqour to a minor and the manager caught her and fired her! The crooked cop laughed and said hell if the manager knew what you were REALLY giving that minor - he might have called me - and then I would have had to come and make like I was arresting you! So Johnny5 finds out this girl is all into this PRINCESS - Material girl world and he asks her what music do you like - and she says brittney spears - she wants to be brittney. I said oh you want to be a big pop singer like brittney - she said no Johnny5 - you misunderstand me - I don't want to be LIKE brittney - I literally want to BE HER - like take over her body and soul with a magic spell. THe sad thing is - she was still sober at that point and had not taken any of the crooked cops SNOW WHITE. Pathetic - her and her sister both crashed out in life - living at home with momma now - broke - poor - all beacuse they wanted to BE THE PRINCESS and got set up for false dreams since they were little girls.

Subject: Re: To be or not to be Brittney Spears From: Emma To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 17:53:35 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank you :)

Subject: Re: To be or not to be Brittney Spears From: Poyetas To: Emma Date Posted: Sat, Nov 05, 2005 at 11:26:24 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message:

Subject: Creation of Creativity in China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 04:27:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ November 4, 2005 The Creative Creation of Creativity in China By Mark Thoma I have heard this same underlying adage in economics departments for many years, though in recent years I haven't heard it as often: From Gunpowder to the Next Big Bang, by Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times: There is a techie adage that goes like this: In China or Japan the nail that stands up gets hammered, while in Silicon Valley the nail that stands up drives a Ferrari and has stock options. Underlying that adage is a certain American confidence that whatever we lack in preparing our kids with strong fundamentals in math and science, we make up for by encouraging our best students to be independent, creative thinkers. I've always wondered if it the adage is a rationalization for poor U.S. performance in math and science, but apparently the belief has support in China as well: ...Even the Chinese will tell you that they've been good at making the next new thing, and copying the next new thing, but not imagining the next new thing. That may be about to change. Confident that its best K-12 students will usually outperform America's in math and science, China is focusing on how to transform its classrooms so students become more innovative. ...Harry Shum, a Carnegie Mellon-trained computer engineer ... said: 'A Chinese journalist once asked me, '...what is the difference between China and the U.S.?...' I joked, '... the difference between China high-tech and American high-tech is only three months - if you don't count creativity.' When I was a student in China 20 years ago, we didn't even know what was happening in the U.S. Now, anytime an M.I.T. guy puts up something on the Internet, students in China can absorb it in three months. How do you create imagineers? 'But could someone here create it? That is a whole other issue. I learned mostly about how to do research right at Carnegie Mellon. ... Before you create anything new, you need to understand what is already there. Once you have this foundation, being creative can be trainable. China is building that foundation. So very soon, in 10 or 20 years, you will see a flood of top-quality research papers from China.' Once more original ideas emerge, though, China will need more venture capital and the rule of law to get them to market. ... Dr. Shum said. '... I will be teaching a class at Tsinghua University next year on how to do technology-based ventures. ... You have technology in Chinese universities, but people don't know what to do with it - how to marketize it.' ... How do you say 'Ferrari' in Chinese? Creativity is built like everything else of value is built, with long hard work and as the commentary notes it starts with the construction of the proper foundation, a thorough understanding of what is known and how it came to be known, what is unknown, and what among the unknown is the most important to solve.

Subject: Why John Maynard Keynes? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 04:18:45 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://krugman.page.nytimes.com/b/a/208747.htm October 7, 2005 Why John Maynard Keynes? Jonathan P. Scoll, Edina, Minn., asks:'Of what possible relevance, other than historical curiosity, is John Maynard Keynes today? Since the American electorate has, over the last thirty years, repeatedly voted out the social contract, opting for monetary manipulation by Greenspan, et al., has it not buried Keynsianism, for good?' Paul Krugman: I think you're failing to realize just how much Keynes changed our view of the world. He was one of those thinkers whose influence runs so deep that even people who think they oppose his views see the world in a way that wasn't possible before he wrote. Greenspan's policies are actually quite Keynesian; so are most of the rationales the Bushies have used for their tax cuts. I'll try to post a bit about Keynes on TimesSelect once I'm done with the introduction to the new edition of The General Theory.

Subject: Greenspan Tax Cuts From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 10:51:18 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I watched greenspan yesterday and a couple of democratic congressmen were really trying to nail him on his tax cuts and deficit talk several years ago. He kept telling them please reach across the aisle and fix things - but they just seemed to be up to their same old partisan politics. He said the surpluses were projected by the OMB, the FED, everyone - so the tax cuts made sense. He went on to say he wanted to initiate certain automatic controls that if the surpluses turned into deficits - to undo the tax cuts and cut spending. Basically I took away that they are going to cut emma's entitlements - and that dividends will no longer be double taxed.

Subject: Re: Why John Maynard Keynes? From: Yann To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 06:55:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank you Emma. The last sentence is by PK?

Subject: Re: Why John Maynard Keynes? From: Emma To: Yann Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 07:24:29 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Question, and answer by Paul Krugman.

Subject: Why the Fed Can't Go Long From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 04:17:52 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://krugman.page.nytimes.com/b/a/215122.htm Oct. 31, 2005 Why the Fed Can't Go Long Jim Hargrove, Austin, Tex.: You commented in your recent column [''Bernanke and the Bubble''] that the Fed controls only short term interest rates. Isn't that really a policy choice that the Fed has made? Does anything prevent the F.O.M.C. [Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policiy panel] from buying longer term bonds or selling them to try to affect longer term rates? Paul Krugman: It's possible in principle for the Fed to buy long-term bonds, and it might make a difference. One of the policies urged on the Bank of Japan was precisely to buy long-term bonds. But most people who've studied the issue think that it would take huge purchases of U.S. long-term bonds to have much effect on long-term rates. What the Fed really controls is the monetary base, which has a direct impact on short-term rates. It's much harder to move the long-term rate.

Subject: Scientists Link a Prolific Gene Tree From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 15:20:23 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/science/01manc.html?ex=1288501200&en=dfcc6047669d4a7a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 Scientists Link a Prolific Gene Tree to the Manchu Conquerors of China By NICHOLAS WADE Geneticists have identified a major lineage of Y chromosomes in populations of northern China that they believe may mark the bearers as descendants of one of the Manchu conquerors who founded the Qing dynasty and ruled China from 1644 to 1911. Because the founder of the lineage lived some 500 years ago, according to calculations based on the rate of genetic change, he may have been Giocangga, who died in 1582, the grandfather of the Manchu leader Nurhaci. At least 1.6 million men now carry this Manchu Y chromosome, says Chris Tyler-Smith, the leader of a team of English and Chinese geneticists. Several historians, however, expressed reservations and said they would like to see more evidence, including testing of present-day descendants of the Qing nobility. This is not the first instance of extraordinary male procreation that Dr. Tyler-Smith has brought to light. Two years ago, after a survey of Y chromosomes across East Asia, he identified a lineage that he was able to associate with the Mongol royal house and Genghis Khan. Some 16 million men who live within the boundaries of the former Mongol empire now carry Genghis's Y chromosome, according to Dr. Tyler-Smith's calculations. The Mongol Y chromosome presumably spread so widely because of the large number of concubines amassed by Genghis and his relatives. The Manchu rulers, though not in Genghis's league, also were able to spread their lineage so far, Dr. Tyler-Smith and his colleagues suggest, because of being able to keep many concubines. Even a ninth-rank nobleman in the dynasty (whose name is pronounced ching) was entitled to receive 11 kilograms of silver and 22,000 liters of rice as his annual stipend. With colleagues in England and Beijing, Dr. Tyler-Smith identified a Y chromosome lineage that was surprisingly common among seven populations scattered across northern China, but was absent from the Han, to which most Chinese belong. Since the only other Y chromosome lineage in the region anywhere near as common was that of Genghis Khan, the founder of the new lineage seemed likely to have left his mark in the historical record, as well, Dr. Tyler-Smith says in an article to appear in the December issue of The American Journal of Human Genetics. The Manchus of the Qing dynasty seem the best candidates because there were more than 80,000 official members of the Qing dynasty by 1911, according to a history of the Manchus by Prof. Mark C. Elliott of Harvard. By counting the number of mutations in the lineage's Y chromosome, Dr. Tyler-Smith estimated that the common ancestor of all branches of the lineage lived about 500 years ago and was therefore probably the Manchu patriarch Giocangga. A puzzling feature of the geneticists' finding is that the Manchu Y chromosome they identified is quite rare in Liaoning, the original home province. Dr. Elliott said that was not necessarily surprising, because many Manchus left their homeland and relocated to Beijing after the founding of the Qing dynasty. Also, the Communist government allowed many Han who worked for the Manchu in Liaoning to claim Manchu ethnicity. Dr. James Lee, a historical demographer at the University of Michigan, said in an e-mail message from Beijing that the claim to have found a genetic link to the Qing imperial nobility in northern ethnic groups 'seems quite forced,' because most of the nobility lived in Beijing and Liaoning. Dr. Tyler-Smith responded that his colleagues in Beijing had approached several documented descendants of the nobility and invited them to participate but none accepted. After the Cultural Revolution, descent from the nobility was generally hidden, and many documents were destroyed, Dr. Tyler-Smith and colleagues write in their article. Because they could not find living Qing noblemen to test, they write, 'Our hypothetical explanation remains unproven,' despite 'strong circumstantial support.' Dr, Elliott said that he knew several people who were well-attested descendants of the Qing royal family and that an ad in a Beijing newspaper should recruit a few hundred people, if not a few thousand. Dr. Elliott said the Qing often contracted marriages with the Mongols as a means of securing political alliances, which would explain the presence of the Manchu chromosome in Mongolia. This could have also occurred with other northern ethnic groups where the Manchu chromosome is common, like the Oroqen, Hezhe and Ewenki, although those forest peoples 'did not intermarry with the Qing imperial lineage, at least not in any appreciable numbers,' he said. The fathering of many children by a single man is an instance of what biologists call male intrasexual selection. Dr. Tyler-Smith said the Manchu and Mongol chromosomes were the only genetic imprints of this size that he can see in the populations of East Asia, but that there are likely to be other instances elsewhere.

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 11:32:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 11/2/05 Australia 9.9 Canada 19.5 Denmark 16.8 France 5.7 Germany 3.8 Hong Kong 6.3 Japan 13.0 Netherlands 5.9 Norway 21.5 Sweden 2.9 Switzerland 13.2 UK 5.3

Subject: Follow the Money From: Johnny5 To: Terri Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 01:18:23 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Notice the good returns in foreign nations - notice the article I posted down from here about money flow going to chindia brazil - notice the workers in the USA not getting wage increases while other nations do - the workers who will vote in the upcoming political elections - remember the air of protectionism - cogressman schumer wants to save the little american worker - bhagwati wants to globalize - now remember this history: In 1840's we took a lot of investment money from the british to build out our Country - then we defaulted. FREE MONEY! Today we are sending a lot of western money to the east - perhaps they will repeat history and repay us our due? I hear cronyism and malinvestment is worse there than here! http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:hSrAm_MS_eMJ:www.coinbooks.org/club_nbs_esylum_v06n23.html Nichols silver daniel bell price treasury&hl=en&ie=UTF-8 I haven't seen anyone reply to this, so I thought I'd comment on Joel Orosz' note from the 12/23/01 E-Sylum in which he refers to Scrooge's poor opinion of the soundness of American financial obligations with these quotes from Chapter One of 'The House of Morgan' by Ron Chernow: 'When Baltimore merchant George Peabody sailed for London in 1835, the world was in the throes of a debt crises. The defaulting governments weren't obscure Balkan nations or South American republics but American states. The United States had succumbed to a craze for building railroads, canals, and turnpikes, all backed by state credit. Now Maryland legislators, with the bravado of the ruined, threatened to join other states in skipping interest payments on their bonds, which were largely marketed in London.' Later, Chernow states: 'During the severe depression of the early 1840s - a decade dubbed the Hungry Forties - state debt plunged to fifty cents on the dollar. The worst came when five American states - Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Indiana, Arkansas, and Michigan - and the Florida territory defaulted on their interest payments.' 'British investors cursed America as a land of cheats, rascals, and ingrates. State defaults also tainted federal credit, and when Washington sent Treasury agents to Europe in 1842, James de Rothschild thundered, 'Tell them you have seen the man who is at the head of the finances of Europe, and that he has told you that they cannot borrow a dollar. Not a dollar.' Clergyman Sydney Smith sneered at the American 'mob' and said that whenever he met a Pennsylvanian at a London dinner, he felt 'a disposition to seize and divide him. . . . How such a man can set himself down at an English table without feeling that he owes two or three pounds to every man in the company, I am at a loss to conceive, he has no more right to eat with honest men than a leper has to eat with clean men.' Even Charles Dickens couldn't resist a jab, portraying a nightmare in which Scrooge's solid British assets are transformed into 'a mere United States' security.'' As you can see, Dickens wasn't the only person at the time with a poor opinion of US securities, and not without good reason! Greedy english lost thier asses - that damn rothschild that enslaved our forefathers before they fled to the USA got his financial ass handed to him! We used his own greed against him to finance our expansion! We beat that greedy sob at his own game! Hehe - are the tables about to turn? Some say financial markets are much more mature today - that funny derivatves and crooked accounting will ensure history does not repeat itself - this time its DIFFERENT. I read reports about QCOM and Big Pharma maybe cannot enforce property rights over seas - I read reports Hollywood gonna go bankrupt because china stealing all thier movies. We took the british money and never paid it back - will china do that to the western investors today? Doesn't seem like we can FORCE them to HONOR the LAW eh?

Subject: Index Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 11:28:50 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 11/2/05 Australia 16.2 Canada 17.7 Denmark 32.0 France 19.0 Germany 17.0 Hong Kong 6.0 Japan 28.8 Netherlands 19.3 Norway 29.6 Sweden 23.7 Switzerland 27.3 UK 13.9

Subject: Green Dreams in Shangri-La From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 10:01:44 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://select.nytimes.com/2005/10/28/opinion/28friedman.html October 28, 2005 Green Dreams in Shangri-La By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Shangri-La County, China I came to Shangri-La and I met the Buddha. Well, not the Buddha, but one of the 'living Buddhas' designated by the Buddhist hierarchy as spiritual leaders throughout this Tibetan region of China, and not the mythic Shangri-La of 'Lost Horizon,' but this lush western China countryside near the border with Burma that has renamed itself Shangri-La to attract more tourists. But don't underestimate this Shangri-La. Its spectacular wetlands, pine forests and mountains (this is where your rhododendrons originally came from) make up one of the 34 biodiversity hot spots designated worldwide by Conservation International as places with large numbers of unique plant and animal species threatened by human development - which, once lost, may never come back. And that's why I came here. Because Shangri-La County is a microcosm of the biggest challenge facing China. Put simply: if development doesn't come to Shangri-La and other rural areas, the divide between haves and have-nots will widen and destabilize China. But if the wrong development comes here, it will add to global warming and ravage the rural environment where many of China's indigenous cultures and species are nested. Yes, China must get its smoke-belching factories out of the coastal cities because they are making the cities unlivable, but if it just pushes them into the countryside, they will destroy way too much of China's farmland, and the natural areas that are the home of things like Tibetan culture.... The good, and surprising, news I found in Shangri-La was how much the poor villagers here were coming up with their own green growth solutions. For instance, the 39 families in the village of Hamugu have bundled their savings to build a lodge for ecotourists drawn by the wetlands. 'We just need a Web site,' the manager told me. A local botanist has built Shangri-La Alpine Botanic Garden, which employs two dozen people and shares profits with the local village....

Subject: China's Little Green Book From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 09:59:20 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://select.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/opinion/02friedman.html November 2, 2005 China's Little Green Book By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN BEIJING There are only about 60 gold-standard green buildings in the world - that is, buildings certified by the U.S. Green Building Council as having been made with the materials and systems that best reduce waste, emissions and energy use. One of those buildings is in Beijing - China's Ministry of Science and Technology, at 55 Yuyuantan Nanlu Street. I toured it the other day with Robert Watson from the Natural Resources Defense Council, who advised China in designing the building. What struck me most was how much stuff in China's greenest building was labeled 'Made in China.' Get used to it. In China, conservation is not a 'personal virtue,' as Dick Cheney would say. Today it is a necessity. It was so polluted in Beijing the other day you could not make out buildings six blocks away. That's the bad news. Here's the good news: China's leaders and business community know it. They know that as China grows more prosperous, and more Chinese buy homes and cars, it must urgently adopt green technologies; otherwise, it will destroy its environment and its people. Green technology will decide whether China continues on its current growth path or chokes itself to death. So green innovation is starting to mushroom in China. And what's the U.S. doing as green technology is emerging as the most important industry of the 21st century? Let's see: the Bush team is telling our manufacturers they don't have to improve auto mileage standards or appliance efficiency, is looking to ease regulations on oil refiners and is rejecting a gas tax that would help shift America to hybrid vehicles. We should be doing just the opposite: creating more pressures and incentives so our companies will innovate and dominate the next great industry. You think China is cleaning our clock now with cheap clothing? Wait a decade, when we'll have to import our green technology from Beijing, just as we have to import hybrid motors today from Japan. Green China will be much more challenging than Red China. Look around the nine-story Ministry of Science and Technology building. Yes, a lot of cool things here are from Europe, and some are from the U.S. But what about the porous pavement bricks, made of fly ash, a byproduct of coal combustion that allows storm water to flow through and be reabsorbed into the Beijing aquifer? Made in China. The photovoltaic panels that provide 10 percent of the building's electricity from sunlight? Made in China. The solar hot water system? Made in China. The soil substitute in the building's roof garden that is 75 percent lighter than regular dirt and holds three to four times more water per cubic foot? Made in China. The concrete building blocks filled with insulating foam that keeps you warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer? Made in China, by a U.S.-owned company. The water-free urinals? Made for the China market by a U.S.-owned company....

Subject: Jobs and Joblessness on the Gulf Coast From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 07:07:39 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/opinion/02weds3.html?ex=1288587600&en=eaa1eda00a6f8b53&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 2, 2005 Jobs and Joblessness on the Gulf Coast The White House announced last week that it would reinstate the Davis-Bacon Act, the law that guarantees that construction workers on federally financed projects be paid at least the minimum prevailing wage. In an executive proclamation shortly after Hurricane Katrina, President Bush had revoked the law's wage protections for workers in storm-struck parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Let's hope this reversal is the start of a trend because more wrongs need righting. The Labor Department has not yet restored the rule - also suspended shortly after Katrina - requiring federal contractors on hurricane-related projects to have a plan for hiring women, minorities, Vietnam veterans and the disabled. And Congress has not yet provided adequate unemployment benefits for some 400,000 people who lost their jobs to Katrina. Even a recent $400 million grant to help Louisiana with unemployment claims is less than half of the projected need for the coming year. Unemployment pay from the states averages $270 a week nationwide. But in Louisiana, it's $192, and in Mississippi it's $169, the lowest in the country. Federal unemployment aid, generally for the self-employed, is no better. It all adds up to peanuts for the unemployed, who, in many cases, have lost everything and who are scattered around the country in places where costs are higher than in their home states. The federal government must increase both state and federal unemployment benefits to a level that's closer to the national average, and increase their duration, which is now 26 weeks. Widespread unemployment from Katrina is as much a national disaster as the destruction of infrastructure. The afflicted states simply can't afford to foot the whole bill - and shouldn't have to. In the months since Katrina, plans to increase unemployment aid have flitted across Congress's legislative radar screen, only to vanish as Republican lawmakers prepare to push a $70 billion tax cut package, much of it to benefit millionaire investors. As they did with the Davis-Bacon law, government leaders have to turn back from their wrongheaded pursuits and do the right things instead - and, preferably, soon.

Subject: Help Students Over the Science Blahs From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 06:02:28 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/science/01conv.html?ex=1288501200&en=26521bb8eb98f834&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 Physics Laureate Hopes to Help Students Over the Science Blahs By CLAUDIA DREIFUS BOULDER, Colo. - The Nobel laureate Carl E. Wieman may have won the highest honor in science, but he spends a big part of his life teaching physics to undergraduates at the University of Colorado. In recent years, Colorado has become something of a mini-factory for Nobelists. Last month, John L. Hall, known as Jan, was chosen as one of three physics winners for his work on lasers. Dr. Wieman and Eric A. Cornell, a colleague, were co-winners with Wolfgang Ketterle in 2001 for proving the existence of an exotic form of matter known as the Bose-Einstein condensate. Thomas Cech won the 1989 chemistry prize. Since winning, Dr. Wieman has led reform of the way undergraduate physics is taught at universities. He does so, in part, by example. 'Many science professors aim only to produce more scientists when they teach,' Dr. Wieman, 54, said in an interview in his office. 'They teach to one-tenth of 1 percent of the students. That's not good for society. It's producing a citizenry that thinks of science as having no connection to their lives.' Q. Your colleague John Hall has just won a Nobel Prize for applying quantum physics to optics research. Have you given him any Nobel advice yet? A. No. Jan is much more senior. He's 71 and at a very different stage in his career and his life. I would not feel in a position to give him any advice, except perhaps, 'Remember to bow to the king of Sweden after he hands you the award.' As you may recall, when we received the prize, my close friend and collaborator Eric Cornell forgot to bow. I still kid him about it. Q. You used your Nobel money to finance a project aimed at changing the way undergraduate physics is taught in the United States. Why give away a quarter of a million dollars? A. I've long thought that undergraduate science is poorly taught. Undergraduates think of science usually as something they have to 'go through,' a class where they memorize a bunch of disconnected facts and formulas. It has no connection to anything around them. They learn it in the same way they might learn Latin - by rote. Moreover, the subject matter is taught quickly, overwhelmingly, without any concern for what young people can take in cognitively. After a while you have them thinking, This is what science is! And then you get them graduating and sometimes becoming K-12 teachers themselves. They then repeat this, believing, This is how science should be taught, because this is how I was taught. I wanted to employ new teaching techniques and technology to find ways to break this cycle. My wife is a physicist, with a good job. We're more than comfortably off. We weren't going to spend the money on ourselves, anyway. Q. What exactly did your prize money buy? A. Well, I teach a basic two-term undergraduate course for nonscientists, The Physics of Everyday Life. This year I'm teaching, Physics for Engineers. The money bought staff and technology to do things differently in those classes. A lot of it went to pay people to work with me to create interactive animated simulations that teach students basic physics concepts. We've posted these on the Web - phet.colorado.edu - so that other teachers can benefit from our work. It's downloadable and free. In the class, we experiment with different ways to engage the students. I've been able to hire Kathy Perkins, who co-teaches with me and helped create a completely original curriculum. We have 6 teaching assistants for almost 200 students, and they meet the students in small groups. We also have a homework workshop, where students get help with their assignments. The main thing is, We never go faster than the students. Most science courses streak through the course work. We make sure the kids have learned concepts before we go on. A lot of why science is so frightening to many is that teachers present material at several times the pace any reasonable person can absorb. Q. How do you know your students have mastered concepts? A. Through technology. Each student has a clicker at their desk - which makes it possible for them to input onto a large computer screen at the front of the room. In the course of each class, we'll have 'clicker questions' on the lecture material. The students then break into three-person 'consensus groups' where they discuss the questions. With their clickers, they send in answers and then the whole class will see what's correct. When we're done, we call on people, asking them to justify what they've done. There's no memorization here. If there are a lot of incorrect responses, we slow down. Q. As I watched you teach earlier today, I had the feeling you were setting a tone that went, more or less, 'Professor Wieman believes you can understand this.' Is that what you're trying to do? A. Well, I believe they can. When I'm teaching I try to show how physics concepts work in everyday life. Microwave ovens? Everyone uses them. I show the physics principles involved. This morning, I talked about how atoms and electrons behave and how that can have all kinds of useful applications in making better lighting. This is not a part of any quantum mechanics course they'll be able to find elsewhere. Q. You won the 2001 Nobel Prize for helping to prove the existence of the Bose-Einstein condensate. This new form of matter was predicted by Einstein. Did you perform your work just to prove the master right? A. Eric Cornell and I worked on it because it was exciting. I wanted to make this new material, which would have really fascinating properties and would give us all kinds of interesting questions and behaviors to look at - aspects of which Einstein hadn't looked at, at all. It was all about the physics. Now I should say that when it started to look feasible - there was somewhat of a race to prove Bose-Einstein. There were other labs working on it. And O.K., I'm pretty competitive. Most very good scientists are competitive. We were pushing hard because there were other groups working in this area. Q. In 1995, when you proved the existence of the Bose-Einstein condensate, no one knew if it would have practical applications. Have any been found yet? A. We have some ideas, some possibilities. If you look at history, the laser took about 20 years to go from discovery to serious applications. So I don't think it's unreasonable that we're going to have to wait another 10 years. People are working on applications right now. Q. What kind of power has the Nobel Prize given you? A. Well, I have to be careful about what I say at faculty meetings. If I shoot my mouth off on a minor matter, it has real impact. That's not real power; it's a danger.I was hoping that the Nobel would give me the power to create this transformation model for education. It really hasn't, on the scale I expected. Last year, I used my sabbatical to write 29 grant proposals to change the way entire science departments teach, to develop materials that would allow people to do what we have without investing a lot of money. Except for one grant, they all got turned down. This makes me sometimes think I'm whistling in the dark. It's funny. If I were in Japan or India, I'd be a major figure in the public sphere. Here in the United States, I get more media calls about football scandals than educational reform. Maybe I'm not making my case to the right people. But I'm not giving up yet.

Subject: Puppets Help Evoke China's History From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 05:53:10 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/theater/reviews/01cath.html?ex=1288501200&en=6080e7f94dad292f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 Puppets Help Evoke China's History of Love and War By MARGO JEFFERSON For Marco Polo in the 13th century as for Ezra Pound in the 20th, China was 'Cathay,' a land of mythic wonders. For the American-born director and writer Ping Chong, to visit China and make theater in the West meant exploring myth and history, joining Asian and Western traditions. The result is 'Cathay: Three Tales of China,' playing at the New Victory Theater through Nov. 13. It is enchanting. 'Cathay' is a collaboration with China's Shaanxi Folk Art Theater. Mr. Chong is well known for his ingenious blend of film, theater and graphic art. Here, working with the director Liang Jun and a superb design team, he adds nine puppeteers and various puppets to the mix. Instead of a curtain onstage, we see a screen with the imposing look of marble. Dark wood divides it into panels. Once the lights go down, different panels will become settings for the action: traders, horses and camels trudging along the Silk Road; the jewel-toned opulence and cruel intrigue of a medieval court; World War II devastation; and the sleek efficiencies of a 21st-century hotel. But our first encounter is with two enormous animal statues, bronze-colored with winged heads and bright blue eyes. We hear their loud, grumbling voices. They've guarded the royal tomb for centuries; they're bored. What happened to the old days, they complain, 'the enchantment of splendors past' in the Tang dynasty, when they were important? The stage goes dark, and the 'The Emperor and the Lady' begins. It is a tale of love, greed and rebellion that ends in tragedy. Two circles light up on opposite sides of the panel. The emperor is inside one, wearing robes of gold and black brocade. His discreetly elegant prime minister is inside the other. Above them is a long rectangle of deep blue sky, a full blue moon and a branch with just four leaves. The panels serve as puppet stages. But they could be small movie screens, too, given the variety of line, shape and perspective. When the chamber of the emperor's beloved lady, Yang, appears, it is shaped like a fan. The colors are lustrous pinks, and blues, pale yellow and coral with a touch of strawberry. The second tale, 'Little Worm,' takes us into a world of pale grays. This is the countryside of ponds and reeds, frogs, water buffalo and huts. Families anxiously watch the sky for Japanese planes. Mr. Chong uses shadow puppets and digital animation up to the moment the Japanese attack. Then the animation becomes newsreel images. We see plunging airplanes, fire, soldiers turning guns and bayonets on unarmed people. It is shattering. The third tale 'New,' brings us to an ultramodern hotel in China. Each floor is named after a dynasty, and women who would once have schemed to win an emperor's favor scheme to win a promotion from the hotel manager. I won't reveal the ties that bind this tale to the other two. I will say that the result is charming, but also poignant. Mr. Chong is a theatrical magician with heart and an acute sense of history.

Subject: Colorado Got Its Government Back From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 05:48:08 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/03/opinion/03thur3.html November 3, 2005 How Colorado Got Its Government Back In 1992, to the unmitigated glee of antitax types everywhere, Colorado voters amended the State Constitution to impose the nation's strictest tax and spending limits. On Tuesday, they decided that government was worth paying for after all. By 52 percent to 48 percent, they voted to suspend the fiscal limits for the next five years and told the state to keep $3.7 billion that would have otherwise been refunded to taxpayers. The vote clearly has to do with the pain of a permanently underfinanced government. Middle-class and low-income residents were getting burned by ever deepening spending cuts in education, health care and transportation. Colorado has the ninth-highest per capita personal income in the nation, and only Washington, D.C., and Massachusetts have larger proportions of college graduates. Yet over the past decade or so, Colorado has dropped to near the bottom among the states in funds for basic public services. Last November, Republicans lost control of both chambers of the Legislature for the first time since 1960, and Gov. Bill Owens, a Republican, then shocked his base by supporting the suspension of the budget restrictions. Voters and legislators in nearly half the states are currently considering tax and spending limits, some of them quite severe, like Proposition 76 in California. Coloradans, who have the most experience with extreme budget constraints, have said 'time out' and telegraphed their displeasure to elected officials. Taxpayers and politicians, including those in Washington, should take heed. This vote was a thumbs down on 'starving the beast' - the Republican strategy of excessive tax cuts to force government to shrink.

Subject: Copper's Recent Declines From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 05:36:12 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/business/02place.html November 2, 2005 Copper's Recent Declines Stir Talk of Boom's End By HEATHER TIMMONS LONDON FOR much of the year, copper prices climbed steadily, driven by a housing boom in the United States and demand from the rapidly industrializing economies of India and China. Supply disruptions further fed the price gains. If that sounds similar to the story of crude oil futures this year, it should. Like oil, copper has attracted a wave of new money from hedge funds and other big investors seeking to ride the rally. But with the copper rally stuttering in recent weeks, and prices down as much as 3 percent from their October highs, some analysts and investors say they see signs that a bubble is about to burst. 'If one tries to gauge the commodity bubble over all, copper is the place to look,' said Henry To, the manager of a small hedge fund, Independence Partners, which has been diversifying from equities into commodities. Prices have been inflated by emotion, not fundamentals, just as they have in oil, he said. 'People are just scared, because they think we'll run out of copper in the warehouse.' Maqsood Ahmed, a senior metals analyst at Calyon Global Trading in London, predicted that copper prices 'will fall at least 25 percent by the end of the year.' Speculative buyers, he said, have pumped the copper market up beyond what the fundamentals justify. When copper prices start to fall, 'it could be a dramatic affair rather than a slow burn,' said Nick Moore, director of global commodity analysis at ABN Amro. He predicts that copper prices will be 40 percent lower in 2006 than they are today. On Tuesday, copper for December delivery rose 0.5 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $1.816 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months was unchanged at $3,912 a metric ton ($1.77 a pound). Copper is up 30 percent this year. Since 2003, the price has doubled. The stage was set for the rally in copper several years ago, when prices were low and producers stopped investing money in exploration and new production. Most producers never foresaw the upswing and have only recently begun to reinvest, so inventories have shrunk to their lowest in decades. On Oct. 20, copper prices breached $4,000 a metric ton for the first time in London, a surge fed by mining strikes and inventory worries. Since then, the rally has run out of steam. Inventory has started to creep up, and predictions for 2006 growth in China are slowing. Despite the market jitters, not everyone is convinced there is a bubble in copper. Some investors say that growth in China and India will continue for the long term, changing the fundamentals of supply and demand for metals and fuel. 'All the fundamentals would suggest that we are going to stay at these high prices,' said Fred Demler, executive vice president and manager of the metals division at Man Financial in New York. 'Inventories are low, the market is tight and China is a big buyer.' Investors and traders fled the copper market a decade ago, after regulators found that an influential trader at Sumitomo had engaged in unauthorized trades. The trader, Yasuo Hamanaka, known as Mr. 5 Percent for the share of the market he was believed to have controlled, wreaked havoc with prices and cost his bank billions of dollars. But traditional investors have returned, along with mainstream ones who are new to the markets. Pension and fund managers who once dealt primarily in equities or bonds have been moving into commodities as a way to profit from the growth in China. For example, the value of investments in the Goldman Sachs commodities index now stands at $45 billion, up threefold from 2002, according to Goldman Sachs. Some say that stocks listed in China are too risky because of concerns about corporate governance and secrecy, but the London and New York commodity exchanges are seen as safe spots to invest. That remains to be seen. Some copper traders and consumers have started to grumble that buyers may be stockpiling supplies without counting them as inventory, creating artificial shortages. The French cable manufacturer Nexans, a big copper consumer, has asked the London Metal Exchange to examine why prices for immediate delivery of copper are higher than futures prices (a market condition known as backwardation) even though there appears to be no shortage of short-term supplies. Backwardation could be a result of stockpiling supplies. While no one is predicting a repeat of the Sumitomo scandal, such activity may be adding to already high prices, analysts say. Adam Robinson, a spokesman for the London Metal Exchange, the largest market for copper, declined to comment on whether the exchange was investigating the matter.

Subject: Two Men Who Did the Right Thing From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 05:34:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/sports/baseball/02robinson.html November 2, 2005 Two Men Who Did the Right Thing By IRA BERKOW It was simple on its face, but as deeply layered as the gesture it memorialized. Yesterday, a statue was unveiled in front of a Brooklyn ball field, KeySpan Park, where the Mets' Class A Cyclones play. The statue was not of a general on a horse, or a poet in deep thought (with a pigeon on his head), but of two long-ago baseball players - Jackie Robinson and Pee Wee Reese of the Brooklyn Dodgers. On this uncommonly warm, sun-filled fall morning, a crowd of a few hundred had gathered outside the entrance to the park, in front of the statue, which was under a yellow covering. A band of five, wearing 'Brooklyn Sym-phony' sweatshirts, a nostalgic touch for the Dodger Sym-Phony, a group that once played in long-gone Ebbets Field, struck up several songs, including their classic 'Three Blind Mice,' which paid homage to umpires. The monument was representative of a time in history, beyond baseball, that in the late 1940's reached to the deepest, the most tragic, and yet the most elevating moments of a nation in racial crisis. Robinson, a black man, was breaking the long-held racial barrier in the major leagues. Reese, from Louisville, Ky., had inherited a teammate whom many people did not want to see play major league baseball. Both Reese and Robinson are dead. Reese died in 1999, Robinson in 1972, but their widows attended the ceremony yesterday. Rachel Robinson and Dottie Reese were there with their children, as well as Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg; two former Dodgers teammates of Reese and Robinson, Johnny Podres and Joe Pignatano; Jeff Wilpon, senior executive vice president of the Mets; and John Franco, the Brooklyn-born pitcher and a former Met. The statue captures a significant moment that is much remembered, although the precise details surrounding it are hazy. With Robinson receiving death threats and heckling and taunts from the crowd in a ballpark on the road, Pee Wee Reese walked over to him on the infield at a point either before or during a game and offered a quiet but significant gesture of friendship and comradeship. 'My father had done his own soul searching,' said Mark Reese, Pee Wee's son, 'and he knew that some fans, teammates, and yes, some family members didn't want him to play with a black man. 'But,' Mark Reese added, 'my father listened to his heart, and not to the chorus.' He added that his father admired Robinson as a ballplayer and as a man. When a petition was passed around in spring training by some Dodger players saying they would refuse to play with Robinson, Reese declined to sign it. And when the moment came for him to demonstrate his concern for a teammate, in the most subtle but unmistakable fashion, he took it. The statue shows the two players, with Reese's arm around Robinson's shoulder. There is no photograph of the moment. It is not totally certain if Reese, the shortstop, put his hand on Robinson's shoulder, or his arm around him, or just moved up close to him. Robinson played first base in his rookie season, 1947, and second base the next year. The statue's first design had Robinson wearing a fielder's mitt. But if the incident took place in 1947, Robinson had to be wearing a first baseman's glove, so the sculptor, Will Behrends, changed the baseball ware. The incident probably happened in Crosley Field in Cincinnati, although another Dodgers teammate, Duke Snider, said he remembered it occurring in Boston. 'I remember Jackie talking about Pee Wee's gesture the day it happened,' Rachel Robinson said yesterday. 'It came as such a relief to him, that a teammate and the captain of the team would go out of his way in such a public fashion to express friendship.' In the biography 'Jackie Robinson' by Arnold Rampersad, Robinson himself was quoted as recalling the incident this way: 'Pee Wee kind of sensed the sort of helpless, dead feeling in me and came over and stood beside me for a while. He didn't say a word, but he looked over at the chaps who were yelling at me and just stared. He was standing by me, I could tell you that.' The hecklers ceased their attack. 'I will never forget it,' Robinson said. 'Pee Wee thought nothing of it,' Dottie Reese said. 'For him, it was a simple gesture of friendship. He had no idea that it would become so significant. He would be absolutely amazed.' She added, 'I just wish he were here today.' Indeed, Reese's gesture did not come from a save-the-world mentality. It was simply the act of a decent man doing the decent thing. In 1997, Reese told The New York Times: 'Something in my gut reacted at the moment. Something about what? The unfairness of it? The injustice of it? I don't know.' Bloomberg said that Robinson, like Rosa Parks, who died Oct. 24, was a civil rights hero. 'Jackie was a role model' who, said Bloomberg, went about his life and his athletic pursuits with 'style, grace and dignity,' and 'electrified a nation.' Marty Markowitz, the Brooklyn borough president, said, 'When Pee Wee Reese threw his arm around Jackie Robinson's shoulder in this legendary gesture of support and friendship, they showed America and the world that racial discrimination is unacceptable and un-American.' Several of the speakers said they hoped the monument and the memory of that moment would be an inspiration to young people. It was mentioned during yesterday's ceremony that the memorial came about because Stan Isaacs, a columnist for Newsday, had suggested on a radio show shortly after Reese's death the creation of a statue commemorating the moment. Jack Newfield wrote about the idea in The New York Post, and Rudolph W. Giuliani, the mayor at the time, picked up the momentum. Numerous donors followed suit. With the speeches ended, the yellow covering was taken off and the statue revealed. There was applause, and some gasps at the startling likenesses of the ballplayers. Then the Brooklyn Sym-phony broke into 'Take Me Out to the Ball Game.'

Subject: Forced Equality From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 03:33:16 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: This happened to Johnny5 and his sisters when de segregation was FORCED on children instead of slow gradual change - how cruel. Like children don't have enough to worry about - there are better less non violent ways than this extreme sillyness. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/local/story/354239p-302014c.html Ed Dept. eyes charge kids bullied, 1 beaten Students victims of race hate, mom sez BY KATHLEEN LUCADAMO DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER Lisa Brown moved from Oklahoma so that her two sons, Sloan (l.) and J.T. and her daughter Robbie could experience diversity in Brooklyn. City education officials are investigating the claims of a pair of boys from Oklahoma who moved to Brooklyn to experience diversity, and instead say they got schooled in racism and violence. Mom Lisa Brown, 33, told the Daily News she relocated her family from their small Oklahoma town so her husband, a Brooklyn native and social worker, could more easily find work and her sons could experience different people and ways of life. Brown enrolled her sons, Sloan, 12, and J.T., 13, at Ebbets Field Middle School in Crown Heights. But when the boys, who are white, showed up, their mom said, they got a chilling indication of what was to come. 'Oh my gosh, we are going to have fun this year,' a security guard muttered, according to Brown. Things quickly got worse. Sloan was beaten mercilessly, called 'cracker' and 'white boy,' and chased into traffic by his new classmates, his family said. The abuse got so bad that Sloan routinely bolted out of the building to find his brother and run to a nearby subway, dodging verbal and physical attacks, he said. 'It almost makes me cry,' Sloan said. 'I'm scared to go back.' The brothers skipped school all last week while their parents tried to sort out the mess. 'Do I have to send the National Guard in to get my children an education?' asked the distraught mom. When Brown tried to alert Principal Marge Baker to the abuse, 'the principal refused to take the calls,' she charged. Brown filed several police reports at the 71st Precinct stationhouse about the alleged abuse, but said she was ignored. Police sources said precinct cops did take the incident seriously but believe school staff are in a better position to deal with what appeared to be a series of schoolyard fights and bullying. The boys' stepfather, Ken Brown, requested a transfer for the boys on Sept. 28, but Education Department officials noted he can't seek the change because he is not a custodial parent. Eventually, the fedup mom went to nearby Elijah Stroud Middle School to transfer her sons there, but said the principal told her: 'They'll have the same problem here.' Education officials promised to help the Browns - after being contacted by The News. 'The principal was not sufficiently attentive to this situation,' the Education Department said in a statement. 'Upon learning of the situation, the region is taking immediate action to arrange a transfer for these children. 'We will fully investigate what happened, including whether racist statements, which are not tolerated, were made and take appropriate action.' Brown said the Education Department called her several times over the weekend, after The News made queries, pledging to get the kids into Elijah Stroud and chastising her for calling in the press. Despite the principal's warning, Lisa agreed to send her boys to Elijah Stroud tomorrow. 'I'll make sure my kids are safe because it is the school system's job to make sure they are,' she said. For Sloan and J.T., escaping Ebbets Field Middle School will be a relief. The school opened in September as one of the city's many new small schools, with plans to 'become the crown jewel' of Crown Heights, according to the Education Department Web site. The Browns said their ethnically and racially diverse neighbors in Prospect Heights have embraced them, and they thought New York was 'the greatest place on Earth' - until they started battling the school system. 'I was excited to expose my children to a complete variety of people,' Lisa Brown said. 'I thought it would be an advantage. I always told my children that children could be cruel - but not to this extent.' With Alison Gendar

Subject: Brazil Chindia for Pete From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 03:26:29 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Pete if you look at the best ETF's YTD - you will find china/asia/india/brazil is getting a lot of investment - the article I posted a few links down about money flow backs this up for private venture capital too - now a history lesson: In 1840's we took a lot of investment money from the british to build out our Country - then we defaulted. FREE MONEY! Today we are sending a lot of western money to the east - perhaps they will repeat history and repay us our due? I hear cronyism and malinvestment is worse there than here! http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:hSrAm_MS_eMJ:www.coinbooks.org/club_nbs_esylum_v06n23.html Nichols silver daniel bell price treasury&hl=en&ie=UTF-8 I haven't seen anyone reply to this, so I thought I'd comment on Joel Orosz' note from the 12/23/01 E-Sylum in which he refers to Scrooge's poor opinion of the soundness of American financial obligations with these quotes from Chapter One of 'The House of Morgan' by Ron Chernow: 'When Baltimore merchant George Peabody sailed for London in 1835, the world was in the throes of a debt crises. The defaulting governments weren't obscure Balkan nations or South American republics but American states. The United States had succumbed to a craze for building railroads, canals, and turnpikes, all backed by state credit. Now Maryland legislators, with the bravado of the ruined, threatened to join other states in skipping interest payments on their bonds, which were largely marketed in London.' Later, Chernow states: 'During the severe depression of the early 1840s - a decade dubbed the Hungry Forties - state debt plunged to fifty cents on the dollar. The worst came when five American states - Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Indiana, Arkansas, and Michigan - and the Florida territory defaulted on their interest payments.' 'British investors cursed America as a land of cheats, rascals, and ingrates. State defaults also tainted federal credit, and when Washington sent Treasury agents to Europe in 1842, James de Rothschild thundered, 'Tell them you have seen the man who is at the head of the finances of Europe, and that he has told you that they cannot borrow a dollar. Not a dollar.' Clergyman Sydney Smith sneered at the American 'mob' and said that whenever he met a Pennsylvanian at a London dinner, he felt 'a disposition to seize and divide him. . . . How such a man can set himself down at an English table without feeling that he owes two or three pounds to every man in the company, I am at a loss to conceive, he has no more right to eat with honest men than a leper has to eat with clean men.' Even Charles Dickens couldn't resist a jab, portraying a nightmare in which Scrooge's solid British assets are transformed into 'a mere United States' security.'' As you can see, Dickens wasn't the only person at the time with a poor opinion of US securities, and not without good reason! Greedy english lost thier butts - that damn rothschild that enslaved our forefathers before they fled to the USA got his financial ass handed to him! We used his own greed against him to finance our expansion - GO USA! We beat that greedy SOB at his own game! Hehe - are the tables about to turn Pete?

Subject: Rumsfeld and Pete buying Healthcare From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 02:26:10 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/newsmakers/fortune_rumsfeld/ Rumsfeld's growing stake in Tamiflu Defense Secretary, ex-chairman of flu treatment rights holder, sees portfolio value growing. October 31, 2005: 10:55 AM EST By Nelson D. Schwartz, Fortune senior writer Save on All Your Calls with Vonage When looking for local regional and long distance calling, use Vonage to make... www.vonage.com MyCashNow - $100 - $1,500 Overnight Payday Loan Cash goes in your account overnight. Very low fees. Fast decisions.... www.mycashnow.com $160,000 Mortgage for $633/mo Refinance rates are at record lows. Compare rates ??? free service. www.lowermybills.com Compare Mortgage Offers Up to four free mortgage, refinance or home equity offers - one easy form. www.nextag.com NEW YORK (Fortune) - The prospect of a bird flu outbreak may be panicking people around the globe, but it's proving to be very good news for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other politically connected investors in Gilead Sciences, the California biotech company that owns the rights to Tamiflu, the influenza remedy that's now the most-sought after drug in the world. Rumsfeld served as Gilead (Research)'s chairman from 1997 until he joined the Bush administration in 2001, and he still holds a Gilead stake valued at between $5 million and $25 million, according to federal financial disclosures filed by Rumsfeld. The forms don't reveal the exact number of shares Rumsfeld owns, but in the past six months fears of a pandemic and the ensuing scramble for Tamiflu have sent Gilead's stock from $35 to $47. That's made the Pentagon chief, already one of the wealthiest members of the Bush cabinet, at least $1 million richer. Rumsfeld isn't the only political heavyweight benefiting from demand for Tamiflu, which is manufactured and marketed by Swiss pharma giant Roche. (Gilead receives a royalty from Roche equaling about 10% of sales.) Former Secretary of State George Shultz, who is on Gilead's board, has sold more than $7 million worth of Gilead since the beginning of 2005. Another board member is the wife of former California Gov. Pete Wilson. 'I don't know of any biotech company that's so politically well-connected,' says analyst Andrew McDonald of Think Equity Partners in San Francisco. What's more, the federal government is emerging as one of the world's biggest customers for Tamiflu. In July, the Pentagon ordered $58 million worth of the treatment for U.S. troops around the world, and Congress is considering a multi-billion dollar purchase. Roche expects 2005 sales for Tamiflu to be about $1 billion, compared with $258 million in 2004. Rumsfeld recused himself from any decisions involving Gilead when he left Gilead and became Secretary of Defense in early 2001. And late last month, notes a senior Pentagon official, Rumsfeld went even further and had the Pentagon's general counsel issue additional instructions outlining what he could and could not be involved in if there were an avian flu pandemic and the Pentagon had to respond. As the flu issue heated up early this year, according to the Pentagon official, Rumsfeld considered unloading his entire Gilead stake and sought the advice of the Department of Justice, the SEC and the federal Office of Government Ethics. Those agencies didn't offer an opinion so Rumsfeld consulted a private securities lawyer, who advised him that it was safer to hold on to the stock and be quite public about his recusal rather than sell and run the risk of being accused of trading on insider information, something Rumsfeld doesn't believe he possesses. So he's keeping his shares for the time being.

Subject: Lesbians should be allowed to fight for America From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 02:19:20 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I watched this last weekend. See I told you a few posts down I read NY times and watch CSPAN since I dont have a meaningful relationship with my old girlfriend that went to HARVARD - hehe. She talks about some of this silly male/female sexuality memes society has. Sexual POWER can reach to the SAME sex just as it can to the OPPOSITE sex. To continue to try and DEGRADE men for things I have seen numerous women do is not being honest. http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/cspan.csp?command=dprogram&record=537001448 Speech Secret Service: Untold Stories of Lesbians in the Military Women and Children First Bookstore Chicago, Illinois (United States) ID: 187397 - 06/16/2005 - 0:54 - $29.95 Gershick, Zsa Zsa, Correspondent Zsa Zsa Gershick talked about her book Secret Service: Untold Stories of Lesbians in the Military, published by Alyson Books. Zsa Zsa Gershick is a journalist who served as a reservist in the U.S. Army from 1978 to 1982. Her book discusses the U.S. military and the discharge of gay and lesbian troops. The author describes the military's 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' policy concerning sexuality as misleading and details military life through the eyes of lesbian service members. She read excerpts from the book and responded to questions from members of the audience.

Subject: Death Toll in Asian Quake From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 15:23:15 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Death Toll in Asian Quake Jumps, to 73,276. Isn't that figure incredible to believe? In the grand scheme of death related disasters the Hurricane in Louisiana killed how many? The Iraqi war has seen how many dead to date? Then comes this earthquake in a part of the world that we know so little about with an astonishing figure. Wasn't it Karl Marx who made the statement, 'A few die and it is a tragedy. Few thousand die and it is a statistic.'

Subject: Re: Death Toll in Asian Quake From: Jennifer To: Mik Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 15:33:42 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Such sadness.

Subject: Theory of Everything From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 12:41:32 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/science/01prof.html?ex=1288501200&en=ed5ab9e60453cebb&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 On Gravity, Oreos and a Theory of Everything By DENNIS OVERBYE The portal to the fifth dimension, sadly, is closed. There used to be an ice cream parlor in the student center at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. And it was there, in the summer of 1998, that Lisa Randall, now a professor of physics at Harvard and a bit of a chocoholic, and Raman Sundrum, a professor at Johns Hopkins, took an imaginary trip right out of this earthly plane into a science fiction realm of parallel universes, warped space and otherworldly laws of physics. They came back with a possible answer to a question that has tormented scientists for decades, namely why gravity is so weak compared with the other forces of nature: in effect, we are borrowing it from another universe. In so doing, Dr. Randall and Dr. Sundrum helped foment a revolution in the way scientists think about string theory - the vaunted 'theory of everything' - raising a glimmer of hope that coming experiments may actually test some of its ineffable sounding concepts. Their work undermined well-worn concepts like the idea that we can even know how many dimensions of space we live in, or the reality of gravity, space and time. The work has also made a star and an icon of Dr. Randall. The attention has been increased by the recent publication to laudatory reviews of her new book, 'Warped Passages, Unraveling the Mysteries of the Universe's Hidden Dimensions,' A debate broke out on the physics blog Cosmic Variance a few weeks ago about whether it was appropriate, as a commentator on NPR had said, to say she looked like Jodi Foster. 'How do we know we live in a four-dimensional universe?' she asked a crowd who filled the Hayden Planetarium on a stormy night last week. 'You think gravity is what you see. We're always just looking at the tail of things.' Although it is the unanswerable questions that most appeal to her now, it was the answerable ones that drew her to science, especially math, as a child, the middle of three daughters of a salesman for an engineering firm, and a teacher, in Fresh Meadows, Queens. 'I really liked the fact that it had definite answers,' Dr. Randall said. At Stuyvesant High School, where she was in the same class as Brian Greene, the future Columbia string theorist and best-selling author, she was the first girl to serve as captain of the school's math team, and she won the famous Westinghouse Science Talent Search competition with a project about complex numbers. She went on to Harvard where she stayed until 1987 when she emerged with a Ph.D. in physics. Those were heady times in physics. Fired by the dream of a unified theory of everything, theorists flocked to string theory, which envisioned the fundamental elements of nature as tiny wriggling strings. Dr. Randall, however, resisted this siren call, at least for a while. For one thing, physicists thought it would take a particle accelerator 10 million billion times as powerful as anything on earth to produce an actual string and test the theory. String theory also stubbornly requires space-time to have 10 dimensions, not the 4 (3 of space and 1 of time) that we experience. Preferring to stay closer to testable reality, Dr. Randall was drawn to a bottom-up approach to theoretical physics, trying to build models that explain observed phenomena and hoping to discover principles with wider application. But Dr. Randall and string theory had their own kismet. In the mid-90's, theorists discovered that the theory was even richer than its founders had thought, describing not just strings but so-called branes, as in membranes, of all dimensions. Our own universe could be such a brane, an island of three dimensions floating in a sea of higher dimension, like a bubble in the sea. But there could be membranes with five, six, seven or more dimensions coexisting and mingling like weird cosmic soap bubbles in what theorists sometimes call the multiverse. 'The stuff we're really famous for was really lucky in a way,' Dr. Randall said. In the summer of 1998, after postdoctoral stints at Harvard and the University of California, Berkeley, she was a tenured M.I.T. professor ready to move to Princeton. She wondered then whether parallel universes could help solve a vexing problem with a favorite theories of particle physicists. That theory, known as supersymmetry, was invented in turn to solve another problem - the enormous gulf known as the hierarchy problem between gravity and the other forces. Naïve calculations from first principles suggest, Dr. Randall said, that gravity should be 10 million billion times as strong as it is. You might find it hard to imagine gravity as a weak force, but consider, says Dr. Randall, that a small magnet can hold up a paper clip, even though the entire earth is pulling down on it. But there was a hitch with the way the theory worked out in our universe. It predicted reactions that are not observed. Dr. Randall wondered if the missing reactions could be explained by positing that some aspects of the theory were quarantined in a separate universe. She called up Dr. Sundrum, who was then a fellow at Boston University and happy to collaborate, having worked with her before. A lot of physics is taste, he explained, discerning, for example, what is an important and a potentially soluble problem. Dr. Randall's biggest strength, he said, is a kind of 'unworldly' instinct. 'She has a great nose,' Dr. Sundrum said. 'It's a mystery to those of us - hard to understand, almost to the point of amusement - how she does it without any clear sign of what led her to that path,' he continued. 'She gives no sign of why she thinks what she thinks.' They began by drawing pictures and making crude estimates over ice cream and coffee in that ice cream parlor, which is now a taqueria. What they drew pictures of was a kind of Oreo cookie multiverse, an architecture similar to one first discovered as a solution of the string equations by Edward Witten of the Institute for Advanced Study and Petr Horava, now at Berkeley. Dr. Randall and Dr. Sundrum's model consisted of a pair of universes, four-dimensional branes, thinly separated by a five-dimensional space poetically called the bulk. When they solved the equations for this setup, they discovered that the space between the branes would be warped. Objects, for example, would appear to grow larger or smaller and get less massive or more massive as they moved back and forth between the branes. Such a situation, they realized to their surprise, could provide a natural explanation for the hierarchy problem without invoking supersymmetry. Suppose, they said, that gravity is actually inherently as strong as the other forces, but because of the warping gravity is much much stronger on one of the branes than on the other one, where we happen to live. So we experience gravity as extremely weak. 'You can be only a modest distance away from the gravity brane,' Dr. Randall said, 'and gravity will be incredibly weak.' A result was a natural explanation for why atomic forces outgun gravity by 10 million billion to 1. Could this miracle be true? Crazy as it sounded, they soon discovered an even more bizarre possibility. The fifth dimension could actually be infinite and we would not have noticed it. In this case, there would be only one brane, ours, containing both gravity as we know it and the rest of nature. But it would warp space in the same way as in the first model, trapping gravity nearby so that we would experience space-time as four-dimensional. This new single brane model did not solve the weak gravity problem, Dr. Randall admitted, but it was a revelation, that an infinite ocean of space could be sitting next to us undetected. 'So when we wrote this paper, what we were concentrating on was this amazing fact that really had been overlooked for 100 years - well, years, whatever - that you can have this infinite extra dimension,' she said. 'I mean it was quite wild.' This was not the first time that theorists had tinkered with the extra dimensions of string theory, dimensions that had been presumed to be coiled out of sight of experiment, into tight loops so small that not even an electron could enter. In 1998, three theorists - Nima Arkani-Hamed of Harvard, Gia Divali of New York University and Savas Dimopoulos of Stanford (a group known in physics as A.D.D.) - had surprised everybody by suggesting that if one or two of the curled-up extra dimensions had sizes as big as a tenth of millimeter or so (gigantic on particle physics scales), gravity would be similarly diluted and weakened. When Dr. Randall and Dr. Sundrum published their first paper, describing the two-brane scheme, in 1999, she said that many physicists did not recognize it as a new idea and not just an elaboration on the large extra dimensions of the A.D.D. group. In fact, she said, the extra dimensions don't have to be very large in the two-brane theory, less than a millionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of an inch. When they published their second paper, about the infinite dimension, she said, even some of their best friends, reserved judgment. But by the time a long-planned workshop on strings and particle physics at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics in Santa Barbara rolled around that fall, string theorists were excited about the Randall-Sundrum work and the earlier A.D.D. proposal. The reason was simple: If they were very lucky and one of these versions of string theory was the one that nature had adopted, it could actually be tested in the Large Hadron Collider, the giant particle accelerator due to go into operation at CERN near Geneva in 2007. Colliding beams of protons with a combined energy of 14 trillion electron volts, the collider could produce particles like gravitons going off into the fifth dimension like billiard balls hopping off the table, black holes or even the illusive strings themselves. 'If this is the way gravity works in high-energy physics, we'll know about it,' Dr. Randall said. Although physicists agree that these theories are a long shot, the new work has captured their imaginations and encouraged them to take a fresh look at the possibilities for the universe and their new accelerator. Dr. Greene of Columbia said, 'Sometimes it takes an outsider to come into a field and see what is being missed, or taken for granted.' At first the idea that extra dimensions could be bigger than any of us had thought was shocking, he said. Andrew Strominger, a Harvard string theorist, said: 'Before A.D.D. we believed there was no hope of finding evidence for string theory at the Large Hadron Collider, an assumption that was wrong. It shows how unimaginative and narrow-minded we are. I see that as cause for optimism. Science and nature are full of surprises, we never see what's going to happen next.' It was shortly before a conference that Dr. Randall had organized during the Kavli workshop that she had her own experience with gravity: she fell while rock climbing in Yosemite, breaking several bones. Only a day before, she said, she had completed a climb of Half Dome and was feeling cocky. Another symptom of gravity's weakness is that a rope is sufficient to hold a human body up against earth's pull, but Dr. Randall was still on the first leg of her climb and hadn't yet attached it to the rock.. She woke up in a helicopter. For a long time, she said, new parts kept hurting as old ones healed. 'I was very much not myself. I didn't even like chocolate and coffee.' Since she was the conference organizer, her ordeal was more public than she would have liked. 'In some ways you sort of want to do this in private,' Dr. Randall said. 'On the other hand people were really nice.' After two years at Princeton, Dr. Randall returned to M.I.T. in 2000, but then a year later moved to Harvard, by then a powerhouse in string theory. She was the third woman to get tenure in physics there. Dr. Randall, 43 and single, prefers not to talk about 'the women in science thing,' as she calls it. That subject that gained notoriety earlier this year when Harvard's President Larry Summers famously ventured that a relative lack of women in the upper ranks of science might reflect innate deficiencies, but Dr. Randall said it had been beaten to death. Asked if she would rather be a woman in science than talk about women in science, Dr. Randall said, 'I'd rather be a scientist.' She did say that part of the reason she had written her book was to demonstrate that that there were women out there doing this kind of science. 'I did feel extra pressure to write a good book,' she said, adding that the response in reviews and emails from readers had been much greater than she had expected. She was particularly pleased that some of her readers were attentive and studious enough to catch on to various puns and games she had inserted in the book, like the frequent references to Alice in Wonderland, which, she said, is a pun on 'one-d-land.' Dr. Randall is intrigued by that fact that her results, as well as other results from string theory seem to paint a picture of the universe in which theories with different numbers of dimensions in them all give the same physics? She and Andreas Karch of the University of Washington have found, for example, that the fifth dimension could be so warped that the number of dimensions you see would depend on where you were. Our own universe might just be a three-dimensional 'sinkhole,' she says. 'It's not completely obvious what gravity is, fundamentally, or what dimensions are, fundamentally,' she said over lunch. 'One of these days we'll understand better what we mean, what is the fundamental thing that's given us space in the first place and dimensions of space in particular.' She held out less hope for time, saying, 'I just don't understand it. 'Space we can make progress with.' Is time an illusion? 'I wish time were an illusion,' she said as she carved up the last of her chocolate bread pudding, 'but unfortunately it seems all too real.'

Subject: What's a Modern Girl to Do? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 12:24:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/magazine/30feminism.html?ex=1288324800&en=19fa113abf29e967&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 30, 2005 What's a Modern Girl to Do? By MAUREEN DOWD When I entered college in 1969, women were bursting out of theirs 50's chrysalis, shedding girdles, padded bras and conventions. The Jazz Age spirit flared in the Age of Aquarius. Women were once again imitating men and acting all independent: smoking, drinking, wanting to earn money and thinking they had the right to be sexual, this time protected by the pill. I didn't fit in with the brazen new world of hard-charging feminists. I was more of a fun-loving (if chaste) type who would decades later come to life in Sarah Jessica Parker's Carrie Bradshaw. I hated the grubby, unisex jeans and no-makeup look and drugs that zoned you out, and I couldn't understand the appeal of dances that didn't involve touching your partner. In the universe of Eros, I longed for style and wit. I loved the Art Deco glamour of 30's movies. I wanted to dance the Continental like Fred and Ginger in white hotel suites; drink martinis like Myrna Loy and William Powell; live the life of a screwball heroine like Katharine Hepburn, wearing a gold lamé gown cut on the bias, cavorting with Cary Grant, strolling along Fifth Avenue with my pet leopard. My mom would just shake her head and tell me that my idea of the 30's was wildly romanticized. 'We were poor,' she'd say. 'We didn't dance around in white hotel suites.' I took the idealism and passion of the 60's for granted, simply assuming we were sailing toward perfect equality with men, a utopian world at home and at work. I didn't listen to her when she cautioned me about the chimera of equality. On my 31st birthday, she sent me a bankbook with a modest nest egg she had saved for me. 'I always felt that the girls in a family should get a little more than the boys even though all are equally loved,' she wrote in a letter. 'They need a little cushion to fall back on. Women can stand on the Empire State Building and scream to the heavens that they are equal to men and liberated, but until they have the same anatomy, it's a lie. It's more of a man's world today than ever. Men can eat their cake in unlimited bakeries.' I thought she was just being Old World, like my favorite jade, Dorothy Parker, when she wrote: By the time you swear you're his, Shivering and sighing, And he vows his passion is Infinite, undying - Lady, make a note of this: One of you is lying. I thought the struggle for egalitarianism was a cinch, so I could leave it to my earnest sisters in black turtlenecks and Birkenstocks. I figured there was plenty of time for me to get serious later, that America would always be full of passionate and full-throated debate about the big stuff - social issues, sexual equality, civil rights. Little did I realize that the feminist revolution would have the unexpected consequence of intensifying the confusion between the sexes, leaving women in a tangle of dependence and independence as they entered the 21st century. Maybe we should have known that the story of women's progress would be more of a zigzag than a superhighway, that the triumph of feminism would last a nanosecond while the backlash lasted 40 years. Despite the best efforts of philosophers, politicians, historians, novelists, screenwriters, linguists, therapists, anthropologists and facilitators, men and women are still in a muddle in the boardroom, the bedroom and the Situation Room. Courtship My mom gave me three essential books on the subject of men. The first, when I was 13, was 'On Becoming a Woman.' The second, when I was 21, was '365 Ways to Cook Hamburger.' The third, when I was 25, was 'How to Catch and Hold a Man,' by Yvonne Antelle. ('Keep thinking of yourself as a soft, mysterious cat.. . .Men are fascinated by bright, shiny objects, by lots of curls, lots of hair on the head . . . by bows, ribbons, ruffles and bright colors.. . .Sarcasm is dangerous. Avoid it altogether.') Because I received 'How to Catch and Hold a Man' at a time when we were entering the Age of Equality, I put it aside as an anachronism. After all, sometime in the 1960's flirting went out of fashion, as did ironing boards, makeup and the idea that men needed to be 'trapped' or 'landed.' The way to approach men, we reasoned, was forthrightly and without games, artifice or frills. Unfortunately, history has shown this to be a misguided notion. I knew it even before the 1995 publication of 'The Rules,' a dating bible that encouraged women to return to prefeminist mind games by playing hard to get. ('Don't stay on the phone for more than 10 minutes.. . .Even if you are the head of your own company. . .when you're with a man you like, be quiet and mysterious, act ladylike, cross your legs and smile.. . .Wear black sheer pantyhose and hike up your skirt to entice the opposite sex!') I knew this before fashion magazines became crowded with crinolines, bows, ruffles, leopard-skin scarves, 50's party dresses and other sartorial equivalents of flirting and with articles like 'The Return of Hard to Get.' ('I think it behooves us to stop offering each other these pearls of feminism, to stop saying, 'So, why don't you call him?'' a writer lectured in Mademoiselle. 'Some men must have the thrill of the chase.') I knew things were changing because a succession of my single girlfriends had called, sounding sheepish, to ask if they could borrow my out-of-print copy of 'How to Catch and Hold a Man.' Decades after the feminist movement promised equality with men, it was becoming increasingly apparent that many women would have to brush up on the venerable tricks of the trade: an absurdly charming little laugh, a pert toss of the head, an air of saucy triumph, dewy eyes and a full knowledge of music, drawing, elegant note writing and geography. It would once more be considered captivating to lie on a chaise longue, pass a lacy handkerchief across the eyelids and complain of a case of springtime giddiness. Today, women have gone back to hunting their quarry - in person and in cyberspace - with elaborate schemes designed to allow the deluded creatures to think they are the hunters. 'Men like hunting, and we shouldn't deprive them of their chance to do their hunting and mating rituals,' my 26-year-old friend Julie Bosman, a New York Times reporter, says. 'As my mom says, Men don't like to be chased.' Or as the Marvelettes sang, 'The hunter gets captured by the game.' These days the key to staying cool in the courtship rituals is B. & I., girls say - Busy and Important. 'As much as you're waiting for that little envelope to appear on your screen,' says Carrie Foster, a 29-year-old publicist in Washington, 'you happen to have a lot of stuff to do anyway.' If a guy rejects you or turns out to be the essence of evil, you can ratchet up from B. & I. to C.B.B., Can't Be Bothered. In the T.M.I. - Too Much Information - digital age, there can be infinite technological foreplay. Helen Fisher, a Rutgers anthropologist, concurs with Julie: 'What our grandmothers told us about playing hard to get is true. The whole point of the game is to impress and capture. It's not about honesty. Many men and women, when they're playing the courtship game, deceive so they can win. Novelty, excitement and danger drive up dopamine in the brain. And both sexes brag.' Women might dye their hair, apply makeup and spend hours finding a hip-slimming dress, she said, while men may drive a nice car or wear a fancy suit that makes them seem richer than they are. In this retro world, a woman must play hard to get but stay soft as a kitten. And avoid sarcasm. Altogether. Money In those faraway, long-ago days of feminism, there was talk about equal pay for equal work. Now there's talk about 'girl money.' A friend of mine in her 30's says it is a term she hears bandied about the New York dating scene. She also notes a shift in the type of gifts given at wedding showers around town, a reversion to 50's-style offerings: soup ladles and those frilly little aprons from Anthropologie and vintage stores are being unwrapped along with see-through nighties and push-up bras. 'What I find most disturbing about the 1950's-ification and retrogression of women's lives is that it has seeped into the corporate and social culture, where it can do real damage,' she complains. 'Otherwise intelligent men, who know women still earn less than men as a rule, say things like: 'I'll get the check. You only have girl money.'' Throughout the long, dark ages of undisputed patriarchy, women connived to trade beauty and sex for affluence and status. In the first flush of feminism, women offered to pay half the check with 'woman money' as a way to show that these crass calculations - that a woman's worth in society was determined by her looks, that she was an ornament up for sale to the highest bidder - no longer applied. Now dating etiquette has reverted. Young women no longer care about using the check to assert their equality. They care about using it to assess their sexuality. Going Dutch is an archaic feminist relic. Young women talk about it with disbelief and disdain. 'It's a scuzzy 70's thing, like platform shoes on men,' one told me. 'Feminists in the 70's went overboard,' Anne Schroeder, a 26-year-old magazine editor in Washington, agrees. 'Paying is like opening a car door. It's nice. I appreciate it. But he doesn't have to.' Unless he wants another date. Women in their 20's think old-school feminists looked for equality in all the wrong places, that instead of fighting battles about whether women should pay for dinner or wear padded bras they should have focused only on big economic issues. After Googling and Bikramming to get ready for a first dinner date, a modern girl will end the evening with the Offering, an insincere bid to help pay the check. 'They make like they are heading into their bag after a meal, but it is a dodge,' Marc Santora, a 30-year-old Metro reporter for The Times, says. 'They know you will stop them before a credit card can be drawn. If you don't, they hold it against you.' One of my girlfriends, a TV producer in New York, told me much the same thing: 'If you offer, and they accept, then it's over.' Jurassic feminists shudder at the retro implication of a quid profiterole. But it doesn't matter if the woman is making as much money as the man, or more, she expects him to pay, both to prove her desirability and as a way of signaling romance - something that's more confusing in a dating culture rife with casual hookups and group activities. (Once beyond the initial testing phase and settled in a relationship, of course, she can pony up more.) 'There are plenty of ways for me to find out if he's going to see me as an equal without disturbing the dating ritual,' one young woman says. 'Disturbing the dating ritual leads to chaos. Everybody knows that.' When I asked a young man at my gym how he and his lawyer girlfriend were going to divide the costs on a California vacation, he looked askance. 'She never offers,' he replied. 'And I like paying for her.' It is, as one guy said, 'one of the few remaining ways we can demonstrate our manhood.' Power Dynamics At a party for the Broadway opening of 'Sweet Smell of Success,' a top New York producer gave me a lecture on the price of female success that was anything but sweet. He confessed that he had wanted to ask me out on a date when he was between marriages but nixed the idea because my job as a Times columnist made me too intimidating. Men, he explained, prefer women who seem malleable and awed. He predicted that I would never find a mate because if there's one thing men fear, it's a woman who uses her critical faculties. Will she be critical of absolutely everything, even his manhood? He had hit on a primal fear of single successful women: that the aroma of male power is an aphrodisiac for women, but the perfume of female power is a turnoff for men. It took women a few decades to realize that everything they were doing to advance themselves in the boardroom could be sabotaging their chances in the bedroom, that evolution was lagging behind equality. A few years ago at a White House correspondents' dinner, I met a very beautiful and successful actress. Within minutes, she blurted out: 'I can't believe I'm 46 and not married. Men only want to marry their personal assistants or P.R. women.' I'd been noticing a trend along these lines, as famous and powerful men took up with young women whose job it was was to care for them and nurture them in some way: their secretaries, assistants, nannies, caterers, flight attendants, researchers and fact-checkers. John Schwartz of The New York Times made the trend official in 2004 when he reported: 'Men would rather marry their secretaries than their bosses, and evolution may be to blame.' A study by psychology researchers at the University of Michigan, using college undergraduates, suggested that men going for long-term relationships would rather marry women in subordinate jobs than women who are supervisors. Men think that women with important jobs are more likely to cheat on them. There it is, right in the DNA: women get penalized by insecure men for being too independent. 'The hypothesis,' Dr. Stephanie Brown, the lead author of the study, theorized, 'is that there are evolutionary pressures on males to take steps to minimize the risk of raising offspring that are not their own.' Women, by contrast, did not show a marked difference between their attraction to men who might work above them and their attraction to men who might work below them. So was the feminist movement some sort of cruel hoax? Do women get less desirable as they get more successful? After I first wrote on this subject, a Times reader named Ray Lewis e-mailed me. While we had assumed that making ourselves more professionally accomplished would make us more fascinating, it turned out, as Lewis put it, that smart women were 'draining at times.' Or as Bill Maher more crudely but usefully summed it up to Craig Ferguson on the 'Late Late Show' on CBS: 'Women get in relationships because they want somebody to talk to. Men want women to shut up.' Women moving up still strive to marry up. Men moving up still tend to marry down. The two sexes' going in opposite directions has led to an epidemic of professional women missing out on husbands and kids. Sylvia Ann Hewlett, an economist and the author of 'Creating a Life: Professional Women and the Quest for Children,' a book published in 2002, conducted a survey and found that 55 percent of 35-year-old career women were childless. And among corporate executives who earn $100,000 or more, she said, 49 percent of the women did not have children, compared with only 19 percent of the men. Hewlett quantified, yet again, that men have an unfair advantage. 'Nowadays,' she said, 'the rule of thumb seems to be that the more successful the woman, the less likely it is she will find a husband or bear a child. For men, the reverse is true.' A 2005 report by researchers at four British universities indicated that a high I.Q. hampers a woman's chance to marry, while it is a plus for men. The prospect for marriage increased by 35 percent for guys for each 16-point increase in I.Q.; for women, there is a 40 percent drop for each 16-point rise. On a '60 Minutes' report on the Hewlett book, Lesley Stahl talked to two young women who went to Harvard Business School. They agreed that while they were the perfect age to start families, they didn't find it easy to meet the right mates. Men, apparently, learn early to protect their eggshell egos from high-achieving women. The girls said they hid the fact that they went to Harvard from guys they met because it was the kiss of death. 'The H-bomb,' they dubbed it. 'As soon as you say Harvard Business School . . . that's the end of the conversation,' Ani Vartanian said. 'As soon as the guys say, 'Oh, I go to Harvard Business School,' all the girls start falling into them.' Hewlett thinks that the 2005 American workplace is more macho than ever. 'It's actually much more difficult now than 10 years ago to have a career and raise a family,' she told me. 'The trend lines continue that highly educated women in many countries are increasingly dealing with this creeping nonchoice and end up on this path of delaying finding a mate and delaying childbearing. Whether you're looking at Italy, Russia or the U.S., all of that is true.' Many women continue to fear that the more they accomplish, the more they may have to sacrifice. They worry that men still veer away from 'challenging' women because of a male atavistic desire to be the superior force in a relationship. 'With men and women, it's always all about control issues, isn't it?' says a guy I know, talking about his bitter divorce. Or, as Craig Bierko, a musical comedy star and actor who played one of Carrie's boyfriends on 'Sex and the City,' told me, 'Deep down, beneath the bluster and machismo, men are simply afraid to say that what they're truly looking for in a woman is an intelligent, confident and dependable partner in life whom they can devote themselves to unconditionally until she's 40.' Ms. Versus Mrs. 'Ms.' was supposed to neutralize the stature of women, so they weren't publicly defined by their marital status. When The Times finally agreed to switch to Ms. in its news pages in 1986, after much hectoring by feminists, Gloria Steinem sent flowers to the executive editor, Abe Rosenthal. But nowadays most young brides want to take their husbands' names and brag on the moniker Mrs., a brand that proclaims you belong to him. T-shirts with 'MRS.' emblazoned in sequins or sparkly beads are popular wedding-shower gifts. A Harvard economics professor, Claudia Goldin, did a study last year that found that 44 percent of women in the Harvard class of 1980 who married within 10 years of graduation kept their birth names, while in the class of '90 it was down to 32 percent. In 1990, 23 percent of college-educated women kept their own names after marriage, while a decade later the number had fallen to 17 percent. Time magazine reported that an informal poll in the spring of 2005 by the Knot, a wedding Web site, showed similar results: 81 percent of respondents took their spouse's last name, an increase from 71 percent in 2000. The number of women with hyphenated surnames fell from 21 percent to 8 percent. 'It's a return to romance, a desire to make marriage work,' Goldin told one interviewer, adding that young women might feel that by keeping their own names they were aligning themselves with tedious old-fashioned feminists, and this might be a turnoff to them. The professor, who married in 1979 and kept her name, undertook the study after her niece, a lawyer, changed hers. 'She felt that her generation of women didn't have to do the same things mine did, because of what we had already achieved,' Goldin told Time. Many women now do not think of domestic life as a 'comfortable concentration camp,' as Betty Friedan wrote in 'The Feminine Mystique,' where they are losing their identities and turning into 'anonymous biological robots in a docile mass.' Now they want to be Mrs. Anonymous Biological Robot in a Docile Mass. They dream of being rescued - to flirt, to shop, to stay home and be taken care of. They shop for 'Stepford Fashions' - matching shoes and ladylike bags and the 50's-style satin, lace and chiffon party dresses featured in InStyle layouts - and spend their days at the gym trying for Wisteria Lane waistlines. The Times recently ran a front-page article about young women attending Ivy League colleges, women who are being groomed to take their places in the professional and political elite, who are planning to reject careers in favor of playing traditional roles, staying home and raising children. 'My mother always told me you can't be the best career woman and the best mother at the same time,' the brainy, accomplished Cynthia Liu told Louise Story, explaining why she hoped to be a stay-at-home mom a few years after she goes to law school. 'You always have to choose one over the other.' Kate White, the editor of Cosmopolitan, told me that she sees a distinct shift in what her readers want these days. 'Women now don't want to be in the grind,' she said. 'The baby boomers made the grind seem unappealing.' Cynthia Russett, a professor of American history at Yale, told Story that women today are simply more 'realistic,' having seen the dashed utopia of those who assumed it wouldn't be so hard to combine full-time work and child rearing. To the extent that young women are rejecting the old idea of copying men and reshaping the world around their desires, it's exhilarating progress. But to the extent that a pampered class of females is walking away from the problem and just planning to marry rich enough to cosset themselves in a narrow world of dependence on men, it's an irritating setback. If the new ethos is 'a woman needs a career like a fish needs a bicycle,' it won't be healthy. Movies In all those Tracy-Hepburn movies more than a half-century ago, it was the snap and crackle of a romance between equals that was so exciting. You still see it onscreen occasionally - the incendiary chemistry of Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie playing married assassins aiming for mutually assured orgasms and destruction in 'Mr. and Mrs. Smith.' Interestingly, that movie was described as retro because of its salty battle of wits between two peppery lovers. Moviemakers these days are more interested in exploring what Steve Martin, in his novel 'Shopgirl,' calls the 'calm cushion' of romances between unequals. In James Brooks's movie 'Spanglish,' Adam Sandler, playing a sensitive Los Angeles chef, falls for his hot Mexican maid, just as in 'Maid in Manhattan,' Ralph Fiennes, playing a sensitive New York pol, falls for the hot Latino maid at his hotel, played by Jennifer Lopez. Sandler's maid, who cleans up for him without being able to speak English, is presented as the ideal woman, in looks and character. His wife, played by Téa Leoni, is repellent: a jangly, yakking, overachieving, overexercised, unfaithful, shallow she-monster who has just lost her job with a commercial design firm and fears she has lost her identity. In 2003, we had 'Girl With a Pearl Earring,' in which Colin Firth's Vermeer erotically paints Scarlett Johansson's Dutch maid, and Richard Curtis's 'Love Actually,' about the attraction of unequals. The witty and sophisticated British prime minister, played by Hugh Grant, falls for the chubby girl who wheels the tea and scones into his office. A businessman married to the substantial Emma Thompson, the sister of the prime minister, falls for his sultry secretary. A novelist played by Colin Firth falls for his maid, who speaks only Portuguese. Art is imitating life, turning women who seek equality into selfish narcissists and objects of rejection rather than of affection. It's funny. I come from a family of Irish domestics - statuesque, 6-foot-tall women who cooked, kept house and acted as nannies for some of America's first families. I was always so proud of achieving more - succeeding in a high-powered career that would have been closed to my great-aunts. How odd, then, to find out now that being a maid would have enhanced my chances with men. An upstairs maid, of course. Women's Magazines Cosmo is still the best-selling magazine on college campuses, as it was when I was in college, and the best-selling monthly magazine on the newsstand. The June 2005 issue, with Jessica Simpson on the cover, her cleavage spilling out of an orange croqueted halter dress, could have been June 1970. The headlines are familiar: 'How to turn him on in 10 words or less,' 'Do You Make Men M-E-L-T? Take our quiz,' 'Bridal Special,' Cosmo's stud search and 'Cosmo's Most Famous Sex Tips; the Legendary Tricks That Have Brought Countless Guys to Their Knees.' (Sex Trick 4: 'Place a glazed doughnut around your man's member, then gently nibble the pastry and lick the icing . . . as well as his manhood.' Another favorite Cosmo trick is to yell out during sex which of your girlfriends thinks your man is hot.) At any newsstand, you'll see the original Cosmo girl's man-crazy, sex-obsessed image endlessly, tiresomely replicated, even for the teen set. On the cover of Elle Girl: '267 Ways to Look Hot.' 'There has been lots of copying - look at Glamour,' Helen Gurley Brown, Cosmo's founding editor told me and sighed. 'I used to have all the sex to myself.' Before it curdled into a collection of stereotypes, feminism had fleetingly held out a promise that there would be some precincts of womanly life that were not all about men. But it never quite materialized. It took only a few decades to create a brazen new world where the highest ideal is to acknowledge your inner slut. I am woman; see me strip. Instead of peaceful havens of girl things and boy things, we have a society where women of all ages are striving to become self-actualized sex kittens. Hollywood actresses now work out by taking pole-dancing classes. Female sexuality has been a confusing corkscrew path, not a serene progressive arc. We had decades of Victorian prudery, when women were not supposed to like sex. Then we had the pill and zipless encounters, when women were supposed to have the same animalistic drive as men. Then it was discovered - shock, horror! - that men and women are not alike in their desires. But zipless morphed into hookups, and the more one-night stands the girls on 'Sex and the City' had, the grumpier they got. Oddly enough, Felix Dennis, who created the top-selling Maxim, said he stole his 'us against the world' lad-magazine attitude from women's magazines like Cosmo. Just as women didn't mind losing Cosmo's prestigious fiction as the magazine got raunchier, plenty of guys were happy to lose the literary pretensions of venerable men's magazines and embrace simple-minded gender stereotypes, like the Maxim manifesto instructing women, 'If we see you in the morning and night, why call us at work?' Jessica Simpson and Eva Longoria move seamlessly from showing their curves on the covers of Cosmo and Glamour to Maxim, which dubbed Simpson 'America's favorite ball and chain!' In the summer of 2005, both British GQ and FHM featured Pamela Anderson busting out of their covers. ('I think of my breasts as props,' she told FHM.) A lot of women now want to be Maxim babes as much as men want Maxim babes. So women have moved from fighting objectification to seeking it. 'I have been surprised,' Maxim's editor, Ed Needham, confessed to me, 'to find that a lot of women would want to be somehow validated as a Maxim girl type, that they'd like to be thought of as hot and would like their boyfriends to take pictures of them or make comments about them that mirror the Maxim representation of a woman, the Pamela Anderson sort of brand. That, to me, is kind of extraordinary.' The luscious babes on the cover of Maxim were supposed to be men's fantasy guilty pleasures, after all, not their real life-affirming girlfriends. Beauty While I never related to the unstyled look of the early feminists and I tangled with boyfriends who did not want me to wear makeup and heels, I always assumed that one positive result of the feminist movement would be a more flexible and capacious notion of female beauty, a release from the tyranny of the girdled, primped ideal of the 50's. I was wrong. Forty years after the dawn of feminism, the ideal of feminine beauty is more rigid and unnatural than ever. When Gloria Steinem wrote that 'all women are Bunnies,' she did not mean it as a compliment; it was a feminist call to arms. Decades later, it's just an aesthetic fact, as more and more women embrace Botox and implants and stretch and protrude to extreme proportions to satisfy male desires. Now that technology is biology, all women can look like inflatable dolls. It's clear that American narcissism has trumped American feminism. It was naïve and misguided for the early feminists to tendentiously demonize Barbie and Cosmo girl, to disdain such female proclivities as shopping, applying makeup and hunting for sexy shoes and cute boyfriends and to prognosticate a world where men and women dressed alike and worked alike in navy suits and were equal in every way. But it is equally naïve and misguided for young women now to fritter away all their time shopping for boudoirish clothes and text-messaging about guys while they disdainfully ignore gender politics and the seismic shifts on the Supreme Court that will affect women's rights for a generation. What I didn't like at the start of the feminist movement was that young women were dressing alike, looking alike and thinking alike. They were supposed to be liberated, but it just seemed like stifling conformity. What I don't like now is that the young women rejecting the feminist movement are dressing alike, looking alike and thinking alike. The plumage is more colorful, the shapes are more curvy, the look is more plastic, the message is diametrically opposite - before it was don't be a sex object; now it's be a sex object - but the conformity is just as stifling. And the Future . . . Having boomeranged once, will women do it again in a couple of decades? If we flash forward to 2030, will we see all those young women who thought trying to Have It All was a pointless slog, now middle-aged and stranded in suburbia, popping Ativan, struggling with rebellious teenagers, deserted by husbands for younger babes, unable to get back into a work force they never tried to be part of? It's easy to picture a surreally familiar scene when women realize they bought into a raw deal and old trap. With no power or money or independence, they'll be mere domestic robots, lasering their legs and waxing their floors - or vice versa - and desperately seeking a new Betty Friedan.

Subject: Anne Heche - Ellen Degeneres From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 02:02:11 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Emma I have a tale for you and the dear readers of pkarchive since you choose to bring gender issues here - and why not - we are all defined by the collection of chemicals we have no matter the INCYTE patents on our genes - hehe. First young boys have high levels of testosterone that young girls do not. No laws or social restructering alters this. Medicine and gene manipulation can however. To overcome millions of years of evolution requires more than just social reform. I like to read the famed economist Murray Rothbard - he was known for many things but one of them was attacking Ayn Rand and her hypocrisies. She loved her books remember - she did not love kids and never had any - a choice her parents did not make. Books will not nurse you when you are old and dying like a loving child will. Also a link to counter some of the certain but WRONG (a la kerry attacking bush) ideas that have been presented in this article trying to find simple logic to complex things. www.mensnewsdaily.com Every Randian meme type person I meet - I agree to consider their opinions if they will also read and consider others. So please don't be closed minded and only read one side of the issue - go to www.mensnewsdaily.com and see how the other side feel in this complex world of ours. Now to some points in your article: (((I knew it even before the 1995 publication of 'The Rules,' a dating bible that encouraged women to return to prefeminist mind games by playing hard to get. ('Don't stay on the phone for more than 10 minutes..))) I was watching Terry HULK Hogans tv show the other day. I do not like wrestling, I do not watch it, but my uncle was over and he likes Hulk and the show. Some things I noticed Emma was that the HULK seemed like a pretty good family man. He gave his wife a lot of control and her him at various times - it seemed like they really tried to compromise with each other and give in at the right times. Now lets switch to his KIDS - a 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. The daughter he is SUPER protective of - very hard on her dating people, very hard on her having any kind of intimacy, kissing, holding hands etc - he is spending a ton of time and money into her professional career (singing) and has very high hopes for her - he spoils her tremendously from my viewpoint and she is very hungry for ATTENTION - his and many others. He uses his celebrity status and power and money to hog most of her time over other males that want it. Now the son - he is spoiled a lot too - MATERIALISTICALLY - but dad seems to spend a lot less time with him, and no where near as hopeful on his future of being a big player in anything as the daughter. Dad took the son out and tried to get some girls to come over to him because the son is getting WAY too involved with one girl - see how DIFFERENT this FAMILY MAN treats his son and daughter and their futures. He told his son dont give that ONE GIRL so much TIME or she will not take you seriously and see you as needy - cut her off, see her as little as possible and always act busy or not interested when talking to her - he said SON I am worried about you - she will get bored with you and just USE you then - dont let that happen. It seems like son is not going to listen to Hulk and becoming very needy and subserviant to his girlfriend. See how different it already is for the 2 teenagers - the boy is getting his attention/emotion fix from ONE person - the girl is trying to increase her HAREM of attention givers - why do you think this trend is already so well established in these 2 children? One seeking attention from just one and less and less from others - and the other seeking attention from millions and could seemingly care less about any one persons attention? (((Women might dye their hair, apply makeup and spend hours finding a hip-slimming dress, she said, while men may drive a nice car or wear a fancy suit that makes them seem richer than they are.))) Madonna sang - MATERIAL WORLD - and now admits she doesn't want her own baby to read or view some of her earlier ART. Madonna had a baby with a more POWERFUL man right? I don't think so. I do not cater to this MATERIAL world, I don't drive a porsche and I don't like people that do. Bleached blondes irritate me to no end as well. ((( In this retro world, a woman must play hard to get but stay soft as a kitten. And avoid sarcasm. Altogether. ))) Women (or men) can play hard to get all they want - society is changing and me and other people want NOTHING to do with this kind of FAKE person that plays GAMES. ((('Otherwise intelligent men, who know women still earn less than men as a rule, say things like: 'I'll get the check. You only have girl money.''))) I don't believe this fantasy posted in this article. I see many homeless men, but few homeless women. I go to mexico and they take the starving girls to get free church food - they let the starving boys die on the streets. Whatever AGGREGATE marginal difference in income WOMEN are cheated out of - is more than offset by thier power in the court system, media, entertainment, colleges, meme share - etc etc. Me and most of my peers do not go on dates anymore - and if we did - we certainly would not PAY for the other person - male or female. (((in society was determined by her looks, that she was an ornament up for sale to the highest bidder - no longer applied. ))) I lived in west palm beach, Fl - many rich older women there - single,divorced,widowed - and I saw WOMEN buy trophy BOYFRIENDS just as this article claims of men!! I saw WOMEN buy other trophy WOMEN just as this article claims MEN does of WOMEN - HAHA! ((('I can't believe I'm 46 and not married. Men only want to marry their personal assistants or P.R. women.' ))) I think of Demi Moore's recent court case where she tried to get her male house keeper to have sex with her - I have seen many powerful women also want a LESSER to SERVE her personal and emotional needs in a non competive non challenging way - this articles SIMPLE version of reality breaks down when you start talking about dick cheney's daughter, anne heche, ellen degeners - etc etc etc (((Sylvia Ann Hewlett, an economist and the author of 'Creating a Life: Professional Women and the Quest for Children,' a book published in 2002, conducted a survey and found that 55 percent of 35-year-old career women were childless.))) And this is why we have an illegal immigration crisis - we did not have the babies to sustain our GROWTH so we import them - the babies we did have we place WAGE and CHILD safety laws on so that only ILLEGALS can pick the fruit - my mom and dad picked fruit at 9 years old in the USA - but not TODAY in the world of laws and rules and false SIMPLE beliefs in COMPLEX worlds. I don't understand why the rich build these gates communities to keep out the hispanics, but then have them come in and be maids, and gardeners and chefs - what a hypocrisy! (((And among corporate executives who earn $100,000 or more, she said, 49 percent of the women did not have children, compared with only 19 percent of the men))) The men were able to find wives to stay home and raise the future of america with personal attention and no daycare - I bet the women will be hard to find men to become Michael Keaton MR. MOM - another FRICTION between millions of years of evolution and NATURE and societal expectations that will have to be reversed or changed with technology - not laws or social custom if that is your goal. (((The Times recently ran a front-page article about young women attending Ivy League colleges, women who are being groomed to take their places in the professional and political elite, who are planning to reject careers in favor of playing traditional roles, staying home and raising children. ))) Someone has to stay home and raise the children, or else we import fundie muslims or illegal hispanics to do the work of daycare and they bring thier BELIEFS and CULTURE in. Its all connected and interlocking. How many women married in the harvard class of 1980 versus 2005 within 10 years? A long time ago I dated a girl in a small southern town - her mother had come over from china - she was very pro family and her and her husband were very close and loving - they had 3 kids and poured everything into those kids - they ran a chinese restaurant and this made them rich over the years - their daughter was sent to harvard - after harvard I was too small time to date anymore - I still tried - she never had TIME - momma tried to get her to see boys - no luck - now many years later momma has accepted the fact none of her kids will be married, none will make her have grandkids and she cries to me - I say you and this society are the one that taught her career first, college first, money first, success first, happiness and family last - she doesn't like it when I slap her with the truth. Her kids have no time for her, and they will not produce her any grand kids either - this is how you build a successful society?!? - she says its worse here than china - people stick to family there she says. (((The witty and sophisticated British prime minister, played by Hugh Grant, falls for the chubby girl who wheels the tea and scones into his office.))) However in REAL LIFE Hugh Grant - who is handsome, famous, charming, witty, funny, rich, MASSIVE income - is so WEAK on SEX POWER when it comes to WOMEN he has to go buy a crack head hooker - more proof that all the money in the world is not as powerful when you have a society that has stacked the deck in so many other ways for women and thier power - sexual, legal, media, colleges, etc etc etc (((It took only a few decades to create a brazen new world where the highest ideal is to acknowledge your inner slut.))) I know way too many lesbians and gay men that do this as well - they have SEXUAL POWER and crave it and want it out of thier HAREM of attention givers. Absolute power - even sexual kind - corrupts absolutely. ((compliment; it was a feminist call to arms. Decades later, it's just an aesthetic fact, as more and more women embrace Botox and implants and stretch and protrude to extreme proportions to satisfy male desires.)) I know lesbians that do this to be more attractive to thier female mates. So much for that lie. (((What I didn't like at the start of the feminist movement was that young women were dressing alike, looking alike and thinking alike. ))) Google for sex and red china and see how even under STRONG central authority - women still had the upper sexual hand in china a few decades back - the only COUNTER poor men had to this was financial power - now that it has been almost equalized - women have so much power it is unbelievable - media, legal, college, sexual etc etc. (((s, deserted by husbands for younger babes, unable to get back into a work force they never tried to be part of? ))) Another TRITE fallacy! Most of my peers did not leave thier marriages to seek a younger emotional bag of drama - they left the older emotional bag of drama with the education to NEVER get in that situation AGAIN - NEVER NEVER. They will not remarry - wether the mate is young old or rich - they are THROUGH with marriage. Their mate turned into an increasing drain on time and money and resources while giving little to nothing back and they will not enter that deal again. I see fewer of my young peers wanting marriage, wanting intimacy, wanting sex, the stress is too great for all the GAMES they tell me - much easier to sit home and watch oxygen channel or lifetime tv if you are a woman and sit him and watch porn and adam corolla if you are a guy. These TV producers have went to great research and lengths to give emotional outlets to people instead of people giving that to each other anymore. Now johnny5 dated this girl in south georgia once - and her dad bought her a car on credit, gave her trips to the bahamas on credit, met her EVERY DESIRE on credit - and I took him outside one day and say PA PA - I know you want the ATTENTION of your daughter, but I do too, and one way I can do that is to give her nice adventures and spend time with her - but if you are giving her all the adventures, sucking all her time with your credit card - you leave NOTHING for me to offer her - so Daddy is going into bankruptcy now catering to the every need and whim of PRINCESS - she is stressing over how she is to keep up her materialistic lifetsyle that makes her happy that no one else is willing to FUND - and I sit her talking to total strangers reading the NY Times and watching Cspan rather than having a meaningful relationship with a real person - GO AMERICA!

Subject: Re: Anne Heche - Ellen Degeneres From: Mik To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 23:09:21 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Okay can I give my two cents worth? At the end of the day - I hate to say this but it REALLY has to do with anyone of the two in the relationship thinking they can do better and wanting to do better. I mean, that's it in a nutshell.... think about it. A woman really likes a guy and feels this is the best she will get, she may want purposely try play some sort of 'hard to get' game but if the guy honestly believes he can do better and not respond to her game... well in a very short period of time, I firmly believe she will have stopped playing that game and fall sub-servient to him. The reverse also applies. The horrible part is if the 'controller' in the relationship doesn't face up to the situation, stop the relationship and go on searching for better; but rather abuses the 'sub-servient' and basically uses them. Whether the two are in a relationship or trying to court one another. The rule still applies, the one who feels they can do better will either blow-off the sub-servient or get involved in a relationship because it is better than being alone. But the relationship will remain lop-sided so long as one believes they can do better. The problem: With all the images of perfect people being thrown at us, we are all becoming increasingly fussy and wanting to hold out for something better. The ultimate relationship is when both partners realise they are not going to get anyone better and they see each other as equals. I'm sure this does happen. How often though? Alright, can I get change for those two cents please.

Subject: http://www.housewithbride.com/ From: Johnny5 To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 00:55:43 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Mik I like your analysis and agree with most of it. Here are some more thoughts. Macro wise in the culture we are discussing - men are so far down the totem pole of 'equality' when it comes to sexual power, legal power, college meme share - etc etc A woman can not take an average man seriously - unless you are mega famous, rich, etc etc her sexual power is so much STRONGER than yours that you have to have lots of power in other areas - the lowest of female crackheads have more sexual power than the highest of celebrity men. If you dont believe me - go get a female friend - walk into any church, bar, store, social setting or ANY venue at all and see which one of you can line up 5 dates over the next month easiest. I read local newspaper reports where a man 19 goes with a girl 14 - in Fla where I live the age of consent is 18 - he goes to jail and gets a sex offender listing - that is worse than a murderer who chops up the family - the sex offenders get put on the local TV but not the murderer. However a few months back a 19 year old girl had sex with a 14 year old girl - the very SAME county that sent the boy down decided not to do the same for the 19 year old lesbian girl that broke the law and gave her a misdeamenor charge for the very exact same crime!!! This is not JUSTICE. Justice should be BLIND no? I can't even get started on divorce court - read www.mensnewsdaily.com to see how UNEQUAL our legal system is. Mik, I have lived all over the world, I have seen various stages of poverty, government, economy and culture. Emma is focusing on the middle to uppler class american professional female - the Randians as I like to call them after Ayn Rand. Go to the website in the title - a 48 year old woman will marry you if you will buy her 600K house and are a nice guy - BWAHAHA! At 48 I think she is kidding herself that she is still in the running - I do not view a person who has chosen to live single for 48 years as being a big committer to a relationship where you have to compromise and give in sometimes. She is just not programmed that way. My Macro point - women of this culture don't even want a MAN anymore he is so sexually WEAK and POWERLESS in that culture. Some think they need to go up the sexual totem pole to find an equal or superior - Anne Heche - Ellen Degeneres etc etc My Hugh Grant, Charlie Sheen, Wesley Snipes for celebrity examples of how powerless they really are - to get thier 'freak' on their celebrity power is not ENOUGH - they have to find women ravaged with drug addiction 'crackheads' to get thier sex. Personal example, I have a friend in Portland Ore who went with his aunt to a strip bar - he is 24 - brad pitt looks - athlete - aunt is roseanne looking flabby - 48. They wanted him to PAY for a private dance but because AUNT was a WOMAN she gets it FREE - he says this is true in many places across the country - not just portland. This Harvard girl I am talking about - her life is not even about being in a relationship with a person anymore - MAN or WOMAN - Mom or Friend - her career has replaced whatever culture her mother tried to instill in her about family and children. She devotes all her time to career and work - zero to a boyfriend, girlfriend, friend, mom - etc etc You are still thinking in terms of the woman trading up to a higher MATE - I am saying it has transcended this and the woman trades up to a higher PURPOSE - a job - that does not include a mate - see? Maybe when she gets 48 too and her job slows down she will think more about what momma said - but at 48 is that a good time to be planning family and kids? Some say yes, I disagree. I have read many psychology journal articles - as we move away from usufruct societies towards mega society - family and relationships are not as NECESSARY and you are right - people want to get the BEST for themselves - in the past the BEST was a nice family with a loving partner and kids - today the BEST for yourself is a nice job with a larger house, faster BMW and bigger paycheck - I see articles in florida newspapers about housing explosions - a part of that growth is divorcees splitting up and now 2 houses needed before where 1 house was needed - now remember the TV show - BRADY BUNCH - they moved 2 families into 1 house. Well I read articles in the st pete times in fla where single mothers are going broke trying to pay off big mortgages so they seek out other SINGLE mothers to move in with and make the payments cheaper - notice Mik they do not WANT Mr. Brady - they want another woman in thier same boat. This is true of MANY of my friends male and female - they either don't marry at all and throw themselves into thier studies or research or work. If they are divorced - most were so crushed by the process they will never enter marriage again - there is no TRADING UP to a better MATE - they have QUIT THE GAME. They focus on investing time in internet chat boards, journals, investing - they forego intimate relationships and do not build new ones. This is a troublesome theme for me Mik - I don't know about you - but I think most of the randian types here do not have a long term significant other and like me spend much time watching c-span, reading economics, and less time cultivating meaningful long lasting interpersonal relationships. I watched Ben Stien the other day on COST of FREEDOM - they asked him who he loves most - he said he loved his pet dog more than anything in the world and that made his life worth living. My grandpa loved his hunting dogs too - but his wife and kids were first - not today. Can randian society survive long term with such MEMES of career and advancement at the cost of family and kids? I think the proof is in the pudding - Ayn loved her books - her genetic line ended with her - she didn't have kids. Her Memes live on to pollute another generation however. I watched the Reverand Al Sharpton talk about Rosa Parks - he made some good points about dignified women back in her day and the sadness we have today in young black women with thier thug materialistic culture. I had a friend in Croatia Mik - war torn - poor - he came to the USA - he got his MBA - he said Johnny5 - you have great cities and schools and wonderful life in the USA, I enjoy many things about your country - your freedoms - the opportunity - but he said - I am going home to find me a nice wife and suffer all the corruption and oppression and hatred back home because your culture has provided no nice wives for me to marry. So Mik he left - he was a tennis pro that used to room mate with andre agassi - he found him a nice lady and married - one day he was running near the sava river - a mine went off - blew off his foot. No more tennis - one of his passions in life - I said see friend - if you had stayed in america you would still have your foot and could play. He said Johnny5, I lost my foot, I lost my tennis, but I still have my wife who chose family and kids over career - BTW Johnny5 - where is that girl that you used to date that went to Harvard? BWAHAHA!!

Subject: Re: http://www.housewithbride.com/ From: Mik To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Fri, Nov 04, 2005 at 22:52:08 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Very deep words you have there. You know - I can't argue any of your points. I must concede all are right. Dare I now raise a more sensitive topic related to what you have just raised? Your statement, 'A woman can not take an average man seriously - unless you are mega famous, rich, etc etc her sexual power is so much STRONGER than yours...' It appears (if I understand you correctly) that our new world of 'equality' has ushered in a gross neglect of the male race by women? A sense of irrelevance unless for a fling? Now for the sensitive topic... would you say that the Hardline Muslims would be right in holding women back?

Subject: Re: http://www.housewithbride.com/ From: Johnny5 To: Mik Date Posted: Mon, Nov 07, 2005 at 15:20:01 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: No, just as the west is wrong with its equality too - balance in all things. If it was a choice between hardline muslim or western way - I will take the western way. I think those hardline muslims are going to fight to the death to save their culture though.

Subject: Hunting Habits of Wolves From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 11:56:51 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/18/science/earth/18wolf.html?ex=1287288000&en=76f9cf0a9ff50758&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 18, 2005 Hunting Habits of Wolves Change Ecological Balance in Yellowstone By JIM ROBBINS YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. - Hiking along the small, purling Blacktail Deer Creek, Douglas W. Smith, a wolf biologist, makes his way through a lush curtain of willows. Nearly absent for decades, willows have roared back to life in Yellowstone, and the reason, Mr. Smith believes, is that 10 years after wolves were introduced to Yellowstone, the park is full of them, dispersed across 13 packs. He says the wolves have changed the park's ecology in many ways; for one, they have scared the elk to high ground and away from browsing on every willow shoot by rivers and streams. 'Wolves have caused a trophic cascade,' he said. 'Wolves are at the top of it all here. They change the conditions for everyone else, including willows.' The last 10 years in Yellowstone have re-written the book on wolf biology. Wildlife biologists and ecologists are stunned by the changes they have seen. It is a rare chance to understand in detail how the effects of an 'apex predator' ripple through an ecosystem. Much of what has taken place is recounted in the recently released book 'Decade of the Wolf: Returning the Wild to Yellowstone,' by Mr. Smith and Gary Ferguson. (Mr. Smith will discuss the effects at 7 tonight in the Linder Theater at the American Museum of Natural History. Admission is $15.) In 1995, 14 wolves from Canada were brought into the park by truck and sleigh in the dead of winter, held in a cage for 10 weeks and released. Seventeen were added in 1996. Now, about 130 wolves in 13 packs roam the park. Yellowstone, says Mr. Smith, is full. Over the next 10 years, elk numbers dropped considerably. One of the world's largest elk herds, which feeds on rich grasses on the northern range of the park, dropped from 19,000 in 1994 to about 11,000. Wolf reintroduction has been cited as the culprit by hunters, but Mr. Smith says the cause is more complex. Data recently released after three years of study by the Park Service, the United States Geological Survey and the University of Minnesota found that 53 percent of elk deaths were caused by grizzly bears that eat calves. Just 13 percent were linked to wolves and 11 percent to coyotes. Drought also playing a role. The study is continuing. Scientists do say that wolf predation has been significant enough to redistribute the elk. That has in turn affected vegetation and a variety of wildlife. The elk had not seen wolves since the 1920's when they disappeared from the park. Over the last 10 years, as they have been hunted by wolf packs, they have grown more vigilant. They move more than they used to, and spend most of their time in places that afford a 360-degree view, said Mr. Smith. They do not spend time in places where they do not feel secure - near a rise or a bluff, places that could conceal wolves. In those places willow thickets, and cottonwoods have bounced back. Aspen stands are also being rejuvenated. Until recently the only cottonwood trees in the park were 70 to 100 years old. Now large numbers of saplings are sprouting. William Ripple, a professor of botany at Oregon State University, calls the process the 'ecology of fear,' which has allowed the vegetation to thrive as a result of behavioral changes in the newly skittish and peripatetic elk. Though the changes now are on a fairly small scale, the effects of the wolves will spread, and in 30 years, according to Mr. Smith, Yellowstone will look very different. Not everyone is convinced. 'Wolves have a role to play,' said Robert Crabtree, a canid biologist who has researched wolves and coyotes in the park since the late 1980's. 'But the research has ignored climate change and flooding, which have also had an effect on vegetation. Their work isn't wrong, but it's incomplete.' Where willows and cottonwoods have returned, they stabilize the banks of streams and provide shade, which lowers the water temperature and makes the habitat better for trout, resulting in more and bigger fish. Songbirds like the yellow warbler and Lincoln sparrow have increased where new vegetation stands are thriving. Willow and aspen, food for beaver, have brought them back to the streams and rivers on the northern range. In 1996, there was one beaver dam on the northern range; now there are 10. The number of wolves has also greatly increased the amount of meat on the ground to the benefit of other species. Grizzlies and coyotes rarely kill adult elk, but each pack of wolves kills an elk every two or three days. After they eat their fill, other carnivores take over the carcass. Opportunistic scavengers like magpies and ravens make a living on the carcasses. The number of coyotes, on the other hand, has fallen by half. Numbers of their prey - voles, mice and other rodents - have grown. And that, in turn bolsters the populations of red foxes and the raptors. The wolves in Yellowstone are not hunted, but they do face hazards. They kill one another in violent encounters between different packs. Fourteen wolves have been killed by cars in the last 10 years, eight of them at Mile Marker 30, on U.S. 191 on the west side of the park. But the most worrisome threat is posed by the dogs that people bring to the park. The dogs can carry parvovirus, which is the leading cause of death in the wolves over the last year, and it has been killing 60 to 70 percent of the pups. The wolf population decreased to 130 from 170 in the last year from all causes. Biologists plan to count wolves again this winter and do more testing, and they expect to learn more about the effects of the virus. 'I'm a little concerned,' Mr. Smith said. Much is yet to be discovered in the natural laboratory of Yellowstone. 'Ten years is not that long a time to measure the effects of wolves,' Mr. Smith said. 'Their effects are so far reaching and changing that it takes a long time for them to emerge.'

Subject: Loggers, Scorning the Law From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 09:21:29 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/international/americas/16brazil.html?ex=1287115200&en=dc1db08448d5b01d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 16, 2005 Loggers, Scorning the Law, Ravage the Amazon By LARRY ROHTER UNIÃO DA FLORESTA, Brazil - As soon as the dry season arrives, the loggers swing into action. Day after day from June onward, their empty flatbed trucks depart early in the morning from this dusty settlement along the Trans-Amazon Highway, only to return starting in midafternoon, weighed down with the freshly cut trunks of ipe, jatoba and cedar trees. No matter that the Brazilian government last year suspended the permits required to chop down trees in this part of the jungle, making timber harvesting illegal for all but a handful of the loggers. No matter either that most of the valuable tropical hardwoods being felled with chainsaws and tractors stand on public lands that, at least in theory, are off limits even to the few timber merchants who still have licenses. 'It goes on all night long, with the traffic so intense some nights, 30 or 40 trucks thundering through, that people can't even sleep,' said Milton Fernandes Coutinho, president of the local farmworkers' association, which represents peasant settlers living along the roads used by the loggers. 'We've complained over and over again to the government, but nobody does anything to stop them.' Brazilian government statistics suggest that widespread flouting of the law is also occurring elsewhere in the Amazon. Despite regulations that are more rigorous, at least on paper, and repeated pledges by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to crack down on those pillaging the world's largest tropical rain forest, shipments of wood from the region are booming as never before. According to government figures, Brazilian timber exports from the Amazon increased in value nearly 50 percent in 2004 over the previous year, to just under $1 billion. In the first half of this year, when the rainy season traditionally slows down activities, exports rose an additional 20 percent in value. Over all, nearly 40 percent of the wood cut in the Amazon is now being shipped overseas, compared with only 14 percent in 1999. Brazil's main markets are the United States, which accounts for one-third of all timber shipments abroad, followed by China, at 14 percent and growing rapidly, and European countries, which collectively account for 40 percent. 'The problem, though, is that the government's own figures indicate that about 60 percent of those exports are illegal,' said Paulo Adario, who directs the Amazon campaign of the environmental group Greenpeace. 'So you have to ask yourself: how is it possible that even with logging permits suspended since July 2004, wood exports are continuing to rise so frighteningly?' Advocates for peasant settlers, including labor unions and Roman Catholic Church officials, answer by pointing to the traditional reluctance of the federal government's environmental and forestry agency, known as Ibama, to act against loggers and sawmill owners. The agency is chronically short of staff and money, its employees are often threatened, and neither the army nor the police are willing to provide protection to inspectors on official missions. 'You can have a thousand laws on paper, but they don't mean anything unless the authorities enforce them,' said Erwin Krautler, the Roman Catholic bishop of the Xingu region. Ibama officials, however, argue that they are enforcing the law more aggressively now and have begun making progress. They note that seizures of illegally cut wood are up, that the volume of timber harvested has begun to drop sharply, and that for the first time ever, a timber merchant was recently jailed for logging on public land. 'As regards issues of monitoring and enforcement, you have to look at the Amazon in a broad context,' João Paulo Capobianco, the agency's director of forests, said in a telephone interview from Brasília. 'Even if we were to shut off all of the exits, there would still be some places where timber would still leave illegally. But there is no doubt that our performance this year has infinitely improved compared to previous years.' In this jungle region, however, timber trucks still roam freely and unchecked on the rutted dirt roads, with no sign of inspectors. One afternoon in September, for example, a truck loaded down with logs and workers roared into town to drop off the laborers at their homes. 'Is it really necessary to take all these pictures?' one worker asked nervously when a reporter and photographer approached the truck. When asked if his work crew had permits to cut timber, he replied: 'No, we don't have any management plan. Nobody here does. You're not going to tell Ibama, are you?' The truck hurried off, but a few minutes later stopped at a sawmill operated by Nilson Samuelson, a former mayor here. Visible through an open gate was a truck laden with timber. In a telephone interview, Mr. Samuelson - who organized a demonstration here in 2003 against Ibama inspectors at which he said that 'we need to bring bin Laden here to teach these people a lesson' - acknowledged that he was breaking the law and said, 'My activities are none of your business.' He also argued that economic necessity justified his actions. 'If you're going to bust me, you're going to have to bust everybody, because nobody here has authorizations,' he said. 'We're just trying to survive. Who is going to give me the money to pay my employees and educate my children? What are you trying to do, have Ibama wipe me out and leave 250 families without jobs? Who cares about the law? What am I supposed to do, go hungry?' With large parts of the eastern and southern flanks of the Amazon already devastated, the principal target of loggers and sawmill owners these days is the so-called Terra do Meio, or Midlands, between the Xingu and Iriri Rivers. In fact, the area north of here, between the Trans-Amazon Highway and the Amazon River, is so active that local people have begun calling it Iraq. 'Because the loggers are bombing the life out of it,' Mr. Coutinho of the farmworkers' association explained. According to testimony in a parliamentary inquiry into the illegal timber trade, irregularities in another government program have also contributed to the recent lumber boom. Called Legal Harvest, the new program was meant to benefit poor peasants, but according to a report of the congressional committee has become an illicit fund-raising device for Mr. da Silva's Workers' Party. The program allows thousands of peasant settler families to cut down about 7.5 acres of forest on their lands yearly and to sell the timber to sawmills. But according to the testimony of the president of the state loggers' union, Mário Rubens de Souza Rodrigues, loggers often simply buy certificates from peasants who have already cleared their fields and use the documents to cover up their own illegal harvesting. In return, loggers and sawmill operators made large donations during the most recent national municipal elections to candidates of the governing Workers' Party, which at the national level is already mired in the worst corruption scandal in modern Brazilian history. Among those named in Brazilian press reports as having taken part in the timber arrangement are the new mayor here and her husband, who is a congressional deputy, and a federal senator and her former husband, the regional chief of the environmental agency. 'The Legal Harvest program has been suspended, but we have no indication that indicates these allegations can be verified,' said Mr. Capobianco, the agency official in Brasília. 'We think that the plan is the correct way to do things, and it is our intention to continue with this mechanism so long as we can assure conditions that guarantee no fraud is taking place.' Workers' Party officials also deny any involvement in improprieties related to the plan. But government investigators confirm that they are examining the program and that they have found irregularities.

Subject: 20% of Pete is owned by Big Pharma From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 08:45:26 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: http://www.patentbaristas.com/archives/000266.php One-Fifth of Human Genome is Now Under Patent Science magazine ran a story that researchers at MIT found that nearly 20 percent of the human genome, or 4,382 of the known 23, 688 human genes, have been patented, with over half owned by private companies and 28 percent assigned to universities. Around 63% of the patents are assigned to private firms, with one firm, Incyte Pharmaceuticals/Incyte Genomics, having intellectual property rights covering 2,000 human genes. The study also shows that there are specific regions of the human genome known as 'hot spots' of patent activity where some genes have up to 20 patents asserting rights to how those genes can be used. There are the genes thought likely to be involved in certain diseases. Obviously, we don't all have to start sending in royalty checks for use of our genes or anything but it does tend to surprise laypeople that isolated DNA sequence can be patented in the same manner that a new drug. Which begs the question: Is this a good thing or a bad thing to have all these patents? Some argue that gene patents promote the disclosure and dissemination of information by making important uses of gene sequences publicly known. They also provide the promise of financial rewards necessary to secure financial backing, e.g., venture capital, to pay for the cost of doing research. There is the risk that research will tend more toward commercially-exploitable products than towards those that are most in need. But this is the whole of the patent bargain - giving an incentive to do the research. While one could argue that research would be better spent on treatments for AIDS instead of for Viagra®, the profits propel the scientific machinery and can provide insights that can have a broader impact. Others feel that gene patents can block future research and discoveries into these genes. It also means that researchers and research institutions need to tread carefully in their work to avoid infringing on someone's patent. Although, I would argue that it's no more true than the care that must be taken with any other type of patented composition, method or other intellectual property right that might be infringed in the course of research. And, look at it this way, in 20 years, all those inventions will be public domain. Sweet.

Subject: New Drug Bill creates Monopoly From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 08:31:04 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Hey Pete - Maybe silver nanoparticles won't be so hot after all - seems Bush and friends created new monopoly protection with thier new drug bill. You are always ahead of the trend pete - Vangaurd Healthcare - here i come! I guess suing MERCK scared up our coporate (non) governance business leaders and they dont want the little people getting mad about dying from vioxx eh? http://www.patentbaristas.com/archives/000269.php The bill also extends some prescription drug patents. However, the extensions have been criticized by some organizations who fear that they would block more affordable generic drugs. For instance, the bill would allow Health and Human Services to sign exclusive sales contracts with particular manufacturers for a particular product. It would forbid government purchases of generic versions of such new drugs or vaccines as well as public sales of the products for use as countermeasures. Liability protection was also a key concern in order to protect consumers from vaccines and countermeasures that proved harmful. The measure states that a manufacturer, distibutor, or administrator of a security countermeasure, or a qualified pandemic and epidemic product or a health care provider shall be immune from suit or liability caused by or arising out of the design, development, clinical testing and investigation, manufacture, labeling, distribution, sale, purchase, donation, dispensing, prescribing, administration, or use of a security countermeasure, or a qualified pandemic and epidemic product. The liability provision was added immediately before the bill was introduced, but does have a clause dealing with producers that knowingly manufacture a bad drug.

Subject: Drought Deepens Poverty From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 07:17:20 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/02/international/africa/02malawi.html?ex=1288587600&en=3156ac7c8bf4a226&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 2, 2005 Drought Deepens Poverty, Starving More Africans By MICHAEL WINES CHIKWAWA, Malawi - It has barely rained for a year, the scant corn harvest of six months ago is long exhausted and the regional hospital here is again filling with near-starving children - 18 admissions in August, 30 in September, 23 by mid-October. And what people here routinely call the hunger season - the season with no corn - has barely begun. 'We used to have six, seven children in the unit,' said Emily Sarina, the district nursing officer. 'We expect the number to increase by December, because that's when the hunger is critical.' Malawi is the epicenter of Africa's second hunger crisis in five months, and the second in which the developed world has responded with painful slowness. Drought is only the surface explanation for why millions of Malawians and other southern Africans are hungry. The real reason is poverty, aggravated by regional shortages and even Hurricane Katrina, which have helped drive up the price of corn, the regional staple, to more than double last year's. As a result, more than 4.6 million of Malawi's 12 million citizens need donated food to fend off malnutrition until the next harvest begins in April. In Zimbabwe, at least four million more need emergency food aid. Zambia's government has issued an urgent appeal for food, saying 1.7 million are hungry; 850,000 need food in Mozambique, 500,000 in Lesotho and at least 300,000 in Swaziland. The World Food Program, which will feed most of the needy, has asked the developed world for $400 million toward that goal. It remains $165 million short. The United States' contribution, $48 million worth of corn bought from American farmers, comes by ship and will not arrive until late this year at the earliest. Much like July's crisis on southern Niger's narrow band of grasslands, the food shortage in southern Africa is taking its toll. Growing malnutrition has led to scattered reports of disease-related deaths among young children weakened by hunger. That said, problems here are not yet as acute as they are in Niger, where thousands of malnourished children still flock to treatment centers, months after international aid began arriving. This region's emergency, however, is far larger - more than 12 million hungry people, versus 2.5 million in Niger. And if the death toll is likely not to be as high, the suffering here is no less real. 'I went to a village today in rural Zambia where there was a lady eating some kind of bark, in boiled water,' Michael Huggins, the World Food Program's regional spokesman, said in a telephone interview. 'In three years in southern Africa, I've heard a lot about that sort of thing. But I'd never seen it until today.' In Chikwawa, a district of about 400,000 in southern Malawi, half the population was already hungry in May, when the last harvest netted only about two-fifths of the nation's corn requirement. The British charity Oxfam estimated then that the district's needy were getting about 30 percent of their food requirements. Six months later, many are calling this Malawi's worst hunger crisis since 1993, when drought destroyed nearly half of the corn crop. 'At this point, most of the households in Malawi have run out of food, particularly in the south,' Schuyler Thorup, the Malawi representative for Catholic Relief Services, said in a telephone interview. 'They're having to rely exclusively on the market' for corn and other staple foods. But few can afford to pay market prices. Just 500 miles south of Malawi, South Africa is sitting atop a surplus of five million metric tons of corn from this year's bumper harvest. But it is mostly out of reach for both Malawi's government and its people, 60 percent of whom survive on a dollar a day or less. The same is true of most of Malawi's needy neighbors. War wrecked Mozambique's economy; socialism and plunging copper prices reduced Zambia to penury; Zimbabwe's economy collapsed after the government seized its richest farms, which were owned by whites. In Malawi, 20 years of shifting political rule and economic policies have turned an already poor nation into a basket case. The AIDS pandemic - the rate of infection is about 15 percent among all adults, but perhaps 25 percent in Chikwawa - has cut down family breadwinners and left 900,000 children without one or both parents. Most Malawians survive on plots of a couple of acres, often lacking even oxen for plowing. Irrigation is unheard of, leaving them dependent on good rains for survival. Lately, rains have been spotty. There were severe hunger crises in 2002 and 2003, and this year's disaster was brought on when good rains in late 2004 dried up in 2005, just as the corn crop was ripening. But even in good years, Malawians are incapable of feeding themselves. A recent report by the United States Agency for International Development said the nation 'is now in a near constant state of food shortage, with persistently high levels of nutritional deprivation.' Most Malawians cannot finance even a minimally adequate diet. Half of all children are stunted - and 40 percent of those are severely stunted, the marker of deep, prolonged malnutrition. Corn prices are at the root of this year's crisis. In the past, after most poor harvests, Malawians have bought cheap corn from traders in Mozambique, Zambia or Zimbabwe. This year's spotty rains caused a regional shortage, driving up prices in Malawi's markets. In mid-October last year, a kilogram of maize in Chikwawa, 2.2 pounds, cost about 13 cents. This year, it cost nearly 32 cents. Even Hurricane Katrina has worsened matters. When the storm closed New Orleans to shipping, depriving Japan of its normal source of corn, the Japanese turned to South Africa, and in weeks the price of South African corn in Malawi jumped nearly 20 percent. For months, the charities and international donor groups that effectively keep Malawi afloat operated on 'Scenario 1,' projecting that corn prices would remain affordable for most, and that the destitute would need only 272,000 metric tons of donated corn. Donors have pledged almost that much. But now, with prices skyrocketing, the number of Malawians who cannot afford food is rising as well. 'Scenario 2' calls for finding 413,000 metric tons of donated food, at considerably higher prices. Especially in the south, where harvests were the worst, high prices have brought growing malnutrition and sometimes unrest at sites where donors try to distribute too little food to too many desperate people. A recent visit to the rehabilitation center at the regional hospital in Chikwawa City, a hub of about 10,000 people, made it clear why. Camped on the sidewalk in the unit's square courtyard, 29-year-old Samson Hanock watched his 2-year-old son, Ben, while his wife, Ester, 20, cradled their newborn son, born at the unit in September. Ben was brought there from Mtobwe village, about two hours distant, with malnutrition and severe anemia. Mr. Hanock is a gardener. Working six days a week, four weeks a month, brings a salary of $6.65, from which his employer deducts $5.85 to buy the Hanocks a 110-pound bag of corn meal. Mr. Hanock spends the remaining 80 cents on sugar. 'I bake some sweets that I ask my wife to sell,' he said. 'And with that, we get some money to buy soap and other things.' Across the courtyard, Severia Karunga looked after Precia Yaka, a somber 9-year-old orphan from Badueza, 90 minutes away by car, who had come to the unit in July with malnutrition, malaria, edema and, it turned out, tuberculosis. Precia's father died four years ago. Her mother died at 21, a month after Precia arrived here. Ms. Karunga, Precia's aunt, now cares for Precia, her brother and her own seven children. She lives with her mother, who cares for two other orphaned children. 'My husband is divorcing me because he isn't happy that I am caring for this child,' she said, gesturing toward Precia. 'He left last month.' Mother, daughter and 11 children, ages 6 to 18, get by on less than $50 a month. Most comes from the $9 weekly salary the mother draws from a charity's self-help program. The family has an eight-acre garden, 'but this year,' Ms. Karunga said, 'I don't think I will be able to cultivate it, because I am spending all my time at this hospital.' Nationally, admissions of malnourished children to Malawi's 95 nutritional rehabilitation centers were up 15 percent in September from last year. Continuing increases are all but certain. Most children will spend a few weeks in rehabilitation, said Ms. Sarina, the district nursing officer. Then, healthy once more, they will be sent home. And the cycle will begin anew. 'The problem,' Ms. Sarina said, 'is that when they go back, there's nothing to depend on.'

Subject: Re: Drought Deepens Poverty From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 16:34:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Here is some irony, I have worked in Chikwawa. Remember I once said that Governments with possible food shortage risks should be forced to contribute towards putting footstock aside? In this way we would ensure they become more aware of their own situation and try prevent famine, rather than sit back begging every time a fragile region falls into trouble. Well here we have a perfect case scenario. Chikwawa is listed on the USAID famine early warning network. http://www.athaia.com/cgi-bin/tools/get-traffic.pl?link=http://images.google.com/images?q=Chikwawa&hl=en Now let's talk about ironies: Is it not ironic that these villagers are so heavily reliant on corn as their staple food? Yet corn is not indigenous to Africa. Corn was introduced by the Europeans who brought it from South America about as recent as 100 years ago. The mere fact that corn has become a traditional staple diet shows clearly that African populations have grown beyond their sustainability and have been consuming corn as it offers far more nutrition than their indigenous foods. Now even corn is not good enough. Perhaps our European forefathers did a huge dis-service by introducing this crop many years ago. Is it not ironic that this is the very same country that is suffering from deforestation? (your earlier post) There is a link between rainfall land water retention and deforestation. But as it turns out, I know this region relatively well. I worked on a project to install water wells in this very region. The ground water here is saline and its use is very limited (which explains why villagers prefer rain water). There is actually plenty ground water, in fact in relative proximity we have Lake Malawi which is the world's second largest inland body of water... Ironic that there is famine near a HUGE source of fresh water? Why not move the community closer to the lake and build channels, etc? We worked on a scheme to introduce boreholes and water pumps with special filters into the communities. The programme had been going on for a very long time and was carefully crafted (by various development agencies) so that the communities would put their own money aside to pay for the ongoing maintenance of the water pumps and thus ensure sustainability. The Ambassador of Japan came to Malawi on a ribbon cutting tour and offered the President of Malawi blanket assistance on any project of greater good to the people. The president responded off the cuff, boreholes, we need boreholes. With in a matter of weeks Japanese contractors had sunk over 10,000 boreholes in places we did not even know existed. Local communities now had free water (why would they buy into our program). Our World Bank funded program was instantly suspended. Within a matter of months, those water pumps fell into disrepair (hey that have to be consistently maintained) but there was absolutely no program for maintenance. Take a look at what they look like now: http://www.strath.ac.uk/projects/malawi/water.html So we are back to square one, and this time people are starving to death. So what should we do? Give emergency assistance and repeat this whole exercise only to see the situation worse in the future? I don't know the answer to this question. I do know that the d!ck head in government seems to have been finally kicked out. But the problem definatley started with the leadership of this country. Before we give assistance we should always ask - what are their leaders doing about it? I mean their leadership does not comprise of children, they do have working ministers, and government departments focused to this issue. Yet we appear to see the horrific situation, knee jerk into giving assistance and not ask how did their leadership allow this to happen. We don't seem to demand accountability from these leaders. It is disgraceful of us to perpetuate these problems, it is our fault that these people are starving because we are not demanding better from their leadership and we are instead only perpetuating this issue. When you have been to this place seen their smiling faces and now know that they are starving to death, I hope you can understand how this makes me so angry. Sorry if I went off the handle on this response.

Subject: Re: Drought Deepens Poverty From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 19:13:35 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Interesting; I am thinking about your comments.

Subject: Re: Drought Deepens Poverty From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 06:00:13 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Write down your interesting and important observations in journal form and you will have a document that is of considerable use.

Subject: Re: Drought Deepens Poverty From: Jennifer To: Emma Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 13:59:15 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Agreed; set down your ideas as you do here in a journal form and you will have a lot to teach.

Subject: Model Highlights Arctic's Vulnerability From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 06:09:29 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/science/earth/01warm_web.html October 31, 2005 New Climate Model Highlights Arctic's Vulnerability By ANDREW C. REVKIN If emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere at the current rate, there may be many centuries of warming and a near-total loss of Arctic tundra, according to a new climate study. Over all, the world would experience profound transformations, some potentially beneficial but many disruptive, and all at a pace rarely seen in nature, said the authors of the new study, which is being published on Tuesday in The Journal of Climate. 'The question is no longer whether we will need to address this problem, but when we will need to address the problem,' said Kenneth Caldeira, an author of the study and a climate expert at the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology, based at Stanford University. 'We can either address it now, before we severely and irreversibly damage our climate, or we can wait until irreversible damage manifests itself strongly,' Dr. Caldeira said. 'If all we do is try to adapt, things will get worse and worse.' The paper's lead author, Bala Govindasamy of the Energy Department's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said it might take 20 or 30 years before the scope of the human-caused changes becomes evident, but from then on there is likely to be no debate. The researchers ran a computer model that simulates both the climate system and the flow of heat-trapping carbon into the air in the form of carbon dioxide, then back into soils and the ocean. Most simulations of the potential human impact on climate have been confined to studying the next 100 years or so, but in this case the scientists started the calculations in 1870 and let the computers churn away through 2300. The authors stressed that the uncertainties were high over such a time span, and said the study was intended to illustrate broad consequences rather than project specific ones. In the simulation the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, on average, rose about 0.45 percent per year through 2300. That is slightly less than the current rate, about 0.5 percent. At that rate, the concentration of carbon dioxide doubles from pre-industrial levels in 2070, triples in 2120, and quadruples in 2160. The results are sobering, Dr. Caldeira and other climate experts said, because the computer model used in this study tends to produce less warming from a greenhouse-gas buildup than many of the other climate simulations being run by other research teams. It also presumes that plants and the ocean will continue to sop up carbon dioxide in the future, limiting the amount retained in the atmosphere. Many other independently developed models calculate that at some point, chemical and biological shifts caused by warming would reverse that flow and cause even more greenhouse gases to flood into the atmosphere. Consistent with many other studies, the model showed that the Arctic would see the most warming, with average annual temperatures in many parts of Arctic Russia and northern North America rising more than 25 degrees Fahrenheit around 2100. Antarctica would follow suit later, with temperatures there rising sharply around 2200. The impact on vegetation and landscapes would transform large areas of the earth. In the simulation, at least one ecosystem, the scrubby Arctic tundra largely vanishes as climate zones shift hundreds of miles north. Tundra would decline from about 8 percent of the world's land area to 1.8 percent. Alaska, in the model, loses almost all of its evergreen boreal forests and becomes a largely temperate state. But vast stretches of land that were once locked beneath permanent ice cover would open up. The area locked beneath ice would diminish from 13.3 percent of the planet's total land area to 4.8 percent. Conditions that nurture tropical and temperate forests could expand substantially, so that the two forest types could grow on nearly 65 percent of land surfaces instead of 44 percent now. But the pH of the oceans would fall because of a buildup of carbonic acid from dissolving carbon dioxide, eroding coral reefs and the shells of plankton and other marine life, Dr. Caldeira said. Several climate scientists not associated with the study said its main benefit was akin to the murky visions of possible futures experienced by Ebenezer Scrooge in 'A Christmas Carol.' 'It's a cautionary tale,' said Gerald A. Meehl, a climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who has conducted similar studies. 'The message is not to give up because the changes appear overwhelming, but instead the message should be the longer we wait to do something, the worse the consequences.'

Subject: What Is Organic? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 05:59:28 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/business/01organic.html?ex=1288501200&en=ae2c92b0feeb4ada&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss November 1, 2005 What Is Organic? Powerful Players Want a Say By MELANIE WARNER Customers at McDonald's restaurants in New England are about to get something a little different when they order coffee. Through a deal with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and Newman's Own, McDonald's will soon be serving a coffee that comes from organic beans and is certified Fair Trade because it meets higher standards in the treatment of coffee workers. The move, while still a test in a limited region, reflects a much broader trend: The growing interest among large food companies in offering organic foods along with their standard products. General Mills markets the Cascadian Farms and Muir Glen brands; Kraft owns Back to Nature and Boca Foods, which makes soy burgers. Within the last few years, Dean Foods, the dairy giant, has acquired Horizon Organic and White Wave, maker of Silk organic soymilk. Groupe Danone, the French dairy company, owns Stonyfield Farm. Wal-Mart wants in, too. 'We are particularly excited about organic food, the fastest-growing category in all of food,' Lee Scott, Wal-Mart's chief executive, said at a recent shareholder meeting. 'It's a great example of how Wal-Mart can appeal to a wider range of customers.' But as organic food enters the mainstream, evolving from an idealistic subculture rooted in images of granola and Birkenstocks, a bitter debate has ensued over what exactly the word 'organic' should mean. And now Congress is jumping into the controversy. With sales of roughly $12 billion, organic food remains a niche market within the $500 billion food industry. But the sector's growing appeal to consumers has fueled a 20 percent annual growth rate in recent years, making it highly attractive to food giants looking for gains in a slow-moving business. At General Mills, the Cascadian Farms and Muir Glen brands increased sales by 21 percent in the last year, according to the research firm Information Resources Inc., while the company's overall business was up just 1.6 percent. Consumer groups and some organic pioneers say they are concerned that the movement - a response to the practices of corporate food production that promotes a natural chemical-free approach to farming - will become watered down unless firm standards are maintained. The debate has been under way for several years. But last week, Senate and House Republicans on the Agriculture appropriations subcommittee inserted a last-minute provision into the department's fiscal 2006 budget specifying that certain artificial ingredients could be used in organic food. The Organic Trade Association, an industry lobbying group that proposed the amendment and spent several months pushing for its adoption, says that the measure will encourage the continued growth of organic food. Some advocacy groups, however, say the amendment will weaken federal organic food standards, first established under a 1990 law. Ronnie Cummins, national director of the Organic Consumers Association, calls the initiative a 'sneak attack engineered by the likes of Kraft, Dean Foods and Smucker's.' One of the lobbyists for Altria, Kraft's majority owner, Abigail Blunt - the wife of Representative Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri, who recently became interim House majority leader after Tom DeLay of Texas resigned from the post - has been working on the issue, the company says. Dean Foods' subsidiary Horizon Organic and the J. M. Smucker Company, the owner of Knudsen and Santa Cruz Organic juices, said they supported the work by the Organic Trade Association, which represents both large and small companies in the business, but did no lobbying on their own. The amendment injects Congress directly into the debate over whether certain artificial ingredients and industrial chemicals should be allowed in products labeled organic. In a lawsuit ruled upon in January, Arthur Harvey, an organic blueberry farmer, argued that no synthetics at all should be in food bearing the 'U.S.D.A. Organic' seal. A federal judge agreed, sending shivers down the spine of many organic food manufacturers. Katherine DiMatteo, executive director of the Organic Trade Association, said that the amendment was intended to protect the industry from the Harvey ruling and will not change the status quo. If applied, the judge's ruling would have forced many manufacturers to stop using the U.S.D.A. Organic seal and instead relabel products to state, for instance, 'cookies made with organic flour' or 'frozen lasagna made with organic tomatoes.' Many in the organic industry say they are willing to allow some use of synthetics in organic food. Since 2002, the National Organic Standards Board, a 15-member panel of advisers appointed by the Agriculture Department, has served as the gatekeeper for such substances. In that time, 38 have been approved, many of them relatively harmless ingredients like baking powder, pectin, ascorbic acid and carbon dioxide. But Joseph Mendelson, legal director at the Center for Food Safety, a liberal advocacy group, says that the proposed legislation will open the door to a range of other chemicals and artificial materials, including a large category of so-called food contact substances - things like boiler additives, disinfectants and lubricants with unpronounceable names. Most of these substances would not end up in finished products in detectable amounts. But many in the organic community say that these tools of mainstream food processing do not belong in organic production. 'We don't want organic food manufacturers having carte blanche use of the same kind of synthetics that conventional food processors use, especially when it involves things that do not appear on the ingredient panels,' said James A. Riddle, chairman of the National Organic Standards Board. 'I think people choose to buy organic food because they don't use all those things.' Ms. DiMatteo contends that the Organic Trade Association is not trying to loosen organic standards or take authority away from the standards board. At the same time, Charles Sweat, chief operating officer at Earthbound Farm, the country's largest grower of organic produce, said he was concerned with the section of the spending bill that gives the Agriculture Department authority to grant temporary exemptions to allow conventionally grown ingredients like corn, soybean oil or tomatoes in organic food when organic versions are not 'commercially available.' 'We see this as opening up a Pandora's box,' Mr. Sweat said. 'Any company that can't compete because something is too expensive could go to the secretary and claim they need an exemption.' George Simeon, chief executive of Organic Valley, a cooperative of mostly small organic dairy farmers, wrestled with the high cost of organic production a little over a year ago when Wal-Mart asked for a 20 percent price cut. For three years, Organic Valley had been Wal-Mart's primary supplier of organic milk. 'Wal-Mart allows you to really build market share,' Mr. Simeon said. 'But we're about our values and being able to sustain our farmers. If a customer wants to stretch us to the point where we're not able to deliver our mission, then we have to find different markets.' Mr. Simeon told Wal-Mart to get a new supplier. Dean Foods' Horizon Organic was better equipped to satisfy Wal-Mart's demands. Horizon gets about 20 percent of its production from a 4,000-cow organic dairy in Paul, Idaho, which is small in comparison with many conventional dairy farms but huge by organic standards. Mark Kastel, senior farm policy analyst at Cornucopia, a group representing small dairy farmers, contends that Horizon is able to run such a large farm because it dilutes organic principles. Earlier this year, his group filed a petition arguing that the Idaho farm crams too many cows into a confined area, where most of them do not graze on pasture but instead consume a high-grain diet. 'These factory farms are trying to cut corners,' Mr. Kastel said. 'When you feed more calorie-dense grains, you get more milk.' Horizon, which also buys milk from 305 family farms, says it is making changes and will divide its Idaho operation into two separate farms so that there will be three to five cows for each acre of pasture. 'We want to meet the regulations,' said Kelly O'Shea, Horizon's director of government and industry relations, 'and see integrity in the organic standards.' The National Organic Standards Board has been trying to persuade the Agriculture Department to clarify its vague rule that to produce organic milk, dairy cows, besides receiving only organic feed and avoiding growth hormones and antibiotics, must have 'access to pasture.' It wants to require that milk labeled organic come from cows that get at least 30 percent of their diet from pasture grass for a minimum of 120 days a year. Mr. Kastel of Cornucopia estimates that roughly 30 percent of the organic milk sold in the United States comes from cows that are not on pasture, most of them from two large dairies run by Aurora Organic Dairy, an offshoot of what was once the country's largest conventional dairy company. Organic milk is the most popular organic product and sells for up to twice the price of regular milk. On a recent visit to Aurora's farm in Platteville, Colo., at the foot of the Rocky Mountains, thousands of Holsteins were seen confined to grassless, dirt-lined pens and eating from a long trough filled with 55 percent hay and 45 percent grains, mostly corn and soybeans. Of the 5,200 cows on the farm, just a few hundred - those between milking cycles or near the end of their lactation - were sitting or grazing on small patches of pasture. Aurora executives say that despite the lack of pasture, their cows are 'very healthy and happy.' The 10 million gallons of milk the farm produces each year are supplied mainly to supermarkets and sold under store brands like Safeway Select, Kirkland at Costco and Archer Farms at Target. Mark Retzloff, president of Aurora Organic, said he did not agree with the National Organic Standards Board's proposed pasture rule, but added that he was planning to add 550 acres of grazing land to the farm. The company is also building a new dairy in a layout that Mr. Retzloff said would be conducive to putting thousands of cows on pasture and still milking them three times a day. Such tensions are likely to remain whatever the new legislation allows. Sheryl O'Laughlin, chief executive of Clif Bar, which makes organic energy bars, says that while the difficulty of operating organically and finding natural ingredients often ends up raising production costs, it is also what gives the category its purity and its appeal. 'The organic industry,' Ms. O'Laughlin said, 'has got to put pressure on itself to find alternative solutions.'

Subject: An Insult to Count Potemkin From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 05:37:23 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/ November 1, 2005 An Insult to Count Potemkin By Brad DeLong To say that whatever is good about the Bush administration's public image is the result of the tireless construction of Potemkin villages by the press corps would be an insult to Count Potemkin. Paul Krugman writes: Ending the Fraudulence: Let me be frank: it has been a long political nightmare.... [W]e realized early on that this administration was cynical, dishonest and incompetent, but spent a long time unable to get others to see the obvious. For others - above all, of course, those Americans risking their lives in a war whose real rationale has never been explained - the nightmare has been all too concrete.... What do I mean by essential fraudulence? Basically, I mean the way an administration with an almost unbroken record of policy failure has nonetheless achieved political dominance through a carefully cultivated set of myths. The record of policy failure is truly remarkable. It sometimes seems as if President Bush and Mr. Cheney are Midases in reverse: everything they touch - from Iraq reconstruction to hurricane relief, from prescription drug coverage to the pursuit of Osama - turns to crud. Even the few apparent successes turn out to contain failures at their core: for example, real G.D.P. may be up, but real wages are down.... [T]his administration's political triumphs have never been based on its real-world achievements... [but] on myths: the myth of presidential leadership, the ugly myth that the administration is patriotic while its critics are not. Take away those myths, and the administration has nothing left.... [T]he Bush administration has lost the myths that sustained its mojo, and with them much of its power to do harm. But the nightmare won't be fully over until... politicians... admit that they were misled... news media... face up to their role in allowing incompetents to pose as leaders and political apparatchiks to pose as patriots.... [T]he long nightmare won't really be over until journalists ask themselves: what did we know, when did we know it, and why didn't we tell the public?

Subject: Views on the coming $ crisis (by DeLong) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 04:42:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol2/iss5/art1

Subject: Re: Views on the coming $ crisis (by DeLong) From: Terri To: Yann Date Posted: Wed, Nov 02, 2005 at 12:27:26 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: International economists worry about the dollar, while domestic economists do not. Interesting.

Subject: Money Flow for Terri From: Johnny5 To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Nov 03, 2005 at 00:05:48 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: http://www.altassets.com/knowledgebank/surveys/2005/nz7198.php They invest here, we invest there - are we trying to kid each other? Global trends in venture capital: a close-up view 13/07/2005. US-based venture capitalists expect to expand their global investments, with China and India among their top targets, according to the Deloitte and NVCA 2005 Global Venture Capital Survey conducted jointly by Deloitte & Touche and the National Venture Capital Association. At the same time, the United States remains the most attractive investment target for venture capital firms worldwide. The money flows to the US - the US flows in into india/china - Johnny5 bought some Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund for this quarter along with some EWZ ETF always mindful that if things become unstable - the protectionists will get thier wish and then like the days of old - where the british invested in the USA during the hungry 1840's - the US States defaulted and the british investors were even written up in a book by Charles Dickens saying how worthless US investments were - hehe. The modern equivalent will be us sending all that money flow to chindia and building out thier countries and then they tell us they will not repay our investments.

Subject: Tough Christmas ahead From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 18:35:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The threat behind consumer spending The economy could take a huge hit, and soon, if the underlying spending trend doesn't strengthen. October 31, 2005: 3:46 PM EST NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Hurricanes can bury a lot of things, but don't let them bury a very important nugget in Monday's personal income and spending report: the consumer fell off a spending cliff in August and September! On the surface, the spending numbers look fine. Personal spending rose 0.5 percent last month, but when the effect of soaring oil and gas prices is removed to get a 'real' view of spending instead of a 'nominal' reading, then the number looks pretty anemic: real spending fell 0.4 percent in September after falling by 1 percent in August. And, given that consumer spending is about two-thirds of the economy, and given the way the government's economic math works, the economy's growth rate could actually turn negative in the fourth quarter if the consumer doesn't perk up quickly. 'Coming on the heels of a 1 percent drop in August, the two-month decline was the biggest in nearly 19 years and leaves the spending level at quarter-end well below the Q3 average,' economist Dave Resler at Nomura Securities wrote in a report Monday. 'For spending to match the third-quarter level -- thereby avoiding a decline -- real spending must grow at a 3.6 percent annual rate (about 0.3 percent each month). With car sales reportedly quite weak in October, this could prove to be a rather tall order.' Now, it's true that falling auto sales had a lot to do with this. Spending on durable goods (remember? Big-ticket items built to last three years or more?) fell by 2.4 percent in September after plunging 8.9 percent in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economics arm of the Commerce Department. (Full story.) Problem is that the early read from a lot of auto dealers this month has been another month of crummy sales. (Full story.) So there could more of this kind of weakness in the pipeline. What about spending on other stuff you say? Certainly people buy a lot more than cars. Yes they do and unfortunately, when you adjust again for inflation, mainly boosted by energy prices right now, you see that it's not just autos that consumers are shying away from. Purchases of 'non-durable' goods -- less durable items like clothing, books, DVDs, etc. -- fell by 1 percent in September after rising a mere 0.1 percent in August. Only spending on services was growing, and that's the category that includes visits to the doctor's office, lawyers' fees, financial services, etc.: up 0.3 percent in September on top of an increase of 0.2 percent the month before. Nomura's Resler says if the consumer fails to shift back into a higher spending gear, the Fed will take note, if not tomorrow, then surely in December at its final meeting of the year. 'Unless spending (primarily ex-autos) stages a rather convincing recovery in the next few weeks, the prospect of the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 15 years could factor into the December 13 FOMC decision,' Resler wrote, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-making arm. According to some economists, it all depends on the job market. 'Consumer spending is unlikely to slow by enough to materially harm the overall economy, if, as expected, the unemployment rate resumes its downward trend in 2006,' is the view of Jon Lonski of Moody's Investor's Service. A possible assist for the consumer could be shaping up in the steady drop in gas prices at the pump as the impact of the hurricanes pass and as crude oil prices fall back near $60 a barrel. (Full story.) The problem is, in the view of Dave Gilmore of FXA up in Connecticut, that the Fed is raising interest rates, bond yields are rising finally as a result, and if energy prices keep falling and give the consumer some relief -- and the economy a bounce -- that could encourage even more rate hikes. 'Yes, the U.S. consumer is quite vulnerable to rising market rates...the home ATM machine gets gummed up if rising mortgage rates lead to a correction in the U.S. housing market,' he said. Remember, the Fed has been raising short-term rates since June of 2004 but the long-term, bond-market rates that determine mortgage rates have stayed relatively low -- until the Fed's last rate hike in September. 'If bond yields keep rising which I think they will, then not even stocks are safe from a welcome decline in energy prices,' observes Gilmore. 'In this case lower energy prices could prove to be a Trojan horse unleashing a problematic rise in market rates.' --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN. Click here for more of her columns.

Subject: Krugman articles From: C Selby To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 12:38:32 (EST) Email Address: wolf10539@netscape.net Message: For those who don't want to join Time Select - you can go to Truthout.org and they have his articles there.

Subject: Re: Krugman articles From: im1dc To: C Selby Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 14:40:45 (EST) Email Address: im1dc@chartertn.net Message: Thanks for the headsup. The Truthout site is invaluable.

Subject: Hispanics Uncovering Roots From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 06:05:36 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/29/national/29religion.html?ex=1288242000&en=29038dd47b9d1460&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 29, 2005 Hispanics Uncovering Roots as Inquisition's 'Hidden' Jews By SIMON ROMERO HOUSTON - When she was growing up in a small town in southern Colorado, an area where her ancestors settled centuries ago when it was on the fringes of the northern frontier of New Spain, Bernadette Gonzalez always thought some of the stories about her family were unusual, if not bizarre. Her grandmother, for instance, refused to travel on Saturday and would use a specific porcelain basin to drain blood out of meat before she cooked it. In one tale that particularly puzzled Ms. Gonzalez, 52, her grandfather called for a Jewish doctor to circumcise him while he was on his death bed in a hospital in Trinidad, Colo. Only after Ms. Gonzalez moved to Houston to work as a lawyer and began discussing these tales with a Jewish colleague, she said, did 'the pieces of the puzzle' start falling into place. Ms. Gonzalez started researching her family history and concluded that her ancestors were Marranos, or Sephardic Jews, who had fled the Inquisition in Spain and in Mexico more than four centuries ago. Though raised in the Roman Catholic faith, Ms. Gonzalez felt a need to reconnect to her Jewish roots, so she converted to Judaism three years ago. 'I feel like I came home,' said Ms. Gonzalez, who now often uses the first name Batya. 'The fingerprints of my past were all around me, but I didn't know what they meant.' It is difficult to know precisely how many Hispanics are converting or adopting Jewish religious practices, but accounts of such embraces of Judaism are growing more common in parts of the Southwest. In Clear Lake, a suburb south of Houston, Rabbi Stuart Federow has overseen half a dozen conversions of Hispanics in recent years. In El Paso, Rabbi Stephen Leon said he had converted almost 40 Hispanic families since moving to Texas from New Jersey 19 years ago. These conversions are the latest chapter in the story of the crypto-Jews, or hidden Jews, of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, who are thought to be descended from the Sephardic Jews who began fleeing Spain more than 500 years ago. The story is being bolstered by recent historical research and advances in DNA testing that are said to reveal a prominent role played by crypto-Jews and their descendants in Spain's colonization of the Southwest. For more than two decades, anecdotal evidence collected by researchers in New Mexico, Colorado and Texas suggested that some nominally Catholic families of Iberian descent had stealthily maintained Jewish customs throughout the centuries, including lighting candles on Friday evening, avoiding pork and having the Star of David inscribed on gravestones. The whispers of hidden rituals coming from thoroughly Catholic communities were at times met with skepticism. One explanation for these seemingly Jewish customs was that evangelical Protestant sects active in the Southwest about a century ago had used Jewish imagery and Hebrew writing in their proselytizing, and that these symbols had become ingrained in isolated Hispanic communities. Skepticism aside, some rabbis view assistance to or conversions of crypto-Jews as a responsibility. 'The American Jewish community provided support in bringing Soviet, Albanian or Syrian Jews to the United States, and helping them in their transition,' said Rabbi Leon of Congregation B'nai Zion, a Conservative congregation in El Paso. 'I don't see how the crypto-Jews are any different.' Modern science may now be shedding new light on the history of the crypto-Jews after molecular anthropologists recently developed a DNA test of the male or Y chromosome that can indicate an ancestral connection to the Cohanim, a priestly class of Jews that traces its origin back more than 3,000 years to Aaron, the older brother of Moses. Family Tree DNA, a Houston company that offers a Cohanim test to its male clients, gets about one inquiry a day from Hispanics interested in exploring the possibility of Jewish ancestry, said Bennett Greenspan, its founder and chief executive. Mr. Greenspan said about one in 10 of the Hispanic men tested by his company showed Semitic ancestry strongly suggesting a Jewish background. (Another divergent possibility is that the test might suggest North African Muslim ancestry.) 'The results have just blown me over, reminding me of something out of Kaifeng,' Mr. Greenspan said, referring to the Chinese city of Kaifeng, where a small Jewish community persisted for about 1,000 years until the mid-19th century when it was almost completely assimilated. 'Lots of Hispanic people tell me they're interested in something Jewish and they can't explain it. Well, this helps explain it.' Not everyone who discovers Jewish ancestry, either through genealogical research or DNA testing, has decided to convert to Judaism, but some Hispanics who have found links still feel drawn to incorporate Jewish customs into their life. For instance, the Rev. William Sanchez, 52, a Catholic priest in Albuquerque, spent years researching his family's past in New Mexico before a DNA test three years ago showed that he almost certainly had the Jewish Cohanim marker. Since then, Father Sanchez has sought to educate his parishioners on the connections between Catholicism and Judaism, and has helped oversee the Nuevo Mexico Project, which tries to identify Sephardic ancestry among Hispanics from New Mexico. He has encouraged more than 100 of his parishioners to take DNA tests. Father Sanchez has also introduced some Jewish customs at St. Edwins Church in Albuquerque, where he serves; he blew the shofar, or ram's horn, this month during the Yom Kippur holiday. At another parish where he used to work in rural northeastern New Mexico, in the village of Villanueva, he would hold an annual Passover supper. 'I have a pluralistic, not an antagonistic, view of our religions,' Father Sanchez said. Still, others feel they have to make a clean break upon exploring their Jewish roots. John García, a lawyer in El Paso whose family moved to the United States two generations ago from northern Mexico, said he had heard stories since he was a boy that his family had a Sephardic Jewish past. He formally converted to Judaism in 2001 and last year had a bar mitzvah in El Paso, at the age of 53, together with five other crypto-Jews. These days Mr. García, a lawyer in the public defender's office in El Paso, never works on the Sabbath and is an active member of Temple Mount Sinai, a Reform congregation in El Paso. 'I've had to go beyond my comfort level in something I would call a reversion rather than a conversion,' Mr. García said. 'There were an intervening 400 years when my family had become Catholic, but something about Judaism, I don't know exactly what it was, was kept alive.'

Subject: Why Race Isn't as 'Black' and 'White' From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 05:54:25 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/opinion/31mon4.html?ex=1288414800&en=d17f0afc17386acd&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 31, 2005 Why Race Isn't as 'Black' and 'White' as We Think By BRENT STAPLES People have occasionally asked me how a black person came by a 'white' name like Brent Staples. One letter writer ridiculed it as 'an anchorman's name' and accused me of making it up. For the record, it's a British name - and the one my parents gave me. 'Staples' probably arrived in my family's ancestral home in Virginia four centuries ago with the British settlers. The earliest person with that name we've found - Richard Staples - was hacked to death by Powhatan Indians not far from Jamestown in 1622. The name moved into the 18th century with Virginians like John Staples, a white surveyor who worked in Thomas Jefferson's home county, Albemarle, not far from the area where my family was enslaved. The black John Staples who married my paternal great-great-grandmother just after Emancipation - and became the stepfather of her children - could easily have been a Staples family slave. The transplanted Britons who had owned both sides of my family had given us more than a preference for British names. They had also given us their DNA. In what was an almost everyday occurrence at the time, my great-great-grandmothers on both sides gave birth to children fathered by white slave masters. I've known all this for a long time, and was not surprised by the results of a genetic screening performed by DNAPrint Genomics, a company that traces ancestral origins to far-flung parts of the globe. A little more than half of my genetic material came from sub-Saharan Africa - common for people who regard themselves as black - with slightly more than a quarter from Europe. The result that knocked me off my chair showed that one-fifth of my ancestry is Asian. Poring over the charts and statistics, I said out loud, 'This has got to be a mistake.' That's a common response among people who are tested. Ostensibly white people who always thought of themselves as 100 percent European find they have substantial African ancestry. People who regard themselves as black sometimes discover that the African ancestry is a minority portion of their DNA. These results are forcing people to re-examine the arbitrary calculations our culture uses to decide who is 'white' and who is 'black.' As with many things racial, this story begins in the slave-era South, where sex among slaves, masters and mistresses got started as soon as the first slave ship sailed into Jamestown Harbor in 1619. By the time of the American Revolution, there was a visible class of light-skinned black people who no longer looked or sounded African. Free mulattos, emancipated by guilt-ridden fathers, may have accounted for up to three-quarters of the tiny free-black population before the Revolution. By the eve of the Civil War, the swarming numbers of mixed-race slaves on Southern plantations had become a source of constant anguish to planters' wives, who knew quite well where those racially ambiguous children were coming from. Faced with widespread fear that racial distinctions were losing significance, the South decided to define the problem away. People with any ascertainable black ancestry at all were defined as black under the law and stripped of basic rights. The 'one drop' laws defined as black even people who were blond and blue-eyed and appeared white. Black people snickered among themselves and worked to subvert segregation at every turn. Thanks to white ancestry spread throughout the black community, nearly every family knew of someone born black who successfully passed as white to get access to jobs, housing and public accommodations that were reserved for white people only. Black people who were not quite light enough to slip undetected into white society billed themselves as Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, South Asian, Native American - you name it. These defectors often married into ostensibly white families at a time when interracial marriage was either illegal or socially stigmatized. Those of us who grew up in the 1950's and 60's read black-owned magazines and newspapers that praised the racial defectors as pioneers while mocking white society for failing to detect them. A comic newspaper column by the poet Langston Hughes - titled 'Why Not Fool Our White Folks?' - typified the black community's sense of smugness about knowing the real racial score. In keeping with this history, many black people I know find it funny when supposedly white Americans profess shock at the emergence of blackness in the family tree. But genetic testing holds plenty of surprises for black folks, too. Which brings me back to my Asian ancestry. It comes as a surprise, given that my family's oral histories contain not a single person who is described as Asian. More testing on other family members should clarify the issue, but for now, I can only guess. This ancestry could well have come through a 19th-century ancestor who was incorrectly described as Indian, often a catchall category at the time. The test results underscore what anthropologists have said for eons: racial distinctions as applied in this country are social categories and not scientific concepts. In addition, those categories draw hard, sharp distinctions among groups of people who are more alike than they are different. The ultimate point is that none of us really know who we are, ancestrally speaking. All we ever really know is what our parents and grandparents have told us.

Subject: Re: Why Race Isn't as 'Black' and 'White' From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 15:14:21 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: What an amazing story. The last paragraph sums it up beautifully. Hhhmm perhaps we should make it mandatory for EVERYONE to get this test. I believe many of those 'hick' racists would seriously review their opinions when they find out that they have African blood, or their close family members have Arfican blood... or even worse Arab blood.

Subject: Malawi Is Burning From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 05:52:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/01/international/africa/01malawi.html November 1, 2005 Malawi Is Burning, and Deforestation Erodes Economy By MICHAEL WINES MALOSA, Malawi - Lovely and lissome, the masuku tree rises maybe 35 feet at maturity, its wood the hue of a rare steak, its branches dotted with sweet golfball-size fruits that ferment into a tasty wine. Working just after sunrise atop a small mountain not far from here, Injes Juma and his nine friends needed less than five minutes to sever a masuku at its base and send it crashing to the ground. Another five minutes of furious hacking with axes and machetes reduced the tree to a stack of five-foot logs, ready to be carried down the steep grade to the highway below. Mr. Juma and his friends are loggers, members of a vast fraternity that has illegally laid waste to half this nation, mostly in the last 15 years, all to hawk firewood and charcoal at roadside stands. Because of them, experts say, Malawi loses nearly 200 square miles of its forests annually, a deforestation rate of 2.8 percent that the Southern Africa Development Community says is one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. The cutting blights a pastoral, sometimes breathtaking landscape. It dries up streams, pollutes the air, lowers the water table, erodes the soil and silts rivers so badly that, officials here say, hydroelectric plants are blacked out by the gunk. It is hard to think of many other things that Mr. Juma and his fellow loggers could do that would damage the nation more. The problem is that it is hard to think of many other ways that Mr. Juma and his fellow loggers could make a living, period. 'The problem is that we have nothing else to do,' said Mr. Juma, a wiry 33-year-old with a neon green shirt tied around his bare waist, standing over the remains of the chopped-up masuku. 'We have no money to raise our families. We have nowhere to run, nothing else to do. So we have to cut the trees to feed our families.' In few places do the dictates of modern environmentalism butt so painfully against economic reality as they do here in Malawi. Two-thirds of the nation's 12 million people earn less than a dollar a day, according to the United Nations Human Development report. Nine-tenths of those two-thirds live in rural areas where both jobs and the odds of escaping poverty are nonexistent. For hundreds of thousands of those rural dwellers, sales of firewood and charcoal provide virtually their only income. Wood and charcoal are the preferred cooking and heating fuels in Malawi, even in the poorer parts of cities, and the demand is huge: the World Bank estimated in 2001 that charcoal consumption alone was twice what the nation's woodlands could sustain without further deforestation. Indeed, loggers illegally clear 100 square miles of forest each year just to meet the demand for charcoal, the government says. Yet the income - less than $8 million a year nationwide, by official estimates - is pitifully meager, as Mr. Juma's band of loggers can testify. A single masuku tree, felled and cut into logs and branches, brings about 2,000 kwacha, or about $15 at current exchange rates, when all has been sold. A bundle of three or four branches sold by the roadside brings about 15 cents; a thick five-foot section of trunk, up to $1.50. Mr. Juma and his fellow loggers say they cut about 15 trees a year, the most the group can sell in a region where dozens of wood vendors line the main street of every town. That provides an income, on average, of about $20 a month. That $20 must support the 10 men, their 8 wives and 16 children - 34 people in all. Whatever else they have comes from casual labor as gardeners, for about 40 cents a day, or from the vegetable plots outside their one-room huts, just off the main road linking Blantyre and Lilongwe, Malawi's two main cities. 'Sometimes we just do without food because the money doesn't last a month,' said Kabaitha Langwan, a gray-stubbled, 52-year-old logger clad in a red T-shirt bearing the words 'surf extreme.' 'We lack money even for soap and bathing.' 'It's a lot of hard work for very little money,' said one forester, an expert who is working under a foreign government grant to reduce illegal logging. 'Nobody does it by choice. But they have very few options.' In theory, at least, Malawi's impoverished millions could benefit by saving the woods instead of clearing them. Some studies indicate that the income from forest beehives and their honey can exceed the profit from firewood sales. Practitioners of traditional medicine scrupulously tend their patches of wood to maintain supplies of forest mushrooms and exotic plants used in home remedies. More than that, simple math shows that Malawians could cook their food far more cheaply using electricity - if it were available - than by buying and burning wood or charcoal. But only 2 percent of Malawians are hooked to the electrical grid, and for the rest, merely the cost of plugging in - buying a meter, and buying a stove with which to cook - makes electricity a pipe dream. Only so many beehives can fit into a forest. And all the arguments about the long-term benefits of woodlands pale beside the relentless need to find the next day's meal. And so along the main road, almost all the hills have been shaved of their leafy canopies of trees, leaving behind a rocky bristle of scrub and dirt. Plumes of smoke curl skyward from behind the peaks, the signatures of charcoal makers at work. More than a fifth of Malawi's forests vanished between 1990 and 2000 alone, the World Bank says, and 23 species of trees are considered to be endangered. In many places, the biggest patches of untouched woods are the ones that protect community graveyards. Michael Pathungo, the assistant forestry officer in Malawi's southern region, said the nation's heavily populated southern half has now lost up to four-fifths of its tree cover. 'The rate of cutting is dwindling,' he said, grasping for a shred of good news, 'because there are no more forests.'

Subject: Re: Malawi Is Burning From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 14:33:20 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Let's put the entire rest of the world aside just for a short while and look at the facts in this particular story: '..the World Bank estimated in 2001 that charcoal consumption alone was twice what the nation's woodlands could sustain...' '...electricity a pipe dream. ..' '...A single masuku tree, felled and cut into logs and branches, brings about 2,000 kwacha, or about $15 at current exchange rates,...' '...$20 must support the 10 men, their 8 wives and 16 children - 34 people in all....' '...'Sometimes we just do without food because the money doesn't last a month,' said Kabaitha Langwan, a gray-stubbled, 52-year-old logger...' Just from those clauses we can see that the population level has totally outstripped any sustainability. This presents a few issues: 1. How did it get to this level? 2. What can be done to change the situation? Care to make suggestions? 1. If you consider Africans have been living in harmony with nature for over 50,000 years and now only in recent times we face this problem? I firmly believe this problem has come about since the white man came to Africa and from a good natured humanitarian deed, inoculate babies against basic disease but radically changed human demographics and introduced a population explosion that we face today. From this point of view, I have a lot of reservation as to what the Christian organizations are doing in Africa - even though it is done with good intentions. 2. To solve the problem, throwing money at it won't work. These people must either have less children (which may not be the answer either) or they must come into the 21st century (use electricity). Coming into the 21st century affectively means abandoning their tribal ways and adopting new lifestyles that can afford electricity. This is not an ethical concept as it implies imposing our morals and cultures on them. Hhhmm which ever way we look at it - it just don't look good. You have any suggestions?

Subject: Re: Malawi Is Burning From: Jennifer To: Mik Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 16:58:29 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Interesting comment for me to think through. This is a difficult problem. Remember Jared Diamond?

Subject: Suggestions? From: Mik To: Jennifer Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 17:15:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Are you up for discussing this with suggestions? (and no arguments just friendly sharing of views)

Subject: Re: Suggestions? From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 19:11:50 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Darn, I really have no suggestions whether arguing or agreeing. I am simply thinking of the problem.

Subject: Australia May Hold Key to Pensions From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 05:03:45 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://money.guardian.co.uk/pensions/story/0,6453,1325200,00.html October 12, 2004 Australia May Hold Key to Pensions By Patrick Collinson - Guardian The publication today of the Adair Turner report on pensions will prompt an orgy of headlines about how millions of Britons face pension misery. Yet one country grasped the nettle of pension reform a decade ago and pension misery is no longer part of the national psyche. In the 1980s Australia faced the same dilemma as Britain - an ageing population, too few people saving and a state pension withering on the vine. Less than half the population, especially women and minorities, were part of a company pension scheme. Today 95% of full-time employees in Australia have a company pension, compared with half in Britain. Approaching three-quarters of part-time workers have a pension, compared with less than 15% in the UK. And since the mid-1980s, Australia's nine million workers have seen the value of their pension assets soar from A$30bn (£12.2bn) to nearly A$600bn today. At the heart of Australia's pension system are compulsory employer contributions, brought in by a Labor government in 1992 and backed by unions, but strongly opposed at the time by small business groups. In 1992, every business in Australia was ordered to put aside 3% of each employee's salary into a superannuation scheme. The contribution rate was started at a low level then increased to hit its target of 9% in 2002, where it remains today. Employees were encouraged through tax incentives to pay into the schemes, known as 'the super'. Employers have to pay the 9% contribution for anybody between 18 and 70 who earns above A$450 a month. The self-employed are outside the scheme but are offered a raft of tax concessions to encourage them to join. On average, workers have chipped in an extra 2-3% of salary, meaning that the typical employee now has 12% of their earnings going into a private pension pot, usually made up of a mix of shares, bonds and property. The Australian government estimates that by saving 12% a year over a 40-year working life, each Australian will now retire on an income of about 40% of their pre-retirement salary. Somebody earning a typical salary of $50,000 a year will retire on $20,000 a year company pension plus an entitlement to a means-tested state pension. The so-called supers have emerged from the global bear market largely unscathed, earning their members investment returns of around 7%-8% a year. Resistance from employers to 'the super' has largely crumbled and Australians are much less fearful than the British about their prospects in old age. David Harris, a pensions policy adviser to the Australian Labor government in the early 90s and one of the architects of the compulsory system, said: 'Australia then was just like Britain still is today. Company pensions were middle class, middle-aged and male. Our main concern was how to establish a pension for younger people, women and minorities. It's not flawless but it's largely worked.' Mr Harris joined British actuarial consultancy Watson Wyatt and has now set up his own independent consultancy, Tor, promoting pension reform. 'On a Friday night in this country you know that the vast majority of young people go out on the town spending their wages without a thought to their pension. Their money is literally being pissed up against the wall. Australians are the same, but I know that when they go home every one of them has got a pension account.' Yet any suggestion in the Adair report today that Britain should follow the Australians into a compulsory model will be stamped on by the pensions industry and employer groups. Critics say compulsion in Australia has failed; that the country's overall savings level has dropped since compulsion was introduced, that it does not provide an adequate level of retirement income, that it has hurt the economy and that, in any case, the demographics of Australia are so different that it cannot provide a model for the UK. Many point instead to the US 401K tax incentives model as the future for Britain. Ros Altmann, a governor at the London School of Economics, said: 'There's no clear evidence the Australian model has worked. The savings ratio has reduced since compulsion was introduced.' The TUC [British Trades Union Congress] says it is a myth that the savings rate in Australia has fallen and Mr Harris accuses 'vested interests' of blocking a proper debate on compulsion in Britain.

Subject: An Apple a Day for Health? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 05:01:21 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/business/31choco.html?ex=1288414800&en=d40e72f596d2391c&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 31, 2005 An Apple a Day for Health? Mars Recommends Two Bars of Chocolate By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO ALBANY, Ga. - Treat, or trick? After more than a decade of effort and a year of anticipation, Mars Inc. is finally rolling into stores with what it says is a healthy new sweet: a line of chocolate bars and chocolate-covered almonds. The new confections, called CocoaVia, are produced at a factory here and serve as the centerpiece of a corporate quest to transform chocolate into a healthy indulgence. Here, chocolate is everywhere: a sweet and full aroma wafts from the conveyer belt; a machine drizzles milk chocolate onto dark-coated clusters in zigzag fashion; bars wade through a shallow river of liquid chocolate. But it is the glob of granola, rice and flavanol-filled cocoa powder at the heart of the bar made here - injected with a burst of liquid-canola plant sterols - that distinguishes CocoaVia from the company's M&M's, Snickers and Dove bars. Flavanols are naturally occurring chemicals in cocoa that have antioxidant qualities; sterols are plant-based chemicals found in a variety of foods. Flavanols are what set Mars on a scientific search: if it could show that they helped improve blood flow and lower blood pressure, then foods with them could potentially help prevent heart disease. In developing CocoaVia, Mars decided to add another major additive, plant sterols, which ultimately allowed it to make the claim that CocoaVia is good for hearts and arteries. And that is one reason Mars is placing them in the health food aisles - near nutrition bars rather than candy - of retailers like Wal-Mart and Target. Indeed, CocoaVia packages even encourage consumers to eat two servings a day to achieve the 'maximum benefit.' Only time will tell whether consumers will fall for CocoaVia; early signs suggest it may take a while. But the tale of how Mars endeavored for years to find the right formula illustrates the trials and tribulations of a company that set out with good intentions but now feels itself under siege as competitors swarm to take advantage of its discoveries. 'Heart disease is the No. 1 killer in the world, and chocolate is the No. 1 favorite ingredient in the world,' said Jim Cass, Mars's vice president of marketing. 'When you put those two giant macro trends together, we know this is a big idea.' Some nutritionists are skeptical, though, saying that the effort seems less of a breakthrough than a sly way to scare up chocolate sales. CocoaVia products, some previously sold on the Internet, have between 80 and 140 calories apiece, depending on the variety, and 2 to 11 grams of fat. At two servings a day, that adds up to as much as 280 calories for the chocolate-covered almonds - equivalent to the calories in a two-ounce Snickers bar. 'That is serious calories,' said Alice H. Lichtenstein, a Tufts University professor who is chairwoman of the nutrition committee of the American Heart Association. 'We can only hope that the consumer is smart enough to realize that you can't just add something on top of what you are normally eating - even if it is good for you - because you are going to gain weight.' Marlene Machut, a Mars spokeswoman, calls the calorie level in CocoaVia 'nutritionally responsible.' Lately, Mars has more than nutritionists haunting it. CocoaVia started hitting the shelves last month - packaged in boxes of five for about $5 a box - just as some of Mars's chief competitors, the Hershey Company and Nestlé, have been repackaging items to banner the presence of 'natural flavanol antioxidants.' During a talk with analysts this month, Richard H. Lenny, the chief executive of Hershey, called the dark chocolate category a 'major growth platform.' He told of a new Yale University study - sponsored by Hershey and yet to be peer-reviewed - that found that eating Hershey's Extra Dark chocolate improved blood pressure and blood flow because of the candy's higher level of natural flavanol antioxidants. In the study, 45 people were fed 2.6 ounces (two servings) of Extra Dark, which also contained 420 calories. 'These results enable us to better communicate with consumers the positive aspects of antioxidants and dark chocolate,' Mr. Lenny said. Such claims are troubling to Harold Schmitz, Mars's chief scientist and one of the driving forces behind the development of CocoaVia. He said that competitors were potentially misleading consumers by talking about antioxidants in chocolate when it was the level and kind of flavanols that really made a difference. David L. Katz, a Yale professor of public health who wrote the Hershey-funded study, disagreed that flavanols were the only beneficial agents at work. 'Dark chocolate may be conferring vascular benefits via several pathways,' he said. Bonnie Liebman, nutrition director at the Center for Science in the Public Interest, says when it comes to flavanols, 'the marketing is getting ahead of the science.' She noted that two recent studies found no link between flavanols and lower risk of breast cancer or heart disease. Stephanie Moritz, a Hershey spokeswoman, denied that the company was exploiting the excitement over flavanols, and said that a range of studies had linked dark chocolate to health benefits for the heart. Flavanols are bitter-tasting, so candy companies usually strip them from chocolate. After Dr. Schmitz and his team found that certain flavanols could improve blood flow and lower blood pressure, Mars added sugar and milk chocolate to some bars to improve the taste. In mid-2000, Mars officials presented a prototype of a chocolate bar with higher levels of flavanols to the Mars Nutrition Research Council, an outside advisory board. Initially, many on the council were skeptical that Mars was doing anything more than trying to pass off a candy product as healthy, said John W. Erdman Jr., the council's executive director and the chairman of nutrition research at the University of Illinois. In the beginning, the chief concern was calories; early prototypes had as many as other chocolate bars. Ultimately, the advisory board set an upper limit of 100 calories per bar. The Mars product development team finally hit the mark, engineering the original chocolate crunch bar down to only 80 calories. For the retail introduction, Mars added products with higher calorie levels. Unable to nail down specific heart-healthy levels of flavanols, Mars scientists decided to hedge their bets by adding plant sterols, which the Food and Drug Administration has said can lower cholesterol by as much as 10 percent. The recommendation to eat two CocoaVia bars a day relates to this claim. But consuming more plant sterols - which can also be found in some orange juice, margarine and yogurt - will not necessarily bring additional health benefits, Dr. Lichtenstein said. 'If people are taking these plant sterols to reduce their cholesterol every day,' she said, 'they should find some other vehicle than chocolate that doesn't come with a healthy dose of calories.' CocoaVia is hardly flying off the shelves. In a spot-check of five New Jersey Wal-Mart stores, where the product has been available for about a month, store clerks said that only a handful of boxes had been sold. Mars says it plans more healthful offerings. It recently established a separate division to develop nutritional foods and drinks aimed at weight management and 'energy and performance,' said Mr. Cass, the marketing chief. 'This was never about, 'How do we sell more chocolate?' ' he said. 'We just happened to start with chocolate because we had intellectual property around cocoa. Over time we will look to fulfill the needs of our consumers that expand well beyond chocolate.'

Subject: Small Internet Providers Choose Wi-Fi From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 04:58:04 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/technology/31wifi.html October 31, 2005 To Battle the Telephone Giants, Small Internet Providers Choose Wi-Fi as a Weapon By MATT RICHTEL and KEN BELSON With cable providers and the Bell telephone companies dominating the market for residential high-speed Internet service, smaller Internet access providers are desperately trying to find a new way to connect with consumers. They say they may have found it in wireless technology that avoids the need to build expensive underground networks. The most prominent example is EarthLink, once a leader in dial-up Internet service. The company made a big leap into the wireless market this month when it won the right from Philadelphia to provide inexpensive Wi-Fi Internet connections citywide. Last week, the company also won an exclusive franchise to build a wireless network for the city of Anaheim, Calif. The wireless option is attractive because it does not require building or leasing costly underground lines, and the cost of Wi-Fi equipment and installation is falling rapidly, said Donald B. Berryman, president of a new division of EarthLink, called EarthLink Municipal Networks. 'There is so much going on' in the wireless market, Mr. Berryman said. 'We see this as a huge opportunity to grow our business.' As part of the agreement with Philadelphia, EarthLink obtained public rights-of-way to build a wireless network covering the city's 135 square miles. The company will pay the construction costs, which Mr. Berryman said could be as little as $10 million, compared with the hundreds of millions of dollars EarthLink would have to spend to lay copper or fiber cables for a conventional broadband network. EarthLink is not alone in betting on Wi-Fi. Many smaller telecommunications players are bidding for Wi-Fi contracts with big cities like Minneapolis and New York, which are eager to attract new businesses, give residents alternatives to the cable and phone companies and make it possible for lower-income residents to get an Internet link. In smaller cities like Grand Haven, Mich., and Rio Rancho, N.M., start-ups like Azulstar Networks have struck out on their own, obtaining right-of-way agreements. In San Francisco, Google is considering building a free citywide network. Google would make money by selling advertising that reached the Wi-Fi users. The Philadelphia network, which EarthLink hopes to complete by next year, will operate in a mesh of Wi-Fi access points, or hot spots, like those found in airports and cafes. High-capacity data connections to the Internet will be beamed from central offices to smaller Wi-Fi antennas on streets, in parks and atop buildings. The antennas, which have a range of about 600 feet, are positioned so that the signals overlap to prevent dropped connections when users move from one hot spot to another and to ensure that signals reach inside buildings. Even with municipal Wi-Fi contracts, smaller Internet providers face an uphill battle against the likes of Comcast and Verizon, which have huge marketing budgets, bundles of products that include voice, video and television, and the ability to sharply cut prices. And wireless networks are far from perfect. Though several times faster than dial-up services, they are still slower than conventional cable or D.S.L. broadband connections. They are also vulnerable to privacy and security problems. In hilly cities, coverage can be spotty. And heavy network use can slow connection speeds. 'It's an opportunity for the EarthLinks and AOL's of the world to generate new revenue,' said Patrick Zerbib, an industry analyst at Adventis, a telecommunications consultancy. 'But it's unclear whether the new Wi-Fi business can offset the decline in their other businesses.' Even so, the Bells and cable companies are fighting wireless incursions into their territory. They see the municipal projects - or anything that circumvents their expensive and extensive in-ground networks - as a threat. They are lobbying state and federal lawmakers to curtail publicly funded networks, arguing that publicly sanctioned services could deter the Bells from investing in their own networks. But for providers like EarthLink, there's little choice but to forge ahead. On Oct. 20, the company said the number of its dial-up customers fell 8.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with the same period in 2004. EarthLink, however, said it expected the Philadelphia project to give the company a lift. Mr. Berryman said EarthLink would charge Philadelphians about $20 a month to use the service. Under the company's agreement with the city, low-income residents will be offered discounted service at $10 a month (the city will determine eligibility for the discount). The speed for the service, at around 1 megabit per second to download information, is about a quarter the speed of most cable broadband connections. Because of that, Mr. Berryman does not expect these connections to displace the cable and phone companies. Instead, he said, EarthLink wants to get faster Internet connections to people with dial-up access or no connections at all. The Bells and cable companies, however, are setting their sights on those customers, too. Verizon and SBC, for instance, now sell broadband service for as little as $14.95 a month, 25 percent less than EarthLink plans to charge in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Cablevision and other cable companies are bundling their digital phone and television services with superfast data lines. Some companies say they wonder whether cheap wireless broadband makes financial sense. T-Mobile, which operates the world's largest collection of Wi-Fi hot spots, did not bid on the Philadelphia project because it felt it would have a hard time making money on it. Despite the financial challenge, some fledgling providers are moving ahead. The start-up Azulstar has been selling wireless Internet connections for the past year in Grand Haven, which covers about six square miles. Customers can get a connection for $19.95 a month, just a few dollars more than SBC's lowest-priced plan, which is faster. With an encrypted password, customers can log on to the Internet almost anywhere in the city, according to Azulstar's chief financial officer, Les Lewis. Mr. Lewis declined to say how many subscribers Azulstar had signed up, but he said that wireless providers could compete with the Bells and cable companies by offering Internet phone and other services. 'It's not just going to be an Internet connection, but it's going to be like electricity where people develop more than light bulbs,' he said. NeoReach Wireless, a subsidiary of the MobilePro Corporation, which is based in Bethesda, Md., took a different tack. The company has created a wholesale wireless network that other companies can lease. The local cable provider, Cox Communications, is considering becoming a customer in Tempe, Ariz., said John T. von Harz, a vice president at NeoReach. For some companies, building a wireless network is a means to an end, not an end in itself. Google, for example, recently bid on a Wi-Fi project in San Francisco. Its executives said the company wanted to help start-ups and other companies move into the Internet access business. Google also wants to see if it can support, or at least subsidize, its Wi-Fi business by getting local companies to pay a premium to advertise to people who are logged on to a Google hot spot. A person sitting at a cafe surfing the Web on a laptop, for instance, might receive ads for a nearby business. Despite Google's ambition, Chris Sacca, the head of the company's municipal Wi-Fi effort, said it was 'very hard to say' whether wireless networks would spawn a new generation of providers capable of challenging the phone and cable giants. For independent Internet providers facing the Bells and cable companies, the only choice may be to take the plunge and find out.

Subject: There Isn't Any Big Idea From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 04:54:48 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/11/29/reviews/981129.29marcust.html November 29, 1998 Both Fox and Hedgehog: Isaiah Berlin's Big Idea was That There Isn't Any Big Idea. By STEVEN MARCUS ISAIAH BERLIN A Life. By Michael Ignatieff. When Isaiah Berlin died last year, obituary notices on both sides of the Atlantic were long, appreciative and respectful. Not all of them, however. Snipings from the ideological left and right made it clear that this philosopher and historian of ideas, who was also the chief voice of liberalism in the second half of the 20th century, would not depart unscathed. They were a reminder, too, that the middle ground on which classical modern liberalism stands is narrower now than most of us suppose, that it has shrunk as it has been contested, and that liberalism is indeed an embattled perspective. Such an observation would have come as no surprise to Berlin. As he conceived of it, this view of the world included philosophical doctrines, political convictions and social theories about what constituted being human. He also referred to it as pluralism, and he never tired of setting it forth. In essay after essay, he delineated it as a minority view, standing outside of, and resisting and confronting, the mainstream of the Western tradition of philosophical beliefs. That tradition was, according to Berlin's spirited accounts and summaries, formed in two heroic episodes: the first embodied by Plato and the classical Greeks; the second, the grand modern resumptions of the mathematical and scientific revolutions of the 17th century, played through in the philosophical and social theories of the Enlightenment. A number of interconnected presuppositions are organized into this mighty intellectual fabric. First, as in the natural sciences, ''all genuine questions must have one true answer''; in Berlin's amiable formulation, the answers must be true for everyone, everywhere, all the time. Second, a reproducible path toward the discovery of these truths must be in principle accessible to everyone. Third, ''the true answers, when found, must necessarily be compatible with one another and form a single whole.'' To be sure, opinions differed dramatically on how to find the right way: some found it in churches, others in laboratories; some trusted in intuition, others in experiment; some invested in visions, others in mathematics. All shared the fundamental belief that there is a system that weaves everything together. As Berlin remarked in a characteristic passage of galloping hyperbole: ''The answers must be known to someone: perhaps Adam in Paradise knew; perhaps we shall only reach them at the end of days; if men cannot know them, perhaps the angels know; and if not the angels, then God knows. These timeless truths must in principle be knowable.'' Ultimately the grand narrative of culture and history would progress to the best of all possible worlds. Berlin himself was trained in one prominent configuration of this perennial philosophy. At Oxford, he internalized the British empirical tradition and at first associated himself with the early formation of modern analytic and linguistic philosophy. A. J. Ayer, J. L. Austin and Stuart Hampshire were among colleagues and friends. But even before then, his cultural identity prepared him for the radical liberation that Enlightenment thought has regularly effected. Born in Riga, Latvia, in 1909 to a Jewish bourgeois family that moved first to St. Petersburg and then in 1921 to London, where it had business interests, this champion of philosophical minorities and oddballs knew the tradition intimately from the inside. Berlin's life as we read it in ''Isaiah Berlin,'' Michael Ignatieff's authorized biography, was an uninterrupted story of success. It was furnished not only with a happy ending; it was happy all the way through, from Riga to Oxford (the scholarship winner to Corpus Christi became the first Jew to be elected to a fellowship at All Souls) and points west. Although he considered the present era ''the most terrible century in Western history,'' he suffered no personal hardships and led a charmed life. The three strands of his existence -- Jewish, Russian and British -- were braided richly together, and he gave full expression to each in his Zionism, in his career as a spokeman for intellectual integrity and moral decency and in his adherence to clarity, empirical reality and liberal democracy. Other circumstances contributed to Berlin's deviation from the principal genealogy of rationalistic methods and doctrines. When it came to technical matters of logic and language, he discovered, he was not in the same class as his Oxford analytic colleagues nor, sensibly, did his more urgent interests lie in formal inquiry. His first book was an introduction to Marx for the general reader, which entailed intensive study of Hegel and other 19th-century thinkers. From them Berlin learned that there might be ''no timeless truths. . . . Human horizons altered with each new step in the evolutionary ladder; history was a drama with many acts; it was moved by conflicts of forces in the realms of both ideas and reality.'' And from here his reading took him back to figures like Machiavelli, Vico and Herder, each of whom represents a departure from the main rationalist tradition. He emerged with a position, or rather a counterposition: ''Not all the supreme values pursued by mankind now and in the past were necessarily compatible.'' Individuals and entire cultures both pursued and were shaped by ''values, not means to ends but ultimate ends'' that can and do differ and are not ''combinable in any final synthesis.'' This view, he stoutly affirmed, was not relativism but pluralism: fundamental values can intractably clash, and yet ''it does not follow that, if they do, some must be true and others false.'' Liberty and equality, freedom and order, justice and mercy will not be commensurable with one another. The desirable ends that we pursue are not one but many. These ''collisions of values are of the essence of what they are and what we are. . . . The notion of the perfect whole, the ultimate solution, in which all good things coexist, seems to me to be not merely unattainable -- that is a truism -- but conceptually incoherent. . . . We are doomed to choose, and every choice may entail an irreparable loss.'' Berlin's liberal pluralism contained this indwelling bitter and stoic, if not tragic, element. It was formed reactively, as a mediated, reflexive response both to the enormous force of monistic rationalism in philosophical and social thinking and to the monstrous excesses committed in the name of rational plans in our time. John Stuart Mill, Berlin's greatest predecessor among philosophical liberals, modified the sovereign rationalist principles that he inherited from his father and Jeremy Bentham with what he learned from Coleridge and Continental romantic thinkers. Berlin repaired to similar sources in his efforts to undo the fallacies entailed in the projects for realizing, both intellectually and in society, ''ultimate harmony.'' Such celestial music was for angels, not men. His memorable essays from the three decades of 1950 to 1980 all tend to focus on this cluster of considerations. In ''Historical Inevitability'' he mounted a telling assault on positivism in both new and old forms, along with the whole range of doctrines that are grouped around belief that all human experience is determined. In the famous ''Two Concepts of Liberty'' he set forth his notions of negative liberty, which the individual must be allowed to enjoy without interference, and positive liberty, which is an expression of some idea of what is good for both oneself and others. And in his dramatic expositions of the thinking of Hamann and Herder, of Vico and Herzen, de Maistre and Mill, Montesquieu and Sorel, in ''The Pursuit of the Ideal'' and ''The Sense of Reality'' and in his essays on nationalism he worked up, worked out and reworked again his leading conceptions. He did not scruple to repeat himself. Starting out as a fox, he became a monumental hedgehog. The one big thing that, like the hedgehog, he knew was that the human world answered to the nature of foxes -- that one must know many things even if all that one knows is that this is what one has to know. Berlin was a legendary talker, as a rule in continuous full spate. Words, phrases, sentences, paragraphs came pouring forth at phenomenal speed, an unintermitting flood, often impossible to follow, but nonetheless coherent, sequential, compelling, illuminated with drama and humor. This astonishing gift brought him wide notice as an undergraduate. It was instrumental to his acceptance in and privileged place among the upper echelons in the social and cultural hierarchies of Britain and America, a series of worlds that he spent most of his life exploring and enjoying. His immense powers of spoken expression seem to have been connected with the difficulties in writing that he claimed always to have suffered, and with his apparently indifferent estimation of his own written work. Much of the substance of his published writings remained scattered about in periodicals and ephemera until a faithful editor, Henry Hardy, gathered together important volumes of his essays; Berlin's delivery from this dismembered condition secured his final singular status as a late 20th-century Victorian sage. Since his talk and conversation were manifestly touched with genius, his friends persuaded him, during his retirement, to allow himself to be taped. In 1987, Michael Ignatieff, whose latest previous book is ''The Warrior's Honor: Ethnic War and the Modern Conscience,'' began interviewing him. After several years, a biography was agreed upon. The result is a touching portrait and a labor of love. It is gracefully written, moves along at a comfortable pace and is not without its shortcomings. It is a compact undertaking, with almost two-thirds devoted to the years before Berlin composed his major works. Too much space is allocated, at least for my sense of proportion, to Berlin's hobnobbing among the influential and the celebrated. To be sure, Berlin socialized to the point of addiction and was a tremendous charmer, a nonstop conversational act that was hard to follow and a marvelous gossip. Still, there is something dubious about allotting two short paragraphs to Berlin's book about Marx while going on at length with an amusing story about how Winston Churchill mistook all through lunch a bewildered Irving Berlin for Isaiah B. The biography also takes Berlin at his word and is written on the same level of analysis as his own reflections about himself. That is to say, as in many authorized biographies, what we mostly get is the subject's version of both himself and his personal world. Hence there are, in singular contrast to Berlin's written views and convictions, no tragic conflicts, no insuperable difficulties or irreclaimable losses, no troubling inner contradictions, no neurosis, no incoherence, self-delusion, shameful episodes or lifelong regrets. Berlin habitually quoted Bishop Butler to the effect that ''things and actions are what they are''; such matter-of-factness may be the rule for certain philosophical idioms. But it is not the rule for biographies, for narratives of lives in which things regularly turn out to be what they are not, or at least fail to be what they were once purported to be. More regrettable is the fact that very little is made of deeper connections between the life and the work. Part of the inner meaning of important writings is to be traced in how they emerge obliquely from ostensibly distant or remote personal experiences. There is a similar avoidance of the contemporary biographical assumption that our understanding of the structure of even an abstruse argument can be augmented by an informed sense of personal urgings, impulses that are bound up through indirect and often unacknowledged means to larger events in the world. Nevertheless, ''Isaiah Berlin'' is an undertaking of considerable merit. It gives us a rounded view of an extraordinarily distinguished mind and prepares the ground for future studies of Berlin's work and the place of his life and experience in it. In this uncertain universe there are few matters that one can count on with assurance; one of them is the continuing salience, vitality and interest of the writings of Isaiah Berlin. Steven Marcus is the George Delacorte Professor in the Humanities at Columbia University.

Subject: Sharp Eyes for the Multiple Things From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 04:53:00 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/11/29/specials/berlin-hedgehog.html February 14, 1954 Sharp Eyes for the Multiple Things By WILLIAM BARRETT THE HEDGEHOG AND THE FOX An Essay on Tolstoy's View of History. By Isaiah Berlin. Most of us, I imagine, reading 'War and Peace' tend to skim over the long disquisitions on history as rather tedious breaks in a marvelously exciting story, and nearly all critics hitherto have given official sanction to this habit by attempting to prove that these historical essays are an unnecessary blemish upon a great work of art. However, Isaiah Berlin--lecturer in philosophy at Oxford and famous as a scholar, diplomatist and conversationalist in at least two continents--has chosen to subject these historical passages to careful attention. In this brilliant essay he not only succeeds in making very good sense out of Tolstoy's historical theory but also finds in it an indispensable key to the complex and divided personality of the great Russian novelist. The fox, said the old Greek poet, knows many things, but the hedgehog only one big thing. On this ancient bit of wisdom Mr. Berlin bases his distinction between two fundamental human types: those who have sharp eyes, like the fox, for the multiple things of the world, and those, like the hedgehog, whose defense consists of a single centripetal impulse--that is, who seek an inner unified vision. Tolstoy, in Mr. Berlin's view, was a fox who all his life sought, unsuccessfully, to be a hedgehog. The glory of Tolstoy's novels lies precisely in their almost superhuman sensitivity to the multiplicity of things, their ability to record the individual feel and tone of persons, places and situations in their concrete objectivity; but the other half of Tolstoy, particularly during his latter years, is the agonizing search for an inner unifying vision with which his foxlike appetite for multiplicity can lie down in peace. The theory of history in 'War and Peace' comes out of this deep cleft in the man himself. The theory maintains, very simply, that the human understanding can never comprehend history, since the historic process involves an infinity of causes that lie beyond our grasp. Mr. Berlin seems to me to be altogether right in rescuing his theory from the charge of 'mysticism.' It is, rather, an entirely lucid and intellectually cogent theory, and a deterministic one to boot, though rather discomforting to the facile determinism of some historians. The individual, from the point of view of history, is never free, since he is caught in a web of infinite circumstances and causes. On the other hand, 'War and Peace' as a novel swarms with an extraordinary number of vivid personal lives each of which throbs with its own sense of decision and choice. This conflict between the feeling of freedom and the rational truth of determinism Tolstoy never succeeded in resolving for himself during his whole life. Dissatisfied with the patness and artificiality of the historians' theories, Tolstoy was led in turn to distrust all theory as the falsification of the fullness of life itself. Hence, the great heroes that emerge in the novel are Kutuzov, the aged general who as the embodiment of the Russian earth triumphs over the intellectual cleverness of foreign generals, and the peasant Karataev who has a much deeper human wisdom than the Petersburg intellectual Pierre. Indeed, 'War and Peace' is one of the most formidable attacks upon rationalism ever penned. Some of Mr. Berlin's best pages occur toward the end, where he seeks to establish a connection between Tolstoy and the French Catholic thinker, Joseph de Maistre. On the surface no two people might seem more apart than the apostle of the Russian earth and the French clerical reactionary. But Tolstoy had studied Maistre carefully. Both had the same foxlike sharpness of reason to tear apart all modern forms of rationalism. Both believed that in the end man's reason was doomed to self-destruction once cut off from the earth and his past, la terre et les morts. Not only does Mr. Berlin command all the materials of erudition, literary and philosophical, for his task, but he has a deep and subtle feeling for the puzzle of Tolstoy's personality, and he writes throughout, and particularly toward the last pages, with a wonderful eloquence. This essay, I am sure, will take its place amid the permanent literature about Tolstoy. Mr. Barrett is Associate Professor of Philosophy at New York University.

Subject: The End of Pensions From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 04:32:41 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/magazine/30pensions.html?ex=1288324800&en=c2ff69df888a2169&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 30, 2005 The End of Pensions By ROGER LOWENSTEIN I. THE LATEST FINANCIAL DEBACLE When I caught up with Robert S. Miller, the chief executive of Delphi Corporation, last summer, he was still pitching the fantasy that his company, a huge auto-parts maker, would be able to cut a deal with its workers and avoid filing for bankruptcy protection. But he acknowledged that Delphi faced one perhaps insuperable hurdle - not the current conditions in the auto business so much as the legacy of the pension promises that Delphi committed to many decades ago, when it was part of General Motors. This was the same fear that had obsessed Alfred P. Sloan Jr., the storied president of G.M., who warned way back in the 1940's that pensions and like benefits would be 'extravagant beyond reason.' But under pressure from the United Auto Workers union, he granted them. And as future auto executives would discover, pension obligations are - outside of bankruptcy, anyway - virtually impossible to unload. Unlike wages or health benefits, pension benefits cannot be cut. Unlike other contracts, which might be renegotiated as business conditions change, pension commitments are forever. And given the exigencies of the labor market, they tend to be steadily improved upon, at least when times are good. For the U.A.W., Miller noted forlornly, '30 and Out' - 30 years to retirement - became a rallying cry. Eventually, the union got what it wanted, and workers who started on the assembly line after high school found they could retire by their early 50's. 'These pensions were created when we all used to work until age 70 and then poop out at 72,' Miller told me. 'Now if you live past 80, a not-uncommon demographic, you're going to be taking benefits for longer than you are working. That social contract is under severe pressure.' Earlier this month, Miller and Delphi gave in to the pressure and sought protection under the bankruptcy code - the largest such filing ever in the auto industry. It followed by a few weeks the Chapter 11 filings of Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines, whose pension promises to workers exceeded the assets in their pension funds by an estimated $16 billion. The three filings have blown the lid off America's latest, if long-simmering, financial debacle. It is not hedge funds or the real-estate bubble - it is the pension system, both public and private. And it is broken. II. THE MORAL HAZARD OF INSURANCE The amount of underfunding in corporate pension plans totals a staggering $450 billion. Part of that liability is attributable to otherwise healthy corporations that will most likely, in time, make good on their obligations. But the plans of the companies that fail will become the responsibility of the government's pension insurer, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. The P.B.G.C., which collects premiums from corporations and, in theory, is supposed to be self-financing, is deeply in the hole, prompting comparisons to the savings-and-loan fiasco of the 1980's. Just as S. & L.'s of that era took foolish risks in part because their deposits were insured, the P.B.G.C.'s guarantee encouraged managements and unions to raise benefits ever higher. In such situations, individuals are tempted to take more risk than is healthy for the group; economists, in a glum appraisal of human nature, call it 'moral hazard.' In effect, America's pension system has been a laboratory demonstration of moral hazard in which the insurance may end up bankrupting the system it was intended to save. Given that pension promises do not come due for years, it is hardly surprising that corporate executives and state legislators have found it easier to pay off unions with benefits tomorrow rather than with wages today. Since the benefits were insured, union leaders did not much care if the obligations proved excessive. During the previous decade especially, when it seemed that every pension promise could be fulfilled by a rising stock market, employers either recklessly overpromised or recklessly underprovided - or both - for the commitments they made. The P.B.G.C. is now $23 billion in the red - a deficit that is expected to grow, significantly, as more companies go under. The balance sheet for the end of September will very likely show a deficit of more than $30 billion. If nothing is done to fix the system, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts, the deficit will mushroom to more than $100 billion within two decades. This liability will almost certainly fall back on the taxpayers, since the alternative to a bailout - letting the pension agency fail - would force aging former auto workers and other retirees onto the street. As bad as that sounds, the problem of state and local government pensions is even worse. Public pensions, which are paid by taxpayers and thus enjoy an implicit form of insurance, are underfunded by a total of at least $300 billion and arguably much more. While governments have been winking at these deficits for years, they are now becoming intolerable burdens for taxpayers. In San Diego, pension abuse has effectively bankrupted the city. Thanks to a history of granting sweeter and sweeter pension deals that it has neglected to fund, the city has been forced to allocate $160 million, or 8 percent of the municipal budget, to the San Diego City Employees Retirement System this year, with similar allocations expected for years to come. San Diego has tabled plans for a downtown library, cut back the hours on swimming pools, gutted the parks and recreation budget, canceled needed water and sewer projects and fallen behind on potholes. State or local governments in New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Ohio, West Virginia and elsewhere face similar budget strains aggravated by runaway pension promises. According to Carl DeMaio, director of the Performance Institute, which advocates better government accountability, 'There is a San Diego brewing in every community.' Not only are taxpayers certain to suffer, but senior citizens in the future may also have to settle for less secure retirements anchored only by Social Security and whatever they've managed to put away into their 401(k) accounts. A backlash already has begun in state capitals, where the political forces that have been lobbying for Social Security reform have been rallying lawmakers to get out of the pension business altogether. Alaska's Legislature recently passed a shotgun bill to deny pensions to future employees. This mimics a trend in the private sector, in which corporations have been leaving the system, either by paying off their workers and terminating their pension plans or by 'freezing' their plans, a step recently taken by Hewlett Packard, so that many current employees will no longer accrue benefits and new employees will not participate at all. If the pension system continues to wither, it is not hard to envision a darker future in which - as was true until early in the 20th Century, before the advent of pensions - many of the elderly would be forced to keep working to stave off poverty. III. THE SHRINKING PENSION SYSTEM Congress has been debating legislation to fix the private system, but it has been unable to resolve a basic tension: anything it does to ease the burden on failing or failed pension plans lessens the penalty for failure and enhances moral hazard. By making it easier for, say, a Delta or a Delphi to offer benefits, it raises the possible cost of a future bailout. The tough medicine favored by the Bush administration, which would eliminate loopholes in the system as well as much of the subsidy that now exists in the insurance system, would lead to more companies freezing their plans or leaving the system outright. The number of pension plans would continue to shrink and in time all but disappear. This would strip the elderly of the future of what is still the most secure form of retirement income. The fear of runaway pension costs plainly echoes the Social Security debate, and many suspect that the Bush administration would not much mind if pensions did disappear. 'I don't think the administration is very interested in creating a future for traditional pensions,' says Julia Coronado, a senior research associate at Watson Wyatt, a human-resources consulting firm. 'It doesn't fit very well with their vision of the ownership society.' Bradley Belt, executive director of the P.B.G.C., shrugs off the charge. 'The last thing we want to do is chase people out of the system,' he says. Besides, the government doesn't need to chase. As Belt points out, the number of workers covered by pensions is shrinking without government help. In 1980, about 40 percent of the jobs in the private sector offered pensions; now only 20 percent do. The trend is probably irreversible, because it feeds on itself. Hewlett Packard, for instance, must compete with younger companies like Dell Computer that do not offer traditional pensions. Freezing its plan, which was a legacy of the company's famously employee-oriented founders, was an embarrassing step for H.P.'s present managers - but freeze it they did. This may have made economic sense, but federal law has long recognized a social purpose to pensions as well. By allowing companies to deduct from taxes the money they contribute into their pension funds, the government encourages employers to provide a safety net for their workers. This remains a legitimate function, and if pensions were allowed to die, we would need something to take their place. IV. WHY PENSIONS MATTER To understand why pensions are still important, you have to understand the awkward beast that benefits professionals refer to as the U.S. retirement system. It is not really one 'system' but three, which complement each other in the crudest of fashions. The lowest tier is Social Security, which provides most Americans with a bare-bones living (the average payment is about $12,000 a year). The highest tier, available to the rich, is private savings. In between, for people who do not have a hedge-fund account and yet want to retire on more than mere subsistence, there are pensions and 401(k)'s. Currently, more than half of all families have at least one member who has qualified for a pension at some point in his or her career and thus will be eligible for a benefit. And among current retirees, pensions are the second-biggest source of income, trailing only Social Security. During most of the 90's the decline in pension coverage was barely lamented. It was not that big companies were folding up their plans (for the most part, they were not) but that newer, smaller companies weren't offering them. As the small companies grew into big ones (think Dell, or Starbucks, or Home Depot), traditional pensions covered less of the private-sector landscape. This did not seem like a very big deal. Younger workers envisioned mobile careers for themselves and many did not want pension strings tying them to a single employer. And most were able to put money aside in 401(k)'s, often matched by an employer contribution. It happened that 401(k)'s, which were authorized by a change in the tax code in 1978 and which began to blossom in the early 1980's, coincided with a great upswing in the stock market. It is possible that they helped to cause the upswing. In any case, Americans' experience with 401(k)'s in the first two decades of their existence was sufficiently rosy that few people shed tears over the slow demise of pension plans or were even aware of how significantly pensions and 401(k)'s differed. But 401(k)'s were intended to be a supplement to pensions, not a substitute. From the beneficiary's standpoint, pensions mean unique security. The worker gets a guaranteed income, determined by the number of years of service and by his or her salary at retirement. And pensions don't run dry; workers (or their spouses) get them as long as they live. Because the employer is committed to paying a certain level of benefits, pensions are known as 'defined benefit' plans. Since an individual's benefit rises with each year of service, the employer is supposed to sock money away, into a fund that it manages for all of its beneficiaries, every year. The point is that workers don't (or shouldn't) have to worry about how the benefit will get there; that's the employer's responsibility. Of course, the open-ended nature of the guarantee - the very feature that makes pensions so attractive to the individual - is precisely what has caused employers to rue the day they said yes. No profit-making enterprise can truly gauge its ability to meet such promises decades later. A 401(k), on the other hand, promises nothing. It's merely a license to defer taxes - an individual savings plan. The employer might contribute some money, which is why 401(k)'s are known as 'defined contribution' plans. Or it might not. Even if the company does contribute, it offers no assurance that the money will be enough to retire on, nor does it get involved with managing the account; that's up to the worker. These disadvantages were, in the 90's, somehow perceived (with the help of exuberant marketing pitches by mutual-fund firms) to be advantages: 401(k)'s let workers manage their own assets; they were a road map to economic freedom. Post-bubble, the picture looks different. Various people have studied how investors perform in their 401(k)'s. According to Alicia Munnell, a pension expert at Boston College and previously a White House economist, pension funds over the long haul earn slightly more than the average 401(k) holder. Among the latter, those who do worse than average, of course, have no protection. Moreover, pensions typically annuitize - that is, they convert a worker's retirement assets into an annual stipend. They impose a budget, based on actuarial probabilities. This might seem a trivial service (some pensioners might not even realize that it is a service). But if you asked a 65-year-old man who lacked a pension but did have, say, $100,000 in savings, how much he could live on, he likely would not have the vaguest idea. The answer is $654 a month: this is the annuity that $100,000 would purchase in the private market. It is the amount (after deducting the annuity provider's costs and profit) that the average person could live on so as to exhaust his savings at the very moment that he draws his final breath. So the question arises: what if he lives longer than average? This is the beauty of a pension or of any collectivized savings pool. The pension plan can afford to support people who live to 90, because some of its members will expire at 66. It subsidizes its more robust members from the resources of those who die young. This is why a 401(k) is not a true substitute. Jeffrey Brown, an associate finance professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a staff member of the president's Social Security commission, notes that as baby boomers who have nest eggs in place of pensions begin to retire, they will be faced with a daunting question: 'How do I make this last a lifetime?' V. FROM MANAGEMENT TOOL TO EMPLOYEE BENEFIT The country's first large-scale pension plan was introduced after the Civil War, when the federal government gave pensions to disabled Union Army veterans and war widows. Congress passed an act in 1890 that extended pensions to all veterans 65 and over. This converted pensions into a form of social welfare. Over the next 20 years, states and cities added pensions for police officers and firefighters. By World War I, most teachers had been granted pensions as well. Governments couldn't offer big paychecks for workers - teachers, the police, firefighters - so it offered stability and pensions instead. In the private sector, the first pension was offered by American Express, a stagecoach delivery service, in 1875. Railroads followed suit. Employees were required to work for 30 years before they qualified for benefits, and thus pensions helped companies retain employees as well as ease older workers into retirement. These employers thought of pensions as management tools, not as employee 'benefits.' But in the first half of the 20th century, as the historian James Wooten put it, government policies turned pensions into a tool of social policy. First came the tax deduction. This feature was abused, as companies used pensions to shelter payments to their executives. The rules were gradually tightened, however, forcing plans to include the rank and file. World War II gave more incentives to create pensions: punitive tax rates made the pension shelter enormously attractive and a government freeze on wages meant that pensions were the only avenue for increasing compensation. The effect of these policies was to encourage unions to bargain for pensions and to pressure employers to grant them. After the war, John L. Lewis, the legendary labor leader, staged a strike to win pensions for miners. Ford Motor capitulated to the U.A.W. in 1949. G.M., headed by the reluctant Sloan, followed in 1950. This led to a so-called pension stampede; by 1960, 40 percent of private-sector workers were covered. Meanwhile, in the auto industry, the seeds of the problem were already visible. Companies might establish plans, but many were derelict when it came to funding them. When companies failed, the workers lost much of their promised benefit. The U.A.W. was acutely aware of the problem, because of the failing condition of several smaller car manufacturers, like Packard. The union didn't have the muscle to force full funding, and even if it did, it reckoned that if the weaker manufacturers were obliged to put more money into their pension funds, they would retaliate by cutting wages. Thus in 1959, Studebaker, a manufacturer fallen on hard times, agreed to increase benefits - its third such increase in six years. In return, the U.A.W. let Studebaker stretch out its pension funding schedule. This bargain preserved the union's wages, as well as management's hopes for a profit, though it required each to pretend that Studebaker could afford a pension plan that was clearly beyond its means. Four years later, the company collapsed. The Studebaker failure was a watershed. Thousands of employees, including some who had worked 40 years on the line, lost the bulk of their pensions. Stunned by the loss, which totaled $15 million, the U.A.W. changed its tactics and began to lobby in earnest for federal pension insurance. A union pension expert tellingly explained to Walter Reuther, the U.A.W. chief, that insurance would reconfigure the 'incentives' of both labor and management. Though business was skeptical of the idea, a decade later, in 1974, Congress finally passed the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, or Erisa, which, among other protections, established the P.B.G.C. to insure private pensions. Erisa, according to Wooten, who wrote a history of the act, completed the transition of pensions into a part of the social safety net. It was also the birth of moral hazard. VI. THE SURPRISINGLY PLIABLE SYSTEM OF PENSION ACCOUNTING Erisa, which would be amended several times, was supposed to ensure that corporate sponsors kept their plans funded. The act includes a Byzantine set of regulations that seemingly require companies to make timely contributions. As recently as 2000, most corporate plans were adequately funded, or at least appeared to be. Their assets took a serious hit, however, when the stock market tumbled. (In retrospect, they had been cavalier in assuming the bull market would continue.) And they were burned again when interest rates fell. Since pension liabilities are, for the most part, future liabilities, companies calculate their present obligation by applying a discount rate to what they will owe in the future. As interest rates move lower, they have to set more money aside because it is assumed that their assets will grow more slowly. The principle is familiar to any individual saver: you need to save more if you expect, say, a 5 percent return on your investment instead of a 10 percent return. What is much in dispute is just which rate is proper for pension accounting. Corporations have been gaming the system by using the highest rates allowable, which shrinks their reported liabilities, and thus their funding requirements. The P.B.G.C., when calculating the system's deficit, uses what is in effect a market rate; whatever it would cost to buy annuities for everyone covered in a pension plan is, it argues, the plan's true 'liability.' The difference between these measures can be extreme. Depending on whom you talk to, General Motors' mammoth pension fund is either fully funded or, as the P.B.G.C. maintains, it is $31 billion in the hole. What is not in dispute is that when interest rates fell, the present value of pension liabilities (by whatever measure) soared. The confluence of falling stock prices, plunging interest rates and a recession in the beginning of this decade was the pension world's equivalent of the perfect storm. An unprecedented wave of pension sponsors failed and then dumped their obligations on the P.B.G.C. (To do so, a sponsor generally must prove that it could not re-emerge as a viable enterprise without shedding its pension plan.) By far the most costly failures were in airlines and steel, although the list ranges from Kemper Insurance and Kaiser Aluminum to Murray, a lawn-mower manufacturer. As the P.B.G.C. assumed responsibility for more and more pensioners, it became clear that the premium it charged was way too cheap. Mispriced insurance, like mispriced anything, sends the market a distorted signal. Belt, the P.B.G.C. director, who served as counsel to the Senate Banking Committee in the late 1980's during the savings-and-loan crisis, says that cheap pension insurance gave rise to flawed incentives: namely it kept companies in the pension business who didn't deserve to be there. He also argues, rather convincingly, that lax rules allowed pension sponsors to get away with inadequate funding. For example, United Airlines did not make contributions to any of its four employee plans between 2000 and 2002, when it was heading into Chapter 11, and made minimal contributions in 2003. Even more surprisingly, in 2002, after two of its jets had been turned into weapons in the Sept. 11 disaster, and when the airline industry was pleading for emergency relief from Congress, United granted a 40 percent increase in pension benefits for its 23,000 ground employees. Bethlehem Steel similarly enjoyed a three-year funding holiday as it was going through hard times, letting its liabilities swell in advance of turning them over to the government. Meanwhile, in order to gain its unions' approval for plant shutdowns, it agreed to costly benefit enhancements. In 2001 Bethlehem filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It was guided through its bankruptcy by none other than Miller, now the Delphi C.E.O. Miller disputes the notion that capital-scarce companies like Bethlehem intentionally game the system by shirking funding. 'Companies don't like falling behind,' he says. 'When you have a hard choice between starving the capital base to feed the pension plan, or making capital investments to become more productive, to the extent there is permission that's what you do.' The point is, they had permission. Neither Bethlehem nor United broke any laws. Both companies made the full contributions required under Erisa. When the P.B.G.C. seized their plans, however, Bethlehem was only 45 percent funded, and United was only 42 percent funded. For companies that terminate their pension plans, such gross underfunding has become the norm. Either assets suddenly vanish when the P.B.G.C. walks in the door, or, evidently, the system for measuring 'full' funding is broken. As Belt testified to the Senate Committee on Finance in June, 'United, US Airways, Bethlehem Steel, LTV and National Steel would not have presented claims in excess of $1 billion each - and with funded ratios of less than 50 percent - if the rules worked.' Even leaving aside the debate over which rate to use in calculating pension liabilities, there is no doubt that Erisa permits companies to use some doubtful arithmetic. For instance, the law lets corporations 'smooth' changes in their asset values. If the stocks and bonds in their pension funds take a hit (as happened to just about every fund recently), they don't have to fully report the impact. Nor do they have to ante up fresh funds to compensate for the loss for five years. A similar smoothing is permitted on the liability side. And though, in theory, Erisa discourages underfunding by requiring offenders to pay higher premiums, its various loopholes render the sanction toothless. Thanks to another loophole, companies that contribute more than the required amount get to skip future contributions even if they later become underfunded. These companies are awarded so-called 'credit balances,' which remain in place even if the actual balance is showing red. Incredibly, when United's plans were terminated, earlier this year, even though they were groaning under $17 billion in pension liabilities and a mere $7 billion in assets, they still had credit 'balances' according to Erisa. (By law, the P.B.G.C. will be on the hook for most, but not all, of United's shortfall. The agency guarantees pensions up to $45,000 a year; employees, mostly pilots, who were owed richer pensions are uninsured above the cap.) Their dubious funding history notwithstanding, corporations - airlines in particular - have been lobbying for greater permissiveness for several years. And they have gotten it. Congress has twice relaxed the rules, permitting pension sponsors to use a higher rate to calculate their liabilities. VII. WHAT BUSH WOULD DO? Enter the Bush administration: it has essentially declared the era of permissiveness over. Among other changes, it wants the funding rules tightened. To tackle moral hazard, it wants to stop companies with poor credit ratings from granting benefit hikes, or from doling out unfunded pension benefits to unions who agree to plant shutdowns. It even wants to prevent workers at some companies whose bonds are given a 'junk' rating from accruing more years of service. This would be painful to employees at many industrial companies, possibly including G.M. Indeed, one reading of the administration proposal is that, having seen the steel and airline industries raid the P.B.G.C., it is drawing the line at the auto industry - whose initial distress, of course, prompted the agency's founding. Asked about that before Delphi went bust, Belt admitted: 'Eight auto-parts suppliers have come under Chapter 11 so far this year. No question our single largest source of exposure is the auto sector.' Since G.M.'s stock was downgraded to junk status earlier this year, the possibility that it would file for bankruptcy has been the subject of on-again, off-again debate on Wall Street. G.M.'s pension plan totals an astronomical $90 billion; a bankruptcy filing would be the P.B.G.C.'s biggest nightmare. G.M. says the notion is far-fetched. The company seems to have plenty of liquidity and, just two weeks ago, with retiree costs a major concern, it reached an agreement with the U.A.W. to trim health benefits. G.M. and other industrial companies, along with their unions, have harshly attacked the Bush pension proposal, which would force many old-economy-type corporations to put more money into their pension funds just when their basic businesses are hurting. Alan Reuther, Walter's nephew and the U.A.W.'s legislative director, says the provisions to restrict benefits would be 'totally devastating for workers and retirees.' He makes no apologies for '30 and out' - a fair reward, he maintains, for hard service on the assembly line - and he wonders at the post-modern notion that blue-collar workers should be responsible for their own retirements because giant corporations can't handle it. Also, a typical G.M. pension for someone with 30 years on the job is about $18,000 a year. That is hardly to be compared with an airline pilot's. 'The P.B.G.C. is focused on protecting themselves from claims and not on protecting the claims of workers,' he says. 'They forget why they were created.' Social safety nets have their price - in this case, a little moral hazard - and that is really what the debate is about. What has emerged from the Beltway skirmishing thus far are bills on either side of Congress that would in some ways tighten funding but give a special break to airlines. Premiums to the P.B.G.C. would rise from $19 per plan participant to $30, and variable premiums on distressed companies would be enforced. The bills would chip away (but not eliminate) gimmicks like 'smoothing.' The Senate is still divided, however, on how to treat corporations with junk credit ratings - the ones most likely to wind up in the P.B.G.C.'s lap. Hard-liners like Senator Chuck Grassley insist they should be forced to strengthen their pension plans in a hurry; Senators Mike DeWine and Barbara Mikulski (both from states with blue-collar constituencies) want to give such companies lenience. So after months of lobbying, politicking and deal making, moral hazard is still alive. VIII. PENSION VS. POTHOLES The P.B.G.C. does not protect government pensions, but dynamics similar to those in the private sector have also wrecked the solvency of public plans. Even in states where budget restraint is gospel, public-service employees have found it relatively easy to get benefit hikes for the simple reason that no one else pays much attention to them. In the corporate world, stockholders, at least in theory, exert some pressure on managers to show restraint. But who are the public sector 'stockholders'? The average voter doesn't take notice when the legislature debates the benefits levels of firemen, teachers and the like. On the other hand, public-employee unions exhibit a very keen interest, and legislators know it. So benefits keep rising. As a matter of practice, those benefits are as good as insured. Because public pension benefits are legally inviolable, default is not an option. Sooner or later, taxpayers will be required to put up the money (or governments will be forced to borrow the money and tax a later generation to pay the interest). Thus, unions can bargain for virtually any level of benefits without regard to the state's ability, or its willingness, to fund them. This creates moral hazard indeed. At least in the private sphere, there are rules - ineffectual rules maybe, but rules - that require companies to fund. In the public sector, legislatures wary of raising taxes to pay for the benefits that they legislate can simply pass the buck to the future. This explains how the West Virginia Teachers Retirement System has, embarrassingly, only 22 percent of the assets needed to meet its expected liabilities. It also explains how Illinois, a low-tax state, is underfunded by some $38 billion, or $3,000 per every man, woman and child in the state. California is a good example of the political forces that have driven benefits higher. In the 90's, Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat who was strongly supported by public-employee unions, pushed through numerous bills to increase benefits. One raised the pension of state troopers retiring at age 50 to 3 percent of final salary times the number of years served. (Previously, the formula was 2 percent at age 50, more if you were older.) Thus, a cop hired at age 20 could retire at 50, find another job and get a pension equal to 90 percent of his final salary. The higher benefits trickled down to the local level, as counties that feared losing police officers to the state felt forced to copy the formula. Counterintuitively, as benefits were going up, the California Public Employees Retirement System (Calpers), which was boasting high returns in the stock market, allowed state agencies and local governments to reduce their contributions. Contra Costa County, which adopted the '3 percent at 50' formula for its Police Department, got by with contributing only $55 million to retirement costs in 1999, near the market peak. When the market tanked, the county found itself with lower assets and greater obligations. Six years later, the county's retirement bill had more than tripled to $180 million. Bill Pollacek, the county treasurer-tax collector, says the excess earnings from the bull market were spent, among other things, on higher benefits; 'the losses were left for the taxpayers.' This example was repeated with various twists across the country. In New Jersey, for example, Christine Whitman, the Republican governor in the 90's, ultimately relied on buoyant stock-market predictions to finance hefty tax cuts, which were the centerpiece of her administration. In 1997, New Jersey borrowed $2.8 billion, at an interest rate of 7.64 percent. The money was advanced to its pension system, on the convenient theory that its pension managers would make more in the market than the state paid out in interest. For a while, they did. The state even raised benefits. Meanwhile, Trenton achieved a sort of transitory budget balance by contributing less to its pension system. New Jersey's contribution to the Police and Firemen's Retirement System was zero in 2001 through 2003. But during the dot-com debacle, its investments plunged. And the state came under intense budget pressure because of the recession, and so gave itself a few years more to start paying down its pension liability (which further widened the gap). This year, the last easy-funding year, New Jersey will contribute $220 million to its pension system; by 2010, the annual bill will be an impossible-seeming $2.5 billion. I spoke to Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester, the candidates in next Tuesday's gubernatorial election, and while each expressed the proper horror with regard to past mismanagement, neither had much to say about how they would replenish New Jersey's pension system. State pension officials say that if New Jersey were a private corporation, its system would be nearly bankrupt. 'In the real world this is a P.B.G.C. takeover,' Fred Beaver, the head of the pension division, told me. Raising taxes is politically forbidden (Forrester has been campaigning to cut property-tax rates). And the state's reported pension underfunding, officially $25 billion, is undoubtedly optimistic. It assumes that New Jersey's pension assets will earn 8.25 percent, a number collectively determined - some say pulled from thin air - by the state's pension council. Even Orin Kramer, a private hedge-fund manager who also is also chairman of the council, says that any assumption higher than 7.5 percent is unrealistic. 'The published numbers are divorced from economic reality,' Kramer says. 'No one even does the math for what will happen if you only do 7 percent because it's too serious. You start firing cops and teachers.' According to Barclay's Global Investors, if you use realistic assumptions, the total underfunding in all public plans is on the order of $460 billion. If this figure is even close to true, future taxpayers will be hopelessly in hock to the police, firefighters and teachers of the past. Cutting pensions (unlike health benefits) is simply not an option. State constitutions forbid public entities, even prospectively, from reducing the rate at which employees accrue benefits. They can tinker with, or abolish, benefits for future employees, as Alaska did, but for a worker already on the payroll, benefits - even benefits that might not be earned for many decades hence - are sacrosanct. These benefits are like headless nails; once driven in they can never be removed. This year, New York's Legislature approved 46 new bills - more headless nails - to increase pension benefits, according to E.J. McMahon, an analyst at the Manhattan Institute. New York's benefits already rank among the most generous in the country, and the new bills would expand categories of workers who can retire early, or who can qualify for higher rates. Such bracket creep is pervasive. One of the biggest pension offenders is San Diego, where six members of the pension board, including the head of the local firefighters' union and two other union officials, have been charged with violating the state's conflict-of-interest code, a felony. What is interesting about San Diego is that, juicy details aside, its pension mess actually looks rather commonplace. The six board members are accused of making a deal to let City Hall underfund the pension system in return for agreeing to higher benefits - including special benefits for themselves. Explicitly or otherwise, this is what unions and legislators have been doing all over the country. A senior adviser on pensions to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told me he fears that ever higher benefits are inescapable, given the fact that legislators control the benefits of people whose support is vital in elections. Calpers, the country's biggest state-employee retirement system, responds that the pension system has worked well. And for Calpers's 1.4 million members, it has. The average benefit for retirees is $21,000 a year, more than most at General Motors. But at some point, the interest of the public and the interests of public employees diverge. Earlier this year, Schwarzenegger tried to move California to a 401(k)-style defined contribution plan (for new employees), but the Legislature refused to go along. Schwarzenegger has vowed to revisit the issue in 2006. This battle is being fought from statehouse to statehouse. Michigan (mimicking Alaska) has closed its pension plan to some new employees, and various states, including Florida, Colorado, South Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and Montana, are taking a partial step of letting employees choose between defined contribution plans and traditional pensions. This compromise does not really change much. Most employees who are given the choice opt, quite naturally, to keep their pensions. Partly for that reason, the Citizens Budget Commission, a politically neutral watchdog, concluded that only by ending pensions outright (for new employees) could New York avert a future fiscal calamity. 'Changes in pension benefits for future workers would yield fiscal gains only slowly,' the commission noted in a position paper, 'but the service to the future fiscal health of the City and State would be enormous.' Most legislatures are not about to do that anytime soon. There is a legitimate argument for preserving public pensions, however, if only they could be put on a sound fiscal basis. Critics like Grover Norquist, the tax-cut crusader, lampoons pensions as remnants of a stodgy, Old World economy. The desire to collect a pension, he argues, keeps workers from moving to better opportunities and shackles employers to workers who are just marking time. But while mobility is generally considered a virtue in the modern economy, it isn't appropriate everywhere. It may be desirable for a software engineer to move from job to job, notes Robert Walton, a Calpers assistant executive; 'for teachers, firefighters, nurses, engineers, that isn't the type of work force you want.' Stability is a virtue. The trick is to force legislatures to commit to funding with the same zeal with which they commit to benefits. De Maio, the San Diego watchdog, is lobbying for a federal law that would impose Erisa-type rules on public plans. Another solution might be found in the Texas Municipal Retirement System, which represents 800 cities and towns in the state. It has a blended system of automatic employer and employee contributions that are managed by the system and turned into an annuity upon retirement. These sorts of remedies could avert plenty of future San Diegos. In principle they are quite simple. It is only the politics that are difficult. IX. HOW DO YOU MAKE SAVINGS LAST A LIFETIME? On the private side, benefits professionals have been touting so-called cash-balance plans, a hybrid that in some ways looks like a 401(k), as the best hope for saving the pension industry. With a traditional pension, employees accrue benefits very slowly during their first 20 years and very rapidly during their next 10 (this is why pension plans act as retention tools; you pay a penalty for leaving early). Thus, an employee who stays at a company for 30 years gets a much bigger pension than one who works at three companies for 10 years each. Cash-balance plans were devised to appeal to younger workers, most of whom do not envision retiring at the firm that hired them out of college. In these plans, employees accrue benefits steadily, one decade to the next. There is no penalty for leaving, and workers who change jobs simply roll their accrued benefits into their next plan, as with a 401(k). Many firms converted to cash-balance plans in the 90's to attract younger and more mobile workers. But the downside of giving more to junior employees is that senior employees get less. When I.B.M. converted, it reduced the rate at which some employees of long standing would accrue benefits, touching off a firestorm. The company was sued, I.B.M. lost and the legal status of similar plans remains in doubt. The pension industry has been lobbying Congress to clarify the status of existing cash-balance plans, but neither the administration nor anyone on Capitol Hill has done so. To some people, this is further evidence that the Bush administration would just as soon be done with pension plans altogether. I put that recently to Elaine Chao, the secretary of labor, and while her answer was diplomatic, she made no bones about the fact that, in the administration's view, traditional pensions are losing their relevance. 'Defined benefit plans have their advantages,' she told me, 'but in an increasingly mobile 21st-century work force, the lack of flexibility of D.B. plans is yielding to greater usage of defined contributions plans.' It's hard to argue with her, if you look at the numbers. Although 44 million people are covered by private-sector plans, half are people who have already retired and are collecting benefits or whose plans have been frozen or terminated. In other words, on-the-job employees accruing benefits - once the backbone of the system - constitute only half. At that rate, even without legislation, the private-sector pension community will mostly die off in a generation. And pension sponsors are likely to get another jolt soon. Under current accounting standards, companies can 'smooth' their earnings reports, so that each quarter's net income reflects the average assumed performance of the company's pension assets, whether up or down, but not the actual performance. (Discrepancies from the average are sifted back into the earnings stream over time.) This means that reported earnings are often wildly misleading. Robert Herz, chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, has criticized this practice as 'a Rube Goldberg device.' If FASB follows up and disallows it, corporate pension sponsors would have to cope with a lot more volatility in their earnings. Managers hate volatility, and such a change would prompt many of them to fold their plans. If defined benefits are on their last legs, then it would make sense to try to incorporate their best features into 401(k)'s. The drawback to 401(k)'s, remember, is that people are imperfect savers. They don't save enough, they don't invest wisely what they do save and they don't know what to do with their money once they are free to withdraw it. Quite often, they spend it. Here there is much the government could do. For instance, it could require that a portion of 401(k) accounts be set aside in a lifelong annuity, with all the security of a pension. Behavioral economists like Richard Thaler have demonstrated that you can change people's behavior even without mandatory rules. For instance, by making a high contribution rate the 'default option' for employees, they would tend to deduct (and save) more from their paychecks. If you make an annuity a prominent choice, more people will convert their accounts into annuities. Otherwise, it's not hard to predict that as octogenarians and nonagenarians become commonplace in society, many are going to outlive their savings, which is even more scary than outliving the savings of the P.B.G.C. Promoting an annuity culture is probably the single best way to make up for the demise of pensions. Yet most companies that provide 401(k)'s don't even give the option of purchasing an annuity when people cash in their accounts. As Brown, the Illinois professor, notes, 'There is no box to check that says 'annuities.'' That is a minor scandal. 'I wish someone in Washington were thinking bigger thoughts about what the optimal retirement package should look like,' says Watson Wyatt's Coronado. What are Secretary Chao's thoughts? She bounced the question to the Treasury Department. Mark Warshawsky, the Treasury's top economist, has written about the need for annuities, and in an interview he allowed that as 401(k)'s become the primary, or the only, source of retirement income for more people, 'I think it is a concern that annuities are not being offered in those plans.' When I asked what the Treasury was doing about encouraging annuities, Warshawsky merely said that it was under study. Anything that smacks of regulation (like rules to make sure employees get a particular menu of choices, whether for annuities or for their portfolios) gives the administration shivers. This is what you would expect, given the administration's strong free-market tendencies. But the government is already deeply involved, since it shelters retirement savings - pensions, yes, but also 401(k)'s, which are similarly permitted to grow tax-free. When it passed Erisa, Congress agreed that corporations that invested tax-sheltered retirement funds - pensions - should have to live by certain rules. But in the defined contribution world - the world of 401(k)'s - there are no rules. Employers can contribute or not. Employees can diversify or blow it all on the company stock (even if it is Enron). If nothing else, the century-long experiment with pensions has proved that in the absence of the right rules, the money will not always be there. The purpose of pension reform should be not merely to avoid a fiscal disaster but to find a fiscally sound way to preserve the likelihood of secure retirements. If people are going to retire on 401(k)'s, those should be subject to rules, and guidance, as well. It would be nice to think that reform would include a future for pensions, but on the private side at least, it is doubtful. As Delphi's Miller put it simply: 'A pension plan makes no sense in today's world. It's not wise for a company to make financial promises 40 or 50 years down the road.' Most American executives would agree. Miller says he has not decided what to do at Delphi. If workers grant wage concessions, he has said, the pension plan, which is $4.5 billion shy of what it needs, might even survive. This has the sound of a bargaining ploy. Knowing that the P.B.G.C.'s guarantee is in place, the unions will probably insist on keeping their wages as close to intact as they can, and Miller will probably end up handing the pension plan over to the agency, just as he did at Bethlehem. Then, Miller and other executives will get stock and dandy bonuses in a new Delphi that is happily stripped of pension obligations, and some 45,000 employees and retirees will, in time, happily collect their pensions - courtesy of the U.S. Government. Moral hazard at work.

Subject: Gas Taxes: Lesser Evil, Greater Good From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 16:37:00 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/opinion/24mon1.html?ex=1287806400&en=e3e99c87204c4d77&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 24, 2005 Gas Taxes: Lesser Evil, Greater Good There's no serious disagreement that two major crises of our time are terrorism and global warming. And there's no disputing that America's oil consumption fosters both. Oil profits that flow to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries finance both terrorist acts and the spread of dangerously fanatical forms of Islam. The burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse emissions that provoke climate change. All the while, oil dependency increases the likelihood of further military entanglements, and threatens the economy with inflation, high interest rates and risky foreign indebtedness. Until now, the government has failed to connect our crises and our consumption in a coherent way. That dereliction of duty has led to policies that are counterproductive, such as tax incentives to buy gas guzzlers and an overemphasis on increasing domestic oil supply, although even all-out drilling would not be enough to slake our oil thirst and would require a reversal of longstanding environmental protections. Now, however, the energy risks so apparent in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina have created both the urgency and the political opportunity for the nation's leaders to respond appropriately. The government must capitalize on the end of the era of perpetually cheap gas, and it must do so in a way that makes America less vulnerable to all manner of threats - terrorist, environmental and economic. The best solution is to increase the federal gasoline tax, in order to keep the price of gas near its post-Katrina highs of $3-plus a gallon. That would put a dent in gas-guzzling behavior, as has already been seen in the dramatic drop in the sale of sport-utility vehicles. And it would help cure oil dependency in the long run, as automakers and other manufacturers responded to consumer demand for fuel-efficient products. Still, raising the gas tax would be politically difficult - and for very good reasons. The gas tax, which has been at 18.4 cents a gallon since 1993, is painfully regressive. It hits hardest at poor people for whom fuel costs consume a proportionally larger share of their budgets; rural dwellers for whom truck-driving over long distances is an everyday activity; and the gasoline-dependent middle class, particularly suburban commuters, who, on top of living far from their workplaces, have been encouraged by decades of cheap gas to own large, poor-mileage vehicles. Fortunately, those drawbacks can be overcome. A bolstered gas tax would raise huge amounts of revenue, roughly $1 billion for every penny of additional tax. Some of that money would have to be used to provide offsetting tax breaks to low-income households, such as an increase in the earned income tax credit. Another offset that lawmakers could consider would be to use some of the revenue to buy back S.U.V.'s. The buyback notion is a variation on the 'scrappage' idea from earlier crises, when it was proposed that the government buy up old clunkers so that their owners could more quickly upgrade to less-polluting cars. Eventually, the gas tax would pinch consumers less, as revenues from it are used to finance long-term structural changes to reduce oil dependency, including mass transit and research into alternative fuels and technologies. There is a also a good possibility that, over time, higher gas taxes would not hurt consumers as much as is generally feared. Oil exporters dread gas taxes because the higher gas prices go, the greater the incentive for companies and governments to invest in alternatives. For that reason, economists assume that raising the gas tax - say, by a dollar or so - would not necessarily raise the price at the pump by the same amount. Rather, a tax increase could induce exporters to allow the price of oil itself to fall, in order to keep the price at the pump below the level at which oil alternatives begin to look attractive. 'We know that the days of unlimited, inexpensive gasoline are over,' William Clay Ford Jr., chairman and chief executive of the Ford Motor Company, said last week. So be it. Cheap gas is no longer compatible with a secure nation, a healthy environment or a healthy economy - if ever it was. The real question is whether we should continue paying the extra dollar or two per gallon in the form of profits to the Saudis and other producers, or in the form of taxes to the United States Treasury, where the money could be used to build true energy independence.

Subject: Re: Gas Taxes: Lesser Evil, Greater Good From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 17:12:08 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I can already see the 'Republican Retort' on this topic: In theory this all sounds good but in practice things run very differently, especially we you create a new huge pot of money and politicians always looking to spend. (I suppose it fits in with the Republican theory of less tax and less government is best) In Canada, the gas tax is far higher than the US. Gas costs approximately US$4 per gallon (so why are you guys complaining?) oh and in the UK it is almost double the price (US$8 per gallon - now you have no excuse to complain). Yet with such high gas prices, a large proportion of Canadians still buy gas guzzlers. And that gas tax has not 'really' gone back to help the poor overcome their disproportionately high transport costs. Don’t get me wrong, the central government has earmarked gas-tax money for many transport projects, but the final spending is always weak and thinned out over 10 or so years. Alas – this concept of increasing the gas tax can't seem to replace the convenience of cheap gas and a car (what we really need is a replacement source of fuel or energy). Oh my word – have I just sided with the Republicans? EMMA PLEASE KILL ME… PUT ME OUT OF MY MISERY !!!!

Subject: Energy Failure From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 16:34:52 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/opinion/31mon3.html October 31, 2005 Energy Failure President Bush's habitual response to energy-related problems like oil dependency is to try to increase supply rather than to cut demand through energy efficiency. The imbalance is getting worse as Congress rushes to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration. Meanwhile, the Interior Department is leasing out more fragile public land than the oil and gas companies know what to do with in the Rocky Mountain West. The administration's conservation strategy, by contrast, consists mainly of gestures, like Treasury Secretary John Snow's pledge to ride the train to New York instead of flying the shuttle, and the Energy Department's chirpy consumer-education program featuring a cartoon villain called Energy Hog. As we learned long ago when President Gerald Ford started passing out those WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons, a policy that rests solely on slogans and mascots is no policy at all. Obviously we can't expect this administration to turn on a dime and start supporting big increases in automobiles' fuel economy. But Mr. Bush has also ignored less controversial measures. Last month, Attorney General Eliot Spitzer of New York joined with the Natural Resources Defense Council and others in a suit against the Energy Department because it has repeatedly ignored deadlines to review and strengthen efficiency standards for 22 products and appliances, including room air-conditioners and furnaces. Congress requires periodic upgrades because technology gets better all the time. The first President George Bush strengthened 5 efficiency standards; President Bill Clinton strengthened 11. This administration hasn't strengthened any. Indeed, it tried unsuccessfully to roll back standards for central air-conditioners. The energy savings from updated standards would not be trivial at a time when prices for oil and natural gas have zoomed. New standards for furnaces and boilers alone could save about 3 percent of the oil and 6 percent of the natural gas used to heat American homes. The electricity savings could equal the output of 40 power plants, and the value to consumers could amount to about $6,000 per household by 2020. There's nothing inherently wrong with Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman's campaign to persuade consumers to reduce energy use voluntarily. But he should give them efficient products to work with.

Subject: Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 16:32:32 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/27/business/worldbusiness/27oil.html?ex=1288065600&en=59bb97dbdb19e118&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 27, 2005 Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil By JEFF GERTH WASHINGTON - Last spring, the White House publicly embraced plans by Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production capacity significantly. But privately, some officials and others advising the government are skeptical about some of those Saudi forecasts. The United States relies on a few producers to maintain enough spare capacity to keep prices and markets stable, even during war or disaster. As oil prices have climbed over the last few years amid surging demand and tight supplies, the Bush administration has looked to the Persian Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to pump extra oil. But doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand capacity - and for how long - have been raised in a secret intelligence report and in a separate analysis by a leading government oil adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert. If those skeptical assessments are correct, the administration's hopes of increasing supplies would become still more difficult to fulfill. Washington's expectations about oil production from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have proved overly optimistic, and the White House has failed to heed advice about both those countries from industry and government specialists, according to documents and interviews. The challenges facing the Bush administration on energy come as oil companies are set to report record profits resulting from soaring prices for oil and natural gas. Exxon Mobil, the world's largest private oil company, is expected Thursday to announce a quarterly profit exceeding $8.5 billion, more than companies like Intel and Time Warner earn in a full year. Asked about the profits on Wednesday, the White House press secretary, Scott McClellan, said 'the government and the private sector have a role to play' in restoring the vital infrastructure damaged by the hurricanes this year along the Gulf of Mexico and over Florida. Gasoline prices spiked after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, straining oil markets already tight because of the uncommonly low levels of spare capacity. But when it comes to oil supply, American companies are limited: the countries that control most of the world's oil keep out private producers. So whatever the political repercussions from high energy costs, the administration has had little choice but to rely on the promises by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, that it would continue to be the market's linchpin. 'There's always been this tenet on the American side,' said Nawaf Obaid, a consultant to Saudi Arabia on energy security, 'that the Saudis knew what they were doing and rightfully so.' But a senior intelligence official, who insisted on remaining anonymous because he was not permitted to speak publicly on the issue, said that the Saudi plans to increase production by nearly 14 percent in the next four years were not enough to meet global demand. Even the Energy Information Administration recently scaled back its expectations of how much more oil the Saudis could pump in 20 years. To be sure, as Mr. McClellan said Wednesday, there is more to President Bush's energy policy than seeking to ensure surplus capacity. The administration has called for increasing domestic production and refineries, development of alternative and renewable fuels, expanding nuclear energy and, recently, greater conservation. Still, the Persian Gulf countries are seen as crucial in moderating future prices. During the 2000 presidential campaign, when high gasoline prices were an issue, Mr. Bush pledged to do a better job of influencing Persian Gulf producers to pump more oil. Early on, the administration was mostly interested in whether the Saudis would produce more oil during the anticipated conflict in Iraq. Long before the war began, Saudi spare capacity - roughly three million barrels a day above the seven million barrels being pumped daily in 2002 - seemed adequate. Productive capacity depends on the amount of oil in the ground as well as the infrastructure required to drill, process, store and transport the oil. In addition, increasing capacity is very costly and time-consuming. 'The long-term capacity was not considered a problem,' said Robert W. Jordan, the American ambassador to Riyadh from 2001 to 2003. The Saudis, he added, 'never expressed any concern about the need to expand.' 'Nor did we, or at least me, engage them on this topic,' he said. In April 2002, when President Bush met Crown Prince Abdullah, now the Saudi king, the focus was not on oil but on Israeli-Palestinian matters, according to Mr. Jordan. The United States did not press the capacity issue because, even two years later, Saudi officials were publicly expressing confidence that there was no need over the next five years to add capacity. Going to 12 million or 15 million barrels a day was possible, though, because the country had an estimated 150 billion barrels above the 260 billion in proven reserves, Nansen G. Saleri, a senior Saudi oil executive, said at an oil conference in Washington in February 2004. Soon, though, rising demand from Asia made the need to invest in new production 'a front-burner issue,' according to Spencer Abraham, energy secretary in the president's first term. By May 2004, under pressure from the United States and other consumers, the Saudis promised to pump more oil. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, was planning to increase capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009. Before long, Ali al-Naimi, the oil minister, and Saudi oil executives were saying that the country could add 200 billion barrels - from existing fields and yet-to-be-discovered resources - to its reserves, enabling production of 15 million barrels a day for 50 years or perhaps longer. Just before meeting with Prince Abdullah in April, President Bush said he wanted 'a straight answer' about how much extra oil the Saudis could pump. At that session in Texas, the prince reaffirmed the previously announced expansion plans. Saudi Arabia's capacity now stands at about 11 million barrels a day. The Saudis pump about 9.5 million barrels, leaving a cushion of about 1.5 million barrels, mostly of heavier grades not very usable in the West. There is virtually no other global spare capacity. Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, told reporters after the meeting that the Saudi program was 'a very good plan because it addresses the underlying issue you have when you talk about price, which is an issue of availability of oil and availability of capacity.' But there are doubts about the Saudi assertions about how much oil they have. Data about reserves is tightly guarded, and the Saudis dismiss skeptics as uninformed. But they do not dismiss Edward O. Price Jr., the former head of exploration for Saudi Aramco and an adviser to the United States government on Persian Gulf oil during both Iraq wars. He questioned future reliance on Saudi capacity in an article in The New York Times last year and wanted to know from his former colleagues how they reached their estimate of more than 150 billion barrels of extra oil. Twenty years ago, a detailed study by geologists from four large American oil companies then in partnership with Aramco found little in the way of undiscovered oil resources, he said. Mr. Saleri, who manages Saudi reservoirs, met with Mr. Price in the United States last year. Saudi Aramco officials declined to respond to questions about the meeting. But Mr. Price said in an interview that Mr. Saleri told him that the basis for the higher oil figures was a global study in 2000 by the United States Geological Survey estimating Saudi Arabia's undiscovered resources at 87 billion barrels. Mr. Price said he responded that the estimates 'by the U.S.G.S. had no credibility and far exceeded the detailed studies by the old Aramco team.' The Aramco study, unlike the survey estimate, involved detailed field work. Questions about Saudi Arabia's long-term estimates were also raised last year in a report by the National Intelligence Council, an advisory panel that produces the government's most authoritative intelligence estimates, according to a government official who insisted on not being identified because the report was classified. In addition to Saudi Arabia, the Bush administration has viewed the United Arab Emirates as a supplier with excess capacity. In 2001, the emirates planned to increase capacity to 3 million barrels a day by 2005 from 2.5 million barrels a day then. But capacity has not grown in four years, which one administration official attributes to a lack of urgency by emirates officials and a lack of high-level attention by American officials. An energy policy report by Vice President Dick Cheney in May 2001 recommended that the president actively support initiatives in Persian Gulf nations allowing foreign investment that could lead to increased production. The United Arab Emirates was cited as one of the few countries that could increase its oil-production capacity. A status report on Mr. Cheney's task force, released in January by the Energy Department, said administration officials moved to carry out the recommendation in four countries. The U.A.E. was not among them, however, and the president was not mentioned in the report. When Mr. Bush spoke after the Iraq war with Sheik Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahayan, the emirates' ruler until his death late last year, he discussed security and Iraq, not oil investment issues, according to a Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of not being identified because of the sensitive nature of discussions between heads of state. A White House spokesman declined to comment. Since the status report in January, the emirates announced that they would increase capacity to 2.7 million barrels a day by 2006, and long-stalled negotiations with Exxon Mobil to develop an offshore field began moving to completion. But the country's capacity remains at 2.5 million barrels a day, with nothing in reserve, according to the Energy Information Administration. In Iraq, too, the Bush administration's hopes have been disappointed. The removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003 changed Iraq from a pariah into a possible backstop for global oil markets. Soon after the invasion, top administration officials were bullish about Iraq's production: they said it would exceed the prewar level of 2.5 million barrels a day and reach 3 million barrels by the end of 2003 or late 2004. But a report in July by the Government Accountability Office found that Iraqi production had declined since late 2004 to 2.1 million barrels a day from 2.5 million barrels, despite White House legislative requests for almost $3 billion to restore the oil industry there to its prewar abilities. An important reason for the decline, the report found, was improper management of the reservoirs. Gary Edson, then a deputy national security adviser, was told two years ago that Iraqi production would drop, not increase, according to an outside report presented to him. A White House spokesman, Frederick Jones, declined to discuss the report. But, according to Wayne Kelley, a petroleum engineer who wrote the report and discussed it with Mr. Edson in November 2003, the message fell on deaf ears.

Subject: The Industry: Gastronomics From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 16:20:15 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/magazine/30food.html October 30, 2005 The Industry: Gastronomics By MATT LEE and TED LEE The rise of fuel prices over the last year seems to have had little effect on how much we pay for food. That pint of raspberries imported on a gas-guzzling jet from Argentina? Still five bucks. Nevertheless, the high cost of petroleum has rattled the people in the business of putting food on the nation's table. With prices at the grocery store and in restaurants holding steady, producers and middlemen have been forced to absorb the increase. In Poolesville, Md., Eric Spates grows No. 2 yellow corn on nearly 300 acres. His tractor and combine burn about 4,000 gallons of diesel fuel every season, which cost him $1 each last year. This year, it's $2.50 a gallon. 'That's a $6,000 hit in my checkbook,' Spates notes. Add to that the cost of ammonium nitrate, a fertilizer made using natural gas, which went from $85 a ton last year to $200 this year. And, unfortunately, the price Spates will get for his corn won't rise accordingly. In fact, it is quite low now, hovering around $2 a bushel. (He starts to make money only when it rises above $2.40.) So Spates, 36, is holding on to most of his crop until January, banking on nationwide supplies running low and the price going up. And if it doesn't? 'I try to be a low-cost producer,' he says. 'I don't spend a lot on machinery, and I try to do all the repairs myself.' It's a refrain familiar to any small-boat fisherman, whose fuel represents a little more than 50 percent of maintainance, according to Bob Campbell, the manager of the Yankee Fisherman's Cooperative in Seabrook, N.H. Campbell has been selling diesel for $2.45 a gallon in the middle of October to dispense to the co-op's 52 members, many of whom are resorting to extreme cost-cutting measures. 'A lot of these guys are fishing solo now, which is a dangerous thing to do,' Campbell says. 'If the price of gas doubles again, you're not going to see the price of fish go the same way - there's no correlation between them, similar to the farm business. It's just a crazy thing.' To Ephraim Leibtag, a food-price specialist with the Economic Research Service of the U.S.D.A., it's simple competitive-market economics. 'Increased costs at early levels of production do not necessarily translate fully through the production chain,' he says. 'People at the lower end of the supply chain will have less market power when there are other options for buyers.' Dealing in perishables is a zero-sum game, and the seller starts with a disadvantage. 'If the buyer knows the goods are going to spoil,' Leibtag says, 'it gives them more market power.' But Leibtag notes that there might be hope for producers. Consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in September, a sign that energy costs were working through the system. 'At the pump, we see prices rise immediately,' he says. 'But a grocery store might have contracted for goods months in advance.' Price increases won't show up until the next contract cycle. Fish is clearly being marked up somewhere along the supply chain. Cyril Renaud, the chef and owner of Fleur de Sel, a small Manhattan restaurant, has watched the price of scallops inch forward over the last two years to $10.75 a pound. 'A year ago, I was getting them for $8.25,' he says. To save money, Renaud prowls the Fulton Fish Market himself instead of paying a purveyor a premium and a fuel surcharge for delivery. 'I can't keep raising prices,' he says. 'I'm going to hang on as much as I can for as long as I can.' He's not the only one. A recent Zagat survey shows that the average cost of a restaurant meal in New York rose only 0.4 percent in the last year. The notion that prices must be held isn't rooted in solidarity with the consumer but in reality: price your entree too high, and you risk that no one will buy it. Those bills piling up in the back office are a powerful motivator to keep pricing aggressively. Stephen Katzman, the president of S. Katzman Produce at the Hunt's Point Produce Market in the Bronx, is in an even graver pinch. Not only does he operate under the threat of being left with rotting cabbages in a competitive marketplace, but if he can't pay the farmer enough to cover his costs, the farmer won't ship the crop at all. His diesel-fuel expense for the refrigerated trailers that the company uses as overflow storage space gobbled $68,545 in the first eight months of 2004; the same period this year cost $199,605 (though a slice of that was due to increased usage, he says). One cost-cutting tactic he's using is to maximize his delivery fleet: he's pressuring his clients to order enough to fill a truck, so a purveyor that took in five partial loads a week might now receive three. Some restaurants are taking these pressures in stride. Joel Patraker, the purchasing manager for the Four Seasons Restaurant, surveys his bills for the day's deliveries. He adds up the various fuel surcharges that his suppliers have tacked on: $16. 'It's imperceptible, really,' he says. 'If everyone started putting on $3.95, that would be a consideration.' He's been forced to play the purchasing game with greater acuity. When the price per pound of Canadian bison tenderloin went from $19 to $21, in a blink, no note,' he looked at bison from the Dakotas being offered for $19.25 per pound, which turned out to be superior in quality as well. At Joseph Yavarkovsky Inc., which sells paper goods and packaging to Manhattan delis and restaurants, there is greater alarm. Each delivery from the paper plants in the South brings with it a new fuel surcharge of about $75. And the goods themselves are skyrocketing because of the fuel-intensive nature of their manufacture. 'Anything made of plastic, a petroleum product, is up by 50 to 70 percent,' says Ira Yavarkovsky, the firm's owner. These days, the only ones not feeling the gas crunch are the restaurateurs who take a literal approach to 'fresh, local food.' Parker Bosley, the executive chef of Parker's American Bistro in Cleveland, orders exclusively from small farmers, most of whom don't use big diesel-chugging tractors. And their fields are within a two-hour drive of the restaurant's back door - in many cases, far less. Not a single food purveyor of Bosley's has levied a fuel surcharge or raised prices in the last year. 'I'm more than proud of what I do,' Bosley says. 'I'm chauvinistic and smug. To chefs who learned how to source exotic ingredients instead of learning how to cook well, I say, 'Tough beans, guys.''

Subject: Ivory Coast's Ethnic Lines Harden From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 10:50:25 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/international/africa/31ivory.html?ex=1288414800&en=cebeadb7d7cb2d52&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 31, 2005 Ivory Coast's Ethnic Lines Harden, Hobbling Economy By LYDIA POLGREEN FENGOLO, Ivory Coast - There was a time when each of Diéka Issa Outtara's 20 hectares of lush, fertile land would produce nearly eight tons of cocoa, which he would load in big burlap sacks onto trucks bound for San Pedro, a southern port city. Each harvest season would add to his prosperity, making him one of the village's most eminent citizens. But this year he has struggled to eke a ton and a half out of each hectare, about 2.5 acres. He has been getting about 25 cents a pound, a third less than the official price. He also must pay the truck driver $2,000 to take the cocoa south, half of it bribes for the soldiers and militias along the road. 'This is the price we pay for the war,' Mr. Outtara said, sitting on a bench outside his house in this small western village as sweaty young men hoisted this year's modest harvest onto a truck. 'We cannot buy fertilizer. We cannot move freely. There is no peace, we are in war. But it is a cold war.' Once West Africa's most prosperous nation, Ivory Coast has been in the grip of an on-and-off civil war since 2002, when rebels seized the northern half of the country. Their grievances were numerous. But ethnic tension over fertile cocoa and coffee land is at the heart of the conflict, between those who see themselves as native Ivorians, mainly southern Christians and animists who control the government, and those, mostly Muslim, whose forebears came from neighboring countries or who are native northerners. The initial bout of fighting only lasted a few months, ending with a peace treaty and the arrival of French troops to keep the rebel-held north and the government-held south apart until a political solution could be found. But that solution, found many times on paper, has yet to materialize on the ground. Under the latest deal, elections to replace President Laurent Gbagbo, a southerner whom many blame for inciting ethnic violence, were to take place on Sunday. Squabbles between the sides over disarmament and preparing for the voting forced the postponement of the elections. The African Union and the United Nations Security Council have endorsed a new plan to allow Mr. Gbagbo to remain in power for another year, on the condition that he appoint a new prime minister agreed upon by all the parties and organize elections. The rebels, known as the New Forces, have rejected the plan and withdrawn from the power-sharing government. So Ivory Coast is suspended between war and peace, its economy in shambles, its infrastructure crumbling and its future uncertain. Ethnic divisions have hardened into deep hatreds, setting off attacks and massacres. At least 100 people were killed in June in villages surrounding Duékoué, a few miles south of here. 'This is country where you have a lot of Machiavellis and a lot of machetes,' said Pierre Schori, chief of the United Nations mission here. 'There is the political savvy of Machiavelli but they don't hesitate to use the brutality of the machete. So people are afraid.' The conflict has cultivated its own political and economic logic, from the leaders who incite ethnic strife for political gain to the soldiers who extort bribes on the roads; from the rebels who smuggle cocoa, timber and arms across the Liberian and Guinean borders to the unpaid pro-government militiamen who moonlight as highwaymen. Previously penniless youth leaders suddenly have expensive four-wheel-drive trucks and own gas stations, a popular investment among government supporters. 'All sides seem to have found a niche in this no-war-no-peace situation,' said Mike McGovern of the International Crisis Group, an advocacy group focusing on conflict resolution. 'In that context, the incentive for peace is diminished.' This combination of ethnic strife, economic decline and corruption has proved a combustible mix, particularly in the volatile west, Ivory Coast's agricultural heartland and the source of its wealth. In villages like Fengolo, where the Dioula, from the north, and the Guéré, from the west, had lived in relative harmony and prospered for generations, these tensions have exploded into violence many times over the past two years. Sandwiched between the lawless rebel-held town of Man and the pro-government militia stronghold of Guiglo in the no-man's land between the rebel-held north and government-controlled south, Fengolo's residents struggle to live beside one another in the poisonous atmosphere of suspicion and ethnic strife that has flourished since the war began. They frequently turn on one another in tit-for-tat violence. The Dioula, who emigrated here from the north to work the land, outnumber the Guéré and are typically wealthier, which is a source of tension. Young men from each side are periodically found dead. In February, the bodies of several of the Dioula men were found, and Guéré men were suspected of killing them. 'When they discovered their brothers have been found dead in a well, killed by the Guérés, the population revolted,' Mr. Outtara said. In their fury, they burned the Guéré side of the village, destroying 213 houses and 324 mud huts. Victor Kpondé, chief of Fengolo's Guéré, said, 'All we had since our birth we lost it.' He added, 'Some of the women were bathing, and left without clothes, running away naked.' The Guéré villagers did not return until this month, coaxed back by a small United Nations program that is rebuilding their houses and trying to reconcile the two communities. A peace committee has been formed, and the two sides are talking again. But the whispers persist, with heated language on both sides.The Dioula insist that the mostly animist Guéré are savage cannibals who eat Muslim children. The Guéré insist that the Dioula are interlopers who have no place in the Guéré heartland. 'They are foreigners and cannot own land here,' Chief Kpondé said of his neighbors, many of whom have lived here for generations. 'This place belongs to the Guéré.' In this hothouse environment, tensions are mounting. Pro-government militias are recruiting mercenaries and child soldiers from neighboring Liberia, according to a recent Human Rights Watch report, and these guns for hire are being told to gird up for a big offensive. Because militants on each side demand bribes on the roads in the areas they control, people are not free to move about as they wish, which deepens divisions. 'All the country is turning in on itself, because of this lack of mobility,' said Maurizio Crivellaro of the International Rescue Committee, an aid organization working in this region. 'This can only increase the tension and sense of separation among the ethnic groups.' In Fengolo, villagers say they are determined to reconcile, because they have little choice short of wiping one another out. 'We are condemned to live together because we cannot leave this land,' Mr. Outtara said. 'We are obliged to work hand in hand. We are obliged to be brothers.'

Subject: Memo to Tyco: I Won't Back Down From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 10:28:01 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/business/yourmoney/30tyco.html?ex=1288324800&en=28bb22894113c817&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 30, 2005 Memo to Tyco: I Won't Back Down By GRETCHEN MORGENSON IT was at the height of the dot-com craze that Sheri L. Orlowitz, a defense lawyer and civil prosecutor turned entrepreneur, found what looked like the perfect acquisition for Shan Industries, her fledgling holding company based in Washington. For three years, she had scoured the dreary and unloved manufacturing sector for small companies to buy and turn around. Her goals were twofold: making a profit for herself and her investors and helping to keep assembly-line jobs in America. The diamond in the rough she found was Accurate Forming, a metal-stamping company in Hamburg, N.J. with $8 million in sales and 90 employees. After two months of talks, an additional three months of due diligence and assurances from Tyco that the company was environmentally compliant, Ms. Orlowitz, who is Shan's chief executive, wrapped up her deal in January 2000 to buy the company for $7 million. The seller was Tyco International, then a highflying conglomerate run by a revered chief executive, L. Dennis Kozlowski. With the ink on the contract barely dry, however, Ms. Orlowitz said she soon learned that her dream acquisition was an environmental nightmare. Under Tyco's management, Shan Industries contends in a lawsuit filed in 2003, Accurate Forming routinely flouted federal and state environmental regulations, spewing thousands of pounds of trichloroethylene, a carcinogen, into the atmosphere. The company that she had thought was an asset worth at least $7 million faces remediation costs of more than $2 million and potential environmental fines of more than $1 billion. More than five years have passed since Ms. Orlowitz, 51, bought Accurate Forming. During that time, she has spent thousands of hours and millions of dollars trying to bring the company into compliance with environmental rules. She has also tried to persuade Tyco to set things right either by buying back Accurate or by paying for the necessary remediation to ensure that its operations comply with emissions regulations. With the exception of a $270,000 payment that Tyco made last April to cover what it said was enough to put the plant into compliance with federal laws and a check for $27,500 to pay for fines levied by New Jersey, Tyco has declined her pleas. Ms. Orlowitz said she was bewildered by the hardball that Tyco has played with Accurate, especially because the purchase agreement stated specifically that the seller would be responsible for any losses arising out of environmental cleanups, fines or penalties. 'I believed in the Tyco people who assured me both that I was buying a facility that was environmentally sound and that in any event Tyco would stand behind their representations,' Ms. Orlowitz said. 'I think the hardest part of all this - besides the personal and financial impact on me and my employees - has been the disillusionment.' Ms. Orlowitz said she had never expected that she would have to wage war with a huge corporation. On the two occasions when she has stood up at Tyco's annual meetings, she said she was careful to approach the company's executives respectfully. A defense lawyer by training, she said she abhorred frivolous lawsuits against the nearest deep pocket. 'I try to live a principled life with adherence to basic values of truth, responsibility and integrity,' she said. 'We would never do this for the money.' In late 2003, after an independent consultant hired by Ms. Orlowitz determined that Accurate had failed to comply with environmental laws for years before she bought it, Shan Industries filed a breach-of-contract suit against Tyco. The suit, now in Federal District Court in Newark, recently survived a motion by Tyco to dismiss it. Sheri Woodruff, a Tyco spokeswoman, said Tyco had honored its contract with Shan by paying almost $300,000 for remediation. 'It's my understanding that Shan bought a facility and is trying to sue Tyco for several times the purchase price,' she said. BUT Tyco has declined opportunities to settle with Shan for as little as $4 million, an insignificant figure for a conglomerate that has reported net income of $2.1 billion so far this year. Tyco, on its Web site, proclaims that 'doing the right thing' is the Tyco way. 'Doing the right thing' arose as a motto in 2002 with the hiring of Edward D. Breen, former president of Motorola, to replace Mr. Kozlowski as Tyco's chief executive. Mr. Kozlowski had a spectacular fall from grace, going from corporate titan to felon in three years. Last June, he was convicted of looting the company of $150 million. He faces 8 to 25 years in prison. Mr. Breen has won high marks for restoring investor trust in the company. Still, Tyco's stock is languishing at $26.75, down 25 percent this year. One of the Kozlowski legacies that Tyco still faces is an accounting fraud investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission; an S.E.C. civil suit against Tyco is expected soon. MORE recently, Jack Abramoff, a lobbyist who did work for Tyco, emerged as a central figure in a federal investigation into influence-peddling in Washington. Mr. Abramoff represented the company on matters relating to its tax-exempt status as a Bermuda-based company, even though most of its operations are in the United States. But even Mr. Breen, the new broom hired to sweep away the mess left behind by Mr. Kozlowski, has done little to clean up the trouble at Accurate Forming. While Mr. Breen has promised publicly at each of the company's last two annual shareholder meetings to push his lieutenants to settle with Shan Industries, talks have gone nowhere. When Ms. Orlowitz spoke out at the most recent shareholders' meeting, Mr. Breen directed Timothy E. Flanigan, a senior lawyer at Tyco, to contact her to try to come to a meeting of the minds. Mr. Flanigan never called, she said. A Tyco spokeswoman declined to make lawyers working on the case available. To be sure, Mr. Flanigan has had his share of distractions lately: he was chosen by President Bush to be deputy attorney general last May, but he withdrew his name this month after questions arose about his dealings with Mr. Abramoff. Tyco, which is known as one of the most acquisitive companies in the nation, bought Accurate Forming in 1969. Its products include automotive filters and intricate parts for writing instruments such as the Fisher space pen, used on space flights because it writes at any angle. Making these products requires use of hazardous chemicals as well as potentially dangerous machinery. As such, Accurate's operations are subject to regulation by the federal Environmental Protection Agency and by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. There are two main problem areas at the Accurate Forming plant. One involves the spraying of lacquer on the parts it makes; the other relates to the degreasing of those parts. Both processes generate trichloroethylene - a highly regulated and carcinogenic emission. In the years since the environmental mess emerged at Accurate, Ms. Orlowitz said, she has asked Tyco to take back Accurate and repay her $7 million cost. At an especially grim moment in 2004, Ms. Orlowitz offered to settle with Tyco for $4 million. But Tyco has balked. Now Tyco may be facing new problems. An official in the New Jersey attorney general's office advised Ms. Orlowitz last summer that a state grand jury was being convened to take testimony from employees of Accurate Forming about its environmental practices under Tyco's management. Federal and state environmental regulators are investigating Accurate's pollution history, largely because Ms. Orlowitz reported to regulators the results of an independent environmental consultant's assessment of the company from 2003. Mitchell J. Rotbert, Shan Industries' general counsel, said state officials assured him in August that Accurate was neither a subject nor a target of their investigations. Tyco's shareholders have been told little about the mess at Accurate. But in August, Tyco disclosed potential liabilities associated with the sale of an unidentified subsidiary in 2000. Deep in its third-quarter financial statement, Tyco referred to its discussions with the E.P.A. and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. 'At this time, although these governmental authorities have not commenced any formal legal proceedings,' the filing said, 'we believe such proceedings are contemplated by these governmental authorities, and that such proceedings may result in potential monetary sanctions of $100,000 or more.' Tyco added that it did not believe that any resulting sanctions would have a material adverse effect on its financial position. Ms. Woodruff of Tyco said that she could not confirm that the filing referred to Shan Industries. If so, it would be the first time that Tyco has disclosed trouble at the former unit. Tyco has maintained that when it owned Accurate, the company was in compliance with environmental rules and that its records and reports to regulators were accurate. For example, in a letter last Nov. 5 to the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, a lawyer for Tyco wrote: 'All of the credible evidence, including contemporaneous lacquer usage logs, year-end lacquer usage records, and submissions to the E.P.A., all demonstrate that the lacquer usage records are genuine and accurate and that the facility operated under the application rate thresholds.' But the testimony of a former Accurate manager taken earlier this year by lawyers for Shan Industries indicates otherwise. In a deposition on March 17, Bill Millward, the general manager at Accurate under Tyco's ownership, stated that he knew about the spray-paint limits set by regulators but that they were routinely ignored. Calling it 'acceptable practice at the time,' Mr. Millward confirmed that the limits were exceeded on an 'almost daily basis.' This testimony appears to be confirmed by a 2003 environmental audit of the Accurate plant by an independent consultant hired by Shan. The audit, by RTP Environmental Associates Inc., of Green Brook, N.J., produced a report that is two inches thick. It cited at least eight sources of violations at Accurate that RTP said could generate fines and penalties in excess of $1 billion. Remedying the problems could take several years and at least $2 million, the report said. According to Shan's lawsuit against Tyco, RTP found that nearly all the operating equipment at Accurate that required an environmental permit either did not have a permit, did not have the correct permit, or had a permit for a different location than where it was installed. According to the report, machines in a state of noncompliance at the time of the sale were three degreasers, a burn-off oven, a warehouse boiler, a lacquer assembly line, some chrome-plating tanks, some curing ovens and a trichloroethylene storage tank. In fact, RTP said, the whole facility was out of compliance. It estimated that for six years before Shan bought Accurate, the plant had belched as much as 50,000 pounds of trichloroethylene into the air. Ms. Orlowitz said she was stunned by the report. She sent Mr. Breen a copy of it on Sept. 21, 2003, and asked for help in bringing the company into compliance. In November 2003, Ms. Orlowitz wrote to the Shan Industries board, describing the alarming mess at Accurate. She proposed winding down its operations, paying severance and relinquishing all claims; she also suggested that Tyco return the $7 million Shan paid. Tyco declined. The next month, Shan Industries voluntarily advised the E.P.A. that the Accurate plant was out of compliance. Ms. Orlowitz also met with Tyco officials who maintained that Accurate's lacquer line had always operated in compliance with environmental regulations and promised to send documents verifying this. But sorting through the materials sent by Tyco, Ms. Orlowitz and her lawyers found correspondence between Tyco and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection that shocked them. It showed exactly what Tyco should have been doing to bring the plant into compliance, and apparently hadn't done. It was a 'eureka' moment for Ms. Orlowitz, who said she finally realized that she had bought a company that generated revenue of $8 million only because it was operating illegally. On the last day of 2003, Shan Industries filed suit against Tyco. Two months later, Ms. Orlowitz sent a letter to all of Tyco's directors, to their homes and to their offices, imploring them to look into the situation at Accurate. She told them that Tyco had offered to pay $2.2 million to settle the case with Shan, an amount that 'in no way compensates us for the financial devastation to the business' that had occurred. She said none of the directors responded. In April 2004, Accurate received a surprise visit from state and federal environmental authorities, who issued a cease-and-desist order that affected machinery used by 40 percent of the Accurate plant's business. Mr. Rotbert, Shan's lawyer, said the investigators told Accurate employees that Tyco had suggested that the auditors examine the plant. Shan appealed the cease-and-desist order, kept the plant open and offered to cooperate with regulators. Ms. Woodruff questioned why Tyco would send regulators to a facility where there were issues it was trying to resolve. 'I can't follow that conspiracy theory to a logical conclusion,' she said. 'We want to honor our contracts; this is a legacy issue that we inherited,' she said. Lawyers for Shan wrote to the E.P.A. in June 2004, attaching RTP's analysis showing that when Accurate was acquired, it was a major source of carcinogenic emissions and thus was operating illegally in New Jersey. In the letter, Shan explained that it had cut emissions at the plant significantly and expected to reduce them further in the future. TYCO has not yet answered Shan Industries' complaint. But it has contended that the problems at Accurate belong to Shan and that Shan could have uncovered problems through adequate due diligence before it bought the company. But, Mr. Rotbert said, the purchase agreement stated that Shan was permitted to conduct only 'reasonable nonintrusive environmental inspections, compliance audits and assessments,' the agreement said. If Shan wanted more than that within three years, the agreement stipulated that Shan had to rely on Tyco to hire the firm to do the examinations. This did not worry Ms. Orlowitz because, her lawyer explained, the agreement indemnified Shan against losses arising from 'any inaccuracy of any representation of sellers.' Moreover, the agreement said, Shan would not be responsible for liabilities of Tyco and Accurate 'now or in the future, known or unknown, arising from or associated with, environmental litigation, claims, audits, cleanups, fines or penalties.' And yet Ms. Orlowitz says that she has a lot to be grateful for. In February, her lenders extended their support of Shan for two more years, and the E.P.A. informed Shan that it planned to recommend to the Justice Department that Accurate pay a nominal fine of $101,000, in installments. Two months ago, New Jersey officials fined Shan only $27,500, in part because of its cooperation. 'The agencies were persuaded by the fact that the plant was in material noncompliance for years prior to the acquisition,' Mr. Rotbert said, 'and that Shan's operation thereafter was out of compliance because of Tyco.' Under the New Jersey order, Accurate must be in compliance by January 2006. Ms. Orlowitz says she is also thankful for her consultants and lawyers who are working either for nothing or on an extended payment plan. Employees at the plant have also made sacrifices to keep it operating. 'The damage that Tyco has caused both to the environment and the people of Shan should not be allowed,' Ms. Orlowitz said. 'If Shan does not hold Tyco accountable, who will?'

Subject: Binding Japan to Rival China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 09:25:31 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/31/international/asia/31asia.html?ex=1288414800&en=394a610589a7570e&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 31, 2005 Economic Ties Binding Japan to Rival China By HOWARD W. FRENCH and NORIMITSU ONISHI SHANGHAI - At a call center in Dalian, in northeast China, young workers speaking flawless Japanese answer customer service calls for a Japanese insurance company. In western Japan, a new commercial Chinatown is rising in Kobe City's rebuilt port area. Rather than the gaudy restaurants of the old Chinatown, the new one contains nondescript office buildings leased to Chinese companies focusing on everything from biotechnology to that most traditional form of Japanese attire, the kimono. At a time of rising political tensions, heightened by a growing nationalism, China and Japan are more intertwined economically than they have ever been. In their breadth and intensity, the ties have begun to surpass those between the United States and Japan, whose economic relationship has often been called the most important in the world. The ties offer a counterpoint to rapidly deteriorating diplomatic relations, which reached another low point on Oct. 17 when Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan visited the Yasukuni Shrine, the nationalist memorial to Japan's war dead, and China immediately called off high-level talks. Tensions will probably keep rising with Asia's transformation: China, which had lost its historical role as the region's economic and political leader to Japan in the last century and a half, is hungry to reclaim it. 'In the last few years, things have grown black and white between us,' said Toshio Hori, general manager of the Tokyo-Mitsubishi Bank branch in Shanghai, China's biggest city and an increasingly vital commercial artery to Japan. 'On the political and diplomatic side, things are pessimistic, but on the economic side, the relationship is growing stronger and stronger.' The possibility that ill will could lead to conflict is lessened by the reality that both countries would have a lot to lose: ¶Sharply increased trade with China has lifted the Japanese economy out of a lost decade of feeble growth and recurring recession, while cheap imports from China have driven costs down significantly for Japan's long-suffering consumers. ¶More than 150,000 Chinese students attend Japanese universities and language schools, and a million Chinese people work in Japanese companies. ¶Shanghai, officially home to 20,000 Japanese, may actually house as many as 100,000, which would make it the largest overseas Japanese community. ¶Japanese investment totaling $31.5 billion is enabling China to learn the formidable industrial skills of its neighbor. China's ascension has been so fast that Japan must now contemplate a true rivalry, with the Chinese economy not only outstripping Japan's in size, but perhaps matching it in sophistication before long. The uncertain new relationship between the countries, one rich in promise and in lingering suspicions, is on full view today in this city. Sixty-three years after Japanese troops stormed ashore, Shanghai is dotted with neighborhoods of Japanese residents. Japanese-language magazines cater to the wealthy Asian expatriates with everything from restaurant reviews to sex club listings, and the membership directory of the Japanese chamber of commerce reads like a who's who of the Japanese corporate world. The comfortable veneer of life overseas was suddenly stripped away in April, however, when a large protest march against visits by Mr. Koizumi to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japanese forces responsible for atrocities throughout Asia, degenerated into a riot. Crowds pelted the Japanese Consulate with stones. Mr. Koizumi's landslide victory in the general elections in September suggests that the official relationship between China and Japan will remain rocky. However, a breakthrough could occur after Mr. Koizumi retires next year. Mr. Hori of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Bank, who is also chairman of the Japanese chamber of commerce in Shanghai, said his worst fear was another protest, perhaps even nationwide. Still, he added, 'it is meaningless to think Japanese companies would withdraw and go somewhere else, like Vietnam.' 'The relationship is too big for that already,' he said. Among students at the Dalian University of Technology, many of whom will be vying for jobs at Japanese companies, there is a strong sense of pragmatism. 'History problems are history problems, but I think you have to be realistic,' said Zhang Shuai, a 22-year-old engineering student. Here and there, the same kind of pragmatism can be found in Japan, in sharp contrast to the anxious, sometimes hysterical public discussion of a rising China. Like the rest of the heavily industrialized Kansai region of Japan, Kobe, the port city that was devastated by an earthquake 10 years ago, has been economically depressed for years. Sensing opportunity in China's rise, the city government has invested heavily in attracting Chinese businesses and promoting trade with China, especially the Shanghai region. One businessman, Chen Jianjun, 43, is the founder of a biotechnology consulting firm, Shanghai Rundo Biotech Japan, in Kobe. After completing a graduate degree in Japan, Mr. Chen worked at Nestlé before going out on his own. Now he advises Japanese pharmaceutical companies on conducting clinical trials and marketing in China, giving him a broad perspective on the countries' problems. 'China and Japan are close to each other but have a distant relationship,' he said. 'Each does not understand the other well.' That plaint is echoed by businesspeople from each country, pragmatists who basically want to make money. In Japan, business tends to support Mr. Koizumi for leading domestic economic change, but cringes at his government's antagonistic policy toward China. Businesspeople fear that after Mr. Koizumi retires next year, an even more nationalistic leader may replace him. The gap in understanding extends to schools and universities. Even though more Chinese students are choosing Japanese universities over American ones, they are often surprised that their Asian neighbors are in many ways more foreign than the Americans. 'I think Chinese people understand American people better,' said Gao Ruihong, 35, a Chinese student at Kobe University. 'People hold parties at home and invite their friends and neighbors in China or the United States. I came to Japan nine years ago, but I have seldom been invited to friends' homes.' But like most of her classmates, Ms. Gao was optimistic. 'The relationship between Japan and China will become closer in the future,' she said, 'and I'd like to act as a bridge between the two countries.' For many in Shanghai's large Japanese community, the best way to build a better future between the countries appears to be in taking advantage of huge opportunities for prosperity today. 'We don't know what will happen to this market in the future, but we know that our development will depend on what happens here to a large extent,' said Satoshi Tachikake, director of operations for Mazda in Shanghai. Japanese car companies arrived late in China compared with their European and American rivals, but today no one is investing more heavily in China than Japan. Shanghai's official Japanese school has 2,214 students, a tenfold increase from a decade ago, and is expanding faster than ever. 'We have zero space now,' said the principal of the school, Kazuyuki Taichi, smiling as he displayed the model of a new school that is near completion. Mr. Taichi, who came to Shanghai just before the April protests, expressed surprise at what he found on arriving in China. 'I expected to see another transition from Communism,' he said, not a booming city as big as Tokyo. 'It's difficult to make Japanese, even your own brothers and sisters, understand that Japan's development depends on China and China's development depends on Japan. They are under the influence of the media back home, which is always blasting away at China.' Eriko Yamamoto, 26, believes that Japan can reinvigorate itself by building closer ties to China. After quitting her full-time job with Hitachi in Tokyo, she came to Shanghai recently to study at the China Europe International Business School. 'Initially I thought I should go to China and try things out, and if things didn't work here I could always go home,' Ms. Yamamoto said. 'But here I discovered if you have a bit of money you can do just about anything. In Japan, you don't have that feeling. There is a sense of so many rules.'

Subject: Google Wants to Dominate Madison Avenue From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 06:36:17 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/30/business/yourmoney/30google.html?ex=1288324800&en=b0684c6ec54b2467&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 30, 2005 Google Wants to Dominate Madison Avenue, Too By SAUL HANSELL Mountain View, Calif. IN many ways, Larry Page and Sergey Brin seem an unlikely pair to lead an advertising revolution. As Stanford graduate students sketching out the idea that became Google, the two software engineers sniffed in an academic paper that 'advertising-funded search engines will inherently be biased toward the advertisers and away from the needs of consumers.' They softened that line a bit by the time they got around to pitching their business to venture capitalists, allowing that selling ads would be a handy safety net if their other, less distasteful ideas for generating revenue didn't pan out. Google soared in popularity in its first years but had no meaningful revenue until the founders reluctantly fell on that safety net and started selling ads. Even then, they approached advertising with the mind-set of engineers: Ads would look more like fortune cookies than anything Madison Avenue would come up with. As it turned out, the safety net was a trampoline. Those little ads - 12 word snippets of text, linked to topics that users are actually interested in - have turned Google into one of the biggest advertising vehicles the world has ever seen. This year, Google will sell $6.1 billion in ads, nearly double what it sold last year, according to Anthony Noto, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. That is more advertising than is sold by any newspaper chain, magazine publisher or television network. By next year, Mr. Noto said, he expects Google to have advertising revenue of $9.5 billion. That would place it fourth among American media companies in total ad sales after Viacom, the News Corporation and the Walt Disney Company, but ahead of giants including NBC Universal and Time Warner. Not content to just suck advertising dollars from Web search, Google is using its windfall to pay for an eclectic range of ambitious projects that have the potential to radically disrupt other industries. Among other things, it is offering to build a free wireless Internet network in San Francisco, plans to scan nearly every book published and is testing a free classified advertising system it calls Google Base. More quietly, Google is also preparing to disrupt the advertising business itself, by replacing creative salesmanship with cold number-crunching. Its premise so far is that advertising is most effective when seen only by people who are interested in what's for sale, based on what they are searching for or reading about on the Web. Because Google's ad-buying clients pay for ads only when users click on them, they can precisely measure their effectiveness - and are willing to pay more for ads that really sell their products. HIDDEN behind its simple white pages, Google has already created what it says is one of the most sophisticated artificial intelligence systems ever built. In a fraction of a second, it can evaluate millions of variables about its users and advertisers, correlate them with its potential database of billions of ads and deliver the message to which each user is most likely to respond. Because of this technology, users click ads 50 percent to 100 percent more often on Google than they do on Yahoo, Mr. Noto estimates, and that is a powerful driver of Google's growth and profits. 'Because the ads are more relevant,' he said, 'they create a better return for advertisers, which causes them to spend more money, which gives Google better margins.' (Yahoo is working on its own technology to narrow that gap.) Google already sells its text ads for many other sites on the Internet (including nytimes.com), and is also moving tentatively to sell the picture-based interactive advertising preferred by marketers who want to promote brands rather than immediately sell products. Now it is preparing to extend its technology to nearly every other medium, most significantly television. It is looking toward a world of digital cable boxes and Internet-delivered television that will allow it to show commercials tailored for each viewer, as it does now for each Web page it displays. Eric E. Schmidt, Google's chief executive, explains the company's astounding success in advertising - and reconciles it with the founders' distrust of hucksterism - by suggesting that advertising should be interesting, relevant and useful to users. 'Improving ad quality improves Google's revenue,' he said in an interview at the company's headquarters, known as the Googleplex. 'If we target the right ad to the right person at the right time and they click it, we win.' This proposition, he continued, is applicable to other media. 'If we can figure out a way to improve the quality of ads on television with ads that have real value for end-users, we should do it,' he said. While he is watching television, for example, 'Why do I see women's clothing ads?' he said. 'Why don't I see just men's clothing ads?' The media and advertising industries certainly see a future in which television ads are aimed at individual viewers. But few outside of the engineering Ph.D.'s at Google think that television ads should simply be utilitarian, rather than entertaining, provocative or annoyingly repetitive - the models that have worked so far. And some media industry executives wonder whether Google, which has already become the most powerful force in Internet advertising, should also become the clearinghouse for ads of all types - a kind of advertising Nasdaq. 'For all of us to throw all our eggs in the Google basket is dangerous, because no one should have that much power,' said Jeff Jarvis, a veteran magazine editor who publishes BuzzMachine, a blog about the media, and is a consultant for About.com, a division of The New York Times Company. He added that if Google were to expand its ad sales to other media outlets, prices would fall. 'Google commoditizes everything,' he said. There is no better example of that than Google Base, a service that allows users to post all sorts of information free, including classified ads, he said. Newspapers, which increasingly use Google to sell ads on their own Web pages, will see Google Base as a 'frontal assault' on their lucrative classified-ad business, and they will say, 'I can't trust Google,' Mr. Jarvis said. Mr. Brin said that preliminary versions of Google Base leaked onto the Internet and that the company's partners should not fear it. 'Google Base is as much about classified as it is about zoology,' he said. Larry Page and Sergey Brin were exceedingly ambitious from the day they started Google, but the job of finding some source of revenue fell to Omid Kordestani, an amiable former Netscape sales executive who was brought to the company in 1999 by K. Ram Shriram, another Netscape alumnus and an early Google investor. Mr. Kordestani explored a range of ideas, including charging users for searches as well as selling Google's technology to corporations or to other Web sites - notably Yahoo - that were less shy about selling ads. Eventually, in 2000, Google started to sell ads on its own site, but they were only a few lines of text placed above the search results. There were no graphics and no banners. At first, these ads - and later, a second form of text advertisement that ran down the right side of the page - were sold at fixed prices. But such an approach would not last long. In early 2002, a Google employee, Salar Kamangar, now 28, convinced Mr. Schmidt and the founders to switch to an auction-based system like the one set up by Bill Gross, the head of IdeaLab. Mr. Gross had created Goto.com, a search engine made up entirely of ads, where advertisers paid only if their ad was clicked on, and the advertiser who bid the most per click was listed first. (Goto was later renamed Overture Services and then bought by Yahoo, an early Google backer that has become its fiercest rival.) Mr. Kamangar, though, had an important improvement on the model. Rather than giving priority to the advertisers that bid the most per click, as Goto did, he realized that it was better to save the front of the line for ads that brought in the most money - a combination of the bid and the number of clicks on the ad. This was not only more profitable, but it also linked readers to ads that were more relevant to them. He also figured out that the system should use what is called a Vickrey auction - that is, to charge the winner only one cent more than the second-highest bidder. That gives advertisers an incentive to bid high, knowing that they will not be penalized if they are far higher than the rest of the market. Mr. Page and Mr. Brin were suspicious of any system that put high-bidding advertisers at the top, Mr. Kamangar said. 'They thought if someone was willing to pay more it was a negative,' he recalled. But he was able to convince them that the site could be improved by incorporating how often users clicked on an ad. Mr. Schmidt, who was still new as chief executive, was worried more that moving to an entirely auction-based system - amid a recession in online advertising - could be financially disastrous. 'I said to Salar, 'Promise me the revenue won't go down,' ' Mr. Schmidt said. 'I was afraid people would realize these ads were worthless.' In fact, revenue quickly increased tenfold. As Google's audience took off, advertisers came running - many thousands of smaller ones at first, but soon large companies as well. Among Google's largest advertisers is eBay, which has long bought keywords for nearly every sort of merchandise it sells. 'The smartest thing that Google did was getting smaller advertisers to buy in,' said Ellen Siminoff, the chief executive of Efficient Frontier, an agency that helps advertisers manage their campaigns on search engines. She estimates that Google has two to three times as many advertisers as Yahoo does, largely because Yahoo has a 10-cent minimum bid. This lets Google earn money on more obscure search terms for which rivals have no ads. This growing advertising business gave Google the confidence to expand its audience. Most significantly, in 2002, America Online brought in Google to replace Overture, which provided both search and search ads; that deal enshrined Google as the premier search engine and ad network. Google won the deal by guaranteeing AOL a substantial sum, which it would not disclose. Google was willing to make that bid only because of its confidence in its advertising sales prowess. 'If we were wrong,' Mr. Kordestani said, 'there were some scenarios that would bankrupt the company.' But by that point, Google had figured out that the same sort of computing and engineering skill that it used to find Web pages could also be used to improve the quality and, ultimately, the profitability of advertising. 'Initially, we didn't understand how fundamental the computer science was in advertising,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'We didn't have enough staffing or focus on this area. I managed to fix that.' GOOGLE introduced its current system for determining which ad to show on which page late last year. It is a wonder of technology that rivals its search engine in complexity. For every page that Google shows, more than 100 computers evaluate more than a million variables to choose the advertisements in its database to display - and they do it in milliseconds. The computers look at the amount bid and the budget of the advertiser, but they also consider the user - such as his or her location, which they try to infer by analyzing the user's Internet connections - as well as the time of day and myriad other factors Google has tracked and analyzed from its experience with advertisements. 'If someone is coming from a particular location, a certain ad may be more popular there,' explained Jeff Huber, Google's vice president for engineering. 'The system can use all the signals available, and the system itself learns the correlations between them.' This technology is both amazing and potentially frightening. Google already collects and keeps vast amount of data about what Web pages and advertisements each of its users click on, and it can evaluate that history - and compare it with that of hundreds of millions of other users - to select the ad shown on each page. For now, Google says it identifies users only by a number in a cookie it places on each computer that uses Google. It says it has not connected the vast dossier of interests and behavior to specific users by name. But that could change as Google offers more personal services - like e-mail messages and social networking - and works more tightly with partners who already have such personal information. Lauren Weinstein, the founder of the Privacy Forum, said the data that Google collects creates troubling privacy issues, especially because it declines to say what data it keeps or for how long. 'If you start to target people based on a corpus of data, it can be abused in various ways internally and externally by organizations and government agencies,' he said. Government investigators and lawyers in civil suits regularly get court orders to force Internet companies to reveal e-mail messages and other personal information about users. Google recently rewrote its privacy policy to make it easier to understand what data it collects, but it did not scale back its data retention. Nor did it, as Mr. Weinstein and others have demanded, give users the right to see the data collected about them and their computers. For now, the only personal information Google says it considers is the user's location, which allows it to display ads for local merchants. It is starting to encourage other Web sites to send it the ZIP codes of their registered users so Google can display ads relevant to their location. Mr. Brin said he was not sure what other information about users might prove useful, but he said Google would not use the data inappropriately. 'I don't think it's a big deal to show opera glasses to someone searching for binoculars that you somehow infer is a woman,' he said. 'But you don't want to pop up ads for H.I.V. drugs on someone's page, because you inferred they have H.I.V., when their boss is standing there looking at their computer.' To be sure, other Web sites are far more aggressive in using personal information. Yahoo will let marketers display ads to users based on demographic information the users provide as well as the users' surfing and searching history. Microsoft's new system for MSN explicitly allows advertisers to bid different prices for clicks from users of different ages, sexes and locations. In addition to selling ads on its own site and on other sites that use its search technology, Google also places text ads on all manner of sites published both by professional media companies and by amateurs. Mr. Brin created this program in early 2003 after he became worried that the Internet crash would keep people from creating interesting Web pages for Google to index. This technology, called AdSense for Content, has made advertising on Google more attractive and provided the economic foundation for the rise of blogs. 'God bless Google,' said Mr. Jarvis, the BuzzMachine blogger. 'They took the cooties off citizen media.' Until Google's program came along, advertisers shied away from placing ads on individual user's pages. But AdSense analyzed each page and tried - not always successfully - to find ads related to the page's content. Now Google is looking to expand its advertising into even more places. It is testing a plan to buy pages in magazines on which to place text ads. And it also shows ads as users browse its new book search service. 'A lot of the world's content is not accessible today and thus it is not easily monetizable today,' Mr. Kordestani said. 'We will figure out how to get more and more content and find the right way to put ads on it.' Advertisers, meanwhile, have had to scramble to adapt to this completely different approach to buying ads. They needed to find ways to keep track of bids on thousands of keywords, and to measure which ads, tied to which keywords, produced which sales - and then to figure out if they had bid the right amount for the ad. Many advertisers and their agencies have a powerful love-hate relationship with Google. They find it a meaningful source of leads and sales, and the effectiveness of Google's ads is much easier to measure than that of traditional media. But Google has sometimes been hard to deal with. There is a growing sense that a significant number of clicks that advertisers pay for are fraudulent - made by competitors trying to deplete advertising budgets or by Web sites trying to bolster the revenue they get for displaying the ads. Google says it has technology to minimize what is called click fraud, but many people in the Internet business are skeptical that the incidence of fraud is as low as Google contends. Here, as in other places, many advertisers criticize Google for being like a black box, because the company gives them less specific information and control than they would like. Until recently, for example, advertisers could not specify where their ads ran, though they were convinced that some Web sites in Google's network were much more likely than others to send them customers. Google responded with what it calls 'smart pricing' technology that discounts certain ads if Google's analysis shows that they are seen on sites it determines are less likely to produce paying customers. But Google discloses little about how this works, and advertisers find it frustrating. 'Google is very opaque and bizarre to deal with,' said Joshua Stylman, a managing partner at Reprise Media, a search advertising agency, but he added that Google had become somewhat more responsive in recent months. Mr. Schmidt addresses those complaints by saying that advertisers are missing the point of Google's new model. It shouldn't matter what Google does with their ads, he argues, so long as the received value, which advertisers can measure, is higher than the price they pay. The entire discipline of media planning, which has long been important on Madison Avenue, may be rendered obsolete - just as Google's fully automated news Web site threatens the livelihoods of human news editors. In any case, there is little doubt that Mr. Schmidt believes that science will replace much of the art of marketing. 'I have this fantasy that goes like this,' he said at one point. 'You are the C.E.O. of a large company, and I come to you and say, 'Give me $1 million and give me your Web site, and we will guarantee you will get $100 million in sales.' Which C.E.O. would turn that down?' Google isn't quite pursuing that sort of deal, but it is trying to have big retailers link their inventory systems directly to its advertising auction. That way, a toy store chain, for example, could respond to a search for dolls with an ad for either Barbies or Bratz, depending on which were overstocked in the store near the user's home. 'Most retailers only advertise 5 percent of their products,' said Tim Armstrong, Google's vice president for ad sales. 'We can let them advertise all of them.' ON the other end of the spectrum, Google is also trying to focus on what the Internet market calls branding advertising - the sort that dominates television and magazines and creates awareness of a product, but doesn't directly call on viewers to buy right away. Yahoo, AOL and MSN have all evolved the simple rectangular banner ad into much more elaborate units with animation, interactivity and sometimes video formats that have been embraced by national advertisers. Google has been able to convince some companies that its text ads can help build awareness of their products, even if people don't click on them to buy something. But top executives are also meeting weekly to develop a broader strategy for branding advertisements. Google has already allowed its so-called publisher network - those non-Google sites for which it sells ads - to accept advertising with limited graphics. At first, these were simple images, perhaps with a little animation. It is now moving to accept ads that use the popular Flash technology that allows for more interactivity. So far, these nontext ads have been only a tiny part of Google's business. Indeed, such ads shine a spotlight on the mental compromise that Mr. Brin and Mr. Page made when they overcame their initial objections to advertising on their service. Text ads, they argued, were not the normal fluff of Madison Avenue, but actual information that was useful to searchers. 'Advertising was not a business built by logic, and we don't work by algorithm,' said Wenda Harris Millard, Yahoo's chief sales officer. 'Yes, we need to be more accountable, but that doesn't mean you sacrifice art and creativity.' Mr. Schmidt acknowledges that as Google explores moving into television, it may well face a conflict between its core belief that advertising must be useful and the typical television commercial that is 'based on feeling and emotion.' 'Our model is likely to affect television last,' he said, while expressing optimism that a formula for useful, targeted commercials could be found. For now, he quickly added, the market for various forms of direct marketing is three times larger than that for television ads. 'I was shocked by this,' he said. 'All of us are so conditioned to television as the height of advertising. 'We are in the really boring part of the business,' Mr. Schmidt concluded, 'the boring big business.'

Subject: Paul Krugman: Ending the Fraudulence From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 05:49:36 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: October 31, 2005 Paul Krugman: Ending the Fraudulence By Mark Thoma Paul Krugman isn't as mellow today, and journalists, among others, are squarely in his sights: Ending the Fraudulence, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Let me be frank: it has been a long political nightmare. ... So is the nightmare finally coming to an end? Yes, I think so. ... I don't share fantasies that Dick Cheney will be forced to resign; even Karl Rove may keep his post. One way or another, the Bush administration will stagger on... But its essential fraudulence stands exposed... What do I mean by essential fraudulence? Basically, I mean the way an administration with an almost unbroken record of policy failure has nonetheless achieved political dominance through a carefully cultivated set of myths. The record of policy failure is truly remarkable. It sometimes seems as if President Bush and Mr. Cheney are Midases in reverse: everything they touch ... turns to crud. Even the few apparent successes turn out to contain failures at their core: for example, real G.D.P. may be up, but real wages are down. ... The administration has ... built its power on myths ... Take away those myths, and the administration has nothing left. Well, Katrina ended the leadership myth... Pundits may try to resurrect Mr. Bush's reputation, but his cult of personality is dead - and the inscription on the tombstone reads, 'Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job.' Meanwhile, the Plame inquiry ... has ended the myth of the administration's monopoly on patriotism... Apologists can shout all they like that no laws were broken, ...or whatever. The fact remains that officials close to both Mr. Cheney and Mr. Bush leaked the identity of an undercover operative for political reasons. Whether or not that act was illegal, it was clearly unpatriotic. And the Plame affair has also solidified the public's growing doubts about the administration's morals. ... But the nightmare won't be fully over until two things happen. First, politicians will have to admit that they were misled. Second, the news media will have to face up to their role in allowing incompetents to pose as leaders and political apparatchiks to pose as patriots. It's a sad commentary on the timidity of most Democrats that even now, ... it's hard to get leading figures to admit that they were misled into supporting the Iraq war. Kudos to John Kerry for finally saying just that last week. And as for the media: these days, there is much harsh, justified criticism of the failure of major news organizations ... to exert due diligence on rationales for the war. But the failures that made the long nightmare possible began much earlier, during the weeks after 9/11, when the media eagerly helped our political leaders build up a completely false picture of who they were. So the long nightmare won't really be over until journalists ask themselves: what did we know, when did we know it, and why didn't we tell the public? I was motivated to post this shortened version of Krugman’s comments because what he says about the media applies equally well to reporting on economics. The press is no less guilty here of the lapses Krugman identifies and economic myths have been among those that have flourished (link to “Better Press Corps” from Brad Delong). Journalists need to go beyond Krugman’s three questions, “what did we know, when did we know it, and why didn't we tell the public?” and ask themselves how to do a better job of presenting objective analysis on economic matters rather than the opinions of pundits from both sides. That’s a lot harder than grabbing the usual talking heads who say the usual things, it will require digging in and doing research, seeking out and talking to the real experts in the field, and understanding the issues before reporting on them. But unless things change, the public will continue to be ill-served by the press.

Subject: Paul Krugman From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 06:00:52 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ Reference....

Subject: Constance Baker Motley From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 31, 2005 at 04:06:06 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/29/nyregion/29motley.html?ex=1285646400&en=305a0af728de6a8d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 29, 2005 Constance Baker Motley, Civil Rights Trailblazer By DOUGLAS MARTIN Constance Baker Motley, a civil rights lawyer who fought nearly every important civil rights case for two decades and then became the first black woman to serve as a federal judge, died yesterday at NYU Downtown Hospital in Manhattan. She was 84. The cause was congestive heart failure, said Isolde Motley, her daughter-in-law. Judge Motley was the first black woman to serve in the New York State Senate, as well as the first woman to be Manhattan borough president, a position that guaranteed her a voice in running the entire city under an earlier system of local government called the Board of Estimate. Judge Motley was at the center of the firestorm that raged through the South in the two decades after World War II, as blacks and their white allies pressed to end the segregation that had gripped the region since Reconstruction. She visited the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in jail, sang freedom songs in churches that had been bombed, and spent a night under armed guard with Medgar Evers, the civil rights leader who was later murdered. But her métier was in the quieter, painstaking preparation and presentation of lawsuits that paved the way to fuller societal participation by blacks. She dressed elegantly, spoke in a low, lilting voice and, in case after case, earned a reputation as the chief courtroom tactician of the civil rights movement. Gov. George C. Wallace of Alabama and other staunch segregationists yielded, kicking and screaming, to the verdicts of courts ruling against racial segregation. These huge victories were led by the N.A.A.C.P.'s Legal Defense and Education Fund, led by Thurgood Marshall, for which Judge Motley, Jack Greenberg, Robert Carter and a handful of other underpaid, overworked lawyers labored. In particular, she directed the legal campaign that resulted in the admission of James H. Meredith to the University of Mississippi in 1962. She argued 10 cases before the United States Supreme Court and won nine of them. Judge Motley won cases that ended segregation in Memphis restaurants and at whites-only lunch counters in Birmingham, Ala. She fought for King's right to march in Albany, Ga. She played an important role in representing blacks seeking admission to the Universities of Florida, Georgia Alabama and Mississippi and Clemson College in South Carolina. She helped write briefs in the landmark school desegregation case Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 and in later elementary-school integration cases. Judge Motley was a tall, gracious and stately woman whose oft-stated goal was as simple as it was sometimes elusive: dignity for all people. Her personal approach was also dignified. When a reporter wrote that she had demanded some action by the court, she soon corrected him: 'What do you mean 'I demanded the court'? You don't demand, you pray for relief or move for some action.' Charlayne Hunter-Gault, whose admission to the University of Georgia was engineered by Mrs. Motley's legal finesse, described her courtroom cunning. 'Mrs. Motley's style could be deceptive, often challenging a witness to get away with one lie after another without challenging them,' she wrote in her book 'In My Place,' published in 1992. 'It was as if she would lull them into an affirmation of their own arrogance, causing them to relax as she appeared to wander aimlessly off into and around left field, until she suddenly threw a curveball with so much skill and power it would knock them off their chair.' As a black woman practicing law in the South, she endured gawking and more than a few physical threats. A local paper in Jackson, Miss., derided her as 'the Motley woman.' In 1966, President Lyndon B. Johnson appointed her as a judge on the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York at the urging of Senator Robert F. Kennedy of New York, a Democrat, and with the support of Senator Jacob K. Javits, a Republican. The opposition of Southern senators like James O. Eastland, a Mississippi Democrat, was beaten back, and her appointment was confirmed. She became chief judge of the district in 1982 and senior judge in 1986. Constance Baker was born on Sept. 14, 1921, in New Haven, the ninth of 12 children. Her parents came from the tiny Caribbean island Nevis at the beginning of the 20th century. Her father worked as a chef for various Yale University student organizations, including Skull and Bones. She attended local schools in what was then an overwhelmingly white community. One of her first experiences with discrimination came at 15, when she was turned away from a public beach because she was black. She read books dealing with black history and became president of the local N.A.A.C.P. youth council. She decided that she wanted to be a lawyer, but her family lacked money to send their many children to college. After high school, she struggled to earn a living as a domestic worker. When she was 18, she made a speech at local African-American social center that was heard by Clarence W. Blakeslee, a white businessman and philanthropist who sponsored the center. He was impressed and offered to finance her education. She decided to attend Fisk University, a black college in Nashville, partly because she had never been to the South. In Nashville, she encountered a rigidly segregated society, and brought her parents a poignant souvenir: a sign that read 'Colored Only.' After a year and a half at Fisk, she transferred to New York University. After graduation in 1943, she entered Columbia Law School, where she began to work as a volunteer at the N.A.A.C.P.'s Legal Defense and Education Fund, an affiliate of the National Organization for the Advancement of Colored People that Mr. Marshall and his mentor, Charles Houston, had created in 1939. After she graduated in 1946, she began to work full time for the civil rights group at a salary of $50 a week. She worked first on housing cases, fighting to break the restrictive covenants that barred blacks from white neighborhoods. Also in 1946, she married Joel Wilson Motley Jr., a New York real estate broker. He survives her, as does their son, Joel III, who lives in Scarborough, N.Y.; three grandchildren; her brother Edmund Baker of Florida; and her sisters Edna Carnegie, Eunice Royster and Marian Green, all of New Haven. Mr. Marshall had no qualms about sending her into the tensest racial terrain, precisely because she was a woman. She said she believed that was why she was assigned to the Meredith case in 1961. 'Thurgood says that the only people who are safe in the South are the women - white and Negro,' she said in an interview with Pictorial Living, the magazine of The New York Journal-American, in 1965. 'I don't know how he's got that figured. But, so far, I've never been subjected to any violence.' Mr. Meredith's admission to the University of Mississippi in September 1962 was a major victory for the civil rights movement. Mrs. Motley worked on the case for 18 months before Mr. Meredith's name was even seen in the papers. She made 22 trips to Mississippi as the case dragged on. Judge Motley once called the day Mr. Meredith accepted his diploma in 1963 the most thrilling in her life. She said her greatest professional satisfaction came with the reinstatement of 1,100 black children in Birmingham who had been expelled for taking part in street demonstrations in the spring of 1963. In February 1964, Mrs. Motley's high-level civil rights profile drew her into politics. A Democratic State Senate candidate from the Upper West Side was ruled off the ballot because of an election-law technicality. She accepted the nomination on the condition that it would not interfere with her N.A.A.C.P. work and handily defeated a Republican to become the first black woman elected to the State Senate. She was re-elected that November. She remained in the job until February 1965, when she was chosen by unanimous vote of the City Council to fill a one-year vacancy as Manhattan borough president. In citywide elections nine months later, she was re-elected to a full four-year term with the endorsement of the Democratic, Republican and Liberal Parties. As borough president, she drew up a seven-point program for the revitalization of Harlem and East Harlem, securing $700,000 to plan for those and other underprivileged areas of the city. After becoming a federal judge in 1966, Judge Motley ruled in many cases, but her decisions often reflected her past. She decided on behalf of welfare recipients, low-income Medicaid patients and a prisoner who claimed to have been unconstitutionally punished by 372 days of solitary confinement, whom she awarded damages. She continued to try cases after she took senior status. Her hope as a judge was that she would change the world for the better, she said. 'The work I'm doing now will affect people's lives intimately,' she said in an interview with The New York Times in 1977, 'it may even change them.'

Subject: August Wilson Reaches the 60's From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 13:54:30 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/1992/04/14/theater/reviews/14trains.html?ex=1128484800&en=12f3550bc24c987d&ei=5070 April 14, 1992 August Wilson Reaches the 60's With Witnesses From a Distance By FRANK RICH In 'Two Trains Running,' the latest chapter in his decade-by-decade chronicle of black American life in this century, August Wilson arrives at a destination that burns almost too brightly in memory to pass for history. 'Two Trains Running' is Mr. Wilson's account of the 1960's, unfurling at that moment when racial conflict and the Vietnam War were bringing the nation to the brink of self-immolation. Yet Mr. Wilson's play, which opened last night at the Walter Kerr Theater, never speaks of Watts or Vietnam or a march on Washington. The Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. is mentioned only once. The garrulous characters, the regulars at a Pittsburgh ghetto lunch counter in 1969, are witnesses to history too removed from the front lines to harbor more than the faintest fantasies of justice. They invest their hopes in playing the numbers, not in distant leaders sowing lofty dreams of change. So determined is 'Two Trains Running' to avoid red-letter events and larger-than-life heroes that it is easily Mr. Wilson's most adventurous and honest attempt to reveal the intimate heart of history. In place of a protagonist that a Charles Dutton or James Earl Jones might play is a gallery of ordinary people buffeted by larger forces that they can join or gingerly battle but cannot begin to promote or control. While such 60's props as a gun and cans of gasoline do appear in 'Two Trains Running,' the evening's most violent dramatic event causes no serious injury and takes place offstage. Even so, a larger, national tragedy is spreading underfoot. As might be expected in a work that departs from every Wilson effort except 'Joe Turner's Come and Gone' in its experimental will to demolish the manufactured confrontations of well-made drama, 'Two Trains Running' is not without blind alleys. And it is compromised by a somewhat bombastic production, staged by the author's longtime collaborator Lloyd Richards, that sometimes takes off running in a different direction from the writing. But the play rides high on the flavorsome talk that is a Wilson staple. The glorious storytelling serves not merely as picturesque, sometimes touching and often funny theater but as a penetrating revelation of a world hidden from view to those outside it. Much of the talk is prompted by two deaths that filter into Memphis Lee's restaurant, itself doomed to be demolished. The sole waitress, Risa (Cynthia Martells), grieves for Prophet Samuel, an evangelist whose attainments included a cache of jewelry, a white Cadillac, a harem and a huge flock that is viewing his open casket down the street. The one stranger to visit Memphis Lee's, a newly released convict named Sterling (Larry Fishburne), is latently preoccupied with the 1965 assassination of Malcolm X, not out of any deep ideological convictions but because a rally in the fallen radical's name at the local Savoy Ballroom gives him a pretext to ask Risa for a date. Though the issue is never articulated, Mr. Wilson's characters are starting to compare the prophets who offer balms for their poverty and disenfranchisement, and no two representative prophets could be more different than Malcolm X and Samuel. But the play's real question may be, as one line poses it, 'How we gonna feel good about ourselves?' The liveliest talkers in 'Two Trains Running' are members of an older generation skeptical of all externally applied panaceas, secular and religious. Memphis (Al White), who is negotiating a price for the city's demolition of his restaurant, is confident he can beat the white man at his own game as long as he knows the rules. To him, those who argue that 'black is beautiful' sound like 'they're trying to convince themselves.' Holloway (Roscoe Lee Browne), a retired house painter turned cracker-barrel philosopher, is not only scathing about white men who exploit black labor but also about any effort by what he calls 'niggers' to fight back. He sends anyone with a grievance to a mysterious, unseen prophet, the supposedly 322-year-old Aunt Ester, the neighborhood's subliminal repository of its buried African identity and a magical universe of faith and superstitions. In some of the richest and most hilarious arias, the marvelously dyspeptic Mr. Browne encapsulates the whole economic history of the United States into an explosive formula and reminisces scathingly of a grandfather so enthralled by the plantation mentality he could not wait to die and pick heaven's cotton for a white God. Even nastier gallows humor is provided by West (Chuck Patterson), an undertaker whose practical view of death has made him perhaps the community's keenest social observer and certainly its wealthiest entrepreneur. As conceived by Mr. Wilson, the monologues, musical in language and packed with thought and incident, are not digressions; they are the play's very fiber. Such plot as there is involves the fate of a symbolic mentally unbalanced man named Hambone (Sullivan Walker) who pointedly 'ain't willing to accept whatever the white man throw at him' and the rising political consciousness and romantic ardor of Sterling, whose sincere efforts to cobble a post-penitentiary life and livelihood are constantly frustrated. Along with the usual Wilson repetitions and the heavy metaphorical use of Hambone (who is a hammier version of the mentally disturbed Gabriel in 'Fences'), the flaws of 'Two Trains Running' include its inability to make more than a thematic conceit out of its lone woman, Risa, who enigmatically bears self-inflicted razor scars, and its failure to delve far below Sterling's surface, despite a searching performance by Mr. Fishburne. Mr. Wilson's reticence about his two youngest and most crucial characters turns up most glaringly in the pivotal but underwritten Act II scene that brings them together to the music of a previously dormant jukebox. Mr. Fishburne, who greets each of Sterling's defeats with pride and heroic optimism, and Mr. Browne, an orator of Old Testament fire, are the jewels of the production. The rest of the cast is at most adequate, with Mr. White's ranting Memphis, whose longer soliloquies punctuate both acts, inflicting the greatest damage. The uneven casting is compounded by the harsh, bright lighting, the flatly realistic set and the slam-bang choreography of a text that needs to breathe rather than hyperventilate. Instead of looking like a production that has been polished during its long development process through the country's resident theaters, 'Two Trains Running' sometimes seems the battered survivor of a conventionally grueling road tour. The play fascinates anyway and makes its own chilling point. Just as this is the Wilson work in which the characters are the furthest removed from both Africa and the Old South (to which the untaken trains of the title lead), so it is also the Wilson play closest in time to our own. 'You take something apart, you should know how to put it together,' says Sterling early on, referring to a wristwatch he hesitates to dismantle. Rough in finish and unresolved at the final curtain, 'Two Trains Running' captures a racially divided country as it came apart. That Mr. Wilson's history bleeds so seamlessly into the present is testimony to the fact that the bringing together of that America is a drama yet to unfold.

Subject: Characters Behind History Teach Wilson From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 13:46:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/1992/04/12/theater/theaterspecial/03teach.html?ex=1128571200&en=dc3deccf3e15d688&ei=5070 April 12, 1992 Characters Behind History Teach Wilson About Plays By AUGUST WILSON In 1957, in Sister Mary Eldephonse's seventh-grade class, math and science were at the very bottom of my list of preferred subjects. Despite my fascination with words and the idea of writing, the top place in my hierarchy of subjects was not reserved for English but rather history. History as taught by Sister Mary Eldephonse was no mere record of events prior to 1957, but a universe peopled with an assorted gallery of heroes like Charles Martell and dastard villains like Attila the Hun. By the time I left her class and headed for Sister Ann Catherine's eighth-grade class, which, incidentally, would be my last year of formal education, I had already begun to look beyond the colorful characters to the cause and meaning of events and how they connected and contributed to the shaping of other events. It is not surprising then, that in 1982, when I began to write plays in earnest, I would become involved in the idea of history by proposing to write a play that dealt with black life and manners for each decade of the 20th century. I did not begin with such a grand scheme. It occurred to me after I had written my first two plays and set them in different decades. The idea of writing a series of plays that could be laid end on end to comprise a dramatic tracing of the black American odyssey through the 20th century was intriguing. I suddenly found myself with a focus and purpose, which not only held me pointed toward a goal but empowered me as well. I soon discovered, however, that I was as interested in the culture as in the history. I found what to me was the culture's greatest expression in the blues, and began my historical explorations by uncovering the ideas and attitudes so important to my characters. Since I was not a historian but a writer of fiction, I saw as my task the invention of characters. These personal histories would not only represent the culture but illuminate the historical context both of the period in which the play is set and the continuum of black life in American that stretches back to the early 17th century. I was encouraged by the fact that in all my reading of history, seldom, if ever, was the black experience and presence in America given any historical weight, seldom were they admitted to the larger playing field of cause and effect. I sought then to simply restore that experience to a primary role, thereby giving the facts of history a different perspective, and creating, in essence, a world in which the black American was the spiritual center. Because the 'field of manners and ritual of intercourse' (to use James Baldwin's elegant phrase) that sustains black American life has been deemed a part of American life by the irreversible sweep of history, the cycle of plays seems to have taken on a life of its own. My hope is that as each play has its own requirements, each play be taken on its own terms as a work of art, and only then be admitted to its place in the cycle. If you had asked me 10 years ago what I wanted to accomplish, I would not have said anything about a cycle of plays. I would have wanted as any artist to fashion of the finest gold the proper angel. I don't know if history will find this cycle of plays to be made from a baser metal than my alchemy has permitted, but I do know if it is a measure of heart and will, a tenacious belief in one's ability to go the distance, to put pen to paper and have it give back joy . . . then I'm home free.

Subject: Panoramic History of Blacks in America From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 10:42:24 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/1988/03/28/theater/reviews/28turner.html March 28, 1988 Panoramic History of Blacks in America in Wilson's 'Joe Turner' By FRANK RICH August Wilson continues to rewrite the history of the American theater by bringing the history of black America - and with it the history of white America - to the stage. In ''Joe Turner's Come and Gone,'' Mr. Wilson's third play to reach New York, that history unfolds with the same panoramic sweep that marked ''Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'' and ''Fences.'' As the new play's characters hang out in the kitchen and parlor of a black boardinghouse in the Pittsburgh of 1911, they retrace their long hard roads of migration from the sharecropping South to the industrialized North, and those tales again hum with the spellbinding verbal poetry of the blues. Whether a lost young woman is remembering how her mother died laboring in the peach orchards or a bitter man named Herald Loomis (Delroy Lindo) is recounting his seven years of illegal bondage to the Mississippi bounty hunter Joe Turner, Mr. Wilson gives haunting voice to the souls of the American dispossessed. But to understand just why the play at the Barrymore may be Mr. Wilson's most profound and theatrically adventurous telling of his story to date, it is essential to grasp what the characters do not say - to decipher the history that is dramatized in images and actions beyond the reach of logical narrative. In ''Joe Turner,'' there are moments when otherwise voluble men reach a complete impasse with language, finding themselves struck dumb by traumatizing thoughts and memories that they simply ''ain't got the words to tell.'' And there are times when the play's events also leap wildly off the track of identifiable reality. Late in Act I, Herald Loomis becomes so possessed by a fantastic vision - of bones walking across an ocean - that he collapses to the ground in a cyclonic paroxysm of spiritual torment and, to the horror of his fellow boarders, scuttles epileptically across the floor on his back, unable to recover his footing and stand up. These are occasions of true mystery and high drama, and they take Mr. Wilson's characters and writing to a dizzying place they haven't been before. That place is both literally and figuratively Africa. Though on its surface a familiar American tale about new arrivals in the big city searching for jobs, lost relatives, adventure and love, ''Joe Turner's Come and Gone'' is most of all about a search for identity into a dark and distant past. That search leads the black characters back across the ocean where so many of their ancestors died in passage to slavery - and it sends Mr. Wilson's own writing in search of its cultural roots. As the occupants of the Pittsburgh boardinghouse are partly assimilated into white America and partly in thrall to a collective African unconscious, so Mr. Wilson's play is a mixture of the well-made naturalistic boardinghouse drama and the mystical, non-Western theater of ritual and metaphor. In ''Joe Turner,'' the clash between the American and the African shakes white and black theatergoers as violently as it has shaken the history we've all shared. To achieve his sophisticated end, Mr. Wilson has constructed an irresistible premise. ''Joe Turner'' begins when the bizarre Loomis, imposing and intense in Mr. Lindo's riveting performance, comes knocking fiercely at the boardinghouse door with his delicate 11-year-old daughter (Jamila Perry) incongruously in tow. With his years of servitude to Joe Turner at last behind him, Loomis is searching for the wife who deserted him at the start of his captivity a decade earlier. But Loomis is a ''wild-eyed, mean-looking'' man who looks as if he ''killed somebody gambling over a quarter''; he's so pitch-black in mood and dress that there must be more to his story. Bynum Walker (Ed Hall), an eccentric fellow boarder with a penchant for clairvoyance and other forms of old-country voodoo, becomes obsessed with the strange intruder, intent on linking Loomis somehow to the supernatural ''shining man'' who haunts his own search for the ''secret of life.'' Yet the metaphysical cat-and-mouse game played by Bynum and Loomis is only the spine of ''Joe Turner.'' Everyone in the boardinghouse is looking, each according to his own experience, for either a lost relative or a secret of life, or both. The proprietor (Mel Winkler), the son of a free man, seeks salvation by becoming a typical American entrepreneur; he has no sympathy for a new young tenant (Bo Rucker) who arrives in Pittsburgh with rustic cotton-picking manners and crazy dreams of escaping menial labor with his guitar music. The women of the house also range across a wide spectrum - from a worldly cynic (Kimberly Scott) to a naive romantic searching for a man (Kimberleigh Aarn) to the good-hearted proprietress (L. Scott Caldwell) who believes that laughter is the best way ''to know you're alive.'' By throwing such varied individuals together, Mr. Wilson creates a kaleidoscopic pattern of emotional relationships, including some tender, funny and sexy courtships sparked by the endearingly boisterous Mr. Rucker. But each character also has a distinct relationship to the black past, just as each has a different perspective on the white urban present. It's only when all the boardinghouse residents spontaneously break into an African ''juba,'' singing and dancing at a Sunday fried-chicken dinner, that the extended family of ''Joe Turner'' finds a degree of unity and peace. As Bynum says to anyone who will listen, each man must find his own song if he is to be free. Loomis, the sole character who fails to join in the juba, must find his song if he is to reconnect to life and overthrow the psychic burden of his years of slavery. Only then will Joe Turner - the play's symbol of white oppression as well as the subject of the W. C. Handy blues song that gave it its title - be truly gone. As usual with Mr. Wilson, the play overstates its thematic exposition in an overlong first act. There are some other infelicities, too, most notably the thin characterization of a pair of children. While one wishes that the director, Lloyd Richards, had addressed these flaws with more tough-mindedness during the two years of refinement that followed the play's premiere at the Yale Repertory Theater, the production is in every other way a tribute to its extended development process in resident theaters around the country. The first-rate cast, which also includes Raynor Scheine as a benign white river rat and Angela Bassett as a fervent convert to the white god that failed her ancestors, forms a supple, harmonic ensemble. Mr. Richards's staging is equally conversant with scenes of romantic flirtation, rending tableaux of divided families and galvanic climaxes in which the past erupts in a frenzy of exorcism. The oblique, symbiotic relationship between Mr. Hall's otherworldly Bynum and Mr. Lindo's Loomis is particularly impressive. The two men's subliminal, often unspoken connection emerges like a magnetic force whenever they are onstage together. Loomis, we're told, was in happier days the deacon of the ''Abundant Light'' church. Under Mr. Hall's subtle psychological prodding and healing, Mr. Lindo gradually metamorphoses from a man whose opaque, defeated blackness signals the extinction of that light into a truly luminous ''shining man,'' bathing the entire theater in the abundant ecstasy of his liberation. The sight is indescribably moving. An American writer in the deepest sense, August Wilson has once again shown us how in another man's freedom we find our own.

Subject: The Mother of an Era: August Wilson's From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 10:40:54 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/02/theater/theaterspecial/03era.html?ex=1128571200&en=151c9c4cc41968e7&ei=5070 February 2, 2003 The Mother of an Era: August Wilson's By SAMUEL G. FREEDMAN ON a stifling July night in 1982, an aspiring playwright named August Wilson sat in the airless barn that served as the main stage for the Eugene O'Neill Theater Center in Waterford, Conn. Nearing 40, he had lately been earning his living as the staff cook for a social service agency in Minnesota. Beside him perched his mother, who had never seen any of his efforts at drama performed. This one was called 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.' A few rows away, Lloyd Richards gingerly settled into his customary chair. Though respected as the leader of both the O'Neill Center and the Yale Repertory Theater, he had gone almost a quarter-century since his zenith as a director -- with Lorraine Hansberry's 'Raisin in the Sun.' Portly and gray, he was deep enough into middle age to have bad hips. Down beneath the stage, in what had been a livestock pen, several actors paced, scripts in hand. One was a former dry-cleaner, another a songwriter, the third a convicted killer who had entered the Yale Drama School while on parole. That young man, Charles S. Dutton, had been considering passing on the O'Neill because it paid only $25 a week, except that Mr. Richards had told him in an oracular way, 'We might have something there for you.' By the final blackout four hours later, American theater had changed forever. The point is not simply that the staged reading of 'Ma Rainey' led to the acclaimed 1984 production that marked Mr. Wilson's Broadway debut. It is not that 'Ma Rainey' announced Mr. Dutton to the theatergoing world and that it proclaimed Mr. Richards's re-emergence as a discoverer and shaper of dramatic talent. With the benefit of 20 years of hindsight, one can posit that the maiden performance of 'Ma Rainey' inaugurated the August Wilson era. As both an individual playwright and a hub of theatrical activity, he has defined his time in the way Eugene O'Neill, Arthur Miller and Tennessee Williams, Neil Simon and Edward Albee defined the three preceding generations. The revival of 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' that opens on Thursday at the Royale Theater -- starring Mr. Dutton and Whoopi Goldberg and directed by Marion McClinton -- invites retrospection. The production arrives with a modest advance, some public friction between stars and producers, and a sense of Mr. Wilson's career coming full circle. The playwright has already completed the ninth in his 10-play cycle about African-American life in the 20th century; that drama, 'Gem of the Ocean,' will have its premiere in April at the Goodman Theater in Chicago. An unrepentant black nationalist, a self-described 'race man' who likens crossover artists to slaves amusing master, Mr. Wilson has managed simultaneously to ignore the mainstream and to stake his place in it. For its effect on American culture at large, Mr. Wilson's work finds its closest parallels not in theater but in music -- gospel, jazz, even hip-hop. 'There's a concept in theology called the 'scandal of particularity,' meaning when the universal God becomes a particular Jewish guy named Jesus,' said Michael Eric Dyson, a prominent cultural critic who is a professor of African-American studies and religious studies at the University of Pennsylvania. 'August Wilson's scandal of particularity is his unyielding attention to the specific details of black life. What it means for black identity to be assaulted, but also elevated. Assaulted by racial oppression, economic misery. But elevated because, in his plays, moral vision is not the property of the elite. There's ethical wisdom in the everyday struggles of black people. August Wilson has no desire to translate this for whites, to give a grammar of explanation or a thesaurus that might illumine. Just put black life there onstage and assume it exists. And yet by doing that, people can tap into it and it can resonate universally, because it dares to be particular.' Certainly, no playwright of Mr. Wilson's generation -- he is 57 -- has proved as ubiquitous. Every one of his first eight dramas has played in New York, seven of them on Broadway, and collectively they have received nearly 2,000 productions, from amateur companies to regional theaters to London's Royal National Theater. Mr. Wilson has won two Pulitzer Prizes ('Fences' in 1988 and 'The Piano Lesson' in 1990), been a Pulitzer finalist four other times ('The Piano Lesson' in 1989, 'Two Trains Running' in 1992, 'Seven Guitars' in 1995 and 'King Hedley II' in 2000), and taken seven New York Drama Critics Circle Awards (for all his plays except 'King Hedley'). The search-engine Google makes 17,000 hits for 'August Wilson': study guides, video clips, homework tips, discographies, selected quotations. The Library of Congress lists 30 books by or about Mr. Wilson. Doctoral dissertations on his plays ponder such topics as 'strategies of coping with social oppression,' 'power acquisition theory and the tragic legacy,' and 'reforming the black male self.' The object of such postmodern rhetoric was born in the industrial reality of Pittsburgh in 1945. By now, the rudiments of Mr. Wilson's biography are widely known -- the son of a resilient, principled black mother and an abusive, absentee white father; the bright student driven into dropping out by bigoted teachers and classmates; the young poet inspired by the black arts movement in the 1960's; the nascent playwright who found his voice and subject only after leaving his black neighborhood, the Hill, for the vanilla climes of Minnesota. Figuratively, and often literally, Mr. Wilson's plays have taken audiences to the Hill and the joys and torments of the black working class. Jitney drivers, preachers, railroad porters and boardinghouse landladies populate his stage. While slavery and its legacy hover over every Wilson drama, whites themselves rarely appear. His plays admit white viewers to a wholly contained black world of lunch-counter banter and bid-whist games, and reawaken blacks to the memories of thriving communal life before the mixed blessing of integration. A strong strain of traditionalism runs through Mr. Wilson's art, and it helps explain the work's accessibility across racial lines. Even as Mr. Wilson's plays freely incorporate African-American art and ritual -- the ring shout in 'Joe Turner's Come and Gone,' the blues songs in 'Ma Rainey,' the totemic carvings in 'The Piano Lesson' -- they embrace the now-unfashionable conventions of linear narrative and dramatic tension. In 'The Piano Lesson,' for instance, a brother and sister argue over the fate of a family heirloom. In 'Fences,' a young athlete's dream of a college scholarship collides with his father's bitter experience of the color barrier in sports. Observing at least some of the Aristotelian unities, 'Ma Rainey' unfolds in 1927 in a single place (a Chicago recording studio) in actual time (a recording session). At the most elemental level, the drama involves a power struggle between the imperious Ma (Ms. Goldberg), the ambitious trumpeter Levee (Mr. Dutton) and the white recording company boss Sturdyvant (Louis Zorich). Ma is acutely aware that, whatever her stardom, she cannot hail a cab or be welcomed in a white home. What she can do is undermine Levee's own desire to stamp her sound with his jazzier style. From an almost godlike remove in the studio control booth, Sturdyvant both mediates and manipulates the friction. 'In a sense, the dramaturgy reaches back to Miller and O'Neill,' said the playwright Tony Kushner, who won the Pulitzer Prize for 'Angels in America.' 'August is impressively out of step with a lot of what's going on in the theater. And yet there's a way those plays are only apparently 'well-made.' The famous example is that 'Death of a Salesman' was originally called 'Inside His Head.' 'Iceman Cometh' is a sprawling thing. Like them, August's plays make huge demands. They're not just family dramas; they're deeply connected to a moment in history. And they aren't about escape or respite, but going down the mine shaft into the heart of things.' In his person, as well, Mr. Wilson has hewed to an old-fashioned path. He has lived for the last quarter century in two cities -- first, St. Paul, Minn., and now Seattle -- that are distant from entertainment capitals, and he has almost entirely refused to write for film or television. He has adapted only 'The Piano Lesson,' for a Hallmark Hall of Fame show in 1995. Only now, more than 15 years after it opened on Broadway, is 'Fences,' with Scott Rudin producing and Mr. McClinton directing, being developed for a film. In the meantime, said Mr. Wilson's lawyer and adviser, John Breglio, the playwright has turned down literally hundreds of screenwriting offers, including projects as formidable as Stephen Spielberg's 'Amistad' and Spike Lee's 'Malcolm X.' 'I wanted to have a career in theater,' Mr. Wilson said in a recent interview at that most traditional Broadway lunch spot, the Cafe Edison. 'That's why I stayed true to it. It's a matter of concentration, of critical mass, instead of doing this, doing that. I haven't seen many black playwrights who stayed. What happened to Lonne Elder? What happened to Joseph Walker? Charles Fuller? They went to Hollywood. I wanted to hang around, to put together a body of work.' A combination of the right comrades and an evolution in theater economics gave Mr. Wilson the financial freedom to do so. Lloyd Richards, with his multiple directorial positions, was able to ensure staged readings at the O'Neill Center for Mr. Wilson's first three plays, followed by full productions at the Yale Repertory. By the fourth play, 'The Piano Lesson,' Mr. Richards and the Yale Rep's managing director, Ben Mordecai, had assembled a circuit of regional theaters -- particularly the Goodman in Chicago, the Seattle Rep, the Mark Taper Forum in Los Angeles and the Huntington in Boston -- to present Mr. Wilson's work with the cast and director intact from the Yale premiere. The system allowed Mr. Richards and Mr. Wilson months to sharpen and burnish each play before coming to Broadway, and permitted the regional theaters to share in the risk or reward of the commercial production. For theater professionals, this model represents possibly the most significant element of the Wilson era. 'It's an extremely contemporary way of recreating the road,' said Robert Marx, a former executive with both the National Endowment of the Arts and the New York Public Library of the Performing Arts. 'When you think about the old days, with Miller and Odets and Williams and the rest, they developed their plays out of town. That system no longer exists. But with the process Lloyd and Ben created, you see nonprofit theaters come into their own as producing entities.' As commercial vehicles, Mr. Wilson's dramas have posted a mixed record. Three of the eight (''Fences,'' ''The Piano Lesson'' and ''Jitney'') turned a profit for investors, with ''Fences'' repaying original backers 10 times over, according to Mr. Mordecai. The Broadway runs ranged from 72 performances for ''King Hedley II'' to 525 for ''Fences.'' For black actors and actresses, though, the plays have provided an unqualified bonanza. More than 250 African-American performers have played in the Broadway productions alone. And while the plays have occasionally benefited from the wattage of an established star -- Laurence Fishburne in ''Two Trains Running,'' James Earl Jones in ''Fences,'' Brian Stokes Mitchell in ''King Hedley II'' -- more often they have inaugurated or revived careers, including those of Courtney Vance and Mary Alice in ''Fences'' and Angela Bassett and Delroy Lindo in ''Joe Turner's Come and Gone.'' Lloyd Richards had the luxury of replacing Samuel L. Jackson with Charles Dutton after the Yale production of ''The Piano Lesson.'' Mr. Dutton embodies the ultimate example of a career trajectory. His starring roles on Broadway in ''Ma Rainey'' and ''The Piano Lesson'' led to film roles and the television show ''Roc,'' which draw heavily from the casts of ''The Piano Lesson'' and ''Two Trains Running.'' Those endeavors, in turn, positioned him to move into directing, with the acclaimed HBO mini-series ''The Corner.'' ''August's plays open doors,'' said Carl Gordon, who plays Ma Rainey's sideman Cutler and who also appeared in ''The Piano Lesson.'' ''Not just for more roles, but for challenging roles. You work with characters that have substance, that get you to stretch.'' Mr. Dutton recalled the exhilaration of first reading the ''Ma Rainey'' script at the O'Neill. ''We knew it was special,'' he said. ''We heard these stories. We knew this dialect. It was so full of black folklore. I remember wondering if white folks were going to get it.'' The success of Mr. Wilson's plays in reaching whites has not been without its ironies and controversies. The embrace of his work by regional theaters with largely white staffs and audiences has coincided with the demise of several of the most prominent black theaters, including Crossroads in New Brunswick, N.J., and the Negro Ensemble Company in Manhattan. In a speech to the Theater Communications Group in 1996, Mr. Wilson insisted on increased financing for black theater companies and disparaged color-blind casting as an ''aberrant idea'' meant to ''deny us our own humanity, our own history.'' Robert Brustein, the theater critic of The New Republic and the man whom Lloyd Richards replaced as dean of the Yale School of Drama, answered the diatribe with one of his own, likening Mr. Wilson's vision of separate development to Southern segregation. ''What next?'' he wrote. ''Separate schools? Separate washrooms? Separate drinking fountains?'' Playwright and critic met in a public debate at Town Hall in early 1997. And while neither convinced the other of anything, and many spectactors felt alienated by both, their exchange marked one of the few times in decades when a dispute born in the inward-facing realm of theater exploded into the larger world of ideas and politics. Mr. Wilson had come to a different kind of parting from his mentor, Lloyd Richards. The playwright and Mr. Mordecai in 1995 formed a partnership called Sageworks, which has produced every Wilson play since ''Seven Guitars.'' With ''Jitney,'' they replaced Mr. Richards with Mr. McClinton, who had staged many of Mr. Wilson's dramas in nonprofit theaters. While Mr. Wilson and Mr. Richards have remained on civil terms since, speaking privately and appearing jointly at theater conferences, the ascension of surrogate son over surrogate father serves as one more way of marking the 20 years since ''Ma Rainey'' made its debut in the O'Neill Center's barn. This production is the first of Mr. Wilson's to reach Broadway without any road engagements to refine it and build word-of-mouth. It also depends more directly on stars than any show since ''Fences'' with James Earl Jones. Ms. Goldberg, who was appearing on Broadway in her own one-woman show when the original ''Ma Rainey'' was running, had long expressed interest in taking the title role in a revival. Last March, Mr. Wilson met with her and discovered that she had a seven-month block of time between films in early 2003. When it turned out that Mr. Dutton had the same period available, plans moved forward to raise the necessary $2.5 million. The project proved so attractive that two of the Broadway producers of the initial ''Ma Rainey,'' Robert Cole and Frederick M. Zollo, claimed that they alone had the rights to a revival, and ultimately they were included with Sageworks and Ms. Goldberg among the investors. Still, ''Ma Rainey'' had compiled an advance sale of only $500,000 by the time previews began in late January. (It has since grown to $875,000, comparable to the figure for the last two Wilson dramas on Broadway, ''Seven Guitars'' and ''King Hedley II,'' Mr. Mordecai said.) Meanwhile, Mr. Dutton and Ms. Goldberg carped in a recent issue of Time Out magazine about the sort of matters -- accommodations for supporting actors, the order of their own names in title billing -- that are usually confined to backstage conversations or negotiated through agents rather than the media. As of Thursday, critics and audiences will decide for themselves whether any of the brouhaha has affected the production onstage. Whatever his gripes to Time Out, Mr. Dutton also recognizes an obligation, both to the memory of the original and to the theatergoers who may have been in diapers or on training wheels when the August Wilson era began. ''I've had to get the original out of my system,'' Mr. Dutton said. ''Because, I make no bones about it, for a long time my dream was to come back to Broadway with as many of the original folks -- director, actors, tech -- as are left. I had to let it go. I had to say the definitive production happened. It was August's discovery, my discovery, Lloyd's re-emergence. It had all those great circumstances. But that's not to disparage this one. Realizing now that there's a new generation of audience members who've never seen 'Ma Rainey,' I'm very hyped up. There's a sense of history. I want them to understand what the big deal was all about.''

Subject: Accidents of Fate And Faith From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 10:39:43 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/1995/01/25/theater/theaterspecial/03faith.html?ex=1128571200&en=a5dc5f4f477423d4&ei=5070 January 25, 1995 Accidents of Fate And Faith By VINCENT CANBY CHICAGO — August Wilson's on a roll. That was made boisterously clear on Monday night at the opening of his big, fine, tragicomic new melodrama, 'Seven Guitars,' at the Goodman Theater here. From its mysterious and funny opening scene, which is actually a prologue, until its haunted conclusion, the play runs approximately three hours. Yet 'Seven Guitars' seldom loses momentum. It displays a narrative sweep and an almost biblical richness of language and character that distinguish Mr. Wilson from virtually all other contemporary American playwrights. His most singular gift: the ability to astonish his audiences and to find laughter in tales that, you know from the start, are not funny at all, at least in terms of conventional theater. In the past, this Pulitzer Prize-winning dramatist ('Fences,' 'The Piano Lesson') has been compared to Eugene O'Neill and Arthur Miller. Now 'Seven Guitars' suggests something of Elmer Rice's 'Street Scene' and Sidney Kingsley's 'Dead End.' None of these comparisons easily stick, however. Mr. Wilson's methods, concerns and influences do not vary from play to play. He confounds us by speaking in a voice we understand but cannot place. The reason is simple: he's an original. In 'Seven Guitars,' Mr. Wilson continues his explorations into the heritage of black Americans who have come out of the South with the expectation of finding new lives in the North. The time is 1948, three years after the end of World War II and the year of the Joe Louis-Billy Conn heavyweight title match. The place is the Hill District of Pittsburgh, specifically a dilapidated three-story wooden house and its silty backyard, where, for the playwright's purposes, the world gathers. Right from the start, you are aware that in spite of all its realistic physical details, 'Seven Guitars' is set in a world where miracles and magic are not unknown. Three men and two women have come together in the backyard to drink and eat after the funeral of Floyd (Schoolboy) Barton, their charmed friend, a musician who seems to have departed suddenly and not from natural causes. The buxom, hearty Louise (Michele Shay) tries to lift the gloom by sashaying around the yard singing a raucous song ('Anybody Here Wanna Try My Cabbage?'), which is appreciated with a desperation that matches hers. Suddenly, casually, Vera (Viola Davis) says, 'Did you see them angels out there in the cemetery?' It seems that two of the others also saw the angels. There were six of them, all dressed in black and acting like men from the funeral home. Vera, a sweet, no-nonsense young woman, describes what happened when she was leaving the cemetery and turned for a last look at the grave. Floyd, held up by the angels, was ascending toward heaven. 'Seven Guitars' flashes back from the prologue to tell the story of Floyd (Jerome Preston Bates) and his final week on earth. Floyd is sinuous, smooth-talking and utterly sincere. He's a singing, guitar-playing scoundrel, who always has the best intentions. His last week is a full one. He and Vera are reconciled after he has served a six-month sentence for threatening to blow up the jail. Through an accident of fate, his career as a recording artist seems to be taking off. He is also reunited with his backup musicians, Red Carter (Tommy Hollis) and Canewell (Ruben Santiago-Hudson). Playing equally prominent roles in this eventful week are Ruby (Rosalyn Coleman), Louise's sexy young niece from Alabama, who has been sent north to get her out of trouble, and Hedley (Albert Hall), this play's version of a favorite Wilson character: the idiot savant. Hedley expresses the playwright's bluntest, most savage outrage at the black man's condition in a white American society. When Floyd trespasses in a way for which there is no forgiveness, Hedley is the instrument of his unsought-for salvation. More of the plot need not be told. Though the frame of 'Seven Guitars' is limited and employs only seven characters, Mr. Wilson writes so vividly that the play seems to have the narrative scope and depth of a novel. When the curtain comes down, it's difficult to remember which characters you've actually seen and which you have come to know only through stories recollected on stage. Walter Dallas, the artistic director of the Freedom Theater in Philadelphia, has directed 'Seven Guitars' with the same feeling for the grace of Mr. Wilson's work that Lloyd Richards brought to the earlier plays. The Goodman production is first-rate, from the strikingly atmospheric production design by Scott Bradley through the performances. There's a communal joy about the production that reflects the sense of community Mr. Wilson dramatizes. Talk among these characters can evolve into impromptu musical numbers with such ease that there are no seams between dialogue and song. When Floyd demonstrates how his mother used to sing 'The Lord's Prayer,' you hear something of the origins of the blues. Mr. Wilson gets carried away and sometimes overwrites. It's jarring toward the end when the enchanting Ruby, the country girl who walks around with her pelvis locked into the thrust-forward mode, is moved to say, 'Everybody's got a dream, and some people's dreams are too big for them.' There's still editing to be done, but not much. 'Seven Guitars' reminds me of Mark Twain's comments in 'Life on the Mississippi' about the way the river works. Like the river, the play winds and bends, its placid surface giving no indication of the force within. Suddenly it makes breathtaking leaps. Twain said of the Mississippi that it's always shortening itself, and that in a few million years New Orleans will be next to St. Louis. At this moment, 'Seven Guitars' plays with such speed that you begin the journey one minute, and the next thing you know, you're leaving the theater on a high.

Subject: August Wilson's 100-Year Memory From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 10:38:34 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/27/theater/newsandfeatures/27wils.html?ex=1272254400&en=42557c3ffd6c354a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss April 27, 2005 August Wilson's 100-Year Memory By CHARLES ISHERWOOD NEW HAVEN - The need to honor history is a vital theme in the work of August Wilson, whose landmark cycle of plays about the African-American experience in the 20th century will at last be complete, after more than 20 years of work, when the final installment in the series, 'Radio Golf,' opens here on Thursday at the Yale Repertory Theater. Fittingly, to write the culminating play in the cycle, Mr. Wilson embarked on a pilgrimage to his own past, touring the places that have meant the most to him. 'I wanted to hit all my touchstones,' he said in a recent conversation, looking sharp in his signature cap and loose-fitting jacket. Mr. Wilson, who turns 60 on Wednesday, was briskly burning through half a pack of Marlboro Lights in his unofficial office, a corner of a bookstore patio a few steps from the theater. 'I wrote part of the play in Pittsburgh, where I was born and raised,' he said, 'and part of it in St. Paul, where I lived for 12 years. I finished it up in Seattle, where I live now. And coming back to New Haven fits in perfectly. There's something poetic about it. It feels right.' If Mr. Wilson's spiritual home remains the Hill District of Pittsburgh, where 'Radio Golf' and all the rest of the cycle except 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' is set, his first and most enduring professional home was the Yale Rep. In 1984, 'Ma Rainey' opened there under the direction of Lloyd Richards, who then headed the theater and the Yale School of Drama. Mr. Richards produced and directed four more cycle plays at the Rep - including two Pulitzer Prize winners, 'Fences' and 'The Piano Lesson' - before the director's ill health, among other factors, caused Mr. Wilson to seek out other climes and new collaborators. James Bundy, the current artistic director at Yale Rep and head of the drama school, said he was more than eager to have Mr. Wilson return for his valedictory lap. 'August's work here transformed the school of drama,' Mr. Bundy said, 'and has made it a destination for hundreds of students who have been inspired by his plays.' 'Radio Golf' is directed by Timothy Douglas, a Yale Drama School graduate and former associate artistic director at the Actors Theater of Louisville, where he directed productions of 'Jitney' and 'The Piano Lesson.' The play's five cast members, including Anthony Chisholm, have all been seen in Wilson productions. Set in 1997 in a real estate redevelopment office in the Hill District, 'Radio Golf' is itself about a spiritual homecoming. It forms a companion piece to Mr. Wilson's most recent play, 'Gem of the Ocean,' set in 1904 and seen on Broadway earlier this season. 'I went at this haphazardly,' Mr. Wilson said, referring to the cycle, which consists of 10 plays, one set in each decade of the century. 'But then I looked up one day and saw I had only the first and last plays to do. I thought it would be perfect to relate them. The two form a kind of umbrella for the rest to sit up under.' Mr. Wilson bridged the plays, as he has done with some others in the cycle, by writing in 'Radio Golf' about characters descended from those in 'Gem of the Ocean.' Harmond Wilks, the central character in the new play, is a slick, successful real estate mogul who is the grandson of the ambitious Caesar Wilks in 'Gem.' As the play opens, he and a partner are preparing to raze the run-down Hill District home of Aunt Ester, also seen in 'Gem' and referred to in other plays in the cycle. Aunt Ester, said to have lived for more than 300 years, unites the Africa of the ancestral past with the struggles of the present and represents the African-American cultural tradition as a boundless spiritual resource. In 'Radio Golf,' as the turn of the 21st century nears, black America is getting ready to wipe the last traces of this symbolic avatar from the city where she lived. 'For me, 'Radio Golf' is basically about the black middle class, and what I see as their failure to return the sophistication and expertise and resources they have gained to the communities and the people they belong to,' Mr. Wilson said. 'They've forgotten who they are.' Although his plays have made him a comparatively wealthy man, and he has worked comfortably within the mainstream theater for two decades - with appearances on Broadway for all but one of the plays in the cycle ('Jitney') - Mr. Wilson remains deeply attached to the sights, sounds and symbolic significance of the gritty Hill District where he grew up. He quickly rattles off statistics about its decline: 'From a community in 1965 that had 55,000 people, we're down to a few thousand,' he says. 'Back then, you had two lumber yards, three wallpaper and paint stores, nine drugstores within a five-minute walk.' It was a 'poor but vibrant' place, he says, that has since been left to the depredations of cultural and political neglect. Mr. Wilson has devoted much of the cycle to conjuring onstage the lively pulse of the community that resided there, celebrating the beauty that took root in the squalor, the heroism inherent in the struggle to get by (and maybe get ahead). He acknowledges that inhabiting the souls of characters who have firmly left this history behind, namely the golf-playing men from his new play, proved a tough proposition. These are not really his people. As befits a man who has spent much of the last two decades doggedly creating a magnum opus of singular breadth and depth, Mr. Wilson sometimes has the charmingly out-of-touch air of a latter-day Rip Van Winkle. Asked if he thinks African-Americans have had a greater collective impact on movies and television than theater, he says, 'I can't answer that,' then adds, 'I don't see it in TV.' When challenged, he backtracks with a laugh: 'I don't watch TV. That's not part of my reality.' He has never been interested in writing movies either, and says there was an 11-year stretch when he did not even walk into a movie theater. Clearly, Mr. Wilson will remain a man of the theater, even after the long journey of the cycle has been completed. It is not over just yet, however. The painstaking development of his plays involves productions at more than one regional theater before a Broadway berth, and 'Radio Golf' is to begin previews at the Mark Taper Forum in Los Angeles in July. He speaks without rancor of the disappointingly short Broadway runs of his last two plays, 'Gem of the Ocean' and 'King Hedley II,' which received mixed notices. He chooses instead to point out that while musicals dominate the landscape today, the atmosphere on Broadway was grimmer when he first arrived. 'In the 1980's, half of the Broadway houses were empty a lot,' he recalls. 'Now you can't get a theater.' Mr. Wilson already has a new play in his sights, a comedy. And he is happy to provide a dizzying description. It involves a war between coffin makers and undertakers, Death taking a holiday, Queen Victoria and the Platters, Benny Goodman and a magic radio. Punctuating the story's strange convolutions with jabs from a last smoldering stub, he tosses out snatches of dialogue already seasoned with his imagistic flair, as his eyes dance with relish. He is, in short, suddenly transformed into one of the signature seer-prophets from his cycle, heading toward a new promised land of his own imagining.

Subject: August Wilson's 'Piano Lesson' From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 10:34:55 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/17/theater/reviews/17piano.html?ex=1128484800&en=2e462c0bd9e5cb3e&ei=5070 April 17, 1990 A Family Confronts Its History in August Wilson's 'Piano Lesson' By FRANK RICH The piano is the first thing the audience hears in ''The Piano Lesson,'' the new August Wilson play at the Walter Kerr Theater. Three hours later, it seems as if the music, by turns bubbling and thunderous, has never stopped. Though Mr. Wilson won a Pulitzer Prize last week for this work, no one need worry that he is marching to an establishment beat. ''The Piano Lesson'' is joyously an African-American play: it has its own spacious poetry, its own sharp angle on a nation's history, its own metaphorical idea of drama and its own palpable ghosts that roar right through the upstairs window of the household where the action unfolds. Like other Wilson plays, ''The Piano Lesson'' seems to sing even when it is talking. But it isn't all of America that is singing. The central fact of black American life - the long shadow of slavery - transposes the voices of Mr. Wilson's characters, and of the indelible actors who inhabit them, to a key that rattles history and shakes the audience on both sides of the racial divide. Set in the Pittsburgh of 1936, just midway in time between ''Joe Turner's Come and Gone'' and ''Fences,'' Mr. Wilson's new play echoes his others by reaching back toward Africa and looking ahead to modern urban America even as it remains focused on the intimate domestic canvas of a precise bygone year. Though ''The Piano Lesson'' is about a fight over the meaning of a long span of history, its concerns are dramatized within a simple battle between a sister and a brother over the possession of a musical instrument. The keeper of the piano, a family heirloom, is a young widow named Berniece (S. Epatha Merkerson), who lets it languish unused in the parlor of the house she shares with her uncle and daughter. Her brother, Boy Willie (Charles S. Dutton), barges in unannounced from Mississippi, intending to sell the antique to buy a farm on the land his family worked as slaves and sharecroppers. One need only look at the majestic upright piano itself to feel its power as a symbolic repository of a people's soul. Sculptured into its rich wood are totemic human figures whose knife-drawn features suggest both the pride of African culture and the grotesque scars of slavery. As it happens, both the pride and scars run deep in the genealogy of the siblings at center stage. Their great-grandfather, who carved the images, lost his wife and young son when they were traded away for the piano. Years later, Berniece and Boy Willie's father was killed after he took the heirloom from a new generation of white owners. In ''The Piano Lesson,'' the disposition of the piano becomes synonymous with the use to which the characters put their ancestral legacy. For Berniece, the instrument must remain a somber shrine to a tragic past. For Boy Willie, the piano is a stake to the freedom his father wanted him to have. To Mr. Wilson, both characters are right - and wrong. Just as Berniece is too enslaved by history to get on with her life, so Boy Willie is too cavalier about his family's heritage to realize that money alone cannot buy him independence and equality in a white man's world. Like all Wilson protagonists, both the brother and sister must take a journey, at times a supernatural one, to the past if they are to seize the future. They cannot be reconciled with each other until they have had a reconciliation with the identity that is etched in their family tree, as in the piano, with blood. Mr. Dutton and Ms. Merkerson prove to be extraordinary adversaries through every twist of their no-holds-barred dispute. They command equal respect and affection through antithetical acting styles. As he first revealed as Levee, the discordant trumpet player in Mr. Wilson's ''Ma Rainey's Black Bottom,'' the burly, broadly smiling Mr. Dutton is a force of nature on stage: a human cyclone who, as Berniece says, sows noise, confusion and trouble wherever he goes. Here is that rare actor who can announce that he's on fire and make an audience believe he might actually burn down the theater. Yet the impressive Ms. Merkerson remains quiet and dignified holding her ground against him - at least up to a point. In the evening's most devastating scene, she slugs her brother in impotent fury, as if her small fists and incantatory wails might somehow halt the revenge-fueled cycle of violence that killed her father and her husband and their fathers before them. Although the second act contains its dead ends, repetitions and excessive authorial announcements - an O'Neill-like excess in most of this writer's plays - Mr. Wilson prevents the central conflict in ''The Piano Lesson'' from becoming too nakedly didactic by enclosing it within an extended household of memorable characters. The ebb and flow of diurnal activity in Berniece's home thickens the main theme while offering a naturalistic picture of a transitional black America in an era when movies, skyscrapers and airplanes were fresh wonders of the world. A Wilson play feels truly lived in - so much so in Lloyd Richards's supple production that activities like the cooking of eggs, the washing of dishes, and the comings and goings from an audibly flushed toilet never seem like stage events, but become subliminal beats in the rhythm of a self-contained universe. Still, the play's real music is in the language, all of which is gloriously served by the ensemble company that Mr. Richards has assembled and honed during the more than two years that ''The Piano Lesson'' has traveled to New York by way of the country's resident theaters. Carl Gordon, as an uncle who has spent 27 years working for the railroad, and Lou Myers, as another uncle who has hit his own long road as a traveling musician, trade tall and small tales of hard-won practical philosophy, political wisdom, women and whisky -some of them boisterously funny, others unexpectedly touching. At other moments, their colloquial verbal cadences trail off seamlessly into riffs of actual song, whether piano blues or roof-raising vocal harmonies, that express their autobiographies of pride, defiance and suffering as eloquently as their words. A younger generation of dispossessed black men with a different set of experiences and aspirations is just as vividly represented by Tommy Hollis, as a Bible-toting elevator man with dreams of leading his own Christian flock, and Rocky Carroll, as a wide-eyed rural drifter dazzled by his first exposure to the big city. A scene in which Mr. Carroll briefly courts Ms. Merkerson by presenting her with a dollar bottle of ''French perfume'' is, in writing, staging and performance, a masterly romantic duet of crossed signals and unacknowledged longings that seems to float up from a distant, innocent time like a hallucination. While there are no white characters in ''The Piano Lesson,'' the presence of white America is felt throughout - and not just by dint of past history. Boy Willie repeatedly and pointedly announces that he will sell the piano to a white man who he's heard is roaming through black neighborhoods ''looking to buy musical instruments.'' Whatever happens to the piano, however, the playwright makes it clear that the music in ''The Piano Lesson'' is not up for sale. That haunting music belongs to the people who have lived it, and it has once again found miraculous voice in a play that August Wilson has given to the American stage.

Subject: For Blacks, a Dream in Decline From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 06:32:36 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/weekinreview/23uchi.html?ex=1287720000&en=6032fcd106abbd75&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 23, 2005 For Blacks, a Dream in Decline By LOUIS UCHITELLE THE Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. set forth the goal. Civil rights and union membership were to be intertwined. The labor movement, Dr. King wrote in 1958, 'must concentrate its powerful forces on bringing economic emancipation to white and Negro by organizing them together in social equality.' That happened in the 1960's and 1970's. But then unions lost bargaining power and members. And while labor leaders called attention to the overall decline, few took notice that blacks were losing much more ground than whites. In the last five years, that trend accelerated. Despite a growing economy, the number of African-Americans in unions has fallen by 14.4 percent since 2000, while white membership is down 5.4 percent. For a while in the 1980's, one out of every four black workers was a union member; now it is closer to one in seven. This loss of better-paying jobs helps to explain why blacks are doing worse than any other group in the current recovery. Labor leaders have acknowledged the disproportionate damage to African-Americans, but they decline to make special efforts to organize blacks and offset the decrease, saying that all groups need help. That lack of priority angers one prominent black scholar. 'The future of black workers is very bleak indeed if they lose their place in the union movement,' said William Julius Wilson, a professor of sociology and social policy at Harvard. 'I would hope there would be an effort on the part of union leaders, white and black, to address this very important issue. They haven't done so as yet.' The decline was particularly sharp last year. Overall union membership fell by 304,000, and blacks accounted for 55 percent of that drop, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, even though whites outnumber blacks six to one in unions (12.4 million to 2.1 million). The trend seems likely to continue and perhaps accelerate as General Motors and its principal parts supplier, Delphi, cut costs in their struggle to be profitable. 'We have lost 20,000 members since the end of 2000 in Detroit and its suburbs alone,' said Linda Ewing, director of research for the United Auto Workers, 'and a large number of the workers in the auto and parts plants in this area are black.' Unions, like other institutions in the post-World War II economy, were slow to admit African-Americans to the club, and there is still resistance today in some of the higher-paying skilled trades. Yet blacks came to rely on unions even more than working class whites did to gain entry into the middle class, through jobs that gave them annual wage increases and company-paid health insurance and pensions. Even now, the percentage of black workers who are in unions is slightly greater than the percentage of unionized white workers: 15.1 versus 12.2. 'Every survey shows that blacks are the group that most wants to be unionized,' said Richard Freeman, a Harvard labor economist. Immigration, retirement, automation, the shifting of work overseas, low seniority and privatization have all played a role in the lopsided decline of unionized jobs held by African-Americans. That decline is especially noticeable in manufacturing and the federal government, two strongholds of black employment that have gone through cutbacks in union workers in recent years. The cutbacks are particularly severe in the auto industry. In addition to the latest problems at G.M., Ford Motor said Thursday that it would soon announce 'significant plant closings.' The impact on blacks has gradually drawn the attention of labor leaders, including John J. Sweeney, president of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. 'The percentage of black workers who have been knocked out of union jobs is one of the little-known tragedies of the last five years,' he said. Despite this damage, the federation is not making a special effort to sign up more African-Americans in other industries, Mr. Sweeney said. 'We are going to be organizing more blacks,' he explained, 'but we are also going to be organizing more Latinos and more women.' Mr. Sweeney's reluctance to single out blacks has its counterpart in the breakaway union movement, Change to Win, which promises more aggressive organizing. Rather than focus on any particular group of workers, said Edgar Romney, secretary-treasurer of the new coalition, 'we are targeting industries and communities in our organizing effort.' Blue-collar workers earn high pay in manufacturing jobs, and the sharp decline in black union membership in that sector has helped to pull down the median weekly wage of all black workers, union and nonunion alike. Thus far this year, the median weekly wage earned by blacks fell by 5 percent, to $523, adjusted for inflation, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Whites as a group are also experiencing a drop in their median weekly wage, but for them the decline this year is less than 1 percent, to $677, adjusted for inflation. Some labor economists bridle at such comparisons. Robert Topel of the University of Chicago argues that for many years the wage gap between whites and blacks either shrank or remained stable, after adjusting for differences in education, experience and other factors. This occurred even as union power declined, he said. 'If you ask me for a list of things that would be more important in understanding racial disparities and economic success, unionism would not be high on the list,' Mr. Topel said. 'Education, development of skills and family environment all play much bigger roles than collective bargaining power.' The decline in black union membership is not simply the result of the erosion of employment in manufacturing. The Service Employees International Union, for example, represented for years large numbers of African-Americans employed in food service, janitorial work and nursing home care. Many were women. As they retired, Hispanics and Asians replaced them, in the jobs and as union members, said Patricia Ford, a former executive vice president of the S.E.I.U. 'You can see the change from what was traditionally African-American to Hispanic,' Ms. Ford said. 'That is the most striking.' Union membership among Hispanics, in fact, has risen gradually in this decade, to 1.7 million last year. That is partly a result of special efforts to organize Hispanics in service industries, Mr. Romney said. On another front, privatization and outsourcing have eaten away at federal employment of black workers represented by the American Federation of Government Employees, which says that nearly 25 percent of its 211,000 members are black. African-Americans make up an even higher percentage of the union's members at the operations that the Bush administration is turning over to private contractors. These include laundries at veterans' hospitals, ground maintenance and food service at government installations and security guards at numerous federal buildings - much of it work that paid only $15,000 to $20,000 a year, but that came with pensions and health insurance. The union's leaders resist viewing what is happening in racial terms. 'We see it as a class issue rather than a race issue,' said Sharon Pinnock, the A.F.G.E.'s director for membership and organization. 'It is impacting all workers, black and white.' Automation at the Postal Service, mainly in the form of sorting machines that require many fewer workers, has cut into the ranks of the National Association of Letter Carriers and the American Postal Workers Union, both with high percentages of blacks among their members. And then there is the tendency of many corporations to move operations to suburbs from downtown locations. In the process, unionized African-American workers are often replaced by nonunion workers, in many cases white. The Communications Workers of America makes that complaint, citing customer service call center operations as one example. 'They gradually move to the suburbs, eliminating African-American union members in the city,' said George Kohl, the union's senior director of collective bargaining. Mr. Sweeney said such stories anger him. 'We have learned a lot from the civil rights movement; it is important that we highlight the most egregious offenses,' he said. 'But we have to focus on all the workers who are getting hurt.'

Subject: Hyphenated Global Citizen From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 08:40:46 (EST) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: ...Immigration, retirement, automation, the shifting of work overseas, low seniority and privatization have all played a role in the lopsided decline of unionized jobs held by African-Americans. That decline is especially noticeable in manufacturing and the federal government, two strongholds of black employment that have gone through cutbacks in union workers in recent years. 'You can see the change from what was traditionally African-American to Hispanic,' Ms. Ford said. 'That is the most striking.' Union membership among Hispanics, in fact, has risen gradually in this decade, to 1.7 million last year. That is partly a result of special efforts to organize Hispanics in service industries, Mr. Romney said. ..... Watched 3 hours of 2003 fannie freddie congressional hearings on cspan3 last night (who needs girlfriend or life when we have political/financial/economic Soap operas). They are going to save certain functions of government to help the poor/black/minorities keep up housing and the 'Amercian Dream' program where they spend 2 trillion to bring up the lower class. Several black/minority congress people like this idea and are very upset with hispanic looking regulator trying to bring sanity to accounting rules - he says he needs more power to reign in RISK - he is from texas and tired of seeing all the gap in whites nice homes with hispanic minorities slum homes too - but says however - we need transparent accounting. Johnny think of cspan interview he see of a guy called Zogby - talking about arab's and muslims - he get much racial hatred over cspan phone lines - and he say to callers I am a 3rd generation american - why is RACE only thing your callers are seeing? If blacks or hispanics want to save Jobs - or even arab peoples - johnny think they need to bring global human rights to the world, silly to talk of racial/class differences and UNION protection in america while africa make all the H3 hummers, India do all the call center work, and china do all the manufacturing. Until we bring human/worker rights to africa, remove caste system of India, and kill communism in China - johnny5 predict things just going to get worse for black/white/hispanic/arab and all other workers in USA. Socrates says he was a citizen of the world - but Roosevelt said this: http://www.rpatrick.com/USA/americanism/ There is no room in this country for hyphenated Americanism. When I refer to hyphenated Americans, I do not refer to naturalized Americans. Some of the very best Americans I have ever known were naturalized Americans, Americans born abroad. But a hyphenated American is not an American at all. This is just as true of the man who puts 'native' before the hyphen as of the man who puts German or Irish or English or French before the hyphen. Americanism is a matter of the spirit and of the soul. Our allegiance must be purely to the United States. We must unsparingly condemn any man who holds any other allegiance. But if he is heartily and singly loyal to this Republic, then no matter where he was born, he is just as good an American as any one else. The one absolutely certain way of bringing this nation to ruin, of preventing all possibility of its continuing to be a nation at all, would be to permit it to become a tangle of squabbling nationalities, an intricate knot of German-Americans, Irish-Americans, English-Americans, French-Americans, Scandinavian-Americans or Italian-Americans, each preserving its separate nationality, each at heart feeling more sympathy with Europeans of that nationality, than with the other citizens of the American Republic. The men who do not become Americans and nothing else are hyphenated Americans; and there ought to be no room for them in this country. The man who calls himself an American citizen and who yet shows by his actions that he is primarily the citizen of a foreign land, plays a thoroughly mischievous part in the life of our body politic. He has no place here; and the sooner he returns to the land to which he feels his real heart-allegiance, the better it will be for every good American. There is no such thing as a hyphenated American who is a good American. The only man who is a good American is the man who is an American and nothing else. For an American citizen to vote as a German-American, an Irish-American, or an English-American, is to be a traitor to American institutions; and those hyphenated Americans who terrorize American politicians by threats of the foreign vote are engaged in treason to the American Republic. Americanization The foreign-born population of this country must be an Americanized population - no other kind can fight the battles of America either in war or peace. It must talk the language of its native-born fellow-citizens, it must possess American citizenship and American ideals. It must stand firm by its oath of allegiance in word and deed and must show that in very fact it has renounced allegiance to every prince, potentate, or foreign government. It must be maintained on an American standard of living so as to prevent labor disturbances in important plants and at critical times. None of these objects can be secured as long as we have immigrant colonies, ghettos, and immigrant sections, and above all they cannot be assured so long as we consider the immigrant only as an industrial asset. The immigrant must not be allowed to drift or to be put at the mercy of the exploiter. Our object is to not to imitate one of the older racial types, but to maintain a new American type and then to secure loyalty to this type. We cannot secure such loyalty unless we make this a country where men shall feel that they have justice and also where they shall feel that they are required to perform the duties imposed upon them. The policy of 'Let alone' which we have hitherto pursued is thoroughly vicious from two stand-points. By this policy we have permitted the immigrants, and too often the native-born laborers as well, to suffer injustice. Moreover, by this policy we have failed to impress upon the immigrant and upon the native-born as well that they are expected to do justice as well as to receive justice, that they are expected to be heartily and actively and single-mindedly loyal to the flag no less than to benefit by living under it. We cannot afford to continue to use hundreds of thousands of immigrants merely as industrial assets while they remain social outcasts and menaces any more than fifty years ago we could afford to keep the black man merely as an industrial asset and not as a human being. We cannot afford to build a big industrial plant and herd men and women about it without care for their welfare. We cannot afford to permit squalid overcrowding or the kind of living system which makes impossible the decencies and necessities of life. We cannot afford the low wage rates and the merely seasonal industries which mean the sacrifice of both individual and family life and morals to the industrial machinery. We cannot afford to leave American mines, munitions plants, and general resources in the hands of alien workmen, alien to America and even likely to be made hostile to America by machinations such as have recently been provided in the case of the two foreign embassies in Washington. We cannot afford to run the risk of having in time of war men working on our railways or working in our munition plants who would in the name of duty to their own foreign countries bring destruction to us. Recent events have shown us that incitements to sabotage and strikes are in the view of at least two of the great foreign powers of Europe within their definition of neutral practices. What would be done to us in the name of war if these things are done to us in the name of neutrality? One America All of us, no matter from what land our parents came, no matter in what way we may severally worship our Creator, must stand shoulder to shoulder in a united America for the elimination of race and religious prejudice. We must stand for a reign of equal justice to both big and small. We must insist on the maintenance of the American standard of living. We must stand for an adequate national control which shall secure a better training of our young men in time of peace, both for the work of peace and for the work of war. We must direct every national resource, material and spiritual, to the task not of shirking difficulties, but of training our people to overcome difficulties. Our aim must be, not to make life easy and soft, not to soften soul and body, but to fit us in virile fashion to do a great work for all mankind. This great work can only be done by a mighty democracy, with these qualities of soul, guided by those qualities of mind, which will both make it refuse to do injustice to any other nation, and also enable it to hold its own against aggression by any other nation. In our relations with the outside world, we must abhor wrongdoing, and disdain to commit it, and we must no less disdain the baseness of spirit which lamely submits to wrongdoing. Finally and most important of all, we must strive for the establishment within our own borders of that stern and lofty standard of personal and public neutrality which shall guarantee to each man his rights, and which shall insist in return upon the full performance by each man of his duties both to his neighbor and to the great nation whose flag must symbolize in the future as it has symbolized in the past the highest hopes of all mankind.

Subject: Investors of the World, Unite! From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 30, 2005 at 05:21:25 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/business/mutfund/09shelf.html?ex=1286510400&en=f67482275ae4c3c0&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 9, 2005 Investors of the World, Unite! By PAUL B. BROWN LONG before Page 1, where he describes today's financial environment as 'a pathological mutation' of capitalism, John C. Bogle, the founder and former chief executive of the Vanguard Group of mutual funds, makes clear what went wrong and who is to blame. From the book's dedication (to his 12 grandchildren): 'my generation has left America with much to be set right.' From the acknowledgments: 'Capitalism has been moving in the wrong direction. We need to reverse its course so that the system is once again in the interest of stockholder-owners rather than in the interest of managers.' In case anyone has missed the point, Mr. Bogle, in his introduction, deliberately echoes 'The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire,' by Edward Gibbon, to underscore that the markets have lost their way, adding that by the end of that epic, 'the Roman Empire was no more.' Subtle Mr. Bogle is not. Readers understand that, even when reading the resounding blurbs at the front of the book. They are from the likes of Arthur Levitt, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Henry Kaufman, former vice chairman of Salomon Brothers; and Burton G. Malkiel, a Princeton economics professor. In fact, all you really need to know about where Mr. Bogle is heading is the title: 'The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism: How the Financial System Undermined Social Ideals, Damaged Trust in the Markets, Robbed Investors of Trillions - and What to Do About It.' (Yale University Press, $25). The book will be in stores soon. Here is Mr. Bogle's clear, well-reasoned and forcibly stated argument in a nutshell: Over the last 100 years, we have moved from 'owner's capitalism,' a system in which the bulk of investment returns went to the people who put up the risk capital, to 'manager's capitalism,' which provides 'vastly disproportionate rewards' to those hired to watch their interests - people like company executives and mutual fund managers. How does he feel about the change? 'Managers' capitalism is a betrayal of owners' capitalism, a system that worked with remarkable effectiveness for the better part of two centuries.' And he blames three groups for this shift: Managers of corporate America He is particularly critical of how management chooses to pay itself. The 'megagrants' of stock options to senior executives, he says, can lead to managers trying to make the stock price climb as quickly as possible, potentially forsaking the needs of the company they are supposed to serve. He also criticizes the 'onset of quarterly earnings guidance, accompanied by financial engineering designed to produce the promised results,' a situation that he says has been 'abetted by the attendant laxity in traditional accounting standards.' Ultimately, he holds corporate boards responsible for allowing both situations to occur. 'The failure of corporate governance lies at the heart of why corporate America went astray,' he writes. Financial institutions 'The stockholders of investment America - dominated by our giant financial institutions - hold awesome power,' Mr. Bogle writes. 'Yet these firms all too rarely exercise that power.' He is referring to institutions such as investment and pension funds. They don't exercise that power, he says, because they don't hold a stock long enough to care about how the company is run. They just want the share price to go up, abrogating what he sees as their ownership responsibility. Mutual Funds Fees and charges are far too high, Mr. Bogle contends, adding that 'the fund industry is the consummate example of managers' capitalism gone awry.' 'While the shareholder wealth consumed by the managers of corporate America has been far from trivial,' he writes, 'the shareholder wealth consumed by the managers of mutual funds has been enormous.' He adds: 'More than one-fifth of the robust annual gross returns generated for investors in the financial markets - stocks, bond and money markets alike - during the past two decades has been siphoned off by fund managers,' who, he contends, have placed their own interests 'ahead of fund owners.' None of these allegations are new. Critics of corporate America have long argued that pay and stock option awards for executives no longer have any basis in reality. (Mr. Bogle points out that in 1980, total pay for the average C.E.O. was 42 times that of the average worker; by 2004, the multiple was 280.) Other arguments have also been heard before. There is the idea that investment banks and pension funds, with few exceptions, have not taken a stand against decisions of companies in which they invest. Finally, the firm that Mr. Bogle founded, Vanguard, has argued for years that the fees charged by its competitors are far too high, which, of course, is one way to get across the point that Vanguard is a lower-cost alternative. But just because the arguments aren't new or may be somewhat self-serving doesn't detract from their legitimacy. On the other hand, you can certainly quibble with his proposed solutions. After all his tough talk, they are surprisingly weak. A main recommendation from Mr. Bogle, who describes himself as a lifelong Republican, calls for a new 'national commission to recommend policies that respond to the development of our 'intermediation society.' ' You would have expected him to call for free-market solutions to what are, after all, free-market problems. Still, the fact that he is standing up and railing against a system that has helped make him well known should generate some attention. Ultimately, as even he concedes, it is up to the shareholders to insist that things change. After all, he asks, 'when the owners of corporate America don't care about governance, who on earth should care?'

Subject: Pete watch out for Nano Silver From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 20:34:04 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: You say you are going to profit off of future medicine as we all get sicker and older with healthcare type stocks - well Pete perhaps - but maybe not in monetary ways - but in technological ways - what do you think? http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=1401 SILVER KILLS VIRUSES, STUDY FINDS Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com In a groundbreaking study, the Journal of Nanotechnology has published a study that found silver nanoparticles kills HIV-1 and is likely to kill virtually any other virus. The study, which was conducted by the University of Texas and Mexico University, is the first medical study to ever explore the benefits of silver nanoparticles, according to Physorg. During the study, researchers used three different methods of limiting the size of the silver nanoparticles by using capping agents. The capping agents were foamy carbon, poly (PVP), and bovine serum albumin (BSA). The particles ranged in size from 1 to 10 nanometers depending on the method of capping. After incubating the HIV-1 virus at 37 C, the silver particles killed 100% of the virus within 3 hours for all three methods. The scientists believe that the silver particles bonded through glycoprotein knobs on the virus with spacing of about 22 nanometers in length. While further research is needed, researchers are optimistic that nanological silver may be the silver bullet to kill viruses. The researchers in the study said that they had already begin experiments using silver nanoparticles to kill what is known as the super bug (Methicillin resistant staphylococcus aureus). Already used as a topical antibiotic in the medical industry, silver may now come under consideration as an alternative to drugs when it comes to fighting previously untreatable viruses such as the Tamiflu resistant avian flu.

Subject: Re: Pete watch out for Nano Silver From: Pete Weis To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Tues, Nov 01, 2005 at 11:08:19 (EST) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I don't know if my wife and I expect to 'profit' much off of our healthcare stocks. We just hope we don't lose too much in the short term and have atleast some reasonable gains over the longer term. Anyway, I do believe the greater gains will be advances in health sciences which lead to improved health for us all. Just hope execs at these healthcare companies direct the capital gained from stock sales into mostly research and less into stock options for themselves!

Subject: Wal-Mart in Japan From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 17:39:32 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/29/business/29japanmart.html October 29, 2005 Wal-Mart Doubles Down on Its Investment in Japan By MARTIN FACKLER NIIZA, Japan - At first glance, this Seiyu supermarket on Tokyo's northern fringes looks like any other grocery store in order-obsessed Japan, with its spotless floors and perfectly arranged displays of everything from fresh tuna to diapers. But it does not take long to notice some differences. The aisles are wider than in the cramped stores typically found in Japan. Some items bear brand names unfamiliar in Japan, like Simply Basic and Sam's Club. Then there are the signs overhead with yellow smiley faces and the word 'Rollback' in English, just the way lower prices are announced at the American stores of Seiyu's corporate parent, Wal-Mart. Three years after entering Japan by buying a stake in Seiyu, Wal-Mart has yet to make a big splash here. Indeed, it looks dangerously close to falling on its smiley face. Seiyu, Japan's fourth-largest supermarket chain, has posted consecutive losses every year since Wal-Mart bought a stake in 2002. Its president resigned in July after failing to turn the company around. There have been almost no visible changes at most of Seiyu's 405 stores, prompting frustrated investors and analysts to ask why Wal-Mart is not doing more. 'Wal-Mart is in a real bind,' said Yasuyuki Sasaki, a retail analyst in Tokyo for Credit Suisse First Boston. 'Its way of doing business hasn't been accepted here.' Wal-Mart says all this is about to change. As early as next week, the company is expected to announce an ambitious new plan for Japan that will cost hundreds of millions of dollars over the next five years. Most of this new spending will go to overhauling half of Seiyu's stores by 2010, company executives predict. And many will resemble the renovated store in Niiza, which Wal-Mart calls a prototype for what it is betting will be the right mix of American and local retailing styles to appeal to Japan's notoriously finicky shoppers. For one, Wal-Mart says it will keep the Seiyu name, which is familiar to Japanese shoppers. Is Wal-Mart finally breaking away from its cautious path? Analysts here have not seen details of the plan, but they point out that Wal-Mart is, after all, Wal-Mart: a company with extensive resources, impressive technological skills and very deep pockets. They also say that Wal-Mart appears to be determined to stay in Japan, pointing to its decision last month to take a controlling stake of just over 50 percent in Seiyu by raising its total investment to $1.3 billion. 'Wal-Mart is starting to feel more confident,' said David Hamaty, who runs the Japan office of Kurt Salmon Associates, a retail consulting company. 'It's now moving into the growth phase. The next few years will be extremely critical for Wal-Mart here.' Success in Japan is important for Wal-Mart, the world's largest retail company. With sales flattening in the United States and fewer places left there to build new stores, the company must look overseas for growth. Japan is a tantalizing prize: Its $1.2 trillion retail market is the world's second-largest after the United States. Sales at Seiyu last year were the equivalent of $9.3 billion; Wal-Mart's were $256 billion. But Japan is also one of the world's most impenetrable markets. Its consumers demand high levels of quality and service. A complex network of distributors and wholesalers block retailers from buying directly from suppliers, impeding Wal-Mart's traditional strategy for cutting costs. Homegrown competitors like Aeon, Japan's largest supermarket chain, have already been lowering prices and erecting large-format stores. Several big foreign retailers have entered Japan and failed, including Carrefour, the French supermarket chain, which announced in March it will pull out of the country. One of the biggest challenges has been convincing suppliers to sell directly, bypassing costly middlemen. Wal-Mart has also spent heavily on behind-the-scenes improvements, including linking Seiyu stores into Wal-Mart's global computer system and training employees how to use it. It has also closed stores and cut the full-time work force. While some shoppers at Seiyu's model store in Niiza were impressed by the wider aisles and lower prices, a few expressed disappointment that the changes were not more extensive. Indeed, Carrefour failed because its supermarkets stocked too many Japanese products, rather than the high-end French foods shoppers wanted. Still, Wal-Mart appears to be ready, finally, to move more aggressively. The company has started upgrading 20 other stores at a total cost of about 9.6 billion yen ($83 million). That could mean Wal-Mart might spend about $800 million to renovate another 180 stores. The pace of renovations will pick up further next year. One part of the plan will most likely call for overhauling some 200 stores by 2010, said Wal-Mart's spokeswoman in Japan, Billie Cole. Seiyu is also building two huge distribution centers that Wal-Mart says will cut costs by allowing it to better control the flow of goods to stores. It has two sprawling 'supercenter' general merchandise stores and plans more, though the number may be limited because land is so scarce and expensive. The Niiza store certainly has a more spacious feel than is typical in Japan. Other changes came directly from the United States, like opening a space at the entrance for stacks of low-price items, displaying goods in their original shipping boxes and grouping together related products like dog food and flea collars. The store also has Japan-only innovations, like an Ikea-style padded area where children can play while parents shop. 'We do a lot of experimenting here to find what works in Japan,' said the store's manager, Fumihiko Sugo. Mr. Sugo says he is trying to sell more items from Wal-Mart's global buying operations. About 10 percent of the store's 60,000 items now come from Wal-Mart, ranging from toy cars and fleece jackets to Chinese-made toilet paper. Wal-Mart will not say how much of its inventory is now directly sourced, but it admits progress has been slow. It also says it is not pushing suppliers too hard, at least not yet. This may be to avoid repeating the failure of Carrefour, which entered Japan in 2000 vowing to bypass distributors and wholesalers, only to find some important suppliers refusing to sell to it at all. 'Some of the things Wal-Mart is doing here may be ahead of their time,' said Mr. Hamaty of Kurt Salmon. 'Their concepts are correct. But is Japan ready?'

Subject: The Exciting Adventures of Spider Man From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 11:42:59 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/science/25spid.html October 25, 2005 The Exciting Adventures of Spider Man By MOHI KUMAR Hundreds of glass vials with rubber stoppers sit in boxes on Norman I. Platnick's desk at the American Museum of Natural History, stacked like atoms in a crystal lattice. Inside the vials, magnified and refracted by the glass and the liquid it contains, are creatures ranging from itsy-bitsy to huge and hairy. Spiders - thousands of them, enough to send Miss Muffet into a coma - are pickling in alcohol, awaiting Dr. Platnick's perusal. Most are specimens collected from his own fieldwork, but many have been sent from various institutions around the world. Amid the mass of vials stand a light microscope and a computer - the basic equipment he needs to conduct his research: finding new spiders. Not simply new species, but new genuses and families, grouped by their similarities and evolutionary histories. All spiders are united by their order, Araneae, classified by their ability to produce silk. And all Araneae fall into the larger class Arachnida, eight-legged creatures, which in turn belong to the phylum that contains all arthropods, or invertebrates with exoskeletons and segmented bodies. Within this web of Latin, the 53-year-old Dr. Platnick navigates without getting stuck, weaving new threads to connect the species he encounters with the species he knows. His logic is simple: find characteristics of spiders' shapes that independently select the same exact group of organisms. 'There are about 1.75 million species on this planet,' Dr. Platnick explained. 'Select from these all the organisms with abdominal spinnerets to produce silk - about 38,000 species. Repeat this process and select all organisms with modified male pedipalps for copulation. You end up with the same 38,000.' This congruence of characteristics unites spiders uniquely from all others, he said. Apply the concept with higher degrees of specificity, and species' characteristics emerge. 'You start with the null hypothesis that they are all the same. It doesn't take long to see that they are not,' he said. 'Then you divide them into groups of specimens more closely related to each other.' As he explained the process, Dr. Platnick dug out a paper describing a new species he had identified in Australia. 'The differences here are in the male sex organs, or their pedipalps,' he explained. Carefully drawn in profile, one pedipalp had subtly different arrangements of sub-millimeter-sized bulbous growths. These minuscule differences have put Dr. Platnick and his museum at the center of research on spiders, termed arachnology. With the museum already housing tens of thousands of arachnids in by far the largest collection of spiders in the world, Dr. Platnick seeks to add to the number by cataloging the world's biodiversity of spiders, one at a time. In total, he has discovered more than 1,200 new spider species, several dozen new genuses and a couple of new families. 'His contributions to spiders are unmatched,' said Quentin Wheeler, the keeper and head of entomology at the Natural History Museum in London. 'He is the best arachnologist of his generation, has published more monographs and nomenclatural contributions than anyone, period.' Dr. Platnick has written or collaborated on more than 250 scientific papers. Moreover, his classification efforts have revolutionized the field of taxonomic study. Dr. Platnick is known as one of the greatest thinkers in the field of modern cladistics - a method of sorting organisms based on the evolutionary features they share, all derived from their closest common ancestor. His dedication to cladistics in the 1970's helped invalidate the commonly held views that evolutionary patterns could not be known and that classification could be based only on similarities between organisms. For example, if one were to go solely by similarity, one might think the manatee's closest relative was another marine mammal. In fact, cladistics shows that features like its toenails and the way it gathers food with its snout make it more closely related to the elephant. Cladistics now determines how organisms are classified. 'This was the most important event in the discipline since Darwin, and I would rank Norman as one of the three or four most important scientists who expanded, refined and explained these ideas to the world,' said Dr. Wheeler, who worked with Dr. Platnick in the early 1990's on systematic biology, or the biology behind classification. Born in 1951 in Bluefield, W.Va., Dr. Platnick started out in rural schools but at age 12, eager to take more classes in biology, enrolled in Concord College in Athens, W.Va. It was there, as a 14-year-old sophomore, that he met Nancy Stewart Price. 'Yeah, she was a normal college student,' he said. 'It took me two years to get her to take me seriously.' As partners in a class on the biology of arthropods, they went to the Appalachian Mountains to collect millipedes. But all he collected was spiders. 'I took one spider and tried to determine what it was,' he said. 'It took the better part of the day, but I finally figured it out.' Dr. Platnick squinted his eyes as he dredged up the memory. 'It was in the genus Cicurina. Common name?' He laughed. 'Common names are not what we study.' Still, the partnership proved rewarding. He and Ms. Price were married in 1970. At 16, the young biologist headed to Michigan State to pursue a graduate degree in genetics, but switched to arachnids. After earning his master's degree, he went to Harvard to earn his Ph.D., then, in 1973, to the American Museum of Natural History, where he currently serves as a curator. In his early years in New York, he read the work of Willi Hennig, the German scientist who developed cladistical theory in the 1950's. Dr. Platnick became hooked, and began categorizing the museum's collection following a cladistical model. While busy making his mark in the study of spiders, he also advocated that scientists use cladistics to classify all organisms. He debated fiercely with biologists and taxonomists in academic journals and at conferences. 'Throughout the 70's and early 80's, Norman fought a scientific revolution, and won,' said Jonathan Coddington, the head curator of arachnology at the Smithsonian Institution. But Dr. Platnick's primary interest is still the evolution of his eight-legged subjects. 'I really want to assemble the spider part of the tree of life,' he said. 'To figure out how these families - there are 110 identified so far - are related to each other.' He has traveled to places as far-flung as New Caledonia, Australia, Chile and Argentina to study museum collections, and to sift through dirt and sand to herd specimens into vials for later study. It is no easy task. 'You dig, you search, you become very adept at herding a spider into your vial,' he explained. 'They are not long-distance runners, but can be blindingly fast at short distances, and to capture them, you have to figure out which direction they will run. It can get pretty comical when you've got to chase them.' Some specimens are immediately drowned in alcohol. Others are scalded in boiling water to bloat their cells. This forces each individual hair on the spider to protrude, making the specimen ideal for imaging with the high magnification of a scanning electron microscope. In the lab, Dr. Platnick spends hours hunched over his light microscope, turning his specimens around with tweezers, cutting spiders open with a scalpel and taking extensive notes on the minute details of their spinnerets and pedipalps. He then sends the spiders and his notes to his assistant, Dr. Mohammed Shadab, who sketches them and then draws them to scale for publication. Dr. Platnick is aware that to most people, spiders inspire annoyance at best, fear and revulsion at worst. To him, they inspire wonder. 'I come to work in the morning and look at an animal no one has seen before, and it starts a cascade of new projects,' he said, gesturing to his vials stuffed with spider carcasses. 'I need to have multiple lifetimes to conduct all these projects. It's what gets me up in the morning.'

Subject: Wal-Mart's Health Care Struggle From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 09:43:54 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/29/business/businessspecial2/29health.html?ex=1288238400&en=143037b90a8d6229&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 29, 2005 Wal-Mart's Health Care Struggle Is Corporate America's, Too By REED ABELSON Back in the spring, amid relentless criticism that Wal-Mart Stores was failing to provide affordable health care to employees, executives at the company decided to take a detailed look at its benefits. Wal-Mart knew its health costs were spiraling upward out of control, said M. Susan Chambers, the senior executive who led the initiative, but it was surprised to discover that its critics had a point. Almost half of the children of employees were covered only by government social-service programs like Medicaid or had no insurance at all. An internal memo to the Wal-Mart board by Ms. Chambers and her colleagues, which became public this week, candidly assessed this finding and proposed steps the company might take to address it - or at least blunt some of the criticisms it had been encountering. While Ms. Chambers was quick to emphasize in an interview that Wal-Mart was not the only company with employees who use Medicaid, she said she was startled to find out just how reliant working people have become on government health programs. 'It certainly did bring out for me the magnitude of the national problem,' she said. As the nation's largest employer, Wal-Mart cannot help but be entangled in the increasingly contentious debate over how best to provide health care to working Americans. Many of the company's 1.3 million employees are drawn from the most vulnerable part of the national labor pool: people who can find only low-paying jobs, who frequently cannot afford health coverage and who have no ability to absorb the kind of bank-breaking inflation in medical costs the country has experienced since the late 1990's. For various social and economic reasons - including limited access to preventive medical care - low-income workers and their families often have the greatest health care needs, with the least ability to meet them. The Wal-Mart quandary involves a fundamental national issue: Who, if anyone, should provide care to the bulk of Americans. 'Whose responsibility is this?' said Carolyn Watts, a health professor at the University of Washington. 'Is it the government's responsibility or the employer's?' As health care costs continue to soar well above the general rate of inflation, Professor Watts says the United States can no longer rely on employers to provide widespread coverage and needs to grapple with that new reality. 'It's a very different social contract than we have had,' she said. The controversy over Wal-Mart's benefits may mask what some experts see as an unraveling of the employer-based system of health coverage. 'These are indications of the gaps in the health care system that are exposed by Wal-Mart,' said Len Nichols, a health economist at the New America Foundation, an independent public policy group in Washington. 'You can't blame Wal-Mart.' The Chambers memo offers an unusually frank and, at times, disturbing glimpse into Wal-Mart's struggle to achieve what are seemingly contradictory goals: to contain health care costs and to appease its critics. Even as Wal-Mart's health care bill, now $1.5 billion, has climbed 19 percent a year since 2002, it is insuring fewer than half of its employees. While the memo outlines a series of fairly simple steps to expand coverage - at an additional cost of some $300 million a year by 2011 - it also recommends a wide-ranging set of initiatives to control costs, including one controversial proposal aimed at recruiting what the memo describes as 'a healthier, more productive work force.' Perhaps the most unflattering element is the statistic that nearly half of the children of Wal-Mart employees are uninsured or on Medicaid, the federal and state insurance program for the poor. For the nation's overall labor force, that portion is one-third, according to Wal-Mart. But Wal-Mart is not alone in teetering on a tightrope between protecting profits and doing right by employees, a balancing act that is occurring throughout corporate America. Those facing similar situations include General Motors, which has long been seen as the gold standard for health benefits but is now scaling back. Another is Starbucks, which cited the cost of its widely admired health benefits last year when it raised prices. And while Wal-Mart's discounter rival, Costco Wholesale, has taken a strikingly more generous approach to health care, it has come at the cost of rebukes from Wall Street. 'The underlying problem is the problem of affordability of health care in the United States,' said Helen Darling, the president of the National Business Group on Health, a coalition of companies. Wal-Mart's critics, who include some state officials, say companies like it are shirking their duty and asking the taxpayers to pay the cost of their workers' care. In Maryland this year, legislators passed a bill aimed at large employers like Wal-Mart that would force them to insure more of their employees. After intense lobbying by Wal-Mart and other opponents, Maryland's governor vetoed the bill. A similar proposal was narrowly defeated by California voters last year. What the Wal-Mart memo does make clear is that the company's health care costs are increasing at a faster rate than its revenues, and they threaten to engulf an increasing share of future profits. Many companies are reducing their own exposure by shifting an increasing share of the costs onto employees, asking them to pay more in premiums or to foot more of the bill at every doctor visit. But Wal-Mart - and many other companies with similar work forces - does not have that luxury. Nearly 40 percent of its employees already spend an average of 16 percent or more of their pay on health care - a level about four times the national average. The Wal-Mart work force reflects a growing fear of many employers that the people who work for them are increasingly at risk for health problems. Many of Wal-Mart's employees are obese, the company says, and a result is rapidly rising numbers of cases of diabetes or heart disease. The prevalence of these diseases among Wal-Mart employees is increasing much faster than the national average, it says. 'The low-income population generally is not as healthy and does not engage as much in preventive care,' said Diane Rowland, executive director of the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured. A risk that a company like Wal-Mart faces, especially when it competes with smaller retailers that offer no insurance at all, Ms. Rowland said, is attracting too many workers who want the job primarily for the health coverage. Among the starkest - critics would say Darwinian - solutions the Wal-Mart memo explores is the idea of not hiring as many people who have health problems or risks. The memo suggests that the company could require all jobs to include some component of physical activity, like making cashiers gather shopping carts. It also recommends redesigning and expanding benefits to appeal to a different type of worker, someone more interested in buying a home, say, than in getting health insurance. 'These moves would also dissuade unhealthy people from coming to work at Wal-Mart,' the memo said. The company also says a push toward more part-time workers - many of whom would either not be eligible for, or could not afford, whatever new health plan Wal-Mart might devise - will also lead to fewer people's needing coverage. Lawyers and consultants said the company could run afoul of laws that prevent companies from discriminating against older workers or those with health issues. A federal jury this year found that Wal-Mart was guilty of discriminating against an employee with cerebral palsy by reassigning him to a job where he had to collect garbage and shopping carts. The jury awarded him $7.5 million, although the amount was reduced to about $2.8 million, said the employee's lawyer, Douglas H. Wigdor. The company is currently operating under a consent decree by federal regulators because of similar behavior toward other employees, Mr. Wigdor said. Ms. Chambers said the memo did not reflect any intention of discouraging people with medical problems from joining Wal-Mart but, rather, a concern about the lifestyle choices and health of its employees. She said the steps were meant to encourage people to be more active. 'Does that mean we are not going to hire unhealthy people?' she said. 'No.' The other initiatives represent a smattering of programs already embraced by other companies, like disease-management programs in which people with a specific illness are helped to take better care of themselves. Another step would be urging employees to go to doctors that provide good care at a reasonable cost. Policy analysts say such measures offer no quick cure for the country's ills or anything that has a hint of real reform. One recommendation even harks back to the days of company doctors by suggesting that Wal-Mart consider expanding the customer health clinics available at a few of its stores to provide care for employees. The company has already opened four of these customer clinics, which it said appeared to be a popular alternative for people who are uninsured and must pay out of pocket. Prices are clearly marked, and the company says the clinics are an affordable way for people to check out minor ailments like a sore throat or to have their blood sugar checked. Most striking, perhaps, is that the many initiatives outlined by the memo would seem to accomplish so little financially - bringing down projected health costs from 2.3 percent of sales to something closer to 2 percent. Embracing even the most far-reaching suggestions, like recruiting healthier workers, might drive overall benefit costs to a level only a shade under 2 percent. 'As clever and strategic as it is,' said Mr. Nichols, the economist, Wal-Mart's strategy 'is not a solution to our long-term problem.' But Ms. Chambers said Wal-Mart realized that the current initiatives being discussed by corporate America only scratched the surface and that the company wanted to be part of any national dialogue about health care. 'I feel,' she said, 'like we're dealing with symptoms - not causes.'

Subject: Inside Wal-Mart, a Larger Debate From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 08:51:46 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/28/opinion/28fri2.html?ex=1288152000&en=f78ca31978591d4a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 28, 2005 Inside Wal-Mart, a Larger Debate After a peek behind the curtain at Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, one thing is certain: the company is listening to its critics. Predictably, management's responses are about window dressing as much as substantive change, but there is still a lot we can learn from them. The week began with a series of unusual announcements from Wal-Mart: it called on Congress to raise the minimum wage and announced that it would expand health care access for hourly workers and improve its environmental record. But the wary applause has died down. An article in The Times on Wednesday described an internal memo sent to the company's board about plans to hold down the cost of benefits. The 26-page memo (PDF) is required reading for all legislators, business people and advocates for change in the country's health and retirement systems. Prepared by the company's executive vice president for benefits with the help of McKinsey & Company for the Wal-Mart board, this memo injects much-needed honesty into the national debate over health care and retirement. At times it can make for difficult reading. It confirms that 46 percent of the children of Wal-Mart's employees are uninsured or on Medicaid. In their drive for a healthier and therefore cheaper work force, the drafters recommend adding physical activity, like rounding up shopping carts, for all employees, simply to discourage the weak and the sick from seeking jobs there. But it can also be surprisingly forward-thinking. The internal analysis raises the prospect of increasing discounts on healthy foods to cut down on obesity among workers and putting health clinics into stores. The changes in the Wal-Mart health plan announced on Monday would allow an employee to see a doctor three times a year for a $20 co-payment per visit and to receive three generic prescription drugs for $10 each before hitting the high deductibles that many employees cannot afford. While that may be cold comfort for those with chronic or serious illnesses, it could help encourage checkups and preventive care. We cannot blindly throw out the good along with the bad as we sift through the retailer's dirty laundry. As a publicly traded company, Wal-Mart has no incentive to spend additional money on employee benefits. Investors have hammered its share price over the last year because of rising costs. Wal-Mart's approach is a symptom of economic forces: cold, logical conclusions based on the set of rules society has given the company to play by. Wal-Mart is a mirror image of the health care triage affecting all Americans. It isn't pretty, but we have to look.

Subject: Van Gogh's Pen From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 06:23:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/29/opinion/29sat3.html?ex=1288238400&en=a26dcafa8a640aae&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 29, 2005 Van Gogh's Pen It's almost impossible to think of Vincent van Gogh without thinking of the velocity of his career: just a short decade filled with hundreds of paintings and drawings before his suicide in 1890. The compression is so great, the pressure of his concentration so intense, that his works almost refuse to be considered apart from one another and their role in defining the dense, swirling arc of his imagination. The remarkable exhibition of van Gogh's drawings at the Metropolitan Museum naturally insists - simply by the logic of chronology - on his swift, brutal development from a beginning artist of conventional means and nearly conventional talents into van Gogh. Looking at these drawings in order is like watching the formal written alphabet turn, in a few short years, into a series of runic marks with vastly greater power to say just what the artist sees. But these drawings also ask us to think about van Gogh's tools, especially the pen he learned to use when he went to Provence in February 1888. It's hard to imagine a plainer instrument: a reed plucked from the southern marshes and given a penlike tip with a sharp knife. It carried only a trace of ink and was as blunt or as fine as the artist chose to make it. There is no guessing how many reed pens van Gogh made while he was in Provence. But their impact is visible from the moment he reaches Arles. The reed begins to subvert his landscapes. A relatively traditional view of Arles in the distance is utterly upstaged by a cluster of irises in the foreground, drawn as if the pen was suggesting just how frank and simple its vocabulary could be. We have the privilege of watching van Gogh discover the geometry of a line, the elliptical power of a sky full of dots, the rhythm of the ink itself. Many of these drawings echo - or record - the subject of van Gogh's paintings. But they also ask the kind of question that can be answered only in our own imaginations. What was it like for van Gogh to put down the reed pen, a cheap tool using cheap ink, and pick up the brush, committing himself, in expensive oils, to canvas? The question presents itself again and again. Seeing these late drawings, you can imagine a convergence taking place in van Gogh's mind - that it was now, at last, that his eye and hand mattered, not the pen or the brush, the ink or the oil. You would recognize these strokes anywhere.

Subject: Master Who Dreamed on Paper From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 05:55:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/14/arts/design/14kimm.html?ex=1286942400&en=6ea224921e3345d1&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 14, 2005 The Evolution of a Master Who Dreamed on Paper By MICHAEL KIMMELMAN SHORTLY after he landed in Provence in February 1888, Vincent van Gogh wrote to his brother, Theo, about a beautiful sight. He had spotted 'a ruined abbey on a hill covered with holly, pines and gray olives.' It was the old abbey on Montmajour, a crumbling fortress and tower atop a rugged outcropping with an immense vista of vineyards and wheat fields. By July, van Gogh climbed the hill. The mistral, the strong seasonal wind, had kicked up, making it impossible for him to plant an easel and paint without his canvas shaking uncontrollably, not to mention the mosquitoes that the wind swept in. But van Gogh boasted to Theo that while 'not everyone would have the patience,' he could draw. Made with a scratchy reed pen on large sheets of Whatman paper, his Montmajour drawings come about two-thirds of the way through the survey of van Gogh's drawings now at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. They translate sky, rocks and plains into a swarm of swirls, dots, jabs and scratches. Foaming, cable-knit patterns imply the heaving gusts of wind rustling olive branches and bending gnarled olive trunks; whispery, microscopic speckles, endless numbers of them, mimic the quality of dull light on receding fields as they evaporate into the horizon. You can even sense color - the dark brown of the earth, the yellow and lilac fields and gray-blue sky - in van Gogh's black and white. To say these pictures required a kind of monkish devotion to draw is in part to reiterate his inherited Dutch Reform ideas about nature and the revelation of God. Nature was virtually supernatural to him. There is no better proof that he wasn't the mad hatter of movie legend than these painstaking tributes to sublime countryside - as Robert Hughes once put it about van Gogh's paintings, 'if sanity is to be defined in terms of exact judgment of ends and means and the power of visual analysis.' You can still picture van Gogh, bookish and fastidious, pouring out his thousands of letters and drawings, private diaries in words and images, sent to his brother and to a few trusted friends, providing him with a stability that he evidently could find nowhere else in life. The Protestant preacher's son, he dutifully recorded his constant labors with pen and paper. Does it seem that there's always another van Gogh show in town? The last full-fledged van Gogh exhibition at the Met actually happened nearly two decades ago. 'Van Gogh in Saint-Rémy and Auvers' (1986) came on the heels of 'Van Gogh in Arles' (1984) - almost absurdly popular events, culturally apotheosizing the whole Reagan-era enthrallment with conspicuous consumption. Those twin blockbusters roughly dovetailed with the indelible spectacle of enraptured Japanese investors, on the eve of the last art market meltdown, lobbing billions of yen at any old Impressionist picture, above all on everything associated with the holy one-earlobed Dutchman. Poor Vincent. First it was Kirk Douglas. Then it was the din of the throngs and the ka-ching of the cash registers, totaling up asylum postcards and Sotheby's profits, the reverberations still audible a generation later, like radio waves traveling through space, so that it can seem like the van Gogh shows never end. Our hackneyed star-crossed patron saint of unrecognized genius, he remains art's favorite martyr, expiating our cultural sins, calling forth the blind and the faithful to the temple on Fifth Avenue. And now he's back for this survey (it's already open to museum members, and opens Tuesday to everyone else), which includes a few related paintings that illustrate how he moved between one medium and the other. Organized by Colta Ives and Susan Alyson Stein of the Met, and Sjraar van Heugten and Marije Vellekoop of the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam, the exhibition is thorough and dense. If, 20 years ago, it was difficult to glimpse his canvases through the mobs, it will probably be harder still to appreciate these works, with their obsessive particulars and increasingly nuanced feelings. But I suggest you think again before deciding you've got a case of van Gogh fatigue and skipping the occasion. This is not just because the focus here is on drawings, which are on the whole less iconic than the paintings, but were so important to him and to the early spread of his reputation. As they say, in the flesh great art, no matter how often it has been dully reproduced or mistaken for a price tag or overrun by crowds, somehow retains its dignity and originality. It slows your system and demands that you stop and look afresh. And here, before the work, you can find yourself swept back to wintertime in a melancholy grove of pollard birches at Nuenen; to dawn on the beach beside the slender, spiky sailboats at Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer; to the shady vestibule of the asylum at Arles, where the double doors open onto the sunny garden, as if onto Eden; and to the cobblestone Place du Forum at night, in the gaslight glare of the Café Terrace. Haunted sights, and familiar people: the beloved Zouave, with 'a small face, a bull neck, and the eye of a tiger,' as van Gogh told Theo, whose brocaded jacket and its encroaching pattern of curlicue vines makes him into a kind of mustachioed Daphne. And of course, Vincent himself, glowering at us out of the corner of his eye, with a third eye drawn above him, hovering like a Masonic symbol, as if his own gaze were not disturbing enough. Frankly, the whole show, even including the bad drawings, is unforgettable. It tracks the arc of his transformation, in a decade, from a tedious, disingratiating illustrator of glum peasant scenes into a fluent draftsman. There was, as you see early in the Met show, no reason to believe that he would be good. Initially, his tight attempts at figures, like the elderly man seated before a fireplace, or the old woman sewing, border on the hilariously hamfisted. He had foundered for a decade as an art dealer, teacher, bookseller and freelance evangelist among Belgian coal miners. When he took up art as a career in 1880, at the age of 27, he was desperate to make up for lost time. But the process turned into a long, hard slog. He devoured instruction manuals, adopted a wood perspective frame, which he lugged around, to aid him when he drew landscapes. And he emulated English illustrators, Rembrandt, and French painters like Millet and Breton, oblivious, until the mid-1880's, of Impressionism. This paid off, not in the obvious way. The first gallery at the Met culls the best of his early drawings, such as they are, and van Gogh, divorced from the cutting edge, left to his own devices, gradually makes peace with his own awkwardness. Landscapes achieve a strange, gloomy grandeur. A drawing of a peasant woman gleaning, from 1885, just before van Gogh went to Paris, is clumsy, a near abstraction that suggests a half-shucked ear of corn. But the effect now looks deliberate. It's not surprising to learn from the show that Degas acquired this drawing, which clearly reverberates with his own late nude bathers and their exaggerated anatomies. 'Tell him that I should be in despair if my figures were 'correct,' in academic terms,' van Gogh wrote after a fellow artist complained about the distortions. 'I don't want them to be 'correct.' Real artists paint things not as they are, in a dry analytical way, but as they feel them. I adore Michelangelo's figures, though the legs are too long and the hips and backsides too large. What I most want to do is to make of these incorrectnesses, deviations, remodelings, or adjustments of reality something that may be 'untrue' but is at the same time more true than literal truth.' The remark could be the manifesto for modernism. Once in Paris, swept up by the new radical painting, by Japonism and by fresh subjects, van Gogh quit drawing briefly. But in Arles, he returned to it with a mission. He ditched the perspective frame. The Arlesian landscape, with its patchwork of fields, echoing Holland and the flat, interlocking planes of Japanese prints, liberated him. Reeds, plucked from the Midi fields and sharpened into pens that could hold only a little ink at a time, encouraged him to devise an all-over, rapid sort of notation, a Morse code, which he endlessly varied. After painting boats at sea, for example, he dashed off, as advertisements for himself, drawings of the same painting. For Émile Bernard, he drew the scene with roiling waves; for John Russell, with calmer waters; for Theo, in a mood subtler still. Each was completely different. As he kept reinventing drawing, he also found himself. And by the time he reached the asylum at Saint-Rémy, he was recording everything in drawings that breathe light and air. Unloosed, they attain a newfound, almost musical grace. Nesting curls represent the flickering flames of cypresses and their rich color: 'a splash of black in a sunny landscape,' as he wrote, 'one of the most interesting black notes, and the most difficult to hit off exactly.' The show ends with farmhouses and fields in the northern town of Auvers: billowing clouds of coiled, toppling lines, like tumbling putti, made with watercolors and oils, imitating the staccato patter of reed pens. In an old vineyard, under a baby blue sky, chickens scratch in the cool shade of a pergola. Van Gogh sketched this not long before he shot himself, when, he told Theo, 'I still love art and life very much.' It is the accomplishment of somebody who finally discovered how to make the hardest thing he had ever tried to do look easy. Talk about a beautiful sight.

Subject: Expressive With a Brush, or a Pen From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 05:53:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/11/arts/design/11gogh.html?ex=1286683200&en=2d5fbca03a95853f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 11, 2005 Van Gogh: Expressive With a Brush, or a Pen By CAROL VOGEL Vincent van Gogh considered drawing to be 'the root of everything.' He once confided to his brother, Theo, that he could not stop drawing because 'I really have a draftsman's fist, and I ask you, have I ever doubted or hesitated or wavered since the day I began to draw? I think you know quite well that I pushed on, and of course I gradually grew stronger in the battle.' Although his career lasted only a decade, van Gogh created about 1,100 known drawings, capturing everything around him, from peasants and postmen to landscapes and interiors. Drawing was as important a way to record his thoughts as the letters he wrote to his family and friends. Yet the public is far more familiar with his 800 paintings. Images like 'A Corridor in the Asylum' at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, 'The Starry Night' at the Museum of Modern Art and 'Irises' at the J. Paul Getty Museum in Los Angeles are among the most famous images in the history of art. That situation may change next week, when the Met unveils 'Vincent van Gogh: The Drawings,' the first major exhibition of the artist's drawings ever held in the United States. (A version of the show was on view at the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam this summer.) The exhibition, which opens next Tuesday, includes 113 works from public and private collections around the world, 20 of which were not shown in Amsterdam. 'Drawings have always been the P.S. part of van Gogh's work,' said Colta Ives, a curator of drawings and prints at the Met. 'Yet he was a letter writer, a guy with a pen in his hand.' Ms. Ives and Susan Alyson Stein, a curator of 19th-century, modern and contemporary art at the Met, teamed up with two of their colleagues from the Van Gogh Museum - Sjraar van Heugten, head of collections there, and Marije Vellekoop, curator of drawings - to put the show together. Their mission was to tell the story of van Gogh's work through his drawings and watercolors. Sitting in the Met's galleries, surrounded by packing crates and work tables, as the exhibition was being installed, Ms. Stein said she had been thinking about a show like this for 20 years. As coordinator first of the Met's blockbuster 1984 show 'Van Gogh in Arles' and 'Van Gogh in Saint-Rémy and Auvers' two years later, she was introduced to the artist's drawings. 'As exciting as the paintings are,' she said, 'the drawings were a revelation.' For three years she and Ms. Ives have immersed themselves in van Gogh's world, traveling extensively throughout the United States and Europe. 'People opened their collections to us,' Ms. Stein said. So did the Van Gogh Museum, which has the largest number of the artist's works on paper in the world. 'We borrowed judiciously,' Ms. Stein said. Deciding what not to show was as difficult as what the curators chose. For every drawing on view, at least 20 were reluctantly rejected. The exhibition also includes eight paintings: three from the Met's own collection, two from the Van Gogh Museum, and three loans, from the Rodin Museum in Paris, the Pushkin State Museum of Fine Arts in Moscow and a private collection. Each was chosen for its relationship to his drawings. Rather than tackle the subject strictly chronologically, as most curators have done, Ms. Stein and Ms. Ives decided to underscore relationship between drawing and painting in van Gogh's work and how he reinvented certain recurring themes in different ways. When they began conceiving the show, Ms. Stein said, one of the first things she did was to put together 86 pages of excerpts about drawing from all three volumes of van Gogh's letters. 'We wanted to hear his discussion,' she said, 'to know what mattered to him as an artist.' Throughout his life van Gogh embraced drawing for many different reasons. At first he felt it necessary to master black-and-white before tackling color. Sometimes it was a question of economics: paper and ink was far cheaper than canvas and paint. He also used drawing as a way of working on subjects that interested him, like wintry trees or tree-lined roads or expansive views of wheat fields. Drawing didn't always come easy. 'He struggled with black and white,' Ms. Ives said. 'But when he got to Arles in 1888, he discovered the reed pen, and it was then he developed a more comfortable relationship with his tool. As reed wears down, it becomes softer, more flexible and responsive to his gestures on paper.' It is generally assumed that most artists make drawings as studies for larger, more complete paintings. But sometimes van Gogh did just the opposite. He would reproduce some of his paintings in pen and ink; he would then send them to his artist friends Émile Bernard and John Russell, and to his brother, Theo, as a way of letting them know what he was up to. None of these drawings were exact copies; each contained spontaneous details. Often even scholars haven't been sure which came first, a painting or a drawing. Three images of a Zouave solider - a watercolor from the Met's collection, a painting from the Van Gogh Museum and a pen-and-ink drawing that belongs to the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum - have been the subject of scholarly debate. 'It's been long accepted that the watercolor came after the painting,' Ms. Stein said. 'But when we looked at it, it seemed there were hesitant passages. The background, for example, is unresolved.' First the curators looked at the Met's watercolor next to the Guggenheim's pen-and-ink drawing, which they knew came after the painting. 'It's harvest time; it's raining,' Ms. Stein said. 'He has a model, he spends five days and writes his brother and his friends that he's finally painting portraits. He doesn't mention the watercolor. Six weeks later he sends the pen-and-ink rendition of the portrait to John Russell. But because the watercolor isn't mentioned in the letters, it's one of the many riddles we addressed.' Marjorie Shelley, a Met paper conservator, subjected the works to technical analysis, including infrared reflectography that revealed the artist's graphite sketch underneath the finished work, showing how he was struggling with his subject, something he did not do with either the painting or the later pen-and-ink drawing. Ms. Ives was curious about 'Street in Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer,' an 1888 series of drawings and one painting of a dirt path with a row of thatched cottages on one side and tangled vegetation. From his letters it is known that a pen-and-ink drawing was made before a painting of the same subject. He did the drawing in Saintes-Maries, in the Camargue region of Provence, then returned to nearby Arles and made the painting. 'Noticing the similarity in size between the drawing and the painting, I wondered if there might be a still closer link between them,' Ms. Ives said. 'Perhaps it wasn't a free-handed interpretation in oil.' Or, she said, he may have been so happy with his drawing that he traced it onto the canvas, which is unusual, because he generally painted freehand. So Ms. Ives made copies of both the painting and the drawing to scale, then superimposed the drawing on the painting. She deduced that van Gogh had indeed traced the drawing's outline onto the canvas as the structure of the composition, then added more sky at the top and more pathway at the bottom to fill the squarer canvas. But drawings and paintings were never exactly the same. In a drawing he made for Bernard, he added a tiny boat in the horizon. 'There is no boat in the painting,' Ms. Ives said. The way van Gogh grabbed onto a theme, composed it in his mind and then tried it out in different variations fascinated the curators. 'Very few artists do that,' Ms. Ives said. 'Often we tried to get into van Gogh's shoes and walk with him to see what was catching his eye.' A series of watercolors van Gogh created of the plains of La Crau, three miles northwest of Arles, is one example. The curators persuaded the Van Gogh museum to lend them 'Harvest in Provence' (1888), a rarely lent painting, because they were able to borrow a watercolor that preceded it and a pen-and-ink drawing from the National Gallery of Art in Washington that the artist did after it. 'Each has a distinctive character,' Ms. Ives said. 'During the harvest he was out there every day, tromping through the fields, and certain motifs like fences, haystacks, clumps of reeds and rushes he keeps repeating in all different media and scales.' As an art form, however, works on paper are extremely delicate and cannot be subject to light or to changes in temperature. As a result, many of the drawings and watercolors in the show have rarely been exhibited, and it may be some time before the public will see them again. 'The problem with drawings is they have to have a rest,' Ms. Ives said. 'The next generation won't be able to play in this garden for quite a long while.'

Subject: Burden Growing on Pension Group From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 20:16:16 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2004-12-16.html December 16, 2004 Burden Growing on Pension Group By HAL R. VARIAN LAST week, I.B.M. announced that it was closing its traditional defined-benefit pension plan to new employees and instead would offer new workers a 401(k) plan. This is just the most recent of many such announcements by major companies. In the mid-1980's, 40 percent of workers were covered by defined-benefit plans. But those plans have become less popular in recent years, and now only 20 percent of workers are covered by such plans. As the name implies, a defined-benefit plan bases its pension payment on a formula involving years of service, final salary and other considerations. The employer effectively promises workers that it will pay them some predetermined amount when they retire. But pension plans and companies sometimes become insolvent. Who back ups these promises? The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation was set up by the federal government 30 years ago to provide insurance for traditional pension plans. If an employer cannot pay the promised benefits, the pension agency steps in to cover the difference. In exchange for this insurance, the companies that offer traditional pension plans have to pay a fee to the agency. Zvi Bodie, a professor of economics and finance at Boston University, discusses some of the problems the agency faces in an article entitled 'Straight Talk about Government Pension Insurance,' which will appear in the next issue of The Milken Institute Review. The agency's biggest problem is that it faces significant potential liabilities. In 2000, it showed a net balance of assets over liabilities of $10 billion. By 2004, its financial position had deteriorated to a $23.5 billion deficit. If we add in other companies covered by the agency that face significant bankruptcy risk, the deficit could reach $96 billion. The problem, according to Mr. Bodie, is a mismatch between the assets and liabilities of the pension plans that the agency guarantees. In a defined-benefit plan, companies promise to pay a fixed amount of money to workers when they retire. A company could be sure of having enough money available by investing in secure assets like high-grade corporate bonds. But bonds pay relatively low rates of interest, meaning that companies would have to set aside a substantial amount of money to meet their pension obligations. They find it much more attractive to invest in assets like stocks that have a higher expected rate of return. But high expected returns go hand-in-hand with high risk, increasing the chance of a shortfall. In 2003, General Motors' net pension expense was $2.6 billion. Their financial statements assumed a 9 percent rate of return on investments, which were primarily in stocks and other risky assets. If these funds were invested in bonds yielding about 6.75 percent, G.M. would have had to put away $4.2 billion that year, making its pension plan much more expensive. So what is wrong with assuming a 9 percent rate of return? That is a reasonable figure for the average return on the stock market - but it is only an average. Given the historical fluctuations in the stock market, there is a reasonable chance that a stock market investment may not actually pay off enough to cover the liabilities. That is where the pension guaranty agency comes in. Even if the stock market drops, the workers' pensions will be covered. This means that G.M. has every incentive to invest in stocks rather than bonds: it is heads they win, tails the pension agency loses. As Mr. Bodie explains, there is a fundamental fallacy in pension accounting, which assumes that the ups and downs of the stock market will cancel out over time. This is not necessarily true. Consider a 40-year-old worker who hopes to receive a lump-sum payment of $1,000 when she retires in 20 years. If the interest rate on 20-year bonds is 5 percent, then the company will have to set aside about $377 now, which is the present value of the $1,000 obligation at a 5 percent interest rate. But instead of those dull bonds, the company could invest the $377 in a stock market index fund, which yields about 10 percent a year on average. After 20 years, the odds are that the company will have more than enough money to pay the $1,000, leaving itself a tidy profit, or so it seems. The trouble with this logic is that even though the market will probably do better than bonds on average, there is still a significant risk of a shortfall, even in the long run. To see this, consider how much the company would have to pay now to guarantee that it could cover its $1,000 obligation. The company would need to buy some sort of portfolio insurance that would pay off if the stock market investment fell below $1,000. To provide such insurance, the company could buy a put option, a contract that gives it the right, but not the obligation, to sell the pension stock portfolio for $1,000 in 20 years. If the value of the stock portfolio ends up above that amount, there is no problem. If it falls below $1,000, the pension plan would exercise the option to make good on its promise. How much would such an option cost today? Using standard techniques for option valuation, the price is about $125. Thus, the total cost to guarantee the $1,000 future payment turns out to be $377 plus $125, or $502. So it is not so inexpensive to invest the pension in stocks after all. Either the employee runs some risk of not being paid the entire amount, or someone - the company or the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation - has to provide the put option. The problem is that the pension agency has a difficult time charging the actuarially fair price for the insurance it offers. Companies that are close to bankruptcy cannot pay, and healthy companies find it more attractive to opt out of the program entirely and offer 401(k) plans instead. So the financial position of the pension agency continues to deteriorate. Sooner or later, Congress will probably have to step in to fix it. The sooner it can put the program on a sound financial footing, the less it will cost the taxpayers in the long run. Hal R. Varian is a professor of business, economics and information management at the University of California, Berkeley.

Subject: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 17:21:55 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Pete as I posted to you below - one of the FIXES according to the rothbard derivatives guy is to change the accounting rules - I just read this: http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/Asp/FullConv.asp?forumId=F100000015&convSeqNumber=44858&mrr=1130523480 The Financial Accounting Standards Board, which sets U.S. accounting rules, says companies should include in income statements their estimated returns instead of actual gains or losses from pension fund investments in order to ``smooth out'' year-to-year swings in the stock market, said Ron Ryan, chief executive of New York-based Ryan ALM, an asset management company. The SEC is ``going to find out that GM and these other companies were following the rules,'' Ryan said. ``The accounting rules for pensions allow people to do things you wouldn't believe. The rules are the problem.'' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aiSe8YMSK0s8&refer=us Rules U.S. accounting rules let a company assume a positive annual return on pension-fund assets such as stocks even if the assets lost value that year. This is so dumb it must have been dreamed up by a naive economist at the Chicago Business School. And guess who will end up picking the tab for those 'defined benefit' plans The PBGC, funded through corporate premiums, has moved from about a $10 billion surplus in the late 1990s to a $23 billion deficit in its single-employer insurance program. The agency had $39 billion in assets and $62 billion in long-term liabilities. At the same time, the PBGC estimates underfunding in the pension system has reached a record $450 billion, with auto, airline and retail industries at most risk. The situation can be resolved three ways, he says: more money from corporate premiums; an eventual taxpayer bailout; or reduced pension benefits. Read and weep, my friend. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/retirement/2005-05-15-pension-cover_x.htm

Subject: Re: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Pete Weis To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 07:58:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The sobering realization - how do companies with pension plans compete with companies who have shed their pension plans?

Subject: Re: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 17:23:46 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There is where labor strength should come in, as in Europe or Canada or Australia or Japan. We do not have such labor strength presently, so the worry is legitimate.

Subject: Re: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 17:51:16 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Still, I think the economy will hold well for the time being for all the concerns. I like stock market valuation a lot more than a few months ago.

Subject: Re: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Emma To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 19:51:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: What I do not understand is why the pension fund short falls should have occurred at all. I do not understand how the problem developed.

Subject: Re: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Sat, Oct 29, 2005 at 07:51:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: US businesses can 'borrow' from their pension plans for other expenses just as the government does with social security. They can add an automatic 9-10% to their earnings regardless of whether the pension plan is losing or gaining. This change to pension plan accounting was introduced in the 80's to 'smooth' out the large effects pension plans had on corporate earnings from year to year. The trouble with pension accounting by Bill Catlin, Minnesota Public Radio November 7, 2004 Accounting rules for corporate pension nest eggs are widely considered to be broken. Critics complain the rules allow a company's management to play games with the bottom line. (MPR Photo/Bill Catlin) The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into the pension accounting at six big companies, including Eagan-based Northwest Airlines. The SEC says it doesn't have any evidence of wrongdoing. Officials are making inquiries to see if companies deliberately tinker with their pension numbers to make their profits or other financial results look better. Eagan, Minn. — Let's say you have a bunch of money in a retirement nest egg. Which of the following is more important to your financial health? A) How much you think your investments will earn, or B) how much they actually earn? Should be obvious, right? If you're an individual, what matters is how much your money actually grows. But for a business with a pension fund to pay retirees, it's different. Management's prediction of the pension fund's growth is what counts when it comes to calculating the company's profits. Here's why: corporate pension funds can be huge--billions and billions of dollars. They can produce enormous gains or losses from year to year. Include those swings in the company's profit reports to investors and you could distort the actual health of the ongoing business. To smooth things out, the accounting rules say companies should calculate their profits based on estimates of long-term pension fund growth, regardless of the actual short-term results. Seems reasonable, but here's what some of the experts have to say: 'It's generally accepted that pension accounting for defined benefit plans is broken.' 'Pension accounting rules are some of the most complex and convoluted and potentially distorted accounting rules.' 'The accounting clearly is counting a lot of chickens well before they're hatched.' What gets much of the heat from critics is that management's pension predictions can have a big impact on profits. Wayne Guay, an accounting professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School says raising the estimated growth of pension assets can, in turn, boost profits. That opens the door to management manipulating the bottom line. 'They can pump up earnings or pump down earnings by changing the expected return on plan assets,' says Guay. One study found pumping up--$18 billion worth. UBS Investment Research analyst David Bianco says that's the amount of profit generated by aggressive pension assumptions at firms in the Standard & Poor's 500 last year. It amounts to about $36 million per firm. Other research suggests companies ratchet up their pension estimates in years when the CEO cashes in stock options. Actuary Jeremy Gold says a small pension fund won't affect the bottom line much, but 'sometimes you have pension plans that are bigger than the net worth of the company,' says Gold. 'In those cases a one percent change in interest, in simple terms ... can represent my bonus coming in instead of my bonus not.' Experts have also raised another concern--that many companies help the bottom line by underestimating how much health costs will rise. The Securities and Exchange Commission says it targeted Northwest and the other five companies because they appeared to have aggressive accounting assumptions; in other words, they might be overly optimistic. The SEC wants to know what the companies had in mind when they picked their numbers. Terry Tranter, a senior lecturer in accounting at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management says Northwest's pension and health cost assumptions do seem aggressive. But that doesn't mean there's something wrong with them. 'It really depends on whether the company can actually achieve those particular rates,' says Tranter. 'There's no such thing as a good number or a bad number there. It's whether or not it's a number that can be achieved consistently.' In a conference call last month, Northwest CEO Doug Steenland defended the company's accounting assumptions. 'We think they're prudent and responsible, and we think they're clearly in line with established and appropriate practices and completely consistent with historic results,' Steenland said. Northwest expects a 9.5 percent long-term rate of return on its pension assets. That's higher than the typical rate found in surveys. But Northwest officials say their actual returns have been better than 11 percent. They declined to comment on health cost assumptions. Actuary Jeremy Gold doubts the SEC will find much to complain about. But he says the inquiry may convince other firms to back away from aggressive assumptions.

Subject: War with Iran From: Johnny5 To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 23:29:37 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: They fugded the numbers right? Changed the accounting rules so that in good years things didn't look so good, and in bad years not so bad - but they have gone so far underwater their 'smoothing' trick not so hot now eh? Lots of companies do this - I remember Terri asking about systemic risk about a year ago - it hard to understand for people to see the forest - forest very big - Richebacher, Kurt said several years ago things already VERY VERY bad - they have just got worse since - maybe coming WAR with IRAN help fix things - if they blow up houses and we employ a lot of slack labor in shooting guns eh?

Subject: Re: Change the accounting Rules for Pete From: Jennifer To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 17:59:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: An important issue, that will not be easily resolved but the fund will be supported by Congress when necessary.

Subject: An Argument Against Recession From: Jennifer To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 13:38:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Since 1980, there have been 3 recessions. The first was deep and reasonably long, while the other 2 were shallow and short. The economic record then for 25 years strikes me as healthy. There is no reason to think that suddenly consumers are going to stop buying large or small ticket items anytime soon for any significant length of time. Consumers have been gathering debt these 25 years and handling it, and though there have been warnings year after year that this could not go on I do not see why not. I am also confident about coming months, and find no reason to think a recession in anywhere near.

Subject: The Problem For Labor From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 15:47:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Wages and benefits are the issues that really worry me. I am pleased that growth remains robust enough for the Federal Reserve to finish the cycle, and I do hope there is soon a finish, but I do not like the labor picture. This is just not a full employment economy in any way that I understand full employment beyond the monthly unemployment number. Darn.

Subject: Alan Greenspan From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 10:11:55 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Alan Greenspan's talent was discerning the general strength or weakness of the economy and developing a consensus at the Federal Reserve for policy. The weaknesses would seem to have been less attention to banking structure and competitiveness than might have been useful, and a lack of respect for the surplus budget than developed late in the 1990s.

Subject: Re: Alan Greenspan From: Terri To: Terri Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 10:15:41 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Notice how strong growth was last quarter. Alan Greespan has been especially good at giving us a sense of economic strengths, and producing monetary policy to foster these strengths.

Subject: Re: Ford & GM From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 10:47:37 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: US automakers and the employee discounts offered which resulted in record auto sales should be given the lion's share of credit for the good 3rd qtr GDP numbers. Unfortunately, this will likely make it tougher to get good 4th qtr GDP numbers (with a big drop in auto sales).

Subject: Re: Ford & GM From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 11:16:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The increases in government spending that are beginning after the bills passed several months ago, along with massive efforts at clean up and construction along the Gulf Coast and in Florida should provide any needed boost. I believe consumer spending will not falter this quarter.

Subject: China Luring Foreign Scholars From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 07:21:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/28/international/asia/28universities.html?ex=1288152000&en=8419c68b39fbbf82&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 28, 2005 China Luring Foreign Scholars to Make Its Universities Great By HOWARD W. FRENCH SHANGHAI - When Andrew Chi-chih Yao, a Princeton professor who is recognized as one of the United States' top computer scientists, was approached by Qinghua University in Beijing last year to lead an advanced computer studies program, he did not hesitate. It did not matter that he would be leaving one of America's top universities for one little known outside China. Or that after his birth in Shanghai, he was raised in Taiwan and spent his entire academic career in the United States. He felt he could contribute to his fast-rising homeland. 'Patriotism does have something to do with it, because I just cannot imagine going anywhere else, even if the conditions were equal,' said Dr. Yao, who is 58. China wants to transform its top universities into the world's best within a decade, and it is spending billions of dollars to woo big-name scholars like Dr. Yao and build first-class research laboratories. The effort is China's latest bid to raise its profile as a great power. China has already pulled off one of the most remarkable expansions of education in modern times, increasing the number of undergraduates and people who hold doctoral degrees fivefold in 10 years. 'First-class universities increasingly reflect a nation's overall power,' Wu Bangguo, China's secondranking leader, said recently in a speech here marking the 100th anniversary of Fudan, the country's first modern university. The model is simple: recruit top foreign-trained Chinese and Chinese-American specialists, set them up in well-equipped labs, surround them with the brightest students and give them tremendous leeway. In a minority of cases, they receive American-style pay; in others, they are lured by the cost of living, generous housing and the laboratories. How many have come is unclear. China is focusing on science and technology, areas that reflect the country's development needs but also reflect the preferences of an authoritarian system that restricts speech. The liberal arts often involve critical thinking about politics, economics and history, and China's government, which strictly limits public debate, has placed relatively little emphasis on achieving international status in those subjects. In fact, Chinese say - most often euphemistically and indirectly - that those very restrictions on academic debate could hamper efforts to create world-class universities. 'Right now, I don't think any university in China has an atmosphere comparable to the older Western universities - Harvard or Oxford - in terms of freedom of expression,' said Lin Jianhua, Beijing University's executive vice president. 'We are trying to give the students a better environment, but in order to do these things we need time. Not 10 years, but maybe one or two generations.' Nonetheless, the new confidence about entering the world's educational elite is heard among politicians and university administrators, students and professors. 'Maybe in 20 years M.I.T. will be studying Qinghua's example,' says Rao Zihe, director of the Institute of Biophysics at Qinghua University, an institution renowned for its sciences and regarded by many as China's finest university. 'How long it will take to catch up can't be predicted, but in some respects we are already better than the Harvards today.' In only a generation, China has sharply increased the proportion of its college-age population in higher education, to roughly 20 percent now from 1.4 percent in 1978. In engineering alone, China is producing 442,000 new undergraduates a year, along with 48,000 graduates with masters' degrees and 8,000 Ph.D's. But only Beijing University and a few other institutions have been internationally recognized as superior. Since 1998, when Jiang Zemin, then China's leader, officially began the effort to transform Chinese universities, state financing for higher education has more than doubled, reaching $10.4 billion in 2003, the last year for which an official figure is available. Xu Tian, a leading geneticist who was trained at Yale and still teaches there, runs a laboratory at Fudan University that performs innovative work on the transposition of genes. On Aug. 12 his breakthrough research was featured on the cover of the prestigious journal Cell, a first for a Chinese scientist. Beijing University drew on the talents of Tian Gang, a leading mathematician from M.I.T., in setting up an international research center for advanced mathematics, among other high-level research centers. Officials at Beijing University estimate that as much as 40 percent of its faculty was trained overseas, most often in the United States. The president of Yale University, Richard C. Levin, interviewed in Shanghai, where he was the featured guest at Fudan's centennial celebration in late September, also had high praise for China's students. 'China has 20 percent of the world's population, and it is safe to say it has more than 20 percent of the world's best students,' he said. 'They have the raw talent.' But Mr. Levin also noted that China's low labor costs simplified the effort to upgrade. He said he had been astounded by the new laboratories at Jiaotong University in Shanghai, which he said could be built in China for $50 a square foot, compared with $500 a square foot at Yale. Some critics say that the country is trying to achieve excellence in too many areas at once and that the plans of the 30 or so universities selected for heavy state investment duplicate efforts, sacrificing excellence. Even Mr. Levin tempered his enthusiasm with a warning that the 'top schools have expanded much too fast and are diluting quality.' In many cases, though, the toughest criticism comes from people who have worked in the system. 'It is important for different universities to have different qualities, just like a symphony,' said Yang Fujia, a nuclear physicist and former president of Fudan. 'But all Chinese universities want to be comprehensive. Everybody wants to be the piano, having a medical school and lots of graduate students.' Mr. Yang, who leads a small experimental university in Ningbo, also criticized the lack of autonomy given to many Chinese researchers. 'At Princeton one mathematician spent nine years without publishing a paper, and then solved a problem that had been around for 360 years,' Mr. Yang said, a reference to Andrew J. Wiles and his solution to Fermat's last theorem in the early 1990's. 'No one minded that, because they appreciate the dedication to hard work there. We don't have that spirit yet in China.' Similarly, Ge Jianxiong, a distinguished historical geographer at Fudan, said Chinese culture often demands speedy results, which could undermine research. 'In China projects are always short-term, say three years,' he said. 'Then they want you to produce a book, a voluminous book. In real research you've got to give people the freedom to produce good results, and not just the results they want.' Mr. Ge added that education suffered here because 'it has always been regarded as a tool of politics.' Dr. Yao said he had expected to concentrate on creating a world-class Ph.D. program but had found surprising weaknesses in undergraduate training and had decided to teach at that level. 'You can't just say I'll only do the cutting-edge stuff,' he said. 'You've got to teach the basics really well first.' But the biggest weakness, many Chinese academics indicated, is the lack of academic freedom. Mr. Yang, the former president of Fudan University, warned that if the right atmosphere was not cultivated, great thinkers from overseas might come to China for a year or two, only to leave frustrated. Gong Ke, a vice president of Qinghua University, said universities had 'the duty to guarantee academic freedom.' 'We have professors who teach here, foreigners, who teach very differently from the Chinese government's point of view,' he added. 'Some of them really criticize the economic policy of China.' Li Ao, a writer in Taiwan, visited Beijing University in September and gave a speech calling for greater academic freedom and independence from the government. The next day, after reportedly coming under heavy official pressure, he delivered a far tamer version elsewhere. . The Chinese government also censors university online bulletin boards and discussion groups, and recently prevented students at Zhongshan University in Guangzhou from conversing freely with visiting elected officials from Hong Kong. Students here are not encouraged to challenge authority or received wisdom. For some, that helps explain why China has never won a Nobel Prize. What is needed most now, some of China's best scholars say, are bold, original thinkers. 'The greatest thing we've done in the last 20 years is lift 200 million people out of poverty,' said Dr. Xu. 'What China has not realized yet, though, if it truly wants to go to the next level, is to understand that numbers are not enough. 'We need a new revolution to get us away from a culture that prizes becoming government officials. We must learn to reward real innovation, independent thought and genuine scholarly work.'

Subject: Re: China Luring Foreign Scholars From: Jennifer To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 15:52:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: This is a stunning article.

Subject: Paul Krugman Is Mellow Today From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 05:59:21 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: October 27, 2005 Paul Krugman Is Mellow Today By Brad DeLong He praises Ben Bernanke. He even praises Alan Greenspan (somewhat): Bernanke and the Bubble By PAUL KRUGMAN: By Bush administration standards, the choice of Ben Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve was just weird. For one thing, Mr. Bernanke is actually an expert in monetary policy, as opposed to, say, Arabian horses.... Bernanke's partisanship... is so low-key that his co-author on a textbook didn't know he was a registered Republican. The academic work on which his professional reputation rests is apolitical. Moreover, that work is all about how the Fed can influence demand - there's not a hint in his work of support for the right-wing supply-side doctrine....(1) [H]e's a policy activist who advocates aggressive government moves to jump-start stalled economies. For example, a few years back Mr. Bernanke called on Japan to show 'Rooseveltian resolve'... supported a proposal by yours truly that the Bank of Japan try to get Japan's economy moving by... announcing its intention to push inflation up to 3 or 4 percent per year.... It's even hard to imagine him doing what Mr. Greenspan did: throwing his prestige... behind... tax cuts.... Has President Bush been so damaged by scandals and public disapproval that he has no choice but to appoint qualified, principled people to important positions? O.K., seriously, many economists and investors feared that Mr. Bush would try to place a highly partisan figure in charge of the Fed. And ... there was widespread concern that Mr. Bush would try to select a John Snow type - a businessman whose only qualification is loyalty.... So should we all feel confident.... Alas, no.... Mr. Greenspan, for all his flaws, has repeatedly shown his ability to divine from fragmentary and sometimes contradictory data which way the economic wind is blowing. As an academic, Mr. Bernanke never had the occasion to make that kind of judgment. We'll just have to see whether he can develop an economic weather sense on the job.... [But] my main concern is that the economy may well face a day of reckoning soon after Mr. Bernanke takes office. And while he is surely the best politically possible man for the job (all the other candidates I would have been happy with are independents or Democrats), coping with that day of reckoning... may be beyond anyone's talents... two unsustainable trends: a huge surge in house prices and a vast inflow of funds from Asia. Sooner or later, both trends will end, possibly abruptly.... When all is said and done, the Fed controls only one thing: the short-term interest rate. And it will be a long time before we have competent, public-spirited people controlling taxes, spending and other instruments of economic policy. Paul Krugman worries about the problems that Bernanke will have to face, and about the fact that he will be virtually the only grownup in the economy's control room for a while. I worry too. Why, I remember last summer nearly getting out the flamethrower when a reporter referred to the Fed Chairship as a 'plum job.' It carries a healthy (although not absurd) salary. But it also carries great responsibility. And it does not carry the power that should come with that much responsibility. From what I hear, it does seem likely that Krugman is right when he speculates that the reaction to Harriet Miers saved us from a Harriet Miers-like Fed appointment. All the whispering over the summer about how the establishment consensus candidates--Hubbard, Feldstein, Bernanke, Kohn, Ferguson--were good but not great sounded and sounds as though it was meant to prepare the ground for somebody else. --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -- (1) I would say that Bernanke has the standard economist's attitude toward supply-side factors: taxes carry excess burdens, the ruling principle is to broaden the base and lower the rates, budgets should not be grossly unbalanced, and public finance ought to be an empirical, technocratic discipline rather than one of religious zealotry. He does, however, occasionally talk about financial crises and the chains of bankruptcy and disintermediation that they generate as 'supply-side' factors. I understand what he means, but I do still find it a little jarring.

Subject: Paul Krugman Is Mellow Today.... From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 06:15:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/ Paul Krugman Is Mellow Today....

Subject: Paul Krugman: New Fed Chairman Bernanke From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 05:56:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/ Paul Krugman: New Fed Chairman Bernanke and the Bubble By Mark Thoma Paul Krugman continues the discussion of the new Fed chair nominee Ben Bernanke (see nomination, inflation fighting, transmission mechanism, transparency, inflation fighting credentials, asset bubbles, televising meetings). First, Krugman is both surprised and grateful that the administration picked someone qualified for the job: Bernanke and the Bubble, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ... Mr. Bernanke is actually an expert in monetary policy, as opposed to, say, Arabian horses. And as noted here, Bernanke is not known to be partisan. Bernanke's colleagues at Princeton, and Krugman is one of them, knew very little about his politics: Beyond that, Mr. Bernanke's partisanship, if it exists, is so low-key that his co-author on a textbook didn't know he was a registered Republican. Should I be happy he has kept his politics to himself? What is it we don't know? Is he a very quiet raging ideologue? The academic [work]... is apolitical. ... there's not a hint in his work of support for the right-wing supply-side doctrine. Nor is he a laissez-faire purist who believes that government governs best when it governs least. On the contrary, he's a policy activist who advocates aggressive government moves to jump-start stalled economies. For example, a few years back Mr. Bernanke called on Japan to show 'Rooseveltian resolve' in fighting its long slump. What about his allegiance to Bush? I'm worried about that. Bush appointed him as a Fed governor, as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, and now the nomination to be Fed chair. Won't he owe Bush his allegiance? ...Mr. Bernanke has no personal ties to the Bush family. It's hard to imagine him doing something indictable to support his masters. It's even hard to imagine him doing what Mr. Greenspan did: throwing his prestige as Fed chairman behind irresponsible tax cuts. Ben Bernanke was chair of the Princeton Economics Department when you were hired, so you know Bernanke pretty well. You've assured us he's qualified, apolitical, and independent. Sounds good. Should I stroll away confident in our economic future, or are there additional concerns? This isn't a comment on Mr. Bernanke's qualifications, although there is one talent ... that Mr. Bernanke has yet to demonstrate ... Mr. Greenspan ... has repeatedly shown his ability to divine from fragmentary and sometimes contradictory data which way the economic wind is blowing. As an academic, Mr. Bernanke never had the occasion to make that kind of judgment. We'll just have to see whether he can develop an economic weather sense on the job. Since I made the same point about Greenspan here, I'd have to agree. Let's hope Bernanke has this talent as well. But even if he does, you still seem concerned. Is it related to concerns about Bernanke's qualifications or abilities as Fed chair? No, my main concern is that the economy may well face a day of reckoning soon after Mr. Bernanke takes office. And ... coping with that day of reckoning without some nasty shocks may be beyond anyone's talents. The fact is that the U.S. economy's growth over the past few years has depended on two unsustainable trends: a huge surge in house prices and a vast inflow of funds from Asia. Sooner or later, both trends will end, possibly abruptly. But hasn't Bernanke said there is no housing bubble, and that the global savings glut explains the international trade imbalance and the dangers there aren't as large as many believe? ...Well, soothing words are expected from a Fed chairman. He must know that he may be wrong. If he is wrong, what should he do? Does he have what it takes to handle such events? If he is, the U.S. economy will find itself in need of the 'Rooseveltian resolve' Mr. Bernanke advocated for Japan. We can safely predict that Mr. Bernanke will show that resolve. ... It's reassuring to hear such praise for Bernanke. It sounds like monetary policy is in good hands. But that may not be enough. When all is said and done, the Fed controls only one thing: the short-term interest rate. And it will be a long time before we have competent, public-spirited people controlling taxes, spending and other instruments of economic policy. That's not quite as reassuring. Brad DeLong and others are concerned about that too.

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman: New Fed Chairman Bernanke From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 09:45:41 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'But hasn't Bernanke said there is no housing bubble, and that the global savings glut explains the international trade imbalance and the dangers there aren't as large as many believe?' '...Well, soothing words are expected from a Fed chairman. He must know that he may be wrong.' Interesting. Unfortunately, at times, a fed chairman must fudge the truth?

Subject: Housing for Pete From: Johnny5 To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 22:31:39 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I have read where many builders could sell houses at half the price they sell for now and still make a profit. Japan banks still have the non performing loans on the books. They did not liquidate right? Here on morningstar a poster posits that many smaller banks have foreclosed real estate that they are not turning loose on the market - restricting supply to keep prices inflated but soon they MUST dump. http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/Asp/FullConv.asp?forumId=F100000015&convId=158268 And finally, for me the clincher. The amount of bank owned property, that is being held back from the market, but carried 'on book'. In some markets, there is a tremendous amount of properties of this kind ( see sites like www.foreclosure.com to for more info ). At some point the banks will no longer be able to hide these properties, and will need to release them onto the market. Then look out below. Japan banks has held non performing for 14 years now? They never liquidated. Why MUST these banks liquidate - who will force them? The government that is encouraging them NOT to liquidate - HUH? Again from the Rothbard fellow: http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/ Ever since paper currency was invented in the West in 1691 the informed have used these bubbles to take buying power from every one else. 314 years is a powerful statement of world events. In the end the people in the know take all the money because they make the rules. The real question you should be asking yourself, do banks really lose buying power of their money when bailouts, hyperinflation, or deflation occurs. If they make all the rules, they always come out on top.

Subject: 'Brain Drain' From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 11:37:30 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/international/25brain.html?ex=1287892800&en=57d6c393199babf4&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 25, 2005 Developing Lands Hit Hardest by 'Brain Drain' By CELIA W. DUGGER Poor countries across Africa, Central America and the Caribbean are losing sometimes staggering portions of their college-educated workers to wealthy democracies, according to a World Bank study released yesterday. The study's findings document a troubling pattern of 'brain drain,' the flight of skilled middle-class workers who could help lift their countries out of poverty, some analysts say. And while the exact effects are still little understood, there is a growing sense among economists that such migration plays a crucial role in a country's development. The findings are based on an extensive survey of census and other data from the 30 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes most of the world's richest nations. The study found that from a quarter to almost half of the college educated citizens of poor countries like Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda and El Salvador lived abroad in an O.E.C.D. country - a fraction that rises to more than 80 percent for Haiti and Jamaica. In contrast, less than 5 percent of the skilled citizens of the powerhouses of the developing world, like India, China, Indonesia and Brazil, live abroad in an O.E.C.D. country. These patterns suggest that an extensive flight of educated people is damaging many small to medium-size poor countries, while the largest developing countries are better able to weather relatively smaller losses of talent, and even benefit from them when their skilled workers return or invest in their native lands, said Frédéric Docquier, a lead researcher for the bank and an economist at the University of Leuven in Belgium. 'For a country with a third of its graduates missing, one has to worry,' said Alan Winters, director of the World Bank's development research group. The World Bank study, published yesterday in a book, 'International Migration, Remittances and the Brain Drain,' also presents an analysis of the effect of the money that migrants from Guatemala, Mexico and the Philippines sent home, typically to their families. Those payments, known as remittances, helped reduce poverty in those countries and were a major source of foreign exchange, but the broader implications were complex. In Guatemala, for example, rural families receiving the money spent more on education and less on consumption. But in Mexico, children in migrant families actually got less education than those of nonmigrants, possibly because their families believed that they would eventually migrate to the United States for unskilled jobs that did not reward higher levels of learning. Some of the bank's data on brain drain have brought debate. Mark Rosenzweig, a Yale University economist, argues that the bank's measurement is inflated because it does not exclude immigrants who moved to a rich country as children, or who got their college educations there. Survey data on immigrants from Jamaica, for example, show that almost 4 of 10 came to the United States before the age of 20, he said. Bank researchers say they are now gathering such information, though it is not available for many countries, and acknowledge that it would be useful to know where migrants were educated. But they and some experts outside the bank say its latest report still offers the most comprehensive sense yet of the magnitude of the brain drain from poor countries, though that knowledge is admittedly rough and incomplete. Most experts agree that the exodus of skilled workers from poor countries is a symptom of deep economic, social and political problems in their homelands and can prove particularly crippling in much needed professions in health care and education. Jagdish Bhagwati, an economist at Columbia University who migrated from India in the late 1960's, said immigrants were often voting with their feet when they departed from countries that were badly run and economically dysfunctional. They get their government's attention by the act of leaving. 'If you stay you don't have any bargaining power at all,' he said. But some scholars are asking whether the brain drain may also fuel a vicious downward cycle of underdevelopment - and cost poor countries the feisty people with the spark and the ability to resist corruption and incompetent governance. Devesh Kapur and John McHale argue in their book, 'Give Us Your Best and Brightest,' published last week by the Center for Global Development, a research group in Washington, that the loss of institution builders - hospital managers, university department heads and political reformers, among others - can help trap countries in poverty. 'It's not just the loss of professionals,' said Mr. Kapur, an associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. 'It's also the loss of a middle class.' The question of what can be done to lessen the damage is vexing and gets into difficult questions of whether to limit the migration of skilled workers. The immigration policies of rich nations, including the United States, Canada, Britain and Australia, have sought to attract highly educated professionals, to bolster their competitiveness and to fill gaps in domestic skills. Many experts say they oppose efforts to curtail the movement of migrants, but they are debating possible ways to help poor countries cope. An idea that Professor Bhagwati first proposed in the 1970's - that developing countries should tax their expatriate workers - is getting a fresh look. Editors of the World Bank's book say policies may be needed to raise the incomes of professionals in their home countries. Others, including Professor Kapur and Professor McHale, who is an economist at the business school of Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, suggest that new ways be found to compensate the hardest-hit countries for their losses. They also say rich countries should consider setting up time-limited visas that would allow professionals to work for a few years before taking their expertise, and savings, back home. Professor Kapur likened a skilled immigrant's getting a visa to work in a rich country to winning a lottery, because the income gains from moving are so great. Whatever the approach, he said, the benefits to the few who are lucky enough to leave need to be weighed against the costs to their countrymen left behind.

Subject: An Exodus of African Nurses From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 11:35:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/12/international/africa/12MALA.html?ex=1247284800&en=8e7f1b64112bee01&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland July 12, 2004 An Exodus of African Nurses Puts Infants and the Ill in Peril By CELIA W. DUGGER LILONGWE, Malawi — Six women suddenly went into the final, agonized minutes of childbirth. Hlalapi Kunkeyani was the only nurse. There were no doctors. Panicky cries rent the fetid air of the ward, a cavernous space jammed with 20 women laboring in beds, on benches, even on the concrete floor. Mrs. Kunkeyani worked with intense concentration, her face glowing with sweat, but she was overwhelmed. Four of the babies arrived in a rush without her to ease their passage into the world. She found one trapped between his mother's legs with the umbilical cord wrapped around his chest. The face of another was smeared with his mother's feces. Yet a third lay still on his mother's breast, desperate to breathe. The nurse swiftly suctioned his tiny mouth until at last he gulped a breath. Mrs. Kunkeyani, 36, is the stalwart nurse in charge of this capital city's main labor ward, where 10 overworked nurse midwives deliver more than 10,000 babies a year. But soon, she will vanish from this impoverished nation, joining thousands of African nurses streaming away from their AIDS-haunted continent for rich countries, primarily Britain. 'My friends are telling me there's work there, there's money there,' said Mrs. Kunkeyani, who will soon make in a day's overtime in Britain what she earns in a month in Malawi. 'They're telling me I'm wasting my time here.' The nursing staffs of public health systems across the poor countries of Africa — grossly insufficient to begin with — are being battered by numerous factors that include attrition and AIDS. But none are creating greater anxiety in Africa than the growing flight of nurses discouraged by low pay and grueling conditions. The result of the nursing crisis — the neglect of the sick — is starkly apparent here on the dilapidated wards of Lilongwe Central Hospital, where a single nurse often looks after 50 or more desperately ill people. What is equally visible is the boon to Britain, where Lilongwe Central's former nurses minister to the elderly in the carpeted lounges of nursing homes and to patients in hushed private hospital rooms. It is the poor subsidizing the rich, since African governments paid to educate many of the health care workers who are leaving. In May, African countries banded together at the annual assembly of the World Health Organization to urge developed nations to compensate them for their lost investment. After an intense debate, the assembled countries resolved to search for ways to lessen the damage of what they called increasing rates of emigration. The brain drain of health professionals from Africa, and, more broadly, the severe staffing shortages, will be an issue at the 15th International AIDS Conference in Bangkok. Physicians for Human Rights, a Boston-based nonprofit group that shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 1997, will be releasing a report on the topic and proposing steps to avert a deepening of the human resources crisis. At Lilongwe Central, an 830-bed hospital, there are supposed to be 532 nurses. Only 183 are left. That is about half as many as there were just six years ago. And only 30 of those are registered nurses, the highly skilled cadre that is most sought abroad. The hospital's director, Dr. Damson Kathyola, a peasant's son educated at University College London, seems to feel an almost physical pain when he describes trying to run a major medical institution that is hemorrhaging nurses. 'Unbearable,' he said, leaning his head back and squeezing his eyes shut. 'Unbearable.' In Malawi, afflicted with one of Africa's most severe nursing shortages, almost two-thirds of the nursing jobs in the public health system are vacant. More registered nurses have left to work abroad in the past four years than the 336 who remain in the public hospitals and clinics that serve most of the country's 11.6 million people, according to Malawi's Nurses and Midwives Council. Many of these English-speaking nurses have flocked to Britain, which is confronting its own acute shortage of nurses to care for an aging population. Its central nursing register shows that the number of nurses being certified from Malawi, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana — all former British colonies — has soared since 1999. African nurses are also migrating, though in smaller numbers, to the United States and New Zealand, with trickles to Australia and Canada. There are now more than 3,100 registered nurses from Africa in the United States, according to a national survey of nurses by the Department of Health and Human Services. As projections show the shortfall of nurses in the United States ballooning to 800,000 by 2020, the pressure to recruit abroad is likely to grow. 'The U.K.'s experience could be a harbinger of what we'll see in the U.S.,' said Julie Sochalski, associate professor of nursing at the University of Pennsylvania. But Africa's nurses are not just moving overseas. They are also quitting government service for better-paying jobs in their own countries at private hospitals and foreign-financed nonprofit groups and research institutions. Thousands more have left the profession or are simply dying, especially in southern Africa, where rates of H.I.V. infection are highest. In Malawi, a quarter of public health workers, including nurses, will be dead, mostly of AIDS and tuberculosis, by 2009, according to a study of worker death rates in 40 hospitals here. Drugs for people with AIDS have been unaffordable up to now. The bottom line: sub-Saharan Africa's low-income countries need to more than double their nursing work forces, adding at least 620,000 nurses to grapple with severe health emergencies, according to estimates developed for the Joint Learning Initiative, a network of more than 100 scholars and analysts studying human resources for health and coordinated from Harvard University. The nursing crisis is intensifying just as billions of dollars in foreign aid is beginning to pour into Africa to provide life-saving drugs to millions of people afflicted with AIDS and tuberculosis. The money includes the first installment on a total of $15 billion promised by President Bush and $2 billion from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The shortage of nurses compromises the ability of countries to use this money effectively, and the money itself is likely to aggravate the nursing shortage in public hospitals. A substantial portion will be channeled to nonprofit groups that are likely to hire away yet more nurses at higher pay. As the world focuses its resources on AIDS, the risk is that more women giving birth and more children needing hospital care for easily treatable conditions like respiratory infections and diarrhea will die, experts say. 'I think it will destroy the whole system,' Dr. Kathyola said. One Nurse and 26 Babies To spend a few weeks roaming the wards of Lilongwe Central is to see the human cost of the nursing shortage. Late one night on the nursery for sick and premature newborns, the sole nurse on duty stepped away — and 26 babies, packed two and three to a bassinet, were on their own. In one crib, a tiny baby girl, blue and dead, lay next to her sister, eyes open, tiny fists clenched, mouth yawning. Earlier, on the day shift, Tereza Kachingwe, a rotund, kindly nurse, had steadfastly stood by the premature babies, trying to keep them alive. But the hospital had run out of the thinnest tubes needed to suction such miniature throats. 'If this tube was smaller, I could go deeper into the trachea,' she said ruefully, as she easily held one of the featherweight newborns in her palm, sweeping the tube back and forth in the infant's mouth. Mrs. Kachingwe looked around at the many other babies who needed her attention, then turned back to the tiniest ones barely clinging to life. 'Today, I'm stranded,' she sighed. On another day in the gynecological ward, Tandu Mbvundula was the only nurse tending 51 patients, dispensing pills and a bare minimum of words. Unsmiling, she pushed a medicine cart into a room so packed with patients that some lay on the concrete floor in the darkened spaces beneath the beds. She rolled up to Mary Kaliyati, a mother of five whose uterus had ruptured giving birth in a mission hospital. Mrs. Kaliyati was transferred to Lilongwe Central. After surgery to remove her uterus, she had developed an infection. The nurse explained that the hospital was out of its most potent antibiotic, so she had given Mrs. Kaliyati a weaker combination. The first round had failed. The woman was still feverish. So the nurse was giving her a second round of the same weaker antibiotics. Will the treatment work? Mrs. Mbvundula shrugged numbly. 'Maybe,' she said, and then moved on. Hospital officials say the rate at which women die of causes related to pregnancy at Lilongwe Central has held steady in recent years, but cases of ruptured uteruses have sharply spiked. Dr. Bernard Reich, one of only two obstetricians working at Lilongwe Central, said such complications should simply not happen to women giving birth in a hospital. In Malawi as a whole, the rate at which women die of causes related to pregnancy almost doubled from 1992 to 2000. One in 89 births results in the death of the mother, among the worst such rates in the world. A 2001 review of hundreds of confidential maternal death audits from 18 hospitals in southern Malawi found that more than half the deaths were associated with substandard hospital care. 'It's the worst change in a health indicator — outside of wars and natural disasters — that I've seen in the 36 years I've been knocking around developing countries,' said William Aldis, who represents the World Health Organization in Malawi. 'It tells me that there's a catastrophic failure of the health system in this country to meet the minimum needs of the population. The sheer lack of skilled people is the major contributing factor.' The Ministry of Health in Malawi is proposing an increase in the number of nurses and health professionals being trained, while more than doubling their pay. Major donors, including Britain and the Global Fund, said they recognized that Malawi faced a staffing emergency and would provide financial support to help it hang on to its health workers. Here at Lilongwe Central, registered nurses, who make about $1,900 a year, said if their pay were doubled or tripled, they would be more likely to stay, but added that they had heard such promises before. In recent interviews with the hospital's 30 remaining registered nurses, 20 said they planned to leave for better paying jobs in Malawi or abroad. Six more said they were thinking about it. Beatrice Mkandawire, 40, a senior nurse on the children's ward and a mother of four, dedicated her entire salary from the month of May — $145 — toward paying the initial $215 fee to register as a nurse in Britain. She and her husband will beg for help from relatives and skimp on food to make ends meet. She hopes to be there by the end of the year. Tall and stately in a pristine white dress, she wondered sorrowfully, 'If I leave, who will look after the patients when I'm gone?' A good deal of damage to the hospital's staff is already done. Workloads worsen every time another nurse leaves. Even the most basic supplies and medicines are in short supply or simply absent. The labor ward at Bottom Hospital, an aging appendage to Lilongwe Central, is especially afflicted. The hospital got its name because it is at the bottom of a hill and also because it served poor Africans during British rule. The British went to Top Hospital at the top of the hill. The sewage system at Bottom has never worked properly. The maternity ward often smells like a toilet. Blood, sweat and amniotic fluid have seeped through torn vinyl covers into the thin mattresses, adding to the stale odor. There are no bed linens, or enough scissors to cut umbilical cords. Pregnant women are required to bring a thin plastic sheet to lie on and a razor blade to slice the cord. If they forget the razor, nurses scold them and take one from the supply cabinet, breaking it in half to double its use. Bathrooms used by nurses often lack soap, raising the risk of passing infection. For two days in May, nurses refused to do vaginal exams because the ward was almost out of latex gloves — this in a country where nurses have to assume that any woman they examine may be H.I.V. positive. With only 10 nurses to cover the ward around the clock, they often have to work extra shifts. The hospital has almost no money for such expenses. For overtime, they earn less than 20 cents an hour. Lured by Money and Comfort Mrs. Kunkeyani, the glue who holds the labor ward together, has decided she must leave Malawi for the sake of her family. Like many employed people in a country where life expectancy has fallen to 38 years, she and her husband, Isaac, a civil engineer, are helping support eight orphaned nieces and nephews, as well as their 9-year-old daughter. The Kunkeyanis have been trying to complete construction of their red brick home over the past two and a half years, but money has been scarce. For almost a year, they lived without electricity. They cooked over a wood fire behind the house. They ate dinner by the light of a hurricane lantern. Mrs. Kunkeyani rose at 5 each morning to heat pails of water for bathing. Their money woes are constant and nagging. Her daughter was recently sent home from the private school she attends because the Kunkeyanis had not kept up with the fees. They can only afford meat once a week, on Saturday. They drink their tea black, to save on the cost of milk. When the letter of acceptance from Britain's Nursing and Midwifery Council arrived in April, Mr. Kunkeyani ripped it open. He phoned his wife, at work on the ward. She said she literally jumped for joy. Mrs. Kunkeyani has only to look to her elder cousin, Jane Banda, to see what her family can gain by moving to Britain. Like Mrs. Kunkeyani, Mrs. Banda was herself the nurse in charge on the labor ward at Bottom in the mid-1990's and led Malawi's national breast-feeding program until she moved to England in 2001. Mrs. Banda, 44, reared the teenage Mrs. Kunkeyani and inspired her to be a nurse. Once again, she has scouted the way ahead. She now lives in a modest two-story house on a quiet, winding lane in a tidy English city that she asked not be named to protect her privacy. She works full time as a nurse on a surgical recovery ward in a National Health Service hospital where she cares for five patients or so. 'Here, you go into wards, they're spic and span, like hotels,' she said admiringly. She puts in another 10 hours a week in an elegantly appointed nursing home looking after elderly men and women who sit in comfortable club chairs watching television. Her husband, B. F. Banda, a slender, bespectacled former bureaucrat, used to be in charge of human resources planning for Malawi in the office of the president — a good perch for assessing the shortcomings in pay for government nurses and their value elsewhere. He explained that Malawian nurses like his wife who go to Britain generally started in private nursing homes. Once established, they apply to the National Health Service, which offers a steady salary and good benefits. Despite taxes and the higher cost of living, Mrs. Banda said she lived comfortably. Starting pay for a nurse in the National Health Service is about $31,000, but she has progressed beyond that. She also earns $21 for each hour of overtime. Mrs. Banda is able to send more money home to her parents each month than her cousin, Mrs. Kunkeyani, earns in a month. 'If I'm broke, I simply phone her and the following day she sends me 200 pounds,' said Mrs. Banda's husband, who remains in Malawi and now works as a management consultant. With their expanded income, the Bandas are building a new house in Lilongwe, where she will settle after their three children finish school in Britain. It is ornamented with intricate, wood-inlaid ceilings and glittery terrazzo pillars. It will boast servants quarters, an orchard of mango, guava and banana trees and security cameras at a gated entrance. Another nurse who left Lilongwe Central, after 15 years there, is Chimewmwe Nhlane, who has worked in a private hospital in Bristol for three years. She is thrilled with her new job. Her salary tops $35,000 a year, and she receives annual merit raises and bonuses. For outstanding work, the hospital gives her a box of chocolates or a bottle of wine. She tells the British nurses she works with, 'What I'm doing here is child's play compared to what I was doing at home.' The recruitment of nurses like Mrs. Banda and Mrs. Nhlane has long been a sore subject with Britain's former African colonies. Nelson Mandela, when he was South Africa's president, criticized Britain for recruiting its health workers. The country has spent $1 billion educating health workers who migrated abroad — the equivalent of a third of all development aid it received from 1994 to 2000, according to a report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. But even as the British prime minister, Tony Blair, has championed increased foreign aid to Africa, his government has faced political pressure to improve health care at home. The government has since hired tens of thousands of nurses, many from overseas. In 2001, Britain adopted codes to limit the government's active recruitment of health professionals from developing countries. But the code does not apply to private recruitment agencies or private employers. Nor does it prohibit the National Health Service from hiring foreign nurses who apply on their own. Since 1998, 12,115 African nurses have registered to work in Britain. A debate has begun within the British government about the migration of health workers. Sarah Mullally, chief nursing officer for the Department of Health, said, 'We can't stop mobility — that would be against human rights to say people can't move.' But Suma Chakrabarti, who heads Britain's Department for International Development, voiced discomfort with some consequences of government policies. 'Frankly, it's too easy to get into the U.K., which may be good for the U.K., but may have a deleterious effect on Malawi,' said Mr. Chakrabarti, who visited Lilongwe Central earlier this year and saw firsthand its depleted staff. A similar debate is going on in Malawi. Joseph Mutso-Bengo, a professor of bioethics at Malawi's College of Medicine, noted that nurses could barely make ends meet and asked, 'Do we have the right to force them to stay?' But Anthony D. Harries, a British doctor who has lived and worked here for 15 years and advises the Health Ministry, called it immoral for Britain to allow the easy migration of Malawian nurses. 'Come on,' he said, 'train your own unemployed people.' Hard Time at the Labor Ward Night had fallen. The labor ward at Bottom seethed with the moans, shrieks and whimpers of women suffering through childbirth. 'The Look of Love' played scratchily on a transistor radio propped on the counter. Babies were being born at a steady, intense pace. The two nurses on duty sometimes did not have time even to mop up puddles of amniotic fluid and blood the new mothers lay in before moving to another bedside. As the clock neared midnight, the two nurses had already delivered a dozen babies and still had eight or nine hours of work ahead of them. 'Nurse, nurse, please help me, I'm in pain,' pleaded one woman. Lesnat Chatambalala, a small-boned, soft-spoken nurse, approached her and said tersely, 'It isn't time yet.' 'Please, help me, I'm begging you,' the woman insisted in a quavering voice. Mrs. Chatambalala walked away. She began talking about her desire to quit for work in a private organization in Malawi that pays better. 'I'm willing to go to the U.K., but I can't leave my kids,' she said miserably. For Mrs. Chatambalala, 36, there is no respite. Her husband, a high school biology teacher, was hospitalized last year. Doctors found he had a candida infection common to people with AIDS. But before he could be tested, he jumped off a fourth-floor balcony in Lilongwe Central. Mrs. Chatambalala is now the sole support for their four children. After 15 hours of hard labor on the ward, she trudged the final steps home in her dusty black pumps and white dress. Her children were in the courtyard waiting for her. Two-year-old Sterns climbed in her lap and wrapped his arms around her neck. More work lay ahead of her. There were children to be bathed, a house to be cleaned. Back on the labor ward, an exhausted Mrs. Kunkeyani was starting her seventh straight day shift. She was alone when the babies started coming out in such rapid succession that she could not be there for four of the births. She and the women there described later what had happened. Faida Yusuf, 20, had her first baby alone on the floor. The force of the final push ripped her vaginal wall because Mrs. Kunkeyani was not present to guide the baby boy's head at its narrowest diameter or to make a neat incision. Finally, four hours later, Mrs. Kunkeyani found time to suture the tear, but Mrs. Yusuf pulled away. A big-hearted woman with reserves of steely religious faith, Mrs. Kunkeyani coaxed and cajoled the frightened young mother. 'Don't be scared,' she said soothingly. 'You've already been brave. Please trust me. You know when somebody is cut by a razor blade. It hurts, right?' 'Yes,' Mrs. Faida said uncertainly. 'So it's like that,' the nurse told her, explaining she needed to give her an injection to blunt the pain. 'Be brave. The tear is inside.' Again, the mother drew away, pulling her legs close into her body. 'You must lie back,' Mrs. Kunkeyani insisted. 'We can't leave the wound. It has to be stitched. There's no other way. You're saying you're hungry. You can't eat until I finish. What do you want me to do? Leave?'

Subject: Real Estate From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 10:19:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There is much to consider in taking a house as a store of wealth. After all, if my home rises in value but I choose to continue to live in it than it only becomes a useful form of wealth if I borrow on the increase in value and invest the loan. As far as I can tell however, borrowing on a home is used for consumption far more than investment. Besides, home markets differ much in appreciation but in general home values have only paced inflation over a century. So, I look to the value of real estate investment trusts as a gauge of the wealth to be accumulated in commercial real estate. These last 30 years, REITs have outgrown large and small, domestic and international stock indexes in value. There is a trick here in that the REIT index at Vanguard has only been available to investors for less than a decade. Nonetheless, the REIT index has shown remarkable growth these 30 years.

Subject: Investing From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 09:00:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: This is an interesting time for investors since the lengthy bull market in bonds appears to be over, and besides long term yields have for months been low enough that investors could expect the 25 year period of reaping capital gains was about ended. Then, whether or not there are selective bubbles in real estate there is little reason to expect that price appreciation will be more than marginal for a period. Besides, operating earnings for real estate investment trusts have been fairly limited for more than 4 years. This leaves stocks as the main potential source of asset wealth increase for a while. Interesting.

Subject: Re: Investing From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 12:14:45 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'This leaves stocks as the main potential source of asset wealth increase for a while.' In the present economic climate caution is paramount and some sort of hedge against dollar shrinkage. My wife and I are 40% short term treasuries. The rest is in energy stocks, precious metals, pharmaceuticals, and conservative allocation funds like Permanent Portfolio. We're considering selling some of the energy stocks to purchase more short term treasuries. I believe this Christmas will be tough on retailers, oil and natural gas will remain high and likely begin to climb higher at some point (especially if it's a cold winter), so 2006 is going to be tough on the stock markets (IMO). If Shiller and Krugman are right housing should begin to decline in 2006. Long term rates appear to be headed higher. All of this will be very tough on an overindebted economy. So there is certainly some danger of a steep and broad market decline.

Subject: Re: Investing From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 16:01:22 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Seems like a secure portfolio while the Federal Reserve is tightening. Forty percent in short term bonds is quite enough given what else you have in the portfolio.

Subject: Re: Investing From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 20:10:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Unless you anticipate a recession, there is little reason to sell energy company stocks. Dividends are decent and there is no reason to expect earnings to soon decline so capital gains should hold. I still like energy, a lot. Whether I make a little more or less in capital gains in the near term, I cannot tell but do not worry about. The fundamentals are excellent for energy stocks in general.

Subject: Re: Investing From: Pete Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 09:35:17 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I think we probably get a recession in 2006-2007. I think a long term downturn smilar to Japan's is very possible. As I have stated US stock markets, in general, are very overvalued given the present economic climate. IMO, a combined stock market and housing decline in the near term coupled with a heavily indebted consumer and continued high energy costs will drop consumption considerably. Japan's slump was prolongued and gradual. I think the booming US economy and American consumers buying Japanese goods at a heavy pace during the 90's, which continued during the housing boom of the early 2000's has helped Japan's downturn to be gradual. Throughout their period of economic troubles they have maintained a trade surplus with net wealth being absorbed into their economy. Unfortunately, the US has had a trade deficit for many years now and it now exceeds 6% of GDP. This has resulted in a great deal of personal debt. So the dollar is at risk because of this. Future government bailouts of pension plans, corporations 'too big to fail', and financial institutions 'too big to fail', as well as the government's many other obligations will require a lot of government borrowing. This again will put downward pressure on the dollar. Higher interest rates over time will be required to keep the US dollar from collapsing. So, unless the Chinese and East Indians start buying US products and services at a much higher level than they are now, any US downturn if it gets going (I think it will) will not be as gradual as Japan's. Rather than earning US dollars into existence we have been, largely, borrowing US dollars into existence. The bill is coming due. So with regard to energy stocks - I'm torn. They are a hedge against a falling dollar and I think that the evidence is pretty good that we will see a worldwide decline in oil production in the coming years. But I think we could also get a deep and prolongued recession/depression. I believe that the stocks which will weather this the best will be pharmaceuticals (unless price controls are instituted on drugs in the US - very possible) and energy since production could fall faster than demand.

Subject: Re: Investing From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 11:10:53 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There is no sign of an economic weakening. Growth of 3.8% is robust for this late in a Federal Reserve tightening sequence. Also, no country in which housing has slowed has found more than a minor problem with slow growth. I find no recession in the near term.

Subject: Re: Investing From: Jennifer To: Jennifer Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 20:27:12 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Look at the Vanguard high yield bond fund now and then. This is a conservative junk bond fund, and should be increasingly attractive if interest rates keep rising. The duration makes it an intermediate term fund. I still like stocks, however.

Subject: Five Years Later and Still Floating From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 07:20:46 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/10/opinion/10grant.html?ex=1268197200&en=c3e1f9ca3586448c&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland March 10, 2005 Five Years Later and Still Floating By JAMES GRANT TODAY marks the fifth anniversary of the peak of the great millennial stock market. What were you doing when the lights began to dim? Were you a bull or a bear? Rich or otherwise? What about today? Are you inoculated against the new alleged sure things? Or perhaps you believe in the permanent hegemony of the dollar in the world's currency markets? In the inevitability of rising house prices? Or of falling interest rates? Answer true or false: the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is clairvoyant. From the March 2000 top to the October 2002 trough, the United States stock market gave up more than half of its quoted value, some $9.2 trillion. Five years ago today, Cisco Systems was the world's biggest company by market capitalization. Its line of business, the computer networking business, was universally heralded as the industry of the future. Owners of Cisco still devoutly hope it is. They have lost 75 percent of their investment. Americans hate to lose, especially when it comes to money, and they've demanded an accounting of the misdeeds of the bubble era. A certain number of former chief executives, like Bernard Ebbers of WorldCom, have had to answer the charges against them in court. And Congress, in 2002, overhauled and stiffened the nation's securities laws. But the chairman, governors and staff of the Federal Reserve have yet to be called to account. Booms and busts are recurrent in history and in nations. In not every episode was there a culpable central bank. But in virtually every case, there was a clever neighbor. The unbearable sight of a neighbor getting rich in the stock market in the late 1990's made millions of Americans bipolar. Shopping at Wal-Mart, they would pay any price except full retail. Investing in the stock market, however, they would pay nothing but. By the late 1990's, stocks had lost any connection to the value of the businesses in which they represented partial ownership. Picture an artful consumer settling into a discounted hotel room for the night. Now try to imagine this savvy individual formulating a calculated financial decision to make a meal of the $10 cashews and the $6 candy bars on sale in the hotel minibar. That was Wall Street a half decade ago. And, to a lesser but still striking degree, it is still Wall Street today - and Main Street, too. The Federal Reserve did not stand idly by after the bubble burst. It radically reduced the interest rate it controls (the so-called federal funds rate), pushing it from 6.5 percent in May 2000 to 1 percent by June 2003. Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Fed, had worried about a stock market bubble as early as 1995, had warned against 'irrational exuberance' in 1996, and batted around the possibility that there might, indeed, be a stock-market bubble in discussions with his Federal Reserve colleagues as late as 1999. But he was not the man to stick a pin in the bubble. Indeed, he himself became a vociferous booster of the 'New Economy.' In a speech he gave only four days before the Nasdaq touched its high, he sounded as if he were working for Merrill Lynch, cheering that 'the capital spending boom is still going strong.' Should the boom turn to bust, the chairman had testified before Congress less than a year before, the Fed would 'mitigate the fallout when it occurs and, hopefully, ease the transition to the next expansion.' In so many words, Mr. Greenspan promised that the Fed would make money cheaper and more plentiful than it would otherwise be. He would override the market's judgment with his own. Nobody in earshot quoted the words of the German central banker Hjalmar Schacht, who protested in 1927: 'Don't give me a low rate. Give me a true rate, and then I shall know how to put my house in order.' Someone should have. Interest rates are the traffic lights of a market economy. To investors, they signal when to go and when to stop. Under the Fed's bubble recovery program, every interest-rate light turned green. With no lights flashing red or even amber, investors sped through the financial intersections. They paid more for houses, office buildings and junk bonds than they would have if interest rates were not hugging 40-year lows. The proliferation of dollars helped to lift the stock market out of its doldrums - though the doldrums of 2002 were singularly shallow ones. In comparison to earlier bear market lows, bargains were scarce on the ground (by March 2000, stocks were uniquely overvalued; never before had a dollar of corporate earnings been so costly to buy). At the checkout counter, inflation was well-nigh invisible. On Wall Street, however, it was - and still is - on the rise. To hear Mr. Greenspan tell it in 1999, post-bubble damage control was as simple as cutting interest rates. He passed lightly over the possible consequences of the rates he cut. The list so far includes a bubble-like housing market (geographically localized but ferocious), an overheated debt market (this one spans the globe) and a steady depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Consuming much more than it produces, the United States emits hundreds of billions of greenbacks into the world's payment stream every year - about $600 billion in 2004. The recipients of these dollars willingly invest them in American assets if the price is right. On the evidence of the dollar's decline, the price - the available rate of return - is too low. Ultra-low interest rates not only serve to inflate the value of bonds, stocks and real estate. They also entice investors in those assets to employ the elixir called 'leverage.' Leverage means debt. Borrowing at 2.5 percent, a speculator can invest at 3 percent and still make a handsome living - if he or she can be sure when 2.5 percent might be raised to 2.75 percent or 3 percent. The Fed is happy to oblige. Forswearing the element of surprise in its policy actions, it has told the market exactly what it proposes to do. Paying close attention, professional investors, including thousands of hedge funds, have borrowed fearlessly. A little fear would help to improve the quality of financial stewardship. 'A stock well bought is half sold,' said the Wall Street ancients. What they meant is that success in investing depends on one's entry price. As Congress debates an overhaul of Social Security to permit tax-advantaged saving by millions of new investors, a passage from the new Berkshire Hathaway annual report warrants attention. 'We don't enjoy sitting on $43 billion of cash equivalents that are earning paltry returns,' writes Warren Buffett, Berkshire's chairman. 'Instead, we yearn to buy more fractional interests similar to those we now own or - better still - more large businesses outright. We will do either, however, only when purchases can be made at prices that offer us the prospect of a reasonable return on our investment.' Five years later, the bubble is still unpopped.

Subject: Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 06:52:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/27/business/worldbusiness/27oil.html October 27, 2005 Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil By JEFF GERTH WASHINGTON - Last spring, the White House publicly embraced plans by Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production capacity significantly. But privately, some officials and others advising the government are skeptical about some of those Saudi forecasts. The United States relies on a few producers to maintain enough spare capacity to keep prices and markets stable, even during war or disaster. As oil prices have climbed over the last few years amid surging demand and tight supplies, the Bush administration has looked to the Persian Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to pump extra oil. But doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand capacity - and for how long - have been raised in a secret intelligence report and in a separate analysis by a leading government oil adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert. If those skeptical assessments are correct, the administration's hopes of increasing supplies would become still more difficult to fulfill. Washington's expectations about oil production from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have proved overly optimistic, and the White House has failed to heed advice about both those countries from industry and government specialists, according to documents and interviews. The challenges facing the Bush administration on energy come as oil companies are set to report record profits resulting from soaring prices for oil and natural gas. Exxon Mobil, the world's largest private oil company, is expected Thursday to announce a quarterly profit exceeding $8.5 billion, more than companies like Intel and Time Warner earn in a full year. Asked about the profits on Wednesday, the White House press secretary, Scott McClellan, said 'the government and the private sector have a role to play' in restoring the vital infrastructure damaged by the hurricanes this year along the Gulf of Mexico and over Florida. Gasoline prices spiked after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, straining oil markets already tight because of the uncommonly low levels of spare capacity. But when it comes to oil supply, American companies are limited: the countries that control most of the world's oil keep out private producers. So whatever the political repercussions from high energy costs, the administration has had little choice but to rely on the promises by Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, that it would continue to be the market's linchpin. 'There's always been this tenet on the American side,' said Nawaf Obaid, a consultant to Saudi Arabia on energy security, 'that the Saudis knew what they were doing and rightfully so.' But a senior intelligence official, who insisted on remaining anonymous because he was not permitted to speak publicly on the issue, said that the Saudi plans to increase production by nearly 14 percent in the next four years were not enough to meet global demand. Even the Energy Information Administration recently scaled back its expectations of how much more oil the Saudis could pump in 20 years. To be sure, as Mr. McClellan said Wednesday, there is more to President Bush's energy policy than seeking to ensure surplus capacity. The administration has called for increasing domestic production and refineries, development of alternative and renewable fuels, expanding nuclear energy and, recently, greater conservation. Still, the Persian Gulf countries are seen as crucial in moderating future prices. During the 2000 presidential campaign, when high gasoline prices were an issue, Mr. Bush pledged to do a better job of influencing Persian Gulf producers to pump more oil. Early on, the administration was mostly interested in whether the Saudis would produce more oil during the anticipated conflict in Iraq. Long before the war began, Saudi spare capacity - roughly three million barrels a day above the seven million barrels being pumped daily in 2002 - seemed adequate. Productive capacity depends on the amount of oil in the ground as well as the infrastructure required to drill, process, store and transport the oil. In addition, increasing capacity is very costly and time-consuming. 'The long-term capacity was not considered a problem,' said Robert W. Jordan, the American ambassador to Riyadh from 2001 to 2003. The Saudis, he added, 'never expressed any concern about the need to expand.' 'Nor did we, or at least me, engage them on this topic,' he said. In April 2002, when President Bush met Crown Prince Abdullah, now the Saudi king, the focus was not on oil but on Israeli-Palestinian matters, according to Mr. Jordan. The United States did not press the capacity issue because, even two years later, Saudi officials were publicly expressing confidence that there was no need over the next five years to add capacity. Going to 12 million or 15 million barrels a day was possible, though, because the country had an estimated 150 billion barrels above the 260 billion in proven reserves, Nansen G. Saleri, a senior Saudi oil executive, said at an oil conference in Washington in February 2004. Soon, though, rising demand from Asia made the need to invest in new production 'a front-burner issue,' according to Spencer Abraham, energy secretary in the president's first term. By May 2004, under pressure from the United States and other consumers, the Saudis promised to pump more oil. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, was planning to increase capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day by 2009. Before long, Ali al-Naimi, the oil minister, and Saudi oil executives were saying that the country could add 200 billion barrels - from existing fields and yet-to-be-discovered resources - to its reserves, enabling production of 15 million barrels a day for 50 years or perhaps longer. Just before meeting with Prince Abdullah in April, President Bush said he wanted 'a straight answer' about how much extra oil the Saudis could pump. At that session in Texas, the prince reaffirmed the previously announced expansion plans. Saudi Arabia's capacity now stands at about 11 million barrels a day. The Saudis pump about 9.5 million barrels, leaving a cushion of about 1.5 million barrels, mostly of heavier grades not very usable in the West. There is virtually no other global spare capacity. Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, told reporters after the meeting that the Saudi program was 'a very good plan because it addresses the underlying issue you have when you talk about price, which is an issue of availability of oil and availability of capacity.' But there are doubts about the Saudi assertions about how much oil they have. Data about reserves is tightly guarded, and the Saudis dismiss skeptics as uninformed. But they do not dismiss Edward O. Price Jr., the former head of exploration for Saudi Aramco and an adviser to the United States government on Persian Gulf oil during both Iraq wars. He questioned future reliance on Saudi capacity in an article in The New York Times last year and wanted to know from his former colleagues how they reached their estimate of more than 150 billion barrels of extra oil. Twenty years ago, a detailed study by geologists from four large American oil companies then in partnership with Aramco found little in the way of undiscovered oil resources, he said. Mr. Saleri, who manages Saudi reservoirs, met with Mr. Price in the United States last year. Saudi Aramco officials declined to respond to questions about the meeting. But Mr. Price said in an interview that Mr. Saleri told him that the basis for the higher oil figures was a global study in 2000 by the United States Geological Survey estimating Saudi Arabia's undiscovered resources at 87 billion barrels. Mr. Price said he responded that the estimates 'by the U.S.G.S. had no credibility and far exceeded the detailed studies by the old Aramco team.' The Aramco study, unlike the survey estimate, involved detailed field work. Questions about Saudi Arabia's long-term estimates were also raised last year in a report by the National Intelligence Council, an advisory panel that produces the government's most authoritative intelligence estimates, according to a government official who insisted on not being identified because the report was classified. In addition to Saudi Arabia, the Bush administration has viewed the United Arab Emirates as a supplier with excess capacity. In 2001, the emirates planned to increase capacity to 3 million barrels a day by 2005 from 2.5 million barrels a day then. But capacity has not grown in four years, which one administration official attributes to a lack of urgency by emirates officials and a lack of high-level attention by American officials. An energy policy report by Vice President Dick Cheney in May 2001 recommended that the president actively support initiatives in Persian Gulf nations allowing foreign investment that could lead to increased production. The United Arab Emirates was cited as one of the few countries that could increase its oil-production capacity. A status report on Mr. Cheney's task force, released in January by the Energy Department, said administration officials moved to carry out the recommendation in four countries. The U.A.E. was not among them, however, and the president was not mentioned in the report. When Mr. Bush spoke after the Iraq war with Sheik Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahayan, the emirates' ruler until his death late last year, he discussed security and Iraq, not oil investment issues, according to a Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of not being identified because of the sensitive nature of discussions between heads of state. A White House spokesman declined to comment. Since the status report in January, the emirates announced that they would increase capacity to 2.7 million barrels a day by 2006, and long-stalled negotiations with Exxon Mobil to develop an offshore field began moving to completion. But the country's capacity remains at 2.5 million barrels a day, with nothing in reserve, according to the Energy Information Administration. In Iraq, too, the Bush administration's hopes have been disappointed. The removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003 changed Iraq from a pariah into a possible backstop for global oil markets. Soon after the invasion, top administration officials were bullish about Iraq's production: they said it would exceed the prewar level of 2.5 million barrels a day and reach 3 million barrels by the end of 2003 or late 2004. But a report in July by the Government Accountability Office found that Iraqi production had declined since late 2004 to 2.1 million barrels a day from 2.5 million barrels, despite White House legislative requests for almost $3 billion to restore the oil industry there to its prewar abilities. An important reason for the decline, the report found, was improper management of the reservoirs. Gary Edson, then a deputy national security adviser, was told two years ago that Iraqi production would drop, not increase, according to an outside report presented to him. A White House spokesman, Frederick Jones, declined to discuss the report. But, according to Wayne Kelley, a petroleum engineer who wrote the report and discussed it with Mr. Edson in November 2003, the message fell on deaf ears.

Subject: Cow Politics From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 06:14:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/27/opinion/27thur1.html October 27, 2005 Cow Politics The Australian trade minister, Mark Vaile, pointed out the other day that a typical cow in the European Union receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day - more than what 1.2 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day. Some experts say the developed world could lift 140 million people out of that mire of poverty if it really reformed the way it managed agricultural trade. So why is the current round of trade negotiations coming down to the wire, as usual? Will Europe, Japan and America actually keep the promise they made four years ago in Doha, Qatar, to slash their subsidies to farmers? Such a move would finally begin the long-delayed dismantling of a distorted program that has helped rich farmers in the developed world at the expense of poor farmers in the developing world. But in these last few weeks before the big World Trade Organization meeting in Hong Kong, where negotiators are supposed to reach a deal, attacks and counterattacks are flying. The big industrialized nations are leaving no stone unturned in their quest to keep protecting their farmers. The United States trade representative, Robert Portman, took a big step toward doing the right thing earlier this month when he proposed that the United States would slash allowable farm subsidies by 60 percent if Europe and Japan would cut their subsidies by 83 percent. (The percentage is higher because European countries and Japan have higher subsidies.) Given all the noise the British prime minister, Tony Blair, and his European colleagues have made about the need to 'make poverty history,' you would think that the Europeans would jump at the American proposal. Think again. In Europe, farmers are apparently terrified of having to compete without the government around to hold their hands. So the European Union has not only not made a meaningful counteroffer, but France - the worst of a bad lot - is also doing everything it can to get in the way of even the anemic talk of compromise from the European Union's trade chief, Peter Mandelson. 'If you don't believe in trade, then why are you a member of the W.T.O.?' a frustrated Mr. Portman asked rhetorically. Funny, we were just wondering that ourselves. The developed world funnels nearly $1 billion a day in subsidies to its farmers, encouraging overproduction. That drives down prices and leaves farmers in poor nations unable to compete with subsidized products, even within their own countries. In recent years, American farmers have dumped cotton and other products on world markets at prices that do not begin to cover their cost of production. Europe's system is even worse; the United States' farm subsidies are only a third of Europe's. It is past time for European leaders to match their actions to their lip service about free and fair trade. A cow in France shouldn't make more than a farmer in Burkina Faso. That is just shameful. But let's not let the United States government entirely off the hook. The lawmakers in Congress who coddle rich American corporate farmers - often to the detriment of small family farmers - are not helping things. The Senate Agriculture Committee just voted to extend the subsidies paid to growers of cotton, rice and other commodities until 2011, subsidies that were supposed to expire in the 2007 farm bill. This political move is made worse by sneaking the subsidies into a budget bill rather than properly debating them as part of the farm bill. The Bush administration has done a good job so far in opposing these myriad forms of agribusiness welfare. The United States trade negotiators say the Senate Agriculture Committee's move will make their job at the trade organization talks more difficult. It's hard to preach the free trade gospel abroad when lawmakers at home are busily taking care of their own special interests.

Subject: Tax Reform for Another Day From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 05:34:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/27/opinion/27thur2.html October 27, 2005 Tax Reform for Another Day Nearly 30 years ago, in the waning days of the Ford administration, a compendium of tax-reform proposals entitled 'Blueprints for Basic Tax Reform' was pronounced dead on arrival in government offices throughout Washington. A decade later, many of the ideas bore fruit in the vast and generally constructive Tax Reform Act of 1986. The final report of President Bush's tax reform panel, due Tuesday, may have a similar fate. Popular discontent with advance word on its recommendations is sure to spook Congress into inaction in the coming election year, especially on proposals to limit the mortgage-interest deduction, abolish the deduction for state and local taxes, and reduce the write-off for employer-provided health insurance. Tackling a job as challenging as tax reform in a serious and fair way requires exceptional leadership. Even if Mr. Bush has the desire and ability to take on such a task, there is the danger that the midterm elections will leave him too much of a lame duck to do it. Bipartisanship is also essential to rewriting the tax code, and that is hardly this president's strong suit. Mr. Bush is not even likely to have the support of his own right wing, which wants a less progressive tax code than the panel envisions. That's fine with us. The panel's expected report deserves the death sentence that awaits it - but not because it's entirely unworthy. The panel appears to have done an admirable job of addressing many difficult issues in a competent way. Even the limits on popular deductions, which have inspired visions of a dagger pointed at the heart of the middle class, are not as objectionable when combined with other proposed changes that would make up for the loss of valuable write-offs for working Americans. What damns this particular effort are the constraints placed on it from the outset. Mr. Bush directed the panel to assume that the temporary tax cuts passed during his first term - which mainly benefit the wealthy - would be made permanent, rather than expiring as scheduled in the next two to four years. The president also told the panel that a reformed tax code should raise the same amount of revenue that would be raised by a tax system in which his tax cuts had been made permanent. Those assumptions build in a huge cut in future revenues that would ensure never-ending deficits and, with them, either tax increases to narrow the gap or sharp reductions in vital government programs like Medicare and Social Security. In fact, the cost of making the tax cuts permanent is three times as large as the long-term shortfall in Social Security. The country needs a better tax system. But the president's insistence on making his tax cuts permanent has undermined his panel's efforts to address long-term needs. The short-term answer, however, is simple: Congress must stop the bleeding from this administration's reckless tax-cutting agenda.

Subject: Good Grief and Good Riddance From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 05:41:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The recommendations of the President's tax panel are quite nutty, but that brings up the question how could a panel of Republican appointees, which is what they are, be so nutty as to fail to understand even the interests of those who appointed them? Good grief, and good riddance.

Subject: Rising Interest Rates From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 17:01:13 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Long term interest rates for the time being at least are rising. We are finally recording a 4.6% long term Treasury yield after 11 Federal reserve rate increases. The guess is that long term interest rates are the most important threat to the stock and real estate markets, and once again it really really looks as though the bull market in bonds is gone.

Subject: The Benefits of the Boom From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 11:16:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/realestate/23cov.html?ex=1287720000&en=3fba5dc4202365c9&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 23, 2005 The Benefits of the Boom By DENNIS HEVESI IT seems counterintuitive, but the luxury real estate market is helping to build housing for low- and moderate-income people. Sometimes, the deals create what could be called sibling buildings - for example, a 42-story luxury tower on West 43rd Street is linked to five renovated tenement buildings nine blocks to the north. It was a good deal for both. The beige-brick luxury building, called the Ivy Tower, is seven stories taller than it would have been had its developers not agreed to help finance the gut rehabilitation of those century-old buildings at the northwest corner of 52nd Street and 10th Avenue - creating 27 apartments for lower-income people. The developers of the Ivy Tower benefited by getting 42 additional units, with rents ranging from $1,850 for a studio to $6,500 for a penthouse. But the tenants on 52nd Street, where the five dilapidated tenements were combined and thoroughly modernized, also revel in their good fortune. 'This is like luxury, so beautiful,' said Sister Kathleen Cox, one of four nuns who live together in a three-bedroom apartment in the once-condemned buildings. Rents in the rehabbed building range from $297 a month for a studio to $947 for a three-bedroom. The tradeoff linking the Ivy Tower to Sister Kathleen's relatively sumptuous quarters was made possible through what is known as inclusionary zoning, one of several city programs that provide incentives for market-rate developers to contribute to the inventory of affordable housing. They can buy extra space for their buildings from affordable housing developers; include affordable apartments in their buildings; or buy city-issued certificates from developers of affordable housing that allow them to pay lower property taxes. 'The traditional equation,' said Shaun Donovan, the commissioner of the Department of Housing Preservation and Development, 'has been that the stronger the real estate market, the harder it is to provide affordable housing. These programs turn that old equation on its head because the stronger the market, the greater the incentive for developers to use these programs and, therefore, provide affordable housing.' As housing economists point out, the market-driven programs do not meet the city's great need for the production of affordable units - but they make a dent. And their impact is expected to increase in the next few years as builders, aware of the city's growing population, take advantage of recently enhanced incentives to build in rezoned areas like the Hudson Yards and West Chelsea in Manhattan, and Greenpoint and Williamsburg in Brooklyn. But for Sister Kathleen and her roommates, Sisters Joan Kirby, Margaret Coakley and Judy Garson - all members of the Religious of the Sacred Heart - the impact of those incentives is already deeply felt. Three years ago, the nuns were evicted from a tenement building on West 49th Street because a fifth nun, the one whose name was on the lease, had moved into a retirement home near Albany. They used to pay $1,284 for the railroad flat in the old building, with its bathtub in the kitchen, toilet in the hallway, no lock on the front door and rarely seen superintendent. Now, at $337 a month less, they are in a rehabbed building with a corniced roof and arched terra cotta windows. 'It's day and night,' Sister Margaret said. 'We have sunlight, fresh air; we have the garden outside. There's doors on the closets, doors on our rooms.' Sister Joan said, 'Here, if any little nick in the floor comes, a tile comes loose, the super fixes it immediately.' Sister Kathleen says she appreciates 'the variety of families in the building; we're elderly, and we just had a little baby down the hall.' To which Sister Margaret added, 'Just on this floor, we have four different countries.' Under the program that linked the two buildings, developers can build an extra four square feet of market-rate space for every square foot of affordable space that is created. If the affordable project is done off-site, it must be within the same community-board area or within half a mile of where the market-rate development is being constructed. Part of the concept is to foster mixed-income communities. The rehabilitation of the 52nd Street building retained the early 1900's exterior of the five tenements with a thoroughly modernized interior. 'It went from walk-ups to elevator,' said Joe Restuccia, executive director of the Clinton Housing Development Company, which, along with another affordable housing company, L&M Equities, developed the project. 'It has 27 apartments, a community garden.' The renovated building has more than 25,000 square feet of space. That generated more than 100,000 square feet of extra development space, which was eventually divided among three luxury developers who helped finance the renovation. The largest share, 45,186 square feet, was sold to the builders of the Ivy Tower. Mr. Restuccia appreciates the opportunity to make such deals. 'Few other cities have the incredibly dynamic real estate market we have where there's such a spread between the market rents and the affordable housing rents,' he said. 'So, because market-rate units bring in so much rental income, the projects have the ability to support a greater number of affordable units.' And with a lot more for-sale units on the market in recent years, he said, 'The economic return on a condo project easily enables a developer to include an affordable housing component while having greater returns.' Bernard Friedman, the president of the Penmark Realty Corporation, a partner in the development of Ivy Tower, savored another sort of return from the link between his building and Mr. Restuccia's affordable project. When he witnessed people who had lived in ramshackle buildings moving into the West 52nd Street building, he recalled, 'some of them had tears in their eyes.' 'It's a two-way street,' Mr. Friedman said. 'We are contributing to low-income housing at no expense to the city and we, in turn, get the extra floors on our building.' The other luxury developers that participated along with Penmark Realty were the Brodsky Organization and the Steinberg & Pokoik Management Corporation. Adrienne Brockington has no notion of the intricacies of another city program that allows luxury developers to profit by supporting low-income housing: the 421-a tax abatement program. But she is glad to be living in a new development - with high porches, lawns and walkways - on Loring Avenue in East New York, Brooklyn. Rents there range from $525 a month for a studio to $646 for a two-bedroom. 'It looks like down South, like in Virginia,' Ms. Brockington said. 'It's gated, with security. It has grass in the complex' - a far cry from the rough street in Bushwick where she lived for eight years, until 2002. The 187 apartments in three-story town houses at 1426 Loring Avenue were developed by the Arker Companies, which has built more than 3,000 affordable rental units in Brooklyn, the Bronx and Manhattan, in large part by selling 421-a certificates. Under the program, a developer of affordable housing can sell the city-issued certificates to developers of new luxury buildings - primarily those between 96th Street and Houston Street in Manhattan - providing a 10-year property tax abatement on the market-rate building. The current negotiable rate for 421-a certificates is about $13,000 for each luxury apartment. The stronger the luxury market - meaning the greater the value of a new building - the higher its property taxes will be; and, therefore, the greater the benefit in buying a tax abatement. So, if a developer is selling condominiums with reduced property taxes, buyers will be able to afford higher purchase prices because their tax bills will be lower. Sol Arker, a principal of the family-owned company, said that about 930 certificates were sold to help finance the construction of 1426 Loring Avenue. The 421-a program 'is only one component in the city's efforts to meet the housing needs of lower-income people,' Mr. Arker said. 'I don't believe there's one silver bullet that produces all of the affordable housing needed, but it significantly helps.' It certainly helped Ms. Brockington. 'I'm on disability because I had a stroke two years ago,' said Ms. Brockington, 40, the mother of two daughters - one 18, the other 18 months old - who recently also took custody of her 15-year-old grandniece. Ms. Brockington, who is in a program that teaches computer skills, was one of the applicants picked in a lottery run by the Department of Housing Preservation and Development to live in the Loring Avenue development. Her old neighborhood, she said, 'was drug-infested; there were shootouts all the time.' A total of 4,271 affordable units have been created through the inclusionary and 421-a programs. 'It's sort of Robin Hood,' said Adam Weinstein, president of Phipps Houses, a nonprofit affordable housing group that owns or manages about 13,000 apartments in Manhattan, Queens and the Bronx. 'It's taking the enormous value in a strong market and transferring - cream skimming, in effect - some of that value for social good: affordable housing,' he said. For example, Mr. Weinstein said his organization holds 'an extremely valuable piece of real estate' on East 25th Street - an underused playground that is part of a 400-unit affordable development built 30 years ago - that will become the site of 50 more affordable apartments. Michael D. Lappin, president and chief executive of the Community Preservation Corporation, another major nonprofit housing group, said his organization had invested nearly $5 billion preserving or developing 120,000 units of affordable housing. More is on the way. Mr. Lappin said deals are being considered by churches in central Brooklyn that 'flourished in one era and now have a lot of underutilized property' - rectories or schools. If they build affordable housing on their property and finance it by selling air rights, they will also help their members. 'Their angst was that their congregants were being priced out of their neighborhoods, at $1,500 to rent a two-bedroom in a brownstone,' he said. Mr. Donovan, the city's housing commissioner, said mixed-income communities are the right model for the future. With the inclusionary program, he said, 'we're essentially creating new neighborhoods from the ground up.' He expects that 30,000 units will be built in the next few years in the recently rezoned areas of Brooklyn and on Manhattan's West Side. 'Using our new inclusionary program, which is the most aggressive in the country, along with city-owned land and other incentives,' he said, 'we expect 8,500 of those units to be affordable.' But more will certainly be needed, said George W. McCarthy, a housing economist at the Ford Foundation. Calling himself 'a big fan of inclusionary zoning and 421-a incentives,' Dr. McCarthy said, 'While these market-based programs are laudable, they are still insufficient to meet the growing needs of New York City's low- and moderate-income families.' For those who have benefited, the changes have been enormous. David Lopez, a New York City police detective, and his wife, Janet, a waitress, and their 11-year-old son, David Jr., live in the rehabbed West 52nd Street building where the four nuns also reside. They were allowed to move in after another tenement they had been living in, on West 37th Street, was closed for renovations. The Lopezes pay $840 a month for a two-bedroom. A 24-story luxury building is rising next door. 'This area is up and coming; new apartments, new buildings,' the detective said. On the open market, 'I'd definitely have a hard time finding something like this in Manhattan,' he said.

Subject: Vanguard Fund Returns From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 10:33:22 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship5.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByName Vanguard Fund Returns 12/31/04 to 10/25/05 S&P Index is 0.1 Large Cap Growth Index is 0.5 Large Cap Value Index is 1.6 Mid Cap Index is 6.4 Small Cap Index is 1.9 Small Cap Value Index is 1.5 Europe Index is 3.4 Pacific Index is 8.7 Energy is 37.0 Health Care is 9.2 Precious Metals 26.4 REIT Index is 5.8 High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is 1.3 Long Term Corporate Bond Fund is 2.6

Subject: Sector Stock Indexes From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 10:32:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsVIPERByName Sector Stock Indexes 12/31/04 - 10/25/05 Energy 34.8 Financials -0.8 Health Care 3.1 Info Tech -2.2 Materials -6.9 REITs 5.9 Telecoms -1.9 Utilities 13.2

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 10:21:35 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 10/25/05 Australia 9.9 Canada 16.9 Denmark 14.3 France 5.4 Germany 2.4 Hong Kong 5.0 Japan 9.2 Netherlands 4.1 Norway 18.5 Sweden 2.8 Switzerland 10.5 UK 2.4

Subject: Index Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 10:20:54 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 10/25/05 Australia 14.1 Canada 14.9 Denmark 28.8 France 18.4 Germany 15.0 Hong Kong 4.8 Japan 22.1 Netherlands 16.9 Norway 26.5 Sweden 21.4 Switzerland 24.1 UK 10.1

Subject: Future Shock at the Fed From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 09:49:56 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/opinion/26grant.html?ex=1287979200&en=1f4592430c5ee44b&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 26, 2005 Future Shock at the Fed By JAMES GRANT PRESIDENT BUSH's choice to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board has raised a roar of approval. Economist, scholar, presidential counselor and former Fed governor, Ben S. Bernanke is a nominee from central casting. But there is one rub. The man with the gray beard and the perfect résumé - winner of the South Carolina state spelling bee, Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, former chairman of the Princeton economics department - professes to believe the impossible. He insists that the Fed can keep the economy chugging and prices stable just by pushing a single interest rate (the so-called federal funds rate) up and down. Alan Greenspan, of course, has long espoused the same impossibility, as have other Federal Reserve officials and many private economists. A little thought experiment will reveal their error. Let us say that Mr. Bernanke's field of expertise was energy prices rather than interest rates, and that the president named him to the Department of Energy rather than the Federal Reserve. If Mr. Bernanke then ventured a long-term oil-price forecast, would anyone even bother to write it down? Would anyone expect him, once confirmed, to actually fix the price? Those who did would have to call the idea by its discredited name - price controls - and would have to explain why the secretary-designate knew better than the market at which price the supply of oil would meet the demand for oil. They would also have to explain why this episode in price controls would turn out better than the long series of flops that preceded it. The world would laugh. Yet we seem to accept, and even desire, exactly such ludicrous claims of foresight from a Fed chairman. It follows that anyone who is willing to take the job as Fed chief is, by that reason, unqualified to hold it. Wall Street, of course, has other ideas. Thus the rally in stock prices following word of Mr. Bernanke's nomination was no vote of confidence that the presumptive chairman would settle on the right, or true, federal funds rate. It was, rather, an expression of hope that he would do his all to ensure a speculatively appropriate (meaning very, very low) rate. Perhaps. But Mr. Bernanke's history shows he is not so much a believer in easy money as in the capacity of the Fed to take the right anticipatory action. Is the rate of inflation too high? Not high enough? With a twist of the monetary-policy dial, the problem is on its way to being solved. Let the Fed announce its target for inflation - say, 2 percent a year - and juggle its interest rate to cause that desired inflation rate to materialize. In so many words, the nominee contends, policymakers control events, rather than the other way around. We are all susceptible to believing an impossible thing. Mr. Bernanke has the special susceptibility of the straight-A student. The economic world he sees is his to command. He can comprehend it, even measure it (no small achievement given the subjective, even arbitrary, nature of statistical sampling and compilation). And he expresses his supreme self-confidence in some of the bluntest language ever spoken by a central banker. Late in 2002, the Fed started to warn against the risk of deflation, that is, of broadly falling prices. Now, deflation is no bad thing if you find yourself at the cash register with a shopping cart full of groceries. But Mr. Bernanke did not have the shopper exclusively in mind. 'When inflation is already low and the fundamentals of the economy suddenly deteriorate,' he said in a speech that November, 'the central bank should act more pre-emptively and more aggressively than usual in cutting rates.' Some modicum of inflation is a must, he said. Let prices start to sag, and they could go right on sagging, as they had done in Japan for years. The solution: print money. The counterarguments for sitting tight (Are not falling prices a natural and, on balance, benign consequence of the incorporation of China and India into the global economy? By printing extra money to prop up the American inflation rate, wouldn't the Fed distort a whole host of prices and interest rates?) found no sympathy with him or Mr. Greenspan. So Mr. Bernanke, then one of seven Federal Reserve governors, sought to assure the world that United States monetary policy would stop deflation before it started. Yet here was a tricky assignment, for the post-1971 dollar is purely faith-based. Not since the Nixon years has a holder of dollars had the privilege of exchanging them for a statutory weight of gold. Rather, the dollar is a piece of paper, or electronic impulse, of no intrinsic value. It is legal tender whose value is ultimately determined by the confidence of the people who hold it. In the Greenspan era, the United States became an immense net debtor. A prudent American central banker, it might seem, would therefore be at pains to spare these overseas accumulators of greenbacks any unnecessary anxiety about inflation damaging the shelf life of their money. Not Mr. Bernanke. In that 2002 speech, he said that because the currency is intrinsically worthless, the government can (and in certain circumstances should) print up as much of it as it wants. And it should not be stymied in the work of restoring the rate of inflation to a decent minimum even if interest rates fell to zero. The Fed could, if necessary, buy up all the Treasury's debt, using dollars created specially for the purpose. Or, for a double-barrel stimulus, it could also buy up private debts (mortgages, car loans, bonds and the like). And as a last resort, the Fed could figuratively put in place an idea that the economist Milton Friedman once theorized for illustrative purposes: It could drop money out of helicopters. Approbation for Mr. Bernanke is not quite universal on Wall Street; after that speech some took to mockingly calling him 'Helicopter Ben.' Many were the blessings, real and imagined, of the Greenspan era: low inflation, falling interest rates in a growing economy, a pair of notably mild recessions and a succession of financial crises nipped in the bud by an activist Federal Reserve. Stock prices were bubbly (until the bubble burst), and Wall Street prospered. But debt grew and grew, and the gulf between what the United States consumes and what it produces - the trade deficit - widened to break all records. Now Mr. Bernanke stands to inherit what Mr. Greenspan and he, among others at the Fed, wrought. Certainly they have whipped deflation. But by pressing down interest rates to the floor, they have pushed housing prices to the sky. And they are the uneasy witnesses to an unscripted climb in the Consumer Price Index, which, in September, registered a 4.7 percent increase over last year. Don't worry, many counsel. The seemingly alarming inflation data are the statistical tracks of a boom in energy prices caused by the Iraq war and the Gulf Coast hurricanes. It will pass. But what if it doesn't? What if a new cycle of rising prices has already begun - as I happen to believe it has? Mr. Bernanke, as sure of himself as he is of the future, won't soon be changing the way the Fed operates. Rather, it will be the world's dollar holders who will change the way they operate. If America's creditors sense that inflation is robbing them of their wealth and that the Bernanke Fed is too slow to raise its interest rate, they will sell their dollars and dollar-denominated securities. Such an exodus would, among other things, tend to increase the costs of imported goods and drive up dollar-denominated interest rates. In other words, events would control the Fed. Since each of the world's major currencies is a scrap of paper of no intrinsic value, some of these disaffected dollar investors may buy gold. Mr. Bernanke doesn't talk much about that barbarous relic. What would he make of a flight from a rationally managed currency into an inert precious metal? I will guess that it would astonish him.

Subject: A must read!!!! From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 13:24:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message:

Subject: Re: A must read!!!! From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 17:55:55 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Please offer your views then as well.

Subject: Re: A must read!!!! From: Pete Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 11:49:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Grant is saying as was the case with the steady increases by the fed having little affect on longer term rates, so will any decreases in the fed rate (should Bernanke feel they are necessary) also have little affect on long term rates. Long term rates will be decided by the market and the market will be controlled by the faith our overseas creditors have in the dollar. My view: So we can get a recession with rising long term rates - this isn't really a relevation, because isn't that what we had in the 70's? The 70's recession and inflation (with double digit rates) had a lot to do with steeply rising energy costs - something we are seeing once again. But what is different this time - large current account and fiscal deficits, an overhang of asset booms (housing which has yet to unwind and stocks which I believe have yet to fully unwind), the largest personal debt level as a ratio to GDP, and the largest redistribution of wealth from 99% of the population to the upper 1% in US history. The personal debt held by the public is real and with the new bankruptcy laws it will be more difficult to shed. The wealth in personal 401K's and and appraised home valuations are on paper only and unrealized wealth until those assets are sold. While Robert Shiller and Paul Krugman have stated they believe there is a housing 'bubble' and it will begin to unwind soon, Ben Bernanke says, in a recent interview, that he believes there is no housing 'bubble' and if we see any slowdown, if at all, it will be mild. For Bernanke to say there is a housing bubble, he would have to admit that his economic philosophy, which he has held for years, is flawed. It would be admitting that the economic stimulus fostered by the fed did not find its way broadly into the economy but concentrated itself mostly into one sector. And if this sector should falter so does the economy and there is nothing he would be able to do about the unwinding of such a huge asset sector as a fed chairman. So for Bernanke, a bursting of a housing bubble is just something he can not accept. And the idea that the federal reserve would be powerless to stop such a bust is equally unacceptable to bernanke.

Subject: Oh Yes he CAN! From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 21:45:23 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: And if this sector should falter so does the economy and there is nothing he would be able to do about the unwinding of such a huge asset sector as a fed chairman. Pete you must not have had time to read that link I gave you earlier - he clearly uses Rothbards data to show that yes indeed there are things to be done. http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/ The Federal Reserve has many tools beyond adjusting the federal funds rate, which is not all that important beyond a political signal to the other countries. The Federal Reserve can and in the past has received all kinds of powers well beyond adjusting the short term rate. This is proven by Fed policy during the Depression and the S&L scandal. The power of the government over the banking system has really grown in the 70 years since the Depression. Here is a list of just some of the powers of the government as it relates to our banking and currency many are not aware of. The government can and has continued a policy of inflating the currency supply, a job for which the Federal Reserve was specifically invented to fulfill. The government can and has forced banks to loan money. They do it all the time. This is a subject which is very, very well documented. Loans to minorities is a good example. The government can and has taken the property rights away from the creditors of banks in order to keep insolvent banks from bankruptcy. This means a bank does not have to pay depositors or other creditors, but borrowers must still service their loans. The government can and has changed the accounting rules of banks to hide massive insolvency. RAP is a perfect example. The government can and has bailed out insolvent banks which are on the verge of bankruptcy, assuming the loans and obligations of the distressed bank, then liquidating or refinancing troubled loans. The government can and has taken the property rights away from creditors from borrowers and allowed borrowers to hold loans without servicing the debt. The government can and has made loans without any respect to the commercial interest rate in order to induce borrowing. This means that the government just arbitrarily chooses the interest rate of the loan. This happens every day. The government can and has the right to confiscate your property and pay you at a value it feels is fair. This power was just radically expanded. This is a fairly common action. The most radical confiscation was during the depression with the confiscation of gold, and the immediate revaluation of gold verses the US dollar. The government can and has the right to create any ability it seems necessary, limited only by sporadic voter uprisings. By the trend in inflation and government intervention, inflation and hyperinflation are not only in the future, but the only outcome that can happen at this point.

Subject: The problems From: Pete Weis To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 10:07:02 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: No one really knows if any of these so called powers can change the tide when truely large problems arise. Say, for instance, what can any of these powers do about the cost of energy? And how can the federal reserve control the buying habits of consumers whose 401k's and home valuations are tanking and who are paying higher prices at the pump and for home heating? And if consumers seriously begin to tighten their belts and companies must begin to lay off workers (take a look at US auto manufacturers) can you force US businesses to increase capital spending when they see their business slumping? And if the US government has to step in and do the spending how do you control the confidence of the rest of the world in the US dollar? What about Buffet's financial weapons of mass destruction, derivatives (mostly interest rate swaps) - could the fed act fast enough to save the day? The answers to all these questions will likely come within the next 5 years.

Subject: Re: The problems From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 15:11:08 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: ...No one really knows if any of these so called powers can change the tide when truely large problems arise. .... The FED is mandated to work on 2 policy goals - inflation and EMPLOYMENT. Some economists say more than 1 policy goal is truly putting too much on the plate. ...Say, for instance, what can any of these powers do about the cost of energy?..... Enact legislation and enforce it - make citizens use less since the free market hasn't. ... And how can the federal reserve control the buying habits of consumers whose 401k's and home valuations are tanking and who are paying higher prices at the pump and for home heating?.... Only give the citizens the things you want them to purchase - force major taxes or simply disallow them the ability to buy what you dont want them too. ... And if consumers seriously begin to tighten their belts and companies must begin to lay off workers (take a look at US auto manufacturers) can you force US businesses to increase capital spending when they see their business slumping? .... Yes - this has been done in the past as he shows with rothbards data - you force banks to lend - you force companies to borrow - you create 3 million new jobs in Homeland Security - the total of bush's employment gains eh? You create jobs through NO BID haliburton contracts - You create jobs through BRIDGE to nowhere - already many depression era programs being used. ..And if the US government has to step in and do the spending how do you control the confidence of the rest of the world in the US dollar?... AS richard benson said in an article posted last year - you sacrifice the dollar at the alter and don't worry about your neigbhors - you let your military worry about them. In the past Kublai Khan was able to get people to take his MONEY with only FEAR - they were AFRAID NOT to use his worthless money - that is all. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0471003786/ref=pd_sim_b_3/104-5858350-4321568?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance For example, the 'Great' Kublai Kahn printed money that was backed by his will only, centuries ago. And it worked; apparently fear of not accepting the Kahn's paper was enough to make it a working medium of exchange. Richard Benson posted article about this with US military and saudi boys calling it the greatest central bank heist in HISTORY. ... What about Buffet's financial weapons of mass destruction, derivatives (mostly interest rate swaps) - could the fed act fast enough to save the day? .... Always - you just break your promises - happens all the time. AS he says - you just change accounting rules to hide massive insolvency - RAP as an example in the past in the USA. Or you liquidate and burn creditors or depositors or borrowers- whatever suits the bankers best ineterest.

Subject: Re: A must read!!!! From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 27, 2005 at 20:05:23 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: A fine argument here. I understand your concern, and do not take it for granted, after all something is troubling stock investors this year. We are about at the end of October, but the S&P index is still negative. Coming up should be the strongest part of the year for stocks. We will find out.

Subject: Bernanke and the dollar From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 08:31:33 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Bernanke faces reputation as inflation 'dove' As Fed governor, former Princeton economist led battle against deflation By Martin Wolk Chief economics correspondent MSNBC Updated: 7:30 p.m. ET Oct. 25, 2005 With his unquestionably solid qualifications to serve as next chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke is likely to win easy Senate approval to take over the powerful post from Alan Greenspan early next year. But some market analysts say they fear the former Princeton University professor might be too soft on inflation and lacks the strong stomach needed to fight structural imbalances that threaten the nation’s long-term economic health. Bernanke’s image as an inflation “dove” stems in large part from his role as the central bank’s leading voice warning about the potential dangers of deflation when he was a Fed governor from 2002 until this year. In his landmark November 2002 speech on how to fight deflation, Bernanke said one possible tool would be a broad-based tax cut which he described as “essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous ‘helicopter drop’ of money.” That has led to an exaggerated image of a Bernanke so committed to growth at any cost that he would personally fly around dropping dollar bills from the sky if needed. “Of course it was taken out of context,” said Axel Merk, manager of the Merk Hard Currency Fund in Palo Alto, Calif. “He was just speculating. But you get the feeling that he is very willing to do whatever it takes to get the economy into whatever shape he wants it to be in.” Merk has been a regular critic of the chairman-designate in market commentaries over the past year, arguing that Bernanke could usher in an era of higher inflation, slower growth and a weakening dollar. Chip Hanlon, president of Delta Global Advisors, also worries about the implications of Bernanke’s 2002 speech, which included the observation that the government “has a technology, called a printing press,” that can be used to manufacture inflation if needed. Hanlon said Bernanke “should actively work to distance himself” from that statement. “That high-profile statement has not been forgotten, and it suggests that when in doubt he will lean toward the side of a loose, inflationary monetary policy,” Hanlon said in a commentary. “While equities markets may welcome such a ‘stimulative’ mindset, currency markets will likely treat Bernanke with great suspicion, particularly with regard to the U.S. dollar.” Indeed while the stock market rallied Monday on news of the nomination, the dollar fell and market interest rates rose on concern that Bernanke, currently chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, might be less effective than Greenspan at fighting inflation. Mary Ann Hurley, a bond trader at D.A. Davidson & Co., predicted Bernanke will begin working to counteract those perceptions at his Senate confirmation hearing, which is likely to be held before Thanksgiving. “Being a Fed chairman is radically different than being a Fed governor or a Council of Economic Advisers chairman or living in academia,” Hurley said. “And once he is faced with the reality of the markets hanging on every word he says and every action he does I’m not sure the label of being soft on inflation is going to stick.” Marvin Goodfriend, a professor of economics at the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon who worked with Bernanke at the Fed, said the dovish reputation is undeserved. “That deflation risk was not very likely, but should it have happened it would have been very costly,” Goodfriend said. “His public remarks during the period were called for, and I don’t think they say very much about whether he or anyone would be easier on inflation on the upside. ... My own feeling is he personally understands the risks of losing credibility from inflation on the upside very well.” Goodfriend also said that Bernanke’s idea for setting an explicit inflation target -- highlighted as an area of disagreement with Greenspan -- would be merely an extension of the Fed’s growing efforts to be transparent and open about its policy goals and intentions. “The Fed has been doing something very close to formal inflation targeting over the past 18 years or so. Making it a little more explicit would be a good thing,” he said. “In any case putting a priority on low inflation is the foundation for effective monetary policy, whatever the goals happen to be.” Goodfriend also said Bernanke, who has rarely offered his thoughts on political issues or fiscal policy, might try to narrow his portfolio to focus more specifically on monetary policy and issues where the Fed can make a difference. But that could be tough as he makes the transition into a position where Congress, financial markets and the public at large will seek his guidance on a wide range of economic issues. Bernanke's first test will begin within weeks, when members of the Senate Banking Committee could grill him on anything from rising budget deficits and future tax cuts to the nation’s trade deficit and energy policy. “I think that Bernanke will get an intense hearing before the committee, and he ought to get an intense hearing,” Sen. Paul Sarbanes of Maryland, the top Democrat on the banking panel, said Monday. Bernanke will face “a vigorous examination on both sides of the aisle,” agreed committee Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Ala. But he saw no obstacles to Senate confirmation.

Subject: A Rush to Commercial Property From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 08:06:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/realestate/26invest.html October 26, 2005 A Rush to Commercial Property By SANA SIWOLOP Like many part-time real estate investors, Fintan Murray, a Queens-based electrical contractor, used to buy only houses. He owns the single-family home in Whitestone where he lives as well as a two-family home in Maspeth and a three-family home in Woodside, which he rents out. But two years ago, Mr. Murray realized that soaring housing prices were making it more difficult for him to collect enough rent to pay back a mortgage on a two- or three-family home, so he began looking for a moderately priced apartment building instead. The hunt paid off in August when he bought a 16-unit brick rental property in Sunnyside for $1.8 million. He has already started to renovate it. Mr. Murray is not alone. Many real estate executives say they have recently seen a significant uptick in the number of first-time buyers who are entering the commercial market. Many buy small apartment buildings or retailing centers or mixed-use properties that combine apartments with a few stores, real estate professionals say. Some executives say the influx has been large enough to prompt them to try to track these types of buyers more diligently, as well as to reconsider their marketing efforts. 'I call it the democratization of commercial real estate - everyone wants to participate, and access to capital is wonderful,' said Gary Gabriel, executive director of the metropolitan area capital markets group at Cushman & Wakefield. At Massey Knakal Realty Services, Robert A. Knakal, the company's chairman, estimated that there are now six or seven times the number of first-time buyers in the New York area as there were five years ago. According to Mr. Knakal, of the 205 property sales that his company helped to close in the first half of this year, 32 involved either first-time commercial real estate buyers or investment companies that were providing some equity for the first time for the purchase of commercial real estate. 'In the past, we only did a couple of transactions a year with first-time buyers,' he said. Outside of New York, first-time buyers seem to be increasing as well. In a survey of some 300 institutional and regional commercial real estate investors and brokers, conducted in early September, the Real Estate Research Corporation, a Chicago-based company, found that two-thirds of the respondents said business from first-time buyers had increased since the beginning of the year, with rises in the range of 5 to 25 percent. These reports may actually underestimate the influx of newcomers, because rookie investors often keep a low profile, for fear that the lack of a track record might jeopardize a deal, according to many commercial real estate executives. 'It's often hard to tell who is a first-time buyer until we get into negotiations,' said Thomas A. Donovan, the executive managing director and partner for the Queens office of Massey Knakal. Real estate executives in some areas, like Brooklyn and Queens, say that first-time buyers there are buying properties primarily for their own use, rather than for investment purposes, because there is such a large gap in these markets between what buildings sell for and what they might command in rent. John Reinertsen, a broker in the Long Island City office of CB Richard Ellis, said first-time buyers were usually small businesses like food preparation companies, as well as contractors like electricians and plumbers, looking for light industrial properties that often combine office space with warehouse space. But other real estate executives, like Mr. Knakal, say they are also seeing a growing number of first-timers - often doctors, lawyers, architects, financial service professionals and retailers - who are buying purely for investment reasons, often as part of two- or three-person partnerships. Some first-time buyers are entering the market for entirely different reasons. In Phoenix, William Perry, a farmer for 31 years, said he had recently decided to take some of the proceeds from the sale of 3,000 acres of land and use them to buy a 12,500-square-foot strip shopping center. He said he was looking for a steadier source of income, as well as better returns than what he might get from the stock market. 'Farming really is a pretty cyclical business,' Mr. Perry said. He added that he had also recently closed on the purchase of a 79,000-square-foot office building in Scottsdale, Ariz., for $23.5 million. Office buildings usually require more expertise to manage properly, so most first-time commercial buyers are opting instead for small apartment buildings or store sites, real estate executives say. In the New York area, they say, the purchase prices are usually in the range of $10 million or less. Not all first-time buyers are being received warmly, some real estate executives say. In part this is because, they say, too many neophyte buyers make an offer on a property and then either change their minds or lower their offers as they discover potential problems with the purchase. 'We're getting tons of first-time buyers,' said Jon Sabrowski, an investments broker at GVA Williams of Connecticut, who added that he was generally 'very wary' of taking on first-time buyers, especially on deals that are worth $1.5 million or less. Some financing executives are also wary. 'Qualifying first-time buyers is far more of a challenge than finding them,' said Mr. Gabriel, the capital markets director at Cushman & Wakefield. He said one of his firm's biggest fears is that a first-time buyer might be unaware of capital improvement issues like drainage problems or the age and condition of a roof. Real estate brokers in the New York area say that some first-time buyers are looking for unrealistically high rates of return, as much as 8 to 10 percent annually; a more realistic expectation would be 4 to 8 percent, they say. Competition for properties in many parts of the country remains fierce. In Phoenix, Mr. Perry, paid for his shopping center purchase entirely with cash, a move that both helped him win the property over four other bidders and also allowed him to close on it within 40 days. By contrast, in Queens, the apartment building that Mr. Murray eventually bought initially attracted 30 bidders. Mr. Donovan, who was Mr. Murray's broker on the purchase, said the building's owner ultimately decided to go with his offer because he was 'very attentive to the deal,' and took the time to visit the building immediately and assemble a strong legal team. Still, like many first-time commercial buyers, Mr. Murray soon discovered that he had a lot to learn. Some of the apartments in his building are rent-controlled, for example, while others are rent-stabilized, and he soon expressed surprise at the many inspections, like those for boilers, that are now required for commercial buildings in the city. He plans to renovate the building over the next 10 years, an effort that will include overhauling its electrical system. 'To be honest, we're just figuring all this out right now,' he said.

Subject: Affordable housing From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 06:39:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Is Affordable Housing Becoming an Oxymoron? By HAL R. VARIAN The New York Times, Economic Scene, October 20, 2005 (Correction Appended) TO paraphrase Yogi Berra, it seems that houses are now so expensive that no one can afford to own one. Of course, economists know better. In the short run, the supply of housing in most areas is more or less fixed. Hence the price of housing is determined primarily by the demand side of the market - by how much people are willing to pay for housing. In the last few years, we have seen historically low mortgage rates, which feed directly into housing demand. In several locations, particularly on the East and West Coasts, where land-use restrictions make it difficult to increase the supply of housing, prices have been pushed up to unprecedented levels. Whether these low mortgage rates have created a housing price bubble has been a matter of debate. There is no universally accepted definition of a 'bubble' in economics, but the idea is that a significant part of the demand for housing is based on an expectation of future appreciation. The more prices go up, the more people want to buy so as to reap the gains from expected future price appreciation, pushing prices up even more. It is quite possible that there is some 'froth' in the market, to use Alan Greenspan's term, particularly on the coasts. But even when the froth subsides, housing will remain quite expensive in those areas. Can anything be done? Some municipalities have started subsidized housing programs that provide various types of assistance to new homeowners. Unfortunately, such programs just increase demand even more, pushing prices up. In fact, in an ideal market with a constant supply of housing, a 10 percent subsidy offered to a broad segment of the market would simply push housing prices up by 10 percent. The out-of-pocket, after-subsidy price would end up right where it started. If you really wanted to push housing prices down, you would increase taxes on housing. Analogous to the imposition of a subsidy, a 10 percent increase in property taxes would push housing prices down by 10 percent. Of course, the total cost of the housing (purchase price plus the present value of the taxes) would be unchanged, so this really does not solve the housing cost problem either. In California, tax policy has played a significant role in housing price dynamics. Proposition 13, passed in 1978, limited property tax increases to 2 percent a year for owner-occupied homes. But when the house is sold, the property tax assessment is based on the sale price. This means the new owner typically faces a significantly higher property tax bill than the old owner. Proposition 13 has been called a 'tax on moving.' Indeed it is, since a homeowner in California is much better off remodeling than moving. It is a lot cheaper to add a bedroom to a three-bedroom house than to buy a similar four-bedroom house because of the tax treatment of renovations as compared with new sales. For the same reason, empty-nesters have strong tax incentives to keep their houses, regardless of whether they need all that space. The result is that fewer houses come on the market than would otherwise be the case, pushing prices up even more for the limited stock of housing that is available. Of course, if you intend to move out of state, these considerations are not so relevant. In California, the best thing for empty-nesters to do is to sell their nests and migrate to Oregon. This seems to have become a pretty common practice, at least in some demographic groups. So what is the answer to high home prices? Basic economics tells us that for housing prices to fall we have to see a reduction in demand or an increase in the supply of housing. There is some hope on the demand side. As interest rates rise, we should see some moderation in demand; indeed, it appears that housing prices are flattening out in some areas. Ultimately, the only reliable way to make housing more affordable is to increase the supply. But a new house requires land zoned for housing. We cannot make more land, so we either have to use the land we have more intensively or we have to build houses farther from jobs. Both of these options are unattractive. In urban California, traffic has become increasingly congested, putting a limit on how far away from their jobs people can live. Land use restrictions are tight in many desirable residential areas, and political forces are aligned against relaxing these restrictions. Imagine someone who scrimps and saves to buy his dream house in an area zoned for one-acre lots. The last thing he wants to see is his neighbor's lot being subdivided to build two or three new houses. Not only would it affect his quality of life, but, even more important, it would also affect the value of his house. Zoning laws and land use restrictions are unpopular among those seeking less-costly housing since they push up the price. But by the same token, once a searcher becomes an owner, he often becomes a fervent supporter of such restrictions. As Pogo put it, 'We have met the enemy and he is us.' Hal R. Varian is a professor of business, economics and information management at the University of California, Berkeley. Correction: Oct. 26, 2005, Wednesday: The Economic Scene column in Business Day on Thursday, about the high cost of housing, referred incorrectly to a tax that might be one way of controlling prices. It is a 10 percent tax on housing values, which would theoretically push prices down 10 percent - not a 10 percent increase in property taxes (which are typically a small fraction of a house's value).

Subject: Re: Affordable housing From: Pete Weis To: Yann Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 09:00:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'Of course, economists know better. In the short run,.....the price of housing is determined primarily by the demand side of the market - by how much people are willing to pay for housing.' This is an interesting statement. Throughout the long history of housing markets, it turns out to be mostly untrue. But in the present housing market it is sadly very true. With the 'funny money' loans (as Bill Gross calls them) combined with loose lending standards, the price of housing is determined by merely how much people are willing to pay for a house. For more than 60 years following the 30's, the price of housing was determined by what people where willing to pay for it and limited to what they where sanely, ABLE to pay for it over the life of the loan, as determined by the lender. Today, it's all about keeping the commission checks coming in no matter what the cost down the road. This statement by Hal R. Varian, who presumes to speak for economists, would make Robert Shiller crindge.

Subject: Ways to Cut Employee Benefit Costs From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 06:16:07 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/26/business/26walmart.ready.html October 26, 2005 Wal-Mart Memo Suggests Ways to Cut Employee Benefit Costs By STEVEN GREENHOUSE and MICHAEL BARBARO An internal memo sent to Wal-Mart's board of directors proposes numerous ways to hold down spending on health care and other benefits while seeking to minimize damage to the retailer's reputation. Among the recommendations are hiring more part-time workers and discouraging unhealthy people from working at Wal-Mart. In the memorandum, M. Susan Chambers, Wal-Mart's executive vice president for benefits, also recommends reducing 401(k) contributions and wooing younger, and presumably healthier, workers by offering education benefits. The memo voices concern that workers with seven years' seniority earn more than workers with one year's seniority, but are no more productive. To discourage unhealthy job applicants, Ms. Chambers suggests that Wal-Mart arrange for 'all jobs to include some physical activity (e.g., all cashiers do some cart-gathering).' The memo acknowledged that Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, had to walk a fine line in restraining benefit costs because critics had attacked it for being stingy on wages and health coverage. Ms. Chambers acknowledged that 46 percent of the children of Wal-Mart's 1.33 million United States employees were uninsured or on Medicaid. Wal-Mart executives said the memo was part of an effort to rein in benefit costs, which to Wall Street's dismay have soared by 15 percent a year on average since 2002. Like much of corporate America, Wal-Mart has been squeezed by soaring health costs. The proposed plan, if approved, would save the company more than $1 billion a year by 2011. In an interview, Ms. Chambers said she was focusing not on cutting costs, but on serving employees better by giving them more choices on their benefits. 'We are investing in our benefits that will take even better care of our associates,' she said. 'Our benefit plan is known today as being generous.' Ms. Chambers also said that she made her recommendations after surveying employees about how they felt about the benefits plan. 'This is not about cutting,' she said. 'This is about redirecting savings to another part of their benefit plans.' One proposal would reduce the amount of time, from two years to one, that part-time employees would have to wait before qualifying for health insurance. Another would put health clinics in stores, in part to reduce expensive employee visits to emergency rooms. Wal-Mart's benefit costs jumped to $4.2 billion last year, from $2.8 billion three years earlier, causing concern within the company because benefits represented an increasing share of sales. Last year, Wal-Mart earned $10.5 billion on sales of $285 billion. A draft memo to Wal-Mart's board was obtained from Wal-Mart Watch, a nonprofit group, allied with labor unions, that asserts that Wal-Mart's pay and benefits are too low. Tracy Sefl, a spokeswoman for Wal-Mart Watch, said someone mailed the document anonymously to her group last month. When asked about the memo, Wal-Mart officials made available the updated copy that actually went to the board. Under fire because less than 45 percent of its workers receive company health insurance, Wal-Mart announced a new plan on Monday that seeks to increase participation by allowing some employees to pay just $11 a month in premiums. Some health experts praised the plan for making coverage more affordable, but others criticized it, noting that full-time Wal-Mart employees, who earn on average around $17,500 a year, could face out-of-pocket expenses of $2,500 a year or more. Eager to burnish Wal-Mart's image as it faces opposition in trying to expand into New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, Wal-Mart's chief executive, H. Lee Scott Jr., also announced on Monday a sweeping plan to conserve energy. He also said that Wal-Mart supported raising the minimum wage to help Wal-Mart's customers. The theme throughout the memo was how to slow the increase in benefit costs without giving more ammunition to critics who contend that Wal-Mart's wages and benefits are dragging down those of other American workers. Ms. Chambers proposed that employees pay more for their spouses' health insurance. She called for cutting 401(k) contributions to 3 percent of wages from 4 percent and cutting company-paid life insurance policies to $12,000 from the current level, equal to an employee's annual earnings. Life insurance, she said, was 'a high-satisfaction, low-importance benefit, which suggests an opportunity to trim the offering without substantial impact on associate satisfaction.' Wal-Mart refers to its employees as associates. Acknowledging that Wal-Mart has image problems, Ms. Chambers wrote: 'Wal-Mart's critics can easily exploit some aspects of our benefits offering to make their case; in other words, our critics are correct in some of their observations. Specifically, our coverage is expensive for low-income families, and Wal-Mart has a significant percentage of associates and their children on public assistance.' Her memo stated that 5 percent of Wal-Mart's workers were on Medicaid, compared with 4 percent for other national employers. She said that Wal-Mart spent $1.5 billion a year on health insurance, which amounts to $2,660 per insured worker. The memo, prepared with the help of McKinsey & Company, said the board was to consider the recommendations in November. But the memo said that three top Wal-Mart officials - its chief financial officer, its top human relations executive and its executive vice president for legal and corporate affairs - had 'received the recommendations enthusiastically.' Ms. Chambers's memo voiced concern that workers were staying with the company longer, pushing up wage costs, although she stopped short of calling for efforts to push out more senior workers. She wrote that 'the cost of an associate with seven years of tenure is almost 55 percent more than the cost of an associate with one year of tenure, yet there is no difference in his or her productivity. Moreover, because we pay an associate more in salary and benefits as his or her tenure increases, we are pricing that associate out of the labor market, increasing the likelihood that he or she will stay with Wal-Mart.' The memo noted that Wal-Mart workers 'are getting sicker than the national population, particularly in obesity-related diseases,' including diabetes and coronary artery disease. The memo said Wal-Mart workers tended to overuse emergency rooms and underuse prescriptions and doctor visits, perhaps from previous experience with Medicaid. The memo noted, 'The least healthy, least productive associates are more satisfied with their benefits than other segments and are interested in longer careers with Wal-Mart.' The memo proposed incorporating physical activity in all jobs and promoting health savings accounts. Such accounts are financed with pretax dollars and allow workers to divert their contributions into retirement savings if they are not all spent on health care. Health experts say these accounts will be more attractive to younger, healthier workers. 'It will be far easier to attract and retain a healthier work force than it will be to change behavior in an existing one,' the memo said. 'These moves would also dissuade unhealthy people from coming to work at Wal-Mart.' Ron Pollack, executive director of Families U.S.A., a health care consumer-advocacy group, criticized the memo for recommending that more workers move into health plans with high deductibles. 'Their people are paying a very substantial portion of their earnings out of pocket for health care,' he said. 'These plans will cause these workers and their families to defer or refrain from getting needed care.' The memo noted that 38 percent of Wal-Mart workers spent more than one-sixth of their Wal-Mart income on health care last year. By reducing the amount of time part-timers must work to qualify for health insurance, Wal-Mart is hoping to allay some of its critics. One proposal under consideration would offer new employees 'limited funding' so they could 'gain access to the private insurance market' after 30 days of employment while waiting to join Wal-Mart's plan. Such assistance, the memo stated, 'would give us a powerful set of messages to use in combating critics. (For instance, 'Wal-Mart offers associates access to health insurance after they've worked with us for just 30 days.')'

Subject: South Africa's AIDS Program From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 06:02:07 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/international/africa/25joburg.html?ex=1287892800&en=9625327f297147ba&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 25, 2005 U.N. Envoy Sharply Criticizes South Africa's AIDS Program By SHARON LaFRANIERE JOHANNESBURG - A new book by the United Nations' special envoy to Africa on AIDS brings to light an extraordinary breach between the organization and South Africa over the crisis, under which the government has effectively banned the envoy from carrying out his duties here for the past year. The book, written by Stephen Lewis, singles out South Africa's government and its president, Thabo Mbeki, for what it calls bewildering policies and a lackadaisical approach to treatment of the nation's millions of H.I.V.-positive citizens. Virtually every other nation in eastern and southern Africa 'is working harder at treatment than is South Africa with relatively fewer resources, and in most cases nowhere near the infrastructure or human capacity of South Africa,' Mr. Lewis says in the book, 'Race Against Time' (House of Anansi Press). Mr. Lewis, a Canadian who has served since 2001 as the special envoy to Africa on AIDS for the United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, wrote that 'every senior U.N. official, engaged directly or indirectly in the struggle against AIDS, to whom I have spoken about South Africa, is completely bewildered by the policies of President Mbeki.' He contended that his colleagues are 'incredulous' at how Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang has exaggerated the possible side effects of antiretroviral drugs and wrongly suggested that a diet of sweet potatoes and garlic can be as important as antiretrovirals in treating AIDS. Such public criticism is highly unusual for an official of Mr. Lewis's rank. His criticism largely mirrors that of civic groups and advocates for AIDS patients here. Those groups have long lambasted Mr. Mbeki and his health minister for what they call the government's halfhearted efforts to tackle the crisis head on. In response, a spokesman for South Africa's Health Ministry called Mr. Lewis a biased and uninformed judge of South Africa's response to the epidemic. 'No other country has increased treatment at the pace at which we are implementing our program,' the spokesman, Sibani Mngadi, said in a telephone interview. 'Soon we are going to have the highest number of people on treatment of anywhere' in the world. Mr. Lewis's rift with the South African government dates from a July 2004 international AIDS conference during which Ms. Tshabalala-Msimang publicly questioned the safety of a widely accepted drug treatment used to lower the risk of transmission of H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS, during pregnancy. Several international officials objected to her comments, including Mr. Lewis, who lamented South Africa's lack of progress in offering antiretroviral therapy to hundreds of thousands in need of treatment. Ms. Tshabalala-Msimang then publicly invited Mr. Lewis to visit South Africa 'and realize how little he knows about the South African health system.' But when he tried to take her up on the offer, Mr. Lewis said in a written response to questions, the minister fired back a missive 'bristling with (untenable) accusations, and said I could not come to South Africa until I had apologized to many individuals and groups, the president and herself included.' After consulting with his superiors at the United Nations, he said, he wrote back to the minister, telling her he had nothing to apologize for. Mr. Mngadi, the minister's spokesman, acknowledged in a telephone interview that Ms. Tshabalala-Msimang had demanded an apology. 'The whole approach of Stephen Lewis was to question whether we as a government had a right to take particular approaches, and in that situation it really requires an apology,' he said. South African officials have worked constructively with other United Nations representatives on AIDS, he said, 'and never experienced the kind of fallout that we have with Mr. Lewis.' Mr. Lewis's book is a compilation of lectures he delivered as a private citizen during the past year. In his last chapter, he commends South Africa for devoting an ample share of its budget to AIDS problems and for its efforts to prevent new infections. 'But on treatment, it is lagging unconscionably,' Mr. Lewis wrote. 'What troubles me, and troubles me deeply, is that the United Nations knows that something is terribly wrong, and yet we feel we cannot say anything about it.' About 6.3 million of South Africa's 47 million citizens are infected with the AIDS virus, up from an estimated 5.3 million in 2003. The World Health Organization estimated that about 837,000 South Africans urgently needed antiretroviral drugs by the end of 2004. Only about 78,000 of them now receive drugs through the government's programs, which began last year after a fusillade of criticism over delays. Health analysts say that perhaps 60,000 more South Africans are treated through private programs. That leaves South Africa far behind countries like Botswana and Uganda, which by the end of last year were already reaching at least half of those in need. The World Health Organization's goal is to have 375,000 South Africans in treatment by the end of this year. President Mbeki's decision in late 2003 to triple the AIDS budget and his government's efforts over two years to roll out free antiretroviral drugs has somewhat lowered the level of frustration. But many groups condemn his continuing silence on the epidemic and say Ms. Tshabalala-Msimang continues to sow confusion about the safety and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy, the only proven defense against AIDS. 'There are continually mixed messages, and there is almost increasing confusion in the mind of the average Joe,' said Rob Stewart, a health researcher helping the Health Ministry monitor treatment programs. The latest controversy erupted Wednesday with disclosures that two self-proclaimed specialists were invited to argue to the National Health Council that antiretroviral drugs are toxic and ineffective. Mark Sonderup, a spokesman for the South African Medical Association, said that his organization was 'flabbergasted' by the presentation, and that government officials were trying 'to torpedo their own programs.' His organization represents three-fourths of the nation's doctors. The ministry spokesman, Mr. Mngadi, insisted that the ministry was fully behind antiretroviral treatment. 'If we were denialists,' he asked, 'why would we invest so much money in treatment?'

Subject: Re: South Africa's AIDS Program From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 28, 2005 at 19:20:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hhmm A president with an obvious hidden agenda, makes stupid statements on policy that contravenes all international norms. Through a close net of cronies he tries to hide behind a series of mixed propaganda messages. A policy that has dire consequneces on the population, yet the majority of people continue to vote the idiot into power. Looks like the USA is not the only country that has a president Bush in power. The big difference is that President Bush's policy don't result in the unnecessary death of over a million of his own citizens.

Subject: Developing Lands From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 06:01:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/international/25brain.html?ex=1287892800&en=57d6c393199babf4&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 25, 2005 Developing Lands Hit Hardest by 'Brain Drain' By CELIA W. DUGGER Poor countries across Africa, Central America and the Caribbean are losing sometimes staggering portions of their college-educated workers to wealthy democracies, according to a World Bank study released yesterday. The study's findings document a troubling pattern of 'brain drain,' the flight of skilled middle-class workers who could help lift their countries out of poverty, some analysts say. And while the exact effects are still little understood, there is a growing sense among economists that such migration plays a crucial role in a country's development. The findings are based on an extensive survey of census and other data from the 30 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes most of the world's richest nations. The study found that from a quarter to almost half of the collegeeducated citizens of poor countries like Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda and El Salvador lived abroad in an O.E.C.D. country - a fraction that rises to more than 80 percent for Haiti and Jamaica. In contrast, less than 5 percent of the skilled citizens of the powerhouses of the developing world, like India, China, Indonesia and Brazil, live abroad in an O.E.C.D. country. These patterns suggest that an extensive flight of educated people is damaging many small to medium-size poor countries, while the largest developing countries are better able to weather relatively smaller losses of talent, and even benefit from them when their skilled workers return or invest in their native lands, said Frédéric Docquier, a lead researcher for the bank and an economist at the University of Leuven in Belgium. 'For a country with a third of its graduates missing, one has to worry,' said Alan Winters, director of the World Bank's development research group. The World Bank study, published yesterdayin a book, 'International Migration, Remittances and the Brain Drain,' also presents an analysis of the effect of the money that migrants from Guatemala, Mexico and the Philippines sent home, typically to their families. Those payments, known as remittances, helped reduce poverty in those countries and were a major source of foreign exchange, but the broader implications were complex. In Guatemala, for example, rural families receiving the money spent more on education and less on consumption. But in Mexico, children in migrant families actually got less education than those of nonmigrants, possibly because their families believed that they would eventually migrate to the United States for unskilled jobs that did not reward higher levels of learning. Some of the bank's data on brain drain have brought debate. Mark Rosenzweig, a Yale University economist, argues that the bank's measurement is inflated because it does not exclude immigrants who moved to a rich country as children, or who got their college educations there. Survey data on immigrants from Jamaica, for example, show that almost 4 of 10 came to the United States before the age of 20, he said. Bank researchers say they are now gathering such information, though it is not available for many countries, and acknowledge that it would be useful to know where migrants were educated. But they and some experts outside the bank say its latest report still offers the most comprehensive sense yet of the magnitude of the brain drain from poor countries, though that knowledge is admittedly rough and incomplete. Most experts agree that the exodus of skilled workers from poor countries is a symptom of deep economic, social and political problems in their homelands and can prove particularly crippling in much needed professions in health care and education. Jagdish Bhagwati, an economist at Columbia University who migrated from India in the late 1960's, said immigrants were often voting with their feet when they departed from countries that were badly run and economically dysfunctional. They get their government's attention by the act of leaving. 'If you stay you don't have any bargaining power at all,' he said. But some scholars are asking whether the brain drain may also fuel a vicious downward cycle of underdevelopment - and cost poor countries the feisty people with the spark and the ability to resist corruption and incompetent governance. Devesh Kapur and John McHale argue in their book, 'Give Us Your Best and Brightest,' published last week by the Center for Global Development, a research group in Washington, that the loss of institution builders - hospital managers, university department heads and political reformers, among others - can help trap countries in poverty. 'It's not just the loss of professionals,' said Mr. Kapur, an associate professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. 'It's also the loss of a middle class.' The question of what can be done to lessen the damage is vexing and gets into difficult questions of whether to limit the migration of skilled workers. The immigration policies of rich nations, including the United States, Canada, Britain and Australia, have sought to attract highly educated professionals, to bolster their competitiveness and to fill gaps in domestic skills. Many experts say they oppose efforts to curtail the movement of migrants, but they are debating possible ways to help poor countries cope. An idea that Professor Bhagwati first proposed in the 1970's - that developing countries should tax their expatriate workers - is getting a fresh look. Editors of the World Bank's book say policies may be needed to raise the incomes of professionals in their home countries. Others, including Professor Kapur and Professor McHale, who is an economist at the business school of Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, suggest that new ways be found to compensate the hardest-hit countries for their losses. They also say rich countries should consider setting up time-limited visas that would allow professionals to work for a few years before taking their expertise, and savings, back home. Professor Kapur likened a skilled immigrant's getting a visa to work in a rich country to winning a lottery, because the income gains from moving are so great. Whatever the approach, he said, the benefits to the few who are lucky enough to leave need to be weighed against the costs to their countrymen left behind.

Subject: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 07:51:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Despite US manufacturer's like Maytag and Catapillar, among others, recently stating that higher material costs and energy costs were eating into profits, Bernanke does not think that inflation is a problem. He seems to be very much a 'core' inflation guy. He must believe that higher energy and food costs are just a temporary thing? Or is he more worried about an overburdened consumer and the possibility of deflation? Reuters Inflation not picking up: Bernanke Tuesday October 25, 4:51 am ET LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures are likely to remain confined to the energy sector, and fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative, Federal Reserve chairman nominee Ben Bernanke said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday. The Times newspaper said the interview was conducted last week before President George W. Bush announced on Monday that Bernanke was his pick to succeed current Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. Bernanke said that there was so far little reason to fear that the sharp rise in energy prices would feed through into wider inflation. 'The evidence seems to be that it is primarily in energy and some raw materials and has not fed into broader inflation measures or expectations,' the Times quoted him as saying. 'My anticipation is that's the way it's going to stay.'

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Emma To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 08:34:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I agree completley, core inflation is no problem and overall inflation is no more than a near term problem. In any event, the Federal Reserve is in the midsts of a tightening cycle that is designed to insure that overall inflation will be no problem and the Fed will almost certainly be successful.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 08:38:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Emma. What about this(?): US businesses see rising prices, but growth steady Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:58 AM ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. businesses are finding it easier to pass along higher costs to consumers and plan to keep pushing prices up in the coming months, according to a survey of businesses released on Monday that also showed steady economic growth despite recent hurricanes. 'Our survey respondents are telling us they have been -- and will be -- raising prices more aggressively than in the past,' Eaton Corp. Chief Economist Jim Meil said, referring to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. The survey of 101 businesses found 40 percent had raised prices in the third quarter, compared to only 2 percent that had cut them. The resulting net rising index of 38 percent -- the difference between the two -- was the second highest in the survey's 24-year history. In addition, 46 percent of the firms said they expected to push prices up over the next three months, in contrast to only 4 percent who said they were likely to lower them. The current survey and one conducted after the close of the second quarter also showed businesses were having an easier time of making price increases stick than around the turn of the year. Despite powerful blows from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the survey found U.S. economic growth remained fairly stable, with a net rising index of demand growth moving up a couple notches to 45 percent from the last survey in July. U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters expect it expanded at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter. In a special question on the impact of the two hurricanes, a majority of firms said there was not impact on sales or margins. But of those who said there had been an impact on margins, those expecting the pressure to continue over the next 12 months exceeded those who saw a more positive outcome. The NABE survey found industry profit margins had widened in the July-September period and called the 37 percent share reporting rising margins 'unusually large.' While employment conditions remained healthy over the past quarter, the group said outlook for new hiring over the coming six months weakened significantly. 'The notable soft spot was in hiring plans,' said Meil. A net positive jobs reading of 19 in October was a shade below July and April readings of 20 but 'another high reading by historical standards,' it said. All sectors added jobs. However, the percentage of firms expected to add staff in the next six months dropped to 29 percent from 42 percent in July. The number planning to cut jobs by not filling vacant positions rose to 11 percent from 5 percent. Capital spending remained strong but the net number of businesses reporting rising outlays over those recording a decline dipped slightly to 31 from 34 in July. Some 48 percent of firms expect capital spending to increase over the next 12 months and only 10 percent see a decline, the report showed.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Poyetas To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 09:06:35 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Ummm, Can anyone tell me how this is not supposed to translate into inflation. I mean, from where i'm sitting, either corporate profits go down or consumer prices go up.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Pete Weis To: Poyetas Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 10:30:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: True. But if the stock markets were to begin a decline once again and, worse, the housing markets begin a decline than Bernanke's view is to worry less about inflation (and the dollar) and to keep up the money pumping. But there are those who believe you end up with a depression/recession anyway (no free lunch) - only it's a inflationary one instead of a deflationary one. Assets like stocks and housing decline anyway as consumers end up spending larger and large percentages of their paychecks on food, gas, home heating, health care, insurance, etc. and long term rates controlled more by the market than by the fed, rise steeply with higher inflation. Bernanke's view follows Milton Friedman's view that the 30's depression was not a result of a huge build up of debt and a large redistribution of wealth from the middle class to the tiny percentage at the top, but rather from mistakes by the central bankers of the 30's. He believes that the action taken by the fed after the '87 crash saved the day. But at that time, there wasn't nearly the personal debt that we have now. Furthermore we were still in the early stages of a high tech boom which was rapidly increasing wages and adding to employment. Long term interest rates were stable with still many years of lowering ahead. After the Japanese, European, and Asian markets were having trouble in the early to middle 90's much of the world's investment shifted to the US. So I don't see the parallels he tries to draw, since the differences are so large and so obvious. Here's an article by Bernanke which gives some incite into Bernanke's thinking: A Crash Course for Central Bankers By Ben S. Bernanke September/October 2000 Ben Bernanke, Bush's pick to lead the Fed, believes that a good central banker can make all the difference. In our pages, he argued that the 1929 stock market crash wouldn't have been so bad if the Fed hadn't bungled the job. Now it looks like he will get his chance to take the reins. Difference maker: Bernanke (right) believes central bankers hold the key to preventing painful economic crashes. A collapse in U.S. stock prices certainly would cause a lot of white knuckles on Wall Street. But what effect would it have on the broader U.S. economy? If Wall Street crashes, does Main Street follow? Not necessarily. Consider three famous episodes: the U.S. stock market crash of 1929, Japan’s crash of 1990-1991, and the U.S. crash of 1987. The 1929 U.S. crash and the sharp decline in Japanese stock prices were both followed by decade-long economic slumps in each country. (The Japanese depression, despite much whistling in the dark by the country’s policymakers, still lingers.) By contrast, the macroeconomic fallout from the 1987 tumble on Wall Street was minimal. Why the difference? A closer look reveals that the economic repercussions of a stock market crash depend less on the severity of the crash itself than on the response of economic policymakers, particularly central bankers. After the 1929 crash, the Federal Reserve mistakenly focused its policies on preserving the gold value of the dollar rather than on stabilizing the domestic economy. By raising interest rates to protect the dollar, policymakers contributed to soaring unemployment and severe price deflation. The U.S. central bank only compounded its mistake by failing to counter the collapse of the country’s banking system in the early 1930s; bank failures both intensified the monetary squeeze (since bank deposits were liquidated) and sparked a credit crunch that hurt consumers and small firms in particular. Without these policy blunders by the Federal Reserve, there is little reason to believe that the 1929 crash would have been followed by more than a moderate dip in U.S. economic activity. The downturn following the collapse of Japan’s so-called bubble economy of the 1980s was not as severe as the Great Depression. However, in some crucial aspects, Japan in the 1990s was a slow-motion replay of the U.S. experience 60 years earlier. After effectively precipitating the crash in stock and real estate prices through sharp increases in interest rates (in much the same way that the Fed triggered the crash of 1929), the Bank of Japan seemed in no hurry to ease monetary policy and did not cut rates significantly until 1994. As a result, prices in Japan have fallen about 1 percent annually since 1992. And much like U.S. officials during the 1930s, Japanese policymakers were unconscionably slow in tackling the severe banking crisis that impaired the economy’s ability to function normally. Central bankers got it right in the United States in 1987 when they avoided deflationary pressures as well as serious trouble in the banking system. In the days immediately following the October 19th crash, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—in office a mere two months—focused his efforts on maintaining financial stability. For instance, he persuaded banks to extend credit to struggling brokerage houses, thus ensuring that the stock exchanges and futures markets would continue operating normally. (U.S. banks, which unlike their Japanese counterparts do not own stock, were never in any serious danger from the crash.) Subsequently, the Fed’s attention shifted from financial to macroeconomic stability, with the central bank cutting interest rates to offset any deflationary effects of declining stock prices. Reassured by policymakers’ determination to protect the economy, the markets calmed and economic growth resumed with barely a blip. There’s no denying that a collapse in stock prices today would pose serious macroeconomic challenges for the United States. Consumer spending would slow, and the U.S. economy would become less of a magnet for foreign investors. Economic growth, which in any case has recently been at unsustainable levels, would decline somewhat. History proves, however, that a smart central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier side effects of a stock market collapse.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 11:15:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The Federal Reserve will easily prevent an increase in inflation, and if the Fed has to act to protect against a slowing of the economy that will be easily possible as well. Inflation beyond energy costs is not a problem that I can find, and energy costs should be far more contained from here. The task of the Fed is both to protect against inflation and to provide for as high an employment level as possible. That is just what Ben Bernanke will seek to do.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 12:55:18 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'energy costs should be far more contained from here.' Terri. How will this happen?

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Jennifer To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 16:29:09 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Energy cost increases are already being adjusted for, as businesses and households cut energy consumption in various ways. The adjustment lessens demand and prices will cease to climb. I am increasingly optimistic about a soft landing to economic growth as the Federal Reserve completes the tightening cycle. Besides, valuations in the stock market are increasingly attractive. I find little reason to worry about a downturn in stock prices at these valuations, even if there should be a short lived downturn.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Pete Weis To: Jennifer Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 17:54:35 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Jeremy Siegel in a recent article stated that after researching the peak oil vs there is plenty of oil issue he has come to the conclusion that the peak oil people are likely correct. He then turns this revelation into a good thing since he says, as you state, that this will get consumers to cut back. I wonder if he forgot how long it took consumers of the 70's to cut back and how high oil prices got and how high inflation got before things turned around. We and he should also remember that it wasn't just conservation that turned the corner on oil prices - it also was the Alaskan pipeline, Northsea oil, and much higher production in the Middle East that helped turn the tide. This time there will be no easy fix in the next 10-20 years. Siegel also comes down on the side of letting the high price of oil in a free market be the driving force for conservation without any government incentives or mandates. The government introduced fuel efficiency standards for auto manufactures in the late seventies through the 80's and provided incentives for upgrading home heating systems and adding additional insulation, etc. The Princeton geologist Kenneth Defeyes thinks oil prices will rise quickly and steeply as OPEC production falls faster than world demand. Much of this is based on the claims that OPEC members greatly overstated their proven reserves back in the 80's (see NYT's and BBC articles regarding this). Oil had reached into the $60 plus range before Katrina and is still there today and rising (along with natural gas). Every time the Saudi's say they will pump additional oil, the price goes up not down or at best holds at whatever level it's at. As to present stock valuations - the S&P is presently running at just under 20x trailing gaap earnings, when the historical average is around 15. Now when they were calculating the S&P PE through nearly all of its history, there were little to no stock options. Since the middle 90's stock options have soared and are still mostly not factored into expenses. So how can you compare today's earnings with pre-90's earnings? When they finally do expense stock options, how much will this reduce earnings? I haven't seen Buffet take advantage of many 'attractive valuations' yet. Throughout most of the 70's the S&P ran below 10x earnings - why will it be different this time?

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Poyetas To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 19:03:25 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I must say I agree with Pete completely, Changing consumer habits is a difficult thing to do, especially when your entire economic growth in the last decade was revolving around a consumer society. How quickly do you think this will change? I still remember an interview I saw with Clinton and he was right. I've referred to this before, the new growth sector in the American economy needs to be alternative energy sources. Create a market for it and you quickly see these problems fade away.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Terri To: Poyetas Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 20:24:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I am torn between Pete and you, and a sense that technology will be the answer. I must think more carefully, for technology may be too slow an answer for our habits.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Bill To: Terri Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 10:55:24 (EDT) Email Address: bilbo_41@yahoo.com Message: It will take at least ten years for the country to adapt new energy sources. If we wait for the marketplace to adjust we are for ten very harsh years. The Hirsch report from DOE details these issues and has thus far been buried. http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/the_hirsch_report.pdf

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 08:15:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I have no doubt that technology can and will solve the energy issue. But it won't happen in the next few years or probably the next ten. It will begin to happen and it could happen faster with government incentives. But we have 3 more years with this administration and Dick Cheney agrees with Jeremy Siegel - that the government has no part to play in this.

Subject: Re: Bernanke not worried by inflation From: Poyetas To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Wed, Oct 26, 2005 at 09:09:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Agreed, But just because of the political reality. I disagree with the concept of letting high energy prices dictate social behaviour. The government has a HUGE role to play in this. But since we cannot seperate private interests from policy, its impossible to make a recommendation. There's a million things the government can do, but won't. People who wait on the market to solve problems will be waiting a long time. People who expect the market to correct things are unimaginative sheep. Change comes from you. You will never get forward in life if you just agree with 'the market'!

Subject: Arctic Thaws From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 07:03:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/20/science/earth/20arctic.ready.html?ex=1287460800&en=c77ac003845eeb1c&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 20, 2005 Old Ways of Life Are Fading as the Arctic Thaws By STEVEN LEE MYERS, ANDREW C. REVKIN, SIMON ROMERO and CLIFFORD KRAUSS TIKSI, Russia - Freed by warming, waters once locked beneath ice are gnawing at coastal settlements around the Arctic Circle. In Bykovsky, a village of 457 on Russia's northeast coast, the shoreline is collapsing, creeping closer and closer to houses and tanks of heating oil, at a rate of 15 to 18 feet a year. Eventually, homes will be lost, and maybe all of Bykovsky, too, under ever-longer periods of assault by open water. 'It is eating up the land,' said Innokenty Koryakin, a member of the Evenk tribe and the captain of a fishing boat. 'You cannot do anything about it.' To the east, Fyodor V. Sellyakhov scours a barren island with 16 hired men. Mammoths lived here tens of thousands of years ago, and their carcasses eventually sank deep into sediment that is now offering up a trove of tusks and bones nearly as valuable as elephant ivory. Mr. Sellyakhov, a native Yakut, hauls the fossils to a warehouse here and sells them for $25 to $50 a pound. This summer he collected two tons, making him a wealthy man, for Tiksi. 'The sea washes down the coast every year,' he said. 'It is practically all ice - permafrost - and it is thawing.' For the four million people who live north of the Arctic Circle, in remote outposts and the improbable industrial centers built by Soviet decree, a changing climate presents new opportunities. But it also threatens their environment, their homes and, for those whose traditions rely on the ice-bound wilderness, the preservation of their culture. A push to develop the North, quickened by the melting of the Arctic seas, carries its own rewards and dangers for people in the region. The discovery of vast petroleum fields in the Barents and Kara Seas has raised fears of catastrophic accidents as ships loaded with oil and, soon, liquefied gas churn through the fisheries off Scandinavia, headed to markets in Europe and North America. Land that was untouched could be tainted by pollution as generators, smokestacks and large vehicles sprout to support the growing energy industry. But the thaw itself is already causing widespread anxiety. In Russia, 20 percent of which lies above the Arctic Circle, melting of the permafrost threatens the foundations of homes, factories, pipelines. While the primary causes are debated, the effect is an engineering nightmare no one anticipated when the towns were built, in Stalin's time. Coastal erosion is a problem in Alaska as well, forcing the United States to prepare to relocate several Inuit villages at a projected cost of $100 million or more for each one. Across the Arctic, indigenous tribes with traditions shaped by centuries of living in extremes of cold and ice are noticing changes in weather and wildlife. They are trying to adapt, but it can be confounding. Take the Inuit word for June, qiqsuqqaqtuq. It refers to snow conditions, a strong crust at night. Only those traits now appear in May. Shari Gearheard, a climate researcher from Harvard, recalled the appeal of an Inuit hunter, James Qillaq, for a new word at a recent meeting in Canada. One sentence stayed in her mind: 'June isn't really June any more.' Changing Traditions In Finnmark, Norway's northernmost province, the Arctic landscape unfolds in late winter as an endless snowy plateau, silent but for the cries of the reindeer and the occasional whine of a snowmobile. A changing Arctic is felt there, too. 'The reindeer are becoming unhappy,' said Issat Heandarat Eira, a 31-year-old reindeer herder and one of 80,000 Samis, or Laplanders, who live in the northern reaches of Scandinavia and Russia. Few countries rival Norway when it comes to protecting the environment and preserving indigenous customs. The state has lavished its oil wealth on the region, and Sami culture has enjoyed something of a renaissance. There is a Nordic Sami Institute, a Sami College, a state-sponsored film festival and a drive-in theater where moviegoers watch from snowmobiles. And yet no amount of government support can convince Mr. Eira that his livelihood, intractably entwined with the reindeer, is not about to change. Like a Texas cattleman, he keeps the size of his herd secret. But he said warmer temperatures in fall and spring were melting the top layers of snow, which then refreeze as ice, making it harder for his reindeer to dig through to the lichen they eat. He worries, too, about the encroachment of highways and industrial activity on his once isolated grazing lands. 'The people who are making the decisions, they are living in the south and they are living in towns,' said Mr. Eira, sitting inside his home made of reindeer hides. 'They don't mark the change of weather. It is only people who live in nature and get resources from nature who mark it.' Other Arctic cultures that rely on nature report similar disruptions. For 5,000 years, the Inuit have lived on the fringe of the Arctic Ocean, using sea ice as a highway, building material and hunting platform. In recent decades, their old ways have been fading under forced relocations, the erosion of language and lore and the lure of modern conveniences, steady jobs and a cash economy. Now the accelerating retreat of the sea ice is making it even harder to preserve their connections to 'country food' and tradition. In Canada, Inuit hunters report that an increasing number of polar bears look emaciated because the shrinking ice cover has curtailed their ability to fatten up on seals. In Alaska, whale hunters working in unusually open seas have seen walruses try to climb onto their white boats, mistaking them for ice floes. Hank Rogers, a 54-year-old Inuvialuit who helps patrol Canada's Far North, said the pelts of fox, marten and other game he trapped were thinning. As for the flesh of fish caught in coastal estuaries of the Yukon, 'they're too mushy,' he said. Slushy snow and weaker ice has made traveling by snowmobile impossible in places. 'The next generation coming up is not going to experience what we did,' he said. 'We can't pass the traditions on as our ancestors passed on to us.' Even seasoned hunters have been betrayed by the thaw, stepping in snow that should be covering ice but instead falling into water. And on Shingle Point, a sandy strip inhabited by Inuvialuit at the tip of the Yukon in Canada, Danny A. Gordon, 70, said it was troubling that fewer icebergs were reaching the bay. It has become windier, too, for reasons people here cannot explain. 'In the summer 40 years ago, we had lots of icebergs, and you could land your boat on them and climb on them even in summer,' Mr. Gordon said. 'Now in the winter they are tiny. The weather has changed. Everyone knows it. It's global warming.' Sinking Cities Vorkuta, a coal-mining city of 130,000, is crumbling. Many of the city's homes and factories were built not on hard rock, but on permafrost, a layer of perpetually frozen earth that covers 65 percent of Russia's territory. If the permafrost underneath melts, the ground turns to mush. 'Everything is falling apart,' said Lyubov I. Denisova, who lives in a cramped apartment on Lokomotivnaya Street. The ceiling has warped, the walls cracked, the window frames splintered. Some buildings have been declared unsafe and abandoned. Vorkuta lies on the edge of Russia's permafrost boundary, and some scientists predict that continued warming could advance that border hundreds of miles northward, weakening the earth beneath the vast infrastructure built during the days of the Soviet Union's industrialization of the Arctic. According to the Permafrost Institute in Yakutsk, the average temperature of the permafrost has already increased a degree or two. While most Arctic climate experts say the warming trend is driven by heat-trapping emissions and is unlikely to reverse, many scientists and officials in Russia predict the warming of the last 30 years will give way to a new period of cold. Vorkuta's mayor, Igor I. Shpektor, hews to that line. He said the damage in the city - 80 percent of all buildings show signs of it, one study found - resulted from faulty construction or maintenance, not a general thaw. Still, Mr. Shpektor acknowledged, 'the permafrost is unforgiving.' Any significant warming, said Anatoly A. Chumashov, the city's chief engineer, would leave officials like him scrambling to save the city. 'It is an example of how fragile it is and how careful we should be,' he said. But he added: 'If the permafrost melts, this city will not collapse overnight. There is time to adjust, but it requires very serious investments in labor and money.' Spills and Depredation 'One oil spill would be the end of us,' said Borge Iversen, a fisherman on the Lofoten Islands, a striking archipelago north of the Arctic Circle in the Norwegian Sea. As recently as 2000, Russian tankers were rarely spotted passing the jagged peaks and sheltered inlets, surrounded by seas with the world's largest stocks of cod and herring, as well as killer and sperm whales. So far, there has not been a major accident, but the ships appear more and more, a harbinger of Russia's expanding efforts to extract oil and, increasingly, gas in the Arctic. As much as a quarter of the world's remaining oil and gas resources are believed to exist in the Arctic. And as technology improves, oil prices rise and the seasonal ice cap retreats, countries like Norway and Russia are acting with startling speed. Oil shipments from the White Sea and the coast of the Barents Sea have soared, said Mikhail M. Kalenchenko, director of the World Wildlife Fund's branch in Murmansk, the Russian port. 'It was supposed to increase over the next 10 years, up to 20 million tons of oil,' he said. 'It's 20 million this year,' or 146 million barrels. At this rate, he said, 'we can expect up to 100 million tons, over 10 to 20 years, to be transported through our area.' Russia's history of environmental protection is a poor one. The Soviet drive for industrial development paid little heed to the natural spaces around its mines, factories and ports. Its disregard is evident in the poisoned wasteland around the nickel smelter in Monchegorsk, south of Murmansk, where hundreds of square miles of what was once forest is now almost entirely devoid of life. Western countries have paid millions to help Russia dismantle its aging fleet of nuclear submarines in the area and safely store the nuclear material aboard them, but Mr. Kalenchenko said far less attention had been paid to the environmental risks of expanding oil shipments in the same area, most in single-hull tankers. 'What has never happened before is a big accident in the high seas in the Artic,' he said. For the entire Barents region, he said, Russia has only two bases with the equipment necessary to fight an oil spill. 'In Norway, they have at least 50 bases of this kind,' he said. David Dickins, an engineer from San Diego who has spent 30 years studying how to clean up oil spills in icy waters, said that while the ice impeded the use of tools like booms that hold a slick in place, the ice also naturally contained the oil, giving response teams more time to act before environmental damage occurred. 'People ought not paint the Arctic in some sort of raving sense where a spill is somehow going to be catastrophic,' he said. But he added: 'A spill is always serious. In the Arctic it will naturally take longer to clean up because there is less wave action, and breakdown is slower in colder temperatures.' That is what worries Mr. Iversen, who sails each morning from the village of Ballstad, into the coastal waters around the Lofoten Islands. The village's history, islanders say, reaches back to the Vikings, and fishing is central to the region's social and economic life. 'We've fished these waters for centuries, and while it's a hard life, we've survived in doing so,' he said. Although the fishing industry accounts for less than 1 percent of Norway's gross domestic product, as against the nearly 18 percent brought in by oil and gas, the fisheries are Norway's second-largest earner of foreign exchange and are viewed as a more sustainable resource. 'We need a policy for the Arctic that considers the next 100 years, not just the next 10 years,' Mr. Iversen said. Such sentiment goes far in Norway, where fishing is still part of the oil-rich nation's soul. On Oct. 13, a new leftist coalition upheld a ban on drilling in the waters around the Lofoten Islands until 2009, while allowing exploration to proceed further north in the Barents Sea. As for the tanker traffic, Oslo is looking at other ways of advancing its concerns. Norway and the seven other Arctic nations have started to discuss ways to protect the environment they share in a forum called the Arctic Council, established nine years ago. In 2002, the council issued guidelines for offshore oil drilling, calling for drilling projects to be preceded by studies on environmental effects and the availability of cleanup equipment. The guidelines come with no enforcement powers, but several experts say they think they will have some effect, particularly because Russia is preparing for entry into the World Trade Organization and seeking closer ties with the European Union. A Less Wild Future One day last summer, the 1,200 residents of Pangnirtung, a windswept outpost on a fjord in Nunavut, Canada's Inuit-administered Arctic territory, were startled to see a 400-foot European cruise ship drop anchor unannounced and send several hundred tourists ashore in small boats. While small ships have stopped in the Canadian Arctic, visits from large liners are increasing as interest grows in the opening Northwest Passage, said Maureen Bundgaard, chief executive of Nunavut Tourism, a trade association. Ms. Bundgaard has been training villagers how to stage cultural shows, conduct day tours and sell crafts and traditional fare - without being overrun. 'We're not prepared to deal with the huge ships, emotionally or in other ways,' she said. Inuit leaders say they are trying to balance tradition with the inevitable changes that are sweeping their lands. The Inuit Circumpolar Conference, which represents 155,000 Inuit scattered across Canada, Greenland, Russia and the United States, has enlisted lawyers and movie stars like Jake Gyllenhaal and Salma Hayek to draw attention to its imperiled traditions. The group's leaders hope to submit a petition to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights in December, claiming that the United States, by rejecting a treaty requiring other industrialized countries to cut emissions linked to warming, is willfully threatening the Inuit's right to exist. The commission, an investigative arm of the Organization of American States, has no enforcement powers. But legal analysts say that a declaration that the United States has violated the Inuit's rights could create the foundation for a lawsuit either against the United States in international court or American companies in federal courts. But some Inuit question the wisdom of the petition. They ask, how can they push countries to stem global warming when the Inuit's own prosperity in places like Nunavut is tied to revenues from oil and gas, which are sources of greenhouse gases when burned? Sheila Watt-Cloutier, the elected chairwoman of the group, said the goal was not to stop development but to make sure that native cultures had a say in how development was carried out. 'It's how we do the business that's more important,' she said. 'There are more environmentally friendly ways in which we can do development and still live a certain way, with a way of life and business that can balance both.' While it is the people of the Arctic who will feel the melt and the rush for development most directly, the world, too, will have to give up something - its treasured notion of the Far North as a place of wilderness, simplicity and unspoiled cultures. In a report on Arctic development, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that 15 percent of the region's lands were affected in 2001 by mining, oil and gas exploration, ports or other industrial incursions. But that figure is likely to reach 80 percent in 2050, it said. The Arctic, then, is probably making the same transition that swept the coastal plains of the North Slope of Alaska starting 38 years ago when the first oil was struck in Prudhoe Bay, said Charles Wohlforth, an Alaskan and author of 'The Whale and the Supercomputer,' describing Arctic climate change. Since then, a lacework of pipelines and wells has steadily spread west and east from that central field, ending the sweeping sense of emptiness that defined the Arctic landscape through the ages. 'Even if you support oil development and think it makes sense, there's a point at which it becomes West Texas or the Gulf of Mexico and is not really the Arctic any more,' Mr. Wohlforth said.

Subject: As Polar Ice Turns to Water From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 07:02:44 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/10/science/10arctic.html?ex=1286596800&en=9f4059694b711260&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 10, 2005 As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams of Treasure Abound By CLIFFORD KRAUSS, STEVEN LEE MYERS, ANDREW C. REVKIN and SIMON ROMERO CHURCHILL, Manitoba - It seems harsh to say that bad news for polar bears is good for Pat Broe. Mr. Broe, a Denver entrepreneur, is no more to blame than anyone else for a meltdown at the top of the world that threatens Arctic mammals and ancient traditions and lends credibility to dark visions of global warming. Still, the newest study of the Arctic ice cap - finding that it faded this summer to its smallest size ever recorded - is beginning to make Mr. Broe look like a visionary for buying this derelict Hudson Bay port from the Canadian government in 1997. Especially at the price he paid: about $7. By Mr. Broe's calculations, Churchill could bring in as much as $100 million a year as a port on Arctic shipping lanes shorter by thousands of miles than routes to the south, and traffic would only increase as the retreat of ice in the region clears the way for a longer shipping season. With major companies and nations large and small adopting similar logic, the Arctic is undergoing nothing less than a great rush for virgin territory and natural resources worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Even before the polar ice began shrinking more each summer, countries were pushing into the frigid Barents Sea, lured by undersea oil and gas fields and emboldened by advances in technology. But now, as thinning ice stands to simplify construction of drilling rigs, exploration is likely to move even farther north. Last year, scientists found tantalizing hints of oil in seabed samples just 200 miles from the North Pole. All told, one quarter of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources lies in the Arctic, according to the United States Geological Survey. The polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries. 'It's the positive side of global warming, if there is a positive side,' said Ron Lemieux, the transportation minister of Manitoba, whose provincial government is investing millions in Churchill. If the melting continues, as many Arctic experts expect, the mass of floating ice that has crowned the planet for millions of years may largely disappear for entire summers this century. Instead of the white wilderness that killed explorers and defeated navigators for centuries, the world would have a blue pole on top, a seasonally open sea nearly five times the size of the Mediterranean. But if the Arctic is no longer a frozen backyard, the fences matter. For now it is not clear where those fences are. Under a treaty called the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, territory is determined by how far a nation's continental shelf extends into the sea. Under the treaty, countries have limited time after ratifying it to map the sea floor and make claims. In 2001, Russia made the first move, staking out virtually half the Arctic Ocean, including the North Pole. But after challenges by other nations, including the United States, Russia sought to bolster its claim by sending a research ship north to gather more geographical data. On Aug. 29, it reached the pole without the help of an icebreaker - the first ship ever to do so. The United States, an Arctic nation itself because of Alaska, could also try to expand its territory. But several senators who oppose any possible infringement on American sovereignty have repeatedly blocked ratification of the treaty. Indeed, not everyone agrees that warming of the Arctic merits concern. No one knows what share of the recent thawing can be attributed to natural cycles and how much to heat-trapping pollution linked to recent global warming, and some scientists and government officials, particularly in Russia, are dismissive of assertions that a permanent change is at hand. 'We are not going to have apple trees growing in Vorkuta,' said the mayor of that coal-mining city, Igor L. Shpektor, who is also the president of Russia's union of Arctic cities and towns. But the current thaw is already real enough for the four million people within the Arctic Circle, including about 150,000 Inuit. 'As long as it's ice,' said Sheila Watt-Cloutier, leader of a transnational Inuit group, 'nobody cares except us, because we hunt and fish and travel on that ice. However, the minute it starts to thaw and becomes water, then the whole world is interested.' Increasingly, big corporations, the eight countries with Arctic footholds and other nations farther south are betting on the possibility of a great transformation. Energy-hungry China has set up a research station on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen and twice deployed its icebreaker Snow Dragon, which normally works in Antarctica, to northern waters to conduct climate research. Interest in Arctic-hardy vessels has picked up so much that in January, Aker Finnyards, a giant shipbuilder based in Helsinki, created a subsidiary just to develop ice-hardened ships. Its new double-ended tanker slips smoothly through open water bow first but can spin around and use an icebreakerlike stern to smash through heavy floes. A Finnish energy company bought two for about $90 million apiece, and after buying one Russia licensed the design and is building two more. In January, the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research held a closed two-day meeting to hear from experts on the implications of a warming, opening Arctic. 'There are likely to be a number of foreign-policy issues that must be addressed by the United States and other nations' if the climate trends persist, said a summary of the meeting. 'These issues include the availability and potential for exploitation of energy, fisheries and other resources; access to new sea routes; new claims under Law of the Sea; national security; and others.' A look at a map of the globe with the North Pole at its center explains why a new frontier matters. Some countries that one might think of as being half a world part appear as startlingly close neighbors, and relatively speaking, they are. In the days of empire, Rudyard Kipling called jockeying among world powers in Central Asia the Great Game. Christopher Weafer, an energy analyst with Alfa Bank in Moscow, says this new Arctic rush is 'the Great Game in a cold climate.' The Petroleum Rush To understand the practical terms of this new competition for territory, opportunity and resources, a good place to begin is Hammerfest, Norway, one of the northernmost towns in the world and one of 12 Arctic settlements visited over six months by correspondents of The New York Times preparing this series of articles. Hammerfest, once an austerely beautiful fishing village burned to the ground by the Nazis in World War II, is starting to swell with young people from other parts of Norway, Finland, Russia and Asia, as well as with highly trained technical workers from Europe and North America. They are drawn by Snohvit (in English, Snow White), a mammoth complex being built to receive natural gas piped from the Barents Sea and liquefy the gas for shipping. The Norwegian government, which controls Snohvit in part through its majority ownership of the energy company Statoil, is desperate for Snohvit to be a success and put the country in the forefront of Arctic energy exploration. Being first, however, has had its challenges in the severe operating environment of the High North, as Arctic areas are called in Norway. Overruns have put the price of Snohvit at $8.8 billion, almost 50 percent above its original estimate. The project has a firm backer in John Doyle Ong, the blunt United States ambassador in Oslo. Snohvit is scheduled to start sending liquefied natural gas to the Cove Point port in Maryland in 2007, just as American imports of liquefied gas from competing sources in the Middle East and Africa are set to rise rapidly. Importing natural gas from a stable country like Norway - already the world's third-largest oil exporter, after Saudi Arabia and Russia - is a rare option these days. 'Norway's importance to the United States in terms of our national energy policy is increasing with every passing year,' Mr. Ong said. But the United States' interests go beyond that - too far beyond for many in Norway. In September, the opening of frontier areas in the Barents and Norwegian Seas emerged as a central issue in elections that brought a leftist coalition to power, with some coalition members favoring a ban on Arctic oil and gas exploration in environmentally sensitive areas. And besides supporting Snohvit, Mr. Ong, a former energy executive, has stepped into disputes between Norway and Russia over a large gray zone in the Barents. His insistence that Arctic-related matters be 'trilateral' rather than bilateral is viewed as belligerent by some Norwegians. In private, Norwegian officials welcome the heft of the United States in its negotiations with Russia. Norway is eager to resolve the territorial dispute so that some order, and Norwegian drilling expertise and environmental standards, can be imposed on Arctic exploration. Because as large as Snohvit is, it is dwarfed by a far bigger gas field to the east in Russian waters. That field, called Shtokman, is being developed by Gazprom, Russia's gas behemoth. In September, Gazprom selected five companies - Statoil and Norsk Hydro from Norway, Total from France and Chevron and ConocoPhillips - as finalists in a search for partners to develop Shtokman, in the Barents Sea, 350 miles north of Russia's Kola Peninsula. The development costs are estimated at $15 billion to $20 billion. The field is reported to hold more than double all of Canada's gas reserves. 'They're going to find more of them,' Mr. Weafer, the Moscow-based energy analyst, said of Arctic gas deposits. 'It's the next energy frontier.' And while natural gas is certainly valued, the prize that is generating the biggest interest is oil. Virtually every large international energy company is studying how eventually to win permission from Norway and Russia to explore in the Barents, and the Norwegian Polar Institute has been contacted repeatedly by oil companies to explore the feasibility of drilling in the icier waters north of Spitsbergen. Jan-Gunnar Winther, director of the institute, said the seasonal melting of the polar cap might allow access to more petroleum deposits but also create more challenges. 'A warmer climate in the north would mean more icebergs, rather than less,' he said. 'There will be obstacles in getting to the petroleum, but if oil prices stay high there will be enticements as well.' A push into the Barents Sea could help redraw the politics of energy allegiances, and gas in particular puts Russia in a strong position. 'It has a good chance of becoming a more effective counterbalance to OPEC,' Mr. Weafer said. As for Norway, the warming world gives it the chance to seek influence far beyond its size. Energy-hungry countries that might have written off the Arctic not long ago are showing considerable interest in Norway's opening of the Barents; one visitor to Oslo in September was India's oil minister, seeking a role in exploration. And if a route farther north opens just four or five months of the year, Norway could even become a major supplier of oil and gas to China, said Sverre Lodgaard, director of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs. Norway is trying to position itself as 'a dwarf among giants,' Mayor Alf Jakobsen of Hammerfest said. 'We're attracting young people to Hammerfest instead of sending them away, for the first time in years. The opportunity to become a springboard into the Arctic is upon us.' Fisheries Head North Charlie Lean easily recalls when he realized that big changes were sweeping the fish stocks along the northern shores of Alaska. Just over 10 years ago, when Mr. Lean was the state's fisheries manager for the northwest region, a call came in from the tiny Eskimo outpost of Kivalina, on the Chukchi Sea 150 miles northeast of the Bering Strait. A village elder was reporting 'a massive fish kill' in the Wulik River, Mr. Lean said. Everyone assumed it was from some toxic spill upriver at the giant Red Dog zinc mine. 'I rounded up a plane and blasted off and flew up there,' he said. 'Flying overhead I could see right away it was the end of a pink salmon run. They were dying of natural causes as they always do once they spawn.' The elders had never seen a run of this salmon species. But they have shown up every year since. The colonization of new rivers by pink salmon is just one of many changes in fish and crab stocks that appear linked to retreating sea ice and warming waters in the Chukchi Sea and, farther south, the Bering Sea. The changes are important because the Bering is rich with pollock, salmon, halibut and crab, already yielding nearly half of America's seafood catch and a third of Russia's. Recent studies have projected that in a few decades there could be lucrative fishing grounds in waters that were largely untouched throughout human history. In a 2002 report for the Navy on climate change and the Arctic Ocean, the Arctic Research Commission, a panel appointed by the president, concluded that species were moving north through the Bering Strait. 'Climate warming is likely to bring extensive fishing activity to the Arctic, particularly in the Barents Sea and Beaufort-Chukchi region where commercial operations have been minimal in the past,' the report said. 'In addition, Bering Sea fishing opportunities will increase as sea ice cover begins later and ends sooner in the year.' But problems could emerge, as well, as stocks shift from the waters of one country to those of another. Snow crabs, for example, appear to be moving away from Alaska, north and west toward Russia, as the sea ice retreats. They depend on nutrients that sink to the bottom from algae growing under the ice. The valuable fishery could eventually move entirely out of American waters, some federal fisheries scientists said. The fishing industry, a business where surviving one year to the next is the main worry, has largely not taken notice of the changes, although American crab boats are finding they have to steam farther and farther to haul in a decent catch. 'If the crabs move over into the Russian zone,' said Glenn Reed, the president of the Pacific Seafood Processors Association in Seattle, 'there's not much to be done about that except hope they come back someday.' Who Governs What 'Stalin once just drew a line from Murmansk to the North Pole and then to Chukchi and said, 'U.S.S.R. Polar Region' - and nobody worried about it,' said Artur N. Chilingarov, an Arctic explorer and deputy speaker of Russia's lower house of Parliament. Now, instead of Stalin, the lines will be drawn by an international commission and the geography of the seabed itself. That means that the Arctic land grab could be decided in part inside a lab at the University of New Hampshire in Durham. There, at the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping, scientists are studying sonar scans of the seabed from a 2002 expedition on a United States Coast Guard icebreaker in waters north of Barrow, Alaska. In the lab, Larry Mayer, the center's director, gave a reporter a joystick-driven virtual tour of the seabed two miles beneath the ice. The ocean appeared on a wall-size screen as a basin with ridges and valleys dropping into the depths around the edges, representing oceanographers' best guess at the topography before the expedition. Then Dr. Mayer pushed a button, adding depth data from the survey, which used new multibeam sonar. Suddenly a giant underwater mountain sprouted up 10,000 feet where the old chart had shown only a vague bump. One of the old depth-sounding voyages had passed within a few miles but missed it. 'That's the state of our knowledge,' said Dr. Mayer, who named the undersea mountain Healy, after the icebreaker. Such physical features matter enormously to nations seeking to expand their undersea territory under a murky clause, Article 76, in the Law of the Sea. With only fragments of the Arctic ever surveyed, by icebreaker or nuclear submarine, various countries are mounting new mapping expeditions to claim the most territory they can. The exclusive economic zone controlled by a country generally extends 230 miles from its shores. But under Article 76, that zone can expand if a nation can convince other parties to the treaty that there is a 'natural prolongation' of its continental shelf beyond that limit. The shelf is the relatively shallow extension of a landmass to the point where the bottom drops into the oceanic abyss. But in many places, the drop-off is a gentle slope or is connected to long-submerged ridges that, if precisely mapped, might add thousands of square miles to a country's exploitable seabed. Claims of expanded territory are being pursued the world over, but the Arctic Ocean is where experts foresee the most conflict. Only there do the boundaries of five nations - Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States - converge, the way sections of an orange meet at the stem. (The three other Arctic nations, Iceland, Sweden and Finland, do not have coasts on the ocean.) 'The area does get to be a bit crowded,' said Peter Croker, chairman of the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, which assesses claims. It is composed of experts appointed by countries that ratified the treaty. Disputes over overlapping claims must be worked out by the countries involved, but the commission weighs control over areas that would otherwise remain international waters. Countries that ratified the treaty before May 13, 1999, have until May 13, 2009, to make claims. Other countries have 10 years from their date of ratification. Russia adopted the treaty in 1997, and four years later laid claim to nearly half the Arctic Ocean. The commission's technical panel rejected the claim, and now Russia hopes the recent voyage of its research ship Akademik Fyodorov to the North Pole will yield mapping data in its favor. In June, Denmark and Canada announced that they would conduct a joint surveying project of uncharted parts of the Arctic Ocean near their coasts. Denmark is particularly interested in proving that a 1,000-mile undersea mountain range, the Lomonosov Ridge, is linked geologically to Greenland, which is semiautonomous Danish territory. If it finds such a link, Denmark could make a case that the North Pole belongs to the Danes, Danish officials have said. Canada could also claim a huge area, and then face challenges from the other Arctic nations. The United States could petition for a swath of Arctic seabed larger than California, according to rough estimates by Dr. Mayer and other scientists. But while the government financed Dr. Mayer's survey, it has not made a definitive move toward staking a claim. American ratification of the Law of the Sea treaty has repeatedly been blocked by a small group of Republican senators, now led by Senator James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma. They say, among other things, that the treaty would infringe on American sovereignty. In a Senate hearing last year, Mr. Inhofe said, 'I'm very troubled about implications of this convention on our national security.' The deadlock has persisted even though the Bush administration in 2002 described ratification of the Law of the Sea and four other treaties as an 'urgent need.' Many proponents of the treaty, including the Pentagon, the American Petroleum Institute and Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, say this paralysis leaves the United States on the sidelines while others carve up an ocean. 'We need to be in the game, at the table, talking about fisheries management, mineral extraction, freedom of navigation,' said Adm. James D. Watkins, a retired chief of naval operations who is chairman of the United States Commission on Ocean Policy. Mr. McCain said, 'I think what it would require really is a hard push from the president.' Treaty or no, territorial disputes ultimately imply questions about a country's ability to defend its interests. Here, too, the United States has shown less urgency while Canada has acted more aggressively to ensure sovereignty over a fast-changing domain it had long neglected. Already, oil tanker traffic is rising and fishing boats are going farther north. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is concerned that melting seaways could make it easier for narcotics traffickers to reach indigenous communities, and for organized crime to exploit the growing diamond trade. And the United States, which disputes Canada's control over parts of the petroleum-rich Beaufort Sea, has in the past sent vessels unannounced through other Arctic waters that Canada claims. Three years ago Canada began patrolling the most remote Arctic reaches with army rangers, a mostly Eskimo force of 1,500 irregulars. Next year the military plans to launch Radarsat 2, a satellite system that will allow surveillance of the Arctic and sea approaches as far as 1,000 miles offshore. The military is also buying three reinforced tankers to supply ships patrolling the north. The fleet of Twin Otters, the primary surveillance and transport planes in the north since the 1960's, will be replaced with bigger, faster transports. And senior officials are touring places that offer little but symbolic value. Canada's aim is not only to tighten control of its territory, but also to establish a strong posture in future talks over the Northwest Passage, the long-sought shortcut from Europe to Asia across the top of Canada. Bill Graham, the defense minister, said, 'I don't see the Northwest Passage as something for another 20 years, but at the rate of present global warming, we know that it will be within 20 years and we have to get ahead now.' This summer he made a point of visiting Hans Island, a two-mile-long rock claimed by both Canada and Denmark. The Pentagon has focused elsewhere. The Navy spent up to $25 million a year on polar research in the 1990's, and in April 2001 produced a report warning that weapons and ships were not designed with arctic conditions in mind, and that charts, navigational systems and support networks were inadequate for the north. 'Safe navigation and precision weapons delivery capability,' the report said, 'may be significantly constrained unless these shortfalls are addressed.' But in the budget shake-up after the Sept. 11 attacks, the Navy severely reduced spending for polar research. At the same time, America's three large icebreakers are deteriorating. One of them, the Polar Sea, is inoperable and docked in Seattle, where it is being readied for a year or two of repairs. No replacements are planned. Three Shipping Passages Churchill, Manitoba, and Murmansk, on the Russian Arctic coast, are unlikely sister cities. Churchill is not a city at all, but a barren outpost of 1,100 people on the western shore of Hudson Bay. It survives on the 15,000 tourists who visit each year for the chance to see and photograph migrating polar bears. Murmansk, by contrast, has a population of 325,000, making it the biggest city inside the Arctic Circle. Founded in 1916 as Romanov-on-Murman, just before the revolution wiped out the Romanovs, it is a place of stolidly attractive old buildings, newer high-rises, wide boulevards and green parks. Though it lies north of Churchill, which is ice-bound up to eight months a year, Murmansk's harbor is kept free of ice by the Gulf Stream, the ideal base for the Russian Arctic fleet and commercial shipping. One thing the communities have in common, however, is hard times. Churchill, never much to begin with, lost most of its population when Canada finished phasing out the Fort Churchill military base in the 1980's. Murmansk, like much of the rest of Russia, lost economic ground with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the more relevant connection is an accident of geography and a shared dream: that the thawing of the Arctic Ocean would help create the so-called Arctic Bridge, a shipping route with their ports as the logical terminals. The advantage of maritime shortcuts across the top of the world can be startling. For example, shipments from Murmansk to midcontinental North America by the well-worn route through the St. Lawrence Seaway and Great Lakes to Thunder Bay, in western Ontario, typically take 17 days. The voyage from Murmansk to Churchill is only 8 days under good conditions, and from Churchill, rail links snake down through Manitoba, the American Midwest and points south all the way to Monterrey, Mexico. For Murmansk, an extended shipping season in Arctic ports that are now frozen much of the year could mean a boon in traffic - to the west and, perhaps once again, to the Far East. The city was once the anchor of the Soviet Union's Northern Sea Route, which stretched to nearly 3,500 miles to the rich nickel mines at Norilsk and on to newly established Arctic colonies at Dikson, Khatanga, Tiksi and Pevek before reaching the Bering Sea. At its height, in 1987, more than seven million tons of cargo traversed the icy route. But when the Soviet Union collapsed, so did the Northern Sea Route. Today it handles only 1.5 million tons. The Murmansk Shipping Company, newly privatized, now uses its icebreakers for tourist cruises to the North Pole - $15,000 to $20,000 a ticket, depending on the cabin. The same way an Arctic Bridge could drastically cut the distance to Canada, a revived Northern Sea Route could shorten the journey for goods and raw materials from Northeast Asia to Europe by 40 percent. Vladimir M. Chlenov, the transportation minister from the Siberian republic of Sakha, a vast region that borders the Laptev Sea, envisions dozens of ships carrying gold, timber and other resources up the Lena River to the port of Tiksi, and from there through ice-free seas to Europe and Asia. The waters near the Siberian shore - when free of ice - are too shallow for giant cargo ships, and the infrastructure needed for navigation has deteriorated. But a study conducted from 1993 to 1999 by researchers from Russia, Norway and Japan found that a route once sustained by Soviet diktat could also be viable for private enterprise. There is, of course, a third Arctic shipping route besides the Arctic Bridge and the Northern Sea Route: the Northwest Passage. It would be the last of the three main routes to succumb to the thaw. But some Canadian officials, eyeing what will happen in 20 years, say it is all the more justification for investing in the rebirth of Churchill. 'We're gearing up for the future,' said Mr. Lemieux, the Manitoba transportation minister. 'We look to be the gateway, the logistical hub of the world for circumpolar navigation.' A lucky winner would be Pat Broe, the American who bought the Port of Churchill in 1997 almost as an afterthought, for a token $10 Canadian. Looking to expand his railroad company, OmniTrax, he had already paid $11 million for 810 miles of denationalized tracks in Manitoba. He acquired the port at auction, figuring he would rather own it than have someone else use it as a 'toll booth' for his railroad. Mr. Broe, a private man, declined to be interviewed for this article. Since his acquisitions, OmniTrax estimates it has spent $50 million modernizing the port to accommodate big ships carrying exports like grain and farm machinery to Murmansk, and incoming Russian products, including fertilizer and steel. By some hopeful estimates, Churchill's shipping season could eventually grow to 8 or even 10 months a year, compared with the current 4. Michael J. Ogborn, OmniTrax's managing director, said he could see a future for Churchill when 'the activity at the port will be as busy as an anthill, with machines, people, freight and ships at dock.' For now, though, there is a problem. While the port has continued to ship grain to Europe and North Africa, it is still waiting for its ship to come in - any ship from Russia, to demonstrate the advantages of the Arctic Bridge. 'There is still a huge marketing effort needed to educate shippers why they should ship through Churchill,' Mr. Ogborn conceded. And in an arena where sharp elbows are often the norm, there is great cooperation between Canada and Russia, not least through Russia's ambassador to Canada, Georgy E. Mamedov. A spreader of good will, the ambassador has even suggested using decommissioned nuclear submarines to transport cargo under the ice. On a visit to Churchill last year, he appointed his local driver honorary Russian consul, and stopped at the 'jail' for polar bears that wander into town, laying his hand on the big black nose of one anesthetized inmate and addressing it fondly in Russian. In the months since, Mr. Mamedov has talked ebulliently of the Arctic Bridge in meetings with Canadian officials, business groups and reporters. 'Go to Churchill,' he said in one interview. 'Go there.'

Subject: Strands in Fight Over Peru Gold Mine From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 06:08:56 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/international/americas/25GOLD.html?ex=1287892800&en=b11552f1154afd44&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 25, 2005 Tangled Strands in Fight Over Peru Gold Mine By JANE PERLEZ and LOWELL BERGMAN SAN CERILLO, Peru - The Rev. Marco Arana drove his beige pickup over the curves of a dirt road 13,000 feet high in the Andes. Spread out below lay the Yanacocha gold mine, an American-run operation of mammoth open pits and towering heaps of cyanide-laced ore. Ahead loomed the pristine green of untouched hills. Then, an unmistakable sign that this land, too, may soon be devoured: Policemen with black masks and automatic rifles guarding workers exploring ground that the mine's owner, Newmont Mining Corporation, has deemed the next best hope. 'This is the Roman peace the company has with the people: They put in an army and say we have peace,' said Father Arana as he surveyed the land where gold lies beneath the surface like tiny beads on a string. Yanacocha is Newmont's prize possession, the most productive gold mine in the world. But if history holds one lesson, it is that where there is gold, there is conflict, and the more gold, the more conflict. Newmont, which has pulled more than 19 million ounces of gold from these gently sloping Peruvian hills - over $7 billion worth - believes that they hold several million ounces more. But where Newmont sees a new reserve of wealth - to keep Yanacocha profitable and to stay ahead of its competitors - the local farmers and cattle grazers see sacred mountains, cradles of the water that sustains their highland lives. The armed guards are here because of what happened in the fall of 2004 at a nearby mountain called Cerro Quilish. For two weeks, fearing that the company's plans to expand Yanacocha would mean Quilish's desecration and destruction, thousands of local people laid siege to the mine. Women and children were arrested, tear gas was thrown, the wounded hospitalized after clashes with the police. In the end, the world's No. 1 gold-mining company backed down. Father Arana, who runs a local group formed to challenge the mine, helped negotiate the terms of surrender. Newmont withdrew its drilling equipment from Quilish - and the promised reserves from its books. Now, in large part because of the loss of Quilish, the company says production at Yanacocha may fall 35 percent or more in two years. The forced retreat, a culmination of years of distrust between the peasants and the mine, was a chastening blow for an industry in the midst of a boom. It underscored the environmental and social costs of the technologies needed to extract the ever-more-valuable ore from modern mines. And it showed how a rising global backlash against those costs was forcing mining companies to negotiate what has come to be known as 'social license' if that boom was to go on. But the history of Yanacocha, pieced together in a six-month examination by The New York Times and the PBS television program 'FrontlineWorld,' is also an excursion into the moral ambiguities that often attend when a first-world company does business in a third-world land. Gold miners say they have no choice but to go where the ore is; they cannot choose the governments they deal with. Yanacocha shows how one company maneuvered in a country, Peru, dominated by a secret web of power under a corrupt autocracy. Newmont gained undisputed control of Yanacocha in 2000 after years of back-room legal wrangling. Behind the scenes, Newmont and its adversaries - a French company and its Australian ally - reached into the upper levels of the American, French and Peruvian governments, employing a cast of former and active intelligence officials, including Peru's ruthless secret police chief, Vladimiro Montesinos. Much of that arm-twisting has been dragged into the light, in secret recordings by the spy chief. The tapes, apparently intended to blackmail and manipulate Peru's powerbrokers, surfaced in 2000 and led to the downfall of Mr. Montesinos and the president he served, Alberto K. Fujimori. The tapes captured everything from plotting to fix elections to shopping bags of money being unloaded for payoffs in Mr. Montesinos's office at the Peruvian National Intelligence Agency. They captured Newmont's maneuverings, too. In one audio recording, the No. 3 Newmont executive at the time, Lawrence T. Kurlander, is heard offering to do a favor for Mr. Montesinos. 'Now you have a friend for life,' Mr. Kurlander tells the spy chief. 'You have a friend for life also,' Mr. Montesinos replies. Last year, a Justice Department investigation into whether Newmont's victory resulted from bribing foreign officials was dropped after the Peruvian government failed to cooperate fully and the statute of limitations expired, according to law enforcement officials familiar with the case. The Peruvian government investigated the Yanacocha affair without bringing charges. Mr. Kurlander has agreed to speak out publicly about his meeting for the first time. He says he regrets seeking out Mr. Montesinos, now in jail charged with everything from corruption to gun running and drug trafficking. But Mr. Kurlander and Newmont are adamant that no bribes were paid, nothing illicit done, at least not by them or their allies. 'Everybody involved on the American side, in the American government, that went to see him or spoke to him, asked for a level playing field,' said Mr. Kurlander, who retired in 2002. 'Not a single person asked for him to influence the outcome of the case.' Newmont's senior executives declined repeated requests for interviews for this article, though they did allow Times reporters to make an extensive visit to the Yanacocha mine. But in a written statement, Newmont said of its legal battle for the mine, 'We are satisfied that the company complied in all respects with applicable laws.' Whatever the past environmental problems, Newmont says Yanacocha now meets all Peruvian and international standards. And the company says it is committed to gaining and maintaining the approval of the community. Still, to many of the local people, the continuing struggle for Yanacocha evokes a tale of treachery nearly any Peruvian school child can recite. In 1532, the Spanish conquistador Francisco Pizarro captured the last Inca emperor, Atahualpa, in Cajamarca, the provincial capital 28 miles from Yanacocha. The young Inca, a god to his people, was held for months while he scrambled to amass a ransom: enough gold to fill a room as high as his arm could reach. He turned over his gold, expecting to be freed. But Pizarro killed him anyway. Living on Water At first, people here saw possibility in the mine. Yanacocha - 'black lake' in the indigenous Quechua tongue - sits in one of the poorest agricultural regions of Peru. 'When Yanacocha began its operations, we would only hear about how everyone was happy,' Father Arana said. 'The mine was going to bring jobs, improve roads.' No one thought much, he said, about the inevitable collisions. The collisions began almost immediately. In the Andean peasants' universe, water is the heart of the land. The people depend on it - for their animals, for drinking, for bathing. Community life is organized around it. But the mine lives on water, too. The bits of gold here, so small they are called 'invisible gold,' can be mined profitably only by blasting mountains, then culling the gold with vast quantities of cyanide diluted with similarly vast quantities of water. It was not long before the peasants began to complain. Streams and canals were drying up, they said. They were filled with murky sediment. The water smelled foul. But on the ledger books, Yanacocha was a fast success. The mine had started with 1.3 million ounces of reserves in the ground. Within a year, it claimed over 3 million. It was the biggest foreign investment in Peru. 'Everywhere we drilled and looked, there was gold,' said Len Harris, Yanacocha's first general manager. Dueling Companies Celebration soon gave way to strife. A year before, a partnership had been formed to develop the mine: Newmont; a Peruvian partner, Buenaventura; and a French government-owned company, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM). No partner had a controlling interest. The World Bank's investment arm, the International Finance Corporation, later took a 5 percent stake, hoping to promote development in a country plagued by economic chaos and roiled by a Maoist insurgent group, Shining Path. With the mine expanding and the guerrilla leader captured, BRGM announced plans to sell a large part of its increasingly valuable stake to an Australia-based company, Normandy Poseidon. Newmont, considering the involvement of another major mining company unacceptable, sued, arguing that the partnership agreement gave it and Buenaventura first right of refusal on any sale. Twice, Peruvian courts agreed. Then, in September of 1997, the Peruvian Supreme Court issued a startling ruling, agreeing to review a case Newmont thought it had definitively won. Stunned and suspicious, the company called in Mr. Kurlander. Mr. Kurlander, then 56, had spent most of his life in government, as a prosecutor and as chief criminal-justice adviser to Gov. Mario M. Cuomo in New York. He later moved to corporate work and was recruited by Newmont in 1994. He had no experience in mining, but in an industry known for its rough edges, he became a top Newmont executive, valued for his political contacts and easy ability to walk between the halls of government and the corporate suite. On his arrival in Peru, Mr. Kurlander says, he was told by Newmont's lawyers and security chief that the French were 'behaving inappropriately in the litigation.' 'The mere fact that they were doing this,' he said in an interview, 'was unseemly at best and corrupt at worst.' Newmont, he said, was at a distinct disadvantage: the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act forbids American companies to pay anything of value to a foreign official in exchange for a 'result.' By contrast, in 1997, most European countries, France included, did not prohibit paying bribes. The French ambassador to Peru at the time, Antoine Blanca, said in an interview that no one connected to the embassy had ever offered bribes or otherwise acted improperly. Still, what emerges from documents and interviews with participants is a picture of three years of increasing pressure and intimated threats by Normandy and the government of France. In the Peruvian press, the French ambassador insinuated corruption of the judiciary; French government emissaries suggested to Peruvian officials that there would be consequences if Newmont was awarded the disputed shares. Normandy recruited Patrick Maugein, a well-connected French businessman. By phone, fax and letter, Mr. Maugein placed Newmont and Buenaventura on notice that the dispute had become a 'matter of state'; the French, he warned, 'had every intention of fighting it to the bitter end.' Mr. Maugein had ties to the French president, Jacques Chirac, and soon Mr. Chirac wrote to President Fujimori, urging a Supreme Court review and his personal intervention. Mr. Maugein declined to be interviewed for this article, but in a letter wrote that any allegations of illicit activity 'come from people who have been paid to make them.' From Lima, in the days after the Supreme Court agreed to take the case, Mr. Kurlander headed to Washington to enlist help on the American side. By the end of October 1997, Stuart E. Eizenstat, under secretary of state for economic affairs, wrote Peru's prime minister to press for 'a fair and impartial hearing,' according to documents released under the Freedom of Information Act. 'A politically tainted decision would adversely affect U.S. investment in Peru,' he wrote On Jan. 5, 1998, Peru's Supreme Court came back with a preliminary decision; 3 to 2 for the French, one vote shy of victory. As the Peruvians prepared to assign two more judges to the case, Mr. Kurlander says, he and Buenaventura's chief, Alberto Benavides, appealed to Mr. Fujimori. Soon after, Mr. Kurlander said, the president's office sent word about the man to see. Spy Chief's Favor Bank Vladimiro Montesinos's titles never matched his stature. Officially, he was 'counselor' to Mr. Fujimori and de facto head of the National Intelligence Service. In reality, he was the second-most-powerful man in Peru - 'Rasputin, Darth Vadar, Torquemada and Cardinal Richelieu' rolled into one, according to an American Army intelligence report. The National Intelligence Service was also on the payroll of the C.I.A., which gave Mr. Montesinos a million dollars a year for his supposed help in combating the narcotics trade, according to former C.I.A. officials who approved the payments. This was the man Mr. Kurlander headed to see alone on Feb. 26, 1998. While he says he knew that Mr. Montesinos was 'an extremely bad man,' he maintains that the extent of the government's corruption and human rights abuses were not well known at the time. There was, however, one case he was aware of. Not long before, the Fujimori government had seized the television station of a Peruvian-Israeli businessman, Baruch Ivcher, after it began broadcasting reports tying the intelligence chief to drug trafficking and corruption. Mr. Kurlander knew that publicity about the case was threatening to become a headache for Peru's government. As the secret tape rolls, Mr. Montesinos says he is aware of Mr. Kurlander's problems and is 'very glad to do whatever I can for you.' Mr. Kurlander describes his own links to the intelligence community and how he has enlisted 'friends' - two former C.I.A. officials - to assist him, because the French side 'has been acting quite strangely.' Their conversation is interpreted by Grace Riggs, a lawyer and former lover of the spy chief who had a child with him. Soon Mr. Kurlander raises the Ivcher case. Mr. Montesinos assures him that the pursuit of Mr. Ivcher is not an anti-Semitic 'persecution,' and Mr. Kurlander offers to help by lobbying his fellow Jews in the United States and abroad. 'Tell him I going to help him with the voting,' Mr. Montesinos directs his translator. He is well aware of the 'tricky practices of the French government,' he says, making a joke about 'The French Connection.' The reference, in English, gets the men laughing. Soon spy chief and executive are pledging friendship for life. The spy chief then proceeds to discuss with another man, who has never been identified, the lawyers and judges who may need to be influenced. The conversation is in Spanish, which Ms. Riggs does not translate. Finally, she tells Mr. Kurlander that because he helps Mr. Montesinos 'without expecting anything in return,' the spy chef 'wants to do the same thing for you.' 'I appreciate that,' Mr. Kurlander replies. 'Amor con amor se paga,' Mr. Montesinos exclaims. Love is repaid with love.Still, Mr. Kurlander says, he had doubts. In the following weeks, 'nothing happened,' he said. 'I was very worried that we were lost.' In fact, the channel between Mr. Montesinos and the Americans was open and bustling. Peter Romero, then assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, acknowledged in an interview that he had twice called Mr. Montesinos to show that the case was being 'monitored' in Washington. 'He seemed to be a nice enough fellow,' he recalled. The 'compelling reason' to get involved, he said, came from Peruvian and American Embassy officials who confirmed the direct involvement of President Chirac and others at the top of the French government. 'We wanted to ensure that that was neutralized,' Mr. Romero said. Two and a half years later, Mr. Romero left government and was hired by Mr. Kurlander as a consultant on Peru for Newmont, where he remained for 18 months. On April 14, six weeks after the Montesinos-Kurlander meeting, the video cameras were rolling for a visit from the C.I.A. station chief, Don Arabian. As the meeting nears its end, Mr. Montesinos says he has been collecting information on the French attempt to influence the case and will not let them use 'extortion, blackmail and other gangster' methods. 'I'm not working with the telephones, but we will if necessary,' Mr. Montesinos says, an apparent reference to wiretapping. 'We'll sort out the technical support.' The men laugh. Mr. Arabian, who recently retired, declined a request for an interview. On May 8, the sixth Supreme Court justice voted in favor of Newmont and Buenaventura. With the vote deadlocked, 3-3, the court administrator appointed a final judge, Jaime Beltrán Quiroga. He was summoned the next day by Mr. Montesinos. A videotape shows the justice settled on the couch as Mr. Montesinos talks about how, as a lawyer he, too, would normally 'keep a distance' from events. But 'in these cases,' he says, 'one has to intervene directly.' Mr. Montesinos avoids direct pressure - 'as if we are imposing on you' - but reminds the judge that the case is a matter of national interest: the United States is a key guarantor of coming deliberations over Peru's border conflict with Ecuador. There is no discussion of payoffs, but the spy chief does question the judge about his professional ambitions. The men reminisce. 'Well, doctor, you have a friend here,' Judge Beltrán says. 'My dear, Jaime, then, a pleasure to see you, brother,' Mr. Montesinos replies, assuring his guest that he will soon be transferred to Peru's Constitutional Court. Judge Beltrán's vote was announced two weeks later: Newmont and Buenaventura were awarded BRGM's share - at the purchase price set in 1993: $109.7 million. When the final transfer was negotiated a year later, the stake was valued at more than five times that. Today Mr. Kurlander says that whatever his reservations at the time about meeting Mr. Montesinos, he went ahead because nearly everyone told him, 'If the French were to be stopped, he was the only one in Peru who would dare to do it.' The transcript is 'terribly unfair,' Mr. Kurlander says, and leaves out a number of his statements that all he wanted was a 'level playing field.' Mr. Kurlander's name has been attached to the meeting and his reputation harmed, he says, though he insists the meeting was no secret. He says his Newmont superiors and his partners in the Benavides family were thoroughly briefed. 'It was my government who recommended - strongly - that we speak with him,' Mr. Kurlander said at his home outside Denver. 'Tell me what my option is at that point. Do I lay down and just fold, fold up and go home? Or do I fight for what I think is right and fair and just?' In an interview at his Lima offices, Mr. Benavides, now Buenaventura's chief executive, insisted, 'We didn't know what Mr. Kurlander was doing,' and added that he did not learn about the Montesinos meeting until the tape was made public several years later. The Mercury Spill At Yanacocha, year after year, the mine's geologists had kept striking gold. And with every ton of earth sifted, it became ever clearer that the mine had not just ripped up the landscape; it had remade the social architecture, too. There were growing class divisions, between the many campesinos who had received well-paying jobs - Yanacocha would eventually employ as many as 2,200 people, two-thirds locals, full time, and up to 6,000 on shorter-term contracts - and the tens of thousands more who had not. People migrating to the region in pursuit of work brought overcrowding and rising crime. In June 2000, a truck contracted to carry canisters of mercury, a byproduct of mining, spilled 330 pounds of the poisonous metal over 25 miles of road around Choropampa, 53 miles from the mine. The villagers believed that the mercury was mixed with gold. They scooped it up. Some took it home to cook on their stoves. A World Bank report later said the mine delayed reporting the accident to the national authorities and initially played down its seriousness to the bank. In the end, the Peruvian government fined the mine $500,000; the company says it has paid $18 million more. A class-action suit has been filed against Newmont in Denver, charging that more than 1,000 people were harmed, some for life. The extent of that damage has been in dispute from the start. Even so, the spill left deep psychic scars. It became common mythology that mercury had killed newborn babies and caused cancer and other diseases, Dante Vera, a former Peruvian Interior Ministry official hired in 2004 as an adviser to Newmont, wrote in a report to company executives. At Newmont, it was becoming increasingly clear that the social turmoil was a business problem. The spill, Mr. Kurlander said in a speech a year later, 'served as a wake-up call for us.' Soon, he was headed back to Peru, to lead an environmental audit of the mine. Newmont kept the audit's results within the company, never acknowledging them publicly - either to its shareholders or to the local people. Mr. Kurlander found 'a high level of mistrust' of the mine. But the 44 findings of Mr. Kurlander's audit, which was given to The Times, also confirmed many of the villagers' specific complaints: that fish were disappearing and that lakes, streams and canals were being contaminated, at least one with cyanide. One stream, Quebrada Honda, had 13 fish per kilometer in 1997, but none by 2000, the audit said. Thousand of tons of rock not processed for gold recovery were generating dangerous acidic runoffs. In a letter after the audit, Mr. Kurlander says that as the mine expanded, 'we eliminated many environmental safeguards that were in the construction and environmental management plans.' In all, he wrote to Newmont's new chief executive, Wayne Murdy, the findings were so serious that they could jeopardize the mine's continued operation and leave senior executives subject to 'criminal prosecution and imprisonment.' Mr. Kurlander's tough words came on the heels of another memo to Mr. Murdy about the spill: On Jan. 18, 2001, Mr. Kurlander recommended that all the top executives, including himself and his boss, take cuts in their bonuses, of 50 to 100 percent, and that the punishment be made public. Mr. Kurlander singled out the company's environmental team, saying that despite public pledges, Newmont had failed to adhere to American environmental standards. To his disappointment, Mr. Kurlander said, some bonuses were indeed reduced, but without public notice and much more modestly than he had recommended. In a letter to Mr. Kurlander three years later, Mr. Murdy said the company had learned from the accident and the audit. Newmont, he said, spent $100 million to fix the environmental problems, including $50 million for a water-treatment plant and $20 million on two dams to prevent sediment from clogging streams and canals. Mercury is now shipped inside triple-sealed, stainless-steel containers and escorted by a convoy of cars. To Mr. Kurlander, the spill showed the folly of a company ignoring the people, particularly the people most set against the mine. In a memo, he warned that with the mine sunk so low in the peasants' esteem, Newmont would never be able to mine Quilish. 'We have come to this because we have been in denial,' he wrote. 'We have not heeded the voices of those most intimate with our mine - those who live and work nearby.' It was less than a year after the audit that he retired. The Peasants Protest The protests began not long after people began seeing the drilling machines up on the cone-shaped hill above Cajamarca. Quilish had long been on Newmont's drawing boards. Last year, Newmont mined three million ounces at Yanacocha, its most profitable single source of gold. But the more it pulls from the ground, the more it must replace to remain No. 1. Back in 2000, the local government had passed an ordinance declaring Quilish and its watershed a protected natural reserve. But Newmont had persuaded a Peruvian court that it had the right to mine because it had acquired the concession years before. In August 2004, the machines moved in. To many people, that was the final betrayal, said Mr. Vera, the former Newmont consultant. He quit this summer, saying his advice had been ignored. On Sept. 2, deploying boulders, vehicles, anything they could find, hundreds of campesinos blockaded the narrow mountain road that runs from Cajamarca to the mine. Several hundred armed officers, including 150 special operations police officers from Lima, were sent in to guard the mine. The first day was the most violent; protesters were arrested, many of them women and old people, according to Father Arana's colleague, Jorge Camacho. At times during the siege, the police used tear gas. One man was shot in the leg. The company kept the gold coming out of Yanacocha, but only by helicoptering the workers in. On Sept. 15, there was a regionwide strike, with street demonstrations in Cajamarca. The message, on one of the blizzard of placards in town, was: 'Listen Yanacocha. Cajamarca is to be respected.' The protests were organized by the peasants themselves, Mr. Camacho and others say. But the 43-year-old Father Arana, son of teachers from Cajamarca, had been nurturing the movement for many years, even before he founded his group, Grufides, in the late 1990's. (These days, it receives financial assistance from Oxfam.) The campesinos call him Father Marco, and he is a devoted adherent of liberation theology and its doctrine of social activism for the poor. He is not the easiest of men. Last spring, he met Newmont's chief, Mr. Murdy, on the sidelines of the company's annual general meeting in Denver. As the priest recalls it, Mr. Murdy tried to be conciliatory, saying he lived by his mother's motto: 'We are given one mouth but two ears to listen with.' Father Marco says he rebuffed the overture, replying, 'In the Bible, there is a saying about some people have eyes that don't see and ears that don't hear.' As the siege ran on at Yanacocha, the priest became a key negotiator between Newmont, the peasants and the Ministry of Mines. It was not long after the demonstrations in Cajamarca that the company surrendered. The machines came down from Quilish. At Newmont's request, the ministry withdrew its permit, too. What remains up on the mountain is a symbolic wall of mud and straw that the campesinos built to keep the miners at bay. Standing down at Quilish, with its 3.8 million ounces of reserves, has only intensified the need for new reserves. 'The pressure feels like you're laying track and knowing there's a locomotive right behind you,' said the mine's exploration manager, Lewis Teal. So Newmont is looking elsewhere, in the highlands near San Cerillo, where the jade-green lagoons and peaty grasses act as a store of water for the peasants below. Many people there worry about the effects of a new mine. Which is why, after Quilish, Newmont is paying for the Peruvian police units protecting the drilling team, said the mine's manager, Brant Hinze. Even so, Mr. Hinze said, leaving Quilish was the right thing to do. 'The thing that the company did - both Newmont and Buenaventura - is listen to the communities, and they said this is something we want you to stay away from,' he said. Newmont's Peruvian partner, Mr. Benavides, argued that exploration of Quilish had not been abandoned, simply suspended. 'We have the concession, and we have the land,' he said. He added: 'I do not understand what social license means. I expect a license from the authorities, from the minister of mines. I expect a license from the regional government. I don't expect a license from the whole community.' Still, the idea of social license is at the heart of the agreement that ended the siege: If Newmont hopes ever to mine Quilish, it first must win the community's consent. Company Social Work So to promote Yanacocha's well-being and expansion, Mr. Hinze has become the kind of mine manager he never imagined being. He says he had asked for the job running Yanacocha because of its sheer scale - 'it's big, it's profitable,' is how he puts it. Fifty years old, silver-haired and steely eyed, 6 foot 3 and 255 pounds, he is a man of scale himself. His idea of recreation, he says, is riding his Harley or swimming with hammerhead sharks. Now, he says, he spends 70 to 80 percent of his working time on social issues. On a recent day, he ate roasted guinea pig at a lunch with a peasant group. A few days later, he attended a ceremony celebrating a gift of $500,000 for a new road around San Cerillo. 'Modern mining can coexist with cattle, agriculture and tourism,' he told one gathering. 'Today we begin a new history for communities around here.' Newmont says that it paid $180 million in taxes to Peru's government last year, and that under a new law, half was returned to the Cajamarca region. But to its frustration, the company says, the local government has largely been unable to use the money to benefit the people - and most of the people here remain achingly poor. So the company, albeit ambivalently, has become something of a surrogate government. It is contributing money for schools and clinics and building some small water treatment plants in the villages. In all, the company says it will spend nearly $20 million this year on social programs. Water remains a divisive issue: Father Arana and his allies argue that a new, every-three-weeks testing protocol is insufficiently independent. The peasants continue to complain. But company and local officials say there have been no environmental accidents at Yanacocha in more than two years, and the mine says it manages its water to ensure there is enough for the community. But the biggest issue is the one looming over every modern industrial gold mine: What happens when the ore that lured the miners here is gone? Over 13 years, Newmont has moved mountains for gold - 30 tons of rock and earth for every ounce. By the time it is through, the company will have dug up a billion tons of earth. Much of it will be laced with acids and heavy metals. Three years ago, after Newmont acknowledged that 36,700 fish were missing from a river contaminated by the mine, the World Bank hired an American geochemist, Ann Maest, to study the streams and canals flowing from the mine. In the short term, she concluded, the water was safe for human use. But long term, she said in an interview, the company's own tests show that all the components are in place for the huge piles of rock to leak acids that will pollute surface and groundwater. The only preventive, she said, would be 'perpetual treatment.' Mr. Hinze, who was recently appointed head of Newmont's North American operations, insists that the company's plan for closing the mine will take care of long-term treatment and cleanup. 'We plan on being here a very long time,' he said. Newmont has yet to put aside money for long-term treatment, though it says it will comply with a Peruvian government requirement due to take effect in 2007. But to pay for cleanups, the company needs to keep profits high. To keep profits high, it needs to keep finding and mining more gold. Yet increasingly, the unmovable reality is that to keep mining more gold, it has to make peace with the people who will be here long after the miners leave. Mr. Hinze and Newmont insist that that can - in fact, must - be done, even if some people may never be won over. 'There will always be a level of mistrust,' he said. 'Unfortunately, we can't please everyone.' Mr. Vera, the former Newmont consultant, is not so confident. He says he sometimes thinks that the clash between the mine and the peasants is so fundamental as to be beyond even the best intentions. 'Mining negatively affects the Andean cosmic vision of the unity of nature,' he said. 'The conflict cannot be settled with money. Mining generates resentments that are difficult to heal.'

Subject: Rosa Parks From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 06:03:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/national/25parks.html?ex=1287892800&en=52fca835e8ca919d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 25, 2005 Rosa Parks, 92, Founding Symbol of Civil Rights Movement By E. R. SHIPP Rosa Parks, a black seamstress whose refusal to relinquish her seat to a white man on a city bus in Montgomery, Ala., almost 50 years ago grew into a mythic event that helped touch off the civil rights movement of the 1950's and 1960's, died yesterday at her home in Detroit. She was 92 years old. Her death was confirmed by Dennis W. Archer, the former mayor of Detroit. For her act of defiance, Mrs. Parks was arrested, convicted of violating the segregation laws and fined $10, plus $4 in court fees. In response, blacks in Montgomery boycotted the buses for nearly 13 months while mounting a successful Supreme Court challenge to the Jim Crow law that enforced their second-class status on the public bus system. The events that began on that bus in the winter of 1955 captivated the nation and transformed a 26-year-old preacher named Martin Luther King Jr. into a major civil rights leader. It was Dr. King, the new pastor of the Dexter Avenue Baptist Church in Montgomery, who was drafted to head the Montgomery Improvement Association, the organization formed to direct the nascent civil rights struggle. 'Mrs. Parks's arrest was the precipitating factor rather than the cause of the protest,' Dr. King wrote in his 1958 book, 'Stride Toward Freedom. 'The cause lay deep in the record of similar injustices.' Her act of civil disobedience, what seems a simple gesture of defiance so many years later, was in fact a dangerous, even reckless move in 1950's Alabama. In refusing to move, she risked legal sanction and perhaps even physical harm, but she also set into motion something far beyond the control of the city authorities. Mrs. Parks clarified for people far beyond Montgomery the cruelty and humiliation inherent in the laws and customs of segregation. That moment on the Cleveland Avenue bus also turned a very private woman into a reluctant symbol and torchbearer in the quest for racial equality and of a movement that became increasingly organized and sophisticated in making demands and getting results. 'She sat down in order that we might stand up,' the Rev. Jesse Jackson said yesterday in an interview from South Africa. 'Paradoxically, her imprisonment opened the doors for our long journey to freedom.' Even in the last years of her life, the frail Mrs. Parks made appearances at events and commemorations, saying little but lending the considerable strength of her presence. In recent years, she suffered from dementia, according to medical records released during a lawsuit over the use of her name by the hip-hop group OutKast.Over the years myth tended to obscure the truth about Mrs. Parks. One legend had it that she was a cleaning woman with bad feet who was too tired to drag herself to the rear of the bus. Another had it that she was a 'plant' by the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People. The truth, as she later explained, was that she was tired of being humiliated, of having to adapt to the byzantine rules, some codified as law and others passed on as tradition, that reinforced the position of blacks as something less than full human beings. 'She was fed up,' said Elaine Steele, a longtime friend and executive director of the Rosa and Raymond Parks Institute for Self Development. 'She was in her 40's. She was not a child. There comes a point where you say, 'No, I'm a full citizen, too. This is not the way I should be treated.' ' In 'Stride Toward Freedom,' Dr. King wrote, 'Actually no one can understand the action of Mrs. Parks unless he realizes that eventually the cup of endurance runs over, and the human personality cries out, 'I can take it no longer.' ' Mrs. Parks was very active in the Montgomery N.A.A.C.P. chapter, and she and her husband, Raymond, a barber, had taken part in voter registration drives. At the urging of an employer, Virginia Durr, Mrs. Parks had attended an interracial leadership conference at the Highlander Folk School in Monteagle, Tenn., in the summer of 1955. There, she later said, she 'gained strength to persevere in my work for freedom, not just for blacks but for all oppressed people.' But as she rushed home from her job as a seamstress at a department store on Dec. 1, 1955, the last thing on her mind was becoming 'the mother of the civil rights movement,' as many would later describe her. She had to send out notices of the N.A.A.C.P.'s coming election of officers. And she had to prepare for the workshop that she was running for teenagers that weekend. 'So it was not a time for me to be planning to get arrested,' she said in an interview in 1988. On Montgomery buses, the first four rows were reserved for whites. The rear was for blacks, who made up more than 75 percent of the bus system's riders. Blacks could sit in the middle rows until those seats were needed by whites. Then the blacks had to move to seats in the rear, stand or, if there was no room, leave the bus. Even getting on the bus presented hurdles: If whites were already sitting in the front, blacks could board to pay the fare but then they had to disembark and re-enter through the rear door. For years blacks had complained, and Mrs. Parks was no exception. 'My resisting being mistreated on the bus did not begin with that particular arrest,' she said. 'I did a lot of walking in Montgomery.' After a confrontation in 1943, a driver named James Blake ejected Mrs. Parks from his bus. As fate would have it, he was driving the Cleveland Avenue bus on Dec. 1, 1955. He demanded that four blacks give up their seats in the middle section so a lone white man could sit. Three of them complied. Recalling the incident for 'Eyes on the Prize,' a 1987 public television series on the civil rights movement, Mrs. Parks said: 'When he saw me still sitting, he asked if I was going to stand up and I said, 'No, I'm not.' And he said, 'Well, if you don't stand up, I'm going to have to call the police and have you arrested.' I said, 'You may do that.' ' Her arrest was the answer to prayers for the Women's Political Council, which was set up in 1946 in response to the mistreatment of black bus riders, and for E. D. Nixon, a leading advocate of equality for blacks in Montgomery. Blacks had been arrested, and even killed, for disobeying bus drivers. They had begun to build a case around a 15-year-old girl's arrest for refusing to give up her seat, and Mrs. Parks had been among those raising money for the girl's defense. But when they learned that the girl was pregnant, they decided that she was an unsuitable symbol for their cause. Mrs. Parks, on the other hand, was regarded as 'one of the finest citizens of Montgomery - not one of the finest Negro citizens - but one of the finest citizens of Montgomery,' Dr. King said. While Mr. Nixon met with lawyers and preachers to plan an assault on the Jim Crow laws, the women's council distributed 35,000 copies of a handbill that urged blacks to boycott the buses on Monday, Dec. 5, the day of Mrs. Parks's trial. 'Don't ride the buses to work, to town, to school, or anywhere on Monday,' the leaflet said. On Sunday, Dec. 4, the announcement was made from many black pulpits, and a front-page article in The Montgomery Advertiser, a black newspaper, further spread the word. Some blacks rode in carpools that Monday. Others rode in black-owned taxis that charged only the bus fare, 10 cents. But most black commuters - 40,000 people - walked, some more than 20 miles. At a church rally that night, blacks unanimously agreed to continue the boycott until these demands were met: that they be treated with courtesy, that black drivers be hired, and that seating in the middle of the bus go on a first-come basis. The boycott lasted 381 days, and in that period many blacks were harassed and arrested on flimsy excuses. Churches and houses, including those of Dr. King and Mr. Nixon, were dynamited. Finally, on Nov. 13, 1956, in Browder v. Gayle, the Supreme Court outlawed segregation on buses. The court order arrived in Montgomery on Dec. 20; the boycott ended the next day. But the violence escalated: snipers fired into buses as well as Dr. King's home, and bombs were tossed into churches and into the homes of ministers. Early the next year, the Parkses left Montgomery for Hampton, Va., largely because Mrs. Parks had been unable to find work, but also because of disagreements with Dr. King and other leaders of the city's struggling civil rights movement. Later that year, at the urging of her younger brother, Sylvester, Mrs. Parks, her husband and her mother, Leona McCauley, moved to Detroit. Mrs. Parks worked as a seamstress until 1965, when Representative John Conyers Jr. hired her as an aide for his Congressional office in Detroit. She retired in 1988. 'There are very few people who can say their actions and conduct changed the face of the nation,' Mr. Conyers said yesterday in a statement, 'and Rosa Parks is one of those individuals.' Mrs. Parks's husband, Raymond, died in 1977. There are no immediate survivors. In the last decade, Mrs. Parks was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom and the Congressional Gold Medal. But even as she remained an icon of textbooks , her final years were troubled. She was hospitalized after a 28-year-old man beat her in her home and stole $53. She had problems paying her rent, relying on a local church for support until last December, when her landlord stopped charging her rent. Rosa Louise McCauley was born in Tuskegee, Ala., on Feb. 4, 1913, the elder of Leona and James McCauley's two children. Although the McCauleys were farmers, Mr. McCauley also worked as a carpenter and Mrs. McCauley as a teacher. Rosa McCauley attended rural schools until she was 11 years old, then Miss White's School for Girls in Montgomery. She attended high school at the Alabama State Teachers College, but dropped out to care for her ailing grandmother. It was not until she was 21 that she earned a high school diploma. Shy and soft-spoken, Mrs. Parks often appeared uncomfortable with the near-beatification bestowed upon her by blacks, who revered her as a symbol of their quest for dignity and equality. She would say that she hoped only to inspire others, especially young people, 'to be dedicated enough to make useful lives for themselves and to help others.' She also expressed fear that since the birthday of Dr. King became a national holiday, his image was being watered down and he was being depicted as merely a 'dreamer.' 'As I remember him, he was more than a dreamer,' Mrs. Parks said. 'He was an activist who believed in acting as well as speaking out against oppression.' She would laugh in recalling some of her experiences with children whose curiosity often outstripped their grasp of history: 'They want to know if I was alive during slavery times. They equate me along with Harriet Tubman and Sojourner Truth and ask if I knew them.'

Subject: Stirring Up a Commotion on Canvas From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 20:15:16 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/21/arts/design/21kimm.html?ex=1287547200&en=e511539f7e07da6a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 21, 2005 Stirring Up a Commotion on Canvas By MICHAEL KIMMELMAN THE philosopher Isaiah Berlin famously divided writers and thinkers into foxes and hedgehogs. Foxes are interested in many things, hedgehogs in one. Foxes move from one problem to another. Hedgehogs dig deep. Dante and Proust were hedgehogs. Molière and Pushkin were foxes. Einstein was a hedgehog. Shakespeare was a fox. Elizabeth Murray is a hedgehog. Her retrospective opening Sunday at the Museum of Modern Art presents the whole range of shape-shifting, dizzily colored pictures that she has been steadily producing over four decades. Ms. Murray paints cartoonish scenes on canvases that are multilayered or arranged like shards of shattered plates, or sculptured into behemoths, or combined like Tinkertoy parts that nuzzle and jostle. The colors are noisy, the harmonies pungent; references are to body parts, household furniture, kitchen utensils and comic-book symbols, generally twisted like taffy or otherwise sneakily abstracted. While art-world fashion has drifted here and there over the years, she has stuck to her craft, with all its difficulties and at the occasional cost of failure and neglect. Organized by Robert Storr, with an ancillary display of Ms. Murray's exquisite prints and a two-volume catalog that includes a clever (not too expensive) pop-up book, bespeaking her playful side, her show is a meaty, openhearted, eye-popping tribute to a beloved painter's painter. A hedgehog? She has pursued a problem partly inherited from Cubism, and filtered through Surrealism and comics. It is how to get movement (translating her absorption in the sensuous push and pull of pigment) into a static image - how to make a figurative painting, even when its subjects are inert objects like tables and glasses, convey instability, fracture, speed, collapse, explosion, thrust. This isn't a new problem, of course. Among others, Ms. Murray has had her great hero Cézanne to emulate. Her inclination has been to nudge painting toward relief sculpture: to concoct and combine panels and shaped canvases that teem with goofy incident and stuff. What results can look as rickety as an old jalopy. Paint pools, congeals and drips. Sides and edges of canvases stay unfinished, like the backs of stage props, openly belying their ostensible illusions. You love them or not for their messiness. Meanwhile, they are ingenious riffs on Cubist perspective. 'Don't Be Cruel' is twisted like a crumpled tissue floating on a breeze. Its subject is a table whose legs, by virtue of the twists to the canvas, appear both from the side and below. 'Wonderful World,' the size of a small church bell in a bell tower, imagines a cup and spoon as if they were made of Silly Putty, the cup squashed and bent to present both its top and bottom at once. Ms. Murray's first retrospective in New York, a traveling show, arrived at the Whitney in 1988: a big, tendentious survey of only about a decade's work, it skimmed over her earliest pictures. The first two rooms of this exhibition, making up for the previous oversight, should be required viewing for all aspiring artists. They contain mostly small or medium-size pictures, gangly, striving, heartfelt half-successes or half-failures of youth, made when Ms. Murray was a student in Chicago, then in Oakland and Buffalo, where she began to teach; and finally in New York, where she arrived, at 27, in 1967. Early on she started wrestling with Jasper Johns and Robert Rauschenberg and with collage and relief in works like 'A Mirror,' from 1963-64, which breaks out of the strict rectangle of its frame. Its pasty, pea-soup pigment belies the future extravagance of thick paint, her later gift, toward which it nevertheless clearly strains. A few years later comes 'Night Empire,' painted on printed fabric, like a Sigmar Polke before nearly anybody in America had ever heard of Sigmar Polke, stretched on what looks like a card table with rounded corners. (Tables would become a regular motif in due time.) It looks toward the shaped canvases and the sheer chutzpah of Ms. Murray's maturity. She has described wanting so much to belong to the New York art world when she came to the city that for a while she struggled to reconcile herself to Minimalism and abstraction. 'But the effect,' she has said, 'was to disguise my interest in subject matter.' An untitled picture from 1970, a clotted, Minimalist-inflected exercise, injects cartoonish shapes to adapt a figure from Cézanne's 'Card Players' so that it echoes the printed pattern of the earlier 'Night Empire.' A kinship with the Chicago eccentric Jim Nutt, perhaps coincidental, is hard to miss. Painted arrows drive home the impulse toward movement, the antithesis of Minimalist stasis. 'Madame Cézanne in Rocking Chair,' from 1972, a schematic cartoon in grid format, shows the French painter's stern, long-suffering wife transported through a window on a beam of light. More strictly Minimal pictures follow, arrangements of squares, blocks and lines. Having already noticed the tactile eloquence of Mr. Johns's encaustic surfaces, Ms. Murray now takes some cues from Agnes Martin and Brice Marden. Quavering, handcrafted patterns drawn into viscous textures, like incised wet plaster, organize colors that aspire to Mr. Marden's buttery yellows and jade. The lines mutate into wobbly curves and asymmetric Möbius bands implying not just movement but movement into depth. Ms. Murray next enlarges the scale with 'Pink Spiral Leap' (1975) and 'Beginner' (1976). These arrive in the show as logical consequences of a long gestation. But they still look shockingly big and bold. 'Beginner' entails a pink shoelace squiggle laid on top of a huge kidney-bean glyph, a 'Tweety Bird shape,' as Ms. Murray calls it, which locks into a thick, stony gray field. The gray is like slate. Tweety Bird is a shimmery dark blue, like a peacock's feather or glazed ceramic. The lines are sharp, the surface rich. This leads to more and more complex fields of blobs and zigzags that hark back to Stuart Davis at the same time that they ally Ms. Murray with friends and colleagues like Robert Moskowitz, Jennifer Bartlett and Susan Rothenberg, who defined so-called New Image painting, which was soon absorbed within the catchall of Neo-Expressionism. The art world was starting on its decade-long bender. For a while, Ms. Murray held her own in a marketplace besotted with testosterone and chest-thumping egos. In terms of subject matter, she stuck to her territory, 'despite the obvious risks that attached to her doing so because she was a woman,' as Mr. Storr puts it in the show's catalog; she painted 'interiors and still lifes, turning them inside out and transforming them into her own inimitably comic, calamity-prone theater of household upheaval.' It was a magpie style that frankly rejected high modernism's dictates about purity of form - an art of this plus that plus the other thing, occasionally bringing to mind Claes Oldenburg or Frank Stella or Philip Guston or graffiti art. Ms. Murray was, in other words, neither divorced from the mainstream nor fully accounted for by it. Which has remained her fate: an outsider-insider. As a critic once put it, there are some people who want to like her work more than they do. Meanwhile, she just does what she does. That the Modern is now devoting its first show by a living painter in its redesigned museum to Ms. Murray is, among other things, proof of how modernism is renewed every once in a while by strong-willed, adulterating figures like her. There have been periods, during the late 80's, for example, when her work became baroque and overwrought; it tried too hard to be big and bad; then briefly during the 90's, it got tight and slick, as if Ms. Murray were trying to prove to herself and perhaps to others her ability to paint smoothly. But she always manages to find herself, because in the end she is true to her heart. 'Join' (1980) exploits the design of a diptych, with the space between the panels, to picture a broken heart. 'Can You Hear Me?' (1984) turns Munch's famous scream - a cry of the heart - into the cartoon set piece of a whirling scythe, acidly colored. By 'Tangled' (1989-90), her funky Rube Goldberg contraptions have morphed into Martian topographies, or some weird enlargements of human innards with blood and pus. 'Art never seems to make me peaceful or pure,' Willem de Kooning once said. 'I always seem to be wrapped in the melodrama of vulgarity.' Going a bit further than Ms. Murray's pictures do, the remark still speaks to her indecorous and restless penchant for clattery shapes and colors that gladly flirt with the melodrama of vulgarity. The last room of the show includes recent paintings like 'Do the Dance,' along with studies that document their evolution. They're airy, dreamlike constructions of multiple parts: Ms. Murray's Rococo spell, after her baroque years. The emphasis is again on paint over construction. An ongoing bout with cancer is gently alluded to in a cartoonish figure with a stitched chest. But the mood is bright, breezy and full of life. It's childlike. Only a true veteran painter could pull that off. You're left with the sense of an artist in the flush of her authority and still digging deep.

Subject: Bernanke From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 15:18:15 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Is Bernanke likely to push for an extension of the Bush tax cuts soon after he has been appointed and will he be less likely to keep raising the fed rate to fight potential inflation? Is the 10 year bond yield more or less likely to rise with a Bernanke fed?

Subject: Re: Bernanke From: Emma To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 08:29:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The best possible choices for Federal Reserve chair were Ben Bernanke or Robert Rubin, but Rubin is a Democrat and had no chance of appointment. Bernanke will do as fine a job as conditions allow.

Subject: Re: Bernanke From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 08:49:57 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The media has thus far been focusing on his credentials. But what are his core economic beliefs? Isn't this a more important issue? Greenspan supported the Bush tax cuts before Congress and is now pushing for reductions in social security benefits after having pushed for large increases in payroll taxes back in the 80's. Presently, Greenspan along with other fed governors are concerned with inflation. Bernanke says he is not. So what will be the direction of the fed given Bernanke's economic philosophy? What is his economic philosophy? What does it mean for us?

Subject: Derivatives and Systemic Risk From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 18:27:42 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Helicopter Bernanke is going to make for interesting history - Mosler posted on his board how Greenspan has been flying over to asian countries getting them on board for the coming changes in the global banking system that is about to begin with global rising rates. Pete I read where capital gains and dividends will have no taxes from recommendations from the presidents advisory panel - but home mortgage deduction and AMT will snare the rich property owners. My friend Roy L on the sci.econ newsgroup thread has been advocating for the henry george methods for years now - less tax on income, wages and more tax on property ownership - that people should not be subsidized for being landlords or real estate investors. Now I have recently found this website about banking, derivativs and systemic risk. http://bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com/ In his various posts he goes into a lot a specific history of Jacksons movement to dismantle fractional reserve banking, the MYTH of a gold standard pre depression, how governments today can NOT allow us to deflate and lose political power, how inflation is the only way to stay in power and how PMI and counter party risk will not have enough to save several declining property markets in various countries. In the recent Article posted by Emma of countrywides CEO he does say Greenspan is trying to protect the IVY league type banks and is taking away fannie freddie so that his company cannot find good counter party risk for his loans. The author of derivatives Blog also makes comments to the same effect - they will save the banks at all costs - no matter the suffering to the little guy. It is an informative site and I would appreciate it if you could pick out the gems in his posts and comment here. One of his comments: Answer #4 I personally think we are out of any more asset bubbles. Real estate is generally the last one you see because of its ubiquities nature and magnitude of money involved. As a financial mechanic, the federal funds rate is just not that important. Think about it, they are just setting the interest rate for an overnight loan. If a business or bank needs a cheaper loan they can always get it on the international market. So if the federal funds rate is 3.75% and a thirty year bond is 4%, why not just buy the bond or borrow from a foreign bank. The federal funds rate is smoke and mirrors to distract the uninformed. The Federal Reserve has many tools beyond adjusting the federal funds rate, which is not all that important beyond a political signal to the other countries. The Federal Reserve can and in the past has received all kinds of powers well beyond adjusting the short term rate. This is proven by Fed policy during the Depression and the S&L scandal. The power of the government over the banking system has really grown in the 70 years since the Depression. Here is a list of just some of the powers of the government as it relates to our banking and currency many are not aware of. The government can and has continued a policy of inflating the currency supply, a job for which the Federal Reserve was specifically invented to fulfill. The government can and has forced banks to loan money. They do it all the time. This is a subject which is very, very well documented. Loans to minorities is a good example. The government can and has taken the property rights away from the creditors of banks in order to keep insolvent banks from bankruptcy. This means a bank does not have to pay depositors or other creditors, but borrowers must still service their loans. The government can and has changed the accounting rules of banks to hide massive insolvency. RAP is a perfect example. The government can and has bailed out insolvent banks which are on the verge of bankruptcy, assuming the loans and obligations of the distressed bank, then liquidating or refinancing troubled loans. The government can and has taken the property rights away from creditors from borrowers and allowed borrowers to hold loans without servicing the debt. The government can and has made loans without any respect to the commercial interest rate in order to induce borrowing. This means that the government just arbitrarily chooses the interest rate of the loan. This happens every day. The government can and has the right to confiscate your property and pay you at a value it feels is fair. This power was just radically expanded. This is a fairly common action. The most radical confiscation was during the depression with the confiscation of gold, and the immediate revaluation of gold verses the US dollar. The government can and has the right to create any ability it seems necessary, limited only by sporadic voter uprisings. By the trend in inflation and government intervention, inflation and hyperinflation are not only in the future, but the only outcome that can happen at this point. Thanks for your responses ....As to our current situation with housing in the US, and the world for that matter you can expect some initial deflation in terms of the asset prices, but then the banking system will become unstable as banks become insolvent. If the banks cannot clear money transactions then the economic system get paralyzed as this induces first general insolvency and quickly, very quickly leads to bankruptcy. With enough bankruptcies, which make it harder to people to earn an honest living, social breakdown always occurs. To combat this and keep in power the government must bail out the banking system. In bailing out the banking system will certainly deflate the buying power of the dollar. However the corollary to this is that prices rise very quickly. Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, exchange rates may not change that much between countries because this would induce similar situations all over the world. Therefore Deflation, if you define it as the buying power of the dollar increasing can only happen as a lasting outcome with the total destruction of the banking system. The US would never allow this situation to happen, due to the fact that politicians are always trying to get re-elected and they need the political system in tact to do it, but the buying power of the dollar is an acceptable causality. There is no limit to how much the US can print. All that happens is that the world hyper-inflates with us, stealing the paper saving private citizens all over the world have accumulated. This would not be the first time a world currency has failed. The country in question just inflates in order to prevent social disintegration. As I stated before the only way with paper money you can have deflation is if you can A.) A mass exodus from the banking system, this is really not possible any more B.) A competing currency is available, all other currencies are based upon the US dollar and gold is no longer a currency that can be used. C.) Loss off Faith in the banking system, possible, but you have to at least have A or B in order to derail the amount of money created through fractional reserve banking and fend off inflation by removing money from the banking system. D.) Hyperinflation can happen regardless of anything else. The government just prints its way out of debt. This happens every few years somewhere on the globe. There is NO DEBT LEVEL TOO HIGH THAT A COUNTRY WITH DEBT DEFINED IN TERMS OF ITS OWN CURRENCY CANNOT HYPER INFLATE OUT OF. Hyper inflation causes problems, but not nearly as many as the collapse of the banking system, at least from a political point of view. China and Japan? These countries economic systems are at risk just like any other country that holds large amounts of our debt compared to their economy. All countries will be affected, and their currencies shall fail, meaning their political system is destroyed as well, or they will hyper inflate, with almost as many political dire consequences.

Subject: Re: Derivatives and Systemic Risk From: Pete Weis To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 19:35:40 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Wow! This is a lot to digest! Didn't think very many of the truely wealthy had mortgages to begin with, so the reduction or the removal of the mortgage tax deduction effects mostly the middle class which is consistant with the actions of the Bush administration.

Subject: Proposition 13 From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 21:17:28 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Pete - california stopped taxing the property owners and taxed the wages and income - the henry george people think this was a travesty - I know many lackluster tech companies make money from the buildings they own and rent out to newer blood - providing no other real USE to society eh? Anyways this goes along with the derivatives blogger - the political will can only 'borrow and spend' http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/10/23/BUGEMFCA5N1.DTL&type=business 'Borrow and spend' state's answer to budget Until Californians can agree, bond rating will be stuck at the bottom of the charts Tom Abate, Chronicle Staff Writer Sunday, October 23, 2005 California boasts one of the world's largest economies, but the state's reputation is tarnished by a tax system that is often volatile, by a budget process that tends toward gridlock and by a habit of borrowing when it can't balance the books. All of which helps explain why California has the lowest bond rating of the 50 states -- a dubious distinction it might soon surrender to Louisiana, which can blame its predicament on natural -- not politically inflicted -- causes. 'Five years ago, California had about $26 billion of tax-supported debt,' said Richard Raphael, public finance expert at Fitch Ratings, a New York firm that evaluates the credit risks of bonds. 'Today, it's about $54 billion.' As voters prepare to go to the polls in a special election billed by supporters as the next step toward restoring fiscal discipline, the experts who rate state debt for Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service tell similar tales of how California sank to the bottom of the borrowing barrel. All three rating agencies have begun to upgrade the state's credit score. They say Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Democratic-controlled state Legislature have taken baby steps toward fiscal reform. Even so, they say recent history shows how the state tax code, coupled with the state's fractious politics, has turned California politicians into debtoholics. 'They're going to have to come to terms and either lower spending or raise taxes, and they haven't done it,'' said S&P California analyst David Hitchcock. 'That's why it's the lowest-rated state.' Proposition 13, passed in 1978, limited the growth of revenue from property taxes. That made California more dependent on income and sales taxes, which can swing sharply with the economy. Localities, not the state, collect property taxes. But the state budget is affected by limitations on property taxes because it picks up part of the spending burden cities and counties can no longer afford to shoulder. Financial experts say the current mess began during the dot-com boom, when the state's progressive tax code -- meaning higher rates on higher incomes -- harvested a windfall thanks to the capital gains and stock options that enriched many Californians. Fitch's Raphael said the state collected $44 billion in personal income taxes in 2001. Lawmakers raised spending during the flush and set little or nothing aside in reserves. Then the bubble burst. In 2002, income tax revenues plunged 25 percent to $33 billion. That $11 billion drop at a time of elevated spending opened the yawning deficit Schwarzenegger inherited when he replaced former Gov. Gray Davis in the recall election of 2003. Then, said Robin Rappaport, municipal bond expert with the Payden & Rygel investment firm in Los Angeles, Schwarzenegger dug the state about $4 billion deeper into the hole. Upon taking office, he kept a campaign pledge and rescinded the so-called car tax -- the 200 percent increase in vehicle license fees his predecessor had pushed through to help ease the deficit. 'It was an effective political tool. But fiscally, it had its costs,'' Rappaport said of Schwarzenegger's move. Schwarzenegger and legislative Democrats have subsequently won improved marks from the bond rating agencies for passing the most recent budget with less acrimony than in prior years and for paying down debt faster than expected. Meanwhile, an improved economy has made tax coffers somewhat flusher than had been expected. Still, California continues to spend more than it collects. Veteran Silicon Valley lawmaker Tom Campbell, on leave from his job as state finance director to help sell Schwarzenegger's ballot measures, said the 2005 budget that his boss signed spent $1.07 for every dollar collected. He said outlays have exceeded revenues every year since 2000. 'This is a systemic problem,'' Campbell said. But observers say that California has been getting hooked on debt for more than a decade. Fred Silva, a senior adviser with the Public Policy Institute of California, said the last time state lawmakers closed a big budget deficit the old-fashioned way was back in 1991-1992, when Republican Gov. Pete Wilson steered tax increases and spending cuts through a Democratic Legislature to help stanch a $14 billion gap. After that, Silva said, lawmakers tried to hold spending flat and used short-term borrowing to paper over smaller, year-to-year deficits until the economic growth boosted tax revenues and brought the state's fiscal picture into balance. 'One group didn't want to cut spending, the other group didn't want to raise taxes,'' Silva said. 'They found that borrowing was a release valve.' When the dot-com boom went bust, the state's political leaders -- still unable to settle the taxes-versus-cutbacks debate -- simply opened the release valve wider. As Standard & Poor's noted in January, 'through 2005, nearly $30 billion of debt will have been issued to help cover state operating expenditures.' Tim Blake, a bond watcher for Moody's, said California compares poorly to peers such as Massachusetts -- another state with a politically divided government and a tax system that registers big swings when income rises or falls. One of California's shortcomings is that in recent years, it simply hasn't put much money away in reserve funds, he said. Brad Williams, director of fiscal forecasting for the California Legislative Analyst's Office said before the passage of Prop. 13, the state used to have reserves, but they became a political target. Leaders in the anti-tax camp wanted overflow funds to be returned to taxpayers. Lawmakers who favored social programs tended to spend any extras. Borrowing became the way to fix problems when revenue swings left the budget in the red. 'We crossed the line initially in the early '90s with borrowing, and then we pushed the envelope further in the early 2000s,'' Williams said. California voters in March 2004 enacted propositions 57 and 58, two related initiatives designed to address the state's current deficit. Prop. 57 authorized the $15 billion bond issue designed to help plug the gap between revenues and outlays. Among other things, Prop. 58 ordered lawmakers to create a reserve fund, starting with a contribution of roughly $900 million in the 2006-2007 budget. In the coming special election, Schwarzenegger wants voters to pass Proposition 76, portraying it as the next step in California's fiscal recovery. The measure would, among other things, limit future state spending to an average of the three previous years' revenues and let the governor cut state spending in an emergency to balance the budget. Democratic state Sen. Don Perata of Oakland said in an interview that he agrees the state needs to break its borrowing habit and make tough budget choices, but called Prop. 76 'a convenient way to avoid having to make hard decisions.' The initiative is being hotly contested. It remains to be seen whether it will pass and, if so, how it will be perceived by California's often-divided electorate. That, say political experts, is the root of the budget crisis -- a general lack of agreement on what the state should spend and what taxes are appropriate. That California is one of very few states that require a two-thirds margin to approve a budget and the same super-majority to raise taxes only worsens the basic divide. 'It's very easy to point the finger at the Legislature and the governor, but ultimately, they're taking their cues from the voters,'' said Mark Baldassare, who conducts periodic opinion surveys for the Public Policy Institute of California. They show a dead split on the tax-versus-spend issue, with the liberal Bay Area and Los Angeles generally willing to boost taxes to support higher services, while the more conservative Orange County, San Diego County and Central Valley preferring cuts. 'Borrowing in the short term has become the way to resolve these impasses,'' Baldassare said.

Subject: Re: Derivatives and Systemic Risk From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 20:54:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There will be no such tax reform. The ideas are absurd and impossible. Republicans wish to be elected again in a year, and will happily not touch mortgage deductions and such. No possibility.

Subject: Refco and Warren From: Johnny5 To: Terri Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 21:35:58 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: I find it continually absurd that bush beat gore, then beat kerry, then through all the scandals continues to increase my level of expectation of what is absurd. Terri both greenspan and warren were concerned with counter party risk and cocentration. Warren says we need oversight of the banking sector - why not also insurance and derivatives? If real estate deflates in the UK, China, the USA, Australia simultaneously - is their truly enought counter parties to absorb it all? http://www.credit-deriv.com/ Regulation Greenspan: 'Except where market discipline is undermined by moral hazard, owing, for example, to federal guarantees of private debt, private regulation generally is far better at constraining excessive risk-taking than is government regulation.' Warren: 'There is no central bank assigned to the job of preventing the dominoes toppling in insurance or derivatives....[Total return swaps and] other types of derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions.' Risk Concentration Greenspan: 'One development that gives me and others some pause is the decline in the number of major derivatives dealers and its potential implications for market liquidity and for concentration of counterparty credit risk.' Warren: 'Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one another.' See: http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=13192854&postID=112154953593035390 Chromatic Dispersion said... The first domino starts to fall. UK and AU will start to draw upon their credit derivatives upon the largest banks in the world. This will lead to drawing down real money to save their banking systems. This action weakens the banking system to other credit bubbles. What the hell am I talking about? This is what I mean. Banks will have to honor their credit derivative by shipping money to these countries. This means their reserves will lower. The more countries that go through housing crashes, the more money is used in this fashion. If too much money is needed then the banks in danger of Counter-Party Fault. Counter-Party Fault is the party owing money on a derivative contract cannot or will not make the required payment. This puts the US housing crash on dangerous new footing. We think we have credit derivative protection. But that is assuming that the counter-party has the money. If Europe and Asia start to crash then, PMI = history FDIC = history GSE’s = history These agencies and insurance will not have the money as promised to bail out either underwater mortgages in the case of PMI, or the income stream in the case of the GSE’s. Welcome to the world of the cascading crisis. You see, it’s all linked. Chromatic Dispersion 2:48 PM Touche, CD. From :http://www.financialpolicy.org/fpfprimermbs.htm 'Most loans are not insured by government agencies like FHA, VA or RHS. These are called conventional mortgages. Private lenders investing in these mortgages often require private mortgage insurance (PMI) if the loan-to-value ratio exceeds 80% (that is, if the home buyer puts down less than 20%). Such insurance can be obtained from a mortgage insurance company (MIC). The MIC industry was created in 1920s but collapsed in the 1930s.' 3:07 PM

Subject: Re: Bernanke From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 16:58:12 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Bernanke will be a fine shaper of monetary policy. How high short or long term interest rates will go in this cycle is not clear, but inflation will certainly be controlled by the Federal Reserve. I would not be surprised to find the 10 year Treasury at about this level in 6 months. Inflation does not worry me, but I would certainly not be buying long term bonds just now.

Subject: Re: Bernanke From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 19:32:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Terri. I think Bernanke is inheriting a multitude of problems - an economy which has the highest debt to GDP ratio in history at over 300% (easily exceding the previous high of 270% in the early 30's) and GDP hasn't even started to fall yet, the biggest run-up in real estate in history coinciding with wage growth less than inflation, and energy costs rising to add to this nasty mix. He's a believer in Milton Friedman's monetary theory and we need to remember that it's still just that - theory. It's now make or break for monetarists - if Bernanke can get this economy to survive the problems I've just listed (and there are other hazards out there) than he should be called the greatest Federal Reserve Chairman of all time, otherwise he may end up being the fall guy. If he's going to have any credibility at all, he needs to put lots of distance between himself and this administration as soon as he takes over! But so far there hasn't been a peep out of him that would indicate he has anything close to the stature of a Paul Volker. We'll see.

Subject: Re: Bernanke From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 20:55:41 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Ben Bernanke hired Paul Krugman. All will be well.

Subject: Behind Gold's Glitter From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 13:29:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/international/24GOLD.html October 24, 2005 Behind Gold's Glitter: Torn Lands and Pointed Questions By JANE PERLEZ and KIRK JOHNSON There has always been an element of madness to gold's allure. For thousands of years, something in the eternally lustrous metal has driven people to the outer edges of desire - to have it and hoard it, to kill or conquer for it, to possess it like a lover. In the early 1500's, King Ferdinand of Spain laid down the priorities as his conquistadors set out for the New World. 'Get gold,' he told them, 'Humanely if possible, but at all costs, get gold.' In that long and tortuous history, gold has now arrived at a new moment of opportunity and peril. The price of gold is higher than it has been in 17 years - pushing $500 an ounce. But much of the gold left to be mined is microscopic and is being wrung from the earth at enormous environmental cost, often in some of the poorest corners of the world. And unlike past gold manias, from the time of the pharoahs to the forty-niners, this one has little to do with girding empires, economies or currencies. It is almost all about the soaring demand for jewelry, which consumes 80 percent or more of the gold mined today. The extravagance of the moment is provoking a storm among environmental groups and communities near the mines, and forcing even some at Tiffany & Company and the world's largest mining companies to confront uncomfortable questions about the real costs of mining gold. 'The biggest challenge we face is the absence of a set of clearly defined, broadly accepted standards for environmentally and socially responsible mining,' said Tiffany's chairman, Michael Kowalski. He took out a full-page advertisement last year urging miners to make 'urgently needed' reforms. Consider a ring. For that one ounce of gold, miners dig up and haul away 30 tons of rock and sprinkle it with diluted cyanide, which separates the gold from the rock. Before they are through, miners at some of the largest mines move a half million tons of earth a day, pile it in mounds that can rival the Great Pyramids, and drizzle the ore with the poisonous solution for years. The scars of open-pit mining on this scale endure. A months-long examination by The New York Times, including tours of gold mines in the American West, Latin America, Africa and Europe, provided a rare look inside an insular industry with a troubled environmental legacy and an uncertain future. Some metal mines, including gold mines, have become the near-equivalent of nuclear waste dumps that must be tended in perpetuity. Hard-rock mining generates more toxic waste than any other industry in the United States, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. The agency estimated last year that the cost of cleaning up metal mines could reach $54 billion. A recent report from the Government Accountability Office chastised the agency and said legal loopholes, corporate shells and weak federal oversight had compounded the costs and increased the chances that mining companies could walk away without paying for cleanups and pass the bill to taxpayers. 'Mining problems weren't considered a very high priority' in past decades, Thomas P. Dunne, the agency's acting assistant administrator for solid waste and emergency response, said in an interview. 'But they are a concern now.' With the costs and scrutiny of mining on the rise in rich countries, where the best ores have been depleted, 70 percent of gold is now mined in developing countries like Guatemala and Ghana. It is there, miners and critics agree, that the real battle over gold's future is being waged. Gold companies say they are bringing good jobs, tighter environmental rules and time-tested technologies to their new frontiers. With the help of the World Bank, they have opened huge mines promising development. Governments have welcomed the investment. But environmental groups say companies are mining in ways that would never be tolerated in wealthier nations, such as dumping tons of waste into rivers, bays and oceans. People who live closest to the mines say they see too few of mining's benefits and bear too much of its burden. In Guatemala and Peru, people have mounted protests to push miners out. Other communities are taking companies to court. This month a Philippine province sued the world's fifth-largest gold company, Canada-based Placer Dome, charging that it had ruined a river, bay and coral reef by dumping enough waste to fill a convoy of trucks that would circle the globe three times. Placer Dome, which also runs three major mines in Nevada, answered by saying that it had 'contained the problem' and already spent $70 million in remediation and another $1.5 million in compensation. Some in the industry have paused to consider whether it is worth the cost - to the environment, their bottom line or their reputations - to mine gold, which generates more waste per ounce than any other metal and yet has few industrial uses. The world's biggest mining company, Australia-based BHP Billiton, sold its profitable Ok Tedi mine in Papua New Guinea in 2001 after having destroyed more than 2,400 acres of rainforest. Upon leaving, the company said the mine was 'not compatible with our environmental values.' After tough lessons, other companies, like Newmont Mining, the world's largest gold producer, are paying for more schools and housing, trying harder to ease social problems around its mines. 'I don't think any of our members want to be associated with a bad operation - notwithstanding it would hurt their ability to open new facilities,' said Carol L. Raulston, spokeswoman for the National Mining Association. 'News goes around the world quickly now and there is no place to hide.' Critics say corporate miners have been cloistered from scrutiny because of their anonymity to consumers, unlike, say, oil companies, which also extract resources but hang their name over the pump. Last year the mine watchdog group Earthworks began a 'No Dirty Gold' campaign, marching protesters in front of fashionable Fifth Avenue storefronts, trying to change gold mining by lobbying gold consumers. 'They just said to ask where the gold was coming from and whether it caused social or environmental damage,' said Michael E. Conroy, senior lecturer and research scholar at the Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. 'The repercussions in the mining media were huge - some said it was all lies, but retailers began to realize what their vulnerability was.' Mr. Kowalski, Tiffany's chairman, has tried to stay ahead of the controversy. He has broken new ground by buying Tiffany's gold from a mine in Utah that does not use cyanide. But the largest sellers of gold are not luxury outlets like his, but rather Wal-Mart stores, and even Mr. Kowalski, a trustee of the Wildlife Conservation Society, hesitated to call any gold entirely 'clean.' Asia's Insatiable Appetite Amrita Raj, a 25-year-old bride, was shopping for her wedding trousseau on a recent Saturday in New Delhi. There was a 'wedding set' to be bought that day, with its requisite gold necklace, matching earrings and two sets of bangles. For the sake of family honor, the new in-laws would have to receive gold gifts as well - a 'light set' for the mother-in-law, plus a gold ring or a watch for the bridegroom, and earrings for a sister-in-law. 'Without gold, it's not a wedding - at least not for Indians,' Ms. Raj said. For thousands of years, gold has lent itself to ceremony and celebration. But now old ways have met new prosperity. The newly moneyed consumers who line the malls of Shanghai and the bazaars of Mumbai sent jewelry sales shooting to a record $38 billion this year, according to the World Gold Council, the industry trade group. Over the last year, sales surged 11 percent in China and 47 percent in India, a country of a billion people whose seemingly insatiable appetite for gold - for jewelry, temples and dowries - has traditionally made it gold's largest consumer. That kind of demand leads many in and out of the industry to argue that gold's value is cultural and should not be questioned. The desire to hoard gold is not limited to households in India or the Middle East, either. The United States, the world's second-largest consumer of gold, is also the world's largest holder of gold reserves. The government has 8,134 tons secured in vaults, about $122 billion worth. The Federal Reserve and other major central banks renewed an agreement last year to severely restrict sales from their reserves, offering, in effect, a price support to gold. That price is not simply a matter of supply and demand, but of market psychology. Gold is bought by anxious investors when the dollar is weak and the economy uncertain. That is a big reason for gold's high price today. For miners that price determines virtually everything - where gold is mined, how much is mined, and how tiny are the flecks worth going after. 'You can mine gold ore at a lower grade than any other metal,' said Mike Wireman, a mine specialist at the Denver office of the E.P.A. 'That means big open pits. But it must also be easy and cheap to be profitable, and that means cyanide.' That kind of massive operation can be seen at Yanacocha, a sprawling mine in northern Peru run by Newmont. In a region of pastures and peasants, the rolling green hills have been carved into sandy-colored mesas, looking more like the American West than the Andean highlands. Mountains have been systematically blasted, carted off by groaning trucks the size of houses and restacked into ziggurats of chunky ore. These new man-made mountains are lined with irrigation hoses that silently trickle millions of gallons of cyanide solution over the rock for years. The cyanide dissolves the gold so it can be separated and smelted. At sites like Yanacocha, one ounce of gold is sprinkled in 30 tons of ore. But to get at that ore, many more tons of earth have to be moved, then left as waste. At some mines in Nevada, 100 tons or more of earth have to be excavated for a single ounce of gold, said Ann Maest, a geochemist who consults on mining issues. Mining companies say they are meeting a demand and that this kind of gold mining, called cyanide heap leaching, is as good a use of the land as any, or better. Cyanide is not the only option. But it is considered the most cost-effective way to retrieve microscopic bits of 'invisible gold.' Profit margins are too thin, miners say, and the gold left in the world too scarce to mine it any other way. 'The heap is cheaper,' said Shannon W. Dunlap, an environmental manager with Placer Dome. 'Our ore wouldn't work without the heap.' But much of those masses of disturbed rock, exposed to the rain and air for the first time, are also the source of mining's multibillion-dollar environmental time bomb. Sulfides in that rock will react with oxygen, making sulfuric acid. That acid pollutes and it also frees heavy metals like cadmium, lead and mercury, which are harmful to people and fish even at low concentrations. The chain reaction can go on for centuries. Many industry officials, reluctant to utter the word pollution, protest that much of what they leave behind is not waste at all but ground-up rock. The best-run mines reclaim land along the way, they say, 'capping' the rock piles with soil and using lime to try to forestall acid generation. But stopping pollution forever is difficult. Even rock piles that are capped, in an attempt to keep out air and rain, can release pollutants, particularly in wet climates. Cyanide can present long-term problems, too. Most scientists agree that cyanide decomposes in sunlight and is not dangerous if greatly diluted. But a study by the United States Geological Survey in 2000 said that cyanide can convert to other toxic forms and persist, particularly in cold climates. And just as cyanide dissolves gold out of the rock, it releases harmful metals, too. There have also been significant accidents involving cyanide. From 1985 to 2000, more than a dozen reservoirs containing cyanide-laden mine waste collapsed, the United Nations Environment Program reported. The most severe disaster occurred in Romania in 2000, when mine waste spilled into a tributary of the Danube River, killing more than a thousand tons of fish and issuing a plume of cyanide that reached 1,600 miles to the Black Sea. That spill led to calls for the gold industry to improve its handling of cyanide. After five years of discussion, the industry unveiled a new code this month. It sets standards for transporting and storing cyanide and calls on companies to submit to inspections by a new industry body. But the cyanide code is voluntary and not enforced by government. And Glenn Miller, a professor of environmental science at the University of Nevada, says it does not adequately deal with one of mining's most important, unattended questions: What happens when the mine closes? A Rocky Mountain Disaster One answer can be found in a rural, rugged area of northeastern Montana called the Little Rocky Mountains. There, Dale Ployhar often comes to the high bare slopes around the abandoned Zortman-Landusky gold mine to plant pine seedlings on a silent hillside that has been reclaimed by little more than grasses. 'I bring lodgepole seeds and scatter them around, hoping they'll come back,' he said, looking out over the tiny town of Zortman, population 50. Zortman-Landusky was the first large-scale, open-pit cyanide operation in the United States when it opened in 1979. The imprint it left on the environment, psyche and politics of Montana continues today. What happened there - a cacophonous, multilayered disaster involving bankruptcy, bad science, environmental havoc and regulatory gaps - foreshadowed the risky road that gold has taken in the years since, mining experts, government regulators and environmentalists say. 'There's a lot of bitterness left,' said Mr. Ployhar, 65, a heavy equipment operator, whose son bought some of the mine lands at a bankruptcy auction four years ago. Some mining experts say that Zortman-Landusky - a combination of two open pits near Zortman and the neighboring village of Landusky - offered a steep learning curve on how chemical mining worked, and didn't. Others say that overly ambitious production schedules by the mine's owner, Pegasus Gold, based in Canada, were to blame. A bonus package of more than $5 million for top executives, announced after the company filed for bankruptcy protection in 1998, did not help. Mining with cyanide can be tricky even in the best conditions. At Zortman, the company made the mistake of building their cyanide heaps atop rock that turned acidic. The cyanide and the acid mixed in a toxic cocktail that seeped from the mounds. Mining stopped in 1996, and company officials insisted in their public comments over the next year that they wanted to be responsible corporate citizens and stay to clean up the property. But the price of gold was falling, then below $280 an ounce, and Pegasus closed its doors. 'This became one of the worst cases in Montana,' said Wayne E. Jepson, manager of the Zortman project at the Montana Department of Environmental Quality. 'But even as late as 1990, one of the last studies for Landusky predicted no acid in any significant amounts.' Environmental risks from hard-rock mines often turn out to be understated and underreported, according to two recent studies. Robert Repetto, an economist at the University of Colorado, examined 10 mines in the United States and abroad run by publicly traded companies. All but one, he wrote in a June report, had failed to fully disclose 'risks and liabilities' to investors. The environmental group Earthworks examined 22 mines for a report it will publish in November. Almost all of them had water problems, leading it to conclude that 'water quality impacts are almost always underestimated' before mining begins. 'The combination of the regulatory approach and the science is what creates inaccurate predictions,' said James R. Kuipers, a consultant and former mining engineer, one of the authors of the study. At Zortman-Landusky, the state wrote the environmental impact study itself, based primarily on information from the company, Mr. Kuipers said. Montana and other big mining states still often depend on mining companies for much of the scientific data about environmental impact, or the money to pay for the studies, state and federal regulators say, mainly because government agencies generally lack the resources to do expensive, in-depth research themselves. Some mine regulators defend the practice, saying that having scientific data supplied by companies with a financial interest in the outcome is not necessarily bad if the review is stringent. 'What is important to make the system work is that state and federal agencies have the wherewithal and expertise to look at the information,' said Mr. Wireman of the Denver E.P.A. office. But one lesson of Zortman is that good information is sometimes ignored. In the early 1990's, an E.P.A. consultant and former mining engineer, Orville Kiehn, warned in a memo to his bosses that not enough money was being set aside by the mine for water treatment. Mr. Kiehn's opinion, vindicated today, went nowhere. The environmental agency had little legal authority then - and no more today - to protect the public from an operating mine except by filing a lawsuit, as it did in 1995 after Pegasus had already violated federal clean water standards. The company settled the suit in 1996 and agreed to pay $32.3 million mostly to upgrade and expand water treatment. At the time, state officials rejected the idea of squeezing Pegasus to put up more money. This spring, Montana's legislature created a special fund for water treatment to make up for it, for the next 120 years, at a cost of more than $19 million. Washington is also coming to grips with the failure to plan for the cost of mining. The Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress, sharply criticized the E.P.A. in August for not requiring metal mines to provide assurances that they can pay for cleanups, a failure that it said had exposed taxpayers to potentially billions of dollars in liabilities. For Montana, the Zortman experience was chilling. In 1998, as the catastrophe was making headlines across the state, voters approved the nation's first statewide ban on cyanide mining, halting any new gold projects. They renewed the ban last year. Profit and Poverty Today gold companies are striking out to remote corners of the globe led by a powerful guide: the World Bank. The bank, the pre-eminent institution for alleviating world poverty, has argued that multinational mining companies would bring investment, as well as roads, schools and jobs, to countries with little else to offer than their natural resources. For the bank, which tries to draw private investment to underdeveloped lands, the logic was simple. 'We invest to help reduce poverty and help improve people's lives,' said Rashad-Rudolf Kaldany, head of oil, gas and mining at the bank's profit-making arm, the International Finance Corporation. The bank has worked both ends of the equation. At its urging, more than 100 cash-strapped governments have agreed to cut taxes and royalties to lure big mining companies, said James Otto, an adjunct professor at the University of Denver law school. At the same time, the bank put up money for or insured more than 30 gold-mining projects, looking for profits. Though mining was a small part of the bank's portfolio, it was not without controversy as accidents mounted. In one of the worst disasters, in 1995, a mine in Guyana insured by the bank spilled more than 790,000 gallons of cyanide-laced mine waste into a tributary of the Essequibo River, the country's main water source. By 2001, the World Bank president, James D. Wolfensohn, imposed a two-year moratorium on mining investments and ordered a review of its involvement in the industry. Emil Salim, a former minister of environment of Indonesia, led the study. 'I said, up to now the International Finance Corporation was only listening to business,' he said in an interview in Jakarta. 'I said, so now let's give some voice to civil society.' Mr. Salim recommended reducing the use of cyanide, banning the disposal of waste in rivers and oceans, and giving communities veto power over mining company plans. But the industry complained. And developing country governments said they liked the bank's loans to gold mines. In the end, the bank settled on more modest goals. It pledged to make environmental impact statements understandable to villagers and to back only projects with broad community support. It also urged governments to spend mining companies' taxes and royalties in the communities near the mines. But critics and environmental groups say the bank demands little from the mining companies in return for its money and its seal of approval. The bank's guidelines for arsenic in drinking water are less stringent than those of the World Health Organization, and mercury contamination levels are more lenient than those permitted by the E.P.A., said Andrea Durbin, a consultant to nongovernmental groups pressing for tougher standards. The International Finance Corporation is drafting new guidelines that will clarify what it expects from miners, said Rachel Kyte, its director of environment and social development. But the draft rules give mining companies even more latitude, said Manish Bapna, the executive director of the Bank Information Center, a group that monitors the bank. They will make it easier for companies to evict indigenous people and to mine in some of the globe's most treasured habitats, he said. Despite the World Bank's two-year review, little has changed, said Robert Goodland, a former director of environment at the bank who was an adviser on the study. 'The bank insists on business as usual,' he said. Resistance in Guatemala The first piece of new mining business the bank invested in after its review can be found today in the humid, green hills of western Guatemala. Bishop Alvaro Ramazzini, a big burly man who mixes politics and religion with ease, doesn't understand why the World Bank lent $45 million to a rich multinational company for a gold mine in his impoverished region of Mayan farmers. 'Why not spend the money directly to help the people?' he asked. Sprawled across a deep wooded valley, a new mine built by Glamis Gold, a Canadian company, was chosen by the World Bank last year as a new model for how gold mining could help poor people. But the mine has faced protest at every turn. At the June 2004 board meeting of the International Finance Corporation, there was considerable skepticism about its $45 million loan to Glamis. Members questioned why a $261 million project was creating only 160 long-term jobs and giving money to a 'well capitalized' company like Glamis at all, according to minutes of the meeting provided to The Times by a nongovernmental group opposed to the project. Others were worried that the I.F.C. was relying too heavily on information from Glamis about the potential for pollution. The World Bank had pledged to back only mines with broad local support. But on the ground in Guatemala, opposition boiled over last December. Angry farmers set up a roadblock to stop trailers carrying huge grinding machines for the mine. After 40 days, and battles between police and protesters, the equipment had to be escorted by soldiers. To persuade the villagers of the mine's benefits, Glamis flew 19 planeloads of farmers to a mine it runs in Honduras. But the villagers of Sipicapa still wanted their voices heard. On a cool Saturday morning in June, more than 2,600 men and women dressed in their weekend best, with children in tow, crowded into the community's yards, churches and verandas to vote in a nonbinding referendum. 'We are already regretting that our forefathers allowed the Spaniards to buy our land for trinkets and mirrors,' said Fructuoso L�pez P�rez, a local mayor. 'So we should vote so our children will thank us for doing right.' At that, a church full of local people raised their hands in a unanimous show of opposition to the mine. Much of the peasants' fury was informed by Robert E. Moran, an American hydrogeologist, who was asked by Madre Selva, a Guatemalan nongovernmental organization, to visit the mine and review its environmental impact statement. Mr. Moran, who was on the advisory board of the bank's mining study, found it badly lacking. It did not address the 'very large quantities of water' the mine would use, or give basic information on the 'massive volumes' of waste the mine would produce, he said. Tim Miller, vice president of Central American operations for Glamis, said the environmental impact statement had been a 'working document.' In Guatemala City, the Vice Minister of Mining, Jorge Antonio Garc�a Chiu, defended approval of the mine, saying it followed four months of consultation. Mr. Kaldany, the I.F.C. official, said the investment and the environmental impact statement were both sound. 'We are a bank,' he said. 'We go on the basis of a business development project. Then, as well, the bank asks: Are we needed? Are we adding any value?' Glamis had already spent $1.3 million on social programs in the villages as part of the bank's requirements, Mr. Kaldany said. At the mine, the grinding and churning of new machinery being tested already echoes across the valley. Production could begin as early as November. Mr. Miller, of Glamis, said the mine was a winner for the people, and his company. In fact, he said, Glamis didn't need the bank, the bank came to Glamis. Bank officials 'were anxious to make some investments' in the region, he said. The company is expecting to gross $1 billion over the life of the mine, with profits of $200 to $300 million. 'That's a return of about 25 to 30 percent,' he said. Ghana: The Social Costs The men of Binsre on Ghana's ancient Gold Coast carry on their own hunt for gold. Nearly naked, their arms and legs slathered in gray ooze, they sift through the muck in a large pit, using buckets and hard hats, looking for any last scrap. So far industrial mining has not lived up to its promise for these men and their families. They are illegal miners who find work not inside the highly mechanized mines of Ghana's first-world investors, but on the fringes, scavenging the waste left behind by AngloGold Ashanti, the world's second-largest gold company, based in South Africa. Six miners have died in the last several years, most of them overcome by fumes when waste from the mine gushed into the pit, said Hannah Owusu-Koranteng, an advocate for the illegal miners. The mine tried to keep the men out. 'We used to use dogs,' said AngloGold Ashanti's chief financial officer, Kwaku Akosah-Bempah. 'Then they said we were using dogs to bite them.' So the mine stopped using the dogs and the men returned. In the nearby village of Sanso, a few men said they had lost their land to the mine. Now they carve shafts into a mountain of waste rock, where they haul, hammer, chip and sift. 'You wake up one day and you realize your farm is destroyed,' said Assemblyman Benjamin Annan, a local politician. 'They say they will compensate but it takes one or two years. So people are compelled to go to illegal mining, the way our ancestors did.' Industrial-size shaft mining has existed in Ghana for 100 years, but with the price of gold soaring, more companies are arriving now, this time bringing open-pit cyanide mines. The investment has been greeted warmly by the government. Newmont is set to spend a billion dollars on a new mine next year and on a second mine - in one of the badly deforested country's last remaining forest preserves - in 2007. The World Bank is here, too, preparing to lend the company $75 million. Together, the bank and Newmont say, they aim to show how social development and gold mining can be married. Newmont compensated the farmers who were moved off their land. It is offering training for new jobs, like growing edible snails and making soap. It built new concrete and tin-roofed houses to replace homes made of mud. But the mine will create just 450 full-time jobs. More than 8,000 people will be displaced. 'The house is O.K.,' said Gyinabu Ali, 35, a divorced mother of five children, who recently moved into her gaily painted two-room house, with a toilet out back, that overlooks several dozen similar units resembling a poor man's Levittown. 'I miss my land where I could grow my own food.' Near the mine of Newmont's competitor, AngloGold Ashanti, in Obuasi, only half of the homes have an indoor bathroom, and 20 percent have running water. With the exception of the brick villas of the company executives, Obuasi today looks like a vast and squalid shanty town. The chief financial officer, Mr. Akosah-Bempah, said he was offended by the poor conditions. Most of the company's taxes and royalties had stayed in the capital, he said, leaving the ramshackle town bereft of the benefits of gold mining. 'Sometimes we feel embarrassed by going to Obuasi,' he said. 'Not enough has gone back into the community.'

Subject: Re: Behind Gold's Glitter From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Oct 25, 2005 at 18:05:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Interesting article. Gold mining has by tradition always been shaft mining, not open cast. Intriguing to see that there is so much open cast activity. This looks like a Gold rush. Here is a question though: - mining employs literally thousands of people at a go. I remember when one of the Anglo Gold mines closed down, they laid off 12,000 people and this was for a relatively small mine. What a weird situation - if the economics works, thousands of low skilled people are employed but the environment is devastated. If the economics does not work, thousands of people are placed in poverty and misery but the environment survives and prospers. What do we do? It appears the shear existance of human beings is a detriment to the environment.

Subject: Re: Behind Gold's Glitter From: Pete Weis To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 15:01:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'And unlike past gold manias, from the time of the pharoahs to the forty-niners, this one has little to do with girding empires, economies or currencies. It is almost all about the soaring demand for jewelry, which consumes 80 percent or more of the gold mined today.'.......................... 'That price is not simply a matter of supply and demand, but of market psychology. Gold is bought by anxious investors when the dollar is weak and the economy uncertain. That is a big reason for gold's high price today.' Agree very much with the main point of this article - the environmental hazards of mining. It may not be nearly the environmental hazard of emissions that seem to be changing global weather patterns, but it certainly is a serious concern in the local areas where the mining takes place. However, the two contradicting paragraphs with which I started this post seem to point to the confusion as to why gold has been steadily rising. The first states that the rise has been 'almost entirely' due to the 'soaring demand for jewelry' and nothing to do with 'economies and currencies'. The second paragraph states that the combination of a 'weak dollar' and 'uncertain economy' is a 'big reason for gold's high price today'. The price of gold has been rising steadily now for over three years where it started around $250 per oz. When the rise in price started, the US economy was being bailed out by a huge economic stimulus package as the stock markets around the world were tumbling in sympathy with the US markets. Demand for US dollar denominated assets was tumbling with the markets. So, while jewelry demand may have added to this year's run-up it has much more to do with demand for dollar assets. Gold hit a recent low during this last May and even rising jewelry demand in the first half of 2005 couldn't stop the gold slump. However, slumping US stock markets during the last 3 months, worsening outlook for the US fiscal deficit, and reduced treasury purchases by overseas central banks have had the most to do with rising gold prices vs the dollar. Most global gold mining is done in economically disadvantaged areas and stopping or slowing it is similar to attempting to eradicate cocaine or heroine production overseas. The best way to accomplish both is to reduce or eliminate demand since we can not effectively control what happens in other countries. For gold that means taking steps to strengthen the dollar such as eradicating or reducing our fiscal deficit and current account deficit. Reducing the fiscal deficit requires getting rid of the Bush tax cuts as well as making some fairly heavy spending cuts. Reducing the current account deficit means having an energy policy which includes a very aggressive governmental program to reduce energy consumption and aggressive incentives to develop alternative energy sources which would substantially lower our need to import oil, natural gas, etc. This incidently would go a long way to reduce global emissions. The rising price of gold is telling us that there is trouble with the dollar and our economy.

Subject: Zero Interest Rate From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 18:36:32 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Mosler over at www.mosler.org and the other soft currency economists there have talked about our financial economy causing a delay in addressing our energy concerns with its disconnect from reality. Several of his papers at the site advocate zero interest rate policy - now if I understand properly our Fed is going to inflation target from here on out like they do in europe and to not fall into Japans trap - we will always shoot for 1-3% inflation. I cannot help but keep remembering warrens warning.

Subject: Wal-Mart to Expand Health Plan From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 13:26:13 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/business/24mart.html October 24, 2005 Wal-Mart to Expand Health Plan for Workers By MICHAEL BARBARO Wal-Mart, which has long been criticized for the benefits it offers to its workers, is introducing a cheaper health insurance plan, with monthly premiums as low as $11, that the company hopes will greatly increase the number of its employees who can afford coverage. Jumping into a new area, Wal-Mart is also offering health savings accounts, which the federal government introduced last year. Few employers offer them. The new benefits, which Wal-Mart calls the Value Plan, follow years of complaints that at Wal-Mart, the nation's largest employer, health insurance is out of reach for many of its 1.2 million workers in the United States, forcing thousands of them to turn to state-sponsored programs or forgo health coverage altogether. 'We are lowering the costs to make health insurance more affordable,' said a Wal-Mart spokesman, Dan Fogleman, who declined to comment on how much the plan would cost the company. Asked if the new insurance plan was in response to growing criticism, he said, 'It's fair to say we are listening, but more so to our associates than anyone else.' Health insurance specialists generally praised the new plan, saying its lower premiums were likely to attract more employees and thereby reduce the ranks of the uninsured. They also noted, however, that the plan's $1,000 deductible would be high for Wal-Mart workers, particularly older employees who are likely to visit doctors more often, and might not cover expensive treatments, particularly in its first year. While the company has not yet formally announced the changes, workers have been given details to enroll in the plan starting in 2006, and Wal-Mart's chief executive, H. Lee Scott Jr. will discuss it in an address to company employees this morning. Currently, fewer than half of Wal-Mart's workers are covered by company health insurance, compared with more than 80 percent at Costco, its leading competitor. The company declined to estimate how many additional workers would be covered under the new plan. The changes will be closely watched by Wall Street and Wal-Mart investors, who will want to know how the company can afford to offer lower-priced benefits at a time when soaring health care costs are pinching profits across the country. Wal-Mart said that under the plan, monthly premiums would cost between 40 percent and 60 percent less than those for any existing Wal-Mart insurance policy, and that individuals could visit a doctor three times before paying a deductible, an arrangement aimed at encouraging workers to seek preventive care. In the past, workers have had to pay a deductible before their insurance kicked in. Those who participate will pay a $1,000 deductible, the maximum under Wal-Mart's insurance for 2005. Monthly premiums will be, on average, less than $25 for an individual, $37 for a single parent and $65 for a family. The $11 premium, for individuals, will be available in a handful of areas, Mr. Fogleman said. But the plan is unlikely to cover a complicated illness or expensive hospital stay during the first year, when there is a $25,000 insurance cap. (The cap is lifted for the second year.) Out-of-pocket payments range from $300 for prescriptions to $1,000 for hospital stays. The company's health savings accounts will combine low monthly premiums with a requirement that individuals cover a substantial part of their own health care costs. Given its size, Wal-Mart's endorsement of the concept may prompt other companies to re-evaluate the accounts. Several health insurance specialists questioned whether the company, which is working to burnish its public image, was trying to quickly increase the number of workers who use its health insurance at the expense of the coverage's quality. 'Is it the greatest health care plan in the world? Probably not,' said Howard Berliner, a professor of health policy at the New School for Social Research. 'But my concern is getting people health insurance so they can get health care when they need it. In that sense, anything that speeds that goal is for the better.' Uwe E. Reinhardt, a health economist at Princeton University, said that by allowing workers several visits to the doctor before requiring them to pay out of pocket, Wal-Mart had 'removed a big financial barrier between doctors and patients,' adding that critics 'would have trouble attacking this plan.' But analysts cautioned that the new insurance plan would prove a better fit for workers who are young and healthy than those who are older and more vulnerable to illness. A 60-year-old Wal-Mart employee, they noted, might visit a doctor three times in a one month and then need to pay $1,000 before the company would share the cost of care. Given that many Wal-Mart employees are paid less than $19,000 a year, the deductible 'is pretty significant,' said Charles N. Kahn, president of the Federation of American Hospitals. Tracy Sefl, a spokeswoman for Wal-Mart Watch, a coalition of community groups that has been highly critical of the retailer, had not seen details of the plan, but said that 'a plan that is characterized as a healthy person's plan doesn't fully address the needs of a majority of their work force.' Ms. Sefl said the introduction of health savings accounts, which allow workers to make tax-deductible payments to a health care fund, was largely impractical for the chain's employees. 'The majority of their work force will not be well positioned to contribute,' she said. Even as they commended Wal-Mart for offering a more affordable health insurance plan, some industry watchers expressed surprise that the company waited as long as it did to offer a more affordable option. 'We have a health care system in this county that assumes people will be covered by their employer,' said Mr. Kahn. 'If the biggest employer in the country isn't providing some kind of affordable and meaningful coverage, that is a problem.'

Subject: For Blacks, a Dream in Decline From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 13:25:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/weekinreview/23uchi.html?ex=1287720000&en=6032fcd106abbd75&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 23, 2005 For Blacks, a Dream in Decline By LOUIS UCHITELLE THE Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. set forth the goal. Civil rights and union membership were to be intertwined. The labor movement, Dr. King wrote in 1958, 'must concentrate its powerful forces on bringing economic emancipation to white and Negro by organizing them together in social equality.' That happened in the 1960's and 1970's. But then unions lost bargaining power and members. And while labor leaders called attention to the overall decline, few took notice that blacks were losing much more ground than whites. In the last five years, that trend accelerated. Despite a growing economy, the number of African-Americans in unions has fallen by 14.4 percent since 2000, while white membership is down 5.4 percent. For a while in the 1980's, one out of every four black workers was a union member; now it is closer to one in seven. This loss of better-paying jobs helps to explain why blacks are doing worse than any other group in the current recovery. Labor leaders have acknowledged the disproportionate damage to African-Americans, but they decline to make special efforts to organize blacks and offset the decrease, saying that all groups need help. That lack of priority angers one prominent black scholar. 'The future of black workers is very bleak indeed if they lose their place in the union movement,' said William Julius Wilson, a professor of sociology and social policy at Harvard. 'I would hope there would be an effort on the part of union leaders, white and black, to address this very important issue. They haven't done so as yet.' The decline was particularly sharp last year. Overall union membership fell by 304,000, and blacks accounted for 55 percent of that drop, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, even though whites outnumber blacks six to one in unions (12.4 million to 2.1 million). The trend seems likely to continue and perhaps accelerate as General Motors and its principal parts supplier, Delphi, cut costs in their struggle to be profitable. 'We have lost 20,000 members since the end of 2000 in Detroit and its suburbs alone,' said Linda Ewing, director of research for the United Auto Workers, 'and a large number of the workers in the auto and parts plants in this area are black.' Unions, like other institutions in the post-World War II economy, were slow to admit African-Americans to the club, and there is still resistance today in some of the higher-paying skilled trades. Yet blacks came to rely on unions even more than working class whites did to gain entry into the middle class, through jobs that gave them annual wage increases and company-paid health insurance and pensions. Even now, the percentage of black workers who are in unions is slightly greater than the percentage of unionized white workers: 15.1 versus 12.2. 'Every survey shows that blacks are the group that most wants to be unionized,' said Richard Freeman, a Harvard labor economist. Immigration, retirement, automation, the shifting of work overseas, low seniority and privatization have all played a role in the lopsided decline of unionized jobs held by African-Americans. That decline is especially noticeable in manufacturing and the federal government, two strongholds of black employment that have gone through cutbacks in union workers in recent years. The cutbacks are particularly severe in the auto industry. In addition to the latest problems at G.M., Ford Motor said Thursday that it would soon announce 'significant plant closings.' The impact on blacks has gradually drawn the attention of labor leaders, including John J. Sweeney, president of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. 'The percentage of black workers who have been knocked out of union jobs is one of the little-known tragedies of the last five years,' he said. Despite this damage, the federation is not making a special effort to sign up more African-Americans in other industries, Mr. Sweeney said. 'We are going to be organizing more blacks,' he explained, 'but we are also going to be organizing more Latinos and more women.' Mr. Sweeney's reluctance to single out blacks has its counterpart in the breakaway union movement, Change to Win, which promises more aggressive organizing. Rather than focus on any particular group of workers, said Edgar Romney, secretary-treasurer of the new coalition, 'we are targeting industries and communities in our organizing effort.' Blue-collar workers earn high pay in manufacturing jobs, and the sharp decline in black union membership in that sector has helped to pull down the median weekly wage of all black workers, union and nonunion alike. Thus far this year, the median weekly wage earned by blacks fell by 5 percent, to $523, adjusted for inflation, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Whites as a group are also experiencing a drop in their median weekly wage, but for them the decline this year is less than 1 percent, to $677, adjusted for inflation. Some labor economists bridle at such comparisons. Robert Topel of the University of Chicago argues that for many years the wage gap between whites and blacks either shrank or remained stable, after adjusting for differences in education, experience and other factors. This occurred even as union power declined, he said. 'If you ask me for a list of things that would be more important in understanding racial disparities and economic success, unionism would not be high on the list,' Mr. Topel said. 'Education, development of skills and family environment all play much bigger roles than collective bargaining power.' The decline in black union membership is not simply the result of the erosion of employment in manufacturing. The Service Employees International Union, for example, represented for years large numbers of African-Americans employed in food service, janitorial work and nursing home care. Many were women. As they retired, Hispanics and Asians replaced them, in the jobs and as union members, said Patricia Ford, a former executive vice president of the S.E.I.U. 'You can see the change from what was traditionally African-American to Hispanic,' Ms. Ford said. 'That is the most striking.' Union membership among Hispanics, in fact, has risen gradually in this decade, to 1.7 million last year. That is partly a result of special efforts to organize Hispanics in service industries, Mr. Romney said. On another front, privatization and outsourcing have eaten away at federal employment of black workers represented by the American Federation of Government Employees, which says that nearly 25 percent of its 211,000 members are black. African-Americans make up an even higher percentage of the union's members at the operations that the Bush administration is turning over to private contractors. These include laundries at veterans' hospitals, ground maintenance and food service at government installations and security guards at numerous federal buildings - much of it work that paid only $15,000 to $20,000 a year, but that came with pensions and health insurance. The union's leaders resist viewing what is happening in racial terms. 'We see it as a class issue rather than a race issue,' said Sharon Pinnock, the A.F.G.E.'s director for membership and organization. 'It is impacting all workers, black and white.' Automation at the Postal Service, mainly in the form of sorting machines that require many fewer workers, has cut into the ranks of the National Association of Letter Carriers and the American Postal Workers Union, both with high percentages of blacks among their members. And then there is the tendency of many corporations to move operations to suburbs from downtown locations. In the process, unionized African-American workers are often replaced by nonunion workers, in many cases white. The Communications Workers of America makes that complaint, citing customer service call center operations as one example. 'They gradually move to the suburbs, eliminating African-American union members in the city,' said George Kohl, the union's senior director of collective bargaining. Mr. Sweeney said such stories anger him. 'We have learned a lot from the civil rights movement; it is important that we highlight the most egregious offenses,' he said. 'But we have to focus on all the workers who are getting hurt.'

Subject: Show Me the Money From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 06:47:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/opinion/24warren.html October 24, 2005 Show Me the Money By ELIZABETH WARREN IS there celebration in the halls of Citibank this week? Is MBNA uncorking the Champagne while Ford Motor Credit serves cake? Eleven years ago, these and other creditors pushed hard to re-elect sympathetic members of Congress who would enact a tougher bankruptcy law. Last Monday, the law they lobbied for went into effect. It was a long fight - President Bill Clinton vetoed one bill, anti-abortion forces derailed another - but in the end the credit industry succeeded in making it much harder for struggling families to ease their debt loads. The industry helped fend off efforts to soften the bankruptcy bill's impact on soldiers fighting overseas and on victims of natural disasters. It even turned thumbs down on an amendment to limit enforcement of debts that carried more than 100 percent interest. But is the new bankruptcy law now set in stone? Is Congress that rigid, the financial industry that strong? In a free-market economy, bankruptcy laws are written and rewritten as new economic problems bubble to the surface. Today, consumers and small businesses that have been swamped by debt are in the crosshairs. Tomorrow, insurance company failures, a collapse of the mortgage-lending market, or another outrageous story of a Wall Street executive who hung onto a fortune while seeking shelter in bankruptcy may excite Congressional attention. Even as the new law goes into effect, there are six new bankruptcy bills pending in Congress, three of them responding to the recent hurricanes. Others are sure to follow: Several members of Congress have railed against the airlines' use of bankruptcy to write off their pension obligations, for example. The first draft of the new bankruptcy law was written in the mid-1990's by lobbyists for the credit industry. As they explain, they then 'shopped' the bill to friends in Congress who advanced it. 'It is rare to find such clear evidence of the effects of money' in Washington politics, Howard Rosenthal, a Princeton economist, and co-author Stephen Nunez wrote in 2002 of the progress of the bankruptcy amendments. But though the lobbyists, public relations gurus and consumer lenders can change the laws, that won't change the underlying economic reality - or pay the bills. Academic research shows that about half the families in bankruptcy filings have serious medical problems. Two-thirds of those who file have lost a job or a small business. Twenty percent have just suffered a family breakup - a husband who disappeared, a wife who died, a family separated by long distances. Many have sustained multiple hits: illness and a layoff, divorce and business failure. Because of the hurricanes, in the next few years, bankruptcies in Louisiana and Mississippi are likely to grow at a rate that is about 50 percent faster than in the rest of the country. And when the crisis passes - when debtors get back to work or sweep the muck out of their homes - they will still face a mountain of bills and a ferocious onslaught by collection agencies. If those in such straits can't find a way to get current on their debts quickly, they'll face foreclosure on their homes, repossession of the cars they need to get to work and morning-to-night debt collection calls. Punishing debtors this way won't put money in creditors' pockets. Creditors who planned to reap windfalls from this new law may be sorely disappointed as they discover that their lobbyists promised more than they can deliver. And if the bankruptcy system becomes unworkable for both debtors and creditors, pressure will build for change. Sometime soon, politicians will realize that those who find themselves in bankruptcy are solidly middle-class people who have been to college, married and bought houses. This year, about 300,000 will be small-business owners who want a chance to try again. Married couples with children will be about twice as likely to file as those with no children, and single parents will be about four times more likely than those with no dependents at home. Families caring for elderly relatives are also at special risk. These are hard-working people who have been laid low by forces far beyond their control. They are the constituents of the politicians who took the credit industry's side over theirs. The new bankruptcy laws will surely squeeze some people harder, and they may well improve short-term corporate profits. But those laws won't solve the underlying problems of unemployment, inadequate health insurance or failing small businesses. They won't stop hurricanes or floods. And because those problems aren't going away any time soon, the need to restore common sense to the bankruptcy system will not go away either. The industry should enjoy its cake and Champagne today. It won't last forever. Elizabeth Warren, a professor at Harvard Law School, is the co-author of 'The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Mothers and Fathers Are Going Broke.'

Subject: Health Insurance Is No Safeguard From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 06:46:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/national/23PATIENT.html?ex=1287720000&en=c27be5e05268c0fd&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 23, 2005 When Even Health Insurance Is No Safeguard By JOHN LELAND CAMBY, Ind. - Until the fourth trip to the hospital in 1998, Zachery Dorsett's parents thought their son was an average child who was having trouble getting over a passing illness. He was 7 months old, and it was his second case of pneumonia. The Dorsetts, Sharon and Arnold, were concerned about Zachery's health, but they were not worried about the financial consequences. They were a young, middle-income couple, with health insurance that covered 90 percent of doctors' bills and most of the costs of prescription drugs. Then the bills started coming in. After a week in the hospital, the couple's share came to $1,100 - not catastrophic, but more than their small savings. They enrolled in a 90-day payment plan with the hospital and struggled to make the monthly installments of nearly $400, hoping that they did not hit any other expenses. But Zachery, who was eventually found to have an immune system disorder, kept getting sick, and the expense of his treatment - fees for tests, hospitalizations, medicine - kept mounting, eventually costing the family $12,000 to $20,000 a year. Earlier this year, the Dorsetts stopped making mortgage payments on their ranch house, in a subdivision outside Indianapolis, because they could not afford them. In March, they filed for bankruptcy. 'Zach was really mad at us when we told him we were going to lose the house,' Mrs. Dorsett said. 'We told him we had to make a choice: whether to pay for medical bills or the house.' She added: 'I didn't want the kids to hate their father for working all the time, but I also didn't want them to think we were irresponsible. I was worried about Zach feeling guilty or his sister blaming him that she has to leave her friends. But whatever we gave up is a small price to pay for his health.' Never have patients had so many medical options to extend, enrich or alter their lives. But these new options are expensive, and with them has come a change for which many Americans - even those with health insurance - are financially ill prepared. After decades in which private and government insurance covered a progressively larger share of medical expenses, insurance companies are now shifting more costs to consumers, in the form of much higher deductibles, co-payments or premiums. At the same time, Americans are saving less and carrying higher levels of household debt, and even insured families are exposed to medical expenses that did not exist a decade ago. Many, like the Dorsetts, do not realize how vulnerable they are until the bills arrive. Lawyers and accountants say that for the more than 1.5 million American families who filed for bankruptcy protection last year, the most common causes were job loss and medical expenses. New bankruptcy legislation, which went into effect Oct. 17, requires middle-income debtors to repay a greater share of their debt. The Fight for Solvency The Dorsetts' filing came after years of accumulating relatively modest bills, often just co-payments on doctor visits or prescriptions. Almost since Zachery's birth, they had finished each year with more credit card debt than they had the year before. Even when they took out a second mortgage to pay off their credit cards, by the end of the year they were in debt again, with higher mortgage payments. And each year, their projected expenses were greater. On a late summer morning, Mrs. Dorsett, now 32, sat with her son in Room 4013 at St. Vincent Children's Hospital in Indianapolis as a colorless infusion of immune globulin, a treatment made from blood plasma, dripped slowly into his left arm, supplying the antibodies that his immune system does not produce. The monthly infusion, which has become a regular part of his childhood along with soccer practice and family camping trips, costs $54,000 a year, of which the Dorsetts will pay more than $5,000. 'My friends don't understand it,' Mrs. Dorsett said, looking back at the family's relentless, inevitable process of insolvency. 'They think, How could it get so bad so quick? Unless you have a sick kid, you don't know what it's like.' For the Dorsetts, this is what the end looked like, according to the family's bankruptcy filing: They had $1,431 in their checking and savings accounts; they owed $29,146 on various credit cards; and after refinancing their house to pay down their credit cards, they could no longer afford the payments on their house or car. Mr. Dorsett, who works on commercial heating and air conditioning systems, sometimes stitching together 90-hour weeks, earns $68,000 a year. It is more money than his father ever made, but not enough to cover the bills, especially with the monthly infusions starting. Mrs. Dorsett recounts the impact their medical expenses have had on the family: They buy their clothing at yard sales, and skip vacations and restaurant meals. Mr. and Mrs. Dorsett argue, like many couples, mainly about money. Mr. Dorsett has had to work nights and weekends, with little contact with his wife and children; Mrs. Dorsett has tried to create a home for the children. 'We don't live a frivolous life, but I need to make my kids' life normal,' she said. 'They still need bikes. My husband says, 'Kids in the third world don't have those things.' I say, 'We don't live in a third world country.' ' As the bills mounted, it was Mrs. Dorsett who forced her husband to acknowledge that he could not simply work more hours. 'I showed him, even if I went back to work, we'd still be in debt in 10 years,' Mrs. Dorsett said. 'Our kids could not go to college.' In a study of 1,771 people who filed for bankruptcy, reported this year by four researchers at Harvard and Ohio University, 28 percent said the cause was illness or injury. Most were middle class, educated and had health insurance at the start of the treatment. Many lost phone service, went without meals or skipped medications to save money. Although the study relied largely on people's own accounts of their finances, the figure suggests that as many as 400,000 American families file for bankruptcy each year because of medical expenses. 'Not only are the bills higher, but the way we pay for care has changed,' said Elizabeth Warren, a professor at Harvard Law School and one of the study's authors. 'My mother always carried a bill with the doctor, but every dollar she paid went to principal. 'Today, the doctor takes a credit card, and a family might be paying that off at extraordinary interest rates. So people may recover physically from major medical injury, but may not recover financially.' A Shift in Burden Though health care costs have been rising for decades, changes in insurance starting around 2001 have put more pressure on consumers, especially those who need the most treatment, said Paul Ginsburg, president of the Center for Studying Health System Change, a nonpartisan research group financed primarily by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The families driven into bankruptcy by these costs include those dealing with both rare and common medical conditions, and others who simply saved too little or owed too much in the false confidence that there would not be unforeseen medical problems, or that their insurance would protect them. In Pfafftown, N.C., Glenda and Robert Lee Gantt filed for bankruptcy protection after Mrs. Gantt's rheumatoid arthritis forced her to give up working as a security guard. In Houston, Roy and Patsy McKanna filed for bankruptcy after helping their adult daughter pay for breast cancer treatment. 'We were just trying to keep them from sinking until things got better,' said Mrs. McKanna, 71. 'They took bankruptcy a little more than a year before we did. We managed our budget for 52 years. You never know what life's going to throw at you.' In the 1990's, as medical expenses rose faster than inflation, insurance companies limited costs of coverage by limiting patients' treatment options through the system known as managed care. Even as hospitals and drug companies introduced expensive new treatments, out-of-pocket costs for patients actually fell during the decade. But as consumers have objected to the limits imposed by managed care, insisting on more choice, the trade-off has been higher insurance premiums and higher out-of-pocket costs, said Arnold Milstein, medical director of the Pacific Business Group on Health. Dr. Milstein said companies had two rationales for shifting expenses to consumers: to 'share the pain' that came with higher overall costs and to encourage patients to seek care judiciously. 'But what if you're unlucky enough to get sick?' he said. 'Now you pay a lot more out of pocket. One of the unintended consequences of cost-shifting is that sicker people - the ones who most need insurance - are the ones who end up paying more of their bills.' From 2000 to 2005, employees in the most common type of insurance plan, known as preferred provider organizations, saw their premiums for individual coverage rise 76 percent, to $603 from $342, while their deductibles - the amount they pay out of pocket before insurance kicks in - rose almost 85 percent, to $323 from $175, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. By 2003, a survey by the Center for Studying Health System Change estimated, 20 million American families had trouble paying their medical bills. Two-thirds of these had health insurance. Twists of Fate Mr. and Mrs. Dorsett never expected to be part of this group. They met more than a decade ago at a gas station where she worked part time while studying to be a nurse. Mr. Dorsett liked to talk on his way home from work. Both wanted to have a big family. They married with plans to have six children. Mrs. Dorsett hoped to finish her studies and work as a nurse; Mr. Dorsett thought she should stay at home with the children. But shortly after Zachery was born, they knew something was not right. He got the same illnesses or infections as other children, but while others got better, he would get worse. A cold would turn into bronchitis; a sinus infection would require 45 days of antibiotics, and often turn into pneumonia. He needed follow-up doctor visits, refills on prescriptions, X-rays, CAT scans - each time ringing up co-payments of $10, $15, $30 or more. On a blazing summer evening, the Dorsetts sat at their kitchen table. Their one extravagance, a large-screen television, occupied the children: Zachery, 8; Dakota, 5; and Jessica, 4. Mrs. Dorsett bought the television with her mother as a present for her husband, from money she had earned baby-sitting. Mr. Dorsett, she recalled, had complained about the expense. At 40, Mr. Dorsett has a ruddy complexion, buzzed blond hair and a light beard. As he nursed a can of supermarket-brand cream soda, he seemed to wish he could turn back the calendar, find some alternative to bankruptcy court. It is a source of recurring friction between them: Mr. Dorsett never wanted to file; Mrs. Dorsett convinced him that there was no alternative. 'I make good money, and I work hard for it,' Mr. Dorsett said. 'When we filed for bankruptcy, I felt I failed.' He said one of his hardest moments was telling his father about the bankruptcy. His father had worked two or three jobs during hard times, but always managed to pay his debts. Arnold Dorsett made more money than his father ever had, he said, but what good did it do him? 'At work,' he said, 'the single guys say our insurance is good. Well, it's good for them, because they don't have kids, or don't get sick. When you have a kid who's chronically sick, it's totally different.' On his long days, Mr. Dorsett usually skips lunch rather than spend $6 or $7 at a fast food restaurant. He wishes he could take the family to the Grand Canyon, or afford a house where the girls could have their own bedrooms. But when asked about his sacrifices, he said the luxury he missed most was time, not money. 'Zach and I had no relationship until two years ago,' he said. 'Dakota hardly ever talked to me. I was putting in 80, 90 hours a week, not having a relationship with my children.' While Mr. Dorsett works, Mrs. Dorsett juggles child care with the seemingly endless wrangling with insurance companies and, until the bankruptcy filing, with creditors. Managing a Medical Mystery On an August morning at home, Mrs. Dorsett prepared a lunch of corn dogs and macaroni and cheese while Zachery got ready for soccer camp. By all appearances, he is a healthy-looking boy with a somber disposition. Though he has missed as many as 42 days in a school year because of illness, he has friends and keeps up with his classes, his mother said. His worst problem at school, she said, is pushing himself too hard. Until earlier this year, no one knew what was wrong with him. His immune disorder, known as common variable immune deficiency, can be detected through a simple blood test, but as Mrs. Dorsett took him from doctor to doctor, usually with small problems that would not go away, the doctors looked elsewhere. Some treated only the immediate symptoms; others made Mrs. Dorsett feel she was overtreating her child. 'I felt there was something wrong,' she said. 'But you can't walk into a doctor's office and say you think you know what it is because you saw it online. They're the ones with the prescription pads, and I didn't want to make them mad.' As the family went from one doctor to the next, without a diagnosis of the root problem, the insurance company often questioned the expenses. Why did Zachery need four doctor visits or five rounds of antibiotics for an ailment that most children shook off in a couple of days? Mrs. Dorsett spent days on the phone, often in voice-mail loops, and often long-distance, pleading her case. 'Like when they refused to pay for antibiotics when he had pneumonia' last year, she said. 'The antibiotics cost $373, and we didn't have it. But we couldn't just not give it to him. I knew the review board would come around eventually, but he needed the medicine right away. Finally the doctor gave us samples.' She managed the expenses, like many people, by constantly applying for new credit cards, rolling the debt from the old cards into the new ones, which usually came with low introductory interest rates. In a good year, they would have the rolling charges on their credit cards down to $5,000 or $6,000, but the charges always went up again. Gradually the debts started to catch up with her. When she fell behind on one of her heavily used cards, the company raised the 2.9 percent interest rate to 14 percent. Suddenly, she could not find a card with a low interest rate or a line of credit of more than $5,000, when the family balance exceeded $13,000. She tried playing dumb with the company, saying she was sure she had sent the check. 'But they weren't buying it,' she said. With Mr. Dorsett's insurance, Zachery's bills were not astronomical, but they were just beyond what the Dorsetts could afford. Finally, Mrs. Dorsett asked one of the hospitals for assistance. 'They said all I could do was go to churches,' she said. 'Which is worse, filing for bankruptcy or - I'm going to say it - begging at churches?' Now, Uncertainty Since the couple filed for bankruptcy protection in March, the creditors have stopped calling for money. The Dorsetts filed for, and were granted, protection under Chapter 7, which means that a trustee will liquidate their nonexempt assets to pay their creditors. But as in most Chapter 7 cases, there are no assets to liquidate. In the meantime, since they are resigned to losing their house, they are putting aside the money that would have gone to the mortgage for the next round of big expenses. For the first time since Zachery's birth they are saving money. Even now, credit card companies still offer them cards, which they have turned down. But because of the bankruptcy, they know they will not be able to secure a mortgage on their next home. Many of their friends, and especially the mothers in Mrs. Dorsett's preschool group, do not know about the bankruptcy. Even with their debts cleared for the moment, there are no guarantees that the Dorsetts will be able to stay above water. The immune globulin may keep Zachery out of the emergency room this winter, but it may not. They have no credit to buffer unforeseen expenses - a sudden car repair, a slowdown at work, braces. Mrs. Dorsett tried to put the best spin on the contingencies that loom over their lives: 'If we get another house for under $800 a month, if nothing else happens, if the treatments work, we'll make it.' And if things do not work out, they will face that another day, and for many days after that.

Subject: Hollywood’s Favorite Villains (Rogoff) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 02:56:12 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hollywood’s Favorite Villains. By Kenneth Rogoff Sept. 2005 Once upon a time, Cold War enemies, white supremacists, and evil geniuses reigned supreme as Hollywood’s favorite bad guys. No more. Today, it is multinational corporations that are increasingly being cast as the über-villains of our globalized world. For all their subliminal paid promotions and subtle product placements, corporations are getting drubbed in the main story lines of our popular culture. This treatment goes far beyond documentaries like Michael Moore’s polemical Fahrenheit 9/11 or The Corporation, an earnest if somewhat paranoid portrayal of multinational companies’ role in globalization. It extends to mainstream hits like The Constant Gardener, in which the idealistic protagonists do battle with a malicious global pharmaceutical company that is bent on exploiting Africa’s misery to test experimental drugs. To be sure, sociopathic corporations have populated books and films for more than a century. But corporate villains, typically multinational companies, have never been so ubiquitous as today. Is it unfair? Most corporations, after all, are merely convenient mechanisms for ensuring that scarce global capital is used at maximum efficiency, to the benefit of all. Are famously liberal Hollywood film directors spending too much time going to anti-globalization rallies? Perhaps. But I would submit that Hollywood’s misgivings, however untutored, represent only the tip of a growing iceberg of resentment against the perceived injustices of globalization. The simple truth is that corporations represent capital, and capital – in the form of factories, equipment, machines, money, and even houses – has been the single biggest winner in the modern era of globalization. Corporate profits are bursting at the seams of investors’ expectations in virtually every corner of the world. Even in moribund economies like Germany and Italy, where employment security is vanishing, corporations are swimming in cash. This phenomenon comes as no surprise to economists. Add two billion Indian and Chinese workers to the global labor force, and the value of other means of production – particularly capital and commodities (for example, gold and oil) – is bound to go up. And so it has, with capitalists everywhere gaining an ever larger share of the economic pie. (In theory, capitalists in labor-abundant China and India could end up as losers, but in practice they, too, have benefited thanks to their governments’ success in simultaneously liberalizing and globalizing.) Many policymakers seem to be under the impression that surging profits are a purely cyclical phenomenon, as economies continue to grow out from the depths of the 2001 recession. Wait a bit, they predict, and wages will fully catch up later in the cycle. Not likely. Capital’s piece of the pie has been getting bigger for more than 20 years, and the trend looks set to continue. Indeed, corporations’ growing share of income has been a major driver behind the long, if uneven, bull market in stocks that began in the early 1990’s. At the same time, inflation-adjusted wages for rich-country unskilled workers have barely budged over the last two decades. Some of these trends also have to do with the nature of modern technological change, which seems to favor capital and skilled workers disproportionately. But, regardless of their cause, rapidly growing inequalities are a powerful force for instability everywhere, from wealthy America to rapidly growing China to reform-challenged Europe. “A rising tide lifts all boats,” conservatives like to say. Fine, but what happens to people, like the poor of hurricane-struck New Orleans, who don’t own boats? Growing inequality would not be such a problem if governments could simply raise taxes on the rich and strengthen subsidies to the poor. Unfortunately, any country that taxes capital too aggressively will only succeed in chasing it to regions where the tax burden is lighter. In a globalized world, national governments’ ability to tax potentially mobile factors of production is sharply circumscribed. The same mechanism that pours profits into the pockets of global corporations also prevents governments from claiming a larger share of the spoils. Unfortunately, the long-term trend towards ever-lower income shares for unskilled workers is likely to continue over the coming decades, as modern technology permeates the globe, and as emerging markets like China, India, Brazil, and Eastern Europe continue to integrate into global production. This is not to say that unskilled workers are actually being made worse off by globalization in absolute terms; the vast majority are actually breaking even or better. But unskilled workers’ incomes are not keeping pace with overall economic growth, and the resulting social strains are a ticking bomb. If so, then Hollywood’s cartoon-like caricatures of evil multinational corporations may some day seize mainstream consciousness, leading to political upheavals that shatter today’s social contract. That won’t be good for profits, or for the poor. Governments – and corporations – must find better ways to provide equal opportunity through improved education, broader financial markets, and other channels. Otherwise, globalization’s storyline may not proceed according to the script. Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist of the IMF, is Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2005. www.project-syndicate.org

Subject: And the eyes in his head, see... From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 11:59:17 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: Lecciones de la Guerra Fría Joseph S. Nye El presidente Bush hizo hace poco una analogía entre la lucha actual en contra del violento terrorismo jihadi y la Guerra Fría. Tiene razón en una cosa: las olas del terrorismo tienden a ser generacionales. Desgraciadamente, al igual que la Guerra Fría, la 'guerra contra el terrorismo' será probablemente cuestión de décadas, no de años. Pero Bush olvidó otra lección implícita en su analogía: la importancia de utilizar el poder suave de la cultura. La Guerra Fría se ganó mediante una combinación de fuerza militar, que disuadió la agresión soviética, y del poder atractivo de la cultura y las ideas occidentales. Cuando cayó el muro de Berlín en 1989, lo que lo derribó fueron los martillos y buldózers, no la artillería. Lamentablemente Bush no ha aprendido esta lección. Los intercambios académicos y científicos de la Guerra Fría desempeñaron un papel significativo para aumentar el poder suave estadounidense. Si bien algunos escépticos temían que los científicos soviéticos y los agentes de la KGB se robaran la tecnología estadounidense, no se daban cuenta de que los visitantes se llevaban ideas políticas junto con los secretos científicos. Muchos de esos científicos se convirtieron en propulsores importantes de los derechos humanos y la liberalización en la URSS. Unos 50 mil soviéticos -escritores, periodistas, funcionarios, músicos, bailarines, atletas y académicos-visitaron Estados Unidos entre 1958 y 1988. Los estudios que realizó Aleksandr Yakovlev en la Universidad de Columbia en 1958 tuvieron una fuerte influencia sobre él. Yakovlev se convirtió en miembro del Politburó y ejerció una influencia clave para la liberalización sobre Mikhail Gorbachev. Oleg Kalugin, quien se convirtió en alto funcionario de la KGB, dijo, mirando al pasado desde la perspectiva de 1997 que 'Los intercambios fueron un caballo de Troya para la Unión Soviética. Desempeñaron un papel enorme en la erosión del sistema soviético. A lo largo de los años siguieron infectando a más y más personas'. Sin embargo, hoy en día la administración Bush supervisa un programa engorroso de visas que ha recortado el número de esos intercambios, sobre todo con los países musulmanes. La cultura popular también fue importante durante la Guerra Fría. Muchos intelectuales desdeñan a la cultura popular debido a su comercialismo crudo. Pero ese desprecio es injustificado, ya que el entretenimiento popular contiene frecuentemente imágenes y mensajes sutiles sobre la individualidad, las opciones del consumidor y otros valores que tienen efectos políticos importantes. Las películas estadounidenses, por ejemplo, incluyen sexo, violencia y materialismo, pero eso no es todo. También describen la vida estadounidense como abierta, móvil, individualista, en contra de lo establecido, pluralista, populista y libre. Como dijo el poeta Carl Sandburg en 1961: '¿Cómo, Hollywood es más importante que Harvard? La respuesta es, no tan limpio como Harvard, pero con mayor alcance'. La raya entre la información y el entretenimiento nunca ha sido tan clara como se imaginan algunos intelectuales y cada vez es más borrosa. Las letras de ciertas canciones populares pueden tener efectos políticos. Los mensajes culturales también se pueden transmitir por la forma en que se comportan los equipos deportivos o sus estrellas, o en las múltiples imágenes que proporcionan la televisión o el cine. Las imágenes frecuentemente transmiten valores de manera más poderosa que las palabras. Incluso el consumo de la comida rápida puede llevar una idea implícita. Como describió una familia de la India su visita a McDonald's, habían ido por una 'rebanada de Estados Unidos'. Aunque la Unión Soviética restringía y censuraba las películas occidentales, las que lograron pasar tuvieron efectos políticos devastadores. Como comentó un periodista soviético después de la proyección restringida de películas que criticaban las políticas estadounidenses en materia de armas nucleares, 'Nos conmocionaron por completo... Comenzamos a entender que nos sucedería lo mismo que a ellos en una guerra nuclear'. El público soviético que veía películas sin temas políticos se daba cuenta, de cualquier forma, de que la gente en Occidente no tenía que hacer enormes colas para comprar comida, que no vivía en departamentos comunitarios y que tenía su propio automóvil. Todo eso desacreditaba las opiniones negativas que promulgaban los medios soviéticos. Incluso el rock and roll tuvo un papel. Como testificó posteriormente uno de los asesores de Gorbachev, 'Los Beatles eran nuestra forma callada de rechazar ‘el sistema’ al tiempo que nos ajustábamos a la mayoría de sus exigencias'. Funcionarios comunistas checos enviaron a prisión a un grupo de jóvenes por escuchar cintas de 'música estadounidense decadente', pero sus esfuerzos resultaron contraproducentes. En 1980, después del asesinato de John Lennon, apareció espontáneamente un monumento en su honor en Praga y en el aniversario de su muerte había una procesión anual por la paz y la democracia. En 1988, los organizadores fundaron un Club de la Paz de Lennon que exigía la salida de las tropas soviéticas. Lennon triunfó sobre Stalin. La guerra fría se ganó con una mezcla de poder duro y suave. No todos los recursos del poder suave eran estadounidense -véase el papel de la BBC y los Beatles. Pero sería un error ignorar el papel que desempeñó la cultura popular. Hay que tener cuidado al extraer lecciones para hoy. Las culturas de Europa del Este eran más similares a las culturas occidentales que las musulmanas. En algunos círculos fundamentalistas, y entre los terroristas, la cultura occidental genera rechazo, no atracción. Pero incluso en Irán, donde los mullahs en el poder describen a Estados Unidos como 'el gran Satán', los jóvenes quieren ver videos estadounidenses en la privacidad de sus hogares. Las encuestas realizadas en el mundo musulmán muestran que la cultura estadounidense sigue siendo atractiva para la mayoría moderada. Lo que ha hecho que Estados Unidos sea impopular son sus políticas. Para empezar, Bush podía aprender a dejar de estorbar y alentar más contactos populares a nivel de las bases. Project Syndicate http://www.prensa.com/hoy/perspectiva/375943.html

Subject: 'Shalimar the Clown' From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 10:34:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/books/review/23miller.html?ex=1287720000&en=6269bcafacadaa58&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 23, 2005 'Shalimar the Clown': An Assassin Prepares By LAURA MILLER Sometimes, what it takes is not a village but a city; especially if the city is Mumbai, formerly Bombay, the task at hand is a novel and the novelist is Salman Rushdie. Rushdie's best books - 'The Moor's Last Sigh' and 'Midnight's Children' - are elegies for the lost Bombay of his childhood, a noisy, seething, vulgar extravaganza of a city in which every resident pitched him- or herself headlong into the ecstasies of cosmopolitanism. What destroyed this cacophonous Eden was the partitioning of Muslim Pakistan from India and, eventually, the fracturing of Indian life along the lethal fault lines of religious and nationalist extremism. Every Rushdie novel in one way or another recapitulates this loss; the very feverishness and excess of his prose tries to summon Bombay's beloved chaos, an effort that sometimes proves fatal to the novels themselves. After two novels ('The Ground Beneath Her Feet' and 'Fury') that tried, disastrously, to capture his new home, New York City, Rushdie has returned to the subcontinent to better effect with 'Shalimar the Clown.' This time, the proxy for Bombay is Kashmir, the mountainous northern region fought over by India and Pakistan for decades. But not so fast. The story begins, alas, in Los Angeles, admittedly a difficult city to grasp, but one that Rushdie renders with cheap facility as a 'shadowless lotus-land full of the obscenely young, this California whose body was its temple and whose ignorance was its bliss.' Cascading clauses are a Rushdie trademark; they can be taken as a manifestation of abundant imagination or as a symptom of poor writerly discipline, depending on the reader's tastes. It's hard, though, to see them as anything but laziness when they're misapplied. 'The decentered promiscuous sprawl of this giant invertebrate blob, this jellyfish of concrete and light, made it the true democratic city of the future,' is a fancy about Los Angeles that's grievously out of touch with the vacuum-sealed lives of the city's affluent. It gets better, but reading the first 100 or so pages of 'Shalimar' often feels like wearing an ill-fitting, itchy sweater. Two of the four principal characters are Max Ophuls (who shares his name, for no apparent reason, with the great German film director), a former diplomat; and his daughter, India, a documentarian, both of whom live lives of banal highbrow glamour in 1990's Los Angeles. He, despite a fastidious disdain for the movies and TV, keeps a penthouse suite in 'one of the city's best hotels' where, the narrator coyly announces, 'it was widely held that many ladies with big careers in the despised forms had been entertained.' (A novel that affects to gossip worshipfully about its own characters is a tiresome thing indeed.) She takes boxing lessons at a celebrity gym and is 'a woman with whom men wanted to sleep,' although her slumber is disturbed by longing for the Kashmiri mother she never knew. The other pair of principal characters includes the Shalimar of the title and his long-lost teenage bride, Boonyi, who, given that Shalimar murders Max in the first section, is obviously India's mother. The next section of the book, set some 30 years earlier, takes place in idyllic Kashmir, where Shalimar and Boonyi disport on the banks of the Muskadoon river. Though she is Hindu and he Muslim, their initially illicit affair is eventually condoned by their families and community. Their village, Pachigam, subscribes to the informal doctrine of 'Kashmiriyat, Kashmiriness, the belief that at the heart of Kashmiri culture there was a common bond that transcended all other differences.' 'We are all brothers and sisters here,' Shalimar's father, Abdullah, the leader of a Felliniesque band of traveling players, proclaims. 'There is no Hindu-Muslim issue.' The rest of the novel will demonstrate just how wrong Abdullah is. Here, again, is the dream of Bombay, albeit this time in rural drag. Rushdie has no gift for pastoralism and he evokes the fabled natural beauties of Kashmir as if he were a man who knew them primarily through the medium of embroidery motifs. For the creation of such a description-mad writer, Rushdie's Pachigam remains stubbornly hazy: How big is it? How developed? How many rooms do the houses have and what are they made of? Do they have electricity? Are the roads paved? Your guess, even if you haven't read the book, is as good as mine. But if Rushdie cannot make you see and smell and feel the loveliness of life in Kashmir, he does, finally, make a commanding story of its loss. It is a place where the frontiers between the words 'Hindu' and 'Muslim' had 'grown smudged and blurred,' but it will be dragged into the sectarian brutality of the 20th century all the same. Boonyi, on a restless caprice, leaves Shalimar for Max, and her young husband is transformed from 'the sweetest, gentlest and most open of any human being in Pachigam' to a ruthless assassin. As he plans his retribution, he falls in with the 'iron mullahs' and Islamist militants battling Indian troops in the region. Revenge is an ancient and powerful engine of narrative, and once Rushdie gets around to starting it up, it carries the novel along to an expected but nevertheless harrowing climax of ghastly violence. It must be said that despite the author's efforts to foreshadow it, Shalimar's transformation doesn't make much sense. As a rule, Rushdie's characters lack a plausible inner life; instead they have bizarre quirks, unusual looks or magical powers, like the figures in a fable. He seems psychologically astute only in the sketching of minor characters, for example an Indian Army colonel, an unrequited lover of Kashmir, who fantasizes about being nicknamed 'Hammer' ('Hammer by name, hammer by nature,' he imagines saying) but instead has to settle for 'Tortoise' ('Tortoise by name, damned hard-shelled by nature'). When this man returns later in the novel, as the leader of a savage counterinsurgency campaign, the only explanation we have for his descent into monstrosity is that he has gone mad because of a freakish ability to remember every single moment of his life, 'every conversation, every bad dream, every cigarette.' Perhaps this thinness results from Rushdie's being essentially a comic writer, directed to less congenial themes by history or ambition, a commedia dell'arte player cast in a tragedy. The invention of grand or profound characters doesn't come naturally to him, which may be why he feels compelled to wrap Max and India in the tinsel of cool. Yet, in his defense, the communal violence that ravages Kashmir is a thing that beggars psychology and prompts Rushdie's characters to think about the influence of planets and repeating cycles of creation and destruction. The very intimacy of it makes it inhuman, unfathomable and perhaps fundamentally un-novelistic: 'When it burst out one was not murdered by strangers. It was your neighbors, the people with whom you had shared the high and low points of life, the people with whose children your own children had been playing just yesterday. These were the people in whom the fire of hatred would suddenly light up, who would hammer on your door in the middle of the night with burning torches in their hands.'

Subject: Straight Out of Stratford From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 08:28:09 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/23/books/review/23simon.html October 23, 2005 Straight Out of Stratford By JOHN SIMON SHAKESPEARE The Biography. By Peter Ackroyd. A YEAR IN THE LIFE OF WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE 1599. By James Shapiro. TIME was when we knew little about the life of Shakespeare. Like the good Victorian he was, Tennyson exulted: 'The less you know about a man's life, the better. I thank God day and night that we know nothing about Shakespeare.' Like the true skeptic he was, Mark Twain jeered that writing a biography of Shakespeare was like reconstructing a brontosaurus skeleton from 'nine bones and 600 barrels of plaster of Paris.' This last comes from 'History Play,' an amusing fantasy life of Christopher Marlowe by Rodney Bolt, who ridicules a typical Shakespeare biographer: 'All references in the plays to dolphins are lined up to suggest that, maybe, as a boy Shakespeare traveled 12 miles to see a water pageant staged by the Earl of Leicester in his castle grounds at Kenilworth.' And so, Bolt continues, 'a story is stitched together.' Well, yes, a Shakespearean biography requires stitching, but some people are handier than others with the needle. The two books under review here are both sartorial successes. 'Shakespeare: The Biography,' by Peter Ackroyd, is longitudinal; it tackles the entire life, with just enough about the ancestors and a brief look at the afterlife. 'A Year in the Life of William Shakespeare,' by James Shapiro, is latitudinal, focusing on 1599, in some ways Shakespeare's annus mirabilis. It addresses in detail the four plays and background events of that year, but with a good many flashbacks and flash-forwards. Both approaches have their merits. Ackroyd's are preponderantly those of a fellow writer and literary historian, with savvy observations from the heights of hindsight; Shapiro's are largely those we associate with a cultural critic and political journalist in full immersion. Needless to say, there is a good deal of overlapping, as there must be, but nobody who has read the one will fail to find pleasure and profit in the other. By now research and criticism have shed so much light on Shakespeare that anyone interested enough to read these books knows the broad outlines of his life: childhood and schooling in Stratford in a household probably hiding condemned Roman Catholicism under a Protestant facade; marriage at 18 to the 26-year-old Anne Hathaway and the births of three children; the so-called lost years, during which Will may have worked for a butcher (unlikely) or tutored in the homes of Lancashire nobility (more likely). The coming to London as actor, playwright and poet, involved in the rivalries among various acting companies and competition with fellow playwrights. Perhaps also something about the mainly good relations with two monarchs, Elizabeth and James, and with certain prominent noblemen. Finally, the retirement to Stratford and life as a wealthy landowner, only sporadically punctuated by collaboration with other dramatists. Ah, but the particulars! Elusive about everything, from the way the man looked (all portraits are dubious, and all different) to the spelling of his name (more than 80 ways), from his religion (Protestant? Catholic? none?) to his sexuality (hetero? homo? bi?), from the dating of his works to the exact instances and extent of his collaborations, from what roles he may have enacted to his relationships with family and friends. Also the precise nature of his general learning and specific reading. Annoyingly (though typical for the period), not a single letter or diary entry of his exists. For some time now, what I'd call Shakelit has been a major industry. Books and articles about every conceivable and inconceivable aspect of Shakespeare are pouring out by the thousands. It seems unlikely that major factual discoveries remain to be made, but even as-yet-unsurmised surmises are becoming fewer and often sillier. Obviously, a new book about Shakespeare must take off from available historical and critical material, which by now, as the Ackroyd and Shapiro bibliographies attest (the latter alone runs to 40 pages), could easily fill a tidy volume. But when even the experts cannot have read everything, what is a mere book reviewer to do? How is he to know exactly what in these books has been documented or speculated before, and how much is new insight? Just as the spectator or reader of the plays can ignore Shakespeare's borrowings, so one may best consider these books fully their authors' own. As for claims for alien authorship of the plays, neither Ackroyd nor Shapiro wastes much ink on them. Personally, I hail the anonymous student who stated, 'Shakespeare's plays were written by William Shakespeare or another man of that name.' Ackroyd, though not a professional Shakespeare scholar, is a novelist, poet, critic and, above all, prolific biographer, with books on Chaucer, Thomas More, Blake, Dickens, Pound and T. S. Eliot, some of whom he aptly brings in here. Comparisons with Dickens, who was, in a way, the Shakespeare of the novel, are particularly suggestive; but Ackroyd, fruitfully, quotes many foreign opinions, old and new, as well. Especially effective is the brevity of his chapters, each dealing with a specific matter, and with a title slyly drawn from Shakespeare's words. That the endnotes are purely bibliographical, and everything else is right in the text, is also laudable. Praiseworthy, too, is that Ackroyd, unlike Shapiro, does not modernize spelling, heterodox as this was in Shakespeare's day. 'Any standardization or modernization of Shakespeare's language,' Ackroyd writes, 'robs it of half its strength; a shadow is not as dim and veiled as a 'shaddowwe,' a cuckoo does not sing like a 'kuckow,' and music is not as enchanting as 'musique.' In the old language we can still hear Shakespeare talking.' Ackroyd expertly evokes the townscape and landscape in and around Stratford, and the corresponding mindscape that vividly merges the urban and the rustic. Take the 108 plant varieties and 60 species of birds mentioned in the plays, evidencing a country background. And as England was changing from medieval to early modern, there 'emerged a disparity between polite and popular traditions. . . . Shakespeare was perhaps the last English dramatist to reconcile the two cultures.' Ackroyd is full of the firsts and lasts, the leasts and mosts that Shakespeare evinced. If there is a governing idea in 'Shakespeare: The Biography,' it is to demystify the man and the artist; to show him as part of a continuum originating in the medieval miracle, morality and mystery plays. Also as a hardheaded, practical man of the theater and, later, of business; as a diligent worker who steadily polished and revised his writings, and who saw all sides of an issue with uncanny impartiality. Already in school, pupils were taught to exercise their memories and argue both sides of an issue. So does one learn to remember much and use it without prejudice. How different from the old home was life in turbulent London, whose very stench 'penetrated some 25 miles on all sides' with emanations of 'dung and offal and human labor.' But Will 'thrived in a city where dramatic spectacle became the primary means of understanding reality.' His famous 'all the world's a stage' was in fact a Renaissance commonplace. Not without some justice, urban life was imagined as distinguished by sex and disease, and the new playhouses, much persecuted by the authorities, as harboring both. It was a world where kisses on the mouth were the common salutation between men and women, who bared their breasts in public, and where respected playhouse owners also owned brothels nearby. Shakespeare, often thought of as quiet, gentle, modest and retiring, is revealed by Ackroyd as shrewd, energetic and stubbornly persevering. Most of the era's playwrights were Oxford or Cambridge graduates; Shakespeare was the first to emerge from the ranks of the actors. It may be that from the mercurial relationships within the various companies he was successively part of he derived 'his greatest and earliest gift,' the commingling of comedy and tragedy. He was not a liberal. His respect is for the power of even weak rulers; the common people are invariably 'the rabble.' Significant events stem from human will, not divine providence. Rapidly though he was gaining theatrical prominence, his most reprinted work was the long erotic poem 'Venus and Adonis.' Although he is 'the most salacious of all the Elizabethan dramatists,' Ackroyd says, his is also 'the most profound treatment of love in the English language.' Erotic literature, Ackroyd argues, reveals an author's personal tastes, and that poem about 'overpowering lust for a young male' is 'considerably more passionate even than Thomas Mann's 'Death in Venice.' ' Yet 'this does not imply that he was in any sense homosexual but suggests, rather, an unfixed or floating sexual identity.' This may tie in with what Ackroyd calls extraordinary theatrical impersonality. 'It is not a matter of determining where Shakespeare's sympathies lie' - aristocracy versus populace - but 'of recognizing that Shakespeare had no sympathies at all.' We may at times feel too much novelistic license, as when Ackroyd finds 'no reason to believe' that Shakespeare 'was deeply disturbed . . . by the death of Desdemona.' But at other times his writerly approach gives him an advantage, as when he notes, of 'Antony and Cleopatra,' how 'the billowing rhetoric of the Egyptians contrasted with the high Roman rhetoric of time and duty. It is the oration conceived as poem.' Or again, of the extensive revision and rewriting of 'King Lear,' that Shakespeare 'was always a work in progress.' This is not to deny that James Shapiro writes good, clean prose that can stand up to Ackroyd's. For example, he tells about the jigs, 'semi-improvisational one-act plays' that incongruously followed the conclusions of plays because 'Elizabethan audiences demanded it. . . . Jigs - anarchic and libidinal - were wildly popular because they tapped into parts of everyday experience usually left untouched in the world of the play. As such, they provided a counterpoint to the fragile closure of romantic comedy and to the high seriousness and finality of tragedy.' By picking 1599 as his subject, Shapiro gets to zero in on four plays that marked Shakespeare's path to complete mastery. 'Henry V,' the last and most interesting of the history plays, 'succeeds and frustrates because it consistently refuses to adopt a single voice or point of view about military adventurism - past and present.' The present was the Earl of Essex's hapless campaign against the Irish rebel Tyrone, which affected Shakespeare's thinking so much that in Act V, Scene 2, the queen of France greets Henry as 'brother Ireland.' Shapiro writes, 'The mistake is not the nervous queen's but Shakespeare's, who slipped when intending to write 'brother England' (and whose error modern editors silently correct).' The next play, 'Julius Caesar,' is a transition from history play to tragedy, and reflects the uneasy times when Elizabeth's reign was threatened by Irish rebels and Catholic plotters, not to mention rumors of another Spanish Armada. Shakespeare is so good at 'juxtaposing competing political arguments, balancing them so neatly,' that 'four centuries later critics continue to debate whether he sides with or against Brutus and his fellow conspirators.' The end of the republic and the coming of empire is one of those epochal moments that always challenged Shakespeare to imagine 'what it means to live in the bewildering space between familiar past and murky future.' Another transformation occupied him in 'As You Like It,' from the Forest of Arden of his boyish dreams to what had become mostly enclosed pastures for sheepherders. That is the subtext as the comedy shuttles between four scenes in the dream forest and twelve in the pastures, showing two worlds in conflict in a background that 'at times casts a shadow over an otherwise relatively sunny comedy. Its quiet recognition of the threat of social dislocation . . . seems to anticipate the next play Shakespeare set in England, 'King Lear.' ' A similarly troubling shadow is cast over England by the tragic history of Essex and Elizabeth, which Shapiro keeps aptly running parallel to Shakespeare's growth, climaxing in 'Hamlet.' Analyzing its two versions in brilliant detail -including the influence of sermons and a new genre, the essay - the book reaches its own climax even as it traces, with the downfall of Essex, the end of chivalry. What arises instead is the East India Company, started by a rising bourgeoisie, which eventually subsumed even the marginalized aristocrats. It is this new mercantile capitalist class that greatly contributed to the making of the British Empire and the modern age. Shapiro does a fine job showing how this historic change gave birth to 'Hamlet,' with its inwardness and psychologizing, and to the row of great tragedies that followed. I disagree with his negative reading of Fortinbras and undervaluation of 'Troilus and Cressida,' but this entire final section of the book deserves close reading and careful reflection. Here, then, are two books that in their diverse ways make similarly worthy contributions to Shakespeare studies while, regrettably, having also a lesser feature in common: a certain sloppiness of diction. I cite only select examples. Ackroyd, the distinguished British author, writes 'comprised of,' 'central protagonists,' 'wracked' for tortured and 'Beaumont's and Fletcher's' (not to mention references to Sartre's play 'Les Mains Sales' as a novel and to the poet Heinrich Heine as 'the German philosopher'). Shapiro, the noted Columbia English professor, writes 'neither lives nor history come sliced,' 'Wart, whom even Falstaff admits is unfit,' 'any soldier . . . could be hung,' 'disinterested' for uninterested, 'every male . . . were required' and 'transpired' for happened. Could their love of Shakespeare elicit a desire to return us to his colorfully chaotic grammar and usage?

Subject: A Pinter Actor From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 08:27:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/weekinreview/16isher.html October 16, 2005 A Pinter Actor Must Know His Between-the-Lines By CHARLES ISHERWOOD 'Pause.' 'Silence.' 'Slight pause.' 'Long silence.' As difficult as it can sometimes be for audiences to parse the meanings in the pregnant pauses of Harold Pinter, the British playwright who won the Nobel Prize in Literature last week, imagine the challenges faced by the actors who are asked to impregnate them. Perhaps more than any plays of the 20th century, Mr. Pinter's require actors to reassess the relationships between performer and text, between language and meaning. Mr. Pinter even demands that his interpreters analyze the relative weights and measures of different kinds of speechlessness. In a play by Mr. Pinter, a silence is never a mere pause, and a pause is never to be confused with a silence. Each has its own presence and purpose, and it is the actor's job to unlock and communicate to the audience the secrets of the empty spaces in the text. But actors can't approach Mr. Pinter's plays by trying to establish psychological motive through straightforward interpretation of text and stage directions. The dialogue in most plays concerns itself with human beings' attempts (futile or otherwise) to communicate something, which clarifies the role of the actor in the process. Establish what is meant to be communicated - whether or not the character is articulating it comprehensibly or successfully - and you're at least on the right track. Much of the conversation in Mr. Pinter's plays, by contrast, is an attempt to mask feeling or motive, to avoid communication or connection. And often characters are themselves blind to the impulses that move them. The elusive motivations of Ruth, the docile but sexually enthralling wife in Mr. Pinter's early success, 'The Homecoming,' first played by Mr. Pinter's first wife, Vivien Merchant, defy any neat psychological explanations. In a 1966 interview published in The Paris Review, Mr. Pinter was asked what made the talk in his plays so theatrically effective. 'I think possibly it's because people fall back on anything they can lay their hands on verbally to keep away from the danger of knowing, and of being known,' was his reply. The actor's instinct to reveal can be at odds with the characters' impulse to conceal, even as they chatter on at length, keeping awareness or self-exposure at bay. But if Mr. Pinter's plays are fraught with acting booby traps, they also contain immeasurable rewards for those able to negotiate the terrain. Mr. Pinter himself trained as an actor and has performed in his plays and those of other playwrights throughout his career (health permitting, he's expected to appear in a Royal Court Theater production of Samuel Beckett's 'Krapp's Last Tape' next year). His oblique writing style is a testament to the trust he places in his actors to create tension, atmosphere and excitement from the hilariously mundane or elliptical and obscure streams of words at their disposal. The famous pauses - almost invariably presented without any description of their emotional tenor - pay homage to the ability of actors to instill them with power, to communicate with silence. This is why a badly acted Pinter play can be more painful to endure than a badly acted Shakespeare play. With Shakespeare, we're left with the beautiful poetry and the satisfactions of narrative, but with Mr. Pinter we're left with long, empty exchanges about, say, a cheese roll, and lots of dead air. Which isn't to say that the language in Mr. Pinter's plays is meaningless camouflage. It is more meticulously wrought and precisely measured than his silences are, and it requires actors of immense skill and sure training to imbue it with the proper musical coloring: the Cockney music-hall jazz of early plays like 'The Birthday Party' and 'The Caretaker' or the elegant, oracular chamber music of later ones like 'Old Times.' Sometimes actors successful at one mode cannot manage the other. It was a surprise to me to find that Eileen Atkins, one of the most intelligent and technically accomplished actresses onstage today, was far out of her element as the chattering landlady in the recent London revival of 'The Birthday Party.' Even John Gielgud, who triumphed alongside an equally formidable acting name, Ralph Richardson, in Mr. Pinter's 'No Man's Land,' struggled to find his way into the contradictions of the character he played, according to the diaries of the production's director, Peter Hall. 'He's over-experimenting,' Mr. Hall wrote, 'playing it humble, playing it conceited, playing it creepy, playing it simple. It is a search for the simple key. Whereas the truth is that Spooner is many things and changes his posture from second to second. So there isn't a simple key.' The performers most at ease in Mr. Pinter's plays are those who freely abandon the search for a simple key and are serenely at ease with the elusive meanings in the writing, who can inhabit the abstract or seedily specific worlds he conjures without any sense of artifice. In recent years the most confident voyager in Mr. Pinter's distinctive theatrical landscapes has probably been the British actress Lindsay Duncan, who appeared in Mr. Pinter's own production of the plays 'Celebration' and 'The Room' at the Lincoln Center Festival in 2001. Ms. Duncan even more unforgettably starred in the New York premiere of 'Ashes to Ashes' in 1999. Playing an enigmatic figure consumed by memories - or fantasies - of sexual abasement and of larger horrors echoing the Holocaust, she brought an emotional dimension to the play that went well beyond what was on the page, turning it into a shattering commentary on the continuity and contagion of abuse in human experience. As with so many other actors who have triumphed in Mr. Pinter's work - himself included - Ms. Duncan justifies the trust he continually places in actors by giving them such a significant role in illuminating the mysteries of human behavior that concern him. His respect for the actor can ultimately be seen as a correlative of one of his greatest moral concerns, his compassion for the suffering individual and outrage at the violence done to him. Most of Mr. Pinter's plays depict some form of violence - emotional, physical, sexual or psychological - that human beings visit upon one another. In choosing to write for the stage, Mr. Pinter suggests that for him the truth of these acts, whether they're performed in unnamed totalitarian states or in crabbed London flats, can best be exposed by other human beings, by actors on a stage: for inhumanity to be understood, it can't be described merely in words but must be made literally human.

Subject: The Bush Tax Cuts and the Deficit From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 07:03:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://krugman.page.nytimes.com/b/a/211537.htm October 18, 2005 The Bush Tax Cuts and the Deficit By Paul Krugman ...Here are two pictures that may help show why claims that the tax cuts were good for the deficit are wrong. Chart 1 shows federal receipts as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, or G.D.P., taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis data. These receipts plunged starting in 2001, then made a partial – but only partial – recovery over the past year. It's useful to bear in mind that estimates of the size of the Bush tax cuts put them at about 2 percent of G.D.P. The actual fall in revenue as a share of G.D.P. was much larger than that. Even now, revenue is about 3 percent of G.D.P. below its peak. Why did revenue fall so much? The most likely answer is that by the end of the 1990's revenues were inflated by the stock market bubble, which led to a lot of capital gains. When the bubble burst, revenue fell off. By the way, this isn't 20-20 hindsight. Back in 2001 I wrote a little book titled 'Fuzzy Math,' arguing against the first round of Bush tax cuts. Among other things, I argued that predictions of big future surpluses, which were used to justify those cuts, were wrong – and one reason I gave was that federal revenues were inflated by the stock bubble, and would soon fall. So why did revenues increase over the past year? Data from the Congressional Budget Office show that nothing special happened either to payroll taxes, which are proportional to wages, or to withheld income taxes, which reflect normal wages and salaries. Instead, the revenue surge came from two places, profits taxes and 'nonwithheld' income taxes. Profit taxes surged partly because profits themselves surged – this has been an economic recovery in which real wages for most workers have actually gone down, so that profits have gathered the lion's share of the gains – but also because a temporary tax break instituted in 2002 expired. We don't know for sure why nonwithheld income taxes surged, but the best guess is that it reflects a bounce in stock prices during 2003-4 and, probably, a bubble in housing. Both are one-time events, which means that the current tax take, like the tax take in 2000, is not likely to be sustained. So here's the story: revenues plunged during the first three years of the Bush administration, not just because of tax cuts, but also because of the end of a bubble. They have staged a partial recovery because of a one-time bounce back in stock prices, and also because of the emergence of a new bubble. But wait – what about claims that the tax cuts have led to a surge in economic growth? If that were true, calculating taxes as a percentage of G.D.P. would be missing the point because the tax cuts have made G.D.P. larger. So have the tax cuts made the economy grow faster? Well, no. We had a recession followed by slow growth in the early Bush years, then faster growth after that as the economy recovered. But even now real G.D.P. is considerably lower than most people thought it would be back when President Bush was selling his tax cuts. Chart 2 shows, for each quarter since the beginning of 2000, the average growth rate of real G.D.P. over the previous five years. At the end of the 1990's, people thought that the economy would grow at rates similar to those of the previous few years – probably at more than 3 percent a year. In fact, economic growth since 2000 has averaged only about 2.5 percent, which is below expectations....

Subject: Paul Krugman: The Bush Tax Cuts From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 06:56:32 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/ October 23, 2005 Paul Krugman: The Bush Tax Cuts and the Deficit By Mark Thoma Much has been written here and elsewhere (here too) regarding the Bush tax cuts and the deficit. Many claim that the tax cuts didn't increase the deficit. Instead, the claim is that the tax cuts increased economic growth enough to bring about an increase in tax revenues and reduce the deficit. Let's see if Paul Krugman can help. Is there any evidence out there that can help to convince us one way or the other? Are tax cuts the answer to the deficit problem? The Bush Tax Cuts and the Deficit, Paul Krugman, Money Talks, NY Times: ...Here are two pictures that may help show why claims that the tax cuts were good for the deficit are wrong. Chart 1 shows federal receipts as a percentage of ... G.D.P.... These receipts plunged starting in 2001, then made a partial – but only partial – recovery over the past year. It’s useful to bear in mind that estimates of the size of the Bush tax cuts put them at about 2 percent of G.D.P. The actual fall in revenue as a share of G.D.P. was much larger ... Even now, revenue is about 3 percent of G.D.P. below its peak... So revenue as a share of GDP fell after the tax cuts? Why did that happen? The most likely answer is that by the end of the 1990’s revenues were inflated by the stock market bubble ... When the bubble burst, revenue fell off. ... Back in 2001 ... I argued that predictions of big future surpluses, which were used to justify those [tax] cuts, were wrong – and one reason I gave was that federal revenues were inflated by the stock bubble, and would soon fall. That explains the past, but the news stories on the deficit are about the present. What's been going on with revenues recently? Why have they been increasing? Data from the Congressional Budget Office show that ... the revenue surge came from two places, profits taxes and “nonwithheld” income taxes. Profit taxes surged partly because profits themselves surged – this has been an economic recovery in which real wages for most workers have actually gone down, so that profits have gathered the lion’s share of the gains – but also because a temporary tax break instituted in 2002 expired. We don’t know for sure why nonwithheld income taxes surged, but the best guess is that it reflects a bounce in stock prices during 2003-4 and, probably, a bubble in housing. Both are one-time events... I'm not convinced yet. Here's why. Suppose taxes are cut and GDP growth goes up by, say, 3%, and because of the robust growth in GDP suppose that taxes increase by 2%. Then wouldn't taxes as a percentage of GDP fall? Doesn't that undercut your argument above which relies upon the taxes as a percentage of GDP falling as a sign of falling revenues? Well, no. ... [E]ven now real G.D.P. is considerably lower than most people thought it would be ... Chart 2 shows, for each quarter since the beginning of 2000, the average growth rate of real G.D.P. over the previous five years. At the end of the 1990’s, people thought that the economy would grow at ... more than 3 percent a year. In fact, economic growth since 2000 has averaged only about 2.5 percent... The bottom line is that there is nothing in the data to suggest that the Bush tax cuts have had a favorable effect on the budget deficit. Then why are the claims that tax cuts reduced the deficit by increasing revenue so widespread? The answer, of course, is that wiggle at the end of the line in Chart 1. Revenue is still low by historical standards, but it’s not as low as it was last year. And as a result, the budget deficit actually came down in fiscal 2005, albeit to a level that would have seemed shockingly high a few years ago... But isn't that better? Shouldn't we be cheering the recent upswing in revenue? Well, put it this way: if a student gets a D after a string of F’s, his performance has improved – but that doesn’t put him at the top of the class. Given this and other evidence suggesting the same thing, I'm convinced.

Subject: Paul Krugman, of course From: Audrey To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 06:01:54 (EDT) Email Address: geve@inebraska.com Message: I've been so enamored of PK's clear-headed Bush bashing he first thing I think of waking up Mondays and Fridays is: Good! PK day! When my antique computer and then the Times withheld him, I was lucky enough to find this website. Now I'm on my free trial of them Time's service and no longer have to visit the library twice a week. But what happened this past Friday? No explanation about 'vacation' or 'working on next book'. Does the Times ever reject a piece? Would you then carry it anyway? (I'm new at this, excuse me.)

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman, of course From: Emma To: Audrey Date Posted: Sun, Oct 23, 2005 at 06:51:09 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Paul Krugman is on vacation for a week. I will post summaries of all the columns here. I too look forward to each column. There is so much we have gained from the integrity of PK. Please do add thoughts to the message board.

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman, of course From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 19:39:19 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I second Emma's statement. (even though I sometimes argue PK's articles)

Subject: Big in Japan, but Mostly a Duck Here From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 22, 2005 at 10:36:34 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/22/business/22interview.html?ex=1287633600&en=e40f115733d937fc&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 22, 2005 Big in Japan, but Mostly a Duck Here By LAURA RICH In Japan, Aflac is a major supplier of health and life insurance, covering one in every four people. This market accounts for 70 percent of Aflac's operating earnings. In the United States, Aflac is a duck. Despite its 50-year history as a provider of supplemental health and life insurance, Aflac barely registered with Americans until they heard the word squawked by a duck voiced by the comic Gilbert Gottfried in commercials that began running in 2000. According to the Bantam Group, a research firm, 91 percent of Americans are familiar with the Aflac brand, but fewer than 6 percent of working Americans are customers, and only 10 percent of all Americans know what the company, based in Columbus, Ga., does. Its chairman and chief executive, Daniel P. Amos, and its executive vice president for operations, Paul S. Amos II, his son, spoke recently about the commercials and the United States health care system. Q. Did you just get lucky with the duck campaign? DANIEL P. AMOS: Well, I think there's always a little luck in anything. But at the same time, we knew that the old campaigns weren't going to work. So we put it out for bids and asked all types of different companies to come in and bid on it. We saw a lot of ads, and from that, I had them test the commercials. The Aflac duck commercial came back as the highest-rated commercial in terms of name recognition. The scary part was, we didn't know if they liked it or not. We only tested whether or not you could remember the name. Q. Do you think there has become too much focus on the duck? D.P.A.: No. The way our agents feel is that it's a door opener. Most people, as a general rule, don't want to talk about insurance. It's not a subject matter that people like to talk about. It's usually something bad. You're either sick, dying, in an accident of some sort. So it's not a popular subject that you sit around talking about. If anything, you hear complaints. So to have something light is a great introduction. Q. Have you increased your spending on marketing? PAUL S. AMOS II: In general, we have increased the amount. Right now, we spend about $50 million, which is considerably less than many of the major companies in the United States. However, in the last few years, we've only incrementally increased it along with our profit so that we stay in line - so we keep our company growing at the same pace. Q. Even if 91 percent of people recognize the name, only 10 percent know what Aflac does. Isn't that a failed campaign? P.S.A.: Not at all. Our preliminary goal from the campaign was to get brand recognition. If people don't know the name - first of all, the name alone can be something that draws you in. It allows our salespeople to go in; we can take stuffed ducks; we have an opportunity for them to make an initial entree with the business owner. Q. A lot of people think the health care system in this country is broken. Do you agree? D.P.A.: I agree. We have the best health care system in America of any country in the world. You can get the best coverage possible. The problem is controlling the cost. And there is no incentive to really control the cost in America; doctors aren't willing to restrict tests. Also, in Canada, as an example, they restrict - they have only a certain amount of resources. There are more CAT scans in the state of Michigan than there are in all of Canada. Q. What are some big issues? D.P.A.: I read an article a few years ago that said that in America, that in the last six months of your life you spent more on health care costs than your entire life before that. It just means we try to keep people alive that probably shouldn't - that wouldn't make it. There's no solution to it, but we do everything in our power to keep people alive. What you need is more preventive medicine.

Subject: Recovery From the Cultural Revolution From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 22, 2005 at 08:22:17 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/22/international/asia/22xu.html October 22, 2005 A Lifetime in Recovery From the Cultural Revolution By HOWARD W. FRENCH SHANGHAI SOMETIMES a single life can tell more about a country's experience than a shelfful of history books. Many Chinese people of a certain age have such lives - rich in struggle, in suffering, in the consequences of man's folly, but often enough, too, in a measure of redemption. These are people today in their 40's whose transition to adulthood was hijacked by the Cultural Revolution. High school and college studies were aborted. Many city residents were 'sent down' to the countryside to work as peasants, or assigned to antiquated factories to churn out rough goods. For the lucky, life eventually resumed; productive life, that is. Such is the story of Xu Tian, a 43-year-old scientist from Zhejiang Province whose discoveries involving the transposition of genes were featured last month on the cover of the scientific journal Cell. People who know about such things say Dr. Xu's work could affect all our lives, making it possible to switch genes on and off, facilitating therapies for diabetes, depression, you name it. The scientist divides his time between Yale University and Fudan University in Shanghai, and works as an investigator for the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. So promising are his findings that he is already being mentioned by his peers as a potential Nobel laureate. 'I never expected to go to college,' Dr. Xu said during a recent visit to Shanghai, speaking of the great suspension of normal life that marked the Cultural Revolution. 'Nobody in my high school went to college. We had half-pound rations of meat and of cooking oil. Matches were rationed. Toilet paper was rationed.' The most striking thing about returning to Shanghai, he said, is the intensity of commerce in today's China. 'People try to sell you things,' Dr. Xu said with the 'pinch me' air of disbelief of someone who grew up in an era of scarcity. It is in many ways the opposite of the distortions of the Cultural Revolution, but as a scientist, Dr. Xu is not altogether pleased. DURING the Cultural Revolution he was able to attend high school by promising to go later to plant rice. But he was an angry student, instead spending his time playing go, the Asian board game. Later he was fortunate to enter Fudan University, one of the greatest in China. He remembers traveling to Shanghai to visit the school, wide-eyed and thoroughly uncertain about what route to take in academia. Parents and relatives had been active in the humanities and were persecuted as a result. All cautioned him against following that path. 'I saw that Fudan offered genetics, so I asked my family, 'What is genetics?' and they had no clue,' Dr. Xu said without affectation. 'I asked my neighbors, and they had no clue, so I thought genetics must not be very popular. Maybe I'll have a chance.' There is a dreamily idealized quality to the way Dr. Xu described the schooling of that day. 'People were very eager to teach and to learn,' he said. 'Many of the people had been trained in the West, and had never had the opportunity to teach before. The students were incredibly ambitious. We had no clue what the outside world looked like, and suddenly we had an opportunity to study.' Now China is rushing to build one of the world's greatest educational establishments. And yet Dr. Xu suspects that in some ways, the country peaked academically back in those days, at least where the spirit of pure inquiry is concerned. Dr. Xu made his way to the United States in 1983, landing in Harlem with $50 in his pocket. The World Bank had financed a program to support overseas studies for a small number of China's best students, and at Fudan he had been one of two chosen. 'At the time the vice president of City College was visiting Fudan, and he asked me, 'What do you want to do?' ' he said. 'I told him I'd like to study developmental biology, and he said City College was a wonderful place. He showed me a brochure that said several of the grads there had won Nobel Prizes, and I said: 'Wow! That's exactly where I'd like to be!' ' DR. XU's introduction to America was replete with unpleasant surprises. He was mugged near the college less than two weeks after arriving. He felt hopeless in English, and as a nobody without grant money he was denied access to his new school's laboratories. 'I knew nothing about the United States, but I knew that if you wanted to learn science, the U.S. was the place,' he said. 'I'm still deeply grateful, even though early life was very tough. They gave me a $3,500 T.A.-ship, and I still had to pay tuition, which meant I lived in New York on $1,500. But the hardship was something I could deal with. It's the opportunity that counts. 'That's what young people need.' After six months, Yale offered him a full scholarship, allowing him to pursue his graduate studies, and to work there ever since. His visits back to China are those of a prodigious son, and his feelings toward China are at once hopeful and deeply critical. What he has found is a nation investing furiously, and with some notable successes, in educating its people. At the same time, he fears the implications of a system heavily invested in control, and the culture of rampant and mindless materialism, careerism and cronyism that it has produced. 'The best people have left and the old people have retired, and commercialization has taken hold,' Dr. Xu said. Referring to scholarly investigation, he added: 'The tradition has been broken, and we who were seeking the truth have moved on. It is very difficult to rebuild this sort of thing.' Materialism, he said, has fueled an overpowering urge to 'get rich quickly,' leaving few with the patience for pure inquiry. Everywhere one looks in education, he said, one sees the controlling hand of government, meaning that those with the best connections prevail, not those with the best ideas. Those who answer the fixed questions of a system based on the planning of nearly everything are rewarded, he said, not those who answer questions that few had dared dream about. 'They are putting more into education than perhaps any country,' Dr. Xu said, 'but what we haven't taught people yet is to value ideas, and to value the life of the scholar.' Speaking boldly for a person who keeps a foot in China, Dr. Xu says what the country needs is a 'new revolution' to get away from what he said was a 'system that teaches people to follow the rules, not to be an innovator.' To get there, he warned, China will have to overcome thousands of years of tradition 'that has always avoided exploring different ways of thinking and exploring, and has emphasized staying within the system.' THE chance to help foster that new spirit is what began drawing Dr. Xu back to China in the early 1990's, after he had become an American citizen. 'I went back to Fudan and one of my former professors asked me to meet his students,' he said. 'He told me he tried to motivate his students, and I said: 'What does that mean? When we were here we were all motivated. We didn't even care about eating or sleeping.' ' Dr. Xu said the students he met were among the country's best, but they told him biology was boring. 'I said, 'Let me spend 10 minutes with you to tell you about some of the latest discoveries, and if you still feel it is boring, I give up.' The discussion lasted 2 hours.'

Subject: Christie's Going, Going to China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 22, 2005 at 08:12:08 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/20/arts/design/20emer.html?ex=1287460800&en=7cfe74154b7f5de8&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 20, 2005 Christie's Going, Going to China to Hold Auctions By CAROL VOGEL Determined to be the first Western auction house to capitalize firsthand on China's booming art market, Christie's has signed an agreement to conduct auctions in Beijing, company officials said. And to meet Chinese government restrictions on foreign businesses holding auctions on their own, it has teamed up with a newly formed Beijing auction house called Forever. Under the agreement, settled this week, Christie's will license its name, provide experts and oversee the entire auction process, from the acquisition of works for sale to the printing and design of the catalog. Its first sale - 45 examples of modern and contemporary Chinese art - is scheduled for Nov. 3 at the Great Wall Sheraton Hotel in Beijing and is expected to bring $10 million. 'It's important for us to put down stakes and let people know we've arrived,' said Edward Dolman, Christie's chief executive. 'This is a huge market and we're building on the tremendous sales in Hong Kong.' In May and June, Mr. Dolman said, Christie's sales in Hong Kong totaled nearly $130 million and attracted 4,500 people a day. They came to view everything from classic Chinese ceramics and jade jewelry to modern and contemporary painting. The number of moneyed collectors in China is growing as fortunes are being made in construction, technology, manufacturing, real estate and other industries. According to figures published by China's 10 leading auction houses, sales have risen from less than $100 million in 2000 to about $1 billion in 2005. China is not a new territory for either Sotheby's or Christie's. Both auction houses opened offices in Shanghai in 1994 to identify property to sell and to contact prospective buyers. Two years later, Christie's opened an office in Beijing. Sotheby's has had a representative there for the past year. As for Hong Kong, Sotheby's has been holding sales in the former British colony since 1973, and Christie's since 1986. Year by year, the number of Asians buying at auction is increasing. Executives at Sotheby's report that in 2004 its Asian clients spent more than $275 million at its salesrooms around the world, up from just over $100 million in 2003. Asian artworks are also becoming more popular and expensive. In July, Christie's set a record for an Asian artwork at auction when a London dealer bought a 14th-century blue-and-white jar for $27.7 million. Now Christie's and Sotheby's are focusing on how best to capitalize on the Chinese market. But while Christie's has entered an agreement with a Chinese partner in Beijing, Sotheby's is taking a more cautious approach. 'We're putting out feelers and will be watching Christie's closely to see what we can learn,' said Henry Howard-Sneyd, managing director of Sotheby's in Asia and Australia. 'But since holding auctions in China has to be done through intermediaries, we will see how things develop.' Mr. Howard-Sneyd, who is based in Hong Kong, added that the company's staffing throughout Asia was increasing by 15 percent to 20 percent. 'The Chinese love fine wines, jewelry, Western furniture, 19th-century paintings as well as contemporary Chinese art,' he said. Chinese contemporary art is one of the fastest-growing segments of this market, attracting buyers from around the world. Sotheby's is planning to hold its first sale of contemporary Chinese art in March, during Asia Week in New York. Xiaoming Zhang, the expert in charge of the sale, comes to Sotheby's from the Guggenheim Museum, where she helped organize its giant show 'China: 5,000 Years' in 1998. She was later part of a Guggenheim team exploring possible satellite programs around the world. Ms. Zhang is now traveling through China looking for property to sell. 'It's not easy,' she said in a telephone interview. 'The demand is far greater than the supply.' Chinese contemporary artists generally fall into two categories: in the first group are those whose style is based on traditional Chinese images and forms, like ink-wash landscapes, harking back to the 17th and 18th centuries. One example is Wu Guanzhong, who produced 'White Poplar Woods,' a modern twist on a densely painted forest that is expected to sell for $770,000 to $900,000 at Forever/Christie's next month. Another is the artist Lin Fengmian, who studied in France and has painted scenes like 'Opera Figures,' a scroll estimated to fetch $154,800 to $232,300 next month in Beijing. The second category consists of an important group of Chinese artists whose work is based in Pop and conceptual art and who have a wide international following. Sotheby's plans to sell their work in New York in March. This group includes the conceptual artist Huang Yongping, the subject of a retrospective at the Walker Art Center in Minneapolis on view through Jan. 15. The group also includes Zhang Huan, a Chinese-born artist who lives in New York, where he has shown at P.S. 1 Contemporary Art Center, Deitch Projects in SoHo and elsewhere. Perhaps the most celebrated of them all is Cai Guo-Qiang, known to New Yorkers for beaming a rainbow over the East River three years ago for the opening of the Museum of Modern Art's temporary exhibition space in Queens, as well as for 'Light Cycle,' a pyrotechnic display that lighted up the sky above Central Park for its 150th anniversary. Over the summer Mr. Cai was also the curator of the Venice Biennale's first official Chinese pavilion, sponsored in large part by the Chinese government.

Subject: Accelerating Their Moves Into China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 22, 2005 at 07:51:21 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/22/business/22yuan.html October 22, 2005 Finance Firms Accelerating Their Moves Into China By DAVID BARBOZA BEIJING - After years of hesitancy and half-hearted attempts to break into the Chinese market, American and European financial services companies are investing billions of dollars here in the hopes of reaping huge profits from China's rapid economic rise. Wall Street firms and some of the world's biggest banks and financial services companies, including Bank of America and American Express, have already invested more than $20 billion over the last three years in joint ventures or strategic stakes in dozens of Chinese banks, brokerage houses and insurance companies. With China promising further changes and an opening of its financial markets, some of the world's biggest stock and futures exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, are convinced that a growing number of big stock listings and futures or derivatives trading will soon come from the mainland. This year alone, Bank of America put $3 billion into the China Construction Bank; a group of investors led by the Royal Bank of Scotland and Merrill Lynch invested $3.1 billion in the Bank of China; a Goldman Sachs-led group is investing $3 billion in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China; and Temasek Holdings of Singapore has agreed to invest more than $4 billion in two Chinese banks. The accelerated push acknowledges that China has become a focal point of global commerce: it is the world's fastest-growing major economy, and its huge trade surplus and huge foreign currency reserves are solidifying its status as an economic superpower. Of course, China's financial markets are still relatively immature. Its banking system is rife with corruption and corporate governance is poor; its stock market is depressed and seemingly broken; its brokerage houses are insolvent; and its managed currency elicits outrage overseas because of trade disputes. And yet, there is a growing sense around the world that now is the time to invest or to begin creating a platform to offer financial services products and lay the groundwork for more cross-border deals with the Chinese. 'Everyone's jockeying to get a piece of what they hope is the big growth industry,' says Jonathan Anderson, chief Asian economist for UBS. One indication of the importance of the marketplace here was this week's visits of Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman; John W. Snow, the Treasury secretary; Christopher Cox, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission; and Reuben Jeffrey 3d, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The delegation of government officials and executives repeatedly referred to the far-reaching changes that have taken place in China. They praised the Chinese government and said they expected further openings as China moves toward becoming a full-fledged market economy. They also met with top leaders, including Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and the head of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan. But the American officials also pressed for China to let its currency appreciate further and to lift restrictions on foreign investing in China, like limits on stakes in brokerage firms and banks. 'We clearly see the momentum,' Marc E. Lackritz, president of the Securities Industry Association, said here. 'In the long run, this is the growth opportunity.' Underlying the visit of so many high-level American officials is a realization that the American trade deficit is widening, and that, to some degree, purchases of American homes and sport utility vehicles are being partly financed by China, which is using its huge foreign exchange reserves to buy United States Treasury securities, thereby holding down interest rates. For years, of course, big banks, insurance companies and Wall Street firms have been coming to China seeking riches. But most have been disappointed by the results. Still, over the last few years, deals like Lenovo's acquisition of the personal computer unit of I.B.M. and the $1 billion cash investment by Yahoo in Alibaba.com, as well as this year's banking rush, suggest that China has turned a corner. The list of big investors is growing more impressive. Lately, officials from Citigroup, ABN Amro, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas have been prowling China for financial services investments, and committing billions of dollars to new deals. Allianz of Germany and HSBC are moving to enter China's credit card market. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are scouting for new stock listings. And a few weeks ago, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, one of the world's biggest futures and derivatives exchanges, was host of a conference in Shanghai. With so much activity, many analysts are warning of a bubble here. They say, often not for attribution, that venture capital firms, banks and others are bidding up the prices of Chinese assets to ridiculous levels and that major companies are putting staggering amounts of cash into risky ventures with suspect books. Everyone, they say, is traveling to China these days. And everyone in the financial services world seems to have caught China fever.

Subject: The Mortgage Maker Vs. the World From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 22, 2005 at 06:17:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/business/16mortgage.html?ex=1287115200&en=67f6fab5a60bd7c6&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 16, 2005 The Mortgage Maker Vs. the World By JEFF BAILEY SIMI VALLEY, Calif. A touch of resentment - based on income, education, social class - motivates countless ambitious people, though few will admit to it once they become successful. An exception is Angelo R. Mozilo, a founder and chief executive of the Countrywide Financial Corporation, a company that has soared from obscurity to become the nation's No. 1 mortgage lender - and, in the process, produced a personal fortune for Mr. Mozilo of about half a billion dollars. This year alone, his compensation is expected to reach $100 million. Modest origins - a butcher's son from the Bronx who worked his way through Fordham University - drove Mr. Mozilo to push Countrywide past the mortgage businesses of far larger companies, including Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Washington Mutual. He readily admits to having a chip on his shoulder, a source of motivation that he has studied, channeled and sought in others, building a company that, too, is an overachiever. The chip also contributes to Mr. Mozilo's feeling that he is entitled to his hefty pay package. 'Nobody called me when I was making nothing for years and years and said, 'Can I help?' ' Mr. Mozilo said in an interview at a Countrywide loan processing campus that sprawls over a hillside in this Los Angeles exurb, across the road from a garbage dump. His pay, he added, 'is based on my performance.' That performance has been impressive, particularly during the recent housing boom. Countrywide's loan volume quintupled over the last five years, and its profit grew even faster, to $2.2 billion last year. But the history of the mortgage industry is full of nasty surprises that sank or slowed once-strong companies - interest rate swings and frenetic refinancing make the business volatile and risky. That weighs on Countrywide's stock, which trades at a discount to other financial firms. On the topic of being underappreciated, Mr. Mozilo doesn't require much encouragement. 'I run into these guys on Wall Street all the time who think they're something special because they went to Ivy League schools,' he said. For companies like his, 'We're always underestimated. And we still are. I am. I must say, it bothered me when I was younger - their snobbery and their looking down on us.' A lithe, little guy with a jutting jaw, Mr. Mozilo looks like he has faced off against his share of bullies. Today, he dresses elaborately, as if to remind them of who came out on top. A perfectly folded hankie peeks out from the breast pocket of his blue suit; underneath is a crisp banker's shirt in blue with a white collar, and weighty cufflinks with the Countrywide logo. All is set off against a deep tan. In an interview, he didn't wait for a question, sallying forth on his own. 'Who I am: I was a messenger boy for a mortgage company in Manhattan,' he began. 'I was a 14-year-old boy. The people in this company know I did what they're doing. Getting kicked out of real estate offices - the 40th mortgage guy to walk through the door - that's the business. It has been a source of strength to me as a leader. Fifty-two years I've been doing this.' Mr. Mozilo is 66 and expects to retire at 68. He has recruited others with chips on their own shoulders to carry on at Countrywide after he leaves, and has set them loose on the staid banking industry with something to prove. His top two lieutenants graduated from California State University, Northridge, a decidedly un-Ivy League institution not far from here. Another comes from California State University, Long Beach. All told, the company now employs more than 50,000 people. In truth, of course, graduates of less-than-elite colleges are well represented at many large financial institutions. At Wells Fargo, the big San Francisco-based bank, for instance, Richard M. Kovacevich, chief executive and a Stanford man, in August named as his No. 2 and apparent successor John G. Stumpf, who has an accounting degree from St. Cloud State University in Minnesota. What sets Countrywide apart is the us-versus-them feeling that Mr. Mozilo draws from his life story and his ability to tap into the same feelings in others. Indeed, many of his employees are drawn to what he sells as a free-wheeling meritocracy, and they bring the chips on their shoulders with them. 'I did,' said Brian Hale, who left Wells Fargo four years ago. A Countrywide managing director in charge of retail loan production, he is a graduate of the State University of New York at Plattsburgh. 'In many organizations I compete with, that would disqualify me for the job I have at Countrywide,' Mr. Hale said of his schooling. True or not, it motivates him. 'The key people I depend upon - that chip is so ingrained,' Mr. Mozilo said. 'They're sort of my apostles in that regard.' The success of Countrywide might cause most executives to let up a bit. The stock has been among the best performers over the last 20 years. Profits exceed $2 billion a year. And, pulling further away from competitors, Countrywide expects to originate between $390 billion and $480 billion in mortgages this year, 14 to 15 percent of the nation's total. Its costs are among the lowest in the industry. Countrywide lends directly to consumers and also buys loans from other lenders and from loan brokers. It packages most of the loans up and resells them at a profit. Because it is primarily a mortgage lender, however, Countrywide's profits and stock price are vulnerable to interest rate swings, and thus its shares trade for about nine times its per-share earnings, a relatively low multiple. Its nearest competitor in the mortgage business, Wells Fargo, is a diversified bank that is less vulnerable to shifting rates. Its stock trades at about 14 times its earnings. Mr. Mozilo bought a bank in 1991 - its assets doubled over the last year, to $91 billion - and Countrywide is hanging onto more mortgages, producing a stream of income to smooth the ups and downs of the refinancing market 'so we can get a better multiple for the shareholders,' Mr. Mozilo said. 'Will we? I don't know. To this day, we are perceived as a proxy on interest rates.' While he is sanguine about the stock price, Mr. Mozilo remains volatile about so much else. Particularly irksome are calls by Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, to shrink Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the quasi-government institutions that buy huge numbers of mortgages from financial institutions, notably from Countrywide. 'Fannie and Freddie are a threat to his banks,' Mr. Mozilo said of Mr. Greenspan, whose agency regulates big bank holding companies. By buying his mortgages and thus freeing up his capital to solicit even more business, Fannie and Freddie are a big reason Mr. Mozilo has driven Countrywide past the Citigroups and the Wells Fargos to the top of the mortgage heap. 'If it wasn't for them,' he said of Fannie and Freddie, 'Wells knows they'd have us.' He can also be irked by his employees. Walking through a hallway past a worker who is away from his desk and talking on a cellphone, Mr. Mozilo said, 'I hate that.' The hallways are remarkably empty; workers are in their cubicles, which all have low partitions, so employees can be easily seen. Mr. Mozilo pays less attention to the cubicles' square footage. 'Whether it's smaller or larger, they adapt, like fish to a fish tank,' Mr. Mozilo said. As Anne McCallion, the director of finance, observed, 'Countrywide is not a paternalistic organization.' Indeed, the company agreed to pay $30 million to settle a lawsuit filed on behalf of employees who say they weren't compensated for overtime. The suit and other labor issues are one reason the company now prefers to add workers in Texas and other states with labor laws that are friendlier to employers. Standing beside Mr. Mozilo, Steve Bailey, the chief of loan administration, noted that Countrywide has 17,000 workers in California. 'We should be out of California,' he said. Mr. Mozilo and a partner founded Countrywide in 1969, intent on building the first national mortgage company. After a $3 million stock offering failed, they raised $450,000. By 1983, with more of a track record, they raised $11 million by selling stock, but the deal limited Mr. Mozilo to only small raises to his salary, which was $345,000. The butcher's son had grown accustomed to a good living. 'I had five kids,' he said. 'It was really hard.' As the 1980's wore on, the savings and loan crisis cleared away many of Countrywide's bigger rivals. And the rise of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac allowed Countrywide and others to grow rapidly by selling their loans at a profit and recycling the capital into making new loans. In the refinancing boom of 1993, 'we really came into our own,' Mr. Mozilo said. When boom turned to bust, Countrywide and others laid off workers. And with the likes of Wells Fargo, Citigroup, General Motors Acceptance and other larger companies piling into the national mortgage market, Countrywide briefly considered a takeover offer from Lloyd's Bank about five years ago. But the buyer backed away, Mr. Mozilo said, punctuating the story with, 'Thank God.' Around that time, Countrywide invited Eric G. Flamholtz, a consultant and a management professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, to address a strategic planning retreat. When we met, Mr. Flamholtz said, Mr. Mozilo 'gave me a limp handshake.' But 'when he heard I was from Brooklyn, he perked up.' The professor had a wacky notion that the mortgage market, where no lender had more than a 5 percent share, would inevitably and rapidly consolidate, leaving as few as three big players, one of them clearly dominant. He also said pricing wouldn't dictate the winner. 'You win with infrastructure,' he said. THE prospect of a chance to dominate competitors seemed to reinvigorate Mr. Mozilo. Countrywide invested heavily in technology to lower its costs and quicken its service, then went on to announce a goal to capture 30 percent of the mortgage market. It accelerated the building of a network of 795 local offices to cater to real estate agents and home builders, who refer home buyers to mortgage companies. That network distinguishes Countrywide from competitors that rely more on phone banks. Can Countrywide respond more quickly to homebuilders and homebuyers trying to seal deals? 'Even if I can't,' said Mr. Hale, who runs retail loan production, 'the perception of the Realtor and builder is I can.' The timing was great. Low interest rates led to a huge refinancing boom, which peaked in 2003. Soaring home prices also led consumers to stray in huge numbers from 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to adjustable-rate loans, interest-only loans and, more recently, 'pay-option' loans that allow payments for a period of time that don't even cover the owed interest, resulting in a rising loan balance, or negative amortization. These mortgages tend to be more profitable than old-style loans. Nonprime loans, those made to less-creditworthy borrowers, brought it nearly four times as big a gross profit - 3.64 percent of the loan amount compared with 0.93 percent for prime mortgages - last year. But as profits climbed, so did the complexity, and potentially the risk, of Countrywide's operation. Adjustable-rate loans accounted for 51 percent of Countrywide's mortgages last year, up from 14 percent in 2002. In this year's second quarter, pay-option loans, the ones that allow negative amortization, were 21 percent of Countrywide's total, versus just 3 percent a year earlier. That volume of such loans has never been tested in a sharply rising interest-rate environment, a situation feared by some though not yet on the horizon. While Countrywide sells most of its loans, passing the credit risk to others, it had $15 billion worth of pay-option adjustable rate mortgages on its own books at the end of June, and almost one in five of them had experienced negative amortization. If delinquencies on those loans or others rise, Countrywide's ability to sell loans in the future could be damaged. For this reason, Wells Fargo has so far shied away from pay-option mortgages. Others aren't as reluctant as Wells Fargo, and fierce competition - industry overcapacity, really - has this year squeezed profit margins sharply. In the second quarter, Countrywide's gross profit on loans sold plunged to 1.02 percent of the loan amount from 1.64 percent in the first quarter. In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing for the quarter, the company said, 'We believe that industry consolidation should lessen irrational pricing.' But is pricing irrational, or is it merely now the norm in a highly efficient industry, one that Countrywide helped develop and one that delivers an abundance of capital to consumers who shop ever more wisely for the best deal? Asked if the thinning of margins will stop, Mr. Mozilo said, 'It's going to ease for the balance of the year.' But over the long term, 'I don't think so,' he added. Countrywide, like other big financial companies, is diversifying, selling insurance and home equity loans, all in an effort to keep growing and boost profits. MR. MOZILO, after pocketing about $70 million last year from salary, bonus and gains on exercising stock options, will probably hit $100 million in pay for 2005. He has already exercised more than three million options, selling the shares, this year. His cash bonus, $17.3 million last year, was the biggest among chief executives of all companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, according to Paul Hodgson of the Corporate Library, a corporate governance organization. With huge slugs of options in recent years, and Countrywide's surging stock price 'over the last three years, he has had a $500 million jump in worth,' said Brian Foley, an independent compensation consultant in White Plains. With shareholders benefiting so, 'you've got to give him his due,' Mr. Foley said, but added, 'When is enough enough?' Countrywide's lead director and chairman of the board's compensation committee, Michael E. Dougherty, chairman of Dougherty Financial Group, a Minneapolis investment company, said of Mr. Mozilo: 'He deserves every penny. He has a passion that only a founder has. I get e-mails time-dated from him at 2 a.m.' That's high praise, but Mr. Mozilo is resigned to being underappreciated. When he meets a stranger on the golf course he no longer calls himself a mortgage guy. 'Now I say I run a financial services business,' he said. 'I don't know why. It makes me feel better. I guess status.' Before, he added, when he said he was in the mortgage business, 'because of the way I look they say, 'Second mortgages? Sub-prime?' '

Subject: The Strong Dollar! From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 15:11:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Notice by the way, the long term Treasury bond is still only at 4.4%. Interest rates are simply benign, and there is where the Federal reserve has leeway to raise but do little damage to growth. The dollar, again, is remarkably strong against the Euro and the Yen. Notice by the way, the long term Treasury bond is still only at 4.4%. Interest rates are simply benign, and there is where the Federal reserve has leeway to raise but do little damage to growth. The dollar, again, is remarkably strong against the Euro and the Yen.

Subject: Re: The Strong Dollar! From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 08:53:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Treasuries Poised for Worst Year Since 1999 as Fed Raises Rates Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury market is headed for its worst year since 1999 as Federal Reserve officials signal they will raise interest rates to keep near-record fuel prices from causing widespread inflation. Treasuries are down 1.15 percent since June, trimming the year-to-date gain to 2 percent, including reinvested interest, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data. The performance would be the worst since a 2.38 percent drop six years ago, when soaring stock prices and Fed rate increases cut demand for bonds. After the biggest surge in consumer prices in a quarter century in September, some of Wall Street's most bullish bond forecasters are having second thoughts. Merrill Lynch Chief North American Economist David Rosenberg in New York is among those who this month revised their estimates, saying the Fed will continue to lift rates into next year. Yields, which move inversely to bond prices, ``are headed higher largely as a result of the Fed increasing rates more than the market's priced in,'' said Jamie Jackson, who oversees trading of Treasuries at RiverSource Investments in Minneapolis, in an Oct. 21 interview. The firm manages $100 billion of bonds. A slump pushed the benchmark 10-year note's yield up about half a percentage point in the past seven weeks to 4.53 percent on Oct. 14, putting it within 0.16 percentage point of its high for the year. Two-year yields, more sensitive to Fed policy, hit a four-year high of 4.29 percent this month. Fed policy makers on Sept. 20 raised their target for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point for the 11th time since June 2004, bringing the rate to 3.75 percent. They meet twice more this year. Global Performance Returns this year trail only Japan among government bond markets, and compare with 3.50 percent in all of 2004 and 2.26 percent in 2003, according to Merrill Lynch index data. In the three years prior to 2003, returns averaged 10.6 percent. The 10-year note's yield fell last week to 4.39 percent as a slump in stock prices boosted demand for fixed-income assets. ``The breakdown we're seeing in the longer end of the Treasury market has more to go,'' said Sam Paddison, who oversees $120 billion as head of customized fixed income for Evergreen Investment Management Co. in Philadelphia. ``Inflationary expectations aren't reflected in prices.'' Investors demand higher yields to compensate for the risk that inflation will erode the value of their interest payments. Merrill's Rosenberg last week said 10-year Treasuries will yield 4.55 percent at year-end, compared with his prior forecast of 4.25 percent. A week earlier, he lifted his year-end target for the rate set by the Fed to 4.5 percent from 4 percent. Rosenberg is among the more accurate predictors of interest rates. At the start of the year, the 10-year note yielded 4.20 percent and he forecast it would end June at 3.95 percent, compared with the 4.70 percent median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It was 3.92 percent at mid-year. Joining In Economists at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York on Oct. 21 joined those at Merrill, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Banc of America Securities LLC that this month lifted their estimates for how many more times the Fed will raise rates. All of the firms are among the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the central bank. ``With the party going full blast in the housing, credit and bond markets, the Fed is more determined than ever to drain the punch bowl,'' Ethan Harris, Lehman's chief U.S. economist, said in a report. Harris raised his forecast for the Fed's benchmark rate in March to 4.75 percent from 4.5 percent. Ten-year note yields will rise to 4.8 percent next quarter, from a prior forecast of 4.7 percent, while two-year yields will climb to 4.6 percent, from 4.4 percent previously, he said. Futures Interest-rate futures in late August showed traders put the odds of a 4.25 percent year-end rate at less than 50 percent. The odds are now greater than 90 percent. They are fully pricing in a quarter-point increase to 4 percent on Nov. 1. The last time the gap between 10-year yields and the Fed's target rate was this narrow was mid-2001, when the central bank was in the midst of cutting borrowing costs. If the difference holds up through year-end, the 10-year note would yield about 4.90 percent, giving an investor who bought at the end of last week a loss of about 3.07 percent, or $307,000 per $10 million invested, according to Bloomberg calculations. Ten-year yields will be ``closer to 5 percent'' by February, said William Kohli, who manages $7 billion of bonds at Putnam Investments in Boston. A surge in gasoline and heating oil prices to records after Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29 caused prices paid by consumers to jump 1.2 percent in September, the most since March 1980, the Labor Department said Oct. 14. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is still low by historical standards. Prices on that basis rose 2 percent in September from a year earlier. Prior to 1999, core inflation hadn't been that low since 1966. Investor Confidence Investor confidence in the Fed's ability to keep core inflation from accelerating may limit any increase in long-term debt yields, boosting returns for investors. Ten-year yields are down from 4.76 percent when the Fed started lifting rates, and exceed core inflation by 2.4 percentage points, compared with an average of 2.9 percentage points over the past 10 years. ``The Fed does have credibility in terms of containing core inflation,'' Michael Materasso, who oversees $19 billion as head of fixed income at Fiduciary Trust Co. in New York, said on Oct. 20. Materasso said he pared his bet on higher yields when the 10- year yield reached 4.50 percent. Fed policy makers are concerned rising fuel prices may prompt consumers to seek wage gains, sparking an inflationary spiral. A Fed survey prepared for its next meeting on interest rates, released last week, said several U.S. regions ``indicated that input cost increases are being passed through to retail prices.'' Crude oil for December delivery rose 61 cents, or 1 percent, to $60.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures contracts have declined 14 percent since reaching a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30. ``Inflation in an underlying sense is not high now, but there is a risk that it could go higher,'' Fed Governor Donald Kohn said on Oct. 19.

Subject: Shanghai, a Far East Feast From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 14:26:35 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://travel2.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/travel/09shanghai.html October 9, 2005 Shanghai, a Far East Feast By R. W. APPLE Jr. MADE for trade, the modern city of Shanghai came into being in the second half of the 19th century as a commercial link with the West. British, French, German and American traders settled there, eventually followed by White Russian refugees. They built a metropolis with Asia's first telephones, running water and electric power, a city of drugs, warlords, brothels and legendary riches. And like all expatriates everywhere, they brought their tastes in food with them. To this day, the Shanghainese have an appetite for croissants and French pastry and for Russian borscht (luo song tang, or Russian soup, on menus) although many may well not know their precise origins. After 1949, the old hedonistic culture was gradually submerged in Communist conformity, with gray tunics and shabby state shops supplanting the chic boutiques and throbbing dance halls that gave Shanghai its reputation as 'the whore of the Orient.' By all accounts, food, and especially restaurant food, took a back seat to ideology. 'Ten years ago, a good restaurant was one that paid you,' said Don St. Pierre Jr., managing partner of ASC, China's leading wine importer, with only modest hyperbole. 'Now we're on the verge of being a world-class restaurant town.' Richard Bisset, another old China hand, said that 17 years ago, when he came to Shanghai, 'the Western food here ranged from Kobe beef to prawn thermidor. Full stop.' Today, Shanghai is again one of the most galvanic cities anywhere, with foreigners once more pouring in to seek their fortunes and the port seemingly on its way to becoming the world's busiest. It makes an old-timer like me long to be young again and live there to share in its drama. For 13 straight years, it has maintained a double-digit growth rate, as the largely vacant landscape on the eastern side of the Huangpu River has been magically transformed into the steel-and-glass financial center called Pudong. With more than 2,000 flamboyant skyscrapers, Shanghai is now a vertical village rather than the low-lying city of the 1930's, much of it built by Jewish merchants of Iraqi or Syrian origin like the Sassoons and Kadoories. The only echo of the Sassoons today is a Vidal Sassoon (no kin) hairdressing salon. But the Kadoories, who control the Hong-Kong-based Peninsula chain, are building a luxurious hotel on the Bund, the boulevard along the river. The slightly pompous colonial buildings lining the Bund already house some of the toniest of the city's new generation of international restaurants, including the Michael Graves-designed Jean-Georges. Renowned chefs and obscure entrepreneurs from Britain, Singapore, Australia, the United States and elsewhere have flocked to Shanghai on the heels of the bankers and brokers, eager to serve you Italian, Japanese, Thai, German or Mexican food. Foods from afar compete with heaping helpings of first-rate Chinese dishes, from Guangzhou, Sichuan, Hunan and of course Shanghai. Local river prawns, slow-cooked pork rump, hairy crabs (in season) and above all xiao long bao, the soup dumplings beloved in the United States, are all on offer in classic form. The culinary renaissance is one reason, in fact, for Shanghai's re-emergence as a prime tourist destination, along with the city's refreshing green 'lungs' - the many new parks and the thousands of plane trees in the former French Concession - its matchless new art museum, its Art Deco villas and office buildings, and the endless joie de vivre of its people. Gloomy, unsmiling and reluctant to make eye contact when my wife, Betsey, and I last visited the city a decade ago, they laugh and joke today, free at last to indulge in those old Shanghai pastimes, making money and spending it with abandon. On the second morning of our most recent stay in Shanghai, we ran into Jean-Georges Vongerichten and his right-hand man, Daniel Del Vecchio, at the Westin Hotel's startlingly polycultural breakfast buffet. That happy accident led to a sampling of Shanghainese food at its most down-to-earth at breakfast-time the next day. Near the corner of Changle Lu and Xiang Yang Bei Lu, not far from the museum, where banners were incongruously heralding an exhibition about Versailles and Louis XIV, we each polished off a half-dozen steamed, pork-filled soup dumplings, the size of a silver dollar, with perilously fragile skins, without spilling too much of the scalding liquid on our shirts. Unlike most of the other stalls, the place where we ate these actually had a few tables and stools, and even a sign outside. Its name: Maxim's. Thicker-skinned dumplings, sheng jian bao, fried cheek-to-cheek in shallow iron pans and then steamed, were dusted with chives and black sesame seeds. We followed instructions to dip them in the exceptional black Zhenjiang vinegar. Eye-poppingly good they were, too, although Jereme (pronounced Jeremy) Leung, a member of our noshing group, speculated slyly that the frying oil had not been changed in years. There were crepes at other stalls - delicate cong you bing, or scallion pancakes, and ji dan bing, a kind of breakfast burrito. To make that, a short-order wizard spread batter on a drum-shaped grill with what looked like a painter's spatula, broke an egg on top, added a dab of fermented soybean sauce and threw in some chives, coriander and mustard-plant leaves. The whole process took just a minute. Then he slapped either a salty cruller called you tiao or a piece of crisply fried bean curd skin across the finished product and rolled it up like a scroll. Mr. Vongerichten, in seventh heaven, pronounced it 'the best breakfast in the world.' By that time, I felt fat as a Strasbourg goose, but my eating buddies insisted that we stop at a 24-hour noodle shop on Shandong Zhonglu, behind the Westin, to watch a particularly deft cook do his stuff. 'No need to eat,' said Mr. Leung, a Hong Kong-born Chinese. 'Just watch.' Sure. We watched, all right, as a huge ball of dough was kneaded and rolled and tossed and hacked into ragged little squares that reminded Mr. Vongerichten, an Alsatian, of spaetzle, and twisted and stretched and flipped and folded into long, supple noodles. But of course I had to sample a bowl of beef noodle soup, lightly curry-flavored, before we left, and of course that spoiled my lunch. Bao Luo, in the French Concession, is all you might expect a Chinese restaurant to be - big, raucous, smoke-filled, dingy despite the marble on the walls - and more. It's open until 6 in the morning, and it often features a parade of fashionistas in thigh-high white boots around midnight. Its menu provides a primer of home-style Shanghainese cooking, however bizarre the English translations (for example, 'lima bean curd with crisp hell'). Cold dishes first - amazingly tender, custardlike tofu, a reproach to the flannel-like stuff often served outside China, topped with coriander and chili oil; ma lan tou, made from the crunchy stems of the boltonia flower (a member of the aster family that I grow, but don't eat, at my farm in Pennsylvania); 'drunken' chicken, marinated in rice wine; and kaofu, bran cubes flavored by five-spice soy sauce. This is no cuisine for the squeamish. Warm plates filled the table as six of us struggled to keep up. Ti pang, the fabulously fatty Shanghainese pork shank, was luscious as foie gras. (One of our six, Tina Kanagaratnam, a Singapore-born food writer, told me, 'Shanghai girls say that if you don't eat the fat you won't have good skin.') Crystal river prawns, bathed in egg whites before stir-frying, and yu xiang qiezi bao, spicy caramelized eggplant, were among my favorites. Patrick Cranley, Ms. Kanagaratnam's husband, a fluent Mandarin-speaker from Baltimore, noted that this was originally a Sichuan dish, long ago adopted by Shanghai as its own. 'Something in the Shanghainese character,' he said, 'helps them to absorb, adapt and flourish.' Having emerged intact from Shanghainese culinary primary school, we moved directly to postgraduate studies at an unprepossessing four-table hole in the wall called Chun, a block from the Jin Jiang Hotel, where Chou En-lai and Richard M. Nixon issued their momentous communiqué in 1972. Susan Shirk, the State Department's top China expert in the Clinton administration, recommended it, and Dingli Shen, the Shanghai-born, Princeton-educated executive dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, joined us there. He had never been before, he said, but by the time we finished a lunchtime feast, which cost less than $8 a head, under the naked, unforgiving fluorescent bulbs, he assured us that he had never eaten better in his native city. That didn't surprise us a bit. Not after Lan-Lan, the round-faced, T-shirt-clad 47-year-old proprietor, who resisted all attempts to discover her formal name, had brought out her wares: among other treats, more heavenly tofu, served with salted duck egg yolk and clam strips; thin-shelled river shrimp, roe still attached, steamed with ginger; whole pomfret braised in soy (with plenty of Shanghai's beloved sugar added) and the pièce de résistance, giant snails whose meat had been removed, then chopped, mixed with pork and spices and reinserted into the shells. I don't know which was better, the fragrant juices we sucked out of the shells or the meat we pried out with toothpicks. 'To be born in Shanghai is a great privilege,' Dr. Shen mused. 'You get better education, better economic opportunity, better health care, better everything than elsewhere in China.' To which I added, 'and some of the world's best food.' Soup dumplings are the province of specialists armed with minuscule rolling pins. The most famous of all are made at the three-story Nan Xiang restaurant, adjacent to the ancient Yu Garden, whose teahouse served as the inspiration for millions of pieces of 'willow pattern' china. All the world adores Nan Xiang, so reserve a day ahead, or resign yourself to a long wait. Try in any case to wangle a seat on the third floor, the only place where the most scrumptious dumplings are served - those whose filling includes crab roe as well as the usual crabmeat, pork and scallions. Two things set great dumplings apart from ordinary ones: the quality of the 'soup,' or broth, which at Nan Xiang has the mellow richness of the best veal stock, and the texture of the dumpling skins, which at Nan Xiang are translucently, meltingly thin. Wobbling winningly in their steamer, these tidbits are rivaled in Shanghai only by those at Din Tai Fung, a branch of a legendary Taipei dumpling house, which also has an outlet in Arcadia, Calif., near Los Angeles. In the rush to modernize, much of picturesque old Shanghai has been bulldozed, though not the junk shops of Fangbang Lu, where Betsey bought a crystal ball, perhaps in hopes of divining the future of this remarkable city, where communism and capitalism thrive alongside one another against all the odds. In Xintiandi, near there, renovated and reconstructed shikumen (stone-gated) houses have been grouped into a shopping, strolling and dining complex. Wildly popular with Chinese as well as with foreign visitors, it is Shanghai's first big stab at the adaptive reuse of old buildings. They sometimes call Shanghai Shang-buy, and in Xintiandi you can buy minimalist handbags and sleek silk pajamas with jade buttons at Annabel Lee, velvet blazers and feathered hats at Xavier, and modern design from Scandinavia, Thailand, Italy and even China at Simply Life. You can drink coffee, nibble glorious pastries and buy hand-made chocolates at Visage. You can have a drink at TMSK, sitting on crystal stools at a crystal bar, or at nearby Zin (short for Zinfandel), a nifty wine bar. Xin Ji Shi is the serious-chow champ of Xintiandi, whose name means 'new heaven and earth.' It may well serve the best hong shao rou, or red-cooked pork, in town, made from cubed pork belly bathed in a sauce made from star anise, sugar and Shanghai soy sauce, which is considered China's finest. The décor may be upscale, nouvelle Shanghai, all burnished wood and smoky glass panels, but the cooking is traditional. Our meal at Xin Ji Shi was also memorable for a basket brimming with big, rosy prawns, roast chicken and dried chilies and for a bottle of 1993 Corton brought by Mr. St. Pierre, much less so for an eel dish totally overwhelmed by a sweet, sludgy sauce. Hong Kong, in the form of the handsome glass-and-granite Crystal Jade dim sum emporium, is just a few steps away from Xin Ji Shi. All the southern Chinese favorites - including char siu bao (barbecued pork buns), shrimp-filled har gow and egg tarts, among many others - are prepared to order and served at once, not rolled through the dining room on carts. But this is Shanghai, so there are also more northern delights like crispy won tons with hot chili sauce and, of course, soup dumplings. All are light and delicate, altogether first rate. You can eat modern Sichuan food at South Beauty's four locations and carefully made vegetarian dishes at Vegetarian Lifestyle's three. But if pressed for time, I would make a beeline for Guyi, which wins as many points for its chic décor, featuring photos of the Shanghai that was, and its smiling (indeed giggling) service from young women as for its delicious Hunanese food. Not every dish is a flamethrower, which is as things should be. Among the high spots of a meal that balanced texture, color and intensity of flavor with unusual finesse: a great heap of green beans flavored by smoky Hunan ham; a short-rib hot pot with ginger, garlic and chilies; and fried prawns on a skewer. Unless you like to drink at altitude or crave a steak (in which case head for the upper floors of the Grand Hyatt Hotel, housed in the 54th to 87th floors of the Jinmao Tower building), there's no real need to visit Pudong. Stay on the western side of the river and do your gawking and talking there. For location, location, etc., you can't match Michelle Garnaut's groundbreaking M on the Bund, opened in 1999. With a heart-stopping view of Pudong's sci-fi skyline right there in front of you, as bold as a billboard, and the Bund's brightly illuminated buildings curving away to your left and right, M's seventh-floor terrace is as fine a perch as Shanghai affords. On balmy nights, moneyed visitors and local movers and shakers still throng it, with their champagne flutes or superbly made dry martinis in hand. Ms. Garnaut, an Australian long resident in China, serves mostly old-fashioned European food, some of it made from prime local ingredients - opulent Chinese foie gras; crisp-skinned roast suckling pig; and (during their brief season) sensationally sweet peaches from Nanhui, like the ones often depicted on famille-rose porcelain. 'We're proud not to be on the cutting edge,' she told me. Fair enough. But the jelly with the foie gras was much too sweet for us, the salt-baked lamb was too salty, and the kitchen seemed to lack the consistency that characterizes some competitors, notably the big, buzzy restaurants at Three on the Bund, a converted bank building. The dining room of one of them, Laris, is drenched in white - white marble, white tablecloths, white orchids. 'The food and clients provide the color here,' said the man at its helm, David Laris, formerly chef at Mezzo in London. As befits someone of Greek ancestry, he serves great fish, including raw oysters from three continents, scallops with basil and Kalamata olives, and a fabulously earthy cauliflower and caviar soup, not unlike the brew served by Jean Joho in Chicago. For those who require turf with their surf, there's also a delicious cross-cultural pairing of five-spiced venison with Vietnamese banana leaf salad. And for the sweet of tooth, Mr. Laris makes a remarkable panna cotta flavored with pandanus leaves, which lend a subtle, vanilla-like taste. Jean-Georges gave us a nearly flawless meal. After a single Kumamoto oyster with a coronet of Champagne jelly and raw tuna with a dab of mayonnaise made with Thai chili paste, the chef de cuisine, Eric Johnson, sent out an exquisite dish of cubed raw kingfish with Taiwanese mangoes (imported under a new trade agreement) and a chili-lemon granita. Peppery, sweet and acidic, yellow, orange and red, in one bite. Dish after dish of similar excellence followed, as lunch stretched toward the cocktail hour while boats of every kind chugged along the river outside the restaurant's windows - more foie gras, with star anise flowers; peaches and endive hearts with pistachios and goat cheese dressing; crab dumplings with black pepper oil and tiny local peas; sweet scallops from Dalian, a port in north China, seared and paired with clams in a tomato jus; stunningly fresh steamed snapper on a basil purée, topped with cucumber strips for crunch; and Jason Casey's irresistible desserts, which coaxed every nuance of flavor from lush tropical fruits. The service in the elegant copper-and-blue dining room was silent and skillful, which is more than one can say about the Whampoa Club, in the same building, where the gifted 34-year-old Mr. Leung presides. His Normandie-like setting, with shantung silk, ostrich skin and hammered metal panels, is elegant enough. But the reception was disorganized, the waitresses' heels clattered intrusively on bare floors, and language skills were so rudimentary that we were utterly bewildered until a supervisor came to our assistance. This is perfectly acceptable at $10 a head, but not at $100. Mr. Leung's modern take on Chinese regional food is delightful. His caramelized minisquid reminded me why I was once addicted to Cracker Jacks. His 'lion's head' pork meatballs came in a sumptuous winter-melon broth, with enoki mushrooms impishly used as 'eyes.' His king prawns dazzled in a mild wasabi sauce. His crisp, spicy eel strips and smoked fish showed the potential of river fish, treasured in Shanghai. 'We begin with traditional peasant-style recipes and try to update and refine them,' he said. 'Take the smoked fish. Usually, it's fried in the morning and left to cool all day. It often tastes stale, even rancid. We fry it to order and serve it warm, not at room temperature. But the prawns - those, I must confess, are pure Jereme.'

Subject: Re: Shanghai, a Far East Feast From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Oct 24, 2005 at 19:36:20 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Absolutely amazing to read this. Many similar stories about cities such as Shenzen, Guangzhou and Beijing. But what about the Western cities? What about the villages? In fact what about the overwhelming majority of Chinese? Did you know in China they have the amazing system of border controls and check points ensuring that feedom of movement is strictly regulated. Poor people are not allowed to move from one place to another. In fact I have more access traveling across China than the mjority of local nationals. Only the people who are lucky to have been born in the (now) cool cities have an opportunity to enjoy the wealth of the modern era, the rest have been disenfranchised. Hhhmm let's take another look at this: no vote, groups areas act is enforced, government sponsored system ensuring the mjority stay in poverty while the minority get richer. I thought appartheid was over?

Subject: A Child of Mao's Revolution From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 14:24:41 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/06/arts/dance/06kour.html March 6, 2005 Dancing a Dream, From a Child of Mao's Revolution By GIA KOURLAS NOMAD: THE RIVER Yin Mei LIKE millions of girls who had come before her, the choreographer Yin Mei was staunchly devoted to her diary. But the thoughts she poured onto its pages were drastically different from those of a typical angst-ridden adolescent. She grew up in a town in central China during the Cultural Revolution. At age 7, she, along with her classmates, started a journal to record, as she puts it, 'her progress along the revolutionary road.' 'We were the children of Chairman Mao,' Ms. Yin, now 42, said recently. 'We wanted to offer our life to him. It was real. From the ages of 7 to 14, I sincerely wanted to become a farmer or a soldier. During the Cultural Revolution, everybody spoke the same meaningless words. But as I was reading my later diaries, I can tell I started to have other feelings and sensations. I started to think about myself.' Around the same time she began her diary, Ms. Yin watched a ballet film and fell in love with dance. One of her most treasured childhood memories occurred when her father surprised her with a pair of ballet slippers. 'As students, we had to work on the farm to help with harvest time,' she said. 'We were basically doing all kinds of things except studying in school. I came home from the country and saw this pair of slippers. I was so excited that I did not even wash my feet. From then on, I was dancing.' During the Cultural Revolution, Ms. Yin, whose outward fragility belies a tougher inner core, performed with a traditional Chinese company before moving to New York in 1985. In her newest piece, 'Nomad: The River,' to be performed at Dance Theater Workshop beginning on Wednesday, she strives to resolve the experiences of her childhood, not through a linear depiction but through strange and bewitching imagery that is pieced together like a dream. 'Nomad,' a quartet, features a set by Christopher Salter so extravagant it could be taken for an installation. Mr. Salter collaborated with the choreographer William Forsythe and the director Peter Sellars before helping to found Sponge, an art and research organization. He met Ms. Yin last spring at Brown University, where he was teaching a course in performance technology. He watched a showing of 'Nomad,' which she had staged with a group of students there, and was riveted. 'I've worked on and seen a lot of dance, and what impressed me about Yin Mei's work was the sheer visceral quality of it,' Mr. Salter said. 'There's very little work happening where you really feel it in your gut. I was also interested in the mix of vocabulary. You see edges of Asian movement traditions, but you also see a lot of German expressionist dance and European influences. I was struck by the fact that it was very organic. It's rooted in a real place.' The title 'Nomad: The River' refers to the Yellow River in China and the Ganges in India, both of which Ms. Yin considers at once sacred and destructive. The work begins and ends with voice-overs taken from Ms. Yin's diaries as well as revolutionary slogans, anchoring the dance in a concrete historical moment. The middle section wordlessly evokes horror and fantasy. 'I use words but not details in the piece,' Ms. Yin said. 'It doesn't become entirely personal. In the end, I want to establish a sense of place to make the audience feel something, but the work is very abstract. ' 'Nomad' is about a journey on a spiritual path. To me, a journey causes you to look inward, and my experiences are in my memory. I wanted to look deep and to create something that would help me learn about myself.' The set comprises 27 fiberglass screens, each three feet wide and seven feet high, which hang in three rows along bars that stretch the width of the stage. Black-and-white images depict barren trees, snow scenes or light reflecting in a pool of water. 'We've pushed the contrast ratio so they look like Japanese or Chinese woodcuts,' Mr. Salter said. 'They're very graphic and textural.' The goal is to create something akin to a three-dimensional forest. 'The screens are both opaque and translucent,' Mr. Salter said. 'This way, they hold an image but also allow it to seep through to the next screen and the next. We're being very judicious with how we use the images. They materialize very slowly. A white tree appears in a black field and then another and another, until the whole space seems to turn into water. We're using technology to create a set of spaces that deal with consciousness and dreams and a kind of shifting reality.' Mr. Salter's score, which swells and recedes throughout, flitters between electronic and natural sounds. 'It opens up a world, yet you're not sure what that world is,' he said. 'You hear jungle noises and cicadas, but then there are strange low rumbles. At times, it will feel like there's an earthquake erupting beneath you.' The dancers supplement the score by striking pieces of sheet metal, simulating claps of thunder. While much of the imagery in 'Nomad' is purposely mysterious, for Ms. Yin the alarming noise evokes a devastating childhood memory. One particularly hot July day when she was 12 or 13, a young man was executed, and she and a friend, curious, followed the crowd to the scene. 'I saw an old lady hobbling by with bound feet,' Ms. Yin said. 'I remember the way she tried to run. This was the mother collecting her son's body. Suddenly, very strong thunder started, and the sun started to shine as big raindrops began to fall. Everybody started running backward, because they did not want to get wet. But it was also that nature happened, and they were afraid of ghosts. 'My mother always said when people do not treat others well, heaven will cry. How could the sun come out when it was raining? It really meant that this man, whose only crime was that he was a counterrevolutionary, should not have been killed. So thunder is very strong for me.'

Subject: Valuations From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 11:03:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There is a possible problem here I do not properly understand. The S&P stock index has a price earning ratio of 17.9, a return on equity of 19.0% and an earnings growth rate of 12.6%. The Vanguard REIT index has a price earning ratio of 40.5, a return on equity of 8.8%, and an astonishing -5.9% earnings growth rate. The figures for return on equity and earnings growth rate are 3 years averages.

Subject: REITS From: Terri To: Terri Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 11:10:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Yes, yes, yes, I know the REIT index is not supposed to be a proxy for the market for homes, but I have found the index a fine proxy for the last decade. What are we to make of the decline in the earnings growth rate for REIT that extends more than 4 1/2 years? REITs are making returns based on increasing prices for property, not increasing earning from property operations. Puzzling.

Subject: Stocks and Bonds From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 10:37:32 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Though the S&P is down -1.6% a year over the last 5 years, and down -1.5% this year, the S&P has been steadily climbing from the low of October 2002 and valuation have much improved. Also, middle and small cap stocks have been far more robust. Value stock have been more robust. Sectors such as real estate investment trusts and health care and energy are robust. There are also international stock markets. International markets have been broadly and deeply positive since 2003, and this year in domestic currencies though weakening the last couple of weeks. Also, there is the bond market. Long term interest rates are still remarkably low, though the bull market in bonds that began in January 2000 appears over. And, there is real estate which holds up here and though weakened in several countries has been a small growth problem so far. I am rather hopeful.

Subject: Health Insurance System From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 06:47:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.minvws.nl/en/themes/health-insurance-system/default.asp January 2, 2005 Health Insurance System: Theme Under the government’s plans a new health insurance system for curative healthcare for all residents of the Netherlands will come into force on 1 January 2006. Under the new Health Insurance Act (Zorgverzekeringswet) all residents are obliged to take out a health insurance. In the current situation, only employees within the meaning of the Sickness Benefit Act, people who are entitled to a social benefit and self-employed people with incomes below the maximum wage/income level are compulsorily insured under the Social Health Insurance Act (Ziekenfondswet). People with a higher income still have a choice: they can take out a health insurance or they can decide to go through life uninsured. Alongside there is a separate scheme for police officers and provincial and municipal civil servants. The new system is a private health insurance system with social conditions. The system will be operated by private health insurance companies that may make profits and pay dividends to shareholders. The companies are obliged to accept every resident in their area of activity. A system of risk equalisation makes the acceptance obligation possible and prevents direct or indirect risk selection. The insured pay a nominal premium to the health insurer. This premium can differ from health insurer to health insurer, but each health insurer will have the same premium for each policy type. Everyone with the same policy will pay the same insurance premium. The Health Insurance Act also provides for an income-related contribution to be paid by the insured. Employers will contribute by making a compulsory payment towards the income-related insurance contribution of their employees. The new health insurance comprises a standard package of essential healthcare. The package provides essential curative care tested against the criteria of demonstrable efficacy, cost effectiveness and the need for collective financing. The insured package follows on from the cover provided under the Social Health Insurance Act and the Medical Insurance Access Act 1998 at the time when the new Health Insurance Act comes into force. The latest information on developments surrounding the proposed Health Insurance Act can be found on the website www.zorgaanzet.nl

Subject: China Builds Its Dreams From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 06:33:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/18/business/worldbusiness/18bubble.html?ex=1287288000&en=890d6bf654360543&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 18, 2005 China Builds Its Dreams, and Some Fear a Bubble By DAVID BARBOZA SHANGHAI - Move over, New York. This year alone, Shanghai will complete towers with more space for living and working than there is in all the office buildings in New York City. That is in a city that already has 4,000 skyscrapers, almost double the number in New York. And there are designs to build 1,000 more by the end of this decade. China's real estate market is so hot that miniature cities are being created with artificial lakes, and the country's nouveau riche suddenly seem eager to put down as much as $5.3 million for a luxury apartment in skyscrapers with names like the Skyline Mansion. For decades after the Communists took over in 1949, there was relatively little housing construction or office building under central planning. But since the early 1990's, Shanghai and other cities have been making up for lost time. And this year the building boom is at a frenzy, with the nation expected to lay down the finishing blocks on 4.7 billion square feet or more of construction, a record, up from 2 billion in 1998. 'There's no doubt what is happening in parts of China is on a scale we've never seen before,' said Richard Burdett, professor of architecture and urbanism at the London School of Economics. 'But more importantly, it's the fastest pace of development in the past 50 or 100 years.' In Beijing, the remains of an old Taoist temple now stand in the middle of the parking lot of a new mall more than twice the size of the Mall of America. Big developers are acquiring huge swaths of prime land in the largest cities to build huge residential campuses with kitschy names like Cloudland Water Manor, Eastern Venice, Palais de Fortune and Skyway Oasis Garden. Such developments dwarf anything being built today in the West. 'I'm working on a master plan for a 46-kilometer riverfront area,' said Robert Egan, who runs a landscape architecture firm in Beijing called PlaceMakers. 'Scale like that doesn't happen in the U.S.' It is not uncommon to see a residential development with 10, 20 or even 30 identical high-rise apartment buildings clustered around sculpted green spaces and artificial waterways. For increasingly wealthy Chinese, the American dream of a home and a yard has become more like a French villa with a community lake, a town square, a post office, a hospital, a cinema, a church, a hotel, a shopping mall and, of course, a power plant. A top-of-the-line unit at one development project has a 25-acre palm-shaped artificial lake, which brochures say will feature docks with berths for private yachts. Prices are soaring. Luxury apartments in Shanghai and Beijing with names like Home of the Tycoons now sell for prices comparable to some high-end properties in New York. Rising prices have created a circus-like atmosphere in parts of China. Real estate fairs are mobbed, land speculation is rampant and some poor farmers dream about converting their wheat fields into the next Beverly Hills. Indeed, prices have risen so fast over the last few years and the pace of building has been so furious here and in other large cities that the government and some leading economists have been warning about a huge property bubble in China. The building boom is a principal reason that China is searching around the world for energy and natural resources: it needs the raw material to build new cities, and the energy to power them. That is helping drive up world commodity prices and threatening global environmental damage . China's heavy reliance on coal to power its overcharged economy has already made it the world's second-largest producer of greenhouse gases, after the United States. And the World Health Organization says China has 7 of the world's 10 most-polluted cities. The construction boom is also beginning to wipe out what little is left of the old China, alarming historic preservationists. Indeed, as the world's most-populous country, at 1.3 billion, rapidly modernizes and urbanizes, producing millions of new homeowners, its social and economic fabric is being fundamentally altered. China's housing rush is being fueled by mortgage rates around 5 percent and huge inflows of foreign capital. But the boom is also driven by landmark government housing reforms from the 1990's that for the first time since the Communist revolution of the late 1940's allowed Chinese to acquire their own homes rather than live in government housing. As a result of this privatization, thousands of new residential projects are rising in the bustling coastal provinces. And sprawling satellite towns and luxury villa developments are sprouting in what was once farmland. This may just a suggestion of what is ahead. China expects 75 million more farmers to move to cities over the next five years, amounting to one of the biggest mass migrations in history, according to CLSA, a brokerage house specializing in the Asia-Pacific region. 'China's demand for housing is just getting going,' says Andy Rothman, a CLSA analyst in Shanghai. The boom is most evident in the largest cities like Beijing, which will be host for the 2008 Olympics and is now draped in construction projects that are straining water and power supplies. Every big city seems to have plans for a central business district. And every big housing project seems to have a Phase 1, 2 and 3. 'Everyone wants to build a Manhattan,' said Jun Xia, a principal in the Shanghai office of Gensler, a global architecture and design firm. 'In China, I say 'smaller, smaller' and the clients say 'wider, wider.' ' Some of the greatest financial rewards have been going to the country's new real estate tycoons - people like Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin in Beijing, and Wang Shi in Shenzhen. A property tycoon in Tianjin, Sun Hongbin, once served a two-year prison term for embezzlement but now graces the cover of magazines like China Entrepreneur. It is not surprising that in a country where 170 metropolitan areas have more than a million people, according to government figures, everyone seems to want to be a developer. State-owned oil and steel giants, automobile companies, shipbuilders and even Communist Party newspapers are creating real estate subsidiaries. The developer of the Fortune Residence in Shanghai, a high-end property, is a subsidiary of People's Daily, the leading newspaper of the Communist Party. And China Central Place in Beijing is being developed by Guohua Electric, a power company that for 50 years has occupied land in an area the city recently designated as its new central business district. Guohua's real estate arm is now building a $1.2 billion complex that consists of three high-rise office buildings, a 1.8-million-square-foot shopping mall, 1,300 luxury apartments, two five-star hotels and a man-made lake and river walk. Foreigners are also scrambling to enter the Chinese real estate market. Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch have invested in property. And Morgan Stanley has acquired about $700 million worth of commercial real estate this year in Shanghai. The city says it now has more than 4,000 skyscrapers - buildings 18 stories or higher - far more than New York, according to Emporis, a global real estate research group based in Germany. Also considering investments here are Simon Property, one of the world's biggest retail developers; Triple Five Group, developer of the Mall of America; and a Japanese real estate tycoon, Minoru Mori, who is spending nearly $1 billion to build one of the world's tallest buildings - the 1,614-foot Shanghai World Financial Center in the Pudong district. There is, of course, a dark side to this real estate boom. In the scramble to reallocate land and create boomtowns, China has spent much of the last decade demolishing millions of old homes and buildings and relocating tens of millions of people, many against their will. And there are broader risks. The Chinese government is concerned that soaring prices might overheat the nation's economy and even threaten social stability. It moved this year to impose new taxes and other tough administrative measures aimed at cooling off the property sector. Housing sales have slowed since June. But in recent months, real estate construction has picked up steam again, according to UBS. And that growth is bolstering new demand for energy and raw material. China is already the world's largest producer and consumer of steel, cement and coal. In his report, 'China Eats the World,' Mr. Rothman of CLSA predicted that in coming years, 'the Chinese dragon will stay very, very hungry.' Many Chinese are acting as if the housing boom will not fizzle any time soon. The economy is soaring, income is rising, Ikeas and Wal-Marts are popping up in second-tier cities and tens of millions of people are giddy about the prospects of owning their own homes, driving their own cars and adopting a more modern lifestyle. 'You know for a half-century, nothing was built in China,' Mr. Jun of Gensler said. 'Now there's a lot of excitement and demand for new houses, and excitement about a new way to live.'

Subject: Emma has returned From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 13:54:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thanks Emma - excellent series of articles.

Subject: Classes in Chinese Grow From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 06:27:54 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/15/national/15chinese.html?ex=1287028800&en=aa71a6eed00d7e81&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 15, 2005 Classes in Chinese Grow as the Language Rides a Wave of Popularity By GRETCHEN RUETHLING CHICAGO - The future of foreign language study in the United States might be glimpsed here at Louisa May Alcott Elementary School, in a classroom where lanterns with cherry blossoms and pandas dangle overhead, and a paper dragon, an American flag and a Chinese flag hang from the wall. One recent morning, a class of third graders bowed to one another and introduced themselves in Chinese, and a class of fourth graders practiced writing numbers in Chinese characters on marker boards. Chinese classes began at Alcott in February, but more students are already choosing it over Spanish. 'Chinese is our new baby,' said David J. Domovic, the principal at Alcott, on the North Side, one of 20 public schools in the city offering instruction in Mandarin. 'Everybody just wants in.' With encouragement from the Chinese and American governments, schools across the United States are expanding their language offerings to include Chinese, the world's most spoken tongue, not to mention one of its most difficult to learn. Last month, the Defense Department gave a $700,000 grant to public schools in Portland, Ore., to double the number of students studying Chinese in an immersion program. In May, Senators Joseph I. Lieberman, Democrat of Connecticut, and Lamar Alexander, Republican of Tennessee, introduced a bill to spend $1.3 billon over five years on Chinese language programs in schools and on cultural exchanges to improve ties between the United States and China. The bill has been referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. After 2,400 schools expressed interest, Advanced Placement Chinese classes will be offered in high schools around the country starting next year. Beijing is paying for half the $1.35 million to develop the classes, including Chinese teachers' scholarships and developing curriculums and examinations, said Trevor Packer, executive director of the Advanced Placement Program at the College Board. 'Many Americans are beginning to realize the importance of speaking Chinese,' Zhu Hongqing, consul at the Chinese Education Consulate here, said. 'We need to provide as much powerful support as we can.' The number of Chinese language programs around the country, from elementary school through adult programs, has tripled in 10 years, said Scott McGinnis, an academic adviser at the Defense Language Institute in Washington. 'Chinese is strategic in a way that a lot of other languages aren't,' because of China's growth as an economic and military force, Mr. McGinnis said. 'Whatever tensions lie between us, there is a historical longstanding mutual fascination with each other,' he said. 'Planning to be ready to engage with them rather than only thinking of them in terms of a challenge or a competitor is the smart thing to do.' Up to 50,000 students are studying Chinese in elementary and secondary schools in the United States, experts estimate. Many are in cities like New York and San Francisco that have large numbers of Chinese-American students, and many take lessons after school or on weekends. The Chicago program stands out because it is entirely in public schools during the regular school day and primarily serves students who are not of Chinese descent. Mayor Richard M. Daley, a vocal supporter of the program, said proficiency in Chinese would be critical in understanding the competition. 'I think there will be two languages in this world,' Mr. Daley said. 'There will be Chinese and English.' From an all-black elementary school on the West Side to a nearly all-Hispanic elementary school on the South Side to more diverse schools throughout the city, some 3,000 students from kindergarten through high school are learning Chinese. The Chinese Education Ministry has called the program a model for teaching students who are not of Chinese descent. The ministry donated 3,000 textbooks to the school system last year. The program has expanded from three schools in 1999 to 20 this year and is scheduled to add five by the end of the school year. 'They have a great international experience right in their own classroom,' said Robert Davis, manager of the district's Chicago Chinese Connections Program, which seeks to develop skills to help students compete in the world marketplace. 'We want them to meet on an equal playing field.' Some parents here worry at first about how relevant the Chinese classes are and whether they will be too difficult. The Foreign Service Institute, which trains American diplomats, ranks Chinese as one of the four most time-intensive languages to learn. An average English speaker takes 1,320 hours to become proficient in Chinese, compared with 480 hours in French, Spanish or Italian, the institute says. Sevtap Guldur, 31, said she and her daughter Sahire, a fourth grader at Alcott, looked over the unfamiliar Chinese characters before deciding whether to take the class. 'If you're ready to learn that, go for it,' Ms. Guldur said she told her daughter. Sahire, who is fluent in Turkish, said it was her favorite class. At Alcott, 160 students from kindergarten to fifth grade are studying Spanish, compared with 242 taking Chinese, although not without occasional frustration. 'Do we have to do it in Chinese?' a third grader asked during a recent exercise, perhaps missing the point of the class. Raul Freire, 9, a fourth grader fluent in Spanish, said he taught words to his mother so she could better communicate with Chinese-speaking customers at the bank where she works. 'Mostly everybody in the school wants to take Chinese,' Raul said. 'I think about being a traveler when I grow up, so I have to learn as many languages as I can.' Adriana Freire, 33, Raul's mother, who is from Ecuador, said the skills would help her son be a better competitor in the job market. 'I never thought that he was going to be able to do something like that,' Ms. Freire said. Most of the 10 elementary and 10 high schools in the program here offer the language four times a week for 40 minutes a day. Each school decides how to fit the class in the school day, with some taking time from classes like physical education, music and art to make room. Chicago has a waiting list of schools that want to offer Chinese. The main obstacle is a lack of teachers certified by an American college, a requirement of the No Child Left Behind law, Mr. Davis said. 'It's hard when we can't hire a teacher that is qualified because of that missing certification,' he said. The shortage of teachers is common throughout the United States, said Michael Levine, executive director of education at the Asia Society in New York. Six states have signed or plan to sign agreements with the Chinese government to import teachers from China and send teachers from the United States to China for training, Mr. Levine said. 'Eventually,' he said, 'we're going to have to homegrow our own.'

Subject: Foreign Companies in China From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 06:26:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/15/business/15compute.html?ex=1287028800&en=f532c9313107f24c&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 15, 2005 For Foreign Companies in China, a Rising Yuan Is Hard to Swallow By DAVID BARBOZA SHANGHAI - At the Parlex Corporation's factory in the western part of this city, about 500 workers are producing millions of flexible circuit boards that can be used in everything from smart cards and mobile phones to inkjet printers. Bolstered by China's low-cost manufacturing model, this factory and two sister operations not far from here are showcases for an American company that has otherwise struggled to lower costs back home. But with the United States Treasury secretary, John W. Snow, in Beijing to press the Chinese government to allow its currency, the yuan or renminbi, to further appreciate against the dollar, Parlex and hundreds of other large manufacturers operating in China once again face the prospect of higher prices for their goods sold abroad, and thus shrinking profit margins. 'If the renminbi continues to appreciate, that could have a significant impact on us,' said Alan Wong, general manager of Parlex's Shanghai subsidiaries. 'That's something we really don't want to see.' Last summer, faced with mounting pressure because of its huge trade surpluses with the rest of the world, China ended its longtime currency peg to the dollar and allowed the renminbi to appreciate by about 2 percent, to settle at 8.1 to the dollar. China says the renminbi now floats against a basket of major currencies. But since July, the renminbi has barely budged. And that has helped renew trade tensions. Some American officials say the revaluation was too meager to make a difference in global trade. Yet the Chinese government has insisted that while currency reform is under way, no one should expect further revaluations in the near future. Those remarks have helped fan anti-China sentiment in the United States from those who believe Chinese exporters have an unfair trade advantage. Mr. Snow is leading a delegation that hopes to persuade Chinese officials to ease currency controls. The group includes Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman. Indeed, the United States just reported a $59 billion trade deficit in August. And imports from China reached a record $22.4 billion. But Beijing worries that sharp currency moves could be too much of a shock for the economy, perhaps even forcing companies to lay off workers. Some economists say China's golden years are already coming to an end for foreign manufacturers here. 'The big question is what will happen over the next few years,' said Jonathan Anderson, the chief economist in Asia for UBS. 'Wages and costs are going up in China. The economy is already past its peak. This is no longer the easy money you had in 2002 and 2003.' There are fears that if China's currency appreciates markedly, some manufacturers will be forced to raise prices or shift production to other low-cost regions like India or Southeast Asia. Multinational companies in China are already drawing up contingency plans. If the renminbi continues to appreciate, 'it will have a big impact on every company that has an operation in China,' said Li Shenghai, a finance director at the Samsung Group, which has more than 50,000 employees in China. The hardest hit are expected to be thousands of companies in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan that are important suppliers to Western companies like Gap, Wal-Mart and Costco. 'This is basically the beginning,' said Lin Chungyu, a vice chairman for the Taiwanese Business Association in the city of Dongguan, one of China's biggest electronics manufacturing centers. Appreciation 'will have a large impact on Taiwanese manufacturers.' Wall Street economists are forecasting that over the next couple of years, China's currency will continue to rise against the dollar, perhaps as much as 15 percent, making Chinese-made products more costly for Americans and other foreigners to buy. For consumers in America and elsewhere, this could mean moderately higher prices for everything from television sets to toys and clothing. Here in the vibrant Yangtze River Delta region, where production plants hum year-round, manufacturers are worried that the latest currency dispute could further erode their profitability. Take Parlex, for instance, which exports about 90 percent of the circuit boards it makes in China to Europe, the United States and other parts of Asia. A Nasdaq-listed maker of circuit boards based in Methuen, Mass., Parlex came to China a decade ago to build a lower-cost factory to make its flexible circuits for automotive and telecommunications companies. While its American parent has struggled to develop sophisticated circuit boards for the military, the Shanghai subsidiaries have amassed large profits selling to companies that produce consumer electronics. Parlex, which recently agreed to be acquired by Johnson Electric, a Hong Kong company, has used its low-cost labor force (workers here in Shanghai make less than $1 an hour) to compete with companies from Japan and Taiwan. And now, Parlex sells flexible circuit boards, which are used to connect various electronic devices, to companies like Hewlett-Packard and Sony Ericsson. Last year, the Shanghai subsidiaries were the most profitable divisions of Parlex. Naturally, it is worried that those profits could erode. One problem is that Parlex borrows much of its working capital - about $10 million a year - from local banks in renminbi. Wages and overhead costs like water and electricity are also paid for in renminbi, making payments more costly in dollars. 'It won't put us under, but it could hurt,' said Mr. Wong, 53, who has led operations in Shanghai for nearly a decade. 'We have to see what our competitors do. We might be able to pass a little along to our customers but if we increase our costs we could lose some business.'

Subject: China's Factories Humming, and Hiring From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 06:22:58 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/21/business/21consumers.html?ex=1287547200&en=8bdfae11ef7806d0&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 21, 2005 Consumer Demand at Home Keeps China's Factories Humming, and Hiring By KEITH BRADSHER GUANGZHOU, China - Until this summer, the Kaierlai Sports Goods Company in Shishi, China, depended heavily on exports of its windbreakers to Germany. But when the European Union reimposed import quotas and abruptly halted the shipments this summer, Kaierlai did not miss a beat. It stepped up sales of windbreakers within China so quickly that not only did it not lay off any of its 1,000 workers this autumn, it will hire another 1,000 when a second factory opens next year. 'We are selling to the local market instead,' said Cai Hui-zhao, the company's sales manager. 'Buying power is stronger than before, and people have more money to spend on clothes.' Kaierlai's success underlines a growing force in China's economy: consumers. During his weekend visit to Beijing, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow shifted the Bush administration's emphasis away from demanding that China let its currency appreciate and toward asking China to encourage consumer spending - including buying goods from the United States. But the new American stance may be a case of pushing on an open door: consumer spending in China is already surging with considerable government help and approval. After a quarter-century of growth powered largely by exports, China is showing signs of opening a new chapter of strong growth, this time propelled by domestic spending. If China can make a smooth transition from export-led growth to consumer-driven growth, it will have managed a feat that has eluded many of Asia's earlier rising powers. Japan, South Korea and Thailand, in particular, all suffered serious economic reversals in the 1990's after achieving remarkable gains through exports. But all three are now showing greater prosperity because of rising domestic demand, providing lessons that China may be able to draw on to avoid a long recession first. A year and a half after the Chinese government imposed strict bank lending controls and other measures to cool an overheating economy, the authorities in Beijing have begun easing up in other areas and are starting to let the good times roll. They have cut taxes for farmers and hinted at broader tax cuts, except for fuel, which could further stimulate the economy. 'Recent data suggest that domestic demand in China is on the mend,' wrote Liang Hong, a Goldman Sachs analyst, in a recent research report, 'supported by a quiet easing of monetary policy and other more domestic-demand-friendly policy changes.' Retail sales rose at a robust pace of 12.7 percent in September after August's 12.5 percent. And M2, a broad measure of the money supply, grew 17.9 percent in September and has been accelerating since spring. At the same time, wages and benefits are finally rising for many industrial workers after a decade of stagnation. A sharp rise in food prices in 2003 and early 2004 made being a farmer much more attractive and being a city dweller more costly, braking somewhat the migration to cities from farms. Factories, often pushed by regulators, began paying higher wages and offering more benefits. In interviews at the semiannual Canton Trade Fair here with executives from a range of industries, a picture emerged of a Chinese economy increasingly poised for further growth in spending. Provincial governments like Guangdong's are requiring more companies to offer at least the simplest medical care for workers and to make some contributions to provincial retirement plans. A high level of household savings - nearly half of household income for urban residents - has curtailed consumer spending. To the extent that benefits are provided, they reduce insecurity for workers and also the need for very large savings to prepare for retirement or a possible injury, freeing up money to spend. 'Everywhere in China, the benefits costs are increasing,' said Bruce Shui, a sales representative here for the Shanghai Dafa Electrical Equipment Company, which has raised the price of its waffle irons 3 percent this year, partly to cover the extra cost of benefits. Factories are sometimes resorting to surprising measures to lure workers, in another sign that Chinese workers, who are also consumers, have real bargaining power these days. Here in Southeastern China, companies like Zhong Ling Garment in Dongguan are even installing air-conditioning - an amenity not found in some older factories in the southern United States. The installation and the additional electricity have raised by 5 percent the cost of the women's panties sewn in the factory, said Ann Ho, Zhong Ling's chief sales manager. Yet despite being largely closed out of the United States market this year because of a trade dispute that has severely limited Chinese exports of women's underwear, the company felt compelled to provide a cooler factory. 'It was very hot. The workers were saying, 'I can't work because it's so hot,' ' Ms. Ho said. 'We are using a lot of electricity now that we have had to install air-conditioning.' Companies are able to afford things like air-conditioning for workers partly because banks in China appear to be fairly active in lending this year, with loans up 13.5 percent last month compared with a year earlier. 'If you've got assets, it's easy to get a loan,' said Zhao Jian-qian, the vice general manager of the Zhongshan Wanlitong Antenna Equipment Company, which manufactures television antennas in Zhongshan, a sprawling new city on the southeastern edge of Guangzhou. Some experts suggest that consumer spending has already been stronger than official statistics reveal and that household savings and exports have been weaker. Jonathan Anderson, a UBS economist in Hong Kong, said exports were overstated because to a considerable extent they involved little more than the snapping together of parts made elsewhere. Rising household savings, he said, mainly reflect a steep increase in Chinese housing prices in recent years. Exclude housing, and net household financial assets have not risen at all as a share of economic output since 1998, he calculated in a research report. Despite the strength in consumer spending, several obstacles remain to continued growth, economists said. Household borrowing has been gradually increasing and may yet reach levels at which Chinese families become wary of further debt. A slump in housing prices - developers in Shanghai have begun offering a variety of promotions to sell apartments that once sold in hours - could quickly depress spending. Chinese officials have disclosed this year a growing number of protests in rural areas and some in cities, raising the persistent question of whether China is as politically stable as it appears on the surface. Rising costs at home and possible protectionism overseas may also undermine China's competitiveness abroad, and that may affect consumer attitudes. Dave Kwon, a sales manager of the Qingdao Minplus Plastics Company in east central China, said prices had risen steeply for the raw plastic used in the bright orange-and-blue tarpaulins and dropcloths his company makes for painters. That makes it hard for Qingdao Minplus to cover labor costs and other expenses that are higher in China than in some of its even poorer neighbors. That could force the tarpaulin industry - and perhaps others - to move overseas someday. 'Now it's in China; maybe next it's in India or Vietnam,' Mr. Kwon said. But for now, many consumers in China and the companies that market to them appear confident and willing to spend. Standing next to rows of bright yellow, red, blue and pink windbreakers at the fair, Mr. Cai of Kaierlai hailed the sprawling size of his company's next factory and was almost cavalier about its former market. 'From time to time, there are some German clients who come by, and the first question they ask is, 'Do you have any quotas?' ' Mr. Cai said. He said Kaierlai had no quotas for Germany, but it would have no trouble selling its windbreakers anyway.

Subject: Chinese on a Grand Tour From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 06:18:28 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/21/business/21tourists.html?ex=1287547200&en=e380847e6a755e1f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 21, 2005 Chinese on a Grand Tour By WAYNE ARNOLD SINGAPORE - There was near-pandemonium at the L'Oréal cosmetics counter. With only hours before the end of their weeklong National Day holiday earlier this month, a busload of package tourists from China descended on a local department store here and began clamoring for all the skin refiner and 'wrinkle de-crease' they could buy. Karen Eu, one of three clerks attending to them and herself of Chinese ancestry, opened her eyes wide in exasperation. 'Oh, my God,' she said as she carried another fistful of Chinese yuan to the cash register. 'They talk so loud I have to yell until my throat hurts.' China's rapid economic growth has fostered a tourist boom among the mainland Chinese, with Southeast Asia the favorite destination, at least for now. The surge in package tour groups from China, an important source of income for the region, is also giving rise to an unflattering stereotype: the loud, rude and culturally naïve Chinese tourist. Sound familiar? The tide of travelers from China mirrors the emergence of virtually every group of overseas tourists since the Romans, from Britons behaving badly in the Victorian era and ugly Americans in postwar Europe to the snapshot-happy Japanese of the 1980's. So it is not much of a surprise that tourists from mainland China, often going abroad for the first time, are leaving similar complaints in their wake. But China is also manufacturing its own twist on the age-old tale, as became apparent in July when a group of more than 300 from China took umbrage at illustrations of a pig's face on their check-in vouchers at a casino resort in predominantly Muslim Malaysia. Although the resort said the drawings were meant only to distinguish their Chinese guests from Muslims, who cannot eat pork (or gamble), the Chinese demonstrated their pique by staging a sit-in in the hotel lobby and belting out their national anthem. It took 40 police officers with dogs to clear them out. Earlier that month, a group of mainland tourists staged a similar protest on a flight to Hong Kong from Bangkok after a departure delay kept them from making a day trip in Singapore. So far, only an estimated 2 percent of China's population ventures abroad each year, according to a recent report on China tourism by CLSA Emerging Markets in Hong Kong. But the World Tourism Organization predicts that China will become the world's fourth-largest source of overseas tourists by 2020. Groups from China began traveling to Europe last year. And if the United States agrees to grant visas to China's tourists, analysts say it will undoubtedly be a top draw. Clean and safe, Singapore, with its large Mandarin-speaking population, attracts more Chinese tourists than any of its Southeast Asian neighbors. Some China visitors are newly rich from big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, and stay in five-star hotels. Benefiting from rising incomes and more direct air connections, however, an increasing majority comes from the new middle class in China's provincial capitals. The typical visit to Singapore is just three days. The average income is still below $2,000 a year, and most tourists from China sign up for $250 package tours that whisk them through as many as five countries in a week. Many of these tours are what the industry calls zero-dollar tours, providing no profit margin. Instead, the agents make their money by diverting their groups to jewelers or restaurants that give them a commission on sales. 'We have to admit it was a problem for many years,' said Juthamas Siriwan, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, where zero-dollar tours have hurt the country's image in China. The Thai government is trying to crack down on zero-dollar tours. While some analysts say China's tourists have dubious benefits to regional tourism, others argue that they have a broader economic impact. Unlike Westerners or Japanese who splurge on expensive resorts and spend their entire vacation sunbathing, they say, the Chinese devote a greater proportion of their holiday time to sightseeing and shopping. China's tourists stand apart from other tourists in other ways, say members of Singapore's hospitality industry. 'They're more demanding,' said Johnson Lim, who handles groups from China for a local travel agency. Boon Sang Lip, a souvenir stand operator, put it more bluntly: 'They like to talk in a loud and not very polite way,' he said as a group of tourists from Xian in China mobbed his assistant for lighters in the shape of Singapore's emblem, the mythical half-lion, half-fish Merlion. When they check into hotels, for instance, many tourists from China demand the top floors, Mr. Lim said. Some feel entitled to take souvenirs like hotel pillows, he said. Some Chinese tourists do not hesitate to stub cigarettes out on hotel carpets, complained Diana Chong, director of sales and marketing at a local three-star hotel. 'They think when they pay that much money they should get a lot,' she said. Other China tourists believe that they should not pay so much at all. 'Sometimes they try to bargain and ask if they can have a discount,' said Andy Wong, a clerk in a sporting goods store that, like most stores here, has fixed prices. Occasionally, these confrontations go further. Man Lim, a jewelry clerk, recalled one tourist from China slamming a calculator down on a glass counter when denied a 50 percent discount. None of this may come as a surprise to anyone who has traveled through China. In a nation of 1.3 billion people, getting where you want to go often means literally pushing someone else out of the way. But much of the behavior stems from inexperience. Chinese citizens may travel only to countries on a government-approved list. Individual travel, while possible, requires onerous paperwork, so most Chinese travel in large groups. China's labor laws also require most citizens to take their vacations around three major holidays: the Lunar New Year holiday in late January and early February; May Day; and National Day on Oct. 1, which initiates a weeklong vacation period. For all the challenges, China's tourist migrations represent a lucrative source of income that countries like Singapore are vying to attract. Casinos are one case in point. With casinos illegal in China, virtually every trip abroad includes such a visit. Gambling losses by Chinese visitors overseas amount to $72 billion a year, according to CLSA. 'Chinese love to gamble,' Mr. Lim said. While wealthier visitors to Singapore often take a cruise with a casino onboard, he said, package tours to Singapore usually encompass a visit to casinos in Malaysia. Hotels in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam have installed slot machines. In Ha Long city in Vietnam, a casino has been built to complement the natural beauty of Ha Long Bay. Singapore lifted a 40-year ban on casinos this year and is now seeking bids to build two casino resorts. But officials deny they are pandering to China's love of gambling. 'Yes, there may be a group of Chinese tourists interested in gambling facilities,' said Edmund Chua, regional director for China at the Singapore Tourism Board, 'but the majority we're getting now are nongambling tourists, families and travelers who are here just to have fun.'

Subject: Chinese Reaffirm one-party autocracy From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 14:51:16 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: By GEOFFREY YORK Thursday, October 20, 2005 Page A1 - Globe and Mail - Toronto BEIJING -- China had an uncompromising message yesterday for the millions of workers and peasants who have protested against Communist officials in recent months: Dictatorship is still the only permissible option. The Communist government released its first 'white paper' on political democracy, a 74-page discussion paper that brooked no discussion on its central conclusion that the one-party autocracy must be preserved. The release of the paper seems to confirm that Beijing is anxious about the growing number of street protests against local Communist officials. The government has cracked down on dissent this year, jailing an increasing number of critics and activists. From Beijing's viewpoint, the trend is ominous. There were 74,000 protests and other 'mass incidents' in China last year, involving 3.7 million people, according to government figures. It was a dramatic increase from the 58,000 incidents in the previous year and the 10,000 incidents a decade ago. The white paper hammered home the message that the Chinese masses still need the dominance of the Communist Party of China. 'The CPC's leadership and rule is needed for uniting hundreds of millions of people to work in concerted efforts in building a beautiful future,' it said. It also praised the 'people's democratic dictatorship' as the ideal way of governing China: 'China has always adhered to the basic principle that the Marxist theory of democracy be combined with the reality of China.' The paper also flatly rejected any notion of Western-style democracy in China. 'It must not copy any model of other countries,' the paper said. 'Mechanically copying the Western bourgeois political system and applying it to China would lead nowhere.' While the white paper mentioned the experimental system of 'village elections' at the lowest level of the Chinese system, it gave no hint of any opening to real democracy at higher levels of government. Despite its claim to be a white paper to generate discussion, little discussion or debate about it was evident on China's Internet yesterday. On the website of the People's Daily, one person commented sardonically, 'The place where there isn't democracy issues a democracy white paper.' Bruce Gilley, a Canadian scholar at Princeton University who has written extensively on Chinese politics, said in an interview yesterday: 'Beijing is responding to the internal unrest and alienation, and it hopes to head that off by reiterating its justification for one-party rule. The unintended consequence may be that political reform is put back into public play as a valid issue on which editorial writers, scholars and activists can comment.' The government's crackdown on dissent was vividly illustrated by a violent attack on a democracy activist in southern China this month. The episode began in July, when about 400 residents of Taishi, a village of 2,000 people, signed a petition calling for the replacement of their elected chief. After a series of protests, the local authorities agreed to set up a committee to organize a referendum. But then a gang of thugs, apparently with government support, began to put heavy pressure on the activists who had led the referendum drive. Dozens of protesters and activists were arrested last month, while Beijing ordered the media to stop covering the Taishi dispute. One of the leading activists, Lu Banglie, was brutally beaten and knocked unconscious by a gang of 30 to 50 thugs when he attempted to enter the village with a journalist this month. A few hours later, he says, a local official warned him to drop his involvement in the Taishi dispute.

Subject: Re: Chinese Reaffirm one-party autocracy From: Mik To: Mik Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 15:02:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Absolutely incredible that we are funding this autocracy by allowing our companies to setup factories in China and in turn buying their products. It is incredible that there is no backlash from the west - or more importantly from civil groups pointing out that there is no allowance for real unions in China. Poor people have no way of voicing their dissatisfaction and have become economically enslaved. What is just difficult to comprehend is that there were 74,000 protests and other 'mass incidents' in China last year, involving 3.7 million people, according to their own government figures. It was a dramatic increase from the 58,000 incidents in the previous year and the 10,000 incidents a decade ago. How many protests were their in Cuba before Fidel came to power? How many protests were there in South Africa before Apartheid was over thrown? Even as a percentage of the population - 74,000 protests involving 3.7 million people is an incredible number. Are we too niaive to believe that China won't see a revolution? It is so blatantly obvious that these people are not happy with the situation - yet we the west continue to support this Chinese government. Even worse we honour it by allowing their influential presence at the UN - when they are blatantly breaking the UN charter for human rights. We prize them with hosting the Olympics in 2008. It is as if these people have carte blanche to manipulate their people but so long as we (the West) continue to get cheap products - we simply don't care.

Subject: Re: Chinese Reaffirm one-party autocracy From: Jennifer To: Mik Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 18:47:15 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I think you are forgetting that China is a country of 1.4 billion people, that is finally developing and developing at a terrific rate. Stability is essential to the Chinese leadership, and I believe they are responding to general needs as best they can given the immense society and chaos that development can bring. I am hopeful about China.

Subject: Re: Chinese Reaffirm one-party autocracy From: Mik To: Jennifer Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 20:27:23 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Interesting statement you have there '...developing at a terrific rate. Stability is essential to the ...leadership,...' I remember a very similar statement about apartheid South Africa. There is no excuse for depriving people of the rights. India has over 1 billion people... why can they have a democracy and civil rights while China has not? Size has nothing to do with it.

Subject: Re: Chinese Reaffirm one-party autocracy From: Setanta To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 05:52:25 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Mik, China has the US by the short and curlies. The US will not interfere with china while the threat of releasing billions of USD currency and TBills looms over the US Govt. china has timed this 'democratic' review perfectly. is there a better way to administer a country as vast and populous as china? i'm not sure. western democracy will lead to the 'balkanisation' of the area with catastrophic effects on asia. is a US style 'federal system' appropriate. i'm not sure. it may work with a european founded nation but may not sit well on asian shoulders. worst case scenario would be a military dictatorship (right-wing/quasi fascist or left wing/marxist)such as in parts of asia and south america in the past.

Subject: I agree From: Mik To: Setanta Date Posted: Fri, Oct 21, 2005 at 13:45:53 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I agree with your statement. I also believe this is a two way thing - we too have china caught. They are desperately trying to cut their reliance on the US by breaking into the EU market. If there was some sort of program to recognise labour rights - or civil rights - I would be less sticky on this issue. There is a simple concept of 'fair trade'. Imagine we paid people well below any form of living wage and we gave them no avenue to unionise and demand better? There is no way that would be allowed to happen in North America or the West, yet we outsource our production to countries that do allow this, what is worse is that China entrenches this concept at the highest level of government. If a country is poor and wages are low - that is acceptable, but if there is no way for the people to get pay increases, then we are contributing to a system that ensures the movement of jobs overseas and ensures that economically the great masses of people in the poor countries will remain poor. Let me put two thoughts into your mind: 1. There are fully qualified Doctors living in shanty town shacks in India, because there is no money for them to live in better environments. India at least has a mechanism that will eventually see those doctors progress and move into normal houses with running water and electricity. 2. All jobs can be shipped out overseas, even yours. I am not trying to act like a protectionist, nor do I try advocate democracy for China. I just want to point out that we need to ensure a steady course towards fairness. This whole article gives a clear indication that the Chinese have absolutely no intention to head towards any form of fairness. Now for the irony - according to Paul Krugman: - if we removed the China-USA trade, China would be in a trade deficit. Meaning that it currently buys more from its neighbouring Asian countries than it exports. Why don't we have a serious move towards shortcutting the process and trade more with the neighbours: Indonesia, Philippines, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, etc, etc. Also this would be strategic on our part. As I said in a previous post, we are acting niaive to believe that the iron fisted government of China can never be overthrown. Especially when they have already seen 70 odd thousand protests in one year. This is a very precarious position and we should react appropriately. Diversify our investments away from China, but not fall into the same trap and only invest in countries that allow for freedom of labour movements.

Subject: Re: Chinese Reaffirm one-party autocracy From: Sarah To: Mik Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 15:01:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: An interesting article, thank you :)

Subject: Bush's Ancestors From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 08:59:17 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/magazine/16essay.html?ex=1287115200&en=badb8cd9b99cf40e&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 16, 2005 Bush's Ancestors By SEAN WILENTZ Ever since Ronald Reagan's election in 1980, the strength of American conservatism has largely confounded historians and intellectuals. Before then, a generation of influential scholars claimed that liberalism was the core of all American political thinking and suggested that it always would be. Well into the 1970's, many observers wondered whether a Republican Party that allied itself with the conservative movement could long survive. History has, to say the least, disproved these judgments. Yet many prominent liberals continue to see contemporary conservatism as a rhetorical smoke screen intended to deceive the masses - even as conservatives often trace their movement back no farther than William F. Buckley Jr.'s founding of National Review in 1955, fusing religious and pro-business-minded voters. Such thinking, however, slights the coherence and durability of conservative politics in America. The blend of businessmen's aversion to government regulation, down-home cultural populism and Christian moralism that sustains today's Republican Party is a venerable if loosely knit philosophy of government dating back to long before the right-wing upsurge that prepared the way for Reagan's presidency. A few pundits and political insiders have likened the current Republicans to the formidable, corporate-financed political machine behind President William McKinley at the end of the 19th century. The admiration Karl Rove has expressed for the machine strengthens the historical connection. Yet neither conservatives nor liberals have fully recognized that the Bush administration's political and ideological recipe was invented decades before McKinley by a nearly forgotten American institution: the Whig Party of the 1830's and 40's. The Whigs arose in 1834 to oppose Andrew Jackson's anti-elitist Democratic Party. Furious at Jackson's destruction of the privately controlled, all-powerful Second Bank of the United States and his forceful claims for presidential authority, the Whigs built a national following dedicated to protecting business and reducing federal economic regulation. Enriching the rich, they proclaimed, would eventually enrich everyone else. By combining a pro-business conservatism geared to the common man with an evangelical Christian view of social virtues and vices, they won the presidency twice in the 1840's and controlled either the House or the Senate for most of the decade. In the Senate, the legendary Henry Clay of Kentucky and Daniel Webster of Massachusetts magnified the Whig Party's influence far beyond Capitol Hill with the power of their oratory. Insofar as perennial themes shape our politics, it is remarkable how so many of contemporary conservatism's central ideas and slogans renovate old Whig appeals. The Opportunity Society and the Attack on Big Government: Modern conservatism rests on the proposition that Democrats and liberals thrive on a huge, wasteful federal bureaucracy that discourages individual initiative and lavishes public money on the liberals' shiftless political base. In his first Inaugural Address, Reagan denounced 'government by an elite group,' by which he unmistakably meant parasitic liberal Democrats. In the 1830's and 40's, Whigs said much the same about the Jacksonians. They charged that President Jackson had established an executive tyranny, while Jackson's followers, as the Whig journalist Horace Greeley wrote, had turned government into 'an agency mainly of corruption, oppression and robbery.' In defiance of Jacksonian despotism, one North Carolinian declared in an 1835 editorial, the Whigs rallied 'in defense of LIBERTY against POWER.' The Whigs particularly objected, like Reagan and his successors, to federal regulation of business and financial matters. A typical Whig editorial from 1837 denounced the Democrats for warring on 'the merchants and mercantile interests' in order to support federal power. A century and a half before Reagan's election, the Whigs worked out the basic ideas of supply-side, trickle-down economics. They acclaimed the romance of risk and private investment and a compelling but simplistic view of America as, in one widely used Whig phrase, 'a country of self-made men.' These views would reappear in Reagan's and Newt Gingrich's celebrations of a coming 'opportunity society,' later reformulated by George W. Bush as the 'ownership society.' The Whigs also dismissed the Jacksonians' attacks on the privileged classes as demagogic - much as Bush, running in 2000 as a unifying 'compassionate conservative,' labeled his opponent's criticisms of corporate power and tax breaks for the wealthy a mean-spirited effort 'to wage class warfare to get ahead.' Of course, there are significant differences between the Whigs and today's conservatives. Governing in an age before giant private corporations, the Whigs saw federal spending on the nation's infrastructure as imperative to economic development. On this point, modern G.O.P. dogma departs from Whig principles - a difference that has recently caused the Bush administration severe embarrassment. Conservative Populism: Modern conservatives present themselves as the party of the oppressed taxpayer and small businessman - citizens Reagan lionized as 'hard-working Americans.' Similarly, leading Whig operatives, like the New York wire-puller Thurlow Weed, refined a vocabulary and a public image befitting a party of the toiling American majority pitted against selfish politicians. Whig rhetoric departed fundamentally from the aristocratic hauteur and gloominess that old-line conservatives inherited from the defunct Federalist Party. On the political stump, the example of the buckskinned Whig congressman and Tennessee rifleman Davy Crockett was widely imitated. Even classical-style orators like Webster learned to put aside their Cicero on the campaign trail, declare themselves rip-snorting Democrats - and threaten to punch out anybody who said otherwise. The Whigs also invented new satirical characters who, in newspapers and onstage, ridiculed politicians who 'manage to git hold of the money of the people and keep turning it to their own account.' While they cast themselves and their rich supporters as just plain folks, the Whigs portrayed the Democrats as smooth-handed, Champagne-drinking, out-of-touch professional politicians. The appeals helped the Whigs win the presidency in 1840 with their famous 'log cabin and hard cider' campaign, presenting their well-born presidential candidate, William Henry Harrison, as a plebeian hero who lived in a humble abode and drank the common frontiersman's brew. Today's Republicans have repeated the makeover. In the 1970's, the conservative movement's adoption of the sunny-tempered Hollywood cowboy Reagan as its leader in place of the dour, bespectacled Barry Goldwater was the great breakthrough of modern conservative populism. Thereafter, the transformation of the Massachusetts-born patrician George H.W. Bush into a lover of pork rinds and of his Andover-, Yale- and Harvard-educated son into a rugged Texas pioneer extended the conservative populist theme. The Democrats, meanwhile, remain trapped in the public's image of them as effete 'brie and Chablis' liberals. Moralism, Self-Reform and the Culture War: Today's Republican Party owes a great deal to its political alliance with resurgent conservative evangelical Christians, part of a wider conservative attack on liberals as the enemies of traditional morality. That attack reinforces the fundamental idea of the 'opportunity society': personal failure stems not from economic and social inequalities but from the moral failings of thriftless, heedless, lawless, libertine and lazy individuals - precisely the sorts of people (conservatives charge) liberals want to coddle with needless, destructive social spending. The Whigs portrayed the Jacksonians in very similar terms. 'Wherever you find a bitter, blasphemous Atheist and an enemy of Marriage, Morality, and Social Order,' The New-York Daily Tribune under Greeley charged, 'there you may be certain of one vote for [the Jacksonians].' Upon enlisting in the Whig Party in 1835, Representative John Bell of Tennessee sounded like a forerunner of William Bennett, declaring that 'we have, in truth, in the last 8 or 10 years, been in a continual state of moral war.' Jackson's successor as president, Martin Van Buren, a widower, came in for special abuse as a man of dubious morals, including fantastic Whig charges that he held secret orgies in the White House. The Whigs were drawn disproportionately from devotees of the enormous wave of evangelical revivalism known as the Second Great Awakening. Evangelicalism quickly led a minority of Northern Whigs into the crusade against slavery. But mainstream Whigs despised anti-slavery politics and were preoccupied by evangelically inspired efforts to enforce public morality with coercive temperance and Sunday blue-law campaigns. Democrats opposed these efforts, upholding the separation of church and state in order to prevent Congress, one Kentucky Jacksonian wrote, from becoming the 'proper tribunal to determine what are the laws of God.' Fate was unkind to the Whig Party. Its first president, Harrison, took sick on his frigid Inauguration Day in 1841, died one month later and was succeeded by a Virginia ex-Democrat, John Tyler, whom some in the party considered to be no Whig at all. The other Whig elected to the presidency, Zachary Taylor, a retired general, lasted only slightly longer than Harrison, felled by an attack of acute gastroenteritis in 1850 after just 16 months in the White House. In between the Tyler and Taylor presidencies, the acquisition of vast Western territories from the war against Mexico led to severe wrangling over the extension of slavery, which neither of the major parties could handle. The Democrats wound up losing their anti-slavery Northern partisans in the 1850's and became dominated by Southern slaveholders. The Whig Party collapsed completely: its anti-slavery wing joined with the Democratic bolters to form the Republican Party in 1854; its Southerners either enlisted in the pro-slavery Democratic fold or floundered in vain attempts to restore sectional comity. The party's sorry demise helps explain why today's Republican conservatives who study history resist any comparison to the Whigs. If they look back before the McKinley era to the 1830's, as Karl Rove has done on occasion, they prefer to liken themselves to the Jacksonians, sticking up for 'the little guy' against the federal government. But the Jacksonians, unlike conservatives then and now, also battled against the country's financial and mercantile elites and sought to reduce the power of what Jackson called 'associated wealth' over the nation's economy and politics. Rove's argument distorts the nature of contemporary conservatism's political achievements. By lashing Whig principles to Southern states rights dogma, and updating them both, modern conservatives have created a new mutation far more tenacious than the old Whig Party. Invigorating the core Whig tenets about trickle-down opportunity, the Republicans have enriched a plutocracy of Americans unimaginable in the early 19th century and won their financial support as well as their political allegiance. By relying on the Southern version of evangelicalism, stressing personal holiness more than the do-good reformism of Northern evangelical Whigs and enlisting the Christian right in their culture war, they have built a larger and more loyal political base than the Whigs ever enjoyed. Of course, today's conservatives shouldn't be complacent about the future of their movement. Bad luck aside, sectional tensions between Northern anti-slavery Whigs and Southern Whig slaveholders finally proved the party's undoing. And even at their high tide, the Whigs had to paper over conflicts between the party's hard-drinking populists and its teetotaling moralists, its moss-backed bluenoses and its more flexible officeholders and party managers. Thurlow Weed's closest political friend, the New York Whig (and later Republican) William Henry Seward, despaired in the early 1840's that 'my principles are too liberal, too philanthropic, if it not be vain to say so, for my party.' Modern conservatives cope with similar fault lines, including divisions between the old Confederate states and the old Union states, which have placed many 'moderate' Northern Republicans like Lincoln Chaffee and Christine Todd Whitman at odds with the party's hard-line directorship. And yet modern conservatism has outlived every expectation of its demise. Even today, unsettled by hurricanes, scandals and an increasingly unpopular war, the G.O.P. nonetheless stands for conservative principles and speaks a political language readily understood by voters. Those principles and that language are venerable and, as proclaimed by today's Republicans, more compelling than the confused and uncertain message coming from their opponents. As inadequate, or worse, as the G.O.P.'s privatizing policies may appear, the conservatives' often misunderstood connection to the American past may yet carry them successfully into the future. Sean Wilentz is a professor of American history at Princeton. His new book, 'The Rise of American Democracy,' is out this month from W.W. Norton.

Subject: A question about these 'economic' books From: Pilate To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 21:04:05 (EDT) Email Address: thedarkknight01@gmail.com Message: Hi, I'm entirely interested in these new 'economic' books by Krugman: Microeconomics Macroeconomics Economics Ok, now according to Worth Publishers' statement at their site: KRUGMAN/WELLS ECONOMICS IS AVAILABLE IN MICRO AND MACRO SPLITS! AVAILABLE NOW! Microeconomics, 0-7167-5229-8 COMING DECEMBER, 2005! Macroeconomics, 0-7167-5228-X THE FULL TEXT, ECONOMICS, AVAILABLE JANUARY/06! 1-57259-150-1 I know it is a stupid question but at this point, I'm confused by Worth Publishers's statement. Does it mean that 'Economics' by Krugman & Wells is a book of two spilt books ('Microeconomics' & 'Macroeconomics')? And er, actually there is another question... Is this new book, 'Macroeconomics' a different book from 'Mircoeconomics' (yes, I'm aware of different title but some publishing companies has revised the titles into different titles in the past)? Reason I ask because I don't want to spend $$$ on the wrong books or pay for the refund fee (shipping).

Subject: Re: A question about these 'economic' books From: Yann To: Pilate Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 08:58:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Grosso modo, the Economics textbook by Krugman & Wells = the Microeconomics textbook the Macroeconomics textbook... Of course, the micro-textbook is different from the macro-textbook, but there identical chapters in both. See http://www.worthpublishers.com/krugmanwellsnew.

Subject: Re: A question about these 'economic' books From: Pilate To: Yann Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 18:13:21 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Ah, many thanks for responding and link!

Subject: Re: A question about these 'economic' books From: Yann To: Yann Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 08:58:56 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Grosso modo, the Economics textbook by Krugman & Wells = the Microeconomics textbook plus the Macroeconomics textbook... Of course, the micro-textbook is different from the macro-textbook, but there identical chapters in both. See http://www.worthpublishers.com/krugmanwellsnew.

Subject: Currencies From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 13:47:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Notice, by the way, just how strong the dollar has been this year. Only the Canadian dollar is as strong. Another note on the dollar. While the dollar is strong against other major currencies, Latin American currencies are as strong or far stronger. Brazil in particular, but Mexico as well, could be headed for what have been repeated currency problems as overly strong currencies finally slash trade balances. Chinese resource demand is supporting Brazil, while oil is cushioning Mexico, so far.

Subject: Re: Currencies From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 14:34:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The dollar has not been strong against most commodities, precious metals, energy, and food. Most other world currencies have also not been strong against these items. So I'm not sure that the dollar has shown any real strength this past year - it's more that other currencies have show more weakness. Certainly some of the run-up in commodities and energy is due to increased worldwide demand vs supply, but also has some roots in a continued weakening dollar. The large increase in gold prices since this last spring is mostly due to a growing lack of faith in the dollar and paper currencies in general.

Subject: Re: Currencies From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 16:11:53 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Nonetheless the dollar is notably strong against every significant currency, though I do not worry overly about the value of the dollar in any case. Energy stocks can always be used as a hedge on the value of the dollar however. I find no near term investment problems, and am bullish for the time being.

Subject: Getting out of the box From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 11:00:55 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: We seem to be getting a double whammy here. On the one hand, as you say, the US dollar has recently remained strong relative to overseas currencies, which makes it difficult for US businesses to compete overseas. On the other hand, the US consumer is struggling with higher food bills, energy costs, insurance costs, housing costs, etc. and US manufacturers are having difficulty with higher material and energy costs. Increasingly, the US consumer has become dependent on borrowing his/her way through life rather than earning his/her way through life. This has been going on for some time now. How is it not obvious that US assets (housing, US stocks, the dollar), as debt gets to unsustainable levels, will begin to decline? In the past, these declines have come on rather rapidly (remember Buffet's statement - 'I don't know what a soft landing looks like.'). To me the present situation looks like the huge debt run-up with stock market crash of the 20's & 30's, the energy crisis of the 70's, and impending housing boom/bust with the S&L crisis of the late 80's/early 90's all wrapped into one. This has got to be the first time in history that all of these factors have hit at the same time. We've been indoctrinated to always think the glass is half full, but this, to me, is a (perhaps intentional as it may or may not be) dumbing down which keeps the public in an unsuspecting lethargic state and unwilling to listen to anything 'negative' no matter how valid it might be. We tend to express our ideas in ways which we believe will get the broadest acceptance of them. We have been trained to express so called 'positive' ideas and get negative feedback for so called 'negative' ideas. Madison Ave has uses this skillfully to manipulate our buying habits. Politicians use it to manipulate our voting habits (negativity about our involvement in Iraq is unAmerican). Wall Street uses it to manipulate our investing choices. We need to free ourselves of this indoctrination and not think about the glass as half full or half empty, but take a measured look at the actual level of fluid in the glass. There is far too much fear out there among so many (including economists) to discuss subjects that seem too have a 'negative' connotation. In fact, those who express 'negative' views are often called 'fear mongerers'. Yet I believe those who are willing to take the 'brave' step of saying we are on the precipice of real trouble are the only ones ready to take the next step of exploring for solutions.

Subject: Teaching old dogs From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 23:09:11 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: <> Pete I see you use words like indoctrinated, train, manipulate - the human brain can be made into a very PROCEDURAL minion - and that is why it is so hard for people to break old habits - like throwing money away to crooks in wall street and real estate - because that is always the way it has been done. http://science.slashdot.org/science/05/10/20/1559245.shtml?tid=14 M.I.T. Explains Why Bad Habits Are Hard to Break Posted by CmdrTaco on Thursday October 20, @03:29PM from the also-because-vices-are-fun dept. Ant writes 'CNET News.com says habitual activity (e.g., smoking, eating fatty foods, gambling, etc.) changes neural activity patterns in a specific region of the brain when habits are formed. These neural patterns created by habit can be changed or altered. But when a stimulus from the old days returns, the dormant pattern can reassert itself, according to a new study from the M.I.T., putting an individual in a neural state akin to being on autopilot... The neural patterns get established in the basal ganglia, a brain region critical to habits, addiction and procedural learning.' Now Pete when I was in college and taking psychology classes - we were 'taught' that as the brain gets older its starts a type of crystallization process - neural pathways are very reinforced in certain regards and are hard to CHANGE. Now here in America we have many baby boomers that have certain reinforced concepts about the world lodged heavily in thier brain - and accepting other views may be very hard to do physically. This could go a long way to explain why the old saying 'science progresses one funeral at a time' may have a lot of merit. I would suggest Pete - your knowledge would best be applied to younger people who do not have very established world views and whose minds have not started the crystalization type process - trying to teach the old dogs new tricks seems to be a waste. I have been fascinated throughout my life by people that did what I viewed to be very foolish things over and over again - they could not BREAK the bad habit - now science is beginning to tell us the details of WHY they can't. <> Pete this is true of many of the working class people I have known - several have turned to crime to supplement their income. It is smaller crimes now - like shoplifting or check fraud. I have seen people I considered high moral character breaking down when they feel thier kids are suffering. When they start feeling they cannot make it honestly in society anymore - crime begins to be much easier for them. The corruption I have seen take root in several towns that used to have a tight moral community is astonishing. As the old saying goes its the hard times that TRULY test a mans character and hard times seem to be growing. When you have a society indoctrinated and TRAINED to think and act a certain way - as Emma and Jared Diamond have shown - and now MIT is confirming - it is HARD to get them to see REASON and CHANGE thier ways.

Subject: Re: Getting out of the box From: Sarah To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 14:25:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Looking forward from here, where would you think there is protection for the investor?

Subject: Do you feel Lucky? From: Johnny5 To: Sarah Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 20, 2005 at 23:55:27 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Sarah I just sold some west palm beach real estate - the growing hurricanes and insurance and maintenance costs turned what was once bringing me about 11% 5 years ago down to about 3% - the property price run up has also done this for many of my WPB friends. Some of these friends were throwing money into funds like KL Financial - well we all know how that turned out. Capital is everywhere - sloshing around. I contacted numerous commercial investment people because I did not feel safe with residential. Some of these people told me I was a fool for selling anything in west palm beach and they are trying to acquire 'trophy properties' in Fla. I said you must not understand the scientists who say the next 20 years of hurricanes will be ugly. I said are your 'trophy properties' like a 'trophy wife' because they cost too much if so. Anyways the cap rates are very low, many of these commercial properties are acquired with interest only loans. I tell them about my japanese friends in the 80's that bought up a lot of REAL ESTATE and trophy buildings in the US only to later lose on thier investments HERE and at home and none want to talk about that. Sarah as Pete stated - where did the smart money go in the 30's? Or the energy crisis of the 70's or the housing and S&L crisis recently? 1900 we had the british EMPIRE the center of the global world - it didn't take long for that to change. In just about 20 years the world was in a major shift. British investors lost money here in the USA and many other places they tried to invest - their currency faltered as the world reserve. I wonder how the British investors of 1910 did that invested in war related companies? Terri has given you some clues - she has shown where in certain times in the past holding safe bond investments were the better way to wether the storm. She recommends Vangaurd as one of the better companies - I invest with Vanguard. Krugman seems to be turning very negative here lately too. On a society based on GROWTH where INNOVATION is slowing tremendously - you are going to have some problems. Terri convinced me to buy VDC - I can't eat gold, but me and you and Pete will all need the basic products of modern life no matter how bad things get. This is one of the major problems I have with the gold bug types - even if Gold were to go up in terms of dollars - and the dollars are in free fall - I don't really see where you have accomplished much - and I don't see the government allowing people to profit greatly in that way. Buffet is awash in cash - and finding no good investments. I have held XOM for awhile now and foresee holding it awhile longer. I met with some finance planners about 3 years ago who assured me 40 dollar oil would be the PEAK - one of them even said this last year - that the world would never see 40 oil for more than a short rally of maybe a few months - he cost a lot of wealthier friends money with his poor investment advice. Like Pete I had friends and family get involved with very uninformed agents selling annuities that ate up all thier profit with fees and expenses. I have friends that have 4 or 5 fla houses with negative amortization loans laughing at the FLIP THIS HOUSE tv show - they say you have to be long term in real estate to make money - how these people acquired millions of dollars to begin with is a mystery to me - but like gordon gecko said in the classic wall street - 2/3rds of the wealth out there is idiot sons and widows - and in hard times - they are going to suffer from all the sharks nibbling at them. I predict some of my friends with these negative amoritization loans to have very destitute retirements. I think Terri would advise for you to call a vanguard agent and see what they can offer you. With so much capital sloshing around - if Buffets WMD's strike and massive credit contraction starts - I will have to agree with Pete, I don't think things will be very soft or easy at all.

Subject: Re: Do you feel Lucky? From: Sarah To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Sat, Oct 22, 2005 at 16:56:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank you for the response, though I am more optimistic I suppose.

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 11:25:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 10/18/05 Australia 10.6 Canada 15.6 Denmark 13.2 France 5.3 Germany 2.5 Hong Kong 6.9 Japan 8.3 Netherlands 3.7 Norway 14.8 Sweden 1.9 Switzerland 8.4 UK 1.8

Subject: National Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 11:22:27 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 10/18/05 Australia 16.2 Canada 14.2 Denmark 29.4 France 20.0 Germany 16.8 Hong Kong 6.7 Japan 22.4 Netherlands 16.2 Norway 24.2 Sweden 21.6 Switzerland 24.3 UK 11.8

Subject: Vanguard Fund Returns From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 10:21:41 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship5.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByName Vanguard Fund Returns 12/31/04 to 10/18/05 S&P Index is -1.5 Large Cap Growth Index is -1.4 Large Cap Value Index is 0.1 Mid Cap Index is 3.8 Small Cap Index is -0.6 Small Cap Value Index is -1.0 Europe Index is 2.4 Pacific Index is 7.8 Energy is 32.6 Health Care is 9.5 Precious Metals 26.3 REIT Index is 3.4 High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is 1.0 Long Term Corporate Bond Fund is 2.7

Subject: Sector Stock Indexes From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 10:21:02 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship2.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsVIPERByName Sector Stock Indexes 12/31/04 - 10/18/05 Energy 29.4 Financials -3.6 Health Care 4.1 Info Tech -4.1 Materials -9.7 REITs 3.5 Telecoms -5.8 Utilities 11.3

Subject: Remedies for New Orleans (E. S. Phelps) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 02:20:11 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://bsalanie.blogs.com/economie_sans_tabou/files/phelps_new_orleans_nov_10_05.pdf

Subject: TRUST & INTEGRITY From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 18, 2005 at 14:30:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: At times like these (post Worldcom, Enron, etc.) it's important to remember that the only real assets that banks like Chase Manhattan-JP Morgan and Citigroup have are -'trust, integrity, and the personal reputation of their executives'. Without that they can not survive. From Slate: 21st-Century Bank Run Watching a $4 billion company fall apart in a week. By Daniel Gross Posted Monday, Oct. 17, 2005, at 2:52 PM PT Bank run, 1931-style If you want to know what a modern bank run looks like, consider the case of the giant commodity trading firm Refco. It went public in mid-August, but in the course of the past week it has gone from $4 billion stock-market darling to carcass. The proximate cause of the meltdown was the surprise disclosure on Monday, Oct. 10, that an entity controlled by CEO Phillip Bennett had owed $430 million to the company. A week later, trading of the stock has been halted and vultures are picking over Refco the way hyenas gnaw on the remains of wildebeest. Refco was no boiler-room operation. It's been around and successful for a long time. (Scandal connoisseurs will recall that Refco was Hillary Clinton's commodities broker.) And it had been getting more and more respectable. First, Thomas H. Lee, the highly respected private equity investor, agreed to take a big stake in Refco in the summer of 2004. Then gold-plated underwriters Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse First Boston brought it public two months ago. Refco was a model 21st-century business—a highly digitized, high-tech services company that traded complicated financial instruments on behalf of customers all over the globe. But its meltdown shows that its real assets were not its New Economy algorithms and brainpower. Rather, this extremely modern company depended ultimately on the kind of assets that built American capitalism in the 19th century: trust, integrity, and the personal reputation of executives. Nothing material changed in Refco's financial situation when it announced that Bennett had secretly owed money to the company, or when it provided more details the next day about how Bennett had hid the debt. If anything, the company's situation improved, since Bennett paid the money back and quit the same day. The company also took further proactive action, hiring Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, to help clean things up. Refco was solvent. It had tons of cash on hand. Nobody was worried that it wouldn't be able to pay its rent, salaries, or utility bills. But it was already too late. Refco was in the business of facilitating trades that are conducted essentially through a digital handshake. The actual exchange of cash—the settlement—takes place within a few hours or a few days. Any company operating in this environment relies on liquidity—the ability to access vast stores of credit instantaneously and cheaply—and on the willingness of other institutions to act as counterparties, to wait a day or two before receiving payment. Once the trouble was announced, Refco's customers wondered whether it was wise to do business with a company whose internal controls were so weak that it didn't know its own CEO was hiding a nine-figure debt. So, the demise was swift. (Here's the nasty five-day chart.) Within two days of the announcement of the discovered debt, Refco had to shut its nonregulated capital-markets subsidiary because it lost liquidity. In other words, people no longer trusted Refco to make good on trades. Customers began to yank funds, clients started to steer business elsewhere, and employees began furiously to look around for new gigs. In abandoning Refco so rapidly, the market proved that creditworthiness is not an absolute attribute that can be proved by showing you have a certain amount of cash on hand, or that your equity-to-debt ratio is above a certain level. Rather, it's relative. Companies may boast excellent credit ratings from agencies like Standard & Poor's. But ultimately, creditworthiness is in the eye of the beholder. It's something that people say you have, based on personal experience, reputation, and marketplace behavior. And that's how Refco found itself transported back 150 years. Dun & Bradstreet has been in the business of providing credit ratings since the 19th century. Its predecessor companies, including R.G. Dun & Co., employed correspondents in every major city and town who would send word to headquarters about the reliability of various businesspeople. Much of it was gossip, which is part of what makes Harvard's collection of R.G. Dun & Co.'s massive leather ledgers such great reading. The correspondents may not have had access to merchants' balance sheets, but they did know whether, say, a dry goods merchant in Albany, N.Y., had stiffed a supplier on a $10 bill, or which glass manufacturer in Brooklyn could be trusted for $1,000 of credit. But Refco's downfall isn't simply an occasion for a history lesson, or an object lesson for people who make their living in the commodity pits. The entire global economy runs on the lubricant of easy credit extended among companies. And much of that credit depends on trust and reputation. An auto-parts company that gives its customers 30 days to pay it and has 30 days to pay its suppliers can function quite well. But if a few suppliers become worried that the company might have difficulty paying its bills, and demand to be paid in 10 days, that company could go bankrupt in a matter of days. These days, you don't have to be a bank—or even a liquidity-dependent finance firm—to suffer a run on the bank.

Subject: Ok so companies Lie - J Cramer From: Johnny5 To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Tues, Oct 18, 2005 at 16:48:41 (EDT) Email Address: johnny5@yahoo.com Message: Jim said it was the 'american way' - for a company to lie - how pathetic. Pete is it great to see you again. My redneck friends that voted in Bush are not so jovial of late - many are very destitute and commiting crime has become a part of some of their lives. As this article points out - Even with our friend Krugman - identifying the PROBLEMS are not the REAL ISSUE. Finding SOLUTIONS are what we need - and we just don't seem to have anyone that can - even Krugman seems to offer no real SOLUTIONS save throwing more time and wealth at education. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2099-1813695_1,00.html Waiting for the lights to go out We've taken the past 200 years of prosperity for granted. Humanity's progress is stalling, we are facing a new era of decay, and nobody is clever enough to fix it. Is the future really that black, asks Bryan Appleyard The greatest getting-and-spending spree in the history of the world is about to end. The 200-year boom that gave citizens of the industrial world levels of wealth, health and longevity beyond anything previously known to humanity is threatened on every side. Oil is running out; the climate is changing at a potentially catastrophic rate; wars over scarce resources are brewing; finally, most shocking of all, we don't seem to be having enough ideas about how to fix any of these things. It's been said before, of course: people are always saying the world will end and it never does. Maybe it won't this time, either. But, frankly, it's not looking good. Almost daily, new evidence is emerging that progress can no longer be taken for granted, that a new Dark Age is lying in wait for ourselves and our children. .....You will enjoy a standard of living that would have glazed the eyes of the Emperor Nero, thanks to the 2% annual economic growth rate sustained by the developed world since the industrial revolution. You will have access to greater knowledge than Aristotle could begin to imagine, and to technical resources that would stupefy Leonardo da Vinci. You will know a world whose scale and variety would induce agoraphobia in Alexander the Great. You should experience relative peace thanks to the absolute technological superiority of the industrialised world over its enemies and, with luck and within reason, you should be able to write and say anything you like, a luxury denied to almost all other human beings, dead or alive. Finally, as this artificially extended sojourn in paradise comes to a close, you will attain oblivion in the certain knowledge that, for your children, things can only get better. .....Even if we did throw money at the problem, it's not certain we could fix it. One of the strangest portents of the end of progress is the recent discovery that humans are losing their ability to come up with new ideas. Jonathan Huebner is an amiable, very polite and very correct physicist who works at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center in China Lake, California. He took the job in 1985, when he was 26. An older scientist told him how lucky he was. In the course of his career, he could expect to see huge scientific and technological advances. But by 1990, Huebner had begun to suspect the old man was wrong. 'The number of advances wasn't increasing exponentially, I hadn't seen as many as I had expected — not in any particular area, just generally.' Puzzled, he undertook some research of his own. He began to study the rate of significant innovations as catalogued in a standard work entitled The History of Science and Technology. After some elaborate mathematics, he came to a conclusion that raised serious questions about our continued ability to sustain progress. What he found was that the rate of innovation peaked in 1873 and has been declining ever since. In fact, our current rate of innovation — which Huebner puts at seven important technological developments per billion people per year — is about the same as it was in 1600. By 2024 it will have slumped to the same level as it was in the Dark Ages, the period between the end of the Roman empire and the start of the Middle Ages. The calculations are based on innovations per person, so if we could keep growing the human population we could, in theory, keep up the absolute rate of innovation. But in practice, to do that, we'd have to swamp the world with billions more people almost at once. That being neither possible nor desirable, it seems we'll just have to accept that progress, at least on the scientific and technological front, is slowing very rapidly indeed. Huebner offers two possible explanations: economics and the size of the human brain. Either it's just not worth pursuing certain innovations since they won't pay off — one reason why space exploration has all but ground to a halt — or we already know most of what we can know, and so discovering new things is becoming increasingly difficult. We have, for example, known for over 20 years how cancer works and what needs to be done to prevent or cure it. But in most cases, we still have no idea how to do it, and there is no likelihood that we will in the foreseeable future. Huebner's insight has caused some outrage. The influential scientist Ray Kurzweil has criticised his sample of innovations as 'arbitrary'; K Eric Drexler, prophet of nanotechnology, has argued that we should be measuring capabilities, not innovations. Thus we may travel faster or access more information at greater speeds without significant innovations as such. Huebner has so far successfully responded to all these criticisms. Moreover, he is supported by the work of Ben Jones, a management professor at Northwestern University in Illinois. Jones has found that we are currently in a quandary comparable to that of the Red Queen in Through the Looking Glass: we have to run faster and faster just to stay in the same place. Basically, two centuries of economic growth in the industrialised world has been driven by scientific and technological innovation. We don't get richer unaided or simply by working harder: we get richer because smart people invent steam engines, antibiotics and the internet. What Jones has discovered is that we have to work harder and harder to sustain growth through innovation. More and more money has to be poured into research and development and we have to deploy more people in these areas just to keep up. 'The result is,' says Jones, 'that the average individual innovator is having a smaller and smaller impact.' ETC ETC - too doomy and gloomy for even me!!

Subject: Re: Ok so companies Lie - J Cramer From: Pete Weis To: Johnny5 Date Posted: Wed, Oct 19, 2005 at 09:32:32 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'Even if we did throw money at the problem, it's not certain we could fix it. One of the strangest portents of the end of progress is the recent discovery that humans are losing their ability to come up with new ideas.' Johnny. Haven't seen you on this board in a while either. Folks here are probably thankful they have gotten a break from our bearish postings! Anyway, I don't know if humans are losing their ability to come up with new ideas, but it's obvious we haven't come up with any new ways to change our behaviour!! Over time economists keep coming up with new ideas to control the ups and downs of our economy, but it appears (atleast to me) that human behaviour overwhelms their efforts. We attempt to redirect or temper what Mother Nature as dialed into our genes but so far it's not working.

Subject: Paul Krugman: The Big Squeeze From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 17, 2005 at 11:58:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ Paul Krugman: The Big Squeeze By Mark Thoma This is something we should all be worried about. The world is changing, and changing fast. Competition at the global level is becoming more intense and there is no end in sight anytime soon. Are we as a nation ready? Paul Krugman is worried about the effect global competition is having on ordinary Americans. What type of bellwether is the recent bankruptcy of Delphi? What does it tell us about the future for the working class in the United States? Will protectionism rear its ugly head as a solution to labor's emerging problems? The Big Squeeze, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...There are a lot of questions about how Delphi and the auto industry in general reached this point. ... But Delphi's bankruptcy is a much bigger deal than your ordinary case of corporate failure and bad, self-dealing management. If Delphi slashes wages and defaults on its pension obligations, the rest of the auto industry may well be tempted - or forced - to do the same. And that will mark the end of the era in which ordinary working Americans could be part of the middle class. There was a time when the American economy offered lots of good jobs - jobs that didn't make workers rich but did give them middle-class incomes. The best of these good jobs were at America's great manufacturing companies, especially in the auto industry. As Krugman notes, while America has grown wealthier since 1970, wages have barely kept up with inflation. And as noted recently in the media and elsewhere (e.g. see here), and by Krugman as well, since 2004 the median real income of full-time male workers declined by over 2%. That's of concern: So what are we going to do about it? During the 1990's optimists argued that better education and worker training could restore the economy's ability to create good jobs. Mr. Miller of Delphi picked up that argument as part of his public relations campaign for wage cuts: 'The world pays knowledge workers far more than it pays manual, industrial workers,' he said. 'And that's what's sweeping over here.' But that's a very 1999 sort of answer. During the technology bubble, it was easy to believe that 'knowledge workers' were guaranteed good jobs. But when the bubble burst, they turned out to be as vulnerable to downsizing and layoffs as assembly-line workers. And many of the high-paid jobs that vanished when the technology bubble burst have never come back, partly because they have been outsourced to India and other rising economies. Today, some of us like to stress the depressing effect of the dysfunctional American health care system on wages. A large part of the problem facing the auto industry and other employers ... is the cost of providing health insurance.... If we had a Canadian-style system ... the big squeeze might be averted, at least for a while. One more reason to be angry with auto executives is that they never threw their support behind national health care in this country, even though such a system is clearly in their companies' interest. What if neither education nor health care reform is enough to end the wage squeeze? That's the possibility that makes free-trade liberals like me very nervous, because at that point protectionism enters the picture. When corporate executives say that they have to cut wages to meet foreign competition, workers have every right to ask why we don't cut the foreign competition instead. I hope we don't have to go there. But denial is not an option. America's working middle class has been eroding for a generation, and it may be about to wash away completely. Something must be done. I am not ready to give up on education and infrastructure development as a means of getting the U.S. ready to withstand competition in the future. Are we developing and supporting our educational resources and infrastructure so as to be competitive in the emerging global economy? Or are we squandering the opportunity by running up huge budget deficits for other purposes leaving few resources to use to withstand the competitive onslaught that will inevitably come at us? Looking at this chart, and having seen many like it, I am not convinced we have invested in ways that allow the type of educational access for the middle class available in the 1960s and 1970s. Until we've given this a good faith effort, and its hard to say we have when per student support for higher education, and education more generally, has been falling for decades, I can't yet write education off as a viable strategy. Yes, we need to reign in health care costs, etc. that will help too, but let's not abandon knowledge and infrastructure in the process. As the world develops, we will have an comparative advantage in something and that is what we will produce - we won't outsource our comparative advantage. I would prefer it be jobs with the highest possible marginal product and compensation for all our workers.

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman: The Big Squeeze From: peggy To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Oct 18, 2005 at 10:01:57 (EDT) Email Address: gthomas557@comcast.net Message: I'm a registered nurse with a bachelor's degree, my husband is an FAA licensed aircraft mechanic with over 25 years experience with a major airline. We just put two kids through college, and we are feeling very poor. One son has no health insurance. All four of us are in debt. We never go out to eat, to movies, or on vacations. Since husband now has to work second job due to drastic paycut, there really is no time for anything but work and household chores. I hate what this country is becoming.

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman: The Big Squeeze From: Emma To: peggy Date Posted: Tues, Oct 18, 2005 at 15:27:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Do I ever understand!

Subject: Paul Krugman and 'Free Trade' From: Dorian To: Emma Date Posted: Tues, Oct 18, 2005 at 07:48:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The one issue where PK and 'liberals' tend to disagree is on the issue of 'Free Trade' (I put the term in quotes, because while it sounds like a great thing - who is against freedom? - it is a deceptive term and no doubt chosen for that reason). I agree with him that trade was bound to become more 'global', but the question was whether the rules of this globalization were going to be written by corporations interested in nothing but their own profit, or by a broader consensus, including those concerned with the interests of people and the environment. 'Free Trade' amounted only to the former. 'Fair Trade', a reasonable term, refers to the latter though hardly anyone talks about it. Now Paul appears in a quandry of his own making and can only pose a question without even suggesting an answer: 'What if neither education nor health care reform is enough to end the wage squeeze? That's the possibility that makes free-trade liberals like me very nervous, because at that point protectionism enters the picture. When corporate executives say that they have to cut wages to meet foreign competition, workers have every right to ask why we don't cut the foreign competition instead. I hope we don't have to go there. But denial is not an option. America's working middle class has been eroding for a generation, and it may be about to wash away completely. Something must be done. But all of this was entirely predictable...remember Ross Perot's 'giant sucking sound'? It might not have come soon enough to save his campaign, but it is certainly here now. How could anyone have thought otherwise? The reasons were in plain view then and remain so now, only now they are becoming a reality. Dorian

Subject: Re: Paul Krugman and 'Free Trade' From: Emma To: Dorian Date Posted: Tues, Oct 18, 2005 at 08:18:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I do not at all agree. As we found under Bill Clinton, Democrats or liberals have continually supported trade expansion. Republicans, as we have found with George Bush, have been far more protectionist. The point is Democrats have offered supports to workers from trade displacement, while Republicans have been business oriented and workers are always an afterthought if thought of at all.

Subject: Financial Markets blind to worldwide risk From: Setanta To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 17, 2005 at 10:43:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: An old transvestite's story of Berlin in the 20th century does not generally spark thoughts of economics, finance and risk. Yet the other night, watching the dazzling one-man performance of I Am My Own Wife at the Gaiety (one of Dublin's oldest theatres), I was struck by how much today's financial markets could learn from a bit of early 20th century history. Our heroine - the transvestite - was born just before the outbreak of World War I in the Kaiser's Germany and the play centred on history - her own imagined history and the history she would like the world to believe about her. At that time, Germany was the most sophisticated country in Europe and Europe was still the most sophisticated place in the world. It also had the most sophisticated financial markets. Like today, the pre-World War I financial markets claimed to be assessors of risk. They claimed to digest all the relevant information about the investment environment and price the risk accordingly. The best instrument to assess future risk was the interest rate. The pre-World War I period was remarkably similar to the present. Capital and goods were highly mobile. Europeans in particular were migrating in huge numbers, not only to the US, Canada and Australia, but also to Argentina, Brazil and South Africa. Railroads in Russia were financed by Anglo-Irish gentry, many of whom invested the proceeds of land reform in rural Ireland in the Tsarist empire. This was the first age of globalisation. Throughout the 20 years that preceded the war, interest rates fell progressively all around the world. From Turkey, Russia, Germany, France, Japan, India and Mexico, the story was the same: interest rates were falling because the world had entered a happy-clappy period of globalisation where countries did not go to war, geo-political risk was ignored and all investments were safe. Amazingly, in June 1914,onthe eve of the First World War, yields on British government bonds were 3.6 per cent. Equally striking is the fact that Europe's stock markets continued to rally throughout July 1914 - weeks after Gavrilo Princip had assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand. According to fascinating research carried out recently at Harvard by Professor Niall Ferguson, only on July 22, 1914, did the European markets begin to get jittery. Until August 1, when German and Russian armies were mobilising on the continent, The New York Times was still suggesting that war could be avoided. On August 3, the world's stock markets simply shut down and did not open again for months and months. How's that for the financial market's legendary foresight? If there was a war coming, the financial markets certainly did not see it! Let's contrast these facts with the story our history books recount about the run-up to World War I. I can still remember the way it was taught in school. A typical Leaving Cert question would be phrased: “Trace the causes of the outbreak of World War I.” The right answer would begin by stating that it was all, in some way, inevitable. The student will talk about the decades of instability in the Balkans, the fragility of the Russian monarchy, the ambitions of the Kaiser's Germany, the Triple Alliance and so on. The basic narrative which we all learned was that, if you were knocking around Vienna, Paris or London at the time and didn't see this one coming, you were some sort of eejit. But the reality is quite different. The people paid to forecast the future at the time – who were as sophisticated, learned and greedy as anyone hanging out on a trading floor today - hadn't a clue. “Ah, yes,” some will argue, “but today we have trading screens, instantaneous live feeds, 24/7 news and the like, so the financial markets have perfect information all the time.’' Really? The only difference between 1914 and 2005 is a matter of hours, not weeks. Remember the old global telegram system? While not the internet, it wasn't bad. And it was certainly well beyond the days when a system of spies in both camps allowed the great Nathan Rothschild to make a fortune by knowing the outcome of the Battle of Waterloo before anyone else in London. One of the most interesting financial lessons of the run-up to World War I is that, contrary to today's popular history, no-one saw it coming. Second, when the apocalypse became apparent, the financial markets - rather than reacting quickest - actually went into a collective state of denial for weeks. Further, when the severity of the situation finally dawned on these latter-day “masters of the universe'‘, far from rationally absorbing the news and re-pricing risk accordingly, they simply ran for cover and shut down the exchanges! What is so fascinating is the false belief that financial markets can assess the future. They can't. They can have a decent stab and most of the time they are right, but missing World War I completely ranks as a bit of a boo-boo, particularly as Leaving Cert students will tell you that global geo-political risk was evidently rising dramatically in the period 1904-1914. During these years, a paradox emerged where financial risk (as measured by global interest rates) diminished at precisely the same time as geopolitical risk (as measured by arms build-up, nationalist problems at the fringes of the big empires and vulnerability at the core of those empires themselves) rose. Fast-forward to today and arguably the same paradox is emerging across the globe. Financial risk is diminishing constantly, while geo-political risk - whether in Iraq, China or the price of oil - appears to be rising. The potential for conflict, while not apparently on the scale of 1914, is there. Indeed, the surprising weakness of the world's hyperpower, the US - in Baghdad, in New Orleans or in its basic inability to pay its bills without having to borrow from the rest of us - is increasing geo-political risk. No one is saying that we are on the cusp of a major world disaster. However, it does appear logical that banks and investment houses should spend more time looking at geo-political risk when making their decisions regarding your money. The financial-versus-political risk paradox is now evident, with the financial markets telling us everything is hunky dory when patently it is not. I'm not sure where the real risk is. It's probably somewhere below where it was in July 1914 and somewhere above the chance of me becoming my own wife! Place your bets.

Subject: Re: Financial Markets blind to worldwide risk From: Setanta To: Setanta Date Posted: Mon, Oct 17, 2005 at 11:11:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: just back from getting some autumn sun in southern spain. i left malaga where it was a balmy 27 degrees celsius to land in foggy dublin that was 7 degrees! as a result my tan has faded to a casper white and can feel the nascent onslaught of a cold!

Subject: Gasoline Prices (A. B. Krueger) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 17, 2005 at 05:02:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Why the Tepid Response to Higher Gasoline Prices? By ALAN B. KRUEGER The New York Times, Economic Scene October 13, 2005 Americans consume 45 percent of all gasoline produced worldwide. Our appetite for gasoline leads to dependence on Mideast suppliers and contributes to greenhouse gases, creating risks for national security and the environment. Some have seen a silver lining in the sharp rise in gasoline prices in recent years: higher prices should lead Americans to conserve. This is just a simple application of the law of demand. An increase in the price of a good usually leads consumers to buy less of it. When it comes to gasoline, however, there are reasons to be pessimistic that the higher prices we have seen lately will have much effect, particularly in the near term. Research shows that in the short run - over a year, say - the response to higher gasoline prices is weak. Most studies find that a 10 percent increase in gas prices in a year is associated with a 1 to 2 percent drop in the quantity of gasoline purchased in that year. Recent experience suggests a more muted response. From September 2004 to September 2005, the average retail gasoline price jumped to $2.90 a gallon from $1.87, or 55 percent, according to the Energy Information Agency. Yet gasoline consumption dropped only 3.5 percent, to 8.83 million barrels a day in September 2005 from 9.15 million barrels a day in September 2004 - and these figures may overstate the drop because the Energy Department measures gasoline distribution before it reaches the retailer, and retailers may have used more of their inventories when Katrina disrupted the supply chain. Regardless, past estimates would have predicted a larger drop of 5.5 to 11 percent. In the short run, some people drive less when gas prices rise or they buy a more fuel-efficient car, but most do not change their lifestyle and just complain about prices. Over a longer period, a bigger response is expected as additional people replace their cars with more fuel-efficient models. Estimates of the long-run response to past movements in prices imply that a 10 percent price rise causes 5 to 10 percent less consumption, other things being equal. This points to a recent puzzle. The nationwide average price of gasoline surged 53 percent from 1998 to 2004, after adjusting for inflation. Yet consumption was up 10 percent in this period. Conventional wisdom would have predicted the price rise, which was mainly a result of external factors, to cause a 26.5 to 53 percent drop in gas consumption. Of course, many other things changed in this period. Perhaps most important, the real gross domestic product grew by 19 percent from 1998 to 2004. This would ordinarily be expected to push gasoline sales up about 20 percent, which is not enough to overwhelm the anticipated drop caused by higher prices. Three factors might explain this puzzle. First, many consumers probably viewed recent price increases as temporary. If the price jumps today but is expected to return to normal tomorrow, there is little reason to buy a more fuel-efficient car. In the 1980's and 1990's, most gas price increases did not last. By my calculation, about half of all price gyrations were eroded within four years. Second, Pinelopi Goldberg of Yale says car companies often cut prices of large cars when gas prices rise. Third, new research by Kenneth Small and Kurt Van Dender of the University of California, Irvine, suggests that consumers responded less to price increases in the late 1990's than previously because income growth meant spending on gasoline had become a smaller share of the cost of driving. A change in the way people respond to gas prices affects policy. A 2003 study by the Congressional Budget Office considered two ways to reduce gas consumption by 10 percent: a 46-cent increase in the gas tax and stricter average fuel economy standards, which penalize automakers if their fleet fails to achieve a specified number of miles per gallon. The study found that the tax cut consumption at a slightly lower cost to society. But if consumers cut consumption less in response to higher gasoline costs than they used to, the balance would tilt more toward stricter mileage standards for automakers. In August, Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta made a step in this direction by proposing stricter standards on S.U.V.'s, pickup trucks and minivans. He could curb gasoline use further and close a loophole by placing miles-per-gallon standards on vehicles that weigh 8,500 to 10,000 pounds when loaded, like the Hummer H2. Of course, a gas tax has an advantage over fuel efficiency standards: it raises revenue, and even more so if demand is less responsive to gas costs. A higher gas tax would also immediately affect drivers of existing cars and afford flexibility, whereas stricter mileage standards would affect only new cars and would rigidly apply to all carmakers. But tougher fuel efficiency standards and a gasoline tax increase are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, consumers would probably complain less about a higher gasoline tax if their cars got more miles to the gallon. Alan B. Krueger (www.krueger.princeton.edu) is the Bendheim professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University.

Subject: Macro Textbook: New Chapters From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 17, 2005 at 03:15:59 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.worthpublishers.com/krugmanwellsnew/main.htm

Subject: Les jeux sont faits. Rien ne va plus! From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 15, 2005 at 04:53:47 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late Breaking Commentary/IO/2005/IO October 2005.htm

Subject: Re: Les jeux sont faits. Rien ne va plus! From: Pete Weis To: Pancho Villa Date Posted: Sat, Oct 15, 2005 at 22:09:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Paul Krugman has stated that he believes the dollar will begin to fall more steeply when the housing market begins to decline - he suggested possibly during the first qtr of 2006 (Bill Gross seems to somewhat agree on the timing of the end to the housing ATM). If this happens, it will be interesting to see if the Fed will truely begin to lower rates in the face of a shrinking dollar.

Subject: All for one, one for all ? From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 15, 2005 at 04:11:27 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: The indispensable United Nations By Joseph Stiglitz The United Nations' sixtieth anniversary summit in September reflected its strengths and importance in the many areas in which the international community must work together. Unfortunately, the summit also exposed the UN's weaknesses and limitations. Founded at the end of World War II to prevent another major disaster of that kind, the UN has now vastly expanded its mandate beyond peacekeeping, as important as that is. For instance, the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), adopted at the UN Millennium summit five years ago, proclaimed the international community's resolve to reduce poverty in all of its manifestations and set concrete goals to be achieved by 2015. Reaching political consensus on such complex issues is never easy, given the diversity of interests that must be addressed. Success requires diplomacy and patience, and the UN's latest summit continued the march forward in the creation of a community of nations responsible for the well being of all. To be sure, the attempt by America's new UN ambassador, John Bolton, to introduce hundreds of last-minute changes to the summit's concluding declaration doomed the agreement — perhaps deliberately — to being less comprehensive and forceful than had been hoped. Indeed, Bolton even wanted to eliminate any reference to the MDG. Nevertheless, even the United States had to give way in the end to this moral imperative. The summit's declaration also enunciated, in refined diplomatic language, new rights and obligations concerning international intervention in a country's internal matters, as in Darfur. We are, it seems, at last becoming a world in which each of us is our brother's keeper. Some have suggested that the Iraq war proved the UN's irrelevance. On the contrary, I believe that the Iraq debacle underscores the value of the UN, and the need to strengthen it further. Let's not forget that, within the limits of its powers, the UN worked. It was asked to judge whether there was an imminent threat to world peace requiring pre-emptive military action. After reviewing the evidence, it concluded that the case for going to war had not been made, while the risk of turmoil — about which most experts in the region warned — almost certainly weighed on the deliberations. Since then, evidence has mounted not only that there were no weapons of mass destruction, but that the American and British governments provided deceptive, distorted and misleading information. Similarly, the evidence is overwhelming that there was little if any link between Iraq and Al Qaeda — at least before the war. In other words, deliberative democracy — perhaps our most important safeguard against headstrong and reckless action — worked at the UN, but not in the US. Unfortunately, the UN could not prevent the US and other countries from taking actions that almost surely contravene international law. The story since then is well known. When weapons of mass destruction were not found, the US and its small (and dwindling) “coalition of the willing” conjured up a new rationale — the struggle for democracy. But if that were the objective, clearly a long list of countries should have been drawn up, and it is hardly certain that Iraq would have come out on top. Replacing repressive dictatorships would, in fact, represent a vast expansion of the UN's mandate, one that I suspect the US would not support. More to the point, it did not bode well for a supposedly democratising project to reject democratic processes at the UN. The US had made it clear that it would abide by only one outcome at the UN — a principle under which no democratic body can operate, for to insist that a decision must accord with the wishes of one member is dictatorship. Subsequent events have shown how difficult it is — even for the strongest country in the world — to impose a stable democratic regime. Iraq thus showed both the strength and the limitations of the UN. Inevitably, its major source of strength is moral suasion. Even most Americans were reluctant to enter Iraq without the UN's blessing. The democratic deliberative process worked, and it yielded the right answer. This should enhance confidence in the UN. But the UN needs to be strengthened, by, for example, funding a permanent peacekeeping force. Too often, UN peace-keeping missions require passing the hat among the advanced industrial countries, giving them virtual veto power over when, where, and how the UN acts. At the same time, a strengthened economic and social security council would enable the UN to shape more effectively debates about reforming the global economic and financial system. Today, by contrast, such debates are too often centred at the IMF, where the financial interests of the advanced industrial countries predominate. These reforms will eventually come. Globalisation has meant closer international integration, and that in turn has meant a greater need for collective action. The UN is the international institution created for that purpose, and as the world changes, the UN must change with it. But meaningful reform will almost surely have to await an American administration that is committed to global democracy in deed as well as rhetoric. The writer, a Nobel laureate in economics, is professor of economics at Columbia University and was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to President Clinton and chief economist and senior vice president at the World Bank. His most recent book is “The Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World's Most Prosperous Decade”. ©Project Syndicate, 2005. http://www.jordantimes.com/thu/opinion/opinion5.htm

Subject: October 14 column From: Larry Epke To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 14, 2005 at 14:40:06 (EDT) Email Address: lepke@thecha.org Message: Here's a link for Paul's column 'Questions of Character.' Questions of Character www.truthout.org/docs_2005/101405K.shtml

Subject: Re: October 14 column From: Yann To: Larry Epke Date Posted: Mon, Oct 17, 2005 at 02:32:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank you, Larry.

Subject: Where is Emma From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 14, 2005 at 14:23:19 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I’m getting withdrawal symptoms from not reading Emma’s informative posts. Come, come … I need this. Emma… post dammit… post.

Subject: education From: r branch To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 14, 2005 at 10:51:47 (EDT) Email Address: mikalama@yahoo.com Message: Did Paul Krugman attend Kalamazoo College for a brief time as an undergraduate?

Subject: Haunting history From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 13, 2005 at 14:19:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'Ironically, in 1985, as a paid consultant to Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings & Loan, Greenspan proclaimed that its management was 'seasoned and expert' -- with a 'record of outstanding success in making sound and profitable direct investments.' He later wrote a letter to Edwin Gray, then-chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, telling Gray to 'stop worrying so much,' and 'that deregulation was working as planned.' Greenspan noted 17 S&Ls that had just reported record profits. Within four years, 15 of those 17 institutions were out of business, costing the Federal Savings & Loan Insurance Corp. $3 billion.' - Bill Fleckenstein

Subject: Re: Haunting history From: Terri To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 13, 2005 at 19:47:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Interesting passage. Thank you, I will soon begin to post more again :)

Subject: Haunting future? From: Pete Weis To: Terri Date Posted: Sat, Oct 15, 2005 at 21:48:18 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The Great Derivatives Smackdown Ari Weinberg, 05.09.03, 3:15 PM ET Recently Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and noted investor Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (nyse: BRK.a - news - people ) have participated in a mediated back-and-forth on the value and risks of derivatives. But, as far as we know, they have yet to air their views tete-a-tete. At stake is the unfathomable $56 trillion notional value of derivatives contracts between U.S. commercial banks and counterparties, measured by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency at the end of 2002. The entire market, around the world, is estimated at over $100 trillion. But such notional amounts--the face amount of the underlying security--are rarely realized. Derivative instruments, most often used to mitigate interest-rate risks, can be used to hedge any type of risk exposure in any market. In light of the use of corporate credit derivatives and products peddled by Enron (otc: ENRNQ - news - people ), such as bandwidth and weather, Buffett has soured on the efficacy of derivatives. At Berkshire-owned General Re, its General Re Securities unit, though shuttered, is still stuck with 14,384 contracts outstanding with 672 counterparties, so far amounting to $6.5 billion in receivables. How does that compare to other institutions? Well, both Greenspan and Buffett claim that derivatives values and liabilities are difficult for even their holders to track. Insurance giant American International Group (nyse: AIG - news - people ), by nature of its business, provides extensive disclosure in its annual report. At the end of 2002, AIG's Financial Products unit had $14.9 billion in risk related to credit derivatives and a notional amount in its credit-derivative portfolio of $126 billion. Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) said it holds $37.5 billion worth of derivatives in assets on its trading account, or 24% of that account, and $41 billion in liabilities, 45% of its trading-account liabilities. Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ) had an average of $25.3 billion in derivative assets and $17.3 billion in derivative liabilities in 2002. The party line from most major financial institutions is that they believe their risk is minimal. Still, in certain cases, firms take cash or marketable securities as collateral for derivatives contracts. Buffett fears that there is a lynchpin out there in the derivatives market that, when pulled, will send the financial world into a spin. Essentially, the Oracle of Omaha wants nothing to do with this hot-air market. Greenspan, too, sees the high concentration of derivatives contracts at so few firms as a pitfall. His answer, however, is to educate and spread the risk around. Alan Greenspan: 'Although the benefits and costs of derivatives remain the subject of spirited debate, the performance of the economy and the financial system in recent years suggests that those benefits have materially exceeded the costs.' Warren Buffett: 'We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.' Alan Greenspan: 'Except where market discipline is undermined by moral hazard, owing, for example, to federal guarantees of private debt, private regulation generally is far better at constraining excessive risk-taking than is government regulation.' Warren Buffett: 'There is no central bank assigned to the job of preventing the dominoes toppling in insurance or derivatives....[Total return swaps and] other types of derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions.' Alan Greenspan: 'One development that gives me and others some pause is the decline in the number of major derivatives dealers and its potential implications for market liquidity and for concentration of counterparty credit risk.' Warren Buffett: 'Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one another.' Alan Greenspan: 'Even the largest corporate defaults in history (WorldCom and Enron) and the largest sovereign default in history (Argentina) have not significantly impaired the capital of any major financial intermediary.' Warren Buffett: 'In the energy and utility sectors, companies used derivatives and trading activities to report great 'earnings'--until the roof fell in when they actually tried to convert the derivatives-related receivables on their balance sheets into cash. 'Mark-to-market' then turned out to truly be 'mark-to-myth.'' Alan Greenspan: 'We have made great strides in expanding the volume of publicly disclosed information related to risk exposures and derivatives. A more complex question is whether this greater volume of information has led to comparable improvements in the transparency of firms.' Warren Buffett: 'Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.'

Subject: Tipping point? From: Pete Weis To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 13, 2005 at 09:12:45 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: U.S. Investment Income Close to `Tipping Point': John M. Berry Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may be approaching a dangerous ``tipping point'' in its international transactions. At the end of last year, foreign investments in the U.S. were worth $2.5 trillion more than this country's investments in the rest of the world. Yet last year, those U.S. assets abroad remarkably still earned $30 billion more than the foreign assets here. That stunning disparity in returns is one of many reasons why the huge U.S. current account deficits of recent years have been so readily financed. The sagging net investment position wasn't being compounded by an ever higher interest bill -- as is the case with the mounting U.S. government debt. This year the game has changed. Net U.S. investment income turned negative by $455 million dollars in the second quarter, marking a swift deterioration from a $15 billion surplus in the first three months of 2004. If this trend continues -- and there's no reason to think it won't -- the U.S. will be paying a steadily rising net amount to foreigners, and those payments will both increase the U.S. current account deficit and worsen the country's net investment position. In a recently published analysis, economists Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas of the University of California at Berkeley and Helene Rey of Princeton University warned this situation could have serious consequences for the U.S. The Dollar's Credibility ``Reaching the `tipping point' where the U.S. for the first time since the second World War ceases to have a positive net return on its net assets could be seen by the market as a significant blow to the credibility of the dollar,'' the economists say. ``In a context where the external net worth of the U.S. is negative and the return on its net assets also turns negative, market participants could start demanding a higher premium on their dollar assets.'' That the U.S. has been able to sustain financing for its international deficits up to this point is primarily due to the American dollar being the world's principal reserve currency, the center of the global monetary system. Gourinchas and Rey's analysis traces how over the past half century U.S. investments abroad came to pay far greater returns than foreign investments here. The paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in August, is ``From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege.'' `Exorbitant Privilege' The phrase ``exorbitant privilege'' was coined by French Finance Minister Valery Giscard d'Estaing in 1965. He used it to describe ``the ability of the U.S. to run large direct investment surpluses, ultimately financed by the issuance of dollars held sometimes involuntarily by foreign central banks,'' the authors say. In those days, economists regarded the U.S. as ``the Banker of the World,'' lending for long and intermediate terms and borrowing short, they say. ``Since then, the U.S. has become an increasingly leveraged financial intermediary as world capital markets have become more and more integrated. Hence, a more accurate description of the U.S. in the last decade may be one of the `Venture Capitalist of the World,' issuing short term and fixed income liabilities and investing primarily in equity and direct investment abroad,'' Gourinchas and Rey write. U.S. Balance Sheet Initially, U.S. assets shifted from long-term bank loans to direct investments, such as the purchase of foreign companies, and in recent years, toward equity investments. Meanwhile, foreign investment has favored low-yielding safer assets, including bank loans, trade credit and debt, particularly Treasury securities. ``Hence the U.S. balance sheet resembles increasingly one of a venture capitalist with high return risky investments on the asset side,'' the economists say. ``Furthermore, its leverage ratio has increased sizably over time.'' Nevertheless, all the advantages that accrue to the U.S. as the provider of the central currency in the global monetary system can't forever offset the impact of the country consuming more than it produces. What if a ``tipping point'' has been reached? Gourinchas and Rey say their analysis ``does not imply that the current situation can be maintained indefinitely.'' The Possible Repercussions ``Foreign lenders could decide to stop financing the U.S. external deficit and run away from the dollar, either in favor of another currency such as the euro, or just as dramatically, require a risk premium on U.S. liquid assets whose safety could not be guaranteed any longer. ``In either case, the repercussions could be quite severe, with a decline in the value of the dollar, higher domestic interest rates and yields, and a global recession,'' they caution. ``In a world where the U.S. can supply the international currency at will, and invest it in illiquid assets, it still faces a confidence risk,'' they say. Should confidence be lost, the value of the dollar could plunge, and a world financial crisis could ensue. At that point, even the U.S. could be forced to stop living beyond its means.

Subject: For Bobby From: Sarah To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 12, 2005 at 16:42:57 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Dear Bobby, 'Maureen' is a troll and posts comments every few days. Please remove the 'Maureen' post. Since these vicious posts have begun, other posts have declined in number. Please do not let a troll harm this terrific blog.

Subject: AF(K,H,N) (part II) From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 12, 2005 at 05:49:14 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: From abroad, challenges to US role as top innovator Ramped-up R&D in China and India blunts economic edge of US. By Mark Trumbull Science Monitor For decades, America was the preeminent destination for the world's innovators. Scientists of all kinds left their homelands to learn the ropes at top-flight US universities - and often stayed put to earn high salaries. Many countries struggled to stop this brain drain to the US. But today, the giant sucking sound may be flowing in the other direction. Just this year, 325,000 Chinese earned engineering degrees. The US, by contrast, gave out just 60,000 - fewer than it did a decade ago. And international enrollment at US campuses has been falling. These numbers symbolize an emerging risk that developing nations like India and China, fueled by high education and lower labor costs, could leapfrog US leadership in innovation. But amid new calls to address a scientist 'shortage,' the need is not so much to match China and others numerically as to do something that may be even harder: to stay way ahead in the quality of research and the jobs it spawns. 'The jobs that exist are all going to go away,' says Gerard Alphonse, who heads the US branch of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 'What we need to do is create the new jobs that will not go away for the next 15 or 20 years.' Of course, not every American job is threatened. But innovation-intensive fields do face global competition, and success in those fields is widely seen as vital to a healthy economy with rising living standards. If concern about a science gap sounds like a lament as old as the Russian Sputnik satellite, the backdrop today is quite different from the 1950s or even the 1980s, when Japan's economic rise caused American angst. The reason lies in two factors: the growing number of nations with advanced skills, and a corresponding rise in the willingness of global corporations to locate research and production where profit opportunities are greatest. 'Companies are taking the latest tools and technologies to that foreign talent,' says Ron Hira, an expert on outsourcing at the Rochester Institute of Technology. The trick for nations like the US is to cultivate the kinds of research and related jobs that can't be easily done elsewhere. Given the global strategies of today's corporations, some economists say there's no guarantee that the free marketplace will produce that result. In a recent paper, Harvard University's Richard Freeman tackled the question, 'Does globalization of the scientific/engineering workforce threaten US economic leadership?' He outlines several trends that suggest the answer is yes. • By 1999, China ranked behind only the US, Japan, and Germany in publications on four emerging technologies. By 2004, China was third and closing in on Japan in one of those fields, nano- technology. • Companies are increasingly locating R&D facilities in China and India. • The US share of the world's science and engineering graduates is declining rapidly. On one level, this is simply a predictable reversal from an era of US hegemony as an economic superpower. In 1970, for example, American universities issued half the world's science and engineering doctorates. Now Europe alone outpaces the US in those doctorates, and China could be on pace to do so by 2010. To be sure, the US remains the acknowledged world leader in technological innovation. And in traditional economic theory, one nation's gain doesn't need to be another's loss. Economies can grow side by side, each specializing in the fields where they hold an advantage. But the US and other industrialized nations face a new threat, Dr. Freeman says. If populous developing nations capitalize on their combination of technical advancement and lower costs, they could 'do what the North-South trade models have assumed the South could not do: compete effectively in R&D intensive, high-tech industries.' Already, some signs appear troubling. Pay for electrical and electronics engineers fell in 2003 for the first time since surveys began in 1971. In that same year, their jobless rate hit 6.2 percent, well above the national average. Few experts see easy solutions. Some emphasize the 'do-no-harm' approach, warning against government meddling in the private sector. Spur research along with the rest of the economy, they argue, by keeping a lid on taxes, healthcare costs, and litigation. Others call for targeted policies to ensure America doesn't get left behind. Among the most common recommendations: Promote spending on research, recruit and retain talent from at home and abroad, and guard against provisions such as tax laws that help employers move jobs overseas. The most basic need, some say, is for America to keep pioneering fields so cutting-edge that other nations, for the most part, can't do them. 'It could be interdisciplinary things, or it could be higher-level things,' says Dr. Alphonse. To do that, some say federally funded university research is crucial. That's because corporations tend to focus on applied science rather than basic science that lays the groundwork for new industries. Federal spending on research in the physical sciences, when measured as a share of the national economy, has been falling for four decades, notes Don Giddens, dean of engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology, in Atlanta. 'There are some choices that we're making right now,' he says, 'that will hurt us.' http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1012/p04s01-usec.html

Subject: Paul Krugman: Will Bush Deliver? From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 10, 2005 at 19:56:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ Paul Krugman: Will Bush Deliver? By Mark Thoma How will Bush pay for the post Hurricane Katrina reconstruction effort? Tax increases? Budget cuts? Hope the Fed prints money? Push it off to the future? Krugman starts his latest column by wondering if we're asking the right question. He is not sure there will be a large bill to pay after all because he doubts the administration will deliver the help it said it would give: Will Bush Deliver?, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...Bear with me while I make the case for doubting whether Mr. Bush will make good on his promise. First, Mr. Bush already has a record of trying to renege on pledges to a stricken city. After 9/11 he made big promises to New York. But as soon as his bullhorn moment was past, officials began trying to wriggle out of his pledge. ... It's not clear how much federal help the city has actually received. With that precedent in mind, consider this: Congress has just gone on recess. By the time it returns, seven weeks will have passed since the levees broke. And the administration has spent much of that time blocking efforts to aid Katrina's victims. In the news lately, though not prominently enough for Krugman's taste, is the fight over a bipartisan bill to extend Medicaid coverage to all low-income hurricane victims, some of whom can't afford the medicine they need. Since this is a fight the White House has led, Krugman wonders: Since the administration is already nickel-and-diming Katrina's victims, it's a good bet that it will do the same with reconstruction - that is, if reconstruction ever gets started. ... what's striking to me is that there are no visible signs that the administration has even begun developing a plan. ... And as far as we can tell, nobody is in charge. I remember hearing that Karl Rove would lead the reconstruction effort. Is anybody in charge of this drifting ship?: Last month The New York Times reported that Karl Rove had been placed in charge of post-Katrina reconstruction. But last week ... the White House press secretary denied that Mr. Rove ... was ever running reconstruction. So who is in charge? 'The president,' said Mr. McClellan. With the president in charge, Krugman expects nothing but foot-dragging on post-Katrina reconstruction. But isn't that politically risky? How can a strategy of reneging on promises pay political dividends? I've been reading 'Off Center,' an important new book by Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson, political scientists at Yale and Berkeley respectively. ... One of their 'new rules for radicals' is 'Don't just do something, stand there.' Frontal assaults on popular government programs tend to fail, as Mr. Bush learned in his hapless attempt to sell Social Security privatization. So foot-dragging, acting like you are addressing important problems while actually stalling as much as possible is politically effective? Hmmm. Maybe an example would help: For example, the public strongly supports a higher minimum wage, but conservatives have nonetheless managed to cut that wage in real terms by not raising it in the face of inflation. Right now, the public strongly supports a major reconstruction effort, so that's what Mr. Bush had to promise. But as the TV cameras focus on other places and other issues, will the administration pay a heavy political price for a reconstruction that starts slowly and gradually peters out? The New York experience suggests that it won't. I see. But suppose I'm not convinced that the administration is this clever. Are there any other explanations? Of course, I may be overanalyzing. Maybe the administration isn't deliberately dragging its feet on reconstruction. Maybe its lack of movement, like its immobility in the days after Katrina struck, reflects nothing more than out-of-touch leadership and a lack of competent people.

Subject: How to win hearts, minds and influence From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 10, 2005 at 18:05:36 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: JOHN QUELCH How soft power is winning hearts, minds and influence US foreign policy debates pit hard power, the exertion of military muscle, against soft power and public diplomacy - what Joseph Nye of Harvard calls 'the ability to get what you want through attraction, not coercion'. This same tension is evident in the corporate world. But in this world soft power is winning. The days of the command-and-control, take-no-prisoners 'hero' chief executive are numbered. In today's complex global economy, not even the mighty Exxon-Mobil with its army of hired-gun lawyers and lobbyists can unilaterally achieve everything it needs to maximise shareholder value not least the goodwill of a justifiably sceptical public. By contrast, John Browne, BP's quiet leader, has embraced the company's responsibilities to address global warming and invest in alternative energy sources 'beyond petroleum'. With its broader shareholder perspective, BP is seen as part of the solution. Exxon-Mobil, with a narrower short-term focus on shareholder value is, rightly or wrongly, seen as part of the problem. Business success increasingly depends on the subtleties of soft power. Companies seek to establish long-term relationships with their customers rather than rely on one-off transactions. And rather than going it alone or taking full control of businesses they acquire, soft-power companies engage in networks of win-win alliances with their suppliers and consumers, sometimes even with their competitors through industry associations or bilateral partnerships. Ebay exemplifies the modern soft-power company, a community of users who collectively shape the brand and the rules of conduct for participating. Ebay does not view its consumers in military terms as 'targets' that it subjects to marketing 'campaigns' but as the company's most important asset. Hard-power companies treat all markets around the world in a standard way. Soft-power companies are more culturally resilient and willing to adapt their products and marketing programmes to meet local needs. They hire and develop local executives to run their subsidiaries, while hard-power companies still deploy expatriate managers whom they know will reliably implement headquarters' decisions. In the face of increasing anti-American sentiment, US multinationals have been turning to soft-power initiatives to maintain international sales. Some, such as McDonald's, emphasise their contributions to local economies the number of local employees and managers, partnerships with local franchisees and the use of local raw materials. Others, such as IBM, have local employees volunteer help to schools and government agencies to raise educational standards, recognising that long-term economic growth will lead to more business opportunities. To distance themselves from hard-power US foreign policy, many American multinationals now portray themselves as supranational brands, owned by their customers around the world. They want to be seen as good local citizens in each country's market. To this end, IBM and Citigroup increasingly allocate their philanthropic efforts around the world in proportion to where sales and profits are derived. CEOs of multinationals and their local managers have to be good diplomats to secure government procurement contracts, especially in emerging economies. The days when Enron could bully the chief minister of Maharashtra province in India to accept its terms for a new power plant are long gone. Even dominant multinationals with leading edge technology have to soften their image. Microsoft still plays hardball, aggressively defending its intellectual property. But Bill Gates, the founder, has committed billions through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to tackle healthcare crises in Africa. Ted Turner is another hard-driving founder-entrepreneur who is giving back; he pledged a billion dollars to the United Nations. Of course, there are still successful hard-power CEOs running leading US companies. Their single-minded focus on winning at all costs may boost short-term shareholder value but, in the long run, a broad-minded and adaptive soft-power perspective will prevail. In the boardroom, as on the field of combat, it is possible to win the battle but lose the war for hearts and minds. The writer is a professor at Harvard Business School FT Monday October 10 2005

Subject: And the 2005 Nobel winners are... From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 10, 2005 at 07:09:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Robert J. AUMANN and Thomas C. SCHELLING 'for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis'

Subject: Re: And the 2005 Nobel winners are... From: Maureen To: Yann Date Posted: Mon, Oct 10, 2005 at 11:17:22 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Once again, Paul Krugman has failed to win the Nobel Prize in economics. As noted, this year's winners are Robert J. Aumann and Thomas C. Schelling, 'for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis.' Why them, and not Krugman? One clue is Aumann's academic affiliation. He is with the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Krugman isn't at the center of anything. And he has nothing to do with rationality.

Subject: Re: And the 2005 Nobel winners are... From: Mik To: Maureen Date Posted: Mon, Oct 10, 2005 at 20:41:56 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hhhmm the Nobel prize shared with greats such as Yasser Arafat and Henry Kissinger. So Maureen which of those two is your favourite and which do you think is more deserving of the Nobel Prize? Yasser Arafat who we know is the the long time leader of the terrorist movement known as the PLO. Or do you prefer close Bush confidant and advisor, Henry Kissinger, who is also the person who ordered the bombing of Cambodia that killed over 500,000 innocent people. (Cambodia was not part of the Viet Nam war yet the US bombed the country). So tell us Maureen, who is your favourite Nobel prize winner....??

Subject: Re: And the 2005 Nobel winners are... From: JM To: Mik Date Posted: Tues, Oct 11, 2005 at 17:12:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Imagine, we have an idiot troll. Here idiot trolly wholly....

Subject: Re: And the 2005 Nobel winners are... From: Maureen To: JM Date Posted: Tues, Oct 11, 2005 at 23:40:11 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: JM - You shouldn't be so hard on Mik.

Subject: Gone with the wind From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 08, 2005 at 06:10:04 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: Sunday, September 25, 2005 Bush inherits the wind — Jeffrey Sachs The most shocking statement in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was President George W Bush’s remark that “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees” that protect New Orleans from flooding. New Orleans is a city mostly below sea level, and must be protected by levees to keep water out. Concern that the levees might break in the midst of a powerful hurricane was widespread among scientists, engineers, and emergency-preparedness experts. Yet Bush apparently did not know of these concerns, even days after the hurricane destroyed the levees and flooded the city. There is a simple fact on display here, one that goes well beyond this particular hurricane, and even this particular president. There is a deep disconnect in American politics between scientific knowledge and political decisions. Bush bears much responsibility for this. He has proven to be one of America’s least knowledgeable presidents when it comes to science — and one of the most ready to turn science into a political issue. In recent months, Bush undermined biological theories of evolution in favour of Christian fundamentalist dogmas. He disdains climate science and public health science when it conflicts with the beliefs — and interests — of his core supporters. Simply put, Bush’s record on science policy is miserable. Climate scientists have warned for years that global warming caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases will generate more extreme storms. While there is no scientific way to link a particular hurricane such as Katrina to the long-term trend — in the sense that Katrina might have been bad luck rather than a sign of man-made climate change — the energy of hurricanes throughout the world has been rising markedly. Bush, alas, led an aggressive effort to discredit climate science rather than to respond to its findings. He called for delays in reducing greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, which in turn causes the energy of hurricanes to rise. According to the underlying science that Bush ignores, hurricanes take their energy from the warmth of seawater. That is why hurricanes occur in hot tropical regions, and at the end of the summer months, when the sea surface temperatures are at their annual maximum. Manmade global warming raises not only air temperatures, but sea-surface temperatures as well. Higher sea-surface temperatures translate into more powerful storms in the world’s oceans. Hurricanes are measured according to three dimensions: frequency, intensity, and duration. The frequency of hurricanes has not changed much, if at all. The big changes are in hurricanes’ intensity and duration. Intensity measures a hurricane’s force, which includes wind speeds, and there has been some recorded increase. The biggest change, however, has been in the duration of hurricanes: how many days each hurricane lasts. Duration has risen markedly around the world. The total energy of a hurricane is found by multiplying the intensity of the hurricane by its duration. This, too, has risen sharply, and more is in store as temperatures rise. Scientists and engineers working on climate change stress that governments need to adopt two main responses. The first, called “mitigation”, means reducing the amount of man-made climate change. This can be done by changing the world’s energy system to limit emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere — the main driver of manmade climate change. One option is a shift to non-carbon energy sources, such as renewable energy (solar and wind power) and nuclear energy. Another option is to combine carbon-based energy (coal, oil, and gas) with new technologies that prevent the emission of airborne carbon. The second response to climate change, called “adaptation”, requires that we ready ourselves for the climate change now underway and the increased climate change to come in future years. This means preparing for hurricanes that are more powerful in both intensity and duration. An attentive national government would surely have realised that the Gulf region of the United States is more vulnerable to high-energy hurricanes. (Hurricane Katrina was the third most intense hurricane ever to make landfall in the US.) Such a government would have taken more action to strengthen levees. The Bush administration’s negligence is especially shocking given the remarkable amount of scientific expertise that exists in the US. Somehow, scientists have been pushed aside by political operators. But the US government’s failings are matched in many parts of the world, and certainly in the poorest countries, where scientific expertise is scarce, and where many governments do not have scientific advisory councils to turn to for guidance. Hurricane Katrina is a wake-up call, not only for the US but also for the world. We are entering a period when good science is vital for our survival. On a crowded planet with threats to our climate, oceans, forests, food production, and water supply, and with global travel and high population densities increasing the risk of worldwide disease epidemics, we must turn to the best of our scientific and engineering knowledge to find a safe passage. Jeffrey Sachs is professor of economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_25-9-2005_pg3_7

Subject: Re: Gone with the wind From: Emma To: Pancho Villa Date Posted: Sat, Oct 08, 2005 at 21:38:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Well done, well called for. After travel, we must follow this thread.

Subject: Krugman on NPR, Social Security Private From: AB To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 21:49:13 (EDT) Email Address: abhattac@kent.edu Message: Fresh Air 17 Feb 2005 Social Security, private savings Krugman, Fresh Air, Social Security (Private Savings) www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4502841

Subject: Krugman on NPR, Social Security Math From: AB To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 21:47:55 (EDT) Email Address: abhattac@kent.edu Message: Fresh Air 17 Feb 2005 Social Security: the math Paul Krugman on NPR, Social Security www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4502844

Subject: Paul Krugman on NPR From: AB To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 21:43:28 (EDT) Email Address: abhattac@kent.edu Message: Fresh Air, with Terri Gross 7 October 2005 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4947769 Paul Krugman on Fresh Air www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4947769

Subject: Isn't the world a lovely place From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 17:24:29 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: My Little Pony, My Little Pony Isn't the world a lovely place My Little Pony, My Little Pony Everywhere you go, a smiling face Running and skipping; merrily tripping Watching the morning unfold My Little Pony, My Little Pony What does the future hold? ...................................... No sign of trouble in sight My Little Pony, My Little Pony May all your days be bright May all your days be bright --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- - Cronyism By RANDY E. BARNETT October 4, 2005 During the Clinton impeachment imbroglio, Alexander Hamilton's definition of 'impeachable offense' from Federalist No. 65 was plastered from one end of the media to the other. With the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, get ready for another passage from Hamilton to get similar play -- this one from Federalist No. 76: 'To what purpose then require the co-operation of the Senate? I answer, that the necessity of their concurrence would have a powerful, though, in general, a silent operation. It would be an excellent check upon a spirit of favoritism in the President, and would tend greatly to prevent the appointment of unfit characters from State prejudice, from family connection, from personal attachment, or from a view to popularity… He would be both ashamed and afraid to bring forward, for the most distinguished or lucrative stations, candidates who had no other merit than that of coming from the same State to which he particularly belonged, or of being in some way or other personally allied to him, or of possessing the necessary insignificance and pliancy to render them the obsequious instruments of his pleasure.' (The italics are mine.) * * * Harriet Miers is not just the close confidante of the president in her capacity as his staff secretary and then as White House counsel. She also was George W. Bush's personal lawyer. Apart from nominating his brother or former business partner, it is hard to see how the president could have selected someone who fit Hamilton's description any more closely. Imagine the reaction of Republicans if President Clinton had nominated Deputy White House Counsel Cheryl Mills, who had ably represented him during his impeachment proceedings, to the Supreme Court. How about Bernie Nussbaum? As the quote from Hamilton suggests, the core purpose of Senate confirmation of presidential nominees is to screen out the appointment of 'cronies,' which Merriam-Webster defines as 'a close friend especially of long standing.' Cronyism is bad not only because it leads to less qualified judges, but also because we want a judiciary with independence from the executive branch. A longtime friend of the president who has served as his close personal and political adviser and confidante, no matter how fine a lawyer, can hardly be expected to be sufficiently independent -- especially during the remaining term of her former boss. By characterizing this appointment as cronyism, I mean to cast no aspersions on Ms. Miers. I imagine she is an intelligent and able lawyer. To hold down the spot of White House counsel she must be that and more. She must also be personally loyal to the president and an effective bureaucratic infighter, two attributes that are not on the top of the list of qualifications for the Supreme Court. To be qualified, a Supreme Court justice must have more than credentials; she must have a well-considered 'judicial philosophy,' by which is meant an internalized view of the Constitution and the role of a justice that will guide her through the constitutional minefield that the Supreme Court must navigate. Nothing in Harriet Miers's professional background called upon her to develop considered views on the extent of congressional powers, the separation of powers, the role of judicial precedent, the importance of states in the federal system, or the need for judges to protect both the enumerated and unenumerated rights retained by the people. It is not enough simply to have private opinions on these complex matters; a prospective justice needs to have wrestled with them in all their complexity before attaining the sort of judgment that decision-making at the Supreme Court level requires, especially in the face of executive or congressional disagreement. Even a star quarterback with years of high school and college football under his belt takes years of experience and hard knocks to develop the knowledge and instincts needed to survive in the NFL. The Supreme Court is the big league of the legal profession, and Ms. Miers has never even played the judicial equivalent of high school ball, much less won a Heisman Trophy. Ms. Miers would be well qualified for a seat on a court of appeals, where she could develop a grasp of all these important issues. She would then have to decide what role text and original meaning should play in constitutional interpretation in the context of close cases and very difficult decisions. The Supreme Court is no place to confront these issues for the very first time. Given her lack of experience, does anyone doubt that Ms. Miers's only qualification to be a Supreme Court justice is her close connection to the president? Would the president have ever picked her if she had not been his lawyer, his close confidante, and his adviser? Of course, Hamilton also thought that the existence of Senate confirmation would deter the nomination of cronies: 'The possibility of rejection would be a strong motive to care in proposing. The danger to his own reputation, and, in the case of an elective magistrate, to his political existence, from betraying a spirit of favoritism, or an unbecoming pursuit of popularity, to the observation of a body whose opinion would have great weight in forming that of the public, could not fail to operate as a barrier to the one and to the other.' While the Senate once successfully resisted President Lyndon Johnson's attempt to nominate his own highly able crony, Abe Fortas, to be chief justice, perhaps the performance of senators during the Roberts nomination reduced the deterrent effect of 'advise and consent.' Judiciary Committee Democrats spent half their time making speeches rather than questioning. What questions they did ask were not carefully designed to ferret out the nominee's judicial philosophy, favoring instead to inquire about his feelings, or whether he would stand up for the 'little guy,' or bemoaning his refusal to telegraph how he would rule on particular cases likely to come before the court. For their part, Senate Republicans were content to parrot the empty line that a judge 'should follow the law and not legislate from the bench.' Sit tight and vote seemed to be their approach. By refusing to demand a nominee with a judicial philosophy of adherence to the text of the Constitution -- the whole text, including the parts that limit federal and state powers -- Republicans did nothing to induce the White House to send up a nominee who was at least as committed to limits on federal power as Chief Justice William Rehnquist and Justice Sandra Day O'Connor had been. Times like these demand a justice with a firm grasp on constitutional text, history and principles. Someone who can resist the severe pressure brought by Congress, by the executive branch, by state and local governments, and also by fellow justices to exceed the Constitution's limits on government power. Does anything in her record suggest that Harriet Miers will be that sort of justice? We do not need to wait for Senate hearings to answer this question. What hearings will tell us, however, is whether the Senate, too, will succumb, in Hamilton's words, to 'a spirit of favoritism.' Mr. Barnett is the Austin B. Fletcher Professor of Law at Boston University and the author of 'Restoring the Lost Constitution: The Presumption of Liberty' (Princeton, 2004) http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB112838640165859103-lMyQjAxMDE1MjA4NDMwODQ2Wj.html

Subject: South African Land Ownership From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 12:40:30 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The issue of South African land ownership is important, but there is no conflict between old disputes and the new law. White settlers own overwhelming tracts of land which was taken many generations ago from black native peoples. There will have to be gradual redress, but I am entirely hopeful the redress will involve just compensation and be partial and done with legal oversight. Disputed land that was taken in the final years of Apartheid is being handled by arbitration, which is a different problem and program than the recently passed law entails. The recently passed law is meant to decide ownership rights of land held for many generations.

Subject: I hope I haven't typed this for nothing From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 15:53:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: You said there will have to be “gradual redress” of land. Why don’t you acknowledge what the government officials have stated: over 60,000 land claims have been resolved and 20,000 to go. That is not gradual that is an accelerated redress. Also you need to keep good clarity between “commercial land” and “land” in general. It appears that these two concepts have been blurred. Right there are two issues here, and interestingly enough it can also apply to land restitution in Canada. 1. The one issue is post Apartheid (which would be during colonial years in Canada) 2. The second is pre-apartheid (which would apply to pre-colonisation in Canada). Trying to sort out claims on pre-Apartheid days is very difficult and in some cases too difficult. Trying to asses what land 'really' belonged to who, especially when tribes moved up and down. This is the equivalent to compensating North American Aboriginals for taking Manhattan. Interestingly enough South Africa has come a long way to solving this problem. In fact the old Apartheid government also tried to give some form of land restitution for pre-settler days and created 'home lands'. Unfortunately this was undertaken under dubious circumstances to achieve the core political objective of 'apart-heid'. But it does allow the present government to make use of the 'structure' of land restitution left by the previous government. That structure includes issues such as lease-hold deeds (presently converted to title deed) and land survey information. Post Apartheid era issues are much easier to track down. Land was forcibly removed from blacks for various reasons and no real form of restitution was given at the time. Whether removing communities to make way for a new highway or a commercial farm, restitution was pathetic at best. But the core difference is that there is a record of these forced removals that can be traced. I'm not aware of land that was taken in the final years of Apartheid, I can believe there was much land taken in those last years. But that would easily fall into the current restitution program and should be minor in comparison to the vast amounts of land (including full towns) that were taken away during the height of Apartheid (1970's). The biggest problem here is the size of the Black population has about tripled in the past 100 years. Areas that contained various tribes have become hopelessly too small to contain the tribe and their subsistence farming needs. To the best of archeological studies there are vast tracks of land that were un-inhabited. A tribal community may have moved through the land but was not residing on the land when the white settlers arrived. Who has claim to that land? Much of these vast tracks of land that were not inhabited (to the best of anyone's knowledge) were turned into commercial farms. This even includes desert reclamation programs of the previous government. People have a right to live in their traditional ways. People have a right to own land for commercial reasons. What happens when these two rights conflict? .... what do you? The South African government seems to appreciate that the overall economic good of the commercial farms outweighs the traditional rights. South Africa is regarded the bread basket of Africa, supplying most of Africa's grain and agricultural products. So this issue goes well beyond money and South African politics involving the entire continent. Luckily as I said before - commercial farm land is not the only land South Africa has. They still have vast sections of unused land. They are able to take that land and pass it on as a form of compensation, which they have been doing in a large scale. What other country has processed over 60,000 land claims? The race is on to complete all forms of land restitution with only 20,000 claims to go. And the government has already bought and expropriated much of the land – it now has to go to the next stage of legally passing it over…. So they are in good shape to meet the remaining claims. The first case of where a farmer who clearly lives on a piece of land that is proven to belong to a black group, does not want to let the land go (without better compensation) has come up. In view of the 60,000 claims already processed this is just too minor – but it appears to make a good NY Times story. White South African farmer does not want to give land back to the blacks. Who is right and who is wrong – I don’t know. It is kind of difficult if the land was bought under a bona-fide agreement in recent years. And I have to ask – what is the real compensation offered to the farmer and what is the price of nearby farms – ie: who is taking advantage of whom? Until I know that answer I won’t pass judgment. You have to give credit to the South African government for what they have already achieve in land restitution and resolving this problem. Again I ask, who has taken the money (short of 1 billion US$) the time and effort to redress their tainted history. Which country has processed and passed on over 60,000 land claims?

Subject: Re: I hope I haven't typed this for nothing From: liberal To: Mik Date Posted: Mon, Oct 10, 2005 at 21:28:40 (EDT) Email Address: liberal@nospam.invalid Message: 'Trying to sort out claims on pre-Apartheid days is very difficult and in some cases too difficult. Trying to asses what land 'really' belonged to who, especially when tribes moved up and down.' It's easy to know what to do. Henry George figured it out over a century ago. Instead of reallocating land, breaking it up, etc, just charge the current owners an annual fee comprising an estimate of the (Ricardian) rent from the unimproved land value.

Subject: Re: I hope I haven't typed this for nothing From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 16:09:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Excellent comments; I agree completely. I am simply distinguishing between land long owned by white households and land recently in dispute.

Subject: Beer business gone global? From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 09:31:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: LONDON - Brewing giant SABMiller Plc said on Friday its shareholders had voted in favour of its $7.8bn stock-and-cash takeover of South America’s second biggest brewer, Colombian-based Bavaria. SABMiller said shareholders at an extraordinary shareholder meeting had voted 98.09% in favour with 1.91% against. Under the Bavaria deal, SABMiller agreed to buy the 71.8% controlling stake in the brewer from the Santo Domingo family, and now needs to launch an offer to minority shareholders. The Bavaria takeover will make SABMiller the world’s second largest brewer after Belgium’s InBev, pushing it up one place to be ahead of US-based Anheuser-Busch (Budweiser). SABMiller, the #2 beer brewery in the world, was founded in 2002. It is the product of the sale of Miller Beer from Philip Morris (now Altria) to South African Breweries, a 108-year-old company. Although its origins are in South Africa, the worldwide company is managed mostly from London. (How many Americans now realize that Miller is a foreign-owned brew?) South African Brewers was a small, provincial concern until the 1990s. Because of the boycott of the apartheid regime, the company was confined to that country. Aside from beer, it dabbled in soft drinks, hotels, glass, textiles, food service and other businesses. After apartheid ended in the early 1990s, the company was poised to expand. First, it bought brewery operations in a number of African nations, where it spread its Castle Lager brand. It also started buying breweries in the newly emerging Eastern European market. In 1998, it purchased it first famous international brand, Pilsner Urquell from the Czech Republic. The firm made moves into China (where it is now the biggest foreign-based brewing company) and in India. It also went into Central America. The big move came with the 2002 purchase of Miller Brewing, the number two American brand, after Budweiser/Anheuser-Busch. What's truly remarkable is that the company raised the $5.6 billion to buy controlling interest in the company. (Altria, the ex-owner, still has a considerable stake in the Miller operation.) This past May, the company showed it still had money to play with. It purchased the Peroni Brewery, the largest Italian brewery. That is its first beachhead in Western Europe. It is now one of the main players in Eastern Europe, from Poland to Russia to Romania. Reportedly, the company is still looking for acquisitions, according to CEO Graham Mackay in SABMiller's annual report, 'expanding through acquisitions remained one of the group's four central elements of its strategy to grow shareholder value.' According to an article, he said SABMiller continues 'to believe in the further consolidation of the global beer market due to economic development, converging consumer taste and lowering of trade barriers. ' The annual report states: 'Currently the four leading brewers account for around only 33% of the global market, compared to between 50% and 80% for other consumer sectors. Companies with a global footprint will benefit from the economies of scale that consolidation will bring and will, we believe, deliver greater shareholder value in the medium to longer term.' In other words, there is a fast concentration in the industry, and SABMiller needs to swallow or get swallowed. Although the company is fighting to buy breweries with rivals like Heineken, Diageo, and Interbrew, and it's locked into a major market competition with Anheuser Busch in North America. These competitions are definitely 'friendly rivalries.' For example, SABMiller sells Guinness and Kilkenny (Diageo) in Hungary, Budweiser (Anheuser Busch) in Italy, Amstel (Heineken) in South Africa. These dominant companies have set up their own territories (Heineken sells Interbrew brands in Italy, for example). They can be oriented toward picking up share by buying or ruining local breweries and by growing beer consumption in undersold markets, so it's not worth the effort to compete full-bore against each other. SABMiller has deep pockets and a drive to acquire. It's non-beer properties (now just hotels and soft drinks in Africa) take a back seat. The Chinese beer market has the potential to be the world's biggest, and SABMiller is strategically positioned.

Subject: Krugman: A Pig in a Jacket From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 07:15:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ October 7, 2005 Krugman: A Pig in a Jacket Paul Krugman takes a look at the administration's sudden support of energy conservation. He starts by recalling Dick Cheney's rejection of energy conservation during the California energy crisis and notes the recent about face by energy secretary Samuel Bodman on this issue: A Pig in a Jacket, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...[T]his week Samuel Bodman, the energy secretary ... declared that 'the main thing that U.S. citizens can do is conserve.' Is the Bush administration going green? No, not really. Then why the sudden switch to encourage conservation? The background to Mr. Bodman's remarks is growing public anger over ... the price of gasoline, but the worst is yet to come: just wait until people see their winter heating bills, especially for natural gas ... the political danger to the administration is obvious: polls suggest that many people blame... administration for failing to control price gouging. Krugman notes that during the California crisis, hardly anyone would believe prices were manipulated, though later it was confirmed that they were, whereas this time it is widely believed that prices are being manipulated when there is no evidence of that happening: Now, much of the public believes that corporate evildoers with close ties to the administration are conspiring to drive prices up. But this time they aren't, at least so far. Paul Krugman defending energy companies? Wow! Just in case you think I've gone soft on the energy industry, let me say that claims that we're having a crisis because environmentalists wouldn't let oil companies do their job are equally bogus... the current crisis is nobody's fault, except Mother Nature's. Krugman notes that until recently, energy companies weren't interested in building refineries because there was no expected profit in doing so, not because of environmental regulations. With respect to the current crisis, when the supply of a product like energy falls, we need to find a way to reduce demand from its previous levels. Krugman calls this 'demand destruction' and notes it is needed to bring demand in line with the reduced supply. But how is this accomplished? In the absence of an effective conservation policy, prices will do all the persuading: the cost of fuel will rise until people drive less and turn down their thermostats. The problem, of course, is that high prices will impose serious hardship on many families. And that hardship could mean political trouble, hence the sudden shift to push conservation. But, says Krugman, [A]s you might expect, the administration's conservation push lacks conviction.... the administration's attempt to promote 'Energy Hog,' a cartoon pig in a leather jacket, as a conservation mascot verges on the pathetic. So it's going to be a long, cold winter... The short-run is looking chilly and expensive. What about the longer run? The long-term case for energy conservation doesn't have much to do with the current shortages. Instead, it's about national security, broadly defined - reduced dependence on Middle East oil supplies, reduced emission of greenhouse gases. National security? Those are magic words. Will that get the job done? No such luck: when it comes to substantive actions, as opposed to public relations, it's still the same old, same old. Mr. Bush has ... said nothing about raising mileage requirements and efficiency standards for appliances. And as for a higher gasoline tax, which would be politically possible only with broad bipartisan backing - don't be silly. Conservation's day will come. But it hasn't happened yet.

Subject: Anybody needing some fresh air? From: Pancho Villa alias El Gato Pardo To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 05:56:59 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4947769

Subject: PAUL KRUGMAN n.y.t From: yigal laviv To: All Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 03:37:38 (EDT) Email Address: yigallaviv@bezeqint.net Message: is krugman n.y.t culomns sindicating in other english newspaper?not in the US.

Subject: Krugman: Miserable by Design From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 20:02:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ Krugman: Miserable by Design Paul Krugman looks at federal aid to victims of Hurricane Katrina and addresses failure in health care and housing arising from the dual problems of incompetence and politics: Miserable by Design, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...Start with health care, where conservative senators, generally believed to be acting on behalf of the White House, have blocked bipartisan legislation that would provide all low-income victims of Katrina with health coverage under Medicaid... According to Krugman, the worry over extending Medicaid benefits to all poor victims of the Hurricane is political. If Medicaid is expanded it will create a precedent that will open the doors for future claims of similar need, something the White House does not want to occur, and it may also lead to discussions of national health care which the administration wants to avoid: In a letter urging Senate leaders to reject the bill, Mike Leavitt, the secretary of Health and Human Services, warned that it would create 'a new Medicaid entitlement.' People with medical needs will need to be treated somewhere and the effect of this policy is to shift the costs to the states: ...surveys show that many destitute survivors of Katrina are being denied Medicaid, and some are going without medicines they need. Local hospitals and doctors will often treat Katrina victims even if they can't pay. But this means that communities that have welcomed Katrina refugees will, in effect, be financially punished for their generosity... Krugman next discusses housing. After noting that both conservatives and liberals are in wide agreement that housing vouchers are superior to housing projects (here's my support), he notes: ...But the administration has chosen, instead, to focus its efforts on the creation of public housing in the form of trailer parks, which ... will almost surely be more expensive than a voucher program and may create long-term refugee ghettoes. Even Newt Gingrich calls this 'extraordinarily bad policy' that 'violates every conservative principle.' So why is the administration abandoning long-held conservative principles? Why trailer parks? Why is medical care for victims of Hurricane Katrina being delayed or denied, something even many in the GOP such as senator Grassley do not favor (see GOP resists Grassley's more caring plan for aid from The Des Moines Register). How can we understand the administration's post-Katrina policy? Krugman explains: ...President Bush['s] ... mission ... is to dismantle or at least shrink the federal social safety net ... Mr. Bush can't avoid helping Katrina's victims, but he doesn't want to legitimize institutions that help the needy ... As a result, his administration refuses to use those institutions, even when they are the best way to provide victims with aid. More generally, the administration is trying to treat Katrina's victims as harshly as the political realities allow, so as not to create a precedent for other aid efforts. As the misery of the hurricane's survivors goes on, remember this: to a large extent, they are miserable by design.

Subject: Re: Krugman: Miserable by Design From: wogie1 To: Terri Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 21:16:35 (EDT) Email Address: wogelston@att.net Message: Not a reply. Problem: Can't open the Haloscan comments to Krugman columns. What should I do?

Subject: South Africa to Take Farm From a White From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 19:06:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/27/international/africa/27africa.html?ex=1285473600&en=af1a7ac268fae8cc&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 27, 2005 South Africa to Take Farm From a White By MICHAEL WINES JOHANNESBURG - South Africa is planning for the first time to expropriate a white-owned farm and transfer the land to black owners, a move that some experts here say may herald a new, aggressive effort to revive a moribund land redistribution program. The government Commission on Restitution of Land Rights said late last week that it intended to serve notice on the white owner of two farms totaling 1,235 acres near Delareyville, about 160 miles west of Johannesburg, after two and a half years of negotiations to buy the farm ended in an impasse. More than 400 black families who claim the farms say their ancestors were illegally evicted from the land from 1918 to 1945. The owner, Hannes Visser, said Monday in a telephone interview that property records refuted that claim and that the government's offer to purchase the land was far below its value. Regardless of who is right, the case has political and social implications far beyond its legal importance. Zimbabwe has been confiscating whites' farmland without compensation since 2000, and Namibia began expropriating a handful of white-owned farms 20 months ago under rising pressure from hundreds of thousands of landless blacks. In South Africa, where blacks own just 4 percent of the farmland, a government pledge to raise the share of black ownership to 30 percent by 2014 has foundered, with bureaucratic and financial problems. In rural areas, it is slowly emerging as a serious political issue. Many experts here say the prevailing approach to land redistribution, in which whites sell their farms to the government and the government subsidizes resale to blacks, has failed. In July the nation's deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, said at a national meeting on land distribution that the government was at risk of being exploited by white landowners seeking to reap a profit. President Thabo Mbeki signed legislation in January of last year allowing the government to expropriate land without court approval, providing that landowners were fairly compensated and could contest the process in court. But until Thursday, when the restitution commission announced plans to seize Mr. Visser's farm, that option was more academic than real. The two farms at issue are part of more than 2,500 acres claimed by the black families. Three other farmers who owned the rest of that land have sold their farms to the government for redistribution, said Jeremiah Moropa, who heads a family group that is seeking the farmland. In a telephone interview from Pretoria, Mr. Moropa said his ancestors had been victims of 'a vicious campaign' to drive them off their land, including destruction of crops and livestock and attacks on their homes. But Mr. Visser, who owns the two remaining farms, argued that the claims on his land were invalid. In any case, he said, the price offered him by the government - about $275,000 - is too low for the farm and meat plant he has built there. Mr. Visser said courthouse records showed that the families had not been evicted, but sold their land to the government from 1939 to 1942. 'This is not about restitution,' he said. 'It's about self-enrichment.' On Monday, Ben Cousins, a professor of land and agrarian studies at the University of the Western Cape in Bellville, who focuses on the country's land reform movement, said the expropriation threat appeared to be a limited, 'by the book' move by the government to resolve a long-simmering dispute. But he said it would signal a more intensive effort, in the wake of the July meeting on land distribution, to increase the rate at which white-held lands were transferred to blacks. South Africa, he said, is not Zimbabwe, where wholesale seizures without compensation are the rule and have helped destroyed that nation's economy. 'Changes here aren't going to involve changes in the law,' he said. 'It's more a matter of greater use of the existing mechanism.' In Cape Town, a spokeswoman for Agri S.A., an organization largely representing white farmers, played down the impact of the expropriation announcement. 'I think there's been an overreaction to this in a sense,' said the spokeswoman, Annelize Crosby. While the group considers the reasons for taking Mr. Visser's land to be ill-founded, she said, the group has no objection to expropriating land 'as long as it's done for a good reason and for the right price.'

Subject: HUh? From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 19:54:56 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Your article makes the following quote on the first line, :'South Africa is planning for the first time to expropriate a white-owned farm and transfer the land to black owners,...' 'First time' to expropriate land from whites? wherew the hell did that cfome from? take a look at this article: July 18 2005 at 06:36AM About 62 000 land claims had been settled by June 2005, Agriculture and Land Affairs Minister Thoko Didiza said on Monday. About 17 000 land claims still needed to be settled under the land restitution programme, she told the National Press Club in Pretoria. The claims were either settled financially or through land restitution. Didiza also briefed reporters on the upcoming Land Summit to be held towards the end of the month. The conference would consider a number of issues including the pace of land restitution and the willing-seller, willing-buyer concept. It would also discuss foreign land ownership in South Africa, as well as the financing of the land restitution programme. - Sapa

Subject: Accurate From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 06:57:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The New York Times article is carefully worded and correct. The NYTimes reporting and editing is generally more careful, precise and in depth than reporting from other sources. Land appropriation policy which is tentatively beginning in South Africa and legally structured is different from the settling of open land disputes.

Subject: Which article is in-accurate? From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 09:49:40 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Emma, Your first article states, “..South Africa is planning for the first time to expropriate a white-owned farm and transfer the land to black owners..” Your second article states: '“…About 85 per cent of commercial farmland is white-owned and only three per cent has been handed over to blacks since apartheid's demise….” One of your articles states that this is the first while the other states that 3% has already been given. One has to be inaccurate... which one is it? Considering that land restitution has been in effect since 1994 and over 60,000 claims have been resolve. I'm inclined to believe that over the last 10 years there is a very stong likelyhood that at least one of those farms has been sold and handed over to black people. That would make the NY Times article inaccurate. But I could be wrong.

Subject: Re: Which article is in-accurate? From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 10:25:43 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The New York Times article is accurate.

Subject: You are right... sort of From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Oct 07, 2005 at 11:05:02 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Emma, You are right, but we have a case of 'splitting hairs'. I took great suspicion when I saw conflicting statements between the two articles. According the official internet site 'South African Government Information' (http://www.info.gov.za/aboutsa/agricland.htm) From what I can deduce - expropriation of commercial farming land has been happening, BUT restitution and distribution of the land has not been happening. The expropriated 'commerical farm' land is still in the hands of the 'Development Trust'. This explains why the Government officials are confident that they will meet their quota of 20,000 land restitution claims by the end of this year. They already have the land, now they just need to pass it on in a legal and bona fide way. Here is the statement from the official Government site: Land administration The Department of Agriculture, through the Directorate: Farmer Settlement and Development, controls and administers 673 253 ha of State agricultural land. State agricultural land is divided as follows: * some 581 864 ha of land expropriated by the South African Development Trust * some 91 388 ha of commercial land purchased from insolvent estates and properties transferred by the Department of Public Works in terms of Section 7 of the Disposal Act, 1961 (Act 48 of 1961). The primary goal of the Directorate is the internal administration of State agricultural land, with the aim of farmer settlement and ownership reform.

Subject: Some more info From: Mik To: Mik Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 19:58:16 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: CAPE TOWN All land claims to be settled by year end Posted Tue, 18 Jan 2005 All outstanding land claims would be settled by the end of the year, the Commission on Restitution of Land Rights said on Monday. Chief land claims commissioner Tozi Gwanya said the commission would start soon with its verification campaign, which would appeal to claimants to provide all the necessary documentation needed to ensure they were bona fide claims. 'This verification process is crucial for us to meet our targets. The longer claimants take to provide us with the relevant documentation, the longer it will take to settle claims,' said Gwanya in a statement. While obtaining the relevant documentation was a tedious task, it was dwarfed by other challenges the commission faced, particularly in rural areas. There included the high land cost which was based on market-related values; protracted negotiations with land owners and claimants; community disputes and the role of traditional authorities; a lack of business skills among the successful claimant communities; and the lack of technical and financial support to restitution beneficiaries. Cost of over R4-billion According to Gwanya, the 57—247 claims settled since 1994 cost government more than R4.4-billion. The commission supported all the claimants who opted for land restoration and have spent R300.6-million and R132.5-million on restitution discretionary grants and settlement planning grants respectively. More than R2.3-billion has been spent on financial compensation as a form of restitution and R1.66-billion on the acquisition of land. The total outstanding claims stood at 22 447 of which 13 247 were urban claims and 9200 rural claims.

Subject: strong dollar will change Canada. From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 18:29:21 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Again, We have a very interesting economic view point that is immediately changed into a social of how a positive situation should not go to our heads. Very impressive that Canadians do not see money as the cornerstone of all solutions but rather immediately fear the evil that it creates. Now how to control that beast..... read on by David Wolf Why the strong dollar will change Canada. 2003 was the year of the Canadian dollar. 2004 was, um, also the year of the Canadian dollar. Two factors have dominantly accounted for the loonie's remarkable reversal of fortune, unwinding the bulk of its decade-long depreciation in an economic blink of an eye. For one, people no longer want U.S. dollars--they're tired of financing an overextended economy and the unapologetic policy upon which it's been based, leaving the greenback to plunge against just about everything over the past couple of years. And two, people want more 'stuff'--the insatiable demand for raw materials coming from rapidly developing economies like China has led to surging prices for the commodities with which Canada is richly endowed. Both trends look here to stay, particularly the latter, as whole swaths of the global economy chase higher standards of living. So while talk of parity with the U.S. dollar may be premature, the Canadian dollar looks likely to remain durably strong in the years ahead. 2005 will be the year of the Canadian dollar's (initial) impact. Exporters will struggle to compete, both in foreign markets and here at home, against cheaper imports. Overall economic growth will be pressured, with domestic demand increasingly needing to pick up the slack, in turn motivating the Bank of Canada to maintain a stimulative level of interest rates. Those assets particularly leveraged to rates--such as bonds and real estate--should do well, even after their decent runs of recent years. No such blanket statement can be made for Canadian stocks, where performance will depend on whether the stronger loonie hurts revenues more than it helps costs for a given company (retailers probably yes, industrials probably no), and whether the pricing power exists to offset that revenue pressure (as with resource producers). Opportunities abroad for investors and businesses alike will increasingly be found outside of the previously dominant United States. These shorter-term economic and market impacts are the easy part of the dollar story and, I dare say, even obvious, upon a bit of reflection. Much less obvious--and more interesting--are the longer-term consequences of a durably stronger currency. Just as the Canada of recent years looks very different from the depressed, debt-laden country of the early 1990s, with the weaker Canadian dollar playing a critical role as both cause and consequence of the country's renewal, so the Canada of 2015 may look dramatically different still. The strong loonie and its underpinnings will fundamentally alter the economic, and even political and social landscape. Canadian dollar strength reflects rising valuations of what we have (natural resources) and, perhaps to a lesser extent, what we are (not the United States). How we deal with the consequent surge in national wealth will determine how Canada will be reshaped in the years to come--and whether for better or for worse. Most often in other countries, unfortunately, it has been for worse. So pervasive has been the tendency for resource wealth in particular to wreak havoc on economies and societies that it even has a name: the Paradox of Plenty. The trouble comes in two forms. First, windfall inflows from raw-materials exports push up the exchange rate and in turn decimate other areas of the economy, notably manufacturing. Growth overall suffers as the 'easy money' resource sector crowds out more productive sectors, tending to bring overall economic stagnation and, in the limit, a country's de-industrialization. This is called the Dutch Disease, based on the unfortunate experience of the Netherlands in the 1960s and '70s after the discovery of North Sea gas. Second, and more perniciously, when wealth is increasingly bestowed rather than earned, the friction between winners and losers often comes to dominate--and ultimately tear at--a country's economic, political and social fabric. In Saudi Arabia, the ruling elite reaps the benefits of oil riches via Wahhabi extremist subjugation of the masses. Russia's oligarchs feud with the government over the nation's vast resources, to the detriment of a broader harnessing of those riches. At the extreme are the wars of central Africa among corrupt dictators and rebel groups, vying for control of diamond wealth. All these places have among the richest natural endowments in the world; none appear on the UN's list of 55 'high human development' countries based on per capita income and more general quality of life. Plenty doesn't have to be a paradox, however. Norway provides the key counter-example of a country whose natural resource endowment has been harnessed to promote more general economic vigour. Revenue from Norway's huge oil reserves (only Saudi Arabia and Russia export more crude) is sequestered by the government into a giant Petroleum Fund, providing for citizens' economic stability in the short term and security in the longer term. Norwegians enjoy the second-highest per capita income in the world (behind Luxembourg), and rank No. 1 on the aforementioned UN human development index. Norway's macroeconomic success in harnessing its resource wealth and dealing with the accompanying challenges (such as a strong currency) owes, in essence, to the government's ability, with public support, to see the bigger picture, making policy for long-term sustainability in resisting short-term grab-and-squander. Taking the longer view was helped by Norway's small size, insularity and homogeneity--none of which Canada shares. But it was also due to the strength of the country's institutions, notably the established rule of law and entrenched democracy--both of which Canada does enjoy. How well Canada can adapt to its newfound wealth--learning the lessons of places like Norway, heeding the cautionary tales of other countries, and meeting the challenges unique to our country--will go a long way toward determining not just what kind of economic growth we can produce in the years ahead, but indeed in what kind of society we live. 2005 may end up being pretty easy by comparison. David Wolf is a director and senior economist with RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Subject: Re: strong dollar will change Canada. From: Emma To: Mik Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 06, 2005 at 20:26:46 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Terrific essay!

Subject: Re: strong dollar will change Canada. From: Poyetas To: Mik Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 06, 2005 at 15:34:43 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Beautiful Essay!!!

Subject: Emma - South Africa's Economic Growth From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 18:19:19 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Emma, I cam across the article giving a simple rundown on South Africa's current economic growth and what fuels it. Very interesting that they appear to have exaclty the opposite problem to the USA - low investment into property and the disposable income has increased - a little more investment into fixed assets is needed. None the less - take a look at this article as an interesting comparison. Consumer spending can't pull growth along for ever - exports will have to help The Reserve Bank's September Quarterly Bulletin, released last week, provides a picture of an economy that is powering ahead, led by robust domestic spending. Economists have responded positively to the report, saying the growth momentum that has built up over the past few quarters shows little sign of abating in the medium term. Overall gross domestic production growth accelerated to 4,8% in the second quarter (or 4,5% on a year ago) compared with growth of 3,5% in the first quarter. Most economists see growth topping 4% for the year as a whole. Looking ahead, however, much will depend on consumer behaviour. At some point households - faced with a growing debt burden, declining disposable income growth and the prospect of tighter monetary policy - are going to start feeling financially stretched and will ease up on the spending throttle. When they do, economic growth will slow unless SA is able to shift from growth led by household consumption to growth led by fixed investment, or is able to power up the production side of the economy. Merrill Lynch economist Nazmeera Moolla says consumer spending is increasingly being driven by borrowing. Household debt was up 25% year on year in the second quarter, and the ratio of household debt to disposable income has risen from a low of 49% in the last quarter of 2004 to just under 62%. This is the highest level since the Bank began recording this data in 1969. Though debt servicing costs are low because of low interest rates, borrowing is increasingly being channelled into consumption rather than investments such as mortgages. Several economists have begun to voice growing unease about this. It is also likely to be of concern to the Bank, but Absa senior investment banking economist John Loos says that as SA moves to becoming a low-interest rate country where the Bank behaves like the mild-mannered central banks of other countries with low interest rates, a much higher debt ratio will be sustainable. Loos says that as household debt ratios increase, households will become more sensitive to interest rate changes. 'This would mean the Reserve Bank would need to do less than it has in past years to curb final demand in order to address the underlying inflationary pressure,' he explains. Loos predicts the Bank will be milder in its future conduct of monetary policy, similar to many central banks in developed countries that move rates up and down only 25 basis points at a time and still achieve the desired result. He estimates the next peak in interest rates could be prime of 11%-12%. But this is not to say that SA can continue to rely for its growth on a credit-fuelled consumer spending spree. Economic growth will slow unless fixed investment and exports make a stronger contribution. There are positive signs in the Quarterly Bulletin that this is beginning to happen and that growth is becoming more balanced. In the second quarter, production (GDP) growth of 4,8% was roughly in balance with consumption (gross domestic expenditure) growth of 5%. 'This is a positive trend and hopefully it can continue,' says independent economist Noelani King Conradie. 'SA cannot rely on consumer spending to keep driving economic growth and exports have to come to the party.' In the second quarter, the value of total exports was up 15,2%, with all main categories of exports contributing. The volume of merchandise exports rose by 8,5%, demonstrating the responsiveness of SA's export performance to robust world growth and a weaker rand. (The average rand-dollar exchange rate weakened to R6,39 in the second quarter from R5,99 in the previous quarter.) Exports are likely to remain strong, supported by strong global demand and higher commodity prices. Since export volumes outpaced the growth in imports (which also rose but by a slower 13,4%), the current-account deficit narrowed to 3,4% of GDP from 3,8% in the first quarter. However, with oil imports set to surge and consumer and capital imports set to remain strong, many economists expect the deficit to deteriorate in the second half of the year, possibly to 4% of GDP. Though the Bank remains sanguine about the capital financing of these deficits, Brait economist Colen Garrow feels that the current account is a soft patch in SA's otherwise favourable economic outlook. It is worrying because unless sufficient foreign exchange can be earned to cover the deficit, it will prompt a run of bad economic news, starting with a weakening of the rand. A weaker currency will lead to a resurgence in inflation and an increase in interest rates, which could in turn stall SA's growth momentum. The concern is that the deficit is being financed by short-term portfolio flows. In the second quarter, these flows amounted to about R22bn as foreigners, awash with liquidity, waded into SA's equity and bond markets in the search for investments with high yields. Foreign direct investment remained disappointing at only R3,8bn. (The Barclays/Absa deal will show up in the third quarter.) More encouraging from the point of view of future growth was the robust second-quarter growth in gross fixed capital formation of 5,7%, on top of 10% growth in the first quarter. Garrow notes that SA's return to international acceptance and access to cheaper international capital markets - not to mention three consecutive years of rand strength - have created a thriving environment for key sectors of the economy to upgrade equipment. Government's infrastructural expansion programme is also only just beginning and will underpin fixed capital formation over the medium to long term, keeping domestic spending high and serving to stimulate GDP growth in the years ahead. Despite the positive domestic environment, the economy's performance is still tied to global developments. And though the global environment remains supportive of SA growth, the Bank is showing concern over rising oil prices and is on high alert for any evidence of second-round inflationary pressures. This all but eliminates the chances of any further monetary easing, and the consensus is that rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year.

Subject: Posting of NYTimes columns From: Barbara Monteiro To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 17:56:44 (EDT) Email Address: bam@monteiroandco.com Message: Bobby, Can you at least post the title of the title of the columns, or is that off limits, too? Can you have a click through to TimesSelect, in case foreign press comes to you first?

Subject: Re: Posting of NYTimes columns From: Emma To: Barbara Monteiro Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 19:58:12 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://select.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/opinion/03krugman.html October 3, 2005 Miserable by Design By PAUL KRUGMAN Federal aid to victims of Hurricane Katrina is already faltering on two crucial fronts: health care and housing. Incompetence is part of the problem, but deeper political issues also play a crucial role....

Subject: An Existential Love Affair From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 15:04:37 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/books/05grim.html October 5, 2005 The Value and Complexities of an Existential Love Affair By WILLIAM GRIMES In addition to millions of words, Jean-Paul Sartre and Simone de Beauvoir bestowed upon intellectuals around the world a love story for the ages. They met as ardent young philosophy students in Paris and immediately declared each other soul mates. They pledged undying troth, existentialist-style, which meant that, as self-created and totally free human agents, they would throw off bourgeois bad faith and hypocrisy. Marriage was out. Children too. They would live and love with total transparency, sharing every secret, renouncing jealousy, exposing themselves to judgment and, in conversational marathons, analyzing every last sensation. Hazel Rowley was one of many young intellectuals who, as late as the 1960's, found the example of Sartre and Beauvoir inspiring and liberating. 'Didn't we all want an intellectual partner with whom we could share our work, ideas and slightest thoughts?' she writes in 'Tête-à-Tête,' her sympathetic but clear-eyed history of Sartre and Beauvoir's lifelong partnership. 'Didn't everyone want to write in Paris cafes amid the clatter of coffee cups and the hubbub of voices, and spend their summer in Rome in complicated but apparently harmonious foursomes? Who wanted monogamy when one could have freedom and stability, love affairs and commitment?' Well, you could have it, all right, as long as you did not mind leaving a lot of human wreckage behind. The evidence can be found in Beauvoir's calculatedly frank memoirs and in the many letters between the two published after their deaths. Ms. Rowley rounds out the picture. Sartre preyed ruthlessly on confused young women, with Beauvoir as his all-forgiving enabler. On several occasions, Beauvoir would pursue an affair with one of her infatuated female students (while denying, throughout her life, that she had ever had sex with women) and then pass her lover along to Sartre. Together the two would excitedly dissect these affairs. Sartre, the apostle of transparency, lied shamelessly to his various mistresses, and to Beauvoir too - 'particularly to the Beaver,' he once told an interviewer, using Beauvoir's nickname. In 1979, when he was blind and virtually at death's door, he bragged to a friend of having nine women on the string. The author of 'Being and Nothingness,' as Ms. Rowley renders him, often looks a lot like Hugh Hefner - without the bathrobe, but with a more highly evolved line of patter. Ms. Rowley, who has written biographies of the writers Christina Stead and Richard Wright, manages to recapture the charm and the brilliance of the relationship in its early stages, which makes her story all the more poignant and depressing. Sartre was brilliant, energetic and a captivating talker, smitten with Beauvoir not just as a beautiful woman but as an intellectual equal whose ideas he respected and whose work he encouraged in every way. Beauvoir, for her part, was fearless, generous and passionate, a woman determined to make her own way and write her own rules. 'Theirs was a new kind of relationship, and I had never seen anything like it,' a teaching colleague of Beauvoir's told the author. 'I can't describe what it was like to be present when those two were together. It was so intense that sometimes it made others who saw it sad not to have it.' Those who ventured too close to the flame often got burned, and although Sartre and Beauvoir occasionally wrung their hands, they put aside moral qualms without a great deal of difficulty. Sartre's secretary, Jean Cau, once marveled at Sartre's talent for keeping his mistresses in the dark and asked him how he justified his deception. 'In some cases, you're obliged to resort to a temporary moral code,' Sartre answered. Sartre, a pampered only child and an extreme narcissist, needed women, although not primarily for sex. Homely and acutely self-conscious, he laid siege to them, overcoming resistance with a tidal wave of words, his instrument of power. The sex act was merely a necessary prelude to the postgame analysis with Beauvoir over drinks at a cafe. Once alone, Beauvoir, equally self-involved but more amorous, writhed in jealousy or shed floods of miserable tears. In public, she kept the image of their idealized relationship carefully polished. Two of Sartre's waifs came to grief. Bianca Bienenfeld, one of Beauvoir's infatuated students, suffered a nervous breakdown. Her psychoanalyst, Jacques Lacan, accused Sartre and Beauvoir of establishing a quasi-parental relationship and then, so to speak, breaking the incest taboo by sleeping with her. Evelyne Lanzmann, the sister of the editor and documentary filmmaker Claude Lanzmann, committed suicide at age 36. Ms. Rowley had the full cooperation of Beauvoir's adopted daughter, Sylvie Le Bon de Beauvoir, but none from Sartre's adopted daughter, Arlette Elkaïm-Sartre, who controls the Sartre estate and demanded that the author delete from the book all quotations from the hundreds of unpublished Sartre letters she had been shown. In the North American edition of 'Tête-à-Tête,' published by HarperCollins, Ms. Rowley has relied on brief quotations or paraphrase. In Europe, where copyright restrictions are tighter, the disputed material has been removed entirely. There's plenty left, and Ms. Rowley, for the most part, lets the record speak for itself. She is scrupulously nonjudgmental, and at times the narrative takes on a dry, telegraphic quality - 'The summer passed. They swam in the lake. One afternoon Beauvoir nearly drowned.' - as event succeeds event, and old lovers give way to new ones, so many and so rapidly that, toward the end, the reader feels numbed, bewildered and more than slightly nauseated. Beauvoir and Sartre, so scathing about bourgeois hypocrisy, made it seem rather appealing when compared to their own variety.

Subject: The Closeness of Theater to Dance From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 15:02:34 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/arts/dance/05poor.html?ex=1286164800&en=ba2c49f4d29d018d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 5, 2005 The Closeness of Theater to Dance, and Vice Versa By JOHN ROCKWELL The Wooster Group's characteristically brilliant, ingenious play 'Poor Theater' is built on the concept of 'simulacrum,' wherein the company inhabits the souls and the work of Jerzy Grotowski and William Forsythe, with a nod to Max Ernst. Anyone in search of insights into Mr. Forsythe and his famously ingenious, nervously intense choreography needn't feel compelled to attend. The actor Scott Shepherd's impersonation of Mr. Forsythe seems eerily accurate. But his text is taken largely verbatim from a documentary film and a CD-ROM and public conversations the choreographer has given, notably one with Roslyn Sulcas at the Brooklyn Academy of Music a couple of years ago. Ms. Sulcas, who now writes about dance for The New York Times, is thanked in the program, and there is a character onstage named Roslyn questioning Mr. Forsythe. If your goal is to work your way inside Mr. Forsythe's head, better you should have gone to Brooklyn. Partly that is because the 'Poor Theater' version, which plays at the Performing Garage in SoHo through Oct. 15, has aroused a level of controversy in Forsythe circles, reports Ms. Sulcas, who is writing a book about the choreographer. Some Forsythians worry that the portrayal of him smacks of condescension or parody, and that his nervous speech patterns, flitting like a bug from thought to thought, suggest that he is less articulate than he would like to be perceived. To me, the Wooster Group simulacrum is affectionate, even adorational. (Linking him with Grotowski, for a theater troupe, is a pretty serious attestation of admiration.) In the end, though, 'Poor Theater' is about the Wooster Group more than its putative subjects. Which is fine: the Wooster Group is right up there with them, and who better to provide insights into the group than the group? The relationship between thought and emotion, between layers of ironic meaning and primal passion, between originality and indebtedness to other artists, along with crisscrossing onslaughts from different mediums (sound, film or video, live action) - all are on dazzling display at the Performing Garage. The Wooster Group actors are actors, not dancers. Despite Mr. Shepherd's skill at capturing Mr. Forsythe's manner of thought and speech, he looks workaday dancing his dances, as do Kate Valk and Ari Fliakos and Sheena See. Mr. Fliakos is extraordinary as an earnest, befuddled Polish translator and a howling actor in the company's re-creation - bellowed simultaneously with a film of a Polish Laboratory Theater performance - of Grotowski's 'Akropolis.' In Polish, no less. But he's no Forsythe dancer. What 'Poor Theater' does reveal about dance is its closeness today to theater, even at its most abstract, and few choreographers are more abstract than Mr. Forsythe. In theater, there has been a movement in recent decades away from word-driven narrative. Grotowski was a pioneer of a theater that digs deep into subconsciousness. In their vastly different ways, Lee Strasberg, Robert Wilson, Peter Sellars and Julie Taymor also transcend overt narrative. Theater today - interesting theater, not formulaic Broadway commerciality - is as much about movement and image and multimedia and even song as the actorly articulation of text. Not that words still aren't central to the art, but they've lost their arrogant monopoly. In dance, we live in a time of worldwide reaction against the excesses of pure abstraction. From George Balanchine's leotard-and-cyclorama ballets to the Judson Church Minimalists, abstractionists created emblematic works of the mid-20th century. But everything is a reaction against what preceded it; abstraction certainly was. Today, variations of 'physical theater' are everywhere, using movement for itself but also to tell stories, or at least to intimate emotional subtexts. In that sense an exploration of Mr. Forsythe's way of dancing is a kind of therapeutic exercise for the Wooster Group actors. They may not dance like Forsythe dancers. But in working hard to do so, they have made themselves more complete mover-actors. Mr. Forsythe, in his own words and seen through the enriching veil of the Wooster Group's vision of him, is so full of ideas that they jostle and crowd one another as they pour forth. He believes in physicality, but he thinks restlessly and constantly. He is a choreographer with firm ideas of what he wants, yet he prizes the individuality and improvisatory spontaneity of his dancers. And he is, by the way, still very much at it: the program notes make him sound like a figure of the past, given the demise last year of his Frankfurt Ballet. There is no reference to his constantly touring new troupe, the Forsythe Company, which is largely stocked with Frankfurt dancers. His blend of seemingly opposing attributes makes him akin to Elizabeth LeCompte and the Wooster Group. For all their own intellectuality, the Woosterians tap into dark, primal emotions, too. Grotowski thought; Mr. Forsythe feels. The turbulent, over-the-top emotionality of Grotowski is just as much a tributary into the Wooster Group's turbulent artistic stream as Mr. Forsythe's idea-driven movement. Which is why 'Poor Theater,' in the end, is not about primal theater nor about postmodernist dance but all about one of the finest, richest, most fascinating theater companies of our time.

Subject: Eminent Domain Revisited From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 15:00:34 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/realestate/05domain.html?ex=1286164800&en=9db7fe3e71e7823c&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 5, 2005 Eminent Domain Revisited: A Minnesota Case By TERRY PRISTIN RICHFIELD, Minn. - Few recent Supreme Court opinions have aroused as much public outrage as Kelo v. City of New London, Conn., the June ruling that reaffirmed the use of eminent domain to promote economic development. Critics on both the left and the right politically have said that the Kelo decision potentially endangers every home and business. Bills to limit condemnation powers have been introduced in 31 states, according to the Institute for Justice, a property rights group. Had such a statute been in place in 2000 in Minnesota, however, a single auto dealer might have been able to block Best Buy, the fast-growing national electronics retailer, from building a $160 million corporate headquarters in Richfield, a suburb of 34,000 people that borders Minneapolis. The 1.6-million-square-foot campus, made up of four buildings shaped like ships, was completed in 2003 and currently houses 4,500 employees. City officials say it has given a big boost to an aging community that had been steadily losing population since the 1970's. Though there was loud opposition to the project from employees of the holdout property owner, Walser Auto Sales, and others who feared its effect on traffic, much of the community supported it. After a campaign in which redevelopment was a central issue, the mayor, Martin Kirsch, was re-elected in 2002 by a wide margin. In addition, the owners of the other 82 homes and businesses on the site sold their property without a fight, for what several said was a fair price that included relocation costs. 'The homeowners weren't exactly on our side,' said Bradley J. Gunn, the Walsers' lawyer. With local government officials throughout the nation struggling to defend themselves against the storm of criticism unleashed by the Kelo decision, the International Economic Development Council, a professional group based in Washington, cites the Best Buy headquarters to illustrate why eminent domain is sometimes a crucial tool in combating urban decay and sprawl. Some of the displaced homeowners, including Michael and Cindy Triggs, who said they received $24,000 above their house's market value, agreed that the redevelopment was in the best interests of Richfield. They said it also benefited the metropolitan area by moving thousands of employees from scattered suburban offices to a more central location within reach of bus transportation. 'It would have been a lot easier for Best Buy to deal with one farmer in Lakeville,' said Mr. Triggs, referring to a more distant suburb. To property rights advocates, though, the Best Buy case is a troubling example of municipal overreaching. Mr. Gunn said the courts merely took the city's word that the neighborhood was blighted. 'In too many of these cases, the courts seem to believe they must defer to the very agency whose conduct is at issue,' he said. In response to cases like this one, the Institute for Justice will support bills in the coming session 'to prohibit the taking of property for so-called economic development,' said Lee McGrath, the executive director of the Minneapolis office. That effort will be opposed by the League of Minnesota Cities. Nevertheless, the league will seek to make the condemnation process more transparent and require 'that the government entity has to declare in writing whether the public benefit is more than the private benefit,' he said. In Richfield, officials say they have occasionally resorted to using eminent domain only to help ensure their city's survival. Adjacent to Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport and surrounded by highways, the city is largely made up of small bungalows and ranch homes built in the 1950's. As the officials saw it, the housing supply was too homogeneous, and its shopping districts too dated. In the 1990's, they began an aggressive redevelopment program as they sought to reverse the population decline. Since then, new or redeveloped shopping centers, prime office buildings, condominiums and apartment houses have sprung up in place of obsolete structures. Many of these projects were subsidized through tax increment financing, or TIF, with the city agreeing to forgo a certain amount of the increase in property tax generated by the new developments. In 1998, a local developer proposed turning a site near the juncture of two busy highways, 35W and I-494, into a mixed-use development, replacing many of the modest homes and businesses. Homeowners said that a majority of their neighbors were willing to be bought out. Over the years, the Walsers had expanded their car dealerships, causing friction in their once-tranquil neighborhood. (The Walsers declined to be interviewed.) Some residents had already bought new homes when the developer withdrew, so the subsequent Best Buy proposal came as a relief. 'This whole thing had dragged on for four years,' said Cathy Bergin, who found herself with two mortgages. 'They had worn us down. We were happy to get out of there.' Only the Walsers, who had been offered $9.4 million for their two car dealerships, took the city to court, challenging the condemnation as well as the use of a TIF. Under Minnesota law, a city housing and redevelopment agency can condemn property only to provide housing or eliminate blight. But the definition of blight is broad enough to give public officials a lot of leeway. Testifying at the trial, Bruce Palmborg, the city's community development director, cited the proximity of the auto dealers and the houses as an example of blight. A consultant said the commercial spaces were obsolete. The blight finding was upheld, but city officials were chastised by one appeals court for failing to prove that half the buildings were 'structurally substandard,' a requirement for a TIF district. The case was settled when the Walsers agreed to move the dealerships to nearby Bloomington for an additional $9 million. Real estate brokers and residents say having a Fortune 100 company has been a boon to Richfield. Prices of single-family homes have risen 8 percent in the last year, with the median now at $224,000, according to George Bodnia, a residential broker for Century 21 Luger Realty. Best Buy has been 'substantial for the community,' he said. But critics like Mr. McGrath point out that it will be a long time before Richfield benefits from the higher property tax revenue generated by the complex. Annual revenues have risen to $3.2 million, from $700,000, but under the TIF agreement, Best Buy gets to keep the difference for 25 years. Mr. Palmborg acknowledged that it was hard to put a dollar figure on what Best Buy has meant to Richfield. The company has instituted mentoring and other programs and it also helped pay for a badly needed bridge spanning I-494. At the same time, its employees have been encouraged to spend money within their self-contained campus, which has its own large health club, pharmacy, bank branch, billiard tables, dry cleaner, day care center and restaurant-like cafeteria. But he said the headquarters had proved its worth by permanently changing the town's image and prompting residents to invest in their homes. 'Best Buy is not going to be in a town that's perceived as a loser,' he said.

Subject: Stocks From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 14:35:17 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The international bull market in stocks is very broad and deep. Most major international markets are up 20% for the year in domestic currencies. The Vanguard emerging market stock index is up 23.1% in dollar terms. The weakest domestic market by far is the large cap American market. The driving force seems to be stable to lower interest rates in almost every economy but the American in which the Federal Reserve is indicating there are a number of short term rate increases to come.

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 14:26:25 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 10/4/05 Australia 17.9 Canada 24.0 Denmark 16.0 France 9.8 Germany 6.7 Hong Kong 12.1 Japan 12.2 Netherlands 7.3 Norway 29.3 Sweden 8.4 Switzerland 10.4 UK 7.0

Subject: Index Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 14:23:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 10/4/05 Australia 21.1 Canada 21.4 Denmark 32.5 France 25.1 Germany 21.5 Hong Kong 11.8 Japan 25.0 Netherlands 22.1 Norway 41.2 Sweden 27.1 Switzerland 26.3 UK 16.6

Subject: Circumventing NYT access policy From: liberal To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 09:07:10 (EDT) Email Address: liberal@nospam.invalid Message: Bobbyp, There's an easy way around the NYT access policy --- post *summaries* of Krugman's columns! Copyright cannot legally touch summaries, of course. And fair use dictates that you're allowed a few quotes.

Subject: Re: Circumventing NYT access policy From: stuart munro To: liberal Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 11:39:26 (EDT) Email Address: stuart-munro@clear.net.nz Message: Actually, maybe the best trick would be a denial of service attack on the NYT site. I personally don't mind fishing around a little to find PK columns, but the change is not user-friendly, and could have been better thought out.

Subject: I really do like the website From: Kristen To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 00:12:34 (EDT) Email Address: karneson@iastate.edu Message: I truly find the textbook website helpful so that is why I have been so frustrated with the fact that the self-tests do not run so well. That is all, the website is very good, everyone should visit it!

Subject: Textbook website does not work From: Kristen To: All Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 00:03:42 (EDT) Email Address: karneson@iastate.edu Message: I believe you need to work on your website because it hardly ever works for me. I have tried pulling up the practice self-tests on several occasions on different computers. Please do something about this.

Subject: Deep words from Krugman From: Mik To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 13:47:57 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Okay so I have bashed Krugman for his political statements, but the last sentence in his latest article is truly impressive:, ' As the misery of the hurricane's survivors goes on, remember this: to a large extent, they are miserable by design.'

Subject: Home Builders' Stock Sales From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 12:20:07 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html?ex=1286078400&en=7d2a34f061a179c9&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 4, 2005 Home Builders' Stock Sales: Diversifying or Bailing Out? By JULIE CRESWELL Home builders have never had it so good. Low interest rates and creative financing have caused a frenetic pace of new-home construction across the country. Builders are reporting blistering earnings and their shares are trading at or near record highs. Now they are cashing in. Executives and directors at many of the nation's largest development companies sold stock at a record pace this summer. Insiders at the 10 largest home builders by market value, including D. R. Horton, KB Home, Toll Brothers and M.D.C. Holdings, have sold nearly 11 million shares, worth $952 million, so far this year. That is a huge jump from the 6.8 million shares, worth $658 million, that insiders sold during all of last year, according to data compiled by Thomson Financial. Market specialists often view heavy stock sales by corporate insiders as a possible indicator that share prices are headed lower. Some analysts say that the share sales by home builders are reminiscent of the heavy dumping of stock by technology company executives just before the technology bubble burst in 2000. For that reason, the staggering level of insider sales has analysts and investors wondering if home builders see something menacing on the horizon, like a cooling of the real estate market. Home builders say the stock sales are not a signal that they believe the property boom is waning. Instead, most executives said that they were selling because they needed to diversify their personal wealth. Some outsiders are not so sure. 'The previous times we've had insider selling that was that high, it was followed by a 20 percent decline in the index of home builder stocks,' said Mark A. LoPresti, senior quantitative analyst with Thomson Financial. Since its July 28 peak, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Housing Sector Index, an index of 21 home building stocks, has dipped 10 percent. Among those cashing in some chips is Zvi Barzilay, the president and chief operating officer of Toll Brothers, based in Horsham, Pa. He sold 460,400 shares worth more than $39 million, the bulk of it in June and July. That was more than four times the 150,000 shares, worth nearly $8.7 million, that Mr. Barzilay sold last year. Likewise, David D. Mandarich, the president and chief operating officer of M.D.C. Holdings, sold 285,499 shares, worth nearly $25 million, in three days in July, compared with the 192,115 shares, worth $13.8 million, he sold in all of 2004. M.D.C. Holdings is based in Denver. Not all executives are taking profits at the same rate. Stock sales at Pulte Homes and NVR, the nation's second-largest and seventh-largest home building companies, are down from last year's levels. Still, Dwight C. Schar, the chairman of NVR, who sold $155 million worth of stock last year, tops the list of insider sales so far this year. In eight days in May, Mr. Schar sold $88.4 million worth of stock in NVR, based in Reston, Va. Mr. Schar's fortunes have changed significantly from 1992, when NVR was forced to file for bankruptcy protection. Last year, he drew a lot attention when he purchased a seven-bedroom, 18-bathroom oceanfront house in Palm Beach, Fla., called Casa Apava, and an adjacent property for a reported $70 million. The seller was Ronald O. Perelman, the Revlon chairman. Mr. Schar, 63, who would not comment for this article, also owns a stake in the Washington Redskins football team and runs with Washington's political elite as the Republican National Committee finance chairman. President Bush often singles him out in speeches to thank him for his fund-raising prowess. The heavy stock sales are occurring at a time when housing-related data remain decidedly mixed, confusing home buyers and sellers alike. While recent data showed that sales of existing homes were near record highs, another government report last week said the supply of unsold homes in August rose to its highest level in five years, and some analysts said that could begin to put pressure on home prices. The Commerce Department also reported that sales of new single-family homes fell 9.9 percent in August, dropping nearly 18 percent in the western United States, including Southern California, Phoenix and Las Vegas, where new-home markets have been particularly hot. Furthermore, a survey of home builder optimism taken in early September fell to its lowest level in two years. 'If you watch the C.E.O.'s of the big home building companies on CNBC, the word is, 'onward and upward,' ' said David F. Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. 'But a number of forecasters, including myself, keep insisting that the market is going to lose some momentum next year.' Home builders denied that heavy insider sales were a sign that they had lost confidence. 'We're still anticipating record earnings for 2005 and 2006,' said Paris G. Reece III, the chief financial officer of M.D.C. Holdings; he has sold more than $11 million in stock this year, double what he sold last year. Mr. Reece attributed his own stock sales - as well as those of Mr. Mandarich and other M.D.C. executives - to options that were expiring in November. In total, insiders at M.D.C. have sold $71 million in stock, up from $48 million last year. The Ryland Group said the sales of 260,000 shares worth $17.7 million sold by its chief executive, R. Chad Dreier, took place on a predetermined schedule that has existed for the last five years. Executives at Hovnanian Enterprises, the Lennar Corporation and elsewhere said they were merely diversifying their portfolios after the huge surge in the market value of their shares in recent years tied more and more of their personal wealth to the company. 'The stock sales have nothing to do with the state of the market. It has everything to do with diversification,' said Joel H. Rassman, the chief financial officer of Toll Brothers, who has sold 105,000 shares worth $8.1 million. That is almost double the 60,600 shares he sold last year for about $4 million. In fact, insiders at Toll Brothers, which announced in September that it would sponsor live radio broadcasts of the New York Metropolitan Opera, have been among the most active sellers of stock this year. They have sold nearly six million shares, worth more than $468 million, so far in 2005. That is three times the number of shares that netted Toll insiders $158 million last year. Robert I. Toll, the chief executive of Toll Brothers and an avid art collector, has sold for some $20 million about 200,000 shares that he held directly, up from 120,000 shares last year that were worth $7.7 million. (Mr. Toll has also sold another $244 million in stock this year that he held indirectly for charitable foundations and in trusts for his five children.) 'Even after all of the sales that have taken place, Bob Toll still owns about $1.2 billion, plus or minus, in company stock and options,' Mr. Rassman said. 'Any investment adviser would tell Bob Toll that he should be diversifying to an even greater extent than he is.' Likewise, the $28 million in stock sales in July by Jeffrey T. Mezger, the chief operating officer of KB Home, is the first stock sale in the 12 years he has been with the company, KB Home said in a statement. The 'vast majority of his net worth' is still invested in the company's stock, the company said. 'KBH stock has appreciated 600 percent over the past five years, and it is widely considered a prudent investment strategy to diversify one's net worth,' it added. Furthermore, KB Home, based in Los Angeles, noted that it recently reported record earnings and that it had raised earnings guidance for every year through 2008. 'With a current sales backlog of over $7 billion, the company's outlook is extremely positive,' the statement concluded. But if the market is so great and if, as most home builders argue, their stocks are undervalued, why are executives selling now? asked Richard Bernstein, chief United States strategist at Merrill Lynch. Mr. Bernstein issued a report in late August saying that insider sales at home builders mimicked what happened in the technology sector before those stocks peaked in 2000. 'People say these companies are closely held and that the executives are trying to diversify, but why now?' asked Mr. Bernstein, adding that similar sales levels were not apparent in other top-performing industries this year. 'They could have diversified their holdings 2, 5 or even 10 years ago.' Home builders respond by saying that the need to diversify took on a greater sense of urgency after the huge leaps in their stock prices in the last year. 'Our stock price has essentially doubled since a year ago, from $23 to around $44' on a split-adjusted basis, said Mr. Rassman of Toll Brothers. 'Like other home building companies, we highly compensate our employees and senior employees with stock. As the stocks have done well, they have become a larger and larger percentage of our wealth.' Another reason for the sales may be that after living through the last boom-and-bust housing cycle a decade ago, few home building executives want to return to the days when they watched their fortunes quickly disappear, analysts said. In the early 1990's, most home builders were on the verge of collapse as interest rates rose sharply and some of their business practices, like building homes on a speculative basis, hoping buyers would emerge, left them with plenty of homes that they could not sell. Home builders who survived the last housing cycle insist they have learned their lessons and that even if a slowdown occurs, they will not be hurt as much. For instance, many home builders today hold options to buy land rather than own the land outright. Also, most will not start to lay the foundation of a home until they have a signed contract. Just as they may have tried to insulate their businesses from any real estate downturns, many executives could simply be trying to protect their personal wealth as well by selling some stock, analysts said. 'These are record times for the industry, and there's not much chance it's going to get a whole lot better,' said Gregory E. Gieber, a home builder analyst with A. G. Edwards. 'These guys know that the good times don't last forever, and they've been out there in the cold before.'

Subject: Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 12:01:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/realestate/04reals.html?ex=1286078400&en=bc02d363f8f48191&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 4, 2005 Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets By DAVID LEONHARDT and MOTOKO RICH A real estate slowdown that began in a handful of cities this summer has spread to almost every hot housing market in the country, including New York. More sellers are putting their homes on the market, houses are selling less quickly and prices are no longer increasing as rapidly as they were in the spring, according to local data and interviews with brokers. In Manhattan, the average sales price fell almost 13 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, according to a widely followed report to be released today by Miller Samuel, an appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman, a real estate firm. The amount of time it took to sell a home was also up 30.4 percent over the same period. In another sign that the housing market might have reached a peak, executives at big home builders have sold almost $1 billion worth of company stock this year. [Page C1.] Outside Washington, in Fairfax County, Va., the number of homes on the market in August rose nearly 50 percent from August 2004. In the Boston suburb of Brookline, Mass., where many three-bedroom houses cost $1 million or more, the inventory of homes for sale has increased in just the last few weeks, said Chobee Hoy, a broker there. For-sale listings have also swelled throughout California, according to the California Association of Realtors. In the San Francisco Bay area, they have increased 16 percent in the last year, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage said. 'We are seeing a market in transition,' Leslie Appleton-Young, the association's chief economist, said. Brokers said that some houses seemed to be on the market longer because sellers priced them too high, assuming that their value was still rising sharply. In other cases, people who otherwise would have waited a year or two to sell their homes - like empty nesters ready to move into smaller quarters - had listed them now out of fear that prices would soon fall. The question remains whether all of this represents a momentary cooling off of some overheated housing markets, or it presages a more pronounced downturn that would end a decade-long boom. Some economists and commentators have for years predicted the bursting of a real estate bubble, and previous slowdowns have turned out to be relatively brief pauses before prices started accelerating again. But with mortgage rates now rising, the cost of gasoline hovering at or near $3 a gallon and house prices in some areas out of reach for many families, brokers and analysts said they thought that this slowdown could be the real thing. For now, the change remains a far cry from the bursting bubble that some have predicted. In Massachusetts, for example, the median house price remained flat from July to August, and the median condominium price fell only slightly, according to the Realtors' association there. At the start of the year, prices had been rising at an annual rate of more than 15 percent. If anything, some brokers said, the recent slowdown meant a return to a healthier, more sustainable market. 'What we had was abnormal,' said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman. 'People get used to abnormal times and then when they're normal, they think there's something wrong.' Alexander Shakhov, 47, listed his two-bedroom house in Frederick, Md., an outer suburb of Washington, for $529,000 in July, and it remained unsold for the rest of the summer. A month ago, he reduced the price to $499,000 at the suggestion of a broker. A week ago, Mr. Shakhov accepted an offer at the lower price. The market 'is not as hot as the last two years,' Mr. Shakhov, a scientist at a biotechnology company, said, 'but I'm pretty happy.' He bought the house three years ago for $230,000. He now lives in Cleveland, where he has bought a home that is nearly twice as large as his Frederick house for less money. The cooling off has forced both sellers and real estate agents to begin changing their attitudes about residential property, many said. Houses that are priced too high are sometimes on the market for weeks or months now, rather than fetching even more money than their owners had imagined they could get. In Manhattan, the average sales price of co-op and condominium apartments fell 12.7 percent, to $1.15 million, in the three months that ended on Sept. 30 compared with the second quarter, according to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report. The median sales price - which means half of homes sold for more and half for less - fell 3.2 percent, to $750,000. Still, the average sales price was 10 percent higher this summer than it was a year earlier, according to the study. Nationally, housing prices rose at the fastest rates since 1979 in the 12 months through August, the National Association of Realtors said last week. But the changes that real estate agents have seen in recent weeks - increased inventories and longer sales times - have often preceded market slowdowns in the past. One reason properties are remaining on the market longer is that sellers still expect to reap double-digit price appreciation each year. 'What will slow this market down, and has slowed certain segments of the market down, is overpricing,' said Pamela Liebman, chief executive of the Corcoran Group, a large real estate firm in New York. 'Back in the spring, there was such a frenzy that very pedestrian product was drawing multiple bids.' Some of today's sellers appear to be pricing their homes as if the frenzy were continuing. 'Their neighbors sold their house when the market was red-hot, and everybody thinks their house is better than their neighbor's house,' said Maggie Tomkiewicz, the president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors and a broker in South Dartmouth. 'But when the neighbor sold, there may not have been five other houses on the market' in the area. The slowdown has also jolted the thousands of people who have become licensed brokers in the last few years. Until now, many of them knew only galloping price appreciation. 'I've gotten these calls from newer agents saying: 'I've had this property on the market for 60 to 90 days. What do I do?'' related Buzz Mackintosh, an owner of Mackintosh Realtors in Frederick, who has been selling houses for two decades. 'And I say, 'It's called, 'Reduce your price.' ' Indications of a slowdown have appeared before. Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said the last time that average and median sales prices dropped below those the previous quarter at the same time that inventories and sales duration rose in Manhattan was in the fourth quarter of 2002. But by the end of 2003, the market had come back. An important difference now, though, is that mortgage rates are creeping up, whereas previous comebacks have been fueled by ever-lower rates. On five-year adjustable-rate mortgages - a popular loan with a fixed interest rate for the first five years - the initial rate has risen to 5.59 percent on average, from 5.14 percent in June, according to BankRate.com. What is more, some mortgage lenders have started to tighten credit standards, making it harder for buyers to get loans. 'Low interest rates and easy credit standards are just about over,' said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Subject: Bacterium Tied to Stomach Ailments From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 11:25:59 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/science/04nobe.html?ex=1286078400&en=dd535ee9fc7fdc43&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 4, 2005 Two Win Nobel Prize for Discovering Bacterium Tied to Stomach Ailments By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN Two Australian scientists who upset medical dogma by discovering a bacterium that causes stomach inflammation, ulcers and cancer won the 2005 Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine yesterday. The winners were Dr. Barry J. Marshall, 54, a gastroenterologist from the University of Western Australia in Nedlands, and Dr. J. Robin Warren, 68, a retired pathologist from the Royal Perth Hospital. The findings by the Australians in the early 1980's went so against medical thinking, which held that psychological stress caused stomach and duodenal ulcers, that it took many more years for an entrenched medical profession to accept it. In its citation, the Nobel committee from the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm said that Dr. Marshall and Dr. Warren 'made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori' causes ulcers and other diseases. 'It is now firmly established that H. pylori causes more than 90 percent of duodenal ulcers and up to 80 percent of gastric ulcers,' the Nobel committee said. In the wake of the ulcer discovery, many scientists have been seeking unknown infectious agents as the cause of many chronic diseases. Examples include microbes that might produce atherosclerosis, the underlying basis of coronary artery disease; ulcerative colitis; regional enteritis (Crohn's disease); and rheumatoid arthritis. A famous experiment Dr. Marshall conducted on himself was crucial in linking the bacterium to inflammation of the stomach, or gastritis, and showing that it resulted from an infection. When the two began their research, doctors could heal ulcers with drugs that blocked the production of gastric acid, believing stomach acid caused ulcers. But the ulcers often relapsed because the bacteria remained to perpetuate the inflammation that leads to ulcers and to certain cancers. Ulcers at that time were often a chronic, debilitating disease that required major surgery and that could cause life-threatening complications from bleeding. Also, they would often erode through the stomach and lead to peritonitis. After Dr. Marshall and Dr. Warren discovered the role of the spiral-shaped H. pylori bacterium, they and others conducted trials showing that antibiotics and drugs inhibiting the production of stomach acid could cure gastritis and most stomach and duodenal ulcers. The inflammation produced by H. pylori can also lead to certain stomach cancers that seem to be prevented by antibiotic treatment of the bacterium. In the early 1900's, stomach cancer was a leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States. But its incidence fell significantly, for unknown reasons, before the discovery of H. pylori's role. Stomach cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. H. pylori is also an important player in a type of lymphoma cancer of the stomach known as MALT, for mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue. Such lymphomas usually regress when antibiotics rid the stomach of H. pylori. Since the late 1800's, many doctors had noted the bacterium's presence in the stomachs of patients with ulcers and gastritis, but they ignored the connection. In the early 1980's, Dr. Warren noted the bacterium in the lower part of the stomach in about half of the patients who had biopsies. He made a crucial observation that signs of inflammation were always present in the surface lining of the stomach near where he observed the bacterium. Dr. Marshall joined Dr. Warren in studying biopsies from a series of patients. After several attempts, Dr. Marshall succeeded in growing a bacterium that was unknown then; he named it Campylobacter pyloridis, believing that it was a member of the Campylobacter family. (It was later found to be a member of the Helicobacter family and renamed H. pylori.) Still, many doctors were unconvinced by the findings, a point recognized by the Nobel committee, which said the award went to Dr. Marshall and Dr. Warren 'who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas.' Dr. Marshall carried on a medical tradition in experimenting on himself to test his and Dr. Warren's theory and to show that Helicobacter was the primary cause of gastritis, not a secondary invader. In earlier interviews, Dr. Marshall described how at age 32, he swallowed a gastroscope tube to allow another doctor to look at his stomach and take several biopsies. These procedures and examinations were needed to document that Dr. Marshall had no H. pylori in his stomach and did not suffer from gastritis or another abnormality. Dr. Marshall waited 10 days for the areas that had been biopsied to heal and then swallowed a pure culture of H. pylori. A week later, he had an unusual sensation of fullness after eating supper and felt ill. Friends told him that his breath was 'putrid.' Ten days after the onset of symptoms, Dr. Marshall underwent the first of an additional three gastroscopies. Biopsies obtained through them showed that he had developed gastritis or inflammation of the stomach, but he did not continue the experiment long enough to develop an ulcer. His symptoms quickly disappeared after treatment. Dr. Marshall said that working in a 'weird' and academically obscure location aided in the discovery because he and Dr. Warren could pursue their observations without interference from the prevailing beliefs. 'If I had come up through the normal gastroenterology training schemes in the United States, I would have been so indoctrinated on the acid theory that I wouldn't have been considering anything else and might have skipped over Helicobacter, as everyone else had done,' Dr. Marshall said in a telephone interview yesterday. He continued: 'Robin is quite obsessional. Once he sees something, he's determined to see what it is. He would have found another Barry Marshall' to work with. Dr. Marshall said that information he obtained from the National Library of Medicine, a part of the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., aided his discovery. While in training, Dr. Marshall worked in a hospital in Port Hedland, in the Australian outback about 1,000 miles from Perth. A librarian in Perth sent Dr. Marshall bundles of references. He said he 'pulled up a whole lot of literature showing that many patients with ulcers had gastritis that the ulcer experts in the 1980's had forgotten about.' One of those papers was published in 1940 by Dr. A. Stone Freedberg at Harvard. He reported identifying similar bacteria in 40 percent of patients with ulcers and stomach cancer. Then he went on to become a cardiologist, and other scientists said they could not confirm his findings. In 'Helicobacter Pioneers,' a book edited by Dr. Marshall, Dr. Freedberg wrote that in 1990, he searched for his old specimens and laboratory books at Beth Israel Hospital in Boston to check them against Dr. Marshall's new findings. But Dr. Freedberg said someone had discarded them. When Dr. Marshall presented his first paper on the findings, he recalled yesterday, an Australian mentor told him that he was wrong. But Dr. Marshall persisted and showed the critic where he was wrong. Researchers are trying to learn why only a small fraction of people who have H. pylori in their stomachs develop gastritis and ulcers. One possible explanation is that genetic differences among humans influence their susceptibility to stomach disease. Another theory is that differences in strains of H. pylori may determine the bacterium's ability to produce inflammation. Scientists recently discovered that the Mongolian gerbil is an animal model for stomach ulcers, and the Nobel committee said studies on the gerbil could provide more evidence of how H. pylori damages the stomach. Dr. Marshall said that every day he reads material on the Internet that turns up on a Google search of diseases that may be linked to H. pylori. 'There's always something new about H. pylori popping up every week, and I keep an open mind on all the findings,' Dr. Marshall said. Dr. Marshall and Dr. Warren will split the $1.3 million prize to be awarded by the king of Sweden on Dec. 10, the anniversary of the death of Alfred Nobel, the Swedish dynamite inventor who created the prizes in his will.

Subject: Faux News Is Bad News From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 09:56:13 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/opinion/04tue3.html October 4, 2005 Faux News Is Bad News Federal auditors have blistered the Bush administration for secretly concocting favorable news reports about itself by hiring actors to pose as journalists and slipping $240,000 in taxpayer funds to a sell-out conservative polemicist. The government till was also tapped to have political spin doctors track whether the message of President Bush and the Republican Party was being well treated in legitimate news reporting. In its purchase of self-aggrandizing agitprop, the administration plainly violated the law against spreading 'covert propaganda' at public expense, according to the report of the Government Accountability Office. More than that, Bush officials forged a cheesy new low in Washington politicians' endless bazaar of peddling public relations initiatives at taxpayers' expense. The White House order to close down the ersatz news coverage should have been unequivocal once the real news media uncovered the hired fakers. But administration apologists continued to insist only 'legitimate dissemination' of public information was at work in the under-the-table employment of Armstrong Williams, a political talk-show host, to wax breathless over the No Child Left Behind Act. The scheme was so seamy that auditors were unable to document whether Mr. Williams actually delivered all the articles and talk-show hype that his company claimed in quietly billing the government for $186,000 worth of yessiree-Bob 'news.' On Friday, a spokeswoman for the current education secretary, Margaret Spellings, reacted to the report by calling these efforts 'stupid, wrong and ill advised.' We hope she noticed that they were also illegal.

Subject: A paper by J. D. Sachs (Sept.-Oct. 2005) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 04:38:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Bush Inherits the Wind The most shocking statement in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was President George W. Bush’s remark that “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees” that protect New Orleans from flooding. New Orleans is a city mostly below sea level, and must be protected by levees to keep water out. Concern that the levees might break in the midst of a powerful hurricane was widespread among scientists, engineers, and emergency-preparedness experts. Yet Bush apparently did not know of these concerns, even days after the hurricane destroyed the levees and flooded the city. There is a simple fact on display here, one that goes well beyond this particular hurricane, and even this particular president. There is a deep disconnect in American politics between scientific knowledge and political decisions. Bush bears much responsibility for this. He has proven to be one of America’s least knowledgeable presidents when it comes to science – and one of the most ready to turn science into a political issue. In recent months, Bush undermined biological theories of evolution in favor of Christian fundamentalist dogmas. He disdains climate science and public health science when it conflicts with the beliefs – and interests – of his core supporters. Simply put, Bush’s record on science policy is miserable. Climate scientists have warned for years that global warming caused by manmade emissions of greenhouse gases will generate more extreme storms. While there is no scientific way to link a particular hurricane such as Katrina to the long-term trend – in the sense that Katrina might have been bad luck rather than a sign of manmade climate change – the energy of hurricanes throughout the world has been rising markedly. Bush, alas, led an aggressive effort to discredit climate science rather than to respond to its findings. He called for delays in reducing greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, which in turn causes the energy of hurricanes to rise. According to the underlying science that Bush ignores, hurricanes take their energy from the warmth of seawater. That is why hurricanes occur in hot tropical regions, and at the end of the summer months, when the sea surface temperatures are at their annual maximum. Manmade global warming raises not only air temperatures, but sea-surface temperatures as well. Higher sea-surface temperatures translate into more powerful storms in the world’s oceans. Hurricanes are measured according to three dimensions: frequency, intensity, and duration. The frequency of hurricanes has not changed much, if at all. The big changes are in hurricanes’ intensity and duration. Intensity measures a hurricane’s force, which includes wind speeds, and there has been some recorded increase. The biggest change, however, has been in the duration of hurricanes: how many days each hurricane lasts. Duration has risen markedly around the world. The total energy of a hurricane is found by multiplying the intensity of the hurricane by its duration. This, too, has risen sharply, and more is in store as temperatures rise. Scientists and engineers who work on climate change stress that governments need to adopt two main responses. The first, called “mitigation,” means reducing the amount of manmade climate change. This can be done by changing the world’s energy system to limit emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – the main driver of manmade climate change. One option is a shift to non-carbon energy sources, such as renewable energy (solar and wind power) and nuclear energy. Another option is to combine carbon-based energy (coal, oil, and gas) with new technologies that prevent the emission of airborne carbon. The second response to climate change, called “adaptation,” requires that we ready ourselves for the climate change now underway and the increased climate change to come in future years. This means preparing for hurricanes that are more powerful in both intensity and duration. An attentive national government would surely have realized that the Gulf region of the United States is more vulnerable to high-energy hurricanes. Indeed, Hurricane Katrina was the third most intense hurricane ever to make landfall in the US. Such a government would have taken more action to strengthen levees. The Bush administration’s negligence is especially shocking given the remarkable amount of scientific expertise that exists in the US. Somehow, scientists have been pushed aside by political operators. But the US government’s failings are matched in many parts of the world, and certainly in the poorest countries, where scientific expertise is scarce, and where many governments do not have scientific advisory councils to turn to for guidance. Hurricane Katrina is a wakeup call, not only for the US but for the world. We are entering a period when good science is vital for our survival. On a crowded planet with threats to our climate, oceans, forests, food production, and water supply, and with global travel and high population densities increasing the risk of worldwide disease epidemics, we must turn to the best of our scientific and engineering knowledge to find a safe passage. Jeffrey Sachs is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2005. www.project-syndicate.org http://www.project-syndicate.org/print_commentary/sachs103/English

Subject: Reading the Signposts From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 16:31:58 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/02/realestate/02cov.html?ex=1285905600&en=f769904acc4df55e&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 2, 2005 Reading the Signposts By WILLIAM NEUMAN THE Manhattan real estate market can be a bewildering place, with stratospheric prices and a chorus of warnings about speculation and bursting bubbles. No wonder anxious buyers are gasping for breath. But what is the true state of the market here? Is it fueled by speculation? How much do low interest rates increase buying power? How are people able to afford double-digit price increases? Will thousands of new apartments coming on the market bring a glut that spells the beginning of the end? Many of the articles about the state of the market nationally fail to account for patterns in the city, where many residences are not real property, but co-ops whose sale is recorded as stock transfers. There are more questions than answers, but what follows is an attempt to look at New York real estate from varying perspectives. Is Speculation Rampant? Market bubbles, whether in stocks or real estate, are typically characterized by an increase in speculation. So is New York rife with people rolling the dice on real estate riches? An analysis of sales going back to the mid-1980's found little evidence that flipping property is common. The study, done at the request of The New York Times by the appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which tracks both co-ops and condos, found that of 4,339 condo sales in Manhattan last year, 5.9 percent involved apartments that had been bought and resold within 18 months. Since 1997, that number has remained relatively constant, ranging from 5.9 to 7.5 percent annually. Flipping, if it goes on at all, is done almost entirely with condos, because co-op boards favor owner occupants and make the resale process too cumbersome. Figures for co-op sales since the mid-1980's show that 1.3 to 4.9 percent of all transactions each year were for apartments that were held for 18 months or less. But assuming that almost none of the co-ops were sold by speculators, those sales were most likely occurring because of situations like job transfers or changes in income - and the same would apply to many of the quick condo sales. Only a small part of the overall sales, therefore, would be by flippers hoping for quick profits, according to Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel. 'The way I characterize the market flip phenomenon in Manhattan is that it's a non-factor,' Mr. Miller said. 'It's not influencing the way projects are being developed, it's not influencing the way properties are being marketed, it's really incidental to the overall market activity.' That makes Manhattan very different from markets in South Florida or Las Vegas. A study last month by First American Real Estate Solutions, a provider of real estate data, found that 36 percent of all home sales last year in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and 40 percent of sales in Clark County, Nevada, where Las Vegas is located, were for homes sold in less than two years. By comparison, only 7.1 percent of all apartment transactions in Manhattan were for units that sold twice in 24 months, according to Miller Samuel. Real estate brokers and lawyers say that flipping in Manhattan is simply too costly for much of it to be going on. Michael Shvo, a broker who markets new developments, said that taxes, closing costs and broker fees usually mean that a flipper must see at least a 10 percent appreciation before he will begin to profit. How Cheap Is Cheap Money? It is a truism of the current real estate boom that the surging market across the country is driven by low interest rates that allow people to borrow more money, and to buy bigger apartments and houses. But the link between interest rates and real estate prices hasn't always seemed so direct, especially when evaluated over several decades and considering inflation. It is important to consider inflation when talking about mortgage rates, economists say, because it gives a truer picture of the real value of money over time. Inflation eats away at the value of a loan over time, as well as the real cost of monthly mortgage payments, and that helps determine the overall value of a real estate transaction. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage available in the first half of this year was 5.74 percent, according to Freddie Mac, the government-chartered mortgage reseller. Economists at Freddie Mac calculated an inflation-adjusted interest rate of 3.28 percent for the first six months of 2005. That is well below the average inflation-adjusted long term mortgage rate of 4.42 percent since 1963, but it is far from the lowest during that period. In the mid-1970's, for instance, mortgage rates were in the 8 to 9 percent range, but the inflation-adjusted interest rate in 1976 was just 0.25 percent, according to Freddie Mac. The low real rates, though, did not spark a real estate boom. It was not until the following years, when nominal and inflation-adjusted interest rates began to rise, that housing prices followed suit. From 1980 to 1990, the average mortgage rate was consistently above 10 percent. The co-op and condo market in New York peaked in 1987 and bottomed out in the mid-1990's. During most of that time, inflation-adjusted mortgage rates were falling, but they did not seem to put a brake on falling prices. Markus K. Brunnermeier, an assistant professor of economics at Princeton University, said that people should make decisions on whether to buy or rent a house based on the real interest rate, that is, the mortgage rate minus inflation. Instead, they tend to look only at nominal interest rates. Mr. Brunnermeier sees a powerful link between inflation and house price trends. When inflation is high, he says, people often make a basic mistake in their mental accounting when deciding whether it makes more financial sense to rent or buy a home. They tend to ignore the fact that rents will rise steadily with inflation, while, because of the same inflationary effect, the value of their mortgage payment will actually go down in real terms. This makes them think renting is cheaper than it is and tends to draw people away from the housing market, which in turn can help drive down housing prices. When inflation is low, people make the opposite mistake. They fail to understand that, while rents will remain relatively stable, the beneficial effect of inflation on their mortgage payments will be slight. Lured by low nominal interest rates, which track the rise and fall of inflation, people jump into the housing market. Are We Getting More? Have low rates allowed people to get more home for their money? Or have they simply enabled prices to rise so much that home buyers are barely keeping up? To answer that question, it is helpful to look at the case of a single Manhattan apartment that has changed hands several times in recent years. A 760-square-foot one-bedroom apartment at 317 West 95th Street, a condo building, was chosen from recent records filed with the city. The apartment first came on the market in 1988, when it sold for $160,000. It sold again in 1999 for $161,000, and then three times in quick succession, for $260,000 in 2000, for $325,000 in 2003 and for $560,000 last August. The price of the apartment went up over the years, but at the same time interest rates were trending down. For the sake of comparison, suppose that each buyer made a 20 percent down payment and financed the rest with a 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage at the prevailing rate at the time. At the time of the 1999 sale, the average national mortgage rate was 10.32 percent, according to Freddie Mac, and a hypothetical buyer would have paid $1,153 a month. In 2000, the rate was 8.64 percent and the monthly payment would have been $1,620. When the apartment sold in August, rates stood at 5.8 percent, for a $2,628 monthly bill. Even when inflation is taken into account - the 1989 payments are the equivalent of $1,896 in today's dollars - the buyer today has a much lower rate but a heavier debt burden. 'You have to take on a lot more debt to buy a house today,' said Ian Morris, chief economist in the United States for HSBC, who believes real estate is overvalued. 'So even though interest rates are low, your mortgage payments are high.' Is Buying Power Stronger? Everyone knows that apartment prices are going up, but what about incomes? The answer to that depends on how you slice the data. Data from Miller Samuel shows the median price per square foot for all Manhattan apartments reached a high point in 1987, at $305 a square foot for co-ops and $413 a square foot for condos. What that means is that the median price for a 1,000-square-foot co-op was $305,000 - half the co-ops sold in Manhattan cost more than that and half cost less. Prices bottomed out by the mid-1990's, losing about 44 percent of their value in real terms, and then they started to rise again. By 2002, prices had passed their 1987 levels, measured in inflation-adjusted dollars and by the first six months of 2005, the median co-op price was up 37 percent from 1987, while the condo price was 35 percent greater. Averaged across the entire period, the cost of a Manhattan apartment has risen at a rate of about 2 percent a year above inflation. So what happened to the median income in Manhattan during the same period? Census data reveals that median household income growth in Manhattan was strong from 1979 to 1989, increasing 35.8 percent above inflation. But in the 1990's, median income - the point at which half the households earned more and half earned less - barely rose, going up just 8.5 percent in real terms from 1989 to 1999, or 0.85 percent a year. Since then, a similar rate of growth has been documented by the Census Bureau in its annual American Community Survey, which shows a 4.1 percent inflation-adjusted increase in the median income for Manhattan from 2000 through 2004, or 0.82 percent a year. The median household income last year in Manhattan was $50,731, according to the Census Bureau. In other words, since the last peak in the real estate market, Manhattan apartment prices have grown about one and a half times faster than median household income. Manhattan has the greatest income disparity of any county in the country, and the census data shows that while the household income for the bottom 20 percent rose just 7.9 percent from 1989 to 1999, in real terms, the income of the top 20 percent went up 61.5 percent. Reasoning that it is mainly earners at the top end who can afford to buy an apartment in Manhattan, a group of economists argues that, despite the galloping price increases of recent years, real estate on the island has actually become more affordable. The group, Business360, an economic consulting firm, compared the increase in apartment prices per square foot with increases in personal income for Manhattan. While real estate prices rose and fell and rose again, average personal income in Manhattan, reported by the federal government's Bureau of Economic Analysis, rose at a fairly steady pace, increasing 87 percent in real terms since 1981. The figure is very different from the median because it is an average of all earners, and with Manhattan's great income disparity, it is heavily skewed toward the top. Average income has grown faster than average prices, which since 1981 are up 50 percent for co-ops and 37 percent for condos. Because of that, the study concludes, housing is more affordable for the average Manhattanite than it was in the early 1980's or at the peak of the last real estate boom. To show the relationship between rising incomes and prices and falling interest rates, Business360 calculated the number of days it would take for the average household to earn enough money to pay a year's mortgage payments for a 1,000-square-foot condo, at the average mortgage rate and square foot price for each year of the study. In 1987, it took 273 workdays to cover the mortgage, while today, the study concluded, it takes 152 days. The average household income for Manhattan, projected by Woods & Poole Economics, is $185,993. 'People look at the prices - they're stratospheric - and they think that that's a bubble,' said John Marchant, one of the economists who wrote the Business360 study. 'But if they looked at what people are earning in New York, they'd think that's outrageous too.' Ingrid Gould Ellen, the co-director of the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University School of Law, said: 'It really depends on who your target is when you talk about affordability. For the median earner in Manhattan, those apartments are going to be less affordable, but somebody's buying them.' Will There Be a Condo Glut? New buildings with thousands of units, from luxury condos to below-market rentals, are going up all over New York City in the biggest building boom in years. Last year, the city gave out permits for 25,208 new units, according to the Census Bureau. That puts it firmly ahead of the last boom, in the mid-80's, when permits reached a peak of 20,332 permits in 1985. Yale Robbins, a publisher of real estate directories and surveys, said some 19,000 units, mostly condos, will be completed in Manhattan over the next two years. In addition, he said, developers have plans for as many as 27,000 units in the outer boroughs. 'My feeling is it can be absorbed,' he said. But, he added, 'With the amount of supply coming on the market I have a hard time understanding how prices can go up much higher.' So when does a boom become a glut? 'It's possible but nothing I see in the current data even suggests that we're even close to that kind of scenario,' said Shaun Donovan, the commissioner of the Department of Housing Preservation and Development. His agency estimates the city has a shortage of at least 135,000 homes, and probably many more. 'If you go back to the 1980's, the city was for many years losing population,' Mr. Donovan said. 'There was a dramatic decline in population in the 1970's and that's a fundamentally different story than what we're seeing today.' In contrast, the city population grew by about an estimated 900,000 people since 1990, he said. City officials predict another 200,000 newcomers by the end of the decade. The city is promoting the building of below-market-rate housing, but Mr. Donovan said that new construction at all price levels helps alleviate the pressure on the market. 'In my mind,' he said, 'the primary thing that's driving the strength of our market, and the negative effects in terms of affordability that comes with that, is our housing shortage.'

Subject: The Achievement Gap in Elite Schools From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 15:49:34 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/28/nyregion/28education.html?ex=1285560000&en=e4521b45550cae9e&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 28, 2005 The Achievement Gap in Elite Schools By SAMUEL G. FREEDMAN PRINCETON, N.J. AN uneasy amalgam of pride and discontent, Caroline Mitchell sat amid the balloons and beach chairs on the front lawn of Princeton High School, watching the Class of 2004 graduate. Her pride was for the seniors' average SAT score of 1237, third-highest in the state, and their admission to elite universities like Harvard, Yale and Duke. As president of the high school alumni association and community liaison for the school district, Ms. Mitchell deserved to bask in the tradition of public-education excellence. Discontent, though, was what she felt about Blake, her own son. He was receiving his diploma on this June afternoon only after years of struggle - the failed English class in ninth grade, the science teacher who said he was capable only of C's, the assignment to a remedial 'basic skills' class. Even at that, Ms. Mitchell realized, Blake had fared better than several friends who were nowhere to be seen in the procession of gowns and mortarboards. They were headed instead for summer school. 'I said to myself: 'Oh, no. Please, no,' ' Ms. Mitchell recalled. 'I was so hurt. These were bright kids. This shouldn't have been happening.' It did not escape Ms. Mitchell's perception that her son and most of those faltering classmates were black. They were the evidence of a prosperous, accomplished school district's dirty little secret, a racial achievement gap that has been observed, acknowledged and left uncorrected for decades. Now that pattern just may have to change under the pressure of the federal No Child Left Behind law. Several months after Blake graduated, Princeton High School (and thus the district as a whole) ran afoul of the statute for the first time, based on the lagging scores of African-American students on a standardized English test given to 11th graders. Last month, the school was cited for the second year in a row, this time because 37 percent of black students failed to meet standards in English, and 55 percent of blacks and 40 percent of Hispanics failed in math. One of the standard complaints about No Child Left Behind by its critics in public education is that it punishes urban schools that are chronically underfinanced and already contending with a concentration of poor, nonwhite, bilingual and special-education pupils. Princeton could hardly be more different. It is an Ivy League town with a minority population of slightly more than 10 percent and per-student spending well above the state average. The high school sends 94 percent of its graduates to four-year colleges and offers 29 different Advanced Placement courses. Over all, 98 percent of Princeton High School students exceed the math and English standards required by No Child Left Behind. So is the problem with the district, or is the problem with the law? The answer seems clear to those parents - mostly black, but some white and Hispanic - who have been raising the issue of the achievement gap for years. While the Princeton community includes a slice of black bourgeoisie attached to the university or nearby corporations, most of the African-American population came here a century or more ago to serve as the butlers, maids, cooks and chauffeurs of a university and town with a nearly Southern fondness for segregation. The high school, for instance, did not integrate for nearly 20 years after its founding in 1898, and the elementary schools waited until they were compelled by state law in 1947. As far back as the 1960's, according to the local historical society, black students suffered from 'low expectations from teachers' and a high dropout rate. In the early 1990's, an interracial body calling itself the Robeson Group - in homage to Paul Robeson, the most famous product of black Princeton - mobilized to recruit more black teachers and help elect the first black member to the school board. Despite such efforts, the achievement gap remained. A tracking system for math separates students in middle school. The high school, while not formally tracked, has such a demand for seats in Advanced Placement classes and honors sections that a rigid hierarchy exists in effect. Guidance counselors find their time consumed by writing recommendation letters for seniors who routinely apply to 10 or more high-end schools. And until the No Child Left Behind law was enacted there were no concrete consequences for failing to address the resulting disparity. Which may be why a number of black parents here credit the federal law with forcing attention on the underside of public education in Princeton. It requires all districts to reveal test results and meet performance standards by various subgroups, including race. 'If you scratch the surface of this town, a lot of contradictions are going to emerge,' said Ron Plummer, a project manager for a technology company and a co-chairman of the school district's minority education committee. 'I do have some suspicions when measurements come from standardized tests alone. But if it's going to shine a bright light on the inadequacies of the system, especially as it regards children of color, then I'm all in favor.' In any case, there can be a tone of defensiveness, even smugness, among certain school leaders in Princeton. 'We're proud of our F,' said Lewis Goldstein, the assistant superintendent, referring to the contradiction between the district's overall success and its standing under No Child Left Behind. 'It's as if you handed in your homework and the teacher handed it back and you got a 98 on it and an F. That's the situation we're in.' TO be fair to Princeton, it is hardly the only community to include both a large number of superachieving students and a smaller but persistent number of low-income, nonwhite stragglers. Princeton, in fact, belongs to an organization of 25 similar school districts, the Minority Student Achievement Network, which includes Evanston, Ill.; Shaker Heights, Ohio; and Eugene, Ore., among others, that are working to find techniques to address the issue. Princeton's superintendent, Judith Wilson, has accepted the challenge of reducing the achievement gap. As a newcomer to the district - she arrived last February from the working-class, half-minority district in Woodbury, N.J., near Camden - she sounds less beholden than some of her colleagues to Princeton's exalted sense of itself. 'If the gap can't be narrowed in Princeton,' she said in an interview in her office last week, 'then where can it be narrowed? There can't be a question here of resources, or of community support, or of quality of staff. So if we can't impact the students who are not born into privilege, then where can it happen?'

Subject: My House, My Piggy Bank From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 13:27:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/02/nyregion/nyregionspecial2/02libank.html October 2, 2005 My House, My Piggy Bank By FORD FESSENDEN EDWARD BRIGGS had a good job, but better still, he had credit cards. The job provided the solid middle-class life - a home in Colchester, Conn., two cars in the driveway, food on the table. But the credit cards underwrote dreams. 'In addition to the normal credit-card usage, I used the balance-transfer option to pay for a couple of things here and there, and got carried away with it,' said Mr. Briggs, 56. When the payments started to squeeze him, he realized his predicament and tried to dig himself out. But he still owed about $70,000, he said, when he lost his job three years ago. He found some work consulting, but 'I just didn't have enough money coming in to cover everything,' he said. In July, with his credit-card debts approaching $90,000, he declared bankruptcy. 'We all think everything is going to be fine, and we'll have a little money and can live comfortably, and it didn't work out that way,' said his wife, Karen Briggs, 48. The couple are now also enduring bankruptcy's secondary infection, divorce. 'I feel like I'm going to lose everything,' she said. 'I never thought this could happen to me, not all this. It's just very hard.' While bankruptcy has been on the rise in much of the country, the suburbs of New York have, for the most part, been spared. Now, though, there are signs that the holiday is ending. Elsewhere, bankruptcy has been on a steady upward march since 2000. A surge of spring and summer filings in anticipation of the new, tougher bankruptcy law that takes effect on Oct. 17 could easily push filings in the United States to a record. Hurricane Katrina victims could push the total even higher. In fact, 1 in every 120 people over 18 will go bankrupt this year. In the New York suburbs, though, bankruptcy has been declining, a trend that has seemed every bit as steady. In the last five years rates went down 20 percent in the counties around New York City. But that doesn't mean that all is well in the suburbs. A closer look at the trend in the New York metropolitan area shows that some neighborhoods do not share the region's bankruptcy inoculation. Bankruptcy is high and growing not only in the Bronx, Manhattan and Brooklyn, but also in many areas of the suburbs, among them Mount Vernon and Hempstead in New York, Orange in New Jersey and much of Connecticut. The pattern reflects some of the familiar geography of wealth: bankruptcy is usually higher in poor areas than in rich ones. But it also reflects the special geography of insolvency: it's low in places where the struggling would lose their homes. A review of bankruptcy trends by The New York Times shows that areas in New York and New Jersey with the highest concentration of homeowners have had little or no increase in bankruptcy since 2002. In areas where there are few homeowners, bankruptcy rates have increased sharply; in some places they have doubled. The pattern is consistent with what bankruptcy lawyers and researchers see in their practices and studies: homeowners in the suburbs are taking on more and more home-equity debt to stay out of bankruptcy. 'When you're living in a place with home values up 50 percent, you have what Alan Greenspan calls a piggy bank,' said Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor and an author of 'The Fragile Middle Class' (Yale University Press, 2000), a study of bankruptcy. 'The bubble has operated like wreckage from the Titanic - you could climb on and float along for a while. The question is for how long.' Mr. Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, said last Monday that most homeowners were not yet overextended, but that 'froth' had developed in some local housing markets and in some lending practices. Time ran out for Mr. Briggs after three years of borrowing on credit cards and on his home while he looked for a new job. Authorities say the clock is ticking for thousands of others relying on the paper profits of their homes to sustain them. If the housing market stops rising, they say, the bankruptcy lull in the region could quickly end. Already, a new law that went into effect Aug. 31 in New York State has pushed bankruptcy filings by homeowners up. The law makes it easier to shelter a home from bankruptcy and seems to have contributed to a 30 percent jump in filings in the last three weeks in suburban areas populated largely by homeowners. 'Some people have been spared filing the petitions because they have home equity,' said Andrew Thaler, a bankruptcy trustee on Long Island. 'My guess is when the housing market flattens, people are not going to be able to sustain the lifestyle they've been maintaining, and you'll suddenly see a lot more bankruptcies.' Personal histories unfold daily in drab meeting rooms of federal bankruptcy trustees across the region, where debtors bring their balance sheets to be scrutinized in a public forum for evidence of assets that can be stripped by creditors. Most of the people who appear never had much. For some, there are indications of better days, usually far behind. A retired office manager from Scarsdale, N.Y., who appeared last month before a trustee in White Plains had a monthly disability income of $1,570 and credit-card and medical debts totaling more than $100,000. She had received a $50,000 lawsuit settlement last year, but it barely dented her debts, she said. A young couple from Cortlandt Manor, N.Y., told a woeful tale of lost jobs, a lost home in Florida, a deeply troubled 12-year-old, and a kiting operation that kept all their credit-card payments up to date. 'I had to take money from the Optima card to pay the bill on the MBNA,' the wife said. 'But I always paid.' With $258,685 on more than 60 cards, they finally filed for bankruptcy. At a meeting last month in Central Islip, a Farmingdale couple in their 60's brought paperwork showing $25,000 in income, $55,000 in credit-card debts and no home to borrow against. 'Our rent is skyrocketing, there's no overtime at work, and my husband has been disabled for 20 years,' the wife told the trustee. At another meeting in Newark, a former college hockey player sought to discharge debts from an inventory of cards as long as his arm - $16,000 owed to Chase, $10,000 to Capital One, $16,000 to MBNA America, $700 to Macy's. He owned no home; he handed that over to his wife in a divorce in 2002. 'I once had a good job,' he said, by way of explaining his predicament. Declaring bankruptcy stops legal action by creditors, but it requires debtors to bare their finances at meetings like these. The trustees work for the Justice Department and act as creditors' representatives. One trustee may hear 60 cases in a day, a preliminary step before a federal judge declares the bankruptcy and discharges the debts. The whole process, from filing to discharge, takes four months, on average. But obtaining credit after declaring bankruptcy is far more difficult. There are few homeowners at these meetings; for the most part, anyone who once owned a home has lost it long ago. A woman from Massapequa Park with nothing but Social Security income and $44,000 in credit-card debt said she had sold a home in Stamford, Conn., last year. It was mortgaged beyond its value to pay for a new kitchen, new windows and credit-card bills, and she and her husband had been forced to sell, she told the trustee. They are now divorced. 'Leaving the house that you lived in for 30 years is hard, really hard,' she said. With few exceptions, bankruptcy lawyers in New York and New Jersey say homeowners have disappeared from their practices. 'I've been doing this for 12 years, and I must have filed 10,000 bankruptcies on Long Island and Queens,' said Heath Berger, a bankruptcy lawyer in Woodbury. In the last four years, he estimates that one filer in a thousand owned a house. Mr. and Mrs. Briggs, the Colchester couple, had the good luck to live in Connecticut, so they will lose their credit, but not their house. The state allows a couple to protect $150,000 in home value from liquidation. 'I've never sold a house,' said Barbara Katz, the Briggses' trustee, who worked on bankruptcy cases since 1992. The arithmetic works like this: Because their $269,000 house has $127,000 in mortgages on it, a sale would generate $142,000, less than the $150,000 exemption. The couple would be allowed to keep the entire $142,000, and there would be nothing to give to creditors, Ms. Katz said. In sharp contrast, New Jersey allows only a $37,000 exemption; a law increasing that to $250,000 was conditionally vetoed by Acting Gov. Richard J. Codey but could be passed with modifications later this year. Until Aug. 31, New York allowed just a $20,000 exemption for a couple. (It is now $100,000, but more on that later.) With property values and home equity rising rapidly, virtually all homeowners had more than $20,000 in equity, so homes could be sold to pay off credit-card debt. One result has been a declining trend in bankruptcies in the areas of New York and New Jersey where homeowners predominate, but not in Connecticut. Comparing filings from June, July and August 2005 with those from the same three months in 2002 showed declines in places like Northport on Long Island, Hanover, N.J., and Somers, N.Y., all areas where at least 85 percent of the residents live in homes they own. Most of these areas have also seen large increases in home equity. In Northport, where the average sale price of a house has risen 40 percent in three years, bankruptcy filings dropped to 3 from 6. The trend went the opposite way in areas with more renters. In Mount Vernon, N.Y., bankruptcy filings increased 14 percent. In Jersey City, filings rose to 315 from 244. In Long Beach, one of the few communities on Long Island with a high proportion of rental housing, bankruptcies total 43 during the recent three-month period, compared with 32 in 2002. Bankruptcy lawyers say that this does not mean that homeowners have been more prudent than renters. 'Two or three years ago, mortgage companies were giving money to anyone,' Mr. Berger said. 'They didn't care whether they could afford it, just that they had a house. Now I'm seeing all these people who never had the income to pay these loans in trouble.' Professor Warren of Harvard believes that disaster lurks as homeowners borrow against their homes to forestall bankruptcy. When the stock market tumbled five years ago, people in trouble could sell stocks to stay afloat, she said. But home equity doesn't work the same way. As she put it, 'You can't sell a part of your home like you could a stock in the stock market bubble.' Since Aug. 31, when New York increased its exemption to allow couples to protect $100,000 in home equity, filings were up 30 percent in those areas in which at least 75 percent of the population lives their own homes. Lawyers in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have also begun to report a last-minute deluge of debtors from all of these states who hope to beat the Oct. 17 deadline. That's when the nation's new bankruptcy law takes effect, and it will force some people with higher incomes to repay their debts. 'When a family uses its home like a piggy bank and then a job loss, a divorce or an increase in the adjustable-rate mortgage leaves them unable to make the payments, the family is out of options,' Professor Warren said. 'That's true before and after Oct. 17. Borrowing against a home leaves a family with the fewest possible options when something goes wrong.' 'After Oct. 17, bankruptcy gets harder for everyone - more expensive, more traps, less coverage,' she said. 'And that means more families are set up to lose their homes.'

Subject: Buying Back Shares From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 13:25:28 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/02/business/yourmoney/02buyback.html?ex=1285905600&en=b2ec4cc09c7c3170&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss October 2, 2005 Sending Out a Message by Buying Back Shares By AMY FELDMAN BUYBACKS are back, and portfolio managers are taking notice. Companies have been repurchasing their own shares at record levels, and the trend shows no sign of letting up. In the first half of this year, share buybacks reached $163 billion, according to Standard & Poor's, up 91 percent from the first six months of 2004. Howard Silverblatt, an equity market analyst at S.& P., estimates that they will surpass $300 billion for the year. That would be well above the $197 billion for all of 2004. Companies are splurging on their own shares for a simple reason: they have a lot of cash and need to do something with it. Companies in the S.& P. 500-stock index have cash equal to 7.3 percent of their market value - slightly off the 7.7 percent peak reached earlier this year, which was the highest level since 1988. That pile of cash accounts for not only the increase in stock buybacks, but also for rising dividend payouts and a higher level of activity in mergers and acquisitions. 'Companies have more cash than they know what to do with,' Mr. Silverblatt said. 'The number is just huge, especially in an environment where it is cheap to get money. So companies have plenty of money to do buybacks.' In general, buybacks are good for investors. After all, they represent a vote of confidence by management in the company's stock. And all things being equal, buybacks increase the earnings for each share by decreasing the number of shares held by investors. David L. Ikenberry, a finance professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who studies corporate buybacks, found that the stock price of companies that announced buybacks tended to outperform those that did not. In an unpublished study of 7,725 announced corporate buybacks from 1980 to 2000, Mr. Ikenberry and three other researchers found that investors who held those stocks for four years earned a return that was 15.6 percentage points higher than that of a similar basket of stocks from companies that might or might not have announced repurchases. The results were consistent with a similar study published in the Journal of Financial Economics in October 1995 by Mr. Ikenberry and two other academics that focused on stock buybacks from 1980 to 1990. The study is at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=686567. 'It is a phenomenon that is fairly robust,' Mr. Ikenberry said. 'Companies buy back stock for all kinds of reasons. The biggest one is a perception of mispricing. So these stock buybacks are considered signals that management is confident of where the stock prices should be headed.' Until legislation in 2003 cut the tax rate on qualified dividends to a maximum of 15 percent, there were tax advantages to share buybacks over dividend payouts. With the tax changes, however, dividend payouts - which have also been rising - and share buybacks have become more equal. 'A few years ago, we preferred stock buybacks over dividends because there used to be a tax rate difference,' said Ronald H. Muhlenkamp, manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, which was up 28 percent a year, on average, in the three years through Thursday. 'Today our preference is simply a matter of how high the stock is priced. If the stock is cheaply priced, we would prefer a buyback.' Mr. Muhlenkamp said the question to ask when looking at buybacks was whether the company could get a better return by buying back shares, paying a dividend or expanding its business. 'If they don't have projects that can maintain their return on equity,' Mr. Muhlenkamp said, then the money should be paid to shareholders in a dividend or by repurchasing shares. But not every buyback announcement is significant. Not all companies that say they will buy back shares actually do. And many buybacks - particularly among technology companies - are simply a way of offsetting the dilution that would otherwise accompany the exercise of stock options. 'So many companies are doing buybacks, but they may not all be doing meaningful buybacks in the sense that they are big enough to give the company a reduced share count,' said David R. Fried, president of Fried Asset Management in Pacific Palisades, Calif., and editor of the online newsletter buybackletter.com. That said, more companies are doing meaningful buybacks these days and some in huge quantity. Consider Exxon Mobil, the world's largest energy company. As oil prices have soared, it has accumulated cash, and it has been sharply increasing its share repurchases, up to $5 billion in the third quarter from $3.7 billion in the second quarter. S.& P. data shows that the number of companies that have reduced their outstanding shares by at least 0.5 percent has risen - to 81 companies in the second quarter from 62 in the first quarter, and the moves have started to affect corporate earnings. AND the buyback announcements keep coming, sometimes from companies that have gone through tough times - like Time Warner and Motorola. 'They've had some problems recently, and they're trying to do some signaling to the market,' says Timothy Loughran, a finance professor at the University of Notre Dame. He compared current buybacks to the stock repurchases made after the stock market plunge in October 1987. 'It's been a pretty good signal,' he said. 'And I think it is generally a positive signal for the market as a whole.' If you're interested in investing in companies that have had buybacks, Mr. Fried recommends looking at valuations as well as the size of the buyback programs. Among the stocks he likes are AutoZone, the auto parts retailer, trading at 12 times earnings; Intuit, the maker of Quicken software, trading at a multiple of 22; and Cigna, the insurer, at a multiple of 8. 'We look for situations where you've got the buybacks and the valuations,' he said.

Subject: A Family Confronts Its History From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 11:52:11 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/1990/04/17/theater/reviews/17piano.html?ex=1128484800&en=2e462c0bd9e5cb3e&ei=5070 April 17, 1990 A Family Confronts Its History in August Wilson's 'Piano Lesson' By FRANK RICH The piano is the first thing the audience hears in ''The Piano Lesson,'' the new August Wilson play at the Walter Kerr Theater. Three hours later, it seems as if the music, by turns bubbling and thunderous, has never stopped. Though Mr. Wilson won a Pulitzer Prize last week for this work, no one need worry that he is marching to an establishment beat. ''The Piano Lesson'' is joyously an African-American play: it has its own spacious poetry, its own sharp angle on a nation's history, its own metaphorical idea of drama and its own palpable ghosts that roar right through the upstairs window of the household where the action unfolds. Like other Wilson plays, ''The Piano Lesson'' seems to sing even when it is talking. But it isn't all of America that is singing. The central fact of black American life - the long shadow of slavery -transposes the voices of Mr. Wilson's characters, and of the indelible actors who inhabit them, to a key that rattles history and shakes the audience on both sides of the racial divide. Set in the Pittsburgh of 1936, just midway in time between ''Joe Turner's Come and Gone'' and ''Fences,'' Mr. Wilson's new play echoes his others by reaching back toward Africa and looking ahead to modern urban America even as it remains focused on the intimate domestic canvas of a precise bygone year. Though ''The Piano Lesson'' is about a fight over the meaning of a long span of history, its concerns are dramatized within a simple battle between a sister and a brother over the possession of a musical instrument. The keeper of the piano, a family heirloom, is a young widow named Berniece (S. Epatha Merkerson), who lets it languish unused in the parlor of the house she shares with her uncle and daughter. Her brother, Boy Willie (Charles S. Dutton), barges in unannounced from Mississippi, intending to sell the antique to buy a farm on the land his family worked as slaves and sharecroppers. One need only look at the majestic upright piano itself to feel its power as a symbolic repository of a people's soul. Sculptured into its rich wood are totemic human figures whose knife-drawn features suggest both the pride of African culture and the grotesque scars of slavery. As it happens, both the pride and scars run deep in the genealogy of the siblings at center stage. Their great-grandfather, who carved the images, lost his wife and young son when they were traded away for the piano. Years later, Berniece and Boy Willie's father was killed after he took the heirloom from a new generation of white owners. In ''The Piano Lesson,'' the disposition of the piano becomes synonymous with the use to which the characters put their ancestral legacy. For Berniece, the instrument must remain a somber shrine to a tragic past. For Boy Willie, the piano is a stake to the freedom his father wanted him to have. To Mr. Wilson, both characters are right - and wrong. Just as Berniece is too enslaved by history to get on with her life, so Boy Willie is too cavalier about his family's heritage to realize that money alone cannot buy him independence and equality in a white man's world. Like all Wilson protagonists, both the brother and sister must take a journey, at times a supernatural one, to the past if they are to seize the future. They cannot be reconciled with each other until they have had a reconciliation with the identity that is etched in their family tree, as in the piano, with blood. Mr. Dutton and Ms. Merkerson prove to be extraordinary adversaries through every twist of their no-holds-barred dispute. They command equal respect and affection through antithetical acting styles. As he first revealed as Levee, the discordant trumpet player in Mr. Wilson's ''Ma Rainey's Black Bottom,'' the burly, broadly smiling Mr. Dutton is a force of nature on stage: a human cyclone who, as Berniece says, sows noise, confusion and trouble wherever he goes. Here is that rare actor who can announce that he's on fire and make an audience believe he might actually burn down the theater. Yet the impressive Ms. Merkerson remains quiet and dignified holding her ground against him - at least up to a point. In the evening's most devastating scene, she slugs her brother in impo

Subject: South Africa's Great Eviction From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 10:38:23 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.arts.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/09/29/wsaf29.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/29/ixworld.html Homeless Victims of South Africa's Great Eviction By David Blair Almost a million black workers have been evicted from South Africa's farms since the advent of the 'rainbow' nation's new democracy, more than during the last decade of apartheid. A new survey has disclosed the huge scale of an enforced upheaval sweeping the country, with 942,303 farm workers and dependants evicted in the 10 years after the transition to black rule in 1994. In the previous decade, when apartheid was still in force, 737,114 were removed. Virtually all the dispossessed labourers once lived and worked on white-owned farms. Today, they form an army of the uprooted and impoverished, pouring into squatter camps and townships across South Africa. Elliot Lekoaletso, 67, was forced to leave his home on a white-owned farm four years ago. Now he is reduced to living in two shabby rooms adjoining a pigsty, while the veldt of Knotted Roots farm, his old home, is roamed by herds of zebra, eland, springbok and wildebeest. 'I can't forget that place because I grew up there,' said Mr Lekoaletso. 'It has many memories for me. If there was a way of going back, I would go back. But what can I do?' He moved to the farm as a six-year-old in 1944 and worked there from the age of 11 until 1989, when both his legs were amputated after severe illness and infection. Mr Lekoaletso's mother and sister are buried on Knotted Roots. He left four years ago when the new owner, Willem Maritz, cut off his water supply. He had been living on the farm with his sister, 71, his brother, 72, and his three grandchildren, aged 11 to 19. Mr Maritz, who bought Knotted Roots in 1997, ordered Mr Lekoaletso to pay a monthly water charge of £9. 'He drove up to my place. He did not get out of the car and he ignored my greeting,' said Mr Lekoaletso. 'He said, 'Are you still living here?' I said, 'Yes, this is my place'. He said, 'For this month, you must pay 100 Rand for water, or you must go'. I felt very let down because I was expecting a good man.' Mr Lekoaletso stopped paying after a few months. Mr Maritz duly cut off the water supply and sent his foreman to order him and his relatives to leave. According to Marc Wegerif, one of the new study's authors, a minimum wage and new legal obligations for farmers help account for the huge number of evictions. South African landowners also face intense competition from Europe's subsidised farmers. Now, instead of growing crops or running cattle, they are turning estates into wildlife reserves and evicting workers to make way for game. The mass eviction of black labourers risks provoking a popular backlash against the country's 50,000 white farmers. If the farmers are to secure their long-term future and avoid the fate of their counterparts in Zimbabwe, campaigners say they must accept greater responsibility for the welfare of all those who live on their land. About 85 per cent of commercial farmland is white-owned and only three per cent has been handed over to blacks since apartheid's demise. If farm workers continue to be dispossessed in large numbers, the government would find it far easier to justify taking tougher measures against white farmers. Mr Maritz, who has turned Knotted Roots into a 'guest farm' complete with conference facilities, said he was entitled to ask for a water charge from a tenant. 'They were using a lot of water and they weren't paying for it,' he said. 'Where you live, if you don't pay for your water, they cut you off.' He added that Mr Lekoaletso's relatives had joined him on the farm and he was afraid of a burgeoning squatter camp appearing on his land. Told that Mr Lekoaletso and his grandchildren were living beside a pigsty, Mr Maritz replied: 'It's not my problem. I did what I could for them, but I couldn't keep supplying them with water for nothing.' He added: 'They felt they should be given something for nothing. That's a problem with a lot of black people. Because they were previously disadvantaged, they feel they should just have things given to them.' A few miles from Knotted Roots is a squatter camp filled with workers evicted from other farms. Joseph Mabote, 56, who lives in a shack with his seven children, said he was still waiting to benefit from the 'new' South Africa. 'I have the feeling that the white farmers feel they can do what they want and I have no power to stop them,' he said.

Subject: Re: South Africa's Great Eviction From: Mik To: Terri Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 17:21:37 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Any suggestions on how to solve this problem?

Subject: Re: South Africa's Great Eviction From: Terri To: Mik Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 19:01:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Sorry, I missed this question. Tne sense I have is that South Africa's land redistribution program which is based on compensation for land taken and judicial review of the procedure can be effective and reasonably 'fair.' The problem is people become fiercely attached to land, however they have come to ownership.

Subject: For Terri and Emma From: Mik To: Terri Date Posted: Thurs, Oct 06, 2005 at 11:00:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Terri, Emma, There is considerable amount of sensationalism in the article, but at the same time the article does touch on a few clearly separate issues, unfortunately the article does not go deeper into the issues, but rather focuses on a sensationalizing the topic. The issues raised in the article are: 1. Land redistribution and restitution 2. Commercial use of the land 3. Demographic and Economic activities of the land. The article begins with the statement of “…942,303 farm workers and dependants evicted…” and goes onto show that this is worse than the apartheid days. No this is very different to the apartheid days. The evictions are for people who never owned the land, the evictions are part of circumstances that to a large extent are not the fault of the farmers. 1. Land restitution. South Africa has come a very long way in land restitution and according to the Chief land claims commissioner Tozi Gwanya, just short of 1 Billion Dollars has already been spent by the government, 62,000 land claims had been settled with 22,447 claims to go. That is impressive and in view of that, the quote in the article, “..The mass eviction of black labourers risks provoking a popular backlash against the country's 50,000 white farmers….” Seems like a very bogus opinion. 2. Commercial use of land The article makes the quote, “…About 85 per cent of commercial farmland is white-owned and only three per cent has been handed over to blacks since apartheid's demise….” This is a very intriguing and definitely very sensational statement. Yes it is true that the amount of commercial farmland is heavily weighted towards white people. But keep in mind that black people have never been commercial farmers in South Africa. Their concept of farming is purely for subsistence and not commercial. Of the ‘commercial land’ on 3% has been handed over to blacks as part of the restitution program BUT commercial land is not the only land available, explaining the 62,000 land claims that have been resolved. What the article does not explain is that White farmers have been actively training black farmers to become commercial farmers and today 15% of all commercial farming activity is black owned. This is part of a joint program between the SA government and the Farmers union. That is a very impressive figure given the fact that black farmers have started with Zero and in less than 10 years make up 15%. 3. Demographic and Economic activities of the land. South Africa faces ever changing demographic and economic activities just like any other country. This impacts the farmers and in turn the labourers in many adverse ways. Historically speaking farmers were the backbone of the previous apartheid government and became a key target by black terrorist groups. More than 1 450 farmers, some of their family members and employees have been murdered in South Africa since 1994. It’s not up to me to point fingers on who is to blame – but there is definitely a historical issue here and one of the results is the eviction of people (who may at one time have been labourers) and who are poor and destitute. Normally having poor people living next to rich people is a recipe for crime. So the reaction is - get rid of it. Good or bad, again I can’t comment. But you can clearly see there is a knee jerk reaction when people face the very real danger of being murdered. That has a lot to do with the statement in the article: “…He added that Mr Lekoaletso's relatives had joined him on the farm and he was afraid of a burgeoning squatter camp appearing on his land…..” The next issue is the commercial viability of farms has changed quite dramatically. Farms tend to have huge open areas and are also perfect for game farming and tourism. So as the article stated, “….Now, instead of growing crops or running cattle, they are turning estates into wildlife reserves and evicting workers to make way for game….” What does one do in this case? You have a small enclave of people living in what is now to become an area where you are about to introduce lions, buck, zebras etc and have people come around with guns to do hunting. Do you really want to have people living on your property under those circumstances? Game farming has become seriously big business in SA. But a lot of these labourers have benefited with a government program to train them to become game wardens. Unfortunately a minority of the ex-labourers are benefiting from the program. But view this in the same context of factories leaving the USA to China and perhaps you’ll get an appreciation for the issues. Again, the article has brushed over 3 separate topics, excluded any facts about what has been achieved in the way of land restitution, farm murders and blurred the 3 issues to create the wrong message. I hope I have given a little more clarity to this issue. And please tell me I have not typed all this for nothing.

Subject: Miers called Bush most briliant man. . . From: Erica To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 10:30:44 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Harriet Miers once called Bush, the most brilliant man she has ever met. This statement alone deserves a fillibuster. Either Harriet is hanging out with some really dumbass people or she's a damn liar. Either way, she is a horrible choice for Supreme Court.

Subject: Tons of Ice on Trips to Nowhere From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 10:09:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/02/national/nationalspecial/02ice.html October 2, 2005 Stumbling Storm-Aid Effort Put Tons of Ice on Trips to Nowhere By SCOTT SHANE and ERIC LIPTON WASHINGTON - When the definitive story of the confrontation between Hurricane Katrina and the United States government is finally told, one long and tragicomic chapter will have to be reserved for the odyssey of the ice. Ninety-one thousand tons of ice cubes, that is, intended to cool food, medicine and sweltering victims of the storm. It would cost taxpayers more than $100 million, and most of it would never be delivered. The somewhat befuddled heroes of the tale will be truckers like Mark Kostinec, who was dropping a load of beef in Canton, Ohio, on Sept. 2 when his dispatcher called with an urgent government job: Pick up 20 tons of ice in Greenville, Pa., and take it to Carthage, Mo., a staging area for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Mr. Kostinec, 40, a driver for Universe Truck Lines of Omaha, was happy to help with the crisis. But at Carthage, instead of unloading, he was told to take his 2,000 bags of ice on to Montgomery, Ala. After a day and a half in Montgomery, he was sent to Camp Shelby, in Mississippi. From there, on Sept. 8, he was waved onward to Selma, Ala. And after two days in Selma he was redirected to Emporia, Va., along with scores of other frustrated drivers who had been following similarly circuitous routes. At Emporia, Mr. Kostinec sat for an entire week, his trailer burning fuel around the clock to keep the ice frozen, as FEMA officials studied whether supplies originally purchased for Hurricane Katrina might be used for Hurricane Ophelia. But in the end only 3 of about 150 ice trucks were sent to North Carolina, he said. So on Sept. 17, Mr. Kostinec headed to Fremont, Neb., where he unloaded his ice into a government-rented storage freezer the next day. 'I dragged that ice around for 4,100 miles, and it never got used,' Mr. Kostinec said. A former mortgage broker and Enron computer technician, he had learned to roll with the punches, and he was pleased to earn $4,500 for the trip, double his usual paycheck. He was perplexed, however, by the government's apparent bungling. 'They didn't seem to know how much ice they were buying and how much they were using,' he said. 'All the truckers said the money was good. But we were upset about not being able to help.' In the chaotic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, Mr. Kostinec's government-ordered meandering was not unusual. Partly because of the mass evacuation forced by Hurricane Katrina, and partly because of what an inspector general's report this week called a broken system for tracking goods at FEMA, the agency ordered far more ice than could be distributed to people who needed it. Over about a week after the storm, FEMA ordered 211 million pounds of ice for Hurricane Katrina, said Rob Holland, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers, which buys the ice that FEMA requests under a contract with IAP Worldwide Services of Cape Canaveral, Fla. Officials eventually realized that that much ice was overkill, and managed to cancel some of the orders. But the 182 million pounds actually supplied turned out to be far more than could be delivered to victims. In the end, Mr. Holland said, 59 percent of the ice was trucked to storage freezers all over the country to await the next disaster; some has been used for Hurricane Rita. Of $200 million originally set aside for ice purchases, the bill for the Hurricane Katrina purchases so far is more than $100 million - and climbing, Mr. Holland said. Under the ice contract, the government pays about $12,000 to buy a 20-ton truckload of ice, delivered to its original destination. If it is moved farther, the price is $2.60 a mile, and a day of waiting costs up to $900, Mr. Holland said. Those numbers add up fast, and reports like Mr. Kostinec's have stirred concern on Capitol Hill, as more wearying evidence of the federal government's incoherent response to the catastrophe. At a hearing on Wednesday, Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, expressed astonishment that many truckloads of ice had ended up in storage 1,600 miles from the Hurricane Katrina damage zone in her state, apparently because the storage contractor, AmeriCold Logistics, had run out of space farther south. 'The American taxpayers, and especially the Katrina victims, cannot endure this kind of wasteful spending,' Ms. Collins said. Asked about trips like Mr. Kostinec's, Nicol Andrews, a FEMA spokeswoman, said: 'He was put on call for a need and the need was not realized, so he went home. Any reasonable person recognizes the fact that it makes sense to prepare for the worst, hope for the best and place your resources where they may be needed.' Unlike an ordinary hurricane, which may leave a large population in still-habitable housing but without power for days or weeks, Hurricane Katrina destroyed neighborhoods and led to unprecedented evacuation, Ms. Andrews said. 'The population we ordered the ice for had been dispersed,' she said, 'which is good, because they are out of harm's way.' Ms. Andrews said FEMA realized it must improve its monitoring of essential items. The new report by the homeland security inspector general says that after last year's hurricanes million of dollars of ice was left unused in Florida because FEMA had 'no automated way to coordinate quantities of commodities with the people available to accept and distribute them.' Ms. Andrews said, 'There are programs in the works that will help us better track commodities, not just ice, but water and tarps and food.' One system would use bar codes and a global positioning system, 'so literally we will know exactly where every bag of ice is.' Some people, including Michael D. Brown, the former FEMA director, have questioned why the agency spends so much money moving ice. 'I feebly attempted to get FEMA out of the business of ice,' Mr. Brown told a House panel this week. 'I don't think that's a federal government responsibility to provide ice to keep my hamburger meat in my freezer or refrigerator fresh.' But ice, even Mr. Brown agreed, at times plays a critical role, like helping keep patients alive at places like Meadowcrest Hospital, in Gretna, La. After the hurricane hit, the air-conditioning went out and temperatures inside climbed into the 90's. 'Physicians and staff attempted to cool patients by placing ice in front of fans,' Phillip Sowa, the hospital's chief executive, wrote in an online account of the ordeal. Archie Harris, a Wilmington, N.C., ice merchant who serves as disaster preparedness chairman for the International Packaged Ice Association, said that while FEMA had been criticized mostly as being underprepared, on the ice question it was being criticized for being overprepared. 'FEMA can't win right now,' Mr. Harris said. 'Can you imagine what people would say if they'd run out of ice?' Not all of the ice delivery trips, by an estimated 4,000 drivers, ended in frustration. Mike Snyder, a truck driver from Berwick, Pa., took an excruciating journey that started in Allentown, Pa., on Sept. 16 and did not end until two weeks later, on Friday morning, when he arrived in Tarkington Prairie, Tex. The electricity was out in the small community. When Mr. Snyder pulled up in front of a local church and unloaded his ice, residents were overjoyed to see him. 'I felt like I did a lot of good,' he said. Truck drivers who pinballed around the country felt differently. Having almost lost his Florida home to a hurricane last year, Jeff Henderson was eager to help when he heard that FEMA needed truckers to carry ice. He drove at his own expense to Wisconsin to collect a 20-ton load and delivered it to the Carthage staging area. Then he, too, was sent across the South: Meridian, Miss.; Selma; and finally Memphis, where he waited five days and then delivered his ice to storage. 'I can't understand what happened,' Mr. Henderson said. 'The government's the only customer that plays around like that.' Mike Hohnstein, a dispatcher in Omaha, sent a truckload out of Dubuque, Iowa, to Meridian. From there, the driver was sent to Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, to Columbia, S.C., and finally to Cumberland, Md., where he bought a lawn chair and waited for six days. Finally, 10 days after he started, the driver was told to take the ice to storage in Bettendorf, Iowa, Mr. Hohnstein said. The truck had traveled 3,282 miles, but not a cube of ice had reached a hurricane victim. 'Well,' Mr. Hohnstein said, 'the driver got to see the country.' His company's bill to the government will exceed $15,000, he said, but the ice was worth less than $5,000. 'It seemed like an incredible waste of money,' he said. The next time FEMA calls for help, it may find the response far less willing. After two Universe Truck Lines drivers spent more than two weeks on the road to no purpose, the company decided it had had enough. When a FEMA contractor called and asked if the company could take some ice stored in Fremont, Neb., to Fort Worth, Tex., Universe said no. 'Our trucks had been tied up for 17 days,' Sean Smal, a Universe dispatcher, said. 'We couldn't take another trip like those.'

Subject: Bobby, I found a solution!!!!! From: Erica To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 10:04:01 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hey Bobby, I found a site that you can link to and they are the ones who have to sort out the copyright problem. Truthout.org stopped linking to Krugman but over at DailyKos they did a post called Krugman and Herbert, double whammie. And then at the bottom of the post they listed a free link. If you click on it you go to a site called America's Newspaper: The ultimate Newspaper Archive. They list the entire column. They have Oct. 3rd's column now and I have read it. You may not be able to print the column but you can certainly link to another site that has the column. There is nothing that can be done about that. I don't know how to do the link but you can either go to DailyKos and look at the Recommended diaries or try to do a search for America's Newspapers. Anyway, I think this is the solution you have been looking for.

Subject: Re: Bobby, I found a solution!!!!! From: Jennifer To: Erica Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 12:29:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The only solution is to post TimesSelect articles in excerpt with comments.

Subject: Re: Bobby, I found a solution!!!!! From: al To: Erica Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 11:44:19 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Post a URL.

Subject: Re: Bobby, I found a solution!!!!! From: Yann (from France) To: Erica Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 10:57:27 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank you, Erica.

Subject: Someone post a URL please From: Erica To: Yann (from France) Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 16:07:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I don't know how to post a URL. Can someone who knows how find the site and post it?

Subject: Re: Someone post a URL please From: Jennifer To: Erica Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 18:20:19 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Erica, I will look :) But, simply use the mouse to copy the address line and set it in the tex as Emma does with the New York Times articles she posts. Easy. Thanks for all!

Subject: A very long one! From: Yann To: Jennifer Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 03:32:55 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://infoweb.newsbank.com/iw-search/we/InfoWeb?d_issuesearch=on&f_subsection=sEDITORIAL DESK&p_action=doc&p_topdoc=1&p_docnum=1&p_sort=YMD_date:D&p_text_direct-0=document_id=( 10D03A794B30CAB8 )&d_place=NYTB&p_multi=NYTB&f_issue=2005-10-03&f_publisher=&p_product=NewsBank&p_theme=aggregated4&p_nbid=A4AR51LGMTEyNzEzNDYwNi40NzA4MTU6MToxMjpuY2RtaW51dGVtYW4

Subject: Thanks Yann!! From: Erica To: Yann Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 10:27:56 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Wow, that is long! LOL But I am glad you did find it Yann. Now we need to hear from Bobby about whether or not he will link to the site instead of directing everyone to the New York Times. I don't think you can get in trouble for linking to a site that has the article. As far as I know, that's not against any law. And it sure makes PK relevant again. And it makes it much easier to actually discuss PK's column, which I thought was at least in part the reason for this site.

Subject: Re: Thanks Yann!! From: Dorian To: Erica Date Posted: Wed, Oct 05, 2005 at 04:17:23 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: When I type in the link I am brought to the Newsbank page, but I get the message: Error: Your Search session has expired. Presumably the link has expired. When I tried it shortly after the link was posted I got to the page, but was asked for a user name and password, so also wasn't able to read the Krugman column. But it does look like an interesting site, provided one can access it....Dorian

Subject: The Other Black Gold From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 06:00:32 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/opinion/03schweitzer.html October 3, 2005 The Other Black Gold By BRIAN SCHWEITZER Helena, Mont. AMERICA has a substance abuse problem, and Montana may have a cure. It is easy to forget, but before the hurricanes bumped up already outrageous fuel prices, President Bush was forced to ask the royals of Saudi Arabia - the country that gave us 15 of the 19 Sept. 11 hijackers - to lower the price of oil so Americans could afford to drive. He was refused. In truth, he had no choice. America is addicted to foreign oil, and like any addict we are at the mercy of the pushers and require an intervention. Montana, among other states, is trying to help America get clean by promoting a range of modern domestic energy strategies. Yet our biggest idea is actually a very old recipe: gasoline made from coal instead of oil. Most people are surprised to learn that we can produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other petroleum products out of coal. Indeed, the process was used in America as early as 1928. In World War II, 92 percent of Germany's aviation fuel and half its total petroleum came from synthetic-fuel plants. South Africa has used a similar technology for 50 years, and now makes 200,000 barrels per day of synthetic gasoline and diesel. 'Synfuels' have remarkable properties: they are high-performing substances that run in existing engines without any technical modifications, and they burn much more cleanly than conventional fuels. The synfuel process, which is nothing like conventional coal use, removes greenhouse gases as well as toxins like sulfur, mercury and arsenic. And the technology has other applications: a synfuel plant can generate electric power, make synthetic natural gas, and produce the hydrogen that many (including President Bush) believe is the energy source of the future. Montana thinks synfuels make a lot of sense for America, especially since our state has 120 billion tons of coal, more than a third of America's reserves. That's the liquid fuel equivalent of one-quarter of the oil underlying the Middle East. Responsible development of even a small fraction of these reserves could give America control over the price of gas, dissolve the oil bonds that tie us to the Middle East, and create wealth and jobs that would remain on American soil. Synfuel can also aid military security. The Department of Defense - America's largest consumer of foreign oil - has stated a desire to run all battlefield equipment on a single, multipurpose synthetic fuel. A Pentagon report released last year, which presciently warned of Gulf Coast hurricanes as a major threat to military fuel supply, says synfuel is ideal as a stable, clean, domestically made battlefield fuel. So what are the drawbacks? The hurdle in making synfuel has always been the cost of production, about $35 a barrel, more expensive than oil has historically been. But as we all know, times have changed. Yes, there will be significant start-up costs for private companies, but risk can be alleviated with long-term buyers like the military and with new federal loan guarantees. And while Montana will do its part to help with appropriate transportation and other public facilities, a stronger federal investment - like the billions in annual subsidies and tax breaks big oil companies have long received - could really kick-start the industry. Once, our government made such investments. In the 1930's and 40's, the United States made more than a million barrels of synthetic gasoline at several test plants. But the oil industry persuaded Washington to abandon the research. Ever since, presidents and Congresses have been unwilling, or unable, to combat Big Oil and make energy independence a top priority. The pattern continues. Four years after 9/11, Congress and the administration have given us an energy bill that by the president's own admission provides no relief from foreign oil any time soon. Meanwhile, less-advanced nations are passing us by. China, Malaysia and Qatar are building large synfuel facilities; Brazil has a new generation of cars that run on any combination of ethanol or gasoline in a single tank, allowing drivers to use whichever is cheaper that day. Like all Americans, Montanans are tired of this nonsense. We are tired of paying $3 a gallon for gas, tired of watching third-world nations overtake us in energy innovation, and tired of supporting the kind of tyrants that young Americans have spent two centuries fighting and dying to defeat. Synfuel, ethanol, biodiesel, wind power, solar power, hydrogen - these are no longer dreamy ideas. They are now real and ready solutions, and with a national committment behind them, America can kick the foreign oil habit for good.

Subject: Congress and Katrina From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 05:56:38 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/opinion/03mon1.html October 3, 2005 Congress and Katrina What perfect timing: the bankruptcy law set to go into effect Oct. 17 is arriving just in time to inflict more pain on Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Texas residents who have been hit by the gulf hurricanes. They lost their homes, businesses and even loved ones and now may face financial ruin without the protection of bankruptcy. Robert Lawless, a law professor at the University of Nevada, found in a forthcoming Nevada Law Journal study that bankruptcy filings rose about 50 percent faster in states affected by hurricanes than in those unaffected. That the Hurricane Katrina victims would suffer under the draconian new law is hard to swallow. Their plight also raises the question of whether anyone at all should be punished by this unfortunate piece of legislation. The banking and credit-card companies that bankrolled the new law - both in campaign contributions and lobbying muscle - want us to believe that it is designed to capture wild spenders who finance lavish lifestyles before ducking behind the protection of bankruptcy when the bills come due. But this contemporary retelling of the myth of the welfare queen dissolves under scrutiny. What most bankruptcy filers have in common is a huge setback beyond their control, like illness, the death of a loved one, divorce or layoffs. Most Americans view bankruptcy as a last resort, even after a traumatic event. Mr. Lawless's study, based on 18 major storms between 1980 and 2004, found that the peak in bankruptcy filings was not right after a storm but two to three years later. That means victims made every effort to rebuild their lives before seeking help. F. James Sensenbrenner Jr., the Wisconsin congressman who was a sponsor of the bankruptcy law in the House, told The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last month that those who had lost the fight against the new rules needed to 'get over it.' Easy for him to say. His Congressional salary of more than $160,000 this year is nearly quadruple the median United States household income last year, which was less than $45,000. His great-grandfather was one of the founders of the company that brought us Kleenex and Huggies, making him an heir to the Kimberly-Clark fortune. He even once won $250,000 in the D.C. Lottery, for him just a cherry on top of a fortune reported at more than $10 million. It's a shame that Mr. Sensenbrenner, who has to be one of the luckier people around, can't spare a little sympathy for the less fortunate. Sorry, Jim. We can't get over it.

Subject: Exploiting Katrina From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 05:49:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/opinion/03mon2.html October 3, 2005 Exploiting Katrina It was almost inevitable that we would see every kind of legislative lunacy after Katrina, proposed in the name of accelerating the cleanup in New Orleans, improving the nation's energy security or achieving other worthy objectives. And so we have: Congress has used Katrina as cover for ideas that could never stand on their own and for a remarkably brazen raid on the public treasury and environmental protections. Take, for example, Richard Pombo, the chairman of the House Resources Committee, who is proposing to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, allow states to opt out of a longstanding moratorium on offshore drilling, and suspend judicial and administrative reviews of federal decisions to open public lands for oil and gas leasing. This is the same Richard Pombo who proposed last week - joking, he said - to sell off a few lesser-known national parks if money from the Arctic refuge was not forthcoming. Then there is Joe Barton, the Texas Republican who, ostensibly to increase fuel supplies, rammed a bill through the House energy committee that would ease clean air restrictions on refineries and drive a final nail in the coffin of New Source Review, a useful law the administration has been trying to kill for years. The law requires older industrial facilities to install modern pollution controls, and Mr. Barton's bill would remove not only refineries but hundreds of coal-fired power plants from its reach. Similar mischief is afoot in the Senate, where James Inhofe, the ferociously anti-regulatory Oklahoma Republican who runs the environment committee, would suspend for up to 18 months any environmental law that in his view stands in the way of post-hurricane reconstruction. The most egregious example of self-dealing comes from the Louisiana delegation. Not content with the $62.3 billion Congress has already appropriated for emergency relief, the state's representatives have asked for $250 billion more in federal reconstruction funds, equal to more than $50,000 per Louisiana resident. This seems a bit much, especially since the proposal also calls for suspending important environmental reviews and funneling huge sums to the Army Corps of Engineers for projects that seem to have more to do with the delegation's political ambitions than with flood control and the intelligent restoration of the Louisiana Delta. Congress's first obligation is to help Louisiana's stricken residents get back on their feet. It is also obliged to design and deliver a reconstruction plan that makes sense now and for the future. To exploit this disaster for short-term political and ideological gain is cynical even by Congressional standards.

Subject: Krugman: Miserable by Design From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 05:45:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/ Krugman: Miserable by Design Paul Krugman looks at federal aid to victims of Hurricane Katrina and addresses failure in health care and housing arising from the dual problems of incompetence and politics: Miserable by Design, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...Start with health care, where conservative senators, generally believed to be acting on behalf of the White House, have blocked bipartisan legislation that would provide all low-income victims of Katrina with health coverage under Medicaid... According to Krugman, the worry over extending Medicaid benefits to all poor victims of the Hurricane is political. If Medicaid is expanded it will create a precedent that will open the doors for future claims of similar need, something the White House does not want to occur, and it may also lead to discussions of national health care which the administration wants to avoid: In a letter urging Senate leaders to reject the bill, Mike Leavitt, the secretary of Health and Human Services, warned that it would create 'a new Medicaid entitlement.' People with medical needs will need to be treated somewhere and the effect of this policy is to shift the costs to the states: ...surveys show that many destitute survivors of Katrina are being denied Medicaid, and some are going without medicines they need. Local hospitals and doctors will often treat Katrina victims even if they can't pay. But this means that communities that have welcomed Katrina refugees will, in effect, be financially punished for their generosity... Krugman next discusses housing. After noting that both conservatives and liberals are in wide agreement that housing vouchers are superior to housing projects (here's my support), he notes: ...But the administration has chosen, instead, to focus its efforts on the creation of public housing in the form of trailer parks, which ... will almost surely be more expensive than a voucher program and may create long-term refugee ghettoes. Even Newt Gingrich calls this 'extraordinarily bad policy' that 'violates every conservative principle.' So why is the administration abandoning long-held conservative principles? Why trailer parks? Why is medical care for victims of Hurricane Katrina being delayed or denied, something even many in the GOP such as senator Grassley do not favor (see GOP resists Grassley's more caring plan for aid from The Des Moines Register). How can we understand the administration's post-Katrina policy? Krugman explains: ...President Bush['s] ... mission ... is to dismantle or at least shrink the federal social safety net ... Mr. Bush can't avoid helping Katrina's victims, but he doesn't want to legitimize institutions that help the needy ... As a result, his administration refuses to use those institutions, even when they are the best way to provide victims with aid. More generally, the administration is trying to treat Katrina's victims as harshly as the political realities allow, so as not to create a precedent for other aid efforts. As the misery of the hurricane's survivors goes on, remember this: to a large extent, they are miserable by design.

Subject: Krugman exposed From: Ha Ha To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 02, 2005 at 18:58:42 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: As the tabloid trash columnist he is. http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001220139

Subject: 'Errare Humanum Est ' From: Pancho Villa To: Ha Ha Date Posted: Mon, Oct 03, 2005 at 07:07:45 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: '...Mr. Krugman was named columnist of the year for 2002 by Editor and Publisher....' http://www.motherjones.com/radio/2005/08/krugman_bio.html

Subject: Krugman and Politics From: Mik To: Pancho Villa Date Posted: Tues, Oct 04, 2005 at 11:52:17 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: This is exactly what I was afraid of happening. Krugman is superb in his economic understanding and analysis but he should have kept out of poilitics, especially controversial politics. It is always great to hear an outspoken master criticise the Republicans but, when it comes to politics, that should be left to someone like Howard Dean (who knows how to do it). My biggest fear is that Krugman's credibility has been severely harmed by his political statements. In his book, 'The Accidental Theorist' Krugman lays out the theme of how politicians love to talk economics, mainly because the economic concepts seem so obvious. But Krugman goes to great lengths to show that economics is not an obvious field, after all there are full university degrees dedicated to truly understanding the theory. Krugman goes on to show how politicians make so many stupid statements that conflict with basic economics 101 theory. And even some economists who studied economics forget the basic theory (or were absent that day it was taught). The underlying theme to Krugman's book is that - don't try act like an economist even if the concept seems obvious - you will make a fool of yourself. Well I hate to say this - the same applies to politics. There are full univeristy courses dedicated to political science and understanding the subtle legal concepts are best left to lawyers who know what they are talking about (most of the time). Why does Krugman not take some of his own advice? I have been a great Krugman fan when reading his political commentary. He has true command of the subject. But his political statements have been his downfall. We have just lost a very powerful liberal spokesman of prominance. If/when the democrats come to power, Krugman could be instrumental in the economic policy - but the criticism from the Right will be extremely difficult to overcome when they raise Krugman's political statements (that requred much correction).

Subject: WMD?, EL Niño?, WMD? From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 02, 2005 at 17:20:26 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: Iraq, Katrina, Iraq: the ordeal continues... Katrina, which deflected the focus from Iraq, is now fading away. The spotlight is now back on Iraq JOSEPH S NYE Four years ago, President George W Bush was on shaky political ground. He had barely won the controversial 2000 election, and polls showed the American people remained doubtful about him. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Bush found his voice and the American people rallied around his presidency. Thanks to Osama Bin Laden, Bush’s popularity soared, and while his ratings had diminished by the 2004 election, his “war on terrorism” helped him win a second term. In September 2005, another crisis, Hurricane Katrina, probably killed at least as many Americans as the terrorist attacks in 2001, but it had the opposite effect on Bush’s poll numbers, which dropped to an all-time low. Why the startling difference? For one thing, the September 11 attacks were by a human enemy, and despite inadequate domestic preparations for such an event, Americans’ anger was directed outward. Katrina, on the other hand, was a terrible act of nature, but one that was predicted by the national weather service with impressive accuracy. The inadequate preparation and slow response by the Bush administration meant that anger was directed at the president. To be sure, some of the blame for poor preparation belongs to state and local officials. But the Bush administration bears a significant share of the responsibility. In the 2000 election campaign, Bush praised Bill Clinton’s Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) for its effectiveness. As president, he treated it as a source of patronage, replacing its top officials with political cronies who had little experience in managing emergencies. To make matters worse, the administration shoehorned FEMA into its massive new bureaucracy, the Department of Homeland Security. During the 2004 election campaign, Bush claimed that the new department had made Americans safer. But the halting and weak response to Katrina has called this into question. If it was difficult to evacuate and supply a small city like New Orleans, how would New York or Los Angeles fare? Katrina has also raised questions about other items on the president’s agenda. One of the top priorities had been the Republican plan to complete the repeal of the estate tax on the richest Americans. But, as the costs of responding to Katrina mount, adding to the federal deficit, it seems difficult to proceed as planned. Moreover, rising gasoline prices have called attention to the shortcomings of the Bush administration’s energy policy, which includes recently passed legislation that contains inadequate requirements for energy conservation. The press, meanwhile, has reported on speculation about the relationship between warmer ocean waters and the frequency of severe hurricanes, thus highlighting the low priority that the administration has given to environmental problems in general and global climate change in particular. But Bush will survive Katrina. The floodwaters will recede in New Orleans and reconstruction will begin. Already, the scenes of looters exploiting the chaos in the early aftermath of the storm have been replaced with stories of charitable contributions from other parts of the country, of children being accepted into schools outside the city, and of families being helped by strangers. On the anniversary of the September 11 attacks, a unit of the New York City Police Department was helping out in New Orleans, and the city returned a fire engine that New Orleans had earlier donated as a symbol of solidarity. Katrina is thus likely to be a footnote in the history of the Bush presidency. The real question for Bush’s role in history remains Iraq. The short-term effect of Katrina was to drive stories about Iraq off of television screens and newspaper front pages. But the news from Iraq before the storm was bad and hasn’t gotten better. The majority Shia and their Kurdish allies rejected Bush’s plea to Iraqi politicians to modify the new draft constitution to attract disgruntled Sunni Arabs. Given that the insurgency is centered among the Sunnis, this refusal is likely to make it more difficult to establish the security that is necessary for democratic government to work. Of course, the Sunnis comprise a minority in Iraq, so insurgents have little prospect of “winning” control of the country the way North Vietnam was able to win control of South Vietnam. But that is little consolation, because they can still disrupt progress toward a stable constitutional government. At worst, they may be able to foment a civil war. Despite claims by the extreme left and right around the world, America is not an imperial nation. Domestic public opinion will support the use of force if people feel threatened or believe that the cause is just, but Americans have little interest in ruling over other nations. Neo-conservative appeals to the example of the British Empire are far-fetched. The idea that American troops will stay in Iraq indefinitely - or even “just as long as necessary and not one day more,” in the cliched language of Donald Rumsfeld - is implausible. This means that Bush has only a relatively short time to achieve his goals in Iraq. If he is able to produce a stable constitution, a political compromise among the contesting parties, and successful elections, he may be able to declare victory. But right now, the prospects look dubious. Even before the floodwaters of Katrina recede, Bush will need to focus on his Iraq conundrum, because long after Katrina has been forgotten, history will judge his presidency by how he resolves it. The writer is distinguished service professor at Harvard University http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=102757

Subject: Walk on the wild side From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Sun, Oct 02, 2005 at 17:02:02 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: The Fed's Wild Imagination by Kurt Richebächer In his testimony to Congress on July 20, 2005, Mr. Greenspan declared it quite likely that the world is currently experiencing a global savings glut. Agreeing with Ben Bernanke, he mentioned this glut as one of the factors behind the so-called interest conundrum, i.e., declining long-term rates despite rising short-term rates. Having read a lot from the Fed’s luminaries, their inability to distinguish between rampant global credit excess and a global savings glut does not surprise us. In this view, the Federal Reserve has come to the rescue of a world where excessive saving is threatening depression by eliminating savings. Attracted by superior rates of return on U.S. assets, investors around the world have been scrambling to pour their excessive savings into direct investments, stocks, bonds and real estate in the United States, in this way financing the resulting huge U.S. trade deficit. While this explanation may seem to make sense, there is one big snag: Not one word of it is true. First of all, in reality, private foreign investors have drastically curbed their investments in the United States. According to the Bank for International Settlement - the international organization of the world’s central banks - Asian central banks financed 75% of the U.S. current account deficit in 2004. First, private capital flows into the United States have slumped. Without the massive interventions by the Asian central banks, the dollar would have collapsed long ago. Second, the dollars with which these central banks have been buying U.S. Treasury and agency bonds have definitely nothing to do with Asian savings. Evidently, the central banks are recycling the dollars, no more, no less, which they receive from U.S. trade and capital flows. These dollars have come into the central banks’ possession through their interventions in the currency markets, to prevent a rise of their currencies against the dollar. To speak of a global savings glut as a possible cause of the surprisingly low U.S. long rates in the face of these blatant facts is truly the height of insolence and absurdity. That this opinion comes from the leading figures of the Federal Reserve is more than shocking. True, Asian countries have very high savings rates. For China, it is reported to be as high as 45% of disposable income. But this does not necessarily imply an existing savings surplus be lent to America. The bulk of available savings in China domestically is locked up in an even higher domestic investment ratio. Looking at the global financial system, a straightforward fact to see is that central banks have been amassing foreign exchange reserves at an accelerating pace since the early 1970s. Rising in several large waves, their main source is plainly the soaring U.S. trade deficits. Having no use for dollars in general, the first dollar recipients in the surplus countries sell them to their banks against their own currencies. These banks, in turn, found ready dollar buyers in firms and investors around the world, wanting to acquire direct investments or other assets in the United States, at least until 2000. Since then, though, capital inflows on private accounts into the United States have drastically receded, while U.S. trade deficits have exploded. In order to prevent a rise of their currencies against the dollar, central banks had to step in as buyers of last resort. Apparently, it is not widely realized that this big shift in dollar recycling from private accounts to central banks essentially has far-reaching monetary implications for the participating countries and even for the world economy and world financial markets. Buying dollars, the central banks credit the commercial banks in their country with interest-free deposits. Now, the critical point to see is that the banks, on their part, regard these deposits as their liquid reserves to be used for profitable lending or investment. Inundated with liquid reserves by the dollar buying of their central bank, the commercial banks in these countries embark on faster credit expansion. Shifting the rising surplus of liquid reserves between them, they create credit for consumers, businesses and speculators many times the amount of the liquidity injection by the central banks. Our focus in particular is on China. As in the United States, the resulting credit deluge is boosting components out of proportion to the whole economy. In China, however, the specific components are real estate and manufacturing investment, while in the United States, it is consumer-spending excess. What the Asian central banks truly recycle is the U.S. credit excess. But in flooding their banking system through the dollar purchases with liquid reserves, they transplant the virus of credit excess to their own economies. For U.S. policymakers and economists, this is a reasonable and sustainable division of labor. The U.S. economy runs on wealth creation through asset inflation with a high rate of consumption, while China and Asia run on wealth creation through saving and investment with a high rate of investment. We are fearful of this development, because it affects more or less all industrialized countries with high wage levels. In this way, overconsuming America is force-feeding the rapid mutation of China’s backward economy into a first-class manufacturing power. When China’s credit and investment boom started, in 2000-01, its central bank had foreign exchange reserves in the amount of $165.4 billion. Today, they exceed $700 billion. We are wondering what is worse for the whole world, China’s further rapid manufacturing growth or a disastrous hard landing. Observing the same monetary and economic follies as in the late 1980s in Japan, we consider the second possibility highly probable. A persistent, sharp slowdown in China’s imports strikes us as ominous. The general comforting explanation is inventory liquidation. But how to explain, then, the continuous oil and commodity boom? We suspect speculation far more than economic growth as the reason. With all the talk about a savings glut, we feel obliged to make some remarks about the subject. First, please take another look at the Wicksell quote on the first page, stating, “The supply of real capital is limited by pure physical conditions, while the supply of money is in theory unlimited.” “Supply of real capital” is actually a synonym for available savings. At an international conference in 1953 about savings in the modern economy, with many heavyweights in economics in attendance, the famous former chief economist of the Fed E.A. Goldenweiser gave a rare precise definition of saving. He said: “Saving means the withdrawal of sufficient resources from the production of consumption and services to have enough for maintenance, expansion and improvement of the plant.” Then, he complained, “that ever since Wesley Mitchell’s Business Cycles there has been a tendency to concentrate too much on the monetary expression of economic developments, and it has become reactionary to think in physical terms.” From the macro perspective, “saving” provides the physical resources for the production of capital goods in that consumers abstain with part of their income from consumption. Of course, this also involves money flows, but saving’s decisive distinguishing feature is the partial abstention from current consumption to make real resources available for the production of capital goods. It is ludicrous, therefore, when American economists claim that rising asset prices, increasing consumption, should by counted as saving. When we read decades ago that Mr. Greenspan, long before he became Fed chairman, had expressed precisely this view, he was once and for all finished for us as a serious economist. The world economy seems to be flooded with liquidity. But there are two diametrically different kinds of liquidity: earned liquidity and borrowed liquidity. The former comes from surplus income or savings; the latter comes from credit and debt creation. In a country with virtually zero savings like the United States, any liquidity essentially arises from debt creation. This is really fake liquidity depending on permanent, prodigious borrowing facilities, presently the housing bubble. Once this bubble evaporates or bursts, the U.S. economy loses its chief liquidity source - with disastrous effects on asset prices. The crucial question concerning the U.S. economy is whether it is slowing or accelerating. As explained in detail, we see a lot of fudge in the recent economic data. Our main critical consideration is that a self-sustaining recovery would absolutely require a strong rebound in business investment. But that is not in sight. On the other hand, the turnaround in the housing bubble is only a question of time. A fairly short time, we think. The consensus expects that the U.S. economy has the 'soft spot' behind it and will surprise positively. We expect shocking economic weakness. All asset prices, depending on carry trade, are in danger, including bonds. Regards, Dr. Kurt Richebächer for The Daily Reckoning http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2005/DR091405.html

Subject: Levee Reconstruction? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 17:44:13 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/national/nationalspecial/30levee.html?ex=1285732800&en=07503b52b8f59d5f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 Levee Reconstruction Will Restore, but Not Improve, Defenses in New Orleans By JOHN SCHWARTZ and ANDREW C. REVKIN The costly federal effort to rebuild New Orleans's flood defenses in time for next year's hurricane season will leave the city no less vulnerable to major storms than it was to Hurricane Katrina, engineers and other experts say. And it will take years or decades, these experts say, to provide New Orleans and nearby communities with protection against hurricanes stronger than Hurricane Katrina, which was nowhere near the worst-case storm when it arrived. Its winds over the city and Lake Pontchartrain were apparently far below the Category 3 standard that was chosen in 1965 as the storm to defend against. 'It took us 30 years to get to a Category 3 standard,' Brig. Gen. William T. Grisoli, the deputy commander of Task Force Katrina for the Army Corps of Engineers, said of the defenses in an interview. 'You're not going to be at Category 5 by the next hurricane season.' Citing the 350 miles of levees in the region, General Grisoli added, 'Put it in perspective: It's not going to happen.' The corps is now involved in an arduous process to restore the levees to their previous level of protection, beginning with quick patches and ending, if all goes according to schedule, just before next year's hurricane season with the levees restored to their level of strength before the storms hit. Solutions for the longer term are not yet on the drawing boards, but experts have wide-ranging ideas that include strengthening the current levee system, finishing long-planned projects that have limped along because of court fights and tight budgets, and even reshaping the city to recognize that some of its lowest-lying areas might serve as future flood basins in the guise of parks or other undeveloped land. For now, the Corps of Engineers acknowledges that with two months left in this year's hurricane season, New Orleans is without any defense against a major storm. Its patched levees can barely withstand a modest storm surge, and flood walls and the taxed drains and pumps can handle only six inches of rain, as last week's renewed flooding in the Lower Ninth Ward showed. 'We don't have hurricane protection,' General Grisoli said. Senator Mary L. Landrieu, who is co-sponsor of a $225 billion legislative proposal that includes upgraded flood protection and regional rebuilding, said the job ahead 'goes beyond building a higher wall' against storm waters. 'As this hurricane season tapers off,' she said, 'we have to be well on our way to drafting a master plan to create the most sophisticated levee system in the world,' with many elements working together. 'It's not a local problem - it's not a regional problem,' Ms. Landrieu said. Because of the economic importance of the area for energy and commerce, 'It's a national problem, and it's a very expensive problem to fix.' In the long run, the challenges will only grow. Sea levels are rising around the world, and the land around New Orleans - including the levees - is sinking. The Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have entered a cycle of intensified hurricane activity that could last a decade or two, and two recent studies have found that global warming might already be causing storms to be stronger than they otherwise would be. Craig E. Colten, a professor of geography and anthropology at Louisiana State University, said that what could protect against even a Category 5 storm today 'might not stand up to the worst kind of storm in 50 or 100 years.' Many experts agree on basic measures that could be taken to prevent further flooding, if Congress opens the purse strings. Alfred Naomi, senior project manager for the New Orleans District of the Corps of Engineers, has studied ways to bring New Orleans up to Category 5 protection and says any defense against such storms would start with barriers in the channels connecting Lake Pontchartrain with the Gulf of Mexico. The gates, which would be shut during storms, would prevent the surging gulf waters from adding to any surge from the lake. This would in turn reduce the amount of water coursing up the drainage canals that carry the pumped runoff out of the city and into the lake. The failure of thin flood walls along those drainage canals caused most of the flooding of central New Orleans. Smaller gates at the mouths of those canals could stop residual surges of floodwater from the lake, Mr. Naomi said. The city's pumping system can be modernized and improved, and levees and floodwalls will have to be made higher. But the added weight would cause them to sink even faster, and added width - three feet for every vertical foot - would require costly condemnation of nearby real estate. A Louisiana flood control official said that much could be accomplished for the New Orleans area by completing projects currently on the books and rethinking the regional patchwork of programs. 'Right now we have a piecemeal system,' said the official, Ed Preau, the assistant secretary for public works with the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development. While the current projects offer protection only to the Category 3 level, Mr. Preau said, they could be strengthened. 'The big issue is going to be to get past the environmental concerns,' he said, adding that wrangling with environmental groups over big projects has slowed the process. Harold Schoeffler, a local official with the Sierra Club and Audubon Society, called the accusation that projects had been significantly slowed by environmental groups 'a bunch of baloney.' Environmental groups never tried to block projects like a flood gate for Lake Pontchartrain, Mr. Schoeffler said; they have only demanded that the corps address the environmental impact. Mr. Schoeffler said the Atchafalaya River and its basin, west of the city, could play a much larger role in defense against floods. He noted that the tangled delta of the Atchafalaya naturally protects the region against storm surges, and added that the corps could enhance that protection by dredging deeper channels. 'The deltas are very beneficial,' he said, 'but you've still got to get the water out.' Professor Colten of Louisiana State, the author of 'Unnatural Metropolis: Wresting New Orleans from Nature,' said engineering work must be accompanied by efforts to restore nature's own systems for fighting floods. With the delta sinking, he said, 'The most fundamental activity outside of the city would be to restore the wetlands.' Like many environmentalists and other experts, he advocates shutting down the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a 40-year-old shipping channel that is lightly used by industry but appears to have served as a superhighway for the Katrina storm surge, contributing to the devastation of levees and flooding in St. Bernard Parish and the Lower Ninth Ward. Robert Bea, a professor of engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, said it was important not to rush into an ill-conceived plan. 'Don't just try to throw $200 billion at it,' said Dr. Bea, who has worked for the corps and who lost his home when Hurricane Betsy struck New Orleans in 1965. 'We really know how to do it better,' but 'we do need to slow down and think how to do it.' Professor Bea's ideas include eliminating many of the city's open canals entirely and replacing them with powerful underground drainage and pumping systems. He said he would also like to see barrier islands built in front of major inlets to block storm surges. Thomas L. Jackson, a longtime resident of New Orleans who is vice president in the local offices of DMJM Harris, a large engineering company, said the federal government needed to rethink the way it protects against hurricanes. After the great Mississippi River floods of 1927, Congress gave the Corps of Engineers broad powers and ample financing to do whatever was needed to prevent a similar disaster in New Orleans, including extremely strong riverside levees. By contrast, hurricane protections, which were approved after Hurricane Betsy in 1965, have greater Congressional oversight and control, and projects are subjected to a cost-benefit balancing test. 'Dams are built based on avoiding the catastrophe that would result if they failed, not on a benefit-cost ratio,' Mr. Jackson said, adding that the same standard should apply equally to hurricane protection systems for New Orleans. William F. Marcuson III, the former director of the Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station in Vicksburg, Miss., and president-elect of the American Society of Civil Engineers, said that even though elected officials have vowed the city would be rebuilt, in the long run it would be foolhardy to redevelop many of the most flood-prone areas. Essentially, he said, those areas want to be bays and wetlands. 'Buy the lots back and let insurance pay for the houses,' he went on. 'Then maybe make it a golf course or bird sanctuary.' Recovery after a disaster generally takes far more time than people expect, said Robert W. Kates, emeritus professor of geography at Brown University. Dr. Kates, who has developed a well-regarded four-stage model of disaster recovery, said that the fourth stage - the one in which greater levels of protection are put in place - is rarely accomplished because it can take many decades. As the rebuilding proceeds to the final stage of reconstruction, he said, the tensions that arise after every disaster are sure to emerge in New Orleans - especially the very common conflict between those who insist on putting things back in place quickly and those who say, 'Let's do it right. Let's do it better.'

Subject: German Foundations for Property-Owning From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 15:50:07 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20050704_15325_77200.html July 4, 2005 Germans Lay Foundations for Property-Owning Boom From Financial Times Early last year, a letter popped through the door of number 25, Am Mühlkanal in the leafy Frankfurt suburb of Sachsenhausen. Christina Schmickl, who rented the flat with her partner, opened the envelope with little enthusiasm, assuming it was another bank statement or some marketing bumph. What she found 'was quite a shock', the 20-something PhD student recalls. 'Deutsche Annington [our landlord] was offering to sell us our flat.' A few months and meetings later, Ms Schmickl was the proud owner of a three-bedroom home in a desirable part of town for just €141,500 (£95,600). It is a tale being repeated across Germany in a trend that is transforming the way the nation lives. Within five to 10 years, property experts believe more than 60 per cent of Germans could own their own homes compared with barely 40 per cent now. Germany's low level of owner occupation has deep cultural roots and was consolidated when the destruction of the second world war prompted the state and the country's big employers to rehouse the nation. But the budgets of federal and regional governments have been squeezed and companies have come under pressure to focus on their core businesses. The result has been a dramatic divestment of property, almost exclusively to foreign financial investors. The pattern began in earnest in 2001 when Guy Hands, the UK entrepreneur who then worked for Japanese financial group Nomura, acquired 64,000 former railway workers' homes from the state. Ms Schmickl's flat was one. Last year came another big deal, when Fortress, a US private equity firm, bought Gagfah, a portfolio of 80,000 flats, from the state pensions administrator. In May, Terra Firma Mr Hands' new vehicle teamed up with Citigroup, the US bank, to do the biggest private equity deal in Germany, acquiring Viterra, a bundle of 150,000 flats, from power group Eon. There has been a clutch of smaller deals. 'This is an unbelievably big structural change for Germany,' says Matthias Moser, head of Fortress's German operations. 'For 100 years, the government and big corporations have controlled the country's housing stock. Now, in a shift that began in 1998, about 40 per cent of Germany's wealth is changing hands.' Deutsche Bank estimates 1m more homes could be bought by private equity groups over the next five years. The new landlords have different aims and business models but all depend to a large degree on selling parts of their portfolios to tenants. The strategy boosts the running yield on a portfolio and generates big capital gains. Deutsche Annington, now part of the Terra Firma fold, originally cost Mr Hands €2bn, or an average €31,000 per property. Ms Schmickl's flat, a typical example, generated a 350 per cent gain. The trend of financial investors breaking up their portfolios is echoed by private landlords who are selling individual homes amid disappointment that capital values have failed to rise much in recent years and vacancy rates in some locations have increased. Although many young Germans with experience of countries where owner occupation is the norm feel emboldened to buy, others need encouragement. So the likes of Fortress and Terra Firma are going about the sales in an almost paternalistic way. Rather than using market values as the measure for the offers they make to tenants, they take the current rent level, convert it into the monthly repayment on a 30-year mortgage and calculate that back into a purchase price. It's all about affordability, says David Pascall, head of Terra Firma's German operations. 'It's always been our experience that people like to own their own homes. They buy for security. And few people are put off if the mortgage costs the same or only a little more than rent.' The firms also make the process simple by partnering with local mortgage providers. Deutsche Annington has a nationwide deal with Sparda, the mutually owned bank. Fortress, which recently began selling Gagfah homes in Nuremberg and Cologne, has teamed with regional Sparkassen, or savings banks. 'This is ideal for us,' says Mr Moser. 'Tenants are never really sure about the value of their flat. But if their local bank tells them it's a good deal and lends them the money to buy it, they feel much more confident about buying.' Ms Schmickl is a clear convert. 'We'd never even considered buying our own flat until we got that letter. But we love it. We get to stay in the same place in the same great neighbourhood but, suddenly, it feels more like a home. We've ripped out all the old floors already.'

Subject: Save the Structure of Those Aging Bones From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 14:46:41 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/05/health/05brod.html?pagewanted=all July 5, 2005 Plotting to Save the Structure of Those Aging Bones By JANE E. BRODY Osteoporosis is a serious and costly disease. Nearly 30 million women and 14 million men in the United States already have it or are heading toward it. The numbers continue to rise as the population ages, especially now that far fewer women are taking estrogen, which protects against postmenopausal bone loss. Osteoporosis is also a silent disease, silent, that is, until a bone breaks in response to a relatively minor stress, like tripping on a step. Several drugs in the bisphosphonate class - Fosamax and Actonel taken weekly and Boniva taken monthly - have been shown to stem further bone loss, increase bone density and cut fracture rates in half in women with established osteoporosis. The same effect has been seen in women with somewhat less bone loss who, for other reasons, are at high risk for a fracture. But what about the many postmenopausal women with a lesser degree of bone loss called osteopenia? Should they, too, take a bisphosphonate to protect their bones after menopause? Is this cost-effective, and is it likely to help the women more than it harms them? Specialists across the country are divided in their answers. Nearly all the experts, pro and con, act as consultants or receive research grants from the companies that make the bone-protecting drugs. Weighing the Risks Most experts say the inevitable loss of bone after menopause and the proven ability of these drugs to prevent fractures clearly outweigh the risks stemming from a slowdown in bone renewal. But others fear that long-term use of bisphosphonates can render bones more brittle and more likely to break, even as they increase bone density. Dr. Susan M. Ott, a bone expert at the University of Washington, said studies suggested that old bone that was not renewed lost its elasticity. She likened it to the effects of a very strong wind on a young tree versus a thicker old one. Young tree bend under the stress without breaking; older ones, though denser, are more likely to snap in two. Fracture risk, said Dr. Michael R. McClung of the Oregon Osteoporosis Center in Portland, is complex, and the diagnosis of osteopenia and treatment with bisphosphonates should not be based on bone mineral density (B.M.D.) tests alone. It is clear, Dr. McClung wrote in May in Annals of Internal Medicine in response to a report on cost effectiveness, 'that pharmacologic therapy is not cost-effective in women selected solely on the B.M.D. diagnosis of osteopenia.' What follows should not scare women away from bone-sparing drugs if they are at high risk for fractures because of thinning bones. But before every woman found to be osteopenic on a density test is advised to take a bisphosphonate, it may be wise to consider some early warning signs of possible harm to the architecture of bones after many years on such drugs. Though bones appear to be solid, they are fluid structures that are continually remodeled - broken down by cells called osteoclasts and rebuilt by cells called osteoblasts. When a bone is injured - and injuries called microcracks occur all the time from ordinary stress - bone-resorbing osteoclasts have to remove the damage so that the bone-building osteoblasts can fix it. Bisphosphonates increase bone density by adding minerals to bones. But they are potent inhibitors of bone resorption, drastically slowing bone remodeling. In The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism last March, Dr. Ott noted that 'after prolonged severe suppression of bone formation, bone could become too brittle and/or accumulate microdamage,' which has been shown to occur in animals given high doses of bisphosphonates. Such damage 'could eventually weaken the bone' and result in fractures after minor stresses. A report in the same journal described nine patients on Fosamax with osteoporosis or osteopenia who had nontraumatic fractures. Six patients continuing the drug experienced delayed or no healing of broken bones. The authors said that Fosamax might impair bone healing and that the drug-induced increase in bone minerals could make bones more brittle. Breaking Bones Too Easily The published cases mimic that of a healthy active woman, 59, who after six years on Fosamax for osteopenia in her spine was jolted on a subway and broke her thigh bone. The injury took two years to heal, and the healing occurred only after she had stopped taking Fosamax. A year later, she resumed the drug, only to suffer a nontraumatic fracture in her foot. Dr. Joseph M. Lane, an orthopedic surgeon in New York, described eight other patients who had fractures of the femur, many of them described as hard to heal. All the patients had been on Fosamax for more than five years. While it's not possible to know in any of these cases whether the unusual fractures and delayed healing resulted from Fosamax or patients' existing bone disease, the researchers noted that bone biopsies disclosed 'marked suppression of bone turnover,' which can render bones more brittle and delay repairs. On the other hand, Dr. Lane noted, the drugs clearly preserve the microarchitecture of bones that is otherwise lost in the first few years after menopause, and a long-term Canadian study found a lower than expected rate of hip fractures among women on the drugs. Further, Dr. Robert Recker, an endocrinologist at Creighton University in Omaha, said his bone biopsy studies showed that osteoporotic women taking Fosamax remodeled bone at rates comparable to those of healthy premenopausal women. This finding left him unconcerned about the suppression of bone turnover on Fosamax because premenopausal women rarely suffer nontraumatic fractures. Without the drug, he said, the bone-remodeling rates after menopause rise and reach maximum levels in women with osteoporosis. Dr. Ethel S. Siris, director of the osteoporosis center at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, said that bone biopsies of women taking Fosamax for 10 years 'did not show oversuppression of bone turnover' and that in her experience patients who did break bones while on the drug healed normally while continuing to take it. Dr. Siris and Dr. Recker, among others, agree that women with minimal osteopenia (T-score on the density test of minus 1.5 or better) and no other risk factors like smoking, thinness or a previous nontraumatic fracture should not be placed on a drug. They should protect their bones by doing weight-bearing exercise and taking calcium supplements with vitamin D3 (check the label carefully) and have their bone densities rechecked a year later. For those with more advanced osteopenia - a T-score of minus 2, or a score of minus 1.5 plus a risk factor - 'medication is not unreasonable to reduce fracture risk,' Dr. Siris said. Because bisphosphonates stay in bones indefinitely, their benefits are not lost on brief 'vacations' from the drugs. So Dr. Siris stops the drug after five years for a one-year holiday and has patients resume it.

Subject: Better to Be Whole Than Refined From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:36:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/health/article-page.html?res=9E00E7D81E3CF932A2575BC0A9629C8B63 August 11, 2004 It's Better to Be Whole Than Refined By Marian Burros IN just a couple of years, low-carbohydrate diets have accomplished what the government has failed to do in decades of trying: convince the public that refined grains are bad actors and whole grains are good. ''Low-carb diets have steered people toward whole grains,'' said Bonnie Liebman, the director of nutrition for the Washington-based Center for Science in the Public Interest, ''and made millions of people cut back on things made with white flour, like white bread, hamburger buns, megamuffins, 400-calorie bagels, pizza crusts, cakes, cookies, doughnuts and other sweets, even pasta and white rice. ''If you were asked to compare the impact of the South Beach diet with dietary guidelines, there would be no contest.'' Now if only consumers could distinguish between grains that are refined and grains that are whole. Just because bread is brown and has specks of something in it, does not mean it is whole grain. Whole grains (and foods made from them) consist of the entire grain seed, usually referred to as the kernel. The kernel is made of three components: the bran, the germ and the endosperm. Refined grains have neither the bran nor the germ, which means that most of the B vitamins, certain minerals and the fiber have been stripped from them. In enriched products, some of the B vitamins are added back. All grains are chiefly carbohydrates, but generally whole-grain cereals have three to seven times more fiber to a serving than refined cereals. When the grain has been refined, destroying much of the fiber, the carbohydrates turn to glucose quickly and enter the bloodstream. In whole grains, with their fiber intact, carbohydrates are not absorbed quickly. This helps to regulate blood sugar, increase satiety and delay the return of hunger. That is why low-carb food labels emphasize the terms ''effective carbs'' or ''net carbs,'' meaning the number of remaining carbohydrates after fiber has been subtracted from the total. Being satiated is the point. Because, no matter the source, calories count: the only way to lose weight is to eat fewer calories than you burn up. Food manufacturers do not make it easy to figure out which grains are whole and which are not. Color is no clue: brown bread may contain molasses or caramel food coloring, but no fiber. Some whole grains, like oats, are light in color. Terms like multigrain, cracked wheat, seven grain, stone-ground, 100 percent wheat, enriched flour and degerminated cornmeal are not whole grain. Pumpernickel is made with rye and wheat flours, but they are seldom whole grain. The list of whole grains, however, is long. Some of them are well known in this country: whole wheat (wheat berries), bulgur wheat, whole oats and oatmeal, whole rye, barley, buckwheat (kasha or buckwheat groats), whole corn and nondegermed cornmeal, brown, wild and other whole rices and popcorn. (Yes, popcorn.) Others are little used here: grano (lightly pearled wheat), farro (another form of wheat), kamut, quinoa, amaranth, millet, sorghum, spelt (similar to farro) teff and triticale. A thorough discussion of each kind of whole grain may be found at www.foodsubs.com. Botanically, a few of these grains are not real cereals -- amaranth, buckwheat and quinoa -- but only botanists are likely to notice. The healthiest cereal has a label that says 100 percent whole grain. For a cereal to be high in whole grain, the first ingredient must be whole wheat, whole rye or the like. The second best products are those that contain at least 51 percent whole grain ingredients. For all of those, the Food and Drug Administration permits a health claim related to the reduction of risk of heart disease. While the 2000 dietary guidelines, a joint effort of the Agriculture Department and the Health and Human Services Department, recommend ''a variety of grains daily, especially whole grains,'' it is not until Page 20 of the guidelines brochure that the reader learns why whole grains are better than refined grains. Even less helpful than the dietary guidelines, with which few people come in contact, is the food pyramid, the triangle that is generally recognized by Americans as a nutrition guide and is found on packages of food and in marketing and advertising. Even though grains make up the base of the pyramid, the phrase ''whole grains'' is nowhere to be found on it. So any refined product, whether it is white bread or white rice, can use the pyramid to proclaim its health benefits. Now the committee at Health and Human Services responsible for the new dietary guidelines, due out at the beginning of next year, appears to be ready to put more emphasis on whole grains. There is pretty good science to back that decision. A number of studies show that in addition to making you feel fuller on fewer calories, the fiber in whole grains (along with fruits and vegetables) may reduce the risk of cancer, heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure and stroke. ''The committee has discussed recommending that most Americans increase their intake of whole grains,'' said Kathryn McMurry, the co-executive secretary of the dietary guidelines advisory committee. ''One of the bases for recommending whole grains is that they are naturally a good source of dietary fiber, which has many health benefits. Generally, food sources of fiber also contain other nutrients that promote health,'' like vitamins, minerals, antioxidants and phytochemicals (protective plant substances). The base of ''the healthy eating pyramid,'' produced by the Harvard School of Public Health, is whole grains. Refined grains are at the top of the pyramid, along with red meat butter and sweets. According to the National Academy of Sciences, men 50 and younger should consume 38 grams of fiber a day; women, 25 grams; men over 50, 30 grams; and women, 21 grams. Current recommendations are for 20 to 35 grams of fiber a day, but the average American eats only 5 to 13. It is true that whole grains take longer to cook than refined grains, but it is often only 20 minutes. For those that take longer, soaking will cut down considerably on the cooking time. If brown rice, for example, which ordinarily takes about 45 minutes to cook, is soaked overnight, or at least two hours, it will cook in 17 minutes, the same time as long-grain white rice. I soaked farro, that marvelous firm-textured Italian grain with the delicately nutty flavor, overnight, and it cooked in 10 minutes.

Subject: Bad News Continues to Plague Pfizer From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:35:29 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/business/30pfizer.html?ex=1285732800&en=b16e1c6c6cb0a6ef&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 Bad News Continues to Plague Pfizer Shares By ALEX BERENSON Pfizer, the world's largest drug company, is having a bad year. A lawsuit filed on Wednesday against Pfizer claiming that it oversold the benefits of its anticholesterol medicine Lipitor is only the latest hurdle facing the company as it tries to get its sales back on track and regain Wall Street's affection. Its stock is near an eight-year low, as investors nervously await a decision in a patent lawsuit that could open Lipitor, the world's top-selling drug with sales of $11 billion last year, to generic competition by 2007 - four years before Pfizer had planned. Adding to the company's woes, the Food and Drug Administration this month rejected two drugs from Pfizer, Oporia, an osteoporosis treatment, and Dynastat, an injectable painkiller. Analysts are sharply split on the prospects for another new Pfizer medicine that an F.D.A. advisory panel has recommended for approval, Exubera, a type of insulin that can be inhaled rather than injected. Even though Pfizer spends more than $7 billion annually on research, analysts say its drug pipeline seems weak. 'It has been very difficult for Pfizer to develop drugs,' said Michael Krensavage, an analyst at Raymond James. 'It has suffered disappointment after disappointment.' But Pfizer badly needs to get new medicines to market to replace sales it is losing to generic competitors. Two of its four largest-selling drugs, the blood pressure drug Norvasc and the antidepressant Zoloft, will be opened to inexpensive generic competition by 2007. A third, the painkiller Celebrex, has been badly hurt by concerns that it may increase the risk of heart attacks, with prescriptions down 40 percent from last year, before Merck stopped selling Vioxx, a similar drug. As a result, Pfizer is heavily dependent on Lipitor, which analysts estimate will make up 30 percent of its sales by 2008. Pfizer remains highly profitable, with earnings of roughly $14 billion last year on sales of $52 billion. But with its sales under pressure, Pfizer said in April that it would cut annual costs by $4 billion. Almost six months later, Pfizer has failed to provide specifics of where the cuts will come. The company's vagueness has led to anxiety inside the company's sales force and questions from investors about whether Pfizer's chairman, Henry A. McKinnell Jr., promised deeper cost cuts than he can deliver without hurting sales. For the third consecutive year, Pfizer is asking investors to ignore huge one-time charges and instead view its profits by nonstandard accounting measures. The string of bad news has pummeled Pfizer's stock. In the last three months, Pfizer's shares have fallen about 9 percent. The long-term picture is grimmer. Since peaking in July 2000, Pfizer has fallen almost 50 percent, and its shares now trade near their lowest level since early 1998. Once a Wall Street highflier, Pfizer now trades at less than 13 times its expected earnings for 2006, less than the average company in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Shares of Pfizer rose 23 cents, to $25.09 yesterday. Paul Fitzhenry, a spokesman, said that Pfizer had expected 2005 to be a difficult year as the company made a transition from older drugs like Norvasc to newer remedies including Lyrica, a painkiller. But he said that Pfizer thought its pipeline of potential new drugs was improving and that its cost-cutting efforts, including unspecified layoffs, remained on track. 'There is a wait-and-see attitude on the part of many observers,' Mr. Fitzhenry said. 'But we believe there have been some bright spots.' And Pfizer does have some supporters among analysts, who argue that Lipitor can grow enough to make up for the patent expirations and that Exubera, along with Lyrica and late-stage cancer drugs, may be surprisingly successful. 'They've made some progress with their pipeline,' said Robert C. Hazlett, an analyst for SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. 'Combined with Lyrica and Exubera, and solid Lipitor growth - that can lead to fairly solid growth and a cheap stock.' But other analysts say that the stock may not be as cheap as it seems, especially with the Lipitor patent lawsuit hanging over the company. The federal lawsuit, brought by Ranbaxy, an Indian drug company, claims that two pivotal patents on Lipitor are invalid. If Ranbaxy wins, Pfizer could face generic competition on Lipitor the year after next, instead of in 2011 if the patents are upheld. Some analysts have predicted that Ranbaxy may have at least a 50 percent chance of winning the case, which was tried before Judge Joseph Farnan of United States District Court in Delaware in December, with a decision expected shortly. A loss in the Lipitor case would devastate Pfizer's profits, said Scott Henry, a drug analyst at Oppenheimer & Company. The drug's sales are expected to top $12 billion this year, almost one-quarter of Pfizer's total sales and an even bigger portion of its profits. Mr. Henry estimated that Lipitor's worldwide sales would produce almost $9 billion in after-tax profits for Pfizer in 2007, or $1.20 a share - more than half of Pfizer's estimated profits that year. Sales of Lipitor in the United States will account for about $5 billion in profits, or 74 cents a share, Mr. Henry said. Those figures may actually underestimate Lipitor's importance to Pfizer. The company is spending at least $800 million on trials of a new medicine that combines Lipitor, which lowers so-called bad cholesterol, with a new drug called torcetrapib that raises so-called good cholesterol. Pfizer has said it plans to sell torcetrapib only in combination with Lipitor. Analysts say the company hopes to persuade many of the people who now take Lipitor to switch to the combination pill instead of taking the cheaper generic version of Lipitor after the patent expires. But Pfizer will need years to make the combination pill a standard treatment for cholesterol, analysts say. If Ranbaxy wins its patent challenge and generic Lipitor is available before Pfizer can win F.D.A. approval for the combination pill, many patients may never switch to the combination. And then there is the lawsuit filed Wednesday against Pfizer over Lipitor. The suit, filed by the Teamsters union and a consumer group, claims that Pfizer marketed Lipitor to women and people over 65, who the lawsuit says have not been proved to benefit from lower cholesterol. The lawsuit is probably a long shot, since many cardiologists say that Lipitor and similar anticholesterol medicines should actually be used even more widely than they are. But it does illustrate the challenges that Pfizer faces as it seeks to expand Lipitor's already enormous sales.

Subject: Nest Egg or One-Armed Bandit? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:21:40 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/15/garden/15turf.html?ex=1284436800&en=ba1b89659d0e6e0f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 15, 2005 Nest Egg or One-Armed Bandit? By MOTOKO RICH TO look at them now, Warren and Kimlyn Preis appear to have hit the real estate jackpot. They paid $425,000 for their current house in Chicago in 1998, and today, Mr. Preis said, it is worth more than double that. The Preises also know what it is like to hit a losing streak: 15 years ago they were stuck paying two mortgages for more than a year after they bought a new apartment but could find no takers for their old one. When the old place finally sold, Mr. Preis said, he barely cleared a profit even though he had owned it for 12 years. Yet he is convinced that 'real estate is the cat's meow,' and is looking to buy an investment property. 'It will always work out because it will go through the bad cycle and return to the good cycle, and when it returns, it usually returns in a grand manner, as you see it now,' he said. In markets where house prices have climbed the most, the boom of the last decade has created a lot of wealth, and with it a sense of collective amnesia. It afflicts not only those who bought in recent years and have never known anything but price increases, but also those who have been burned before. 'Why do people go back to Vegas?' asked Donna Olshan, a broker in Manhattan. 'They love to gamble. And people love real estate. They think that it isn't going to happen again and they go back in it.' Even as homeowners in several markets are trying to interpret mixed signals about whether prices and sales are peaking, the willful embrace of real estate persists as buyers overlook steep drops in prices in the early 1990's - by as much as 22 percent in Los Angeles and nearly 47 percent in Manhattan. In some respects, it is not hard to understand why even those who lost money have largely expunged their memories of past stumbles: many have since recovered, and have amply made up for previous losses with recent gains. But back then, the downturn was severe. More than half of the people who bought co-ops and condos in Manhattan in 1986 or later and sold between 1990 and 1995 received less than what they paid for them, said Jonathan Miller, a real estate appraiser. Sellers in some areas of California felt similar pain. In 1994, when Ralph Houghton, a mortgage broker, took a new job near Denver, he and his wife tried to sell the three-bedroom house they had built in Running Springs, Calif., a small community east of Los Angeles near the San Bernadino Mountains, six years earlier. With no offers, they almost fell behind on their mortgage payments. After a year of letting the house stand vacant, Mr. Houghton cut his losses and transferred the house's deed to one of his wife's colleagues, who took over the mortgage payments. Despite his experience in California, Mr. Houghton, who bought a house in a Denver suburb for $180,000, refinanced and added another $60,000 to his loan to cover renovations and the start-up costs of his own mortgage business. 'We're all human,' he said. 'We need money.' He said he is not worried because he figures the house is now worth about $350,000. Economists are divided as to whether prices are poised to slide again. Inventories of homes for sale are building in places like San Diego, and last month, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, said that 'home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease.' In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, economists are debating whether the Fed will raise or cut rates to deal with the increased oil prices and other short-term effects of the storm. If rates go down, that could prolong the housing boom, but if not, some economists say, the market is topping out. For anxious homeowners wondering just how bad it could get if the bubble bursts this time, the lessons of the not-so-distant past can provide both caution and comfort. Much like in the last five years, homebuyers in the latter half of the 1980's got drunk on real estate. Bidding wars were common, and people rushed to close deals, convinced that prices were inexorably rising. But around 1990, as the defense industry contracted in Southern California and a recession hit the Northeast, real estate prices in those places started to tumble. Homeowners who had been counting on appreciation to finance college educations or retirement saw their nest eggs wiped out. Desperate sellers offered to pay real estate agents commissions of 8 or even 10 percent. The proportion of mortgages in foreclosure more than doubled between 1990 and 1992 in California, Massachusetts and New York. 'I couldn't sell anything to save my life,' said Deanna Kory, a broker with the Corcoran Group in Manhattan, who said she went six months in 1990 without selling a single apartment. Some sellers simply pulled their homes off the market, but those who needed to divest because of a job relocation, a divorce or a new child often took a hit. In California, 26 percent of all homes sold between 1990 and 1995 went for less than the owners had originally paid, according to John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick Information Systems in San Diego. In Manhattan, David Dreyfuss got caught in the real estate downdraft when he and his wife, Lauren, tried to sell the one-bedroom prewar co-op that Mr. Dreyfuss had bought on East 57th Street for $210,000 in 1985. Expecting their first child in 1990, the couple put the apartment on the market for $300,000, but were offered nothing close to that price. The apartment sat on the market for more than a year. Mr. Dreyfuss recalled how difficult it was to keep the place in 'showroom condition' with a small baby. It finally sold, in 1991, for $160,000. 'It was a vivid lesson of the cyclicality of the market,' Mr. Dreyfuss said. The family moved to Rowayton, Conn., where they rented for a year and a half before buying a four-bedroom saltbox house in 1994. The cycle started to move in their favor when, three years later, they sold it for a hefty profit and upgraded to a four-bedroom house in Westport, adding a pool, another bedroom and an in-law suite. Today, Mr. Dreyfuss said, the house is worth 50 percent more than they have invested in it. But his losses in 1991 have given him pause. Recently retired from the marketing company he founded, Mr. Dreyfuss, 51, said he had considered investing in houses for empty nesters. But he has decided against it. 'I think a couple of years from now we'll see that right about now is the top of the market,' he said. Certainly, some homeowners lost money only on paper because they never sold when prices were low. 'Some of the funny money went away for a while,' said Karl E. Case, an economist at Wellesley College. 'Even people who bought at the peak, by 1995 they were made whole and then some.' The housing bust was a godsend for some people, of course. In the late 1980's, Janice Brand was renting an apartment in the Beacon Hill neighborhood of Boston. 'I thought I was completely priced out of the market,' she said. But in 1993, as prices fell, she found a two-bedroom apartment in the Charlestown neighborhood for less than $200,000. Seven years later, by then married, Ms. Brand and her husband, Robert Grady, were able to sell the place for nearly double what she paid and to trade up to a house on two acres on the North Shore of Massachusetts. Low-income buyers were also able to enter the market. Thomas Callahan, executive director of the Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance, said that when prices cooled between 1991 and 1996 in the Boston area, many people bought their first houses. 'We sometimes call ourselves cheerleaders for the next real estate depression,' Mr. Callahan said. 'Except we have thousands of successful homeowners who have purchased, so obviously a crash would hurt many of them.'

Subject: Bargains in a Flash From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:08:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/29/technology/circuits/29flash.html?ex=1285646400&en=34d4befdf1c41d63&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 29, 2005 Bargains in a Flash By DAMON DARLIN Apple Computer got a bargain on the memory chips that make its new iPod Nano music players so slim. And in doing so, Apple has thrown the market for flash memory into a tizzy: forcing prices up for other manufacturers and driving prices down for consumers. Flash memory (or more precisely, NAND flash memory chips) stores data on a semiconductor. Most consumers use it in the form of U.S.B. flash drives to ferry data from one PC to another, or as memory cards that record hundreds of photos in digital cameras. Apple uses flash memory as a substitute for a hard disk drive so it can make its music player only a quarter-inch thick. (NAND is an industry term that refers to a form of logic gate programmed on the semiconductor.) No analyst seems to know for sure what Apple paid Samsung Electronics for the memory chips; estimates range from $85 to $120 for a four-gigabyte chip that goes into a $250 Nano, or about a 30 percent discount in exchange for buying 40 percent of Samsung's output this year. But that big purchase has tightened supplies of flash memory chips for everyone else. The repercussions have been felt by about 200 minor makers of MP3 players in Asia, or about half the industry, which have gone out of business because they cannot get parts, said Nam Hyung Kim, principal analyst at the iSuppli Corporation, a market analysis firm that specializes in semiconductors. Manufacturers' prices are starting to rise even though historically the price of flash memory has fallen about 40 percent a year. Don Barnetson, Samsung Semiconductor's associate director of marketing for flash memory, said, 'We are extremely constrained.' The outlook for consumers, conversely, is that prices will continue to fall for U.S.B. flash drives, memory cards and MP3 players. That is partly because of the iPod Nano. Like its earlier incarnation, the iPod Shuffle, the Nano can be used like a U.S.B. flash drive to move an Excel file or a PowerPoint demonstration from one computer to another. Consumers who know that may choose to forgo buying the generic fob for the Nano. 'A four-gigabyte flash drive isn't stylish and trendy, and you can't use it to play music,' said Joe Unsworth, a senior analyst at Gartner, the technology research firm. A result, Mr. Unsworth said, is a sudden drop in the retail price of two- and four-gigabyte flash drives. Those devices had been going for around $300 for the four-gigabyte, but now must undercut the Nano or risk losing sales to it. While no analyst will predict prices for iPods, they expect Samsung to continue to stimulate demand for this technology with more discounts for big customers. Consumers have been conditioned to expect ever-lower prices for flash drives and memory cards. They also have become accustomed to watching for promotions of drive and card makers like SanDisk, Lexar or Viking that are fighting for shelf space - or the promotions of retailers using the devices as loss leaders to attract customers. Shoppers often have a fixed budget for memory and try to get as much as they can for a particular price. The sweet spot for consumers had been 512-megabyte cards and drives, but that has quickly shifted up to one-gigabyte devices in the last month. A 512-megabyte memory card can sell for as little as $34, though it is generally about $50. A careful shopper can easily find twice as much memory, a one-gigabyte card, for just a bit more, about $65. But increasingly it can be found for as little as $50, only marginally more than the wholesale price of about $48. 'Unlike any other semiconductor, we have tremendous price elasticity,' said Mr. Barnetson of Samsung, which controls about 60 percent of the market for flash memory. 'A small adjustment in price allows us to quickly soak up demand.' The trick for consumers is to think in ratios. If the price of a card is less than twice the typical price for the next smaller size, it is a probably a good deal. A shopping comparison site like Cnet.com or Shopping.com will quickly indicate the range of prices. Analysts expect that the price of flash memory will continue to fall at its historic rate as Samsung, Toshiba and other makers expand their factories or shift other chip production lines to flash memory. As makers get more efficient at making the chips, they are able to drive down costs and drop prices to further stimulate demand. Margins for the chip makers are quite healthy. Mr. Kim of iSuppli says that even with the Apple discount, Samsung's operating profit margin for flash memory is about 45 percent, high enough to attract several chip makers to set up production lines. Flash memory is showing up in more places. It is being used in Sony's PlayStation Portable game machine to play music and videos. Some games have additional levels of play available on flash cards. Last week, a consortium of flash memory makers announced a new flash drive technology, U3, that allows programs and system settings, as well as data, to be carried around on a flash drive to any PC. Most of all, the flash memory makers have their eye on cellphones. As those devices gradually add more functions, like playing music and video or mapping by global positioning satellite, they will demand ever greater amounts of data storage. And tough competition from tiny hard disk drives means consumers will be enjoying lower prices for some time to come. The growing popularity of flash memory will not doom the alternative storage device, the one-inch hard disk drive, said William D. Watkins, president and chief executive of Seagate Technology, a maker of those tiny drives. He wants his devices to be the storage of choice in cellphones and other hand-held devices that will soon be demanding 20 to 30 gigabytes of storage. For now, he has the price advantage. Mr. Watkins points out that a four-gigabyte hard drive costs about $50, considerably less than comparable flash memory - even when discounted heavily. But hard drive makers have the price advantage only at two gigabytes or more. Smaller amounts of storage are far cheaper in flash memory. Every year, flash gains the price advantage in the next larger size; in 2006, four-gigabyte flash memory cards will be cheaper than four-gigabyte hard drives. All the while, Seagate will be trying to make those one-inch drives even thinner as Mr. Watkins, like millions of consumers, watches the price of flash memory fall. 'Never underestimate price,' he said.

Subject: There's Promise in a Pill From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:07:15 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/books/30book.html?ex=1285732800&en=0281e0e470211eb9&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 Tense? Lonely? There's Promise in a Pill By MICHIKO KAKUTANI In his hilarious stand-up routine, Chris Rock talks about the ubiquitous television drug commercials that 'keep naming symptoms till they get one that' the viewer's got. Sometimes, he says, the ads don't even tell you what the pill does: 'You see a lady on a horse or a man in a tub, and they just keep naming symptoms: 'Are you depressed?' 'Are you lonely?' 'Do your teeth hurt?' ' He adds that one commercial he saw went, 'Do you go to bed at night and wake up in the morning?' 'They got that one!' he says. 'I got that. I'm sick. I need that pill!' Mr. Rock's observations are almost too close to the actual truth to be considered satire, as Greg Critser's provocative new book, 'Generation RX,' makes clear. Indeed, baby boomers and their offspring have become the most medicated generation ever, devoted consumers from cradle to grave of every manner of pharmaceutical imaginable - pills that not only cure real diseases, but that also promise, in Mr. Critser's words, to 'do everything from guarding us against our excesses of drink, food and tobacco, to increasing our children's performance at school, to jump-starting our own productivity at work, to extending our very time on this mortal coil.' Boomers, who grew up using drugs recreationally, have become a generation that lives almost full time in the Valley of the Dolls: bombarded by direct-to-consumer ads, they are happy to self-medicate, and their cost-conscious H.M.O.'s are happy to substitute antidepressants for expensive talk therapy, prescriptions for repeated doctor visits. Little wonder, then, that drug use - of the legal sort - has soared. Americans routinely take pills for high cholesterol and high blood pressure, and they also routinely take pills to sleep, pills to focus, pills to chill and pills to perk up, pills for more sex and pills for less stress. Mr. Critser notes that 'the average number of prescriptions per person, annually, in 1993 was seven,' but had risen to 11 by 2000, and 12 in 2004. 'The total number of annual prescriptions in the United States now stands at about three billion,' he writes. 'The cost per year? About $180 billion, headed to an estimated $414 billion by 2011.' He adds that spending on all forms of drugs to treat childhood and adolescent behavioral disorders rose by 77 percent between 2000 and 2003, 'with 65 percent of all children on such drugs taking at least one antidepressant.' On college campuses, the portion of students who went to health centers and 'who were already taking psych meds went from 7 percent in 1992 to 18 percent in 2000.' There is little in 'Generation RX' that hasn't been reported before - in the flurry of articles about the pharmaceutical business, which appeared in the wake of the Vioxx recall last fall, or in the slew of recent books by experts like Marcia Angell ('The Truth About the Drug Companies'), Jerry Avorn ('Powerful Medicines') and John Abramson ('Overdosed America'). What Mr. Critser has done in these pages is synthesize a lot of information and reserve it to the reader in an accessible, easily digested form - much as he did with information about obesity in his 2003 book, 'Fat Land.' While his prose sometimes buckles from his efforts to be chatty and conversational - at one point, he describes the liver, which can regenerate itself, as 'a kind of Donald Trump of the human body' - he does a lucid job conveying the dramatic ways in which the development and marketing of pharmaceuticals have changed over the last two decades and the equally dramatic and often disturbing consequences of this phenomenon. Like Ms. Angell in 'The Truth About the Drug Companies,' Mr. Critser traces the big changes in the drug business back to what he calls 'newly loosened and speeded-up regulatory processes' that began with the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980, which 'made it easier for the industry to use research discoveries that originated in publicly funded laboratories,' and the Hatch-Waxman Act of 1984, which made it easier for cheaper generics to find their way to the market but also made it easier for drug companies to get extensions on their monopolies. As for the Prescription Drug User Fee Act, passed in 1992, Mr. Critser says it in effect resulted in 'a clientized' Food and Drug Administration, by allowing companies to pay 'user fees' to expedite the reviews of new drugs. In recent years, Mr. Critser goes on, the two great buffers between Big Pharma and the public have grown increasingly porous. The government, besieged by pharmaceutical lobbyists, has grown more and more accommodating toward drug companies, while doctors - coping with growing workloads, demanding patients and the strictures of managed care - have started to change their prescription-writing habits. Needless to say, Big Pharma has done everything it can to promote its own interests: Mr. Critser estimates that the business spends 'between $8,000 and $15,000 annually per physician to sell its wares,' adding that it also pays for some 90 percent of all continuing medical education classes. At the same time, drug companies have employed a host of other strategies to maximize sales and profits: focusing on the development of drugs for chronic conditions and drugs with large patient populations; enlarging the patient base for existing drugs by selling them as cures for related disorders (Paxil, for instance, eventually won approval for treating depression, panic disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder and social anxiety disorder); and promoting drugs like Viagra as 'quality of life' products that patients would ask their doctors to prescribe. Although Mr. Critser skims a little too briefly over the stories of specific drugs like Vioxx and Seldane that have been recalled for serious safety reasons, he does an effective job of showing why the F.D.A.'s speeded-up review process, combined with Big Pharma's aggressive pushing of its drugs, has led to such tragic cases. He also raises important questions about the possible damage that the long-term use of pharmaceuticals may cause - from liver damage to cascading drug interactions to the more intangible psychological effects of young people relying on antidepressants and attention-deficit-disorder drugs to cope with the stresses of life. 'The principal forces that have so deeply pharmaceuticalized American life are hardly likely to abate anytime soon,' he writes. 'Managed care over the next decades will continue to depend heavily upon pills as a proxy for physician care. Cost-conscious employers and insurers will make sure of that. As will Wall Street - particularly as baby boomers begin to cash in their retirement funds, which have been floating on that nice, easy cushion of double-digit pharmaceutical company returns for two decades. The average pharma C.E.O. will feel the heat and continue to do what he has been doing, only faster.'

Subject: Way North of the Border From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:05:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/business/30immigrants.html?ex=1285732800&en=187ba253dbcaa2de&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 Way North of the Border By EDUARDO PORTER and ELISABETH MALKIN ST. PAUL - At first blush, Mexico's newest American consulate might appear out of place. Far from the Mexican border, this prosperous state capital, along with Minneapolis and the surrounding suburbs, form a sprawling metropolis with Scandinavian overtones. Yet by the time the Mexican government opened its 46th consulate in the United States here in June, it was already a latecomer to a bustling Mexican-American community that includes, according to consular officials, 22 churches offering services in Spanish, 9 Spanish-language newspapers, 3 tortilla makers and 9 Hispanic - mostly Mexican - soccer leagues. 'We are responding to the needs of the Mexican community,' said Nathan Wolf, the new consul. 'We are just following the movement of people.' The location of Mexico's latest American consulate provides a stark illustration of how economically improving groups of Mexican immigrants are establishing themselves across the country, in ways that experts say point to the futility of current attempts to plug the border and stem the flow of illegal migrants in search of a better life. [Indeed, while overall migration to the United States peaked in 2000, according to a new study by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center, the number of illegal immigrants - mostly from Mexico - rose sharply last year after three years of decline that started with the 2001 recession.] When the governors of New Mexico and Arizona declared states of emergency in August and called on the federal government to help stop the tide of illegal immigrants coming across the border, their move did nothing to interrupt the consulate's busy preparations to start four Mexican 'hometown associations,' linking immigrants with their home states. 'They call Minneapolis the new Axochiapan,' said Ramiro Hernández, a successful businessman who arrived in the United States illegally 20 years ago from Axochiapan, a small town in the central Mexican state of Morelos. 'Ninety percent of the population there has people over here. Kids come here as soon as they come of age.' The 2000 census recorded 41,600 Mexican-born people in Minnesota, up from 3,500 counted in 1990. Locals in Minneapolis say that new arrivals have multiplied even faster over the last five years, coming from Mexico and from Mexican hubs in the United States, notably Chicago. 'We think there are around 200,000,' Mr. Wolf said. A strong local economy helps pull Mexicans from steamy Morelos to the chilly Minnesota plain. The state's unemployment rate is among the lowest in the nation; at 3.3 percent, the jobless rate for Minneapolis-St. Paul is the lowest among big metropolitan areas. The forces driving migrants into the United States are even broader, however, and are increasing the supply of working-age Mexicans willing to do whatever it takes to cross the border. 'Immigration trends are virtually unaffected by spending on border enforcement,' said J. Edward Taylor, a professor at the University of California, Davis, who has surveyed migrants in Mexico about their experiences. 'It means the things driving migration are too big to be counteracted by enforcement.' Demography plays the biggest role. The Mexican government projects that the 11- to 40-year-old population - the prime age for migration - will continue to grow over the next decade, by roughly 6 percent, to 59 million people, before starting to decline over the subsequent 35 years as Mexico ages. Economic dynamics also contribute to the flow. Mexico's backward rural economy, which produces only 5 percent of Mexico's output but employs more than a fifth of its labor force of 40 million, is poised to remain a plentiful source of migrants. 'There's an unexpectedly high share of workers still in agriculture,' Professor Taylor said. 'That's like a fault line.' While Mexican demographics are pushing, American demand for cheap labor is pulling just as hard. Gordon H. Hanson, an economics professor at the University of California, San Diego, argues the immigration boom of the last 20 years resulted from two factors: the growth in the Mexican working-age population and the decline in high school dropout rates in the United States, which reduced the domestic supply of low-skilled workers. 'It was a match made in heaven,' he said. A Mexican government agency, the National Population Council, forecasts that about 400,000 Mexicans will migrate to the United States every year for the next decade and that the flow should then decline gradually to an estimated 325,000 a year by 2050. Jeffrey S. Passel, a demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, argues that at least in the near term, even this estimate seems low. To try to stem the flow, the United States government has increased annual spending on border policing in the last 10 years by more than fivefold in real terms. The Border Patrol has swollen to 10,000 agents, equipped with sensors and cameras, planes and drones. Yet if the border has become tougher, so, too, have migrants. These days, only a third make it into the United States on their first try, according to a survey by the Center for Comparative Immigration Studies of the University of California, San Diego. But 59 percent make it across on their second to fifth attempts. Only 8 percent give up and go home. 'Once I was caught five times,' said Arnulfo Pliego, 44, a migrant from Axochiapan who first came to the United States in 1989 and has shuttled between Morelos and Minnesota for the last nine years. 'I said to myself, 'I must pass, I must pass,' and I passed.' From 1991 to 1994, some 450,000 illegal immigrants were coming to the United States annually, mostly from Mexico. In the first four years of this decade, the average exceeded 600,000, according to the Pew Hispanic Center report. Mr. Passel estimates that the Mexican-born population in the United States has swollen to 11 million people, some 60 percent of them here illegally. 'If you look at the numbers,' he said, 'it seems that anybody that wants to get in does.' Indeed, the stepped-up border policing is deterring immigrants from returning home and encouraging them to settle in the United States indefinitely. Meanwhile, the sheer numbers provide new incentives to migrate, as strong networks of immigrants emerge, linking communities on both sides of the border, making migration somewhat easier and effectively transforming it to a routine. Consider Rosalba Cano. When she followed her husband north, leaving Axochiapan with her 2-year-old child 10 years ago, there were very few of her compatriots in Minneapolis. 'I only came because my husband said he was leaving and wouldn't be back in a while,' said Ms. Cano, 33, a former preschool teacher. 'I was all alone here for a long time.' But then one of Ms. Cano's sisters arrived, followed by her brother and a couple of cousins. She now has three uncles in town. Ms. Cano's husband, Osvaldo García, a former farmworker from Axochiapan, has two brothers and two sisters living in the Twin Cities. The latest arrival is Ms. Cano's sister-in-law, Obsidiana Enríquez Navarro, 25, who quit her job with the Axochiapan municipal government last year, paid a smuggler $2,000 to get her across the border, then trudged through the Arizona desert before catching transportation to Minneapolis. There are so many men from Axochiapan in the area that the village priest came to visit. 'Father Miguel came to look for the husbands and take them back, but he didn't manage to get any,' Ms. Enríquez Navarro said. Migration is leaving a deep mark on Axochiapan, a county seat at the center of a cluster of villages with a population of some 30,000. In one village, Quebrantadero, people talk of closing the primary school because there are so few young children left. In Tlalayo, another village, the streets are paved and lined with two-story concrete houses, the product of a construction boomlet financed by remittances from the United States. But with crop prices low and government subsidies limited, the traditional agricultural economy has withered, leaving only elderly men to till the fields. Municipal officials in Axochiapan estimate that at least a third of the population has moved. The mayor wants to honor the migrants with a 10-foot statue of a man carrying a bag and leaving his wife and two children behind. That may seem paradoxical but he has his reasons. 'I realize that Mexico has moved ahead thanks to remittances,' said the mayor, Leopoldo Rodríguez Galarza. 'In part, they have helped reduce poverty.' The human flow is changing the Twin Cities, too. East Lake Street in Minneapolis, formerly gang-ridden and drug-infested, has become a lively Mexican commercial center. Mr. Hernández, who is now a legal resident in the United States, first went into business bringing in Mexican cuts of meat like the salt-cured cecina steak and the heavily spiced pork al pastor from Chicago, and Mexican videos he bought from a bankrupt Blockbuster in California. He now owns several jewelry shops, a money remittance business, three cowboy-wear stores and a video-rental shop. He is a partner in a local Spanish-language radio station and a supermarket. And in an echo of the planned Axochiapan monument, he is working with other local community leaders to persuade the governor of Morelos to donate a statue of Emiliano Zapata, the Mexican revolutionary hero. These cross-border connections have become so strong, officials say, that nothing is likely to stop Axochiapan's citizens from continuing to seek jobs in the Twin Cities. In the Cano-García household, Mr. García earns $15 an hour driving a dump truck for a landscaping business and Ms. Cano makes $11 an hour as a supervisor at a taco grill. It is money they could never dream of earning in Mexico. With two more children, they now own a house, a small duplex in a leafy neighborhood across from a park. The state government has provided extensive help to care for their second son, who is autistic. 'I am very happy with Minnesota,' Ms. Cano said. 'I have done very well here. It's the best for the future of my children.' Meanwhile, the Mexican government is making plans for its next consulate. According to Mr. Wolf, it should open in Little Rock, Ark., before the end of the year.

Subject: Heat Costs Expected to Surge From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 10:04:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/business/30fuel.html?ex=1285732800&en=e8bd58864ebca451&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 Heat Costs Expected to Surge By JAD MOUAWAD Natural gas prices set a record yesterday, pointing to sharply higher heating bills for a majority of Americans this winter and soaring costs for makers of plastics and chemicals, which use natural gas as their main fuel and raw material. Since the beginning of the summer, the price of natural gas has doubled. But unlike crude oil or gasoline, whose recent price increases have been widely felt by most Americans, the price surge in natural gas - the most popular source for home heating across the colder regions of the country - has so far gone largely unnoticed. That is about to change as colder weather sets in. After the hot summer pushed up natural gas consumption by electricity companies, the prospect of a harsher winter than last year's on top of two devastating punches to the nation's energy hub on the Gulf Coast has led to a significant tightening of natural gas supplies. And unlike the situation with petroleum, which can be readily stored in bulk for long periods of time, there is no National Gas Reserve to turn to when shortages arise. 'It's still under most people's radar screen right now,' said Carl Neill, an analyst at Risk Management Inc., a natural gas consultant and brokerage firm in Chicago. 'The public has absolutely no idea how high prices are going to be this year. It's going to be mind-boggling.' According to recent estimates by the Energy Department, Americans are likely to pay roughly $400 more for their natural gas this winter than last year, with average bills jumping to $1,130. Many analysts, however, warn that these figures may prove too low and are likely to be updated when the government issues its winter price outlook next month. While commercial stockpiles of natural gas are currently above a five-year average, prices are now being driven by the uncertainties surrounding the impact of Hurricane Rita on energy installations in the Gulf of Mexico. Natural gas prices for November delivery closed at $14.196 a thousand cubic feet, a gain of 9.6 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude oil rose 44 cents and closed at $66.79 a barrel. Natural gas now costs more than three times its average of $4.70 from 2000 to 2005 and seven times the 1990's average price of $2 a thousand cubic feet. President Bush, who called on Americans this week to conserve gasoline by driving less, did not mention natural gas in his remarks. While high prices will increase the incentive to drill for more gas, there is little to restrain the market in the short term. Some government and industry officials are now warning consumers to expect higher heating bills. Guy F. Caruso, the administrator of the Energy Information Administration, which is part of the Energy Department, told the National Association for Business Economics in Chicago on Sunday that he did not expect natural gas prices to drop below $10 per thousand cubic feet this winter, and warned of 'substantial price increases this winter.' Only 20 percent of natural gas production in the gulf has been restored nearly a week after Hurricane Rita hit. The region supplies 10 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day, or 16 percent of what is used in homes, businesses, industries and power plants across the nation. On shore, dozens of gas-processing facilities, which act like refineries for natural gas, were disabled by the storm and remain closed, creating another bottleneck. The Henry Hub terminal for natural gas in Louisiana, the trading point for the Nymex gas spot contract, has been shut for more than a week. That prompted Nymex to declare 'force majeure' for September and October deliveries, meaning there is no guarantee the contracts will be fulfilled. Natural gas prices have been setting records since Hurricane Katrina pushed prices beyond $10.10 a thousand cubic feet for the first time. 'Call it supply constraints or whatever, we have a natural gas market that is tight,' said Chris McGill, the managing director for policy analysis at the American Gas Association. 'We're meeting demand but at significantly higher prices.' Gas suppliers will still be able to meet residential demands and most other uses. But some industrial companies might be briefly cut off from natural gas supplies this winter. 'We've had huge supply dislocations from the gulf and now the question becomes, Will supplies come back in time to meet winter demand?' said Owen Kean, an analyst at the American Chemistry Council. The United States produces about 80 percent of the natural gas it consumes. The rest is mostly imported by pipelines from Canada, with a small proportion, about 3 percent, shipped in as liquefied natural gas from North Africa and elsewhere. Even if Canada can export more gas to the United States, there are few other alternatives to make up for the loss in domestic gas supplies. 'Because we have little import capacity, the United States has a recipe to see very high natural gas prices very quickly,' said Kenneth B. Medlock, a research fellow in energy studies at the Baker Institute of Rice University. Households that rely on government assistance to pay bills could face an especially difficult winter. Congress has budgeted about $2 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or Liheap, for the 2006 fiscal year. But that is no more than last year, when costs were markedly lower. Families qualifying for the assistance would receive an average of $300 a year under the current allocation. Billy Jack Gregg, a state consumer advocate in West Virginia, said that was expected to fall well short of the estimated $600 to $700 increase that many families on the East Coast and Midwest will face this winter. For months, Tim Thompson, the municipal administrator for the town of Lewisport, Ky., has been watching natural gas prices go up. He is in charge of buying the town's yearly supplies and he kept waiting for an opportune time to lock in a better price. 'Prices used to fluctuate pennies from year to year,' Mr. Thompson said. 'Now, I have to knock on doors and try to figure out how much people will be able to pay. This is going to be very hard on ordinary folks.'

Subject: That Famous Equation and You From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 13:09:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/opinion/30greene.html?ex=1285732800&en=75072acd6902749d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 That Famous Equation and You By BRIAN GREENE DURING the summer of 1905, while fulfilling his duties in the patent office in Bern, Switzerland, Albert Einstein was fiddling with a tantalizing outcome of the special theory of relativity he'd published in June. His new insight, at once simple and startling, led him to wonder whether 'the Lord might be laughing ... and leading me around by the nose.' But by September, confident in the result, Einstein wrote a three-page supplement to the June paper, publishing perhaps the most profound afterthought in the history of science. A hundred years ago this month, the final equation of his short article gave the world E = mc². In the century since, E = mc² has become the most recognized icon of the modern scientific era. Yet for all its symbolic worth, the equation's intimate presence in everyday life goes largely unnoticed. There is nothing you can do, not a move you can make, not a thought you can have, that doesn't tap directly into E = mc². Einstein's equation is constantly at work, providing an unseen hand that shapes the world into its familiar form. It's an equation that tells of matter, energy and a remarkable bridge between them. Before E = mc², scientists described matter using two distinct attributes: how much the matter weighed (its mass) and how much change the matter could exert on its environment (its energy). A 19th century physicist would say that a baseball resting on the ground has the same mass as a baseball speeding along at 100 miles per hour. The key difference between the two balls, the physicist would emphasize, is that the fast-moving baseball has more energy: if sent ricocheting through a china shop, for example, it would surely break more dishes than the ball at rest. And once the moving ball has done its damage and stopped, the 19th-century physicist would say that it has exhausted its capacity for exerting change and hence contains no energy. After E = mc², scientists realized that this reasoning, however sensible it once seemed, was deeply flawed. Mass and energy are not distinct. They are the same basic stuff packaged in forms that make them appear different. Just as solid ice can melt into liquid water, Einstein showed, mass is a frozen form of energy that can be converted into the more familiar energy of motion. The amount of energy (E) produced by the conversion is given by his formula: multiply the amount of mass converted (m) by the speed of light squared (c²). Since the speed of light is a few hundred million meters per second (fast enough to travel around the earth seven times in a single second), c² , in these familiar units, is a huge number, about 100,000,000,000,000,000. A little bit of mass can thus yield enormous energy. The destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was fueled by converting less than an ounce of matter into energy; the energy consumed by New York City in a month is less than that contained in the newspaper you're holding. Far from having no energy, the baseball that has come to rest on the china shop's floor contains enough energy to keep an average car running continuously at 65 m.p.h. for about 5,000 years. Before 1905, the common view of energy and matter thus resembled a man carrying around his money in a box of solid gold. After the man spends his last dollar, he thinks he's broke. But then someone alerts him to his miscalculation; a substantial part of his wealth is not what's in the box, but the box itself. Similarly, until Einstein's insight, everyone was aware that matter, by virtue of its motion or position, could possess energy. What everyone missed is the enormous energetic wealth contained in mass itself. The standard illustrations of Einstein's equation - bombs and power stations - have perpetuated a belief that E = mc² has a special association with nuclear reactions and is thus removed from ordinary activity. This isn't true. When you drive your car, E = mc² is at work. As the engine burns gasoline to produce energy in the form of motion, it does so by converting some of the gasoline's mass into energy, in accord with Einstein's formula. When you use your MP3 player, E = mc² is at work. As the player drains the battery to produce energy in the form of sound waves, it does so by converting some of the battery's mass into energy, as dictated by Einstein's formula. As you read this text, E = mc² is at work. The processes in the eye and brain, underlying perception and thought, rely on chemical reactions that interchange mass and energy, once again in accord with Einstein's formula. The point is that although E=mc² expresses the interchangeability of mass and energy, it doesn't single out any particular reaction for executing the conversion. The distinguishing feature of nuclear reactions, compared with the chemical reactions involved in burning gasoline or running a battery, is that they generate less waste and thus produce more energy - by a factor of roughly a million. And when it comes to energy, a factor of a million justifiably commands attention. But don't let the spectacle of E=mc² in nuclear reactions inure you to its calmer but thoroughly pervasive incarnations in everyday life. That's the content of Einstein's discovery. Why is it true? Einstein's derivation of E = mc² was wholly mathematical. I know his derivation, as does just about anyone who has taken a course in modern physics. Nevertheless, I consider my understanding of a result incomplete if I rely solely on the math. Instead, I've found that thorough understanding requires a mental image - an analogy or a story - that may sacrifice some precision but captures the essence of the result. Here's a story for E = mc². Two equally strong and skilled jousters, riding identical horses and gripping identical (blunt) lances, head toward each other at an identical speed. As they pass, each thrusts his lance across his breastplate toward his opponent, slamming blunt end into blunt end. Because they're equally matched, neither lance pushes farther than the other, and so the referee calls it a draw. This story contains the essence of Einstein's discovery. Let me explain. Einstein's first relativity paper, the one in June 1905, shattered the idea that time elapses identically for everyone. Instead, Einstein showed that if from your perspective someone is moving, you will see time elapsing slower for him than it does for you. Everything he does - sipping his coffee, turning his head, blinking his eyes - will appear in slow motion. This is hard to grasp because at everyday speeds the slowing is less than one part in a trillion and is thus imperceptibly small. Even so, using extraordinarily precise atomic clocks, scientists have repeatedly confirmed that it happens just as Einstein predicted. If we lived in a world where things routinely traveled near the speed of light, the slowing of time would be obvious. Let's see what the slowing of time means for the joust. To do so, think about the story not from the perspective of the referee, but instead imagine you are one of the jousters. From your perspective, it is your opponent - getting ever closer - who is moving. Imagine that he is approaching at nearly the speed of light so the slowing of all his movements - readying his joust, tightening his face - is obvious. When he shoves his lance toward you in slow motion, you naturally think he's no match for your swifter thrust; you expect to win. Yet we already know the outcome. The referee calls it a draw and no matter how strange relativity is, it can't change a draw into a win. After the match, you naturally wonder how your opponent's slowly thrusted lance hit with the same force as your own. There's only one answer. The force with which something hits depends not only on its speed but also on its mass. That's why you don't fear getting hit by a fast-moving Ping-Pong ball (tiny mass) but you do fear getting hit by a fast-moving Mack truck (big mass). Thus, the only explanation for how the slowly thrust lance hit with the same force as your own is that it's more massive. This is astonishing. The lances are identically constructed. Yet you conclude that one of them - the one that from your point of view is in motion, being carried toward you by your opponent on his galloping horse - is more massive than the other. That's the essence of Einstein's discovery. Energy of motion contributes to an object's mass. AS with the slowing of time, this is unfamiliar because at everyday speeds the effect is imperceptibly tiny. But if, from your viewpoint, your opponent were to approach at 99.99999999 percent of the speed of light, his lance would be about 70,000 times more massive than yours. Luckily, his thrusting speed would be 70,000 times slower than yours, and so the resulting force would equal your own. Once Einstein realized that mass and energy were convertible, getting the exact formula relating them - E = mc² - was a fairly basic exercise, requiring nothing more than high school algebra. His genius was not in the math; it was in his ability to see beyond centuries of misunderstanding and recognize that there was a connection between mass and energy at all. A little known fact about Einstein's September 1905 paper is that he didn't actually write E = mc²; he wrote the mathematically equivalent (though less euphonious) m = E/c², placing greater emphasis on creating mass from energy (as in the joust) than on creating energy from mass (as in nuclear weapons and power stations). Over the last couple of decades, this less familiar reading of Einstein's equation has helped physicists explain why everything ever encountered has the mass that it does. Experiments have shown that the subatomic particles making up matter have almost no mass of their own. But because of their motions and interactions inside of atoms, these particles contain substantial energy - and it's this energy that gives matter its heft. Take away Einstein's equation, and matter loses its mass. You can't get much more pervasive than that. Its singular fame notwithstanding, E = mc² fits into the pattern of work and discovery that Einstein pursued with relentless passion throughout his entire life. Einstein believed that deep truths about the workings of the universe would always be 'as simple as possible, but no simpler.' And in his view, simplicity was epitomized by unifying concepts - like matter and energy - previously deemed separate. In 1916, Einstein simplified our understanding even further by combining gravity with space, time, matter and energy in his General Theory of Relativity. For my money, this is the most beautiful scientific synthesis ever achieved. With these successes, Einstein's belief in unification grew ever stronger. But the sword of his success was double-edged. It allowed him to dream of a single theory encompassing all of nature's laws, but led him to expect that the methods that had worked so well for him in the past would continue to work for him in the future. It wasn't to be. For the better part of his last 30 years, Einstein pursued the 'unified theory,' but it stubbornly remained beyond his grasp. As the years passed, he became increasingly isolated; mainstream physics was concerned with prying apart the atom and paid little attention to Einstein's grandiose quest. In a 1942 letter, Einstein described himself as having become a 'a lonely old man who is displayed now and then as a curiosity because he doesn't wear socks.' Today, Einstein's quest for unification is no curiosity - it is the driving force for many physicists of my generation. No one knows how close we've gotten. Maybe the unified theory will elude us just as it dodged Einstein last century. Or maybe the new approaches being developed by contemporary physics will finally prevail, giving us the ultimate explanation of the cosmos. Without a unified theory it's hard to imagine we will ever resolve the deepest of all mysteries - how the universe began- so the stakes are high and the motivation strong. But even if our science proves unable to determine the origin of the universe, recent progress has already established beyond any doubt that a fraction of a second after creation (however that happened), the universe was filled with tremendous energy in the form of wildly moving exotic particles and radiation. Within a few minutes, this energy employed E = mc² to transform itself into more familiar matter - the simplest atoms - which, in the course of about a billion years, clumped into planets and stars. During the 13 billion years that have followed, stars have used E = mc² to transform their mass back into energy in the form of heat and light; about five billion years ago, our closest star - the sun - began to shine, and the heat and light generated was essential to the formation of life on our planet. If prevailing theory and observations are correct, the conversion of matter to energy throughout the cosmos, mediated by stars, black holes and various forms of radioactive decay, will continue unabated. In the far, far future, essentially all matter will have returned to energy. But because of the enormous expansion of space, this energy will be spread so thinly that it will hardly ever convert back to even the lightest particles of matter. Instead, a faint mist of light will fall for eternity through an ever colder and quieter cosmos. The guiding hand of Einstein's E = mc² will have finally come to rest. Brian Greene is a professor of physics and mathematics at Columbia.

Subject: That Famous Equation and You From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 13:01:34 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/opinion/30greene.html?ex=1285732800&en=75072acd6902749d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 30, 2005 That Famous Equation and You By BRIAN GREENE DURING the summer of 1905, while fulfilling his duties in the patent office in Bern, Switzerland, Albert Einstein was fiddling with a tantalizing outcome of the special theory of relativity he'd published in June. His new insight, at once simple and startling, led him to wonder whether 'the Lord might be laughing ... and leading me around by the nose.' But by September, confident in the result, Einstein wrote a three-page supplement to the June paper, publishing perhaps the most profound afterthought in the history of science. A hundred years ago this month, the final equation of his short article gave the world E = mc². In the century since, E = mc² has become the most recognized icon of the modern scientific era. Yet for all its symbolic worth, the equation's intimate presence in everyday life goes largely unnoticed. There is nothing you can do, not a move you can make, not a thought you can have, that doesn't tap directly into E = mc². Einstein's equation is constantly at work, providing an unseen hand that shapes the world into its familiar form. It's an equation that tells of matter, energy and a remarkable bridge between them. Before E = mc², scientists described matter using two distinct attributes: how much the matter weighed (its mass) and how much change the matter could exert on its environment (its energy). A 19th century physicist would say that a baseball resting on the ground has the same mass as a baseball speeding along at 100 miles per hour. The key difference between the two balls, the physicist would emphasize, is that the fast-moving baseball has more energy: if sent ricocheting through a china shop, for example, it would surely break more dishes than the ball at rest. And once the moving ball has done its damage and stopped, the 19th-century physicist would say that it has exhausted its capacity for exerting change and hence contains no energy. After E = mc², scientists realized that this reasoning, however sensible it once seemed, was deeply flawed. Mass and energy are not distinct. They are the same basic stuff packaged in forms that make them appear different. Just as solid ice can melt into liquid water, Einstein showed, mass is a frozen form of energy that can be converted into the more familiar energy of motion. The amount of energy (E) produced by the conversion is given by his formula: multiply the amount of mass converted (m) by the speed of light squared (c²). Since the speed of light is a few hundred million meters per second (fast enough to travel around the earth seven times in a single second), c² , in these familiar units, is a huge number, about 100,000,000,000,000,000. A little bit of mass can thus yield enormous energy. The destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was fueled by converting less than an ounce of matter into energy; the energy consumed by New York City in a month is less than that contained in the newspaper you're holding. Far from having no energy, the baseball that has come to rest on the china shop's floor contains enough energy to keep an average car running continuously at 65 m.p.h. for about 5,000 years. Before 1905, the common view of energy and matter thus re

Subject: Fragment and Summary From: Emma To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 13:11:07 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/opinion/30greene.html?ex=1285732800&en=75072acd6902749d&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss An object's mass is its resistance to being accelerated (to having its speed increased). According to E = mc2, an object's mass depends on its energy. This means that the faster an object goes, the harder one must push to increase its speed. (If an object's 'rest mass' - called m0 - is the resistance it has to being sped up from a resting position, then Einstein's result can be written more explicitly as E = m0c2/ (1-v2/c2)-½, so m = m0(1-v2/c2)-½, where v2 is the square of the object's speed. As the formula shows, when the object's speed approaches that of light, its mass grows infinitely large, which explains why, regardless of how hard it is pushed, it won't exceed light speed.)

Subject: Dollar Up, Dollar Down From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 11:19:00 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The dollar is where it was 10 years ago against the prime world currencies, quite a stable run. This year the dollar has strengthened 15% against the Euro, but suppose the dollar had lost 15%, what then? Europe is in the midst's of a terrific bull market in stocks, and I do not see where a weak Euro has been more than the least of problems for Europe. Why should a weak dollar worry us? The Federal Reserve has no express mandate to protect the value of the dollar, as opposed to the domestic economy, and Alan Greenspan has often made it clear the Fed will not protect the dollar. There are long term problems which are not being addressed, but the value of the dollar as such does not concern me. As in Europe, or America a year ago, stocks likely will be just fine if the dollar weakens.

Subject: Doctor Prestowitz And Mr Clyde From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 09:32:57 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: CLYDE PRESTOWITZ The risk of rebuilding New Orleans in a deluge of debt In the wake of President George W. Bush's recent speech in New Orleans, I have been wondering if anyone has asked the Chinese how they feel about his decision to spend 'whatever it costs' to rebuild the city. After all, they are the ones who will have to pay for it. The cost of rebuilding is estimated at more than $200bn (€167bn) but the White House insists it will not increase taxes. That means the entire cost will be added to the $350bn federal budget deficit, driving it close to $600bn. This deficit is financed by selling US Treasury bonds to investors looking for a fair and safe return on their savings. You might think these investors would be mostly Americans. But they are not because the historic 7-8 per cent US household savings rate is now below zero and the federal budget deficit outweighs the savings of US companies and state and local governments. So the nation's overall savings rate is negative and the deficit is funded by foreigners. In fact, more than 75 per cent is financed by foreign central banks, among which the People's Bank of China will soon pass the Bank of Japan as the biggest lender. Thus, the financing of additional federal borrowing for reconstruction of the Gulf coast must depend heavily on it. The entire US economy is on life support from the PBoC and the BoJ. In 2004, according to the Bank for International Settlements, central banks funded 75 per cent of the US current account deficit. This year, the PBoC alone is likely to cover nearly 40 per cent of it. It is true that US gross domestic product growth is top among the developed countries and that US unemployment, inflation and interest rates are all low, while home equity and household wealth is rising. That is what Mr Bush means when he says the US economy is the 'envy of the world'. The problem is that the negative savings rate means Americans are consuming more than they produce and importing more than they export. The resulting trade deficit will be close to $800bn this year. To cover this gap, the US must have a net inflow of capital from abroad of more than $2bn per day and that must come mostly from China and the other Asian countries whose trade surpluses mirror the US deficit. Any slowing of this flow could cause a decline in the dollar, a rise in interest rates, a slowdown in growth, a rise in unemployment and declining home equity and household wealth - in a word, a recession, if not a depression. Until now, the PBoC and other Asian central banks have been willing to keep recycling dollars. One reason is that they subsidise their exports by pegging or managing the value of their own currencies to keep them undervalued versus the dollar. Chinese exports have been growing at a rate of 30 per cent per year for several years and are on track to account for nearly 50 per cent of Chinese GDP in 2005. With such a large proportion of its domestic economy dependent on exporting goods to the US, China dares not risk either a slowdown in US consumption or a steep fall in the dollar exchange rate. So the PBoC has been recycling its export earnings into US Treasuries to keep both US consumption and the dollar strong. These banks now hold so many dollars ($800bn for the PBoC and close to $850bn for the BoJ), that any fall in its value would cause large capital losses on their own balance sheets. There has been increasing concern about the sustainability of the system. Various analysts have pointed out that the US is already absorbing more than 80 per cent of the global savings available for international investment and that continuing US consumption-led growth implies eventually running out of the foreign savings to finance it. Others have noted that there are limits on the ability of the PBoC and other central banks to keep absorbing dollar denominated reserves without causing inflationary pressures in their own economies. Still others point out that fear of a capital loss if they sell dollars may eventually be outweighed by the fear of a capital loss resulting from the inflationary affect of unbridled US deficits. In view of all this, Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chief, has predicted a 75 per cent chance of a global financial crisis within five years. Breaking the budget and flooding the world with yet more Treasuries to reconstruct New Orleans could trigger the crisis which in turn could cut off the lending that is essential, not only for reconstruction of the south but for the day-to-day operation of the whole American economy. That is why it is important to know if Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, likes jazz. The writer is author of Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East. He is president and founder of the Economic Strategy Institute and was counsellor to the secretary of commerce in the Reagan Administration FT Thursday September 29 2005

Subject: Things that make you go 'Hmmm' (part II) From: Pancho Villa To: Pancho Villa Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 17:43:13 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: http://www.vivelecanada.ca/article.php/20050904064709675

Subject: K&W Macrotextbook: PowerPoint sets From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 06:54:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: are available. See http://www.worthpublishers.com/krugmanwellsnew/main.htm

Subject: America’s Opposing Futures (DeLong) From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 03:15:37 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/delong40/English America’s Opposing Futures J. Bradford DeLong I recently learned something interesting: American international finance economists and American domestically oriented macroeconomists have very different – indeed, opposing – views of the likely consequences of America’s huge current-account deficit. International finance economists see a financial crisis as likely, followed by a painful and perhaps prolonged recession in the United States. Domestically oriented macroeconomists, by contrast, see a forthcoming fall in the value of the dollar not as a crisis, but as an opportunity to accelerate growth. Domestically oriented macroeconomists look at the situation roughly like this: at some point in the future, foreign central banks will become less willing to continue buying massive amounts of dollar-denominated securities in order to prop up the greenback. When they cease their large-scale dollar-purchase programs, the value of the dollar will fall – and it will fall hard. But, according to this view, as the dollar’s value declines, US exports will become more attractive to foreigners and American employment will rise, with labor re-allocated to the newly-vibrant export sector. It will be like what happened in Britain after it abandoned its exchange-rate peg and allowed the pound to depreciate relative to the Deutschmark , or what happened in the US in the late 1980’s, when the dollar depreciated against the pound, the Deutschmark , and – most importantly – the Japanese yen. International finance economists see a far bleaker future. They see the end of large-scale dollar-purchase programs by central banks leading not only to a decline in the dollar, but also to a spike in US long-term interest rates, which will curb consumption spending immediately and throttle investment spending after only a short lag. To be sure, international finance economists also see US exports benefiting as the value of the dollar declines, but the lags in demand are such that the export boost will come a year or two after the decline in consumption and investment spending. Eight to ten million people will have to shift employment from services and construction into exports and import-competing goods, implying that structural unemployment will rise. Moreover, there may be a financial panic: large financial institutions with short-term liabilities and long-term assets will have a difficult time weathering a large rise in long-term dollar-denominated interest rates. This mismatch can cause financial stress and bankruptcy just as easily as banks’ local-currency assets and dollar liabilities caused stress and bankruptcy in the Mexican and East Asian crises of the 1990’s and in the Argentinean crisis of this decade. When international finance economists sketch this scenario, domestically oriented macroeconomists respond that it sounds like a case of incompetent monetary policy. Why should the Federal Reserve allow long-term interest rates to spike just because other central banks have ceased their dollar-purchase programs? Should not the Fed step in and replace them with its own purchases of long-term US Treasury bonds, thereby keeping long-term interest rates at a level conducive to full employment? To this, international finance economists respond that the Fed does not have the power to do so. When forced to choose between full employment and price stability, the international finance economists say that the Fed will choose price stability, because its institutional memory of the 1970’s, when inflation ran rampant, remains very strong. Therefore, since a fall in the value of the dollar raises import prices, and thus functions as a negative shock to the supply side of the economy, the Fed will have to raise, not lower, interest rates, and sell, not buy, bonds. Serious economists whom I respect enormously find themselves taking strong positions on opposite sides of this debate. I’m not wise enough to say which side is right, but I certainly know which side I hope is wrong. J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley, was Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton administration. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2005. www.project-syndicate.org

Subject: Re: America’s Opposing Futures (DeLong) From: Poyetas To: Yann Date Posted: Sun, Oct 02, 2005 at 12:01:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hmmmm, It seems to me that Japan and China will only stop purchasing t-bills when domestic demand increases to the point where their respective central banks will not need to follow and export-based strategy to stimulate growth. When this happens (10 years?) the dollar certainly will fall. But why should long term interest rates rise? I think this has a lot to do with the fiscal deficit. A long term interest rate hike will occur if America continues to be dependant on deficit financing. If the government starts running surpluses, the debt supply will fall, offsetting the drop in demand for T-Bills. I also question the effect of increasing import prices on inflation. If local substitutes exist for cheaper prices, 'effective' inflation should not rise substantially. All of this, of course, hinges on the hope that the US will be run by competent officials 5 to 10 years from now. BIG IF!!!

Subject: Re: America’s Opposing Futures (DeLong) From: Pete Weis To: Yann Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 08:24:47 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The Fed will opt to protect the dollar since a global loss of confidence in the dollar could cause everything to unravel. This is the first time in history that the dollar is threatened to the extent that it is.

Subject: Re: America’s Opposing Futures (DeLong) From: Terri To: Yann Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 06:23:09 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Please date these fine article for us. The date is quite important for context. thank you so much.

Subject: Re: America’s Opposing Futures (DeLong) From: Yann To: Terri Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 06:48:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: September 2005.

Subject: Re: America’s Opposing Futures (DeLong) From: Terri To: Yann Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 11:07:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Wonderful Yann, this post is terrific for debating.

Subject: A Second Opinion on Sunshine From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 14:51:23 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.cheef.com/buffaloskin/Answers/The_Pro___Con/NY_Times/ny_times.html June 17, 2003 A Second Opinion on Sunshine: It Can Be Good Medicine After All By JANE E. BRODY - New York Times Can sunshine, now shunned by so many who fear skin cancer and wrinkles, save many more lives than it harms? Most definitely, says a leading expert in the field, Dr. Michael F. Holick, a professor of medicine, dermatology, physiology and biophysics at the Boston University School of Medicine. Dr. Holick, who discovered the active form of vitamin D, has pulled together an impressive body of evidence in support of his advice that no one should be, as he puts it, a 'sunphobe' or, for that matter, a sun 'worshipper'. He has concluded that relatively brief but unfettered exposure to sunshine or its equivalent several times a week can help to ward off a host of debilitating and sometimes deadly diseases, including osteoporosis, hypertension, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, depression and cancers of the colon, prostate and breast. In other words, Dr. Holick says, Sunshine is good medicine. But like all medicines, the right dosage is critical to reaping the rewards that sunlight has to offer without suffering unwanted consequences. Dr. Holick elaborates on these research-based ideas in a small but important book, 'The UV Advantage', written with Mark Jenkins, a health writer. Given the arrival of the sunshine season, people should have the opportunity to benefit from the doctor's insights without further delay. A Ubiquitous Hormone Dr. Holick's argument that controlled exposure to sunshine can have powerful health benefits stems from decades of research into the many roles played by vitamin D in the body. The main source of this essential nutrient is neither food nor dietary supplement. It is sunshine. Vitamin D is made in the skin when it is exposed to the ultraviolet B (UVB) rays in sunshine, as well as those from tanning machines. But the amount of vitamin D formed in a given period of sun exposure depends on the color of that skin - that is, how rich the skin is in melanin, which blocks UV rays. The darker a person's skin, the longer he or she has to be in sun to form a significant amount of vitamin D. A national study showed that 42 percent of African-American women ages 15 to 49 were deficient in vitamin D by the end of winter. A very dark-skinned person may need to spend up to 50 times as much time in the sun to make the same amount of vitamin D as someone of Scandinavian descent. For the average African-American, 5 to to 10 times as much time in the sun will be needed. Another critical factor is where a person lives in relation to the Equator. The farther away, the less intense one's exposure to UVB rays. This is undoubtedly why people in northern latitudes evolved with light skin. To enhance their ability to absorb UVB rays, and those near the Equator evolved with very dark skin, to limit that absorption to a physiologically desirable amount. For vitamin D to perform its myriad biochemical roles in body cells, it must first be converted into an activated form, vitamin D hormone. For years it was thought that this process took place only in the kidneys, which then sent tiny amounts of the hormone to the circulatory system for delivery to other tissues. But studies by Dr. Holick and others have shown that the cells in many different organs do not have to rely on the meager supply of vitamin D hormone from the kidneys. Rather, cells in other tissues, including the prostate, breast, colon and immune system, are also able to convert vitamin D into the active hormone. Many Health Effects Everyone should know that vitamin D is critical to the formation and maintenance of normal bones. Even if people consume enough calcium, they cannot build and maintain bone mass if they are deficient in vitamin D. One symptom of vitamin D deficiency is pain and weakness in the muscles and bones. Based on that symptom, Dr. Holick has suggested that some disorders diagnosed as fibromyalgia may in fact be vitamin D deficiency. Dr. Holick noted a recent resurgence of rickets in the United States, the combined result of exclusive breast-feeding (breast milk has almost no vitamin D) and keeping babies out of the sun or slathered with sunscreen. A sunscreen with an S.P.F. of 8 blocks 95 percent of the skin's ability to make vitamin D, and an S.P.F. of 15 blocks it by 99 percent. In the prostate, the vitamin D hormone has been shown to act as a powerful inhibitor of abnormal cell growth, and cells in the colon and breast have similar mechanisms for using this hormone. A Scandinavian study linked low levels of vitamin D in the blood to a risk of developing prostate cancer that is about 50 percent higher than it is for those with normal and high levels. And, in the eight years of research conducted in an aging study in Baltimore, experts found that those with low levels of circulating vitamin D had a 50 percent greater risk of developing colon cancer than those with normal to high levels. Dr. William Grant of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration reported that people who worked outdoors or lived in sunny climates had lower death rates from cancers of the breast, colon, prostate, ovary, bladder, uterus, esophagus, rectum and stomach. Dr. Grant calculated that 85,000 fewer cases of cancer and 30,000 few cancer deaths would occur each year if everyone got as much sun as people living in the Southwest. The same applies to autoimmune diseases like multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis and Type 1 diabetes, which is usually diagnosed in children and young adults. Dr. Holick, meanwhile, has found that exposing people with high blood pressure to UVB rays in a tanning salon lowers their blood pressure readings about as much as a drug will. He also found that increasing vitamin D improved the heart's pumping ability and reduced cardiac strain. Safe in the Sun How much vitamin D is enough? Although the official recommended amount ranges from 200 international units for infants to 600 for the elderly, Dr. Holick and other experts say 1,000 units a day are needed, an amount few people consume through foods or supplements. Sunshine must fill the gap. 'Between 90 percent and 95 percent of most people's vitamin D comes from casual exposure to sunlight', Dr. Holick said. He does not advocate tanning. Rather, he proposes exposing unprotected skin to sunlight for a matter of minutes, with the recommended time determined by a person's skin type, the time of year, the time of day and the latitude. He suggests figuring out how long it takes for one's skin to turn pink in the sun (not burned, just pink) and then exposing a quarter of one's body (e.g., hands, arms and fact or, if not the face, then the arms and legs) to the sun for one quarter of that time. After that, if a person plans to remain outdoors, the advice is to cover up or apply sunscreen that blocks both UVA and UVB rays. For example, a person with Skin Type 2 (characteristic of most Caucasians) that burns easily and hardly tans who lives in the northern half of the country might expose a quarter of the body surface to the sun for 5 to 10 minutes a day between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. during the next five months (the summer) to build up enough vitamin D to last through the winter.

Subject: Health Benefits of Vitamin D From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 14:50:27 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/health/article-page.html?res=9402E2DA1239F93BA15752C0A9659C8B63 January 28, 2003 Shining a Light on the Health Benefits of Vitamin D By CLAUDIA DREIFUS A visit to the office of Dr. Michael F. Holick in the Boston University Medical Center quickly conveys his enthusiasm for his favorite hormone, vitamin D. On the office walls are letters from sixth graders responding to a talk he gave. 'The important fact I learned from you yesterday is that most living things or persons need vitamin D,' one child wrote. Another added, 'Even frogs need vitamin D.' To advance his point, Dr. Holick -- a 56-year-old endocrinologist and a professor of dermatology, biophysics and physiology -- handed a reporter a copy of a paper he had recently written, 'Vitamin D: The Underappreciated D-lightful Hormone That Is Important for Skeletal and Cellular Health,' published in the journal Current Opinions in Endocrinology and Diabetes. Dr. Holick has spent 30 years researching the many ways that vitamin D serves the creatures of this planet. His proudest accomplishments, he says, include discoveries that show how activated vitamin D can be used to treat osteoporosis, kidney failure and psoriasis. His psoriasis finding, he notes, has become a widely employed therapy in treating some forms of the disorder. His research into the way skin converts sunlight into vitamin D has led him to a new crusade, encouraging people to let some sun shine on their skin and, thus, some vitamin D into their systems, a controversial idea in some corners of the dermatology world. Q. Would you describe vitamin D as an underrated vitamin? A. I would say vitamin D has been taken for granted and, as a result, has been ignored. However, this vitamin is critically important for maintaining normal calcium in the blood and for bone health. The vitamin plays a crucial role in most metabolic functions and also, muscle, cardiac and neurological functions. Without enough of it, a child can get rickets, and an adult might suffer bone softening, a mineralization defect. Vitamin D deficiency can precipitate and exacerbate osteoporosis. Moreover, there is evidence that vitamin D may have subtle but profound effects on regulating cell growth and on our cardiovascular and immune systems. There is a strong association of sunlight exposure and increased blood levels of vitamin D with a decreased risk of many common cancers: colon, breast, prostate, ovarian. Additionally, vitamin D deficiency has been associated with an increased risk for Type 1 diabetes. The converse is also true. Adequate vitamin D equals less risk for diabetes. So yes, I would say despite being ignored, this is a very important vitamin. Q. How does an average person obtain a sufficient daily supply of vitamin D? A. It's been estimated that about 80 to 100 percent of an individual's requirement comes from exposure to sunlight. The skin absorbs the ultraviolet energy from the sun and then converts it to vitamin D. Now, there are a few foods that contain vitamin D naturally -- salmon and mackerel. Also, the oils from some fish like cod, shark and tuna have it. But, to get enough, you'd have to eat these fish and/or their oils three times a week. There is, of course, vitamin D in fortified milk. But you'd have to drink six to eight glasses a day to get enough. So sunlight is the main source of vitamin D. And there is some research that's begun to be published that shows a lot of people, particularly people who live in northerly places, just aren't getting enough sunlight to meet their vitamin D needs. Q. You have done some research here at Boston University on who exactly is suffering from vitamin D deficiency. What are you finding? A. We completed a study last year that shows that 36 percent of young adults in the Boston area, ages 18 to 29, were vitamin D insufficient at the end of the winter. Amazingly, 11 percent of our group were vitamin D deficient at the end of the summer. Our subject pool was taken from local medical students and hospital residents, people who work so hard and so long that they rarely see the light of day. The thing is a person can actually store vitamin D. You store it in your body fat! And that's why if you get adequate amount of exposure to sunlight in spring, summer and fall, you will store it in your body fat, and it will later be released during the wintertime. Our hard-working medical students just weren't getting enough sunlight, not even in the summertime. I suspect this is true for a lot of office workers and others who work at indoor jobs. Or even people who don't work. We and others have shown over and over again that older adults are prone to vitamin D deficiency. A study done in Baltimore, for example, shows that up to 50, 60 percent of free-living adults over the age of 65 were severely vitamin D deficient. The bottom line is many who live in northern places and who spend most of their time indoors need to find ways to get outdoors, so that they can get their bodies to make and store reserves of vitamin D. Q. Doesn't the idea of being in the sunlight run contrary to the conventional wisdom, which says that sun exposure causes skin cancers and should be avoided? A. I'm not advocating tanning. But the fact is inescapable. Our vitamin D requirement comes from our casual everyday exposure to sunlight. We're not interested in recommending that you get sunburn or that you stay out for prolonged periods of time. We encourage the opposite. We say: 'Go out there that 5 or 10 or 15 minutes. Make your vitamin D in your skin. Then put on your sunscreen with an S.P.F. of 15 to prevent the effects of the chronic excessive exposure to sunlight.' Q. Do you think that dermatologists have gone overboard in pushing their patients to shun the sun? A. That's changing. I'm a professor of dermatology myself, and I've noticed that many of my colleagues are realizing that maybe we've gone too far on that. I don't think that 'no sun' is a healthy recommendation. And I think that, just like anything in life, moderation probably helps maximize our health. Q. Is your 5- to 15-minute sunlight prescription something you recommend across the board to prevent vitamin D deficiency? A. No. It depends on the person and their particular sensitivity to sunlight. New research, for instance, is showing that African-Americans may require more time outdoors to make enough vitamin D. We estimate that up to 40 percent of African-Americans in the Boston area are vitamin D deficient. In general, I recommend that whatever your ethnicity or skin tone, you get outdoors without a sunscreen somewhere around 20 percent of the amount of time it would take to cause a sunburn, however long that might be. I also recommend an additional daily multivitamin that contains a minimum of 400 units of vitamin D. Q. What is your own vitamin D regimen? A. Well, I love to garden and play tennis. In those activities, I wear a broad-rimmed hat, and I wear a lot of protection over my arms and legs, but not for the whole time. As I start my activities, I usually have my face and arms and legs exposed to sunlight for about 10 minutes, and then I cover myself up. I don't ever get sunburned.

Subject: National Index Returns [Dollars] From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 14:11:45 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Dollars] 12/31/04 - 9/28/05 Australia 16.5 Canada 24.2 Denmark 16.6 France 9.3 Germany 5.5 Hong Kong 10.6 Japan 11.2 Netherlands 5.7 Norway 30.9 Sweden 6.7 Switzerland 8.6 UK 7.0

Subject: Index Returns [Domestic Currency] From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 14:09:33 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html National Index Returns [Domestic Currency] 12/31/04 - 9/28/05 Australia 20.7 Canada 22.5 Denmark 32.4 France 23.7 Germany 19.4 Hong Kong 10.4 Japan 23.0 Netherlands 19.6 Norway 40.8 Sweden 25.5 Switzerland 23.8 UK 16.6

Subject: Vanguard Fund Returns From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 12:36:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://flagship5.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByName Vanguard Fund Returns 12/31/04 to 9/28/05 S&P Index is 1.7 Large Cap Growth Index is 0.7 Large Cap Value Index is 4.6 Mid Cap Index is 8.7 Small Cap Index is 4.3 Small Cap Value Index is 3.8 Europe Index is 6.7 Pacific Index is 11.9 Energy is 50.1 Health Care is 11.3 Precious Metals 31.9 REIT Index is 7.0 High Yield Corporate Bond Fund is 1.6 Long Term Corporate Bond Fund is 5.1

Subject: Sector Stock Indexes From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 12:35:12 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Sector Stock Indexes 12/31/04 - 9/28/05 Energy 48.5 Financials -2.4 Health Care 6.0 Info Tech -1.8 Materials -6.0 REITs 7.1 Telecoms -0.4 Utilities 21.0

Subject: The good one? From: Yann To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 11:57:38 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I've just found this article which SEEMS to be the recent article by PK entitled 'Find the Brownie'. IS IT THE GOOD ONE? Thanks for your answer. (http://www.thedailybj.com/index.php?title=paul_krugman_find_the_brownies&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1) Find the Brownie For the politically curious seeking entertainment, I'd like to propose two new trivia games: ``Find the Brownie'' and ``Two Degrees of Jack Abramoff''. The objective in Find the Brownie is to find an obscure but important government job held by someone whose only apparent qualifications for that job are political loyalty and personal connections. It's inspired by President Bush's praise, four days after Katrina hit, for the hapless Michael Brown, the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency: ``Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job.'' I guess it depends on the meaning of the word heck. There are a lot of Brownies. As Time magazine puts it in its latest issue, ``Bush has gone further than most presidents to put political stalwarts in some of the most important government jobs you've never heard of.'' Time offers a couple of fresh examples, such as the former editor of a Wall Street medical-industry newsletter who now holds a crucial position at the Food and Drug Administration. A tipster urged me to look for Brownies among regional administrators for the General Services Administration, which oversees federal property and leases. There are several potential ways a position at GSA could be abused. For example, an official might give a particular businessman an inside track in the purchase of government property _ the charge against David Safavian, who was recently arrested _ or give a particular landlord an inside track in renting space to federal agencies. Some of the regional administrators at GSA are long-time professionals. But the regional administrator for the Northeast and Caribbean region, which includes New York, has no obvious qualifications other than being the daughter of the chairman of the Conservative Party of New York State. The regional administrator for the Southwest, appointed in 2002 after a failed bid for his father's congressional seat, is Scott Armey, the son of Dick Armey, the former House majority leader. You get the idea. Go ahead, see what _ or rather who _ you can come up with. Jack Abramoff is a lobbyist who was paid huge sums by clients such as casino-owning Indian tribes and sweatshop operators on Saipan. Two Degrees of Jack Abramoff is inspired by the remarkable centrality of Abramoff _ who was indicted last month on charges of fraud _ in Washington's power structure. The goal isn't to find important political players who were chummy with Abramoff; that's too easy. Instead, you have to find people linked by employment. One degree of Jack Abramoff is someone who actually worked for the lobbyist. Two degrees is a powerful Washington figure who hired someone who formerly worked for Abramoff, or who had one of his own former employees go to work for Abramoff. Grover Norquist, the powerful anti-tax lobbyist, is a one-degree man. Norquist was Abramoff's campaign manager when he ran for chairman of the College Republican National Committee, then became his executive director. And don't dismiss this as kid stuff: As Franklin Foer explains in The New Republic, the college Republican organisation pays serious salaries and has been a stepping stone for the likes of Lee Atwater and Karl Rove. Rove, by the way, is a two-degree man. He hired Susan Ralston, Abramoff's personal assistant, as his own personal assistant. For those unfamiliar with what that means, Ralston became Rove's gatekeeper _ the person who determined who got to see the great man. Tom DeLay, the House majority leader, is also a two-degree man. Tony Rudy, who worked for DeLay in several capacities, left to work for Abramoff. Finally, somebody should be considered a two-degree man on account of the recently arrested Safavian, who worked for both Abramoff and Norquist, then went first to the GSA and on to the White House Office of Management and Budget, where he oversaw procurement policy. But I'm not sure who gets credit for hiring Safavian. OK, enough joking. The point of my games _ which are actually research programmes for enterprising journalists _ is that all the scandals now surfacing are linked. Something is rotten in the state of the US government. And the lesson of Hurricane Katrina is that a culture of cronyism and corruption can have lethal consequences. Paul Krugman is a New York Times columnist.

Subject: The Mysteries of Animal Colors From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 06:22:35 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/20/science/20colo.html?ex=1248062400&en=3cd64ccdfa9e2ea6&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland July 20, 2004 Some Blend In, Others Dazzle: The Mysteries of Animal Colors By NATALIE ANGIER When the Democrats gather in Boston later this month for their national convention, the topic of color will surely be on everybody's lips. Which states are going to go blue for John Kerry, which red for President Bush? How can the blue-blooded Mr. Kerry appeal to grape-jellied Americans? Should the candidate flaunt Silver Star, Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts, or cede the limelight to the 'Golden Boy' running by his side? The impulse to colorize is normal. It is not partisan. It is not even particularly hominoid. From the neon sass of a 'Finding Nemo' clownfish to the peridot flash of a golden poison-dart frog, the whole world is a pigsty of pigment. The feathers of an Eastern bluebird are saturated in such a fat, matte lapis blue, you wonder how the creature gets airborne, while the cardinal is that perfect, can-can shade of lipstick you can't even find in Paris. The face of a male mandrill looks practically patriotic, its brilliant blue and white cheek ridges bisected by a snout as red as the national debt. Animals use colors to persuade or dissuade, stand out from the crowd or blend into the loud, to flaunt their moxie and so be mated, or to warn they're toxic if preyed upon. And while naturalists have long had eyes enough to goggle at the spectacle arrayed before them, and artists have sought to capture on canvas every angstrom's difference between the turquoise of a Mexican Dancer nudibranch and that of a resplendent quetzal, only recently have scientists begun to take the full measure and meaning of animal color. They have been analyzing the physics and chemistry underlying some of the most extraordinary colors in the animal kingdom, and refuting or rethinking previous assumptions about how some of the more spectacular tints are generated. In a report that appears in a recent issue of The Journal of Experimental Biology, Dr. Richard O. Prum of Yale University and Dr. Rodolfo H. Torres of the University of Kansas overturn the century-old assumption that the flesh of a mandrill and the feathers of a blue jay appear blue by a scattershot scattering of light, as the sky does, and show instead that the fine structure of the skin and feather fibers precisely amplifies rather than diffuses the blue wavelengths of light. Some researchers are exploring the mechanisms that variously give rise to the deep, dependable reds of birds like the cardinal or red-winged blackbird, and the shifting coloration of a house finch, whose feathers may be chili red one season and tamale yellow the next. Other scientists are probing the structural basis for the iridescent tones that make creatures like a hummingbird or scarab beetle seem to shimmer metallic purple when spied from one angle, or green or black from another. Still others are probing the absence of color, the bizarre engineering challenge of being an utterly transparent animal, as many creatures of the deep ocean are, yet still have a stomach capable of digesting dinner. Researchers are finding subtle correlations between the lighting that illuminates an animal's stage and the colors in which it is costumed. 'Some colors are more conspicuous in one lighting environment than another,' said Dr. Geoffrey E. Hill, a professor of biology at Auburn University and author of 'A Red Bird in a Brown Bag' (Oxford University Press, 2002). 'The light at the floor of a rainforest has different spectral properties than light in an open field.' Many of the most brilliant of the tropical birds live in the upper canopy of the rain forest, where they are bathed in abundant, full-spectrum light and can show themselves to optimal effect. Yet other lushly plumaged birds, like manakins and honeycreepers, take advantage of the stippled sunshine that breaks through to the forest understories, and will choreograph acrobatic mating displays in which their bright colors alternately blink and darken in the broken light, rather like dancers beneath a spinning disco ball. Moreover, contrary to earlier assumptions, researchers have found that many of the creatures with the bluest hues in nature evolved in the deep forest, rather than in open habitats. 'One theory had it that you should signal in the available light, and there's not much blue light inside a forest,' Dr. Prum said. 'This theory predicts that if you want to be conspicuous in a forest, you should be orange.' So whence the woodland blues? Recent research indicates that what many animals are visually sensitive to is anything outside their usual habitat. A forest milieu is green, brown, yellow, sometimes orange. 'Blues and ultraviolets are rare among the background colors,' Dr. Prum said. 'So if you've got them, you stand out strikingly.' Especially to non-people pairs of peepers. Researchers have been astonished to discover just how keen is the color vision of creatures up and down nature's blinking bestiary: birds, fish, reptiles and even some invertebrates see a much more vivid world than do we. Scientists estimate the richness of an animal's perceptual palette by looking at the diversity and density of its cones, the eye cells that respond to color. Humans have three cone types, one sensitive to the red chunk of the light spectrum, another to the green and a third to the blue, resulting in so-called trichromatic vision. Birds have a fourth that is tuned to ultraviolet light, which means that not only can they see in parts of the electromagnetic spectrum invisible to us, but also that their total set of color combinations is much higher as well. Moreover, the cone density in bird eyes is about five times greater than in ours. Yet the Oscar in visual virtuosity probably belongs to the manta shrimp family. These small reef-dwelling crustaceans are spectacular even by the Peter Max standards of a coral community; one species is aptly called the peacock shrimp. And the shrimp can take in as much color as they put out. 'Most fish have four cone types,' said Dr. Thomas W. Cronin, a professor of biological sciences at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, who studies color in marine animals. 'Manta shrimp probably have eight.' Our comparative colorblindness is a mammalian legacy. The vertebrate visual system started evolving hundreds of millions of years ago, and improved over time among diurnal creatures, as many reptiles and fish and nearly all birds are. But during the long reign of the dinosaurs, mammals adapted a nocturnal strategy, and so lost much of their color acuity. Humans and other Old World primates only regained trichromatic vision fairly recently, said Dr. Hill, 'and we haven't gotten very far with it yet.' With less ability to perceive the sexual appeal of bright finery, most mammals are fairly drab, and what color they do have is dependent for its production on melanin, the dark pigments generated by cells in skin and hair follicles that may be black, brown or reddish. More important in a mammal than the color of its coat are its patterns, the spots or stripes that serve to camouflage or confuse. Birds and other orders also have melanin colors - a robin's ruddy breast is the avian equivalent of a redhead's mane - but the richer flames flitting about are more likely the product of diet. Many birds eat foods high in carotenoids, the antioxidant chemicals that make fruits and vegetables red, orange or yellow. But they are not just after a healthy dose of vitamins; they rely on the plant pigments to give flash to their feathers, often in just a few crucial spots - the showy shoulders of a red-winged blackbird, the rouged cheek pads of a zebra finch. Some species like the cardinal are exquisitely efficient at extracting carotenoids from their food, and hence their plumage remains red, although it may lighten or darken depending on the relative abundance of berries. By contrast, the house finch changes color completely with shifts in pigment consumption. Dr. Hill has taken finches into captivity, fed them diets that were alternately low or high in carotenoids, and watched them switch like traffic lights from yellow to red and back again. Among wild finch populations in California, the birds may be scarlet in one neighborhood, orange in another, daisy yellow in the next, and bird watchers often are not aware that they are looking at the same species. But is redder always better? Dr. Hill and his colleagues are now trying to determine if there is some optimal carotenoidal complexion at which the birds are most attractive to each other. Researchers are also exploring a class of colors that are structural in nature, the result of an animal's coat bending, reflecting and refracting light waves to create a lively veneer. The iridescence seen on a hummingbird's throat or a rainbow trout's flashing scales is one type of structural coloring, caused by so-called coherent scattering. The molecular architecture of the feathers and scales is precisely organized in crystalline fashion that breaks incoming sunlight into an array of colors, and the eye then picks up ever-shifting bands of these colors, depending on the angle at which the shimmering specimen is viewed. Another type of structural color results from the incoherent scattering of light, also known as Tyndall or Rayleigh scattering. The sky is the most renowned example of such scattering at work. Sunlight and its complete spectrum of radiation falls on the atmosphere, a diffuse wilderness of particles. Most of the light rays are too wide of wale to be impeded on their journey earthward, but blue light is so short-waved that it invariably meets a molecule it cannot ignore and is scattered across the sky. Scientists had long been impressed by the jazzy blue bits seen on a handful of mammals: the face and buttocks of the West African mandrill, for example, or the scrotum of the vervet monkey. This prized blue flesh was not iridescent, and it did not arise from some weird pigment, like the bile pigment that makes a robin's eggs blue. So by that peerless scientific principle called 'process of elimination,' they attributed it to Tyndall-Rayleigh scattering, an explanation now found throughout the scientific literature. 'Mammalogists and ornithologists tend to be lazy about their physics,' Dr. Prum said. Deciding to test the verity, Dr. Prum and Dr. Torres used an electron microscope to examine tissue biopsies from four blue-skinned mammals: the mandrill, the vervet monkey, and the mouse and wooly opossums of Australia. They found that the collagen fibers, the long, ropy proteins that give skin its heft and pinch, were much more organized in the blue skin than in normal skin. They weren't as monotonously arrayed as the crystalline microstructures found in iridescently outfitted animals, but neither were they diffusely distributed, as they would need to be to scatter light Rayleigh-style. Instead, the fibers were all of identical thickness and packed with a degree of orderliness similar to that seen in a bowl of grapes or a box of spaghetti. 'Grapes are all about the same size, so they're all the same distance from their neighbors,' Dr. Prum said. 'But if you go out beyond one grape it's essentially random. It's a local-scale order that biologists hadn't appreciated before.' The result of this mixing of local order and large-scale randomness, he said, is that blue light waves are selectively amplified by the tightly spaced collagen fibers while other wavelengths of light are scattered and cancel each other out. Any direction you view the skin, you see the same deep blue. The researchers have also determined that this novel form of structural coloration underlies the blues of other cerulean animals long thought to be incoherently scatter-paned, like bluebirds, blue dragonflies or blue butterflies. Even so, the scientists have found at least one case of blue-sky biology. Blue eyes, it turns out, are the result of Rayleigh scattering. That, or a pair of tinted contact lenses.

Subject: Hunger in Niger: Lives in the Balance From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 05:59:59 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/29/opinion/l29hunger.html September 29, 2005 Hunger in Niger: Lives in the Balance (2 Letters) To the Editor: 'In Place Where the Hungry Are Fed, Farmers May Starve' seems to suggest that distributing food in Niger is an either/or question: either we keep distributing food to everyone, or we stop all food aid to avoid market distortion. Nothing could be further from the truth. The World Food Program will continue to provide food for malnourished children for as long as necessary, and will stop providing food to others who can afford to buy it themselves. Malnourished children have no purchasing power. In Niger, as in every other World Food Program operation, we walk a careful balance between saving lives with emergency food relief and monitoring markets to avoid driving prices up or down. It would be unthinkable for any journalist, politician or aid worker to suggest that food be withheld from children facing starvation in the United States or Europe because we risked messing up the market. Neil Gallagher Director of Communications World Food Program Rome, Sept. 22, 2005 • To the Editor: If only it were true that Niger's hungry were being fed. In Zinder, for example, most of the thousands of severely malnourished children recently admitted to feeding centers come from southern areas where no distributions have been planned or carried out. Why? Despite increased resources and efforts, current free food distributions are based on an early-warning system that monitors past harvests, not areas with the most malnutrition. Doctors Without Borders has continually questioned the consortium of decision makers in Niger - national authorities, donor governments and United Nations agencies - that initially responded to the crisis by selling food to impoverished people at a price few could afford. The argument then, as now, was to protect the market and not disturb long-term development projects. The harvest will offer temporary respite to many, but urgent needs remain. And in an emergency, priority must be given to the destitute and dying of today, not to blind faith in the market and promises of a better tomorrow. Nicolas de Torrente Executive Director Doctors Without Borders New York, Sept. 26, 2005

Subject: In Place Where the Hungry Are Fed From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 05:59:20 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/22/international/africa/22niger.html?ex=1285041600&en=9be0fc0627db213f&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 22, 2005 In Place Where the Hungry Are Fed, Farmers May Starve By NATASHA C. BURLEY NIAMEY, Niger - The images coming out of this impoverished, West African nation have been unrelentingly grim: hungry children with stick-thin arms and swollen bellies, mothers carrying babies hundreds of miles to look for food after a poor harvest and high prices put local staples out of reach. A few months ago, those images prompted a torrent of food aid from Western donors. But now, after a season of good rains, Niger's farmers are producing a bumper crop of millet, the national staple. This should be a cause for rejoicing, yet in one of the twists that mark life in the world's poorest countries, the aid that was intended to save lives could ruin the harvest for many of Niger's farmers by driving down prices. The newly harvested millet and the donated food will reach market stalls at the same time, and with prices depressed, poor farming families may be forced to sell crops normally set aside for their own use and use the money to pay off debts. The effect would be a new cycle of hunger and poverty. Dr. Edward Clay of the Overseas Development Institute, an independent research organization in London, said by e-mail that because the donated food was delayed, 'there is a real risk that late arrival will disrupt recovery in Niger and distort agricultural trade within West Africa.' Millet is grown by almost all of the nation's farmers, but the crop has become one of the factors that work against the people of Niger and in favor of malnutrition and hunger. A distant cousin of corn, it is a hardy crop but provides almost no protein or other nutrients essential for the diets of children, and requires hours of daily pounding to be made edible. Amadou Hassane, a millet farmer north of Niamey, has begun harvesting some of the millet in his fields for his family. 'It is wonderful to be able to give millet to my wife to pound,' he said, proudly fiddling with his tall stalks. 'This year promises to be plentiful, and we're grateful.' But he said he would sell much of his harvest to repay debts incurred to buy seedlings after last year's drought devastated his millet plants and left him with nothing to sell. 'I'll keep no more than half of my harvest as stock for myself, and sell the rest to pay back my debts,' he said. 'I badly need cash.' Since he, and most other farmers in the muddy village of Fala, borrowed money, he will have to sell a greater proportion of his harvest if prices are low. To survive the lean season - the period after household stocks are gone and before the new harvest - Mr. Hassane engaged in a sort of futures market, borrowing against his next harvest so he could buy seed. Sani Laoualy, a researcher with the government program that provides information about agricultural markets, said millet began arriving in markets in noticeable quantities in the first two weeks of September, and prices were beginning to fall. 'Over all, prices fell 14 percent between the 7th of September and the 14th of September,' he said, adding that in some areas in the east of the country, millet prices were nearly on par with normal years. But, he warned, 'prices will fall rapidly over the next six weeks.' The World Food Program in Niamey concluded its first round of food distributions on Thursday, according to Marcus Prior, the West Africa spokesman for the food program. Those areas, however, in the humid southeast of Niger, also have the most promising harvests, and hundreds of acres of millet fields are currently being harvested. Tensions are rising among donors as various officials and organizations have called for distributions to cease, for fear of depressing prices for local farmers. Thirty thousand tons of food, to be trucked up from neighboring Benin and from Togo, has yet to reach Niger, but Gian Carlo Cirri, the World Food Program representative in Niger, insisted that all distribution could be done by Oct. 15. 'Harvests do not happen in one day, and we have time,' he said. If the distribution network, likened by Mr. Cirri to a cruise ship on auto-pilot and difficult to stop, is unable to give out all the food by then, plans are being made by the government of Niger and the United Nations to replenish the national cereal stock. Most international aid organizations have been resisting the World Food Program's decision to continue distributions until mid-October because of the impact on local markets, although Doctors Without Borders wants them to continue because so many people have yet to be fed. 'People responsible for the distributions have a responsibility to monitor prices and be prepared to stop giving out food if prices fall too low,' insisted Jeremy Lester, a senior European Union official in Niger. 'This is an emergency response to a chronic problem,' Mr. Lester said, referring to the distribution of food aid. 'And as these responses go, they often create as many problems as they solve: the poorest will have to continue to sell cheap and buy dear.' Faster U.S. Aid Unlikely A Bush administration proposal that sought to deliver a portion of American food aid more quickly and at lower cost to starving people around the world appears headed for defeat in Congress, though there is still a narrow chance a scaled-down version will survive in the Senate. The administration asked for authority to use a quarter of the $1.2 billion food aid budget provided to the Agency for International Development to buy corn, wheat and other commodities in the developing countries facing hunger crises, or in neighboring countries, rather than from American producers. Now, the government must buy the food in American markets and send most of it on American-flagged ships. Officials at the Agency for International Development said that having the flexibility to buy the food for an African crisis in Africa would make it possible to respond in some cases in weeks instead of months, feed more people with the same amount of money and potentially save thousands of lives. Andrew S. Natsios, administrator of the agency, said the government would be able to buy twice as much food for the same money in some situations because of the savings on transportation. 'You can't eat transportation,' he said. But the change was dropped from the Senate's version of the agriculture appropriations bill expected to be voted on this week, though there is a chance part of the proposal will be restored. The provision was not in the House version, passed in June. The measure ran into fierce opposition from an array of agricultural and shipping interests with stakes in the program. And an alliance of nonprofit groups that receive food aid money also opposed using the program's core financing to buy food in developing countries. Rather, they favored a $100 million pilot program that would only go forward if Congress appropriated extra money for food aid, which they say is indefensibly short of money. A range of agricultural and development economists have long said such a policy option is sensible, so long as it is used wisely. But it is not always the best course, especially where there is a widespread shortage of food and purchasing locally would drive up prices, making food even less affordable. But researchers and aid workers say it can be useful when there is a surplus in a different part of an afflicted nation or in a nearby country.

Subject: Bobby-can the website subscribe? From: Poyetas To: All Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 05:21:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Hi there, I was just wondering how complicated it would be to get permission to see the columns on the website. What if we all donated some money and the website could get a subscription. Is there any chance of that happening? It requires a lot of trust and may lead to control issues. But unlike most republicans, i'm willing to donate for the cause even if that means others get to see the columns for free.

Subject: Re: Bobby-can the website subscribe? From: Bobby To: Poyetas Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 08:38:04 (EDT) Email Address: robert@pkarchive.org Message: Of course this is a very good idea. I am a bit busy until the end of next Monday. I'm going to think this over in addition to a few other ideas that readers have given me. If I don't get back to you, please remind me.

Subject: Re: Bobby-can the website subscribe? From: RL To: Poyetas Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 07:53:56 (EDT) Email Address: rafaelloring@yahoo.es Message: I second this motion too.

Subject: Re: Bobby-can the website subscribe? From: Emma To: Poyetas Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 06:25:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: All you will need is a public library card and access to the NYTimes site through the library. Access is easy, and will include all the NYTimes articles and archives. Terrific!

Subject: Re: Bobby-can the website subscribe? From: Poyetas To: Emma Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 08:58:20 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Unfortunatelly Emma I do not live in New York or the US for that matter. If someone is willing to circulate a library card number, I would be forever grateful. On another note, I wonder if subscribing through the website would be too complicated or costly. Hopefully not.

Subject: Re: Bobby-can the website subscribe? From: Emma To: Poyetas Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 10:57:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I would expect many European libraries offer access to the New York Times. The subscription to the complete Internet New York Times was 40 dollars for the year, but may now be 50 dollars. Still, I would hope that a Spanish or German library would offer access. I have access to European publications through the library. Same for Japan.

Subject: If only more had listened to Mayor Nagin From: Sir Kenneth To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 22:56:13 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: If anyone is still wondering where the most significant breakdowns occurred in dealing the onset of Hurricane Katrina, consider N.O. Mayor, Ray Nagin. If Hagin had gotten his way, which he argued for against the recommendations of the Feds and the Admiral overseeing the Katrina cleanup, one wonders how many would have suffered even more as the levies were overrun by Hurricane Rita? Nagin, for a time, insisted that people return to New Orleans, with Rita looming. He even responded to the Admiral's opposition with, 'I'm the mayor, he isn't.' What if President Bush had insisted that? One wonders what the media response would be right about now, eh?

Subject: DeLong Smackdown Watch From: Sir Kenneth To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 22:42:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Regarding the commentary on Luskin's statements: One would have to conclude, from the blogger's remarks about Donald Luskin's 'stupidity,' that the massive services sector of the U.S. Economy is worthless, and will lead us to economic ruin as no assets are being created. Not to mention the fact, that economic growth hasn't seemed to have suffered, despite years of the increasing trade deficit. This would seem hard to explain.

Subject: Re: DeLong Smackdown Watch From: Poyetas To: Sir Kenneth Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 05:51:25 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: 'Sir' Kenneth, I thought that services ARE included in the current account calculation. Am I mistaken?

Subject: Forced Marsh From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 14:02:26 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/27/opinion/27young.html?ex=1285473600&en=65acea7096b85743&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 27, 2005 Forced Marsh By ROBERT S. YOUNG and DAVID M. BUSH IN the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, there has been much talk of rebuilding Louisiana's coastal wetlands and barrier islands. This proposal, which could cost an estimated $15 billion, has been advocated by Louisiana scientists, engineers, politicians and environmentalists alike, who explain that the state is suffering the highest rate of land loss in the nation and imply that restoring this land would reduce the damage from future storms. As coastal scientists, we are excited to see the idea of wetlands restoration so widely discussed. Yet we think the Louisiana plan is ill conceived. When a major storm tears apart any coastal area, people tend to take on an attitude that we can win this 'war' with the weather if we spend enough money. Sadly, then, hurricanes often bequeath gigantic urban renewal projects. Destroyed houses are replaced by bigger ones that lack even the protection of dunes that were eroded by the storm. Within a few years, more property than ever stands at risk. Now we are being told that we should spend billions not just on rebuilding houses and roads but on re-engineering the environment as well. Louisiana's coastal scientists, engineers and politicians suggest that without this coastal restoration project, all other efforts will be endangered. But it's not that simple, for several reasons. First, many people - scientists and otherwise - have insinuated that if we had begun wetlands restoration in the Mississippi Delta years ago, it would have reduced the impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans and the coast. This is highly unlikely. Storm surge waters approached the coast from the east, pushed into Lake Pontchartrain by the counterclockwise flow of the hurricane's winds; the natural wetlands that used to exist downriver from the city would have done little to mitigate the damage. Second, some have suggested that rebuilding the Louisiana barrier islands would protect the delta region in future storms. But just look what happened elsewhere: Hurricane Katrina's storm surge quickly inundated the barrier islands of the Gulf Islands National Seashore off Mississippi, which are far more robust and vegetated than the Louisiana islands ever were, on its way to devastating the state's shoreline. Let's face it, even if reconstructed, the Louisiana islands would be little more than a speed bump to a storm the size of Hurricane Katrina. In addition, none of the restoration plans address the root causes of wetland loss: man-made alterations to the Mississippi River that reduce the amount of sediment flowing into the marshes, the saltwater allowed in by navigation canals cut through the delta, and a lowering of ground levels throughout the region brought on by natural and industrial activities. We are being sold a giant engineering project intended to fix problems caused by engineering projects elsewhere on the river and in the delta. We find it paradoxical that many of the people calling for wetland restoration are also calling for higher levees to protect populated areas, since the levees, which prevent flooding and thus the natural addition of sediment to the marshes, are a big reason the wetlands are disappearing. And even if we could rebuild these wetlands, maintaining them at a time of rising ocean levels is probably untenable. We would be creating our own little Holland, with a need for ever-more expensive construction and maintenance far into the future. Last, if the government is going to spend $15 billion on restoration, let's put all the country's wetlands on the table. We seriously doubt that any objective scientific cost-benefit review would find that spending all that money in Louisiana makes sense. We believe there are many concerned and honest advocates for the project to restore coastal Louisiana. But their effort should not be mislabeled as 'storm protection,' and we shouldn't allow our emotional response to a natural disaster to cloud our long-term thinking about the best way to spend our money on repairing America's coastal regions. Robert S. Young and David M. Bush are professors of geology at, respectively, Western Carolina University and the University of West Georgia.

Subject: Taste for Brazilian Frugality From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 14:00:53 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/27/business/worldbusiness/27beer.html?ex=1285473600&en=b0ce4b735cb523bd&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 27, 2005 Belgian Brewer Acquires a Taste for Brazilian Frugality By PAUL MELLER BRUSSELS - John F. Brock, the chief executive of InBev, the world's biggest producer of beer, has been brushing up on his Brazilian. 'Loosely translated, jinga means effortless flair,' he said last week in an interview in his office in Leuven, near Brussels. Holding up a bottle of Brahma, a beer brand that Interbrew acquired a year ago when it bought AmBev, Brazil's biggest brewer, he said he intended to sell Brahma around the world on the strength of its jinga. But AmBev's influence in last year's deal that created InBev is less about the effortless flair of Brazilian dance, style and soccer and more about the unglamorous task of cutting costs. The old Interbrew prided itself on its marketing savvy and its focus on local markets. It called itself the world's local brewer. AmBev, on the other hand, which still functions under its old name and has its shares listed on the Brazilian stock exchange, is known in the beer industry for being obsessive about efficiency. 'The sales force there all drive gray cars because it is the cheapest color,' said Concepción Moreno, an analyst at the Belgian stock broker Petercam who visited AmBev's headquarters in Brazil last week. 'The chief executive and the chief financial officer share the same desk, paper and phone calls are rationed. Cost-cutting is a way of life, not a one-off activity.' Although Interbrew has economic and voting control over AmBev, the deal was 'almost a merger of equals,' Mr. Brock said. A marketing man to the core, he added, 'Hopefully we can combine the best of both companies.' Some analysts go a step further and describe last year's deal of 9.2 billion euros, or $11.1 billion at the current conversion rate, as a reverse takeover. InBev is centralizing much of the power that Interbrew handed to local management teams around the world, Mr. Brock said. AmBev managers have been moved into major positions at InBev's headquarters in Leuven, including Felipe Dutra, AmBev's top financial manager, as InBev's chief financial officer, and Juan Vergara, AmBev's head of Latin American operations, as head of purchasing for InBev. 'It's being dubbed the 'AmBevization' of Interbrew,' Ms. Moreno said. 'When the deal was first announced, I thought the Europeans, with their reputation for being well organized, would teach the Latin Americans, but it is quite the opposite.' Mr. Brock played down the impression that the Brazilians were taking over. The reason there are more AmBev staff at InBev headquarters than Interbrew people moved to Brazil is because of language. 'English is the working language here at InBev,' Mr. Brock said, adding, 'It's easier to move into that environment than into a Portuguese-speaking one.' Nevertheless, zero-based budgeting, AmBev's term for ruthless cost-cutting, has already been applied in Canada - where InBev sells Budweiser in a licensing agreement with its maker, Anheuser-Busch, as well as brands including Labatt. Europe and Russia are next in line, followed by Korea and Ukraine. By the end of 2007 InBev aims to cut costs by 300 million euros, or $361 million, in addition to the 280 million euros, or $337 million, it hopes to save through the takeover. Like the United States, Europe poses a challenge to brewers because beer consumption here is in decline. Shrinking populations and shifting consumption to other drinks like wine and spirits have forced brewers to think creatively. Beck's, a quintessentially German beer, has been given two brand extensions in an attempt to reach younger drinkers: Beck's Gold - darker in color, less bitter taste - and Beck's Green, also less bitter with a lemony taste. Beer purists may frown, but Mr. Brock said he believed such moves were essential. 'Look at what is working in the spirits industry: Vodkas with flavors, new packaging. There is a consensus in the drinks industry that consumers are seeking more variety,' he said. Mature markets in the developed world represent a third of InBev's activities. Most business takes place in Russia, China, eastern Europe, and now, with AmBev on board, Latin America. Brazil is the fourth-largest beer market in the world, and AmBev controls more than 60 percent of sales there. Exposure to some of the fastest-growing markets in the world is a mixed blessing, though. Returns on investment are slow in coming and there is greater risk. 'Many Belgians who bought InBev stock at the beginning are disappointed because they are not seeing the benefits in the price of their shares yet,' Ms. Moreno said. But foreign investors are looking more closely at the stock, she said. Investors with shares in brewers like Heineken and Anheuser-Busch are taking a closer look at InBev now, because it is not so dependent on sales in these mature markets, she said. Mr. Brock said he was aiming to achieve the highest profit margin in the business. 'We looked at Anheuser-Busch, with their strong record of cost-efficiency in the United States, and calculated that they must have a profit margin of 29 percent, so we set our target at 30 percent by the end of 2007,' he said. The company will still look for acquisition targets in developing markets it already occupies, especially in Russia, where Mr. Brock said brewing capacity was having trouble keeping up with demand. But InBev is also looking at new markets, he said. The company has no presence in Mexico, Vietnam or Thailand, three of the biggest emerging beer markets. 'They are on our list of markets we will enter in time,' Mr. Brock said. Perhaps with the help of the superefficient Brazilians, those moves may come sooner rather than later.

Subject: David Swensen From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 13:18:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: September 6, 2005 Yale Manager Blasts Industry By TOM LAURICELLA - WALL STREET JOURNAL WSJ: You had hoped to give small investors a road map for beating the market based on Yale's approach to investing. What happened? Mr. Swensen: I found when I started down that path that individuals just don't have the same set of investment opportunities available to them that we do here at Yale. In fact, the evidence showed me that the mutual-fund industry has completely failed to provide reasonable active-management returns to individuals. WSJ: To say that it completely failed -- that's a pretty harsh statement to make. Mr. Swensen: I think the evidence is there. The crux of the failure is with the for-profit management of funds for individuals. Mutual-fund managers have a fiduciary responsibility to investors. Obviously, if they are operating in a for-profit mode, they have a profit motive. When you put the profit motive up against fiduciary responsibility, that fiduciary responsibility loses and profits win. WSJ: But the investment managers that Yale hires -- or any other institutional investor hires -- are out to make money. Mr. Swensen: But there it's a fair fight. In the context of Yale, you've got a sophisticated institutional investor on the one hand and a for-profit provider of investment services on the other hand. And we can go toe-to-toe and end up with a fair result. If you look at Yale's history over the last 20 years, we have excellent results in terms of active-management returns. The problem in the mutual-fund industry is that you've got a sophisticated provider of investment services on the one hand and, on the other, you have an unsophisticated consumer. That imbalance leads to behaviors that line the pockets of mutual-fund managers and at the expense of the individual investor. WSJ: What is some of the evidence that you believe shows that mutual funds have failed small investors? Mr. Swensen: The data I cite in the book was put together and analyzed by Rob Arnott (chairman of manager Research Affiliates LLC). He adjusts for survivorship bias, an incredibly important phenomenon. If you don't do that, you are going to get a false picture of what the world looks like. WSJ: So if you look at the regular data on fund performance, you're not seeing the whole story? Mr. Swensen: You're not seeing the losers that disappear. They could disappear because they go out of business or because cynical managers of mutual funds will take poorly performing funds and merge them into better-performing funds, and so the record of the poor performer disappears. The picture that you get if you just look at the survivors is dominated by the winners -- but of course investor dollars were invested with the losers that disappeared. And if you look at the aggregate results of the mutual-fund industry on an after-fee, after-tax basis and adjust it for survivorship bias, the probability that you are going to end up with market-beating returns is de minimus. According to (Mr. Arnott's data), the 10-year after-tax shortfall for mutual funds is 4.5% per year relative to what you would have gotten if you had put your money in an index fund. That doesn't even take into account the fees for advice ... which takes you from a de minimus probability to a virtual certainty that you will end up losing relative to the market. WSJ: What keeps funds from living up to their promise? Mr. Swensen: So many of the behaviors that lead to high-quality investment performance diminish (managers') profits. For example, size is the enemy of performance. If you limit assets under management, you have a much better chance of beating the market. But asset gathering improves profits. So what happens? Almost invariably, managers are out there gathering assets, trying to increase profits, and it comes at the expense of generating investment returns. Concentration is another important factor in generating high levels of incremental returns. We have managers in Yale's portfolio that will hold three or four or five stocks, or maybe eight or 10 stocks. You have to have an enormous amount of conviction, and you have to really believe that you have got an edge to make those kinds of concentrated bets. But it's not sensible for a mutual fund to do that from a business perspective because the volatility of the results relative to the market will be way too great, and the manager of the mutual fund will likely not be able to amass the same level of assets they would if they pursued a much more diversified strategy. It also doesn't scale. If you are trying to run a concentrated portfolio and have a huge amount of assets under management, you just can't do it. One of the best managers out there has had as few as three securities and never more than 10. If you're Fidelity Magellan, with $50 billion or $60 billion, there's no way you can just put three stocks in the portfolio. As we're going down the laundry list of reasons why mutual funds fail, you have to talk about the turnover in the portfolios. A very significant portion of assets in mutual funds are taxable, and the overwhelming majority of mutual-fund assets appear to be managed with complete indifference to the tax consequences. It's probably not criminal, but it should be. WSJ: But there are portfolio managers who practice a very low-turnover, high-conviction style of managing mutual funds. Mr. Swensen: Southeastern Asset Management (manager of Longleaf Partners Funds) is one, and there are probably a handful of others. But that brings us to the second set of problems, which has to do with the way that individuals behave. I looked at the results of three years before and three years after the technology-stock bubble. If you looked at the stated investment returns, they went up for three years and went down for three years. So the results over the six-year period were basically zero -- no harm, no foul. Then you look at the cash flows. Because people chased performance, the overwhelming fund flows occurred in '99 and 2000. So individuals bought in right at the top and ended up suffering in the downturn. There was massive wealth destruction. Even though Southeastern does a wonderful job of managing ... they suffered substantial withdrawals in '99 and 2000 because investors were disenchanted with the low turnover, concentrated, steady-as-she-goes strategy. WSJ: You have issue with fees charges by funds as well. Mr. Swensen: Not only the investment-management fees but the 12b-1 fees, which are completely at odds with investor interests. You are out there charging fees for marketing and distribution, and so you are charging the investor for adding assets under management -- which ultimately hurts the investor's prospective returns. It's a very sweet deal for the mutual-fund industry, and it's terrible for the investor. WSJ: The fund industry says without these fees, it couldn't attract investors. Mr. Swensen: That was the argument when the SEC allowed them quite a number of years ago. I thought it was a specious argument and viewed it without merit then, and it certainly doesn't have merit now. WSJ: Some of these fees go to compensate financial advisers. Those folks are providing a service, so don't they need to be paid? Mr. Swensen: The amount that people pay for financial advice relative to the quality of what they get is totally out of whack. WSJ: For individuals, given the way the fund industry operates, you argue that they should be focusing on the not-for-profit companies and index funds such as Vanguard Group and TIAA-CREF. (Mr. Swensen is on the board of TIAA, but isn't directly responsible for mutual funds, which fall under CREF.) What does that get you? Mr. Swensen: Well it doesn't give you much to talk about at cocktail parties! It gets you a well-diversified equity-oriented portfolio that ought to be good for all seasons. WSJ: When it comes to diversifying a portfolio, you have somewhat unconventional asset-allocation recommendations. Mr. Swensen: When I arrived here 20 years ago, we had a pretty typical institutional portfolio, maybe two-thirds in domestic stocks and another big chunk in domestic bonds and a smattering of alternatives. And if you apply the principle of diversification and the notion of the equity orientation to these portfolios...they fail the test of diversification because there is a huge chunk in domestic equities, and they generally fail the test of equity orientation because there is too much in fixed income and cash. Currently at Yale, we've got a half a dozen asset classes with weights ranging between 5% and 25%. And I identify a half dozen asset classes that individuals ought to have in their portfolio. Traditional bonds, inflation-indexed bonds, domestic equities, foreign-developed equities, emerging-market equities and real-estate securities. WSJ: You argue investors should have just 30% in domestic stocks. But most people think 'I'm a super-long-term investor, so I'm going to be loaded to the gills with domestic stocks or just stocks.' Mr. Swensen: There are lots of ways you can produce equity-like returns without exposure to domestic stocks. So the foreign equities and foreign emerging equities and the real-estate positions ought to produce returns that are not dissimilar from those of U.S. stocks over reasonably long periods of time. It's important to point out that one size doesn't fit all and individual circumstance could lead an individual to hold a portfolio that would differ from the one that we're talking about right here. WSJ: If you like index funds, where do exchange-traded funds fit in? Mr. Swensen: To the extent that ETFs are focused on index management -- with the provision that the indexes are well-structured indexes -- I think they are absolutely great. It's another low-cost, even more tax-sensitive investment that people can use to implement a sensible asset allocation. But as they have grown in popularity, the waters have been polluted by a variety of ETFs that have essentially active-management components and poor fee structures. So it's a circumstance where buyers need to beware. WSJ: Most average investors think an index is an index. What should they be on the lookout for? Mr. Swensen: The S&P 500 is a well-structured index because it has relative low turnover and the low turnover leads to reasonable tax characteristics. But the Russell 2000, which consists of stocks ranked by market capitalization...as defined once a year, has ridiculous characteristics. The turnover is extraordinarily high. In a market that you expect will rise over time, it will have very poor tax consequences. It's very widespread and used a lot but ridiculously, poorly constructed.

Subject: Time to Connect the Dots From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 13:11:27 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/28/opinion/28wed1.html September 28, 2005 Time to Connect the Dots Along with ruined homes and upended trees, the recent hurricanes left behind a revived debate about global warming. While some environmentalists point to the wreckage as a kind of retribution for America's failure to control greenhouse gas emissions, right-wing talk show hosts repeat, over and over, that even if global warming did exist, there is no proof it had anything to do with Rita and Katrina. In a way, they're all right. It is impossible to link Katrina or Rita, or any particular hurricane, specifically to global warming. This does not mean that President Bush and the rest of us should not be connecting the dots. These are natural disasters - but with human fingerprints. Hurricanes derive their strength from warm ocean waters. Ocean temperatures have been rising over the last 100 years, along with atmospheric temperatures. Hurricanes have therefore become bigger and more destructive and are likely to grow even more violent in the future. This cycle cannot be reversed any time soon. But one thing humans can do is to reduce their own contribution to global warming by controlling industrial emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The alarm bells have been ringing for a long time, but Katrina and Rita should serve as yet another warning to an administration that has belittled the science of global warming. The emerging hurricane problem is size, not quantity. The scientists who have studied the issue have not detected any increase in the number of hurricanes. Yet these same scientists - in research reports appearing in reputable journals like Science, Nature and The Journal of Climate - have detected increases of up to 70 percent in hurricane intensity, a measure that combines the power of a hurricane and its duration. There has been a commensurate increase in damage, mainly because more and more people have stubbornly put themselves at risk by moving to low-lying coastal areas. But the hurricanes' added strength has clearly contributed to the ever-higher toll in lives and property damage. Being cautious folk, the scientists point out that cyclical lulls and surges in hurricane activity may also have something to do with stronger storms. But even if they are completely wrong in linking warming to intensity, which seems unlikely, global warming will have other undesirable consequences, including a significant rise in sea level. In the last century, sea level rose 4 to 8 inches around the world, and most scientists expect a further rise of 2 to 3 feet in this century. According to one government study, a 20-inch rise in sea level by 2100 could put 3,500 square miles of the southern coast of the United States underwater - rendering efforts to restore the Everglades and the Louisiana coastline essentially pointless. A large-scale breakup of the polar ice sheets would, of course, make matters much worse. Dikes could protect some regions, like Manhattan and the Netherlands, but most coastlines would be inundated. Humanity cannot avoid a warmer Earth and some rise in sea level, largely because of the gases we have already deposited in the atmosphere. But the worst outcomes may be avoided if the world takes concerted action to stabilize industrial emissions of greenhouse gases. This, of course, presupposes aggressive leadership from the United States, which produces more than a quarter of these emissions. But this is a role that Mr. Bush has shown no appetite for at all.

Subject: In Heeding Health Warnings From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 09:34:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/27/health/27cons.html?ex=1285473600&en=eba5e4d4fc481c0a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 27, 2005 In Heeding Health Warnings, Memory Can Be Tricky By DEBORAH FRANKLIN In briefing consumers on health risks, public health campaigns often rely on a catchy strategy: they list the myths about a behavior or product, then follow up those misconceptions with the truth. Check any Internet search engine and you will find 'myths and facts' on health topics like abortion, acne, vaccines and weight loss. But new research suggests that even the sharpest consumer can be tripped up by these warnings because of a flaw in the way we remember what we read or are told. As time passes, the studies show, people remember the health information they were given. But they forget which part was myth, and which was the truth. Experts say consumers and doctors need to be aware of this problem so they can make sure that quirks of memory do not harm anyone's health. 'Here's what happens,' said Ian Skurnik, a psychologist and assistant professor of marketing at the University of Toronto, who worked with colleagues from the University of Michigan to study the phenomenon. 'You notice that your grandmother has been taking useless medical treatments, and you're worried,' he said. 'You tell her, 'You know, Granny, shark cartilage doesn't help your arthritis.' You tell her three times to make sure she understands, and she seems to.' He continued, 'But a few days later you talk to her again and find the warnings have had precisely the opposite effect of what you intended.' This common problem arises, Dr. Skurnik said, because in laying down a memory trace, the human brain seems to encode the memory of the claim separately from its context - who said it, when and other particulars, including the important fact that the claim is not true. The detailed memory of the experience of learning the information begins to fade almost immediately, and the contextual clues fade faster than the core claim. 'Long after you've forgotten the context, the claim will still seem vaguely familiar,' Dr. Skurnik said. That is when a well-documented effect that Dr. Skurnik calls 'the illusion of truth' kicks in. Numerous studies over the last few decades have shown that unless people have some countervailing context or information to grab hold of, they tend to regard information that seems familiar as true. To test the power of that effect related to health claims, Dr. Skurnik and colleagues gave 64 volunteers a few dozen bits of unrelated medical information that they were unlikely to have heard before, like 'Corn chips contain twice as much fat as potato chips' and 'Aspirin destroys tooth enamel.' The researchers arbitrarily labeled half the statements false and half as true. Each item was read aloud and simultaneously presented on a computer screen at least once, but half the items appeared three times within the list. Half the volunteers were college students ages 18 to 25. The others were healthy adults, ages 71 to 86. Thirty minutes after the volunteers had seen the information, the researchers showed them another list of items that contained all the previous statements, with some new items mixed in. They were asked to identify which statements were false, which were true and which were new. The same kind of quiz was repeated three days later. The results, published in the March 2005 issue of The Journal of Consumer Research, showed that the older adults were much more likely than the younger ones to misremember the false statements as true, an effect that was exacerbated three days later. What's more, having seen a statement three times in the initial list helped the younger people remember it correctly, but made things worse for the older volunteers. 'Even quite elderly people remain good detectors of information that's new, versus something they have seen before,' Dr. Skurnik said. 'But in this case, that ability worked against them.' The repetition of a warning underscored its familiarity. The implications of the findings are not limited to older people, Dr. Skurnik said. In a follow-up study not yet published, he and his colleagues presented college-age volunteers with a health information pamphlet from the Web site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, called 'Is It a Flu Shot Fact or Myth?' In boldface type, the pamphlet contained eight statements about the flu vaccine - six labeled false, one true and one 'maybe.' Each statement was followed by a sentence or two of explanation in smaller type. 'Immediately after reading the flier, participants made few mistakes in recalling whether a particular statement from the flyer was described as a fact or myth, and there was no difference in the type of mistake,' the researchers reported. 'However,' the researchers continued, 'after a half an hour, participants were much more likely to misremember a fact as a myth.' 'I think the message to physicians from this study and others is that even if you have lots to tell your patient in an office visit, you have to tell them several ways and over time to make sure they understand,' said Dr. Joanne Schwartzberg, who oversees the health literacy program of the American Medical Association. Dr. Schwartzberg advises patients never to worry about saying to a doctor: ' 'Wait a minute, I need a little more time to see if I've got that right. When I go home, you want me to do this; is that right?' ' Putting complicated health instructions in your own words and repeating them aloud should help anchor the information accurately in your memory. But Dr. Skurnik said, 'Don't trust your memory.' Office visits are often time-pressured, anxiety-provoking, and packed with new and technical information - exactly the conditions most likely to jumble a memory of what was said. Whenever possible, get written information from the doctor, he said, and take a notebook to appointments to jot down instructions. It can also help to take along a friend or family member. Patients under the intense stress of a new diagnosis may be those most likely to scan headlines and sift through Web pages in search of information. Print out what you read online, Dr. Skurnik suggested, so that you can go back later and identify the source of the information, as well as the particulars. And doctors, he said, would do well to make sure that anything they hand out is written in simple, direct factual language. 'It's not enough to ensure that people get good information from credible sources,' Dr. Skurnik said. 'You also have to make sure that they'll be able to recall whether it's true or false later on.'

Subject: For Survivors of Cancer From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 06:12:10 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/health/article-page.html?res=9406EFDB163BF935A35754C0A9629C8B63&fta=y July 6, 2004 For Survivors of Cancer, All Calories Are Not Equal By JANE E. BRODY After her third battle with cancer, Diana Dyer decided she needed something more than surgery and chemotherapy to keep the disease at bay. During treatment, she ate whatever she could tolerate to get the calories her body needed. But afterward, her goal was to use diet to minimize the risk of recurrence. She searched the scientific literature for guidance and developed a plan based, she recognized, on ''very little clinical science'' but on the best science available. She increased her exercise; reduced her alcohol intake; avoided saturated fats in animal foods and the trans and hydrogenated fats in processed foods; switched to olive and canola oils; gave up red meats and poultry but ate more soy foods, fatty fish and eggs, rich in omega-3 fatty acids; doubled her fiber intake through whole grains, legumes and nine or more servings a day of fruits and vegetables; replaced diet sodas with tomato and orange juice, and green tea; stuck to low-fat dairy products; and added nuts and flax seeds to her diet. She describes her plan, including what to do when eating out, in a book, ''A Dietitian's Cancer Story'' (Swan Press, $15.95), and offers two weeks of menus and recipes on her Web site, www.cancerrd.com. Part of the sales of the book benefit the American Institute for Cancer Research. The book can be ordered through the institute at (800)843-8114. Also helpful on the subject is the American Cancer Society's publication ''Nutrition for the Person With Cancer: A Guide for Patients and Families,'' available by calling (800)ACS-2345. Will Ms. Dyer's approach help keep her free of cancer? So far she has been healthy. And the diet will lower her risk of heart disease. A diagnosis of cancer is a wake-up call for many people. Hoping to maximize their chances of survival, however, many patients turn to strange diets, supplements and herbal remedies with little or no scientific evidence to establish their worth. Some may be harmful. To help health care providers and their patients make the best choices based on the best available evidence, three years ago the American Cancer Society published in the journal CA a guide on nutrition during and after cancer treatment. It was designed to help the more than 1.2 million people who each year receive cancer diagnoses and the more than nine million Americans who have thus far survived cancer. The article is online (caonline.amcancersoc.org) or can be found in the May/June 2001 issue. In addition to the nutritional advantages gained from the suggested dietary measures, making improvements in living habits has important psychological benefits by helping patients regain a sense of control over their lives. During Treatment Current approaches to cancer treatment -- surgery, radiation and chemotherapy -- may not only change a person's nutritional needs but also interfere with the ability to consume, digest, absorb and assimilate food. In most cases, cancer treatment increases a person's caloric needs while making it more challenging to meet them. Small, frequent meals and snacks and foods that are easy to chew, swallow, digest and absorb -- and that are appealing -- are recommended, even if they are high in calories or fat. This is not a time to try to lose weight or worry about how healthful foods might be. Meeting one's caloric needs is the primary goal; during treatment, it is often helpful to add beverages like Ensure or Boost as temporary aids. Cancer patients are also urged to engage in light, regular physical activity to counter fatigue; to stimulate appetite and digestion; to prevent constipation; to maintain energy and muscle mass; to provide relaxation; and to reduce stress. But the cancer society's experts warn against consuming high levels of certain supplements that may do more harm than good. Folic acid, for example, can interfere with the action of some chemotherapeutic drugs, like methotrexate, that act as folic acid antagonists. And high doses of antioxidants, like vitamins C and E, which patients sometimes take in hope of protecting normal cells, may reduce the effectiveness of therapies that work by causing oxidative damage to cancer cells. The experts recommend as a prudent approach during treatment ''not to exceed the upper limits of the Dietary Reference Intakes for vitamin supplements and to avoid other nutritional supplements that contain antioxidant compounds.'' Cancer treatment often suppresses immune responses, and so it is also important to pay particular attention to food safety. Do not eat raw fish or undercooked meats and poultry or drink unpasteurized juices; rinse all fruits and vegetables; and protect foods eaten uncooked from the drippings or utensils used on raw meats, poultry and seafood. Once active treatment ends, the goal is to rebuild muscle strength and correct problems like anemia that may have been caused by treatment. Again, this is not a time to diet; the emphasis should be on eating healthful foods. Although daily exercise may not prevent recurrence or slow the progression of cancer, the experts note that it can ''reduce anxiety and depression, improve mood, improve self-esteem and reduce symptoms of fatigue, nausea, pain and diarrhea.'' Eating for Good Health The cancer society experts say, ''There is no evidence to support fasting as a healthy practice during cancer treatment or beyond.'' Vegetarian diets and macrobiotic diets based on whole grains, fruits and vegetables, beans, fermented soy products, nuts, seeds and teas ''can be consistent with a healthy diet'' as long as consumers are careful to take in enough calories and essential nutrients. But the experts found ''no data to support the claim that a macrobiotic diet reduces cancer incidence or recurrence'' any more than the less restricted regimen the society recommends, which includes animal protein foods in moderation. Although a one-a-day type of multivitamin-mineral supplement can help compensate for nutrient shortfalls, the experts advise against doses above the recommended intake for any nutrient. ''There is no evidence that any nutritional supplement can reproduce the apparent benefits of a diet high in vegetables and fruits,'' the experts say. Alcohol is best avoided or consumed in moderation -- at most a drink a day for women, two for men -- since it is associated with an increased risk of breast, lung and digestive cancers. Purple grape juice helps protect against heart disease. Teas are all right for cancer survivors, as long as they are made from plants that are ordinarily used for foods or beverages. Caffeine is all right, too; it has no link to cancer. The jury is still out on the benefits and risks of estrogen-rich soy foods for survivors of breast and prostate cancers, though they are not believed to be hazardous when consumed in moderation, say, at one meal a day. But breast cancer survivors should avoid supplements of soy concentrates and isoflavones. High-fat diets, in general, are not advisable for cancer survivors, or for anyone. In place of animal-derived fats and polyunsaturates, some experts recommend monounsaturates like olive and canola oils and the fats in avocados, nuts and fish, which have been associated with protection against cancer and heart disease. Foods high in sugars may have no adverse effect on cancer, but they have limited nutrient value and often supplant more healthful foods. As Ms. Dyer discovered, until there is evidence to the contrary, eating lots of fruits and vegetables and whole grains rich in potentially protective fiber and phytochemicals should be the goal for all cancer survivors. In fact, for everyone.

Subject: Which of These Foods Will Stop Cancer? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 05:57:59 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/27/health/27canc.html?ex=1285473600&en=faa02f09bd83a2bc&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 27, 2005 Which of These Foods Will Stop Cancer? (Not So Fast) By GINA KOLATA Leslie Michelson does not have prostate cancer, but as chief executive officer of the Prostate Cancer Foundation he knows all too well how bad the disease is. So Mr. Michelson, 54, changed his diet. He used to avoid cruciferous vegetables, like cauliflower and brussels sprouts, hating their taste. Now he has them three or four times a week. He rarely ate fish, but now has it three times a week. He eats tomato sauce at least twice a week. 'I'm persuaded that with prostate cancer, diet makes a difference,' he said. Mr. Michelson is one of a growing number of people worried about cancer - because it is in their families or because they have seen friends suffer with the disease - who are turning to diets for protection. Cancer patients, doctors say, almost always ask what to eat to reduce their chances of dying from the disease. The diet messages are everywhere: the National Cancer Institute has an 'Eat 5 to 9 a Day for Better Health' program, the numbers referring to servings of fruits and vegetables, and the Prostate Cancer Foundation has a detailed anticancer diet. Yet despite the often adamant advice, scientists say they really do not know whether dietary changes will make a difference. And there lies a quandary for today's medicine. It is turning out to be much more difficult than anyone expected to discover if diet affects cancer risk. Hypotheses abound, but convincing evidence remains elusive. Most of the proposed dietary changes are unlikely to be harmful - less meat, more fish, more fruits and vegetables and less fat. And these changes in diet may help protect against heart disease, even if they have no effect on cancer. So should people who are worried about cancer be told to follow these guidelines anyway, because they may work and will probably not hurt? Or should the people be told that the evidence just is not there, so they should not deceive themselves? Dr. Barnett Kramer, deputy director in the office of disease prevention at the National Institutes of Health, said: 'Over time, the messages on diet and cancer have been ratcheted up until they are almost co-equal with the smoking messages. I think a lot of the public is completely unaware that the strength of the message is not matched by the strength of the evidence.' But Dr. Arthur Schatzkin, chief of the nutritional epidemiology branch in the National Cancer Institute division of cancer epidemiology and genetics, said people wanted answers, even if they are not are not definitive. 'It is not enough to say that, well, this is complicated science and maybe in seven or eight years we will have new methods in place' that might resolve the issues, Dr. Schatzkin said. 'We have a responsibility to give the best advice we can while pointing out where the evidence is uncertain and how we're working to improve the science.' That, however, is little consolation to cancer patients and family members who are terrified that cancer might strike them next. And there are more and more. As the population ages, the number of cancer patients is soaring. From 1997 to 2004, the number of Americans with cancer jumped, to 9.6 million from 9.4 million. Cancer strikes one in two men and one in three women in their lifetimes. Most people want some sort of control, a way to prevent the disease from ever striking them or, if it does strike, to keep it from recurring. Many think of diet as a strategy. Cassindy Chao, 36, of Oakland, Calif., said cancer runs in her family. Her mother has ovarian cancer and her grandmother died of the disease. 'I am absolutely frantic about it,' she said. Ms. Chao has made substantial changes in her diet, for example, drinking carrot juice, loading up on green and leafy vegetables and switching to organic meats. 'Some people might want to wait for the evidence, but I've noticed it takes a while,' Ms. Chao said. 'I'm not going to wait.' Dr. Tim E. Byers, a professor of preventive medicine at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center in Denver, was convinced that up to 20 percent of cancers were being caused by diet and he wanted to be part of the exciting new research that would prove it. 'I felt we were really on the cusp of important new discoveries about food and how the right choice of foods would improve cancer risk,' Dr. Byers sad. That was 25 years ago, when the evidence was pointing to diet. For example, cross-country comparisons of cancer rates suggested a dietary influence. 'For prostate cancer, if you look around the world, there might be 50-fold or greater differences in rates; they're huge,' said Dr. Meier Stampfer, a professor of epidemiology and nutrition at the Harvard School of Public Health. 'There are also big differences, many-fold differences, around the world for breast cancer and colon cancer.' And when people move from low risk countries to high risk countries, they or their children acquire the cancer rates of their new countries. At the same time, some cancers were inexplicably becoming more common or, just as inexplicably, fading away in the United States. In 1930, for instance, stomach cancer was the second leading cause of cancer death in women and the leading cause in men. Now, Dr. Stampfer says, stomach cancer is not even listed in the American Cancer Society's 10 leading cancers. 'So people think, 'What's happened in the past 70 years to make that change?' ' he said. 'Diet comes to mind.' There were also differences in diets in countries where cancer rates were high and in those with low rates. With breast cancer, for example, researchers could draw a straight line directly relating the amount of fat in the diet to the rate of breast cancer in the population. 'People looked at it and said, 'Here it is - fat causes breast cancer,' ' Dr. Stampfer said. Next came studies that compared the diets of people who developed cancer to the diets of those who did not. Those studies, Dr. Schatzkin said, tended to show that dietary fiber protected against colon cancer, that fruits and vegetables protected against colon and other cancers and that a low-fat diet protected against breast cancer. There were, of course, a few nagging questions. For example, people who had cancer might remember their diets differently. 'Whenever people get cancer, the first thing they ask is, 'Why me?' ' Dr. Stampfer said. 'And then they try to answer that question.' If colon cancer patients heard that fiber protected against colon cancer, for example, they might recall eating less fiber than people without cancer. Dr. Stampfer said evidence from one of his studies indicated that was occurring, at least with fat and breast cancer. But, he said, when he published a paper saying so, 'a lot of people didn't believe it.' The best studies are the hardest to conduct: prospective studies that that follow healthy people for years instead of looking backward and relying on memory. Even better - and harder and more expensive - are studies that randomly assign people to follow a particular diet or not. But those more difficult studies were well worth doing, researchers said. And as more studies started, scientists hoped for definitive evidence that diet affected cancer. The Fiber Theory But as the results from those studies have begun to roll in, many researchers say they are taken aback. The findings, they say, are not what they expected. Fat in the diet, the studies found, made no difference for breast cancer. 'For fat and breast cancer, almost all of the prospective studies were null,' Dr. Schatzkin said. Fiber, in the form of fruits and vegetables, seemed to have a weak effect or no effect on colon cancer. The more definitive randomized controlled trials were disappointing, too, with one exception. A study reported in May found that women with early stage breast cancer who followed a low-fat diet had a 20 percent lower risk of recurrence. Even so, the effects were just marginally statistically significant. The study's principal investigator, Dr. Rowan Chlebowski of the Harbor-U.C.L.A. Medical Center, said it needed to be repeated before scientists would be convinced. Nonetheless, the study contrasted sharply with those preceding it. Several involved beta carotene and antioxidant vitamins like C and E, substances that scientists thought were the protective agent in fruits and vegetables. The idea was that antioxidants could mop up free radicals in the body, which left unchecked could damage DNA, causing cancer. Beta carotene was of special interest. People who ate lots of fruits and vegetables had more beta carotene in their blood, and the more beta carotene in the blood, the lower the cancer risk. But a four-year study that asked whether beta carotene, with or without vitamins C and E, could protect against colon polyps, from which most colon cancers start, found no effect. People who took either beta carotene, vitamin C, vitamin E or all three had virtually identical rates of new polyps compared to participants taking dummy pills. Another study, of 22,000 doctors randomly assigned to take beta carotene or a placebo, looked for an effect on any and all cancers. It found nothing. Two more, involving current and former smokers, found that those taking beta carotene actually had slightly higher lung cancer rates than those taking placebos. Studies of fiber and colon cancer were similarly disappointing. The fiber hypothesis had enormous appeal. Carcinogens from food can end up in stool. But when people eat a lot of fiber, their stool is bulkier and so carcinogens would be diluted. Bulkier stool is also excreted faster, reducing the time that the colon is in contact with cancer-causing substances. Fiber also binds bile acids in the bowel, substances that can damage the colon and, possibly, result in cancer. And the intestines metabolize fiber into short-chain fatty acids that seemed protective against cancer. Adding to the case for fiber was the fact that when researchers fed rodents carcinogens, the animals were protected against colon cancer if they also ate a lot of fiber. Based on these indications, the cancer institute financed two studies on high-fiber diets and colon polyps. In one, 2,079 people were randomly assigned to eat low-fat high-fiber diets or to follow their usual diets. In the other, 1,429 people were assigned to eat high-fiber bran cereals or wheat bran fiber or to eat cereal and bars that looked and tasted the same but that were low on fiber. Fiber, the studies found, had no effect. 'We had high expectations and good rationale,' Dr. Schatzkin said. But, he said, 'we got absolutely null results.' Now, the largest randomized study ever of diet and cancer is nearing completion, involving 48,835 middle-age and elderly women. The women were randomly assigned to follow a low-fat diet with five servings a day of fruits and vegetables and two of grains or to follow their usual diet. The question was whether the experimental diet could prevent breast cancer. The study is part of the Women's Health Initiative, a large federal project. When it began, the dietary fat hypothesis was ascendant. But after it was under way, other, less definitive studies failed to find any association between dietary fat and breast cancer. The Women's Health Initiative diet study's results should be ready early next year, said its principle investigator, Ross L. Prentice, a biostatistics professor at Seattle's Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. And if it fails to find an effect? Dr. Prentice said he would still wonder. Maybe what matters is diet earlier in life, he said, or maybe the women in the study did not stick to their diets. Others say they suspect they were simply na�ve about the cross-country comparisons that persuaded them in the first place. 'People drew inferences that were in retrospect overenthusiastic,' Dr. Stampfer said. 'You could plot G.N.P. against cancer and get a very similar graph, or telephone poles. Any marker of Western civilization gives you the same relationship.' Because of the striking differences in daily life between people in countries with high cancer rates and those in countries with low rates, diet may have nothing to do with the incidence of the disease, Dr. Schatzkin said. Or diet may play a large role but the questionnaires used to measure what people were eating might have been inadequate to find it. 'That's the problem.' Dr. Schatzkin said. 'We just don't know.' As for Dr. Byers, who once had such high hopes for the diet and cancer hypotheses, he says he is sadder now, but wiser. 'The progress has been different than I would have predicted,' Dr. Byers said. Specific food can affect general health, he added, but as for a major role in cancer, he doubts it. He now believes that it is the amount of food people eat, not specific foods or types of foods, that may make a difference. 'I think the truth may be that particular food choices are not as important as I thought they were,' Dr. Byers said. Individual Approaches Meanwhile, patients and those worried about cancer are adopting their own idiosyncratic dietary paths. Many know that the evidence is not solid, but they would rather take a chance that their diets will make a difference than wait helplessly for their fates to play out. That is the view of John Napolitano, a New York graphic designer and marketer. Three years ago, when he was 55, Mr. Napolitano found out that he had prostate cancer and that it had spread to his bones. Now, hoping to slow its progress, he avoids sugar and fat and almost never eats meat. He eats natural and organic foods. He drinks lots of water and green tea. He starts each day by whipping up a smoothie with a protein supplement and flaxseed. 'My diet is very different now than what it was three years ago,' Mr. Napolitano said, adding that thinks that his new diet helped. 'Until recently, I was totally symptom free,' he said. 'I can't endorse anything I'm doing, but I've never had nausea, never had constipation' from his treatments. Dr. Brad Efron, a professor of statistics at Stanford, has a different dietary approach. He does not have prostate cancer, but he had a couple of scares and he has friends who have it. So he is taking selenium, a trace mineral found in plants. A study that randomly assigned people to take selenium or not to see whether it protected against skin cancer found that it had no effect on that cancer, but that the men taking it had only a third as many prostate cancers. Now, the National Cancer Institute is conducting a study on whether selenium protects against prostate cancer. Dr. Efron chose not to wait. He even published a statistical analysis concluding that the prostate effect was likely to be real. 'One of my colleagues said, 'Why do you think something that people thought would work on skin cancer has anything to do with you?' ' he said. 'There's always a leap of faith. But I'm scared of prostate cancer and I wanted psychological reassurance.'

Subject: Re: Which of These Foods Will Stop Cancer? From: stuart munro To: Emma Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 10:12:33 (EDT) Email Address: stuart-munro@clear.net.nz Message: There's a lot of progress on cancer at present, much of it spun off the immunological work on HIV. Dendritic cell therapies and the like. But this article is not especially good, Japan and Korea suffer disproportionately from stomach and bowel cancer, which is apparently related not directly to diet, but to the occurrence of helicobacter pylori, also a major culprit in ulcers. Melanoma, the fastest growing cancer in the west, is not evidently linked to dietary change, though it might be hard to tell. The vitamin therapy concept is pretty much mysticism - not to say it might not work, but that surprisingly little work has been done on it. Equally, little work has been done on the erosion in nutritive value of battery farmed chicken and eggs, but taste differences suggest significant differences from free range birds with access to chlorophyl. So the article tells us...?

Subject: Re: Which of These Foods Will Stop Cancer? From: Emma To: stuart munro Date Posted: Thurs, Sep 29, 2005 at 10:59:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank! I will find better articles, for this subject is quite important.

Subject: Re: Which of These Foods Will Stop Cancer? From: stuart munro To: Emma Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 09:22:21 (EDT) Email Address: stuart-munro@clear.net.nz Message: Sorry, I didn't mean just to kibbitz. A lot of research folk are increasingly looking at the genetic angle, something along the lines of susceptibility plus exposure plus poor immune response = C. Of course, they do their work on GE cultured susceptible mice, so genetics is alaways in their face. Melanoma mostly runs from childhood exposure & sunburn - because it often takes twenty years or so to develop. But the rise? We can't even make good guesses. (I was teaching a couple of research fellows & had my ignorance suitably excoriated)

Subject: Implant Program for Heart Device From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 05:50:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/27/business/27heart.html?ex=1285473600&en=cdf55577e90d70d4&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 27, 2005 Implant Program for Heart Device Was a Sales Spur By BARRY MEIER By January, about 80 cardiologists nationwide completed an evaluation run by the Guidant Corporation of one of its products, an improved electrical component, known as a lead, that connects an implanted cardiac device to the heart. In exchange for implanting the lead in three patients and completing five survey forms, each physician received $1,000 from Guidant. 'The primary purpose of the study was to get feedback on how well the system worked,' said Dr. Wayne O. Adkisson, a cardiologist in Portsmouth, Va., who took part. The program did generate feedback. But internal Guidant documents and e-mail messages provided to The New York Times suggest that the initiative also had another apparent goal - increasing sales of the company's most sophisticated and expensive heart devices. Those devices are advanced pacemakers called cardiac resynchronization therapy devices, or C.R.T.'s. They cost about $29,000 each. The program proved so successful in increasing Guidant C.R.T. sales that when the survey ended in January, company executives sent around congratulatory e-mail messages, the records show. 'It generated 300 implants,' one January e-mail message stated. 'Let's say that just 25% were incremental ... that yields >$2 million in new sales with physicians who are not necessarily Guidant friendly. We paid each physician who completed all five surveys $1,000 so our total cost was $80,000.' In a statement, Guidant said that it ran surveys like the lead evaluation to generate data on how doctors use company products so that it could improve future models. Critics of the industry have long charged that some companies have used research studies to mask what are really marketing efforts that provide financial incentives to doctors to get them to use a new drug. Now, the Guidant documents and recent interviews suggest that the line between research and product promotion may also be blurring where heart devices are concerned. A C.R.T. regulates the beating of one side of the heart independently from the other. The Guidant lead was intended to be easier to use and to reduce the chronic hiccupping that some implant patients develop when a lead from a C.R.T. is placed too close to a nerve. The Guidant records indicate that many doctors approached by the company to take part in its lead study were not those who regularly implanted its heart devices, but rather those more apt to use the units of competitors. Though the agreement signed by doctors taking part in the lead evaluation did not explicitly require them to implant a Guidant C.R.T. along with the lead, they effectively had to do so because of software-related issues. One Guidant document is a chart that indicates that, on average, the monthly number of company C.R.T.'s implanted by physicians taking part nearly doubled during the survey period that began last September. A person professing to be a Guidant employee provided the documents to The Times. The Times provided Guidant either with copies or text from the documents. Guidant, while declining to confirm the records, did not dispute their authenticity. 'In order to respond best to the needs of patients and preferences of physicians, Guidant has sometimes utilized market research and evaluation programs of our F.D.A.-approved and -cleared products,' said Guidant. The disclosure of the records comes amid a growing controversy over how heart device manufacturers release data about product failures to doctors and patients. Since late May, Guidant has recalled tens of thousands of heart devices, and some units implanted during the survey were probably among the models affected. The two other major heart device companies, Medtronic Inc. and St. Jude Medical, also said they run product evaluation programs. All three companies said their payments to doctors for taking part in such surveys reflected reasonable compensation for a physician's time. 'Any payments made in connection with such surveys are in modest amounts,' Medtronic said in a statement. A number of physicians who participated in the Guidant evaluation said their involvement in such reviews did not influence which company's units they implanted. Still, the Guidant survey and ones like it raise questions about what doctors tell patients about any added payments they may be receiving in connection with a heart product's use, several experts said. Several doctors who took part in the Guidant survey said that they did not tell their patients about the payments they received. It is illegal under federal law in certain circumstances to provide financial benefits to doctors to induce them to use a product or service. In its statement, Guidant said that all of its research and evaluation programs 'are intended to comply with applicable laws.' Product evaluation surveys like the Guidant one are far less rigorous than a traditional clinical study of a drug or a medical device in their purpose, scientific rigor and oversight. But several heart specialists suggested in interviews that heart device makers may also be using formal post-marketing studies of devices that the Food and Drug Administration has already approved - to increase sales as they battle for market share. There is little question that many post-marketing studies of heart devices like defibrillators and pacemakers have yielded crucial data, including those that have shown patients implanted with defibrillators survive longer than patients who are treated only with drugs. A defibrillator sends out an electrical charge intended to interrupt a chaotic and often fatal type of heart rhythm. A pacemaker regulates a heart that is beating too fast or too slowly. But other post-marketing studies may yield far less data. Consider, for example, a study that St. Jude Medical is currently running. It began recruiting doctors and medical centers last October to participate in a study intended to follow for two years the health outcomes of 5,000 patients implanted with either a defibrillator or a C.R.T. with a defibrillator made by St. Jude Medical. A copy of the study's protocol shows that St. Jude Medical will pay $2,000 to doctors or medical centers for every patient. Of that amount, a doctor will get $500 when a device is implanted, with the remainder paid over a two-year period when a physician submits patient data. According to the protocol, the study, which is technically called an outcomes registry, will yield data on how different types of heart patients implanted with the St. Jude Medical devices fare over time. The Times asked four cardiologists not involved in the study to review the protocol. Two of the doctors said that the study might provide St. Jude Medical with some useful data about its device. But the other two doctors said they saw little value in it. One, Dr. Robert Rea, a cardiologist at the Mayo Clinic, said, 'The amount of information that can be gleaned from these kind of trials is relatively limited.' St. Jude Medical, which is based in St. Paul, said it believed that the study would produce valuable information. 'We also hope that some of the analyses from the registry will lead to additional product advancements and help us to define specific test hypotheses for future prospective, randomized clinical studies,' the company said in a statement. The company also said in its statement that study data would be given to Medicare and to the F.D.A., the latter to fulfill post-marketing study obligations imposed by the F.D.A. In order to get reimbursement, Medicare now requires doctors to submit data to a national registry it operates when they implant a defibrillator. There is nothing to suggest that doctors implanting heart devices, either in connection with clinical studies or product surveys, are doing so unnecessarily. And several doctors, including those not involved in the evaluation of the new Guidant lead, said that the component offered potential benefits. At issue is the way that electricity is conducted from an advanced pacemaker - a C.R.T. - into the heart. A C.R.T. has three leads. Each carries electrical impulses, which cycle at various rates, like, say, 60 beats a minute. But if the wire put on the heart's left ventricle is positioned too close to a nerve, the regular electrical impulse it emits can set off involuntary hiccupping. While relatively rare, the problem may require added surgery, which poses risks for the patient. The Guidant lead allows the pulsing position to be changed electronically. Dr. Marc J. Girsky, a cardiologist in Los Angeles who took part in the Guidant survey, said he believed that one purpose was to collect data on the various tests and methods that different doctors used to implant the new lead so that a uniform technique might be developed. 'It is not clear what the established technique would be,' Dr. Girsky said. Some physicians like Dr. Girsky who took part in the survey, which was known by the acronym MERITS, often used Guidant devices. But many other doctors involved did not, company records indicate. Along with the January e-mail message that refers to 'physicians who are not necessarily Guidant friendly' - an industry euphemism for doctors who are not regular customers - another Guidant e-mail message that month stated that the program was 'targeted at our 'B' customers.' A spreadsheet also shows that some doctors had implanted few, if any, Guidant C.R.T.'s before September of last year. Dr. Adkisson, the cardiologist in Virginia, was one of them. In a recent interview, he said that about 90 percent of the devices he used in recent years were Medtronic units, and that one of the two hospitals where he practiced had a contract with that company. Still, when approached by a Guidant sales representative last fall about becoming involved in the lead survey, he said he agreed because he liked doing research. 'I thought there was enough legitimacy to it to say it was O.K.,' Dr. Adkisson said. Doctors filled out one form when the survey started, one form after each of three implants and one form at the end of the survey. The questionnaires sought technical data about the lead's use as well as a doctor's subjective impressions. Dr. Adkisson said that it took him about 10 minutes to fill out each form. As technical data from the survey came into Guidant, company officials projected the impact of C.R.T.'s used by doctors in the survey on revenue, the documents indicate. C.R.T.'s are the fastest-growing and most profitable segment of the heart device industry. Both Ronald W. Dollens, the chief executive of Guidant, and J. Frederick McCoy Jr., the head of its cardiac implant unit, did not respond to written questions related to their awareness of the program In its statement, Guidant said that the data collected from the lead survey was already being put to good use. 'In an effort to be responsive to our physician customers, we take feedback from physicians regarding post-market products very seriously,' the company stated. 'Data collected were aggregated and provided to more than 30 Guidant product development engineers in June 2005.' Dr. Adkisson said last week that he had yet to see it.

Subject: Why I am Optimistic From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 15:23:48 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Precisely 15 of the 22 major international stock market are up over 18% in domestic currency. The strength of the dollar has been easily offset by gains in international stock prices, and there is no sign of stock market effect in countries in which real estate markets have cooled.

Subject: International Bull Market From: Terri To: All Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 15:22:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Again, while analysts fret there is a wide and deep international bull market in stocks. Every major international stock market is positive and almost all are up over 10% and many are up over 20% in domestic currencies for the year. The only markets below 10% are Ireland and Portugal, with large companies restructuring, and America, with large companies lagging.

Subject: NYT columnists From: Douglas To: All Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 10:13:38 (EDT) Email Address: douglas.hinton@gmail.com Message: I afraid if we cave into the NYT payment demand other newspapers will follow, therefore I won't subscribe. Maybe there's another way to read Krugman's columns. There must be other newspapers we can access that carry NYT colunists. I know the International Hearld Tribune carries them, but they have the same payment scheme as the NYT. Does anyone know of other newspapers? Douglas

Subject: I posted part of PK's column From: Erica To: Douglas Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 16:34:12 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Uh, I just posted Krugman's latest a few posts down the thread. And I also heard that you might be able to get it from truthout.org. But I read it from Dailykos.

Subject: Re: NYT columnists From: Terri To: Douglas Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 13:45:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: The way to access the New York Times is through your city or school library site. There should be access to the New York Times almost everywhere. I can gain complete access at any time though our city library.

Subject: Re: NYT columnists From: Ed To: Terri Date Posted: Sat, Oct 01, 2005 at 04:33:40 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I won't be subscribing either and have let my print subscription lapse and will not sign up unless that retract this policy. The Times, and I'd assume most online newspapers, has excellent activity tracking ability. Recommend avoiding the site entirely as a boycott. While they've had trouble finding ways to make the web version profitable, taking advantage of their (formerly?) increasing national reach like this is extremely short sighted in the blogging era. Hey Paul, are *you* seeing any of this additional revenue?

Subject: What do you all think about this? From: Erica To: All Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 08:05:50 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: There are a lot of Brownies. As Time magazine puts it in its latest issue, ''Bush has gone further than most presidents to put political stalwarts in some of the most important government jobs you've never heard of.'' Time offers a couple of fresh examples, such as the former editor of a Wall Street medical-industry newsletter who now holds a crucial position at the Food and Drug Administration. A tipster urged me to look for Brownies among regional administrators for the General Services Administration, which oversees federal property and leases. There are several potential ways a position at G.S.A. could be abused. For example, an official might give a particular businessman an inside track in the purchase of government property -- the charge against David Safavian, who was recently arrested -- or give a particular landlord an inside track in renting space to federal agencies. Some of the regional administrators at G.S.A. are longtime professionals. But the regional administrator for the Northeast and Caribbean region, which includes New York, has no obvious qualifications other than being the daughter of the chairman of the Conservative Party of New York State. The regional administrator for the Southwest, appointed in 2002 after a failed bid for his father's Congressional seat, is Scott Armey, the son of Dick Armey, the former House majority leader. (Time has a five page article about Are there other Mike Browns? Anyone read it yet?) Jack Abramoff is a lobbyist who was paid huge sums by clients such as casino-owning Indian tribes and sweatshop operators on Saipan. Two Degrees of Jack Abramoff is inspired by the remarkable centrality of Mr. Abramoff, who was indicted last month on charges of fraud, in Washington's power structure. The goal isn't to find important political players who were chummy with Mr. Abramoff -- that's too easy. Instead, you have to find people linked by employment. One degree of Jack Abramoff is someone who actually worked for the lobbyist. Two degrees is a powerful Washington figure who hired someone who formerly worked for Mr. Abramoff, or who had one of his own former employees go to work for Mr. Abramoff. Grover Norquist, the powerful antitax lobbyist, is a one-degree man. Mr. Norquist was Mr. Abramoff's campaign manager when he ran for chairman of the College Republican National Committee, then became his executive director. And don't dismiss this as kid stuff: as Franklin Foer explains in The New Republic, the college Republican organization pays serious salaries and has been a steppingstone for the likes of Lee Atwater and Karl Rove. Mr. Rove, by the way, is a two-degree man. He hired Susan Ralston, Mr. Abramoff's personal assistant, as his own personal assistant. For those unfamiliar with what that means, Ms. Ralston became Mr. Rove's gatekeeper -- the person who determined who got to see the great man. Tom DeLay, the House majority leader, is also a two-degree man. Tony Rudy, who worked for Mr. DeLay in several capacities, left to work for Mr. Abramoff. Finally, somebody should be considered a two-degree man on account of the recently arrested Mr. Safavian, who worked for both Mr. Abramoff and Mr. Norquist, then went first to the G.S.A. and on to the White House Office of Management and Budget, where he oversaw procurement policy. But I'm not sure who gets credit for hiring Mr. Safavian. Mr Krugman concludes: Something is rotten in the state of the U.S. government. And the lesson of Hurricane Katrina is that a culture of cronyism and corruption can have lethal consequences. I also heard that you may be able to link to Truthout.org for Paul's column. Anyone know if this is true?

Subject: Re: What do you all think about this? From: Bobby To: Erica Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 22:05:56 (EDT) Email Address: robert@pkarchive.org Message: I think you're posting a bit much of the article. I think it goes too far and will get me in trouble.

Subject: They had all of it on Kos Bobby From: Erica To: Bobby Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 17:06:36 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Bobby, they had all of it posted on DKos. But has anyone checked out truthout.org. I hear they may post PK's columns. If they do, you can link to truthout and let them worry about copyright ingringements.

Subject: Re: They had all of it on Kos Bobby From: Erica To: Erica Date Posted: Fri, Sep 30, 2005 at 17:11:51 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: That should be infringements, sorry!

Subject: I found this on another site From: Erica To: Erica Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 08:09:06 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: They actually printed it in whole. I took out a couple of paragraphs. But I am posting it so it can be discussed.

Subject: Re: I found this on another site From: Mik To: Erica Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 14:07:28 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Now why don't we hear from Ron Shawger or Maureen on this article?

Subject: Re: I found this on another site From: Erica To: Mik Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 16:28:46 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Mik, who is Ron and Maureen?

Subject: Nevermind, Maureen and Ron are trolls From: Erica To: Erica Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 16:58:14 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I read down the post and discovered the answer for myself. They are trolls, who for reasons of mental illness or known only to them, continue to post on a website dedicated to a man they so obviously hate. Is 'Krugman Hatred' a mental disease? I think that maybe much like 'conservatism' it is.

Subject: Suggestions From: RL To: All Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 05:49:47 (EDT) Email Address: rafaelloring@yahoo.es Message: Hi bobby, I am afraid this forum will suffer greatly from NYT policy changes. Could I suggest some changes in the message board so this could still be a hot spot for comment & debate?. IMO the problem with the message board is that discussions go way down the board rapidly(specially due to Emma's prodigality of which I am very thankful by the way)and they get lost too soon. In other blogs I have seen boards working differently: as someone posts a message this goes all the way up to the beginning of the board. This ensures that debates can go on as long as they are alive, something that Haloscan board permitted here. It is possible to make changes in the message board so it works this way? thanks, RL

Subject: Re: Suggestions From: Dorian To: RL Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 02:10:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: This is a good idea. I second the motion. Dorian

Subject: krugman's columns From: byron To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 23:52:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I guess we can't read Pauls columns on this site now. The neo cons have managed to stop this also. What a bummer. Do we have to pay now to read his columns?

Subject: Re: krugman's columns From: jwood To: byron Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 10:40:04 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I guess we can't read Pauls columns on this site now. The neo cons have managed to stop this also. What a bummer. Do we have to pay now to read his columns? --- Ridiculous statements like this only give ammunition to the other side. The neocons had nothing to do with the Times finally deciding to charge for part of their newspaper's content. They are a business, it was a business decision, and their choice to make. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the democracy that you're trying to defend. There is more than enough to blame on the neocons without fabricating arguments and facts.

Subject: Re: krugman's columns From: Aniruddha G. Kulkarni To: byron Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 23:51:03 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I guess we can't read Pauls columns on this site now. The neo cons have managed to stop this also. What a bummer. Do we have to pay now to read his columns? --- Indeed. I wrote sometime ago on Delong's website that The Economist is jealous of Paul Krugman because his columns are free to read.....I retract it.....

Subject: La folie des grandeurs (Part e^X) From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 18:17:23 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: Costs rising on Bush's plans From Iraq to Katrina, the president's plans are putting strain on the federal budget. By Linda Feldmann WASHINGTON – Former President Clinton grumbles that he governed in 'small times.' The nation wasn't at war, and the economy roared ahead. President Bush has no such complaint. This weekend alone was all about 'big-time' events: the second massive storm in a month to hit the Gulf Coast, and the largest demonstration against the Iraq war since the US-led invasion 2-1/2 years ago. Mr. Bush missed seeing tens of thousands of protesters streaming past the White House because he was positioned at the US Northern Command headquarters in Colorado, from which he monitored the federal response to hurricane Rita. If nothing else, Bush's nearly five years in office have been marked by 'bigness.' A stream of historic events - some of the president's own making, some not - have resulted in massive federal spending. On top of that, add the agenda he brought to the table on that first Inauguration Day that seems to be growing only larger. Some items, like Social Security and tax reform, have been delayed, but nothing has been removed from the wish list altogether. Even immigration reform, controversial within Bush's own party, is still on the table. 'He is trying to have a very significant presidency at virtually any cost,' says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. 'The cost includes the Republicans' reputation for fiscal conservatism. That's dead - and it may be dead for a generation.' When hurricane Katrina hit in late August, wreaking devastation along the Gulf Coast, Bush promised to do 'whatever it takes' to rebuild; Congress has obliged by approving all spending proposed thus far. The White House insists that this spending will be paid for by cuts elsewhere in the budget, but officials have yet to suggest specifics. Bush does not have the excuse of a Congress controlled by the opposing party, forcing his hand by passing big-spending legislation, analysts say. When the Republican-controlled Congress passed a massive highway bill this summer that will cost $286 billion over six years - at many billions of dollars over Bush's stated limit - he signed the legislation anyway. Now suggestions that the bill's 'pork' - such as a $223 million bridge in Alaska connecting two isolated areas - be sliced out have been rejected by the Republican congressional leadership. The White House, too, has rejected a proposal to delay implementation of the extensive new prescription0drug plan for seniors that will take effect in January. Deficit hawks have begun filling the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal with Katrina-induced outrage over Bush and other elected Republicans' spending habits. 'George W. Bush is a big spender,' wrote Peggy Noonan, President Reagan's former speechwriter, on Sept. 22. 'He has never vetoed a spending bill. When Congress serves up a big slab of fat, crackling pork, Mr. Bush responds with one big question: Got any barbecue sauce?' Former Club for Growth head Stephen Moore, in a Sept. 19 column called 'Welcome to the GOP's New Deal,' complains that 'both parties are now willing and eager to spend tax dollars as if they were passing out goody-bags to grabby four-year-olds at a birthday party.' Mr. Moore also refers to an 'enraged' grass roots of the party over the ballooning deficit. But as long as the president's job approval rating hovers in the low 40s, his political advisers can argue that he has preserved the support of his base, at least. Historically, the image of Republicans as the party of small government has not tended to play out in practice. 'Republicans rhetorically oppose big spending, but have seldom opposed it in practice,' says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California formerly involved in Republican politics. 'Ronald Reagan came to office hinting he might eliminate cabinet departments and ended up adding one: the Department of Veterans Affairs. Republicans are no strangers to big government.' Eventually, politicians will feel some pressure to address the deficit because the economic consequences will be painful, but in the short run there will be more pressure to spend on disaster relief, Professor Pitney adds. At heart, Bush's pledge to do 'whatever it takes' in the wake of Katrina may be linked to his party's broader goal of expanding outreach to minorities. In Louisiana, poor African-Americans who did not evacuate were particularly hard hit by the storm. Since becoming chairman of the Republican Party in February, Ken Mehlman had been traveling the country, addressing black and Hispanic audiences. This represents a continuation of a longstanding plan to boost the party's minority ranks, an effort that bore some fruit in the 2004 elections. Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser, has also kept his eye on minority politics, even amid the latest crises. He has been bringing groups of lawmakers into the White House to promote the administration's proposal for a temporary guest worker program. The plan is controversial, because it would grant temporary legal status to illegal workers. But the White House reportedly argues that such a program could build support among Hispanics in this country, now the largest minority group. http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0926/p01s01-usec.html

Subject: Re: La folie des grandeurs (Part e^X) From: Pete Weis To: Pancho Villa Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 08:59:31 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: ''George W. Bush is a big spender,' wrote Peggy Noonan, President Reagan's former speechwriter, on Sept. 22. 'He has never vetoed a spending bill. When Congress serves up a big slab of fat, crackling pork, Mr. Bush responds with one big question: Got any barbecue sauce?'' George W is merely carrying on the Reagan tradition - I believe the federal deficit increased something like 8 fold during the Reagan years. Even with the large payroll tax hikes under Reagan, much of which were spent on defense (the 600 ship Navy, etc.), the deficit soared!! Reagan had a love affair with Congress and gave them all their 'pork' as long as they gave him all of his defense spending. George W is a big spender without question, but to hear Reagan administration folks try to label him such is a bit ironic.

Subject: Re: La folie des grandeurs (Part e^X) From: Emma To: Pete Weis Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 09:39:28 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Agreed. We are in deficit trouble, but there is no reason the trouble will appear for years to come. We cannot know about timing.

Subject: CASINO GAMBLING : CLICK HERE From: Pancho Villa To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 18:05:31 (EDT) Email Address: nma@hotmail.com Message: PHILIP VERLEGER America surfers as Bush's gamble fails to pay off After his 1964 landslide election, President Lyndon Johnson gambled that the US economy could support a war and his Great Society programme. He lost. The expenditures exceeded economic capacity. Shortages occurred, prices rose, and a 15-year inflationary spiral began. Within two years, the Federal Reserve had to intervene by raising interest rates. Economic growth stopped and harsh economic conditions brought an end to Johnson's dreams. Forty years later, another president from Texas made another wager: betting the US could fight a war, reduce taxes and avoid conserving energy. He also lost. Over the next two years, President George W. Bush will see inflation return and the Federal Reserve Board act to offset his profligate energy and fiscal policies. Johnson's hope that the US economy could sustain the Vietnam war and domestic economic expansion ended when US industry failed to meet military and civilian demands. Unfinished aeroplanes sat waiting for galleys and other gear needed to complete them. Homes stood unfinished as builders waited for lumber, plumbing and other finishings. Prices rose. The Federal Reserve took matters into its own hands when Congress refused to reduce the growing deficit. In 1969, as they made way for the incoming Nixon administration, Johnson's departing economic advisers noted ruefully: 'In the absence of a full measure of timely fiscal restraint, an undue share of the burden of dampening the excessive expansion fell on monetary policy.' Today, President Bush is in a similar situation. He and his advisers also gambled, although in a different game. Johnson tried to provide guns and butter without raising taxes. George Bush tried to serve up large tax cuts without reducing spending or addressing the nation's rapacious thirst for motor fuels, particularly gasoline. The Bush wager failed when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed a large part of the US Gulf coast. The storm put additional strain on an economy operating near capacity, while simultaneously closing part of the nation's petroleum refining and natural gas industries. The extensive damage has forced the government to enact large spending increases to rebuild communities and support displaced individuals. This is a classic Keynesian stimulus package. Given the state of the business cycle, inflation can be expected to rise even without offsetting reductions in government outlays. The huge rebuilding requirements will send prices up and create shortages for materials, capital equipment and critical labour resources. Home builders already report a wide scarcity of plywood. The loss of natural gas supplies adds to inflationary pressures. Katrina and Rita destroyed perhaps 5 per cent of the nation's natural gas supply, causing large price increases. Heating bills could double this winter. Furthermore, the cost of goods manufactured using natural gas, such as PVC pipe, will climb sharply even before rebuilding efforts boost demand. The economic stimulus will also put pressure on petroleum markets. The economic spur from reconstruction will heighten gasoline and diesel demand. But the increase cannot be met because of storm damage to US refineries. Thus, Katrina and Rita will leave a legacy of much higher gasoline and diesel prices in 2006. These price hikes could have been avoided had we pursued a programme to limit increases in motor fuel consumption. Here, too, George Bush made a bet. Efforts to tighten fuel economy standards for new vehicles were rejected when his energy programme was introduced and Congress refused to change it. The president declined to push a gasoline tax following 9/11. He wagered that an already stretched refining industry could meet mounting gasoline demand, which is largely linked to American affinity for large SUVs and trucks. The president and his advisers understood that the higher demand would require US refineries to operate at maximum capacity. They knew no new refineries were being built. They also knew no new offshore facilities capable of meeting EPA standards had been constructed. Not until this summer, after months of the industry operating flat out, did they realise new capacity was necessary. The president lost this gamble as well when the two hurricanes hit the Gulf coast, taking a severe toll on the refining industry. It may take a year or more to bring it back to its pre-Katrina state. Until then, supply will be lower and prices much higher. Although the calculations are hard to believe, econometric models suggest retail gasoline prices might need to double by next summer to maintain market balance. The price rise will add to inflation. There is only one end to this scenario: higher interest rates. A vigilant Federal Reserve Board will have to boost rates to suppress demand, just as during the Johnson administration. The pressure for higher rates will be even greater given the forthcoming retirement of Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman. His replacement will need to convince financial markets that the Board remains determined to keep inflation in check. The consequences will be a slowdown or worse. As the rebuilding effort slows, high interest rates and high gasoline prices may pull the economy into recession. Like President Johnson, President Bush took a chance and lost. The writer is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics FT Monday September 26 2005

Subject: Celebrating Shaw, a Serious Optimist From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 14:24:49 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/16/theater/newsandfeatures/16shaw.html?ex=1284523200&en=4278b5a0c2b56bc7&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 16, 2005 Celebrating Shaw, a Serious Optimist By BEN BRANTLEY THE old man is never going to shut up, so we might as well let him into the conversation once again. After all, it's not as if the subjects that raise middle-class hackles have changed so very much in the 55 years since George Bernard Shaw died, leaving mountains of plays (more than 50, and their prefaces and postscripts) and essays and pamphlets and treatises and letters and reviews to rumble on in an ardent and exasperated eternity. Consider intelligent design, the God-incorporating alternative to Darwinism that is such a hot-button topic among scientists, theologians, educators and anxious parents of schoolchildren these days. Now, the Irish-born Shaw - whose exceptionally long and fecund career as a center of London theatrical and political life is being celebrated beginning tomorrow in a festival of talks, readings and performances at the New York Public Library, titled 'Man or Superman?' - devoted rivers of ink to expounding his personal variation on the theory of natural selection. It was called creative evolution, a name that sounds a lot like intelligent design, don't you think? Still, proponents of that theory probably don't want to hitch their wagons to Shaw's venerable star. While he had some problems with the biological randomness of Darwin, Shaw also pretty much eliminated God from the equation of how human life develops. Creative evolution, put forth in jovial but dead serious dramatic terms in Shaw's play 'Man and Superman' (published in 1903; first performed in 1905), is based on an ever upwardly striving phenomenon called the life force, which propels us away from our inconvenient bodily impulses and toward a state of pure cerebration. The life force, by the way, is transmitted by rare, world-shaking men of genius, 'selected by Nature to carry on the work of building up an intellectual consciousness of her instinctive purpose.' In other words, men like Jesus, Julius Caesar, John Bunyan, Napoleon, Goethe, Wagner and - but, of course - George Bernard Shaw. Shakespeare, by the way, almost doesn't qualify by Shavian standards (too pessimistic), but for a while there it looked as if Hitler and Stalin might. Here is Shaw's alter ego in 'Man and Superman,' an asexual variation on that immortal rake Don Juan, on why he thinks religion is 'a mere excuse for laziness': 'It had set up a God who looked at the world and saw that it was good, against the instinct in me that looked through my eyes at the world and saw that it could be improved.' And improvement of the species - which involved setting fire to rotting, imprisoning conventions and throwing cold water on smug faces - was always the first purpose of Shaw's plays. 'It should be clear now that Shaw is a terrorist,' wrote Bertolt Brecht, who knew from guerrilla theater. The critic Kenneth Tynan described Shaw as 'the demolition expert.' New York City felt its first full blast of Shavian dynamite a century ago, when 'Mrs. Warren's Profession' opened on Oct. 30, 1905, at the Garrick Theater. (Its centenary is the occasion for the festival at the library, which features a reading of the play, starring Dana Ivey, on Oct. 24.) Up to that point, Shaw's plays, which had been seldom staged in London, had been enjoying cautious but intrigued acceptance in the United States. His 'Devil's Disciple' (1897), set during the American Revolution, had been a popular vehicle for the matinee idol Richard Mansfield, affording Shaw his first taste of commercial success. And 'Man and Superman,' which had opened earlier in 1905, aroused enough excitement to have its script placed on the restricted list by the New York Public Library, lest it infect young minds with its unorthodox views of God and matrimony. 'Illuminated Gangrene' But the slings and arrows of Superman were but feathers compared to the full-frontal assault of Mrs. Warren, whose profession was prostitution. Ladies of the evening had walked Broadway's stages before, but they had previously always paid for their trade with either their lives or orgies of Magdalenish repentance. Mrs. Warren made no apology for her métier, which she pragmatically saw as a product and necessity of her time and civilization. Even worse, one of her former clients turned out to be a clergyman, who didn't act very penitent, either, just muddled and embarrassed. And the play dared to flirt with the possibility of incest between Mrs. Warren's daughter and men who may or may not have been her father or brother. Having run for one night in New Haven, where it was immediately banned, 'Mrs. Warren's Profession' opened on Broadway to a sold-out audience (whose members had paid as much as $40 per scalped ticket), with 2,000 to 3,000 people turned away at the door. The police closed down the show, citing the entire cast for 'disorderly conduct.' 'Shaw's Play Unfit; The Critics Unanimous,' announced the headline of an article in The New York Times, which featured the subhead, 'A Performance About as Elevating as a Post-Mortem.' Another newspaper, The American, described the play as 'illuminated gangrene.' As Shaw, with the satisfaction of a man who always understood that no publicity was bad publicity, later wrote of the press coverage, 'They infected each other with their hysteria until they were for all practical purposes indecently mad.' Provocateur Par Excellence Within the sound and fury, though, cooler critical voices were leveling charges that, to an artist, were far more damning: 'Mrs. Warren's Profession' was a bore. 'Little more than a tract on the social evil,' wrote the critic in The New York Sun. When the play was restaged a year later (its producer and cast had been acquitted of disorderly conduct), it came and went quietly, and Theater Magazine dismissed it with a contemptuous yawn as 'a dull, uninteresting play.' This progression from titillated fascination to watch-checking ennui is not entirely atypical of first-time Shaw readers and theatergoers. Shaw was cutting a calculated, irresistibly dangerous figure as a firebrand critic, polemicist and soapbox orator long before his plays were first produced in London. It was a fire-breathing persona, stoked over seven decades, that expected, nay demanded, to be caricatured: 'the Celebrated G.B.S.,' as he put it, 'about as real as a pantomime ostrich.' So fierce and inventive a self-publicist that Donald Trump looks like a piker by comparison, Shaw guaranteed that this zoo creature of a reputation would always precede his actual works. And thus it has been, even to this day. However tame early scandal-making plays like 'Widowers' Houses' (1892), 'The Philanderer' (1893), 'Man and Superman' and 'Mrs. Warren's Profession' may seem today, they still give off a faint whiff of notoriety, like a cloud of dried powder from an ancient courtesan's face. No one expects to be shocked by Shaw anymore, but there's always the hope that he'll once again prove himself the provocateur par excellence, as well as a master practitioner of flashing wit. The opening minutes of any decent Shaw production confirm this promise. The dialogue is so fleet, so barbed, so sure of itself in its rippling musicality; the characters so brisk and ornery. You feel as if you've found yourself in a room with the greatest conversationalist of all time. But then the talk continues, and continues, and continues without cease, demonstrating Shaw's first rule to producers of his plays: 'There must never be a moment of silence from the rise of the curtain to its fall.' And suddenly the experience seems to have become less like having tea with a charming epigrammist than being locked in a padded cell with a mad lecturer. Man Versus His Environment But often, just as you're about to scream for deliverance, you're hooked again by a U-turn in sentiment or argument or character. An animated lecture becomes, if only temporarily, a breathing work of art. It's the exhilarating effect of a writer's own intelligence turning on itself, giving rise, as the Bloomsbury critic Desmond MacCarthy wrote, to the dizzying sensation of witnessing a conflict 'between two religions in one mind.' Shaw, in his preface to 'Mrs. Warren's Profession,' might have stated a bit tediously that drama is 'no mere setting up of the camera to nature,' but 'the presentation in parable of the conflict between Man's will and his environment.' But it's when something like spontaneous nature - dares one call it the life force? - creeps in under the barbed wire of parable that Shaw becomes exciting. That was certainly my impression when I saw 'Mrs. Warren's Profession' in London a few years ago. The director, Sir Peter Hall, had taken pains to remind the audience that this was once a work of scalding relevance, with Shavian quotes and historical notes projected on a drop curtain. Even with a vivacious Brenda Blethyn in the title role, what followed looked like a shooting gallery of corrupt societal archetypes. But in the midst of the painted cardboard was an unmistakably blooming presence, a vibrant, faintly outrageous character. Her name was Vivie Warren, the grown daughter of Mrs. Warren, who abruptly learns of her mother's past and goes through upheavals of moral reckoning. As played by Rebecca Hall, the daughter of Sir Peter, in her professional debut, Vivie pulsed with the sense of a mind discovering its own purpose. As Vivie recoiled from, accepted and finally rejected her mother and all she stood for, she came to seem like a cobweb-clearing breeze in a stale, close room. Embodied by Ms. Hall with both the first-blush freshness and judgmental absolutism of youth, Vivie became Shaw's iconoclastic spirit made formidable but definitely human flesh. Here was a cousin to one of Shaw's literary heroines, the Nora who slammed the door in Ibsen's 'Doll's House.' Woman, Hear Her Roar It is indeed often a woman who provides the oxygen in Shaw's hermetically sealed worlds of words. Shavian heroes tend to be passive prigs, but his Mephistophelean men have been incarnated with deliciously dry elegance by a cavalcade of notable actors: Charles Laughton, Robert Morley, Philip Bosco and David Warren as Andrew Undershaft, the Jesuitical arms merchant in 'Major Barbara'; Maurice Evans and Laurence Olivier as the blissfully cynical General Burgoyne in 'The Devil's Disciple'; and, of course, Leslie Howard, Rex Harrison and Peter O'Toole in 'Pygmalion' and its handsome musical offspring, 'My Fair Lady.' But it is the self-assertive, protofeminist, sexually predatory Woman, who earns her capital W, who is most responsible for wrenching Shaw's plays off the speaker's podium. 'No male writer born in the 19th century outside Norway and Sweden did more to knock Woman off her pedestal and plant her on the solid earth than I,' said Shaw, with a respectful nod to Ibsen and Strindberg. That solid earth, however, is usually on a mountaintop. Shaw regarded the sexual vitality of women - nature's vehicles, after all, for passing on the life force - with a mix of adoration and terror that made them monumental. Like his own Henry Higgins with Eliza Doolittle, Shaw couldn't quite control his female characters once he set them on their paths to glory. Played by the right performers, they vibrate, radiate and crush the mere men in their paths. Hence actresses have gravitated hungrily to Eliza, from Mrs. Patrick Campbell (for whom Shaw wrote the part) to Lynn Fontanne and Wendy Hiller. The serenely, sagely passive-aggressive title character of 'Candida' has been catnip for actresses of a certain age, including Peggy Wood, Katherine Cornell, Olivia de Havilland and Joanne Woodward. Then, of course, there is that paragon of theatrical incandescence, Saint Joan, who has been taken up by Sybil Thorndike, Cornell, Uta Hagen, Siobhan McKenna and Lynn Redgrave. Joan is not, to tell the truth, a favorite of mine. There's not much variety in her, since all she has to do is glow and speak bluntly. A luminous, transcendent rebuke to the worldly, short-sighted figures who debate her fate and condemn her, Joan embodies what G. K. Chesterton saw as Shaw's greatest attribute, 'a serious optimism - even a tragic optimism.' Art as Corrective That willed optimism, in a world that older offered little reason for hope as Shaw grew older, may be endearing. But its corollary was an insistence on art as corrective that limited Shaw even more than his compulsive chattiness. He was impatient with the man who he conceded was the greatest English playwright after himself. 'The truth is,' he wrote, 'the world was to Shakespeare a great 'stage of fools' on which he was utterly bewildered. He could see no sort of sense in living.' Shakespeare's pessimism, he concluded disapprovingly, 'is only his wounded humanity.' Yet at the beginning of the 21st century, a time of stunted optimism, the Shaw play that seems to speak most eloquently to audiences is the one he wrote when his faith in humanity was at its lowest. That's 'Heartbreak House' (published, 1919; first produced, 1920), Shaw's despairing account of a suicidal Europe on the brink of World War I. Intended as a homage to Chekhov, it turns into a strangely surreal portrait of a group of illusion-swapping, illusion-shattering aristocrats marking time in a country house on the eve of their own extinction. They do not so much live in their home, as one character says, as haunt it, and what they haunt is 'this soul's prison we call England.' When bombs fall at the play's end, in a ravishing spectacle of light, they are greeted with relief and exultation. The characters in 'Heartbreak House' are typically Shavian in their wit and jeweled speechifying. But for once, there is no redemption in words. And while Shaw wrote brilliantly articulate letters throughout his life, none, perhaps, are as moving as one in which he recognized that there were some subjects that language cannot accommodate. 'I can't be sympathetic; these things simply make me furious,' he wrote to Campbell, on hearing that her son had been killed in 1918 by the last shell from a German battery. 'Oh, damn, damn, damn, damn, damn, damn, damn, damn, DAMN DAMN! And oh, dear, dear, dear, dear, dear, dearest!'

Subject: Krugman NYT columns are free legally From: Norman Bauman To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 13:26:43 (EDT) Email Address: nbauman@escape.com Message: If you're in New York City, you can easily read Krugman's columns on-line free. Go to the New York Public Library web site http://www.nypl.org/ Go to the Gale newspaper collection http://infotrac.galegroup.com/itweb/nysl_me_tnypl?db=SP02 Type in the barcode on your library card (you need a library card) Go to the Advanced Search tab (which I prefer) Select 'Krugman' for author and 'New York Times' for newspaper. This will list all of Krugman's columns, although a day or two late. Today (Monday), it listed the Friday column. Click on 'Full Text' and you get: Krugman, Paul. 'The Big Uneasy.(Editorial Desk).' The New York Times (Sept 23, 2005): A19(L). Custom Newspapers. Thomson Gale. New York Public Library. 26 September 2005 . Full Text : COPYRIGHT 2005 The New York Times Company Although Hurricane Katrina drowned much of New Orleans, the damage to America's economic infrastructure actually fell short of early predictions. Of course, Rita may make up for that. But Katrina did more than physical damage; it was a blow to our self-image as a nation. Maybe people will quickly forget the horrible scenes from the Superdome, and the frustration of wondering why no help had arrived, once cable TV returns to nonstop coverage of missing white women. But my guess is that Katrina's shock to our sense of ourselves will persist for years. You should even be able to click on that long url and go directly to the column -- after you type in your NYPL library card bar code. http://find.galegroup.com/itx/infomark.do?&type=retrieve&tabID=T003&prodId=SPN.SP02&docId=A136529155&source=gale&srcprod=SP02&userGroupName=nysl_me_tnypl&version=1.0 Actually it's only 'free' in the sense that libraries are free. You're paying for it, with your tax money, the NYPL is paying for it, New York State is paying for it, and the NYT is getting paid for it, from Gale Thompson, so the NYT has no complaints. Take advantage of it. It's yours. This should also work for library cards from any other cities that subscribe to this standard library package. (The only problem is that I haven't been able to find the NYT Magazine articles in this database.) My apologies if those URLs have glitches. I'll leave it to you to philosophize about the benefits of government. Norman

Subject: Re/ accessing Krugman's columns from library From: Dorian To: Norman Bauman Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 02:06:43 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I have access to the Gale database but I cannot figure out how to use it. I've followed your instructions,i.e, put Krugman in the 'author' search and New York Times in the journal. I've even limited it by 'after August 1st'. But when I check 'full text' I get nothing. When I leave it unchecked, I get a million references but no Krugman columns. Any further advice? Apparently I have access to the same database as you, I just can't seem to get the same results. I suppose I could go to my library and ask the reference librarian to guide me through it. In fact, that's probably the best idea, now that I think of it. Thanks for the suggestion. Dorian PSMP0003844493

Subject: Re: Re/ accessing Krugman's columns from library From: Emma To: Dorian Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 09:36:27 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Once you have traced through the path to TimesSelect through the public library simply log on and all the New York Times and TimesSelect resources are there for us. Bookmark the path and there will be no problem from then.

Subject: Re: Re/ accessing Krugman's columns from library From: Jeff in China To: Emma Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 11:44:55 (EDT) Email Address: harpedc@hotmail.com Message: I did a search to find you guys, this is my first post but I've been around all week. I live overseas and am not inclined to pay for the NYT Select. Why don't you guys discreetly collect email addresses of people interested in Paul's articles and quietly forward them? I certainly wouldn't mind getting certain spam from this site. I left mine.

Subject: Re: Re/ accessing Krugman's columns from library From: Terri To: Jeff in China Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 14:07:24 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Simply get a library card from your home city, and log on to the NYTimes site from the library access. Ask someone in your family to register you at the library.

Subject: Re: Krugman NYT columns are free legally From: Mik To: Norman Bauman Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 16:24:17 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Oh fudge... and there I was thinking I could get his articles.... uhmm anyone have a NY library card number they'd be prepared to share with a Torontonian?

Subject: Re: Krugman NYT columns are free legally From: Norman Bauman To: Mik Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 20:38:13 (EDT) Email Address: nbauman@escape.com Message: The Toronto Public Library has Thompson Gale publications for its patrons on its web site. See if they have the NYT. Ask your librarian. The Kansas City Star has Krugman's columns, but only one a week. I couldn't find any newspaper on Google News that carries every one of Krugman's columns and is free on line.

Subject: Re: Krugman NYT columns are free legally From: Mik To: Norman Bauman Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 12:02:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: I was just thinking about that. Very good idea. Thanks.

Subject: Loving Libraries From: Emma To: Norman Bauman Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 14:15:28 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Thank you so much. Libraries are truly precious, and being able to access the library from home or office is wonderful. I have our library site bookmarked. NYTimes magazine articles should generally be readable directly from the NYTimes website.

Subject: Integrating Schools by Income From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 12:43:32 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/25/education/25raleigh.html?ex=1285300800&en=ffa874e3998a590a&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 25, 2005 Integrating Schools by Income Is Cited as a Success in Raleigh By ALAN FINDER RALEIGH, N.C. - Over the last decade, black and Hispanic students here in Wake County have made such dramatic strides in standardized reading and math tests that it has caught the attention of education experts around the country. School officials in Wake County, which includes Raleigh and its sprawling suburbs, have tried many tactics to improve student performance. Teachers get state bonuses when their schools make significant progress in standardized tests, and the district uses sophisticated data gathering to identify, and respond to, students' weaknesses. But the prime reason for the students' dramatic improvement, officials and parents say, is that the district has made a concerted effort to integrate the schools economically. Since 2000, school officials have used income as a prime factor in assigning students to schools, with the goal of limiting the proportion of low-income students in any school to no more than 40 percent. The effort is the most ambitious in the country to create economically diverse public schools, and it is the most successful, according to several independent experts. La Crosse, Wis.; St. Lucie County, Fla.; San Francisco; Cambridge, Mass.; and Charlotte-Mecklenburg, N.C., have adopted economic integration plans. In Wake County, only 40 percent of black students in grades three through eight scored at grade level on state tests a decade ago. Last spring, 80 percent did. Hispanic students have made similar strides. Overall, 91 percent of students in those grades scored at grade level in the spring, up from 79 percent 10 years ago. Some of the strategies used in Wake County could be replicated across the country, the experts said, but they also cautioned that unusual circumstances have helped make the politically delicate task of economic integration possible here. The school district is countywide, which makes it far easier to combine students from the city and suburbs. The county has a 30-year history of busing students for racial integration, and many parents and students are accustomed to long bus rides to distant schools. The local economy is robust, and the district is growing rapidly. And corporate leaders and newspaper editorial pages here have firmly supported economic diversity in the schools. Some experts said the academic results in Wake County were particularly significant because they bolstered research that showed low-income students did best when they attended middle-class schools. 'Low-income students who have an opportunity to go to middle-class schools are surrounded by peers who have bigger dreams and who are more academically engaged,' said Richard D. Kahlenberg, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation who has written about economic integration in schools. 'They are surrounded by parents who are more likely to be active in the school. And they are taught by teachers who more likely are highly qualified than the teachers in low-income schools.' To achieve a balance of low- and middle-income children in every school, the Wake County school district encourages and sometimes requires students to attend schools far from home. Suburban students are drawn to magnet schools in the city. Low-income children from the city are bused to middle-class schools in the suburbs. Some parents chafe at the length of their children's bus rides or at what they see as social engineering. But the test results are hard to dispute, proponents of economic integration say, as is the broad appeal of the school district, which has been growing by 5,000 students a year. 'What I say to parents is, 'Here is what you should hold me accountable for: at the end of that bus ride, are we providing a quality education for your child?' ' Bill McNeal, the school superintendent, said. Asked how parents respond, Mr. McNeal said, 'They are coming back, and they are bringing their friends.' Not everyone supports the strategy, of course. Some parents deeply oppose mandatory assignments to schools. Every winter, the district, using a complicated formula, develops a list of students who will be reassigned to new schools for the following academic year, and nearly every year some parents object vehemently. 'Kids are bused all over creation, and they say it's for economic diversity, but really it's a proxy for race,' said Cynthia Matson, who is white and middle class. She is the president and a founder of Assignment By Choice, an advocacy group promoting parental choice. The organization wants parents to be responsible for selecting schools, and it objects to restrictions that, in certain circumstances, make it difficult for some middle-class children to get into magnet schools. 'If a parent wants their kid bused, then let them make the choice,' Mrs. Matson said. 'But don't force parents to have their kids bused across town to go to a school that they don't want to go to.' Supporters of economic integration contend that the county offers parents many choices but that the school district needs the discretion to assign some children to schools to avoid large concentrations of poor children. 'I believe in choice as much as anyone,' Mr. McNeal said. 'However, I can't let choice erode our ability to provide quality programs and quality teaching.' The board of education had two motives when it decided to make economic integration a main element in the district's strategy: board members feared that the county's three-decade effort to integrate public schools racially would be found unconstitutional if challenged in the federal courts, and they took note of numerous studies that showed the academic benefits of economically diversifying schools. 'There is a lot of evidence that it's just sound educational policy, sound public policy, to try to avoid concentrations of low-achieving students,' said John H. Gilbert, a professor emeritus at North Carolina State University in Raleigh who served for 16 years on the county school board and voted for the plan. 'They do much better and advantaged students are not hurt by it if you follow policies that avoid concentrating low-achievement students.' One sign of the success of the Wake County plan, Mr. Gilbert said, is that residential property values in Raleigh have remained high, as have those in the suburbs. 'The economy is really saying something about the effort in the city,' he said. About 27 percent of the county's students are low-income, a proportion that has increased slightly in recent years. While many are black and Hispanic, about 15 percent of the low-income students are white. Moreover, more than 40 percent of the district's black students are working- and middle-class, and not poor. Wake County has used many strategies to limit the proportion of low-income students in schools to 40 percent. For example, magnet schools lure many suburban parents to the city. Betty Trevino lives in Fuquay-Varina, a town in southern Wake County. Ms. Trevino drives her son, Eric, 5, to and from the Joyner Elementary School, where he goes to kindergarten. Students are taught in English and Spanish, and global themes are emphasized at the school, which is north of downtown Raleigh, more than 20 miles from the Trevinos' home. With traffic, the trip takes 45 minutes each way. 'I think it works,' she said of her drive halfway across the county, 'because it's such a good school.' Many low-income children are bused to suburban schools. While some of their parents are unhappy with the length of the rides, some also said they were happy with their child's school. 'I think it's ridiculous,' LaToya Mangum said of the 55 minutes that her son Gabriel, 7, spends riding a bus to the northern reaches of Wake County, where he is in second grade. On the other hand, she said, 'So far, I do like the school.' The neighborhood school has been redefined, with complex logistics and attendance maps that can resemble madly gerrymandered Congressional districts. The Swift Creek Elementary School, in southwest Raleigh near the city line, draws most of its students from within two miles of the school, in both the city and suburbs. But students also come to Swift Creek from four widely scattered areas in low-income sections of south and southeastern Raleigh; some live 6 to 8 miles from the school, while others are as far as 12 miles away. Ela Browder lives in Cary, an affluent, sprawling suburb, but each morning she puts her 6-year-old son, Michael, on a bus for a short ride across the city line to Swift Creek. 'We're very happy with the school,' Ms. Browder said. 'The children are very enriched by it. I think it's the best of both worlds.' Of the county's 139 elementary, middle and high schools, all but 22 are within the 40 percent guideline, according to the district's data. Some are only a few percentage points above the guideline, while others are significantly higher. The overwhelming majority of the 120,000 children in the district go either to a local school or a school of their choice, officials said. Slightly more than 85 percent of students attend a school within five miles of home and another 12 percent or so voluntarily attend magnet or year-round schools. Although the figures can be calculated many ways, Mr. McNeal says about 2.5 percent - or about 3,000 children - are assigned to schools for economic balance or to accommodate the district's growth by filling new schools or easing overcrowding in existing ones. Most of those bused for economic diversity tend to be low-income, he said, mirroring the pattern of busing for racial integration in which black students were sent to white schools. A school board election will take place in October. While the board has continued to endorse economic integration, some supporters worry that that could change one day. 'It's not easy and it can be very contentious in the community,' said Walter C. Sherlin, who retired two years ago as an associate superintendent. 'Is it worth doing? Look at 91 percent at or above grade level. Look at 139 schools, all of them successful. I think the answer is obvious.'

Subject: At Google, Workers Are Placing Bets From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 11:34:23 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/26/business/26google.html?ex=1285387200&en=c171e8934faa7fc1&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 26, 2005 At Google, the Workers Are Placing Their Bets By IAN AUSTEN Like all search engines, Google helps people sort through information from the past. But a new service, being used inside the company, tries to forecast the future. Google has created a predictive market system, basically a way for its employees to bet on the likelihood of possible events. Such markets have long been used to predict world events, like election results. Intrade, part of the Trade Exchange Network, allows people to bet on elections, stock market indexes and even the weather, for example. In Google's system, employees can bet on how the company will perform in the future, forecasting things like product introduction dates and new office openings. It was devised under a program that allows engineers to spend one day a week on a project of their choice. To help develop the system, Google consulted Hal R. Varian, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. Professor Varian (who also writes the Economic Scene column for The New York Times) said that the final product was not entirely what he anticipated. 'I was a little surprised,' Professor Varian said. 'I expected this to be accurate because there's a lot of literature and experience with these systems. But this has been even better than I expected.' Google has not offered precise data on the system's accuracy, but a chart posted on the company's blog last week showed that, in the words of its accompanying entry, prices set for events through employees' wagering were a 'pretty close' indication of the probability of events. The market is based on the idea that a price established for an event will reflect bettors' consensus of the likelihood that it will happen. Thus, something priced at 20 cents should happen 20 percent of the time. The system accepts bets in 10-cent increments up to a dollar (no actual money is involved). On its blog, Google compares the market to its search engine software. 'Our search engine works well because it aggregates information dispersed across the Web, and our internal predictive markets are based on the same principle: Googlers from across the company contribute knowledge and opinions which are aggregated into a forecast by the market,' the blog said. Professor Varian, who has consulted with Google on other projects, attributes the higher-than-expected levels of accuracy to the large number of employees participating. In general, the higher the number of bettors in such systems, the better the predictions. There is one issue, however, for which Google's market offers no prediction. 'It's a fun thing,' said Professor Varian. 'Now one of the things we're thinking about is what to do with it.'

Subject: Times password From: Tina Eden To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 11:21:55 (EDT) Email Address: tinamh23@hotmail.com Message: Hi Bobby and thanks for doing all you can to keep this site going. Is it possible to simply cut and paste PK's columns in the usual place so we can continue reading and commenting as before? People cut and paste articles for one another all the time and send them via emails...is a website so much different? Tina Eden

Subject: Re: Times password From: Bobby To: Tina Eden Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 21:55:52 (EDT) Email Address: robert@pkarchive.org Message: The problem is that Paul Krugman asked me to stop posting the columns, and I promised him I'd stop. I can't break that promise. In addition, readers copying the full text of the Krugman NYT article on the message board is not allowed, as I said on the Updates page. Allowing readers to copy the full text would violate the spirit of my promise. Regarding quoting a Paul Krugman NYT column on message board: In terms of intermediate situations on the message board, where you post something quoting the column and are not sure whether you are violating the rules, I'll try to use my best judgment on a case-by-case basis. I will erase those that I think are in violation and obviously leave the legitimate ones alone. I would never ban you or penalize you or anything like that. The worst that can happen is that your post would be erased. I'm sorry about all this.

Subject: Krugman From: C Selby To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 09:37:07 (EDT) Email Address: wolf10539@netscape.net Message: Well - I guess I'll get my Krugman articles from the newspaper from now on. Can't believe we are supposed to pay to read an article.

Subject: TimesSelect From: Emma To: C Selby Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 10:16:43 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Those who subscribe to the New York Times have free access to all of TimesSelect, otherwise a subscription may well be called for.

Subject: Re: Bobby, there may be another way From: Erica To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 10:30:55 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Bobby, Over at DKos, a diarist took excerts of PK's column (very large passages, almost the whole thing) and made comments on them between the passages. It was all done in the name of blogging. It would seem to me that in your column section, which you could change to blog section, you could almost do the same thing. I mean people use huge chunks of newspaper articles all the time in order to comment on them. So why can't you do the same thing? I mean, you could leave out say a paragraph or two, and technically you wouldn't be posting the whole article. But I would imagine that if you purchase the article, it's yours. And if you wish to blog on it and share it with your readers, who's to say that's wrong? I mean, how can you intelligently discuss something that your readers are unaware of????? If it worked over at Dailykos, why won't that work here?

Subject: Re: Bobby, there may be another way From: Bobby To: Erica Date Posted: Wed, Sep 28, 2005 at 21:42:20 (EDT) Email Address: robert@pkarchive.org Message: Hi Erica, Thank you for the suggestion. The problem is that Paul asked me not to post the column anymore, and I told him yes. If I adopted the above suggestion, I think that I would be going agaist my word. Moreover, I'm not sure if the Times has noticed this particular Daily Kos poster (there are hundreds or more diaries per day, as I understand it), and, if they do notice him, I imagine they will make him take it down, or I imagaine at least they will not let him do it on a regular basis. The Times has already noticed this site, so I think the Times would make me stop if I did this even once. I do appreciate your suggestion though, and thank you.

Subject: Excerpts From: Emma To: Erica Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 11:37:39 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Excerpts from the restricted sections of the Wall Street Journal and Economist and Financial Times and New Yorker and New York Review of Books... are readily used.

Subject: Re: Excerpts From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 16:22:52 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: When you copy from one source it is called plagiarism. When you copy from a few sources it is called research.... go figure. Now for people like me living in Canada... coming across his articles won't be as easy. And I'm not particularly prepared to pay for the entire NY Times just to read his article.

Subject: Re:It's not plagarism From: Erica To: Mik Date Posted: Tues, Sep 27, 2005 at 07:52:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: It's not plagarism unless you claim the work is yours. You can blog the column by excerpting huge chunks of it.

Subject: Re: Excerpts From: derek To: Mik Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 17:23:07 (EDT) Email Address: zandor2020@yahoo.com Message: I do not have the money to read only krugman so this will be the end. any success with the library access for those who live far away from new york? Krugman has been an oasis of sanity during the last few years of moronic cognitive dissoance supporting the chimp in chief.

Subject: Is It Better to Buy or Rent? From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 08:35:36 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/25/realestate/25cov.html?ex=1285300800&en=64f665177066bc85&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss September 25, 2005 Is It Better to Buy or Rent? By DAVID LEONHARDT THE thought has occurred to just about everybody who owns a home in a hot housing market: maybe it's time to cash out. The hard part is figuring out how to do so. Only a few families can actually pick up their life in, say, California and move it to Nebraska. The other option - renting - has long been derided as the equivalent of throwing money away. But renting might deserve another look right now. After five years in which rents have barely budged while house prices in New York, Washington, Los Angeles and elsewhere have doubled, renting has become a surprisingly smart option for many people who never would have considered it before. Owning a home often ties up hundreds of thousands of dollars that might be invested more safely and more lucratively elsewhere over the next decade. And while real estate brokers may hate to acknowledge it, home ownership involves its own versions of throwing money away, like property taxes and the costs of borrowing. Add it all up - which The New York Times did, in an analysis of the major costs and benefits of owning and renting, including tax breaks - and owning a home today is more expensive than renting in much of the Northeast, Florida and California. Only if prices rise well above their already lofty levels will home ownership turn out to be the good deal that it is widely assumed to be. In the Bay Area of California, a typical family that buys a $1 million house - which is average in some towns - will spend about $5,000 a month to live there, according to the Times analysis. The family could rent a similar house for about $2,500, real estate records show, and could pay part of that bill with the interest earned by the money that was not used for a down payment. This gaping difference helped persuade Eloise Christensen to sell her century-old Victorian cottage in downtown Larkspur, Calif., for $1.05 million this year. Now she rents a two-story house in Stinson Beach for $2,400 a month. From her living room, she can sip tea and watch the waves from the Pacific Ocean. 'It just seems out of control,' said Ms. Christensen, 43, a massage therapist and graphic designer. 'It didn't seem to me that the market was going to be able to sustain these high prices.' There are obviously benefits to home ownership beyond the financial, like peace of mind and a feeling of stability. Owners cannot have their home yanked away by a landlord who has decided to move back in. Owners can also change the color of their living room walls or fix a draft seeping through their windows without asking permission. Surrounding her Larkspur cottage, Ms. Christensen had built a garden with rosemary, lavender and boxwood hedges to complement the pear and fig trees already there. She is not doing anything like that in Stinson Beach. Combine these benefits with the transaction costs of a house sale, and renting probably does not make sense for most people who already own their home and feel settled in it. But the calculation can look quite different for those who are considering a move anyway or who do not yet own a home. At the very least, renters in boom markets, who often lament that they are wasting money, should know that their choice has as powerful an economic rationale as buying does right now. 'I am a proponent of buying,' said Tchaka Owen, 37, a loan officer and licensed real-estate agent in Miami who is renting a two-bedroom apartment overlooking the bay there. 'But you can get so much more for your money, renting instead of buying. We're paying half the amount we would be paying if we owned this place.' In Manhattan, 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom apartments on the Upper East Side now rent for about $3,700 a month. Buying a similar apartment costs around $1.1 million, which can translate into monthly payments of $6,000 or so. To determine the cost of renting, the Times analysis added monthly rent and renters' insurance. For owning, the analysis included typical costs for home insurance, major repairs, property taxes and mortgage payments, as well as the tax deductions they create. Renters were given credit for a small return - about 4 percent, after taxes - on the money they could have invested in bonds or stocks instead of spending it on a down payment and closing costs. Buyers received credit for the portion of the mortgage they were paying off, as opposed to the interest costs. When the net costs of owning are less than those of renting, as is the case in Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis and much of the middle of the country, the argument for buying becomes overwhelming. So long as home prices do not fall sharply, home buyers in these places will do much better than renters. But when owning is more expensive every month, buyers are betting entirely on price appreciation. For new home buyers, prices in New York would need to rise roughly another 13 percent over the next five years for the average buyer to do better than the average renter over that span. In Northern California, where the gap between house prices and rents is largest, home values would need to go up about 19 percent by 2010. Over the next decade, the break-even increase is about 25 percent in New York and 40 percent in California. Such increases have been easily achieved in the recent past. But even economists who do not consider the real estate market to be in a bubble predict that price gains will slow. Other forecasters argue that values will fall, as they did on the coasts in the early 1990's, or be stuck near their current levels for years to come. No matter who is right, the buy-versus-rent debate is a closer call than it has been in years. 'If you believe you'll be moving in the next four or five years, I'd rent,' said Thomas Z. Lys, an accounting professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University . 'If you're a long-termer, I still would buy.' The single biggest misconception about home ownership, some brokers and economists say, might revolve around tax deductions. Many people seem to believe that buying a home can actually save them money because the interest on their mortgage is tax deductible. But all that deduction does is reduce the cost of borrowing the money - a cost that would not exist if the family were not buying the home. Families spend about six years in a house, on average, according to the National Association of Realtors. In that time, the interest on a $600,000 mortgage would add up to about $120,000, even at today's low rates and even after the tax deduction, according to National City Corporation, a large lender. 'Don't be buying a house because you think you're saving on the taxes,' said Frank Borges LLosa, owner of FranklyRealty.com, a brokerage in Arlington, Va. 'You'll save even more by not buying and renting.' Mr. LLosa added: 'I'm not saying not to buy. I'm saying don't buy just for the tax reasons.' Many homeowners also do not receive the full deductions from home ownership. In the Northeast and California, homeowners now have so many deductions that some must pay the alternative minimum tax. This tax effectively wipes out part of their property-tax deduction, further cutting into the benefits of home ownership. Other homeowners do not itemize their deductions or, if they do so, end up with total deductions only a little larger than the standard deduction that the government offers to all taxpayers, even renters. 'A lot of people hugely overvalue the mortgage deduction,' said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal group in Washington, 'because they compare it to no deduction instead of comparing it to the standard deduction.' Mr. Baker is one of the avant garde renters. He and his wife sold their condominium in Washington last year for $445,000 and now rent a similar one nearby for $2,200 a month. The Times analysis made a number of assumptions favorable to buyers, like giving them full credit for the deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes, noted Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy .com, a research company. Still, the monthly costs of buying were more expensive than those for renting in any market where the price of a typical house was more than 20 times larger than the annual rent to live in it. In the Bay Area, this 'rent ratio' exceeds 33. In New York, Boston, Los Angeles and Miami, it is just above 25. A typical four-bedroom house in Brookline, Mass., for example, costs about $1.2 million to buy and $4,500 a month to rent, according to Chobee Hoy Associates Real Estate, a brokerage there. At 20, Washington is right near the cutoff. But renters who live in apartment buildings, like Mr. Baker, often get an extra benefit: some portion of their utilities bill is typically covered by the building's owner. Mr. Owen, the loan officer in Miami, and his girlfriend, Polly Thompson, pay $1,700 a month for a top-floor apartment that has views of both the city's skyline and the Atlantic Ocean. After talking to brokers, he said he thought that the apartment would sell for close to $650,000, giving it a rent ratio of more than 30. 'It's obvious,' he said, 'that renting is such a better deal.' But to many people, the psychological benefits of buying are almost impossible to overcome. Owning makes them feel that they have achieved the American dream, or it gives them the secure sense that, if nothing else, they have a tangible asset where they can sleep at night. Those are nice feelings, indeed. The question is how much they are worth to you.

Subject: Re: Is It Better to Buy or Rent? From: Mik To: Emma Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 16:41:05 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: Fantastic article... thanks. Say uhmm.. you wouldn't by any slight chance be able to post Krugman's articles (from the NY libary) in the future?

Subject: Many More People Are House Poor From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 06:42:29 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/25/realestate/25sacrifice.html September 25, 2005 With Higher Prices, Many More People Are House Poor By PATRICK O'GILFOIL HEALY BECAUSE of the nationwide surge in housing prices, many middle-income families just can't afford the average house price anymore. But they are buying anyway, and making due by cutting household budgets and tightening belts in myriad ways. They are forgoing that long-planned vacation to Europe. They are bypassing their favorite Thai restaurant and cooking dinner at home. People are clipping coupons, shopping at discount supermarkets and pulling their children out of private schools. 'It's stressful,' said David Gentry, a pharmaceutical salesman who recently obtained a loan to buy a $695,000 town house near San Francisco. 'I wonder, How do I qualify for this money? Are they stupid? It's not like I'm the president of Hewlett Packard. We're just trying to make ends meet.' The family had been renting an apartment from Mr. Gentry's father-in-law, paying a pittance in rent, before they bought. Now, Mr. Gentry said, housing costs eat up about half his take-home pay, meaning he and his wife can no longer afford a $600-a-month preschool for their 17-month-old and 4-year-old sons. The family moved into their town house condo overlooking the Pacific this May, and began paying a $4,100 monthly mortgage. To cover it, Mr. Gentry pared down contributions to his 401(k) account, and his wife, who now stays home with the children, is planning to return to work.'It's out of control,' Mr. Gentry said. 'We're penny-pinching things we would have normally not thought twice about. We're making it happen, but for how long?' Bankers suggest that families spend 25 to 30 percent of their gross income on housing, but many people, especially on the coasts, easily exceed that level. The burden of housing prices is the most pronounced in California, where 40 percent of homeowners spend more than 30 percent of their income to cover their mortgage costs, according to 2003 census data, the most recent numbers available. About 30 percent of all Americans spend that much. In the 1970's, an average family spent half its income on its mortgage, health care, insurance, taxes and car payments, according to Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor who writes about consumer spending. Today, families spend about 75 percent of their incomes on those essentials, largely because of higher housing costs. One in 10 Americans spends more than half their income on housing costs, and those rates are higher in hot markets. Across the country, the median price of a single-family home has climbed 29 percent in two years, rising to $218,600 this year from $170,000 in 2003, according to the National Association of Realtors. At the same time, median family incomes rose 8 percent. The association's Housing Affordability Index dropped over the same time period, falling 15 percent in the last two years. Right now, it ranks the Midwest as the most affordable part of the country, and the West as the least. In the expensive markets, some people spend 50 to 75 percent of their monthly salaries on home payments. 'Most people out there would say they spent too much, across the board,' said Rick Harper, a credit counselor in San Francisco. For now, Americans seem to be staying aloft, spending less elsewhere and making the mortgage their first priority. Though foreclosures have jumped recently in areas like Massachusetts, Philadelphia and Chicago, a June survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association, the most recent available, found that foreclosure and delinquency rates had actually dropped 7 percentage points from 2004. But Ms. Warren, the Harvard author, said Americans have put themselves in a precarious spot. They have overspent and taken out adjustable-rate and interest-only mortgages, gambling that housing values will rise while interest rates and the job market hold steady. 'People think homeownership is the ultimate stability,' Ms. Warren said. 'Today, it has become the cement life raft. The home itself is sinking the family.' The surge in prices is not limited to hot zones like California, where the median home price is $540,900, or New York City, where the median price is $700,000. It has struck people in Pasadena, Md. (median home value: about $170,000), where Julie Judy's family recently bought a $275,000 home. They now scrape by on a budget that leaves them $100 to spare each month. Ms. Judy and her husband, Michael, both in their early 30's, began looking for a new home big enough to give their 3-year-old son space to play and grow. They hoped for something in the $150,000 range, but quickly learned that even wrecks cost $200,000. 'When they said the payment's going to be $1,800, I said, 'Oh my God,' ' Ms. Judy said. 'It kills me. It kills me.' The family cut out some comforts, forgoing a pool table, big-screen television and new furniture for their basement. They opted not to install a telephone line, and only use cellphones. They traded their Ford Expedition for a Dodge Caravan for a net savings of eight miles per gallon and $120 in monthly gasoline costs. And they cut up their credit cards. 'If we can't pay cash for it,' Ms. Judy wrote in an e-mail message, 'we won't buy it.' In San Mateo, Calif., the burdens of first-time homeownership have plucked Chris Cavigioli right out of the sky. Last November, Mr. Cavigioli, 43, who markets semiconductors, and his new wife, Kari, began searching for a $600,000 house where they would have enough room to start a family. They found nothing that even came close. So the couple raised their price ceiling beyond San Mateo's median of $656,095, then raised it again, and settled on a home for around $875,000. In a standard 30-year mortgage, the $875,000 house would cost an additional $1,445 every month, or an extra $17,340 a year, when compared with what their payments would have been for a $600,000 house. For the Cavigiolis, the pricier house has meant more dinners at home, where Mr. Cavigioli exposes his carnivorous wife to his vegetarian cooking. There have been fewer trips to see relatives living in Asia and Boston. And Mr. Cavigioli, who flies Cessna Skyhawks in his free time, had to give up lessons and put off pursuing his pilot's license. 'That's something that's going to have to wait for a rainy day,' he said. For now, 'We're living on faith.' One hundred miles away, in a rough-edged Sacramento neighborhood, Yaseen Nazir and his wife are dealing with the consequences of waiting too long to join the parade. The couple, who are technology consultants, stayed in their $900 rental while prices soared, then this year decided to buy a home. 'I thought, realistically, it would have been nice to get something for around $100,000, but you can't even buy a trailer for $100,000,' Mr. Nazir said. 'We were hoping for around $300,000, but there's nothing to find. We tried everything. We just said, It's now or never. It just keeps going up.' Eventually, the couple bought a four-bedroom house for $445,000. Most mortgage experts recommend that people's homes cost no more than three times their annual salary. By that standard, the Nazirs were $100,000 over budget. They had signed up to spend more than half their monthly income on their home. So now, they are cutting costs everywhere they can. They endured the summer without air-conditioning. They eat at their parents' houses. They read books beneath Wal-Mart lamps and lounge on 'pleather' couches left over from Mr. Nazir's days as a computer-science major at the University of California, Davis. The couple have moved in, but they cannot afford to make the newly built house feel like their own. They have yet to put up a fence in their backyard or pour concrete for the patio. And they gave up their weekends skiing and jettisoned the overnight trips to Lake Tahoe and Los Angeles. They gave up going to their favorite $25-a-plate Persian and Moroccan restaurants. For lunch, Mr. Nazir forgoes trips out with co-workers and eats 'cans of tuna and microwaveable stuff' at his desk. 'We basically decided, How many days can we starve?' Mr. Nazir said. 'When can we go to the thrift store? It's tough times.' In markets where house prices have risen rapidly, they are not unusual. 'They're overbuying, and there are extreme choices that need to be made,' said Patricia Lynch, a credit counselor with ClearPoint Financial Solutions in Baltimore. 'People can get very creative.' A 58-year-old woman in Fresno, Calif., said she is dedicating more than half her teacher's salary to the mortgage on her $230,000 house, and is so financially strapped that she has cut back on tithes to her Catholic parish. Credit counselors say their clients are piling their day-to-day debts onto credit cards, draining their contributions to retirement accounts and selling their housewares at resale shops to make their mortgages. One of Ms. Lynch's clients cut her phone lines and Internet access. Another sold off $300,000 in antiques, rugs and crystal baubles. 'She's liquidating,' Ms. Lynch said. 'She's using that money to pay off debt.'

Subject: Miami's Model for Condo Sales Spreads From: Emma To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 06:40:43 (EDT) Email Address: Not Provided Message: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/25/realestate/25miami.html September 25, 2005 Miami's Model for Condo Sales Spreads to Las Vegas and New York By ANNA BAHNEY MIAMI has long been known for models of the lean and leggy variety, but more recently, with the appearance of tall, slender buildings along Biscayne Bay, yet another model is emerging from the backdrop of pink sunsets and blue water. The so-called Miami Model describes the way some of these apartments are being sold, a method that is changing the way real estate development is done in Florida and beyond. It results in churning apartments more often and more quickly and giving more of the transaction fees to developers. With an in-house sales team that charges a fee, a developer sells a unit to an investor who in turn sells to a buyer who may or may not ultimately use the condo. This flip before closing has become an integral part of the condo market in places like South Florida and Las Vegas. Now developers and marketers in New York - who never like to think they follow any other city's lead - are flirting with the model. 'It is a market that is more evolved than our market here in the city,' said Christopher Mathieson, a managing partner at JC DeNiro and Associates, a real estate agency in Manhattan. 'They are selling like crazy in Miami. Las Vegas has taken the Miami Model and run with it.' Mr. Mathieson has three projects in Manhattan that are going to use this model; two will be coming to market in the spring and he will be doing some sales in the fall for the third. Many real estate professionals don't think this sales model can work in Manhattan because the price to invest in New York is so high, but Mr. Mathieson said he is convinced it can. In Miami, which has led the country in sales of preconstruction condos, 60,000 units are planned in the next five years and about 19,700 are under construction in Dade County right now. While 'flipping' has become a dirty word in Florida, developers find it appealing, and profitable, to control the flip, rather than to leave all those profits to others. For buyers - investors or users - it may help to protect the flow of properties to the market. One Miami, an 896-unit condominium developed by the Related Companies, is nearing the end of its resale program, in which about half of the buyers are reselling, through the developer, apartments that don't yet exist. 'The first person purchased two and half years ago,' said Valeria Lugo, a sales associate with Related Cervera Realty Services, who works at the building. 'Then eight months to a year later, we offer the option to sell their unit and they can assign the contract to another buyer.' The percentages vary depending on the developer, but at One Miami there is a 6 percent commission to the sales agent and a 0.25 percent fee for the transfer, which goes to the developer. Developer's fees can range from 0.25 to 10 percent. 'They don't have to do the resale through us,' Ms. Lugo said. 'But we do a lot of advertising and marketing.' Before developers decided to be the focus for resales, speculators would close on a condo and sell it immediately, or before closing, flip the contract with the help of an outside broker. Alicia Cervera Lamadrid, the president of Related Cervera Realty Services, said that she had been using this model for about seven years. 'In the old days it would take a couple of years to sell all the units,' Mrs. Cervera Lamadrid said. 'But now it can take a couple of weeks or a couple of months.' Jack Winston, an analyst with Goodkin Consulting, a real estate consulting firm in South Florida, said that the Miami Model works best when a developer has several parts to its organization, including a sales arm, and when there are multiple projects at various stages. 'Related is the best example in the country,' Mr. Winston said. 'With Related Cervera Realty there is an in-house sales office. They are constantly opening new projects, so they can move buyers to another project that is coming out of the ground. They also create a reputation and a following with buyers because each time they have done this - with the combination of Related and Related Cervera - the investors have made money.' Mr. Winston sees the long-term effect of this kind of sales strategy by developers as a bit of a Ponzi scheme, though. People coming in on the preconstruction phase are making money so long as other people are coming in. 'The scheme falls apart when you don't have enough people to get the money to pay to the last guy back,' Mr. Winston said. 'What happens when you don't get enough investors to come in and play? There certainly aren't enough real buyers.' Ms. Lugo said the resale apartments at One Miami are being sold at a 35 to 40 percent increase over the preconstruction price, with two-bedroom apartments now between $450,000 and $600,000 and three-bedrooms from $650,000 to $1.2 million. At another Related building, Plaza on Brickell, resales began on July 1 after it sold out in the summer of 2004, and about 200 of the 1,000 units are currently available again. Ms. Lugo said she expected another 10 percent of the units to come into the resale program before the sales are closed. 'There is no one taking a loss from doing resales,' said Carlo Gambino, a managing partner of Carson Realty Group in Miami. For the developers, Mr. Gambino said, instead of losing out on an opportunity to generate more revenue, they are taking part in it. The initial buyer is making a profit on the value of the full price of the property based on a 20 percent investment. Even the second buyer, he said, will get a better price than if the first buyer had to account for closing costs. 'I don't see any party that will suffer from it,' he said. He hasn't: Mr. Gambino made a 300 percent profit on his 20 percent down payment at One Miami through the resale program. A similar scenario is playing out in Las Vegas, where more than 90 condo projects with about 67,000 units are in the planning stages and at least 19 are under construction. At the Panorama Towers, developed by Sasson Hallier Properties, resales on the first of three towers will begin in December. Prices for that are not determined yet, but pre-construction condos in the third tower are $450,000 to $1.5 million. 'We went down to Miami and saw that this is a great way to protect the value of the building,' said Paul Scaringe, the vice president of sales for Panorama Towers. 'With this program you can control the amount of inventory that is out there at any given time, supply and demand will dictate the pricing.' Bradley F. Hunter, director of the South Florida region for Metrostudy, a residential real estate market research firm in West Palm Beach, said this model began when investors increased the price gain in new construction by paying any price, figuring it would go up. Developers began to restrict investors from flipping the contracts, only to find the day after closing that high numbers of units were on the market, with the investor rather than the developer making the profit. 'That pushed this resale activity,' Mr. Hunter said. 'Then developers said, why should we leave that money sitting on the table? And they started their own resale programs.' Developers in South Florida are typically expected to sell half the units in a development before receiving financing for the project. With preconstruction buyers putting 10 percent down to reserve a condo and another 10 percent down, which can be used for construction costs, about the time building starts, it might seem that the Florida market is insulated from froth because projects have buyers before they are built. Mr. Hunter disagreed. 'Those 50 percent who have bought preconstruction are investors,' he said. 'They are perpetuating the froth and in a way disguising it. The developer can say, 'I'm sold out.' Really? Are you sold out to people who are going to move in? Or people who are going to immediately put those on the market?' 'There is phantom supply,' Mr. Hunter added. 'It is not visible to the naked eye. That is why developers have to be very cautious.' In New York they often are. Real estate developers and marketers have their own established methods and ideas about the way real estate development is done in other parts of the country. 'In Miami you can do what you want,' said Michael Shvo, president of Shvo Marketing, a real estate firm in Manhattan. 'It's the Wild West. So is Las Vegas.' Elan Padeh, the chief executive and president of the Developers Group, a Brooklyn-based real estate firm, said that developers would love to move buyers' contracts with the fluidity of those in Miami. 'If they were doing this much development in New York, there would be even more if they could do that,' he said. Both marketers sang the praises of the New York State attorney general, Eliot Spitzer - whose office must examine all condo offering plans - as well as state regulations that keep buyers' down payments in escrow, rather than allowing developers to use them for construction costs. But with the distinctly Miami-influenced financing plan by Frank J. Sciame, the developer behind the Santiago Calatrava building planned at 80 South Street, in which he is taking down-payments starting at $7 million before securing financing for 10 town houses ranging from $29 million to $59 million each, there are indications that the approach to new development in New York may be changing. With regard to the Miami Model of controlled resales, Bruce D. Friedberg, a lawyer specializing in real estate, said he was surprised it was not done more often in New York, explaining that usually the opposite is the rule, with developers strongly restricting resales of the condos until as much as a year after closing. Mr. Friedberg saw the effects of a resale program when he had some 35 clients who were among the initial purchasers at the Chelsea Mercantile, a renovated warehouse condominium on the West Side of Manhattan developed by Rockrose Developments, in 1999. The initial offering plan, dated May 20, 1999, said that the 354 units would sell out at $251.45 million. By the time the 11th amendment was submitted to the attorney general's office that November, the sell-out price was $307.61 million. 'The demand was unbelievable,' Kevin P. Singleton, senior vice president at Rockrose Development, said of the Chelsea Mercantile project. In one of the amendments, the developer offered to take back the contract and split the market price with the initial buyer. For example, a buyer who had purchased for $1 million could, through this amendment, assign the contract to the developer and split the profit on the apartment, which was going for $1.5 million, leaving $250,000 each for the developer and the first buyer. By keeping an ear to the track, Mr. Singleton said, his firm knew even a year after initial sales that they would still have a line around the block if units were available. 'We could have sold 10 times the number of units we had,' he said. 'Filing an amendment is the only requirement. There is a limited downside for the developer.' Brad Maione, the spokesman for the attorney general's office, said in an e-mail message that the office takes no official position on the merits of particular provisions in an offering plan. Assigning the contract can be beneficial, he said, because it allows buyers who are unable to close or no longer interested in buying to find a substitute purchaser and not loose their down payments. It is certainly not as easy to institute a resale program as in other cities, but with large-scale condo development planned for West Chelsea, and areas like the Williamsburg/Greenpoint waterfront in Brooklyn, investors moving from one preconstruction project to another could become more common in New York. It will if Mr. Mathieson has anything to do with it. 'You're inviting more people, including investors, to take on the risk until the end user gets to the building,' he said. 'The end user wants a product they can look at. The investor is there to take the risk.'

Subject: times select From: tom To: All Date Posted: Mon, Sep 26, 2005 at 04:22:33 (EDT) Email Address: tom@tom.com Message: it's possible to complain. write to the public editor at the times (public@nytimes.com), saying that it's short-sighted and narrow minded, at least in this country) to severely restrict the audience for well-informed left-wing voices. the paper has some public responsibility as well as one to its shareholders -